Clinical use of current polygenic risk scores may exacerbate health disparities

PopGenAdapt: Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation for Genotype-to-Phenotype Prediction in Underrepresented Populations

The lack of diversity in genomic datasets, currently skewed towards individuals of European ancestry, presents a challenge in developing inclusive biomedical models. The scarcity of such data is particularly evident in labeled datasets that include genomic data linked to electronic health records. To address this gap, this paper presents PopGenAdapt, a genotype-to-phenotype prediction model which adopts semi-supervised domain adaptation (SSDA) techniques originally proposed for computer vision. PopGenAdapt is designed to leverage the substantial labeled data available from individuals of European ancestry, as well as the limited labeled and the larger amount of unlabeled data from currently underrepresented populations. The method is evaluated in underrepresented populations from Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Hawaii for the prediction of several disease outcomes. The results suggest a significant improvement in the performance of genotype-to-phenotype models for these populations over state-of-the-art supervised learning methods, setting SSDA as a promising strategy for creating more inclusive machine learning models in biomedical research.Our code is available at https://github.com/AI-sandbox/PopGenAdapt.

Individual Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms Within Racially-Ethnically Diverse Youth: Associations with Polygenic Risk for Depression and Substance Use Intent and Perceived Harm

There are distinct individual trajectories of depressive symptoms across adolescence which are most often differentiated into low, moderate/stable, and high/increasing groups. Research has found genetic predisposition for depression associated with trajectories characterized by greater depressive symptoms. However, the majority of this research has been conducted in White youth. Moreover, a separate literature indicates that trajectories with elevated depressive symptoms can result in substance use. It is critical to identify depressive symptom trajectories, genetic predictors, and substance use outcomes in diverse samples in early adolescence to understand distinct processes and convey equitable benefits from research. Using data from the Adolescent Cognitive Brain Development Study (ABCD), we examined parent-reported depressive symptom trajectories within Black/African American (AA, n = 1783), White/European American (EA, n = 6179), and Hispanic/Latinx (LX, n = 2410) youth across four annual assessments in early adolescence (age 9-10 to 12-13). We examined racially/ethnically aligned polygenic scores (Dep-PGS) as predictors of trajectories as well as substance use intent and perceived substance use harm as outcomes at age 12-13. Differential trajectories were found in AA, EA, and LX youth but low and high trajectories were represented within each group. In EA youth, greater Dep-PGS were broadly associated with membership in trajectories with greater depressive symptoms. Genetic effects were not significant in AA and LX youth. In AA youth, membership in the low trajectory was associated with greater substance use intent. In EA youth, membership in trajectories with higher depressive symptoms was associated with greater substance use intent and less perceived harm. There were no associations between trajectories and substance use intent and perceived harm in LX youth. These findings indicate that there are distinct depressive symptom trajectories in AA, EA, and LX youth, accompanied by unique associations with genetic predisposition for depressive symptoms and substance use outcomes.

Genetic endowments for social capital: An investigation accounting for genetic nurturing effects

Despite social capital having been shown to be important for health and well-being, relatively little research has examined genetic determinants. Genetic endowments for education have been shown to influence human, financial, and health capital, but few studies have examined social capital, and those conducted have yet to account for genetic nurturing. We used the Add-Health data to study the effect of genetic endowments on individual social capital using the education polygenic score (PGS). We used sibling fixed effects models and controlled for the family environment to account for genetic nurturing. After accounting for the family environment, we found moderately large significant associations between the education PGS and volunteering, but associations with religious service attendance and number of friends were completely attenuated in sibling fixed effects models. These findings highlight that genetic endowments play an important role in influencing volunteering and the importance of accounting for genetic nurturing.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Polygenic Risk Score Associates With Atherosclerotic Plaque Characteristics at Autopsy

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for coronary artery disease (CAD) potentially improve cardiovascular risk prediction. However, their relationship with histopathologic features of CAD has never been examined systematically.

METHODS

From 4327 subjects referred to CVPath by the State of Maryland Office Chief Medical Examiner for sudden death between 1994 and 2015, 2455 cases were randomly selected for genotyping. We generated PRS from 291 known CAD risk loci. Detailed histopathologic examination of the coronary arteries was performed in all subjects. The primary study outcome measurements were histopathologic plaque features determining severity of atherosclerosis, including %stenosis, calcification, thin-cap fibroatheromas, and thrombotic CAD.

RESULTS

After exclusion of cases with insufficient DNA sample quality or with missing data, 954 cases (mean age, 48.8±14.7 years; 75.7% men) remained in the final study cohort. Subjects in the highest PRS quintile exhibited more severe atherosclerosis compared with subjects in the lowest quintile, with greater %stenosis (80.3%±27.0% versus 50.4%±38.7%; adjusted P<0.001) and a higher frequency of calcification (69.6% versus 35.8%; adjusted P=0.004) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (26.7% versus 9.5%; adjusted P=0.007). Even after adjustment for traditional CAD risk factors, subjects within the highest PRS quintile had higher odds of severe atherosclerosis (ie, ≥75% stenosis; adjusted odds ratio, 3.77 [95% CI, 2.10-6.78]; P<0.001) and plaque rupture (adjusted odds ratio, 4.05 [95% CI, 2.26-7.24]; P<0.001). Moreover, subjects within the highest quintile had higher odds of CAD-associated cause of death, especially among those aged ≤50 years (adjusted odds ratio, 4.08 [95% CI, 2.01-8.30]; P<0.001). No statistically significant associations were observed with plaque erosion after adjusting for covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first autopsy study investigating associations between PRS and atherosclerosis severity at the histopathologic level in subjects with sudden death. Our pathological analysis suggests PRS correlates with plaque burden and features of advanced atherosclerosis and may be useful as a method for CAD risk stratification, especially in younger subjects.

The Mexican Biobank Project promotes genetic discovery, inclusive science and local capacity building

Diversifying genotype-phenotype databases is essential to understanding complex trait and disease etiology across different environments and genetic ancestries. The rise of biobanks across the world is helping reveal the genetic and environmental architecture of multiple disease traits but the diversity they capture remains limited. To help close this gap, the Mexican Biobank (MXB) Project was recently generated, and has already revealed fine-scale genetic ancestries and demographic histories across the country, and their impact on trait-relevant genetic variation. This will help guide future genetic epidemiology and public health efforts, and has also improved polygenic prediction for several traits in Mexican populations compared with using data from other genome-wide association studies, such as the UK Biobank. The MXB illustrates the importance of transnational initiatives and funding calls that prioritize local leadership and capacity building to move towards inclusive genomic science.

Open Science Practices in Psychiatric Genetics: A Primer

Open science ensures that research is transparently reported and freely accessible for all to assess and collaboratively build on. Psychiatric genetics has led among the health sciences in implementing some open science practices in common study designs, such as replication as part of genome-wide association studies. However, thorough open science implementation guidelines are limited and largely not specific to data, privacy, and research conduct challenges in psychiatric genetics. Here, we present a primer of open science practices, including selection of a research topic with patients/nonacademic collaborators, equitable authorship and citation practices, design of replicable, reproducible studies, preregistrations, open data, and privacy issues. We provide tips for informative figures and inclusive, precise reporting. We discuss considerations in working with nonacademic collaborators and distributing research through preprints, blogs, social media, and accessible lecture materials. Finally, we provide extra resources to support every step of the research process.

Biomarker adoption in developmental science: A data-driven modelling of trends from 90 biomarkers across 20 years

Developmental scientists have adopted numerous biomarkers in their research to better understand the biological underpinnings of development, environmental exposures, and variation in long-term health. Yet, adoption patterns merit investigation given the substantial resources used to collect, analyse, and train to use biomarkers in research with infants and children. We document trends in use of 90 biomarkers between 2000 and 2020 from approximately 430,000 publications indexed by the Web of Science. We provide a tool for researchers to examine each of these biomarkers individually using a data-driven approach to estimate the biomarker growth trajectory based on yearly publication number, publication growth rate, number of author affiliations, National Institutes of Health dedicated funding resources, journal impact factor, and years since the first publication. Results indicate that most biomarkers fit a "learning curve" trajectory (i.e., experience rapid growth followed by a plateau), though a small subset decline in use over time.

Stratifying early-onset emotional disorders: using genetics to assess persistence in young people of European and South Asian ancestry

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety are the most common mental health problems in young people. Currently, clinicians are advised to wait before initiating treatment for young people with these disorders as many spontaneously remit. However, others develop recurrent disorder but this subgroup cannot be identified at the outset. We examined whether psychiatric polygenic scores (PGS) could help inform stratification efforts to predict those at higher risk of recurrence.

METHODS

Probable emotional disorder was examined in two UK population cohorts using the emotional symptoms subscale of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Those with emotional disorder at two or more time points between ages 5 and 25 years were classed as 'recurrent emotional disorder' (n = 1,643) and those with emotional disorder at one time point as having 'single episode emotional disorder' (n = 1,435, controls n = 8,715). We first examined the relationship between psychiatric PGS and emotional disorders in childhood and adolescence. Second, we tested whether psychiatric PGS added to predictor variables of known association with emotional disorder (neurodevelopmental comorbidity, special educational needs, family history of depression and socioeconomic status) when discriminating between single-episode and recurrent emotional disorder. Analyses were conducted separately in individuals of European and South Asian ancestry.

RESULTS

Probable emotional disorder was associated with higher PGS for major depressive disorder (MDD), anxiety, broad depression, ADHD and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in those of European ancestry. Higher MDD and broad depression PGS were associated with emotional disorder in people of South Asian ancestry. Recurrent, compared to single-episode, emotional disorder was associated with ASD and parental psychiatric history. PGS were not associated with episode recurrence, and PGS did not improve discrimination of recurrence when combined with clinical predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support the use of PGS as a tool to assess the likelihood of recurrence in young people experiencing their first episode of emotional disorder.

Germline Genetic Associations for Hepatobiliary Cancers

Hepatobiliary cancers (HBCs) include hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma, and gallbladder carcinoma, which originate from the liver, bile ducts, and gallbladder, respectively. They are responsible for a substantial burden of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Despite knowledge of risk factors and advancements in therapeutics and surgical interventions, the prognosis for most patients with HBC remains bleak. There is evidence from familial aggregation and case-control studies to suggest a familial risk component in HBC susceptibility. Recent progress in genomics research has led to the identification of germline variants including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in cancer-associated genes associated with HBC risk. These findings emerged from genome-wide association studies and next-generation sequencing techniques such as whole-exome sequencing. Patients with other cancer types, including breast, colon, ovarian, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, are recommended by guidelines to undergo germline genetic testing, but similar recommendations are lagging in HBC. This prompts the question of whether multi-gene panel testing should be integrated into clinical guidelines for HBC management. Here, we review the hereditary genetics of HBC, explore studies investigating SNPs and P/LP variants in HBC patients, discuss the clinical implications and potential for personalized treatments and impact on patient's family members, and conclude that additional studies are needed to examine how genetic testing can be applied clinically.

The accuracy of polygenic score models for anthropometric traits and Type II Diabetes in the Native Hawaiian Population

Polygenic scores (PGS) are promising in stratifying individuals based on the genetic susceptibility to complex diseases or traits. However, the accuracy of PGS models, typically trained in European- or East Asian-ancestry populations, tend to perform poorly in other ethnic minority populations, and their accuracies have not been evaluated for Native Hawaiians. Using body mass index, height, and type-2 diabetes as examples of highly polygenic traits, we evaluated the prediction accuracies of PGS models in a large Native Hawaiian sample from the Multiethnic Cohort with up to 5,300 individuals. We evaluated both publicly available PGS models or genome-wide PGS models trained in this study using the largest available GWAS. We found evidence of lowered prediction accuracies for the PGS models in some cases, particularly for height. We also found that using the Native Hawaiian samples as an optimization cohort during training did not consistently improve PGS performance. Moreover, even the best performing PGS models among Native Hawaiians would have lowered prediction accuracy among the subset of individuals most enriched with Polynesian ancestry. Our findings indicate that factors such as admixture histories, sample size and diversity in GWAS can influence PGS performance for complex traits among Native Hawaiian samples. This study provides an initial survey of PGS performance among Native Hawaiians and exposes the current gaps and challenges associated with improving polygenic prediction models for underrepresented minority populations.

Polygenic prediction of major depressive disorder and related traits in African ancestries UK Biobank participants

Introduction

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) over-represent European ancestries compared to the global population, neglecting all other ancestry groups and low-income nations. Consequently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) more accurately predict complex traits in Europeans than African Ancestries groups. Very few studies have looked at the transferability of European-derived PRS for behavioural and mental health phenotypes to non-Europeans. We assessed the comparative accuracy of PRS for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) trained on European and African Ancestries GWAS studies to predict MDD and related traits in African Ancestries participants from the UK Biobank.

Methods

UK Biobank participants were selected based on Principal component analysis (PCA) clustering with an African genetic similarity reference population and MDD was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) were computed using PRSice2 using either European or African Ancestries GWAS summary statistics.

Results

PRS trained on European ancestry samples (246,363 cases) predicted case control status in Africans of the UK Biobank with similar accuracies (190 cases, R2=2%) to PRS trained on far much smaller samples of African Ancestries participants from 23andMe, Inc. (5045 cases, R2=1.8%). This suggests that prediction of MDD status from Africans to Africans had greater efficiency per unit increase in the discovery sample size than prediction of MDD from Europeans to Africans. Prediction of MDD status in African UK Biobank participants using GWAS findings of causal risk factors from European ancestries was non-significant.

Conclusion

GWAS studies of MDD in European ancestries are an inefficient means of improving polygenic prediction accuracy in African samples.

Assessing the prediction of type 2 diabetes risk using polygenic and clinical risk scores in South Asian study populations

Background

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown high specificity and sensitivity in predicting type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk in Europeans. However, the PRS-driven information and its clinical significance in non-Europeans are underrepresented. We examined the predictive efficacy and transferability of PRS models using variant information derived from genome-wide studies of Asian Indians (AIs) (PRSAI) and Europeans (PRSEU) using 13,974 AI individuals.

Methods

Weighted PRS models were constructed and analyzed on 4602 individuals from the Asian Indian Diabetes Heart Study/Sikh Diabetes Study (AIDHS/SDS) as discovery/training and test/validation datasets. The results were further replicated in 9372 South Asian individuals from UK Biobank (UKBB). We also assessed the performance of each PRS model by combining data of the clinical risk score (CRS).

Results

Both genetic models (PRSAI and PRSEU) successfully predicted the T2D risk. However, the PRSAI revealed 13.2% odds ratio (OR) 1.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-1.97; p = 1.6 × 10-152] and 12.2% OR 1.38 (95% CI 1.30-1.46; p = 7.1 × 10-237) superior performance in AIDHS/SDS and UKBB validation sets, respectively. Comparing individuals of extreme PRS (ninth decile) with the average PRS (fifth decile), PRSAI showed about two-fold OR 20.73 (95% CI 10.27-41.83; p = 2.7 × 10-17) and 1.4-fold OR 3.19 (95% CI 2.51-4.06; p = 4.8 × 10-21) higher predictability to identify subgroups with higher genetic risk than the PRSEU. Combining PRS and CRS improved the area under the curve from 0.74 to 0.79 in PRSAI and 0.72 to 0.75 in PRSEU.

Conclusion

Our data suggest the need for extending genetic and clinical studies in varied ethnic groups to exploit the full clinical potential of PRS as a risk prediction tool in diverse study populations.

Meta-Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains the leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Recent advances in large-scale genome-wide association studies have highlighted the potential of genetic risk, captured as polygenic risk scores (PRS), in clinical prevention. However, the current clinical utility of PRS models is limited to identifying high-risk populations based on the top percentiles of genetic susceptibility. While some studies have attempted integrative prediction using genetic and non-genetic factors, many of these studies have been cross-sectional and focused solely on risk stratification. Our primary objective in this study was to integrate unmodifiable (age / genetics) and modifiable (clinical / biometric) risk factors into a prospective prediction framework which also produces actionable and personalized risk estimates for the purpose of CAD prevention in a heterogenous adult population. Thus, we present an integrative, omnigenic, meta-prediction framework that effectively captures CAD risk subgroups, primarily distinguished by degree and nature of genetic risk, with distinct risk reduction profiles predicted from standard clinical interventions. Initial model development considered ~ 2,000 predictive features, including demographic data, lifestyle factors, physical measurements, laboratory tests, medication usage, diagnoses, and genetics. To power our meta-prediction approach, we stratified the UK Biobank into two primary cohorts: 1) a prevalent CAD cohort used to train baseline and prospective predictive models for contributing risk factors and diagnoses, and 2) an incident CAD cohort used to train the final CAD incident risk prediction model. The resultant 10-year incident CAD risk model is composed of 35 derived meta-features from models trained on the prevalent risk cohort, most of which are predicted baseline diagnoses with multiple embedded PRSs. This model achieved an AUC of 0.81 and macro-averaged F1-score of 0.65, outperforming standard clinical scores and prior integrative models. We further demonstrate that individualized risk reduction profiles can be derived from this model, with genetic risk mediating the degree of risk reduction achieved by standard clinical interventions.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of blood pressure traits and hypertension in sub-Saharan African populations: an AWI-Gen study

Most hypertension-related genome-wide association studies (GWASs) focus on non-African populations, despite hypertension (a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease) being highly prevalent in Africa. The AWI-Gen study GWAS meta-analysis for blood pressure (BP)-related traits (systolic and diastolic BP, pulse pressure, mean-arterial pressure and hypertension) from three sub-Saharan African geographic regions (N = 10,775), identifies two novel genome-wide significant signals (p < 5E-08): systolic BP near P2RY1 (rs77846204; intergenic variant, p = 4.95E-08) and pulse pressure near LINC01256 (rs80141533; intergenic variant, p = 1.76E-08). No genome-wide signals are detected for the AWI-Gen GWAS meta-analysis with previous African-ancestry GWASs (UK Biobank (African), Uganda Genome Resource). Suggestive signals (p < 5E-06) are observed for all traits, with 29 SNPs associating with more than one trait and several replicating known associations. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) developed from studies on different ancestries have limited transferability, with multi-ancestry PRS providing better prediction. This study provides insights into the genetics of BP variation in African populations.

Gene-metabolite annotation with shortest reactional distance enhances metabolite genome-wide association studies results

Metabolite genome-wide association studies (mGWAS) have advanced our understanding of the genetic control of metabolite levels. However, interpreting these associations remains challenging due to a lack of tools to annotate gene-metabolite pairs beyond the use of conservative statistical significance threshold. Here, we introduce the shortest reactional distance (SRD) metric, drawing from the comprehensive KEGG database, to enhance the biological interpretation of mGWAS results. We applied this approach to three independent mGWAS, including a case study on sickle cell disease patients. Our analysis reveals an enrichment of small SRD values in reported mGWAS pairs, with SRD values significantly correlating with mGWAS p values, even beyond the standard conservative thresholds. We demonstrate the utility of SRD annotation in identifying potential false negatives and inaccuracies within current metabolic pathway databases. Our findings highlight the SRD metric as an objective, quantitative and easy-to-compute annotation for gene-metabolite pairs, suitable to integrate statistical evidence to biological networks.

Pervasive correlations between causal disease effects of proximal SNPs vary with functional annotations and implicate stabilizing selection

The genetic architecture of human diseases and complex traits has been extensively studied, but little is known about the relationship of causal disease effect sizes between proximal SNPs, which have largely been assumed to be independent. We introduce a new method, LD SNP-pair effect correlation regression (LDSPEC), to estimate the correlation of causal disease effect sizes of derived alleles between proximal SNPs, depending on their allele frequencies, LD, and functional annotations; LDSPEC produced robust estimates in simulations across various genetic architectures. We applied LDSPEC to 70 diseases and complex traits from the UK Biobank (average N=306K), meta-analyzing results across diseases/traits. We detected significantly nonzero effect correlations for proximal SNP pairs (e.g., -0.37±0.09 for low-frequency positive-LD 0-100bp SNP pairs) that decayed with distance (e.g., -0.07±0.01 for low-frequency positive-LD 1-10kb), varied with allele frequency (e.g., -0.15±0.04 for common positive-LD 0-100bp), and varied with LD between SNPs (e.g., +0.12±0.05 for common negative-LD 0-100bp) (because we consider derived alleles, positive-LD and negative-LD SNP pairs may yield very different results). We further determined that SNP pairs with shared functions had stronger effect correlations that spanned longer genomic distances, e.g., -0.37±0.08 for low-frequency positive-LD same-gene promoter SNP pairs (average genomic distance of 47kb (due to alternative splicing)) and -0.32±0.04 for low-frequency positive-LD H3K27ac 0-1kb SNP pairs. Consequently, SNP-heritability estimates were substantially smaller than estimates of the sum of causal effect size variances across all SNPs (ratio of 0.87±0.02 across diseases/traits), particularly for certain functional annotations (e.g., 0.78±0.01 for common Super enhancer SNPs)-even though these quantities are widely assumed to be equal. We recapitulated our findings via forward simulations with an evolutionary model involving stabilizing selection, implicating the action of linkage masking, whereby haplotypes containing linked SNPs with opposite effects on disease have reduced effects on fitness and escape negative selection.

Prediction and stratification of longitudinal risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across smoking behaviors

Smoking is the leading risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) worldwide, yet many people who never smoke develop COPD. We perform a longitudinal analysis of COPD in the UK Biobank to derive and validate the Socioeconomic and Environmental Risk Score which captures additive and cumulative environmental, behavioral, and socioeconomic exposure risks beyond tobacco smoking. The Socioeconomic and Environmental Risk Score is more predictive of COPD than smoking status and pack-years. Individuals in the highest decile of the risk score have a greater risk for incident COPD compared to the remaining population. Never smokers in the highest decile of exposure risk are more likely to develop COPD than previous and current smokers in the lowest decile. In general, the prediction accuracy of the Social and Environmental Risk Score is lower in non-European populations. While smoking status is often considered in screening COPD, our finding highlights the importance of other non-smoking environmental and socioeconomic variables.

Mapping the genetic and phenotypic landscape of neonatal C3 and C4 protein concentrations

The complement system is crucial for innate immunity and has been linked to autoimmune and psychiatric disorders. Borbye-Lorenzen et al.1 perform GWASs and PheWASs of neonatal C3/C4 protein concentrations, finding multiple genome-wide significant loci, and identify sex-specific associations between C3 protein concentration and C4 copy number with risk for schizophrenia.

Analysis across Taiwan Biobank, Biobank Japan, and UK Biobank identifies hundreds of novel loci for 36 quantitative traits

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified tens of thousands of genetic loci associated with human complex traits. However, the majority of GWASs were conducted in individuals of European ancestries. Failure to capture global genetic diversity has limited genomic discovery and has impeded equitable delivery of genomic knowledge to diverse populations. Here we report findings from 102,900 individuals across 36 human quantitative traits in the Taiwan Biobank (TWB), a major biobank effort that broadens the population diversity of genetic studies in East Asia. We identified 968 novel genetic loci, pinpointed novel causal variants through statistical fine-mapping, compared the genetic architecture across TWB, Biobank Japan, and UK Biobank, and evaluated the utility of cross-phenotype, cross-population polygenic risk scores in disease risk prediction. These results demonstrated the potential to advance discovery through diversifying GWAS populations and provided insights into the common genetic basis of human complex traits in East Asia.

Leveraging genetic correlations and multiple populations to improve genetic risk prediction for non-European populations

The disparity in genetic risk prediction accuracy between European and non-European individuals highlights a critical challenge in health inequality. To bridge this gap, we introduce JointPRS, a novel method that models multiple populations jointly to improve genetic risk predictions for non-European individuals. JointPRS has three key features. First, it encompasses all diverse populations to improve prediction accuracy, rather than relying solely on the target population with a singular auxiliary European group. Second, it autonomously estimates and leverages chromosome-wise cross-population genetic correlations to infer the effect sizes of genetic variants. Lastly, it provides an auto version that has comparable performance to the tuning version to accommodate the situation with no validation dataset. Through extensive simulations and real data applications to 22 quantitative traits and four binary traits in East Asian populations, nine quantitative traits and one binary trait in African populations, and four quantitative traits in South Asian populations, we demonstrate that JointPRS outperforms state-of-art methods, improving the prediction accuracy for both quantitative and binary traits in non-European populations.

Pervasive correlations between causal disease effects of proximal SNPs vary with functional annotations and implicate stabilizing selection

The genetic architecture of human diseases and complex traits has been extensively studied, but little is known about the relationship of causal disease effect sizes between proximal SNPs, which have largely been assumed to be independent. We introduce a new method, LD SNP-pair effect correlation regression (LDSPEC), to estimate the correlation of causal disease effect sizes of derived alleles between proximal SNPs, depending on their allele frequencies, LD, and functional annotations; LDSPEC produced robust estimates in simulations across various genetic architectures. We applied LDSPEC to 70 diseases and complex traits from the UK Biobank (average N=306K), meta-analyzing results across diseases/traits. We detected significantly nonzero effect correlations for proximal SNP pairs (e.g., -0.37±0.09 for low-frequency positive-LD 0-100bp SNP pairs) that decayed with distance (e.g., -0.07±0.01 for low-frequency positive-LD 1-10kb), varied with allele frequency (e.g., -0.15±0.04 for common positive-LD 0-100bp), and varied with LD between SNPs (e.g., +0.12±0.05 for common negative-LD 0-100bp) (because we consider derived alleles, positive-LD and negative-LD SNP pairs may yield very different results). We further determined that SNP pairs with shared functions had stronger effect correlations that spanned longer genomic distances, e.g., -0.37±0.08 for low-frequency positive-LD same-gene promoter SNP pairs (average genomic distance of 47kb (due to alternative splicing)) and -0.32±0.04 for low-frequency positive-LD H3K27ac 0-1kb SNP pairs. Consequently, SNP-heritability estimates were substantially smaller than estimates of the sum of causal effect size variances across all SNPs (ratio of 0.87±0.02 across diseases/traits), particularly for certain functional annotations (e.g., 0.78±0.01 for common Super enhancer SNPs)-even though these quantities are widely assumed to be equal. We recapitulated our findings via forward simulations with an evolutionary model involving stabilizing selection, implicating the action of linkage masking, whereby haplotypes containing linked SNPs with opposite effects on disease have reduced effects on fitness and escape negative selection.

The Big (Genetic) Sort? A Research Note on Migration Patterns and Their Genetic Imprint in the United Kingdom

This research note reinvestigates Abdellaoui et al.'s (2019) findings that genetically selective migration may lead to persistent and accumulating socioeconomic and health inequalities between types (coal mining or non-coal mining) of places in the United Kingdom. Their migration measure classified migrants who moved to the same type of place (coal mining to coal mining or non-coal mining to non-coal mining) into "stay" categories, preventing them from distinguishing migrants from nonmigrants. We reinvestigate the question of genetically selective migration by examining migration patterns between places rather than place types and find genetic selectivity in whether people migrate and where. For example, we find evidence of positive selection: people with genetic variants correlated with better education moved from non-coal mining to coal mining places with our measure of migration. Such findings were obscured in earlier work that could not distinguish nonmigrants from migrants.

Polygenic embryo screening: are there potential maternal and fetal harms?

Polygenic embryo screening (PES) and its derivate the Embryo Health Score (EHS) have generated interest in both infertile and fertile populations due to their potential ability to select embryos with a reduced risk of disease and improved long-term health outcomes. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential harms of IVF itself, including possible epigenetic changes that may affect the health of the offspring in late adulthood, which are not fully captured in the EHS calculation. Knowledge of the potential impacts of the trophectoderm biopsy, which is a key component of the PES procedure, on the offsprings' health is limited by the heterogeneity of the population characteristics used in the published studies. Nonetheless, the literature suggests a possible increased risk of preterm delivery, birth defects and pre-eclampsia after trophectoderm biopsy. Overall, the risks of PES for prenatal and postnatal health remain uncertain, and further research is needed. Counselling patients regarding these risks before considering PES is important, to provide an understanding of the risks and benefits. This review aims to highlight some of these issues, the need for continued investigation in this area, and the importance of informed decision-making in the context of PES.

Phenotype integration improves power and preserves specificity in biobank-based genetic studies of major depressive disorder

Biobanks often contain several phenotypes relevant to diseases such as major depressive disorder (MDD), with partly distinct genetic architectures. Researchers face complex tradeoffs between shallow (large sample size, low specificity/sensitivity) and deep (small sample size, high specificity/sensitivity) phenotypes, and the optimal choices are often unclear. Here we propose to integrate these phenotypes to combine the benefits of each. We use phenotype imputation to integrate information across hundreds of MDD-relevant phenotypes, which significantly increases genome-wide association study (GWAS) power and polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction accuracy of the deepest available MDD phenotype in UK Biobank, LifetimeMDD. We demonstrate that imputation preserves specificity in its genetic architecture using a novel PRS-based pleiotropy metric. We further find that integration via summary statistics also enhances GWAS power and PRS predictions, but can introduce nonspecific genetic effects depending on input. Our work provides a simple and scalable approach to improve genetic studies in large biobanks by integrating shallow and deep phenotypes.

Transdiagnostic biomarkers of mental illness across the lifespan: A systematic review examining the genetic and neural correlates of latent transdiagnostic dimensions of psychopathology in the general population

This systematic review synthesizes evidence from research investigating the biological correlates of latent transdiagnostic dimensions of psychopathology (e.g., the p-factor, internalizing, externalizing) across the lifespan. Eligibility criteria captured genomic and neuroimaging studies investigating general and/or specific dimensions in general population samples across all age groups. MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO were searched for relevant studies published up to March 2023 and 46 studies were selected for inclusion. The results revealed several biological correlates consistently associated with transdiagnostic dimensions of psychopathology, including polygenic scores for ADHD and neuroticism, global surface area and global gray matter volume. Shared and unique associations between symptom dimensions are highlighted, as are potential age-specific differences in biological associations. Findings are interpreted with reference to key methodological differences across studies. The included studies provide compelling evidence that the general dimension of psychopathology reflects common underlying genetic and neurobiological vulnerabilities that are shared across diverse manifestations of mental illness. Substantive interpretations of general psychopathology in the context of genetic and neurobiological evidence are discussed.

Advancements in the Genetics of Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a significant cause of acute myocardial infarction that is increasingly recognized in young and middle-aged women. The etiology of SCAD is likely multifactorial and may include the interaction of environmental and individual factors. Here, we summarize the current understanding of the genetic factors contributing to the development of SCAD.

RECENT FINDINGS

The molecular findings underlying SCAD have been demonstrated to include a combination of rare DNA sequence variants with large effects, common variants contributing to a complex genetic architecture, and variants with intermediate impact. The genes associated with SCAD highlight the role of arterial cells and their extracellular matrix in the pathogenesis of the disease and shed light on the relationship between SCAD and other disorders, including fibromuscular dysplasia and connective tissue diseases. While up to 10% of affected individuals may harbor a rare variant with large effect, SCAD most often presents as a complex genetic condition. Analyses of larger and more diverse cohorts will continue to improve our understanding of risk susceptibility loci and will also enable consideration of the clinical utility of genetic testing strategies in the management of SCAD.

A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Idealisations and the aims of polygenic scores

Research in pharmacogenomics and precision medicine has recently introduced the concept of Polygenic Scores (PGSs), namely, indexes that aggregate the effects that many genetic variants are predicted to have on individual disease risk. The popularity of PGSs is increasing rapidly, but surprisingly little attention has been paid to the idealisations they make about phenotypic development. Indeed, PGSs rely on quantitative genetics models and methods, which involve considerable theoretical assumptions that have been questioned on various grounds. This comes with epistemological and ethical concerns about the use of PGSs in clinical decision-making. In this paper, I investigate to what extent idealisations in genetics models can impact the data gathering and clinical interpretation of genomics findings, particularly the calculation and predictive accuracy of PGSs. Although idealisations are considered ineliminable components of scientific models, they may be legitimate or not depending on the epistemic aims of a model. I thus analyse how various idealisations have been introduced in classical models and progressively readapted throughout the history of genetic theorising. Notably, this process involved important changes in the epistemic purpose of such idealisations, which raises the question of whether they are legitimate in the context of contemporary genomics.

Identifying Rare Genetic Determinants for Improved Polygenic Risk Prediction of Bone Mineral Density and Fracture Risk

Osteoporosis and fractures severely impact the elderly population. Polygenic risk scores for bone mineral density have demonstrated potential clinical utility. However, the value of rare genetic determinants in risk prediction has not been assessed. With whole-exome sequencing data from 436,824 UK Biobank participants, we assigned White British ancestry individuals into a training data set (n = 317,434) and a test data set (n = 74,825). In the training data set, we developed a common variant-based polygenic risk score for heel ultrasound speed of sound (SOS). Next, we performed burden testing to identify genes harboring rare determinants of bone mineral density, targeting influential rare variants with predicted high deleteriousness. We constructed a genetic risk score, called ggSOS, to incorporate influential rare variants in significant gene burden masks into the common variant-based polygenic risk score. We assessed the predictive performance of ggSOS in the White British test data set, as well as in populations of non-White British European (n = 18,885), African (n = 7165), East Asian (n = 2236), South Asian (n = 9829), and other admixed (n = 1481) ancestries. Twelve genes in pivotal regulatory pathways of bone homeostasis harbored influential rare variants associated with SOS (p < 5.5 × 10-7 ), including AHNAK, BMP5, CYP19A1, FAM20A, FBXW5, KDM5B, KREMEN1, LGR4, LRP5, SMAD6, SOST, and WNT1. Among 4013 (5.4%) individuals in the test data set carrying these variants, a one standard deviation decrease in ggSOS was associated with 1.35-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.57) increased hazard of major osteoporotic fracture. However, compared with a common variant-based polygenic risk score (C-index = 0.641), ggSOS had only marginally improved prediction accuracy in identifying at-risk individuals (C-index = 0.644), with overlapping confidence intervals. Similarly, ggSOS did not demonstrate substantially improved predictive performance in non-European ancestry populations. In summary, modeling the effects of rare genetic determinants may assist polygenic prediction of fracture risk among carriers of influential rare variants. Nonetheless, improved clinical utility is not guaranteed for population-level risk screening. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Birthweight, genetic risk, and gastrointestinal cancer incidence: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiologic studies investigating the association of birthweight and genetic factors with gastrointestinal cancer remain scarce. The study aimed to prospectively assess the interactions and joint effects of birthweight and genetic risk levels on gastrointestinal cancer incidence in adulthood.

METHODS

A total of 254,997 participants were included in the UK Biobank study. We used multivariate restricted cubic splines and Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidential intervals (CI) for the association between birthweight and gastrointestinal cancer risk, then constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) to assess its interaction and joint effect with birthweight on the development of gastrointestinal cancer.

RESULTS

We documented 2512 incident cases during a median follow-up of 8.88 years. Compare with participants reporting a normal birthweight (2.5-4.5 kg), multivariable-adjusted HR of gastrointestinal cancer incidence for participants with high birthweight (≥4.5 kg) was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.01-1.36). Such association was remarkably observed in pancreatic cancer, with an HR of 1.82 (95%CI: 1.26-2.64). No statistically significant association was observed between low birth weight and gastrointestinal cancers. Participants with high birthweight and high PRS had the highest risk of gastrointestinal cancer (HR: 2.95, 95%CI: 2.19-3.96).

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight that high birthweight is associated with a higher incidence of gastrointestinal cancer, especially for pancreatic cancer. Benefits would be obtained from birthweight control, particularly for individuals with a high genetic risk.KEY MESSAGESThe epidemiologic studies investigating the association of birthweight and genetic factors with gastrointestinal cancer remain scarce.This cohort study of 254,997 adults in the United Kingdom found an association of high birthweight with the incidence of gastrointestinal cancer, especially for pancreatic cancer, and also found that participants with high birthweight and high polygenic risk score had the highest risk of gastrointestinal cancer.Our data suggests a possible effect of in utero or early life exposures on adulthood gastrointestinal cancer, especially for those with a high genetic risk.

The Ethics of Risk Prediction for Psychosis and Suicide Attempt in Youth Mental Health

OBJECTIVE

To identify potential clinical utility of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and exposomic risk scores (ERS) for psychosis and suicide attempt in youth and assess the ethical implications of these tools.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a narrative literature review of emerging findings on PRS and ERS for suicide and psychosis as well as a literature review on the ethics of PRS. We discuss the ethical implications of the emerging findings for the clinical potential of PRS and ERS.

RESULTS

Emerging evidence suggests that PRS and ERS may offer clinical utility in the relatively near future but that this utility will be limited to specific, narrow clinical questions, in contrast to the suggestion that population-level screening will have sweeping impact. Combining PRS and ERS might optimize prediction. This clinical utility would change the risk-benefit balance of PRS, and further empirical assessment of proposed risks would be necessary. Some concerns for PRS, such as those about counseling, privacy, and inequities, apply to ERS. ERS raise distinct ethical challenges as well, including some that involve informed consent and direct-to-consumer advertising. Both raise questions about the ethics of machine-learning/artificial intelligence approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive analytics using PRS and ERS may soon play a role in youth mental health settings. Our findings help educate clinicians about potential capabilities, limitations, and ethical implications of these tools. We suggest that a broader discussion with the public is needed to avoid overenthusiasm and determine regulations and guidelines for use of predictive scores.

Integration of Biomarker Polygenic Risk Score Improves Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease

There are several established biomarkers for coronary heart disease (CHD), including blood pressure, cholesterol, and lipoproteins. It is of high interest to determine how a combined polygenic risk score (PRS) of CHD-associated biomarkers (BioPRS) can further improve genetic prediction of CHD. We developed CHDBioPRS, combining BioPRS with PRS of CHD in the UK Biobank and tested it on FinnGen. We found that BioPRS was clearly predictive of CHD and that CHDBioPRS improved the standard CHD PRS. The largest effect was observed with early onset cases in FinnGen, with HRs above 2 per standard deviation of CHDBioPRS.

Influence of Diabetes Family History on the Associations of Combined Genetic and Lifestyle Risks with Diabetes in the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-Based Cohort Study

AIM

The influence of family history of diabetes, probably reflecting genetic and lifestyle factors, on the association of combined genetic and lifestyle risks with diabetes is unknown. We examined these associations.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 9,681 participants in the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-based Cohort Study. A lifestyle score, which was categorized into ideal, intermediate, and poor lifestyles, was given. Family history was obtained through a self-reported questionnaire. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was constructed in the target data (n=1,936) using publicly available genome-wide association study summary statistics from BioBank Japan. For test data (n=7,745), we evaluated PRS performance and examined the associations of combined family history and genetic and lifestyle risks with diabetes. Diabetes was defined as non-fasting blood glucose ≥ 200 mmHg, HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, and/or self-reported diabetes treatment.

RESULTS

In test data, 467 (6.0%) participants had diabetes. Compared with a low genetic risk and an ideal lifestyle without a family history, the odds ratio (OR) was 3.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92-7.00) for a lower genetic risk and a poor lifestyle without a family history. Family history was significantly associated with diabetes (OR, 3.58 [95% CI, 1.73-6.98]), even in those with a low genetic risk and an ideal lifestyle. Even among participants who had an ideal lifestyle without a family history, a high genetic risk was associated with diabetes (OR, 2.49 [95% CI, 1.65-3.85]). Adding PRS to family history and conventional lifestyle risk factors improved the prediction ability for diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the notion that a healthy lifestyle is important to prevent diabetes regardless of genetic risk.

Trans-ethnic genomic informed risk assessment for Alzheimer's disease: An International Hundred K+ Cohorts Consortium study

BACKGROUND

As a collaboration model between the International HundredK+ Cohorts Consortium (IHCC) and the Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative (DAC), our aim was to develop a trans-ethnic genomic informed risk assessment (GIRA) algorithm for Alzheimer's disease (AD).

METHODS

The GIRA model was created to include polygenic risk score calculated from the AD genome-wide association study loci, the apolipoprotein E haplotypes, and non-genetic covariates including age, sex, and the first three principal components of population substructure.

RESULTS

We validated the performance of the GIRA model in different populations. The proteomic study in the participant sites identified proteins related to female infertility and autoimmune thyroiditis and associated with the risk scores of AD.

CONCLUSIONS

As the initial effort by the IHCC to leverage existing large-scale datasets in a collaborative setting with DAC, we developed a trans-ethnic GIRA for AD with the potential of identifying individuals at high risk of developing AD for future clinical applications.

Pruning and thresholding approach for methylation risk scores in multi-ancestry populations

Recent efforts have focused on developing methylation risk scores (MRS), a weighted sum of the individual's DNA methylation (DNAm) values of pre-selected CpG sites. Most of the current MRS approaches that utilize Epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) summary statistics only include genome-wide significant CpG sites and do not consider co-methylation. New methods that relax the p-value threshold to include more CpG sites and account for the inter-correlation of DNAm might improve the predictive performance of MRS. We paired informed co-methylation pruning with P-value thresholding to generate pruning and thresholding (P+T) MRS and evaluated its performance among multi-ancestry populations. Through simulation studies and real data analyses, we demonstrated that pruning provides an improvement over simple thresholding methods for prediction of phenotypes. We demonstrated that European-derived summary statistics can be used to develop P+T MRS among other populations such as African populations. However, the prediction accuracy of P+T MRS may differ across multi-ancestry population due to environmental/cultural/social differences.

Utilize polygenic risk score to enhance fracture risk estimation and improve the performance of FRAX in patients with osteoporosis

This study examined the use of polygenic risk scores (PGS) in combination with the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) to enhance fragility fractures risk estimation in osteoporosis patients. Analyzing data from over 57,000 participants, PGS improved fracture risk estimation, especially for individuals with intermediate to low risks, allowing personalized preventive strategies.

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporosis and fragility fractures are multifactorial, with contributions from both clinical and genetic determinants. However, whether using polygenic risk scores (PGS) may enhance the risk estimation of osteoporotic fracture in addition to Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) remains unknown. This study investigated the collective association of PGS and FRAX with fragility fracture.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study from the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative (TPMI) at Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan. Genotyping was performed to compute PGS associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Phenome-wide association studies were executed to pinpoint phenotypes correlated with the PGS. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to ascertain factors associated with osteoporotic fractures.

RESULTS

Among all 57,257 TPMI participants, 3744 (904 men and 2840 women, with a mean age of 66.7) individuals had BMD testing, with 540 (14.42%) presenting with fractures. The 3744 individuals who underwent BMD testing were categorized into four quartiles (Q1-Q4) based on PGS; 540 (14.42%) presented with fractures. Individuals with PGS-Q1 exhibited lower BMD, a higher prevalence of major fractures, and elevated FRAX-major and FRAX-hip than those with PGS-Q4. PGS was associated with major fractures after adjusting age, sex, and FRAX scores. Notably, the risk of major fractures (PGS-Q1 vs. Q4) was significantly higher in the subgroups of FRAX-major scores < 10% and 10-20%, but not in participants with a FRAX-major score ≧ 20%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the potential of PGS to augment fracture risk estimation in conjunction with FRAX, particularly in individuals with middle to low risks. Incorporating genetic testing could empower physicians to tailor personalized preventive strategies for osteoporosis.

Genetic risk prediction in Hispanics/Latinos: milestones, challenges, and social-ethical considerations

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have allowed the identification of disease-associated variants, which can be leveraged to build polygenic scores (PGSs). Even though PGSs can be a valuable tool in personalized medicine, their predictive power is limited in populations of non-European ancestry, particularly in admixed populations. Recent efforts have focused on increasing racial and ethnic diversity in GWAS, thus, addressing some of the limitations of genetic risk prediction in these populations. Even with these efforts, few studies focus exclusively on Hispanics/Latinos. Additionally, Hispanic/Latino populations are often considered a single population despite varying admixture proportions between and within ethnic groups, diverse genetic heterogeneity, and demographic history. Combined with highly heterogeneous environmental and socioeconomic exposures, this diversity can reduce the transferability of genetic risk prediction models. Given the recent increase of genomic studies that include Hispanics/Latinos, we review the milestones and efforts that focus on genetic risk prediction, summarize the potential for improving PGS transferability, and highlight the challenges yet to be addressed. Additionally, we summarize social-ethical considerations and provide ideas to promote genetic risk prediction models that can be implemented equitably.

WITHDRAWN: Genome-wide risk prediction of primary open-angle glaucoma across multiple ancestries

This manuscript has been withdrawn by medRxiv following a formal request by the QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute Research Integrity Office owing to lack of author consent.

Evaluation of European-based polygenic risk score for breast cancer in Ashkenazi Jewish women in Israel

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS), calculated based on genome-wide association studies (GWASs), can improve breast cancer (BC) risk assessment. To date, most BC GWASs have been performed in individuals of European (EUR) ancestry, and the generalisation of EUR-based PRS to other populations is a major challenge. In this study, we examined the performance of EUR-based BC PRS models in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women.

METHODS

We generated PRSs based on data on EUR women from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). We tested the performance of the PRSs in a cohort of 2161 AJ women from Israel (1437 cases and 724 controls) from BCAC (BCAC cohort from Israel (BCAC-IL)). In addition, we tested the performance of these EUR-based BC PRSs, as well as the established 313-SNP EUR BC PRS, in an independent cohort of 181 AJ women from Hadassah Medical Center (HMC) in Israel.

RESULTS

In the BCAC-IL cohort, the highest OR per 1 SD was 1.56 (±0.09). The OR for AJ women at the top 10% of the PRS distribution compared with the middle quintile was 2.10 (±0.24). In the HMC cohort, the OR per 1 SD of the EUR-based PRS that performed best in the BCAC-IL cohort was 1.58±0.27. The OR per 1 SD of the commonly used 313-SNP BC PRS was 1.64 (±0.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Extant EUR GWAS data can be used for generating PRSs that identify AJ women with markedly elevated risk of BC and therefore hold promise for improving BC risk assessment in AJ women.

Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events

A diagnosis of epilepsy has significant consequences for an individual but is often challenging in clinical practice. Novel biomarkers are thus greatly needed. Here, we investigated how common genetic factors (epilepsy polygenic risk scores, [PRSs]) influence epilepsy risk in detailed longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) of > 360k Finns spanning up to 50 years of individuals' lifetimes. Individuals with a high genetic generalized epilepsy PRS (PRSGGE) in FinnGen had an increased risk for genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.55 per PRSGGE standard deviation [SD]) across their lifetime and after unspecified seizure events. Effect sizes of epilepsy PRSs were comparable to effect sizes in clinically curated data supporting our EHR-derived epilepsy diagnoses. Within 10 years after an unspecified seizure, the GGE rate was 37% when PRSGGE > 2 SD compared to 5.6% when PRSGGE < -2 SD. The effect of PRSGGE was even larger on GGE subtypes of idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) (HR 2.1 per SD PRSGGE). We further report significantly larger effects of PRSGGE on epilepsy in females and in younger age groups. Analogously, we found significant but more modest focal epilepsy PRS burden associated with non-acquired focal epilepsy (NAFE). We found PRSGGE specifically associated with GGE in comparison with >2000 independent diseases while PRSNAFE was also associated with other diseases than NAFE such as back pain. Here, we show that epilepsy specific PRSs have good discriminative ability after a first seizure event i.e. in circumstances where the prior probability of epilepsy is high outlining a potential to serve as biomarkers for an epilepsy diagnosis.

Polygenic Risk Score for Cardiovascular Diseases in Artificial Intelligence Paradigm: A Review

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) related mortality and morbidity heavily strain society. The relationship between external risk factors and our genetics have not been well established. It is widely acknowledged that environmental influence and individual behaviours play a significant role in CVD vulnerability, leading to the development of polygenic risk scores (PRS). We employed the PRISMA search method to locate pertinent research and literature to extensively review artificial intelligence (AI)-based PRS models for CVD risk prediction. Furthermore, we analyzed and compared conventional vs. AI-based solutions for PRS. We summarized the recent advances in our understanding of the use of AI-based PRS for risk prediction of CVD. Our study proposes three hypotheses: i) Multiple genetic variations and risk factors can be incorporated into AI-based PRS to improve the accuracy of CVD risk predicting. ii) AI-based PRS for CVD circumvents the drawbacks of conventional PRS calculators by incorporating a larger variety of genetic and non-genetic components, allowing for more precise and individualised risk estimations. iii) Using AI approaches, it is possible to significantly reduce the dimensionality of huge genomic datasets, resulting in more accurate and effective disease risk prediction models. Our study highlighted that the AI-PRS model outperformed traditional PRS calculators in predicting CVD risk. Furthermore, using AI-based methods to calculate PRS may increase the precision of risk predictions for CVD and have significant ramifications for individualized prevention and treatment plans.

Massive underrepresentation of Arabs in genomic studies of common disease

Arabs represent 5% of the world population and have a high prevalence of common disease, yet remain greatly underrepresented in genome-wide association studies, where only 1 in 600 individuals are Arab. We highlight the persistent and unaddressed underrepresentation of Arabs in genomic databases and discuss its impact on public health genomics and missed opportunities for biological discovery.

Can polygenic risk scores help explain disease prevalence differences around the world? A worldwide investigation

Complex disorders are caused by a combination of genetic, environmental and lifestyle factors, and their prevalence can vary greatly across different populations. The extent to which genetic risk, as identified by Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS), correlates to disease prevalence in different populations has not been investigated systematically. Here, we studied 14 different complex disorders and explored whether polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on current GWAS correlate to disease prevalence within Europe and around the world. A clear variation in GWAS-based genetic risk was observed based on ancestry and we identified populations that have a higher genetic liability for developing certain disorders. We found that for four out of the 14 studied disorders, PRS significantly correlates to disease prevalence within Europe. We also found significant correlations between worldwide disease prevalence and PRS for eight of the studied disorders with Multiple Sclerosis genetic risk having the highest correlation to disease prevalence. Based on current GWAS results, the across population differences in genetic risk for certain disorders can potentially be used to understand differences in disease prevalence and identify populations with the highest genetic liability. The study highlights both the limitations of PRS based on current GWAS but also the fact that in some cases, PRS may already have high predictive power. This could be due to the genetic architecture of specific disorders or increased GWAS power in some cases.

A Systematic Review and Critical Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Tools Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score for the General Population

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the form of a polygenic risk score (PRS) have emerged as a promising factor that could improve the predictive performance of breast cancer (BC) risk prediction tools. This study aims to appraise and critically assess the current evidence on these tools. Studies were identified using Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library up to November 2022 and were included if they described the development and/ or validation of a BC risk prediction model using a PRS for women of the general population and if they reported a measure of predictive performance. We identified 37 articles, of which 29 combined genetic and non-genetic risk factors using seven different risk prediction tools. Most models (55.0%) were developed on populations from European ancestry and performed better than those developed on populations from other ancestry groups. Regardless of the number of SNPs in each PRS, models combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors generally had better discriminatory accuracy (AUC from 0.52 to 0.77) than those using a PRS alone (AUC from 0.48 to 0.68). The overall risk of bias was considered low in most studies. BC risk prediction tools combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors provided better discriminative accuracy than either used alone. Further studies are needed to cross-compare their clinical utility and readiness for implementation in public health practices.

A longitudinal study of polygenic score and cognitive function decline considering baseline cognitive function, lifestyle behaviors, and diabetes among middle-aged and older US adults

BACKGROUND

Genomic study of cognition decline while considering baseline cognition and lifestyle behaviors is scarce. We aimed to evaluate the impact of a polygenic score for general cognition on cognition decline rate, while considering baseline cognition and lifestyle behaviors, among the general population and people with diabetes, a patient group commonly affected by cognition impairment.

METHODS

We tested associations of the polygenic score for general cognition with annual changing rates of cognition measures in 8 years of follow-up among 12,090 White and 3100 Black participants of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 years and older in the USA. Cognition measures including word recall, mental status, and total cognitive score were measured biannually. To maximize sample size and length of follow-up, we treated the 2010 wave of survey as baseline, and follow-up data until 2018 were analyzed. Baseline lifestyle behaviors, APOE status, and measured cognition were sequentially adjusted. Given racial differences in polygenic score, all analyses were conducted by race.

RESULTS

The polygenic score was significantly associated with annual changing rates of all cognition measures independent of lifestyle behaviors and APOE status. Together with age and sex, the polygenic score explained 29.9%, 15.9%, and 26.5% variances of annual changing rates of word recall, mental status, and total cognitive scores among Whites and explained 17.2%, 13.9%, and 18.7% variance of the three traits among Blacks. Among both White and Black participants, those in the top quartile of polygenic score had the three cognition measures increased annually, while those in the bottom quartile had the three cognition measures decreased annually. After further adjusting for the average cognition assessed in 3 visits around baseline, the polygenic score was still positively associated with annual changing rates of all cognition measures for White (P ≤ 2.89E - 19) but not for Black (P ≥ 0.07) participants. In addition, among participants with diabetes, physical activity offset the genetic susceptibility to decline of mental status (interaction P ≤ 0.01) and total cognitive scores (interaction P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic score predicted cognition changes in addition to measured cognition. Physical activity offset genetic risk for cognition decline among diabetes patients.

Evaluation of optimal methods and ancestries for calculating polygenic risk scores in East Asian population

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been studied for predicting human diseases, and various methods for PRS calculation have been developed. Most PRS studies to date have focused on European ancestry, and the performance of PRS has not been sufficiently assessed in East Asia. Herein, we evaluated the predictive performance of PRSs for East Asian populations under various conditions. Simulation studies using data from the Korean cohort, Health Examinees (HEXA), demonstrated that SBayesRC and PRS-CS outperformed other PRS methods (lassosum, LDpred-funct, and PRSice) in high fixed heritability (0.3 and 0.7). In addition, we generated PRSs using real-world data from HEXA for ten diseases: asthma, breast cancer, cataract, coronary artery disease, gastric cancer, glaucoma, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, osteoporosis, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We utilized the five previous PRS methods and genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from two biobank-scale datasets [European (UK Biobank) and East Asian (BioBank Japan) ancestry]. Additionally, we employed PRS-CSx, a PRS method that combines GWAS data from both ancestries, to generate a total of 110 PRS for ten diseases. Similar to the simulation results, SBayesRC showed better predictive performance for disease risk than the other methods. Furthermore, the East Asian GWAS data outperformed those from European ancestry for breast cancer, cataract, gastric cancer, and T2D, but neither of the two GWAS ancestries showed a significant advantage on PRS performance for the remaining six diseases. Based on simulation data and real data studies, it is expected that SBayesRC will offer superior performance for East Asian populations, and PRS generated using GWAS from non-East Asian may also yield good results.

Research on Health Disparities: Strategies and Findings From the Black Women's Health Study

The American Journal of Epidemiology has been a platform for findings from the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS) that are relevant to health disparities. Topics addressed have included methods of follow-up of a large cohort of Black women, disparities in health-care delivery, modifiable risk factors for health conditions that disproportionately affect Black women, associations with exposures that are highly prevalent in Black women, and methods for genetic research. BWHS papers have also highlighted the importance of considering social context, including perceived experiences of racism, in understanding health disparities. In the future, BWHS investigators will contribute to documentation of the role that structural racism plays in health disparities.

Power of inclusion: Enhancing polygenic prediction with admixed individuals

Admixed individuals offer unique opportunities for addressing limited transferability in polygenic scores (PGSs), given the substantial trans-ancestry genetic correlation in many complex traits. However, they are rarely considered in PGS training, given the challenges in representing ancestry-matched linkage-disequilibrium reference panels for admixed individuals. Here we present inclusive PGS (iPGS), which captures ancestry-shared genetic effects by finding the exact solution for penalized regression on individual-level data and is thus naturally applicable to admixed individuals. We validate our approach in a simulation study across 33 configurations with varying heritability, polygenicity, and ancestry composition in the training set. When iPGS is applied to n = 237,055 ancestry-diverse individuals in the UK Biobank, it shows the greatest improvements in Africans by 48.9% on average across 60 quantitative traits and up to 50-fold improvements for some traits (neutrophil count, R2 = 0.058) over the baseline model trained on the same number of European individuals. When we allowed iPGS to use n = 284,661 individuals, we observed an average improvement of 60.8% for African, 11.6% for South Asian, 7.3% for non-British White, 4.8% for White British, and 17.8% for the other individuals. We further developed iPGS+refit to jointly model the ancestry-shared and -dependent genetic effects when heterogeneous genetic associations were present. For neutrophil count, for example, iPGS+refit showed the highest predictive performance in the African group (R2 = 0.115), which exceeds the best predictive performance for the White British group (R2 = 0.090 in the iPGS model), even though only 1.49% of individuals used in the iPGS training are of African ancestry. Our results indicate the power of including diverse individuals for developing more equitable PGS models.