The relationship between eGFR slope and subsequent risk of vascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes: the ADVANCE-ON study

Combination blood pressure lowering therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: messages from the ADVANCE trial

The Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: preterAx and diamicroN Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial investigated the effects of intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering using a fixed combination of perindopril-indapamide versus placebo in type 2 diabetes (T2D). The study showed that combination perindopril-indapamide had significant benefits in reducing cardiovascular, renal, and mortality events, with consistent relative risk reductions across different patient subgroups. Secondary analyses of ADVANCE have identified novel risk markers in T2D including cessation of BP lowering therapy, absent peripheral pulses and cardiac biomarkers to name a few. ADVANCE also shed light on practical aspects of hypertension management, including the limitations of office BP, tolerability of combination BP lowering therapy across the range of BP levels and the interpretation of changes in serum creatinine after treatment initiation. This review article summarizes the findings of ADVANCE and its subsequent substudies, which have been foundational in our understanding of BP management and the use of combination BP lowering therapy in T2D.

Annual variation of estimated glomerular filtration rate in health check-ups associated with end-stage kidney disease

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) variation is associated with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) development in patients with chronic kidney disease; whether annual variations in eGFR at health check-ups is associated with ESKD risk in the general population is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Japanese national medical insurance claims from 2013 to 2020. Individuals who had their eGFR levels measured three times in annual health check-ups were included (N = 115,191), and the coefficient of variation of eGFR (CVeGFR) was calculated from 3-point eGFR. The end-point was ESKD as reported in the claims data. We analyzed the association between CVeGFR and ESKD incidence after adjusting for conventional ESKD risk factors. The CVeGFR median distribution was 5.7% (interquartile range: 3.5-8.5%). During a median follow-up period of 3.74 years, 164 patients progressed to ESKD. ESKD incidence was significantly higher in the highest quartile group (CVeGFR ≥ 8.5%) than in the other groups (P < 0.0001). After adjusting for risk factors, individuals with CVeGFR ≥ 8.5% had a significantly high ESKD incidence (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.01; 95% CI 2.14-4.30). High CVeGFR in annual health check-ups was associated with high ESKD incidence, independent of its other conventional risk factors, in the general population.

Rate and risk factors of kidney function decline among South Asians with type 2 diabetes: analysis of the CARRS Trial

INTRODUCTION

People with diabetes are at risk of developing chronic kidney disease. However, limited data are available to quantify their risk of kidney function decline in South Asia. This study evaluates the rate and predictors of kidney function decline among people with type 2 diabetes in South Asia.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed data from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) Trial to quantify the rate of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in people with type 2 diabetes (n=1146) over 2.5 years of follow-up. The CARRS Trial evaluated a multicomponent intervention of decision-supported electronic health records and non-physician care coordinator to improve diabetes management at 10 diabetes clinics in India and Pakistan. We used linear mixed models to estimate eGFR slope among all participants and tested the association of eGFR slope with demographic, disease-related, and self-care parameters, accounting for randomization and site.

RESULTS

The mean age of participants was 54.2 years, with a median duration of diabetes of 7.0 years (IQR: 3.0 - 12.0) and median CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) eGFR of 83.6 (IQR: 67.7 to 97.9) mL/min/1.73 m2. The overall mean eGFR slope was -1.33/mL/min/1.73 m2/year. There were no differences in the eGFR slope by treatment assignment to intervention versus usual care. In the adjusted regression model, pre-existing diabetic retinopathy (slope difference: -2.11; 95% CI: -3.45 to -0.77), previous cardiovascular disease (-1.93; 95% CI: -3.45 to -0.40), and statins use (-0.87; 95% CI: -1.65 to -0.10) were associated with faster eGFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS

People with diabetes receiving care at urban diabetes clinics in South Asia experienced annual eGFR decline at two times higher rate than that reported from other contemporary international diabetes cohorts. Risk factors for faster decline were similar to those previously established, and thus care delivery models must put an additional emphasis on kidney protective therapies among subgroups with microvascular and macrovascular diabetes complications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01212328.

Add-on astragalus in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: A multi-center, assessor-blind, randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Diabetes leads to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and kidney failure, requiring dialysis or transplantation. Astragalus, a common herbal medicine and US pharmacopeia-registered food ingredient, is shown kidney protective by retrospective and preclinical data but with limited long-term prospective clinical evidence. This trial aimed to assess the effectiveness of astragalus on kidney function decline in macroalbuminuric diabetic CKD patients.

METHODS

This randomized, assessor-blind, standard care-controlled, multi-center clinical trial randomly assigned 118 patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-90 ml/min/1.73m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 300-5000 mg/g from 7 public outpatient clinics and the community in Hong Kong between July 2018 and April 2022 to add-on oral astragalus granules (15 gs of raw herbs daily equivalent) or to continue standard care alone as control for 48 weeks. Primary outcomes were the slope of change of eGFR (used for sample size calculation) and UACR of the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included endpoint blood pressures, biochemistry, biomarkers, concomitant drug change and adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03535935) RESULTS: During the 48-week period, the estimated difference in the slope of eGFR decline was 4.6 ml/min/1.73m2 per year (95 %CI: 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003) slower with astragalus. For UACR, the estimated inter-group proportional difference in the slope of change was insignificant (1.14, 95 %CI: 0.85 to 1.52, p = 0.392). 117 adverse events from 31 astragalus-treated patients and 41 standard care-controlled patients were documented. The 48-week endpoint systolic blood pressure was 7.9 mmHg lower (95 %CI: -12.9 to -2.8, p = 0.003) in the astragalus-treated patients. 113 (96 %) and 107 (91 %) patients had post-randomization and endpoint primary outcome measures, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2 to 3 CKD and macroalbuminuria, add-on astragalus for 48 weeks further stabilized kidney function on top of standard care.

Baseline Urine Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio is Associated With Decline of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: An Observational 5-year Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the association between baseline albuminuria and the progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 604 patients aged ≥18 years who were newly diagnosed with type 2 DM between January 2014 and 31 December 2017 at an outpatient clinic in a tertiary hospital in China. The incidence of albuminuria was determined and the associations between albuminuria at baseline and the progression of DKD estimated by estimated glomerular filtration rate slope were evaluated using binary logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

At diagnosis of type 2 DM, 18.8% of patients had albuminuria, with 17.4% having microalbuminuria and the other 1.4% having macroalbuminuria. During the 5-year follow-up period, patients with albuminuria at the baseline experienced a more rapid decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate over time than patients with normoalbuminuria at baseline (-2.6 vs -1.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year, P =.01). Albuminuria at baseline is independently associated with the progression of DKD.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of albuminuria is 18.8% in patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and the occurrence of albuminuria can predict steeper annual decline in kidney function.

Unveiling the Hidden Burden: Estimating All-Cause Mortality Risk in Older Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes

Background

The mortality rate among older persons with diabetes has been steadily increasing, resulting in significant health and economic burdens on both society and individuals. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for estimating the 5-year all-cause mortality risk in older persons with T2D (T2D).

Methods

We obtained data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES). A random 7 : 3 split was made between the training and validation sets. By linking the national mortality index up until December 31, 2019, we ensured a minimum of 5 years of follow-up to assess all-cause mortality. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort using a logistic regression model as well as a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model for predicting the 5-year risk of all-cause mortality. Finally, the prediction performance of the nomogram is evaluated using several validation methods.

Results

We constructed a comprehensive prediction model based on the results of multivariate analysis and LASSO binomial regression. These models were then validated using data from the validation cohort. The final model includes four independent predictors: age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and white blood cell count. The C-index values for the training and validation cohorts were 0.748 and 0.762, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrates satisfactory consistency between the two cohorts.

Conclusions

The newly developed nomogram proves to be a valuable tool in accurately predicting the 5-year all-cause mortality risk among older persons with diabetes, providing crucial information for tailored interventions.

Is eGFR Slope a Novel Predictor of Chronic Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Diabetic kidney disease affects approximately 40% of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and is associated with an increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and cardiovascular (CV) events, as well as increased mortality. Among the indicators of decline in renal function, the eGFR slope is acquiring an increasing clinical interest. The aim of this study was to evaluate, through a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis of the collected data, the association between the decline of the eGFR slope, chronic complications, and mortality of T2DM patients, in order to understand whether or not the eGFR slope can be defined as a predictive indicator of complications in T2DM.

Methods

The review and meta-analysis were conducted according to PRISMA guidelines considering published studies on patients with T2DM. A scientific literature search was carried out on PubMed from January 2003 to April 2023 with subsequent selection of scientific papers according to the inclusion criteria.

Results

Fifteen studies were selected for meta-analysis. Risk analysis as hazard ratio (HR) indicated a significant association between all events considered (all-cause mortality, CV events, ESKD, and microvascular events) for patients with steeper eGFR slope decline than subjects with stable eGFR. Calculated HRs (with 95% CI) were as follows: for all-cause mortality, 2.31 (1.70-3.15); for CV events, 1.73 (1.43-2.08); for ESKD, 1.54 (1.45-1.64); and for microvascular events, 2.07 (1.57-2.73). Overall HR was 1.82 (1.72-1.92).

Conclusions

An association between rapid eGFR decline and chronic diabetes complications was demonstrated, suggesting that eGFR slope variability significantly impacts the course of T2DM and that eGFR slope should be considered as a predictor for chronic complications in patients with T2DM. According to the obtained results, the therapeutic management of the patient with diabetes should not focus exclusively on glycaemic control, and particular attention should be paid to preserve renal function.

Kidney function decline is associated with mortality events: over a decade of follow-up from Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

BACKGROUND

To investigate the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change and mortality risk in a cohort from the Middle East and North Africa region with increasing chronic kidney disease burden.

METHODS

We included 2210 participants aged ≥ 50 years from the prospective cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. The interval for eGFR measurement was between the examinations in 2002-2005 to 2009-2011, and participants were followed through March 2018. Glomerular filtration rate was estimated from serum creatinine using the CKD-EPI creatinine equation. We assessed the association of rapid kidney function decline, (defined as annual eGFR decline ≥ 3 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year); ≥ 30% eGFR decline over six years; and certain drop in kidney function (≥ 25% eGFR decline plus drop in eGFR category) with mortality outcomes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 14.3 years after recruitment, 315 all-cause and 112 cardiovascular disease deaths were recorded. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause death for rapid kidney function decline, ≥ 30% decline in eGFR over 6 years, and drop in kidney function were 1.68 (1.24-2.27), 2.01 (1.46-2.78), and 1.49 (1.11-1.98), respectively. The HRs of all-cause death and for rapid kidney function decline in those without and with chronic kidney disease were 1.41 (1.03-1.91) and 3.38 (1.69-6.76), respectively. Similar findings were observed regarding cardiovascular disease-related and non-cardiovascular disease-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimated GFR decline is associated with an increased mortality risk, indicating its ability to provide additional prognostic information beyond traditional risk predictors in the general population.

Cardiovascular Disease in Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common occurrence in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), occurring in approximately 40% of cases. DM is also an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but CKD is an important mediator of this risk. Multiple CVD outcomes trials have revealed a greater risk for CVD events in patients with diabetes with CKD versus those without. Thus, reducing the risk of CKD in diabetes should result in improved CVD outcomes. To date, of blood pressure (BP) control, glycemic control, and inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system (RASI), glycemic control appears to have the best evidence for preventing CKD development. In established CKD, especially with albuminuria, RASI slows the progression of CKD. More recently, sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide receptor agonists (GLP1RA) have revolutionized the care of patients with diabetes with and without CKD. SGLT2i and GLP1RA have proven to reduce mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, and worsening CKD in patients with diabetes with and without existing CKD. The future of limiting CVD in diabetes and CKD is promising, and more evidence is forthcoming regarding combinations of evidence-based therapies to further minimize CVD events.

Association of eGFR slope with all-cause mortality, macrovascular and microvascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes and early-stage chronic kidney disease

AIMS

The association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope with progression of complications in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less clear.

METHODS

We identified 115,139 T2D participants without decreased eGFR (>60 mL/min/1.73 m2) between 2008 and 2015 from the electronic database of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. eGFR slope calculated by linear-mixed effects model using 3-year eGFR measurements was categorized into quintiles. With Quintile 3 of eGFR slope as the reference group, we used Cox proportional or cause-specific models to investigate the association between eGFR slope and all-cause mortality, macrovascular and microvascular complications, as appropriate.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, fastest eGFR declines (Quintile 1 with median eGFR slope: -4.32 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were associated with increased risk of all adverse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.36 to 2.97, all P < 0.0001), compared with less steep eGFR declines (Quintile 3: -1.08 mL/min/1.73 m2/year). Substantial eGFR increases (Quintile 5: 1.34 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were associated with decreased risk of CKD and ≥ 40 % decline in eGFR (aHR [95 % CI] 0.65 [0.63, 0.67] and 0.85 [0.82, 0.89], respectively) and higher risk of death, CVD, DR and DN (aHR [95 % CI] 1.48 [1.40, 1.56], 1.19 [1.14, 1.25], 1.07 [1.004, 1.15] and 1.62 [1.37, 1.91], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of T2D people without decreased eGFR, accelerated declines and increases in eGFR were associated with all-cause mortality, macrovascular and microvascular complications, supporting the potential prognostic utility of eGFR slope in T2D people with early-stage CKD.

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and cardiovascular disease among individuals with and without diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported an association between a significant decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to investigate the association between the eGFR slope and CVD among individuals with and without diabetes.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was conducted within the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) framework. We studied 6919 adults aged 20-70 years, including 985 with diabetes and 5934 without diabetes. The eGFR slope was determined based on repeated measurements of eGFR through linear mixed-effects models. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was employed to evaluate the association between eGFR slope, both in continuous and categorical form, and the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

The slopes of eGFR exhibited a bell-shaped distribution, with a mean (standard deviation (SD)) of -0.63 (0.13) and - 0.70 (0.14) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year in individuals with and without diabetes, respectively. During a median follow-up of 8.22 years, following the 9-year eGFR slope ascertainment period, a total of 551 CVD events (195 in patients with diabetes) were observed. Among individuals with diabetes, a steeper decline in eGFR slope was significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD events, even after adjusting for baseline eGFR, demographic factors, and traditional risk factors for CVD; slopes of (-1.05 to -0.74) and (-0.60 to -0.52) were associated with 2.12 and %64 higher risks for CVD, respectively, compared with a slope of (-0.51 to 0.16). Among individuals without diabetes, the annual eGFR slope did not show a significant association with the risk of CVD.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring the eGFR slope may serve as a potential predictor of CVD risk in individuals with diabetes.

Variants within the LPL gene confer susceptility to diabetic kidney disease and rapid decline in kidney function in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes

AIM

To examine the association between lipoprotein lipase (LPL) polymorphisms and susceptibility to diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and early renal function decline in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

The association of eight LPL single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with DKD was analysed in 2793 patients with T2D from the third China National Stroke Registry. DKD was defined as either an urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 30 mg/g or higher at baseline and 3 months, or an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline and 3 months. Rapid decline in kidney function (RDKF) was defined as a reduction in the eGFR of 3 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater per year. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of LPL SNP and DKD with an additive model.

RESULTS

The SNPs rs285 C>T (OR = 1.40, P = .0154), rs328 C>G (OR = 2.24, P = .0104) and rs3208305 A>T (OR = 1.85, P = .0015) were identified to be significantly associated with DKD defined by eGFR. Among 1241 participants with follow-up data, 441 (35.5%) showed RDKF over a mean follow-up period of 1 year, and the rs285 C allele was associated with higher odds of RDKF (OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.04-1.66; P = .025) after adjustment for multiple variables.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LPL-related SNPs are new candidate factors for conferring susceptibility to DKD and may promote rapid loss of renal function in Chinese patients with T2D.

Rate of Kidney Function Decline is Associated With Kidney and Heart Failure in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes

Introduction

Diabetes is the most common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Urinary albumin excretion rate (AER) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are commonly used to monitor the onset and progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). We studied if the preceding rate of kidney function decline, that is, the eGFR slope, is independently associated with incident clinical cardiorenal events.

Methods

This study included longitudinal data for 2498 Finnish individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D). The eGFR slope was calculated from 5 years preceding the study visit. Data on kidney failure, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), heart failure, and death were obtained from national registries. The associations between the eGFR slope and incident events were assessed with multivariable competing risk models during the average follow-up of 9.2 years.

Results

The eGFR slopes were associated (P ≤ 0.001) with all outcomes when adjusted for age, sex, and HbA1c. However, eGFR slope remained associated only with the composite outcome of kidney failure or death when the albuminuria group and eGFR at the study visit were included in the model (P = 0.041). In addition, eGFR slope was independently associated with kidney failure in individuals without CKD (eGFR > 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2; P = 0.044), and with heart failure in those with CKD (P = 0.033). However, eGFR slope did not markedly improve the model C-index.

Conclusion

The eGFR slope was independently associated with kidney failure in those without CKD, and with heart failure in those with CKD. However, it is unlikely to have major relevance for clinical practice when the current eGFR and albuminuria status are known.

Add-on Rehmannia-6-Based Chinese Medicine in Type 2 Diabetes and CKD: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is the leading cause of CKD and kidney failure. We assessed the real-world effectiveness of Rehmannia-6-based Chinese medicine treatment, the most used Chinese medicine formulation, on the change in eGFR and albuminuria in patients with diabetes and CKD with severely increased albuminuria.

METHODS

In this randomized, assessor-blind, standard care-controlled, parallel, multicenter trial, 148 adult patients from outpatient clinics with type 2 diabetes, an eGFR of 30-90 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 300-5000 mg/g were randomized 1:1 to a 48-week add-on protocolized Chinese medicine treatment program (using Rehmannia-6-based formulations in the granule form taken orally) or standard care alone. Primary outcomes were the slope of change in eGFR and UACR between baseline and end point (48 weeks after randomization) in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included safety and the change in biochemistry, biomarkers, and concomitant drug use.

RESULTS

The mean age, eGFR, and UACR were 65 years, 56.7 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and 753 mg/g, respectively. Ninety-five percent ( n =141) of end point primary outcome measures were retrievable. For eGFR, the estimated slope of change was -2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.1 to -3.9) and -4.7 (95% CI, -2.9 to -6.5) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 in participants treated with add-on Chinese medicine or standard care alone, resulting in a 2.7 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year (95% CI, 0.1 to 5.3; P = 0.04) less decline with Chinese medicine. For UACR, the estimated proportion in the slope of change was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.02) and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.85 to 1.14) in participants treated with add-on Chinese medicine or standard care alone, respectively. The intergroup proportional difference (0.89, 11% slower increment in add-on Chinese medicine, 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.10; P = 0.28) did not reach statistical significance. Eighty-five adverse events were recorded from 50 participants (add-on Chinese medicine versus control: 22 [31%] versus 28 [36%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Rehmannia-6-based Chinese medicine treatment stabilized eGFR on top of standard care alone after 48 weeks in patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2-3 CKD, and severely increased albuminuria.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY

Semi-individualized Chinese Medicine Treatment as an Adjuvant Management for Diabetic Nephropathy (SCHEMATIC), NCT02488252 .

Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure: Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Changes in albuminuria and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression, and studies have demonstrated that each is associated with treatment effects on clinical end points. In this study, the authors sought to develop a conceptual framework that combines both surrogate end points to better predict treatment effects on clinical end points in Phase 2 trials. The results demonstrate that information from the combined treatment effects on albuminuria and GFR slope improves the prediction of treatment effects on the clinical end point for Phase 2 trials with sample sizes between 100 and 200 patients and duration of follow-up ranging from 1 to 2 years. These findings may help inform design of clinical trials for interventions aimed at slowing CKD progression.

BACKGROUND

Changes in log urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and GFR slope are individually used as surrogate end points in clinical trials of CKD progression. Whether combining these surrogate end points might strengthen inferences about clinical benefit is unknown.

METHODS

Using Bayesian meta-regressions across 41 randomized trials of CKD progression, we characterized the combined relationship between the treatment effects on the clinical end point (sustained doubling of serum creatinine, GFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , or kidney failure) and treatment effects on UACR change and chronic GFR slope after 3 months. We applied the results to the design of Phase 2 trials on the basis of UACR change and chronic GFR slope in combination.

RESULTS

Treatment effects on the clinical end point were strongly associated with the combination of treatment effects on UACR change and chronic slope. The posterior median meta-regression coefficients for treatment effects were -0.41 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.64 to -0.17) per 1 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year for the treatment effect on GFR slope and -0.06 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval, -0.90 to 0.77) for the treatment effect on UACR change. The predicted probability of clinical benefit when considering both surrogates was determined primarily by estimated treatment effects on UACR when sample size was small (approximately 60 patients per treatment arm) and follow-up brief (approximately 1 year), with the importance of GFR slope increasing for larger sample sizes and longer follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In Phase 2 trials of CKD with sample sizes of 100-200 patients per arm and follow-up between 1 and 2 years, combining information from treatment effects on UACR change and GFR slope improved the prediction of treatment effects on clinical end points.

Novel Genetic Variants Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease Progression

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

eGFR slope has been used as a surrogate outcome for progression of CKD. However, genetic markers associated with eGFR slope among patients with CKD were unknown. We aimed to identify genetic susceptibility loci associated with eGFR slope. A two-phase genome-wide association study identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 , and 22 of them were used to derive polygenic risk scores that mark the decline of eGFR by disrupting binding of nearby transcription factors. This work is the first to identify the impact of TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 on CKD progression, providing predictive markers for the decline of eGFR in patients with CKD.

BACKGROUND

The incidence of CKD is associated with genetic factors. However, genetic markers associated with the progression of CKD have not been fully elucidated.

METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide association study among 1738 patients with CKD, mainly from the KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With CKD. The outcome was eGFR slope. We performed a replication study for discovered single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with P <10 -6 in 2498 patients with CKD from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study. Several expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies, pathway enrichment analyses, exploration of epigenetic architecture, and predicting disruption of transcription factor (TF) binding sites explored potential biological implications of the loci. We developed and evaluated the effect of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on incident CKD outcomes.

RESULTS

SNPs in two novel loci, TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 , were replicated (rs59402340 in TPPP , Pdiscovery =7.11×10 -7 , PCRIC =8.13×10 -4 , Pmeta =7.23×10 -8 ; rs28629773 in FAT1-LINC02374 , Pdiscovery =6.08×10 -7 , PCRIC =4.33×10 -2 , Pmeta =1.87×10 -7 ). The eQTL studies revealed that the replicated SNPs regulated the expression level of nearby genes associated with kidney function. Furthermore, these SNPs were near gene enhancer regions and predicted to disrupt the binding of TFs. PRS based on the independently significant top 22 SNPs were significantly associated with CKD outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that SNP markers in the TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 loci could be predictive markers for the decline of eGFR in patients with CKD.

Change in Serum Uric Acid is a Useful Predictor of All-Cause Mortality among Community-Dwelling Persons

There is limited research on the association between longitudinal variability in serum uric acid (SUA) and all-cause mortality in the general population, although recent studies have suggested that changes in SUA are associated with all-cause mortality in adults. This study aims to examine the association between percentage change in SUA (%dSUA = 100 × (cohort 2 SUA - cohort 1 SUA)/(time × cohort 1 SUA) and all-cause mortality. This study is based on 1,301 participants, of whom 543 were male (63 ± 11 years) and 758 were female (63 ± 9 years). We obtained adjusted relative risk estimates for all-cause mortality and used a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for possible confounders, to determine the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of %dSUA. Of all the participants, 79 (6.1%) were deceased, and of these, 45 were male (8.3%) and 34 were female (4.5%). The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for all-cause mortality for the first, second to fourth (reference), and fifth %dSUA quintiles were 3.79 (1.67-8.48), 1.00, and 0.87 (0.29-2.61) for male participants and 4.00 (1.43-11.2), 1.00, and 1.19 (0.46-3.05) for female participants, respectively. Participants with a body mass index of <22 kg/m² had a significantly higher HR, forming a U-shaped curve for the first (HR, 7.59; 95% CI, 2.13-27.0) and fifth quintiles (HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.05-8.18) relative to the reference. Percentage change in SUA is independently and significantly associated with future all-cause mortality among community-dwelling persons.

Computational Pipeline for Glomerular Segmentation and Association of the Quantified Regions with Prognosis of Kidney Function in IgA Nephropathy

The histopathological findings of the glomeruli from whole slide images (WSIs) of a renal biopsy play an important role in diagnosing and grading kidney disease. This study aimed to develop an automated computational pipeline to detect glomeruli and to segment the histopathological regions inside of the glomerulus in a WSI. In order to assess the significance of this pipeline, we conducted a multivariate regression analysis to determine whether the quantified regions were associated with the prognosis of kidney function in 46 cases of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). The developed pipelines showed a mean intersection over union (IoU) of 0.670 and 0.693 for five classes (i.e., background, Bowman's space, glomerular tuft, crescentic, and sclerotic regions) against the WSI of its facility, and 0.678 and 0.609 against the WSI of the external facility. The multivariate analysis revealed that the predicted sclerotic regions, even those that were predicted by the external model, had a significant negative impact on the slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate after biopsy. This is the first study to demonstrate that the quantified sclerotic regions that are predicted by an automated computational pipeline for the segmentation of the histopathological glomerular components on WSIs impact the prognosis of kidney function in patients with IgAN.

Rationale, design and baseline characteristics of the effect of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria in the Japanese population: The CANPIONE study

AIM

To evaluate the effect of canagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, on albuminuria and the decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria.

METHODS

The CANPIONE study is a multicentre, randomized, parallel-group and open-labelled study consisting of a unique 24-week preintervention period, during which the rate of eGFR decline before intervention is estimated, followed by a 52-week intervention and a 4-week washout period. Participants with a geometric mean urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 50 and higher and less than 300 mg/g in two consecutive first-morning voids at two different time points, and an eGFR of 45 ml/min/1.73m² or higher, are randomly assigned to receive canagliflozin 100 mg daily or to continue guideline-recommended treatment, except for SGLT2 inhibitors. The first primary outcome is the change in UACR, and the second primary outcome is the change in eGFR slope.

RESULTS

A total of 258 participants were screened and 98 were randomized at 21 sites in Japan from August 2018 to May 2021. The mean baseline age was 61.4 years and 25.8% were female. The mean HbA1c was 7.9%, mean eGFR was 74.1 ml/min/1.73m² and median UACR was 104.2 mg/g.

CONCLUSIONS

The CANPIONE study will determine whether the SGLT2 inhibitor canagliflozin can reduce albuminuria and slow eGFR decline in participants with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria.

Analysis of eGFR index category and annual eGFR slope association with adverse clinical outcomes using real-world Japanese data: a retrospective database study

OBJECTIVES

Real-world clinical outcome data of patients with an above-normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and increasing eGFR over time (eGFR slope) are scarce. Although eGFR is commonly recorded, eGFR slopes are rarely used for adverse outcome risk categorisation in clinical practice. We investigated the association of above-normal/below-normal eGFR ranges and increasing/declining eGFR slopes with clinical outcomes in Japan.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Primary and acute care hospitals; 423 centres.

PARTICIPANTS

57 452 patients aged ≥16 years with ≥3 eGFR values (latest available January 2013-December 2016) from the Japanese Medical Data Vision database were stratified into six index eGFR and six eGFR slope groups (slopes calculated using a linear mixed model).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Time-to-event analyses of cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality (ACM), all-cause hospitalisation (ACH) and cardiovascular and major kidney events. eGFR and slope groups were analysed by Cox proportional hazard models with multivariable adjustment, using normal eGFR/little-to-no slope groups as reference.

RESULTS

Higher risk of clinical outcomes was observed with declining eGFR slope groups versus the reference group; the HR (95% CI) for slope ≤-5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year: cardiovascular events 1.8 (1.4 to 2.2), ACH 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1), and ACM 2.8 (1.9 to 4.2) and was non-significant for kidney events 1.5 (0.9 to 2.5). A similar, but non-significant, pattern was observed with increasing slope groups (slope >3 mL/min/1.73 m²/year HR (95% CI): cardiovascular events 1.2 (0.9 to 1.5), ACH 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) and ACM 1.5 (0.9 to 2.3)).Above-normal and below-normal eGFR groups were associated with poorer outcomes versus the reference group, but kidney events were associated with below-normal eGFR only.

CONCLUSION

Poorer clinical outcomes were observed not only for below-normal eGFR and declining eGFR slope groups but also for certain above-normal eGFR and increasing slope groups. eGFR and eGFR slope may, therefore, be useful for identifying patients at high risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Chronic Kidney Disease: A Critical Review of Estimate-Based Predictions of Individual Outcomes in Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is generally regarded as a final common pathway of several renal diseases, often leading to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and a need for renal replacement therapy. Estimated GFR (eGFR) has been used to predict this outcome recognizing its robust association with renal disease progression and the eventual need for dialysis in large, mainly cross-sectional epidemiological studies. However, GFR is implicitly limited as follows: (1) GFR reflects only one of the many physiological functions of the kidney; (2) it is dependent on several non-renal factors; (3) it has intrinsic variability that is a function of dietary intake, fluid and cardiovascular status, and blood pressure especially with impaired autoregulation or medication use; (4) it has been shown to change with age with a unique non-linear pattern; and (5) eGFR may not correlate with GFR in certain conditions and disease states. Yet, many clinicians, especially our non-nephrologist colleagues, tend to regard eGFR obtained from a simple laboratory test as both a valid reflection of renal function and a reliable diagnostic tool in establishing the diagnosis of CKD. What is the validity of these beliefs? This review will critically reassess the limitations of such single-focused attention, with a particular focus on inter-individual variability. What does science actually tell us about the usefulness of eGFR in diagnosing CKD?

Skin autofluorescence is associated with progression of kidney disease in type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study from the Hong Kong diabetes biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Skin autofluorescence (SAF) can non-invasively assess the accumulation of tissue AGEs. We investigated the association between SAF and kidney dysfunction in participants with T2D.

METHODS

Of 4030 participants consecutively measured SAF at baseline, 3725 participants free of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) were included in the analyses. The association of SAF with incident ESKD or ≥30% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was examined with Cox regression, linear mixed-effects model for the association with annual eGFR decline, and mediation analyses for the mediating roles of renal markers.

RESULTS

During a median (IQR) 1.8 (1.1-3.1) years of follow-up, 411 participants developed the outcome. SAF was associated with progression of kidney disease (hazard ratio 1.15 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.04, 1.28]) and annual decline in eGFR (β -0.39 per SD, 95% CI [-0.71, -0.07]) after adjustment for risk factors, including baseline eGFR and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR). Decreased eGFR (12.9%) and increased UACR (25.8%) accounted for 38.7% of the effect of SAF on renal outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

SAF is independently associated with progression of kidney disease. More than half of its effect is independent of renal markers. SAF is of potential to be a prognostic marker for kidney dysfunction.

Potential Role and Limitations of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Slope Assessment in Cardiovascular Trials: A Review

Importance

Cardiovascular trials have traditionally been underpowered to assess advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) outcomes, and when included as a secondary end point, trials have used progression of CKD as incidence of some variation of a composite of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) outcomes. Such outcomes are infrequent or occur late in cardiovascular outcome trials, which highlights the need for alternate markers for assessing the impact of interventions on kidney function at an earlier stage of the disease and, from the prevention perspective, more relevant stage of the disease.

Observations

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope has demonstrated strong association with subsequent progression to ESKD. With adequate sample size, treatment effects in the range of 0.5 to 1.00 mL/min/1.73 m2/y had 96% probability of predicting CKD progression, defined as doubling of serum creatinine, eGFR less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, or ESKD. eGFR slope can be used in patients with higher baseline values and may provide CKD progression insights when few hard kidney events are observed, especially in trials with limited follow-up. However, among trials that have determined eGFR slope, significant variations exist regarding inclusion of baseline values, calculation of eGFR values, and the follow-up period, which make it difficult to compare and gauge the incremental benefit of the interventions. There are multiple challenges in computing eGFR slope in cardiovascular trials, such as accounting for initial eGFR dip, nonlinearity, and heteroscedasticity.

Conclusions and Relevance

eGFR slope may serve as a valuable marker to determine progression of CKD in cardiovascular trials. Further work is required to standardize data collection, follow-up duration, time points for kidney function assessment, and analytic methods to compute eGFR slope in cardiovascular trials.

Trajectories of kidney function in diabetes: a clinicopathological update

Diabetic nephropathy has been traditionally diagnosed based on persistently high albuminuria and a subsequent decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR), which is widely recognized as the classical phenotype of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). Several studies have emphasized that trajectories of kidney function in patients with diabetes (specifically, changes in GFR and albuminuria over time) can differ from this classical DKD phenotype. Three alternative DKD phenotypes have been reported to date and are characterized by albuminuria regression, a rapid decline in GFR, or non-proteinuric or non-albuminuric DKD. Although kidney biopsies are not typically required for the diagnosis of DKD, a few studies of biopsy samples from patients with DKD have demonstrated that changes in kidney function associate with specific histopathological findings in diabetes. In addition, various clinical and biochemical parameters are related to trajectories of GFR and albuminuria. Collectively, pathological and clinical characteristics can be used to predict trajectories of GFR and albuminuria in diabetes. Furthermore, cohort studies have suggested that the risks of kidney and cardiovascular outcomes might vary among different phenotypes of DKD. A broader understanding of the clinical course of DKD is therefore crucial to improve risk stratification and enable early interventions that prevent adverse outcomes.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes patients with renal function impairment slow the annual renal function decline, in a real clinical practice

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to elucidate whether sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) treatment has any renoprotective effect for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in clinical practice.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We evaluated the annual eGFR slope in 85 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with renal impairment, treated with SGLT2is ≥2 years. Each patient's eGFR was <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the start of SGLT2is therapy. The calculation of the annual change in eGFR for each patient was obtained by acquired eGFR data before and after 2 years of the initial SGLT2is administration, followed by analysis of the changes in the mean eGFR slope.

RESULTS

The participants' mean age was 72.0 ± 9.4 years, and the mean eGFR was 47.1 ± 9.7 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the start of additional treatment with SGLT2is. The mean annual eGFR slope after SGLT2is administration (-0.11 ± 0.20 mL/min/1.73 m2 /year) was significantly slower than before SGLT2is administration (-2.93 ± 0.59 mL/min/1.73 m2 /year; P < 0.0001). Additionally, SGLT2is treatment slowed the annual decline of eGFR, independent of the levels of both the initial eGFR and albuminuria levels before SGLT2is therapy was started. In the patient groups who showed an annual eGFR decline of ≥3 and 1-3 mL/min/1.73 m2 , there was a significant slowing of the decline after SGLT2is therapy, compared with before the treatment (P < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

SGLT2is administration slows the decline observed in the annual renal function in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with eGFR of <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in clinical practice.

Association of Genetic Variants for Plasma LRG1 With Rapid Decline in Kidney Function in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Elevated levels of plasma leucine-rich α-2-glycoprotein 1 (LRG1), a component of transforming growth factor beta signaling, are associated with development and progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, whether this relationship is causal is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To identify genetic variants associated with plasma LRG1 levels and determine whether genetically predicted plasma LRG1 contributes to a rapid decline in kidney function (RDKF) in patients with T2D.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

We performed a genome-wide association study of plasma LRG1 among 3694 T2D individuals [1881 (983 Chinese, 420 Malay, and 478 Indian) discovery from Singapore Study of Macro-angiopathy and Micro-vascular Reactivity in Type 2 Diabetes cohort and 1813 (Chinese) validation from Diabetic Nephropathy cohort]. One- sample Mendelian randomization analysis was performed among 1337 T2D Chinese participants with preserved glomerular filtration function [baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2)]. RDKF was defined as an eGFR decline of 3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year or greater.

RESULTS

We identified rs4806985 variant near LRG1 locus robustly associated with plasma LRG1 levels (meta P = 6.66 × 10-16). Among 1337 participants, 344 (26%) developed RDKF, and the rs4806985 variant was associated with higher odds of RDKF (meta odds ratio = 1.23, P = 0.030 adjusted for age and sex). Mendelian randomization analysis provided evidence for a potential causal effect of plasma LRG1 on kidney function decline in T2D (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate that genetically influenced plasma LRG1 increases the risk of RDKF in T2D patients, suggesting plasma LRG1 as a potential treatment target. However, further studies are warranted to elucidate underlying pathways to provide insight into diabetic kidney disease prevention.

Combined changes in albuminuria and kidney function and subsequent risk for kidney failure in type 2 diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Changes in albuminuria or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) can be used as a surrogate endpoint of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in people with type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether the combined changes in albuminuria and eGFR are more strongly associated with future risk of ESKD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using data from a multicenter observational cohort study of people with type 2 diabetes, we evaluated the association of percentage change in urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) and/or annual change in eGFR over 2 years with subsequent ESKD risk.

RESULTS

Among 1417 patients with repeated albuminuria and eGFR over 2 years, 129 (9.1%) developed ESKD. Patients with >30% UACR decline had lower ESKD risk (HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.77), whereas those with >30% UACR increase had higher ESKD risk (HR 2.31; 95% CI 1.52 to 3.51), compared with those with minor UACR change. Patients with greater eGFR decline had an increased ESKD risk than those with minor eGFR change (a decline of <2.5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year): HR 4.19 (95% CI 1.87 to 9.38) and 2.89 (95% CI 1.32 to 6.33) for those with a decline of >5 and 2.5-5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year, respectively. When the combined changes in UACR and eGFR were used, the highest ESKD risk (HR 5.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 15.09) was observed among patients with >30% UACR increase and an eGFR decline of >5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year compared with those with a minor change in UACR and eGFR.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined changes in albuminuria and eGFR over 2 years were strongly associated with future risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Visit-to-visit variability of serum uric acid measurements and the risk of all-cause mortality in the general population

Background

Evidence on longitudinal variability of serum uric acid (SUA) and risk of all-cause mortality in the general population is limited, as many prior studies focused on a single measurement of SUA.

Methods

A total of 53,956 participants in the Kailuan study who underwent three health examinations during 2006 to 2010 were enrolled. Variability of SUA was measured using the coefficient of variation (primary index), standard deviation, average real variability, and variability independent of the mean. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association of variability of SUA with subsequent risk of all-cause mortality, considering its magnitude and the direction and across different baseline SUA categories.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 7.04 years, 2728 participants died. The highest variability of SUA was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, the HR was 1.33 (95% CI, 1.20–1.49) compared with the lowest variability. In this group, both a large fall (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.14–1.44) and rise (HR, 1.18; 95% 1.05–1.32) in SUA were related to risk of all-cause mortality. These associations were similar across different baseline SUA categories. Consistent results were observed in alternative measures of SUA variability. Moreover, individuals with higher variability in SUA were more related to common risk factors than those with stable SUA.

Conclusions

Higher variability in SUA was independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality irrespective of baseline SUA and direction of variability in the general population.

Distinct eGFR trajectories are associated with risk of myocardial infarction in people with diabetes or prediabetes

BACKGROUND

The relationship between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories and myocardial infarction (MI) has so far been unclear in people with diabetes or prediabetes. We aimed to identify common eGFR trajectories in people with diabetes or prediabetes and to examine their association with MI risk.

METHODS

The data of this analysis were derived from the Kailuan study, which was a prospective community-based cohort study. The eGFR trajectories of 24 723 participants from the year 2006 to 2012 were generated by latent mixture modeling. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% CI for the subsequent risk of MI of different eGFR trajectories.

RESULTS

We identified five distinct eGFR trajectories during 2006 to 2012 and named them according to their eGFR range and pattern over time: low-stable (9.4%), moderate-stable (31.4%), moderate-increasing (29.5%), high-decreasing (13.9%), and high-stable (15.8%). During a mean follow-up of 4.61 years, there were a total of 235 incident MI. Although the high-decreasing group had similar eGFR levels to the moderate-stable group during the last exposure period, the risk was much higher (adjusted HR, 3.57; 95% CI, 1.63-7.85 vs adjusted HR, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.36-6.08). Notably, the moderate-increasing group had reached the normal range, but still had a significantly increased risk (adjusted HR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.24-5.55).

CONCLUSIONS

eGFR trajectories were associated with MI risk in people with diabetes or prediabetes. These observations suggest that long-term trajectories of eGFR may be important for risk prediction of MI and should be highlighted in primary prevention.

Alternative kidney filtration markers and the risk of major macrovascular and microvascular events, and all-cause mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes in the ADVANCE trial

BACKGROUND

Creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is biased in the setting of obesity and other conditions. Alternative kidney filtration markers may be useful in adults with diabetes, but few studies examined the associations with risk of clinical outcomes.

METHODS

In the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial, we evaluated whether baseline levels and change in eGFR based on creatinine (Cr), cystatin c (Cys), β₂ -microglobulin (B2M), eGFR_Cr-Cys , and the average of three estimates (eGFR_Cr-Cys-B2M ) assessed in 7217 participants at baseline and a random sample of 640 participants at the 1-year visit are associated with clinical outcomes. We examined associations with major macrovascular and microvascular events together and separately and all-cause mortality using Cox regression models, adjusting for established risk factors.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 5 years, 1313 major macrovascular (n = 748) and microvascular events (n = 637), and 743 deaths occurred. Lower levels of eGFR based on all filtration markers individually and combined were associated with 1.4 to 3.0 times higher risk of major macrovascular and microvascular events (combined and separately) and all-cause mortality. Per 30% decline in eGFR_Cys , eGFR _Cr-Cys , and eGFR_Cr-Cys-B2M were associated with a >2-fold higher risk of all clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with type 2 diabetes, baseline levels of eGFR based on alternative filtration markers and per 30% decline in eGFR_Cys , eGFR _Cr-Cys , and eGFR_Cr-Cys-B2M were associated with clinical outcomes. Measurement of alternative filtration markers, particularly B2M in adults with type 2 diabetes may be warranted.

Sphingomyelin and progression of renal and coronary heart disease in individuals with type 1 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Lipid abnormalities are associated with diabetic kidney disease and CHD, although their exact role has not yet been fully explained. Sphingomyelin, the predominant sphingolipid in humans, is crucial for intact glomerular and endothelial function. Therefore, the objective of our study was to investigate whether sphingomyelin impacts kidney disease and CHD progression in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

Individuals (n = 1087) from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy (FinnDiane) prospective cohort study with serum sphingomyelin measured using a proton NMR metabolomics platform were included. Kidney disease progression was defined as change in eGFR or albuminuria stratum. Data on incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and CHD were retrieved from national registries. HRs from Cox regression models and regression coefficients from the logistic or linear regression analyses were reported per 1 SD increase in sphingomyelin level. In addition, receiver operating curves were used to assess whether sphingomyelin improves eGFR decline prediction compared with albuminuria.

RESULTS

During a median (IQR) 10.7 (6.4, 13.5) years of follow-up, sphingomyelin was independently associated with the fastest eGFR decline (lowest 25%; median [IQR] for eGFR change: <-4.4 [-6.8, -3.1] ml min^-1 [1.73 m^-2] year^-1), even after adjustment for classical lipid variables such as HDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerols (OR [95% CI]: 1.36 [1.15, 1.61], p < 0.001). Similarly, sphingomyelin increased the risk of progression to ESRD (HR [95% CI]: 1.53 [1.19, 1.97], p = 0.001). Moreover, sphingomyelin increased the risk of CHD (HR [95% CI]: 1.24 [1.01, 1.52], p = 0.038). However, sphingomyelin did not perform better than albuminuria in the prediction of eGFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study demonstrates for the first time in a prospective setting that sphingomyelin is associated with the fastest eGFR decline and progression to ESRD in type 1 diabetes. In addition, sphingomyelin is a risk factor for CHD. These data suggest that high sphingomyelin level, independently of classical lipid risk factors, may contribute not only to the initiation and progression of kidney disease but also to CHD. Graphical abstract.

Clinical update: The important role of dual kidney function testing (ACR and eGFR) in primary care: Identification of risk and management in type 2 diabetes

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is common complication of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and may lead to progressive kidney dysfunction culminating in end-stage kidney disease. Kidney function is evaluated less frequently than other care procedures in patients with diabetes, even though the opportunity to identify DKD early and slow or even halt renal damage early in the disease progression represents a potentially important clinical opportunity for early intervention. The following review provides an overview of the under-recognised importance of kidney function in T2D and current best-practice to support the identification of DKD as part of primary care T2D management.

Creatinine increase following initiation of antihypertensives is associated with cardiovascular risk: a nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Abrupt decline in renal function following initiation of renin-angiotensin system inhibitor is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, but studies of other antihypertensive drugs are sparse. We investigated the risk of cardiovascular event associated with increased plasma creatinine after initiating first-line antihypertensive treatment.

METHODS

In a nationwide cohort study, we identified adult Danish primary care patients initiating either renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, calcium channel blocker or thiazide, between 2008 and mid-2018. Patients with prior end-stage renal disease, renal transplantation, or cardiovascular disease were excluded. Percentual plasma creatinine increase was calculated between the nearest creatinine measurement up to 1 year before redeeming the prescription (baseline), and the nearest measurement 90 days or less after (index). Multiple logistic regression and restricted cubic splines were applied to estimate the 6-month absolute risk of cardiovascular event (ischemic heart disease, heart failure or stroke) associated with this creatinine increase.

RESULTS

We included 20 789 patients. Within the first 6 months of follow-up, 283 (1.4%) cardiovascular events and 93 (0.4%) all-cause deaths were registered. With a creatinine increase of 0 and 30%, 6-month absolute risk [CI] of cardiovascular event was 1.4% [1.1-1.9] and 3.5% [2.4-5.2], respectively (in men aged 50-79 years with estimated glomerular filtration rate at least 60 ml/min per 1.73 m and no diabetes). Higher age and reduced renal function, but not the type of antihypertensive treatment, were associated with higher cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSION

In primary care, patients initiating first-line antihypertensive treatment, an increase in plasma creatinine above 30% was associated with increased absolute 6-month risk of cardiovascular event.

Observational analyses from ADVANCE and ADVANCE-ON

AIMS

To explain, and document, the epidemiological work associated with the action in diabetes and vascular disease: preterax and diamicron-modified release controlled evaluation (ADVANCE) clinical trial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

ADVANCE was designed as a randomized controlled multicentre factorial trial in high-risk patients with diabetes. The two interventions were blood pressure lowering medications versus placebo, and intensive glucose control versus standard glucose control. Following termination of the trial, an observational study of surviving participants, able to join, was mounted: the ADVANCE - observational study (ADVANCE-ON). Other epidemiological analyses that were undertaken treated the trial as a cohort study, including using biomarkers from the blood samples taken from ADVANCE subjects as risk exposures.

RESULTS

More than 50 publications have reported epidemiological results from ADVANCE. The main results from ADVANCE-ON suggested attenuated benefits of ADVANCE's blood pressure lowering treatment on all-cause and cardiovascular death, but no such long-term benefits for intensive glucose control, although this did give persistent benefit for end-stage renal disease. The other epidemiological studies found, amongst other things, strong effects of NT-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on macrovascular events, microvascular events and all-cause death.

CONCLUSIONS

Embedding post-randomization and epidemiological analyses into clinical trials is worthwhile and can be highly productive in advancing scientific knowledge.

Comparative Effectiveness of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors Versus Other Classes of Glucose-Lowering Medications on Renal Outcome in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) therapy is associated with a favorable renal prognosis for patients with type 2 diabetes melllitus (T2DM) outside the clinical trials setting.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed routinely collected health care records of ∼160 medical institutions in Japan from April 1, 2014, to December 31, 2017/2018 (varying at the institutional level). Adults with T2DM but without end-stage renal disease who initiated either SGLT2i or other classes of glucose-lowering medications (o-GLM) were matched using propensity score. The primary outcome was the time course of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) displayed in spline curve. The composite of renal worsening (>40% decline in eGFR) and the development of eGFR<30 mL/1.73 m² per minute was evaluated as a secondary outcome. Two sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the robustness of results.

RESULTS

We compared a matched cohort of 1433 SGLT2i users and 2739 o-GLM users (mean age: 61 years). The eGFR declined over time in both groups during the observation period (median: 17 months; maximum: 54 months), with a slower eGFR slope observed in SGLT2i users. This slower decline was consistently observed across different SGLT2i agents and different baseline eGFR groups. The cumulative incidence of composite renal endpoints was lower in the SGLT2i group with a hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.50-0.98; P=.039). Those findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses limited to the period adherent to the initial drug regimen and with a different approach for propensity score calculation.

CONCLUSION

In a matched cohort of T2DM patients, SGLT2i use was associated with preserved renal function relative to o-GLM use over 2 to 4 years.

Efficacy of dapagliflozin versus sitagliptin on cardiometabolic risk factors in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes: a prospective, randomized study (DIVERSITY-CVR)

Background

Few prospective studies have compared the cardiovascular benefits of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors. We aimed to clarify the efficacy of dapagliflozin versus sitagliptin for modulating cardiometabolic risk factors including high glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, hypoglycemia, and body weight.

Methods

This prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint, parallel-group trial enrolled 340 Japanese patients with early-stage type 2 diabetes receiving metformin alone or no glucose-lowering agents, who were randomized to receive dapagliflozin or sitagliptin for 24 weeks. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients who achieved the composite endpoint of HbA1c level maintenance < 7.0% (53 mmol/mol), avoidance of hypoglycemia (maintenance of sensor glucose ≥ 3.0 mmol/L or ≥ 54 mg/dL), and ≥ 3.0% body weight loss from baseline. Secondary endpoints included components of the primary endpoint, other metabolic indices, and glucose variability indices measured using flash glucose monitoring.

Results

Clinical characteristics of patients were age, 58.1 ± 12.2 years; known duration of diabetes, 5.8 ± 6.1 years; body weight, 74.7 ± 14.2 kg; body mass index, 27.9 ± 4.1 kg/m²; and HbA1c level, 7.8 ± 0.8% at baseline. The achievement ratio of primary endpoint was significantly higher in the dapagliflozin group than in the sitagliptin group (24.4% vs. 13.8%, P < 0.05). While the rates of HbA1c level maintenance < 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) and avoidance of hypoglycemia were comparable between the groups (49.4 vs. 50.0% and 88.7 vs. 92.3% for dapagliflozin vs. sitagliptin, respectively), body weight loss of ≥ 3.0% was significantly achieved in the dapagliflozin group (54.4 vs. 19.6%, P < 0.001). Moreover, dapagliflozin was superior to sitagliptin regarding several secondary endpoints that modulate cardiometabolic risk, namely reducing fasting plasma glucose, insulin, uric acid, increasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and suppressing the increase in serum creatinine and the decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. On the other hand, sitagliptin was superior to dapagliflozin in suppressing glucose variability.

Conclusions

Compared to sitagliptin, dapagliflozin was significantly more effective at improving cardiometabolic risk factors, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors might be more suitable than DPP-4 inhibitors for preventing cardiovascular events in patients with early-stage but inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes.

Trial registration Trial number, UMIN000028014; registered on June 30, 2017