Assessing the cost-effectiveness of drug and lifestyle intervention following opportunistic screening for pre-diabetes in primary care

Cost-Effectiveness of Population Screening Programs for Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Almost all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have instated a program to control and manage non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Population screening is an integral component of this strategy and requires a substantial chunk of investment. Therefore, testing the screening program for economic along with clinical effectiveness is essential. There is significant proof of the benefits of incorporating economic evidence in health decision-making globally, although evidence from LMICs in NCD prevention is scanty. This systematic review aims to consolidate and synthesize economic evidence of screening programs for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes from LMICs. The study protocol is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021275806). The review includes articles from English and Chinese languages. An initial search retrieved a total of 2,644 potentially relevant publications. Finally, 15 articles (13 English and 2 Chinese reports) were included and scrutinized in detail. We found 6 economic evaluations of interventions targeting cardiovascular diseases, 5 evaluations of diabetes interventions, and 4 were combined interventions, i.e., screening of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. The study showcases numerous innovative screening programs that have been piloted, such as using mobile technology for screening, integrating non-communicable disease screening with existing communicable disease screening programs, and using community health workers for screening. Our review reveals that context is of utmost importance while considering any intervention, i.e., depending on the available resources, cost-effectiveness may vary—screening programs can be made universal or targeted just for the high-risk population.

Assessing the implementation of a clinical decision support tool in primary care for diabetes prevention: a qualitative interview study using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Science

BACKGROUND

In this paper we describe the use of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to study implementation of a web-based, point-of-care, EHR-linked clinical decision support (CDS) tool designed to identify and provide care recommendations for adults with prediabetes (Pre-D CDS).

METHODS

As part of a large NIH-funded clinic-randomized trial, we identified a convenience sample of interview participants from 22 primary care clinics in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin that were randomly allocated to receive or not receive a web-based EHR-integrated prediabetes CDS intervention. Participants included 11 clinicians, 6 rooming staff, and 7 nurse or clinic managers recruited by study staff to participate in telephone interviews conducted by an expert in qualitative methods. Interviews were recorded and transcribed, and data analysis was conducted using a constructivist version of grounded theory.

RESULTS

Implementing a prediabetes CDS tool into primary care clinics was useful and well received. The intervention was integrated with clinic workflows, supported primary care clinicians in clearly communicating prediabetes risk and management options with patients, and in identifying actionable care opportunities. The main barriers to CDS use were time and competing priorities. Finally, while the implementation process worked well, opportunities remain in engaging the care team more broadly in CDS use.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of CDS tools for engaging patients and providers in care improvement opportunities for prediabetes is a promising and potentially effective strategy in primary care settings. A workflow that incorporates the whole care team in the use of such tools may optimize the implementation of CDS tools like these in primary care settings. Trial registration Name of the registry: Clinicaltrial.gov.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02759055. Date of registration: 05/03/2016. URL of trial registry record: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02759055 Prospectively registered.

Microsimulation Modelling in Food Policy: A Scoping Review of Methodological Aspects

Food policies for the prevention and management of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been increasingly relying on microsimulation models (MSMs) to assess effectiveness. Given the increased uptake of MSMs, this review aims to provide an overview of the characteristics of MSMs that link diets with NCDs. A comprehensive review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Knowledge. Inclusion criteria were: (i) findings from a MSM, (ii) diets, foods or nutrients as main exposure of interest, (iii) NCDs, such as overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke or cancer as disease outcome for impact assessment. This review included information from 33 studies using MSM in analyzing diet and diverse food policies on NCDs. Hereby, most models employed stochastic, discrete-time, dynamic microsimulation techniques to calculate anticipated (cost-)effectiveness of strategies based on food pricing, food reformulation or dietary (lifestyle) interventions. Currently available models differ in the methodology used for quantifying the effect of the dietary changes on disease, and in the method for modelling disease incidence and mortality. However, all studies provided evidence that the models were sufficiently capturing the close-to-reality situation by justifying their choice of model parameters and validating externally their modelled disease incidence and mortality with observed or predicted event data. With the increasing use of various MSMs, between-model comparisons, facilitated by open access models and good reporting practices, would be important for judging model's accuracy, leading to continued improvement in the methodologies for developing and applying MSMs, and subsequently a better understanding of the results by policymakers.

A STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE

Given the advancement in the application of microsimulation modelling in evaluating food policies and measuring diet-related disease burdens, the present scoping review serves as an exercise to inform future modelling, hereby highlighting the need for transparency in model development, application and dissemination to advance and safeguard accuracy and relevance in modelling efforts.

Economic benefit of dietetic-nutritional treatment in the multidisciplinary primary care team

Introduction

Chronic diseases and aging are placing an ever increasing burden on healthcare services worldwide. Nutritional counselling is a priority for primary care because it has shown substantial cost savings. This review aims to evaluate the evidence of the cost-effectiveness of nutritional care in primary care provided by health professionals. A literature search was conducted using PubMed/MEDLINE between January 2000 and February 2019. The review included thirty-six randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews conducted in healthy people and people with obesity, type-2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular risk or malnutrition. All the RCTs and reviews showed that nutritional intervention led by dietitians-nutritionists in people with obesity or cardiovascular risk factors was cost-effective. Dietary interventions led by nurses were cost-effective in people who needed to lose weight but not in people at high cardiovascular risk. Some dietary changes led by a primary care team in people with diabetes were cost-effective. Incorporating dietitians-nutritionists into primary care settings, or increasing their presence, would give people access to the healthcare professionals who are best qualified to carry out nutritional treatment, and may be the most cost-effective intervention in terms of health expenditure. Notwithstanding the limitations described, this review suggests that incorporating dietitians-nutritionists into primary health care as part of the multidisciplinary team could be regarded as an investment in health. Even so, more research is required to confirm the conclusions.

'I could have made those changes years earlier': experiences and characteristics associated with receiving a prediabetes diagnosis among individuals recently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Improving diet quality is key in preventing this progression, yet little is known about the characteristics of individuals with prediabetes or the nutrition care they receive.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to identify characteristics and experiences associated with receiving a prediabetes diagnosis prior to developing T2D.

METHODS

A mixed methods study encompassed a quantitative subanalysis of participants with newly diagnosed T2D from The 3D Study, and semi-structured telephone interviews with a subsample of participants who were previously diagnosed with prediabetes. Interviews were thematically analysed and survey data synthesized using SPSS statistical software.

RESULTS

Of the 225 study participants, 100 individuals were previously diagnosed with prediabetes and 120 participants were not. Those with prediabetes were less likely to be smokers (P = 0.022) and more likely to be satisfied with seeing a dietitian (P = 0.031) than those without a previous prediabetes diagnosis. A total of 20 participants completed semi-structured interviews. Thematic analysis revealed three themes: (i) experiencing a prediabetes diagnosis; (ii) receiving nutrition care during prediabetes and (iii) reflecting on the experience of receiving care for prediabetes versus T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

There are gaps in the current management of prediabetes in Australia. Low rates of prediabetes diagnosis and an ambiguous experience of receiving this diagnosis suggest an area of health service improvement. With no difference in diet quality between individuals with and without a previous prediabetes diagnosis, the nutrition care during prediabetes may be more important than the diagnosis itself in delaying the onset of T2D.

Economic Modelling of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Literature Review to Inform Conceptual Model Design

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive condition that leads to irreversible damage to the kidneys and is associated with an increased incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality. As novel interventions become available, estimates of economic and clinical outcomes are needed to guide payer reimbursement decisions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to systematically review published economic models that simulated long-term outcomes of kidney disease to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations of CKD treatments.

METHODS

The review was conducted across four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane library and EconLit) and health technology assessment agency websites. Relevant information on each model was extracted. Transition and mortality rates were also extracted to assess the choice of model parameterisation on disease progression by simulating patient's time with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and time to ESRD/death. The incorporation of cardiovascular disease in a population with CKD was qualitatively assessed across identified models.

RESULTS

The search identified 101 models that met the criteria for inclusion. Models were classified into CKD models (n = 13), diabetes models with nephropathy (n = 48), ESRD-only models (n = 33) and cardiovascular models with CKD components (n = 7). Typically, published models utilised frameworks based on either (estimated or measured) glomerular filtration rate (GFR) or albuminuria, in line with clinical guideline recommendations for the diagnosis and monitoring of CKD. Generally, two core structures were identified, either a microsimulation model involving albuminuria or a Markov model utilising CKD stages and a linear GFR decline (although further variations on these model structures were also identified). Analysis of parameter variability in CKD disease progression suggested that mean time to ESRD/death was relatively consistent across model types (CKD models 28.2 years; diabetes models with nephropathy 24.6 years). When evaluating time with ESRD, CKD models predicted extended ESRD survival over diabetes models with nephropathy (mean time with ESRD 8.0 vs. 3.8 years).

DISCUSSION

This review provides an overview of how CKD is typically modelled. While common frameworks were identified, model structure varied, and no single model type was used for the modelling of patients with CKD. In addition, many of the current methods did not explicitly consider patient heterogeneity or underlying disease aetiology, except for diabetes. However, the variability of individual patients' GFR and albuminuria trajectories perhaps provides rationale for a model structure designed around the prediction of individual patients' GFR trajectories. Frameworks of future CKD models should be informed and justified based on clinical rationale and availability of data to ensure validity of model results. In addition, further clinical and observational research is warranted to provide a better understanding of prognostic factors and data sources to improve economic modelling accuracy in CKD.

The cost-effectiveness of metformin in pre-diabetics: a systematic literature review of health economic evaluations

Objectives: Our aim was to systematically identify and appraise cost-effectiveness studies of metformin in prediabetic subjects.Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted and reported according to standard guidlines. The search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) presentation database and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) and Center for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) registries. All cost-effectiveness studies assessing metformin in prediabetic patients were included.Results: Twenty-three reports were included. Metformin and intensive lifestyle changes (ILC) interventions were always cost-effective compared to placebo. ILC was cost-effective and sometimes dominant compared to metformin. Metformin was cost-saving compared to ILC in the short and medium-term. Although, in the long term, metformin was more expensive than ILC in terms of direct medical costs, when indirect non-medical costs are included, metformin less expensive than ILC. One study reported that for patients with Body Mass Index (BMI) higher than 30 kg/m2, metformin is a cost-effective strategy compared to placebo and ILC. However, this finding was not confirmed by other retrieved studies.Conclusion: ILC is cost-effective compared to metformin and, both of them are cost-effective compared to placebo. Metformin may be cost-saving in the short- to medium-term and possibly in the long-term.

Study protocol for a multicentre, controlled non-randomised trial: benefits of exercise physiology services for type 2 diabetes (BEST)

INTRODUCTION

Controlled trials support the efficacy of exercise as a treatment modality for chronic conditions, yet effectiveness of real-world Exercise Physiology services is yet to be determined. This study will investigate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of services provided by Accredited Exercise Physiologists (AEPs) for clients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in clinical practice.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A non-randomised, opportunistic control, longitudinal design trial will be conducted at ten Exercise Physiology Clinics. Participants will be individuals with T2D attending one of the Exercise Physiology Clinics for routine AEP services (exercise prescription and counselling) (intervention) or individuals with T2D not receiving AEP services (usual care) (control). The experimental period will be 6 months with measurements performed at baseline and at 6 months. Primary outcome measures will be glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), resting brachial blood pressure (BP), body mass index, waist circumference, 6 min walk test, grip strength, 30 s sit to stand, Medical Outcomes Short-Form 36-Item Health Survey and Active Australia Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes will be medication usage, out-of-pocket expenses, incidental, billable and non-billable health professional encounters and work missed through ill health. Healthcare utilisation will be measured for 12 months prior to, during and 12 months after trial participation using linked data from Medicare Benefits Schedule and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study is a multicentre trial comprising: University of Tasmania, University of New South Wales Lifestyle Clinic, University of Canberra, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute (covered under the ethics approval of University of Tasmania Health and Medical Ethics Committee H0015266), Deakin University (Approval number: 2016-187), Australian Catholic University (2016-304R), Queensland University of Technology (1600000049), University of South Australia (0000035306), University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/8282) and Canberra Hospital (ETH.8.17.170). The findings of this clinical trial will be communicated via peer-reviewed journal articles, conference presentations, social media and broadcast media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12616000264482.

Antifatigue Activity and Exercise Performance of Phenolic-Rich Extracts from Calendula officinalis, Ribes nigrum, and Vaccinium myrtillus

Calendula officinalis, Ribes nigrum, and Vaccinium myrtillus (CRV) possess a high phenolic compound content with excellent antioxidant activity. Dietary antioxidants can reduce exercise-induced oxidative stress. Consumption of large amounts of phenolic compounds is positively correlated with reduction in exercise-induced muscle damage. Research for natural products to improve exercise capacity, relieve fatigue, and accelerate fatigue alleviation is ongoing. Here, CRV containing a large total phenolic content (13.4 mg/g of CRV) demonstrated antioxidant activity. Ultra-performance liquid chromatography quantification revealed 1.95 ± 0.02 mg of salidroside in 1 g of CRV. In the current study, CRV were administered to mice for five weeks, and the antifatigue effect of CRV was evaluated using the forelimb grip strength test; weight-loaded swimming test; and measurement of fatigue-related biochemical indicators, such as blood lactate, ammonia, glucose, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and creatine kinase (CK) activity; and muscle and liver glycogen content. The results indicated that in CRV-treated mice, the forelimb grip strength significantly increased; weight-loaded swimming time prolonged; their lactate, ammonia, BUN, and CK activity decreased, and muscle and liver glucose and glycogen content increased compared with the vehicle group. Thus, CRV have antifatigue activity and can increase exercise tolerance.

Decision models of prediabetes populations: A systematic review

AIMS

With evidence supporting the use of preventive interventions for prediabetes populations and the use of novel biomarkers to stratify the risk of progression, there is a need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness across jurisdictions. Our aim is to summarize and assess the quality and validity of decision models and model-based economic evaluations of populations with prediabetes, to evaluate their potential use for the assessment of novel prevention strategies and to discuss the knowledge gaps, challenges and opportunities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, EconLit and NHS EED between 2000 and 2018 for studies reporting computer simulation models of the natural history of individuals with prediabetes and/or we used decision models to evaluate the impact of treatment strategies on these populations. Data were extracted following PRISMA guidelines and assessed using modelling checklists. Two reviewers independently assessed 50% of the titles and abstracts to determine whether a full text review was needed. Of these, 10% was assessed by each reviewer to cross-reference the decision to proceed to full review. Using a standardized form and double extraction, each of four reviewers extracted 50% of the identified studies.

RESULTS

A total of 29 published decision models that simulate prediabetes populations were identified. Studies showed large variations in the definition of prediabetes and model structure. The inclusion of complications in prediabetes (n = 8) and type 2 diabetes (n = 17) health states also varied. A minority of studies simulated annual changes in risk factors (glycaemia, HbA1c, blood pressure, BMI, lipids) as individuals progressed in the models (n = 7) and accounted for heterogeneity among individuals with prediabetes (n = 7).

CONCLUSIONS

Current prediabetes decision models have considerable limitations in terms of their quality and validity and do not allow evaluation of stratified strategies using novel biomarkers, highlighting a clear need for more comprehensive prediabetes decision models.

Cost-effectiveness of a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention intervention in medically underserved rural areas

Background

Rural women experience health disparities in terms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk compared to urban women. Cost-effective CVD-prevention programs are needed for this population. The objective of this study was to conduct cost analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of the Strong Hearts, Healthy Communities (SHHC) program compared to a control program in terms of change in CVD risk factors, including body weight and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

Methods

Sixteen medically underserved rural towns in Montana and New York were randomly assigned to SHHC, a six-month twice-weekly experiential learning lifestyle program focused predominantly on diet and physical activity behaviors (n = 101), or a monthly healthy lifestyle education-only control program (n = 93). Females who were sedentary, overweight or obese, and aged 40 years or older were enrolled. The cost analysis calculated the total and per participant resource costs as well as participants’ costs for the SHHC and control programs. In the intermediate health outcomes CEAs, the incremental costs were compared to the incremental changes in the outcomes. The QALY CEA compares the incremental costs and effectiveness of a national SHHC intervention for a hypothetical cohort of 2.2 million women compared to the status quo alternative.

Results

The resource cost of SHHC was $775 per participant. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the payer’s perspective was $360 per kg of weight loss. Over a 10-year time horizon, to avert per QALY lost SHHC is estimated to cost $238,271 from the societal perspective, but only $62,646 from the healthcare sector perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses show considerable uncertainty in the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Conclusions

A national SHHC intervention is likely to be cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds based on guidelines for federal regulatory impact analysis, but may not be at commonly used lower threshold values. However, it is possible that program costs in rural areas are higher than previously studied programs in more urban areas, due to a lack of staff and physical activity resources as well as  availability for partnerships with existing organizations.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02499731, registered on July 16, 2015.

Food insecurity is associated with prediabetes and dietary differences in U.S. adults aged 20-39

Food insecurity has been linked with lifestyle and metabolic health differences in varying populations. We sought to assess how food insecurity may have been associated with prediabetes and dietary differences in a relatively young subset of U.S. adults. We examined data from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003-2014) participants aged 20-39 with complete data regarding food insecurity and metabolic laboratory assessment. We also assessed macronutrient intake and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) usage. All logistic regression models controlled for age, sex, and household income. Among 3684 included participants, food insecurity had 19.12% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 16.16, 22.08) prevalence. Food-insecure participants had prediabetes/diabetes prevalence of 37.36% (95%CI: 30.47, 44.25) and higher odds of having prediabetes/diabetes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.00, 1.85). Food-insecure adults has significantly different macronutrient intake: higher carbohydrates (p = 0.02), less protein (p = 0.01), and less total fat (p = 0.04) consumption. Food-insecure adults who used SNAP (compared to food-insecure adults who did not use SNAP) had higher odds of having metabolic syndrome (ATP-III MetS) (aOR = 2.56, 95%CI: 1.27, 5.22). We found that food insecurity was relatively prevalent in this subset of younger U.S. adults. We showed that food-insecure participants had increased prevalence and odds of prediabetes. These associations were also correlated with dietary differences.

Review of Metformin Use for Type 2 Diabetes Prevention

CONTEXT

Prediabetes is prevalent and significantly increases lifetime risk of progression to type 2 diabetes. This review summarizes the evidence surrounding metformin use for type 2 diabetes prevention.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Articles published between 1998 and 2017 examining metformin use for the primary indication of diabetes prevention available on MEDLINE.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Forty articles met inclusion criteria and were summarized into four general categories: (1) RCTs of metformin use for diabetes prevention (n=7 and n=2 follow-up analyses); (2) observational analyses examining metformin use in heterogeneous subgroups of patients with prediabetes (n=9 from the Diabetes Prevention Program, n=1 from the biguanides and the prevention of the risk of obesity [BIGPRO] trial); (3) observational analyses examining cost effectiveness of metformin use for diabetes prevention (n=11 from the Diabetes Prevention Program, n=1 from the Indian Diabetes Prevention Program); and (4) real-world assessments of metformin eligibility or use for diabetes prevention (n=9). Metformin was associated with reduced relative risk of incident diabetes, with the strongest evidence for use in those at highest risk (i.e., aged <60 years, BMI ≥35, and women with histories of gestational diabetes). Metformin was also deemed cost effective in 11 economic analyses. Recent studies highlighted low rates of metformin use for diabetes prevention in real-world settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Two decades of evidence support metformin use for diabetes prevention among higher-risk patients. However, metformin is not widely used in real-world practice, and enhancing the translation of this evidence to real-world practice has important implications for patients, providers, and payers.

ATLS Hypovolemic Shock Classification by Prediction of Blood Loss in Rats Using Regression Models

In our previous study, our input data set consisted of 78 rats, the blood loss in percent as a dependent variable, and 11 independent variables (heart rate, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, pulse pressure, respiration rate, temperature, perfusion index, lactate concentration, shock index, and new index (lactate concentration/perfusion)). The machine learning methods for multicategory classification were applied to a rat model in acute hemorrhage to predict the four Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) hypovolemic shock classes for triage in our previous study. However, multicategory classification is much more difficult and complicated than binary classification. We introduce a simple approach for classifying ATLS hypovolaemic shock class by predicting blood loss in percent using support vector regression and multivariate linear regression (MLR). We also compared the performance of the classification models using absolute and relative vital signs. The accuracies of support vector regression and MLR models with relative values by predicting blood loss in percent were 88.5% and 84.6%, respectively. These were better than the best accuracy of 80.8% of the direct multicategory classification using the support vector machine one-versus-one model in our previous study for the same validation data set. Moreover, the simple MLR models with both absolute and relative values could provide possibility of the future clinical decision support system for ATLS classification. The perfusion index and new index were more appropriate with relative changes than absolute values.

Preventing type 2 diabetes: systematic review of studies of cost-effectiveness of lifestyle programmes and metformin, with and without screening, for pre-diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Explore the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions and metformin in reducing subsequent incidence of type 2 diabetes, both alone and in combination with a screening programme to identify high-risk individuals.

DESIGN

Systematic review of economic evaluations.

DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Database searches (Embase, Medline, PreMedline, NHS EED) and citation tracking identified economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions or metformin alone or in combination with screening programmes in people at high risk of developing diabetes. The International Society for Pharmaco-economics and Outcomes Research's Questionnaire to Assess Relevance and Credibility of Modelling Studies for Informing Healthcare Decision Making was used to assess study quality.

RESULTS

27 studies were included; all had evaluated lifestyle interventions and 12 also evaluated metformin. Primary studies exhibited considerable heterogeneity in definitions of pre-diabetes and intensity and duration of lifestyle programmes. Lifestyle programmes and metformin appeared to be cost effective in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals (median incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £7490/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and £8428/QALY, respectively) but economic estimates varied widely between studies. Intervention-only programmes were in general more cost effective than programmes that also included a screening component. The longer the period evaluated, the more cost-effective interventions appeared. In the few studies that evaluated other economic considerations, budget impact of prevention programmes was moderate (0.13%-0.2% of total healthcare budget), financial payoffs were delayed (by 9-14 years) and impact on incident cases of diabetes was limited (0.1%-1.6% reduction). There was insufficient evidence to answer the question of (1) whether lifestyle programmes are more cost effective than metformin or (2) whether low-intensity lifestyle interventions are more cost effective than the more intensive lifestyle programmes that were tested in trials.

CONCLUSIONS

The economics of preventing diabetes are complex. There is some evidence that diabetes prevention programmes are cost effective, but the evidence base to date provides few clear answers regarding design of prevention programmes because of differences in denominator populations, definitions, interventions and modelling assumptions.

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes.

DESIGN

A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older.

PARTICIPANTS

Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits.

RESULTS

In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020.

DISCUSSION

Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence.

Costs of diabetes medication among male former elite athletes in later life

AIMS

Regular physical activity plays a major role, in both prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes. Less is known whether vigorous physical activity during young adulthood is associated with costs of diabetes medication in later life. The aim of this study is to evaluate this question.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 1314 former elite-class athletes and 860 matched controls. The former athletes were divided into three groups based on their active career sport: endurance, mixed and power sports. Information on purchases of diabetes medication between 1995 and 2009 was obtained from the drug purchase register of the Finnish Social Insurance Institution.

RESULTS

The total cost of diabetes medication per person year was significantly lower among the former endurance (mean 81 € [95% CI 33-151 €]) and mixed group athletes (mean 272 € [95% CI 181-388 €]) compared with the controls (mean 376 € [95% CI 284-485 €]), (p < 0.001 and p = 0.045, respectively). Of the former endurance athletes, 0.4% used insulin, while 5.2% of the controls used insulin (p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

A career as former endurance, sprint, jumper or team game athlete seems to reduce the costs of diabetes medication in later life.

The costs of diabetes among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: projections of lost productive life years (PLYs), lost personal income, lost taxation revenue, extra welfare payments and lost gross domestic product from Health&WealthMOD2030

OBJECTIVES

To project the number of people aged 45-64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030.

DESIGN

A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45-64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government. Cross-sectional outputs of a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030) which used the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009 as a base population and integrated outputs from two microsimulation models (Static Incomes Model and Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model), Treasury's population and labour force projections, and chronic disease trends data.

SETTING

Australian population aged 45-64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Lost PLYs, lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue, lost GDP.

RESULTS

18 100 people are out of the labour force due to diabetes in 2015, increasing to 21 400 in 2030 (18% increase). National costs consisted of a loss of $A467 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to $A807 million in 2030 (73% increase). For the government, extra annual welfare payments increased from $A311 million in 2015 to $A350 million in 2030 (13% increase); and lost annual taxation revenue increased from $A102 million in 2015 to $A166 million in 2030 (63% increase). A loss of $A2.1 billion in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to $A2.9 billion in 2030 attributable to diabetes through its impact on PLYs.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals incur significant costs of diabetes through lost PLYs and lost income in addition to disease burden through human suffering and healthcare costs. The government incurs extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue and lost GDP, along with direct healthcare costs.

Resveratrol and exercise

Although it is recommended for a healthy lifestyle, moderate exercise is known to lead to oxidative stress, inflammation and muscle injury. Hence there are efforts to develop dietary strategies to counter the oxidative stress caused by physical activity. Recently, there has been an interest in the capability of resveratrol (RES) to modulate physical performance and prevent oxidative stress. Despite the inconsistency among reports regarding the topic, it has been suggested that RES delays fatigue by hindering lipid peroxidation. It is hypothesized that RES administration produces favorable effects on hepatic cell rejuvenation, exerts a regulatory effect on glucose metabolism, and preserves liver glycogen reserves that are diminished during physical activity. Consequently, there is a growing interest in the association between RES and exercise. The aim of the current review is to interpret the association between RES and exercise.

Effects of a Health-Partner Intervention on Cardiovascular Risk

BACKGROUND

Lifestyle modifications are first-line measures for cardiovascular disease prevention. Whether lifestyle intervention also preserves cardiovascular health is less clear. Our study examined the role of a Health Partner-administered lifestyle intervention on metrics of ideal cardiovascular health.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 711 university employees (48±11 years; 66% women, 72% Caucasian/22.5% African Americans) enrolled in a program that promoted healthier lifestyles at Emory University (Atlanta, GA). Anthropometric, laboratory, and physical activity measurements were performed at baseline and at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years of follow-up. Results were utilized by the Health Partner to generate a personalized plan aimed at meeting ideal health metrics. Compared to baseline, at each of the 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year follow-up visits, systolic blood pressure was lower by 3.6, 4.6, and 3.3 mm Hg (P<0.001), total cholesterol decreased by 5.3, 6.5, and 6.4 mg/dL (P<0.001), body mass index declined by 0.33, 0.45, and 0.38 kg/m² (P<0.001), and the percentage of smokers decreased by 1.3%, 3.5%, and 3.5% (P<0.01), respectively. Changes were greater in those with greater abnormalities at baseline. Finally, the American Heart Association "Life's Simple 7" ideal cardiovascular health score increased by 0.28, 0.40, and 0.33 at 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years, respectively, compared to baseline visit.

CONCLUSIONS

A personalized, goal-directed Health Partner intervention significantly improved the cardiometabolic risk profile and metrics of cardiovascular health. These effects were evident at 6 months following enrollment and were sustained for 2 years. Whether the Health Partner intervention improves long-term morbidity and mortality and is cost-effective needs further investigation.

Choosing an epidemiological model structure for the economic evaluation of non-communicable disease public health interventions

Non-communicable diseases are the leading global causes of mortality and morbidity. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to increasing calls for a greater emphasis to be placed on prevention. In order for decisionmakers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of each prevention option available. This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Through a novel discussion of the pros and cons of model structures and examples of their application to public health interventions, it suggests that individual-level models may be better than population-level models for estimating the effects of population heterogeneity. Furthermore, model structures allowing for interactions between populations, their environment, and time are often better suited to complex multifaceted interventions. Other influences on the choice of model structure include time and available resources, and the availability and relevance of previously developed models. This review will help guide modelers in the emerging field of public health economic modeling of non-communicable diseases.

Does diabetes prevention pay for itself? Evaluation of the M.O.B.I.L.I.S. program for obese persons

In response to the growing burden of obesity, public primary prevention programs against obesity have been widely recommended. Several studies have estimated the cost-effectiveness of diabetes-prevention trials for different countries. Nevertheless, it is still controversial if prevention conducted in more real-world settings and among people with increased risk but not yet exhibiting increased glucose tolerance can be a cost-saving strategy to cope with the obesity epidemic. We examine this question in a simulation model based on the results of the M.O.B.I.L.I.S program, a German lifestyle intervention to reduce obesity, which is directed on the high-risk group of people who are already obese. The contribution of this paper is the use of 4-year follow-up data on the intervention group and a comparison with a control group formed by SOEP respondents as inputs in a Markov model of the long-term cost savings through this intervention due to the prevention of type 2 diabetes. We show that from the point of view of a health insurer, these programs can pay for themselves.

Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluation Studies

Objective. To summarize key findings of economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions for the primary prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in high-risk subjects. Methods. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed original studies published since January 2009 in English, French, and Spanish. Eligible studies were identified through relevant databases including PubMed, Medline, National Health Services Economic Evaluation, CINHAL, EconLit, Web of sciences, EMBASE, and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature. Studies targeting obesity were also included. Data were extracted using a standardized method. The BMJ checklist was used to assess study quality. The heterogeneity of lifestyle interventions precluded a meta-analysis. Results. Overall, 20 studies were retained, including six focusing on obesity control. Seven were conducted within trials and 13 using modeling techniques. T2D prevention by physical activity or diet or both proved cost-effective according to accepted thresholds, except for five inconclusive studies, three on diabetes prevention and two on obesity control. Most studies exhibited limitations in reporting results, primarily with regard to generalizability and justification of selected sensitivity parameters. Conclusion. This confirms that lifestyle interventions for the primary prevention of diabetes are cost-effective. Such interventions should be further promoted as sound investment in the fight against diabetes.

Are brief interventions to increase physical activity cost-effective? A systematic review

Objective

To determine whether brief interventions promoting physical activity are cost-effective in primary care or community settings.

Design

Systematic review of economic evaluations.

Methods and data sources

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, EconLit, SPORTDiscus, PEDro, the Cochrane library, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry up to 20 August 2014. Web of Knowledge was used for cross-reference search. We included studies investigating the cost-effectiveness of brief interventions, as defined by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, promoting physical activity in primary care or the community. Methodological quality was assessed using Drummond's checklist for economic evaluations. Data were extracted from individual studies fulfilling selection criteria using a standardised pro forma. Comparisons of cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratios were made between studies.

Results

Of 1840 identified publications, 13 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria describing 14 brief interventions. Studies varied widely in the methods used, such as the perspective of economic analysis, intervention effects and outcome measures. The incremental cost of moving an inactive person to an active state, estimated for eight studies, ranged from £96 to £986. The cost-utility was estimated in nine studies compared with usual care and varied from £57 to £14 002 per quality-adjusted life year; dominant to £6500 per disability-adjusted life year; and £15 873 per life years gained.

Conclusions

Brief interventions promoting physical activity in primary care and the community are likely to be inexpensive compared with usual care. Given the commonly accepted thresholds, they appear to be cost-effective on the whole, although there is notable variation between studies.

The Michigan Model for Coronary Heart Disease in Type 2 Diabetes: Development and Validation

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a computer simulation model for coronary heart disease (CHD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) that reflects current medical and surgical treatments.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We modified the structure of the CHD submodel in the Michigan Model for Diabetes to allow for revascularization procedures before and after first myocardial infarction, for repeat myocardial infarctions and repeat revascularization procedures, and for congestive heart failure. Transition probabilities that reflect the direct effects of medical and surgical therapies on outcomes were derived from the literature and calibrated to recently published population-based epidemiologic studies and randomized controlled clinical trials. Monte Carlo techniques were used to implement a discrete-state and discrete-time multistate microsimulation model. Performance of the model was assessed using internal and external validation. Simple regression analysis (simulated outcome=b(0)+b(1)×published outcome) was used to evaluate the validation results.

RESULTS

For the 21 outcomes in the six studies used for internal validation, R(2) was 0.99, and the slope of the regression line was 0.98. For the 16 outcomes in the five studies used for external validation, R(2) was 0.81, and the slope was 0.84.

CONCLUSIONS

Our new computer simulation model predicted the progression of CHD in patients with T2DM and will be incorporated into the Michigan Model for Diabetes to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies to prevent and treat T2DM.

Economic Evaluation of Combined Diet and Physical Activity Promotion Programs to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes Among Persons at Increased Risk: A Systematic Review for the Community Preventive Services Task Force

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a highly prevalent and costly disease. Studies indicate that combined diet and physical activity promotion programs can prevent type 2 diabetes among persons at increased risk.

PURPOSE

To systematically evaluate the evidence on cost, cost-effectiveness, and cost-benefit estimates of diet and physical activity promotion programs.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science, EconLit, and CINAHL through 7 April 2015.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language studies from high-income countries that provided data on cost, cost-effectiveness, or cost-benefit ratios of diet and physical activity promotion programs with at least 2 sessions over at least 3 months delivered to persons at increased risk for type 2 diabetes.

DATA EXTRACTION

Dual abstraction and assessment of relevant study details.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Twenty-eight studies were included. Costs were expressed in 2013 U.S. dollars. The median program cost per participant was $653. Costs were lower for group-based programs (median, $417) and programs implemented in community or primary care settings (median, $424) than for the U.S. DPP (Diabetes Prevention Program) trial and the DPP Outcomes Study ($5881). Twenty-two studies assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the programs. From a health system perspective, 16 studies reported a median ICER of $13 761 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved. Group-based programs were more cost-effective (median, $1819 per QALY) than those that used individual sessions (median, $15 846 per QALY). No cost-benefit studies were identified.

LIMITATION

Information on recruitment costs and cost-effectiveness of translational programs implemented in community and primary care settings was limited.

CONCLUSION

Diet and physical activity promotion programs to prevent type 2 diabetes are cost-effective among persons at increased risk. Costs are lower when programs are delivered to groups in community or primary care settings.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None.

Therapeutic Use of Metformin in Prediabetes and Diabetes Prevention

People with elevated, non-diabetic, levels of blood glucose are at risk of progressing to clinical type 2 diabetes and are commonly termed 'prediabetic'. The term prediabetes usually refers to high-normal fasting plasma glucose (impaired fasting glucose) and/or plasma glucose 2 h following a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (impaired glucose tolerance). Current US guidelines consider high-normal HbA1c to also represent a prediabetic state. Individuals with prediabetic levels of dysglycaemia are already at elevated risk of damage to the microvasculature and macrovasculature, resembling the long-term complications of diabetes. Halting or reversing the progressive decline in insulin sensitivity and β-cell function holds the key to achieving prevention of type 2 diabetes in at-risk subjects. Lifestyle interventions aimed at inducing weight loss, pharmacologic treatments (metformin, thiazolidinediones, acarbose, basal insulin and drugs for weight loss) and bariatric surgery have all been shown to reduce the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes in prediabetic subjects. However, lifestyle interventions are difficult for patients to maintain and the weight loss achieved tends to be regained over time. Metformin enhances the action of insulin in liver and skeletal muscle, and its efficacy for delaying or preventing the onset of diabetes has been proven in large, well-designed, randomised trials, such as the Diabetes Prevention Program and other studies. Decades of clinical use have demonstrated that metformin is generally well-tolerated and safe. We have reviewed in detail the evidence base supporting the therapeutic use of metformin for diabetes prevention.

A Randomised Controlled Trial to Delay or Prevent Type 2 Diabetes after Gestational Diabetes: Walking for Exercise and Nutrition to Prevent Diabetes for You

Aims. To develop a program to support behaviour changes for women with a history of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) and a Body Mass Index (BMI) > 25 kg/m(2) to delay or prevent Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. Methods. Women diagnosed with GDM in the previous 6 to 24 months and BMI > 25 kg/m(2) were randomized to an intervention (I) (n = 16) or a control (C) (n = 15) group. The intervention was a pedometer program combined with nutrition coaching, with the primary outcome increased weight loss in the intervention group. Secondary outcomes included decreased waist and hip measurements, improved insulin sensitivity and body composition, increased physical activity, and improved self-efficacy in eating behaviours. Results. Median (IQR) results were as follows: weight: I -2.5 (2.3) kg versus C +0.2 (1.6) kg (P = 0.009), waist: I -3.6 (4.5) cm versus C -0.1 (3.6) cm (P = 0.07), and hip: I -5.0 (3.3) cm versus C -0.2 (2.6) cm (P = 0.002). There was clinical improvement in physical activity and eating behaviours and no significant changes in glucose metabolism or body composition. Conclusion. A pedometer program and nutrition coaching proved effective in supporting weight loss, waist circumference, physical activity, and eating behaviours in women with previous GDM.

Capacity building in public health nutrition

The aim of the present paper is to review capacity building in public health nutrition (PHN), the need for which has been stressed for many years by a range of academics, national and international organisations. Although great strides have been made worldwide in the science of nutrition, there remain many problems of undernutrition and increasingly of obesity and related chronic diseases. The main emphasis in capacity building has been on the nutrition and health workforce, but the causes of these health problems are multifactorial and require collaboration across sectors in their solution. This means that PHN capacity building has to go beyond basic nutrition and beyond the immediate health workforce to policy makers in other sectors. The present paper provides examples of capacity building activities by various organisations, including universities, industry and international agencies. Examples of web-based courses are given including an introduction to the e-Nutrition Academy. The scope is international but with a special focus on Africa. In conclusion, there remains a great need for capacity building in PHN but the advent of the internet has revolutionised the possibilities.

Evaluation of AUSDRISK as a screening tool for lifestyle modification programs: international implications for policy and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the current use of Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool (AUSDRISK) as a screening tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes for entry into lifestyle modification programs.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

AUSDRISK scores were calculated from participants aged 40-74 years in the Greater Green Triangle Risk Factor Study, a cross-sectional population survey in 3 regions of Southwest Victoria, Australia, 2004-2006. Biomedical profiles of AUSDRISK risk categories were determined along with estimates of the Victorian population included at various cut-off scores. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for AUSDRISK in determining fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥6.1 mmol/L.

RESULTS

Increasing AUSDRISK scores were associated with an increase in weight, body mass index, FPG, and metabolic syndrome. Increasing the minimum cut-off score also increased the proportion of individuals who were obese and centrally obese, had impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and metabolic syndrome. An AUSDRISK score of ≥12 was estimated to include 39.5% of the Victorian population aged 40-74 (916 000), while a score of ≥20 would include only 5.2% of the same population (120 000). At AUSDRISK≥20, the PPV for detecting FPG≥6.1 mmol/L was 28.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

AUSDRISK is powered to predict those with IFG and undiagnosed type 2 diabetes, but its effectiveness as the sole determinant for entry into a lifestyle modification program is questionable given the large proportion of the population screened-in using the current minimum cut-off of ≥12. AUSDRISK should be used in conjunction with oral glucose tolerance testing, fasting glucose, or glycated hemoglobin to identify those individuals at highest risk of progression to type 2 diabetes, who should be the primary targets for lifestyle modification.

A review of interventions to prevent Type 2 Diabetes after Gestational Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) during pregnancy is a risk factor for the development of Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) within 15 years, and prevention programmes have been problematic.

QUESTION

The aim of the study is to identify effective strategies and programmes to decrease the risk of T2DM in women who experience GDM, the barriers to participation, and the opportunities for midwives to assist women in prevention.

METHODS

English language, peer reviewed and professional literature published between 1998 and 2013 were searched. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken, included studies were then appraised for quality and finally findings of the studies were thematically analysed.

FINDINGS

This review identified that there are interventions that are effective, however most lifestyle changes are difficult to translate into everyday life. As the incidence of GDM is expected to rise, midwives' role in promoting long-term health behaviours requires further review.

CONCLUSIONS

Women need to overcome barriers and be supported in making the behavioural changes necessary to prevent T2DM following GDM. Midwives as the primary carers for women in pregnancy and childbirth are ideally positioned to educate women and engage them in lifestyle and behaviour programmes that prevent the onset of Type 2 Diabetes.

Experimental studies of the molecular pathways regulated by exercise and resveratrol in heart, skeletal muscle and the vasculature

Regular exercise contributes to healthy aging and the prevention of chronic disease. Recent research has focused on the development of molecules, such as resveratrol, that activate similar metabolic and stress response pathways as exercise training. In this review, we describe the effects of exercise training and resveratrol on some of the organs and tissues that act in concert to transport oxygen throughout the body. In particular, we focus on animal studies that investigate the molecular signaling pathways induced by these interventions. We also compare and contrast the effects of exercise and resveratrol in diseased states.

Modelling the economics of type 2 diabetes mellitus prevention: a literature review of methods

Our objective was to review modelling methods for type 2 diabetes mellitus prevention cost-effectiveness studies. The review was conducted to inform the design of a policy analysis model capable of assisting resource allocation decisions across a spectrum of prevention strategies. We identified recent systematic reviews of economic evaluations in diabetes prevention and management of obesity. We extracted studies from two existing systematic reviews of economic evaluations for the prevention of diabetes. We extracted studies evaluating interventions in a non-diabetic population with type 2 diabetes as a modelled outcome, from two systematic reviews of obesity intervention economic evaluations. Databases were searched for studies published between 2008 and 2013. For each study, we reviewed details of the model type, structure, and methods for predicting diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Our review identified 46 articles and found variation in modelling approaches for cost-effectiveness evaluations for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Investigation of the variables used to estimate the risk of type 2 diabetes suggested that impaired glucose regulation, and body mass index were used as the primary risk factors for type 2 diabetes. A minority of cost-effectiveness models for diabetes prevention accounted for the multivariate impacts of interventions on risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Twenty-eight cost-effectiveness models included cardiovascular events in addition to type 2 diabetes. Few cost-effectiveness models have flexibility to evaluate different intervention types. We conclude that to compare a range of prevention interventions it is necessary to incorporate multiple risk factors for diabetes, diabetes-related complications and obesity-related co-morbidity outcomes.

Heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness of lifestyle counseling for metabolic syndrome risk groups -primary care patients in Sweden

Background

Clinical trials have indicated that lifestyle interventions for patients with lifestyle-related cardiovascular and diabetes risk factors (the metabolic syndrome) are cost-effective. However, patient characteristics in primary care practice vary considerably, i.e. they exhibit heterogeneity in risk factors. The cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions is likely to differ over heterogeneous patient groups.

Methods

Patients (62 men, 80 women) in the Kalmar Metabolic Syndrome Program (KMSP) in primary care (Kalmar regional healthcare area, Sweden) were divided into three groups reflecting different profiles of metabolic risk factors (low, middle and high risk) and gender. A Markov model was used to predict future cardiovascular disease and diabetes, including complications (until age 85 years or death), with health effects measured as QALYs and costs from a societal perspective in Euro (EUR) 2012, discounted 3%. Simulations with risk factor levels at start and at 12 months follow-up were performed for each group, with an assumed 4-year sustainability of intervention effects.

Results

The program was estimated cost-saving for middle and high risk men, while the incremental cost vs. do-nothing varied between EUR 3,500 – 18,000 per QALY for other groups. There is heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness over the risk groups but this does not affect the overall conclusion on the cost-effectiveness of the KMSP. Even the highest ICER (for high risk women) is considered moderately cost-effective in Sweden. The base case result was not sensitive to alternative data and methodology but considerably affected by sustainability assumptions. Alternative risk stratifications did not change the overall conclusion that KMSP is cost-effective. However, simple grouping with average risk factor levels over gender groups overestimate the cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions

Lifestyle counseling to prevent metabolic diseases is cost-effective in Swedish standard primary care settings. The use of risk stratification in the cost-effectiveness analysis established that the program was cost-effective for all patient groups, even for those with very high levels of lifestyle-related risk factors for the metabolic syndrome diseases. Heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in primary care patients is expected, and should be considered in health policy decisions.

Polyphenols in exercise performance and prevention of exercise-induced muscle damage

Although moderate physical exercise is considered an essential component of a healthy lifestyle that leads the organism to adapt itself to different stresses, exercise, especially when exhaustive, is also known to induce oxidative stress, inflammation, and muscle damage. Many efforts have been carried out to identify dietary strategies or micronutrients able to prevent or at least attenuate the exercise-induced muscle damage and stress. Unfortunately most studies have failed to show protection, and at the present time data supporting the protective effect of micronutrients, as antioxidant vitamins, are weak and trivial. This review focuses on those polyphenols, present in the plant kingdom, that have been recently suggested to exert some positive effects on exercise-induced muscle damage and oxidative stress. In the last decade flavonoids as quercetin, catechins, and other polyphenols as resveratrol have caught the scientists attention. However, at the present time drawing a clear and definitive conclusion seems to be untimely.

The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in developing nutrition policy

Concern about the overconsumption of unhealthy foods is growing worldwide. With high global rates of noncommunicable diseases related to poor nutrition and projections of more rapid increases of rates in low- and middle-income countries, it is vital to identify effective but low-cost interventions. Cost-effectiveness studies show that individually targeted dietary interventions can be effective and cost-effective, but a growing number of modeling studies suggest that population-wide approaches may bring larger and more sustained benefits for population health at a lower cost to society. Mandatory regulation of salt in processed foods, in particular, is highly recommended. Future research should focus on lacunae in the current evidence base: effectiveness of interventions addressing the marketing, availability, and price of healthy and unhealthy foods; modeling health impacts of complex dietary changes and multi-intervention strategies; and modeling health implications in diverse subpopulations to identify interventions that will most efficiently and effectively reduce health inequalities.

Cost-effectiveness of exercise programs in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

A randomized controlled trial has shown that supervised, facility-based exercise training is effective in improving glycemic control in type 2 diabetes. However, these programs are associated with additional costs. This analysis assessed the cost-effectiveness of such programs.

METHODS

Analysis used data from the Diabetes Aerobic and Resistance Exercise (DARE) clinical trial which compared three different exercise programs (resistance, aerobic or a combination of both) of 6 months duration with a control group (no exercise program). Clinical outcomes at 6 months were entered for individual patients into the UKPDS economic model for type 2 diabetes adapted for the Canadian context. From this, expected life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs were estimated for all patients within the trial.

RESULTS

The combined exercise program was the most expensive ($40,050) followed by the aerobic program ($39,250), the resistance program ($38,300) and no program ($31,075). QALYs were highest for combined (8.94), followed by aerobic (8.77), resistance (8.73) and no program (8.70). The incremental cost per QALY gained for the combined exercise program was $4,792 compared with aerobic alone, $8,570 compared with resistance alone, and $37,872 compared with no program. The combined exercise program remained cost-effective for all scenarios considered within sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

A program providing training in both resistance and aerobic exercise was the most cost-effective of the alternatives compared. Based on previous funding decisions, exercise training for individuals with diabetes can be considered an efficient use of resources.

Effectiveness of community-wide and individual high-risk strategies to prevent diabetes: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes has been described as one of the most important threats to the health of developed countries. Effective population strategies to prevent diabetes have not been determined but two broad strategies have been proposed: "high-risk" and "community-wide" strategies.

METHODS

We modelled the potential effectiveness of two strategies to prevent 10% of new cases of diabetes in Ontario, Canada over a 5-year period. The 5-year risk of developing physician-diagnosed diabetes was estimated for respondents to the Canadian Community Health Survey 2003 (CCHS 2.1, N = 26 232) using a validated and calibrated diabetes risk tool (Diabetes Population Risk Tool [DPoRT]). We estimated how many cases of diabetes could be prevented using two different strategies: a) a community-wide strategy that would uniformly reduce body mass index (BMI) in the entire population; and b) a high baseline risk strategy using either pharmacotherapy or lifestyle counselling to treat people who have an increased risk of developing diabetes.

RESULTS

In 2003, the 5-year risk of developing diabetes was 4.7% (383 600 new diagnosed cases of diabetes in 8 189 000 Ontarians aged 20+) and risk was moderately diffused (0.5%, 3.1% and 17.9% risk in the 1(st), 5(th) (median) and 10(th) deciles of risk). A 10% reduction in new cases of diabetes would have been achieved under any of the following scenarios: if BMI was 3.5% lower in the entire population; if lifestyle counselling covered 32.2% of high-risk people (371 900 of 1 155 000 people with 5 year diabetes risk greater than 10%); or, if pharmacotherapy covered 65.2% of high-risk people.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention using pharmacotherapy alone requires unrealistically high coverage levels to achieve modest population reduction in new diabetes cases. On the other hand, in recent years few jurisdictions have been able to achieve a reduction in BMI at the population level, let alone a reduction of BMI of 3.5%.

The long-term cost-effectiveness of obesity prevention interventions: systematic literature review

Obesity prevention provides a major opportunity to improve population health. As health improvements usually require additional and scarce resources, novel health technologies (interventions) should be economically evaluated. In the prevention of obesity, health benefits may slowly accumulate over time and it can take many years before an intervention has reached full effectiveness. Decision-analytic simulation models (DAMs), which combine evidence from diverse sources, can be utilized to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of such interventions. This literature review summarizes long-term economic findings (defined as ≥ 40 years) for 41 obesity prevention interventions, which had been evaluated in 18 cost-utility analyses, using nine different DAMs. Interventions were grouped according to their method of delivery, setting and risk factors targeted into behavioural (n=21), community (n=12) and environmental interventions (n=8). The majority of interventions offered good value for money, while seven were cost-saving. Ten interventions were not cost-effective (defined as >50,000 US dollar), however. Interventions that modified a target population's environment, i.e. fiscal and regulatory measures, reported the most favourable cost-effectiveness. Economic findings were accompanied by a large uncertainty though, which complicates judgments about the comparative cost-effectiveness of interventions.

Aerobic training effects on glucose tolerance in prediabetic and normoglycemic humans

INTRODUCTION

It is generally accepted that if prediabetic individuals adopt healthy lifestyle habits, the progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus can be prevented or delayed. However, the role of exercise training independent of other lifestyle factors has not been determined. Furthermore, patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus have been shown to experience greater training-induced changes in glucose and insulin metabolism compared with healthy subjects, but the adaptations of prediabetic individuals have not been adequately examined. We hypothesized that (i) prediabetic subjects would have greater endurance training-induced changes in plasma glucose and insulin responses to an oral glucose challenge compared with age- and body mass index-matched normoglycemic subjects and (ii) training would completely reverse the abnormal glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects.

METHODS

Plasma glucose and insulin responses to oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) were examined in normoglycemic (n = 119) and prediabetic (n = 47) older men and women before and after a 6-month standardized endurance exercise training program.

RESULTS

Prediabetic subjects had greater glucose and insulin OGTT responses than normoglycemic subjects both before and after training (P < 0.05). Prediabetic subjects had greater training-induced changes in glucose and insulin areas under the glucose tolerance curve, as well as greater changes in glucose and insulin concentrations at several points of the OGTT. However, these changes did not eliminate the baseline differences in glucose tolerance between normoglycemic and prediabetic subjects. The between-group differences in changes in glucose and insulin variables were largely independent of changes in body weight or composition.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that prediabetes is associated with greater training-induced changes in glucose tolerance. However, 6 months of endurance training alone was not sufficient to completely reverse prediabetes.

The impact of diabetes prevention on labour force participation and income of older Australians: an economic study

Background

Globally, diabetes is estimated to affect 246 million people and is increasing. In Australia diabetes has been made a national health priority. While the direct costs of treating diabetes are substantial, and rising, the indirect costs are considered greater. There is evidence that interventions to prevent diabetes are effective, and cost-effective, but the impact on labour force participation and income has not been assessed. In this study we quantify the potential impact of implementing a diabetes prevention program, using screening and either metformin or a lifestyle intervention on individual economic outcomes of pre-diabetic Australians aged 45-64.

Methods

The output of an epidemiological microsimulation model of the reduction in prevalence of diabetes from a lifestyle or metformin intervention, and another microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, of health and the associated impacts on labour force participation, personal income, savings, government revenue and expenditure were used to quantify the estimated outcomes of the two interventions.

Results

An additional 753 person years in the labour force would have been achieved from 1993 to 2003 for the male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003, if a lifestyle intervention had been introduced in 1983; with 890 person years for the equivalent female group. The impact on labour force participation was lower for the metformin intervention, and increased with age for both interventions. The male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003 would have earned an additional $30 million in income with the metformin intervention, and the equivalent female cohort would have earned an additional $25 million. If the lifestyle intervention was introduced, the same male and female cohorts would have earned an additional $34 million and $28 million respectively from 1993 to 2003. For the individuals involved, on average, males would have earned an additional $44,600 per year and females an additional $31,800 per year, if they had continued to work as a result of preventing diabetes.

Conclusions

In addition to improved health and wellbeing, considerable benefits to individuals, in terms of both additional working years and increased personal income, could be made by introducing either a lifestyle or metformin intervention to prevent diabetes.

Value of primordial and primary prevention for cardiovascular disease: a policy statement from the American Heart Association

The process of atherosclerosis may begin in youth and continue for decades, leading to both nonfatal and fatal cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction, stroke, and sudden death. With primordial and primary prevention, cardiovascular disease is largely preventable. Clinical trial evidence has shown convincingly that pharmacological treatment of risk factors can prevent events. The data are less definitive but also highly suggestive that appropriate public policy and lifestyle interventions aimed at eliminating tobacco use, limiting salt consumption, encouraging physical exercise, and improving diet can prevent events. There has been concern about whether efforts aimed at primordial and primary prevention provide value (ie, whether such interventions are worth what we pay for them). Although questions about the value of therapeutics for acute disease may be addressed by cost-effectiveness analysis, the long time frames involved in evaluating preventive interventions make cost-effectiveness analysis difficult and necessarily flawed. Nonetheless, cost-effectiveness analyses reviewed in this policy statement largely suggest that public policy, community efforts, and pharmacological intervention are all likely to be cost-effective and often cost saving compared with common benchmarks. The high direct medical care and indirect costs of cardiovascular disease-approaching $450 billion a year in 2010 and projected to rise to over $1 trillion a year by 2030-make this a critical medical and societal issue. Prevention of cardiovascular disease will also provide great value in developing a healthier, more productive society.

Screening for type 2 diabetes and dysglycemia

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and dysglycemia (impaired glucose tolerance and/or impaired fasting glucose) are increasingly contributing to the global burden of diseases. The authors reviewed the published literature to critically evaluate the evidence on screening for both conditions and to identify the gaps in current understanding. Acceptable, relatively simple, and accurate tools can be used to screen for both T2DM and dysglycemia. Lifestyle modification and/or medication (e.g., metformin) are cost-effective in reducing the incidence of T2DM. However, their application is not yet routine practice. It is unclear whether diabetes-prevention strategies, which influence cardiovascular risk favorably, will also prevent diabetic vascular complications. Cardioprotective therapies, which are cost-effective in preventing complications in conventionally diagnosed T2DM, can be used in screen-detected diabetes, but the magnitude of their effects is unknown. Economic modeling suggests that screening for both T2DM and dysglycemia may be cost-effective, although empirical data on tangible benefits in preventing complications or death are lacking. Screening for T2DM is psychologically unharmful, but the specific impact of attributing the label of dysglycemia remains uncertain. Addressing these gaps will inform the development of a screening policy for T2DM and dysglycemia within a holistic diabetes prevention and control framework combining secondary and high-risk primary prevention strategies.

Progression to type 2 diabetes, healthcare utilization, and cost among pre-diabetic patients with or without comorbid hypertension

OBJECTIVE

This study examined progression to type 2 diabetes and compared healthcare utilization and costs among patients with pre-diabetes, with or without comorbid hypertension.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study drew from a large national claims database (2003-2008). Patients were ≥18 years of age with a medical claim or lab value indicating the presence of pre-diabetes. The index date was the first pre-diabetes diagnosis (ICD-9 codes 790.21, 790.22, 790.29) or qualifying lab value of fasting plasma glucose or impaired glucose intolerance. All patients had ≥12-month data pre- and post- index date. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify risk factors affecting progression to type 2 diabetes, and to estimate the impact of hypertension status and diabetes progression on healthcare utilization and cost.

RESULTS

144,410 patients met study criteria, with an average follow-up of 802 (SD 344) days. Among participants, 30.7% progressed to diabetes, with a mean 288 (SD 340) days from pre-diabetes identification to diabetes diagnosis. Compared with patients who did not progress, the total adjusted medical costs for patients who developed diabetes increased by $1429 in 1 year, $2451 in 2 years, and $3621 in 3 years (p < 0.001). Patients with concomitant hypertension were significantly more likely to progress to type 2 diabetes, and had higher total medical costs compared to patients without hypertension ($476 higher in 1 year, $949 in 2 years, $1378 in 3 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with pre-diabetes who progressed to type 2 diabetes had higher healthcare utilization and costs compared with patients who did not. The presence of hypertension substantially increased costs and was associated with higher likelihood of diabetes progression. Blood pressure, lifestyle intervention, body mass index, and other factors cannot be examined due to the limitations of the data. Results may not be generalizable to patients with insurance other than commercial or Medicare.

HbA(1c) measurement for the diagnosis of diabetes: is it enough?

AIM

To analyse the performance of HbA(1c) in diagnosing Type 2 diabetes based on fasting plasma glucose and/or 2-h plasma glucose measurements after a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test.

METHODS

This is a study of diagnostic test accuracy in individuals referred to the Clinical Pathology Department for oral glucose tolerance testing. After fasting overnight, HbA(1c), fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose were measured. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of HbA(1c).

RESULTS

Four hundred and ninety-eight subjects (195 male, mean age 56 years) were enrolled and 115 (23.1%) were diagnosed with diabetes according to glucose-based methods and only 56 (11.2%) individuals were identified by HbA(1c) ≥ 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) (sensitivity 20.9%, specificity 95.3%). There is poor agreement between the newly recommended criterion and the current glucose-based diagnostic criteria (κ = 0.217; P < 0.001), probably because the diagnostic methods identify different populations of patients. Adding a glucose-based method into an algorithm, as proposed by the UK Department of Health, improved HbA(1c) performance.

CONCLUSIONS

HbA(1c) ≥ 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) showed limited sensitivity to diabetes diagnosis, although with high specificity. The results suggest that this cut-off point would not be enough to diagnose diabetes. Its use as the sole diabetes diagnostic test should be interpreted with caution to assure the correct classification of diabetic individuals.

Management of diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors in seven countries: a comparison of data from national health examination surveys

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effectiveness of the health system response to the challenge of diabetes across different settings and explore the inequalities in diabetes care that are attributable to socioeconomic factors.

METHODS

We used nationally representative health examination surveys from Colombia, England, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mexico, Scotland, Thailand and the United States of America to obtain data on diagnosis, treatment and control of hyperglycaemia, arterial hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia among individuals with diabetes. Using logistic regression, we explored the socioeconomic determinants of diagnosis and effective case management.

FINDINGS

A substantial proportion of individuals with diabetes remain undiagnosed and untreated, both in developed and developing countries. The figures range from 24% of the women in Scotland and the USA to 62% of the men in Thailand. The proportion of individuals with diabetes reaching treatment targets for blood glucose, arterial blood pressure and serum cholesterol was very low, ranging from 1% of male patients in Mexico to about 12% in the United States. Income and education were not found to be significantly related to the rates of diagnosis and treatment anywhere except in Thailand, but in the three countries with available data insurance status was a strong predictor of diagnosis and effective management, especially in the United States.

CONCLUSION

There are many missed opportunities to reduce the burden of diabetes through improved control of blood glucose levels and improved diagnosis and treatment of arterial hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia. While no large socioeconomic inequalities were noted in the management of individuals with diabetes, financial access to care was a strong predictor of diagnosis and management.