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Enríquez-de-Salamanca Á. Environmental and social impacts of carbon sequestration. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2024. [PMID: 38651985 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2024] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
Climate change requires major mitigation efforts, mainly emission reduction. Carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation are complementary mitigation strategies that can promote nature conservation and local development but may also have undesirable impacts. We reviewed 246 articles citing impacts, risks, or concerns from carbon projects, and 78 others related to this topic. Most of the impacts cited focus on biodiversity, especially in afforestation projects, and on social effects related to avoided deforestation projects. Concerns were raised about project effectiveness, the permanence of carbon stored, and leakage. Recommendations include accounting for uncertainty, assessing both mitigation and contribution to climate change, defining permanence, creating contingency plans, promoting local projects, proposing alternative livelihoods, ensuring a fair distribution of benefits, combining timber production and carbon sequestration, ensuring sustainable development and minimizing leakage. A holistic approach that combines carbon sequestration, nature conservation, and poverty alleviation must be applied. The potential occurrence of negative impacts does not invalidate carbon projects but makes it advisable to conduct proper environmental impact assessments, considering direct and indirect impacts, minimizing the negative effects while maximizing the positive ones, and weighing the trade-offs between them to guide decision-making. Public participation and transparency are essential. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-27. © 2024 SETAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Álvaro Enríquez-de-Salamanca
- Department of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, San Lorenzo de El Escorial, Spain
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2
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Schirpke U, Tasser E, Borsky S, Braun M, Eitzinger J, Gaube V, Getzner M, Glatzel S, Gschwantner T, Kirchner M, Leitinger G, Mehdi-Schulz B, Mitter H, Scheifinger H, Thaler S, Thom D, Thaler T. Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 345:118728. [PMID: 37536130 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/05/2023]
Abstract
Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uta Schirpke
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria; Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy.
| | - Erich Tasser
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Stefan Borsky
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010, Graz, Austria
| | - Martin Braun
- Forest Biodiversity Unit, Department of Forest Biodiversity & Nature Conservation, Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW), Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, A-1131, Vienna, Austria
| | - Josef Eitzinger
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (BOKU-Met), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Veronika Gaube
- Institute of Social Ecology (SEC), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Michael Getzner
- Institute of Spatial Planning, Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria
| | - Stephan Glatzel
- Department of Geography and Regional Research, Geoecology, University of Vienna, Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2, 1090, Vienna, Austria
| | - Thomas Gschwantner
- Department of Forest Inventory, Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW), Seckendorff-Gudent-Weg 8, A-1131, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mathias Kirchner
- Centre for Global Change and Sustainability (BOKU-gWN), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Dänenstraße 4, 1190, Vienna, Austria
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Bano Mehdi-Schulz
- Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (BOKU-HyWa), Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Muthgasse 18, 1190, Vienna, Austria
| | - Hermine Mitter
- Institute of Sustainable Economic Development (BOKU-INWE), Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Sabina Thaler
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (BOKU-Met), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-Von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany; Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA
| | - Thomas Thaler
- Institute of Landscape Planning, Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 65, 1180, Vienna, Austria; Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
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3
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Aszalós R, Thom D, Aakala T, Angelstam P, Brūmelis G, Gálhidy L, Gratzer G, Hlásny T, Katzensteiner K, Kovács B, Knoke T, Larrieu L, Motta R, Müller J, Ódor P, Roženbergar D, Paillet Y, Pitar D, Standovár T, Svoboda M, Szwagrzyk J, Toscani P, Keeton WS. Natural disturbance regimes as a guide for sustainable forest management in Europe. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2596. [PMID: 35340078 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2596] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2021] [Revised: 11/13/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
In Europe, forest management has controlled forest dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience to environmental stress as well as threatens biodiversity, leading to increasing forest susceptibility to an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative management systems, including natural dynamics silviculture (NDS). NDS aims to emulate natural disturbance dynamics at stand and landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations of forest structure and landscape patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) to assess convergence/divergence between natural disturbances and forest management effects. We extended the original CI concept based on disturbance size and frequency by adding the residual structure of canopy trees after a disturbance as a third dimension. We populated the model by compiling data on natural disturbance dynamics and management from 13 countries in Europe, covering four major forest types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, and pine-dominated forests). We found that natural disturbances are highly variable in size, frequency, and residual structure, but European forest management fails to encompass this complexity. Silviculture in Europe is skewed toward even-aged systems, used predominately (72.9% of management) across the countries assessed. The residual structure proved crucial in the comparison of natural disturbances and silvicultural systems. CI indicated the highest congruence between uneven-aged silvicultural systems and key natural disturbance attributes. Even so, uneven-aged practices emulated only a portion of the complexity associated with natural disturbance effects. The remaining silvicultural systems perform poorly in terms of retention compared to tree survivorship after natural disturbances. We suggest that NDS can enrich Europe's portfolio of management systems, for example where wood production is not the primary objective. NDS is especially relevant to forests managed for habitat quality, risk reduction, and a variety of ecosystem services. We suggest a holistic approach integrating NDS with more conventional practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Réka Aszalós
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Tuomas Aakala
- School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland
| | - Per Angelstam
- School for Forest Management, Faculty of Forest Sciences, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skinnskatteberg, Sweden
- Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Koppang, Norway
| | | | | | - Georg Gratzer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Klaus Katzensteiner
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Bence Kovács
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Thomas Knoke
- Institute of Forest Management, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Laurent Larrieu
- University of Toulouse, INRAE, UMR DYNAFOR, Castanet-Tolosan, France
- CNPF-CRPF Occitanie, Tarbes, France
| | - Renzo Motta
- Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Food Sciences (DISAFA), University of Turin, Grugliasco, Italy
| | - Jörg Müller
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Grafenau, Germany
| | - Péter Ódor
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Dušan Roženbergar
- Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Yoan Paillet
- University Grenoble - Alpes, INRAE, LESSEM, Saint-Martin-D'Hères, France
| | - Diana Pitar
- National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry "Marin Dracea", Voluntari, Romania
| | - Tibor Standovár
- Department of Plant Systematics, Ecology and Theoretical Biology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jerzy Szwagrzyk
- Department of Forest Biodiversity, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Krakow, Poland
| | - Philipp Toscani
- Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Economics, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - William S Keeton
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
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4
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Thom D, Rammer W, Laux P, Smiatek G, Kunstmann H, Seibold S, Seidl R. Will forest dynamics continue to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Northern Alps? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:3260-3274. [PMID: 35170829 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Observational evidence suggests that forests in the Northern Alps are changing at an increasing rate as a consequence of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether the acceleration of forest change will continue in the future, or whether downregulating feedbacks will eventually decouple forest dynamics from climate change. Here we studied future forest dynamics at Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany by means of a process-based forest landscape model, simulating an ensemble of 22 climate projections until the end of the 21st century. Our objectives were (i) to assess whether the observed acceleration of forest dynamics will continue in the future, (ii) to analyze how uncertainty in future climate translates to variation in future forest disturbance, structure, and composition, and (iii) to determine the main drivers of future forest dynamics. We found that forest dynamics continue to accelerate in the coming decades, with a trend towards denser, structurally more complex and more species rich forests. However, changes in forest structure leveled off in the second half of the 21st century regardless of climate scenario. In contrast, climate scenarios caused trajectories of tree species change to diverge in the second half of the 21st century, with stabilization under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios and accelerated loss of conifers under RCP 8.5. Disturbance projections were 3 to 20 times more variable than future climate, whereas projected future forest structure and composition varied considerably less than climate. Indirect effects of climate change via alterations of the disturbance regime had a stronger impact on future forest dynamics than direct effects. Our findings suggest that dampening feedbacks within forest dynamics will decelerate forest change in the second half of the 21st century. However, warming beyond the levels projected under RCP 4.5 might profoundly alter future forest disturbance and composition, challenging conservation efforts and ecosystem service supply.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
| | - Werner Rammer
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Patrick Laux
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpin, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Gerhard Smiatek
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpin, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Harald Kunstmann
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpin, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Sebastian Seibold
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
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5
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Jaime L, Batllori E, Ferretti M, Lloret F. Climatic and stand drivers of forest resistance to recent bark beetle disturbance in European coniferous forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2830-2841. [PMID: 35090075 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Revised: 01/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Bark beetle infestation is a major driver of tree mortality that may be critical for forest persistence under climate change and the forecasted increase of extreme heat and drought episodes. Under this context, the environmental position of host tree populations within the species' climatic niche (central vs. marginal populations) is expected to be a determinant in the dynamics of insect-host systems. Here, we analyzed the recent patterns of bark beetle disturbance and forest resistance across European coniferous forests during the 2010-2018 period. We obtained bark beetle attack and tree mortality data from successive continental-scale forest condition surveys on 130 plots including five host trees and five bark beetle species, and characterized the climatic niche of each species. Then, we analyzed the overall forest resistance and species-specific responses, in terms of bark beetle attack and induced tree mortality, in relation to the distance to the niche optimum of both host tree and beetle species, previous drought events, and plot characteristics. Regional patterns of recent disturbance revealed that forests in central, north, and east of Europe could be at risk under the attack of multivoltine bark beetle species. We found that overall forest resistance to beetle attack was determined by several driving factors, which varied among species responses. Particularly, the environmental position of the affected forest within the host and beetle species' climatic niche and plot characteristics mediated the influence of drought on the resistance to beetle attack. In turn, forest resistance to induced tree mortality was determined exclusively by the maximum intensity and duration of drought events. Our findings highlight the importance of disturbance interactions and suggest that the joint influence of drought events and bark beetle disturbance will threaten the persistence of European coniferous forests, even in those tree populations close to their species' climatic optimum.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luciana Jaime
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Enric Batllori
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Unitat de Botànica i Micologia, Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marco Ferretti
- Forest Resources and Management, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Francisco Lloret
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Unitat d'Ecologia, Departament de Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona (UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
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6
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Anderson‐Teixeira KJ, Herrmann V, Rollinson CR, Gonzalez B, Gonzalez‐Akre EB, Pederson N, Alexander MR, Allen CD, Alfaro‐Sánchez R, Awada T, Baltzer JL, Baker PJ, Birch JD, Bunyavejchewin S, Cherubini P, Davies SJ, Dow C, Helcoski R, Kašpar J, Lutz JA, Margolis EQ, Maxwell JT, McMahon SM, Piponiot C, Russo SE, Šamonil P, Sniderhan AE, Tepley AJ, Vašíčková I, Vlam M, Zuidema PA. Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:245-266. [PMID: 34653296 PMCID: PMC9298236 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Revised: 08/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristina J. Anderson‐Teixeira
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
- Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama
| | - Valentine Herrmann
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
| | | | - Bianca Gonzalez
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
| | - Erika B. Gonzalez‐Akre
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
| | | | - M. Ross Alexander
- Midwest Dendro LLCNapervilleIllinoisUSA
- Present address:
Decision and Infrastructure SciencesArgonne National LaboratoryLamontIllinoisUSA
| | - Craig D. Allen
- Department of Geography & Environmental StudiesUniversity of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNew MexicoUSA
| | | | - Tala Awada
- School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska‐LincolnLincolnNebraskaUSA
| | | | - Patrick J. Baker
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesUniversity of MelbourneRichmondVIC.Australia
| | | | | | - Paolo Cherubini
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape ResearchBirmensdorfSwitzerland
- Faculty of ForestryUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Stuart J. Davies
- Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama
| | - Cameron Dow
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
- Department of Forestry and Natural ResourcesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteIndianaUSA
| | - Ryan Helcoski
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
| | - Jakub Kašpar
- Department of Forest EcologyThe Silva Tarouca Research Institute for Landscape and Ornamental GardeningBrnoCzech Republic
| | - James A. Lutz
- S. J. & Jessie E. Quinney College of Natural Resources and the Ecology CenterUtah State UniversityLoganUtahUSA
| | - Ellis Q. Margolis
- Fort Collins Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveyNew Mexico Landscapes Field StationLos AlamosNew MexicoUSA
| | | | - Sean M. McMahon
- Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama
- Smithsonian Environmental Research CenterEdgewaterMarylandUSA
| | - Camille Piponiot
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
- Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama
- CIRADMontpellierFrance
| | - Sabrina E. Russo
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of NebraskaLincolnUSA
- Center for Plant Science InnovationUniversity of NebraskaLincolnUSA
| | - Pavel Šamonil
- Department of Forest EcologyThe Silva Tarouca Research Institute for Landscape and Ornamental GardeningBrnoCzech Republic
| | | | - Alan J. Tepley
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
- Canadian Forest ServiceNorthern Forestry CentreEdmontonAlbertaCanada
| | - Ivana Vašíčková
- Department of Forest EcologyThe Silva Tarouca Research Institute for Landscape and Ornamental GardeningBrnoCzech Republic
| | - Mart Vlam
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management GroupWageningenThe Netherlands
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7
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Turner MG, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Hoecker TJ, Rammer W, Ratajczak Z, Westerling AL, Seidl R. The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Winslow D. Hansen
- Earth Institute Columbia University New York City New York 10025 USA
| | - Tyler J. Hoecker
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Werner Rammer
- School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506‐4901 USA
| | - A. Leroy Westerling
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute and School of Engineering University of California‐Merced Merced California 95343 USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park 83471 Berchtesgaden Germany
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8
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Thrippleton T, Hülsmann L, Cailleret M, Bugmann H. An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling. Sci Rep 2021; 11:19845. [PMID: 34615895 PMCID: PMC8494886 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-98880-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 09/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple species. We analysed empirical MAs for a suite of European tree species within a consistent DVM framework under present and future climates in two climatically different study areas in Switzerland and evaluated their performance using empirical data from old-growth forests across Europe. DVM projections under present climate showed substantial variations when using alternative empirical MAs for the same species. Under climate change, DVM projections showed partly contrasting mortality responses for the same species. These opposing patterns were associated with MA structures (i.e. explanatory variables) and occurred independent of species ecological characteristics. When comparing simulated forest structure with data from old-growth forests, we found frequent overestimations of basal area, which can lead to flawed projections of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. While using empirical MAs in DVMs may appear promising, our results emphasize the importance of selecting them cautiously. We therefore synthesize our insights into a guideline for the appropriate use of empirical MAs in DVM applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy Thrippleton
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland.
- Forest Resources and Management, Sustainable Forestry, Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | - Lisa Hülsmann
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, Faculty of Biology and Pre-Clinical Medicine, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, 93053, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Maxime Cailleret
- INRAE, Aix-Marseille University, UMR RECOVER, 3275 Route de Cézanne, CS 40061, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 5, France
| | - Harald Bugmann
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
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9
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Rammer W, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Ratajczak Z, Westerling AL, Turner MG, Seidl R. Widespread regeneration failure in forests of Greater Yellowstone under scenarios of future climate and fire. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:4339-4351. [PMID: 34213047 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Revised: 05/18/2021] [Accepted: 05/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Changing climate and disturbance regimes are increasingly challenging the resilience of forest ecosystems around the globe. A powerful indicator for the loss of resilience is regeneration failure, that is, the inability of the prevailing tree species to regenerate after disturbance. Regeneration failure can result from the interplay among disturbance changes (e.g., larger and more frequent fires), altered climate conditions (e.g., increased drought), and functional traits (e.g., method of seed dispersal). This complexity makes projections of regeneration failure challenging. Here we applied a novel simulation approach assimilating data-driven fire projections with vegetation responses from process modeling by means of deep neural networks. We (i) quantified the future probability of regeneration failure; (ii) identified spatial hotspots of regeneration failure; and (iii) assessed how current forest types differ in their ability to regenerate under future climate and fire. We focused on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (2.9 × 106 ha of forest) in the Rocky Mountains of the USA, which has experienced large wildfires in the past and is expected to undergo drastic changes in climate and fire in the future. We simulated four climate scenarios until 2100 at a fine spatial grain (100 m). Both wildfire activity and unstocked forest area increased substantially throughout the 21st century in all simulated scenarios. By 2100, between 28% and 59% of the forested area failed to regenerate, indicating considerable loss of resilience. Areas disproportionally at risk occurred where fires are not constrained by topography and in valleys aligned with predominant winds. High-elevation forest types not adapted to fire (i.e., Picea engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa as well as non-serotinous Pinus contorta var. latifolia forests) were especially vulnerable to regeneration failure. We conclude that changing climate and fire could exceed the resilience of forests in a substantial portion of Greater Yellowstone, with profound implications for carbon, biodiversity, and recreation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Werner Rammer
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Kristin H Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
| | | | - Monica G Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
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10
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Pöpperl F, Seidl R. Effects of stand edges on the structure, functioning, and diversity of a temperate mountain forest landscape. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Franziska Pöpperl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest‐ and Soil Sciences University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna Peter Jordan Straße 82 Wien 1190 Austria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group Technical University of Munich Hans‐Carl‐von‐Carlowitz‐Platz 2 Freising 85354 Germany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest‐ and Soil Sciences University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna Peter Jordan Straße 82 Wien 1190 Austria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group Technical University of Munich Hans‐Carl‐von‐Carlowitz‐Platz 2 Freising 85354 Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park Doktorberg 6 Berchtesgaden 83471 Germany
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11
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Thom D, Seidl R. Accelerating Mountain Forest Dynamics in the Alps. Ecosystems 2021; 25:603-617. [PMID: 35509678 PMCID: PMC9016046 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-021-00674-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2021] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Climate change alters forest development pathways, with consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity. As the rate of warming increases, ecosystem change is expected to accelerate. However, ecosystem dynamics can have many causes unrelated to climate (for example, disturbance and stand development legacies). The compound effects of multiple drivers remain largely unclear. Here, we assessed forest dynamics over 28 years at Berchtesgaden National Park (BGNP), Germany, quantifying the spatiotemporal patterns and unraveling the drivers of forest change. We analyzed high-density forest inventory data, consisting of three consecutive censuses of 3759 permanent sample plots (132,866 tree records in total). We used semi-variograms to analyze spatial patterns of change, and boosted regression trees to quantify the effect of 30 covariates on changes in nine indicators of forest structure and composition. Over the 28 years investigated, the forests of BGNP were becoming denser, structurally more complex, and more species rich. Changes in forest structure were more pronounced and spatially correlated on the landscape than changes in tree species composition. Change rates of all indicators increased over time, signifying an acceleration of forest dynamics since the 1980s. Legacies and climate were the most important drivers of change, but had diverging impacts. Although forest change accelerated with increasing temperature, high legacy levels typical for late development stages dampened it. We here provide evidence for accelerating forest dynamics in mountain forests of the Alps, with potentially far-reaching consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. We highlight that unmanaged forest development toward old-growth conditions could counteract climate-mediated acceleration of forest change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, Vermont 05405 USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Doktorberg 6, 83471 Berchtesgaden, Germany
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12
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Huber N, Bugmann H, Cailleret M, Bircher N, Lafond V. Stand-scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02313. [PMID: 33630399 PMCID: PMC8243936 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Revised: 10/08/2020] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The increasing impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems have triggered multiple model-based impact assessments for the future, which typically focused either on a small number of stand-scale case studies or on large scale analyses (i.e., continental to global). Therefore, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the local impacts over large areas (i.e., regions to countries), which is particularly problematic for forest management. We provide a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of the climate change sensitivity of managed Swiss forests (~10,000 km2 ), which cover a wide range of environmental conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to project the development of typical forest stands derived from a stratification of the Third National Forest Inventory until the end of the 22nd century. Two types of simulations were conducted: one limited to using the extant local species, the other enabling immigration of potentially more climate-adapted species. Moreover, to assess the robustness of our projections, we quantified and decomposed the uncertainty in model projections resulting from the following sources: (1) climate change scenarios, (2) local site conditions, and (3) the dynamic vegetation model itself (i.e., represented by a set of model versions), an aspect hitherto rarely taken into account. The simulations showed substantial changes in basal area and species composition, with dissimilar sensitivity to climate change across and within elevation zones. Higher-elevation stands generally profited from increased temperature, but soil conditions strongly modulated this response. Low-elevation stands were increasingly subject to drought, with strong negative impacts on forest growth. Furthermore, current stand structure had a strong effect on the simulated response. The admixture of drought-tolerant species was found advisable across all elevations to mitigate future adverse climate-induced effects. The largest uncertainty in model projections was associated with climate change scenarios. Uncertainty induced by the model version was generally largest where overall simulated climate change impacts were small, thus corroborating the utility of the model for making projections into the future. Yet, the large influence of both site conditions and the model version on some of the projections indicates that uncertainty sources other than climate change scenarios need to be considered in climate change impact assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nica Huber
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
- Remote SensingSwiss Federal Research Institute WSLZürcherstrasse 111Birmensdorf8903Switzerland
| | - Harald Bugmann
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
| | - Maxime Cailleret
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
- INRAEUMR RECOVERAix‐Marseille University3275 route de CézanneAix‐en‐Provence cedex 5CS40061France
| | - Nicolas Bircher
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
| | - Valentine Lafond
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
- Department of Forest Resources ManagementFaculty of ForestryForest Sciences CentreUniversity of British Columbia2424 Main MallVancouverBritish ColumbiaV6T 1Z4Canada
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13
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Evaluation of P-Band SAR Tomography for Mapping Tropical Forest Vertical Backscatter and Tree Height. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13081485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Low-frequency tomographic synthetic aperture radar (TomoSAR) techniques provide an opportunity for quantifying the dynamics of dense tropical forest vertical structures. Here, we compare the performance of different TomoSAR processing, Back-projection (BP), Capon beamforming (CB), and MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC), and compensation techniques for estimating forest height (FH) and forest vertical profile from the backscattered echoes. The study also examines how polarimetric measurements in linear, compact, hybrid, and dual circular modes influence parameter estimation. The tomographic analysis was carried out using P-band data acquired over the Paracou study site in French Guiana, and the quantitative evaluation was performed using LiDAR-based canopy height measurements taken during the 2009 TropiSAR campaign. Our results show that the relative root mean squared error (RMSE) of height was less than 10%, with negligible systematic errors across the range, with Capon and MUSIC performing better for height estimates. Radiometric compensation, such as slope correction, does not improve tree height estimation. Further, we compare and analyze the impact of the compensation approach on forest vertical profiles and tomographic metrics and the integrated backscattered power. It is observed that radiometric compensation increases the backscatter values of the vertical profile with a slight shift in local maxima of the canopy layer for both the Capon and the MUSIC estimators. Our results suggest that applying the proper processing and compensation techniques on P-band TomoSAR observations from space will allow the monitoring of forest vertical structure and biomass dynamics.
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14
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Kalinitchenko VP, Glinushkin AP, Swidsinski AV, Minkina TM, Andreev AG, Mandzhieva SS, Sushkova SN, Makarenkov DA, Ilyina LP, Chernenko VV, Zamulina IV, Larin GS, Zavalin AA, Gudkov SV. Thermodynamic mathematical model of the Kastanozem complex and new principles of sustainable semiarid protective silviculture management. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 194:110605. [PMID: 33316230 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2020] [Revised: 10/23/2020] [Accepted: 12/05/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The Kastanozem complex in the dry steppe of southern Russia underlies an artificially-constructed forest strips. Deep ploughing to a depth of 45 cm was used to process the soil prior to planting. Between 20 and 40 cm depth, soil density was high, 1.57 t m-3. Soil hardness was also high, 440 psi. Soil aggregates greater than 5 cm in size were impermeable to tree roots. The content of such aggregates was high, comprising 35%. The number of tree roots with diameters greater than 0.5 cm that cross the soil profile was as low as 0.15 to 0.3 pcs cm-2. The soil matric potential signifying water availability was low in the vegetation period -0.9 MPa to a depth of 1.0 m. According to modelling experiments, the main salt components in the soil solution drive the transfer of soil organic matter (SOM) and heavy metals (HM). The composition of the soil solution determined by the calcium carbonate equilibrium (CCE) and the association and complexation of ions. ION-3 software was used to calculate the ion equilibrium in the soil solution. Macro-ions Cа2+, Mg2+, SO42-, and CO32- partly bonded as ion pairs. Oversaturation of the soil solution with CaCO3 was calculated according to the analytical content of macro-ion, which was high up to 1000 units, and its value decreased in response to ionic strength, activity, association, complexation, and thermodynamic equilibrium of macro-ions in the soil solution. Oversaturation calculated for Salic Solonetz and Gleyic Solonetz soil solutions was small considering the SOM content. Calculations indicate the profile and lateral loss of C from the soil to the vadose zone. The content of Pb in the soil solution was calculated sirca 75%-80%. The calculated coefficient of Pb2+ association was as high as 52.0. The probability of Pb passivation by SOM in the Kastanozem complex was significant. The probability of uncontrolled transfer and accumulation of HM in the soil and vadose zone was high. Biogeosystem Technique (BGT*) transcendental methodology, an innovative methodology created for stable geomorphological system formation to achieve sustainable agriculture and silviculture, was applied. The BGT* elements were: intra-soil milling of the 30-60 cm soil layer for geophysical conditioning; intra-soil continuously-discrete pulse watering for plants and trees to improve the hydrologic regime. The BGT* methodology reduced HM mobility, controlled biodegradation, enriched nutrient biogeochemical cycling, increased C content, increased soil productivity, and reversible carbon sequester in biological form.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valery P Kalinitchenko
- Institute of Fertility of Soils of South Russia, 346493, Krivoshlykova St., 2, Persianovka, Rostov Region, Russia; All-Russian Research Institute for Phytopathology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 143050, Institute St., 5, Big Vyazyomy, Moscow Region, Russia.
| | - Alexey P Glinushkin
- All-Russian Research Institute for Phytopathology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 143050, Institute St., 5, Big Vyazyomy, Moscow Region, Russia
| | | | - Tatiana M Minkina
- Southern Federal University, 344006, Bolshaya Sadovaya str., 105/42, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
| | - Andrey G Andreev
- Institute of Fertility of Soils of South Russia, 346493, Krivoshlykova St., 2, Persianovka, Rostov Region, Russia
| | - Saglara S Mandzhieva
- Southern Federal University, 344006, Bolshaya Sadovaya str., 105/42, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
| | - Svetlana N Sushkova
- Southern Federal University, 344006, Bolshaya Sadovaya str., 105/42, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
| | - Dmitry A Makarenkov
- Institute of Chemical Reagents and High Purity Chemical Substances of the National Research Centre "Kurchatov Institute", 107076, Bogorodsky Val St., 3, Moscow, Russia
| | - Lyudmila P Ilyina
- Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 344006, Chekhova Ave., 41, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
| | - Vladimir V Chernenko
- Institute of Fertility of Soils of South Russia, 346493, Krivoshlykova St., 2, Persianovka, Rostov Region, Russia
| | - Inna V Zamulina
- Southern Federal University, 344006, Bolshaya Sadovaya str., 105/42, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
| | - George S Larin
- Institute of Fertility of Soils of South Russia, 346493, Krivoshlykova St., 2, Persianovka, Rostov Region, Russia
| | - Alexey A Zavalin
- All-Russian Institute for Agrochemistry named after D.N. Pryanishnikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 127434, Pryanishnikova St., 31a, Moscow, Russia
| | - Sergey V Gudkov
- Prokhrov General Physics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 119991, Vavilova St., 38, Moscow, Russia
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15
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Sommerfeld A, Rammer W, Heurich M, Hilmers T, Müller J, Seidl R. Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe? THE JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2021; 109:737-749. [PMID: 33664526 PMCID: PMC7894307 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Bark beetle outbreaks have intensified in many forests around the globe in recent years. Yet, the legacy of these disturbances for future forest development remains unclear. Bark beetle disturbances are expected to increase further because of climate change. Consequently, feedbacks within the disturbance regime are of growing interest, for example, whether bark beetle outbreaks are amplifying future bark beetle activity (through the initiation of an even-aged cohort of trees) or dampening it (through increased structural and compositional diversity).We studied bark beetle-vegetation-climate interactions in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany), an area characterised by unprecedented bark beetle activity in the recent past. We simulated the effect of future bark beetle outbreaks on forest structure and composition and analysed how disturbance-mediated forest dynamics influence future bark beetle activity under different scenarios of climate change. We used process-based simulation modelling in combination with machine learning to disentangle the long-term interactions between vegetation, climate and bark beetles at the landscape scale.Disturbances by the European spruce bark beetle were strongly amplified by climate change, increasing between 59% and 221% compared to reference climate. Bark beetle outbreaks reduced the dominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) on the landscape, increasing compositional diversity. Disturbances decreased structural diversity within stands (α diversity) and increased structural diversity between stands (β diversity). Overall, disturbance-mediated changes in forest structure and composition dampened future disturbance activity (a reduction of up to -67%), but were not able to fully compensate for the amplifying effect of climate change. Synthesis. Our findings indicate that the recent disturbance episode at the Bavarian Forest National Park was caused by a convergence of highly susceptible forest structures with climatic conditions favourable for bark beetle outbreaks. While future climate is increasingly conducive to massive outbreaks, the emerging landscape structure is less and less likely to support them. This study improves our understanding of the long-term legacies of ongoing bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe. It indicates that increased diversity provides an important dampening feedback, and suggests that preventing disturbances or homogenizing post-disturbance forests could elevate the future susceptibility to large-scale bark beetle outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Sommerfeld
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU)ViennaAustria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU)ViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupSchool of Life SciencesTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Marco Heurich
- Bavarian Forest National ParkGrafenauGermany
- Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Wildlife ManagementUniversity of FreiburgFreiburgGermany
| | - Torben Hilmers
- Chair of Forest Growth and Yield ScienceSchool of Life Sciences WeihenstephanTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Jörg Müller
- Bavarian Forest National ParkGrafenauGermany
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical BiologyUniversity of WürzburgWürzburgGermany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU)ViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupSchool of Life SciencesTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
- Berchtesgaden National ParkBerchtesgadenGermany
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16
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Zhu K. Understanding forest dynamics by integrating age and environmental change. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2020; 228:1728-1733. [PMID: 31912504 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2019] [Accepted: 12/07/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
How much carbon a forest ecosystem can sequester is determined by both postdisturbance regrowth and environmentally modified growth. Disturbance causes sharp declines in the short term and is followed by regrowth in the long term. Environmental change may alter carbon accumulation through increasing CO2 , nitrogen deposition and climate change. Regrowth and modified growth occur simultaneously, yet they are usually studied separately and assessed using an additive approach. Alternatively, an interactive approach using hierarchical models can address their concurrent nature and evaluate their joint effects. Hierarchical models are informed by forest age data, which have recently become available at global scales. The age-based hierarchical framework provides a coherent and feasible way to integrate regrowth and modified growth in understanding forest dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Zhu
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA
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17
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Dobor L, Hlásny T, Zimová S. Contrasting vulnerability of monospecific and species-diverse forests to wind and bark beetle disturbance: The role of management. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:12233-12245. [PMID: 33209284 PMCID: PMC7663067 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 08/31/2020] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Wind and bark beetle disturbances have increased in recent decades, affecting Europe's coniferous forests with particular severity. Management fostering forest diversity and resilience is deemed to effectively mitigate disturbance impacts, yet its efficiency and interaction with other disturbance management measures remain unclear.We focused on Central Europe, which has become one of the hotspots of recent disturbance changes. We used the iLand ecosystem model to understand the interplay between species composition of the forest, forest disturbance dynamics affected by climate change, and disturbance management. The tested measures included (a) active transformation of tree species composition toward site-matching species; (b) intensive removal of windfelled trees, which can support the buildup of bark beetle populations; and (c) reduction of mature and vulnerable trees on the landscape via modified harvesting regimes.We found that management systems aiming to sustain the dominance of Norway spruce in the forest are failing under climate change, and none of the measures applied could mitigate the disturbance impacts. Conversely, management systems fostering forest diversity substantially reduced the level of disturbance. Significant disturbance reduction has been achieved even without salvaging and rotation length reduction, which is beneficial for ecosystem recovery, carbon, and biodiversity. Synthesis and applications: We conclude that climate change amplifies the contrast in vulnerability of monospecific and species-diverse forests to wind and bark beetle disturbance. Whereas forests dominated by Norway spruce are not likely to be sustained in Central Europe under climate change, different management strategies can be applied in species-diverse forests to reach the desired control over the disturbance dynamic. Our findings justify some unrealistic expectations about the options to control disturbance dynamics under climate change and highlight the importance of management that fosters forest diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood SciencesCzech University of Life Sciences PraguePragueCzech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood SciencesCzech University of Life Sciences PraguePragueCzech Republic
| | - Soňa Zimová
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood SciencesCzech University of Life Sciences PraguePragueCzech Republic
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18
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Long- and Short-Term Inorganic Nitrogen Runoff from a Karst Catchment in Austria. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11101112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Excess nitrogen (N) deposition and gaseous N emissions from industrial, domestic, and agricultural sources have led to increased nitrate leaching, the loss of biological diversity, and has affected carbon (C) sequestration in forest ecosystems. Nitrate leaching affects the purity of karst water resources, which contribute around 50% to Austria’s drinking water supply. Here we present an evaluation of the drivers of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) concentrations and fluxes from a karst catchment in the Austrian Alps (LTER Zöbelboden) from 27 years of records. In addition, a hydrological model was used together with climatic scenario data to predict expected future runoff dynamics. The study area was exposed to increasing N deposition during the 20th century (up to 30 to 35 kg N ha−1 y−1), which are still at levels of 25.5 ± 3.6 and 19.9 ± 4.2 kg N ha−1 y−1 in the spruce and the mixed deciduous forests, respectively. Albeit N deposition was close to or exceeded critical loads for several decades, 70–83% of the inorganic N retained in the catchment from 2000 to 2018, and NO3- concentrations in the runoff stayed <10 mg L−1 unless high-flow events occurred or forest stand-replacing disturbances. We identified tree growth as the main sink for inorganic N, which might together with lower runoff, increase retention of only weakly decreasing N deposition in the future. However, since recurring forest stand-replacement is predicted in the future as a result of a combination of climatically driven disturbance agents, pulses of elevated nitrate concentrations in the catchment runoff will likely add to groundwater pollution.
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19
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Thom D, Sommerfeld A, Sebald J, Hagge J, Müller J, Seidl R. Effects of disturbance patterns and deadwood on the microclimate in European beech forests. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2020; 291:108066. [PMID: 35646194 PMCID: PMC7612769 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
More frequent and severe disturbances increasingly open the forest canopy and initiate tree regeneration. Simultaneously, increasing weather extremes, such as drought and heat, are threatening species adapted to cool and moist climate. The magnitude of the microclimatic buffering capacity of forest canopies to mitigate hot and dry weather conditions and its disturbance-induced reduction remains poorly quantified. Also, the influence of disturbance legacies (e.g., deadwood) on forest microclimate is unresolved. In a unique manipulation experiment we investigated (i) the microclimatic buffering capacity of forest canopies in years with different climatic conditions; (ii) the impacts of spatial disturbance patterns on surface light and microclimate; and (iii) the effect of deadwood presence and type on microclimate. Treatments included two disturbance patterns (i.e., aggregated and distributed), four deadwood types (i.e., standing, downed, standing and downed, removed), and one untreated control (i.e., nine treatments in total), replicated at five sites dominated by European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in southeastern Germany. We measured forest floor light conditions and derived diurnal extremes and variation in temperature (T) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during four consecutive summer seasons (2016 - 2019). The buffering capacity of intact forest canopies was higher in warm and dry years. Surface light was significantly higher in spatially aggregated disturbance gaps compared to distributed disturbances of similar severity. An increase in surface light by 10 % relative to closed canopies elevated Tmax and VPDmax by 0.42°C and 0.04 kPa, respectively. Deadwood presence and type did not affect the forest microclimate significantly. Microclimatic buffering under forest canopies can dampen the effects of climate change. However, increasing canopy disturbances result in more light penetrating the canopy, reducing the microclimatic buffering capacity of forests. We conclude that forest management should foster microclimatic buffering in forests as one element of a multi-pronged strategy to counter climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
| | - Andreas Sommerfeld
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Julius Sebald
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Jonas Hagge
- Forest Nature Conservation, Faculty of Forest Sciences, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Büsgenweg 3, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Jörg Müller
- Ecological Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, University of Würzburg, Glashüttenstraße 5, 96181 Rauhenebrach, Germany
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Strasse 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Doktorberg 6, 83471 Berchtesgaden, Germany
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20
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Schwaab J, Davin EL, Bebi P, Duguay-Tetzlaff A, Waser LT, Haeni M, Meier R. Increasing the broad-leaved tree fraction in European forests mitigates hot temperature extremes. Sci Rep 2020; 10:14153. [PMID: 32843747 PMCID: PMC7447805 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71055-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2020] [Accepted: 08/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Forests influence climate through a myriad of chemical, physical and biological processes and are an essential lever in the efforts to counter climate change. The majority of studies investigating potential climate benefits from forests have focused on forest area changes, while changes to forest management, in particular those affecting species composition, have received much less attention. Using a statistical model based on remote sensing observations over Europe, we show that broad-leaved tree species locally reduce land surface temperatures in summer compared to needle-leaved species. The summer mean cooling effect related to an increase in broad-leaved tree fraction of 80% is relatively modest (~ 0.3-0.75 K), but is amplified during exceptionally warm periods. The reduction of daily maximum temperatures during the hottest days reaches up to 1.8 K in the Atlantic region and up to 1.5 K in Continental and Mediterranean regions. Hot temperature extremes adversely affect humans and ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent in a future climate. Thus, forest management strategies aiming to increase the fraction of broad-leaved species could help to reduce some of the adverse local impacts caused by hot temperature extremes. However, the overall benefits and trade-offs related to an increase in the broad-leaved tree fraction in European forests needs to be further investigated and assessed carefully when adapting forest management strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonas Schwaab
- ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland.
| | - Edouard L Davin
- ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland.
| | - Peter Bebi
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
| | - Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich-Airport, Switzerland
| | - Lars T Waser
- Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Matthias Haeni
- Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Ronny Meier
- ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland
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21
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Albrich K, Rammer W, Seidl R. Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:4013-4027. [PMID: 32301569 PMCID: PMC7317840 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2019] [Revised: 03/18/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2020] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina Albrich
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
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22
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McDowell NG, Allen CD, Anderson-Teixeira K, Aukema BH, Bond-Lamberty B, Chini L, Clark JS, Dietze M, Grossiord C, Hanbury-Brown A, Hurtt GC, Jackson RB, Johnson DJ, Kueppers L, Lichstein JW, Ogle K, Poulter B, Pugh TAM, Seidl R, Turner MG, Uriarte M, Walker AP, Xu C. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. Science 2020; 368:368/6494/eaaz9463. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz9463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 301] [Impact Index Per Article: 75.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Craig D. Allen
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA
| | - Kristina Anderson-Teixeira
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA
- Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Republic of Panama
| | - Brian H. Aukema
- Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Ben Bond-Lamberty
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Louise Chini
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - James S. Clark
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Michael Dietze
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Charlotte Grossiord
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Adam Hanbury-Brown
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - George C. Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Robert B. Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Daniel J. Johnson
- School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Lara Kueppers
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Division of Climate and Ecosystem Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | | | - Kiona Ogle
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Thomas A. M. Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, 1180 Vienna, Austria
- School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Maria Uriarte
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Anthony P. Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
| | - Chonggang Xu
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
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23
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Dirnböck T, Kraus D, Grote R, Klatt S, Kobler J, Schindlbacher A, Seidl R, Thom D, Kiese R. Substantial understory contribution to the C sink of a European temperate mountain forest landscape. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 2020; 35:483-499. [PMID: 32165789 PMCID: PMC7045765 DOI: 10.1007/s10980-019-00960-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2019] [Accepted: 12/10/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT The contribution of forest understory to the temperate forest carbon sink is not well known, increasing the uncertainty in C cycling feedbacks on global climate as estimated by Earth System Models. OBJECTIVES We aimed at quantifying the effect of woody and non-woody understory vegetation on net ecosystem production (NEP) for a forested area of 158 km2 in the European Alps. METHODS We simulated C dynamics for the period 2000-2014, characterized by above-average temperatures, windstorms and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak for the area, using the regional ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC. RESULTS In the entire study area, woody and non-woody understory vegetation caused between 16 and 37% higher regional NEP as compared to a bare soil scenario over the 15-year period. The mean annual contribution of the understory to NEP was in the same order of magnitude as the average annual European (EU-25) forest C sink. After wind and bark beetle disturbances, the understory effect was more pronounced, leading to an increase in NEP between 35 and 67% compared to simulations not taking into account these components. CONCLUSIONS Our findings strongly support the importance of processes related to the understory in the context of the climate change mitigation potential of temperate forest ecosystems. The expected increases in stand replacing disturbances due to climate change call for a better representation of understory vegetation dynamics and its effect on the ecosystem C balance in regional assessments and Earth System Models.
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Affiliation(s)
- T. Dirnböck
- Department for Ecosystem Research and Environmental Information Management, Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - D. Kraus
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - R. Grote
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - S. Klatt
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - J. Kobler
- Department for Ecosystem Research and Environmental Information Management, Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - A. Schindlbacher
- Department of Forest Ecology, Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW), Seckendorff-Gudent Weg 8, 1131 Vienna, Austria
| | - R. Seidl
- Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - D. Thom
- Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, 81 Carrigan Drive, Burlington, VT 05405 USA
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - R. Kiese
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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24
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Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Zimová S, Barka I, Seidl R. Spatial configuration matters when removing windfelled trees to manage bark beetle disturbances in Central European forest landscapes. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2020; 254:109792. [PMID: 31731030 PMCID: PMC7612771 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2019] [Revised: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 10/26/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Windfelled Norway spruce (Picea abies) trees play a crucial role in triggering large-scale outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus. Outbreak management therefore strives to remove windfelled trees to reduce the risk of outbreaks, a measure referred to as sanitation logging (SL). Although this practice has been traditionally applied, its efficiency in preventing outbreaks remains poorly understood. We used the landscape simulation model iLand to investigate the effects of different spatial configurations and intensities of SL of windfelled trees on the subsequent disturbance by bark beetles. We studied differences between SL applied evenly across the landscape, focused on the vicinity of roads (scenario of limited logging resources) and concentrated in a contiguous block (scenario of spatially diversified management objectives). We focused on a 16 050 ha forest landscape in Central Europe. The removal of >80% of all windfelled trees is required to substantially reduce bark beetle disturbances. Focusing SL on the vicinity of roads created a "fire break effect" on bark beetle spread, and was moderately efficient in reducing landscape-scale bark beetle disturbance. Block treatments substantially reduced outbreaks in treated areas. Leaving parts of the landscape untreated (e.g., conservation areas) had no significant amplifying effect on outbreaks in managed areas. Climate change increased bark beetle disturbances and reduced the effect of SL. Our results suggest that past outbreak management methods will not be sufficient to counteract climate-mediated increases in bark beetle disturbance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic.
| | - Werner Rammer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria
| | - Soňa Zimová
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92, Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria
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25
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Honkaniemi J, Rammer W, Seidl R. Norway spruce at the trailing edge: the effect of landscape configuration and composition on climate resilience. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 2020; 35:591-606. [PMID: 32214662 PMCID: PMC7081663 DOI: 10.1007/s10980-019-00964-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Accepted: 12/27/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Norway spruce (Picea abies) is one of the most widespread tree species in Europe's forests. Due to its high economic value it has been strongly favored by management, especially at the trailing edge of its natural distribution. However, disturbances from wind and bark beetles are increasingly impacting these forests, and their resilience under climate change has been called into question recently. OBJECTIVES We quantified the effects of landscape configuration and composition on (1) the risk from natural disturbances, and (2) on the overall resilience of Norway spruce to changing climate at the trailing edge. METHODS We simulated the dynamics of a 9183 ha forest landscape in Eastern Austria over 190 years. We used the simulation model iLand to experimentally study a wide range of landscape compositions and configurations under five different climate scenarios. RESULTS Natural disturbances increased considerably under all future climate scenarios. Dispersing Norway spruce throughout the landscape in mixed stands resulted in the highest levels of climate resilience. Reducing the percentage of Norway spruce on the landscape increased the resilience of the remaining Norway spruce trees, yet landscape configuration generally had a stronger effect on resilience than composition. CONCLUSIONS The resilience of Norway spruce at the trailing edge of its distribution is challenged by climate change, and considerable efforts are needed to sustain these ecosystems. While currently discussed adaptation measures focus largely on the stand level, we show that modifying landscape composition and configuration can be used to foster Norway spruce resilience while maintaining socio-economically relevant proportions of Norway spruce.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juha Honkaniemi
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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26
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A Century of Forest Regrowth and Snow Loss Alters the Cooling Effect of Historical Land Use in the Upper Midwest. Ecosystems 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-019-00456-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
AbstractAnthropogenic land use affects climate by altering the energy balance of the Earth’s surface. In temperate regions, cooling from increased albedo is a common result of historical land-use change. However, this albedo cooling effect is dependent mainly on the exposure of snow cover following forest canopy removal and may change over time due to simultaneous changes in both land cover and snow cover. In this paper, we combine modern remote sensing data and historical records, incorporating over 100 years of realized land use and climatic change into an empirical assessment of centennial-scale surface forcings in the Upper Midwestern USA. We show that, although increases in surface albedo cooled through strong negative shortwave forcings, those forcings were reduced over time by a combination of forest regrowth and snow-cover loss. Deforestation cooled strongly (− 5.3 Wm−2) and mainly in winter, while composition shift cooled less strongly (− 3.03 Wm−2) and mainly in summer. Combined, changes in albedo due to deforestation, shifts in species composition, and the return of historical forest cover resulted in − 2.81 Wm−2 of regional radiative cooling, 55% less than full deforestation. Forcings due to changing vegetation were further reduced by 0.32 Wm−2 of warming from a shortened snow-covered season and a thinning of seasonal snowpack. Our findings suggest that accounting for long-term changes in land cover and snow cover reduces the estimated cooling impact of deforestation, with implications for long-term land-use planning.
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27
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Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Zimová S, Barka I, Seidl R. Is salvage logging effectively dampening bark beetle outbreaks and preserving forest carbon stocks? J Appl Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czech Republic
| | - Werner Rammer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna Vienna Austria
| | - Soňa Zimová
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czech Republic
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre—Forest Research Institute Zvolen Zvolen Slovak Republic
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna Vienna Austria
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28
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Seidl R, Albrich K, Erb K, Formayer H, Leidinger D, Leitinger G, Tappeiner U, Tasser E, Rammer W. What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape? FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2019; 445:37-47. [PMID: 35645457 DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7850954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Karlheinz Erb
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Herbert Formayer
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - David Leidinger
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Ulrike Tappeiner
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestr. 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Erich Tasser
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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29
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Seidl R, Albrich K, Erb K, Formayer H, Leidinger D, Leitinger G, Tappeiner U, Tasser E, Rammer W. What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape? FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2019; 445:37-47. [PMID: 35645457 PMCID: PMC7612773 DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Corresponding Author. (R. Seidl)
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Karlheinz Erb
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Herbert Formayer
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - David Leidinger
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Ulrike Tappeiner
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestr. 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Erich Tasser
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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30
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Thom D, Golivets M, Edling L, Meigs GW, Gourevitch JD, Sonter LJ, Galford GL, Keeton WS. The climate sensitivity of carbon, timber, and species richness covaries with forest age in boreal-temperate North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:2446-2458. [PMID: 30985960 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2019] [Accepted: 03/11/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change threatens the provisioning of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB). The climate sensitivity of ESB may vary with forest development from young to old-growth conditions as structure and composition shift over time and space. This study addresses knowledge gaps hindering implementation of adaptive forest management strategies to sustain ESB. We focused on a number of ESB indicators to (a) analyze associations among carbon storage, timber growth rate, and species richness along a forest development gradient; (b) test the sensitivity of these associations to climatic changes; and (c) identify hotspots of climate sensitivity across the boreal-temperate forests of eastern North America. From pre-existing databases and literature, we compiled a unique dataset of 18,507 forest plots. We used a full Bayesian framework to quantify responses of nine ESB indicators. The Bayesian models were used to assess the sensitivity of these indicators and their associations to projected increases in temperature and precipitation. We found the strongest association among the investigated ESB indicators in old forests (>170 years). These forests simultaneously support high levels of carbon storage, timber growth, and species richness. Older forests also exhibit low climate sensitivity of associations among ESB indicators as compared to younger forests. While regions with a currently low combined ESB performance benefitted from climate change, regions with a high ESB performance were particularly vulnerable to climate change. In particular, climate sensitivity was highest east and southeast of the Great Lakes, signaling potential priority areas for adaptive management. Our findings suggest that strategies aimed at enhancing the representation of older forest conditions at landscape scales will help sustain ESB in a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
| | - Marina Golivets
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
| | - Laura Edling
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
| | - Garrett W Meigs
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
| | - Jesse D Gourevitch
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
| | - Laura J Sonter
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Gillian L Galford
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
| | - William S Keeton
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont
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31
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Rammer W, Seidl R. A scalable model of vegetation transitions using deep neural networks. Methods Ecol Evol 2019; 10:879-890. [PMID: 31244986 PMCID: PMC6582592 DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2018] [Accepted: 02/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
In times of rapid global change, anticipating vegetation changes and assessing their impacts is of key relevance to managers and policy makers. Yet, predicting vegetation dynamics often suffers from an inherent scale mismatch, with abundant data and process understanding being available at a fine spatial grain, but the relevance for decision-making is increasing with spatial extent.We present a novel approach for scaling vegetation dynamics (SVD), using deep learning to predict vegetation transitions. Vegetation is discretized into a large number (103-106) of potential states based on its structure, composition and functioning. Transition probabilities between states are estimated via a deep neural network (DNN) trained on observed or simulated vegetation transitions in combination with environmental variables. The impact of vegetation transitions on important ecological indicators is quantified by probabilistically linking attributes such as carbon storage and biodiversity to vegetation states.Here, we describe the SVD approach and present results of applying the framework in a meta-modelling context. We trained a DNN using simulations of a process-based forest landscape model for a complex mountain forest landscape under different climate scenarios. Subsequently, we evaluated the ability of SVD to project long-term vegetation dynamics and the resulting changes in forest carbon storage and biodiversity. SVD captured spatial (e.g. elevational gradients) and temporal (e.g. species succession) patterns of vegetation dynamics well, and responded realistically to changing environmental conditions. In addition, we tested the computational efficiency of the approach, highlighting the utility of SVD for country- to continental scale applications. SVD is the-to our knowledge-first vegetation model harnessing deep neural networks. The approach has high predictive accuracy and is able to generalize well beyond training data. SVD was designed to run on widely available input data (e.g. vegetation states defined from remote sensing, gridded global climate datasets) and exceeds the computational performance of currently available highly optimized landscape models by three to four orders of magnitude. We conclude that SVD is a promising approach for combining detailed process knowledge on fine-grained ecosystem processes with the increasingly available big ecological datasets for improved large-scale projections of vegetation dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Werner Rammer
- Department of Forest‐ and Soil SciencesInstitute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Department of Forest‐ and Soil SciencesInstitute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
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32
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Thrippleton T, Hülsmann L, Cailleret M, Bugmann H. Projecting Forest Dynamics Across Europe: Potentials and Pitfalls of Empirical Mortality Algorithms. Ecosystems 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-019-00397-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
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33
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Sandén H, Mayer M, Stark S, Sandén T, Nilsson LO, Jepsen JU, Wäli PR, Rewald B. Moth Outbreaks Reduce Decomposition in Subarctic Forest Soils. Ecosystems 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-019-00394-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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34
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Hansen WD, Turner MG. Origins of abrupt change? Postfire subalpine conifer regeneration declines nonlinearly with warming and drying. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Winslow D. Hansen
- Department of Integrative Biology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
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35
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Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Barka I, Trombik J, Pavlenda P, Šebeň V, Štepánek P, Seidl R. Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2018; 263:308-322. [PMID: 35633776 PMCID: PMC7612774 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.08.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Disturbances alter composition, structure, and functioning of forest ecosystems, and their legacies persist for decades to centuries. We investigated how temperate forest landscapes may recover their carbon (C) after severe wind and bark beetle disturbance, while being exposed to climate change. We used the forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to quantify (i) the recovery times of the total ecosystem C, (ii) the effect of climate change on C recovery, and (iii) the differential factors contributing to C recovery. We reconstructed a recent disturbance episode (2008-2016) based on Landsat satellite imagery, which affected 39% of the forest area in the 16,000 ha study landscape. We subsequently simulated forest recovery under a continuation of business-asusual management until 2100. Our results indicated that the recovery of the pre-disturbance C stocks (C payback time) was reached 17 years after the end of the disturbance episode. The C stocks of a theoretical undisturbed development trajectory were reached 30 years after the disturbance episode (C sequestration parity). Drier and warmer climates delayed simulated C recovery. Without the fertilizing effect of CO2, C payback times were delayed by 5-9 years, while C parity was not reached within the 21st century. Recovery was accelerated by an enhanced C uptake compared to undisturbed conditions (disturbance legacy sink effect) that persisted for 35 years after the disturbance episode. Future climate could have negative impacts on forest recovery and thus further amplify climate change through C loss from ecosystems, but the effect is strongly contingent on the magnitude and persistence of alleviating CO2 effects. Our modelling study highlights the need to consider both negative and positive effects of disturbance (i.e., C loss immediately after an event vs. enhanced C uptake of the recovering forest) in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of disturbance effects on the forest C cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
- Corresponding author. (T. Hlásny)
| | - Werner Rammer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Jiří Trombik
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Pavol Pavlenda
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Vladimír Šebeň
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Petr Štepánek
- Global Change Research Institute CAS, Belidla 986/4a, Brno 603 00, Czech Republic
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
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36
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Sommerfeld A, Senf C, Buma B, D'Amato AW, Després T, Díaz-Hormazábal I, Fraver S, Frelich LE, Gutiérrez ÁG, Hart SJ, Harvey BJ, He HS, Hlásny T, Holz A, Kitzberger T, Kulakowski D, Lindenmayer D, Mori AS, Müller J, Paritsis J, Perry GLW, Stephens SL, Svoboda M, Turner MG, Veblen TT, Seidl R. Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome. Nat Commun 2018; 9:4355. [PMID: 30341309 PMCID: PMC6195561 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06788-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2018] [Accepted: 09/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001-2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Sommerfeld
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria.
| | - Cornelius Senf
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany
| | - Brian Buma
- Dept. of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado, 1151 Arapahoe, Denver, CO, 80204, USA
| | - Anthony W D'Amato
- University of Vermont, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Aiken Center Room 204E, Burlington, VT, 05495, USA
| | - Tiphaine Després
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
- Institut de Recherche sur les Forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boulevard de l'Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada
| | - Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal
- Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, 8820808, Santiago, Chile
| | - Shawn Fraver
- University of Maine, School of Forest Resources, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, Maine, 04469, USA
| | - Lee E Frelich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Ave. N., St.Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Álvaro G Gutiérrez
- Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, 8820808, Santiago, Chile
| | - Sarah J Hart
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Hong S He
- School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Andrés Holz
- Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, 97201, USA
| | - Thomas Kitzberger
- INIBIOMA, CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Quintral 1250, Bariloche, 8400, Rio Negro, Argentina
| | - Dominik Kulakowski
- Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, MA, 01602, USA
| | - David Lindenmayer
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Akira S Mori
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan
| | - Jörg Müller
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Glashüttenstraße 5, 96181, Rauhenebrach, Germany
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481, Grafenau, Germany
| | - Juan Paritsis
- INIBIOMA, CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Quintral 1250, Bariloche, 8400, Rio Negro, Argentina
| | - George L W Perry
- School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
| | - Scott L Stephens
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Monica G Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Thomas T Veblen
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria
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37
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Foster AC, Shuman JK, Shugart HH, Negron J. Modeling the interactive effects of spruce beetle infestation and climate on subalpine vegetation. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Adrianna C. Foster
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 8800 Greenbelt Road Greenbelt Maryland 22071 USA
- Department of Environmental Sciences; University of Virginia; 376 Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Road Charlottesville Virginia 22904 USA
| | - Jacquelyn K. Shuman
- National Center for Atmospheric Research; 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder Colorado 80305 USA
| | - Herman H. Shugart
- Department of Environmental Sciences; University of Virginia; 376 Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Road Charlottesville Virginia 22904 USA
| | - Jose Negron
- USDA Forest Service; Rocky Mountain Research Station; 240 West Prospect Fort Collins Colorado 80526 USA
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38
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Albrich K, Rammer W, Thom D, Seidl R. Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2018; 28:1884-1896. [PMID: 30055058 PMCID: PMC6378588 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2017] [Revised: 04/11/2018] [Accepted: 07/11/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The ability of forests to continuously provide ecosystem services (ES) is threatened by rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes. Consequently, these changes present a considerable challenge for forest managers. Management of forests often focuses on maximizing the level of ES provisioning over extended time frames (i.e., rotation periods of more than 100 yr). However, temporal stability is also crucial for many ES, for example, in the context of a steady provisioning of resources to the industry, or the protection of human infrastructure against natural hazards. How temporal stability and the level of ES provisioning are related is of increasing interest, particularly since changing climate and disturbance regimes amplify temporal variability in forest ecosystems. In this simulation study, we investigated whether forest management can simultaneously achieve high levels and temporal stability of ES provisioning. Specifically, we quantified (1) trade-offs between ES stability and level of ES provisioning, and (2) the effect of tree species diversity on ES stability. Simulating a wide range of future climate scenarios and management strategies, we found a negative relationship between temporal stability and level of ES provisioning for timber production, carbon cycling, and site protection in a landscape in the Austrian Alps. Tree species diversity had a predominantly positive effect on ES stability. We conclude that attempts to maximize the level of ES provisioning may increase its temporal variability, and thus threaten the continuity of ES supply. Consequently, considerations of stability need to be more explicitly included in forest management planning under increasingly variable future conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina Albrich
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaPeter Jordan Straße 821190WienAustria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaPeter Jordan Straße 821190WienAustria
| | - Dominik Thom
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaPeter Jordan Straße 821190WienAustria
- Present address:
Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural ResourcesUniversity of Vermont308i Aiken CenterBurlingtonVermont05405USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaPeter Jordan Straße 821190WienAustria
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39
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Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests. Nat Commun 2018; 9:1626. [PMID: 29691396 PMCID: PMC5915461 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04096-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2017] [Accepted: 04/04/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species. Invasive alien pests can cause large-scale forest mortality and release carbon stored in forests. Here the authors show that climate change increases the potential range of alien pests and that their impact on the carbon cycle could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe’s forests.
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40
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Seidl R, Albrich K, Thom D, Rammer W. Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2018; 209:46-56. [PMID: 29275284 PMCID: PMC5873512 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.12.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2017] [Revised: 11/20/2017] [Accepted: 12/07/2017] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria.
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Dominik Thom
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
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