Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates

Trends in avoidable mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the European Union, 1995-2020: a retrospective secondary data analysis

Background

Certain causes of death can be avoided with access to timely prevention and treatment. We quantified trends in avoidable deaths from cardiovascular diseases for European Union (EU) countries from 1995 to 2020 and examined variations by demographics, disease characteristics, and geography.

Methods

Retrospective secondary data analysis of avoidable cardiovascular mortality using the WHO Mortality Database. Avoidable causes of death were identified from the OECD and Eurostat list (which uses an age threshold of 75 years). Regression models were used to identify changes in the trends of age-standardized mortality rates and potential years of life lost.

Findings

From 1995 to 2020, 11.4 million deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Europe were avoidable, resulting in 213.1 million potential life years lost. Avoidable deaths were highest among males (7.5 million), adults 65-74 years (6.8 million), and with the leading cause of death being ischemic heart disease (6.1 million). From its peak in 1995 until 2020, avoidable mortality from cardiovascular diseases has decreased by 57% across the EU. The difference in avoidable cardiovascular diseases mortality between females and males, and between Eastern and Western Europe has reduced greatly, however gaps continue to persist.

Interpretation

Avoidable mortality from cardiovascular diseases has decreased substantially among EU countries, although improvement has not been uniform across diseases, demographic groups or regions. These trends suggest additional policy interventions are needed to ensure that improvements in mortality are continued.

Funding

World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe.

Pediatric melanoma incidence and survival: a fifteen-year nationwide retrospective cohort study in Korea

The aim of this study was to explore the epidemiology of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and the associated risk factors influencing its occurrence and survival among Koreans aged <20 years. In this retrospective cohort investigation, we identified cases of incident melanoma diagnosed in Korean patients aged 0-19 years between 2004 and 2019, utilizing the National Health Insurance database. We assessed annual fluctuations in age-adjusted incidence rates and examined 5-year survival rates based on various factors, including sex, age, income level, sun-exposed sites, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Of 1160 patients, 51.4% were male and 48.6% were female. The mean age of the patients was 11 years, mostly belonging to the top 25% high-income group. The head and neck regions were the most frequently affected sites. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate of melanoma was 0.22 per 100,000 persons. This rate witnessed a decline of 4.5% annually from 2004 to 2012, followed by a subsequent increase of 12.6% annually from 2012 to 2019. Notably, patients with CMM in low-sun-exposed sites exhibited poorer survival rates compared with those in high-sun-exposed areas ( P  < 0.05). The incidence of melanomas in children and adolescents in Korea has shown a rising trend since 2012. Further research is needed to investigate the etiology and risk factors in pediatric patients.

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen

Background

This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.

Results

Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027.

Conclusions

Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

Spatiotemporal distribution and meteorological factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hubei province

BACKGROUND

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a vital rodent-borne disease, and poses a serious public health threat in Hubei province. We aimed to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of HFRS in Hubei province during 2005-2022, and the effects of meteorological factors.

METHODS

Data on HFRS cases at the county level in Hubei province during 2005-2022 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The monthly meteorological data at the city level was extracted from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System from 2016 to 2020. Descriptive analyses, joinpoint regression model, spatial correlation analyses, Geodetector model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model were conducted to investigate the epidemic characteristics, temporal trend, spatial distribution, influencing factors of HFRS and predict its trend.

RESULTS

A total of 6,295 cases were reported in Hubei province during 2005-2022, with an average incidence of 6/1,000,000. Most cases were males (74.52%) and aged 40-69 years (71.87%). The monthly HFRS cases showed two seasonal peaks, which were summer (May to June) and winter (November to December). The HFRS incidence remained fluctuating at a low level during 2005-2015, followed an increasing trend during 2015-2018, and then decreased during 2018-2022. Hotspots were concentrated in the center of Hubei province in all 3 periods, including Qianjiang, Tianmen and some counties from Xiangyang, Jingmen and Jingzhou cities. The distribution of HFRS had a positive association with wind speed, while a "V"-shaped correlation with mean temperature, with an explanatory power of 3.21% and 1.03% respectively (both P <0.05). The ARIMA model predicted about 1,223 cases occurred in the next 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

HFRS cases showed seasonal fluctuation and spatial clustering in Hubei province. Central plain areas showed high risk of HFRS. Wind speed and mean temperature had significant effects on the transmission of HFRS in Hubei province. The results alert health authorities to conduct disease-climate surveillance and comprehensive prevention strategies, especially in high-risk counties.

Long-term trends and future projections of larynx cancer burden in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 using GBD data

Larynx cancer poses a significant public health challenge in China, with rising incidence and mortality rates over the past decades. Understanding the long-term trends and underlying factors is crucial for effective intervention and policy formulation. Data were utilized from the global burden of disease (GBD) Study 2021 to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) due to larynx cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis identified key changes in trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analysis quantified the contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth to these trends. Our study found a significant increase in the incidence and prevalence of larynx cancer in China, particularly among males. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for males were substantially higher than those for females. Decomposition analysis revealed that aging was the primary driver of increasing incidence and mortality rates, while epidemiological changes had a mitigating effect. Joinpoint analysis identified periods of rapid urbanization and economic growth as key turning points for increased incidence. Bayesian APC models projected a continued upward trend in incidence rates up to 2030. The rising burden of larynx cancer in China underscores the need for targeted public health interventions, including smoking cessation programs, environmental pollution control, and early detection strategies. Addressing gender disparities and implementing effective prevention measures are crucial to mitigating the impact of larynx cancer in China.

Too much of a good thing? Projecting the need for gynecologic oncologists over the next 20 years

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of growth in gynecologic oncology fellowships in the United States on surgical volume for trainees and practicing gynecologic oncologists over the next 20 years.

METHODS

Using 2010-2019 age-specific gynecologic cancer incidence estimates from US Cancer Statistics, significant changes in incidence were identified with Joinpoint software. Statistically significant changes in annual rates were projected forward five years, and these estimates were used to generate projections of cancer cases in the population from the U.S. The number of practicing gynecologic oncologists was projected through 2045 based on current fellowship enrollment. For sensitivity analysis, we varied the number of new fellows and fellowships based on data trends from the last five years.

RESULTS

Over the next 20 years, cancer cases will increase by 14 % with the majority being endometrial. With current trainee numbers, the average annual number of new surgical cancer patients per practicing gynecologic oncologist will decrease from 73 to 51 (30 % decrease). An increase of one fellow per year nationally to the total number of trainees will further decrease new surgical cancer cases to 43 cases/gynecologic oncologist annually (41 % decrease). When accounting for one additionally trainee nationally per year over the next 20 years, the average number of oncologic surgical cases per fellow/year will decrease from 208 to 160 (23 % decrease). Under the assumption of no additional fellowship positions, surgical cases will increase from 208 to 226 per fellow/year (9 % increase).

CONCLUSION

The gynecologic cancer caseload of practicing gynecologic oncologists is estimated to decrease by nearly 41 % and trainee case volume will drop by 23 % over the next 20 years with minimal continued addition of training positions. Careful consideration should be given to creating an appropriate balance between the number of practicing gynecologic oncologists, potential dilution of programs' case volume per trainee, and the effects on the needs of future patients.

The impact of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists on insulin utilisation and costs in Australia: a national retrospective observational cross-sectional study

Background

Global insulin requirements for type 2 diabetes were predicted to increase by more than 20% from 2018 to 2030. However, this did not anticipate the rapid increase in use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors that has occurred over recent years. The current study aims to examine changes in insulin utilisation and costs in Australia from 2003 to 2023.

Methods

We conducted a large-scale observational study of national insulin utilisation and expenditure in Australia from 2003 to 2023 using the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. The proportion of insulin-treated people with type 2 diabetes between 2013 and 2023 was estimated using National Diabetes Services Scheme data. Joinpoint models and interrupted time series analysis were used to examine utilisation trends.

Findings

Insulin utilisation (units of insulin per person with diabetes) increased by an average of 2.71% per annum (95% CI 1.97, 3.73) from 2003 to 2015, then fell by 2.70% per annum (95% CI -4.55, -1.39) from 2015 to 2023. The proportion of insulin-treated people with type 2 diabetes increased by 1.00% per annum (95% CI 0.81, 1.25) from 2013 to 2020, then fell by 0.66% per annum (95% CI -1.62, -0.04) from 2020 to 2023. A 43% reduction in inflation-adjusted insulin expenditure was observed between 2015 and 2023 due to a combination of reduced utilisation and reduction in the price of insulin glargine.

Interpretation

Projected global insulin requirements and costs may be less than previously anticipated if reduced use of insulin in Australia is similarly observed in other countries.

Funding

No funding was received for this study.

The global, regional, and national patterns of change in the burden of congenital birth defects, 1990-2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021 and forecast to 2040

Background

Congenital birth defects (CBDs) present enormous challenges to global healthcare systems. These conditions severely impact patients' health and underscore issues related to socioeconomic development and healthcare accessibility and efficiency. Previous studies have been geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for four major congenital birth defects-congenital heart defects (CHD), neural tube defects (NTDs), digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs), and Down syndrome (DS) from 1990 to 2021, emphasizing health inequalities. The goal is to offer scientific evidence for optimizing resource allocation, focusing on high-burden populations, and reducing disease burden.

Methods

This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of CBDs and their changes from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. To conduct a more focused analysis, four specific CBDs were selected: CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS. DALYs were used as the metric, combined with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, frontier analysis to estimate achievable outcomes based on development levels, decomposition analysis to identify drivers of disease burden changes, Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict future disease burden trends.

Findings

Compared to 1990, the global burden of the CBDs in 2021 showed a downward trend. Males had a higher burden than females, with the highest burden observed in low-SDI regions. When examining CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS specifically, trends in burden changes varied across different CBDs at the global, regional, and national levels. Frontier analysis revealed potential for burden improvement in various countries and territories. Decomposition analysis highlighted differences in disease burden drivers across SDI regions, showing the greatest improvement observed in low-SDI regions. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a downward trend in DALYs burden across SDI regions, and BAPC model predictions suggested that the burden of CBDs will continue to decline in the future.

Interpretation

CBDs pose a major challenge to global public health. Despite an overall decline in disease burden, health inequalities remain prominent, particularly in countries and territories with lower levels of development. Future public health interventions should focus on countries and territories with low levels of development by optimizing healthcare resource allocation, improving basic health infrastructure, enhancing health education, and reducing disease burden inequalities. Global collaboration and data sharing are essential to promote a lifecycle management model for CBDs research and treatment, advancing global health development.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82270310) and the Jiangsu Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. BE2023662).

Long-term trends in the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China: A comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030 based on the global burden of disease study 2021

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a significant public health issue in China, with distinctive epidemiological characteristics and evolving trends. This study aims to analyze long-term trends in NPC burden from 1990 to 2021 and provide projections.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (1990-2021) was utilized to evaluate NPC metrics, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression identified significant changes over time. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort. A decomposition analysis identified factors influencing changes in NPC incidence, prevalence, and DALYs. Projections were made for future trends up to 2030.

RESULTS

In 2021, NPC significantly impacted China, with males experiencing higher incidence (5.16 per 100,000) and mortality rates (2.32 per 100,000) than females. NPC prevalence was 342,477 cases, with males accounting for 260,164. DALYs totaled 982,657, predominantly affecting males. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China decreased from 4.64 to 3.42 per 100,000, while globally it declined from 1.74 to 1.38 per 100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, trends showed an initial decline in ASIR and ASPR, followed by a steady increase from 2006 onwards, with males experiencing more significant rises. Mortality rates showed a general downward trend, yet males remained disproportionately affected. Comparative global data indicated that while NPC metrics are declining worldwide, the burden remains higher in China. Decomposition analysis highlighted aging and population growth as major contributors to the NPC burden. BAPC projections indicated a continuing rise in age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for both males and females up to 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of NPC in China remains significant, particularly among the male population. Despite declining mortality rates, the increasing prevalence suggests that more people are living with NPC. Targeted public health interventions are urgently needed to address these gender-specific trends and reduce the disease burden.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2024 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on stomach cancer

INTRODUCTION

We estimated cancer mortality figures in five major Asian countries and Australia for 2024, focusing on stomach cancer, a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Eastern Asia.

METHODS

We computed country- and sex-specific annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) for total cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites, using WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases from 1970 to 2021 or the latest available year. We predicted figures for 2024 and estimated the number of avoided cancer deaths in 1994-2024.

RESULTS

All cancers combined ASR declined between 2015-2019 and 2024 across considered countries and sexes. In 2024, the lowest predicted male rate is in the Philippines (75.0/100 000) and the highest in Australia (94.2/100 000). The Republic of Korea is predicted to have the lowest female ASR (42.1/100 000) while the Philippines the highest (74.5/100 000). Over the last three decades, 121 300 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Hong Kong SAR, 69 500 in Israel, 1 246 300 in Japan, 653 300 in the Republic of Korea, 303 300 in Australia, and 89 700 among Philippine men. Mortality from stomach cancer has been decreasing since 1970 in all considered countries and both sexes. Significant decreases are at all age groups Male rates remain, however, high in Japan (8.7/100 000) and the Republic of Korea (6.2/100 000).

CONCLUSION

Declining cancer mortality is predicted in the considered countries, notably reducing stomach cancer burden. Stomach cancer, however, remains a major public health issue in East Asia.

Temporal evolution of suicide by levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or over between 2009 and 2022

PURPOSE

Previous studies have reported that levels of rurality and deprivation are factors associated with suicide risk. Reports on the association between rurality, deprivation and suicide incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic are scarce. The study aims to investigate how suicide rates evolved in areas with different levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older between 2009 and 2022.

METHODS

This study used population density in 2020 as an indicator of rurality and per capita prefectural income in 2019 as a proxy for deprivation in Japan's 47 prefectures. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze secular trends in suicide rates by rurality and deprivation.

RESULTS

Suicide rates for both men and women at different levels of rurality and deprivation remained roughly parallel during the research period. Suicide rates for men and women at all levels of rurality and deprivation were on a downward trend until around 2019, just before the onset of the pandemic. Following this, suicide rates in women showed a clear upward trend, while the trend in suicide rates for men also changed around 2019, with a slightly increasing or flat trend thereafter. Changes in suicide rates were greater among women and those aged 20-59 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In Japan, time trends in suicide rates for both men and women have changed before and after the pandemic, but levels of rurality and deprivation across the 47 prefectures do not appear to have contributed much to these changes.

Incidence distributions, risk factors and trends of vaginal cancer: A global population-based study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors and trends for vaginal cancer.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational design.

SETTING

Data were collected from multiple sources, including the Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, Global Burden of Disease, World Bank and the United Nations.

POPULATION

Individuals diagnosed with vaginal cancer.

METHODS

The study collected data on vaginal cancer from the specified sources. The age-standardised rate (ASR) of vaginal cancer was calculated for different regions and age groups. Multivariable and univariable linear regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between risk factors and the incidence of vaginal cancer. Trend analysis was conducted using joinpoint regression analysis, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures of the study were the incidence of vaginal cancer, risk factors associated with the disease and the trend of its incidence over time.

RESULTS

There were 17 908 newly reported cases of vaginal cancer (ASR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.30-0.44) in 2020, with the highest ASRs reported in South-Central Asia and Southern Africa. Risk factors associated with a higher incidence of vaginal cancer included a higher prevalence of unsafe sex and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The temporal trend showed an overall rising incidence globally, with Iceland (AAPC = 29.56, 95% CI 12.12-49.71), Chile (AAPC = 22.83, 95% CI 13.20-33.27), Bahrain (AAPC = 22.05, 95% CI 10.83-34.40) and the UK (AAPC = 1.40, 95% CI 0.41-2.39) demonstrating the most significant rising trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant regional disparities and risk factors associated with vaginal cancer underscore the necessity for targeted interventions and education, particularly in regions with a lower human development index (HDI) and a higher prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The increasing incidence trend emphasises the need for enhanced HPV vaccination rates to prevent the development of vaginal cancer.

Trends and epidemiology of lower trunk fractures in the super elderly population in the United States from 2011 to 2020

INTRODUCTION

Fractures of the lower trunk are among the most common fractures occurring in the elderly. Super elderly individuals (i.e., those 80 years of age and older) represent a growing segment of the population and are especially prone to these fractures. The contemporary epidemiology of lower trunk fractures in the super elderly population is incompletely described in the literature.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This descriptive epidemiology study used the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) to examine the incidence and recent trends of lower trunk fractures (i.e., fractures of the hip, pelvis, and lumbar spine) occurring among super elderly individuals in the United States (US) from 2011 to 2020. Annual, overall, and age-/sex-specific incidence rates (IRs) were analyzed. Average annual percent change (AAPC) estimates were calculated to indicate the magnitude/direction of trends in annual injury rates.

RESULTS

An estimated N=1,226,160 super elderly patients sustained lower trunk fractures over the 10-year study period for an overall IR of 100.2 per 10,000 person-years at-risk (PYR). Hip fractures accounted for the largest percentage of cases (IR=71.7 PYR), followed by lumbar spine fractures (IR=14.7), and pelvic fractures (IR=14.3). The incidence of lower trunk fractures among super elderly females (IR=121.5 PYR) was significantly greater than that of males (IR=65.7 PYR). The incidence of lower trunk fractures among nonagenarians and centenarians was significantly higher than that of octogenarians. Accounting for population growth yielded a significantly increasing annual incidence of lower trunk fractures in super elderly patients over the study period from 86.7 PYR in 2011 to 107.2 PYR in 2020 (AAPC=2.7, p<0.001). The annual incidence of both pelvic (AAPC=5.8) and lumbar spine (AAPC=6.9) fractures increased at a significantly higher rate than that of hip fractures (AAPC=1.4).

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the annual incidence of lower trunk fractures in the oldest cohort of patients in the US (80+ years of age) increased significantly during the recent decade from 2011 to 2020, with pelvic and lumbar fractures in particular becoming increasingly common. Increased incidence rates highlight the need for future research aimed at optimizing outcomes and quality of life in this frail and ever-growing segment of the population.

Diabetic Ketoacidosis and Adverse Outcomes Among Pregnant Individuals With Pregestational Diabetes in the United States, 2010-2020

OBJECTIVE

To assess the frequency of, risk factors for, and adverse outcomes associated with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at delivery hospitalization among individuals with pregestational diabetes (type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus) and secondarily to evaluate the frequency of and risk factors for antepartum and postpartum hospitalizations for DKA.

METHODS

We conducted a serial, cross-sectional study using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Readmissions Database from 2010 to 2020 of pregnant individuals with pregestational diabetes hospitalized for delivery. The exposures were 1) sociodemographic and clinical risk factors for DKA and 2) DKA. The outcomes were DKA at delivery hospitalization, maternal morbidity (nontransfusion severe maternal morbidity (SMM), critical care procedures, cardiac complications, acute renal failure, and transfusion), and adverse pregnancy outcomes (preterm birth, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and cesarean delivery) and secondarily DKA at antepartum and postpartum hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Of 392,796 deliveries in individuals with pregestational diabetes (27.2% type 1 diabetes, 72.8% type 2 diabetes), there were 4,778 cases of DKA at delivery hospitalization (89.1% type 1 diabetes, 10.9% type 2 diabetes). The frequency of DKA at delivery hospitalization was 1.2% (4.0% with type 1 diabetes, 0.2% with type 2 diabetes), and the mean annual percentage change was 10.8% (95% CI, 8.2-13.2%). Diabetic ketoacidosis at delivery hospitalization was significantly more likely among those who had type 1 diabetes compared with those with type 2 diabetes, who were younger in age, who delivered at larger and metropolitan hospitals, and who had Medicaid insurance, lower income, multiple gestations, and prior psychiatric illness. Diabetic ketoacidosis during the delivery hospitalization was associated with an increased risk of nontransfusion SMM (20.8% vs 2.4%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 8.18, 95% CI, 7.20-9.29), critical care procedures (7.3% vs 0.4%, aOR 15.83, 95% CI, 12.59-19.90), cardiac complications (7.8% vs 0.8%, aOR 8.87, 95% CI, 7.32-10.76), acute renal failure (12.3% vs 0.7%, aOR 9.78, 95% CI, 8.16-11.72), and transfusion (6.2% vs 2.2%, aOR 2.27, 95% CI, 1.87-2.75), as well as preterm birth (31.9% vs 13.5%, aOR 2.41, 95% CI, 2.17-2.69) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (37.4% vs 28.1%, aOR 1.11, 95% CI, 1.00-1.23). In secondary analyses, the overall frequency of antepartum DKA was 3.1%, and the mean annual percentage change was 4.1% (95% CI, 0.3-8.6%); the overall frequency of postpartum DKA was 0.4%, and the mean annual percentage change was 3.5% (95% CI, -1.6% to 9.6%). Of 3,092 antepartum hospitalizations among individuals with DKA, 15.7% (n=485) had a recurrent case of DKA at delivery hospitalization. Of 1,419 postpartum hospitalizations among individuals with DKA, 20.0% (n=285) previously had DKA at delivery hospitalization. The above risk factors for DKA at delivery hospitalization were similar for DKA at antepartum and postpartum hospitalizations.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of DKA at delivery hospitalization and antepartum hospitalizations for DKA increased between 2010 and 2020 among deliveries in individuals with pregestational diabetes in the United States. Diabetic ketoacidosis is associated with an increased risk of maternal morbidity and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Risk factors for DKA at delivery were similar to those for DKA during the antepartum and postpartum periods.

Evolving molecular HIV clusters revealed genotype-specific dynamics in Guangzhou, China (2008-2020)

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the genotype-specific dynamics of molecular HIV clusters (MHCs) in Guangzhou, China, aiming to enhance HIV control.

METHODS

HIV pol sequences from people with HIV (PWH) in Guangzhou (2008-2020) were obtained for genotyping and molecular network creation. MHCs were identified and categorized into three types: emerging, growing, or stable. Clustering rates, proportions of cluster types, and members within each type were calculated and their trends were assessed using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Among 8395 PWH, the most prevalent HIV-1 genotypes were CRF07_BC (39.7%) and CRF01_AE (32.6%). The genotype composition has been stable since 2012 (Ps > 0.05). The overall clustering rate was 43.3%, with significant variations across genotypes (P < 0.001), indicating genotype-specific transmission fitness. Significant declines in overall and genotype-specific clustering rates toward the end of 2020 (Ps < 0.05), potentially offer support for HIV control efforts in reducing local infections. The continuously increasing proportions of stable clusters and the gradually decreasing proportions of emerging and growing clusters (either Ps < 0.05 or Ps > 0.05) suggest a trend toward stable molecular network structure. However, growing clusters exhibited CRF55_01B, CRF07_BC, and CRF59_01B dominance that indicate their priority for interventions.

CONCLUSION

The evolving MHCs highlight the genotype-specific cluster dynamics, providing fresh insights for enhanced prevention and control strategies.

Incidence of Breast Cancer in Younger Women: A Canadian Trend Analysis

Purpose: Breast cancer (BC) incidence is increasing globally. Age-specific BC incidence trend analyses are lacking for women under age 50 in Canada. In this study, we evaluate the incidence trends in breast cancer in women under age 50 in Canada and compare them with corresponding trends among women 50 to 54. Methods: BC case counts were obtained from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984-1991) and the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2019) both housed at Statistics Canada. Population data were also obtained from Statistics Canada. Annual female BC age-specific incidence rates from 1984 to 2019 were derived for the following age groups: 20 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49, 40 to 44, 45 to 49, and 50 to 54. Changes in trends in age-specific BC incidence rates, if any, and annual percent changes (APCs) for each identified trend, were determined using JoinPoint. Results: Statistically significant increasing trends in BC incidence rates were noted for almost all age groups: since 2001 for 20 to 29 (APC = 3.06%, P < .001); since 2009 for 30 to 39 (APC = 1.25%, P = .007); since 1984 for both 40 to 49 (APC = 0.26%, P < .001) and 40 to 44 (APC = 0.19%, P = .011), increased since 2015 for 40 to 49 (APC = 0.77%, P = .047); and since 2005 for 50 to 54 (APC = 0.38%, P = .022). Among women 45 to 49 there was a non-significant increase since 2005 (APC = 0.24, P = .058). Statistically significant average annualized increases in BC incidence rates were observed for each age group studied. Conclusions: Examining age-specific incidence rates formed a more complete picture of BC time trends with significant increasing trends in the incidence of BC among women in their 20s, 30s, 40s, and early 50s. A greater awareness regarding the increasing number of cases of BC in women younger than 50 is critical to allow for earlier diagnosis with its resultant reduced mortality and morbidity.

Utilization and cost of non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs in Australia from 2013 to 2023

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the utilization and costs of non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) in Australia from 2013 to 2023.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) administrative dataset of 118 727 494 GLD prescriptions. The main outcome measures were the annual number of GLD prescriptions dispensed, accounting for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence and healthcare system costs, adjusted for inflation.

RESULTS

Utilization of GLDs doubled from 6.4 million prescriptions in 2013 to 15.6 million in 2023. The average annual percent increase in utilization was 8.1%, compared to the average annual increase in prevalence of T2DM of 1.8%. The biggest change was in sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, for which there was an average annual increase in utilization of 59.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 51.7%, 68.2%; p < 0.05) from 2014 (first full year of PBS listing), followed by glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), which showed an increase of 31.4% (95% CI 28.5%, 33.8%; p < 0.05) annually (2013 to 2023). Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor utilization tripled, with an average annual increase of 10.9% (95% CI 8.1%, 13.8%; p < 0.05), but this plateaued from 2020. Metformin utilization increased by 4.7% (95% CI 2.0%, 6.9%; p < 0.05) annually. In contrast, sulphonylurea, glitazone and acarbose utilization declined. Total GLD costs increased threefold over the same period. Despite only accounting for 11.7% of utilization, GLP-1RAs contributed to 35% of the costs.

CONCLUSION

Utilization of GLDs doubled, and associated costs tripled over the past 11 years, with no sign of either utilization or costs plateauing, predominantly due to increased GLP-1RA and SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing.

The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer tackle in Brazil's public and private healthcare system: time series study between 2014 and 2022

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed the healthcare systems of many countries and negatively impacted the care of other diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the trend of screening mammograms, oncological breast surgeries, and breast cancer hospitalizations in Brazil's public and private healthcare system between 2014 and 2022.

METHOD

This ecological time series study uses the inflection point regression model and semester percentage change (SPC). We use the open-access dataset of the different healthcare systems in Brazil. We analyzed the trend of the variables in the pre-pandemic and the effect of the pandemic on the total time series.

RESULTS

In 2020, compared to 2019, the decrease in screening mammograms, oncological breast surgeries, and breast cancer hospitalization was - 41.44%, -23.13%, and - 10.52% (public health system) and - 29.49%, -18.96%, and - 15.35% (private healthcare system). In the public healthcare system, the pandemic has enhanced the decreasing trend of mammograms (SPC - 1.6% before and - 3.4% after), has reverted the stationary trend of oncological breast surgeries to decreasing (SPC - 1.0%), has slowed the increasing trend of breast cancer hospitalization (SPC 1.8% before and 0.9% after). In the private healthcare system, the pandemic has reverted the stationary trend of mammograms to decreasing (SPC - 1.0%), has slowed the increasing trend of breast cancer surgeries (SPC 2.3% before and 0.8% after), has reverted the growing trend of breast cancer hospitalization (SPC 3.9%) to stationary.

CONCLUSION

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an increase in inequalities between healthcare systems, especially in breast cancer screening.

Analysis of the epidemiological trends of Tuberculosis in China from 2000 to 2021 based on the joinpoint regression model

BACKGROUND

China is ranked third globally in terms of burden and has a moderately high to high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). This study meticulously investigated the notification rates of TB and assessed the epidemic in China from 2000 to 2021. The aim of the study was to provide robust supporting data that is crucial for enhancing TB prevention and control strategies.

METHODS

Extensive data regarding TB notification rates in China between 2000 and 2021 was collected. The joinpoint regression model was subsequently utilized to assess the temporal trends in the notification rates of TB, which were analyzed through the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

RESULTS

During the study period (2000-2021), the standardized notification rates of TB in China ranged from 38.89/100,000 to 101.15/100,000, with a significant annual average decrease of 4.43% (P < 0.05). Before the COVID-19 pandemic, a marked acceleration in this decline was observed from 2006 to 2015, with an APC of 4.62% (P < 0.05). Stratified by age and sex, the age group with the most significant annual decline in overall standardized notification rates of TB among males in China was < 15 years old, followed by 55-64 years old, and the group with the least decrease was 25-44 years old. Similarly, the age group with the most significant annual decline in standardized notification rates of TB among females was < 15 years old.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemic of TB in China exhibited a downward trajectory between 2000 and 2021. However, it is imperative to prioritize the attention given to males and older adults, and to promote specific and effective prevention and control strategies for these populations.

Sex-related differences in vitamin D testing in the Veneto Region, Italy: a retrospective analysis from 2005 to 2016

A retrospective analysis was performed to evaluate the frequency of vitamin D blood testing in individuals from the Padua province, Veneto, Italy from 2005 to 2016. A significant increase in the frequency of vitamin D blood tests, particularly in females was observed and in individuals with severe vitamin D deficiency (Class I).

PURPOSE

Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to negative health outcomes that extend beyond bone-related conditions. The frequency of vitamin D blood testing in residents from the Padua province, (Veneto, Italy) from 2005 to 2016 was evaluated.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively retrieved from blood test databases (Laboratory Medicine Unit, Padua University Hospital) and information on number of vitamin D blood tests performed on residents from 2005 to 2016 was collected. Data were stratified by sex and ten birth cohorts from 1901 to 2016. Blood tests were classified into five vitamin D classes: I < 50 nmol/L, II 50-74.9 nmol/L, III 75-149 nmol/L, IV 150-250 nmol/L, and V > 250-1000 nmol/L. Blood test trends were analyzed as blood test rate and vitamin D class rate/resident population. Population analysis was analyzed by incidence rates and stratified by vitamin D class.

RESULTS

293,013 vitamin D blood tests were conducted between 2005 and 2016 across 10 birth cohorts. Females accounted for 75% of tests and fewer were conducted in the youngest and oldest birth cohorts. Sex differences in vitamin D blood test frequency were observed; adjusted rates ranging from 1.7 to 35.6% for males and 8 to 81% for females from 2005 to 2016. Crude incidence rates (per 1000 from 2005 to 2016) varied from 1.5 to 10.8‰ for males and 7 to 19.4‰ for females. Crude blood test rates for vitamin D deficiency (Class I) increased from 1.1 to 9.9‰ in 2016 for males and 5 to 17.3‰ for females. Crude incidence rates (from 2005 to 2016) for Class I were 9.7-57.1‰ in males and 43.6-92.4‰ in females.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight sex-related differences in vitamin D testing, providing valuable insight for healthcare planning.

Burden of diabetes mellitus in Weifang: Changing trends in prevalence and deaths from 2010 to 2021

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to analyze the death characteristics and burden of disease (BOD) in diabetes mellitus (DM) patients in Weifang from 2010 to 2021. The findings will serve as a foundational data source and theoretical framework for public health administrative departments in the formulation of DM-related policies.

METHODS

The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD) in DM residents from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed using the Joinpoint software to reflect the changing trend of the BOD in DM patients. Additionally, we conducted an analysis of the various causes of death among these patients and compared BOD in diabetic patients with different backgrounds.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2021, the burden of disease, which includes DALY, YL, and YLD, has been increasing among patients with DM in Weifang. It is noteworthy that the burden of disease is particularly pronounced among male patients and those aged 75 or above. Additionally, it is observed that widowed and illiterate DM patients have comparatively longer survival times. Furthermore, among the DM patients who have unfortunately passed away, it has been identified that unspecified DM with ketoacidosis accounts for 10.03% of the deaths as a direct cause of death. In contrast, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with kidney complications contributes to 10.23% of the deaths as the fundamental cause of death.

CONCLUSION

The city is faced with a significant challenge of diabetes, which is influenced by factors such as gender, age, cultural background, and marital status. Unspecified diabetes mellitus (DM) with ketoacidosis (10.03%) and T2DM with renal complications (0.23%) are identified as the primary direct and underlying causes of death among diabetic patients, respectively. This study serves as a valuable reference for other regions in terms of diabetes prevention, control, and the management of chronic diseases.

Temporal trends of the burden of ischemic stroke attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in China from 1999 to 2019

BACKGROUND

High levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) can lead to the occurrence and development of atherosclerosis, which is one of the important risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS). However, details regarding the evolution of the IS burden attributable to high LDL-C in China has not been available. The objective of this study was to examine the changes over time, from 1990 to 2019, in the burden of IS attributed to high levels of LDL-C in China and to estimate the individual impacts of age, period, and cohort on the burden of IS associated with high LDL-C.

METHODS

Detailed data on IS burden attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2019 in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The numbers and age-standardized rates of IS-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high LDL-C were assessed by age and sex. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the burden of IS due to high LDL-C were analyzed using Joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort analysis was carried out to assess the individual impacts of age, period, and cohort on the trends over time of mortality and DALY rate.

RESULTS

The number of IS-related deaths and DALYs due to high LDL-C in China were 182.7 thousand and 4.43 million in 2019, respectively, both more than double the corresponding numbers reported in 1990. However, despite these increased, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) remained unchanged. In 2019, men under 84 years of age had higher death and under 79 years of age had higher DALYs than women. However, above these ages, the gender disparities were reversed. Furthermore, age-specific rates of death, as well as DALY of IS attributable to high LDL-C in 2019 increased with age for both women and men, except for death in adults over 95 years old; and were greater in men than in women. From 1990 to 2019, males consistently had a higher ASMR and ASDR than females in China. During 1990-2019, the ASMR in women slightly decreased before 1997, sharply increased from 1997 to 2004, and then continuously decreased from 2004 to 2019, with an overall AAPC value of -0.4% (95% CI -0.8%, -0.0%). However, for the ASMR of men in China, the overall trend is upward and the AAPC is 0.5%(95% CI 0.1%, 0.8%). The ASDR in women and men had the similar trend as the ASMR over the time, with an AAPC of -0.4% (95% CI -0.7%, -0.1%) and 0.3% (95% CI 0.1%, 0.5%), respectively. The age-period-cohort analysis indicated a rise in period effects and a decline in cohort effects on mortality and DALY rate associated with IS caused by high LDL-C in both genders. Age effect on mortality rates from IS due to high LDL-C showed an exponential increased with age in all women and men except for the 60-69 age group and over 95 age group. The age relative risk of IS DALY rate due to high LDL-C increased with age in both genders except for 65-74 age group and over 95 age group.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the burden of IS caused by high LDL-C in China significantly increased among both sexes combined and among men, while significantly decreased among women. Elderly have a substantial burden of IS attributable to high LDL-C. Therefore, effective and tailored strategies based on gender and age for IS primary prevention and management of IS and high LDL-C are urgently needed in China.

Temporal trends and spatial analysis of leprosy surveillance indicators in the municipalities of the state of Mato Grosso, 2008-2022

BACKGROUND

In 2022, Mato Grosso (MT, Brazil) reported the highest detection rate of new leprosy cases (66.20 per 100,000 inhabitants) among all Brazilian states. Monitoring of leprosy indicators is an important control strategy in hyperendemic areas. We aimed to describe the temporal trends and identify clusters of municipalities according to leprosy surveillance indicators in MT between 2008 and 2022.

METHODS

Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System were used to analyze new case detection rate of leprosy (NCDR), new case detection rate of leprosy among children aged <15 years (NCD15), and rate of new cases with grade 2 physical disability (G2DR). Spatial scan statistics with pure spatial analysis and spatial autocorrelation maps were used to analyze the spatial patterns. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in these indicators.

RESULTS

The NCDR decreased (APC: -20.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI): -38.7% to -7.4%) between 2019 and 2021. The NCD15 also decreased (APC: -19.2%, 95% CI: -36.4% to -10.3%) between 2018 and 2022. Conversely, the G2DR remained stable throughout the study (APC: 3.2%, 95% CI: -0.1% to 6.7%). Global Moran's index (Moran's I) confirmed the existence of spatial dependence among the municipalities for NCDR (Moran's I=0.348), NCD15 (Moran's I=0.269), and G2DR (Moran's I=0.275). Clusters with high NCDR levels included 13 municipalities in the northern and eastern macroregions, while clusters with high G2DR levels included 12 municipalities in the northwestern, northern, and eastern macroregions.

CONCLUSIONS

The NCDR and NCD15 decreased, but the G2DR remained stable between 2018 and 2022. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had a potential negative impact on leprosy case detection, highlighting the need to strengthen leprosy surveillance efforts. The identified clusters of MT municipalities can significantly assist in this task.

Trends in heart failure mortality in Sweden between 1997 and 2022

AIMS

Data from US have shown a reversal in the improvement of heart failure (HF)-related mortality over the last ~10 years. It is unknown whether these trends generalize to European universal healthcare systems. We assessed temporal trends in (i) HF-related mortality in the overall national population; and (ii) all-cause mortality following an incident HF diagnosis, overall and stratified by ejection fraction (EF), in Sweden between 1997 and 2022.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Annual mortality rates with a HF diagnosis as underlying cause were extracted from the Cause of Death Register. All-cause mortality following incident HF was assessed in two HF cohorts derived from the National Patient Register (NPR) and the Swedish HF Registry (SwedeHF). Temporal trends were presented as average annual percentage change (AAPC). Between 1997 and 2022, age-adjusted HF-related mortality in the general population declined from 33.4 to 23.8 per 100 000 individuals (AAPC -2.15%, p < 0.001). In the HF cohort from NPR (n = 423 092), all-cause mortality at 1, 3, and 5 years following a first diagnosis of HF was 25%, 46%, and 58%, respectively, in 2022; 1-year mortality declined (AAPC -1.10%, p < 0.001) over time regardless of age or sex. In SwedeHF (n = 63 753), the decline in 1-year mortality was less steep with increasing EF (AAPC -2.64%, p < 0.001; -2.30%, p = 0.062; and -2.16%, p = 0.032 in EF <40%, 40-49%, and ≥50%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure-related mortality has declined over the last ~25 years in Sweden. All-cause mortality in patients with HF has also declined, more in HF with reduced than preserved EF, mirroring the different availability of life-saving treatments across the EF spectrum.

An increasing trend of overweight and obesity in the Japanese incident end-stage kidney disease population

AIM

The global prevalence of overweight/obesity has been rising, and this trend is apparent in US and European incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) populations. We aimed to examine temporal trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity and underweight among adult incident ESKD patients in Japan by year of dialysis initiation between 2006 and 2019 in comparison with those observed in the Japanese adult population during the same period.

METHODS

Using data from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry and the National Health and Nutrition Survey, the sex-specific prevalence of overweight/obesity and that of underweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and <18.5 kg/m2, respectively) were calculated, adjusted for age according to the 2019 Population Census via the direct method. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to examine trends.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2019, the age-adjusted prevalence of overweight/obesity in the incident ESKD population increased for males (AAPC 3.36 [95% CI, 2.70 to 4.09]) and females (AAPC 2.86 [95% CI, 1.65 to 4.19]). The age-adjusted prevalence of overweight/obesity in the general population increased for males (AAPC 0.87 [95% CI, 0.26 to 1.42]) but not for females (AAPC 0.01 [95% CI, -0.55 to 0.57]). The age-adjusted prevalence of underweight in the incident ESKD population significantly decreased but was higher than that in the general population for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

An increasing trend of overweight/obesity was observed in the incident ESKD population in Japan. There is a pressing need to address both underweight and overweight/obesity in the incident ESKD population.

Cardiovascular disease in pregnancy: Prevalence and obstetric outcomes in a Swedish population-based cohort study between 2000 and 2019

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease during pregnancy (cardiovascular disease diagnosed before, during or up to 6 months after childbirth) and the risk of adverse outcomes associated with it have not been previously described in Sweden. This study examined trends in prevalence of cardiovascular disease and its association with maternal and perinatal outcomes, overall and by timing of diagnosis in relation to pregnancy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This population-based observational retrospective cohort study consisted of women aged 15-49 years who were registered in the Swedish Medical Birth Register 2000-2019. Prevalence was defined as annual diagnosis of cardiovascular disease per pregnant woman as numerator and all pregnant women per year as denominator. Adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes were analyzed using time-dependent Cox regression and Poisson regression models. Outcomes were obtained during and after childbirth up to 1 year postpartum, depending on the outcome.

RESULTS

There were 2 069 107 births to 1 186 137 women (911 101 primiparous). The prevalence of cardiovascular disease among pregnant women in Sweden during 2000-2019 increased from 0.31% to 1.34%, for non-congenital cardiovascular disease, this was primarily driven by arrythmia (0.11%-0.58%). Primiparous women with cardiovascular disease had a higher risk of eclampsia over-all (aHR 4.50, 95% CI 2.01-10.05) and when diagnosed during pregnancy (aHR 3.22, 95% CI 1.21-8.61); admission to psychiatric ward overall (aHR 2.51, 95% CI 1.30-4.83), and when diagnosed during pregnancy (aHR 2.54, 95% CI 1.21-5.34); and one-year mortality when diagnosed before pregnancy (aHR 1.67, 95% CI 1.16-2.42) and when diagnosed postpartum (aHR 6.59, 95% CI 3.38-12.84), compared to those without cardiovascular disease. Children born to women with cardiovascular disease diagnosed both overall and in relation to timing of diagnosis had an increased risk of being born preterm and small for gestational age.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular disease prevalence among pregnant women in Sweden increased during 2000-2019, primarily driven by arrhythmias. In primiparous women, the timing of diagnosis of cardiovascular disease is important for maternal and perinatal outcomes, including when diagnosed postpartum. This calls for awareness among all staff when planning pregnancy and monitoring women with cardiovascular disease throughout pregnancy and in the postpartum period.

Temporal trends, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil from 2000 to 2021

Cervical cancer, despite being preventable through primary and secondary prevention strategies, remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among women in Brazil. This study aimed to analyze the temporal, spatial, and space-time patterns of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil. An ecological study was conducted using temporal, spatial, and space-time analysis techniques, using death certificates with cervical cancer as the underlying cause or associated condition among females in Brazil from 2000 to 2021. Death certificate and population data were provided by the Department of Health Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), respectively. A total of 123,306 deaths associated with cervical cancer among women were registered during the study period. A rising trend in mortality was detected since 2014 onwards, after 14 years of decline. Particularly, an increase in mortality was observed among the younger age groups, and in the North and Northeast regions regardless of age. Heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of cervical cancer mortality was observed, with high mortality clusters around the country, but mostly concentrated in the North and Northeast regions. These findings suggest a need and an opportunity to develop efficient and effective health policies targeting those regions and groups of women at higher risk which in turn will allow for fast and significant reductions in cervical cancer mortality in Brazil.

Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to high fasting glucose in China, 1990-2021

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant tumour with poor prognosis and high mortality, and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is considered to be one of its important risk factors.

Methods

PC disease burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Annual percent change (APC), average APC (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were analysed using joinpoint linkpoint regression models to assess the trend of PC burden of disease between 1990 and 2021. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on PC burden, and data on PC mortality attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2032 were analysed on the basis of a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projection.

Results

The number of Pc deaths due to HFPG continue to rise in China from 1990 to 2021, with age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-year rates with increasing AAPC values of 1.12% (95% CI, 0.73-1.52) and 1.00% (95% CI, 0.63-1.37), respectively. Throughout the study, we found that the overall level of PC disease burden was significantly higher in men than that in women. In age-period-cohort analyses, the age effect of PC showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, the period effect showed an overall increasing trend during the study period, and the cohort effect showed an overall slow decreasing trend. In addition, the BAPC model predicted that ASMR is expected to decline significantly in both men and women from 2022 to 2032.

Conclusions

It was found that PC attributable to HFPG was generally on the rise in China from 1990 to 2021 and has been on the decline in recent years, and projections suggest that the country's future PC disease burden will continue to show a downward trend. Age and period of birth are the main factors affecting the disease burden, especially in men and older age groups. Early prevention, regular screening, and research into the pathogenesis of PC have, therefore, become particularly important.

Epidemiology of Sports-Related Tendon Ruptures Presenting to Emergency Departments in the United States

BACKGROUND

Participation in recreational and competitive sports can predispose people to musculoskeletal injuries. Chronic overuse with insufficient recovery, overloading, and direct contact can result in acute primary tendon ruptures. There is scarce literature regarding the epidemiology of sports-related acute primary tendon ruptures in the United States (US).

PURPOSE

To identify the incidence rate (IR) of sports-related acute primary tendon ruptures presenting to US emergency departments using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) database and describe the trends in the IR from 2001 to 2020.

STUDY DESIGN

Descriptive epidemiology study.

METHODS

The NEISS database was queried using injury case narratives; cases with a clear diagnosis of an acute primary tendon rupture were included in the final analysis. National estimates, estimated IRs (reported as per 1,000,000 person-years at risk), and temporal trends in the annual IR (reported as average annual percent change) of acute primary tendon ruptures were calculated using NEISS sample estimates and US Census Bureau population estimates.

RESULTS

An estimated total of 141,382 patients (95% confidence interval [CI], 107,478-175,286) presented to US emergency departments with a sports-related tendon rupture over the study period (IR, 22.9 person-years at risk [95% CI, 17.4-28.3]). The mean age was 37.7 years (95% CI, 37.0-38.5). Of all cases of a tendon rupture identified from 2001 to 2020, 60.1% were secondary to exercise/sports-related injury mechanisms. An Achilles tendon rupture was the most common injury, representing 55.9% of cases. Basketball was the most common sports-related injury mechanism, accounting for 36.6% of cases. The overall injury rate in male patients was 7.7 times that of female patients (IR ratio, 7.7 [95% CI, 4.4-13.5]; P < .05). The annual incidence of all sports-related tendon ruptures in the US increased significantly from 2001 to 2020 (average annual percent change, 1.9 [95% CI, 1.0-2.8]; P < .01).

CONCLUSION

Recreational/competitive sports participation accounted for a large proportion of acute primary tendon ruptures in the US during the study period.

Global burden of major depressive disorders attributable to intimate partner violence against women: Magnitude, temporal trends, and regional inequalities

AIMS

This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends, spatial heterogeneities, and potential improvements in the burden of major depressive disorders (MDD) attributable to intimate partner violence (IPV) against women across 21 global burden of disease (GBD) regions, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We evaluated the burden of MDD attributable to IPV against women, as measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100,000 people across 21 GBD regions and 204 GBD countries and territories, using data from the 2019 GBD Study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the DALY age-standardized rates (ASRs) was used to reflect trends over time. LOESS and quantile regression were used to model the relationship between the five GBD sociodemographic index (SDI) categories and DALY ASRs. Frontier analysis determined the minimum achievable DALY ASR associated with developmental status, as measured by the SDI.

RESULTS

The overall AAPC in age-standardized DALY rates for MDD attributable to IPV declined globally between 1990 and 2019. Despite the overall global decline (AAPC -0.08 [95 % UI -0.2, 0.03]), certain GBD regions, particularly high-income North America and Central Latin America, have experienced increases in DALY ASRs. The relationship between SDI and MDD burden showed a U-shaped variability, with low-SDI regions consistently exhibiting higher and stable DALY rates. Frontier analysis revealed that several countries, regardless of their SDI, have substantial gaps between observed and potentially achievable DALY rates, indicating areas for targeted intervention to reduce the burden of MDD due to IPV.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in MDD due to IPV was observed globally from 1990 to 2019, highlighting the substantial potential for improvement in various countries. Protective measures should be customized to suit the unique cultural contexts, developmental statuses, and regional disparities of each country.

[Temporal trend of the global prevalence rate of tension-type headache in children and adolescents in 1990-2021]

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prevalence of tension-type headache (TTH) in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years globally in 1990-2021, and to provide a basis for the prevention and treatment of TTH.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study data, the age-standardized prevalence distribution of TTH and its changing trend were analyzed among the children and adolescents aged 0-19 years, with different sexes, age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and countries/territories.

RESULTS

The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of TTH in children and adolescents aged 0-19 globally in 2021 was 17 339.89/100 000, which was increased by 1.73% since 1990. The ASPR in females was slightly higher than that in males (1990: 17 707.65/100 000 vs 16 403.78/100 000; 2021: 17 946.29/100 000 vs 16 763.09/100 000). The ASPR in adolescence was significantly higher than that in school-aged and preschool periods (1990: 27 672.04/100 000 vs 10 134.16/100 000; 2021: 28 239.04/100 000 vs 10 059.39/100 000). Regions with high SDI exhibited a higher ASPR than the other regions, with significant differences in prevalence rates across different countries. From 1990 to 2021, there was a slight increase in global ASPR, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.06%. Females experienced a smaller increase than males based on AAPC (0.04% vs 0.07%). There was reduction in ASPR in preschool and school-aged groups, with an AAPC of -0.02%, while there was a significant increase in ASPR in adolescence, with an AAPC of 0.07%. ASPR decreased in regions with low-middle and low levels of SDI, with an AAPC of -0.02% and -0.04%, respectively, while it increased in regions with middle SDI, with an AAPC of 0.24%.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a consistent increase in the ASPR of TTH in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years globally, with significant differences across sexes, age groups, SDI regions and countries/territories.

Global obesity epidemic and rising incidence of early-onset cancers

Background

Incidence of early-onset cancers at multiple organ sites has increased worldwide in recent decades. We investigated whether such increasing trends could be explained by trends in obesity.

Methods

We obtained incidence data for 21 common cancers among 25-49-year-olds during 2000-2012 in 42 countries from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. Nine cancers we examined have been classified as obesity-related by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence came from the Non-communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. Using country-level data, we examined whether changes in the prevalence of overweight and obesity combined were correlated with changes in cancer incidence, after accounting for various time lags (0-15 years) between exposure and cancer diagnosis. To test the validity of our approach, we conducted negative control analyses (using non-obesity-related cancers as the outcome variable, and per-capita gross national income as the exposure variable), and sensitivity and supplemental analyses using alternative data streams or processing.

Results

We found increased incidence for six of nine obesity-related and seven of twelve non-obesity-related cancers in 25-49-year-olds. These increases were more predominant in Western countries (particularly Australia, the USA, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, and Lithuania). For four obesity-related cancers displaying increased incidence (colon, rectum, pancreas, kidney), changes in cancer incidence were positively correlated with changes in overweight and obesity prevalence. When accounting for a 15-year lag, the estimated correlation was 0.27 (95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.04, 0.53; P = 0.090) for colon cancer, 0.33 (95% CI = 0.02, 0.58; P = 0.036) for rectal cancer, 0.39 (95% CI = 0.08, 0.64; P = 0.018) for pancreatic cancer, and 0.22 (95% CI = -0.10, 0.50; P = 0.173) for kidney cancer. Similar correlations were found in the sensitivity and supplemental analyses. We did not find similar correlations with excess body weight for the non-obesity-related early-onset cancers, nor correlations with per-capita gross national income for any cancer types, in the negative control analyses.

Conclusions

Worldwide increases in early-onset colon, rectal, pancreatic, and kidney cancers may have been partly driven by increases in excess body weight. The increases in other early-onset cancers, however, were likely driven by other factors deserving of further investigation.

Burden of uterine cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and 15-year projection: a systematic analysis and comparison with global levels

OBJECTIVE

Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels.

METHODS

Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored.

RESULTS

In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p < 0.05), and ASMR and ASDR were significantly negatively correlated with SDI (p < 0.001). High BMI is a risk factor affecting the mortality rate and DALYs of UC in both China and globally, with the increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI being greater in China than globally.

CONCLUSION

The incidence and prevalence burden of UC among Chinese and global women have shown an increasing trend over the past 32 years, while the mortality and DALYs have decreased. The projected burden of UC in China is anticipated to continue rising at a higher rate than the global level over the next 15 years. Given the large population in China, the government needs to strengthen screening and prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of UC.

Temporal Trends in the Prevalence of Child Undernutrition in China From 2000 to 2019, With Projections of Prevalence in 2030: Cross-Sectional Analysis

BACKGROUND

Although the problem of malnutrition among children in China has greatly improved in recent years, there is a gap compared to developed countries, and there are differences between provinces. Research on long-term comprehensive trends in child growth failure (CGF) in China is needed for further improvement.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine trends in stunting, wasting, and underweight among children younger than 5 years in China from 2000 to 2019, and predict CGF till 2030.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the local burden of disease (LBD) database. Using Joinpoint Regression Software, we examined trends in CGF among children younger than 5 years in China from 2000 to 2019, and predicted the trends of prevalence in 2030, using the Holt-Winters model with trends but without seasonal components. The assessment was performed with Stata 17 (StataCorp). Data were analyzed from October 17, 2023, to November 22, 2023.

RESULTS

In 2019, the prevalences of stunting, wasting, and underweight decreased to 12%, 3%, and 4%, respectively (decreases of 36.9%, 25.0%, and 42.9%, respectively, compared with the values in 2000). The prevalence of CGF decreased rapidly from 2000 to 2010, and the downward trend slowed down after 2010. Most provinces had stagnated processes of trends after 2017. The age group with the highest stunting prevalence was children aged 1 to 4 years, and the highest prevalence of wasting and underweight was noted in early neonatal infants. From 2000 to 2019, the prevalence of CGF declined in all age groups of children. The largest relative decrease in stunting and underweight was noted in children aged 1 to 4 years, and the largest decrease in wasting was noted in early neonatal infants. The prevalences of stunting, wasting, and underweight in China are estimated to decrease to 11.4%, 3.2%, and 4.1%, respectively, by 2030. China has nationally met the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Targets for 2030 for stunting but not for wasting.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides data on the prevalence and trends of CGF among children younger than 5 years and reports declines in CGF. There remain areas with slow progress in China. Most units have achieved the goal for stunting prevalence but not wasting prevalence.

Trends in racial/ethnic and geographic disparities in substance use disorders mortality in the United States, 2000-2019

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Substance use disorders (SUD) are a major public health concern in the United States. This study examined racial/ethnic and state-level disparities in SUD mortality in the United States from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

Age-standardized mortality rates for SUD were obtained for 5 racial/ethnic groups (White respondents, Black respondents, Latino, Asian-Pacific Islander [API], American Indian/Alaska Native [AIAN]) by state and sex from 2000 to 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to model temporal trends overall and by demographic factors.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2019, the overall mortality rate increased from 8.0 to 28.8 deaths per 100,000 population across all groups. AIANs had the highest mortality in 2019 (57.8 per 100,000), followed by Black respondents, White respondents, Latinos, and APIs. Significant increases occurred across all racial/ethnic groups, with the greatest average annual percentage change (AAPC2000-2019) among White respondents (6.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.2%-7.3%), APIs (6.0%, 95% CI: 5.6%-6.2%), and AIANs (5.9%, 95% CI: 5.6%-6.2%). Mortality rates increased more rapidly for females than males among White respondents, AIANs, Black respondents, and Latinos. Substantial state-level variation emerged, with the highest mortality rates in 2019 seen in West Virginia, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Racial/ethnic and geographic disparities in SUD mortality have widened significantly from 2000 to 2019, highlighting priority areas for prevention efforts.

SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE

This study provides detailed insights into long-term trends in racial, ethnic, and geographic disparities in SUD mortality across the United States, informing targeted prevention and intervention strategies.

A Population-Based Analysis of the Cancer Incidence in Individuals under 50 in a Northern Italian Province: Focusing on Regional Disparities and Public Health Implications

International studies have shown an increase in cancer incidence among young adults, raising public concern. This study aims examines trends in the cancer incidence among individuals aged 15-49 years in a province of Northern Italy, covering diagnoses from 1996 to 2021, and compares the annual percentage change (APC) with national and international data. In males, the overall cancer incidence showed a modest increase between 1996 and 2013 (APC 1.6), followed by a decline in the subsequent years (APC -2.5). In females, there was a modest increase over the entire period (APC 1.0). The lung cancer incidence decreased in both sexes (APC -3.9 in males and APC -3.3 in females), while a decrease was observed for colorectal cancers in women (APC -2.4). Since 2015, the thyroid cancer incidence declined significantly in females (APC -10.2), while an increase was noted in males (APC 2.5). The testicular cancer incidence rose in males (APC 1.5), and the melanoma incidence increased in both sexes (APC 3.4 in males and APC 3.9 in females). The breast cancer incidence remained stable (APC 0.3). These results underline the importance of promoting healthy lifestyles even among younger generations to address emerging cancer trends and support cancer prevention efforts.

Stage IC grade 1 endometrioid adenocarcinoma of the ovary: assessment of post-operative chemotherapy de-escalation

OBJECTIVE

Given limited real-world practice data evaluating the National Comprehensive Cancer Network clinical practice guidelines for possible post-operative chemotherapy omission as a treatment option for patients with stage IC grade 1 endometrioid ovarian carcinoma, this population-based study examined the association between post-operative chemotherapy and overall survival in this tumor group.

METHODS

The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program was retrospectively queried. The study population was 1207 patients with stage IC grade 1-3 endometrioid ovarian carcinoma who received primary cancer-directed surgery from 2007 to 2020. Overall survival was assessed with multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model.

RESULTS

The median age was 52, 54, and 55 years for grade 1, 2, and 3 groups, respectively (p=0.02). Grade 1 and 2 tumors were more common than grade 3 tumors (n=508 (42.1%), n=493 (40.8%), and n=206 (17.1%), respectively). Chemotherapy use rate for grade 1 tumors was lower compared with grade 2-3 tumors (67.9%, 76.5%, and 78.6%, respectively, p<0.001). When nodal evaluation was performed for grade 1 tumors, among patients who did not receive post-operative chemotherapy and among those who did, 5-year overall survival rate exceeded 90% (93.3% and 96.0%, respectively), with statistically non-significant hazard estimates (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.54, 95% CI 0.63 to 3.73). In contrast, post-operative chemotherapy omission for patients who did not undergo nodal evaluation was associated with decreased overall survival (5-year rates 82.3% vs 96.0%, aHR 5.41, 95% CI 1.95 to 15.06). Results were similar for node-evaluated grade 2 tumors (5-year overall survival rates, 94.6% and 94.4% for node-evaluated post-operative chemotherapy omission and administration, respectively), but not in grade 3 tumors.

CONCLUSION

The results of this population-based study may partially support the current clinical practice guidelines for post-operative chemotherapy omission as a possible option for patients with stage IC grade 1 endometrioid adenocarcinoma of the ovary for those who had lymph node evaluation. Observed data were also supportive for node-evaluated grade 2 tumors, warranting further evaluation.

CBTRUS Statistical Report: Primary Brain and Other Central Nervous System Tumors Diagnosed in the United States in 2017-2021

The Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS), in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Cancer Institute, is the largest population-based registry focused exclusively on primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors in the United States (US) and represents the entire US population. This report contains the most up-to-date population-based data on primary brain tumors available and supersedes all previous reports in terms of completeness and accuracy. All rates are age-adjusted using the 2000 US standard population and presented per 100,000 population. Between 2017 and 2021, the average annual age-adjusted incidence rate (AAAIR) of all primary malignant and non-malignant brain and other CNS tumors was 25.34 per 100,000 population (malignant AAAIR=6.89 and non-malignant AAAIR=18.46). This overall rate was higher in females compared to males (28.77 versus 21.78 per 100,000) and non-Hispanic Black persons compared to persons who were non-Hispanic White (26.60 versus 25.72 per 100,000), non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native (23.48 per 100,000), non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (19.86 per 100,000), and Hispanic persons of all races (22.37 per 100,000). Gliomas accounted for 22.9% of all tumors. The most commonly occurring malignant brain and other CNS histopathology was glioblastoma (13.9% of all tumors and 51.5% of all malignant tumors), and the most common predominantly non-malignant histopathology was meningioma (41.7% of all tumors and 56.8% of all non-malignant tumors). Glioblastomas were more common in males, and meningiomas were more common in females. In children and adolescents (ages 0-19 years), the incidence rate of all primary brain and other CNS tumors was 6.02 per 100,000 population. There were 87,053 deaths attributed to malignant brain and other CNS tumors between 2017 and 2021. This represents an average annual mortality rate of 4.41 per 100,000 population and an average of 17,411 deaths per year. The five-year relative survival rate following diagnosis of a malignant brain or other CNS tumor was 35.7%. For a non-malignant brain or other CNS tumor the five-year relative survival rate was 92.0%.

Age at menarche by birth cohort: A pooled analysis of half a million women in Asia

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate changes in the age at menarche in Asian populations.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We included 548,830 women from six countries in Asia. The data were sourced from 20 cohorts participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium (ACC) and two additional cohort studies: Japan Multi-institutional Collaborative Cohorts (J-MICC), and Japan Nurse Health Study (JNHS) with data on age at menarche. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate changes in age at menarche by birth year and by country.

RESULTS

The study includes data from cohorts in six Asian countries namely, China, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Birth cohorts ranged from 1873 to 1995. The mean age of menarche was 14.0 years with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.4 years, ranged from 12.6 to 15.5 years. Over 100 years age at menarche showed an overall decrease in all six countries. China showed a mixed pattern of decrease, increase, and subsequent decrease from 1926 to 1960. Iran and Malaysia experienced a sharp decline between about 1985 and 1990, with APC values of -4.48 and -1.24, respectively, while Japan, South Korea, and Singapore exhibited a nearly linear decline since the 1980s, notably with an APC of -3.41 in Singapore from 1993 to 1995.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we observed a declining age at menarche, while the pace of the change differed by country. Additional long-term observation is needed to examine the contributing factors of differences in trend across Asian countries. The study could serve as a tool to strengthen global health campaigns.

Global health impacts of high BMI: A 30-Year analysis of trends and disparities across regions and Demographics

OBJECTIVE

This study explores the global disease burden associated with high Body Mass Index (BMI) from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021).

METHODS

We applied Joinpoint regression to assess trends in deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and employed ARIMA models to project future BMI-related burdens.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, global deaths linked to high BMI surged by 153.97%, rising from 1.46 million to 3.71 million. DALYs increased by 167.57%, with the highest rises in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Women, particularly those aged 75 and above, experienced the most significant burden, with a faster rate of increase in disease burden compared to men post-2000. Future projections indicate a continued rise in BMI-related health impacts, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The global disease burden attributable to high BMI is increasing rapidly, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. Targeted public health interventions, especially for women and the elderly, are crucial to addressing this growing health challenge.

Historical change in associations between perceived risk, disapproval, and use of cannabis among young adults ages 19-30, 2011-2022

BACKGROUND

The current study used U.S. young adult data to examine overall and age group-specific historical trends in (a) mean perceived risk and disapproval of cannabis use, and (b) risk/use and disapproval/use associations.

METHODS

Data were collected from 2011 to 2022 from 16,492 respondents aged 19-30 in the national Monitoring the Future panel study. Trends in mean risk and disapproval overall and by age group (19-22, 23-26, 27-30) were modeled. Models regressing any past 30-day cannabis use on risk and disapproval controlled for sex, race/ethnicity, college education, population density, state cannabis policy, region, and year. Age group differences and historical trends in regression estimates from year-specific models were examined.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2022, overall mean perceived risk decreased from 3.08 (just over moderate) to 2.50 (between slight and moderate); mean disapproval decreased from 2.21 (between disapprove and strongly disapprove) to 1.66 (between don't disapprove and disapprove). Higher risk and disapproval were independently associated with lower odds of past 30-day cannabis use overall (AORs 0.86 and 0.76, respectively); controlling for sociodemographics and state policy had virtually no impact on association strength. There were no significant age-related association differences. The risk/use association weakened from AOR 0.84 in 2011 to AOR 0.91 in 2022; the disapproval/use association remained stable (AORs 0.753 and 0.749).

CONCLUSIONS

Young adults now perceive cannabis as less risky and are less disapproving of using than they were a decade ago. Perceived risk has weakened as a cannabis use risk factor over time; disapproval has remained a stable risk factor.

Trends in prevalence, mortality, and risk factors of dementia among the oldest-old adults in the United States: the role of the obesity epidemic

The oldest-old population, those aged ≥ 80 years, is the fastest-growing group in the United States (US), grappling with an increasingly heavy burden of dementia. We aimed to dissect the trends in dementia prevalence, mortality, and risk factors, and predict future levels among this demographic. Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we examined the trends in dementia prevalence, mortality, and risk factors (with a particular focus on body mass index, BMI) for US oldest-old adults. Through decomposition analysis, we identified key population-level contributors to these trends. Predictive modeling was employed to estimate future prevalence and mortality levels over the next decade. Between 1990 and 2019, the number of dementia cases and deaths among the oldest-old in the US increased by approximately 1.37 million and 60,000 respectively. The population growth and aging were highlighted as the primary drivers of this increase. High BMI emerged as a growing risk factor. Females showed a disproportionately higher dementia burden, characterized by a unique risk factor profile, including BMI. Predictions for 2030 anticipate nearly 4 million dementia cases and 160,000 related deaths, with a marked increase in prevalence and mortality anticipated among those aged 80-89. The past 30 years have witnessed a notable rise in both the prevalence and mortality of dementia among the oldest-old in the US, accompanied by a significant shift in risk factors, with obesity taking a forefront position. Targeted age and sex-specific public health strategies that address obesity control are needed to mitigate the dementia burden effectively.

Burden of oral cancer and associated risk factors at national and state levels: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease in India, 1990-2021

BACKGROUND

Oral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer globally, posing a significant health concern, especially in India, where it accounts for one-third of the global cases. Despite high incidence and mortality rates, comprehensive national and regional data on risk factors and trends are scarce.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 report, focusing on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and prevalence rate (ASPR) of oral cancer in India from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast future trends from 2022 to 2031.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, India experienced a moderate increase in oral cancer mortality, with ASMR rising from 5.32 to 5.92, reflecting an annual percentage change (APC) of 11.18 %. ASDR increased from 152.94 to 163.61 (APC of 6.98 %), and ASPR showed a marked rise from 15.71 to 25.46 (APC of 62.06 %). The burden varied significantly across states. Gender disparities were observed, with males consistently exhibiting higher incidence and mortality rates. ARIMA forecasts projected an upward trend in oral cancer metrics from 2022 to 2031, with ASIR expected to reach 10.15 per 100,000 and ASPR 29.38 per 100,000 by 2031.

CONCLUSIONS

The study reveals a persistent and growing burden of oral cancer in India, highlighting the influence of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Targeted strategies to mitigate risk behaviors, improve early detection, and address disparities are urgently needed to reduce the disease's impact.

KRT in Brazil: A Retrospective Cohort Study Based on Analysis of the Brazilian Public Health System

Key Points

Background

Brazil has the largest public health system providing universal coverage for chronic dialysis. The objective was to describe the number, sociodemographic, and clinical characteristics of patients undergoing KRT by dialysis within the public health system in Brazil.

Methods

We carried out a retrospective cohort study analyzing the database from the Brazilian Public Health System, focusing on procedures related to KRT. The study encompassed both prevalent and incident patients who underwent KRT in Brazil between 2015 and 2023.

Results

We observed an increase in the number and prevalence rate of dialysis patients from 2015 to 2023. We also noticed an increase in the age at dialysis initiation and in the prevalence of mixed-race patients and a reduction in the proportion of those undergoing peritoneal dialysis and with arteriovenous fistula. We identified an upward trajectory in the values of single-pool Kt/V over the years, contrasting with a decline in hemoglobin levels. The overall estimated prevalence rate of dialysis patients increased from 654 per million population (pmp) to 792 pmp over the years. The survival rates of incident patients undergoing KRT at 12 and 96 months were 81% and 60%, respectively.

Conclusions

We reported an increase in the age at which dialysis began and a decline in the adoption of peritoneal dialysis over the years. Although there have been some improvements over the years resulting in better adequacy of hemodialysis as measured by Kt/V, controlling certain parameters, such as hemoglobin levels, has remained challenging.

Global trends in pharmacovigilance-related events: a 30-year analysis from the 2019 global burden of disease study

BACKGROUND

Establishing effective pharmacovigilance systems globally is challenging due to the need for comprehensive epidemiological data on pharmacovigilance-related events, particularly in countries at different stages of development.

AIM

This study aimed to determine magnitude and drivers of change in the global and regional burden of pharmacovigilance-related events from 1990 to 2019, analyzing variations between age groups and sex, providing data support for policymakers to adjust their pharmacovigilance policies.

METHOD

Pharmacovigilance-related events were defined as Adverse Effects of Medical Treatment (AEMT) and Drug Use Disorders (DUD) in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Time trend analysis utilized joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort model, and decomposition method. Disease burden was measured in incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

RESULTS

The global burden of pharmacovigilance-related events remained high, driven predominantly by population growth. Children and older adults were identified as particularly susceptible groups. Across various regions and periods of the socio-demographic index (SDI), the risk of death from AEMT showed a decreasing trend. In contrast, the incidence of AEMT and both the incidence and death rates from DUD showed a stable or worsening trend. Significant regional disparities in the burden of these diseases were noted between different SDI levels.

CONCLUSION

The study underscores the critical need for robust pharmacovigilance systems worldwide. The observed trends in the burden of pharmacovigilance-related events offer a clear direction for countries to refine and strengthen their pharmacovigilance policies and practices.

Cross-border surveillance of sheep and goat rabies in Brazil

Since Brazil has the largest territory in South America and borders 10 other countries, rabies control is strategic to prevent cross-border spread. However, prevention and control of rabies in small ruminants is neglected. The present study evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trends of rabies in small ruminants in Brazil between 2005 and 2023. Official data on rabies case notifications and the population density of goats and sheep from the Brazilian states were used. Descriptive epidemiology and temporal analyses of high-risk clusters and trends were conducted. Rabies cases were reported in all states, except for the Federal District, Roraima, Amapá, Amazonas, and Rondônia. In sheep, 174 cases were reported, with an emphasis on Paraná (25.29 %), being highest. There were 64 cases in goats, with a highlight on Bahia (37.50 %) and Maranhão (18.75 %). However, Espírito Santo presented the highest incidence risk (IR) for goats and sheep. The highest peaks in IR occurred in 2005, 2006 and 2013. A temporal trend of decreasing goat cases was observed in northeastern Brazil from 2005 to 2023. In sheep, the Northeast region showed a downward trend in rabies cases. Three high-risk clusters were identified: the primary cluster for goats occurred in 2006, and for sheep, between 2005 and 2013. Rabies in small ruminants occurs across all Brazilian regions, with high-risk areas in the Northeast, Southeast, and South, as well as a risk of cross-border transmission. These findings support animal health authorities in strengthening rabies control for small ruminants and reducing the risk of transboundary spread.

Sex-specific Difference for Small Cell Lung Cancer from Immunotherapy Advancement

BACKGROUND

The treatment of lung cancer has witnessed significant progress, leading to improved survival rates among patients. It is important to assess the individual contributions of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) to overall lung-cancer incidence and mortality trends based population, especially sex difference.

METHODS

We analyzed lung cancer mortality based on subtype, gender, and calendar year. The Joinpoint software was used to identify any changes in incidence and trends in mortality.

RESULTS

Incidence and incidence-based mortality declined from 2001 to 2019 both NSCLC and SCLC annually. The most significant decrease occurred between 2016 and 2019 with annual percent change of 5.71%. From 2012 to 2016, the incidence-based mortality of SCLC in women changed by 2.7% in tandem with incidence decreased 2.84%. Remarkably, the incidence-based mortality for women declined notably by 5.23% between 2016 and 2019, even as the incidence showed a less extent of decreasing (-2.59%). The survival rate for women was 15.2% in 2001, 19.3% in 2016, it had increased to 21.3% in 2018 but similar trends not in men. The survival curve showed the change in survival outcomes over time among men and women (median overall survival: 13 vs 23months) receiving immunotherapy for SCLC.

CONCLUSION

Population-level mortality from NSCLC and SCLC in the United States fell sharply from 2016 to 2019 as incidence deceased, and survival improved substantially. Our analysis suggests that approval for and use of immunotherapy may explain the mortality reduction observed during this period, with significant benefits especially for SCLC patient in women.

Infection and Sepsis Trends during United States' Delivery Hospitalizations from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVE

 This study aimed to evaluate trends, risk factors, and outcomes associated with infections and sepsis during delivery hospitalizations in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

 The 2000-2020 National Inpatient Sample was used for this repeated cross-sectional analysis. Delivery hospitalizations of patients aged 15 to 54 with and without infection and sepsis were identified. Common infection diagnoses during delivery hospitalizations analyzed included (i) pyelonephritis, (ii) pneumonia/influenza, (iii) endometritis, (iv) cholecystitis, (v) chorioamnionitis, and (vi) wound infection. Temporal trends in sepsis and infection during delivery hospitalizations were analyzed. The associations between sepsis and infection and common chronic health conditions including asthma, chronic hypertension, pregestational diabetes, and obesity were analyzed. The associations between clinical, demographic, and hospital characteristics, and infection and sepsis were determined with unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models with unadjusted odds ratio (OR) and adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals as measures of association.

RESULTS

 An estimated 80,158,622 delivery hospitalizations were identified and included in the analysis, of which 2,766,947 (3.5%) had an infection diagnosis and 32,614 had a sepsis diagnosis (4.1 per 10,000). The most common infection diagnosis was chorioamnionitis (2.7% of deliveries) followed by endometritis (0.4%), and wound infections (0.3%). Infection and sepsis were more common in the setting of chronic health conditions. Evaluating trends in individual infection diagnoses, endometritis and wound infection decreased over the study period both for patients with and without chronic conditions, while risk for pyelonephritis and pneumonia/influenza increased. Sepsis increased over the study period for deliveries with and without chronic condition diagnoses. Risks for adverse outcomes including mortality, severe maternal morbidity, the critical care composite, and acute renal failure were all significantly increased in the presence of sepsis and infection.

CONCLUSION

 Endometritis and wound infections decreased over the study period while risk for sepsis increased. Infection and sepsis were associated with chronic health conditions and accounted for a significant proportion of adverse obstetric outcomes including severe maternal morbidity.

KEY POINTS

· Sepsis increased over the study period for deliveries with and without chronic condition diagnoses.. · Endometritis and wound infection decreased over the study period.. · Infection and sepsis accounted for a significant proportion of adverse obstetric outcomes..

Global burden of childhood nutritional deficiencies, 1990-2019

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden, trends and health inequality of childhood nutritional deficiencies (CND) from 1990 to 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an epidemiological study.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the rates and numbers were used to evaluate the global burden of CND. Temporal trends in the burden of CND were examined using Joinpoint analysis and average annual percentage changes. To assess health inequality, the slope index was used.

RESULTS

In 2019, 52 million new cases of CND and 105,000 deaths related to CND were recorded. Additionally, 435 million prevalence cases and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were recorded in the same year. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of CND generally increased globally, except for the years 2010-2017; conversely, the prevalence, death and DALY rates exhibited decreasing trends over the study period. Half of the analysed regions and countries/territories demonstrated decreasing trends in the incidence, prevalence, death and DALY rates associated with CND. The incidence and prevalence of CND remained high in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) and low-SDI regions; however, they exhibited decreasing trends over the 30-year study period. The slope indexes showed that there were no significant changes in SDI-related inequality over 30 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite decreasing trends in the prevalence, death and DALY rates associated with CND over the three decades, the degree of inequality related to SDI in the burden of nutritional deficiencies has not shown a significant decline. In summary, CND remain a major public health burden in middle-SDI and low-SDI countries.

Trends in Reported Calcium and Magnesium Intake from Diet and Supplements by Demographic Factors: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2018

BACKGROUND

Calcium and magnesium are important micronutrients necessary for normal body functioning.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to approximate usual nutrient intakes and estimate proportion of adults meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) of calcium and magnesium from diet, and diet plus supplements (total intake). Trends in the proportion of adults meeting the EAR were estimated by sex, age, and race and ethnicity.

DESIGN

The study utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of the US civilian and noninstitutionalized population.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

The continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey survey data from 2003-2004 through 2017-2018 for dietary intake, and 2007-2008 through 2017-2018 for total intake were analyzed. The study sample included men and women (not lactating/pregnant) ages 19 years and older with 2 reliable 24-hour dietary recalls and energy intake >500 to <6,000 kcal/day (N = 35 037).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mean daily intake and trends of proportion of adults meeting/exceeding the EAR for calcium and magnesium were estimated.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

The National Cancer Institute's method was used to calculate daily intakes for calcium and magnesium by demographic subgroups. SAS SURVEYMEAN and SURVEYFREQ procedures were used to estimate means ± SE for continuous variables and frequencies and percentages for categorical variables, and 2-sample t test for P values. Trends were estimated with National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint trend analysis program.

RESULTS

Mean daily dietary calcium intake and proportions of adults meeting the EAR from both diet and supplements was lowest among women (859 mg [61.9%]), adults ages 71 years and older (865 mg [60.3%]) and non-Hispanic Black individuals (782 mg [48.6%]) compared with men, younger age groups, and other races and ethnicities. Magnesium intake reported from diet was lowest in adults ages 71 years and older (276 mg), whereas total magnesium intake and proportion of meeting the EAR from both diet and supplements was lowest in women (302 mg) and men (52%), respectively, adults ages 19 to 30 years (305 mg [48.5%]), and non-Hispanic Black individuals (274 mg [35.5%]). The trends in the proportion of women and non-Hispanic White adults meeting the EAR from total calcium intake decreased significantly (P < .05) by 2.9% and 2.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Women and adults ages 71 years and older had the lowest reported mean daily dietary calcium intake and proportion meeting the EAR for calcium from diet and supplements. Men and adults ages 19 to 30 years had the lowest proportion meeting the EAR for magnesium from diet and supplements with adults ages 19 to 30 years also having the lowest reported total magnesium intake from diet and supplements. Non-Hispanic Black individuals had the lowest proportion of meeting the EARs for calcium and magnesium from reported total intake. The trends in the proportion of women and non-Hispanic White individuals meeting the EARs for calcium through total intake decreased over time and remained stable in other subpopulations and for magnesium.