Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

COVID-19 Transmission Within a Family Cluster in Yancheng, China

We report the clinical features of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in a family setting of 13 people with person-to-person transmission in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, China.

Association of Initial Viral Load in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Patients with Outcome and Symptoms

The dynamics of viral load (VL) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and its association with different clinical parameters remain poorly characterized in the US patient population. Herein, we investigate associations between VL and parameters, such as severity of symptoms, disposition (admission versus direct discharge), length of hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit, length of oxygen support, and overall survival in 205 patients from a tertiary care center in New York City. VL was determined using quantitative PCR and log10 transformed for normalization. Associations were tested with univariate and multivariate regression models. Diagnostic VL was significantly lower in hospitalized patients than in patients not hospitalized (log10 VL = 3.3 versus 4.0; P = 0.018) after adjusting for age, sex, race, body mass index, and comorbidities. Higher VL was associated with shorter duration of the symptoms in all patients and hospitalized patients only and shorter hospital stay (coefficient = −2.02, −2.61, and −2.18; P < 0.001, P = 0.002, and P = 0.013, respectively). No significant association was noted between VL, admission to intensive care unit, length of oxygen support, and overall survival. Our findings suggest a higher shedding risk in less symptomatic patients, an important consideration for containment strategies. Furthermore, we identify a novel association between VL and history of cancer. Larger studies are warranted to validate our findings.

Chopping the tail: how preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control

Disease transmission is notoriously heterogeneous, and SARS-CoV-2 is no exception. A skewed distribution where few individuals or events are responsible for the majority of transmission can result in explosive, superspreading events, which produce rapid and volatile epidemic dynamics, especially early or late in epidemics. Anticipating and preventing superspreading events can produce large reductions in overall transmission rates. Here, we present a compartmental (SEIR) epidemiological model framework for estimating transmission parameters from multiple imperfectly observed data streams, including reported cases, deaths, and mobile phone-based mobility that incorporates individual-level heterogeneity in transmission using previous estimates for SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. We parameterize the model for COVID-19 epidemic dynamics by estimating a time-varying transmission rate that incorporates the impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies that change over time, in five epidemiologically distinct settings---Los Angeles and Santa Clara Counties, California; Seattle (King County), Washington; Atlanta (Dekalb and Fulton Counties), Georgia; and Miami (Miami-Dade County), Florida. We find the effective reproduction number R E dropped below 1 rapidly following social distancing orders in mid-March, 2020 and remained there into June in Santa Clara County and Seattle, but climbed above 1 in late May in Los Angeles, Miami, and Atlanta, and has trended upward in all locations since April. With the fitted model, we ask: how does truncating the tail of the individual-level transmission rate distribution affect epidemic dynamics and control? We find interventions that truncate the transmission rate distribution while partially relaxing social distancing are broadly effective, with impacts on epidemic growth on par with the strongest population-wide social distancing observed in April, 2020. Given that social distancing interventions will be needed to maintain epidemic control until a vaccine becomes widely available, "chopping off the tail" to reduce the probability of superspreading events presents a promising option to alleviate the need for extreme general social distancing.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): an evidence map of medical literature

BACKGROUND

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in December 2019, a substantial body of COVID-19 medical literature has been generated. As of June 2020, gaps and longitudinal trends in the COVID-19 medical literature remain unidentified, despite potential benefits for research prioritisation and policy setting in both the COVID-19 pandemic and future large-scale public health crises.

METHODS

In this paper, we searched PubMed and Embase for medical literature on COVID-19 between 1 January and 24 March 2020. We characterised the growth of the early COVID-19 medical literature using evidence maps and bibliometric analyses to elicit cross-sectional and longitudinal trends and systematically identify gaps.

RESULTS

The early COVID-19 medical literature originated primarily from Asia and focused mainly on clinical features and diagnosis of the disease. Many areas of potential research remain underexplored, such as mental health, the use of novel technologies and artificial intelligence, pathophysiology of COVID-19 within different body systems, and indirect effects of COVID-19 on the care of non-COVID-19 patients. Few articles involved research collaboration at the international level (24.7%). The median submission-to-publication duration was 8 days (interquartile range: 4-16).

CONCLUSIONS

Although in its early phase, COVID-19 research has generated a large volume of publications. However, there are still knowledge gaps yet to be filled and areas for improvement for the global research community. Our analysis of early COVID-19 research may be valuable in informing research prioritisation and policy planning both in the current COVID-19 pandemic and similar global health crises.

Rational use of SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction tests within institutions caring for the vulnerable

Institutions such as hospitals and nursing or long-stay residential homes accommodate individuals at considerable risk of mortality should they acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection. In these settings, polymerase chain reaction tests play a central role in infection prevention and control. Here, we argue that both false negative and false positive tests are possible and that careful consideration of the prior probability of infection and of test characteristics are needed to prevent harm. We outline evidence suggesting that regular systematic testing of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals could play an important role in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within institutions. We discuss how such a programme might be organised, arguing that frequent testing and rapid reporting of results are particularly important. We highlight studies demonstrating that polymerase chain reaction testing of pooled samples can be undertaken with acceptable loss of sensitivity, and advocate such an approach where test capacity is limited. We provide an approach to calculating the most efficient pool size. Given the current limitations of tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection, physical distancing and meticulous infection prevention and control will remain essential in institutions caring for vulnerable people.

Impact of COVID-19 on gastrointestinal endoscopy practice in India: a cross-sectional study

Background and study aims  Gastrointestinal endoscopy, being an aerosol-generating procedure, has the potential to transmit Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Corona Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the current pandemic. Adequate knowledge is the key to prevention. A survey, perhaps the first, was conducted among Indian endoscopists to assess the impact of Coronavirus Disease (COVID)-19 on gastroinestinal endoscopy practice in the country. Methods  From April 24 to 28, 2020, an electronic survey (using Google Form) was conducted with 23 questions (single or multiple answers) on: (1) endoscopy practice before the pandemic; (2) knowledge about COVID-19; and (3) its impact on endoscopy practice. Results  Responses were received from 375 of 1205 (31.1 %) endoscopists. Most (35.7 %) were young (31-40 years), practicing in corporate multi-speciality hospitals (44.6 %) or independent practice set-up (17.7 %) in metropolitan cities (55.6 %) and urban areas (42.3 %). In most units (75.4 %), fewer than 10 % of procedures performed are endoscopies, as compared to before the pandemic. A reduction in volume of endoscopy related to restriction of the routine procedures by the latest guideline was reported by 86.9 % of respondents. Most are using N95 masks (74.7 %) and/or complete personal protective equipment (PPE, 49.2 %) during endoscopic procedures . Only 18.3 % of respondents had access to negative pressure rooms either within (5.4 %) or outside (12.9 %) the usual endoscopy suite. Conclusion  Endoscopy units in India are performing fewer than 10 % of their usual volumes due to current restrictions. Resources to follow current international guidelines, including use of negative pressure rooms and PPE, are limited. Alternate measures are needed to keep up the services.

Electroconvulsive therapy during a highly contagious respiratory pandemic-A framework during COVID-19

Necessary procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic include electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). Providing ECT has been considered an essential service during COVID-19 in the Singapore healthcare system, not least to contribute to disease control within a society in part due to the nature of the ECT patient population. There is limited evidence-based scientific information available regarding a procedural framework for ECT during a respiratory pandemic, when much attention in the healthcare system is focused on different areas of clinical care. This article attempts to describe such a framework for ECT procedures acknowledging limited solid scientific evidence at this time and being mindful of future changes to these suggestions as testing, immunization, and treatment options develop. This approach can be adopted in whole or in part to assist practitioners to protect the patient and themselves during the procedure.

Evaluation of Aircraft Boarding Scenarios Considering Reduced Transmissions Risks

Air travel appears as particularly hazardous in a pandemic situation, since infected people can travel worldwide and could cause new breakouts in remote locations. The confined space conditions in the aircraft cabin necessitate a small physical distance between passengers and hence may boost virus transmissions. In our contribution, we implemented a transmission model in a virtual aircraft environment to evaluate the individual interactions between passengers during aircraft boarding and deboarding. Since no data for the transmission is currently available, we reasonably calibrated our model using a sample case from 2003. The simulation results show that standard boarding procedures create a substantial number of possible transmissions if a contagious passenger is present. The introduction of physical distances between passengers decreases the number of possible transmissions by approx. 75% for random boarding sequences, and could further decreased by more strict reduction of hand luggage items (less time for storage, compartment space is always available). If a second door is used for boarding and deboarding, the standard boarding times could be reached. Individual boarding strategies (by seat) could reduce the transmission potential to a minimum, but demand for complex pre-sorting of passengers. Our results also exhibit that deboarding consists of the highest transmission potential and only minor benefits from distance rules and hand luggage regulations.

COVID-19 and post-mortem microbiological studies

We review the microbiological aspects of COVID-19 infection and present the microbiological studies that should be performed in forensic cases. We describe the taxonomic characteristics of the virus, its relationship with the coronaviridae family and its genetic structure. We briefly present the clinical and pathological characteristics of COVID-19 infection, as well as the co-infections that could be associated with this virus. In the laboratory, PCR is a first-choice technique in the acute phase of the infection, together with antigen and serological studies. Finally, we describe the main objectives of microbiological studies in the deceased in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the main post-mortem microbiological analysis to be carried out in the medico-legal context. The microbiological analysis should aim to detect both SARS-CoV-2 and coinfections, which may also contribute to the cause of death.

Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China

BACKGROUND

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of March 31, 2020, a total of 82,631 cases of COVID-19 in China were confirmed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

METHODS

Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers.

RESULTS

A total of 198 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 139 dates of infections were identified among 14,829 confirmed cases outside Hubei Province as reported as of March 31, 2020. Based on this information, we found that the serial interval had an average of 4.60 days with a standard deviation of 5.55 days, the incubation period had an average of 8.00 days with a standard deviation of 4.75 days and the infectious period had an average of 13.96 days with a standard deviation of 5.20 days. The estimated controlled reproduction numbers, R_c, produced by all three methods in all analyzed regions of China are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R₀.

CONCLUSIONS

The controlled reproduction number in China is much lower than one in all regions of China by now. It fell below one within 30 days from the implementations of unprecedent containment measures, which indicates that the strong measures taken by China government was effective to contain the epidemic. Nonetheless, efforts are still needed in order to end the current epidemic as imported cases from overseas pose a high risk of a second outbreak.

Laboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2: available approaches and limitations

The ongoing pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is one of the most devastating outbreaks witnessed in the last 100 years. The outbreak started in China and spread rapidly to almost every country, culminating in woefully overwhelmed health-care systems in most countries. The only approved diagnostic test to accompany radiographic evaluation is reverse transcription PCR. However, the applicability of this test in diagnosis and surveillance is challenged by a global shortage of reagents and the lack of well-equipped laboratories with specialized staff in several low- and middle-income countries. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification and CRISPR-based diagnostic assays have developed and expected to play a role however, their accuracy is still inferior to the recommended PCR approach. The need for the development of accurate and rapid diagnostic assays became apparent. Immunodiagnostic tests and other molecular approaches were developed and tested. Other recently developed point-of-care molecular tests are expected to be helpful in pandemic management as no particular skills are required from the operator. Fortunately, a number of serological tests have been granted authorization for use under the emergency situation by the US FDA for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. The majority of recently authorized serological tests detect IgG and IgM in blood of infected individuals by on ELISA, chemiluminescence platforms or lateral flow cassettes.

SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19: a primer for cardiologists

In the late autumn of 2019, a new potentially lethal human coronavirus designated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China. The pandemic spread of this zoonotic virus has created a global health emergency and an unprecedented socioeconomic crisis. The severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the illness caused by SARS-CoV‑2, is highly variable. Most patients (~85%) develop no or mild symptoms, while others become seriously ill, some succumbing to disease-related complications. In this review, the SARS-CoV‑2 life cycle, its transmission and the clinical and immunological features of COVID-19 are described. In addition, an overview is presented of the virological assays for detecting ongoing SARS-CoV‑2 infections and the serological tests for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody detection. Also discussed are the different approaches to developing a COVID-19 vaccine and the perspectives of treating COVID-19 with antiviral drugs, immunomodulatory agents and anticoagulants/antithrombotics. Finally, the cardiovascular manifestations of COVID-19 are briefly touched upon. While there is still much to learn about SARS-CoV‑2, the tremendous recent advances in biomedical technology and knowledge and the huge amount of research into COVID-19 raise the hope that a remedy for this disease will soon be found. COVID-19 will nonetheless have a lasting impact on human society.

A deep dive into testing and management of COVID-19 for Australian high performance and professional sport

The purpose of testing for any communicable disease is to support clinicians in the diagnosis and management of individual patients and to describe transmission dynamics. The novel coronavirus is formally named SARS-CoV-2 and the clinical disease state resulting from an infection is known as COVID-19. Control of the COVID-19 pandemic requires clinicians, epidemiologists, and public health officials to utilise the most comprehensive, accurate and timely information available to manage the rapidly evolving COVID-19 environment. High performance sport is a unique context that may look towards comprehensive testing as a means of risk mitigation. Characteristics of the common testing options are discussed including the circumstances where additional testing may be of benefit and considerations for the associated risks. Finally, a review of the available technology that could be considered for use by medical staff at the point of care (PoC) in a high-performance sporting context is included.

Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China

BACKGROUND

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of March 31, 2020, a total of 82,631 cases of COVID-19 in China were confirmed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

METHODS

Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers.

RESULTS

A total of 198 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 139 dates of infections were identified among 14,829 confirmed cases outside Hubei Province as reported as of March 31, 2020. Based on this information, we found that the serial interval had an average of 4.60 days with a standard deviation of 5.55 days, the incubation period had an average of 8.00 days with a standard deviation of 4.75 days and the infectious period had an average of 13.96 days with a standard deviation of 5.20 days. The estimated controlled reproduction numbers, Rc, produced by all three methods in all analyzed regions of China are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R0.

CONCLUSIONS

The controlled reproduction number in China is much lower than one in all regions of China by now. It fell below one within 30 days from the implementations of unprecedent containment measures, which indicates that the strong measures taken by China government was effective to contain the epidemic. Nonetheless, efforts are still needed in order to end the current epidemic as imported cases from overseas pose a high risk of a second outbreak.

Tracing and analysis of 288 early SARS-CoV-2 infections outside China: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

In the early months of 2020, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly from China across multiple countries worldwide. As of March 17, 2020, COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. We collected data on COVID-19 cases outside China during the early phase of the pandemic and used them to predict trends in importations and quantify the proportion of undetected imported cases.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Two hundred and eighty-eight cases have been confirmed out of China from January 3 to February 13, 2020. We collected and synthesized all available information on these cases from official sources and media. We analyzed importations that were successfully isolated and those leading to onward transmission. We modeled their number over time, in relation to the origin of travel (Hubei province, other Chinese provinces, other countries) and interventions. We characterized the importation timeline to assess the rapidity of isolation and epidemiologically linked clusters to estimate the rate of detection. We found a rapid exponential growth of importations from Hubei, corresponding to a doubling time of 2.8 days, combined with a slower growth from the other areas. We predicted a rebound of importations from South East Asia in the successive weeks. Time from travel to detection has considerably decreased since first importation, from 14.5 ± 5.5 days on January 5, 2020, to 6 ± 3.5 days on February 1, 2020. However, we estimated 36% of detection of imported cases. This study is restricted to the early phase of the pandemic, when China was the only large epicenter and foreign countries had not discovered extensive local transmission yet. Missing information in case history was accounted for through modeling and imputation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that travel bans and containment strategies adopted in China were effective in reducing the exportation growth rate. However, the risk of importation was estimated to increase again from other sources in South East Asia. Surveillance and management of traveling cases represented a priority in the early phase of the epidemic. With the majority of imported cases going undetected (6 out of 10), countries experienced several undetected clusters of chains of local transmissions, fueling silent epidemics in the community. These findings become again critical to prevent second waves, now that countries have reduced their epidemic activity and progressively phase out lockdown.

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability-by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.

Can quantitative RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 help in better management of patients and control of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), represents a public health emergency of unprecedented proportion. The global containment efforts have been focused on testing, tracing of contacts and treatment (isolation) of those found COVID-19 positive. Since the whole genome sequences of a number of strains of this novel RNA virus were available in the public domain by early January 2020, a number of real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) protocols were designed and used for diagnosis of this infection. Most RT-PCRs are designed for qualitative COVID-19 reporting (SARS-CoV-2 detected or not detected), but have been used for semi-quantitative estimation of viral load based on cycle threshold value. Our manuscript discusses the utility of quantitative PCR testing for COVID-19 and its patient management benefits.

The Australian Institute of Sport framework for rebooting sport in a COVID-19 environment

Sport makes an important contribution to the physical, psychological and emotional well-being of Australians. The economic contribution of sport is equivalent to 2-3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The COVID-19 pandemic has had devastating effects on communities globally, leading to significant restrictions on all sectors of society, including sport. Resumption of sport can significantly contribute to the re-establishment of normality in Australian society. The Australian Institute of Sport (AIS), in consultation with sport partners (National Institute Network (NIN) Directors, NIN Chief Medical Officers (CMOs), National Sporting Organisation (NSO) Presidents, NSO Performance Directors and NSO CMOs), has developed a framework to inform the resumption of sport. National Principles for Resumption of Sport were used as a guide in the development of 'the AIS Framework for Rebooting Sport in a COVID-19 Environment' (the AIS Framework); and based on current best evidence, and guidelines from the Australian Federal Government, extrapolated into the sporting context by specialists in sport and exercise medicine, infectious diseases and public health. The principles outlined in this document apply to high performance/professional, community and individual passive (non-contact) sport. The AIS Framework is a timely tool of minimum baseline of standards, for 'how' reintroduction of sport activity will occur in a cautious and methodical manner, based on the best available evidence to optimise athlete and community safety. Decisions regarding the timing of resumption (the 'when') of sporting activity must be made in close consultation with Federal, State/Territory and/or Local Public Health Authorities. The priority at all times must be to preserve public health, minimising the risk of community transmission.

Pathogenesis and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in golden hamsters

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus with high nucleotide identity to SARS-CoV and to SARS-related coronaviruses that have been detected in horseshoe bats, has spread across the world and had a global effect on healthcare systems and economies^1,2. A suitable small animal model is needed to support the development of vaccines and therapies. Here we report the pathogenesis and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in golden (Syrian) hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus). Immunohistochemistry assay demonstrated the presence of viral antigens in nasal mucosa, bronchial epithelial cells and areas of lung consolidation on days 2 and 5 after inoculation with SARS-CoV-2, followed by rapid viral clearance and pneumocyte hyperplasia at 7 days after inoculation. We also found viral antigens in epithelial cells of the duodenum, and detected viral RNA in faeces. Notably, SARS-CoV-2 was transmitted efficiently from inoculated hamsters to naive hamsters by direct contact and via aerosols. Transmission via fomites in soiled cages was not as efficient. Although viral RNA was continuously detected in the nasal washes of inoculated hamsters for 14 days, the communicable period was short and correlated with the detection of infectious virus but not viral RNA. Inoculated and naturally infected hamsters showed apparent weight loss on days 6-7 post-inoculation or post-contact; all hamsters returned to their original weight within 14 days and developed neutralizing antibodies. Our results suggest that features associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in golden hamsters resemble those found in humans with mild SARS-CoV-2 infections.

A metabolic handbook for the COVID-19 pandemic

For infectious-disease outbreaks, clinical solutions typically focus on efficient pathogen destruction. However, the COVID-19 pandemic provides a reminder that infectious diseases are complex, multisystem conditions, and a holistic understanding will be necessary to maximize survival. For COVID-19 and all other infectious diseases, metabolic processes are intimately connected to the mechanisms of disease pathogenesis and the resulting pathology and pathophysiology, as well as the host defence response to the infection. Here, I examine the relationship between metabolism and COVID-19. I discuss why preexisting metabolic abnormalities, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, may be important risk factors for severe and critical cases of infection, highlighting parallels between the pathophysiology of these metabolic abnormalities and the disease course of COVID-19. I also discuss how metabolism at the cellular, tissue and organ levels might be harnessed to promote defence against the infection, with a focus on disease-tolerance mechanisms, and speculate on the long-term metabolic consequences for survivors of COVID-19.

Pediatric laryngoscopy and bronchoscopy during the COVID-19 pandemic: A four-center collaborative protocol to improve safety with perioperative management strategies and creation of a surgical tent with disposable drapes

Aerosolization procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic place all operating room personnel at risk for exposure. We offer detailed perioperative management strategies and present a specific protocol designed to improve safety during pediatric laryngoscopy and bronchoscopy. Several methods of using disposable drapes for various procedures are described, with the goal of constructing a tent around the patient to decrease widespread contamination of dispersed droplets and generated aerosol. The concepts presented herein are translatable to future situations where aerosol generating procedures increase risk for any pathogenic exposure. This protocol is a collaborative effort based on knowledge gleaned from clinical and simulation experience from Children's Hospital Colorado, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, The Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto, and Boston Children's Hospital.

[COVID-19 preparedness in ophthalmology]

BACKGROUND

Healthcare work is a risk factor for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

OBJECTIVES

To review risk mitigation strategies in ophthalmology during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Risk mitigation strategies to maintain ophthalmology care, to prevent collateral damage from care disruption, and to prevent the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are summarized based on the example of a tertiary referral center in Germany.

RESULTS

Clinical management strategies included restricted access to buildings, triage systems, telemedicine approaches, strategies for rapid treat and release, and transparent communication strategies. Strategies to protect patients and staff relied on both standard hygiene precautions and the use of personal protective equipment for prevention of droplet infections. Physical barriers supported risk mitigation strategies.

CONCLUSION

To maintain ophthalmological care during the COVID-19 pandemic, a coordinated, multifaceted approach using risk mitigation strategies to protect staff, patients, and the public was initiated.

Forecasting the daily and cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 pandemic in India

The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic was announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Government of India declared a nationwide lockdown on March 25, 2020 to prevent community transmission of the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19. Due to the absence of specific antivirals or vaccine, mathematical modeling plays an important role in better understanding the disease dynamics and in designing strategies to control the rapidly spreading infectious disease. In our study, we developed a new compartmental model that explains the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We calibrated our proposed model with daily COVID-19 data for four Indian states, namely, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Chandigarh. We study the qualitative properties of the model, including feasible equilibria and their stability with respect to the basic reproduction number R₀. The disease-free equilibrium becomes stable and the endemic equilibrium becomes unstable when the recovery rate of infected individuals increases, but if the disease transmission rate remains higher, then the endemic equilibrium always remains stable. For the estimated model parameters, R₀>1 for all four states, which suggests the significant outbreak of COVID-19. Short-time prediction shows the increasing trend of daily and cumulative cases of COVID-19 for the four states of India.

Meta-analysis of several epidemic characteristics of COVID-19

As the COVID-19 pandemic has strongly disrupted people's daily work and life, a great amount of scientific research has been conducted to understand the key characteristics of this new epidemic. In this manuscript, we focus on four crucial epidemic metrics with regard to the COVID-19, namely the basic reproduction number, the incubation period, the serial interval and the epidemic doubling time. We collect relevant studies based on the COVID-19 data in China and conduct a meta-analysis to obtain pooled estimates on the four metrics. From the summary results, we conclude that the COVID-19 has stronger transmissibility than SARS, implying that stringent public health strategies are necessary.

A combined oropharyngeal/nares swab is a suitable alternative to nasopharyngeal swabs for the detection of SARS-CoV-2

Given the global shortage of nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs typically used for respiratory virus detection, alternative collection methods were evaluated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study showed that a combined oropharyngeal/nares swab is a suitable alternative to NP swabs for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, with sensitivities of 91.7% and 94.4%, respectively.

The first, holistic immunological model of COVID-19: Implications for prevention, diagnosis, and public health measures

The natural history of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 is extremely variable, ranging from asymptomatic or mild infection, mainly in children, to multi-organ failure, eventually fatal, mainly in the eldest. We propose here the first model explaining how the outcome of first, crucial 10-15 days after infection, depends on the balance between the cumulative dose of viral exposure and the efficacy of the local innate immune response (natural IgA and IgM antibodies, mannose-binding lectin). If SARS-CoV-2 runs the blockade of this innate immunity and spreads from the upper airways to the alveoli in the early phases of the infections, it can replicate with no local resistance, causing pneumonia and releasing high amounts of antigens. The delayed and strong adaptive immune response (high-affinity IgM and IgG antibodies) that follows, causes severe inflammation and triggers mediator cascades (complement, coagulation, and cytokine storm), leading to complications often requiring intensive therapy and being, in some patients, fatal. Low-moderate physical activity can still be recommended. However, extreme physical activity and oral breathing with hyperventilation during the incubation days and early stages of COVID-19 facilitates re-inhalation and early direct penetration of high numbers of own virus particles in the lower airways and the alveoli, without impacting on the airway's mucosae covered by neutralizing antibodies ("viral auto-inhalation" phenomenon). This allows the virus to bypass the efficient immune barrier of the upper airway mucosa in already infected, young, and otherwise healthy athletes. In conclusion, whether the virus or the adaptive immune response reaches the lungs first is a crucial factor deciding the fate of the patient. This "quantitative and time-/sequence-dependent" model has several implications for prevention, diagnosis, and therapy of COVID-19 at all ages.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States

Importance

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses an existential threat to many US residential colleges; either they open their doors to students in September or they risk serious financial consequences.

Objective

To define severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) screening performance standards that would permit the safe return of students to US residential college campuses for the fall 2020 semester.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This analytic modeling study included a hypothetical cohort of 4990 students without SARS-CoV-2 infection and 10 with undetected, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at the start of the semester. The decision and cost-effectiveness analyses were linked to a compartmental epidemic model to evaluate symptom-based screening and tests of varying frequency (ie, every 1, 2, 3, and 7 days), sensitivity (ie, 70%-99%), specificity (ie, 98%-99.7%), and cost (ie, $10/test-$50/test). Reproductive numbers (Rt) were 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5, defining 3 epidemic scenarios, with additional infections imported via exogenous shocks. The model assumed a symptomatic case fatality risk of 0.05% and a 30% probability that infection would eventually lead to observable COVID-19-defining symptoms in the cohort. Model projections were for an 80-day, abbreviated fall 2020 semester. This study adhered to US government guidance for parameterization data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cumulative tests, infections, and costs; daily isolation dormitory census; incremental cost-effectiveness; and budget impact.

Results

At the start of the semester, the hypothetical cohort of 5000 students included 4990 (99.8%) with no SARS-CoV-2 infection and 10 (0.2%) with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Assuming an Rt of 2.5 and daily screening with 70% sensitivity, a test with 98% specificity yielded 162 cumulative student infections and a mean isolation dormitory daily census of 116, with 21 students (18%) with true-positive results. Screening every 2 days resulted in 243 cumulative infections and a mean daily isolation census of 76, with 28 students (37%) with true-positive results. Screening every 7 days resulted in 1840 cumulative infections and a mean daily isolation census of 121 students, with 108 students (90%) with true-positive results. Across all scenarios, test frequency was more strongly associated with cumulative infection than test sensitivity. This model did not identify symptom-based screening alone as sufficient to contain an outbreak under any of the scenarios we considered. Cost-effectiveness analysis selected screening with a test with 70% sensitivity every 2, 1, or 7 days as the preferred strategy for an Rt of 2.5, 3.5, or 1.5, respectively, implying screening costs of $470, $910, or $120, respectively, per student per semester.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this analytic modeling study, screening every 2 days using a rapid, inexpensive, and even poorly sensitive (>70%) test, coupled with strict behavioral interventions to keep Rt less than 2.5, is estimated to maintain a controllable number of COVID-19 infections and permit the safe return of students to campus.

Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

Covid-19: a comprehensive review of a formidable foe and the road ahead

INTRODUCTION

The Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) caused by the novel beta coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Within a short span, COVID-19 was declared a global public health emergency affecting 214 countries with 5,939,234 confirmed cases and 3,67,255 deaths as of 30 May 2020. With limited knowledge about SARS-CoV-2, no approved treatment or vaccine is available till date.

AREAS COVERED

We performed a review of literature on PubMed on the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 illness including trials of preventive and therapeutic measures. This review presents the basic biology of coronaviruses, epidemiology of COVID-19, clinical presentations, investigational therapies and vaccines, infection prevention and control measures and the lessons from the present pandemic.

EXPERT OPINION

The scale of the outbreak has brought the governments, health-care professionals, and scientists around the world under tremendous pressure to devise control strategies and develop novel prevention measures. While availability of vaccine for COVID-19 may take time, the disease may be contained through hand hygiene, physical distancing, travel restriction, and aggressive steps such as 'lockdown.' Clinical trials at different phases are ongoing across different countries to expedite the development of effective drugs and vaccine to overcome the pandemic.

Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19

Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

Lower nasopharyngeal viral load during the latest phase of COVID-19 pandemic in a Northern Italy University Hospital

Objectives

A milder clinical course of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has been anecdotally reported over the latest phase of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. Several factors may contribute to this observation, including the effect of lockdown, social distancing, lower humidity, lower air pollution, and potential changes in the intrinsic pathogenicity of the virus. In this regard, the clinical severity of COVID-19 could be attenuated by mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome that decrease its virulence, as well as by lower virus inocula.

Methods

In this pilot study, we compared the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) amplification profile of 100 nasopharyngeal swabs consecutively collected in April, during the peak of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, to that of 100 swabs collected using the same procedure in May.

Results

The mean Ct value of positive samples collected in May was significantly higher than that of samples collected in the previous period (ORF 1a/b gene: 31.85 ± 0.32 vs. 28.37 ± 0.5, p<0.001; E gene: 33.76 ± 0.38 vs. 29.79 ± 0.63, p<0.001), suggesting a lower viral load at the time of sampling. No significant differences were observed between male and females in the two periods, whilst higher viral loads were found in (i) patients over 60-years old, and (ii) patients that experienced severe COVID-19 during the early stages of the pandemic.

Conclusions

This pilot study prompts further investigation on the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 load and different clinical manifestation of COVID-19 during different phases of the pandemic. Laboratories should consider reporting quantitative viral load data in the molecular diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

COVID-19: test, trace and isolate-new epidemiological data

In the absence of an efficient drug treatment or a vaccine, the control of the COVID‐19 pandemic relies on classic infection control measures. Since these means are socially disruptive and come with substantial economic loss for societies, a better knowledge of the epidemiology of the new coronavirus epidemic is crucial to achieve control at a sustainable cost and within tolerable restrictions of civil rights.

COVID-19 symptoms predictive of healthcare workers' SARS-CoV-2 PCR results

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) is caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, transmissible both person-to-person and from contaminated surfaces. Early COVID-19 detection among healthcare workers (HCWs) is crucial for protecting patients and the healthcare workforce. Because of limited testing capacity, symptom-based screening may prioritize testing and increase diagnostic accuracy.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a retrospective study of HCWs undergoing both COVID-19 telephonic symptom screening and nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 assays during the period, March 9-April 15, 2020. HCWs with negative assays but progressive symptoms were re-tested for SARS-CoV-2. Among 592 HCWs tested, 83 (14%) had an initial positive SARS-CoV-2 assay. Fifty-nine of 61 HCWs (97%) who were asymptomatic or reported only sore throat/nasal congestion had negative SARS-CoV-2 assays (P = 0.006). HCWs reporting three or more symptoms had an increased multivariate-adjusted odds of having positive assays, 1.95 (95% CI: 1.10-3.64), which increased to 2.61 (95% CI: 1.50-4.45) for six or more symptoms. The multivariate-adjusted odds of a positive assay were also increased for HCWs reporting fever and a measured temperature ≥ 37.5°C (3.49 (95% CI: 1.95-6.21)), and those with myalgias (1.83 (95% CI: 1.04-3.23)). Anosmia/ageusia (i.e. loss of smell/loss of taste) was reported less frequently (16%) than other symptoms by HCWs with positive assays, but was associated with more than a seven-fold multivariate-adjusted odds of a positive test: OR = 7.21 (95% CI: 2.95-17.67). Of 509 HCWs with initial negative SARS-CoV-2 assays, nine had symptom progression and positive re-tests, yielding an estimated negative predictive value of 98.2% (95% CI: 96.8-99.0%) for the exclusion of clinically relevant COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptom and temperature reports are useful screening tools for predicting SARS-CoV-2 assay results in HCWs. Anosmia/ageusia, fever, and myalgia were the strongest independent predictors of positive assays. The absence of symptoms or symptoms limited to nasal congestion/sore throat were associated with negative assays.

Overview: Systemic Inflammatory Response Derived From Lung Injury Caused by SARS-CoV-2 Infection Explains Severe Outcomes in COVID-19

Most SARS-CoV2 infections will not develop into severe COVID-19. However, in some patients, lung infection leads to the activation of alveolar macrophages and lung epithelial cells that will release proinflammatory cytokines. IL-6, TNF, and IL-1β increase expression of cell adhesion molecules (CAMs) and VEGF, thereby increasing permeability of the lung endothelium and reducing barrier protection, allowing viral dissemination and infiltration of neutrophils and inflammatory monocytes. In the blood, these cytokines will stimulate the bone marrow to produce and release immature granulocytes, that return to the lung and further increase inflammation, leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This lung-systemic loop leads to cytokine storm syndrome (CSS). Concurrently, the acute phase response increases the production of platelets, fibrinogen and other pro-thrombotic factors. Systemic decrease in ACE2 function impacts the Renin-Angiotensin-Kallikrein-Kinin systems (RAS-KKS) increasing clotting. The combination of acute lung injury with RAS-KKS unbalance is herein called COVID-19 Associated Lung Injury (CALI). This conservative two-hit model of systemic inflammation due to the lung injury allows new intervention windows and is more consistent with the current knowledge.

Universal screening for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic obstetric patients in Tokyo, Japan

The prevalence of COVID‐19 in asymptomatic obstetric patients in Tokyo was shown to be 4% when universal screening was implemented. Physicians should pay attention to asymptomatic patients to prevent nosocomial infections.

A Proposed COVID-19 Testing Algorithm

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has led to physical distancing measures in numerous countries in an attempt to control the spread. However, these measures are not without cost to the health and economies of the nations in which they are enacted. Nations are now looking for methods to remove physical distancing measures and return to full functioning. To prevent a massive second wave of infections, this must be done with a data-driven methodology. The purpose of this article is to propose an algorithm for COVID-19 testing that would allow for physical distancing to be scaled back in a stepwise manner, which limits ensuing infections and protects the capacity of the health care system.

Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model

We explore a standard epidemiological model, known as the SIRD model, to study the COVID-19 infection in India, and a few other countries around the world. We use (a) the stable cumulative infection of various countries and (b) the number of infection versus the tests carried out to evaluate the model. The time-dependent infection rate is set in the model to obtain the best fit with the available data. The model is simulated aiming to project the probable features of the infection in India, various Indian states, and other countries. India imposed an early lockdown to contain the infection that can be treated by its healthcare system. We find that with the current infection rate and containment measures, the total active infection in India would be maximum at the end of June or beginning of July 2020. With proper containment measures in the infected zones and social distancing, the infection is expected to fall considerably from August. If the containment measures are relaxed before the arrival of the peak infection, more people from the susceptible population will fall sick as the infection is expected to see a threefold rise at the peak. If the relaxation is given a month after the peak infection, a second peak with a moderate infection will follow. However, a gradual relaxation of the lockdown started well ahead of the peak infection, leads to a nearly twofold increase of the peak infection with no second peak. The model is further extended to incorporate the infection arising from the population showing no symptoms. The preliminary finding suggests that random testing needs to be carried out within the asymptomatic population to contain the spread of the disease. Our model provides a semi-quantitative overview of the progression of COVID-19 in India, with model projections reasonably replicating the current progress. The projection of the model is highly sensitive to the choice of the parameters and the available data.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Nursing Homes, Barcelona, Spain, April 2020

During the coronavirus disease pandemic in Spain, from April 10-24, 2020, a total of 5,869 persons were screened for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 at nursing homes. Among residents, 768 (23.9%) tested positive; among staff, 403 (15.2%). Of those testing positive, 69.7% of residents and 55.8% of staff were asymptomatic.

In vivo antiviral host response to SARS-CoV-2 by viral load, sex, and age

Despite limited genomic diversity, SARS-CoV-2 has shown a wide range of clinical manifestations in different patient populations. The mechanisms behind these host differences are still unclear. Here, we examined host response gene expression across infection status, viral load, age, and sex among shotgun RNA-sequencing profiles of nasopharyngeal swabs from 430 individuals with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and 54 negative controls. SARS-CoV-2 induced a strong antiviral response with upregulation of antiviral factors such as OAS1-3 and IFIT1-3 , and Th1 chemokines CXCL9/10/11 , as well as a reduction in transcription of ribosomal proteins. SARS-CoV-2 culture in human airway epithelial cultures replicated the in vivo antiviral host response. Patient-matched longitudinal specimens (mean elapsed time = 6.3 days) demonstrated reduction in interferon-induced transcription, recovery of transcription of ribosomal proteins, and initiation of wound healing and humoral immune responses. Expression of interferon-responsive genes, including ACE2 , increased as a function of viral load, while transcripts for B cell-specific proteins and neutrophil chemokines were elevated in patients with lower viral load. Older individuals had reduced expression of Th1 chemokines CXCL9/10/11 and their cognate receptor, CXCR3 , as well as CD8A and granzyme B, suggesting deficiencies in trafficking and/or function of cytotoxic T cells and natural killer (NK) cells. Relative to females, males had reduced B and NK cell-specific transcripts and an increase in inhibitors of NF-κB signaling, possibly inappropriately throttling antiviral responses. Collectively, our data demonstrate that host responses to SARS-CoV-2 are dependent on viral load and infection time course, with observed differences due to age and sex that may contribute to disease severity.

[Management of diagnostic procedures and treatment of sleep related breathing disorders in the context of the coronavirus pandemic]

When providing sleep medical services special aspects must be taken into account in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite all prevention, due to the high number of unrecognized cases, SARS-CoV2 contacts in the sleep laboratory must be expected and appropriate precautions are necessary. Nevertheless, the continuation or resumption of sleep medical services under the appropriate hygiene measures is strongly recommended to avoid medical and psychosocial complications. There is no evidence for a deterioration of COVID-19 through CPAP therapy. In principle, the application of positive pressure therapy via various mask systems can be accompanied by the formation of infectious aerosols. In the case of confirmed infection with SARS-CoV2, a pre-existing PAP therapy should be continued in an outpatient setting in accordance with the local guidelines for home isolation, since discontinuation of PAP therapy is associated with additional cardiopulmonary complications due to the untreated sleep-related breathing disorder. According to the current state of knowledge inhalation therapy, nasal high-flow (NHF), and PAP therapy can be carried out without increased risk of infection for health care workers (HCW) as long as appropriate personal protective equipment (eye protection, FFP2 or FFP-3 mask, gown) is being used.This position paper of the German Society for Pneumology and Respiratory Medicine (DGP) and the German Society for Sleep Medicine (DGSM) offers detailed recommendations for the implementation of sleep medicine diagnostics and therapy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Using influenza surveillance networks to estimate state-specific prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied heavily on RT-PCR testing. However, limited test availability, high false-negative rates, and the existence of asymptomatic or sub-clinical infections have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show how influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be used to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We found a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average in March 2020 and showed that this surge correlated with COVID-19 case counts across states. If 1/3 of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US sought care, this ILI surge would have corresponded to more than 8.7 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections across the US during the three-week period from March 8 to March 28, 2020. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to have been doubling slower than every 4 days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID-19 epidemic in the US characterized by rapid spread across the US with over 80% infected patients remaining undetected. We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data and discuss the broader potential to use syndromic surveillance for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases.

COVID-19 Outpatient Screening: a Prediction Score for Adverse Events

BACKGROUND

We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death in patients at risk for COVID-19 presenting for urgent care during the Massachusetts outbreak.

METHODS

Single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics (RICs) or the emergency department (ED), including development (n = 9381, March 7-May 2) and prospective (n = 2205, May 3-14) cohorts. Data was queried from Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness or death within 7 days. We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) using automatically extracted data from the electronic medical record and learning-to-rank ordinal logistic regression modeling. Calibration was assessed using predicted-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by C-statistics (AUC).

RESULTS

In the development cohort, 27.3%, 7.2%, and 1.1% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively; and in the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5%. CoVA showed excellent performance in the development cohort (concurrent validation) for hospitalization (E/O: 1.00, AUC: 0.80); for critical illness (E/O: 1.00, AUC: 0.82); and for death (E/O: 1.00, AUC: 0.87). Performance in the prospective cohort (prospective validation) was similar for hospitalization (E/O: 1.01, AUC: 0.76); for critical illness (E/O 1.03, AUC: 0.79); and for death (E/O: 1.63, AUC=0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top five were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate.

CONCLUSIONS

CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score to assessing risk for adverse outcomes related to COVID-19 infection in the outpatient setting.

Gastrointestinal Manifestations in COVID-19 Infection and Its Practical Applications

The latest novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, which emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, China, is a significant cause of the pandemic. This outbreak is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and is also commonly known as COVID-19. A typical symptom includes cough and fever, but a considerable number of patients can manifest gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, including diarrhea, which can be the initial presentations and may or may not present with respiratory symptoms or fever. COVID-19 virus may be present in stool samples of patients infected with COVID-19, and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is a receptor for this virus, which is substantially present in GI epithelial cells. The wide availability of this receptor facilitates COVID-19 infection to be proactive and multiply in the GI tract. Although no antiviral treatments have been approved, several approaches have been proposed, and at present, optimized supportive care remains the mainstay of therapy. Elective endoscopic procedures should be delayed, but the urgent procedures should be performed as indicated. Due to the rapidly evolving data on COVID-19, it is difficult to keep up with the outpouring of information. We reviewed the mechanisms, clinical manifestation, impact on pre-existing liver diseases, and recommendations endorsed by the several GI societies for the management and prevention of its transmission.

Evidence Supporting Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 While Presymptomatic or Asymptomatic

Recent epidemiologic, virologic, and modeling reports support the possibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission from persons who are presymptomatic (SARS-CoV-2 detected before symptom onset) or asymptomatic (SARS-CoV-2 detected but symptoms never develop). SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of symptoms reinforces the value of measures that prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by infected persons who may not exhibit illness despite being infectious. Critical knowledge gaps include the relative incidence of asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, the public health interventions that prevent asymptomatic transmission, and the question of whether asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection confers protective immunity.

Effective control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between healthcare workers during a period of diminished community prevalence of COVID-19

Previously, we showed that 3% (31/1032)of asymptomatic healthcare workers (HCWs) from a large teaching hospital in Cambridge, UK, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in April 2020. About 15% (26/169) HCWs with symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) also tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Rivett et al., 2020). Here, we show that the proportion of both asymptomatic and symptomatic HCWs testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 rapidly declined to near-zero between 25th April and 24th May 2020, corresponding to a decline in patient admissions with COVID-19 during the ongoing UK 'lockdown'. These data demonstrate how infection prevention and control measures including staff testing may help prevent hospitals from becoming independent 'hubs' of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and illustrate how, with appropriate precautions, organizations in other sectors may be able to resume on-site work safely.