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4051
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Bragazzi NL, Riccò M, Pacifico A, Malagoli P, Kridin K, Pigatto P, Damiani G. COVID-19 knowledge prevents biologics discontinuation: Data from an Italian multicenter survey during RED-ZONE declaration. Dermatol Ther 2020; 33:e13508. [PMID: 32415727 PMCID: PMC7267153 DOI: 10.1111/dth.13508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2020] [Revised: 04/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
SARS‐CoV‐2 become pandemics and there is still a dearth of data about its the potentially among dermatological patients under biologics. We aimed to assess health literacy, disease knowledge, treatment dissatisfaction and biologics attitudes toward COVID‐19. We performed a cross‐sectional, questionnaire‐based survey on 98/105 consecutive dermatological patients treated with biologics—51 suffering from plaque psoriasis, 22 from atopic dermatitis, and 25 from hidradenitis suppurativa. An ad hoc, validated questionnaire has 44 items investigating the following domains: knowledge of COVID‐19 related to (a) epidemiology, (b) pathogenesis, (c) clinical symptoms, (d) preventive measures, and (e) attitudes. Patients data and questionnaires were collected. Despite only 8.1% thought that biologics may increase the risk of COVID‐19, 18.4% and 21.4% of the patients were evaluating the possibility to discontinue or modify the dosage of the current biologic therapy, respectively. Globally, male patients (P = .001) with higher scholarity level (P = .005) displayed higher knowledge of COVID‐19. Patients with lower DLQI (P = .006), longer disease duration (P = .051) and lower scholarity (P = .007) have thought to discontinue/modify autonomously their biologic therapy. At the multivariate logistic regression, only the knowledge of epidemiology and preventive measures resulted independent predictors of continuation vs discontinuation and modification vs no modification, respectively. Dermatologists should promote COVID‐19 knowledge to prevent biologics disruption.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Matteo Riccò
- Postgraduate School of Public Health, Department of Health Sciences (DISSAL), University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
| | | | | | - Khalaf Kridin
- Lűbeck Institute of Experimental Dermatology, University of Lűbeck, Lűbeck, Germany
| | - Paolo Pigatto
- Clinical Dermatology, IRCCS Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi, Milan, Italy.,Department of Biomedical, Surgical and Dental Sciences, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Giovanni Damiani
- Clinical Dermatology, IRCCS Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi, Milan, Italy.,Department of Biomedical, Surgical and Dental Sciences, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
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4052
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Ammar A, Brach M, Trabelsi K, Chtourou H, Boukhris O, Masmoudi L, Bouaziz B, Bentlage E, How D, Ahmed M, Müller P, Müller N, Aloui A, Hammouda O, Paineiras-Domingos LL, Braakman-Jansen A, Wrede C, Bastoni S, Pernambuco CS, Mataruna L, Taheri M, Irandoust K, Khacharem A, Bragazzi NL, Chamari K, Glenn JM, Bott NT, Gargouri F, Chaari L, Batatia H, Ali GM, Abdelkarim O, Jarraya M, El Abed K, Souissi N, Van Gemert-Pijnen L, Riemann BL, Riemann L, Moalla W, Gómez-Raja J, Epstein M, Sanderman R, Schulz SVW, Jerg A, Al-Horani R, Mansi T, Jmail M, Barbosa F, Ferreira-Santos F, Šimunič B, Pišot R, Gaggioli A, Bailey SJ, Steinacker JM, Driss T, Hoekelmann A. Effects of COVID-19 Home Confinement on Eating Behaviour and Physical Activity: Results of the ECLB-COVID19 International Online Survey. Nutrients 2020; 12:E1583. [PMID: 32481594 PMCID: PMC7352706 DOI: 10.3390/nu12061583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1157] [Impact Index Per Article: 289.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Revised: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 05/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Public health recommendations and governmental measures during the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in numerous restrictions on daily living including social distancing, isolation and home confinement. While these measures are imperative to abate the spreading of COVID-19, the impact of these restrictions on health behaviours and lifestyles at home is undefined. Therefore, an international online survey was launched in April 2020, in seven languages, to elucidate the behavioural and lifestyle consequences of COVID-19 restrictions. This report presents the results from the first thousand responders on physical activity (PA) and nutrition behaviours. METHODS Following a structured review of the literature, the "Effects of home Confinement on multiple Lifestyle Behaviours during the COVID-19 outbreak (ECLB-COVID19)" Electronic survey was designed by a steering group of multidisciplinary scientists and academics. The survey was uploaded and shared on the Google online survey platform. Thirty-five research organisations from Europe, North-Africa, Western Asia and the Americas promoted the survey in English, German, French, Arabic, Spanish, Portuguese and Slovenian languages. Questions were presented in a differential format, with questions related to responses "before" and "during" confinement conditions. RESULTS 1047 replies (54% women) from Asia (36%), Africa (40%), Europe (21%) and other (3%) were included in the analysis. The COVID-19 home confinement had a negative effect on all PA intensity levels (vigorous, moderate, walking and overall). Additionally, daily sitting time increased from 5 to 8 h per day. Food consumption and meal patterns (the type of food, eating out of control, snacks between meals, number of main meals) were more unhealthy during confinement, with only alcohol binge drinking decreasing significantly. CONCLUSION While isolation is a necessary measure to protect public health, results indicate that it alters physical activity and eating behaviours in a health compromising direction. A more detailed analysis of survey data will allow for a segregation of these responses in different age groups, countries and other subgroups, which will help develop interventions to mitigate the negative lifestyle behaviours that have manifested during the COVID-19 confinement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Achraf Ammar
- Institute of Sport Science, Otto-von-Guericke University, 39106 Magdeburg, Germany; (A.H.)
- Research Laboratory, Molecular Bases of Human Pathology, LR12ES17, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia;
| | - Michael Brach
- Institute of Sport and Exercise Sciences, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany; (M.B.); (E.B.); (D.H.); (M.A.)
| | - Khaled Trabelsi
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
- Research Laboratory: Education, Motricity, Sport and Health, EM2S, LR19JS01, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia
| | - Hamdi Chtourou
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
- Research Unit: Physical Activity, Sport, and Health, UR18JS01, National Observatory of Sport, Tunis 1003, Tunisia; (H.C.); (O.B.); (A.A.); (N.S.)
| | - Omar Boukhris
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
- Research Unit: Physical Activity, Sport, and Health, UR18JS01, National Observatory of Sport, Tunis 1003, Tunisia; (H.C.); (O.B.); (A.A.); (N.S.)
| | - Liwa Masmoudi
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
| | - Bassem Bouaziz
- Higher Institute of Computer Science and Multimedia of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (B.B.); (F.G.)
| | - Ellen Bentlage
- Institute of Sport and Exercise Sciences, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany; (M.B.); (E.B.); (D.H.); (M.A.)
| | - Daniella How
- Institute of Sport and Exercise Sciences, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany; (M.B.); (E.B.); (D.H.); (M.A.)
| | - Mona Ahmed
- Institute of Sport and Exercise Sciences, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany; (M.B.); (E.B.); (D.H.); (M.A.)
| | - Patrick Müller
- Research Group Neuroprotection, German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE), Leipziger Str. 44, 39120 Magdeburg, Germany; (P.M.); (N.M.)
- Medical Faculty, Department of Neurology, Otto-von-Guericke University, Leipziger Str. 44, 39120 Magdeburg, Germany
| | - Notger Müller
- Research Group Neuroprotection, German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE), Leipziger Str. 44, 39120 Magdeburg, Germany; (P.M.); (N.M.)
- Medical Faculty, Department of Neurology, Otto-von-Guericke University, Leipziger Str. 44, 39120 Magdeburg, Germany
| | - Asma Aloui
- Research Unit: Physical Activity, Sport, and Health, UR18JS01, National Observatory of Sport, Tunis 1003, Tunisia; (H.C.); (O.B.); (A.A.); (N.S.)
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education, University of Gafsa, 2112 Gafsa, Tunisia
| | - Omar Hammouda
- Research Laboratory, Molecular Bases of Human Pathology, LR12ES17, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia;
| | - Laisa Liane Paineiras-Domingos
- Laboratório de Vibrações Mecânicas e Práticas Integrativas, LAVIMPI-UERJ, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20950-003, Brazil;
- Faculdade Bezerra de Araújo, Rio de Janeiro, Rj 23052-180, Brazil
| | - Annemarie Braakman-Jansen
- Department of Psychology, Health & Technology, University of Twente, 7522 Enschede, The Netherland; (A.B.-J.); (C.W.); (L.V.G.-P.)
| | - Christian Wrede
- Department of Psychology, Health & Technology, University of Twente, 7522 Enschede, The Netherland; (A.B.-J.); (C.W.); (L.V.G.-P.)
| | - Sofia Bastoni
- Department of Psychology, Health & Technology, University of Twente, 7522 Enschede, The Netherland; (A.B.-J.); (C.W.); (L.V.G.-P.)
- Department of Psychology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 20123 Milano, Italy; (S.B.); (A.G.)
| | - Carlos Soares Pernambuco
- Laboratório de Fisiologia do Exercício, Estácio de Sá University, Rio de Janeiro 20261-063, Brasil;
| | - Leonardo Mataruna
- College of Business Administration, American University in the Emirates, 503000 Dubai Academic City, Dubai, UAE;
| | - Morteza Taheri
- Faculty of social science, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin 34148-96818, Iran; (M.T.); (K.I.)
| | - Khadijeh Irandoust
- Faculty of social science, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin 34148-96818, Iran; (M.T.); (K.I.)
| | - Aïmen Khacharem
- UVHC, DeVisu, Valenciennes; LIRTES-EA 7313, Université Paris Est Créteil Val de Marne, 94000 Créteil, France;
| | - Nicola L. Bragazzi
- Department of Health Sciences (DISSAL), Postgraduate School of Public Health, University of Genoa, 16132 Genoa, Italy;
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Karim Chamari
- ASPETAR, Qatar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha 29222, Qatar;
- Laboratory “Sport Performance Optimization”, (CNMSS); ISSEP Ksar-Said, Manouba University, 2010 Manouba, Tunisia
| | - Jordan M. Glenn
- Exercise Science Research Center, Department of Health, Human Performance and Recreation, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA;
| | - Nicholas T. Bott
- Clinical Excellence Research Center, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA;
| | - Faiez Gargouri
- Higher Institute of Computer Science and Multimedia of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (B.B.); (F.G.)
| | - Lotfi Chaari
- Computer science department, University of Toulouse, IRIT-INP-ENSEEIHT (UMR 5505), BP 7122, 31500 Toulouse, France; (L.C.); (H.B.)
| | - Hadj Batatia
- Computer science department, University of Toulouse, IRIT-INP-ENSEEIHT (UMR 5505), BP 7122, 31500 Toulouse, France; (L.C.); (H.B.)
| | - Gamal Mohamed Ali
- Faculty of Physical Education, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt; (G.M.A.); (O.A.)
| | - Osama Abdelkarim
- Faculty of Physical Education, Assiut University, Assiut 71515, Egypt; (G.M.A.); (O.A.)
- Institute for Sports and Sports Science, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, 76131 Karlsruher, Germany
| | - Mohamed Jarraya
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
| | - Kais El Abed
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
| | - Nizar Souissi
- Research Unit: Physical Activity, Sport, and Health, UR18JS01, National Observatory of Sport, Tunis 1003, Tunisia; (H.C.); (O.B.); (A.A.); (N.S.)
| | - Lisette Van Gemert-Pijnen
- Department of Psychology, Health & Technology, University of Twente, 7522 Enschede, The Netherland; (A.B.-J.); (C.W.); (L.V.G.-P.)
| | - Bryan L. Riemann
- Department of Health Sciences and Kinesiology, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30458, USA;
| | | | - Wassim Moalla
- High Institute of Sport and Physical Education of Sfax, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (K.T.); (L.M.); (M.J.); (K.E.A.); (W.M.)
| | - Jonathan Gómez-Raja
- FundeSalud, Dept. of Health and Social Services, Government of Extremadura, 06800 Merida, Spain;
| | | | - Robbert Sanderman
- Department of Health Psychology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9712 Groningen, The Netherlands;
| | - Sebastian V. W. Schulz
- Sports- and Rehabilitation Medicine, Ulm University Hospital, Leimgrubenweg 14, 89075 Ulm, Germany; (S.V.W.S.); (A.J.); (J.M.S.)
| | - Achim Jerg
- Sports- and Rehabilitation Medicine, Ulm University Hospital, Leimgrubenweg 14, 89075 Ulm, Germany; (S.V.W.S.); (A.J.); (J.M.S.)
| | - Ramzi Al-Horani
- Department of Exercise Science, Yarmouk University, Irbid 21163, Jordan;
| | - Taiysir Mansi
- Faculty of Physical Education, The University of Jordan, 11942 Amman, Jordan;
| | - Mohamed Jmail
- Digital Research Centre of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia;
| | - Fernando Barbosa
- Laboratory of Neuropsychophysiology, Faculty of Psychology and Education Sciences, University of Porto, 4200-135 Porto, Portugal; (F.B.); (F.F.-S.)
| | - Fernando Ferreira-Santos
- Laboratory of Neuropsychophysiology, Faculty of Psychology and Education Sciences, University of Porto, 4200-135 Porto, Portugal; (F.B.); (F.F.-S.)
| | - Boštjan Šimunič
- Institute for Kinesiology Research, Science and Research Centre Koper, Garibaldijeva 1, 6000 Koper, Slovenia; (B.Š.); (R.P.)
| | - Rado Pišot
- Institute for Kinesiology Research, Science and Research Centre Koper, Garibaldijeva 1, 6000 Koper, Slovenia; (B.Š.); (R.P.)
| | - Andrea Gaggioli
- Department of Psychology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 20123 Milano, Italy; (S.B.); (A.G.)
- Applied Technology for Neuro-Psychology Lab, I.R.C.C.S. Istituto Auxologico Italiano, 20149 Milan, Italy
| | - Stephen J. Bailey
- School of Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences, Loughborough University, Loughborough E11 3TU, UK;
| | - Jürgen M. Steinacker
- Sports- and Rehabilitation Medicine, Ulm University Hospital, Leimgrubenweg 14, 89075 Ulm, Germany; (S.V.W.S.); (A.J.); (J.M.S.)
| | - Tarak Driss
- Interdisciplinary Laboratory in Neurosciences, Physiology and Psychology: Physical Activity, Health and Learning (LINP2-2APS), UFR STAPS, UPL, Paris Nanterre University, 92000 Nanterre, France;
| | - Anita Hoekelmann
- Institute of Sport Science, Otto-von-Guericke University, 39106 Magdeburg, Germany; (A.H.)
| | - On Behalf of the ECLB-COVID19 Consortium
- Institute of Sport Science, Otto-von-Guericke University, 39106 Magdeburg, Germany; (A.H.)
- Department of Health Sciences (DISSAL), Postgraduate School of Public Health, University of Genoa, 16132 Genoa, Italy;
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4053
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Bolay H, Gül A, Baykan B. COVID-19 is a Real Headache! Headache 2020; 60:1415-1421. [PMID: 32412101 PMCID: PMC7272895 DOI: 10.1111/head.13856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 146] [Impact Index Per Article: 36.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 05/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
After the emergence of a novel coronavirus named SARS‐CoV‐2, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) was initially characterized by fever, sore throat, cough, and dyspnea, mainly manifestations of respiratory system. However, other manifestations such as headache, abdominal pain, diarrhea, loss of taste and smell were added to the clinical spectrum, during the course of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The reports on the neurological findings are increasing rapidly and headache seems to be the leader on the symptom list. Headache was reported in 11%‐34% of the hospitalized COVID‐19 patients, but clinical features of these headaches were totally missing in available publications. According to our initial experience, significant features of headache presentation in the symptomatic COVID‐19 patients were new‐onset, moderate‐severe, bilateral headache with pulsating or pressing quality in the temporoparietal, forehead or periorbital region. The most striking features of the headache were sudden to gradual onset and poor response to common analgesics, or high relapse rate, that was limited to the active phase of the COVID‐19. Symptomatic COVID‐19 patients, around 6%‐10%, also reported headache as a presenting symptom. The possible pathophysiological mechanisms of headache include activation of peripheral trigeminal nerve endings by the SARS‐CoV‐2 directly or through the vasculopathy and/or increased circulating pro‐inflammatory cytokines and hypoxia. We concluded that as a common non‐respiratory symptom of COVID‐19, headache should not be overlooked, and its characteristics should be recorded with scrutiny.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hayrunnisa Bolay
- Department of Neurology and Algology, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ahmet Gül
- Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Department of Rheumatology, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Betül Baykan
- Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Headache Center, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
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4054
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The effect of Ramadan fasting on kidney function in patients with chronic kidney disease. Int Urol Nephrol 2020; 52:1337-1343. [PMID: 32458211 DOI: 10.1007/s11255-020-02506-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2020] [Accepted: 05/11/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Because of the increase in globalization, clinicians all over the world are confronted the questions about safety of Ramadan fasting. However, there is no clear information about whether there is an obstacle for fasting patients with chronic disease. Hence, in the present study, we aimed to investigate the effects of Ramadan fasting on kidney and the factors affecting this relationship in patients with chronic kidney disease. METHODS This study involving 117 patients [36 females, 81 males; mean age, 60 (46.0-70.0) years] with stage 2-3 chronic kidney and fasting. Patients were evaluated every 10 days for acute kidney injury (AKI) in Ramadan month. And, patients with acute kidney injury and patients without AKI were grouped. RESULTS When the patients were evaluated for AKI, we observed that in 27 patients had acute kidney injury. While patients without AKI fasted for more days (p < 0.001), urea levels and frequency of hypertension were higher in the group with AKI (p = 0.019; p = 0.025 respectively). We also performed univariate and multiple binary logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors of AKI. Hypertension and number of fasting day were found to be predictive of AKI (p = 0.02; p < 0.001 respectively). CONCLUSIONS We found a significant relationship between hypertension, the number of fasting days and acute kidney injury. Patients with chronic kidney damage and hypertension should be evaluated more carefully, informed about the importance of hydration after fasting and should be followed frequently for AKI.
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4055
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Frew JW, Jiang CS, Singh N, Grand D, Navrazhina K, Vaughan R, Krueger JG. Malignancy and infection risk during adalimumab therapy in hidradenitis suppurativa. Clin Exp Dermatol 2020; 45:859-865. [DOI: 10.1111/ced.14264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2020] [Revised: 03/12/2020] [Accepted: 04/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- J. W. Frew
- Laboratory of Investigative Dermatology Rockefeller University New York NY USA
| | - C. S. Jiang
- Department of Biostatistics Rockefeller University New York NY USA
| | - N. Singh
- Department of Biostatistics Rockefeller University New York NY USA
| | - D. Grand
- Laboratory of Investigative Dermatology Rockefeller University New York NY USA
- Albert Einstein College of Medicine Bronx, New York NY USA
| | - K. Navrazhina
- Laboratory of Investigative Dermatology Rockefeller University New York NY USA
- Weill Cornell/Rockefeller/Sloan Kettering Tri‐Institutional MD‐PhD Program Weill Cornell University New York NY USA
| | - R. Vaughan
- Department of Biostatistics Rockefeller University New York NY USA
| | - J. G. Krueger
- Laboratory of Investigative Dermatology Rockefeller University New York NY USA
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4056
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CAO S, FENG P, SHI P. [Study on the epidemic development of COVID-19 in Hubei province by a modified SEIR model]. Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban 2020; 49:178-184. [PMID: 32391661 PMCID: PMC8800716 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2020.02.05] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2020] [Accepted: 02/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To establish a SEIR epidemic dynamics model that can be used to evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic, and to predict and evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province using the proposed model. METHODS COVID-19 SEIR transmission dynamics model was established, which took transmission ability in latent period and tracking quarantine interventions into consideration. Based on the epidemic data of Hubei province from January 23, 2020 to February 24, 2020, the parameters of the newly established modified SEIR model were fitted. By using Euler integral algorithm to solve the modified SEIR dynamics model, the epidemic situation in Hubei province was analyzed, and the impact of prevention and control measures such as quarantine and centralized treatment on the epidemic development was discussed. RESULTS The theoretical estimation of the epidemic situation by the modified SEIR epidemic dynamics model is in good agreement with the actual situation in Hubei province. Theoretical analysis showed that prevention and control quarantine and medical follow-up quarantine played an important inhibitory effect on the outbreak of the epidemic.The centralized treatment played a key role in the rapid decline in the number of infected people. In addition, it is suggested that individuals should improve their prevention awareness and take strict self-protection measures to curb the increase in infected people. CONCLUSIONS The modified SEIR model is reliable in the evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province, which provides a theoretical reference for the decision-making of epidemic interventions.
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4057
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HE Y, ZHENG C. [Replication and transmission mechanisms of highly pathogenic human coronavirus]. Zhejiang Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban 2020; 49:324-339. [PMID: 32762165 PMCID: PMC8800760 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2020.03.16] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
The three known highly pathogenic human coronaviruses are severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Human highly pathogenic coronaviruses are composed of non-structural proteins, structural proteins, accessory proteins and ribonucleic acid. Viral particles recognize host receptors via spike glycoprotein (S protein), enter host cells by membrane fusion, replicate in host cells through large replication-transcription complexes, and promote proliferation by interfering with and suppressing the host's immune response. Highly pathogenic human coronaviruses are hosted by humans and vertebrates. Viral particles are transmitted through droplets, contact and aerosols or likely through digestive tract, urine, eyes and other routes. This review discusses the mechanisms of replication and transmission of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses providing basis for future studies on interrupting the transmission and pathogenicity of these pathogenic viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Chanying ZHENG
- 郑婵颖(1978-), 女, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 主要从事脑功能和蛋白质分子机制研究; E-mail:
;
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8389-2101
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4058
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Javanmard SH, Otroj Z. Ramadan Fasting and Risk of Covid-19. Int J Prev Med 2020; 11:60. [PMID: 32577190 PMCID: PMC7297426 DOI: 10.4103/ijpvm.ijpvm_236_20] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Accepted: 05/02/2020] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Almost all religions recommend periods of fasting. Many adult Muslims fast during the holy month of Ramadan each year. Ramadan fasting as a type of intermittent fasting is a non-pharmacological intervention refining the overall health. This year, Ramadan is coincided with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak making it one of the most challenging fasting periods for Muslims in the world. There is no solid direct evidence to suggest any adverse effect of Ramadan fasting during the COVID-19 pandemic in healthy individuals. However, there are exemptions in Ramadan Fasting and those at risk of health issues should not fast. COVID-19 is a new disease and there is limited studies concerning its risk factors. The purpose of this review was shedding more light on the potential mechanisms involved in influence of practice of fasting in all forms, including Ramadan fasting on the vulnerability to infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard
- Applied Physiology Research Center, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Science, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Zahra Otroj
- Vice-Chancellery for Research and Technology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
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4059
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Souissi W, Bouzid MA, Farjallah MA, Ben Mahmoud L, Boudaya M, Engel FA, Sahnoun Z. Effect of Different Running Exercise Modalities on Post-Exercise Oxidative Stress Markers in Trained Athletes. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E3729. [PMID: 32466187 PMCID: PMC7277356 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2020] [Accepted: 05/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to examine the effect of running exercise modality on oxidative stress. Thirteen endurance athletes (age: 21.46 ± 0.66 years) performed three different running exercise modalities (Continuous running exercise (CR): continuous running exercise at 75% of VO2max for 25 min; intermittent running exercise #1 (15/15): intermittent running protocol, 15 s running at 75% of VO2max, 15 s passive recovery, performed for 50 min; intermittent running exercise #2 (30/30): intermittent running protocol, 30 s running at 75% of VO2max, 30 s passive recovery, performed for 50 min) in a randomized order. Blood samples were drawn at rest and immediately after each running exercise and assessed for malondialdehyde (MDA), advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP), superoxide dismutase(SOD), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX) activities. MDA increased by 55% following 30/30 exercise (p < 0.01), while it remained unchanged with CR and15/15 exercise. SOD increased after CR (+13.9%, p < 0.05), and also remained unchanged after 15/15 (p > 0.05) and decreased after 30/30 (-19.7% p < 0.05). GPX and AOPP did not change after exercise in all experimental sessions (p > 0.05). In conclusion, 30/30 intermittent running induced higher lipid damages than the 15/15 and CR exercise. 15/15 intermittent exercise promoted a better balance between free radicals production and antioxidant defense compared to continuous exercise and intermittent 30/30 exercise.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wajdi Souissi
- Research Laboratory: Education, Motricité, Sport et Santé, EM2S, LR19JS01, High Institute of Sport and Physical Education, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (W.S.); (M.A.B.); (M.A.F.)
- Research Center on Sport and Movement (Centre de Recherchessur le Sport et le Mouvement, CeRSM), UPL, Université Paris Nanterre, UFR STAPS, F-92000 Nanterre, France
| | - Mohamed Amine Bouzid
- Research Laboratory: Education, Motricité, Sport et Santé, EM2S, LR19JS01, High Institute of Sport and Physical Education, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (W.S.); (M.A.B.); (M.A.F.)
| | - Mohamed Amine Farjallah
- Research Laboratory: Education, Motricité, Sport et Santé, EM2S, LR19JS01, High Institute of Sport and Physical Education, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (W.S.); (M.A.B.); (M.A.F.)
| | - Lobna Ben Mahmoud
- Pharmacology Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (L.B.M.); (Z.S.)
| | - Mariem Boudaya
- Biochemistry Laboratory, CHU HediChaker, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia;
| | - Florian A. Engel
- Institute of Sport and Sport Science, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Sport Science, Bundeswehr University Munich, 85577 Neubiberg, Germany
| | - Zouheir Sahnoun
- Pharmacology Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sfax, Sfax 3000, Tunisia; (L.B.M.); (Z.S.)
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4060
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Moreno-Guerrero AJ, Aznar-Díaz I, Cáceres-Reche P, Rodríguez-García AM. Do Age, Gender and Poor Diet Influence the Higher Prevalence of Nomophobia among Young People? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E3697. [PMID: 32456304 PMCID: PMC7277929 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2020] [Revised: 05/21/2020] [Accepted: 05/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is generating the emergence of new pathologies such as nomophobia. The aim of this research was to analyze the prevalence of nomophobia among young people, as well as to check whether the level of nomophobia is higher in males or females and in those students who claim to have less healthy nutrition due to the use of their mobile phones. The research method was based on a correlational and predictive design with a quantitative methodology. The measurement tool used is the Nomophobia Questionnaire (NMP-Q). The participating sample was 1743 students between 12 and 20 years old from different educational stages of the Autonomous City of Ceuta (Spain). The results show that highest rates of nomophobia were found in relation to the inability to communicate and contact others immediately. About gender, women have higher rates of nomophobia than men. In relation to age, no significant differences were found; thus, the problem may affect all ages equally. Finally, students who think that their smartphone use is detrimental to their good nutrition show higher levels on the scale provided.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Antonio-Manuel Rodríguez-García
- Department of Didactics and School Organization, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain; (A.-J.M.-G.); (I.A.-D.); (P.C.-R.)
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4061
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Choi YJ. Shedding Light on the Effects of Calorie Restriction and its Mimetics on Skin Biology. Nutrients 2020; 12:nu12051529. [PMID: 32456324 PMCID: PMC7284700 DOI: 10.3390/nu12051529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2020] [Revised: 05/20/2020] [Accepted: 05/22/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
During the aging process of an organism, the skin gradually loses its structural and functional characteristics. The skin becomes more fragile and vulnerable to damage, which may contribute to age-related diseases and even death. Skin aging is aggravated by the fact that the skin is in direct contact with extrinsic factors, such as ultraviolet irradiation. While calorie restriction (CR) is the most effective intervention to extend the lifespan of organisms and prevent age-related disorders, its effects on cutaneous aging and disorders are poorly understood. This review discusses the effects of CR and its alternative dietary intake on skin biology, with a focus on skin aging. CR structurally and functionally affects most of the skin and has been reported to rescue both age-related and photo-induced changes. The anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidative, stem cell maintenance, and metabolic activities of CR contribute to its beneficial effects on the skin. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the effects of fasting or a specific nutrient-restricted diet on skin aging have not been evaluated; these strategies offer benefits in wound healing and inflammatory skin diseases. In addition, well-known CR mimetics, including resveratrol, metformin, rapamycin, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonists, show CR-like prevention against skin aging. An overview of the role of CR in skin biology will provide valuable insights that would eventually lead to improvements in skin health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yeon Ja Choi
- Department of Biopharmaceutical Engineering, Division of Chemistry and Biotechnology, Dongguk University, Gyeongju 38066, Korea
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4062
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Niemelä M, Niemelä O, Bloigu R, Bloigu A, Kangastupa P, Juvonen T. Serum Calprotectin, a Marker of Neutrophil Activation, and Other Mediators of Inflammation in Response to Various Types of Extreme Physical Exertion in Healthy Volunteers. J Inflamm Res 2020; 13:223-231. [PMID: 32547154 PMCID: PMC7250293 DOI: 10.2147/jir.s250675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2020] [Accepted: 05/01/2020] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose While extreme physical exertion is known to induce changes in the status of inflammation comparisons of the responses for various mediators of inflammation after acute bouts of high-intensity exercise have been limited. Subjects and Methods We examined the responses in serum levels of novel inflammatory proteins, calprotectin, suPAR, CD163, and pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines in 12 physically active volunteers (10 men, 2 women, mean age 37±14 years) before and after completing various types of extreme physical exertion (marathon run, half-marathon run or 24-h cross-country skiing). For comparisons, the levels of the biomarkers were also measured at rest in 30 healthy controls (25 men, 5 women, mean age 42 ± 12 years) with low or sedentary activity. Results Extreme physical exertion induced significant increases in serum calprotectin (p < 0.0005), suPAR (p < 0.01), CD163 (p < 0.05), IL-6 (p < 0.0005), IL-8 (p < 0.01) and IL-10 (p < 0.0005) (pre- vs 3h-post-exercise). These responses were found to normalize within 48 hours. While the increases in blood leukocytes were of similar magnitude following the different types of exercise, markedly more pronounced responses occurred in serum TNF-α (p < 0.01), IL-8 (p < 0.01) and CD163 (p < 0.05) in those with more intense activity. In 3-h post-exercise samples significant correlations were observed between serum calprotectin and IL-6 (rs = 0.720, p < 0.01), IL-10 (rs = 0.615, p < 0.05), TNF-α (rs = 0.594, p < 0.05), suPAR (rs = 0.587, p < 0.05) and blood leukocytes (rs = 0.762, p < 0.01). Conclusion The present results suggest distinct exercise-intensity dependent changes in mediators of inflammation (including calprotectin, suPAR and CD163) following extreme physical exertion. Our findings indicate that there is a major reversible impact of high-intensity physical exertion on the status of inflammation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Markus Niemelä
- Department of Surgery, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu 90029, Finland.,Department of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Research Unit, Seinäjoki Central Hospital and Tampere University, Seinäjoki 60220, Finland
| | - Onni Niemelä
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Research Unit, Seinäjoki Central Hospital and Tampere University, Seinäjoki 60220, Finland
| | - Risto Bloigu
- Infrastructure for Population Studies, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oulu, Oulu 90014, Finland
| | - Aini Bloigu
- Center for Life Course Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu 90014, Finland
| | - Päivikki Kangastupa
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Research Unit, Seinäjoki Central Hospital and Tampere University, Seinäjoki 60220, Finland
| | - Tatu Juvonen
- Department of Surgery, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu 90029, Finland.,Department of Cardiac Surgery, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki 00029, Finland
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4063
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Li MT, Sun GQ, Zhang J, Zhao Y, Pei X, Li L, Wang Y, Zhang WY, Zhang ZK, Jin Z. Analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Shanxi Province with discrete time imported cases. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2020; 17:3710-3720. [PMID: 32987551 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Since December 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus pneumonia (WHO named COVID-19) swept across China. In Shanxi Province, the cumulative confirmed cases finally reached 133 since the first confirmed case appeared on January 22, 2020, and most of which were imported cases from Hubei Province. Reasons for this ongoing surge in Shanxi province, both imported and autochthonous infected cases, are currently unclear and demand urgent investigation. In this paper, we developed a SEIQR difference-equation model of COVID-19 that took into account the transmission with discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis. Our findings suggest that if the lock-down date in Wuhan is earlier, the infectious cases are fewer. Moreover, we reveal the effects of city lock-down date on the final scale of cases: if the date is advanced two days, the cases may decrease one half (67, 95% CI: 66-68); if the date is delayed for two days, the cases may reach about 196 (95% CI: 193-199). Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to study the transmission of COVID-19, in other provinces of China except Hubei. Especially, the method may also be used in countries with the first confirmed case is imported.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming-Tao Li
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, 030024, China
| | - Gui-Quan Sun
- Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, 030051, China
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China
| | - Juan Zhang
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China
| | - Yu Zhao
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, 750004, China
| | - Xin Pei
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, 030024, China
| | - Li Li
- School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing 100071, China
| | - Wen-Yi Zhang
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing 100071, China
| | - Zi-Ke Zhang
- College of Media and International Culture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310028, China
- Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 311121, China
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China
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4064
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Cha MH, Regueiro M, Sandhu DS. Gastrointestinal and hepatic manifestations of COVID-19: A comprehensive review. World J Gastroenterol 2020; 26:2323-2332. [PMID: 32476796 PMCID: PMC7243653 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i19.2323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2020] [Revised: 04/25/2020] [Accepted: 05/16/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic, manifested by an infectious pneumonia. Although patients primarily present with fever, cough and dyspnea, some patients also develop gastrointestinal (GI) and hepatic manifestations. The most common GI symptoms reported are diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal discomfort. Liver chemistry abnormalities are common and include elevation of aspartate transferase, alanine transferase, and total bilirubin. Studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 infects the GI tract via its viral receptor angiotensin converting enzyme II, which is expressed on enterocytes of the ileum and colon. Viral RNA has also been isolated from stool specimens of COVID-19 patients, which raised the concern for fecal-oral transmission in addition to droplet transmission. Although indirect evidence has suggested possible fecal-oral transmission of SARS-CoV-2, more effort is needed to establish the role of the fecal-oral transmission route. Further research will help elucidate the association between patients with underlying GI diseases, such as chronic liver disease and inflammatory bowel disease, and severity of COVID-19. In this review, we summarize the data on GI involvement to date, as well as the impact of COVID-19 on underlying GI diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming Han Cha
- Department of Internal Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Akron General, Akron, OH 44307, United States
| | - Miguel Regueiro
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Digestive Disease and Surgery Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44307, United States
| | - Dalbir S Sandhu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Digestive Disease and Surgery Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44307, United States
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4065
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Harb Z, Deckert V, Bressenot AM, Christov C, Guéant-Rodriguez RM, Raso J, Alberto JM, de Barros JPP, Umoret R, Peyrin-Biroulet L, Lagrost L, Bronowicki JP, Guéant JL. The deficit in folate and vitamin B12 triggers liver macrovesicular steatosis and inflammation in rats with dextran sodium sulfate-induced colitis. J Nutr Biochem 2020; 84:108415. [PMID: 32645655 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnutbio.2020.108415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2019] [Revised: 03/21/2020] [Accepted: 05/02/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
The risks of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and deficiency in vitamin B12 and folate (methyl donor deficiency, MDD) are increased in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We investigated the influence of MDD on NASH in rats with DSS-induced colitis. Two-month-old male Wistar rats were subjected to MDD diet and/or ingestion of DSS and compared to control animals. We studied steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, plasma levels of metabolic markers, cytokines and lipopolysaccharide, and inflammatory pathways in liver. MDD triggered a severe macrovesicular steatosis with inflammation in DSS animals that was not observed in animals subjected to DSS or MDD only. The macrovesicular steatosis was closely correlated to folate, vitamin B12, homocysteine plasma level and liver S-adenosyl methionine/S-adenosyl homocysteine (SAM/SAH) ratio. Liver inflammation was evidenced by activation of nuclear factor kappa B (NFκB) pathway and nuclear translocation of NFκB phospho-p65. MDD worsened the increase of interleukin 1-beta (IL-1β) and abolished the increase of IL10 produced by DSS colitis. It increased monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1). MDD triggers liver macrovesicular steatosis and inflammation through imbalanced expression of IL-1β vs. IL10 and increase of MCP-1 in DSS colitis. Our results suggest evaluating whether IBD patients with MDD and increase of MCP-1 are at higher risk of NASH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeinab Harb
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Valérie Deckert
- INSERM UMR1231 Lipides, Nutrition, Cancer, University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté, LipSTIC LabEx, Dijon, France
| | - Aude Marchal Bressenot
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France; Division of Anatomo-Pathology, Robert Debré University Hospital, Reims
| | - Christo Christov
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Rosa-Maria Guéant-Rodriguez
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France; Biochemical and Molecular biology lab, Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Jérémie Raso
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Jean Marc Alberto
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Jean-Paul Pais de Barros
- INSERM UMR1231 Lipides, Nutrition, Cancer, University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté, LipSTIC LabEx, Dijon, France
| | - Remy Umoret
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Laurent Peyrin-Biroulet
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France; Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Laurent Lagrost
- INSERM UMR1231 Lipides, Nutrition, Cancer, University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté, LipSTIC LabEx, Dijon, France
| | - Jean-Pierre Bronowicki
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France; Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France
| | - Jean-Louis Guéant
- INSERM U1256, Nutrition Génétique et Exposition aux Risques Environnementaux, Medical Faculty, University of Lorraine and Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandœuvre les Nancy, France; Biochemical and Molecular biology lab, Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France; Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Regional University Hospital Center of Nancy, Vandoeuvre les Nancy, France.
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4066
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Abstract
Individuals that maintain healthy skeletal tissue tend to live healthier, happier lives as proper muscle function enables maintenance of independence and actuation of autonomy. The onset of skeletal muscle decline begins around the age of 30, and muscle atrophy is associated with a number of serious morbidities and mortalities. Satellite cells are responsible for regeneration of skeletal muscle and enter a reversible non-dividing state of quiescence under homeostatic conditions. In response to injury, satellite cells are able to activate and re-enter the cell cycle, creating new cells to repair and create nascent muscle fibres while preserving a small population that can return to quiescence for future regenerative demands. However, in aged muscle, satellite cells that experience prolonged quiescence will undergo programmed cellular senescence, an irreversible non-dividing state that handicaps the regenerative capabilities of muscle. This review examines how periodic activation and cycling of satellite cells through exercise can mitigate senescence acquisition and myogenic decline.
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Affiliation(s)
- William Chen
- Sprott Centre for Stem Cell Research, Regenerative Medicine Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8L6.,Department of Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8M5
| | - David Datzkiw
- Sprott Centre for Stem Cell Research, Regenerative Medicine Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8L6.,Department of Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8M5
| | - Michael A Rudnicki
- Sprott Centre for Stem Cell Research, Regenerative Medicine Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8L6.,Department of Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1H 8M5
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4067
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Marine Predators Algorithm for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Italy, USA, Iran and Korea. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17103520. [PMID: 32443476 PMCID: PMC7277148 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
The current pandemic of the new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, has received wide attention by scholars and researchers. The vast increase in infected people is a significant challenge for each country and the international community in general. The prediction and forecasting of the number of infected people (so-called confirmed cases) is a critical issue that helps in understanding the fast spread of COVID-19. Therefore, in this article, we present an improved version of the ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) model to forecast the number of infected people in four countries, Italy, Iran, Korea, and the USA. The improved version of ANFIS is based on a new nature-inspired optimizer, called the marine predators algorithm (MPA). The MPA is utilized to optimize the ANFIS parameters, enhancing its forecasting performance. Official datasets of the four countries are used to evaluate the proposed MPA-ANFIS. Moreover, we compare MPA-ANFIS to several previous methods to evaluate its forecasting performance. Overall, the outcomes show that MPA-ANFIS outperforms all compared methods in almost all performance measures, such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), and Coefficient of Determination(R2). For instance, according to the results of the testing set, the R2 of the proposed model is 96.48%, 98.59%, 98.74%, and 95.95% for Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA, respectively. More so, the MAE is 60.31, 3951.94, 217.27, and 12,979, for Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA, respectively.
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4068
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Feng XM, Chen J, Wang K, Wang L, Zhang FQ, Jin Z, Zou L, Wang X. Phase-adjusted estimation of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea under multi-source data and adjustment measures: a modelling study. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2020; 17:3637-3648. [PMID: 32987548 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Mei Feng
- School of Mathematics and Informational Technology, Yuncheng University, Yuncheng 044000, China
- Shanxi Applied Mathematics Center, Taiyuan 030006, China
| | - Jing Chen
- Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography, Nova Southeastern University, FL 33314, USA
| | - Kai Wang
- Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
| | - Lei Wang
- Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
| | - Feng Qin Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Informational Technology, Yuncheng University, Yuncheng 044000, China
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
- Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan 030006, China
| | - Lan Zou
- School of Mathematics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China
| | - Xia Wang
- School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China
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4069
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Zhao Y, Wang R, Li J, Zhang Y, Yang H, Zhao Y. Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 2020:3842470. [PMID: 32461981 PMCID: PMC7235687 DOI: 10.1155/2020/3842470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China. As of Feb. 9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge for public health and clinical treatment in China. Until now, we are in the high-incidence season of NCP. Thus, the analysis of the transmissibility change of NCP and its potential factors may provide a reliable reference for establishing effective prevention and control strategies. METHOD By means of the method of calculating the instantaneous basic reproduction number R 0t proposed by Cori et al. (2013), we use R 0t to describe the transmissibility change of COVID-19 in China, 2019-2020. In addition, the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS) were selected to measure the public awareness and the effect of Wuhan lockdown (restricted persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area) strategy, respectively. The Granger causality test (GCT) was carried out to explore the association between public awareness, the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy, and the transmissibility of COVID-19. RESULTS The estimated averaged basic reproduction number of NCP in China was 3.44 with 95% CI (2.87, 4.0) during Dec. 8, 2019, to Feb. 9, 2020. The instantaneous basic reproduction numbers (R 0t ) have two waves and reaching peaks on Jan. 8 and Jan. 27, respectively. After reaching a peak on Jan. 27, R 0t showed a continuous decline trend. On Feb. 9, R 0t has fallen to 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66, 1.7), but it is still larger than 1. We find a significantly negative association between public awareness and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, with one unit increase in cumulative BDI leading to a decrease of 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) R 0t . We also find a significantly negative association between the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, and a one unit decrease in BMS may lead to a drop of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.97) R 0t . CONCLUSION The current prevention and control measures have effectively reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19; however, R 0t is still larger than the threshold 1. The results show that the government adopting the Wuhan lockdown strategy plays an important role in restricting the potential infected persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area and avoiding a nationwide spread by quickly controlling the potential infection in Wuhan. Meanwhile, since Jan. 18, 2020, the people successively accessed COVID-19-related information via the Internet, which may help to effectively implement the government's prevention and control strategy and contribute to reducing the transmissibility of NCP. Therefore, ongoing travel restriction and public health awareness remain essential to provide a foundation for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Zhao
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan Ningxia, China 750004
| | - Ruonan Wang
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan Ningxia, China 750004
| | - Jiangping Li
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan Ningxia, China 750004
| | - Yuhong Zhang
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan Ningxia, China 750004
| | - Huifang Yang
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan Ningxia, China 750004
| | - Yi Zhao
- School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan Ningxia, China 750004
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4070
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Riccò M, Ferraro P, Gualerzi G, Ranzieri S, Henry BM, Said YB, Pyatigorskaya NV, Nevolina E, Wu J, Bragazzi NL, Signorelli C. Point-of-Care Diagnostic Tests for Detecting SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Real-World Data. J Clin Med 2020; 9:E1515. [PMID: 32443459 PMCID: PMC7290955 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9051515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for a highly contagious infection, known as COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 was discovered in late December 2019 and, since then, has become a global pandemic. Timely and accurate COVID-19 laboratory testing is an essential step in the management of the COVID-19 outbreak. To date, assays based on the reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in respiratory samples are the gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis. Unfortunately, RT-PCR has several practical limitations. Consequently, alternative diagnostic methods are urgently required, both for alleviating the pressure on laboratories and healthcare facilities and for expanding testing capacity to enable large-scale screening and ensure a timely therapeutic intervention. To date, few studies have been conducted concerning the potential utilization of rapid testing for COVID-19, with some conflicting results. Therefore, the present systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to explore the feasibility of rapid diagnostic tests in the management of the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on ten studies, we computed a pooled sensitivity of 64.8% (95%CI 54.5-74.0), and specificity of 98.0% (95%CI 95.8-99.0), with high heterogeneity and risk of reporting bias. We can conclude that: (1) rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19 are necessary, but should be adequately sensitive and specific; (2) few studies have been carried out to date; (3) the studies included are characterized by low numbers and low sample power, and (4) in light of these results, the use of available tests is currently questionable for clinical purposes and cannot substitute other more reliable molecular tests, such as assays based on RT-PCR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Riccò
- AUSL–IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Servizio di Prevenzione e Sicurezza negli ambienti di Lavoro (SPSAL), I-42122 Reggio Emilia (RE), Italy
| | - Pietro Ferraro
- ASL Foggia, Dipartimento di Prevenzione, Servizio Prevenzione e Sicurezza Ambienti Lavoro, Piazza Pavoncelli 11, I-41121 Foggia (FG), Italy;
| | - Giovanni Gualerzi
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine, University of Parma, 43123 Parma (PR), Italy;
| | - Silvia Ranzieri
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, School of Occupational Medicine, University of Parma, I-43123 Parma (PR), Italy;
| | - Brandon Michael Henry
- Cardiac Intensive Care Unit, The Heart Institute, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, 3333 Burnet Avenue, Cincinnati, OH 45229-3026, USA;
| | - Younes Ben Said
- Department of Industrial Pharmacy, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119991 Moscow, Russia; (Y.B.S.); (N.V.P.)
| | - Natalia Valeryevna Pyatigorskaya
- Department of Industrial Pharmacy, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), 119991 Moscow, Russia; (Y.B.S.); (N.V.P.)
| | - Elena Nevolina
- Executive Director of the Union “National Pharmaceutical Chamber”, 125009 Moscow, Russia;
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada;
| | - Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada;
| | - Carlo Signorelli
- School of Medicine, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, 20132 Milan (MI), Italy;
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4071
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Rafiq D, Batool A, Bazaz MA. Three months of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Rev Med Virol 2020; 30:e2113. [PMID: 32420674 PMCID: PMC7267122 DOI: 10.1002/rmv.2113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2020] [Revised: 04/17/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
The pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2019), reminiscent of the 2002‐SARS‐CoV outbreak, has completely isolated countries, disrupted health systems and partially paralyzed international trade and travel. In order to be better equipped to anticipate transmission of this virus to new regions, it is imperative to track the progress of the virus over time. This review analyses information on progression of the pandemic in the past 3 months and systematically discusses the characteristics of SARS‐CoV‐2019 virus including its epidemiologic, pathophysiologic, and clinical manifestations. Furthermore, the review also encompasses some recently proposed conceptual models that estimate the spread of this disease based on the basic reproductive number for better prevention and control procedures. Finally, we shed light on how the virus has endangered the global economy, impacting it both from the supply and demand side.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danish Rafiq
- Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, India
| | - Asiya Batool
- CSIR-Indian Institute of Integrative Medicine (IIIM), Srinagar, India
| | - M A Bazaz
- Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, India
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4072
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Kannampallil T, Ma J. Digital Translucence: Adapting Telemedicine Delivery Post-COVID-19. Telemed J E Health 2020; 26:1120-1122. [PMID: 32427529 DOI: 10.1089/tmj.2020.0158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
In nearly 1 month, with a rapidly expanding corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), telemedicine has been transformed into an essential service for delivering routine clinical care. This transformation occurred as a crisis management response-driven by the need to provide care for patients with physical distancing measures in place. However, the current rapid adoption of telemedicine presents a transitional state between one that existed before the pandemic and one that could potentially be better aligned with the delivery of a personalized model of care. Using the conceptual framework of digital translucence-situating virtual encounters with more nuanced information regarding patients-we describe the role of integrated remote monitoring and virtual care tools aligned with the patient's electronic health record for adapting telemedicine delivery post-COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Kannampallil
- Institute for Informatics, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.,Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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4073
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Tang B, Scarabel F, Bragazzi NL, McCarthy Z, Glazer M, Xiao Y, Heffernan JM, Asgary A, Ogden NH, Wu J. De-Escalation by Reversing the Escalation with a Stronger Synergistic Package of Contact Tracing, Quarantine, Isolation and Personal Protection: Feasibility of Preventing a COVID-19 Rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study. BIOLOGY 2020; 9:E100. [PMID: 32429450 PMCID: PMC7284446 DOI: 10.3390/biology9050100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Revised: 05/14/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which gradually decreased to less than one). From this, we derive the necessary conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. From this, we quantify the conditions needed to prevent epidemic rebound during de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process.
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Affiliation(s)
- Biao Tang
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
- The Interdisciplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
| | - Francesca Scarabel
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
- CDLab—Computational Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, 33100 Udine, Italy
| | - Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
| | - Zachary McCarthy
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
| | - Michael Glazer
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
| | - Yanyu Xiao
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0025, USA;
| | - Jane M. Heffernan
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
- Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Centre for Disease Modelling, Department of Mathematics & Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Ali Asgary
- Disaster & Emergency Management, School of Administrative Studies & Advanced Disaster & Emergency Rapid-response Simulation (ADERSIM), York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada;
| | - Nicholas Hume Ogden
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St. Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada;
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; (B.T.); (F.S.); (N.L.B.); (Z.M.); (M.G.); (J.M.H.)
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4074
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Reno C, Lenzi J, Navarra A, Barelli E, Gori D, Lanza A, Valentini R, Tang B, Fantini MP. Forecasting COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations under Different Levels of Social Distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy: Results from an Extended SEIR Compartmental Model. J Clin Med 2020; 9:jcm9051492. [PMID: 32429121 PMCID: PMC7290384 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9051492] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2020] [Revised: 05/07/2020] [Accepted: 05/13/2020] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of 17 April 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chiara Reno
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy; (C.R.); (D.G.); (M.P.F.)
| | - Jacopo Lenzi
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy; (C.R.); (D.G.); (M.P.F.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +39-051-209-4835
| | - Antonio Navarra
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, 40127 Bologna, Italy; (A.N.); (A.L.); (R.V.)
| | - Eleonora Barelli
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy;
| | - Davide Gori
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy; (C.R.); (D.G.); (M.P.F.)
| | - Alessandro Lanza
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, 40127 Bologna, Italy; (A.N.); (A.L.); (R.V.)
- Department of Political Science, LUISS—Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli, 00197 Rome, Italy
| | - Riccardo Valentini
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, 40127 Bologna, Italy; (A.N.); (A.L.); (R.V.)
- Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, Tuscia University, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Biao Tang
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada;
- The Interdisciplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
| | - Maria Pia Fantini
- Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum—University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy; (C.R.); (D.G.); (M.P.F.)
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4075
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Yu Y, Chen P. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Neonates and Children From China: A Review. Front Pediatr 2020; 8:287. [PMID: 32574286 PMCID: PMC7243210 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2020.00287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus began to spread in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The confirmed cases increased nationwide rapidly, in part due to the increased population mobility during the Chinese Lunar New Year festival. The World Health Organization (WHO) subsequently named the novel coronavirus pneumonia Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and named the virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Soon, transmission from person to person was confirmed and the virus spread to many other countries. To date, many cases have been reported in the pediatric age group, most of which were from China. The management and treatment strategies have also been improved, which we believe would be helpful to pediatric series in other countries as well. However, the characteristics of neonatal and childhood infection still have not been evaluated in detail. This review summarizes the current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection in neonates and children from January 24 to May 1, as an experience from China.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Pingyang Chen
- Department of Pediatrics, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
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4076
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Belvis R. Headaches During COVID-19: My Clinical Case and Review of the Literature. Headache 2020; 60:1422-1426. [PMID: 32413158 PMCID: PMC7273035 DOI: 10.1111/head.13841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2020] [Revised: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Objective To analyze headaches related to COVID‐19 based on personal case experience. Background COVID‐19 is an infection caused by the new coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2. The first reported case happened in Wuhan on December 1, 2019. At present, at least 1.8 million people are infected around the world and almost 110,000 people have died. Many studies have analyzed the clinical picture of COVID‐19, but they are focused on respiratory symptoms and headache is generically treated. Methods I describe and discuss my headaches during my COVID‐19 and I review the MEDLINE literature about headaches and COVID‐19. Results More than 41,000 COVID‐19 patients have been included in clinical studies and headache was present in 8%‐12% of them. However, no headache characterization was made in these studies. As a headache expert and based on my own personal clinical case, headaches related to COVID‐19 can be classified in the 2 phases of the disease. Acute headache attributed to systemic viral infection, primary cough headache, tension‐type headache and headache attributed to heterophoria can appear in the first phase (the influenza‐like phase); and headache attributed to hypoxia and a new headache, difficult to fit into the ICHD3, can appear if the second phase (the cytokine storm phase) occurs. Conclusions Several headaches can appear during COVID‐19 infection. All of them are headaches specified in the ICHD3, except 1 that occurs from the 7th day after the clinical onset. This headache is probably related to the cytokine storm that some patients suffer and it could be framed under the ICHD3 headache of Headache attributed to other non‐infectious inflammatory intracranial disease. Although the reported prevalence of headaches as a symptom of COVID‐19 infection is low, this experience shows that, very probably, it is underestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Belvis
- Headache and Neuralgias Unit, Department of Neurology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain
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4077
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Xin FZ, Zhao ZH, Zhang RN, Pan Q, Gong ZZ, Sun C, Fan JG. Folic acid attenuates high-fat diet-induced steatohepatitis via deacetylase SIRT1-dependent restoration of PPARα. World J Gastroenterol 2020; 26:2203-2220. [PMID: 32476787 PMCID: PMC7235203 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i18.2203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2019] [Revised: 03/27/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Folic acid has been shown to improve non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), but its roles in hepatic lipid metabolism, hepatic one-carbon metabolism, and gut microbiota are still unknown.
AIM To demonstrate the role of folic acid in lipid metabolism and gut microbiota in NASH.
METHODS Twenty-four Sprague-Dawley rats were assigned into three groups: Chow diet, high-fat diet (HFD), and HFD with folic acid administration. At the end of 16 wk, the liver histology, the expression of hepatic genes related to lipid metabolism, one-carbon metabolism, and gut microbiota structure analysis of fecal samples based on 16S rRNA sequencing were measured to evaluate the effect of folic acid. Palmitic acid-exposed Huh7 cell line was used to evaluate the role of folic acid in hepatic lipid metabolism.
RESULTS Folic acid treatment attenuated steatosis, lobular inflammation, and hepatocellular ballooning in rats with HFD-induced steatohepatitis. Genes related to lipid de novo lipogenesis, β-oxidation, and lipid uptake were improved in HFD-fed folic acid-treated rats. Furthermore, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARα) and silence information regulation factor 1 (SIRT1) were restored by folic acid in HFD-fed rats and palmitic acid-exposed Huh7 cell line. The restoration of PPARα by folic acid was blocked after transfection with SIRT1 siRNA in the Huh7 cell line. Additionally, folic acid administration ameliorated depleted hepatic one-carbon metabolism and restored the diversity of the gut microbiota in rats with HFD-induced steatohepatitis.
CONCLUSION Folic acid improves hepatic lipid metabolism by upregulating PPARα levels via a SIRT1-dependent mechanism and restores hepatic one-carbon metabolism and diversity of gut microbiota, thereby attenuating HFD-induced NASH in rats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feng-Zhi Xin
- Center for Fatty Liver, Department of Gastroenterology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Ze-Hua Zhao
- Center for Fatty Liver, Department of Gastroenterology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Rui-Nan Zhang
- Center for Fatty Liver, Department of Gastroenterology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Qin Pan
- Center for Fatty Liver, Department of Gastroenterology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Zi-Zhen Gong
- Shanghai Key Lab of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Shanghai 200092, China
- Shanghai Institute for Pediatric Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Chao Sun
- Center for Fatty Liver, Department of Gastroenterology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Jian-Gao Fan
- Center for Fatty Liver, Department of Gastroenterology, Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
- Shanghai Key Lab of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Shanghai 200092, China
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4078
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Riccò M, Vezzosi L, Balzarini F, Bragazzi NL. Inappropriate risk perception for SARS-CoV-2 infection among Italian HCWs in the eve of COVID-19 pandemic. ACTA BIO-MEDICA : ATENEI PARMENSIS 2020; 91. [PMID: 32921735 PMCID: PMC7717016 DOI: 10.23750/abm.v91i3.9727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/13/2020] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Riccò
- Azienda USL di Reggio EmiliaV.le Amendola n.2 - 42122 REServizio di Prevenzione e Sicurezza negli Ambienti di Lavoro (SPSAL)Dip. di Prevenzione.
| | - Luigi Vezzosi
- Agenzia di Tutela della Salute (ATS) della Val Padana; Via Toscani n.1; Mantova (MN), Italy.
| | - Federica Balzarini
- University "Vita e Salute", San Raffaele Hospital; Via Olgettina n. 58, 20132; Milan (MI), Italy.
| | - Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada.
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4079
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Feng LX, Jing SL, Hu SK, Wang DF, Huo HF. Modelling the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the COVID-19 infections in the UK. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2020; 17:3618-3636. [PMID: 32987547 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
A new COVID-19 epidemic model with media coverage and quarantine is constructed. The model allows for the susceptibles to the unconscious and conscious susceptible compartment. First, mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R0. If R0 ≤ 1, then the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Second, the unknown parameters of model are estimated by the MCMC algorithm on the basis of the total confirmed new cases from February 1, 2020 to March 23, 2020 in the UK. We also estimate that the basic reproduction number is R0 = 4.2816(95%CI: (3.8882, 4.6750)). Without the most restrictive measures, we forecast that the COVID-19 epidemic will peak on June 2 (95%CI: (May 23, June 13)) (Figure 3a) and the number of infected individuals is more than 70% of UK population. In order to determine the key parameters of the model, sensitivity analysis are also explored. Finally, our results show reducing contact is effective against the spread of the disease. We suggest that the stringent containment strategies should be adopted in the UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li-Xiang Feng
- Ningxia Institute of Science and Technology, Shizuishan, Ningxia, 753000, China
| | - Shuang-Lin Jing
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730050, China
| | - Shi-Ke Hu
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730050, China
| | - De-Fen Wang
- Ningxia Institute of Science and Technology, Shizuishan, Ningxia, 753000, China
| | - Hai-Feng Huo
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730050, China
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4080
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Government Intervention, Risk Perception, and the Adoption of Protective Action Recommendations: Evidence from the COVID-19 Prevention and Control Experience of China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17103387. [PMID: 32414013 PMCID: PMC7277925 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/08/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
This study examines the relationships between government interventions, risk perception, and the public’s adoption of protective action recommendations (PARs) during the COVID-19 coronavirus disease emergency in mainland China. We conducted quota sampling based on the proportion of the population in each province and gender ratios in the Sixth Census and obtained a sample size of 3837. Government intervention was divided into government communication, government prevention and control, and government rescue. We used multiple regression and a bootstrap mediation effect test to study the mechanism of these three forms of government intervention on the public’s adoption of PARs. The results show that government prevention and control and government rescue significantly increased the likelihood of the public adopting PARs. Risk perception was significantly associated with the public’s adoption of PARs. The effects of government interventions and risk perception on the public’s adoption of PARs was not found to vary by region. Risk perception is identified as an important mediating factor between government intervention and the public’s adoption of PARs. These results indicate that increasing the public’s risk perception is an effective strategy for governments seeking to encourage the public to adopt PARs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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4081
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Gatto M, Bertuzzo E, Mari L, Miccoli S, Carraro L, Casagrandi R, Rinaldo A. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:10484-10491. [PMID: 32327608 PMCID: PMC7229754 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004978117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 580] [Impact Index Per Article: 145.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marino Gatto
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy;
| | - Enrico Bertuzzo
- Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 30172 Venezia-Mestre, Italy
- Science of Complexity Research Unit, European Centre for Living Technology, 30123 Venice, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Mari
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Stefano Miccoli
- Dipartimento di Meccanica, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Luca Carraro
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Renato Casagrandi
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Andrea Rinaldo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;
- Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Università di Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy
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4082
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Riccò M, Gualerzi G, Ranzieri S, Bragazzi NL. Stop playing with data: there is no sound evidence that Bacille Calmette-Guérin may avoid SARS-CoV-2 infection (for now). ACTA BIO-MEDICA : ATENEI PARMENSIS 2020; 91:207-213. [PMID: 32420947 PMCID: PMC7569626 DOI: 10.23750/abm.v91i2.9700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, a possible explanation for the high heterogeneity of infection/mortality rates across involved countries was hinted in the prevalence of tuberculosis vaccination with Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG). A systematic review was therefore performed on May 2, 2020. A total of 13 articles were ultimately retrieved, 12 of them as preprint papers. All articles were ecological studies of low quality. Most of them did not include main confounding factors (i.e. demographic of the assessed countries, share of people residing in urban settings, etc.), and simply assessed the differences among incidence/mortality of COVID-19 with vaccination rates or by having vs. having not any vaccination policy for BCG. Even though all studies shared the very same information sources (i.e. international registries for BCG vaccination rates and open source data for COVID-19 epidemics), results were conflicting, with later studies apparently denying any true correlation between COVID-19 occurrence and BCG vaccination rates and/or policies. As a consequence, there is no sound evidence to recommend BCG vaccination for the prevention of COVID-19. (www.actabiomedica.it)
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Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Riccò
- AUSL-IRCCS di Reggio Emilia V.le Amendola n.2 - 42122 RE Servizio di Prevenzione e Sicurezza negli Ambienti di Lavoro (SPSAL)Dip. di Prevenzione.
| | - Giovanni Gualerzi
- University of Parma, Department of Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine; Via Gramsci n.14, 43123; Parma (PR), Italy.
| | - Silvia Ranzieri
- University of Parma, Department of Medicine and Surgery, School of Occupational Medicine; Via Gramsci n.14, 43123; Parma (PR), Italy.
| | - Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada.
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4083
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Signorelli C, Odone A, Gianfredi V, Bossi E, Bucci D, Oradini-Alacreu A, Frascella B, Capraro M, Chiappa F, Blandi L, Ciceri F. The spread of COVID-19 in six western metropolitan regions: a false myth on the excess of mortality in Lombardy and the defense of the city of Milan. ACTA BIO-MEDICA : ATENEI PARMENSIS 2020; 91:23-30. [PMID: 32420920 PMCID: PMC7569623 DOI: 10.23750/abm.v91i2.9600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
We analyzed the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in 6 metropolitan regions with similar demographic characteristics, daytime commuting population and business activities: the New York metropolitan area, the Île-de-France region, the Greater London county, Bruxelles-Capital, the Community of Madrid and the Lombardy region. The highest mortality rates 30-days after the onset of the epidemic were recorded in New York (81.2 x 100,000) and Madrid (77.1 x 100,000). Lombardy mortality rate is below average (41.4 per 100,000), and it is the only situation in which the capital of the region (Milan) has not been heavily impacted by the epidemic wave. Our study analyzed the role played by containment measures and the positive contribution offered by the hospital care system. (www.actabiomedica.it).
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlo Signorelli
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | - Anna Odone
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | - Vincenza Gianfredi
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy; CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
| | - Eleonora Bossi
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | - Daria Bucci
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | | | - Beatrice Frascella
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | - Michele Capraro
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | - Federica Chiappa
- School of Public Health, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
| | - Lorenzo Blandi
- IRCCS Policlinico San Donato, School of Public Health, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
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4084
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Sardu C, Gambardella J, Morelli MB, Wang X, Marfella R, Santulli G. Hypertension, Thrombosis, Kidney Failure, and Diabetes: Is COVID-19 an Endothelial Disease? A Comprehensive Evaluation of Clinical and Basic Evidence. J Clin Med 2020; 9:E1417. [PMID: 32403217 PMCID: PMC7290769 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9051417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 342] [Impact Index Per Article: 85.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2020] [Revised: 05/02/2020] [Accepted: 05/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The symptoms most commonly reported by patients affected by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) include cough, fever, and shortness of breath. However, other major events usually observed in COVID-19 patients (e.g., high blood pressure, arterial and venous thromboembolism, kidney disease, neurologic disorders, and diabetes mellitus) indicate that the virus is targeting the endothelium, one of the largest organs in the human body. Herein, we report a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of both clinical and preclinical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the endothelium is a key target organ in COVID-19, providing a mechanistic rationale behind its systemic manifestations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Celestino Sardu
- Department of Advanced Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, 80100 Naples, Italy; (C.S.); (R.M.)
- Department of Medical Sciences, International University of Health and Medical Sciences “Saint Camillus”, 00131 Rome, Italy
| | - Jessica Gambardella
- Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, International Translational Research and Medical Education Academic Research Unit (ITME), “Federico II” University, 80131 Naples, Italy;
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Wilf Family Cardiovascular Research Institute, New York, NY 10461, USA; (M.B.M.); (X.W.)
| | - Marco Bruno Morelli
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Wilf Family Cardiovascular Research Institute, New York, NY 10461, USA; (M.B.M.); (X.W.)
- Department of Molecular Pharmacology, Fleischer Institute for Diabetes and Metabolism (FIDAM), Montefiore University Hospital, New York, NY 10461, USA
| | - Xujun Wang
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Wilf Family Cardiovascular Research Institute, New York, NY 10461, USA; (M.B.M.); (X.W.)
| | - Raffaele Marfella
- Department of Advanced Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, 80100 Naples, Italy; (C.S.); (R.M.)
| | - Gaetano Santulli
- Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, International Translational Research and Medical Education Academic Research Unit (ITME), “Federico II” University, 80131 Naples, Italy;
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Wilf Family Cardiovascular Research Institute, New York, NY 10461, USA; (M.B.M.); (X.W.)
- Department of Molecular Pharmacology, Fleischer Institute for Diabetes and Metabolism (FIDAM), Montefiore University Hospital, New York, NY 10461, USA
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4085
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SARS-CoV-2 Inflammatory Syndrome. Clinical Features and Rationale for Immunological Treatment. Int J Mol Sci 2020. [PMID: 32397684 DOI: 10.3390/ijms21093377.] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The current pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is a global health emergency because of its highly contagious nature, the great number of patients requiring intensive care therapy, and the high fatality rate. In the absence of specific antiviral drugs, passive prophylaxis, or a vaccine, the treatment aim in these patients is to prevent the potent virus-induced inflammatory stimuli from leading to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which has a severe prognosis. Here, the mechanism of action and the rationale for employing immunological strategies, which range from traditional chemically synthesized drugs, anti-cytokine antibodies, human immunoglobulin for intravenous use, to vaccines, are reviewed.
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4086
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Prete M, Favoino E, Catacchio G, Racanelli V, Perosa F. SARS-CoV-2 Inflammatory Syndrome. Clinical Features and Rationale for Immunological Treatment. Int J Mol Sci 2020; 21:ijms21093377. [PMID: 32397684 PMCID: PMC7247005 DOI: 10.3390/ijms21093377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
The current pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is a global health emergency because of its highly contagious nature, the great number of patients requiring intensive care therapy, and the high fatality rate. In the absence of specific antiviral drugs, passive prophylaxis, or a vaccine, the treatment aim in these patients is to prevent the potent virus-induced inflammatory stimuli from leading to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which has a severe prognosis. Here, the mechanism of action and the rationale for employing immunological strategies, which range from traditional chemically synthesized drugs, anti-cytokine antibodies, human immunoglobulin for intravenous use, to vaccines, are reviewed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcella Prete
- Systemic Rheumatic and Autoimmune Diseases Unit, Department of Biomedical Science and Human Oncology (DIMO), University of Bari Medical School, Piazza G. Cesare 11, I-70124 Bari, Italy; (M.P.); (E.F.); (G.C.)
| | - Elvira Favoino
- Systemic Rheumatic and Autoimmune Diseases Unit, Department of Biomedical Science and Human Oncology (DIMO), University of Bari Medical School, Piazza G. Cesare 11, I-70124 Bari, Italy; (M.P.); (E.F.); (G.C.)
| | - Giacomo Catacchio
- Systemic Rheumatic and Autoimmune Diseases Unit, Department of Biomedical Science and Human Oncology (DIMO), University of Bari Medical School, Piazza G. Cesare 11, I-70124 Bari, Italy; (M.P.); (E.F.); (G.C.)
| | - Vito Racanelli
- Unit of Internal Medicine, Department of Biomedical Sciences and Human Oncology (DIMO), University of Bari Medical School, Piazza G. Cesare 11, I-70124 Bari, Italy;
| | - Federico Perosa
- Systemic Rheumatic and Autoimmune Diseases Unit, Department of Biomedical Science and Human Oncology (DIMO), University of Bari Medical School, Piazza G. Cesare 11, I-70124 Bari, Italy; (M.P.); (E.F.); (G.C.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +39-80-547-88-91; Fax: +39-80-547-88-20
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4087
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Lippi G, Mattiuzzi C, Cervellin G. Is Digital Epidemiology the Future of Clinical Epidemiology? J Epidemiol Glob Health 2020; 9:146. [PMID: 31241874 PMCID: PMC7310749 DOI: 10.2991/jegh.k.190314.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Giuseppe Lippi
- Section of Clinical Biochemistry, University of Verona, Verona, Italy
| | - Camilla Mattiuzzi
- Service of Clinical Governance, Provincial Agency for Social and Sanitary Services, Trento, Italy
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4088
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Cash RE, Anderson SE, Lancaster KE, Lu B, Rivard MK, Camargo CA, Panchal AR. Comparing the Prevalence of Poor Sleep and Stress Metrics in Basic versus Advanced Life Support Emergency Medical Services Personnel. PREHOSP EMERG CARE 2020; 24:644-656. [DOI: 10.1080/10903127.2020.1758259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca E. Cash
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (REC, CAC)
| | - Sarah E. Anderson
- National Registry of Emergency Medical Technicians, Columbus, OH (REC, MKR, ARP)
| | - Kathryn E. Lancaster
- Division of Epidemiology, The Ohio State University College of Public Health, Columbus, OH (REC, SEA, KEL, ARP)
| | - Bo Lu
- Division of Biostatistics, The Ohio State University College of Public Health, Columbus, OH (BL)
| | - Madison K. Rivard
- Division of Health Behavior and Health Promotion, The Ohio State University College of Public Health, Columbus, OH (MKR)
| | - Carlos A. Camargo
- Department of Emergency Medicine, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH (ARP)
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4089
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Su L, Hong N, Zhou X, He J, Ma Y, Jiang H, Han L, Chang F, Shan G, Zhu W, Long Y. Evaluation of the Secondary Transmission Pattern and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19 in the Four Metropolitan Areas of China. Front Med (Lausanne) 2020; 7:171. [PMID: 32574319 PMCID: PMC7221060 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Accepted: 04/15/2020] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is crucial for evaluating its spread pattern, especially in metropolitan areas of China, as its spread could lead to secondary outbreaks. In addition, the experiences gained and lessons learned from China have the potential to provide evidence to support other metropolitan areas and large cities outside China with their emerging cases. We used data reported from January 24, 2020, to February 23, 2020, to fit a model of infection, estimate the likely number of infections in four high-risk metropolitan areas based on the number of cases reported, and increase the understanding of the COVID-19 spread pattern. Considering the effect of the official quarantine regulations and travel restrictions for China, which began January 23~24, 2020, we used the daily travel intensity index from the Baidu Maps app to roughly simulate the level of restrictions and estimate the proportion of the quarantined population. A group of SEIR model statistical parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and fitting on the basis of reported data. As a result, we estimated that the basic reproductive number, R0, was 2.91 in Beijing, 2.78 in Shanghai, 2.02 in Guangzhou, and 1.75 in Shenzhen based on the data from January 24, 2020, to February 23, 2020. In addition, we inferred the prediction results and compared the results of different levels of parameters. For example, in Beijing, the predicted peak number of cases was 467 with a peak time of March 01, 2020; however, if the city were to implement different levels (strict, moderate, or weak) of travel restrictions or regulation measures, the estimation results showed that the transmission dynamics would change and that the peak number of cases would differ by between 54% and 209%. We concluded that public health interventions would reduce the risk of the spread of COVID-19 and that more rigorous control and prevention measures would effectively contain its further spread, and awareness of prevention should be enhanced when businesses and social activities return to normal before the end of the epidemic. Further, the experiences gained and lessons learned from China offer the potential to provide evidence supporting other metropolitan areas and big cities with their emerging cases outside China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Longxiang Su
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Na Hong
- Digital China Health Technologies Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
| | - Xiang Zhou
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jie He
- Digital China Health Technologies Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
| | - Yingying Ma
- Digital China Health Technologies Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
| | - Huizhen Jiang
- Department of Information Management, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Lin Han
- Digital China Health Technologies Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
| | | | - Guangliang Shan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medicine Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Weiguo Zhu
- Department of Information Management, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.,Department of General Internal Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yun Long
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
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4090
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Wang H, Zhang Y, Lu S, Wang S. Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19. F1000Res 2020; 9:333. [PMID: 33363716 PMCID: PMC7737706 DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.23107.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has attracted global attention. In the early stage of the outbreak, the most important question concerns some meaningful milepost moments, including the time when the number of daily confirmed cases decreases, the time when the number of daily confirmed cases becomes smaller than that of the daily removed (recovered and death), and the time when the number of daily confirmed cases and patients treated in hospital, which can be called "active cases", becomes zero. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to make right and precise prediction due to the limited amount of available data at the early stage of the outbreak. To address it, in this paper, we propose a flexible framework incorporating the effectiveness of the government control to forecast the whole process of a new unknown infectious disease in its early-outbreak. Methods: We first establish the iconic indicators to characterize the extent of epidemic spread. Then we develop the tracking and forecasting procedure with mild and reasonable assumptions. Finally we apply it to analyze and evaluate the COVID-19 outbreak using the public available data for mainland China beyond Hubei Province from the China Centers for Disease Control (CDC) during the period of Jan 29th, 2020, to Feb 29th, 2020, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. Results: Forecasting results indicate that the number of newly confirmed cases will become zero in the mid-early March, and the number of patients treated in the hospital will become zero between mid-March and mid-April in mainland China beyond Hubei Province. Conclusions: The framework proposed in this paper can help people get a general understanding of the epidemic trends in countries where COVID-19 are raging as well as any other outbreaks of new and unknown infectious diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiwen Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data and Brain Computing,, Beijing, China
| | - Yanwen Zhang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Shan Lu
- School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China
| | - Shanshan Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Emergence Support Simulation Technologies for City Operations, Beijing, China
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4091
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Wang H, Zhang Y, Lu S, Wang S. Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19. F1000Res 2020; 9:333. [PMID: 33363716 PMCID: PMC7737706 DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.23107.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has attracted global attention. In the early stage of the outbreak, the most important question concerns some meaningful milepost moments, including the time when the number of daily confirmed cases decreases, the time when the number of daily confirmed cases becomes smaller than that of the daily removed (recovered and death), and the time when the number of daily confirmed cases and patients treated in hospital becomes zero. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to make right and precise prediction due to the limited amount of available data at the early stage of the outbreak. To address it, in this paper, we propose a flexible framework incorporating the effectiveness of the government control to forecast the whole process of a new unknown infectious disease in its early-outbreak. Methods: We first establish the iconic indicators to characterize the extent of epidemic spread. Then we develop the tracking and forecasting procedure with mild and reasonable assumption. Finally we apply it to analyze and evaluate the COVID-19 using the public available data for mainland China beyond Hubei Province from the China Centers for Disease Control (CDC) during the period of Jan 29th, 2020, to Feb 29th, 2020, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. Results: Forecasting results indicate that the number of newly confirmed cases will become zero in the mid-early March, and the number of patients treated in the hospital will become zero between mid-March and mid-April in mainland China beyond Hubei Province. Conclusions: The framework proposed in this paper can help people get a general understanding of the epidemic trends in counties where COVID-19 are raging as well as any other outbreaks of new and unknown infectious diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiwen Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data and Brain Computing,, Beijing, China
| | - Yanwen Zhang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Shan Lu
- School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China
| | - Shanshan Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Emergence Support Simulation Technologies for City Operations, Beijing, China
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4092
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Wangping J, Ke H, Yang S, Wenzhe C, Shengshu W, Shanshan Y, Jianwei W, Fuyin K, Penggang T, Jing L, Miao L, Yao H. Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared With Hunan, China. Front Med (Lausanne) 2020; 7:169. [PMID: 32435645 PMCID: PMC7218168 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2020] [Accepted: 04/14/2020] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the countries suffering the most with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemic trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies. Methods: We used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22 2020 to Apr 02 2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with a similar total population number to Italy, was used as a comparative item. Results: In the eSIR model, we estimated that the mean of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was 4.34 (95% CI, 3.04-6.00) in Italy and 3.16 (95% CI, 1.73-5.25) in Hunan. There would be a total of 182 051 infected cases (95%CI:116 114-274 378) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Aug 05 in Italy. Conclusion: Italy's current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures should be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Wangping
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
- Department of Military Medical Technology Support, School of Non-commissioned Officer, Army Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Han Ke
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Song Yang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Cao Wenzhe
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Wang Shengshu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Shanshan
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Wang Jianwei
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Kou Fuyin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Tai Penggang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Li Jing
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - Liu Miao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
| | - He Yao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Aging and Geriatrics, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases, Second Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing, China
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4093
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Liu Z, Huang S, Lu W, Su Z, Yin X, Liang H, Zhang H. Modeling the trend of coronavirus disease 2019 and restoration of operational capability of metropolitan medical service in China: a machine learning and mathematical model-based analysis. Glob Health Res Policy 2020; 5:20. [PMID: 32391439 PMCID: PMC7200323 DOI: 10.1186/s41256-020-00145-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2020] [Revised: 03/25/2020] [Accepted: 03/31/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background To contain the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, many unprecedented intervention measures are adopted by the government. However, these measures may interfere in the normal medical service. We sought to model the trend of COVID-19 and estimate the restoration of operational capability of metropolitan medical service in China. Methods Real-time data of COVID-19 and population mobility data were extracted from open sources. SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) and neural network models (NNs) were built to model disease trends in Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Combined with public transportation data, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to estimate the accumulated demands for nonlocal hospitalization during the epidemic period in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Results The number of infected people and deaths would increase by 45% and 567% respectively, given that the government only has implemented traffic control in Wuhan without additional medical professionals. The epidemic of Wuhan (measured by cumulative confirmed cases) was predicted to reach turning point at the end of March and end in later April, 2020. The outbreak in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou was predicted to end at the end of March and the medical service could be fully back to normal in middle of April. During the epidemic, the number of nonlocal inpatient hospitalizations decreased by 69.86%, 57.41% and 66.85% in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou respectively. After the end of epidemic, medical centers located in these metropolises may face 58,799 (95% CI 48926–67,232) additional hospitalization needs in the first month. Conclusion The COVID-19 epidemic in China has been effectively contained and medical service across the country is expected to return to normal in April. However, the huge unmet medical needs for other diseases could result in massive migration of patients and their families, bringing tremendous challenges for medical service in major metropolis and disease control for the potential asymptomatic virus carrier.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeye Liu
- 1State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037 China
| | - Shuai Huang
- 2Clinical Data Center, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou, 510623 Guangdong China
| | - Wenlong Lu
- 1State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037 China
| | - Zhanhao Su
- 1State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037 China
| | - Xin Yin
- 3School of Software & Microelectronics, Peking University, Beijing, 102600 China
| | - Huiying Liang
- 2Clinical Data Center, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou, 510623 Guangdong China
| | - Hao Zhang
- 4Heart center and Shanghai Institute of Pediatric Congenital Heart Disease, Shanghai Children's Medical Center, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200127 China
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4094
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How Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Can Help Better Manage the COVID-19 Pandemic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17093176. [PMID: 32370204 PMCID: PMC7246824 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17093176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 135] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Revised: 04/29/2020] [Accepted: 04/30/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
SARS-CoV2 is a novel coronavirus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization. Thanks to the latest advancements in the field of molecular and computational techniques and information and communication technologies (ICTs), artificial intelligence (AI) and Big Data can help in handling the huge, unprecedented amount of data derived from public health surveillance, real-time epidemic outbreaks monitoring, trend now-casting/forecasting, regular situation briefing and updating from governmental institutions and organisms, and health facility utilization information. The present review is aimed at overviewing the potential applications of AI and Big Data in the global effort to manage the pandemic.
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4095
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Sun Z, Zhang N, Li Y, Xu X. A systematic review of chest imaging findings in COVID-19. Quant Imaging Med Surg 2020; 10:1058-1079. [PMID: 32489929 PMCID: PMC7242306 DOI: 10.21037/qims-20-564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Accepted: 04/30/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Chest computed tomography (CT) is frequently used in diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) for detecting abnormal changes in the lungs and monitoring disease progression during the treatment process. Furthermore, CT imaging appearances are correlated with patients presenting with different clinical scenarios, such as early versus advanced stages, asymptomatic versus symptomatic patients, and severe versus nonsevere situations. However, its role as a screening and diagnostic tool in COVID-19 remains to be clarified. This article provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of the current literature on chest CT imaging findings with the aim of highlighting the contribution and judicious use of CT in the diagnosis of COVID-19. A search of PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar and Scopus was performed to identify studies reporting chest imaging findings in COVID-19. Chest imaging abnormalities associated with COVID-19 were extracted from the eligible studies and diagnostic value of CT in detecting these abnormal changes was compared between studies consisting of both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. A random-effects model was used to perform meta-analysis for calculation of pooled mean values and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of abnormal imaging findings. Fifty-five studies met the selection criteria and were included in the analysis. Pulmonary lesions more often involved bilateral lungs (78%, 95% CI: 45-100%) and were more likely to have a peripheral (65.35%, 95% CI: 25.93-100%) and peripheral plus central distribution (31.12%, 95% CI: 1.96-74.07%), but less likely to have a central distribution (3.57%, 95% CI: 0.99-9.80%). Ground glass opacities (GGO) (58.05%, 95% CI: 16.67-100%), consolidation (44.18%, 95% CI: 1.61-71.46%) and GGO plus consolidation (52.99%, 95% CI: 19.05-76.79%) were the most common findings reported in 94.5% (52/55) of the studies, followed by air bronchogram (42.50%, 95% CI: 7.78-80.39%), linear opacities (41.29%, 95% CI: 7.44-65.06%), crazy-paving pattern (23.57%, 95% CI: 3.13-91.67%) and interlobular septal thickening (22.91%, 95% CI: 0.90-80.49%). CT has low specificity in differentiating pneumonia-related lung changes due to significant overlap between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients with no significant differences in most of the imaging findings between these two groups (P>0.05). Furthermore, normal CT (13.31%, 95% CI: 0.74-38.36%) was reported in 26 (47.3%) studies. Despite widespread use of CT in the diagnosis of COVID-19 patients based on the current literature, CT findings are not pathognomonic as it lacks specificity in differentiating imaging appearances caused by different types of pneumonia. Further, there is a relatively high percentage of normal CT scans. Use of CT as a first-line diagnostic or screening tool in COVID-19 is not recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhonghua Sun
- Discipline of Medical Radiation Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
| | - Nan Zhang
- Department of Radiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Yu Li
- Department of Radiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Xunhua Xu
- Department of Radiology, China Resources & WISCO General Hospital, Wuhan 430080, China
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4096
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Majumder MS, Mandl KD. Early in the epidemic: impact of preprints on global discourse about COVID-19 transmissibility. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e627-e630. [PMID: 32220289 PMCID: PMC7159059 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30113-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 115] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2020] [Revised: 03/15/2020] [Accepted: 03/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Maimuna S Majumder
- Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, and Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
| | - Kenneth D Mandl
- Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, and Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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4097
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Wu D, Wu T, Liu Q, Yang Z. The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: What we know. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 94:44-48. [PMID: 32171952 PMCID: PMC7102543 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 672] [Impact Index Per Article: 168.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2020] [Revised: 03/03/2020] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
There is a current worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019; the pathogen called SARS-CoV-2; previously 2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 6 continents including 66 countries, as of 24:00 on March 2, 2020. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak from spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak site and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, diagnosis, treatments and preventions of this new type of coronavirus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Di Wu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Tiantian Wu
- Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Qun Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Zhicong Yang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
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4098
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Alimohamadi Y, Taghdir M, Sepandi M. Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. J Prev Med Public Health 2020; 53:151-157. [PMID: 32498136 PMCID: PMC7280807 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.20.076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 163] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Accepted: 03/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. METHODS International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R0." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study. RESULTS The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). CONCLUSIONS Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yousef Alimohamadi
- Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Pars Hospital, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maryam Taghdir
- Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mojtaba Sepandi
- Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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4099
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Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus that has caused a worldwide pandemic of the human respiratory illness COVID-19, resulting in a severe threat to public health and safety. Analysis of the genetic tree suggests that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the same Betacoronavirus group as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Although the route for viral transmission remains a mystery, SARS-CoV-2 may have originated in an animal reservoir, likely that of bat. The clinical features of COVID-19, such as fever, cough, shortness of breath, and fatigue, are similar to those of many acute respiratory infections. There is currently no specific treatment for COVID-19, but antiviral therapy combined with supportive care is the main strategy. Here, we summarize recent progress in understanding the epidemiological, virological, and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 and discuss potential targets with existing drugs for the treatment of this emerging zoonotic disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daolin Tang
- The Third Affiliated Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- Department of Surgery, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
| | - Paul Comish
- Department of Surgery, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
| | - Rui Kang
- Department of Surgery, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
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4100
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Moreno-Guerrero AJ, López-Belmonte J, Romero-Rodríguez JM, Rodríguez-García AM. Nomophobia: impact of cell phone use and time to rest among teacher students. Heliyon 2020; 6:e04084. [PMID: 32490259 PMCID: PMC7260290 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2020] [Revised: 04/18/2020] [Accepted: 05/22/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Nomophobia is one of the modern pathologies that has been born as a consequence of the impact that portable technologies have had on society and the dependence generated among citizens, especially towards smartphones. This phobia manifests itself and is intensified by the loss of immediate access to information, to the network of contacts, as well as by the impossibility of contacting or being contacted by other people. All this ends up interfering with the development of the person's daily life (physical, physiological, psychological, social problems, among others). Although the research is in an incipient phase, the problem has not been studied with the teaching population, so we present a pioneering study with this group, the main objective being to analyze the prevalence of nomophobia in future teachers of Early Childhood and Primary Education, as well as to check the incidence of rest time in the levels of nomophobia. The study follows a descriptive, correlational, transversal and predictive design and a quantitative methodology. The standardized nomophobia questionnaire NMP-Q was used on a sample of n = 849 future teachers. The results show average levels of nomophobia in most of the variables. However, the higher levels of nervousness, fear or anxiety stand out due to the inability to communicate instantaneously. Also, a higher prevalence of the problem is observed in the sector of the sample that claims to sacrifice rest time due to the use of their mobile phone. Although these numbers are not alarming, we must take into account that in some variables the prevalence is slightly higher, making it necessary to make educational interventions in this regard and to promote education for the responsible and critical use of media and technologies.
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