JAM: A Scalable Bayesian Framework for Joint Analysis of Marginal SNP Effects

Hierarchical joint analysis of marginal summary statistics-Part I: Multipopulation fine mapping and credible set construction

Recent advancement in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comes from not only increasingly larger sample sizes but also the shift in focus towards underrepresented populations. Multipopulation GWAS increase power to detect novel risk variants and improve fine-mapping resolution by leveraging evidence and differences in linkage disequilibrium (LD) from diverse populations. Here, we expand upon our previous approach for single-population fine-mapping through Joint Analysis of Marginal SNP Effects (JAM) to a multipopulation analysis (mJAM). Under the assumption that true causal variants are common across studies, we implement a hierarchical model framework that conditions on multiple SNPs while explicitly incorporating the different LD structures across populations. The mJAM framework can be used to first select index variants using the mJAM likelihood with different feature selection approaches. In addition, we present a novel approach leveraging the ideas of mediation to construct credible sets for these index variants. Construction of such credible sets can be performed given any existing index variants. We illustrate the implementation of the mJAM likelihood through two implementations: mJAM-SuSiE (a Bayesian approach) and mJAM-Forward selection. Through simulation studies based on realistic effect sizes and levels of LD, we demonstrated that mJAM performs well for constructing concise credible sets that include the underlying causal variants. In real data examples taken from the most recent multipopulation prostate cancer GWAS, we showed several practical advantages of mJAM over other existing multipopulation methods.

Investigating the Role of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Germline Genetics on Prostate Cancer Risk

Background

Genetic factors play an important role in prostate cancer (PCa) development with polygenic risk scores (PRS) predicting disease risk across genetic ancestries. However, there are few convincing modifiable factors for PCa and little is known about their potential interaction with genetic risk. We analyzed incident PCa cases (n=6,155) and controls (n=98,257) of European and African ancestry from the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort to evaluate the role of neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES)-and how it may interact with PRS-on PCa risk.

Methods

We evaluated a multi-ancestry PCa PRS containing 269 genetic variants to understand the association of germline genetics with PCa in UKB. Using the English Indices of Deprivation, a set of validated metrics that quantify lack of resources within geographical areas, we performed logistic regression to investigate the main effects and interactions between nSES deprivation, PCa PRS, and PCa.

Results

The PCa PRS was strongly associated with PCa (OR=2.04; 95%CI=2.00-2.09; P<0.001). Additionally, nSES deprivation indices were inversely associated with PCa: employment (OR=0.91; 95%CI=0.86-0.96; P<0.001), education (OR=0.94; 95%CI=0.83-0.98; P<0.001), health (OR=0.91; 95%CI=0.86-0.96; P<0.001), and income (OR=0.91; 95%CI=0.86-0.96; P<0.001). The PRS effects showed little heterogeneity across nSES deprivation indices, except for the Townsend Index (P=0.03).

Conclusions

We reaffirmed genetics as a risk factor for PCa and identified nSES deprivation domains that influence PCa detection and are potentially correlated with environmental exposures that are a risk factor for PCa. These findings also suggest that nSES and genetic risk factors for PCa act independently.

Fast and flexible joint fine-mapping of multiple traits via the Sum of Single Effects model

We introduce mvSuSiE, a multi-trait fine-mapping method for identifying putative causal variants from genetic association data (individual-level or summary data). mvSuSiE learns patterns of shared genetic effects from data, and exploits these patterns to improve power to identify causal SNPs. Comparisons on simulated data show that mvSuSiE is competitive in speed, power and precision with existing multi-trait methods, and uniformly improves on single-trait fine-mapping (SuSiE) in each trait separately. We applied mvSuSiE to jointly fine-map 16 blood cell traits using data from the UK Biobank. By jointly analyzing the traits and modeling heterogeneous effect sharing patterns, we discovered a much larger number of causal SNPs (>3,000) compared with single-trait fine-mapping, and with narrower credible sets. mvSuSiE also more comprehensively characterized the ways in which the genetic variants affect one or more blood cell traits; 68% of causal SNPs showed significant effects in more than one blood cell type.

Hierarchical joint analysis of marginal summary statistics-Part II: High-dimensional instrumental analysis of omics data

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis has been widely applied in epidemiology to infer causal relationships using observational data. Genetic variants can also be viewed as valid IVs in Mendelian randomization and transcriptome-wide association studies. However, most multivariate IV approaches cannot scale to high-throughput experimental data. Here, we leverage the flexibility of our previous work, a hierarchical model that jointly analyzes marginal summary statistics (hJAM), to a scalable framework (SHA-JAM) that can be applied to a large number of intermediates and a large number of correlated genetic variants-situations often encountered in modern experiments leveraging omic technologies. SHA-JAM aims to estimate the conditional effect for high-dimensional risk factors on an outcome by incorporating estimates from association analyses of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-intermediate or SNP-gene expression as prior information in a hierarchical model. Results from extensive simulation studies demonstrate that SHA-JAM yields a higher area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), a lower mean-squared error of the estimates, and a much faster computation speed, compared to an existing approach for similar analyses. In two applied examples for prostate cancer, we investigated metabolite and transcriptome associations, respectively, using summary statistics from a GWAS for prostate cancer with more than 140,000 men and high dimensional publicly available summary data for metabolites and transcriptomes.

From GWASs toward Mechanistic Understanding with Case Studies in Dermatogenetics

Many human skin diseases result from the complex interplay of genetic and environmental mechanisms that are largely unknown. GWASs have yielded insight into the genetic aspect of complex disease by highlighting regions of the genome or specific genetic variants associated with disease. Leveraging this information to identify causal genes and cell types will provide insight into fundamental biology, inform diagnostics, and aid drug discovery. However, the etiological mechanisms from genetic variant to disease are still unestablished in most cases. There now exists an unprecedented wealth of data and computational methods for variant interpretation in a functional context. It can be challenging to decide where to start owing to a lack of consensus on the best way to identify causal genetic mechanisms. This article highlights 3 key aspects of genetic variant interpretation: prioritizing causal genes, cell types, and pathways. We provide a practical overview of the main methods and datasets, giving examples from recent atopic dermatitis studies to provide a blueprint for variant interpretation. A collection of resources, including brief description and links to the packages and web tools, is provided for researchers looking to start in silico follow-up genetic analysis of associated genetic variants.

simmrd: An open-source tool to perform simulations in Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become a popular tool for inferring causality of risk factors on disease. There are currently over 45 different methods available to perform MR, reflecting this extremely active research area. It would be desirable to have a standard simulation environment to objectively evaluate the existing and future methods. We present simmrd, an open-source software for performing simulations to evaluate the performance of MR methods in a range of scenarios encountered in practice. Researchers can directly modify the simmrd source code so that the research community may arrive at a widely accepted framework for researchers to evaluate the performance of different MR methods.

A Bayesian fine-mapping model using a continuous global-local shrinkage prior with applications in prostate cancer analysis

The aim of fine mapping is to identify genetic variants causally contributing to complex traits or diseases. Existing fine-mapping methods employ Bayesian discrete mixture priors and depend on a pre-specified maximum number of causal variants, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. In this work, we propose a Bayesian fine-mapping method called h2-D2, utilizing a continuous global-local shrinkage prior. We also present an approach to define credible sets of causal variants in continuous prior settings. Simulation studies demonstrate that h2-D2 outperforms current state-of-the-art fine-mapping methods such as SuSiE and FINEMAP in accurately identifying causal variants and estimating their effect sizes. We further applied h2-D2 to prostate cancer analysis and discovered some previously unknown causal variants. In addition, we inferred 369 target genes associated with the detected causal variants and several pathways that were significantly over-represented by these genes, shedding light on their potential roles in prostate cancer development and progression.

MESuSiE enables scalable and powerful multi-ancestry fine-mapping of causal variants in genome-wide association studies

Fine-mapping in genome-wide association studies attempts to identify causal SNPs from a set of candidate SNPs in a local genomic region of interest and is commonly performed in one genetic ancestry at a time. Here, we present multi-ancestry sum of the single effects model (MESuSiE), a probabilistic multi-ancestry fine-mapping method, to improve the accuracy and resolution of fine-mapping by leveraging association information across ancestries. MESuSiE uses summary statistics as input, accounts for the diverse linkage disequilibrium pattern observed in different ancestries, explicitly models both shared and ancestry-specific causal SNPs, and relies on a variational inference algorithm for scalable computation. We evaluated the performance of MESuSiE through comprehensive simulations and multi-ancestry fine-mapping of four lipid traits with both European and African samples. In the real data, MESuSiE improves fine-mapping resolution by 19.0% to 72.0% compared to existing approaches, is an order of magnitude faster, and captures and categorizes shared and ancestry-specific causal signals with enhanced functional enrichment.

Characterizing prostate cancer risk through multi-ancestry genome-wide discovery of 187 novel risk variants

The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups.

Leveraging information between multiple population groups and traits improves fine-mapping resolution

Statistical fine-mapping helps to pinpoint likely causal variants underlying genetic association signals. Its resolution can be improved by (i) leveraging information between traits; and (ii) exploiting differences in linkage disequilibrium structure between diverse population groups. Using association summary statistics, MGflashfm jointly fine-maps signals from multiple traits and population groups; MGfm uses an analogous framework to analyse each trait separately. We also provide a practical approach to fine-mapping with out-of-sample reference panels. In simulation studies we show that MGflashfm and MGfm are well-calibrated and that the mean proportion of causal variants with PP > 0.80 is above 0.75 (MGflashfm) and 0.70 (MGfm). In our analysis of four lipids traits across five population groups, MGflashfm gives a median 99% credible set reduction of 10.5% over MGfm. MGflashfm and MGfm only require summary level data, making them very useful fine-mapping tools in consortia efforts where individual-level data cannot be shared.

Multi-trait discovery and fine-mapping of lipid loci in 125,000 individuals of African ancestry

Most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for lipid traits focus on the separate analysis of lipid traits. Moreover, there are limited GWASs evaluating the genetic variants associated with multiple lipid traits in African ancestry. To further identify and localize loci with pleiotropic effects on lipid traits, we conducted a genome-wide meta-analysis, multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG), and multi-trait fine-mapping (flashfm) in 125,000 individuals of African ancestry. Our meta-analysis and MTAG identified four and 14 novel loci associated with lipid traits, respectively. flashfm yielded an 18% mean reduction in the 99% credible set size compared to single-trait fine-mapping with JAM. Moreover, we identified more genetic variants with a posterior probability of causality >0.9 with flashfm than with JAM. In conclusion, we identified additional novel loci associated with lipid traits, and flashfm reduced the 99% credible set size to identify causal genetic variants associated with multiple lipid traits in African ancestry.

Genetic fine-mapping from summary data using a nonlocal prior improves the detection of multiple causal variants

MOTIVATION

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in identifying genomic loci associated with complex traits. Genetic fine-mapping aims to detect independent causal variants from the GWAS-identified loci, adjusting for linkage disequilibrium patterns.

RESULTS

We present "FiniMOM" (fine-mapping using a product inverse-moment prior), a novel Bayesian fine-mapping method for summarized genetic associations. For causal effects, the method uses a nonlocal inverse-moment prior, which is a natural prior distribution to model non-null effects in finite samples. A beta-binomial prior is set for the number of causal variants, with a parameterization that can be used to control for potential misspecifications in the linkage disequilibrium reference. The results of simulations studies aimed to mimic a typical GWAS on circulating protein levels show improved credible set coverage and power of the proposed method over current state-of-the-art fine-mapping method SuSiE, especially in the case of multiple causal variants within a locus.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

https://vkarhune.github.io/finimom/.

A review of genetic risk in systemic lupus erythematosus

INTRODUCTION

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is a complex multisystem autoimmune disease with a wide range of signs and symptoms in affected individuals. The utilization of genome-wide association study (GWAS) technology has led to an explosion in the number of genetic risk factors mapped for autoimmune diseases, including SLE.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we summarize the more recent genetic risk loci mapped in SLE, which bring the total number of loci mapped to approximately 200. We review prioritization analyses of the associated variants and experimental validation of the putative causal variants. This includes the implementation of new bioinformatic techniques to align genomic and functional data and the use of transcriptomics with single-cell RNA-sequencing, CRISPR genome editing, and Massive Parallel Reporter Assays to analyze non-coding regulatory genetics.

EXPERT OPINION

Despite progress in identifying more genetic risk loci and variant-gene pairs for SLE, understanding its pathogenesis and applying findings clinically remains challenging. The polygenic risk score (PRS) has been used as an application of SLE genetics, but with limited performance in non-EUR populations. In the next few years, advancements in proteomics, post-translational modification estimation, and whole-genome sequencing will enhance disease understanding.

CARMA is a new Bayesian model for fine-mapping in genome-wide association meta-analyses

Fine-mapping is commonly used to identify putative causal variants at genome-wide significant loci. Here we propose a Bayesian model for fine-mapping that has several advantages over existing methods, including flexible specification of the prior distribution of effect sizes, joint modeling of summary statistics and functional annotations and accounting for discrepancies between summary statistics and external linkage disequilibrium in meta-analyses. Using simulations, we compare performance with commonly used fine-mapping methods and show that the proposed model has higher power and lower false discovery rate (FDR) when including functional annotations, and higher power, lower FDR and higher coverage for credible sets in meta-analyses. We further illustrate our approach by applying it to a meta-analysis of Alzheimer's disease genome-wide association studies where we prioritize putatively causal variants and genes.

Proteome-Wide Mendelian Randomization Identifies Causal Links Between Blood Proteins and Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex disease and the leading cause of gastrointestinal disease-related hospital admissions. Few therapeutic options exist for AP prevention. Blood proteins with causal evidence may represent promising drug targets, but few have been causally linked with AP. Our objective was to identify blood proteins linked with AP by combining genome-wide association meta-analysis and proteome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR) studies.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis totalling 10,630 patients with AP and 844,679 controls and a series of inverse-variance weighted MR analyses using cis-acting variants on 4719 blood proteins from the deCODE study (n = 35,559) and 4979 blood proteins from the Fenland study (n = 10,708).

RESULTS

The meta-analysis identified genome-wide significant variants (P <5 × 10^-8) at 5 loci (ABCG5/8, TWIST2, SPINK1, PRSS2 and MORC4). The proteome-wide MR analyses identified 68 unique blood proteins that may causally be associated with AP, including 29 proteins validated in both data sets. Functional annotation of these proteins confirmed expression of many proteins in metabolic tissues responsible for digestion and energy metabolism, such as the esophagus, adipose tissue, and liver as well as acinar cells of the pancreas. Genetic colocalization and investigations into the druggable genome also identified potential drug targets for AP.

CONCLUSIONS

This large genome-wide association study meta-analysis for AP identified new variants linked with AP as well as several blood proteins that may be causally associated with AP. This study provides new information on the genetic architecture of this disease and identified pathways related to AP, which may be further explored as possible therapeutic targets for AP.

Metabolic Signatures of Youth Exposure to Mixtures of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances: A Multi-Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) is ubiquitous and has been associated with an increased risk of several cardiometabolic diseases. However, the metabolic pathways linking PFAS exposure and human disease are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We examined associations of PFAS mixtures with alterations in metabolic pathways in independent cohorts of adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Three hundred twelve overweight/obese adolescents from the Study of Latino Adolescents at Risk (SOLAR) and 137 young adults from the Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS) were included in the analysis. Plasma PFAS and the metabolome were determined using liquid-chromatography/high-resolution mass spectrometry. A metabolome-wide association study was performed on log-transformed metabolites using Bayesian regression with a g-prior specification and g-computation for modeling exposure mixtures to estimate the impact of exposure to a mixture of six ubiquitous PFAS (PFOS, PFHxS, PFHpS, PFOA, PFNA, and PFDA). Pathway enrichment analysis was performed using Mummichog and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis. Significance across cohorts was determined using weighted Z -tests.

RESULTS

In the SOLAR and CHS cohorts, PFAS exposure was associated with alterations in tyrosine metabolism (meta-analysis p = 0.00002 ) and de novo fatty acid biosynthesis (p = 0.03 ), among others. For example, when increasing all PFAS in the mixture from low (∼ 30 th percentile) to high (∼ 70 th percentile), thyroxine (T4), a thyroid hormone related to tyrosine metabolism, increased by 0.72 standard deviations (SDs; equivalent to a standardized mean difference) in the SOLAR cohort (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 0.00, 1.20) and 1.60 SD in the CHS cohort (95% BCI: 0.39, 2.80). Similarly, when going from low to high PFAS exposure, arachidonic acid increased by 0.81 SD in the SOLAR cohort (95% BCI: 0.37, 1.30) and 0.67 SD in the CHS cohort (95% BCI: 0.00, 1.50). In general, no individual PFAS appeared to drive the observed associations.

DISCUSSION

Exposure to PFAS is associated with alterations in amino acid metabolism and lipid metabolism in adolescents and young adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11372.

Flashfm-ivis: interactive visualization for fine-mapping of multiple quantitative traits

SUMMARY

flashfm-ivis provides a suite of interactive visualization plots to view potential causal genetic variants that underlie associations that are shared or distinct between multiple quantitative traits and compares results between single- and multi-trait fine-mapping. Unique features include network diagrams that show joint effects between variants for each trait and regional association plots that integrate fine-mapping results, all with user-controlled zoom features for an interactive exploration of potential causal variants across traits.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

flashfm-ivis is an open-source software under the MIT license. It is available as an interactive web-based tool (http://shiny.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/apps/flashfm-ivis/) and as an R package. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/fz-cambridge/flashfm-ivis and https://zenodo.org/record/6376244#.YjnarC-l2X0. Additional features can be downloaded as standalone R libraries to encourage reuse.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary information are available at Bioinformatics online.

Fine-mapping from summary data with the "Sum of Single Effects" model

In recent work, Wang et al introduced the "Sum of Single Effects" (SuSiE) model, and showed that it provides a simple and efficient approach to fine-mapping genetic variants from individual-level data. Here we present new methods for fitting the SuSiE model to summary data, for example to single-SNP z-scores from an association study and linkage disequilibrium (LD) values estimated from a suitable reference panel. To develop these new methods, we first describe a simple, generic strategy for extending any individual-level data method to deal with summary data. The key idea is to replace the usual regression likelihood with an analogous likelihood based on summary data. We show that existing fine-mapping methods such as FINEMAP and CAVIAR also (implicitly) use this strategy, but in different ways, and so this provides a common framework for understanding different methods for fine-mapping. We investigate other common practical issues in fine-mapping with summary data, including problems caused by inconsistencies between the z-scores and LD estimates, and we develop diagnostics to identify these inconsistencies. We also present a new refinement procedure that improves model fits in some data sets, and hence improves overall reliability of the SuSiE fine-mapping results. Detailed evaluations of fine-mapping methods in a range of simulated data sets show that SuSiE applied to summary data is competitive, in both speed and accuracy, with the best available fine-mapping methods for summary data.

Progress Toward a Multiomic Understanding of Traumatic Brain Injury: A Review

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is not a single disease state but describes an array of conditions associated with insult or injury to the brain. While some individuals with TBI recover within a few days or months, others present with persistent symptoms that can cause disability, neuropsychological trauma, and even death. Understanding, diagnosing, and treating TBI is extremely complex for many reasons, including the variable biomechanics of head impact, differences in severity and location of injury, and individual patient characteristics. Because of these confounding factors, the development of reliable diagnostics and targeted treatments for brain injury remains elusive. We argue that the development of effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for TBI requires a deep understanding of human neurophysiology at the molecular level and that the framework of multiomics may provide some effective solutions for the diagnosis and treatment of this challenging condition. To this end, we present here a comprehensive review of TBI biomarker candidates from across the multiomic disciplines and compare them with known signatures associated with other neuropsychological conditions, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. We believe that this integrated view will facilitate a deeper understanding of the pathophysiology of TBI and its potential links to other neurological diseases.

Polygenic risk for prostate cancer: Decreasing relative risk with age but little impact on absolute risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for a variety of diseases have recently been shown to have relative risks that depend on age, and genetic relative risks decrease with increasing age. A refined understanding of the age dependency of PRSs for a disease is important for personalized risk predictions and risk stratification. To further evaluate how the PRS relative risk for prostate cancer depends on age, we refined analyses for a validated PRS for prostate cancer by using 64,274 prostate cancer cases and 46,432 controls of diverse ancestry (82.8% European, 9.8% African American, 3.8% Latino, 2.8% Asian, and 0.8% Ghanaian). Our strategy applied a novel weighted proportional hazards model to case-control data to fully utilize age to refine how the relative risk decreased with age. We found significantly greater relative risks for younger men (age 30-55 years) compared with older men (70-88 years) for both relative risk per standard deviation of the PRS and dichotomized according to the upper 90^th percentile of the PRS distribution. For the largest European ancestral group that could provide reliable resolution, the log-relative risk decreased approximately linearly from age 50 to age 75. Despite strong evidence of age-dependent genetic relative risk, our results suggest that absolute risk predictions differed little from predictions that assumed a constant relative risk over ages, from short-term to long-term predictions, simplifying implementation of risk discussions into clinical practice.

Methods for statistical fine-mapping and their applications to auto-immune diseases

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of loci in the human genome that are associated with different traits, understanding the biological mechanisms underlying the association signals identified in GWAS remains challenging. Statistical fine-mapping is a method aiming to refine GWAS signals by evaluating which variant(s) are truly causal to the phenotype. Here, we review the types of statistical fine-mapping methods that have been widely used to date, with a focus on recently developed functionally informed fine-mapping (FIFM) methods that utilize functional annotations. We then systematically review the applications of statistical fine-mapping in autoimmune disease studies to highlight the value of statistical fine-mapping in biological contexts.

Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies First Locus Associated with Susceptibility to Cerebral Venous Thrombosis

OBJECTIVE

Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is an uncommon form of stroke affecting mostly young individuals. Although genetic factors are thought to play a role in this cerebrovascular condition, its genetic etiology is not well understood.

METHODS

A genome-wide association study was performed to identify genetic variants influencing susceptibility to CVT. A 2-stage genome-wide study was undertaken in 882 Europeans diagnosed with CVT and 1,205 ethnicity-matched control subjects divided into discovery and independent replication datasets.

RESULTS

In the overall case-control cohort, we identified highly significant associations with 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the 9q34.2 region. The strongest association was with rs8176645 (combined p = 9.15 × 10-24 ; odds ratio [OR] = 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.76-2.31). The discovery set findings were validated across an independent European cohort. Genetic risk score for this 9q34.2 region increases CVT risk by a pooled estimate OR = 2.65 (95% CI = 2.21-3.20, p = 2.00 × 10-16 ). SNPs within this region were in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with coding regions of the ABO gene. The ABO blood group was determined using allele combination of SNPs rs8176746 and rs8176645. Blood groups A, B, or AB, were at 2.85 times (95% CI = 2.32-3.52, p = 2.00 × 10-16 ) increased risk of CVT compared with individuals with blood group O.

INTERPRETATION

We present the first chromosomal region to robustly associate with a genetic susceptibility to CVT. This region more than doubles the likelihood of CVT, a risk greater than any previously identified thrombophilia genetic risk marker. That the identified variant is in strong LD with the coding region of the ABO gene with differences in blood group prevalence provides important new insights into the pathophysiology of CVT. ANN NEUROL 2021;90:777-788.

The flashfm approach for fine-mapping multiple quantitative traits

Joint fine-mapping that leverages information between quantitative traits could improve accuracy and resolution over single-trait fine-mapping. Using summary statistics, flashfm (flexible and shared information fine-mapping) fine-maps signals for multiple traits, allowing for missing trait measurements and use of related individuals. In a Bayesian framework, prior model probabilities are formulated to favour model combinations that share causal variants to capitalise on information between traits. Simulation studies demonstrate that both approaches produce broadly equivalent results when traits have no shared causal variants. When traits share at least one causal variant, flashfm reduces the number of potential causal variants by 30% compared with single-trait fine-mapping. In a Ugandan cohort with 33 cardiometabolic traits, flashfm gave a 20% reduction in the total number of potential causal variants from single-trait fine-mapping. Here we show flashfm is computationally efficient and can easily be deployed across publicly available summary statistics for signals in up to six traits.

Bayesian variable selection with a pleiotropic loss function in Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants as instruments to assess the existence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and an outcome. A Mendelian randomization analysis requires a set of genetic variants that are strongly associated with the risk factor and only associated with the outcome through their effect on the risk factor. We describe a novel variable selection algorithm for Mendelian randomization that can identify sets of genetic variants which are suitable in both these respects. Our algorithm is applicable in the context of two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization and employs a recently proposed theoretical extension of the traditional Bayesian statistics framework, including a loss function to penalize genetic variants that exhibit pleiotropic effects. The algorithm offers robust inference through the use of model averaging, as we illustrate by running it on a range of simulation scenarios and comparing it against established pleiotropy-robust Mendelian randomization methods. In a real-data application, we study the effect of systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the risk of suffering from coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a recent large-scale GWAS for blood pressure, we use 395 genetic variants for systolic and 391 variants for diastolic blood pressure. Both traits are shown to have significant risk-increasing effects on CHD risk.

Identifying causal variants by fine mapping across multiple studies

Increasingly large Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have yielded numerous variants associated with many complex traits, motivating the development of "fine mapping" methods to identify which of the associated variants are causal. Additionally, GWAS of the same trait for different populations are increasingly available, raising the possibility of refining fine mapping results further by leveraging different linkage disequilibrium (LD) structures across studies. Here, we introduce multiple study causal variants identification in associated regions (MsCAVIAR), a method that extends the popular CAVIAR fine mapping framework to a multiple study setting using a random effects model. MsCAVIAR only requires summary statistics and LD as input, accounts for uncertainty in association statistics using a multivariate normal model, allows for multiple causal variants at a locus, and explicitly models the possibility of different SNP effect sizes in different populations. We demonstrate the efficacy of MsCAVIAR in both a simulation study and a trans-ethnic, trans-biobank fine mapping analysis of High Density Lipoprotein (HDL).

A more accurate method for colocalisation analysis allowing for multiple causal variants

In genome-wide association studies (GWAS) it is now common to search for, and find, multiple causal variants located in close proximity. It has also become standard to ask whether different traits share the same causal variants, but one of the popular methods to answer this question, coloc, makes the simplifying assumption that only a single causal variant exists for any given trait in any genomic region. Here, we examine the potential of the recently proposed Sum of Single Effects (SuSiE) regression framework, which can be used for fine-mapping genetic signals, for use with coloc. SuSiE is a novel approach that allows evidence for association at multiple causal variants to be evaluated simultaneously, whilst separating the statistical support for each variant conditional on the causal signal being considered. We show this results in more accurate coloc inference than other proposals to adapt coloc for multiple causal variants based on conditioning. We therefore recommend that coloc be used in combination with SuSiE to optimise accuracy of colocalisation analyses when multiple causal variants exist.

An integrated risk and epidemiological model to estimate risk-stratified COVID-19 outcomes for Los Angeles County: March 1, 2020-March 1, 2021

The objective of this study was to use available data on the prevalence of COVID-19 risk factors in subpopulations and epidemic dynamics at the population level to estimate probabilities of severe illness and the case and infection fatality rates (CFR and IFR) stratified across subgroups representing all combinations of the risk factors age, comorbidities, obesity, and smoking status. We focus on the first year of the epidemic in Los Angeles County (LAC) (March 1, 2020-March 1, 2021), spanning three epidemic waves. A relative risk modeling approach was developed to estimate conditional effects from available marginal data. A dynamic stochastic epidemic model was developed to produce time-varying population estimates of epidemic parameters including the transmission and infection observation rate. The epidemic and risk models were integrated to produce estimates of subpopulation-stratified probabilities of disease progression and CFR and IFR for LAC. The probabilities of disease progression and CFR and IFR were found to vary as extensively between age groups as within age categories combined with the presence of absence of other risk factors, suggesting that it is inappropriate to summarize epidemiological parameters for age categories alone, let alone the entire population. The fine-grained subpopulation-stratified estimates of COVID-19 outcomes produced in this study are useful in understanding disparities in the effect of the epidemic on different groups in LAC, and can inform analyses of targeted subpopulation-level policy interventions.

A Hierarchical Approach Using Marginal Summary Statistics for Multiple Intermediates in a Mendelian Randomization or Transcriptome Analysis

Previous research has demonstrated the usefulness of hierarchical modeling for incorporating a flexible array of prior information in genetic association studies. When this prior information consists of estimates from association analyses of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)-intermediate or SNP-gene expression, a hierarchical model is equivalent to a 2-stage instrumental or transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) analysis, respectively. We propose to extend our previous approach for the joint analysis of marginal summary statistics to incorporate prior information via a hierarchical model (hJAM). In this framework, the use of appropriate estimates as prior information yields an analysis similar to Mendelian randomization (MR) and TWAS approaches. hJAM is applicable to multiple correlated SNPs and intermediates to yield conditional estimates for the intermediates on the outcome, thus providing advantages over alternative approaches. We investigated the performance of hJAM in comparison with existing MR and TWAS approaches and demonstrated that hJAM yields an unbiased estimate, maintains correct type-I error, and has increased power across extensive simulations. We applied hJAM to 2 examples: estimating the causal effects of body mass index (GIANT Consortium) and type 2 diabetes (DIAGRAM data set, GERA Cohort, and UK Biobank) on myocardial infarction (UK Biobank) and estimating the causal effects of the expressions of the genes for nuclear casein kinase and cyclin dependent kinase substrate 1 and peptidase M20 domain containing 1 on the risk of prostate cancer (PRACTICAL and GTEx).

Triangulating molecular evidence to prioritize candidate causal genes at established atopic dermatitis loci

Genome-wide association studies for atopic dermatitis (AD) have identified 25 reproducible loci. We attempt to prioritize candidate causal genes at these loci using extensive molecular resources compiled into a bioinformatics pipeline. We identified a list of 103 molecular resources for AD aetiology, including expression, protein and DNA methylation QTL datasets in skin or immune-relevant tissues which were tested for overlap with GWAS signals. This was combined with functional annotation using regulatory variant prediction, and features such as promoter-enhancer interactions, expression studies and variant fine-mapping. For each gene at each locus, we condensed the evidence into a prioritization score. Across the investigated loci, we detected significant enrichment of genes with adaptive immune regulatory function and epidermal barrier formation among the top prioritized genes. At 8 loci, we were able to prioritize a single candidate gene (IL6R, ADO, PRR5L, IL7R, ETS1, INPP5D, MDM1, TRAF3). In addition, at 6 of the 25 loci, our analysis prioritizes less familiar candidates (SLC22A5, IL2RA, MDM1, DEXI, ADO, STMN3). Our analysis provides support for previously implicated genes at several AD GWAS loci, as well as evidence for plausible additional candidates at others, which may represent potential targets for drug discovery.

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of prostate cancer identifies new susceptibility loci and informs genetic risk prediction

Prostate cancer is a highly heritable disease with large disparities in incidence rates across ancestry populations. We conducted a multiancestry meta-analysis of prostate cancer genome-wide association studies (107,247 cases and 127,006 controls) and identified 86 new genetic risk variants independently associated with prostate cancer risk, bringing the total to 269 known risk variants. The top genetic risk score (GRS) decile was associated with odds ratios that ranged from 5.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.84-5.29) for men of European ancestry to 3.74 (95% CI, 3.36-4.17) for men of African ancestry. Men of African ancestry were estimated to have a mean GRS that was 2.18-times higher (95% CI, 2.14-2.22), and men of East Asian ancestry 0.73-times lower (95% CI, 0.71-0.76), than men of European ancestry. These findings support the role of germline variation contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk, with the GRS offering an approach for personalized risk prediction.

Estimation of COVID-19 risk-stratified epidemiological parameters and policy implications for Los Angeles County through an integrated risk and stochastic epidemiological model

Background

Health disparities have emerged with the COVID-19 epidemic because the risk of exposure to infection and the prevalence of risk factors for severe outcomes given infection vary within and between populations. However, estimated epidemic quantities such as rates of severe illness and death, the case fatality rate (CFR), and infection fatality rate (IFR), are often expressed in terms of aggregated population-level estimates due to the lack of epidemiological data at the refined subpopulation level. For public health policy makers to better address the pandemic, stratified estimates are necessary to investigate the potential outcomes of policy scenarios targeting specific subpopulations.

Methods

We develop a framework for using available data on the prevalence of COVID-19 risk factors (age, comorbidities, BMI, smoking status) in subpopulations, and epidemic dynamics at the population level and stratified by age, to estimate subpopulation-stratified probabilities of severe illness and the CFR (as deaths over observed infections) and IFR (as deaths over estimated total infections) across risk profiles representing all combinations of risk factors including age, comorbidities, obesity class, and smoking status. A dynamic epidemic model is integrated with a relative risk model to produce time-varying subpopulation-stratified estimates. The integrated model is used to analyze dynamic outcomes and parameters by population and subpopulation, and to simulate alternate policy scenarios that protect specific at-risk subpopulations or modify the population-wide transmission rate. The model is calibrated to data from the Los Angeles County population during the period March 1 - October 15 2020.

Findings

We estimate a rate of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13,0.33) of infections observed before April 15, which increased over the epidemic course to 0.41 (0.11,0.69). Overall population-average IFR( t ) estimates for LAC peaked at 0.77% (0.38%,1.15%) on May 15 and decreased to 0.55% (0.24%,0.90%) by October 15. The population-average IFR( t ) stratified by age group varied extensively across subprofiles representing each combination of the additional risk factors considered (comorbidities, BMI, smoking). We found median IFRs ranging from 0.009%-0.04% in the youngest age group (0-19), from 0.1%-1.8% for those aged 20-44, 0.36%-4.3% for those aged 45-64, and 1.02%-5.42% for those aged 65+. In the group aged 65+ for which the rate of unobserved infections is likely much lower, we find median CFRs in the range 4.4%-23.45%. The initial societal lockdown period avoided overwhelming healthcare capacity and greatly reduced the observed death count. In comparative scenario analysis, alternative policies in which the population-wide transmission rate is reduced to a moderate and sustainable level of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) would not have been sufficient to avoid overwhelming healthcare capacity, and additionally would have exceeded the observed death count. Combining the moderate NPI policy with stringent protection of the at-risk subpopulation of individuals 65+ would have resulted in a death count similar to observed levels, but hospital counts would have approached capacity limits.

Interpretation

The risk of severe illness and death of COVID-19 varies tremendously across subpopulations and over time, suggesting that it is inappropriate to summarize epidemiological parameters for the entire population and epidemic time period. This includes variation not only across age groups, but also within age categories combined with other risk factors analyzed in this study (comorbidities, obesity status, smoking). In the policy analysis accounting for differences in IFR across risk groups in comparing the control of infections and protection of higher risk groups, we find that the strict initial lockdown period in LAC was effective because it both reduced overall transmission and protected individuals at greater risk, resulting in preventing both healthcare overload and deaths. While similar numbers of deaths as observed in LAC could have been achieved with a more moderate NPI policy combined with greater protection of individuals 65+, this would have come at the expense of overwhelming the healthcare system. In anticipation of a continued rise in cases in LAC this winter, policy makers need to consider the trade offs of various policy options on the numbers of the overall population that may become infected, severely ill, and that die when considering policies targeted at subpopulations at greatest risk of transmitting infection and at greatest risk for developing severe outcomes.

Fine-mapping genetic associations

Whilst thousands of genetic variants have been associated with human traits, identifying the subset of those variants that are causal requires a further 'fine-mapping' step. We review the basic fine-mapping approach, which is computationally fast and requires only summary data, but depends on an assumption of a single causal variant per associated region which is recognized as biologically unrealistic. We discuss different ways that the approach has been built upon to accommodate multiple causal variants in a region and to incorporate additional layers of functional annotation data. We further review methods for simultaneous fine-mapping of multiple datasets, either exploiting different linkage disequilibrium (LD) structures across ancestries or borrowing information between distinct but related traits. Finally, we look to the future and the opportunities that will be offered by increasingly accurate maps of causal variants for a multitude of human traits.

simGWAS: a fast method for simulation of large scale case-control GWAS summary statistics

Motivation

Methods for analysis of GWAS summary statistics have encouraged data sharing and democratized the analysis of different diseases. Ideal validation for such methods is application to simulated data, where some ‘truth’ is known. As GWAS increase in size, so does the computational complexity of such evaluations; standard practice repeatedly simulates and analyses genotype data for all individuals in an example study.

Results

We have developed a novel method based on an alternative approach, directly simulating GWAS summary data, without individual data as an intermediate step. We mathematically derive the expected statistics for any set of causal variants and their effect sizes, conditional upon control haplotype frequencies (available from public reference datasets). Simulation of GWAS summary output can be conducted independently of sample size by simulating random variates about these expected values. Across a range of scenarios, our method, produces very similar output to that from simulating individual genotypes with a substantial gain in speed even for modest sample sizes. Fast simulation of GWAS summary statistics will enable more complete and rapid evaluation of summary statistic methods as well as opening new potential avenues of research in fine mapping and gene set enrichment analysis.

Availability and implementation

Our method is available under a GPL license as an R package from http://github.com/chr1swallace/simGWAS.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Improving the coverage of credible sets in Bayesian genetic fine-mapping

Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have successfully identified thousands of loci associated with human diseases. Bayesian genetic fine-mapping studies aim to identify the specific causal variants within GWAS loci responsible for each association, reporting credible sets of plausible causal variants, which are interpreted as containing the causal variant with some "coverage probability". Here, we use simulations to demonstrate that the coverage probabilities are over-conservative in most fine-mapping situations. We show that this is because fine-mapping data sets are not randomly selected from amongst all causal variants, but from amongst causal variants with larger effect sizes. We present a method to re-estimate the coverage of credible sets using rapid simulations based on the observed, or estimated, SNP correlation structure, we call this the "adjusted coverage estimate". This is extended to find "adjusted credible sets", which are the smallest set of variants such that their adjusted coverage estimate meets the target coverage. We use our method to improve the resolution of a fine-mapping study of type 1 diabetes. We found that in 27 out of 39 associated genomic regions our method could reduce the number of potentially causal variants to consider for follow-up, and found that none of the 95% or 99% credible sets required the inclusion of more variants-a pattern matched in simulations of well powered GWAS. Crucially, our method requires only GWAS summary statistics and remains accurate when SNP correlations are estimated from a large reference panel. Using our method to improve the resolution of fine-mapping studies will enable more efficient expenditure of resources in the follow-up process of annotating the variants in the credible set to determine the implicated genes and pathways in human diseases.

Genetic drivers of cerebral blood flow dysfunction in TBI: a speculative synthesis

Cerebral autoregulatory dysfunction after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is strongly linked to poor global outcome in patients at 6 months after injury. However, our understanding of the drivers of this dysfunction is limited. Genetic variation among individuals within a population gives rise to single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that have the potential to influence a given patient's cerebrovascular response to an injury. Associations have been reported between a variety of genetic polymorphisms and global outcome in patients with TBI, but few studies have explored the association between genetic variants and cerebrovascular function after injury. In this Review, we explore polymorphisms that might play an important part in cerebral autoregulatory capacity after TBI. We outline a variety of SNPs, their biological substrates and their potential role in mediating cerebrovascular reactivity. A number of candidate polymorphisms exist in genes that are involved in myogenic, endothelial, metabolic and neurogenic vascular responses to injury. Furthermore, polymorphisms in genes involved in inflammation, the central autonomic response and cortical spreading depression might drive cerebrovascular reactivity. Identification of candidate genes involved in cerebral autoregulation after TBI provides a platform and rationale for further prospective investigation of the link between genetic polymorphisms and autoregulatory function.

A flexible and parallelizable approach to genome-wide polygenic risk scores

The heritability of most complex traits is driven by variants throughout the genome. Consequently, polygenic risk scores, which combine information on multiple variants genome-wide, have demonstrated improved accuracy in genetic risk prediction. We present a new two-step approach to constructing genome-wide polygenic risk scores from meta-GWAS summary statistics. Local linkage disequilibrium (LD) is adjusted for in Step 1, followed by, uniquely, long-range LD in Step 2. Our algorithm is highly parallelizable since block-wise analyses in Step 1 can be distributed across a high-performance computing cluster, and flexible, since sparsity and heritability are estimated within each block. Inference is obtained through a formal Bayesian variable selection framework, meaning final risk predictions are averaged over competing models. We compared our method to two alternative approaches: LDPred and lassosum using all seven traits in the Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium as well as meta-GWAS summaries for type 1 diabetes (T1D), coronary artery disease, and schizophrenia. Performance was generally similar across methods, although our framework provided more accurate predictions for T1D, for which there are multiple heterogeneous signals in regions of both short- and long-range LD. With sufficient compute resources, our method also allows the fastest runtimes.

Stochastic search and joint fine-mapping increases accuracy and identifies previously unreported associations in immune-mediated diseases

Thousands of genetic variants are associated with human disease risk, but linkage disequilibrium (LD) hinders fine-mapping the causal variants. Both lack of power, and joint tagging of two or more distinct causal variants by a single non-causal SNP, lead to inaccuracies in fine-mapping, with stochastic search more robust than stepwise. We develop a computationally efficient multinomial fine-mapping (MFM) approach that borrows information between diseases in a Bayesian framework. We show that MFM has greater accuracy than single disease analysis when shared causal variants exist, and negligible loss of precision otherwise. MFM analysis of six immune-mediated diseases reveals causal variants undetected in individual disease analysis, including in IL2RA where we confirm functional effects of multiple causal variants using allele-specific expression in sorted CD4⁺ T cells from genotype-selected individuals. MFM has the potential to increase fine-mapping resolution in related diseases enabling the identification of associated cellular and molecular phenotypes.

Genetic Influences on Patient-Oriented Outcomes in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Living Systematic Review of Non-Apolipoprotein E Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms

There is a growing literature on the impact of genetic variation on outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Whereas a substantial proportion of these publications have focused on the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene, several have explored the influence of other polymorphisms. We undertook a systematic review of the impact of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in non–apolipoprotein E (non-APOE) genes associated with patient outcomes in adult TBI). We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, and gray literature from inception to the beginning of August 2017 for studies of genetic variance in relation to patient outcomes in adult TBI. Sixty-eight articles were deemed eligible for inclusion into the systematic review. The SNPs described were in the following categories: neurotransmitter (NT) in 23, cytokine in nine, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in 12, mitochondrial genes in three, and miscellaneous SNPs in 21. All studies were based on small patient cohorts and suffered from potential bias. A range of SNPs associated with genes coding for monoamine NTs, BDNF, cytokines, and mitochondrial proteins have been reported to be associated with variation in global, neuropsychiatric, and behavioral outcomes. An analysis of the tissue, cellular, and subcellular location of the genes that harbored the SNPs studied showed that they could be clustered into blood–brain barrier associated, neuroprotective/regulatory, and neuropsychiatric/degenerative groups. Several small studies report that various NT, cytokine, and BDNF-related SNPs are associated with variations in global outcome at 6–12 months post-TBI. The association of these SNPs with neuropsychiatric and behavioral outcomes is less clear. A definitive assessment of role and effect size of genetic variation in these genes on outcome remains uncertain, but could be clarified by an adequately powered genome-wide association study with appropriate recording of outcomes.

A Bayesian approach to Mendelian randomisation with dependent instruments

Mendelian randomisation (MR) is a method for establishing causality between a risk factor and an outcome by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. In practice, the association between individual genetic variants and the risk factor is often weak, which may lead to a lack of precision in the MR and even biased MR estimates. Usually, the most significant variant within a genetic region is selected to represent the association with the risk factor, but there is no guarantee that this variant will be causal or that it will capture all of the genetic association within the region. It may be advantageous to use extra variants selected from the same region in the MR. The problem is to decide which variants to select. Rather than selecting a specific set of variants, we investigate the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to average the MR over all possible combinations of genetic variants. Our simulations demonstrate that the BMA version of MR outperforms classical estimation with many dependent variants and performs much better than an MR based on variants selected by penalised regression. In further simulations, we investigate robustness to violations in the model assumptions and demonstrate sensitivity to the inclusion of invalid instruments. The method is illustrated by applying it to an MR of the effect of body mass index on blood pressure using SNPs in the FTO gene.

Bayesian multiple logistic regression for case-control GWAS

Genetic variants in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are tested for disease association mostly using simple regression, one variant at a time. Standard approaches to improve power in detecting disease-associated SNPs use multiple regression with Bayesian variable selection in which a sparsity-enforcing prior on effect sizes is used to avoid overtraining and all effect sizes are integrated out for posterior inference. For binary traits, the logistic model has not yielded clear improvements over the linear model. For multi-SNP analysis, the logistic model required costly and technically challenging MCMC sampling to perform the integration. Here, we introduce the quasi-Laplace approximation to solve the integral and avoid MCMC sampling. We expect the logistic model to perform much better than multiple linear regression except when predicted disease risks are spread closely around 0.5, because only close to its inflection point can the logistic function be well approximated by a linear function. Indeed, in extensive benchmarks with simulated phenotypes and real genotypes, our Bayesian multiple LOgistic REgression method (B-LORE) showed considerable improvements (1) when regressing on many variants in multiple loci at heritabilities ≥ 0.4 and (2) for unbalanced case-control ratios. B-LORE also enables meta-analysis by approximating the likelihood functions of individual studies by multivariate normal distributions, using their means and covariance matrices as summary statistics. Our work should make sparse multiple logistic regression attractive also for other applications with binary target variables. B-LORE is freely available from: https://github.com/soedinglab/b-lore.

Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry

Chromosome 8q24 is a susceptibility locus for multiple cancers, including prostate cancer. Here we combine genetic data across the 8q24 susceptibility region from 71,535 prostate cancer cases and 52,935 controls of European ancestry to define the overall contribution of germline variation at 8q24 to prostate cancer risk. We identify 12 independent risk signals for prostate cancer (p < 4.28 × 10-15), including three risk variants that have yet to be reported. From a polygenic risk score (PRS) model, derived to assess the cumulative effect of risk variants at 8q24, men in the top 1% of the PRS have a 4-fold (95%CI = 3.62-4.40) greater risk compared to the population average. These 12 variants account for ~25% of what can be currently explained of the familial risk of prostate cancer by known genetic risk factors. These findings highlight the overwhelming contribution of germline variation at 8q24 on prostate cancer risk which has implications for population risk stratification.

From genome-wide associations to candidate causal variants by statistical fine-mapping

Advancing from statistical associations of complex traits with genetic markers to understanding the functional genetic variants that influence traits is often a complex process. Fine-mapping can select and prioritize genetic variants for further study, yet the multitude of analytical strategies and study designs makes it challenging to choose an optimal approach. We review the strengths and weaknesses of different fine-mapping approaches, emphasizing the main factors that affect performance. Topics include interpreting results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the role of linkage disequilibrium, statistical fine-mapping approaches, trans-ethnic studies, genomic annotation and data integration, and other analysis and design issues.

Approaches and advances in the genetic causes of autoimmune disease and their implications

Genome-wide association studies are transformative in revealing the polygenetic basis of common diseases, with autoimmune diseases leading the charge. Although the field is just over 10 years old, advances in understanding the underlying mechanistic pathways of these conditions, which result from a dense multifactorial blend of genetic, developmental and environmental factors, have already been informative, including insights into therapeutic possibilities. Nevertheless, the challenge of identifying the actual causal genes and pathways and their biological effects on altering disease risk remains for many identified susceptibility regions. It is this fundamental knowledge that will underpin the revolution in patient stratification, the discovery of therapeutic targets and clinical trial design in the next 20 years. Here we outline recent advances in analytical and phenotyping approaches and the emergence of large cohorts with standardized gene-expression data and other phenotypic data that are fueling a bounty of discovery and improved understanding of human physiology.

Fine-mapping of prostate cancer susceptibility loci in a large meta-analysis identifies candidate causal variants

Prostate cancer is a polygenic disease with a large heritable component. A number of common, low-penetrance prostate cancer risk loci have been identified through GWAS. Here we apply the Bayesian multivariate variable selection algorithm JAM to fine-map 84 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, using summary data from a large European ancestry meta-analysis. We observe evidence for multiple independent signals at 12 regions and 99 risk signals overall. Only 15 original GWAS tag SNPs remain among the catalogue of candidate variants identified; the remainder are replaced by more likely candidates. Biological annotation of our credible set of variants indicates significant enrichment within promoter and enhancer elements, and transcription factor-binding sites, including AR, ERG and FOXA1. In 40 regions at least one variant is colocalised with an eQTL in prostate cancer tissue. The refined set of candidate variants substantially increase the proportion of familial relative risk explained by these known susceptibility regions, which highlights the importance of fine-mapping studies and has implications for clinical risk profiling.

The MR-Base platform supports systematic causal inference across the human phenome

Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used to infer causal relationships between phenotypes, using a strategy known as 2-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) and bypassing the need for individual-level data. However, 2SMR methods are evolving rapidly and GWAS results are often insufficiently curated, undermining efficient implementation of the approach. We therefore developed MR-Base (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.mrbase.org">http://www.mrbase.org</ext-link>): a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR. The software includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions. The database currently comprises 11 billion single nucleotide polymorphism-trait associations from 1673 GWAS and is updated on a regular basis. Integrating data with software ensures more rigorous application of hypothesis-driven analyses and allows millions of potential causal relationships to be efficiently evaluated in phenome-wide association studies.

The MR-Base platform supports systematic causal inference across the human phenome

Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used to infer causal relationships between phenotypes, using a strategy known as 2-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) and bypassing the need for individual-level data. However, 2SMR methods are evolving rapidly and GWAS results are often insufficiently curated, undermining efficient implementation of the approach. We therefore developed MR-Base (http://www.mrbase.org): a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR. The software includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions. The database currently comprises 11 billion single nucleotide polymorphism-trait associations from 1673 GWAS and is updated on a regular basis. Integrating data with software ensures more rigorous application of hypothesis-driven analyses and allows millions of potential causal relationships to be efficiently evaluated in phenome-wide association studies.

Determining Genetic Causal Variants Through Multivariate Regression Using Mixture Model Penalty

With the availability of high-throughput sequencing data, identification of genetic causal variants accurately requires the efficient incorporation of function annotation data into the optimization routine. This motivates the need for development of novel methods for genome wide association studies with special focus on fine-mapping capabilities. A penalty function method that is simple to implement and capable of integrating functional annotation information into the estimation procedure, is proposed in this work. The idea is to use the prior distribution of the effect sizes explicitly as a penalty function. The estimates obtained are shown to be better correlated with the true effect sizes (in comparison with a few existing techniques). An increase in the positive and negative predictive value is demonstrated using Hapgen2 simulated data.

Prospects of Fine-Mapping Trait-Associated Genomic Regions by Using Summary Statistics from Genome-wide Association Studies

During the past few years, various novel statistical methods have been developed for fine-mapping with the use of summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Although these approaches require information about the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between variants, there has not been a comprehensive evaluation of how estimation of the LD structure from reference genotype panels performs in comparison with that from the original individual-level GWAS data. Using population genotype data from Finland and the UK Biobank, we show here that a reference panel of 1,000 individuals from the target population is adequate for a GWAS cohort of up to 10,000 individuals, whereas smaller panels, such as those from the 1000 Genomes Project, should be avoided. We also show, both theoretically and empirically, that the size of the reference panel needs to scale with the GWAS sample size; this has important consequences for the application of these methods in ongoing GWAS meta-analyses and large biobank studies. We conclude by providing software tools and by recommending practices for sharing LD information to more efficiently exploit summary statistics in genetics research.

BAYESIAN LARGE-SCALE MULTIPLE REGRESSION WITH SUMMARY STATISTICS FROM GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES

Bayesian methods for large-scale multiple regression provide attractive approaches to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). For example, they can estimate heritability of complex traits, allowing for both polygenic and sparse models; and by incorporating external genomic data into the priors, they can increase power and yield new biological insights. However, these methods require access to individual genotypes and phenotypes, which are often not easily available. Here we provide a framework for performing these analyses without individual-level data. Specifically, we introduce a "Regression with Summary Statistics" (RSS) likelihood, which relates the multiple regression coefficients to univariate regression results that are often easily available. The RSS likelihood requires estimates of correlations among covariates (SNPs), which also can be obtained from public databases. We perform Bayesian multiple regression analysis by combining the RSS likelihood with previously proposed prior distributions, sampling posteriors by Markov chain Monte Carlo. In a wide range of simulations RSS performs similarly to analyses using the individual data, both for estimating heritability and detecting associations. We apply RSS to a GWAS of human height that contains 253,288 individuals typed at 1.06 million SNPs, for which analyses of individual-level data are practically impossible. Estimates of heritability (52%) are consistent with, but more precise, than previous results using subsets of these data. We also identify many previously unreported loci that show evidence for association with height in our analyses. Software is available at https://github.com/stephenslab/rss.