Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees

The stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit drives the apparent temperature response of photosynthesis in tropical forests

As temperature rises, net carbon uptake in tropical forests decreases, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. High temperatures can limit photosynthesis directly, for example by reducing biochemical capacity, or indirectly through rising vapor pressure deficit (VPD) causing stomatal closure. To explore the independent effects of temperature and VPD on photosynthesis we analyzed photosynthesis data from the upper canopies of two tropical forests in Panama with Generalized Additive Models. Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis consistently decreased with increasing VPD, and statistically accounting for VPD increased the optimum temperature of photosynthesis (Topt) of trees from a VPD-confounded apparent Topt of c. 30-31°C to a VPD-independent Topt of c. 33-36°C, while for lianas no VPD-independent Topt was reached within the measured temperature range. Trees and lianas exhibited similar temperature and VPD responses in both forests, despite 1500 mm difference in mean annual rainfall. Over ecologically relevant temperature ranges, photosynthesis in tropical forests is largely limited by indirect effects of warming, through changes in VPD, not by direct warming effects of photosynthetic biochemistry. Failing to account for VPD when determining Topt misattributes the underlying causal mechanism and thereby hinders the advancement of mechanistic understanding of global warming effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics.

Water uptake patterns of tropical canopy trees in Borneo: species-specific and temporal variation and relationships with aboveground traits

Root water uptake depth and its temporal variation are important determinants of tree mortality, resource partitioning and drought resistance; however, their effects on tropical trees remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated interspecific differences in water uptake depth and its temporal variation using stable isotope analysis and examined the relationships between water uptake depth and aboveground traits in a humid aseasonal tropical rainforest in Borneo. Species-specific differences in water uptake depth were examined for six dominant dipterocarp species. Temporal variation in water uptake depth for various canopy trees was assessed in three periods with different soil moisture conditions. We then examined the relationships between water uptake depth and aboveground traits including wood density, maximum tree height, flowering frequency and growth rate. Dipterocarpus globosus appeared to be more reliant on deep water resources than the other dipterocarp species. Water uptake from the soil layers varied among the three sampling periods. Trees generally utilized deeper soil water during the second driest sampling period, when temperatures were lowest. During the driest and wettest sampling periods, species with higher flowering frequencies tended to preferentially uptake deep soil water. These results suggest that low temperature and soil moisture promote increased deep soil water uptake in the study region. Dynamic relationships between water uptake patterns and aboveground tree traits may be related to resource partitioning among co-existing species.

Warming shifts soil microbial communities and tropical tree seedling mortality

Plant-soil feedback (PSF), regulated by both mycorrhizae and soil-borne pathogens, is a primary mechanism maintaining high tree species diversity in the tropics. But how warming actually affects PSF is not well understood. We conducted a field warming experiment to test PSF on seedling mortality of two tree species: a rhizobia-associated tree (Ormosia semicastrata, Fabaceae) suffering from host-specific soil-borne pathogens and an ectomycorrhizal fungi-associated tree (Cyclobalanopsis patelliormis, Fagaceae) with low susceptibility to soil-borne pathogens. Soil fungi from the warming versus control seedling plots were identified by molecular sequencing. Results showed that the elevated temperature lowered seedling mortality of O. semicastrata, but had no effect on C. patelliormis seedlings. This indicates that warming weakened the negative PSF on O. semicastrata, presumably due to the observed decrease of the relative abundance of plant-pathogenic fungi and increase of ectomycorrhizal fungi but did not affect the PSF on C. patelliormis. The differential warming effects on seedling mortality of species with different microbial associations afford an example showcasing how the change in soil-borne microbes in response to global warming would in turn, through PSF, alters tropical tree species composition and diversity. This study helps shed mechanistic light on the debate of biodiversity change as driven by climate change.

Paired analysis of tree ring width and carbon isotopes indicates when controls on tropical tree growth change from light to water limitations

Light and water availability are likely to vary over the lifespan of closed-canopy forest trees, with understory trees experiencing greater limitations to growth by light and canopy trees greater limitation due to drought. As drought and shade have opposing effects on isotope discrimination (Δ13C), paired measurement of ring width and Δ13C can potentially be used to differentiate between water and light limitations on tree growth. We tested this approach for Cedrela trees from three tropical forests in Bolivia and Mexico that differ in rainfall and canopy structure. Using lifetime ring width and Δ13C data for trees of up to and over 200 years old, we assessed how controls on tree growth changed from understory to the canopy. Growth and Δ13C are mostly anti-correlated in the understory, but this anti-correlation disappeared or weakened when trees reached the canopy, especially at the wettest site. This indicates that understory growth variation is controlled by photosynthetic carbon assimilation due to variation in light levels. Once trees reached the canopy, inter-annual variation in growth and Δ13C at one of the dry sites showed positive correlations, indicating that inter-annual variation in growth is driven by variation in water stress affecting stomatal conductance. Paired analysis of ring widths and carbon isotopes provides significant insight in what environmental factors control growth over a tree's life; strong light limitations for understory trees in closed-canopy moist forests switched to drought stress for (sub)canopy trees in dry forests. We show that combined isotope and ring width measurements can significantly improve our insights in tree functioning and be used to disentangle limitations due to shade from those due to drought.

The Efficiency of Forest Management Investment in Key State-Owned Forest Regions under the Carbon Neutral Target: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province, China

To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon sinks in state-owned forest regions (SOFRs) and the efficiency of increased carbon sinks, this study used panel data from 19 periods in 40 key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, combined with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, the individual fixed-effect model was used to estimate the number of forest management investment (FMI) lagging periods, and the panel threshold model was used to investigate the differences in the FMI efficiency in various forest regions. From 2001 to 2019, the carbon sink of key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend over time, with a growth rate of 20.17%. Spatially, the phenomenon of “increasing as a whole and decreasing in a small area” was found, and the carbon sink of each forest region varied greatly. The standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sink presented a “southeast–northwest” pattern and had “from southeast to northwest” migration characteristics. The FMI amount from 2001 to 2019 showed an upward trend, with a total of CNY 46.745 billion, and varied greatly among forest regions. Additionally, the carbon sink amount in each SOFR affected the FMI efficiency. The threshold of the model was 5,327,211.8707 tons, and the elastic coefficients of the impact of FMI below and above the threshold on the carbon sink were 0.00953 and 0.02175, respectively. The latter’s FMI efficiency was 128.23% higher than that of the former. Finally, the increase in FMI to a carbon sink followed the law of diminishing marginal benefits. Therefore, the government should rationally plan the level of FMI in each SOFR to improve the FMI cost-effectiveness and help achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”.

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

Plant dynamics in a tropical dry forest are strongly associated with climate and fire and weakly associated with stabilizing neighborhood effects

Studies comparing the relative strengths of multiple key drivers of forest dynamics are rare, but can inform both our fundamental understanding of plant communities as well as community-ecology theory. We studied the dynamics of a woody plant community in a southern Indian seasonally-dry tropical forest (SDTF) in relation to environmental factors (precipitation, temperature, fire, soil nutrients, and topography) and conspecific and heterospecific plant neighborhoods to identify which of these best predicted recruitment, survival and growth of dominant species over a 24-year study period. We also assessed the relative prevalence of density-independent and density-dependent responses in the community. Climate and fire were more important than plant neighborhoods and topographic and edaphic variables in explaining variation in plant performance. Recruitment, survival and growth were lower during periods of low precipitation and immediately following fires. Recruitment increased, and growth and survival largely decreased, with increasing temperatures. Smaller-sized individuals were disproportionately strongly affected by the vagaries of climate and fire. Conspecific negative density-dependence, a population-fluctuation stabilizing process, was relatively unimportant. Density-dependent effects decayed rapidly with distance from the focal plant (growth, survival) or quadrat (recruitment); positive density-dependence was frequently found in recruitment, possibly resulting from limited dispersal and/or facilitation. Woody plant dynamics in this SDTF appear to be responding largely to fluctuations in environmental conditions, particularly precipitation, temperature, and fire. In contrast to wetter forests, population-fluctuation stabilizing processes in this ecosystem appear to be relatively weak. Changes in climatic or fire regimes are likely to result in large compositional shifts in this SDTF.

Floristic Groups, and Changes in Diversity and Structure of Trees, in Tropical Montane Forests in the Southern Andes of Ecuador

Composition, diversity, and structure of trees in tropical montane forests are responsive to ecological gradients and local succession. Those parameters are a result of ecological interactions between vegetation, environment, and location. This study identified floristic groups on mainly secondary forests and evaluated how the composition, diversity, and structure of trees correlate with climate, soil, and age since abandonment. We included in our models a measurement of spatial correlation, to explore the role of dispersion. For this purpose, we measured diameter and height of all trees with DBH ≥ 10 cm, in twenty-eight 500 m2 plots, in an elevation range between 2900 and 3500 m. We found 14 indicator species in three floristic groups. Group composition was explained by age since abandonment, which showed strong succession effects. Mean monthly precipitation and Manganese, but not spatial correlation, explained plant composition in these montane forests, suggesting a minor role of dispersion. Species richness and structure of the arboreal vegetation were influenced by interactions between age, precipitation, and soil nutrients concentration. We concluded that in fragmented landscapes, within the rugged region of southern Ecuador, it is possible to find different floristic groups that encompass high variation in their composition.

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth's changing climate. However, while many studies have considered variation in productivity with latitude and climate, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database, representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively review how annual C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. Across all flux variables analyzed, rates of C cycling decreased continuously with absolute latitude-a finding that confirms multiple previous studies and contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature or temperature seasonality in particular, were the best single predictors of C flux, explaining 19%-71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. Annual C fluxes increased with growing season length and were also influenced by growing season climate. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In an era when forests will play a critical yet uncertain role in shaping Earth's rapidly changing climate, our synthesis provides a foundation for understanding global patterns in forest C cycling.

Tree-ring δ18O climate signals vary among tree functional types in South Asian tropical moist forests

We present the first annually resolved and statistically reliable tree-ring δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_T) chronologies for the three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem., and Lagerstroemia speciosa Roxb.) which differ in their shade tolerance and resistance to water stress. We found significantly higher mean δ¹⁸O_T values in light-demanding T. ciliata than in intermediate shade tolerant C. tabularis and shade tolerant L. speciosa (p < 0.001). δ¹⁸O_T in C. tabularis was mainly influenced by pre-monsoon vapor pressure deficit (VPD; r = -0.54, p < 0.01) and post monsoon maximum temperature (T_max) (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). δ¹⁸O_T in T. ciliata was strongly negatively correlated with a dry season drought index PDSI (r = -0.65, p < 0.001) and VPD (r = -0.58, p < 0.001). Pre-monsoon T_max was strongly positively linked with δ¹⁸O_T in L. speciosa (r = 0.65, p < 0.001), indicating that climatic influences on δ¹⁸O_T are species-specific and vary among tree functional types. Although there was a week correlation between local precipitation and δ¹⁸O_T in our studied species, we found a strong correlation between δ¹⁸O_T and precipitation at a larger spatial scale. Linear mixed effect models revealed that multiple factors improved model performance only in C. tabularis, yielding the best model, which combined VPD and T_max. The top models in T. ciliata and L. speciosa included only the single factors PDSI and T_max, highlighting that the way C. tabularis interacts with climate is more complex when compared with other two species. Our analyses suggest that stable oxygen isotope composition in tree rings of South Asian tropical moist forest trees are a suitable proxy of local and regional climate variability and are an important tool for understanding the physiological mechanisms associated with the global hydrological cycle.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.

Global tree-ring analysis reveals rapid decrease in tropical tree longevity with temperature

Forests are the largest terrestrial biomass pool, with over half of this biomass stored in the highly productive tropical lowland forests. The future evolution of forest biomass depends critically on the response of tree longevity and growth rates to future climate. We present an analysis of the variation in tree longevity and growth rate using tree-ring data of 3,343 populations and 438 tree species and assess how climate controls growth and tree longevity across world biomes. Tropical trees grow, on average, two times faster compared to trees from temperate and boreal biomes and live significantly shorter, on average (186 ± 138 y compared to 322 ± 201 y outside the tropics). At the global scale, growth rates and longevity covary strongly with temperature. Within the warm tropical lowlands, where broadleaf species dominate the vegetation, we find consistent decreases in tree longevity with increasing aridity, as well as a pronounced reduction in longevity above mean annual temperatures of 25.4 °C. These independent effects of temperature and water availability on tree longevity in the tropics are consistent with theoretical predictions of increases in evaporative demands at the leaf level under a warmer and drier climate and could explain observed increases in tree mortality in tropical forests, including the Amazon, and shifts in forest composition in western Africa. Our results suggest that conditions supporting only lower tree longevity in the tropical lowlands are likely to expand under future drier and especially warmer climates.

Recent CO2 rise has modified the sensitivity of tropical tree growth to rainfall and temperature

Atmospheric CO₂ (c_a ) rise changes the physiology and possibly growth of tropical trees, but these effects are likely modified by climate. Such c_a  × climate interactions importantly drive CO₂ fertilization effects of tropical forests predicted by global vegetation models, but have not been tested empirically. Here we use tree-ring analyses to quantify how c_a rise has shifted the sensitivity of tree stem growth to annual fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. We hypothesized that c_a rise reduces drought sensitivity and increases temperature sensitivity of growth, by reducing transpiration and increasing leaf temperature. These responses were expected for cooler sites. At warmer sites, c_a rise may cause leaf temperatures to frequently exceed the optimum for photosynthesis, and thus induce increased drought sensitivity and stronger negative effects of temperature. We tested these hypotheses using measurements of 5,318 annual rings from 129 trees of the widely distributed (sub-)tropical tree species, Toona ciliata. We studied growth responses during 1950-2014, a period during which c_a rose by 28%. Tree-ring data were obtained from two cooler (mean annual temperature: 20.5-20.7°C) and two warmer (23.5-24.8°C) sites. We tested c_a  × climate interactions, using mixed-effect models of ring-width measurements. Our statistical models revealed several significant and robust c_a  × climate interactions. At cooler sites (and seasons), c_a  × climate interactions showed good agreement with hypothesized growth responses of reduced drought sensitivity and increased temperature sensitivity. At warmer sites, drought sensitivity increased with increasing c_a , as predicted, and hot years caused stronger growth reduction at high c_a . Overall, c_a rise has significantly modified sensitivity of Toona stem growth to climatic variation, but these changes depended on mean climate. Our study suggests that effects of c_a rise on tropical tree growth may be more complex and less stimulatory than commonly assumed and require a better representation in global vegetation models.

Increased Drought Sensitivity Results in a Declining Tree Growth of Pinus latteri in Northeastern Thailand

Climate change may lead to alterations in tree growth and carbon cycling. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of tree species. However, the effects of climate change on pine forest dynamics in tropical region of Thailand remain poorly understood. This study develops three new tree ring-width chronologies of Pinus latteri (Tenasserim pine) in northern and northeastern Thailand and analyzes their climate-growth relationships and temporal stability. Ring-width chronologies of P. latteri at three sites showed significantly positive correlations with precipitation, relative humidity and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the dry season (previous November to current April) and early rainy season (May–June). Conversely, significantly negative correlations were found between ring-width site chronologies and air temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) from April to August. Therefore, our results revealed that radial growth of Tenasserim pines from northern and northeastern Thailand was mainly limited by moisture availability during the dry-to-wet transition season from April to June. Moving correlations revealed that Tenasserim pines in the lowland area of northeastern Thailand became more sensitive to moisture availability in recent 30 years (1985–2017) as compared with early period (1951–1984). Accompanying the shifted growth sensitivity to climate change, growth synchrony among trees was increasing and tree growth rates of Tenasserim pines have been declining during recent decades at two more moisture-limited sites in northeastern Thailand. Recent rapid warming and increasing drought during the transition season (April–June) together intensify climatic constrains on tree growth of Tenasserim pines in the lowland area of northeastern Thailand. Considering continued regional climate change, pine forests in tropical lowland areas may encounter intensified drought stresses, and thus, become more vulnerable to future climate change. Our results serve as an early indicator of potential effects of climate change on tropical pine species and raise concerns about sustainable managements of pine forests under a changing climate.

Diametric Growth of Tree Species in the Atlantic Forest, Paraná, Brazil

Management of remnants in Atlantic Forest is an alternative for their conservation, however, information on the growth and ecology of those species is lacking. This study aimed to describe diametric growth of Balfourodendron riedelianum, Cordia trichotoma and Ocotea diospyrifolia based on its growth rings and to verify the relationship between this growth with the environmental characteristics in different altitude levels and forest types. Diametric growth was higher for the largest tree diameters of the three species. Based on the fitted growth model, the age in which mean annual increment in diameter becomes greater than the current annual increment was 55 years for B. riedelianum (DBH = 18.27 cm), 45 years for C. trichotoma (DBH = 26.56 cm) and 44 years for O. diospyrifolia (DBH = 26.05 cm). Environmental conditions and forest types affected diametric growth of these species. B. riedelianum and O. diospyrifolia showed higher diametric growth in plain regions with higher fertility soil and few frosts. C. trichotoma was negatively affected by low water availability in winter at lower altitudes and showed higher diametric growth at higher altitudes, where soil fertility is low but there is well-drainage, high rainfall and high relative humidity during the dry season.

Comparing independent climate-sensitive models of aboveground biomass and diameter growth with their compatible simultaneous model system for three larch species in China

Accurate estimate of tree biomass is essential for forest management. In recent years, several climate-sensitive allometric biomass models with diameter at breast height [Formula: see text] as a predictor have been proposed for various tree species and climate zones to estimate tree aboveground biomass (AGB). But the allometric models only account for the potential effects of climate on tree biomass and do not simultaneously explain the influence of climate on [Formula: see text] growth. In this study, based on the AGB data from 256 destructively sampled trees of three larch species randomly distributed across the five secondary climate zones in northeastern and northern China, we first developed a climate-sensitive AGB base model and a climate-sensitive [Formula: see text] growth base model using a nonlinear least square regression separately. A compatible simultaneous model system was then developed with the climate-sensitive AGB and [Formula: see text] growth models using a nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression. The potential effects of several temperature and precipitation variables on AGB and [Formula: see text] growth were evaluated. The fitting results of climatic sensitive base models were compared against those of their compatible simultaneous model system. It was found that a decreased isothermality ([mean of monthly (maximum temperature-minimum temperature)]/(Maximum temperature of the warmest month-Minimum temperature of the coldest month)) and total growing season precipitation, and increased annual precipitation significantly increased the values of AGB; an increase of temperature seasonality (a standard deviation of the mean monthly temperature) and precipitation seasonality (a standard deviation of the mean monthly precipitation) could lead to the increase of [Formula: see text]. The differences of the model fitting results between the compatible simultaneous system with the consideration of climate effects on both AGB and [Formula: see text] growth and its corresponding climate-sensitive AGB and [Formula: see text] growth base models were very small and insignificant [Formula: see text]. Compared to the base models, the inherent correlation of AGB with [Formula: see text] was taken into account effectively by the proposed compatible model system developed with the climate-sensitive AGB and [Formula: see text] growth models. In addition, the compatible properties of the estimated AGB and [Formula: see text] were also addressed substantially in the proposed model system.

Measures for sustainable forest management in the tropics - A tree-ring based case study on tree growth and forest dynamics in a Central Amazonian lowland moist forest

The conservation of tropical forests is recognized as one of the most important challenges for forestry, ecology and politics. Besides strict protection, the sustainable management of natural forests should be enhanced as a key part of the foundation for the maintenance of tropical rain forest ecosystems. Due to methodological reasons it has been complicated to attain reliable growth data to plan sustainable felling cycles and rotation periods. Tree ring analyses enable the estimation of growth rates over the entire life span of trees and their age as well as giving hints from forest dynamics in previous centuries. For tree ring analysis, stem disk samples were taken from three important commercial tree species (Cariniana micrantha, Caryocar villosum and Manilkara huberi) in the upland (terra firme) forests of the Precious Woods Amazon logging company near Itacoatiara, Brazil. Based on radiocarbon estimates of individual growth zones, the annual nature of tree rings was proven for the three species. Tree rings were measured and the results used together with height estimates to model diameter, height and volume growth. The age of the eldest tree, a C. micrantha, was 585 yrs with 165 cm in diameter. The species’ diameter increments range from 0.20±0.12 cm yr^-1 to 0.29±0.08 cm yr^-1. At first sight, this is considerably lower than increments reported from other Amazonian or African timber species. Considering the respective wood density there is no significant difference in growth performance of dominant timber species across continents. The interpretation of lifetime tree ring curves indicate differences in shadow tolerance among species, the persistence of individuals in the understory for up to 150 years and natural stand dynamics without major disturbances. Management criteria should be adapted for the measured growth rates as they differed considerably from the Brazilian standards fixed by laws (felling cycle of 25–35 years and a common minimum logging diameter of 50 cm). Felling cycles should be increased to 32–51 years and minimum logging diameters to 63–123 cm depending on the species.

Exploring the Sensitivity of Subtropical Stand Aboveground Productivity to Local and Regional Climate Signals in South China

Subtropical forest productivity is significantly affected by both natural disturbances (local and regional climate changes) and anthropogenic activities (harvesting and planting). Monthly measures of forest aboveground productivity from natural forests (primary and secondary forests) and plantations (mixed and single-species forests) were developed to explore the sensitivity of subtropical mountain productivity to the fluctuating characteristics of climate change in South China, spanning the 35-year period from 1981 to 2015. Statistical analysis showed that climate regulation differed across different forest types. The monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were positively correlated with primary and mixed-forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components: Wood productivity (WP) and canopy productivity (CP). However, the monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were negatively correlated with secondary and single-species forest ANPP and its components. The number of dry days and minimum temperature were positively associated with secondary and single-species forest productivity, but inversely associated with primary and mixed forest productivity. The multivariate ENSO (EI Niño-Southern Oscillation) index (MEI), computed based on sea level pressure, surface temperature, surface air temperature, and cloudiness over the tropical Pacific Ocean, was significantly correlated with local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), precipitation (PRE), streamflow (FLO), and the number of dry days (DD), as well as the monthly means of primary and mixed forest aboveground productivity. In particular, the mean maximum temperature increased by 2.5, 0.9, 6.5, and 0.9 °C, and the total forest aboveground productivity decreased by an average of 5.7%, 3.0%, 2.4%, and 7.8% in response to the increased extreme high temperatures and drought events during the 1986/1988, 1997/1998, 2006/2007, and 2009/2010 EI Niño periods, respectively. Subsequently, the total aboveground productivity values increased by an average of 1.1%, 3.0%, 0.3%, and 8.6% because of lagged effects after the wet La Niña periods. The main conclusions of this study demonstrated that the influence of local and regional climatic fluctuations on subtropical forest productivity significantly differed across different forests, and community position and plant diversity differences among different forest types may prevent the uniform response of subtropical mountain aboveground productivity to regional climate anomalies. Therefore, these findings may be useful for forecasting climate-induced variation in forest aboveground productivity as well as for selecting tree species for planting in reforestation practices.

Untargeted Metabolomics of Nicotiana tabacum Grown in United States and India Characterizes the Association of Plant Metabolomes With Natural Climate and Geography

Climate change and geography affect all the living organisms. To date, the effects of climate and geographical factors on plant metabolome largely remain open for worldwide and local investigations. In this study, we designed field experiments with tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in India versus USA and used untargeted metabolomics to understand the association of two weather factors and two different continental locations with respect to tobacco metabolism. Field research stations in Oxford, North Carolina, USA, and Rajahmundry, Andhra Pradesh India were selected to grow a commercial tobacco genotype (K326) for 2 years. Plant growth, field management, and leaf curing followed protocols standardized for tobacco cultivation. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry based unbiased profiling annotated 171 non-polar and 225 polar metabolites from cured tobacco leaves. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) showed that two growing years and two field locations played primary and secondary roles affecting metabolite profiles, respectively. PCA and Pearson analysis, which used nicotine, 11 other groups of metabolites, two locations, temperatures, and precipitation, revealed that in North Carolina, temperature changes were positively associated with the profiles of sesquiterpenes, diterpenes, and triterpenes, but negatively associated with the profiles of nicotine, organic acids of tricarboxylic acid, and sugars; in addition, precipitation was positively associated with the profiles of triterpenes. In India, temperature was positively associated with the profiles of benzenes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, but negatively associated with the profiles of amino acids and sugar. Further comparative analysis revealed that nicotine levels were affected by weather conditions, nevertheless, its trend in leaves was independent of two geographical locations and weather changes. All these findings suggested that climate and geographical variation significantly differentiated the tobacco metabolism.

Changes in Sensitivity of Tree-Ring Widths to Climate in a Tropical Moist Forest Tree in Bangladesh

Tree growth in the tropics is strongly influenced by climate. However, reported tree growth responses to climate are largely inconsistent, varying with geographic location, forest type, and tree species. It is thus important to study the growth responses of tropical trees in sites and species that are under-represented so far. Bangladesh, a country influenced by the Asian monsoon climate, is understudied in terms of tree growth response to climate. In the present study, we developed a 121-year-long regional ring-width index chronology of Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss. sampled in two moist forest sites in Bangladesh to investigate tree growth responses to climate in monsoon South Asia. Standard dendrochronological methods were used to produce the ring-width chronologies. The climate sensitivity of C. tabularis was assessed through bootstrap correlation analysis and the stationarity and consistency of climate–growth relationships was evaluated using moving correlation functions and comparing the regression slopes of two sub-periods (1950–1985 and 1986–2015). Tree growth was negatively correlated with the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures, particularly during the early growing season (March). Likewise, precipitation negatively influenced tree growth in the later growing season (October). Besides, radial growth of Chukrasia sharply ceased in years following strong and moderate El Niño events. In parallel with a significant positive trend in local temperatures, tree growth sensitivity to early growing season (March–April) mean temperatures and July minimum temperatures increased in recent decades. Tree growth sensitivity to October precipitation and April vapor pressure deficit also increased. Overall, climate–growth relationships were stronger during the period 1986–2015 than during 1950–1985. Changes in climate sensitivity might be linked to a warming trend that induced an increase in the dry season length during recent decades. With a further predicted temperature increase at our study sites, our results suggest that radial growth of C. tabularis will further decline in response to climate warming.

Long-Term Hydraulic Adjustment of Three Tropical Moist Forest Tree Species to Changing Climate

Xylem hydraulic adjustment to global climatic changes was reported from temperate, boreal, and Mediterranean tree species. Yet, the long-term hydraulic adjustment in tropical tree species has not been studied so far. Here we developed the first standard chronologies of three hydraulic trait variables for three South Asian moist forest tree species to analyze their long-term hydraulic responses to changing climate. Based on wood anatomical measurements, we calculated Hagen-Poiseuille hydraulically weighted vessel diameter (DH), potential specific hydraulic conductivity (KS), and vulnerability index (VX) and developed standard chronologies of these variables for Chukrasia tabularis, Toona ciliata, and Lagerstroemia speciosa which are different in their xylem structure, wood density, shade tolerance, growth rates, and habitat preferences. Bootstrap correlation analysis revealed that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) strongly positively influenced the xylem water transport capacity in C. tabularis, whereas T. ciliata was affected by both temperature and precipitation. The hydraulic conductivity of L. speciosa was mainly affected by temperature. Different adjustment strategies were observed among the species, probably due to the differences in life history strategies and xylem properties. No positive relationship of conductivity and radial growth was found, but a trade-off between hydraulic safety and efficiency was observed in all studied species.

Seasonal changes of δD and δ18O in tree-ring cellulose of Quercus crispula suggest a change in post-photosynthetic processes during earlywood growth

Leaf photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic processes modulate the isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose. Post-photosynthetic processes, such as the remobilization of stored starch in early spring, are important to understanding the mechanisms of xylem formation in tree stems; however, untangling the isotope ratio signals of photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic processes imprinted on tree rings is difficult. Portions of carbon-bound hydrogen and oxygen atoms are exchanged with medium water during post-photosynthetic processes. We investigated the δD and δ18O values of tree-ring cellulose using Quercus crispula Blume trees in two different habitats to evaluate seasonal changes in the exchange rate (f-value) of hydrogen or oxygen with medium water, and examined the associations of the post-photosynthetic processes. Theoretically, if the f-value is constant, δD and δ18O would be positively correlated due to meteorological factors, while variation in the f-value will create a discrepancy and weak correlation between δD and δ18O due to the exchange of carbon-bound hydrogen and oxygen with medium water. The values of δD decreased drastically from earlywood to latewood, while those of δ18O increased to a peak and then decreased toward the latewood. The estimated seasonal f-value was high at the beginning of earlywood and decreased toward the latewood. The post-photosynthetic processes associated with changes in the f-value were the remobilization of stored starch and triose cycling during cellulose synthesis because of the shortage of photo-assimilates in early spring. Although we did not evaluate relevant physiological parameters, the seasonal pattern of δD and δ18O in tree-ring cellulose of Q. crispula was clear, suggesting that the dual isotope (δD and δ18O) approach can be used to reveal the resource allocation mechanisms underlying seasonal xylem formation.

Rainfall seasonality and drought performance shape the distribution of tropical tree species in Ghana

Tree species distribution in lowland tropical forests is strongly associated with rainfall amount and distribution. Not only plant water availability, but also irradiance, soil fertility, and pest pressure covary along rainfall gradients. To assess the role of water availability in shaping species distribution, we carried out a reciprocal transplanting experiment in gaps in a dry and a wet forest site in Ghana, using 2,670 seedlings of 23 tree species belonging to three contrasting rainfall distributions groups (dry species, ubiquitous species, and wet species). We evaluated seasonal patterns in climatic conditions, seedling physiology and performance (survival and growth) over a 2-year period and related seedling performance to species distribution along Ghana's rainfall gradient. The dry forest site had, compared to the wet forest, higher irradiance, and soil nutrient availability and experienced stronger atmospheric drought (2.0 vs. 0.6 kPa vapor pressure deficit) and reduced soil water potential (-5.0 vs. -0.6 MPa soil water potential) during the dry season. In both forests, dry species showed significantly higher stomatal conductance and lower leaf water potential, than wet species, and in the dry forest, dry species also realized higher drought survival and growth rate than wet species. Dry species are therefore more drought tolerant, and unlike the wet forest species, they achieve a home advantage. Species drought performance in the dry forest relative to the wet forest significantly predicted species position on the rainfall gradient in Ghana, indicating that the ability to grow and survive better in dry forests and during dry seasons may allow species to occur in low rainfall areas. Drought is therefore an important environmental filter that influences forest composition and dynamics. Currently, many tropical forests experience increase in frequency and intensity of droughts, and our results suggest that this may lead to reduction in tree productivity and shifts in species distribution.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Woody-plant ecosystems under climate change and air pollution-response consistencies across zonobiomes?

Forests store the largest terrestrial pools of carbon (C), helping to stabilize the global climate system, yet are threatened by climate change (CC) and associated air pollution (AP, highlighting ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)). We adopt the perspective that CC-AP drivers and physiological impacts are universal, resulting in consistent stress responses of forest ecosystems across zonobiomes. Evidence supporting this viewpoint is presented from the literature on ecosystem gross/net primary productivity and water cycling. Responses to CC-AP are compared across evergreen/deciduous foliage types, discussing implications of nutrition and resource turnover at tree and ecosystem scales. The availability of data is extremely uneven across zonobiomes, yet unifying patterns of ecosystem response are discernable. Ecosystem warming results in trade-offs between respiration and biomass production, affecting high elevation forests more than in the lowland tropics and low-elevation temperate zone. Resilience to drought is modulated by tree size and species richness. Elevated O3 tends to counteract stimulation by elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). Biotic stress and genomic structure ultimately determine ecosystem responsiveness. Aggrading early- rather than mature late-successional communities respond to CO2 enhancement, whereas O3 affects North American and Eurasian tree species consistently under free-air fumigation. Insect herbivory is exacerbated by CC-AP in biome-specific ways. Rhizosphere responses reflect similar stand-level nutritional dynamics across zonobiomes, but are modulated by differences in tree-soil nutrient cycling between deciduous and evergreen systems, and natural versus anthropogenic nitrogen (N) oversupply. The hypothesis of consistency of forest responses to interacting CC-AP is supported by currently available data, establishing the precedent for a global network of long-term coordinated research sites across zonobiomes to simultaneously advance both bottom-up (e.g., mechanistic) and top-down (systems-level) understanding. This global, synthetic approach is needed because high biological plasticity and physiographic variation across individual ecosystems currently limit development of predictive models of forest responses to CC-AP. Integrated research on C and nutrient cycling, O3-vegetation interactions and water relations must target mechanisms' ecosystem responsiveness. Worldwide case studies must be subject to biostatistical exploration to elucidate overarching response patterns and synthesize the resulting empirical data through advanced modelling, in order to provide regionally coherent, yet globally integrated information in support of internationally coordinated decision-making and policy development.

Does Cedrela always form annual rings? Testing ring periodicity across South America using radiocarbon dating

KEY MESSAGE

Radiocarbon dating shows that Cedrela trees from Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela form one ring per year but Cedrela trees from Suriname form two rings per year.

ABSTRACT

Tropical tree rings have the potential to yield valuable ecological and climate information, on the condition that rings are annual and accurately dated. It is important to understand the factors controlling ring formation, since regional variation in these factors could cause trees in different regions to form tree rings at different times. Here, we use 'bomb-peak' radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dating to test the periodicity of ring formation in Cedrela trees from four sites across tropical South America. We show that trees from Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela have reliably annual tree rings, while trees from Suriname regularly form two rings per year. This proves that while tree rings of a particular species may be demonstrably annual at one site, this does not imply that rings are formed annually in other locations. We explore possible drivers of variation in ring periodicity and find that Cedrela growth rhythms are most likely caused by precipitation seasonality, with a possible degree of genetic control. Therefore, tree-ring studies undertaken at new locations in the tropics require independent validation of the annual nature of tree rings, irrespective of how the studied species behaves in other locations.

Tree Age Distributions Reveal Large-Scale Disturbance-Recovery Cycles in Three Tropical Forests

Over the past few decades there has been a growing realization that a large share of apparently 'virgin' or 'old-growth' tropical forests carries a legacy of past natural or anthropogenic disturbances that have a substantial effect on present-day forest composition, structure and dynamics. Yet, direct evidence of such disturbances is scarce and comparisons of disturbance dynamics across regions even more so. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of disturbance histories from three tropical forest sites in Bolivia, Cameroon, and Thailand. We studied temporal patterns in tree regeneration of shade-intolerant tree species, because establishment of these trees is indicative for canopy disturbance. In three large areas (140-300 ha), stem disks and increment cores were collected for a total of 1154 trees (>5 cm diameter) from 12 tree species to estimate the age of every tree. Using these age estimates we produced population age distributions, which were analyzed for evidence of past disturbance. Our approach allowed us to reconstruct patterns of tree establishment over a period of around 250 years. In Bolivia, we found continuous regeneration rates of three species and a peaked age distribution of a long-lived pioneer species. In both Cameroon and Thailand we found irregular age distributions, indicating strongly reduced regeneration rates over a period of 10-60 years. Past fires, windthrow events or anthropogenic disturbances all provide plausible explanations for the reported variation in tree age across the three sites. Our results support the recent idea that the long-term dynamics of tropical forests are impacted by large-scale disturbance-recovery cycles, similar to those driving temperate forest dynamics.

No evidence for consistent long-term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree-ring analysis

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2 -fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights into species-specific growth changes - that ultimately determine community-level responses - are lacking. Here, we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size-class isolation) growth-trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change.

Tree growth variation in the tropical forest: understanding effects of temperature, rainfall and CO2

Tropical forest responses to climatic variability have important consequences for global carbon cycling, but are poorly understood. As empirical, correlative studies cannot disentangle the interactive effects of climatic variables on tree growth, we used a tree growth model (IBTREE) to unravel the climate effects on different physiological pathways and in turn on stem growth variation. We parameterized the model for canopy trees of Toona ciliata (Meliaceae) from a Thai monsoon forest and compared predicted and measured variation from a tree-ring study over a 30-year period. We used historical climatic variation of minimum and maximum day temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) in different combinations to estimate the contribution of each climate factor in explaining the inter-annual variation in stem growth. Running the model with only variation in maximum temperature and rainfall yielded stem growth patterns that explained almost 70% of the observed inter-annual variation in stem growth. Our results show that maximum temperature had a strong negative effect on the stem growth by increasing respiration, reducing stomatal conductance and thus mitigating a higher transpiration demand, and - to a lesser extent - by directly reducing photosynthesis. Although stem growth was rather weakly sensitive to rain, stem growth variation responded strongly and positively to rainfall variation owing to the strong inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall. Minimum temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration did not significantly contribute to explaining the inter-annual variation in stem growth. Our innovative approach - combining a simulation model with historical data on tree-ring growth and climate - allowed disentangling the effects of strongly correlated climate variables on growth through different physiological pathways. Similar studies on different species and in different forest types are needed to further improve our understanding of the sensitivity of tropical tree growth to climatic variability and change.

Sapwood allocation in tropical trees: a test of hypotheses

Carbon allocation to sapwood in tropical canopy trees is a key process determining forest carbon sequestration, and is at the heart of tree growth and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM). Several allocation hypotheses exist including those applying assumptions on fixed allocation, pipe model, and hierarchical allocation between plant organs. We use a tree growth model (IBTREE) to evaluate these hypotheses by comparing simulated sapwood growth with 30 year tree ring records of the tropical long-lived tree Toona ciliata M. Roem. in Thailand. Simulated annual variation in wood production varied among hypotheses. Observed and simulated growth patterns matched most closely (r2=0.70) when hierarchical allocation was implemented, with low priority for sapwood. This allocation method showed realistic results with respect to reserve dynamics, partitioning and productivity and was the only one able to capture the large annual variation in tree ring width. Consequently, this method might also explain the large temporal variation in diameter growth and the occurrence of missing rings often encountered in other tropical tree species. Overall, our results show that sapwood growth is highly sensitive to allocation principles, and that allocation assumptions may greatly influence estimated carbon sequestration of tropical forests under climatic change.

Climatic Stress during Stand Development Alters the Sign and Magnitude of Age-Related Growth Responses in a Subtropical Mountain Pine

The modification of typical age-related growth by environmental changes is poorly understood, In part because there is a lack of consensus at individual tree level regarding age-dependent growth responses to climate warming as stands develop. To increase our current understanding about how multiple drivers of environmental change can modify growth responses as trees age we used tree ring data of a mountain subtropical pine species along an altitudinal gradient covering more than 2,200 m of altitude. We applied mixed-linear models to determine how absolute and relative age-dependent growth varies depending on stand development; and to quantify the relative importance of tree age and climate on individual tree growth responses. Tree age was the most important factor for tree growth in models parameterised using data from all forest developmental stages. Contrastingly, the relationship found between tree age and growth became non-significant in models parameterised using data corresponding to mature stages. These results suggest that although absolute tree growth can continuously increase along tree size when trees reach maturity age had no effect on growth. Tree growth was strongly reduced under increased annual temperature, leading to more constant age-related growth responses. Furthermore, young trees were the most sensitive to reductions in relative growth rates, but absolute growth was strongly reduced under increased temperature in old trees. Our results help to reconcile previous contrasting findings of age-related growth responses at the individual tree level, suggesting that the sign and magnitude of age-related growth responses vary with stand development. The different responses found to climate for absolute and relative growth rates suggest that young trees are particularly vulnerable under warming climate, but reduced absolute growth in old trees could alter the species' potential as a carbon sink in the future.

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend SCI and RCS, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long-term growth trends.

(15)N in tree rings as a bio-indicator of changing nitrogen cycling in tropical forests: an evaluation at three sites using two sampling methods

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition is currently causing a more than twofold increase of reactive nitrogen input over large areas in the tropics. Elevated (15)N abundance (δ(15)N) in the growth rings of some tropical trees has been hypothesized to reflect an increased leaching of (15)N-depleted nitrate from the soil, following anthropogenic nitrogen deposition over the last decades. To find further evidence for altered nitrogen cycling in tropical forests, we measured long-term δ(15)N values in trees from Bolivia, Cameroon, and Thailand. We used two different sampling methods. In the first, wood samples were taken in a conventional way: from the pith to the bark across the stem of 28 large trees (the "radial" method). In the second, δ(15)N values were compared across a fixed diameter (the "fixed-diameter" method). We sampled 400 trees that differed widely in size, but measured δ(15)N in the stem around the same diameter (20 cm dbh) in all trees. As a result, the growth rings formed around this diameter differed in age and allowed a comparison of δ(15)N values over time with an explicit control for potential size-effects on δ(15)N values. We found a significant increase of tree-ring δ(15)N across the stem radius of large trees from Bolivia and Cameroon, but no change in tree-ring δ(15)N values over time was found in any of the study sites when controlling for tree size. This suggests that radial trends of δ(15)N values within trees reflect tree ontogeny (size development). However, for the trees from Cameroon and Thailand, a low statistical power in the fixed-diameter method prevents to conclude this with high certainty. For the trees from Bolivia, statistical power in the fixed-diameter method was high, showing that the temporal trend in tree-ring δ(15)N values in the radial method is primarily caused by tree ontogeny and unlikely by a change in nitrogen cycling. We therefore stress to account for tree size before tree-ring δ(15)N values can be properly interpreted.

Perturbations in the carbon budget of the tropics

The carbon budget of the tropics has been perturbed as a result of human influences. Here, we attempt to construct a 'bottom-up' analysis of the biological components of the budget as they are affected by human activities. There are major uncertainties in the extent and carbon content of different vegetation types, the rates of land-use change and forest degradation, but recent developments in satellite remote sensing have gone far towards reducing these uncertainties. Stocks of carbon as biomass in tropical forests and woodlands add up to 271 ± 16 Pg with an even greater quantity of carbon as soil organic matter. Carbon loss from deforestation, degradation, harvesting and peat fires is estimated as 2.01 ± 1.1 Pg annum(-1); while carbon gain from forest and woodland growth is 1.85 ± 0.09 Pg annum(-1). We conclude that tropical lands are on average a small carbon source to the atmosphere, a result that is consistent with the 'top-down' result from measurements in the atmosphere. If they were to be conserved, they would be a substantial carbon sink. Release of carbon as carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning in the tropics is 0.74 Pg annum(-1) or 0.57 MgC person(-1) annum(-1) , much lower than the corresponding figures from developed regions of the world.

Rainfall and temperature affect tree species distribution in Ghana

We evaluated the relative importance of annual rainfall, temperature and their seasonality to tree species distribution in Ghana. We used species presence/absence data from 2505 1-ha plots systematically distributed over Ghana's forests. Logistic regression was used to determine species responses to four climatic variables generated from the Worldclim database. The distribution of 95% of 20 species was significantly associated with annual rainfall, 60% with rainfall seasonality, 45% with isothermality and 40% with temperature seasonality. Annual rainfall explained on average most of the variation (17%, range = 0.5–52%) in species distribution, followed by rainfall seasonality 5% (range = 0.5–27%), isothermality 4% (range = 0.8–24%) and temperature seasonality 1% (range = 0.4–4.5%). Our results suggest that, out of the climatic variables investigated, rainfall is the main factor determining tree species distribution in Ghana; temperature also influences the distribution of a number of species, although it explains much less of the variation. The reduction in annual rainfall that prevailing climate-change scenarios predict for the region will result in a shift in the distribution of most species, whereas the predicted increase in temperature variation is likely to have little effect.