Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Cellular morphological trait dataset for extant coccolithophores from the Atlantic Ocean

Calcification and biomass production by planktonic marine organisms influences the global carbon cycle and fuels marine ecosystems. The major calcifying plankton group coccolithophores are highly diverse, comprising ca. 250-300 extant species. However, coccolithophore size (a key functional trait) and degree of calcification are poorly quantified, as most of our understanding of this group comes from a small number of species. We generated a novel reference dataset of coccolithophore morphological traits, including cell-specific data for coccosphere and cell size, coccolith size, number of coccoliths per cell, and cellular calcite content. This dataset includes observations from 1074 individual cells and represents 61 species from 25 genera spanning equatorial to temperate coccolithophore populations that were sampled during the Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) 14 cruise in 2004. This unique dataset can be used to explore relationships between morphological traits (cell size and cell calcite) and environmental conditions, investigate species-specific and community contributions to pelagic carbonate production, export and plankton biomass, and inform and validate coccolithophore representation in marine ecosystem and biogeochemical models.

Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary resources.

Efficient spin-up of Earth System Models using sequence acceleration

Marine and terrestrial biogeochemical models are key components of the Earth System Models (ESMs) used to project future environmental changes. However, their slow adjustment time also hinders effective use of ESMs because of the enormous computational resources required to integrate them to a pre-industrial equilibrium. Here, a solution to this "spin-up" problem based on "sequence acceleration", is shown to accelerate equilibration of state-of-the-art marine biogeochemical models by over an order of magnitude. The technique can be applied in a "black box" fashion to existing models. Even under the challenging spin-up protocols used for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) simulations, this algorithm is 5 times faster. Preliminary results suggest that terrestrial models can be similarly accelerated, enabling a quantification of major parametric uncertainties in ESMs, improved estimates of metrics such as climate sensitivity, and higher model resolution than currently feasible.

Modeling the Vertical Flux of Organic Carbon in the Global Ocean

The oceans play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle, providing a sink for atmospheric carbon. Key to this role is the vertical transport of organic carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. This transport is a product of a diverse range of physical and biogeochemical processes that determine the formation and fate of this material, and in particular how much carbon is sequestered in the deep ocean. Models can be used to both diagnose biogeochemical processes and predict how the various processes will change in the future. Global biogeochemical models use simplified representations of food webs and processes but are converging on values for the export of organic carbon from the surface ocean. Other models concentrate on understanding specific processes and can be used to develop parameterizations for global models. Model development is continuing by adding representations and parameterizations of higher trophic levels and mesopelagic processes, and these are expected to improve model performance.

Satellite-Based Global Sea Surface Oxygen Mapping and Interpretation with Spatiotemporal Machine Learning

The assessment of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration at the sea surface is essential for comprehending the global ocean oxygen cycle and associated environmental and biochemical processes as it serves as the primary site for photosynthesis and sea-air exchange. However, limited comprehensive measurements and imprecise numerical simulations have impeded the study of global sea surface DO and its relationship with environmental challenges. This paper presents a novel spatiotemporal information embedding machine-learning framework that provides explanatory insights into the underlying driving mechanisms. By integrating extensive in situ data and high-resolution satellite data, the proposed framework successfully generated high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) estimates of DO concentration with exceptional accuracy (R2 = 0.95, RMSE = 11.95 μmol/kg, and test number = 2805) for near-global sea surface areas from 2010 to 2018, uncertainty estimated to be ±13.02 μmol/kg. The resulting sea surface DO data set exhibits precise spatial distribution and reveals compelling correlations with prominent marine phenomena and environmental stressors. Leveraging its interpretability, our model further revealed the key influence of marine factors on surface DO and their implications for environmental issues. The presented machine-learning framework offers an improved DO data set with higher resolution, facilitating the exploration of oceanic DO variability, deoxygenation phenomena, and their potential consequences for environments.

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at -2.8% and -3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (-17.5% vs. -29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.

Enhancing daily streamflow simulation using the coupled SWAT-BiLSTM approach for climate change impact assessment in Hai-River Basin

Against the backdrop of accelerated global climate change and urbanization, the frequency and severity of flood disasters have been increasing. In recent years, influenced by climate change, the Hai-River Basin (HRB) has experienced multiple large-scale flood disasters. During the widespread extraordinary flood event from July 28th to August 1st, 2023, eight rivers witnessed their largest floods on record. These events caused significant damage and impact on economic and social development. The development of hydrological models with better performance can help researchers understand the impacts of climate change, provide risk information on different disaster events within watersheds, support decision-makers in formulating adaptive measures, urban planning, and improve flood defense mechanisms to address the ever-changing climate environment. This study examines the potential for enhancing streamflow simulation accuracy in the HRB located in Northeast China by combining the physically-based hydrological model with the data-driven model. Three hybrid models, SWAT-D-BiLSTM, SWAT-C-BiLSTM and SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1, were constructed in this study, in which SWAT was used as a transfer function to simulate the base flow and quick flow generation process based on weather data and spatial features, and BiLSTM was used to directly predict the streamflow according to the base flow and quick flow. In the SWAT-C-BiLSTM model, SWAT parameters with P values less than 0.4 in each hydrological station-controlled watershed were calibrated, while the SWAT-D-BiLSTM model did not undergo calibration. Additionally, this study utilizes both 30 m resolution land use and land cover (LULC) map and the first 1 m resolution LULC map SinoLC-1 as input data for the models to explore the impact on streamflow simulation performance. Among five models, the NSE of SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1 reached 0.93 and the R2 reached 0.95 during the calibration period, and both of them stayed at 0.92 even in the validation period, while the NSE and R2 of the other four models were all below 0.90 in the validation period. The potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the HRB was evaluated by using predicted data from five global climate models from CMIP6 as input for the best-performing SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1. The results indicate that climate change exacerbates the uneven distribution of streamflow in the HRB, particularly during the concentrated heavy rainfall months of July and August. It is projected that the monthly streamflow in these two months will increase by 34% and 49% respectively in the middle of this century. Furthermore, it is expected that the annual streamflow will increase by 5.6% to 9.1% during the mid-century and by 6.7% to 9.3% by the end of the century. Both average streamflow and peak streamflow are likely to significantly increase, raising concerns about more frequent urban flooding in the capital economic region within the HRB.

Authigenic mineral phases as a driver of the upper-ocean iron cycle

Iron is important in regulating the ocean carbon cycle1. Although several dissolved and particulate species participate in oceanic iron cycling, current understanding emphasizes the importance of complexation by organic ligands in stabilizing oceanic dissolved iron concentrations2-6. However, it is difficult to reconcile this view of ligands as a primary control on dissolved iron cycling with the observed size partitioning of dissolved iron species, inefficient dissolved iron regeneration at depth or the potential importance of authigenic iron phases in particulate iron observational datasets7-12. Here we present a new dissolved iron, ligand and particulate iron seasonal dataset from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) region. We find that upper-ocean dissolved iron dynamics were decoupled from those of ligands, which necessitates a process by which dissolved iron escapes ligand stabilization to generate a reservoir of authigenic iron particles that settle to depth. When this 'colloidal shunt' mechanism was implemented in a global-scale biogeochemical model, it reproduced both seasonal iron-cycle dynamics observations and independent global datasets when previous models failed13-15. Overall, we argue that the turnover of authigenic particulate iron phases must be considered alongside biological activity and ligands in controlling ocean-dissolved iron distributions and the coupling between dissolved and particulate iron pools.

What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean's twilight zone

Paleontological reconstructions of plankton community structure during warm periods of the Cenozoic (last 66 million years) reveal that deep-dwelling 'twilight zone' (200-1000 m) plankton were less abundant and diverse, and lived much closer to the surface, than in colder, more recent climates. We suggest that this is a consequence of temperature's role in controlling the rate that sinking organic matter is broken down and metabolized by bacteria, a process that occurs faster at warmer temperatures. In a warmer ocean, a smaller fraction of organic matter reaches the ocean interior, affecting food supply and dissolved oxygen availability at depth. Using an Earth system model that has been evaluated against paleo observations, we illustrate how anthropogenic warming may impact future carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology. Our findings suggest that significant changes are already underway, and without strong emissions mitigation, widespread ecological disruption in the twilight zone is likely by 2100, with effects spanning millennia thereafter.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.

A regional-scale approach for modeling primary production and biogenic silica export in the Southern Ocean

Persistent uncertainties in the representations of net primary production (NPP) and silicate in the Southern Ocean have been noted in recent assessments ofthe ocean biogeochemical components of Earth system models (ESMs). Consequently, more mechanistic studies at the regional scale are required. To reduce these uncertainties, we applied a one-dimensional (1D) marine ecosystem model to different bioregions in the Southern Ocean: the Polar Frontal Zone in the Pacific sector, the seasonal sea ice zone in the northwestern Ross Sea, and the inner shelf of Terra Nova Bay. To make the existing ecosystem model applicable to the Southern Ocean, we modified the phytoplankton physiology (stoichiometry depending on species) and the silicate cycle (dissolution rate of biogenic silica (BSi) depending on latitude) in the model. We quantified and compared seasonal variations in several limitation factors of NPP, namely, iron, irradiance, silicate and temperature, in the three regions. The simulation results showed that dissolved iron plays the most significant role in determining the magnitude of NPP and the phytoplankton community structure during summer. Additionally, the modified model successfully reproduced the vertical flux of BSi and particulate organic carbon (POC). The POC export efficiency was high in the inner shelf zone, which had high levels of iron concentration, NPP, and Phaeocystis biomass. In contrast, BSi export occurred most efficiently in the Polar Frontal Zone, where diatoms are dominant, the BSi dissolution rate is low, and NPP is extremely low. Our results from the integrated mechanistic framework at the regional scale demonstrate which specific processes should be urgently included in ESMs for better representation of the biogeochemical dynamics in the Southern Ocean.

Nutrient uptake plasticity in phytoplankton sustains future ocean net primary production

Annually, marine phytoplankton convert approximately 50 billion tons of dissolved inorganic carbon to particulate and dissolved organic carbon, a portion of which is exported to depth via the biological carbon pump. Despite its important roles in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide via carbon sequestration and in sustaining marine ecosystems, model-projected future changes in marine net primary production are highly uncertain even in the sign of the change. Here, using an Earth system model, we show that frugal utilization of phosphorus by phytoplankton under phosphate-stressed conditions can overcompensate the previously projected 21st century declines due to ocean warming and enhanced stratification. Our results, which are supported by observations from the Hawaii Ocean Time-series program, suggest that nutrient uptake plasticity in the subtropical ocean plays a key role in sustaining phytoplankton productivity and carbon export production in a warmer world.

Global Ocean Particulate Organic Phosphorus, Carbon, Oxygen for Respiration, and Nitrogen (GO-POPCORN)

Concentrations and elemental stoichiometry of suspended particulate organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen demand for respiration (C:N:P:−O2) play a vital role in characterizing and quantifying marine elemental cycles. Here, we present Version 2 of the Global Ocean Particulate Organic Phosphorus, Carbon, Oxygen for Respiration, and Nitrogen (GO-POPCORN) dataset. Version 1 is a previously published dataset of particulate organic matter from 70 different studies between 1971 and 2010, while Version 2 is comprised of data collected from recent cruises between 2011 and 2020. The combined GO-POPCORN dataset contains 2673 paired surface POC/N/P measurements from 70°S to 73°N across all major ocean basins at high spatial resolution. Version 2 also includes 965 measurements of oxygen demand for organic carbon respiration. This new dataset can help validate and calibrate the next generation of global ocean biogeochemical models with flexible elemental stoichiometry. We expect that incorporating variable C:N:P:-O2 into models will help improve our estimates of key ocean biogeochemical fluxes such as carbon export, nitrogen fixation, and organic matter remineralization.

Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change

Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.

Arctic Ocean annual high in [Formula: see text] could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO₂ partial pressure (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${p}_{{{\rm{CO}}}_{2}}$$\end{document}pCO2), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge^1–5. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${p}_{{{\rm{CO}}}_{2}}$$\end{document}pCO2. In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low⁶ because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO₂ emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${p}_{{{\rm{CO}}}_{2}}$$\end{document}pCO2, although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming⁷ from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice⁸. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${p}_{{{\rm{CO}}}_{2}}$$\end{document}pCO2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

Simulations suggest that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the Arctic Ocean will shift from a winter to a summer maximum owing to enhanced summer sea surface warming from earlier sea-ice retreat.

Competing and accelerating effects of anthropogenic nutrient inputs on climate-driven changes in ocean carbon and oxygen cycles

Nutrient inputs from the atmosphere and rivers to the ocean are increased substantially by human activities. However, the effects of increased nutrient inputs are not included in the widely used CMIP5 Earth system models, which introduce bias into model simulations of ocean biogeochemistry. Here, using historical simulations by an Earth system model with perturbed atmospheric and riverine nutrient inputs, we show that the contribution of anthropogenic nutrient inputs to past global changes in ocean biogeochemistry is of similar magnitude to the effect of climate change. Anthropogenic nutrient inputs increase oceanic productivity and carbon uptake, offsetting climate-induced decrease and accelerating climate-driven deoxygenation in the upper ocean. Moreover, accounting for anthropogenic nutrient inputs improves the known carbon budget imbalance and model underestimation of the observed decrease in the global oxygen inventory. Considering the effects of both nutrient inputs and climate change is crucial in assessing anthropogenic impacts on ocean biogeochemistry.

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

Enhanced silica export in a future ocean triggers global diatom decline

Diatoms account for up to 40% of marine primary production^1,2 and require silicic acid to grow and build their opal shell³. On the physiological and ecological level, diatoms are thought to be resistant to, or even benefit from, ocean acidification^4–6. Yet, global-scale responses and implications for biogeochemical cycles in the future ocean remain largely unknown. Here we conducted five in situ mesocosm experiments with natural plankton communities in different biomes and find that ocean acidification increases the elemental ratio of silicon (Si) to nitrogen (N) of sinking biogenic matter by 17 ± 6 per cent under \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${{p}}_{{{\rm{CO}}}_{2}}$$\end{document}pCO2 conditions projected for the year 2100. This shift in Si:N seems to be caused by slower chemical dissolution of silica at decreasing seawater pH. We test this finding with global sediment trap data, which confirm a widespread influence of pH on Si:N in the oceanic water column. Earth system model simulations show that a future pH-driven decrease in silica dissolution of sinking material reduces the availability of silicic acid in the surface ocean, triggering a global decline of diatoms by 13–26 per cent due to ocean acidification by the year 2200. This outcome contrasts sharply with the conclusions of previous experimental studies, thereby illustrating how our current understanding of biological impacts of ocean change can be considerably altered at the global scale through unexpected feedback mechanisms in the Earth system.

Mesocosm experiments in different biomes show that future ocean acidification will slow down the dissolution of biogenic silica, decreasing silicic acid availability in the surface ocean and triggering a global decline of diatoms as revealed by Earth system model simulations.

Trophic niche overlap between round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) and sympatric pelagic fish species in the Western Mediterranean

The northward expansion of round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) in the Mediterranean Sea, together with declines and fluctuations in biomass and landings of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) observed in recent decades, may suggest potential inter-specific competition in the pelagic domain. The coexistence of sympatric zooplanktivorous fish species might therefore be exposed in part to trophic niche overlap and competition for food. Combining visual diet characterization under the microscope with DNA metabarcoding from stomach contents of fish collected in spring results show that predation on relatively large krill is equally important for sardinella than for the other two niche overlapping species. Furthermore, an important overlap is found in their isotopic niche, especially with anchovy, using nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) stable isotopes in muscle tissue. In fact, the three fish species are able to feed effectively in the whole prey size spectrum available during the sampled season, from the smallest diatoms and copepods to the larger prey (i.e., decapods and euphausiids), including fish larvae. Moreover, effective predation upon other large prey like siphonophores, which is observed only when multi-proxy analyses in stomach contents are applied, might also be relevant in the diet of sardinella. The overlapping diet composition in spring, together with the effective use of food resource by sardinella, can be of special interest in potential future scenarios with warmer water temperature leading to lower zooplankton and/or higher jellyfish availability, where sardinella may take advantage over other species due to its feeding plasticity.

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity

The ocean attenuates global warming by taking up about one quarter of global anthropogenic carbon emissions. Around 40% of this carbon sink is located in the Southern Ocean. However, Earth system models struggle to reproduce the Southern Ocean circulation and carbon fluxes. We identify a tight relationship across two multimodel ensembles between present-day sea surface salinity in the subtropical-polar frontal zone and the anthropogenic carbon sink in the Southern Ocean. Observations and model results constrain the cumulative Southern Ocean sink over 1850-2100 to 158 ± 6 petagrams of carbon under the low-emissions scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 (SSP1-2.6) and to 279 ± 14 petagrams of carbon under the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. The constrained anthropogenic carbon sink is 14 to 18% larger and 46 to 54% less uncertain than estimated by the unconstrained estimates. The identified constraint demonstrates the importance of the freshwater cycle for the Southern Ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.