Climate change and levels of violence in socially disadvantaged neighborhood groups

Do Gender-Based Violence Interventions Consider the Impacts of Climate Change? A Systematic Review

Climate change and extreme weather events have been shown to increase incidences of gender-based violence (GBV). Numerous organizations have devoted significant time, resources, and effort to the design and implementation of interventions aimed at reducing GBV in Africa. Some interventions effectively reduce violence, but GBV persists and remains pervasive. The United Nations has called for GBV interventions that consider the impact of climate change on violence. This review aims to determine whether public health interventions intended to reduce GBV in Africa take into account the effects of climate change on the region and the population. PubMed, PsychArticles, and CINAHL databases were searched systematically in February 2023 for interventions conducted in Africa published between 2010 and 2023. There were a total of 86 articles in the final review that described 40 distinct interventions. The intervention designs included empowerment and participatory approaches (microfinance, microfinance plus, community education, and community engagement), changing social and cultural norms (community education, community engagement, and media), and school-based programs. None of the 40 interventions mentioned climate, weather, or climate change as a component of the intervention. There are several opportunities to improve existing, successful GBV interventions in order to increase their efficacy. GBV interventions could incorporate economic independence programs that do not rely on agriculture and include climate change education. These findings could facilitate the integration of two previously distinct research disciplines-climate change and GBV prevention-to inform future research and develop more effective and cost-efficient interventions.

Short-term high temperature may increase the incidence risk of collective conflicts: A case-crossover study in the Greater Middle East

BACKGROUND

Violent conflict is a formidable global challenge, with long-lasting impacts on individual health and society security. There has been compelling evidence that heat can increase aggression intention on the individual level. However, little is known about the short-term relationship between ambient temperature and collective violent conflicts, especially in less developed regions.

METHOD

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) among 247,773 violent conflicts from 29 countries or regions in the Greater Middle East, between 1997 and 2021. Potential modification effects of economic status and climate conditions were explored by stratified analyses. Negative control and sensitivity analyses were also performed to test the robustness of our model.

RESULTS

We observed significant associations between higher temperature and the onset of five categories of violent conflicts. The effects generally occurred within the first several days after exposure. The incidence risks of battles, violence against civilians, explosions/remote violence, protests and riots were 1.60 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.31-1.95], 1.82 (95 % CI: 1.37-2.42), 1.24 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.41), 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.09-1.24) and 1.54 (95 % CI: 1.22-1.95) when comparing extreme high temperatures to minimum-risk temperatures. The associations were generally more prominent in areas with lower economic levels and associations in regions of the continental climate are also stronger.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding reveals novel and concrete evidence that short-term high temperature could increase the risk of multiple forms of violent conflict in the Greater Middle East and provides new insights into the potential short-term mechanisms under the heat-collective violence association.

A nationwide time-series analysis for short-term effects of ambient temperature on violent crime in South Korea

Psychological theories on heat-aggression relationship have existed for decades and recent models suggest climate change will increase violence through varying pathways. Although observational studies have examined the impact of temperature on violent crime, the evidence for associations is primarily limited to coarse temporal resolution of weather and crime (e.g., yearly/monthly) and results from a few Western communities, warranting studies based on higher temporal resolution data of modern systemic crime statistics for various regions. This observational study examined short-term temperature impacts on violent crime using national crime data for the warm months (Jun.-Sep.) across South Korea (2016-2020). Distributed lag non-linear models assessed relative risks (RRs) of daily violent crime counts at the 70th, 90th, and 99th summer temperature percentiles compared to the reference temperature (10th percentile), with adjustments for long-term trends, seasonality, weather, and air pollution. Results indicate potentially non-linear relationships between daily summer temperature (lag0-lag10) and violent crime counts. Violent crimes consistently increased from the lowest temperature and showed the highest risk at the 70th temperature (~ 28.0 °C). The RR at the 70th and 90th percentiles of daily mean temperature (lag0-lag10), compared to the reference, was 1.11 (95% CI 1.09, 1.15) and 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.07), indicating significant associations. Stratified analysis showed significant increases in assault and domestic violence for increases in temperature. The lagged effects, the influences of heat on subsequent crime incidence, did not persist 21 days after the exposure, possibly due to the displacement phenomenon. We found curvilinear exposure-response relationships, which provide empirical evidence to support the psychological theories for heat and violence. Lower public safety through increased violent crime may be an additional public health harm of climate change.

Violent assault geographies in northeastern Australia

As climate change produces more extreme weather, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of these changes on social behaviour. The relationship between weather and crime has been studied across numerous contexts. However, few studies examine the correlation between weather and violence in southern, non-temperate climates. In addition, the literature lacks longitudinal research that controls for international changes in crime trends. In this study, we examine over 12 years of assault-related incidents in the state of Queensland, Australia. Controlling for deviations in trend for temperature and rainfall, we explore the relationship between violent crime and weather across Köppen climate classifications. Findings provide important insight into the impact of weather on violence across temperate, tropical, and arid climate regions.

High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago

Urban crime (UC) seriously affects the security and stability of the communities and society. However, the effects of external temperatures on the risk of UC are still confusing. We quantitatively estimated the effects of high and low temperatures on UC in Chicago. After controlling for the confounding factors, we found that high temperature has a positive promoting effect on UC, for non-domestic crime, the effect occurs at lag day 0 with a maximum risk of 1.40 (95%CI, 1.34-1.46) compared to a risk of 1 at temperature of -12.3 °C, and decreased as the lag day increased. The effect of low temperature is not significant for UC. Heat waves above the 99th percentile with a duration of 4.5-5.5 days exert a significant positive impact on non-domestic crime of UC. Our findings confirm the adverse promotion effect of high temperature on UC risk, and effective individual behavior guidance and administrative intervention are of great significance for reducing the risk of UC under specific high temperature environment.

Extreme climate and crime: Empirical evidence based on 129 prefecture-level cities in China

Climate change is having profound effects on natural and socio-economic systems, especially via extreme climate events. Using panel data from 129 prefectural-level cities in China from 2013 to 2019, this paper explores the effects of extreme climate on crime rates based on a climate index and manual collection of crime data. The results showed that extreme climate has a significant positive effect on crime rates, increasing by 0.035% for every 1% increase in the extreme climate index. This occurs through two mechanistic pathways: reduced agricultural output and lower employment income. The heterogeneity analysis shows that extreme climate has a greater impact on crime rates in eastern areas which are economically developed and have high levels of immigration. This study provides new perspectives on the impact of extreme climate on the economy and society, in which governments can actively participate in climate governance through environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and technological innovation to reduce crime rates by reducing the occurrence of extreme climate.

A tested method for assessing and predicting weather-crime associations

Few studies have focused on haze as a weather element and its correlation with crime. In this study, we examined haze as a weather variable to investigate its effects on criminal activity. We used both monthly crime data and weather records to build a regression model that contains a sequential statistical approach to reach the correlation coefficients between the variables. Also, we developed a prediction model to predict crime cases considering three weather factors: temperature, humidity, and haze. We applied this model in two different climate provinces in Saudi Arabia, namely, Riyadh and Makkah. Riyadh is a desert area and observes haze approximately 17 days per month on average, while Makkah is a coastal area observing haze an average of 4 days per month. We found a measurable relationship between each of these three variables and criminal activity. We found that a one-degree increase in temperature was associated with an increase in assault of 0.739, when humidity and haze were held constant. For other independent variables measured against the same crime in Riyadh, a one-degree increase in humidity was associated with a 0.164 increase in assault. An increase in the number of times that a haze phenomenon is observed was associated with an increase of 0.359 in assault cases. Haze had the most effect on theft, drug, and assault crimes in Riyadh compared to the other elements. Temperature and humidity have a significant relationship with crime in Makkah, while haze had no significant influence in that region.

Climate change and mental health research methods, gaps, and priorities: a scoping review

Research on climate change and mental health is a new but rapidly growing field. To summarise key advances and gaps in the current state of climate change and mental health studies, we conducted a scoping review that comprehensively examined research methodologies using large-scale datasets. We identified 56 eligible articles published in Embase, PubMed, PsycInfo, and Web of Science between Jan 1, 2000, and Aug 9, 2020. The primary data collection method used was surveys, which focused on self-reported mental health effects due to acute and subacute climate events. Other approaches used administrative health records to study the effect of environmental temperature on hospital admissions for mental health conditions, and national vital statistics to assess the relationship between environmental temperature and suicide rates with regression analyses. Our work highlights the need to link population-based mental health outcome databases to weather data for causal inference. Collaborations between mental health providers and data scientists can guide the formation of clinically relevant research questions on climate change.

The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Hypothesis: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities, 2002 to 2015

Drawing on prior studies, green criminologists have hypothesized that climate change will both raise the mean temperature and the level of crime. We call this the "climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis" ("CC-T-C"). This hypothesis is an extension of research performed on temperature and crime at the individual level. Other research explores this relationship by testing for the relationship between seasonality and crime within a given period of time (i.e., within years). Climate change, however, produces small changes in temperature over long periods of time, and in this view, the effect of climate change on crime should be assessed across and not within years. In addition, prior CC-T-C studies sometimes employ large geographic aggregations (e.g., the entire whole United States), which masks the CC-T-C association that appears at lower levels of aggregation. Moreover, globally, crime has declined across nations since the early 1990s, during a period of rising mean global temperatures, suggesting that the CC-T-C hypothesis does not fit the general trends in temperature and crime over time. Addressing these issues, the present study assesses the CC-T-C relationship for a sample of 15 large (N = 15) US cities over a 14-year period. Given the CC-T-C hypothesis parameters, we assessed this relationship using correlations between individual crime and temperature trends for each city. Crime trends were measured by both the number and rate of eight Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crimes, so that for each city, there are 16 crime-temperature correlations. Using a liberal p value (p = .10), the temperature-crime correlations were rejected as insignificant in 220 of the 234 tests (94%). We discuss the Implications of this finding and suggest that rather than focusing on the temperature-crime relationship, green criminologists interested in the deleterious effects of climate change draw attention to its larger social, economic, environmental and ecological justice implications.

The Interplay of Environmental Exposures and Mental Health: Setting an Agenda

BACKGROUND

To date, health-effects research on environmental stressors has rarely focused on behavioral and mental health outcomes. That lack of research is beginning to change. Science and policy experts in the environmental and behavioral health sciences are coming together to explore converging evidence on the relationship-harmful or beneficial-between environmental factors and mental health.

OBJECTIVES

To organize evidence and catalyze new findings, the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) hosted a workshop 2-3 February 2021 on the interplay of environmental exposures and mental health outcomes.

METHODS

This commentary provides a nonsystematic, expert-guided conceptual review and interdisciplinary perspective on the convergence of environmental and mental health, drawing from hypotheses, findings, and research gaps presented and discussed at the workshop. Featured is an overview of what is known about the intersection of the environment and mental health, focusing on the effects of neurotoxic pollutants, threats related to climate change, and the importance of health promoting environments, such as urban green spaces.

DISCUSSION

We describe what can be gained by bridging environmental and psychological research disciplines and present a synthesis of what is needed to advance interdisciplinary investigations. We also consider the implications of the current evidence for a) foundational knowledge of the etiology of mental health and illness, b) toxicant policy and regulation, c) definitions of climate adaptation and community resilience, d) interventions targeting marginalized communities, and e) the future of research training and funding. We include a call to action for environmental and mental health researchers, focusing on the environmental contributions to mental health to unlock primary prevention strategies at the population level and open equitable paths for preventing mental disorders and achieving optimal mental health for all. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9889.

Comparing forms of neighborhood instability as predictors of violence in Richmond, VA

Violence events tend to cluster together geospatially. Various features of communities and their residents have been highlighted as explanations for such clustering in the literature. One reliable correlate of violence is neighborhood instability. Research on neighborhood instability indicates that such instability can be measured as property tax delinquency, yet no known work has contrasted external and internal sources of instability in predicting neighborhood violence. To this end we collected data on violence events, company and personal property tax delinquency, population density, race, income, food stamps, and alcohol outlets for each of Richmond, Virginia's 148 neighborhoods. We constructed and compared ordinary least-squares (OLS) to geographically weighted regression (GWR) models before constructing a final algorithm-selected GWR model. Our results indicated that the tax delinquency of company-owned properties (e.g., rental homes, apartments) was the only variable in our model (R2 = 0.62) that was associated with violence in all but four Richmond neighborhoods. We replicated this analysis using violence data from a later point in time which yielded largely identical results. These findings indicate that external sources of neighborhood instability may be more important to predicting violence than internal sources. Our results further provide support for social disorganization theory and point to opportunities to expand this framework.

Physical Distancing, Violence, and Crime in US Cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic

Violent crime increased and most property crime decreased in many United States (US) cities during the coronavirus pandemic. Using negative binomial regressions, we examined the association between physical distancing (a central coronavirus containment strategy) and crime within 16 large cities (in 12 US states and the District of Columbia) through July 2020. Physical distancing was measured with aggregated smartphone data and defined as the average change in the percentage of the population staying completely at home. Outcome data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive and city open data portals. In multivariable models, increases in the percentage of the population staying home were associated with decreases in reported incidents of aggravated assault, interpersonal firearm violence, theft, rape, and robbery, and increases in arson, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Results suggest that changes in the frequency of interpersonal interactions affected crime during the coronavirus pandemic. More research is needed on the specificity of these assocations and their underlying mechanisms.

Hot under the collar: A 14-year association between temperature and violent behavior across 436 U.S. counties

OBJECTIVES

Violent behavior is influenced by individual and societal characteristics, but the role of environmental factors is less understood. Our aims were to use national-level data to identify the association between criminal behavior and short-term temperature conditions, including the departure of daily temperatures from normal conditions.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-stage hierarchical time-series model across 436 U.S. counties and 14-years representing 100.4 million people to investigate the association between daily mean temperature and daily mean temperatures departing from normal conditions with violent and non-violent crime counts. First-stage comparisons were made within counties to control for population and geographic heterogeneities, while a second stage combined estimates. We evaluated differences in risk based on county sociodemographic characteristics and estimated non-linear exposure-response relationships.

RESULTS

We observed a total of 9.0 million violent crimes and 20.9 million non-violent property crimes between 2000 through 2013. We estimated that each 10 °C increase in daily temperature or daily departure from long-term normal temperatures were associated with 11.92% (95% PI: 11.57, 12.27) and 10.37% (95% PI: 10.05, 10.69) increase in the risk of violent crime, respectively. Similar, but lower in magnitude trends, were observed for property crime risks. We found that crime risk plateaus and decreases at high daily temperatures, but for temperatures departing from normal, the association with crime increased linearly. Seasonal variations showed that anomalously warm temperatures days during cool months had the greatest risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed an association between higher temperatures and high departure from normal temperatures with both violent and non-violent crime risk, regardless of community-type. However, our findings on seasonal and daily trends suggest that daily mean temperature may impact crime by affecting routine activities and behavior, as opposed to a temperature-aggression relationship. These results may advance public response and planning to prevent violent behavior.

Predictive Extrinsic Factors in Multiple Victim Shootings

Although researchers have found support for a relationship between temperature and violence and evidence of temporal patterns in violent crime, research on homicide shows less consistent results and no research on mass murder has been conducted. We address this by examining predictive factors in multi-victim shootings (those with four or more victims, including injured), a more general crime category than mass murder, but one with likely similar predictive factors. We used data from the Gun Violence Archive to understand the relationship between multi-victim shootings and temperature as well as other extrinsic factors. To avoid the confound between season and temperature, we employed temperature anomaly (the difference between actual and expected temperature) as a predictor of daily shooting rate. Using a generalized linear model for the daily count of multi-victim shootings in the U.S., we found that these events are significantly more frequent on weekends, some major holidays, hotter seasons, and when the temperature is higher than usual. Like other crimes, rates of multi-victim shooting vary systematically.

Climate change-induced human conflicts and economic costs in Pakistani Punjab

Understanding causes of interpersonal conflicts, related costs, and the effects on investment in agriculture are important concerns of social sciences. The present study was designed to explore these aspects in relation to climate change, since rising temperature and precipitation are considered crucial causal factors in fueling interpersonal conflicts. The study used cross-sectional data collected from rural farm households from a large district of Pakistani Punjab. Cost of conflicts was estimated using standard economic methods whereas factors affecting interpersonal conflicts were estimated through employing logit model. The study found that interpersonal conflicts cost US$135 per month for following the proceedings of the conflicts filed in the court. Households involved in conflicts spent significantly very few resources in purchasing farm inputs which in turn declined productivity of maize (28%) and sugarcane (19%). Warm temperature, precipitation, and windstorm were perceived by households as causal factors for interpersonal conflicts. Socioeconomic characteristics namely, farm size, livestock, family size, and high monthly income of household, were significantly associated with interpersonal conflicts. The study concludes important policy implications.

Drought and intimate partner violence towards women in 19 countries in sub-Saharan Africa during 2011-2018: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Drought has many known deleterious impacts on human health, but little is known about the relationship between drought and intimate partner violence (IPV). We aimed to evaluate this relationship and to assess effect heterogeneity between population subgroups among women in 19 sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data from 19 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2018 including 83,990 partnered women aged 15-49 years. Deviations in rainfall in the year before the survey date were measured relative to the 29 previous years using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data, with recent drought classified as ordinal categorical variable (severe: ≤10th percentile; mild/moderate: >10th percentile to ≤30th percentile; none: >30th percentile). We considered 4 IPV-related outcomes: reporting a controlling partner (a risk factor for IPV) and experiencing emotional violence, physical violence, or sexual violence in the 12 months prior to survey. Logistic regression was used to estimate marginal risk differences (RDs). We evaluated the presence of effect heterogeneity by age group and employment status. Of the 83,990 women included in the analytic sample, 10.7% (9,019) experienced severe drought and 23.4% (19,639) experienced mild/moderate drought in the year prior to the survey, with substantial heterogeneity across countries. The mean age of respondents was 30.8 years (standard deviation 8.2). The majority of women lived in rural areas (66.3%) and were married (73.3%), while less than half (42.6%) were literate. Women living in severe drought had higher risk of reporting a controlling partner (marginal RD in percentage points = 3.0, 95% CI 1.3, 4.6; p < 0.001), experiencing physical violence (marginal RD = 0.8, 95% CI 0.1, 1.5; p = 0.019), and experiencing sexual violence (marginal RD = 1.2, 95% CI 0.4, 2.0; p = 0.001) compared with women not experiencing drought. Women living in mild/moderate drought had higher risk of reporting physical (marginal RD = 0.7, 95% CI 0.2, 1.1; p = 0.003) and sexual violence (marginal RD = 0.7, 95% CI 0.3, 1.2; p = 0.001) compared with those not living in drought. We did not find evidence for an association between drought and emotional violence. In analyses stratified by country, we found 3 settings where drought was protective for at least 1 measure of IPV: Namibia, Tanzania, and Uganda. We found evidence for effect heterogeneity (additive interaction) for the association between drought and younger age and between drought and employment status, with stronger associations between drought and IPV among adolescent girls and unemployed women. This study is limited by its lack of measured hypothesized mediating variables linking drought and IPV, prohibiting a formal mediation analysis. Additional limitations include the potential for bias due to residual confounding and potential non-differential misclassification of the outcome measures leading to an attenuation of observed associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that drought was associated with measures of IPV towards women, with larger positive associations among adolescent girls and unemployed women. There was heterogeneity in these associations across countries. Weather shocks may exacerbate vulnerabilities among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Future work should further evaluate potential mechanisms driving these relationships.

Climate Change, Human Health, and Social Stability: Addressing Interlinkages

BACKGROUND

Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration.

DISCUSSION

Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4534.

Comparing apples to apples: an environmental criminology analysis of the effects of heat and rain on violent crimes in Boston

Weather characteristics have been suggested by many social scientists to influence criminality. A recent study suggested that climate change may cause a substantial increase in criminal activities during the twenty-first century. The additional number of crimes due to climate have been ethoroughly discussed the first draft of the paper. Allstimated by associational models, which are not optimal to quantify causal impacts of weather conditions on criminality. Using the Rubin Causal Model and crime data reported daily between 2012 and 2017, this study examines whether changes in heat index, a proxy for apparent temperature, and rainfall occurrence, influence the number of violent crimes in Boston. On average, more crimes are reported on temperate days compared to extremely cold days, and on dry days compared to rainy days. However, no significant differences in the number of crimes between extremely hot days versus less warm days could be observed. The results suggest that weather forecasts could be integrated into crime prevention programs in Boston. The weather-crime relationship should be taken into account when assessing the economic, sociological, or medical impact of climate change. Researchers and policy makers interested in the effects of environmental exposures or policy interventions on crime should consider data analyses conducted with causal inference approaches.

The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States

While the impact of climate on regional geopolitical stability and large-scale conflict has garnered increased visibility in recent years, the effects of climate variability on interpersonal violent crime have received only limited scientific attention. Though earlier studies have established a modest correlation between temperature and violent crime, the underlying seasonality in both variables was often not controlled for and spatial heterogeneity of the statistical relationships has largely been overlooked. Here a method of spatial aggregation is applied to the United States, enabling a systematic investigation into the observed relationships between large-scale climate variability and regionally aggregated crime rates. This novel approach allows for differentiation between the effects of two previously proposed mechanisms linking climate and violent crime, the Routine Activities Theory and Temperature-Aggression Hypothesis. Results indicate large and statistically significant positive correlations between the interannual variability of wintertime air temperature and both violent and property crime rates, with negligible correlations emerging from summertime data. Results strongly support the Routine Activities Theory linking climate and violent crime, with climate variability explaining well over a third of the variance of wintertime violent crime in several broad regions of the United States. Finally, results motivate the development of observationally constrained empirical models and their potential application to seasonal and potentially longer-term forecasts.

Integrative Review of the Intersection of Green Space and Neighborhood Violence

PURPOSE

To systematically analyze evidence about the impact of green space on the perception and actual safety of residents of urban neighborhoods.

DESIGN AND ORGANIZING CONSTRUCT

Systematic review of green space and violence based on Broome review criteria.

METHODS

One landmark study prompted the initial hand search and identification of search terms. Twenty-three quantitative, five qualitative, and two mixed-methods studies were found in the urban planning, public health, medical, and psychological literature that met the following criteria: analyzed green space and violence as factors in the perception of safety as an outcome measure, including action taken by being outside for recreation, exercise, or self-report in the survey.

FINDINGS

Findings were inconsistent regarding the direct relationship between perception of safety and green space when using recreation and exercise as a proxy for perception of safety. Findings regarding perception of safety in surveys were limited but indicated a positive correlation with green space. There is sufficient evidence to conclude that the perception of safety is supported by quality, accessibility, and aesthetic dimensions of neighborhood green space, and the perception of safety is often unrelated to actual crime rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The science for understanding mechanisms between green space and violence as part of environmental health has been insufficiently developed and requires further study. Environmental health, including green space, is central to health promotion, and understanding is key to preventing the epidemic of violence.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

This article provides a summary of research related to green space, violence in communities, perception of safety, and violent crime in those communities. It identifies gaps in our knowledge where future research is needed. Nurses have the opportunity to lead the development, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions and policies addressing the inequality of quality and quantity of green space in the built and natural environment and related co-benefits.

Impact of climate variability and change on crime rates in Tangshan, China

Studies examining the relation between climate and human conflict often focus on the role of temperature and have diverging views on the significance of other climatic variables. Using a 6-year (from 2009 to 2014) dataset of crime statistics collected in a medium size city of Tangshan in China, we find strong, positive correlations between temperature and both violent and property crimes. In addition, relative humidity is also positively correlated with Rape and Minimal Violent Robbery (MVR). The seasonal cycle is a significant factor that induces good correlations between crime rates and climatic variables, which can be reasonably explained by the Routine Activity theory. We also show that the combined impacts of temperature and relative humidity on crime rates can be reasonably captured by traditional heat stress indices. Using an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate change simulations, we estimate that at the end of the 21st century the rates of Rape (violent crime) and MVR (property crime) in Tangshan will increase by 9.5±5.3% and 2.6±2.1%, respectively, under the highest emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). The gross domestic product (GDP) is also shown to be significantly correlated with MVR rates and the regression results are strongly impacted by whether GDP is considered or not.

A Time Series Analysis of Associations between Daily Temperature and Crime Events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006-2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and hourly temperature and dew point data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. We calculated the mean daily heat index and daily deviations from each year's seasonal mean heat index value. We used generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, adjusted for day of the week, public holiday, and long-term trends and seasonality, to estimate relative rates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals. We found that the strongest associations were with violent crime and disorderly conduct. For example, relative to the median of the distribution of mean daily heat index values, the rate of violent crimes was 9% (95% CI 6-12%) higher when the mean daily heat index was at the 99th percentile of the distribution. There was a positive, linear relationship between deviations of the daily mean heat index from the seasonal mean and rates of violent crime and disorderly conduct, especially in cold months. Overall, these analyses suggest that disorderly conduct and violent crimes are highest when temperatures are comfortable, especially during cold months. This work provides important information regarding the temporal patterns of crime activity.

An Evaluation of Seasonal Variation of Nonaccidental Fractures in Children Less Than 1 Year of Age

The aim of this study was to identify seasonal variation in nonaccidental injury (NAI) in children <1 year of age. Fifty consecutive patients age ≤12 months with a fracture were identified between January 2010 and June 2012. Patients' records were reviewed for demographic, clinical, and radiographic data. Zip code was used to collect socioeconomic data. Out of 50 patients included in the study, fractures in 16 (32%) patients were reported for abuse. NAI was reported in 2/13 (15%) fracture cases presenting in the spring, 5/6 (83%) in summer, 6/15 (40%) in autumn, and 3/14 (21%) in winter. The ratio of NAI to accidental injury was highest in the summer. Presentation in summer was associated with NAI ( P < .001). In addition, NAI was associated with parental unemployment, single parents, and lower socioeconomic status ( P < .001). Seasonal variation occurred, and the most common season for NAI was the summer; also, NAI in children <1 year of age was associated with parental unemployment, single parent, and poverty.

Is weather related to the number of assaults seen at emergency departments?

BACKGROUND

It is often suggested that the weather can effect behaviour, increasing the likelihood of assaults and resulting in increased admissions to emergency departments (ED). Therefor a better understanding of the effect of climatic conditions could be useful to help EDs in capacity planning. Whilst other studies have looked at this, none have used data collected specifically to look at ED attendance for assaults or have taken account of potential behaviour modifiers.

METHODS

We use data from our ED violence surveillance system, the Cardiff Model (CM), married to daily meteorological data to construct negative-binomial regression models. The models are used to estimate changes in the assault rate with changes in temperature, adjusting for day of the week and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

We find that there is 1% increase in the assault rate for every degree increase in the maximum daily temperature (IRR=1.01, P-value=0.033). Additionally, different patterns in alcohol consumption at weekends also provide a significant contribution. However, when we generalise this model to represent temperature in terms of factors of standard deviation from the mean temperature, the IRR relationship changes, plateauing at unusually high temperatures (±1.5 SD above the mean).

CONCLUSIONS

The results presented here suggest that whilst temperature does increase the risk of assaults in Dorset, there may be a limit to its effect. This implies the 'curve-linear' relationship for temperature as suggested by others.

Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach

Climate and weather have been linked to criminal activity. The connection between climatological conditions and crime is of growing importance as we seek to understand the societal implications of climate change. This study describes the mechanisms theorized to link annual variations in climate to crime in California and examines the effect of drought on statewide crime rates from 2011–2015. California has suffered severe drought since 2011, resulting in intensely dry winters and several of the hottest days on record. It is likely that the drought increased economic stress and shifted routine activities of the population, potentially increasing the likelihood of crime. We used a synthetic control method to estimate the impact of California’s drought on both property and violent crimes. We found a significant increase in property crimes during the drought, but no effect on violent crimes. This result was robust to several sensitivity analyses, including a negative control.

An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change

Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.