Tick‐borne disease risk in a forest food web

Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato prevalence in Ixodes scapularis from Canada: A thirty-year summary and meta-analysis (1990-2020)

Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bb) are a complex of bacteria genospecies that can cause Lyme disease (LD) in humans after the bite of an infected Ixodes spp. vector tick. In Canada, incidence of LD is increasing in part due to the rapid geographic expansion of Ixodes scapularis across the southcentral and eastern provinces. To better understand temporal and spatial (provincial) prevalence of Bb infection of I. scapularis and how tick surveillance is utilized in Canada to assess LD risk, a literature review was conducted. Tick surveillance studies published between January 1975 to November 2023, that measured the prevalence of Bb in I. scapularis via "passive surveillance" from the public citizenry or "active surveillance" by drag or flag sampling of host-seeking ticks in Canada were included for review. Meta-analyses were conducted via random effects modeling. Forty-seven articles, yielding 26 passive and 28 active surveillance studies, met inclusion criteria. Mean durations of collection for I. scapularis were 2.1 years in active surveillance studies (1999-2020) and 5.5 years by passive surveillance studies (1990-2020). Collectively, data were extracted on 99,528 I. scapularis nymphs and adults collected between 1990-2020 across nine provinces, including Newfoundland & Labrador (33 ticks) and Alberta (208 ticks). More studies were conducted in Ontario (36) than any other province. Across nine provinces, the prevalence of Bb infection in I. scapularis collected by passive surveillance was 14.6% with the highest prevalence in Nova Scotia at 20.5% (minimum studies >1). Among host-seeking I. scapularis collected via active surveillance, Bb infection prevalence was 10.5% in nymphs, 31.9% in adults, and 23.8% across both life stages. Host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs and adults from Ontario had the highest Bb prevalence at 13.6% and 34.8%, respectively. Between 2007-2019, Bb infection prevalence in host-seeking I. scapularis was positively associated over time (p<0.001) which is concurrent with a ∼25-fold increase in the number of annually reported LD cases in Canada over the same period. The prevalence of Bb-infection in I. scapularis has rapidly increased over three decades as reported by tick surveillance studies in Canada which coincides with increasing human incidence for LD. The wide-ranging distribution and variable prevalence of Bb-infected I. scapularis ticks across provinces demonstrates the growing need for long-term standardized tick surveillance to monitor the changing trends in I. scapularis populations and best define LD risk areas in Canada.

Refining Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) distribution models: a comparison of current methods to an established protocol

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) pose an enormous public health risk in eastern North America as the vector responsible for transmitting 7 human pathogens, including those causing the most common vector-borne disease in the United States, Lyme disease. Species distribution modeling is an increasingly popular method for predicting the potential distribution and subsequent risk of blacklegged ticks, however, the development of such models thus far is highly variable and would benefit from the use of standardized protocols. To identify where standardized protocols would most benefit current distribution models, we completed the "Overview, Data, Model, Assessment, and Prediction" (ODMAP) distribution modeling protocol for 21 publications reporting 22 blacklegged tick distribution models. We calculated an average adherence of 73.4% (SD ± 29%). Most prominently, we found that authors could better justify and connect their selection of variables and associated spatial scales to blacklegged tick ecology. In addition, the authors could provide clearer descriptions of model development, including checks for multicollinearity, spatial autocorrelation, and plausibility. Finally, authors could improve their reporting of variable effects to avoid undermining the models' utility in informing species-environment relationships. To enhance future model rigor and reproducibility, we recommend utilizing several resources including the ODMAP protocol, and suggest that journals make protocol compliance a publication prerequisite.

Accounting for missing ticks: Use (or lack thereof) of hierarchical models in tick ecology studies

Ixodid (hard) ticks play important ecosystem roles and have significant impacts on animal and human health via tick-borne diseases and physiological stress from parasitism. Tick occurrence, abundance, activity, and key life-history traits are highly influenced by host availability, weather, microclimate, and landscape features. As such, changes in the environment can have profound impacts on ticks, their hosts, and the spread of diseases. Researchers recognize that spatial and temporal factors influence activity and abundance and attempt to account for both by conducting replicate sampling bouts spread over the tick questing period. However, common field methods notoriously underestimate abundance, and it is unclear how (or if) tick studies model the confounding effects of factors influencing activity and abundance. This step is critical as unaccounted variance in detection can lead to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance. We performed a descriptive review to evaluate the extent to which studies account for the detection process while modeling tick data. We also categorized the types of analyses that are commonly used to model tick data. We used hierarchical models (HMs) that account for imperfect detection to analyze simulated and empirical tick data, demonstrating that inference is muddled when detection probability is not accounted for in the modeling process. Our review indicates that only 5 of 412 (1 %) papers explicitly accounted for imperfect detection while modeling ticks. By comparing HMs with the most common approaches used for modeling tick data (e.g., ANOVA), we show that population estimates are biased low for simulated and empirical data when using non-HMs, and that confounding occurs due to not explicitly modeling factors that influenced both detection and abundance. Our review and analysis of simulated and empirical data shows that it is important to account for our ability to detect ticks using field methods with imperfect detection. Not doing so leads to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance which could complicate our understanding of parasite-host relationships and the spread of tick-borne diseases. We highlight the resources available for learning HM approaches and applying them to analyzing tick data.

How do host population dynamics impact Lyme disease risk dynamics in theoretical models?

Lyme disease is the most common wildlife-to-human transmitted disease reported in North America. The study of this disease requires an understanding of the ecology of the complex communities of ticks and host species involved in harboring and transmitting this disease. Much of the ecology of this system is well understood, such as the life cycle of ticks, and how hosts are able to support tick populations and serve as disease reservoirs, but there is much to be explored about how the population dynamics of different host species and communities impact disease risk to humans. In this study, we construct a stage-structured, empirically-informed model with host dynamics to investigate how host population dynamics can affect disease risk to humans. The model describes a tick population and a simplified community of three host species, where primary nymph host populations are made to fluctuate on an annual basis, as commonly observed in host populations. We tested the model under different environmental conditions to examine the effect of environment on the interactions of host dynamics and disease risk. Results show that allowing for host dynamics in the model reduces mean nymphal infection prevalence and increases the maximum annual prevalence of nymphal infection and the density of infected nymphs. Effects of host dynamics on disease measures of nymphal infection prevalence were nonlinear and patterns in the effect of dynamics on amplitude in nymphal infection prevalence varied across environmental conditions. These results highlight the importance of further study of the effect of community dynamics on disease risk. This will involve the construction of further theoretical models and collection of robust field data to inform these models. With a more complete understanding of disease dynamics we can begin to better determine how to predict and manage disease risk using these models.

Opposing Patterns of Spatial Synchrony in Lyme Disease Incidence

Incidence of Lyme disease, a tick-borne illness prevalent in the US, is increasing in endemic regions and regions with no previous history of the disease, significantly impacting public health. We examined space-time patterns of Lyme disease incidence and the influence of ecological and social factors on spatial synchrony, i.e., correlated incidence fluctuations across US counties. Specifically, we addressed these questions: Does Lyme disease incidence exhibit spatial synchrony? If so, what geographic patterns does Lyme disease synchrony exhibit? Are geographic patterns of disease synchrony related to weather, land cover, access to health care, or tick-borne disease awareness? How do effects of these variables on Lyme disease synchrony differ geographically? We used network analysis and matrix regression to examine geographical patterns of Lyme disease synchrony and their potential mechanisms in 399 counties in the eastern and Midwestern US. We found two distinct regions of synchrony in Northeast and upper Midwest regions exhibiting opposing temporal fluctuations in incidence. Spatial patterns of Lyme disease synchrony were partly explained by land cover, weather, poverty, and awareness of tick-borne illness, with significant predictive variables changing regionally. However, the two regions may have become more synchronous over time, potentially leading to higher-amplitude nation-wide fluctuations in disease incidence.

High-resolution environmental and host-related factors impacting questing Ixodes scapularis at their northern range edge

The geographic range of tick populations has expanded in Canada due to climate warming and the associated poleward range shifts of their vertebrate hosts. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and snow, are known to directly affect tick abundance. Yet, biotic factors, such as the abundance and diversity of mammal hosts, may also alter tick abundance and consequent tick-borne disease risk. Here, we incorporated host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental data to evaluate the combined impact of abiotic and biotic factors on questing Ixodes scapularis abundance in Ontario and Quebec, Canada. High-resolution abiotic factors were derived from remote sensing satellites and meteorological towers, while biotic factors related to mammal hosts were derived from active surveillance data that we collected in the field. Generalized additive models were used to determine the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors on questing I. scapularis abundance. Combinations of abiotic and biotic factors were identified as important drivers of abundances of questing I. scapularis. Positive and negative linear relationships were found for questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and accumulated snow, but no effect was found for the relative abundance of white-footed mice. Positive relationships were also identified between questing I. scapularis abundance with monthly mean precipitation and mammal species richness. Therefore, future studies that assess I. scapularis should incorporate host surveillance data with high-resolution environmental factors to determine the key drivers impacting the abundance and geographic spread of tick populations and tick-borne pathogens.

Lyme Disease Models of Tick-Mouse Dynamics with Seasonal Variation in Births, Deaths, and Tick Feeding

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States impacting the Northeast and Midwest at the highest rates. Recently, it has become established in southeastern and south-central regions of Canada. In these regions, Lyme disease is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi, which is transmitted to humans by an infected Ixodes scapularis tick. Understanding the parasite-host interaction is critical as the white-footed mouse is one of the most competent reservoir for B. burgdorferi. The cycle of infection is driven by tick larvae feeding on infected mice that molt into infected nymphs and then transmit the disease to another susceptible host such as mice or humans. Lyme disease in humans is generally caused by the bite of an infected nymph. The main aim of this investigation is to study how diapause delays and demographic and seasonal variability in tick births, deaths, and feedings impact the infection dynamics of the tick-mouse cycle. We model tick-mouse dynamics with fixed diapause delays and more realistic Erlang distributed delays through delay and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). To account for demographic and seasonal variability, the ODEs are generalized to a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). The basic reproduction number and parameter sensitivity analysis are computed for the ODEs. The CTMC is used to investigate the probability of Lyme disease emergence when ticks and mice are introduced, a few of which are infected. The probability of disease emergence is highly dependent on the time and the infected species introduced. Infected mice introduced during the summer season result in the highest probability of disease emergence.

Resource selection by New York City deer reveals the effective interface between wildlife, zoonotic hazards and humans

Although the role of host movement in shaping infectious disease dynamics is widely acknowledged, methodological separation between animal movement and disease ecology has prevented researchers from leveraging empirical insights from movement data to advance landscape scale understanding of infectious disease risk. To address this knowledge gap, we examine how movement behaviour and resource utilization by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) determines blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) distribution, which depend on deer for dispersal in a highly fragmented New York City borough. Multi-scale hierarchical resource selection analysis and movement modelling provide insight into how deer's movements contribute to the risk landscape for human exposure to the Lyme disease vector-I. scapularis. We find deer select highly vegetated and accessible residential properties which support blacklegged tick survival. We conclude the distribution of tick-borne disease risk results from the individual resource selection by deer across spatial scales in response to habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbances.

Collaborative Modeling of the Tick-Borne Disease Social-Ecological System: A Conceptual Framework

Hard-bodied ticks have become a major concern in temperate regions because they transmit a variety of pathogens of medical significance. Ticks and pathogens interact with hosts in a complex social-ecological system (SES) that influences human exposure to tick-borne diseases (TBD). We argue that addressing the urgent public health threat posed by TBD requires an understanding of the integrated processes in the forest ecosystem that influence tick density and infection prevalence, transmission among ticks, animal hosts, and ultimately disease prevalence in humans. We argue that collaborative modeling of the human-tick SES is required to understand the system dynamics as well as move science toward policy action. Recent studies in human health have shown the importance of stakeholder participation in understanding the factors that contribute to human exposure to zoonotic diseases. We discuss how collaborative modeling can be applied to understand the impacts of forest management practices on ticks and TBD. We discuss the potential of collaborative modeling for encouraging participation of diverse stakeholders in discussing the implications of managing forest ticks in the absence of large-scale control policy.

Spatial variation in risk for tick-borne diseases in residential areas of Dutchess County, New York

Although human exposure to the ticks that transmit Lyme-disease bacteria is widely considered to occur around people's homes, most studies of variation in tick abundance and infection are undertaken outside residential areas. Consequently, the patterns of variation in risk of human exposure to tick-borne infections in these human-dominated landscapes are poorly understood. Here, we report the results of four years of sampling for tick abundance, tick infection, tick encounters, and tick-borne disease reports on residential properties nested within six neighborhoods in Dutchess County, New York, USA, an area of high incidence for Lyme and other tick-borne diseases. All properties were within neighborhoods that had been randomly assigned as placebo controls in The Tick Project; hence, none were treated to reduce tick abundance during the period of investigation, providing a unique dataset of natural variation within and between neighborhoods. We estimated the abundance of host-seeking blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) in three types of habitats on residential properties-forests, lawns, and gardens. In forest and lawn habitats, some neighborhoods had consistently higher tick abundance. Properties within neighborhoods also varied consistently between years, suggesting hot spots and cold spots occurring at a small (~ 1-hectare) spatial scale. Across neighborhoods, the abundance of nymphal ticks was explained by neither the amount of forest in that neighborhood, nor by the degree of forest fragmentation. The proportion of ticks infected with three common tick-borne pathogens did not differ significantly between neighborhoods. We observed no effect of tick abundance on human encounters with ticks, nor on either human or pet cases of tick-borne diseases. However, the number of encounters between ticks and outdoor pets in a neighborhood was negatively correlated with the abundance of questing ticks in that neighborhood. Our results reinforce the need to understand how human behavior and neglected ecological factors affect variation in human encounters with ticks and cases of tick-borne disease in residential settings.

Transfusion-transmitted Babesia spp.: a changing landscape of epidemiology, regulation, and risk mitigation

Babesia spp. are tick-borne parasites with a global distribution and diversity of vertebrate hosts. Over the next several decades, climate change is expected to impact humans, vectors, and vertebrate hosts and change the epidemiology of Babesia. Although humans are dead-end hosts for tick-transmitted Babesia, human-to-human transmission of Babesia spp. from transfusion of red blood cells and whole blood-derived platelet concentrates has been reported. In most patients, transfusion-transmitted Babesia (TTB) results in a moderate-to-severe illness. Currently, in North America, most cases of TTB have been described in the United States. TTB cases outside North America are rare, but case numbers may change over time with increased recognition of babesiosis and as the epidemiology of Babesia is impacted by climate change. Therefore, TTB is a concern of microbiologists working in blood operator settings, as well as in clinical settings where transfusion occurs. Microbiologists play an important role in deploying blood donor screening assays in Babesia endemic regions, identifying changing risks for Babesia in non-endemic areas, investigating recipients of blood products for TTB, and drafting TTB policies and guidelines. In this review, we provide an overview of the clinical presentation and epidemiology of TTB. We identify approaches and technologies to reduce the risk of collecting blood products from Babesia-infected donors and describe how investigations of TTB are undertaken. We also describe how microbiologists in Babesia non-endemic regions can assess for changing risks of TTB and decide when to focus on laboratory-test-based approaches or pathogen reduction to reduce TTB risk.

Capybara density and climatic factors as modulators of Ehrlichia prevalence in questing ticks in the Iberá wetlands, Argentina

We evaluated the presence of Ehrlichia spp. in unfed capybara ticks, Amblyomma dubitatum, and explored its association with capybaras density, ticks density and environmental variables. We observed that in the Iberá wetlands ecoregion A. dubitatum is infected by "Candidatus Ehrlichia hydrochoerus" and in a lesser extent with an Ehrlichia species closely related to Ehrlichia chaffeensis. The frequency of "Ca. Ehrlichia hydrochoerus" presence in A. dubitatum was not associated with vector abundance, but the probability of finding "Ca. Ehrlichia hydrochoerus"-infected ticks increased when the density of capybaras was low two months before. We hypothesize that when the density of capybaras decreases, A. dubitatum immature stages may seek out alternative hosts one of which could exhibit high realized reservoir competence for "Ca. Ehrlichia hydrochoerus", leading to an increased prevalence of this ehrlichiae in questing A. dubitatum. High minimum temperatures and high cumulative rainfall in the time period previous to tick collection (15 to 60 days) were positively correlated with the prevalence of "Ca. Ehrlichia hydrochoerus" infection in A. dubitatum. Our results suggest that a combination of factors (both biological and abiotic) could raise the risk of human exposure to tick-borne Ehrlichia in the Iberá wetlands ecoregion.

Summer collection of multiple southern species of ticks in a remote northern island in Japan and literature review of the distribution and avian hosts of ticks

Expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases is of increasing concern worldwide. To decrease the risk of ticks and tick-borne diseases to public health, understanding the mechanisms of their current distribution and future expansion is needed. Although tick distribution has been studied globally on continents and large islands that are inhabited by large mammals, less attention has been paid to remote islands. However, small islands are often important stopover sites for migratory birds that may contribute to long-distance dispersal of ticks. Therefore, islands would be a suitable system to rule out potential effects of mammals and to evaluate the contribution of birds to the expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases. We collected questing ticks by dragging cloths over vegetation on Tobishima Island, northern Japan, in summer 2021, and conducted a literature search of the distribution and avian hosts of hard tick. We found several southern species of ticks (Haemaphysalis hystricis, H. formosensis, H. cornigera, Amblyomma testudinarium, and Dermacentor bellulus) on the island. These species have rarely or never been reported from the mainland of Japan at similar latitudes or higher, where large mammals are found. They are known vectors of tick-borne diseases, such as severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome. The present study suggests that migratory birds may contribute to the expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases, and a remote island may function as a front line and/or a hub for their expansion. Evaluating tick fauna on remote islands used by migratory birds might be useful to monitor the expansion.

Tick Densities and Infection Prevalence on Coastal Islands in Massachusetts, USA: Establishing a Baseline

Tick-borne diseases and a tick-induced red meat allergy have become increasingly common in the northeastern USA and elsewhere. At the scale of local communities, few studies have documented tick densities or infection levels to characterize current conditions and provide a baseline for further monitoring. Using the town of Nantucket, MA, as a case study, we recorded tick densities by drag sampling along hiking trails in nature preserves on two islands. Nymphal blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) were most abundant at shadier sites and least common in grasslands and scrub oak thickets (Quercus ilicifolia). Lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum L.) were common on Tuckernuck Island and rare on Nantucket Island, while both tick species were more numerous in 2021 compared to 2020 and 2022. We tested for pathogens in blacklegged nymphs at five sites over two years. In 2020 and 2021, infection levels among the four Nantucket Island sites averaged 10% vs. 19% for Borrelia burgdorferi, 11% vs. 15% for Babesia microti, and 17% (both years) for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, while corresponding levels were significantly greater on Tuckernuck in 2021. Our site-specific, quantitative approach represents a practical example of how potential exposure to tick-borne diseases can be monitored on a local scale.

Re-framing deer herbivory as a natural disturbance regime with ecological and socioeconomic outcomes in the eastern United States

Natural disturbances are critical ecosystem processes, with both ecological and socioeconomic benefits and disadvantages. Large herbivores are natural disturbances that have removed plant biomass for millions of years, although herbivore influence likely has declined during the past thousands of years corresponding with extinctions and declines in distributions and abundances of most animal species. Nonetheless, the conventional view, particularly in eastern North America, is that herbivory by large wild herbivores is at unprecedented levels, resulting in unnatural damage to forests. Here, we propose consideration of large herbivores as a natural disturbance that also imparts many crucial ecological advantages, using white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the only wild large herbivore remaining throughout the eastern U.S., as our focal species. We examined evidence of detrimental effects of browsing on trees and forbs. We then considered that deer contribute to both fuel reduction and ecological restoration of herbaceous plants and historical open forests of savannas and woodlands by controlling tree and shrub densities, mimicking the consumer role of fire. Similarly to other disturbances, deer disturbance 'regimes' are uneven in severity across different ecosystems and landscapes, resulting in heterogeneity and diversity. In addition to biodiversity support and fuel reduction, socioeconomic benefits include >$20 billion dollars per year by 10 million hunters that support jobs and wildlife agencies, non-consumptive enjoyment of nature by 80 million people, cultural importance, and deer as ecological ambassadors, whereas costs include about $5 billion and up to 450 human deaths per year for motor vehicle accidents, along with crop damage and disease transmission. From a perspective of historical ecology rather than current baselines, deer impart a fundamental disturbance process with many ecological benefits and a range of socioeconomic effects.

Impacts Over Time of Neighborhood-Scale Interventions to Control Ticks and Tick-Borne Disease Incidence

Background: Controlling populations of ticks with biological or chemical acaricides is often advocated as a means of reducing human exposure to tick-borne diseases. Reducing tick abundance is expected to decrease immediate risk of tick encounters and disrupt pathogen transmission cycles, potentially reducing future exposure risk. Materials and Methods: We designed a placebo-controlled, randomized multiyear study to assess whether two methods of controlling ticks-tick control system (TCS) bait boxes and Met52 spray-reduced tick abundance, tick encounters with people and outdoor pets, and reported cases of tick-borne diseases. The study was conducted in 24 residential neighborhoods in a Lyme disease endemic zone in New York State. We tested the hypotheses that TCS bait boxes and Met52, alone or together, would be associated with increasing reductions in tick abundance, tick encounters, and cases of tick-borne disease over the 4-5 years of the study. Results: In neighborhoods with active TCS bait boxes, populations of blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) were not reduced over time in any of the three habitat types tested (forest, lawn, shrub/garden). There was no significant effect of Met52 on tick abundance overall, and there was no evidence for a compounding effect over time. Similarly, we observed no significant effect of either of the two tick control methods, used singly or together, on tick encounters or on reported cases of tick-borne diseases in humans overall, and there was no compounding effect over time. Thus, our hypothesis that effects of interventions would accumulate through time was not supported. Conclusions: The apparent inability of the selected tick control methods to reduce risk and incidence of tick-borne diseases after years of use requires further consideration.

Effects of Neighborhood-Scale Acaricidal Treatments on Infection Prevalence of Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes scapularis) with Three Zoonotic Pathogens

Acaricides are hypothesized to reduce human risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens by decreasing the abundance and/or infection prevalence of the ticks that serve as vectors for the pathogens. Acaricides targeted at reservoir hosts such as small mammals are expected to reduce infection prevalence in ticks by preventing their acquisition of zoonotic pathogens. By reducing tick abundance, reservoir-targeted or broadcast acaricides could reduce tick infection prevalence by interrupting transmission cycles between ticks and their hosts. Using an acaricide targeted at small-mammal hosts (TCS bait boxes) and one sprayed on low vegetation (Met52 fungal biocide), we tested the hypotheses that infection prevalence of blacklegged ticks with zoonotic pathogens would be more strongly diminished by TCS bait boxes, and that any effects of both acaricidal treatments would increase during the four years of deployment. We used a masked, placebo-controlled design in 24 residential neighborhoods in Dutchess County, New York. Analyzing prevalence of infection with Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti in 5380 nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks, we found little support for either hypothesis. TCS bait boxes did not reduce infection prevalence with any of the three pathogens compared to placebo controls. Met52 was associated with lower infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi compared to placebo controls but had no effect on prevalence of infection with the other two pathogens. Although significant effects of year on infection prevalence of all three pathogens were detected, hypothesized cumulative reductions in prevalence were observed only for B. burgdorferi. We conclude that reservoir-targeted and broadcast acaricides might not generally disrupt pathogen transmission between reservoir hosts and tick vectors or reduce human risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens.

Patterns and Ecological Mechanisms of Tick-Borne Disease Exposure Risk in Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine, United States

National parks are unique and significant vector-borne pathogen transmission settings, engaging over 300 million people in outdoor recreation per year. In this study, we integrated vector surveys and ecological habitat feature data in spatial models to characterize tick-borne disease exposure risk in Acadia National Park (ANP), Maine. To determine the broad-scale patterns of blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) densities in ANP, we conducted host-seeking tick collections at 114 sites across the park over two years. Using these tick survey data and geospatial landscape feature data (i.e., land cover, elevation, forest patch size, and aspect) we developed a random forest model of nymphal tick density. We found that host-seeking tick density varies significantly across the park and is particularly high in areas characterized by deciduous forest cover and relatively low elevation. To explore potential fine-scale ecological drivers of tick density spatial patterns, we quantified microclimate conditions, host activity, and vegetation characteristics at a subset of 19 sites. We identified significant differences in microclimate conditions but not host activity or vegetation metrics across broad-scale landscape feature classes. Mean temperature and mean humidity were correlated to nymphal densities and therefore may provide a mechanistic link between landscape features and blacklegged tick densities. Finally, we detected multiple tick-borne pathogens in both ticks and small mammals sampled in ANP, including Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum. Our findings demonstrate the value of using ecological metrics to estimate vector-borne disease exposure risk and provide insight into habitat characteristics that may drive tick-borne disease exposure risk.

Importance of Host Abundance and Microhabitat in Tick Abundance

To reduce the risk of zoonoses, it is necessary to understand the infection process, including the ecology of animals and vectors (i.e., the 'One Health' approach). In temperate climates, ticks are the major vectors of zoonoses, so factors determining their abundance, such as host mammal abundance and microhabitat conditions, should be clarified. Sika deer (Cervus nippon) are a major tick host and are rapidly expanding their distribution in Japan. We established 12 plots along a gradient of sika deer abundance in Tochigi Prefecture, Japan. We monitored the occurrence of mammal species with camera traps and sampled questing ticks on a monthly basis by flagging along three transects (center of a trail, forest edge, and forest interior) at each site from April to November 2018. The camera traps recorded 12 mammal species, predominantly sika deer. Five Haemaphysalis species and three Ixodes species were sampled. The numbers of ticks sampled were explained by the photographic frequency of sika deer, and partly by that of other mammal species, depending on tick species and their developmental stages. The numbers of sampled adult and nymphal ticks were the highest at the forest edge, where vegetation cover was greatest. Thus, vegetation management in tick habitats and the control of sika deer populations may reduce tick abundance.

An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD.

Can restoration of fire-dependent ecosystems reduce ticks and tick-borne disease prevalence in the eastern United States?

Over the past century, fire suppression has facilitated broad ecological changes in the composition, structure, and function of fire-dependent landscapes throughout the eastern US, which are in decline. These changes have likely contributed mechanistically to the enhancement of habitat conditions that favor pathogen-carrying tick species, key wildlife hosts of ticks, and interactions that have fostered pathogen transmission among them and to humans. While the long-running paradigm for limiting human exposure to tick-borne diseases focuses responsibility on individual prevention, the continued expansion of medically important tick populations, increased incidence of tick-borne disease in humans, and emergence of novel tick-borne diseases highlights the need for additional approaches to stem this public health challenge. Another approach that has the potential to be a cost-effective and widely applied but that remains largely overlooked is the use of prescribed fire to ecologically restore degraded landscapes that favor ticks and pathogen transmission. We examine the ecological role of fire and its effects on ticks within the eastern United States, especially examining the life cycles of forest-dwelling ticks, shifts in regional-scale fire use over the past century, and the concept that frequent fire may have helped moderate tick populations and pathogen transmission prior to the so-called fire-suppression era that has characterized the past century. We explore mechanisms of how fire and ecological restoration can reduce ticks, the potential for incorporating the mechanisms into the broader strategy for managing ticks, and the challenges, limitations, and research needs of prescribed burning for tick reduction.

No net effect of host density on tick-borne disease hazard due to opposing roles of vector amplification and pathogen dilution

To better understand vector‐borne disease dynamics, knowledge of the ecological interactions between animal hosts, vectors, and pathogens is needed. The effects of hosts on disease hazard depends on their role in driving vector abundance and their ability to transmit pathogens. Theoretically, a host that cannot transmit a pathogen could dilute pathogen prevalence but increase disease hazard if it increases vector population size. In the case of Lyme disease, caused by Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and vectored by Ixodid ticks, deer may have dual opposing effects on vectors and pathogen: deer drive tick population densities but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l. and could thus decrease or increase disease hazard. We aimed to test for the role of deer in shaping Lyme disease hazard by using a wide range of deer densities while taking transmission host abundance into account. We predicted that deer increase nymphal tick abundance while reducing pathogen prevalence. The resulting impact of deer on disease hazard will depend on the relative strengths of these opposing effects. We conducted a cross‐sectional survey across 24 woodlands in Scotland between 2017 and 2019, estimating host (deer, rodents) abundance, questing Ixodes ricinus nymph density, and B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence at each site. As predicted, deer density was positively associated with nymph density and negatively with nymphal infection prevalence. Overall, these two opposite effects canceled each other out: Lyme disease hazard did not vary with increasing deer density. This demonstrates that, across a wide range of deer and rodent densities, the role of deer in amplifying tick densities cancels their effect of reducing pathogen prevalence. We demonstrate how noncompetent host density has little effect on disease hazard even though they reduce pathogen prevalence, because of their role in increasing vector populations. These results have implications for informing disease mitigation strategies, especially through host management.

Small mammal responses to fire severity mediated by vegetation characteristics and species traits

The frequency of large, high‐severity “mega‐fires” has increased in recent decades, with numerous consequences for forest ecosystems. In particular, small mammal communities are vulnerable to post‐fire shifts in resource availability and play critical roles in forest ecosystems. Inconsistencies in previous observations of small mammal community responses to fire severity underscore the importance of examining mechanisms regulating the effects of fire severity on post‐fire recovery of small mammal communities. We compared small mammal abundance, diversity, and community structure among habitats that burned at different severities, and used vegetation characteristics and small mammal functional traits to predict community responses to fire severity three years after one mega‐fire in the Sierra Nevada, California. Using a model‐based fourth‐corner analysis, we examined how interactions between vegetation variables and small mammal traits associated with their resource use were associated with post‐fire small mammal community structure among fire severity categories. Small mammal abundance was similar across fire severity categories, but diversity decreased and community structure shifted as fire severity increased. Differences in small mammal communities were large only between unburned and high‐severity sites. Three highly correlated fire‐dependent vegetation variables affected by fire and the volume of soft coarse woody debris were associated with small mammal community structures. Furthermore, we found that interactions between vegetation variables and three small mammal traits (feeding guild, primary foraging mode, and primary nesting habit) predicted community structure across fire severity categories. We concluded that resource use was important in regulating small mammal recovery after the fire because vegetation provided required resources to small mammals as determined by their functional traits. Given the mechanistic nature of our analyses, these results may be applicable to other fire‐prone forest systems, although it will be important to conduct studies across large biogeographic regions and over long post‐fire time periods to assess generality.

Forest Diversity Reduces the Prevalence of Pathogens Transmitted by the Tick Ixodes ricinus

Tick-borne diseases represent the majority of vector-borne human diseases in Europe, with Ixodes ricinus, mostly present in forests, as the main vector. Studies show that vertebrate hosts diversification would decrease the prevalence of these pathogens. However, it is not well known whether habitat diversity can have similar impact on ticks and their infection rates. We measured the presence and abundance of different stages of I. ricinus, and the prevalence of associated pathogens in a large-scale forest experiment in which we manipulated tree diversity and moisture level. We showed that larval abundance was influenced by tree species identity, with larvae being more present in pine plots than in oak plots, while nymph abundance increased with canopy tree density. The proportion of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l.-infected nymphs decreased with increasing tree diversity. Our findings suggest that tree overstorey composition, structure and diversity, can affect tick abundance and pathogen prevalence. They support the idea that forest habitats may have “diluting” or “amplifying” effects on tick-borne diseases with direct relevance for human health.

Emergence of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in a Small Mammal Population in a Coastal Oak-Pine Forest, Maine, USA

In the United States, surveillance has been key to tracking spatiotemporal emergence of blacklegged ticks [Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida:Ixodidae)] and their pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt & Brenner (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), the agent of Lyme disease. On the Holt Research Forest in midcoastal Maine, collection of feeding ticks from live-trapped small mammal hosts allowed us to track the emergence and establishment of I. scapularis, 1989-2019. From 1989-1995, we collected only I. angustus Neumann (Ixodida: Ixodidae)(vole tick), Dermacentor variabilis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae) (American dog tick), and I. marxi Banks (Ixodida: Ixodidae) (squirrel tick) from seven species of small mammals. The most abundant tick host was the white-footed mouse [Peromyscus leucopus Rafinesque (Rodentia:Cricetidae)] followed by the red-backed vole (Myodes gapperi Vigors (Rodentia: Cricetidae)). Emergence of I. scapularis was signaled via the appearance of subadult I. scapularis in 1996. Emergence of B. burgdorferi was signaled through its appearance in I. scapularis feeding on mice in 2005. There was a substantial increase in I. scapularis prevalence (proportion of hosts parasitized) and burdens (ticks/host) on white-footed mice and red-backed voles in 2007. The ~11-yr time-to-establishment for I. scapularis was consistent with that seen in other studies. White-footed mice comprised 65.9% of all captures and hosted 94.1% of the total I. scapularis burden. The white-footed mouse population fluctuated interannually, but did not trend up as did I. scapularis prevalence and burdens. There were concurrent declines in I. angustus and D. variabilis. We discuss these results in the broader context of regional I. scapularis range expansion.

Recent Progress on Tick-Borne Animal Diseases of Veterinary and Public Health Significance in China

Ticks and tick-borne diseases pose a growing threat to human and animal health, which has brought great losses to livestock production. With the continuous expansion of human activities and the development of natural resources, there are more and more opportunities for humans to contract ticks and tick-borne pathogens. Therefore, research on ticks and tick-borne diseases is of great significance. This paper reviews recent progress on tick-borne bacterial diseases, viral diseases, and parasitic diseases in China, which provides a theoretical foundation for the research of tick-borne diseases.

Ecology and prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. in Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) ticks

Weather conditions greatly affect tick population densities and activity, on which depends the occurrence of tick-borne diseases (TBDs). During the spring months from 2017 to 2019, 1,357 specimens of Ixodes ricinus ticks were collected at 9 localities in the vicinity of Novi Sad (Serbia). The number of collected ticks varied considerably among the different sampling sites and years. Also, a statistically significant difference was found between months and observed number of ticks for each stadium. By statistical analysis of tick activity depending on microclimatic conditions, a positive and statistically significant relationship between temperature and the number of ticks for each life stage was established, but not for humidity. Dew had a statistically significant impact only on nymphs but not on adults. The infection rate of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. was the highest in March (46.5-51.2%) and the lowest in May (32.9-34.8%). The highest prevalence was detected in males and the lowest in nymphs. Since there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between tick number and prevalence, the ability to provide weather-based predictions of the seasonal patterns of current tick activity is important for the risk assessment of TBDs such as Lyme borreliosis.

Epidemiology of Hospitalized Patients with Babesiosis, United States, 2010-2016

Babesia spp. are tickborne parasites that cause the clinical infection babesiosis, which has an increasing incidence in the United States. We performed an analysis of hospitalizations in the United States during 2010-2016 in which babesiosis was listed as a diagnosis. We used the National Inpatient Sample database to characterize the epidemiology of Babesia-associated admissions, reflecting severe Babesia-related disease. Over a 7-year period, a total of 7,818 hospitalizations listed babesiosis as a primary or secondary admitting diagnosis. Hospitalizations were seasonal (71.2% occurred during June-August) and situated overwhelmingly in the Northeast and Midwest. The patients were predominantly male and of advanced age, which is consistent with the expected epidemiology. Despite a higher severity of illness in more than (58.5%), the mortality rate was low (1.6%). Comparison with state reporting data suggests that the number of hospitalized persons with babesiosis increased modestly during the observation period.

Three reasons why expanded use of natural enemy solutions may offer sustainable control of human infections

1. Many infectious pathogens spend a significant portion of their life cycles in the environment or in animal hosts, where ecological interactions with natural enemies may influence pathogen transmission to people. Yet, our understanding of natural enemy opportunities for human disease control is lacking, despite widespread uptake and success of natural enemy solutions for pest and parasite management in agriculture. 2. Here we explore three reasons why conserving, restoring, or augmenting specific natural enemies in the environment could offer a promising complement to conventional clinical strategies to fight environmentally mediated pathogens and parasites. (1) Natural enemies of human infections abound in nature, largely understudied and undiscovered. (2) Natural enemy solutions could provide ecological options for infectious disease control where conventional interventions are lacking. And, (3) Many natural enemy solutions could provide important co-benefits for conservation and human well-being. 3. We illustrate these three arguments with a broad set of examples whereby natural enemies of human infections have been used or proposed to curb human disease burden, with some clear successes. However, the evidence base for most proposed solutions is sparse, and many opportunities likely remain undiscovered, highlighting opportunities for future research.

An Exploratory Study on the Microbiome of Northern and Southern Populations of Ixodes scapularis Ticks Predicts Changes and Unique Bacterial Interactions

The black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis) is the primary vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease in North America. However, the prevalence of Lyme borreliosis is clustered around the Northern States of the United States of America. This study utilized a metagenomic sequencing approach to compare the microbial communities residing within Ix. scapularis populations from northern and southern geographic locations in the USA. Using a SparCC network construction model, we performed potential interactions between members of the microbial communities from Borrelia burgdorferi–infected tissues of unfed and blood-fed ticks. A significant difference in bacterial composition and diversity was found between northern and southern tick populations. The network analysis predicted a potential antagonistic interaction between endosymbiont Rickettsia buchneri and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. The network analysis, as expected, predicted significant positive and negative microbial interactions in ticks from these geographic regions, with the genus Rickettsia, Francisella, and Borreliella playing an essential role in the identified clusters. Interactions between Rickettsia buchneri and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato need more validation and understanding. Understanding the interplay between the microbiome and tick-borne pathogens within tick vectors may pave the way for new strategies to prevent tick-borne infections.

The bacterial biome of ticks and their wildlife hosts at the urban-wildland interface

Advances in sequencing technologies have revealed the complex and diverse microbial communities present in ticks (Ixodida). As obligate blood-feeding arthropods, ticks are responsible for a number of infectious diseases that can affect humans, livestock, domestic animals and wildlife. While cases of human tick-borne diseases continue to increase in the northern hemisphere, there has been relatively little recognition of zoonotic tick-borne pathogens in Australia. Over the past 5 years, studies using high-throughput sequencing technologies have shown that Australian ticks harbour unique and diverse bacterial communities. In the present study, free-ranging wildlife (n=203), representing ten mammal species, were sampled from urban and peri-urban areas in New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD) and Western Australia (WA). Bacterial metabarcoding targeting the 16S rRNA locus was used to characterize the microbiomes of three sample types collected from wildlife: blood, ticks and tissue samples. Further sequence information was obtained for selected taxa of interest. Six tick species were identified from wildlife: Amblyomma triguttatum, Ixodes antechini, Ixodes australiensis, Ixodes holocyclus, Ixodes tasmani and Ixodes trichosuri. Bacterial 16S rRNA metabarcoding was performed on 536 samples and 65 controls, generating over 100 million sequences. Alpha diversity was significantly different between the three sample types, with tissue samples displaying the highest alpha diversity (P<0.001). Proteobacteria was the most abundant taxon identified across all sample types (37.3 %). Beta diversity analysis and ordination revealed little overlap between the three sample types (P<0.001). Taxa of interest included Anaplasmataceae, Bartonella, Borrelia, Coxiellaceae, Francisella, Midichloria, Mycoplasma and Rickettsia. Anaplasmataceae bacteria were detected in 17.7% (95/536) of samples and included Anaplasma, Ehrlichia and Neoehrlichia species. In samples from NSW, 'Ca. Neoehrlichia australis', 'Ca. Neoehrlichia arcana', Neoehrlichia sp. and Ehrlichia sp. were identified. A putative novel Ehrlichia sp. was identified from WA and Anaplasma platys was identified from QLD. Nine rodent tissue samples were positive for a novel Borrelia sp. that formed a phylogenetically distinct clade separate from the Lyme Borrelia and relapsing fever groups. This novel clade included recently identified rodent-associated Borrelia genotypes, which were described from Spain and North America. Bartonella was identified in 12.9% (69/536) of samples. Over half of these positive samples were obtained from black rats (Rattus rattus), and the dominant bacterial species identified were Bartonella coopersplainsensis and Bartonella queenslandensis. The results from the present study show the value of using unbiased high-throughput sequencing applied to samples collected from wildlife. In addition to understanding the sylvatic cycle of known vector-associated pathogens, surveillance work is important to ensure preparedness for potential zoonotic spillover events.

Climate change and plant reproduction: trends and drivers of mast seeding change

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Beech tree masting explains the inter-annual variation in the fall and spring peaks of Ixodes ricinus ticks with different time lags

BACKGROUND

The tick Ixodes ricinus is an important vector of tick-borne diseases including Lyme borreliosis. In continental Europe, the nymphal stage of I. ricinus often has a bimodal phenology with a large spring peak and a smaller fall peak. There is consensus about the origin of the spring nymphal peak, but there are two alternative hypotheses for the fall nymphal peak. In the direct development hypothesis, larvae quest as nymphs in the fall of the same year that they obtained their larval blood meal. In the developmental diapause hypothesis, larvae overwinter in the engorged state and quest as nymphs one year after they obtained their larval blood meal. These two hypotheses make different predictions about the time lags that separate the larval blood meal and the density of questing nymphs (DON) in the spring and fall.

METHODS

Inter-annual variation in seed production (masting) by deciduous trees is a time-lagged index for the density of vertebrate hosts (e.g., rodents) which provide blood meals for larval ticks. We used a long-term data set on the masting of the European beech tree and a 15-year study on the DON at 4 different elevation sites in western Switzerland to differentiate between the two alternative hypotheses for the origin of the fall nymphal peak.

RESULTS

Questing I. ricinus nymphs had a bimodal phenology at the three lower elevation sites, but a unimodal phenology at the top elevation site. At the lower elevation sites, the DON in the fall was strongly correlated with the DON in the spring of the following year. The inter-annual variation in the densities of I. ricinus nymphs in the fall and spring was best explained by a 1-year versus a 2-year time lag with the beech tree masting index. Fall nymphs had higher fat content than spring nymphs indicating that they were younger. All these observations are consistent with the direct development hypothesis for the fall peak of I. ricinus nymphs at our study site. Our study provides new insight into the complex bimodal phenology of this important disease vector.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health officials in Europe should be aware that following a strong mast year, the DON will increase 1 year later in the fall and 2 years later in the spring. Studies of I. ricinus populations with a bimodal phenology should consider that the spring and fall peak in the same calendar year represent different generations of ticks.

Ticks, Human Babesiosis and Climate Change

The effects of current and future global warming on the distribution and activity of the primary ixodid vectors of human babesiosis (caused by Babesia divergens, B. venatorum and B. microti) are discussed. There is clear evidence that the distributions of both Ixodes ricinus, the vector in Europe, and I. scapularis in North America have been impacted by the changing climate, with increasing temperatures resulting in the northwards expansion of tick populations and the occurrence of I. ricinus at higher altitudes. Ixodes persulcatus, which replaces I. ricinus in Eurasia and temperate Asia, is presumed to be the babesiosis vector in China and Japan, but this tick species has not yet been confirmed as the vector of either human or animal babesiosis. There is no definite evidence, as yet, of global warming having an effect on the occurrence of human babesiosis, but models suggest that it is only a matter of time before cases occur further north than they do at present.

The role of host phenology for parasite transmission

Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite.

Life in the margins: host-parasite relationships in ecological edges

Transitional zones, such as edge habitat, are key landscapes for investigating biodiversity. "Soft edges" are permeable corridors that hosts can cross, while "hard edges" are impermeable borders that hosts cannot pass. Although pathogen transmission in the context of edges is vital to species conservation, drivers of host-parasite relationships in ecological edges remain poorly understood. Thus, we defined a framework for testing hypotheses of host-parasite interactions in hard and soft edges by (1) characterizing hard and soft edges from both the host and parasite perspectives, (2) predicting the types of parasites that would be successful in each type of edge, and (3) applying our framework to species invasion fronts as an example of host-parasite relationships in a soft edge. Generally, we posited that parasites in soft edges are more likely to be negatively affected by habitat fragmentation than their hosts because they occupy higher trophic levels but parasite transmission would benefit from increased host connectivity. Parasites along hard edges, however, are at higher risk of local extinction due to host population perturbations with limited opportunity for parasite recolonization. We then used these characteristics to predict functional traits that would lead to parasite success along soft and hard edges. Finally, we applied our framework to invasive species fronts to highlight predictions regarding host connectivity and parasite traits in soft edges. We anticipate that our work will promote a more complete discussion of habitat connectivity using a common framework and stimulate empirical research into host-parasite relationships within ecological edges and transitional zones.

The ecology of zoonotic parasites in the Carnivora

The order Carnivora includes over 300 species that vary many orders of magnitude in size and inhabit all major biomes, from tropical rainforests to polar seas. The high diversity of carnivore parasites represents a source of potential emerging diseases of humans. Zoonotic risk from this group may be driven in part by exceptionally high functional diversity of host species in behavioral, physiological, and ecological traits. We review global macroecological patterns of zoonotic parasites within carnivores, and explore the traits of species that serve as hosts of zoonotic parasites. We synthesize theoretical and empirical research and suggest future work on the roles of carnivores as biotic multipliers, regulators, and sentinels of zoonotic disease as timely research frontiers.

Dilution effects in disease ecology

For decades, people have reduced the transmission of pathogens by adding low‐quality hosts to managed environments like agricultural fields. More recently, there has been interest in whether similar ‘dilution effects’ occur in natural disease systems, and whether these effects are eroded as diversity declines. For some pathogens of plants, humans and other animals, the highest‐quality hosts persist when diversity is lost, so that high‐quality hosts dominate low‐diversity communities, resulting in greater pathogen transmission. Meta‐analyses reveal that these natural dilution effects are common. However, studying them remains challenging due to limitations on the ability of researchers to manipulate many disease systems experimentally, difficulties of acquiring data on host quality and confusion about what should and should not be considered a dilution effect. Because dilution effects are widely used in managed disease systems and have been documented in a variety of natural disease systems, their existence should not be considered controversial. Important questions remain about how frequently they occur and under what conditions to expect them. There is also ongoing confusion about their relationships to both pathogen spillover and general biogeographical correlations between diversity and disease, which has resulted in an inconsistent and confusing literature. Progress will require rigorous and creative research.

Recent Progress in Lyme Disease and Remaining Challenges

Lyme disease (also known as Lyme borreliosis) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States with an estimated 476,000 cases per year. While historically, the long-term impact of Lyme disease on patients has been controversial, mounting evidence supports the idea that a substantial number of patients experience persistent symptoms following treatment. The research community has largely lacked the necessary funding to properly advance the scientific and clinical understanding of the disease, or to develop and evaluate innovative approaches for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Given the many outstanding questions raised into the diagnosis, clinical presentation and treatment of Lyme disease, and the underlying molecular mechanisms that trigger persistent disease, there is an urgent need for more support. This review article summarizes progress over the past 5 years in our understanding of Lyme and tick-borne diseases in the United States and highlights remaining challenges.

Rodent host population dynamics drive zoonotic Lyme Borreliosis and Orthohantavirus infections in humans in Northern Europe

Zoonotic diseases, caused by pathogens transmitted between other vertebrate animals and humans, pose a major risk to human health. Rodents are important reservoir hosts for many zoonotic pathogens, and rodent population dynamics affect the infection dynamics of rodent-borne diseases, such as diseases caused by hantaviruses. However, the role of rodent population dynamics in determining the infection dynamics of rodent-associated tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (LB), caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato bacteria, have gained limited attention in Northern Europe, despite the multiannual abundance fluctuations, the so-called vole cycles, that characterise rodent population dynamics in the region. Here, we quantify the associations between rodent abundance and LB human cases and Puumala Orthohantavirus (PUUV) infections by using two time series (25-year and 9-year) in Finland. Both bank vole (Myodes glareolus) abundance as well as LB and PUUV infection incidence in humans showed approximately 3-year cycles. Without vector transmitted PUUV infections followed the bank vole host abundance fluctuations with two-month time lag, whereas tick-transmitted LB was associated with bank vole abundance ca. 12 and 24 months earlier. However, the strength of association between LB incidence and bank vole abundance ca. 12 months before varied over the study years. This study highlights that the human risk to acquire rodent-borne pathogens, as well as rodent-associated tick-borne pathogens is associated with the vole cycles in Northern Fennoscandia, yet with complex time lags.

Impact of Land Use Changes and Habitat Fragmentation on the Eco-epidemiology of Tick-Borne Diseases

The incidence of tick-borne diseases has increased in recent decades and accounts for the majority of vector-borne disease cases in temperate areas of Europe, North America, and Asia. This emergence has been attributed to multiple and interactive drivers including changes in climate, land use, abundance of key hosts, and people's behaviors affecting the probability of human exposure to infected ticks. In this forum paper, we focus on how land use changes have shaped the eco-epidemiology of Ixodes scapularis-borne pathogens, in particular the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto in the eastern United States. We use this as a model system, addressing other tick-borne disease systems as needed to illustrate patterns or processes. We first examine how land use interacts with abiotic conditions (microclimate) and biotic factors (e.g., host community composition) to influence the enzootic hazard, measured as the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi s.s. We then review the evidence of how specific landscape configuration, in particular forest fragmentation, influences the enzootic hazard and disease risk across spatial scales and urbanization levels. We emphasize the need for a dynamic understanding of landscapes based on tick and pathogen host movement and habitat use in relation to human resource provisioning. We propose a coupled natural-human systems framework for tick-borne diseases that accounts for the multiple interactions, nonlinearities and feedbacks in the system and conclude with a call for standardization of methodology and terminology to help integrate studies conducted at multiple scales.

The Contribution of Wildlife Hosts to the Rise of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in North America

Wildlife vertebrate hosts are integral to enzootic cycles of tick-borne pathogens, and in some cases have played key roles in the recent rise of ticks and tick-borne diseases in North America. In this forum article, we highlight roles that wildlife hosts play in the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic, companion animal, livestock, and wildlife tick-borne pathogens. We begin by illustrating how wildlife contribute directly and indirectly to the increase and geographic expansion of ticks and their associated pathogens. Wildlife provide blood meals for tick growth and reproduction; serve as pathogen reservoirs; and can disperse ticks and pathogens-either through natural movement (e.g., avian migration) or through human-facilitated movement (e.g., wildlife translocations and trade). We then discuss opportunities to manage tick-borne disease through actions directed at wildlife hosts. To conclude, we highlight key gaps in our understanding of the ecology of tick-host interactions, emphasizing that wildlife host communities are themselves a very dynamic component of tick-pathogen-host systems and therefore complicate management of tick-borne diseases, and should be taken into account when considering host-targeted approaches. Effective management of wildlife to reduce tick-borne disease risk further requires consideration of the 'human dimensions' of wildlife management. This includes understanding the public's diverse views and values about wildlife and wildlife impacts-including the perceived role of wildlife in fostering tick-borne diseases. Public health agencies should capitalize on the expertise of wildlife agencies when developing strategies to reduce tick-borne disease risks.

Environmental variation drives continental-scale synchrony of European beech reproduction

Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance-decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation.

Association between predator species richness and human hantavirus infection emergence in Brazil

Hantavirus infection is a rodent-borne disease (RBD) transmitted by urine or feces (as the natural reservoirs) with an annual estimated worldwide incidence of ~150,000 cases. Previous ecological studies suggested that higher species richness of rodents could decrease the risk of RBDs in humans, because the regulatory pressure of predators could reduce contact among rodents, and between humans and rodents. Using surveillance data, we investigated the association of predator species richness with hantavirus infection emergence in 5562 Brazilian inland municipalities between 2007 and 2017. Multivariable logistic regression models were used for the analyses. Diurnal and non-diurnal predator species were independent explanatory variables in the models. Rodent species richness and demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors were used as covariates. During the study period, 1084 cases were reported in 429 municipalities. The results showed a reverse-U-shaped association between diurnal predator species richness and hantavirus infection emergence (odds ratio [OR] 0.463, 0.688, and 0.553 for the first [lowest], third, and fourth [highest] quartiles, respectively, using the second quartile as a reference), while higher non-diurnal predator species richness tended to be associated with higher emergence risk (OR 0.134, 1.065, and 2.708 for the first, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively). The difference in these associations illustrates the complexity of the effects of predator species richness on human RBDs, which require further investigation in follow-up studies. The results showed a close link between environmental factors and public health, emphasizing that the One Health concept should be employed to understand the dynamics of RBDs.

Active Forest Management Reduces Blacklegged Tick and Tick-Borne Pathogen Exposure Risk

In the northeastern USA, active forest management can include timber harvests designed to meet silvicultural objectives (i.e., harvesting trees that meet certain maturity, height, age, or quality criteria). Timber harvesting is an important tool in enhancing regeneration and maintaining forest health. It also has considerable potential to influence transmission dynamics of tick-borne pathogens, which are deeply embedded in the forest ecosystem. We conducted a 2-year study to test the hypotheses that recent timber harvesting impacts blacklegged tick density and infection prevalence in managed nonindustrial forests. We found that (1) recent harvesting reduces the presence of nymphal and density of adult blacklegged ticks, (2) recently harvested stands are characterized by understory microclimate conditions that may inhibit tick survival and host-seeking behavior, (3) capture rates of small mammal species frequently parasitized by immature ticks are lower in recently harvested stands compared to control stands with no recent harvest history. In addition, a 1-year pilot study suggests that harvesting does not affect nymphal infection prevalence. Collectively, our results demonstrate that forest structure and understory conditions may impact ticks and the pathogens they transmit via a range of mechanistic pathways, and moreover, active forest management may offer sustainable tools to inhibit entomological risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens in the landscape.

Masting by beech trees predicts the risk of Lyme disease

BACKGROUND

The incidence of Lyme borreliosis and other tick-borne diseases is increasing in Europe and North America. There is currently much interest in identifying the ecological factors that determine the density of infected ticks as this variable determines the risk of Lyme borreliosis to vertebrate hosts, including humans. Lyme borreliosis is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) and in western Europe, the hard tick Ixodes ricinus is the most important vector.

METHODS

Over a 15-year period (2004-2018), we monitored the monthly abundance of I. ricinus ticks (nymphs and adults) and their B. burgdorferi s.l. infection status at four different elevations on a mountain in western Switzerland. We collected climate variables in the field and from nearby weather stations. We obtained data on beech tree seed production (masting) from the literature, as the abundance of Ixodes nymphs can increase dramatically 2 years after a masting event. We used generalized linear mixed effects models and AIC-based model selection to identify the ecological factors that influence inter-annual variation in the nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) and the density of infected nymphs (DIN).

RESULTS

We found that the NIP decreased by 78% over the study period. Inter-annual variation in the NIP was explained by the mean precipitation in the present year, and the duration that the DNA extraction was stored in the freezer prior to pathogen detection. The DIN decreased over the study period at all four elevation sites, and the decrease was significant at the top elevation. Inter-annual variation in the DIN was best explained by elevation site, year, beech tree masting index 2 years prior and the mean relative humidity in the present year. This is the first study in Europe to demonstrate that seed production by deciduous trees influences the density of nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi s.l. and hence the risk of Lyme borreliosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health officials in Europe should be aware that masting by deciduous trees is an important predictor of the risk of Lyme borreliosis.