Joint analysis of psychiatric disorders increases accuracy of risk prediction for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder

A cross-tissue transcriptome-wide association study identifies novel susceptibility genes for atrial fibrillation

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia, has been linked to numerous loci identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, the causal genes and underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

Methods

We conducted a cross-tissue transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) using the unified test for molecular signatures (UTMOST), integrating genetic data from the FinnGen R11 cohort (287 805 individuals) with gene expression profiles from the genotype-tissue expression (GTEx) project. To enhance reliability, we applied functional summary-based imputation (FUSION), fine-mapping of causal gene sets (FOCUS), and multi-marker analysis of GenoMic annotation (MAGMA) for gene prioritization, followed by Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization analyses. GeneMANIA was used to explore gene functions.

Results

By integrating four TWAS approaches, this study identified five novel susceptibility genes significantly associated with AF risk. MR analysis further revealed that the gene expression levels of FKBP7, CEP68, and CAMK2D were positively associated with AF risk, while SPATS2L exhibited a significant protective effect. Colocalization analysis demonstrated that CEP68 and SPATS2L share causal variants with AF. Through comprehensive evaluation of multidimensional functional annotations and existing biological evidence, this study highlighted SPATS2L and CEP68 as potential functional candidate genes in AF pathogenesis.

Conclusions

This cross-tissue TWAS identified five novel AF susceptibility genes (CAMK2D, SPAST2L, CEP68, FKBP7, and SHRMOO3). Elevated expression of FKBP7, CEP68, and CAMK2D increases AF risk, while SPATS2L showed a protective effect, with colocalization analysis implicating CEP68 and SPATS2L as prioritized candidates. The integration of multi-omics approaches effectively unravels AF's genetic mechanisms.

Genetic analysis of psychosis Biotypes: shared Ancestry-adjusted polygenic risk and unique genomic associations

The Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) created psychosis Biotypes based on neurobiological measurements in a multi-ancestry sample. These Biotypes cut across DSM diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, and bipolar disorder with psychosis. Two recently developed post hoc ancestry adjustment methods of Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) generate Ancestry-Adjusted PRSs (AAPRSs), which allow for PRS analysis of multi-ancestry samples. Applied to schizophrenia PRS, we found the Khera AAPRS method to show superior portability and comparable prediction accuracy as compared with the Ge method. The three Biotypes of psychosis disorders had similar AAPRSs across ancestries. In genomic analysis of Biotypes, 12 genes, and isoforms showed significant genomic associations with specific Biotypes in a Transcriptome-Wide Association Study (TWAS) of genetically regulated expression (GReX) in the adult brain and fetal brain. TWAS inflation was addressed by the inclusion of genotype principal components in the association analyses. Seven of these 12 genes/isoforms satisfied Mendelian Randomization (MR) criteria for putative causality, including four genes TMEM140, ARTN, C1orf115, CYREN, and three transcripts ENSG00000272941, ENSG00000257176, ENSG00000287733. These genes are enriched in the biological pathways of Rearranged during Transfection (RET) signaling, Neural Cell Adhesion Molecule 1 (NCAM1) interactions, and NCAM signaling for neurite out-growth. The specific associations with Biotypes suggest that pharmacological clinical trials and biological investigations might benefit from analyzing Biotypes separately.

Incorporating multiple functional annotations to improve polygenic risk prediction accuracy

We present OmniPRS, a scalable biobank-scale framework that improves genetic risk prediction for complex traits by integrating genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics and functional annotations. It employs a mixed model incorporating tissue-specific genetic variance components from annotations to re-estimate single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects and constructs tissue-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and aggregates them into the final OmniPRS. Our experiments, encompassing 135 simulation scenarios and 11 representative traits, demonstrate that OmniPRS is flexible and robust, delivering efficient and accurate predictions comparable to ten leading PRS methods. For quantitative (binary) traits, OmniPRS achieved an average improvement of 52.31% (19.83%) versus the clumping and thresholding (C+T) method, 3.92% (1.31%) versus the annotation-integrated PRSs (LDpred-funct), and 8.44% (2.27%) versus the Bayesian-based PRSs (PRScs). Notably, it achieved 35× faster computation than the PRScs. This rapid, precise framework enables efficient polygenic risk scoring with multi-annotation integration for large-scale genomic studies.

Genetic Susceptibility to the Environment Moderates the Impact of Childhood Experiences on Psychotic, Depressive, and Anxiety Dimensions

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Gene-by-environment (GxE) studies in psychosis have exclusively focused on negative exposures. However, evidence supports the resilience-enhancing effect of positive factors on psychosis outcome. The Differential Susceptibility (DS) model proposes that common genetic variants may confer not only disproportionate responsiveness to negative environments, but also greater sensitivity to positive, resilience-enhancing conditions. This study is the first to apply the DS model to the expression of subclinical psychosis, employing polygenic risk scores of environmental sensitivity (PRS-ES). PRS-ES were hypothesized to moderate, in a DS manner, associations between childhood adversity and psychosis, affective, and anxiety dimensions in young adults. An exploratory goal examined whether PRS for psychotic-like experiences (PRS-PLE) also showed DS patterns.

STUDY DESIGN

PRS, schizotypy, PLE, depression, anxiety, and childhood adversity ratings were obtained for 197 nonclinical young adults. LEGIT software for testing competitive-confirmatory GxE models was employed.

STUDY RESULTS

Results largely supported DS: Individuals high on PRS-ES showed increased subclinical psychosis, depression, and anxiety if they had experienced elevated childhood adversity, and lower symptoms if exposed to low levels of adversity as compared with those with low PRS-ES. Similarly, PRS-PLE moderated the effect of adversity on PLE, positive schizotypy, and depression following the DS model, but only PRS-ES moderation on PLE survived statistical correction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that genetic DS to the environment is relevant to psychosis, depression, and anxiety. Current debates on reconceptualization of genetic "risk" and resilience may benefit from this insight that support optimistic views on preventative efforts for early detection and intervention.

Genetic Differences in Reactivity to the Environment Impact Psychotic-Like and Affective Reactivity in Daily Life

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Consistent with diathesis-stress models, psychosis research has focused on genetic moderation of adverse environmental exposures. In contrast, the Differential Susceptibility (DS) model suggests that the same genetic variants that increase risk-inducing effects of adverse experiences also enhance beneficial effects from positive experiences. This study examined whether individuals with high genetic susceptibility to the environment showed differential psychotic-like and affective reactivity in response to positive and negative events in daily life.

STUDY DESIGN

Experience sampling methodology assessed context (positive and stressful) and momentary levels of paranoia, psychotic-like experiences (PLE), and positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) in 217 non-clinical adults oversampled for schizotypy. Linear mixed models examined whether Polygenic Risk Scores of Environmental Sensitivity (PRS-ES) moderated the impact of current context on subsequent experiences.

STUDY RESULTS

PRS-ES moderated positive, but not stressful, context on subsequent levels of momentary paranoia, NA, and PA, but not PLE. Genetic and environmental (G × E) interactions indicated diathesis-stress at lower thresholds of PRS-ES, but a DS model at the highest threshold of the PRS-ES. Participants with elevated PRS-ES showed increased paranoia and NA and decreased PA in subsequent assessments when reporting low levels of positive situations, but also decreased paranoia and NA and increased PA when rating contexts as positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the influence of genetic sensitivity to the environment on psychotic-like and affective reactivity in daily life, particularly in response to positive contexts. This highlights the transdiagnostic protective role of positive experiences and informs ecological momentary interventions.

Classification of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder with comorbid traits and deep learning algorithms

Many psychiatric disorders share genetic liabilities, but whether these shared liabilities can be utilized to classify and differentiate psychiatric disorders remains unclear. In this study, we use polygenic risk scores (PRSs) of 42 traits comorbid with schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BIP), and major depressive disorder (MDD) to evaluate their utilities. We found that combining target specific PRS with PRSs of comorbid traits can improve the classification of the target disorders. Importantly, without inclusion of PRSs from targeted disorders, we can still classify SCZ (accuracy 0.710 ± 0.008, AUC 0.789 ± 0.011), BIP (accuracy 0.782 ± 0.006, AUC 0.852 ± 0.004), and MDD (accuracy 0.753 ± 0.019, AUC 0.822 ± 0.010). Furthermore, PRSs from comorbid traits alone can effectively differentiate unaffected controls and patients with SCZ, BIP, and MDD (accuracy 0.861 ± 0.003, AUC 0.961 ± 0.041). Our results demonstrate that shared liabilities can be used effectively to improve the classification and differentiation of these disorders. The finding that PRSs from comorbid traits alone can classify and differentiate SCZ, BIP and MDD reasonably well implies that a majority of the risk variants composing target PRSs are shared with comorbid traits. Overall, our results suggest that a data-driven approach may be feasible to classify and differentiate these disorders.

A multi-trait GWAS identifies novel genes influencing albuminuria

BACKGROUND

Albuminuria is common and is associated with increased risks of end-stage kidney disease and cardiovascular diseases, yet its underlying mechanism remains obscure. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for albuminuria did not consider gene pleiotropy and primarily focused on European ancestry populations. This study adopted a multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG) approach to jointly analyze two vital kidney traits, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) to identify and prioritize the genes associated with UACR.

METHODS

Data from the Taiwan Biobank from 2012 to 2023 were analyzed. GWAS of UACR and eGFR were performed separately and the summary statistics from these GWAS were jointly analyzed using MTAG. The polygenic risk scores (PRS) of UACR were constructed for validation. The UACR-associated loci were further fine-mapped and prioritized based on their deleteriousness, eQTL associations and relatedness to Mendelian kidney diseases.

RESULTS

MTAG analysis of the UACR revealed 15 genetic loci, including 12 novel loci. The PRS for UACR was significantly associated with urinary albumin level (P < .001) and microalbuminuria (P = .001-.045). A list of priority genes was generated. Twelve genes with high priority included the albumin endocytic receptor gene LRP2 and ciliary gene IFT172.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this multi-trait GWAS suggest that primary cilia play a role in sensing mechanical stimuli, leading to albumin endocytosis. The priority list of genes warrants further translational investigation to reduce albuminuria.

Genetic Analysis of Psychosis Biotypes: Shared Ancestry-Adjusted Polygenic Risk and Unique Genomic Associations

The Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network for Intermediate Phenotypes (B-SNIP) created psychosis Biotypes based on neurobiological measurements in a multi-ancestry sample. These Biotypes cut across DSM diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and bipolar disorder with psychosis. Two recently developed post hoc ancestry adjustment methods of Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) generate Ancestry-Adjusted PRSs (AAPRSs), which allow for PRS analysis of multi-ancestry samples. Applied to schizophrenia PRS, we found the Khera AAPRS method to show superior portability and comparable prediction accuracy as compared with the Ge method. The three Biotypes of psychosis disorders had similar AAPRSs across ancestries. In genomic analysis of Biotypes, 12 genes and isoforms showed significant genomic associations with specific Biotypes in Transcriptome-Wide Association Study (TWAS) of genetically regulated expression (GReX) in adult brain and fetal brain. TWAS inflation was addressed by inclusion of genotype principal components in the association analyses. Seven of these 12 genes/isoforms satisfied Mendelian Randomization (MR) criteria for putative causality, including four genes TMEM140, ARTN, C1orf115, CYREN, and three transcripts ENSG00000272941, ENSG00000257176, ENSG00000287733. These genes are enriched in the biological pathways of Rearranged during Transfection (RET) signaling, Neural Cell Adhesion Molecule 1 (NCAM1) interactions, and NCAM signaling for neurite out-growth. The specific associations with Biotypes suggest that pharmacological clinical trials and biological investigations might benefit from analyzing Biotypes separately.

Advancements and limitations in polygenic risk score methods for genomic prediction: a scoping review

This scoping review aims to identify and evaluate the landscape of Polygenic Risk Score (PRS)-based methods for genomic prediction from 2013 to 2023, highlighting their advancements, key concepts, and existing gaps in knowledge, research, and technology. Over the past decade, various PRS-based methods have emerged, each employing different statistical frameworks aimed at enhancing prediction accuracy, processing speed and memory efficiency. Despite notable advancements, challenges persist, including unrealistic assumptions regarding sample sizes and the polygenicity of traits necessary for accurate predictions, as well as limitations in exploring hyper-parameter spaces and considering environmental interactions. We included studies focusing on PRS-based methods for risk prediction that underwent methodological evaluations using valid approaches and released computational tools/software. Additionally, we restricted our selection to studies involving human participants that were published in English language. This review followed the standard protocol recommended by Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewer's Manual, systematically searching Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Additionally, searches included grey literature sources like pre-print servers such as bioRxiv, and articles recommended by experts to ensure comprehensive and diverse coverage of relevant records. This study identified 34 studies detailing 37 genomic prediction methods, the majority of which rely on linkage disequilibrium (LD) information and necessitate hyper-parameter tuning. Nine methods integrate functional/gene annotation, while 12 are suitable for cross-ancestry genomic prediction, with only one considering gene-environment (GxE) interaction. While some methods require individual-level data, most leverage summary statistics, offering flexibility. Despite progress, challenges remain. These include computational complexity and the need for large sample sizes for high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, recent methods exhibit varying effectiveness across traits, with absolute accuracies often falling short of clinical utility. Transferability across ancestries varies, influenced by trait heritability and diversity of training data, while handling admixed populations remains challenging. Additionally, the absence of standard error measurements for individual PRSs, crucial in clinical settings, underscores a critical gap. Another issue is the lack of customizable graphical visualization tools among current software packages. While genomic prediction methods have advanced significantly, there is still room for improvement. Addressing current challenges and embracing future research directions will lead to the development of more universally applicable, robust, and clinically relevant genomic prediction tools.

The Interaction of Polygenic Susceptibility to Stress and Childhood Adversity Dimensions Predicts Longitudinal Trajectories of Stress-Sensitivity

Stress-sensitivity (SS) is considered a psychobiological trait possibly resulting from the interaction of genetic and environmental factors (GxE). This study examined whether the interaction of SS-related genetic markers with interview-based dimensions of childhood adversity predicted longitudinal trajectories of low versus high SS. Participants were nonclinically-ascertained young adults comprising normative and elevated scores on schizotypy. SS trajectories were defined in a previous report based on three prospective assessments (23.5, 25, 28 years-old) of both retrospective (Perceived Stress Scale; PSS) and momentary (Experience Sampling Methodology; ESM) stress ratings. A total of n = 177 and n = 165 participants with PSS and ESM stress-sensitivity trajectories, respectively, as well as genetic data, were included in the study. GxE effects between a SS Polygenic Risk Score (PRS-SS) and a Genetic Risk Score of the Hypothalamic Pituitary Adrenal axis (GRS-HPA) with childhood adversity dimensions (Intrafamilial Adversity, Threat and Deprivation) on SS trajectories were examined. Threat was the most consistent predictor of persistently high SS. PRS-SS moderated the association of Threat with high-PSS. GRS-HPA moderated the effects of all adversity dimensions on high-PSS. The interaction of PRS-SS with Deprivation and GRS-HPA with Intrafamilial Adversity predicted trajectories of momentary social stress, but the effects were driven by those with lower genetic susceptibility. Genetic-HPA-axis moderates the effects of all adversity dimensions on persistent SS trajectories, as well as PRS-SS and Threat, particularly for retrospective stress measure. The findings highlight the complex interplay between GxE factors and suggest that PSS may better capture SS trait. Including biologically-meaningful GRS indexing SS and adversity dimensions in future studies using comprehensive stress measures would enhance our knowledge on high SS susceptibility and its relationship with diverse psychopathological outcomes.

Multiple phenotype association tests based on sliced inverse regression

BACKGROUND

Joint analysis of multiple phenotypes in studies of biological systems such as Genome-Wide Association Studies is critical to revealing the functional interactions between various traits and genetic variants, but growth of data in dimensionality has become a very challenging problem in the widespread use of joint analysis. To handle the excessiveness of variables, we consider the sliced inverse regression (SIR) method. Specifically, we propose a novel SIR-based association test that is robust and powerful in testing the association between multiple predictors and multiple outcomes.

RESULTS

We conduct simulation studies in both low- and high-dimensional settings with various numbers of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms and consider the correlation structure of traits. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods. We also successfully apply our method to the genetic association study of ADNI dataset. Both the simulation studies and real data analysis show that the SIR-based association test is valid and achieves a higher efficiency compared with its competitors.

CONCLUSION

Several scenarios with low- and high-dimensional responses and genotypes are considered in this paper. Our SIR-based method controls the estimated type I error at the pre-specified level α .

Classification of Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder and Major Depressive Disorder with Comorbid Traits and Deep Learning Algorithms

Recent GWASs have demonstrated that comorbid disorders share genetic liabilities. But whether and how these shared liabilities can be used for the classification and differentiation of comorbid disorders remains unclear. In this study, we use polygenic risk scores (PRSs) estimated from 42 comorbid traits and the deep neural networks (DNN) architecture to classify and differentiate schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BIP) and major depressive disorder (MDD). Multiple PRSs were obtained for individuals from the schizophrenia (SCZ) (cases = 6,317, controls = 7,240), bipolar disorder (BIP) (cases = 2,634, controls 4,425) and major depressive disorder (MDD) (cases = 1,704, controls = 3,357) datasets, and classification models were constructed with and without the inclusion of PRSs of the target (SCZ, BIP or MDD). Models with the inclusion of target PRSs performed well as expected. Surprisingly, we found that SCZ could be classified with only the PRSs from 35 comorbid traits (not including the target SCZ and directly related traits) (accuracy 0.760 ± 0.007, AUC 0.843 ± 0.005). Similar results were obtained for BIP (33 traits, accuracy 0.768 ± 0.007, AUC 0.848 ± 0.009), and MDD (36 traits, accuracy 0.794 ± 0.010, AUC 0.869 ± 0.004). Furthermore, these PRSs from comorbid traits alone could effectively differentiate unaffected controls, SCZ, BIP, and MDD patients (average categorical accuracy 0.861 ± 0.003, average AUC 0.961 ± 0.041). These results suggest that the shared liabilities from comorbid traits alone may be sufficient to classify SCZ, BIP and MDD. More importantly, these results imply that a data-driven and objective diagnosis and differentiation of SCZ, BIP and MDD may be feasible.

Identifying risk loci for obsessive-compulsive disorder and shared genetic component with schizophrenia: A large-scale multi-trait association analysis with summary statistics

Due to limited samples, no genetic loci have been identified for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in genome-wide association studies. Additionally, although co-morbidities between OCD and schizophrenia (SCZ) were observed, their common genetic etiology was not completely known. Here, we conducted a comprehensive investigation regarding the genetic architecture of OCD and the common genetic foundation shared by OCD and SCZ using summary statistics data (2688 cases and 7037 controls for OCD; 53,386 cases and 77,258 controls for SCZ). We discovered significant genetic correlation between OCD and SCZ (r̂g=0.296, P = 2.82 × 10-11). We then performed two multi-trait association analyses to detect OCD-associated loci and colocalization analysis to detect causal variants. Parallel gene-level analyses were also implemented. We identified 323 OCD-relevant variants located within 12 loci, with four loci shared the same causal variants between OCD and SCZ. Further, the gene-level analyses discovered 8 OCD-associated genes. Finally, multiple functional analyses at both SNP and gene levels showed that these genetic association signals had significant enrichments in the regions of left ventricle and anterior cingulate cortex, and suggested an important role of pathways involving regulation of telomere maintenance, histone phosphorylation, and GnRH secretion. Overall, this study identified new genetic loci for OCD and provided substantial evidence supporting common genetic foundation underlying OCD and SCZ. The findings advanced our understanding of genetic architecture and pathophysiology of OCD as well as shedding light on shared genetic etiology of the two disorders.

Machine Learning to Advance Human Genome-Wide Association Studies

Machine learning, including deep learning, reinforcement learning, and generative artificial intelligence are revolutionising every area of our lives when data are made available. With the help of these methods, we can decipher information from larger datasets while addressing the complex nature of biological systems in a more efficient way. Although machine learning methods have been introduced to human genetic epidemiological research as early as 2004, those were never used to their full capacity. In this review, we outline some of the main applications of machine learning to assigning human genetic loci to health outcomes. We summarise widely used methods and discuss their advantages and challenges. We also identify several tools, such as Combi, GenNet, and GMSTool, specifically designed to integrate these methods for hypothesis-free analysis of genetic variation data. We elaborate on the additional value and limitations of these tools from a geneticist's perspective. Finally, we discuss the fast-moving field of foundation models and large multi-modal omics biobank initiatives.

Fifty years of executive control research in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder:What we have learned and still need to know

For 50 years, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been considered a disorder of executive control (EC), the higher-order, cognitive skills that support self-regulation, goal attainment and what we generally call "attention." This review surveys our current understanding of the nature of EC as it pertains to ADHD and considers the evidence in support of eight hypotheses that can be derived from the EC theory of ADHD. This paper provides a resource for practitioners to aid in clinical decision-making. To support theory building, I draw a parallel between the EC theory of ADHD and the common gene-common variant model of complex traits such as ADHD. The conclusion offers strategies for advancing collaborative research.

mtPGS: Leverage multiple correlated traits for accurate polygenic score construction

Accurate polygenic scores (PGSs) facilitate the genetic prediction of complex traits and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Here, we develop a statistical method called multi-trait assisted PGS (mtPGS), which can construct accurate PGSs for a target trait of interest by leveraging multiple traits relevant to the target trait. Specifically, mtPGS borrows SNP effect size similarity information between the target trait and its relevant traits to improve the effect size estimation on the target trait, thus achieving accurate PGSs. In the process, mtPGS flexibly models the shared genetic architecture between the target and the relevant traits to achieve robust performance, while explicitly accounting for the environmental covariance among them to accommodate different study designs with various sample overlap patterns. In addition, mtPGS uses only summary statistics as input and relies on a deterministic algorithm with several algebraic techniques for scalable computation. We evaluate the performance of mtPGS through comprehensive simulations and applications to 25 traits in the UK Biobank, where in the real data mtPGS achieves an average of 0.90%-52.91% accuracy gain compared to the state-of-the-art PGS methods. Overall, mtPGS represents an accurate, fast, and robust solution for PGS construction in biobank-scale datasets.

Development of risk prediction models for depression combining genetic and early life risk factors

Background

Both genetic and early life risk factors play important roles in the pathogenesis and progression of adult depression. However, the interplay between these risk factors and their added value to risk prediction models have not been fully elucidated.

Methods

Leveraging a meta-analysis of major depressive disorder genome-wide association studies (N = 45,591 cases and 97,674 controls), we developed and optimized a polygenic risk score for depression using LDpred in a model selection dataset from the UK Biobank (N = 130,092 European ancestry individuals). In a UK Biobank test dataset (N = 278,730 European ancestry individuals), we tested whether the polygenic risk score and early life risk factors were associated with each other and compared their associations with depression phenotypes. Finally, we conducted joint predictive modeling to combine this polygenic risk score with early life risk factors by stepwise regression, and assessed the model performance in identifying individuals at high risk of depression.

Results

In the UK Biobank test dataset, the polygenic risk score for depression was moderately associated with multiple early life risk factors. For instance, a one standard deviation increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.16-fold increased odds of frequent domestic violence (95% CI: 1.14-1.19) and 1.09-fold increased odds of not having access to medical care as a child (95% CI: 1.05-1.14). However, the polygenic risk score was more strongly associated with depression phenotypes than most early life risk factors. A joint predictive model integrating the polygenic risk score, early life risk factors, age and sex achieved an AUROC of 0.6766 for predicting strictly defined major depressive disorder, while a model without the polygenic risk score and a model without any early life risk factors had an AUROC of 0.6593 and 0.6318, respectively.

Conclusion

We have developed a polygenic risk score to partly capture the genetic liability to depression. Although genetic and early life risk factors can be correlated, joint predictive models improved risk stratification despite limited improvement in magnitude, and may be explored as tools to better identify individuals at high risk of depression.

Multivariate extension of penalized regression on summary statistics to construct polygenic risk scores for correlated traits

Genetic correlations between human traits and disorders such as schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) diagnoses are well established. Improved prediction of individual traits has been obtained by combining predictors of multiple genetically correlated traits derived from summary statistics produced by genome-wide association studies, compared with single trait predictors. We extend this idea to penalized regression on summary statistics in Multivariate Lassosum, expressing regression coefficients for the multiple traits on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as correlated random effects, similarly to multi-trait summary statistic best linear unbiased predictors (MT-SBLUPs). We also allow the SNP contributions to genetic covariance and heritability to depend on genomic annotations. We conducted simulations with two dichotomous traits having polygenic architecture similar to SZ and BD, using genotypes from 29,330 subjects from the CARTaGENE cohort. Multivariate Lassosum produced polygenic risk scores (PRSs) more strongly correlated with the true genetic risk predictor and had better discrimination power between affected and non-affected subjects than previously published sparse multi-trait (PANPRS) and univariate (Lassosum, sparse LDpred2, and the standard clumping and thresholding) methods in most simulation settings. Application of Multivariate Lassosum to predict SZ, BD, and related psychiatric traits in the Eastern Quebec SZ and BD kindred study revealed associations with every trait stronger than those obtained with univariate sparse PRSs, particularly when heritability and genetic covariance depended on genomic annotations. Multivariate Lassosum thus appears promising to improve prediction of genetically correlated traits with summary statistics for a selected subset of SNPs.

Explainable multi-task learning improves the parallel estimation of polygenic risk scores for many diseases through shared genetic basis

Many complex diseases share common genetic determinants and are comorbid in a population. We hypothesized that the co-occurrences of diseases and their overlapping genetic etiology can be exploited to simultaneously improve multiple diseases' polygenic risk scores (PRS). This hypothesis was tested using a multi-task learning (MTL) approach based on an explainable neural network architecture. We found that parallel estimations of the PRS for 17 prevalent cancers in a pan-cancer MTL model were generally more accurate than independent estimations for individual cancers in comparable single-task learning (STL) models. Such performance improvement conferred by positive transfer learning was also observed consistently for 60 prevalent non-cancer diseases in a pan-disease MTL model. Interpretation of the MTL models revealed significant genetic correlations between the important sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms used by the neural network for PRS estimation. This suggested a well-connected network of diseases with shared genetic basis.

Predicting eating disorder and anxiety symptoms using disorder-specific and transdiagnostic polygenic scores for anorexia nervosa and obsessive-compulsive disorder

BACKGROUND

Clinical, epidemiological, and genetic findings support an overlap between eating disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and anxiety symptoms. However, little research has examined the role of genetics in the expression of underlying phenotypes. We investigated whether the anorexia nervosa (AN), OCD, or AN/OCD transdiagnostic polygenic scores (PGS) predict eating disorder, OCD, and anxiety symptoms in a large developmental cohort in a sex-specific manner.

METHODS

Using summary statistics from Psychiatric Genomics Consortium AN and OCD genome-wide association studies, we conducted an AN/OCD transdiagnostic genome-wide association meta-analysis. We then calculated AN, OCD, and AN/OCD PGS in participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children to predict eating disorder, OCD, and anxiety symptoms, stratified by sex (combined N = 3212-5369 per phenotype).

RESULTS

The PGS prediction of eating disorder, OCD, and anxiety phenotypes differed between sexes, although effect sizes were small. AN and AN/OCD PGS played a more prominent role in predicting eating disorder and anxiety risk than OCD PGS, especially in girls. AN/OCD PGS provided a small boost over AN PGS in the prediction of some anxiety symptoms. All three PGS predicted higher compulsive exercise across different developmental timepoints [β = 0.03 (s.e. = 0.01) for AN and AN/OCD PGS at age 14; β = 0.05 (s.e. = 0.02) for OCD PGS at age 16] in girls.

CONCLUSIONS

Compulsive exercise may have a transdiagnostic genetic etiology, and AN genetic risk may play a role in the presence of anxiety symptoms. Converging with prior twin literature, our results also suggest that some of the contribution of genetic risk may be sex-specific.

Genetic correlation and gene-based pleiotropy analysis for four major neurodegenerative diseases with summary statistics

Recent genome-wide association studies suggested shared genetic components between neurodegenerative diseases. However, pleiotropic association patterns among them remain poorly understood. We here analyzed 4 major neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and found suggestively positive genetic correlation. We next implemented a gene-centric pleiotropy analysis with a powerful method called PLACO and detected 280 pleiotropic associations (226 unique genes) with these diseases. Functional analyses demonstrated that these genes were enriched in the pancreas, liver, heart, blood, brain, and muscle tissues; and that 42 pleiotropic genes exhibited drug-gene interactions with 341 drugs. Using Mendelian randomization, we discovered that AD and PD can increase the risk of developing ALS, and that AD and ALS can also increase the risk of developing FTD, respectively. Overall, this study provides in-depth insights into shared genetic components and causal relationship among the 4 major neurodegenerative diseases, indicating genetic overlap and causality commonly drive their co-occurrence. It also has important implications on the etiology understanding, drug development and therapeutic targets for neurodegenerative diseases.

Statistical Methods for Disease Risk Prediction with Genotype Data

Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is the basic unit to understand the heritability of complex traits. One attractive application of the susceptible SNPs is to construct prediction models for assessing disease risk. Here, we introduce prediction methods for human traits using SNPs data, including the polygenic risk score (PRS), linear mixed models (LMMs), penalized regressions, and methods for controlling population stratification.

Cohort profile: the Swedish National Quality Register for bipolar disorder(BipoläR)

PURPOSE

The Swedish National Quality Register for bipolar affective disorder, BipoläR, was established in 2004 to provide nationwide indicators for quality assessment and development in the clinical care of individuals with bipolar spectrum disorder. An ancillary aim was to provide data for bipolar disorder research.

PARTICIPANTS

Inclusion criteria for registration in BipoläR is a diagnosis of bipolar spectrum disorder (ICD codes: F25.0, F30.1-F30.2, F30.8-F31.9, F34.0) and treatment at an outpatient clinic in Sweden. BipoläR collects data from baseline and annual follow-up visits throughout Sweden. Data is collected using questionnaires administered by healthcare staff. The questions cover sociodemographic, diagnostic, treatment, outcomes and patient reported outcome variables. The register currently includes 39 583 individual patients with a total of 75 423 baseline and follow-up records.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Data from BipoläR has been used in several peer-reviewed publications. Studies have provided knowledge on effectiveness, side effects and use of pharmacological and psychological treatment in bipolar disorder. In addition, findings on the diagnosis of bipolar disorder, risk factors for attempted and completed suicide and health economics have been reported. The Swedish Bipolar Collection project has contributed to a large number of published studies and provides important information on the genetic architecture of bipolar disorder, the impact of genetic variation on disease characteristics and treatment outcome.

FUTURE PLANS

Data collection is ongoing with no fixed end date. Currently, approximately 5000 new registrations are added each year. Cohort data are available via a formalised request procedure from Centre of Registers Västra Götaland (e-mail: registercentrum@vgregion.se). Data requests for research purposes require an entity responsible for the research and an ethical approval.

ExPRSweb: An online repository with polygenic risk scores for common health-related exposures

Complex traits are influenced by genetic risk factors, lifestyle, and environmental variables, so-called exposures. Some exposures, e.g., smoking or lipid levels, have common genetic modifiers identified in genome-wide association studies. Because measurements are often unfeasible, exposure polygenic risk scores (ExPRSs) offer an alternative to study the influence of exposures on various phenotypes. Here, we collected publicly available summary statistics for 28 exposures and applied four common PRS methods to generate ExPRSs in two large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative and the UK Biobank. We established ExPRSs for 27 exposures and demonstrated their applicability in phenome-wide association studies and as predictors for common chronic conditions. Especially the addition of multiple ExPRSs showed, for several chronic conditions, an improvement compared to prediction models that only included traditional, disease-focused PRSs. To facilitate follow-up studies, we share all ExPRS constructs and generated results via an online repository called ExPRSweb.

Correlation scan: identifying genomic regions that affect genetic correlations applied to fertility traits

Although the genetic correlations between complex traits have been estimated for more than a century, only recently we have started to map and understand the precise localization of the genomic region(s) that underpin these correlations. Reproductive traits are often genetically correlated. Yet, we don't fully understand the complexities, synergism, or trade-offs between male and female fertility. In this study, we used reproductive traits in two cattle populations (Brahman; BB, Tropical Composite; TC) to develop a novel framework termed correlation scan (CS). This framework was used to identify local regions associated with the genetic correlations between male and female fertility traits. Animals were genotyped with bovine high-density single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) chip assay. The data used consisted of ~1000 individual records measured through frequent ovarian scanning for age at first corpus luteum (AGECL) and a laboratory assay for serum levels of insulin growth hormone (IGF1 measured in bulls, IGF1b, or cows, IGF1c). The methodology developed herein used correlations of 500-SNP effects in a 100-SNPs sliding window in each chromosome to identify local genomic regions that either drive or antagonize the genetic correlations between traits. We used Fisher's Z-statistics through a permutation method to confirm which regions of the genome harboured significant correlations. About 30% of the total genomic regions were identified as driving and antagonizing genetic correlations between male and female fertility traits in the two populations. These regions confirmed the polygenic nature of the traits being studied and pointed to genes of interest. For BB, the most important chromosome in terms of local regions is often located on bovine chromosome (BTA) 14. However, the important regions are spread across few different BTA's in TC. Quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and functional enrichment analysis revealed many significant windows co-localized with known QTLs related to milk production and fertility traits, especially puberty. In general, the enriched reproductive QTLs driving the genetic correlations between male and female fertility are the same for both cattle populations, while the antagonizing regions were population specific. Moreover, most of the antagonizing regions were mapped to chromosome X. These results suggest regions of chromosome X for further investigation into the trade-offs between male and female fertility. We compared the CS with two other recently proposed methods that map local genomic correlations. Some genomic regions were significant across methods. Yet, many significant regions identified with the CS were overlooked by other methods.

Research Review: A guide to computing and implementing polygenic scores in developmental research

The increasing availability of genotype data in longitudinal population- and family-based samples provides opportunities for using polygenic scores (PGS) to study developmental questions in child and adolescent psychology and psychiatry. Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of how PGS can be generated and implemented in developmental psycho(patho)logy, with a focus on longitudinal designs. As such, the paper is organized into three parts: First, we provide a formal definition of polygenic scores and related concepts, focusing on assumptions and limitations. Second, we give a general overview of the methods used to compute polygenic scores, ranging from the classic approach to more advanced methods. We include recommendations and reference resources available to researchers aiming to conduct PGS analyses. Finally, we focus on the practical applications of PGS in the analysis of longitudinal data. We describe how PGS have been used to research developmental outcomes, and how they can be applied to longitudinal data to address developmental questions.

The UK Biobank: A Shining Example of Genome-Wide Association Study Science with the Power to Detect the Murky Complications of Real-World Epidemiology

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have successfully identified thousands of genetic variants that are reliably associated with human traits. Although GWASs are restricted to certain variant frequencies, they have improved our understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases. The UK Biobank (UKBB) has brought substantial analytical opportunity and performance to association studies. The dramatic expansion of many GWAS sample sizes afforded by the inclusion of UKBB data has improved the power of estimation of effect sizes but, critically, has done so in a context where phenotypic depth and precision enable outcome dissection and the application of epidemiological approaches. However, at the same time, the availability of such a large, well-curated, and deeply measured population-based collection has the capacity to increase our exposure to the many complications and inferential complexities associated with GWASs and other analyses. In this review, we discuss the impact that UKBB has had in the GWAS era, some of the opportunities that it brings, and exemplar challenges that illustrate the reality of using data from this world-leading resource.

Multiethnic polygenic risk prediction in diverse populations through transfer learning

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) leverage the genetic contribution of an individual's genotype to a complex trait by estimating disease risk. Traditional PRS prediction methods are predominantly for the European population. The accuracy of PRS prediction in non-European populations is diminished due to much smaller sample size of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In this article, we introduced a novel method to construct PRS for non-European populations, abbreviated as TL-Multi, by conducting a transfer learning framework to learn useful knowledge from the European population to correct the bias for non-European populations. We considered non-European GWAS data as the target data and European GWAS data as the informative auxiliary data. TL-Multi borrows useful information from the auxiliary data to improve the learning accuracy of the target data while preserving the efficiency and accuracy. To demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed method, we applied TL-Multi to predict the risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Asian population and the risk of asthma in the Indian population by borrowing information from the European population. TL-Multi achieved better prediction accuracy than the competing methods, including Lassosum and meta-analysis in both simulations and real applications.

A penalized linear mixed model with generalized method of moments for prediction analysis on high-dimensional multi-omics data

With the advances in high-throughput biotechnologies, high-dimensional multi-layer omics data become increasingly available. They can provide both confirmatory and complementary information to disease risk and thus have offered unprecedented opportunities for risk prediction studies. However, the high-dimensionality and complex inter/intra-relationships among multi-omics data have brought tremendous analytical challenges. Here we present a computationally efficient penalized linear mixed model with generalized method of moments estimator (MpLMMGMM) for the prediction analysis on multi-omics data. Our method extends the widely used linear mixed model proposed for genomic risk predictions to model multi-omics data, where kernel functions are used to capture various types of predictive effects from different layers of omics data and penalty terms are introduced to reduce the impact of noise. Compared with existing penalized linear mixed models, the proposed method adopts the generalized method of moments estimator and it is much more computationally efficient. Through extensive simulation studies and the analysis of positron emission tomography imaging outcomes, we have demonstrated that MpLMMGMM can simultaneously consider a large number of variables and efficiently select those that are predictive from the corresponding omics layers. It can capture both linear and nonlinear predictive effects and achieves better prediction performance than competing methods.

BayesR3 enables fast MCMC blocked processing for largescale multi-trait genomic prediction and QTN mapping analysis

Bayesian methods, such as BayesR, for predicting the genetic value or risk of individuals from their genotypes, such as Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP), are often implemented using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) process. However, the generation of Markov chains is computationally slow. We introduce a form of blocked Gibbs sampling for estimating SNP effects from Markov chains that greatly reduces computational time by sampling each SNP effect iteratively n-times from conditional block posteriors. Subsequent iteration over all blocks m-times produces chains of length m × n. We use this strategy to solve large-scale genomic prediction and fine-mapping problems using the Bayesian MCMC mixed-effects genetic model, BayesR3. We validate the method using simulated data, followed by analysis of empirical dairy cattle data using high dimension milk mid infra-red spectra data as an example of “omics” data and show its use to increase the precision of mapping variants affecting milk, fat, and protein yields relative to a univariate analysis of milk, fat, and protein.

BayesR3 samples the polymorphisms affecting complex traits at reduced computational cost to predict the genetic value, breeding value, or individual risk of genotypes.

Genomic Prediction Strategies for Dry-Down-Related Traits in Maize

For efficient mechanical harvesting, low grain moisture content at harvest time is essential. Dry-down rate (DR), which refers to the reduction in grain moisture content after the plants enter physiological maturity, is one of the main factors affecting the amount of moisture in the kernels. Dry-down rate is estimated using kernel moisture content at physiological maturity and at harvest time; however, measuring kernel water content at physiological maturity, which is sometimes referred as kernel water content at black layer formation (BWC), is time-consuming and resource-demanding. Therefore, inferring BWC from other correlated and easier to measure traits could improve the efficiency of breeding efforts for dry-down-related traits. In this study, multi-trait genomic prediction models were used to estimate genetic correlations between BWC and water content at harvest time (HWC) and flowering time (FT). The results show there is moderate-to-high genetic correlation between the traits (0.24-0.66), which supports the use of multi-trait genomic prediction models. To investigate genomic prediction strategies, several cross-validation scenarios representing possible implementations of genomic prediction were evaluated. The results indicate that, in most scenarios, the use of multi-trait genomic prediction models substantially increases prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the inclusion of historical records for correlated traits can improve prediction accuracy, even when the target trait is not measured on all the plots in the training set.

PolarMorphism enables discovery of shared genetic variants across multiple traits from GWAS summary statistics

MOTIVATION

Pleiotropic SNPs are associated with multiple traits. Such SNPs can help pinpoint biological processes with an effect on multiple traits or point to a shared etiology between traits. We present PolarMorphism, a new method for the identification of pleiotropic SNPs from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics. PolarMorphism can be readily applied to more than two traits or whole trait domains. PolarMorphism makes use of the fact that trait-specific SNP effect sizes can be seen as Cartesian coordinates and can thus be converted to polar coordinates r (distance from the origin) and theta (angle with the Cartesian x-axis, in the case of two traits). r describes the overall effect of a SNP, while theta describes the extent to which a SNP is shared. r and theta are used to determine the significance of SNP sharedness, resulting in a P-value per SNP that can be used for further analysis.

RESULTS

We apply PolarMorphism to a large collection of publicly available GWAS summary statistics enabling the construction of a pleiotropy network that shows the extent to which traits share SNPs. We show how PolarMorphism can be used to gain insight into relationships between traits and trait domains and contrast it with genetic correlation. Furthermore, pathway analysis of the newly discovered pleiotropic SNPs demonstrates that analysis of more than two traits simultaneously yields more biologically relevant results than the combined results of pairwise analysis of the same traits. Finally, we show that PolarMorphism is more efficient and more powerful than previously published methods.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

code: https://github.com/UMCUGenetics/PolarMorphism, results: 10.5281/zenodo.5844193.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Considering hormone-sensitive cancers as a single disease in the UK biobank reveals shared aetiology

Hormone-related cancers, including cancers of the breast, prostate, ovaries, uterine, and thyroid, globally contribute to the majority of cancer incidence. We hypothesize that hormone-sensitive cancers share common genetic risk factors that have rarely been investigated by previous genomic studies of site-specific cancers. Here, we show that considering hormone-sensitive cancers as a single disease in the UK Biobank reveals shared genetic aetiology. We observe that a significant proportion of variance in disease liability is explained by the genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), i.e., SNP-based heritability on the liability scale is estimated as 10.06% (SE 0.70%). Moreover, we find 55 genome-wide significant SNPs for the disease, using a genome-wide association study. Pair-wise analysis also estimates positive genetic correlations between some pairs of hormone-sensitive cancers although they are not statistically significant. Our finding suggests that heritable genetic factors may be a key driver in the mechanism of carcinogenesis shared by hormone-sensitive cancers.

Shared components of heritability across genetically correlated traits

Most disease-associated genetic variants are pleiotropic, affecting multiple genetically correlated traits. Their pleiotropic associations can be mechanistically informative: if many variants have similar patterns of association, they may act via similar pleiotropic mechanisms, forming a shared component of heritability. We developed pleiotropic decomposition regression (PDR) to identify shared components and their underlying genetic variants. We validated PDR on simulated data and identified limitations of existing methods in recovering the true components. We applied PDR to three clusters of five to six traits genetically correlated with coronary artery disease (CAD), asthma, and type II diabetes (T2D), producing biologically interpretable components. For CAD, PDR identified components related to BMI, hypertension, and cholesterol, and it clarified the relationship among these highly correlated risk factors. We assigned variants to components, calculated their posterior-mean effect sizes, and performed out-of-sample validation. Our posterior-mean effect sizes pool statistical power across traits and substantially boost the correlation (r2) between true and estimated effect sizes (compared with the original summary statistics) by 94% and 70% for asthma and T2D out of sample, respectively, and by a predicted 300% for CAD.

Combined polygenic risk scores of different psychiatric traits predict general and specific psychopathology in childhood

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) operationalize genetic propensity toward a particular mental disorder and hold promise as early predictors of psychopathology, but before a PRS can be used clinically, explanatory power must be increased and the specificity for a psychiatric domain established. To enable early detection, it is crucial to study these psychometric properties in childhood. We examined whether PRSs associate more with general or with specific psychopathology in school-aged children. Additionally, we tested whether psychiatric PRSs can be combined into a multi-PRS score for improved performance.

METHODS

We computed 16 PRSs based on GWASs of psychiatric phenotypes, but also neuroticism and cognitive ability, in mostly adult populations. Study participants were 9,247 school-aged children from three population-based cohorts of the DREAM-BIG consortium: ALSPAC (UK), The Generation R Study (Netherlands), and MAVAN (Canada). We associated each PRS with general and specific psychopathology factors, derived from a bifactor model based on self-report and parental, teacher, and observer reports. After fitting each PRS in separate models, we also tested a multi-PRS model, in which all PRSs are entered simultaneously as predictors of the general psychopathology factor.

RESULTS

Seven PRSs were associated with the general psychopathology factor after multiple testing adjustment, two with specific externalizing and five with specific internalizing psychopathology. PRSs predicted general psychopathology independently of each other, with the exception of depression and depressive symptom PRSs. Most PRSs associated with a specific psychopathology domain, were also associated with general child psychopathology.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that PRSs based on current GWASs of psychiatric phenotypes tend to be associated with general psychopathology, or both general and specific psychiatric domains, but not with one specific psychopathology domain only. Furthermore, PRSs can be combined to improve predictive ability. PRS users should therefore be conscious of nonspecificity and consider using multiple PRSs simultaneously, when predicting psychiatric disorders.

Using polygenic scores and clinical data for bipolar disorder patient stratification and lithium response prediction: machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.

AIMS

To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.

METHOD

This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.

RESULTS

The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.

CONCLUSIONS

Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.

XPXP: improving polygenic prediction by cross-population and cross-phenotype analysis

MOTIVATION

As increasing sample sizes from genome-wide association studies (GWASs), polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have shown great potential in personalized medicine with disease risk prediction, prevention and treatment. However, the PRS constructed using European samples becomes less accurate when it is applied to individuals from non-European populations. It is an urgent task to improve the accuracy of PRSs in under-represented populations, such as African populations and East Asian populations.

RESULTS

In this article, we propose a cross-population and cross-phenotype (XPXP) method for construction of PRSs in under-represented populations. XPXP can construct accurate PRSs by leveraging biobank-scale datasets in European populations and multiple GWASs of genetically correlated phenotypes. XPXP also allows to incorporate population-specific and phenotype-specific effects, and thus further improves the accuracy of PRS. Through comprehensive simulation studies and real data analysis, we demonstrated that our XPXP outperformed existing PRS approaches. We showed that the height PRSs constructed by XPXP achieved 9% and 18% improvement over the runner-up method in terms of predicted R2 in East Asian and African populations, respectively. We also showed that XPXP substantially improved the stratification ability in identifying individuals at high genetic risk of type 2 diabetes.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The XPXP software and all analysis code are available at github.com/YangLabHKUST/XPXP.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

PGS-server: accuracy, robustness and transferability of polygenic score methods for biobank scale studies

Polygenic scores (PGS) are important tools for carrying out genetic prediction of common diseases and disease related complex traits, facilitating the development of precision medicine. Unfortunately, despite the critical importance of PGS and the vast number of PGS methods recently developed, few comprehensive comparison studies have been performed to evaluate the effectiveness of PGS methods. To fill this critical knowledge gap, we performed a comprehensive comparison study on 12 different PGS methods through internal evaluations on 25 quantitative and 25 binary traits within the UK Biobank with sample sizes ranging from 147 408 to 336 573, and through external evaluations via 25 cross-study and 112 cross-ancestry analyses on summary statistics from multiple genome-wide association studies with sample sizes ranging from 1415 to 329 345. We evaluate the prediction accuracy, computational scalability, as well as robustness and transferability of different PGS methods across datasets and/or genetic ancestries, providing important guidelines for practitioners in choosing PGS methods. Besides method comparison, we present a simple aggregation strategy that combines multiple PGS from different methods to take advantage of their distinct benefits to achieve stable and superior prediction performance. To facilitate future applications of PGS, we also develop a PGS webserver (http://www.pgs-server.com/) that allows users to upload summary statistics and choose different PGS methods to fit the data directly. We hope that our results, method and webserver will facilitate the routine application of PGS across different research areas.

A comprehensive gene-centric pleiotropic association analysis for 14 psychiatric disorders with GWAS summary statistics

BACKGROUND

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have revealed the polygenic nature of psychiatric disorders and discovered a few of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with multiple psychiatric disorders. However, the extent and pattern of pleiotropy among distinct psychiatric disorders remain not completely clear.

METHODS

We analyzed 14 psychiatric disorders using summary statistics available from the largest GWASs by far. We first applied the cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) to estimate genetic correlation between disorders. Then, we performed a gene-based pleiotropy analysis by first aggregating a set of SNP-level associations into a single gene-level association signal using MAGMA. From a methodological perspective, we viewed the identification of pleiotropic associations across the entire genome as a high-dimensional problem of composite null hypothesis testing and utilized a novel method called PLACO for pleiotropy mapping. We ultimately implemented functional analysis for identified pleiotropic genes and used Mendelian randomization for detecting causal association between these disorders.

RESULTS

We confirmed extensive genetic correlation among psychiatric disorders, based on which these disorders can be grouped into three diverse categories. We detected a large number of pleiotropic genes including 5884 associations and 2424 unique genes and found that differentially expressed pleiotropic genes were significantly enriched in pancreas, liver, heart, and brain, and that the biological process of these genes was remarkably enriched in regulating neurodevelopment, neurogenesis, and neuron differentiation, offering substantial evidence supporting the validity of identified pleiotropic loci. We further demonstrated that among all the identified pleiotropic genes there were 342 unique ones linked with 6353 drugs with drug-gene interaction which can be classified into distinct types including inhibitor, agonist, blocker, antagonist, and modulator. We also revealed causal associations among psychiatric disorders, indicating that genetic overlap and causality commonly drove the observed co-existence of these disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is among the first large-scale effort to characterize gene-level pleiotropy among a greatly expanded set of psychiatric disorders and provides important insight into shared genetic etiology underlying these disorders. The findings would inform psychiatric nosology, identify potential neurobiological mechanisms predisposing to specific clinical presentations, and pave the way to effective drug targets for clinical treatment.

Smooth-threshold multivariate genetic prediction incorporating gene–environment interactions

We propose a genetic prediction modeling approach for genome-wide association study (GWAS) data that can include not only marginal gene effects but also gene–environment (GxE) interaction effects—i.e., multiplicative effects of environmental factors with genes rather than merely additive effects of each. The proposed approach is a straightforward extension of our previous multiple regression-based method, STMGP (smooth-threshold multivariate genetic prediction), with the new feature being that genome-wide test statistics from a GxE interaction analysis are used to weight the corresponding variants. We develop a simple univariate regression approximation to the GxE interaction effect that allows a direct fit of the STMGP framework without modification. The sparse nature of our model automatically removes irrelevant predictors (including variants and GxE combinations), and the model is able to simultaneously incorporate multiple environmental variables. Simulation studies to evaluate the proposed method in comparison with other modeling approaches demonstrate its superior performance under the presence of GxE interaction effects. We illustrate the usefulness of our prediction model through application to real GWAS data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).

Combining schizophrenia and depression polygenic risk scores improves the genetic prediction of lithium response in bipolar disorder patients

Lithium is the gold standard therapy for Bipolar Disorder (BD) but its effectiveness differs widely between individuals. The molecular mechanisms underlying treatment response heterogeneity are not well understood, and personalized treatment in BD remains elusive. Genetic analyses of the lithium treatment response phenotype may generate novel molecular insights into lithium's therapeutic mechanisms and lead to testable hypotheses to improve BD management and outcomes. We used fixed effect meta-analysis techniques to develop meta-analytic polygenic risk scores (MET-PRS) from combinations of highly correlated psychiatric traits, namely schizophrenia (SCZ), major depression (MD) and bipolar disorder (BD). We compared the effects of cross-disorder MET-PRS and single genetic trait PRS on lithium response. For the PRS analyses, we included clinical data on lithium treatment response and genetic information for n = 2283 BD cases from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen; www.ConLiGen.org ). Higher SCZ and MD PRSs were associated with poorer lithium treatment response whereas BD-PRS had no association with treatment outcome. The combined MET2-PRS comprising of SCZ and MD variants (MET2-PRS) and a model using SCZ and MD-PRS sequentially improved response prediction, compared to single-disorder PRS or to a combined score using all three traits (MET3-PRS). Patients in the highest decile for MET2-PRS loading had 2.5 times higher odds of being classified as poor responders than patients with the lowest decile MET2-PRS scores. An exploratory functional pathway analysis of top MET2-PRS variants was conducted. Findings may inform the development of future testing strategies for personalized lithium prescribing in BD.

An integrative analysis of genomic and exposomic data for complex traits and phenotypic prediction

Complementary to the genome, the concept of exposome has been proposed to capture the totality of human environmental exposures. While there has been some recent progress on the construction of the exposome, few tools exist that can integrate the genome and exposome for complex trait analyses. Here we propose a linear mixed model approach to bridge this gap, which jointly models the random effects of the two omics layers on phenotypes of complex traits. We illustrate our approach using traits from the UK Biobank (e.g., BMI and height for N ~ 35,000) with a small fraction of the exposome that comprises 28 lifestyle factors. The joint model of the genome and exposome explains substantially more phenotypic variance and significantly improves phenotypic prediction accuracy, compared to the model based on the genome alone. The additional phenotypic variance captured by the exposome includes its additive effects as well as non-additive effects such as genome-exposome (gxe) and exposome-exposome (exe) interactions. For example, 19% of variation in BMI is explained by additive effects of the genome, while additional 7.2% by additive effects of the exposome, 1.9% by exe interactions and 4.5% by gxe interactions. Correspondingly, the prediction accuracy for BMI, computed using Pearson's correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes, improves from 0.15 (based on the genome alone) to 0.35 (based on the genome and exposome). We also show, using established theories, that integrating genomic and exposomic data can be an effective way of attaining a clinically meaningful level of prediction accuracy for disease traits. In conclusion, the genomic and exposomic effects can contribute to phenotypic variation via their latent relationships, i.e. genome-exposome correlation, and gxe and exe interactions, and modelling these effects has a potential to improve phenotypic prediction accuracy and thus holds a great promise for future clinical practice.

M-DATA: A statistical approach to jointly analyzing de novo mutations for multiple traits

Recent studies have demonstrated that multiple early-onset diseases have shared risk genes, based on findings from de novo mutations (DNMs). Therefore, we may leverage information from one trait to improve statistical power to identify genes for another trait. However, there are few methods that can jointly analyze DNMs from multiple traits. In this study, we develop a framework called M-DATA (Multi-trait framework for De novo mutation Association Test with Annotations) to increase the statistical power of association analysis by integrating data from multiple correlated traits and their functional annotations. Using the number of DNMs from multiple diseases, we develop a method based on an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to both infer the degree of association between two diseases as well as to estimate the gene association probability for each disease. We apply our method to a case study of jointly analyzing data from congenital heart disease (CHD) and autism. Our method was able to identify 23 genes for CHD from joint analysis, including 12 novel genes, which is substantially more than single-trait analysis, leading to novel insights into CHD disease etiology.

Genetic prediction of complex traits with polygenic scores: a statistical review

Accurate genetic prediction of complex traits can facilitate disease screening, improve early intervention, and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Genetic prediction of complex traits requires the development of statistical methods that can properly model polygenic architecture and construct a polygenic score (PGS). We present a comprehensive review of 46 methods for PGS construction. We connect the majority of these methods through a multiple linear regression framework which can be instrumental for understanding their prediction performance for traits with distinct genetic architectures. We discuss the practical considerations of PGS analysis as well as challenges and future directions of PGS method development. We hope our review serves as a useful reference both for statistical geneticists who develop PGS methods and for data analysts who perform PGS analysis.

Incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy in UK Biobank and 23andMe data sets

Polygenic risk prediction is a widely investigated topic because of its promising clinical applications. Genetic variants in functional regions of the genome are enriched for complex trait heritability. Here, we introduce a method for polygenic prediction, LDpred-funct, that leverages trait-specific functional priors to increase prediction accuracy. We fit priors using the recently developed baseline-LD model, including coding, conserved, regulatory, and LD-related annotations. We analytically estimate posterior mean causal effect sizes and then use cross-validation to regularize these estimates, improving prediction accuracy for sparse architectures. We applied LDpred-funct to predict 21 highly heritable traits in the UK Biobank (avg N = 373 K as training data). LDpred-funct attained a +4.6% relative improvement in average prediction accuracy (avg prediction R2 = 0.144; highest R2 = 0.413 for height) compared to SBayesR (the best method that does not incorporate functional information). For height, meta-analyzing training data from UK Biobank and 23andMe cohorts (N = 1107 K) increased prediction R2 to 0.431. Our results show that incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy, consistent with the functional architecture of complex traits.

Multivariate analysis reveals shared genetic architecture of brain morphology and human behavior

Human variation in brain morphology and behavior are related and highly heritable. Yet, it is largely unknown to what extent specific features of brain morphology and behavior are genetically related. Here, we introduce a computationally efficient approach for multivariate genomic-relatedness-based restricted maximum likelihood (MGREML) to estimate the genetic correlation between a large number of phenotypes simultaneously. Using individual-level data (N = 20,190) from the UK Biobank, we provide estimates of the heritability of gray-matter volume in 74 regions of interest (ROIs) in the brain and we map genetic correlations between these ROIs and health-relevant behavioral outcomes, including intelligence. We find four genetically distinct clusters in the brain that are aligned with standard anatomical subdivision in neuroscience. Behavioral traits have distinct genetic correlations with brain morphology which suggests trait-specific relevance of ROIs. These empirical results illustrate how MGREML can be used to estimate internally consistent and high-dimensional genetic correlation matrices in large datasets.

Identifying pleiotropic genes for complex phenotypes with summary statistics from a perspective of composite null hypothesis testing

Pleiotropy has important implication on genetic connection among complex phenotypes and facilitates our understanding of disease etiology. Genome-wide association studies provide an unprecedented opportunity to detect pleiotropic associations; however, efficient pleiotropy test methods are still lacking. We here consider pleiotropy identification from a methodological perspective of high-dimensional composite null hypothesis and propose a powerful gene-based method called MAIUP. MAIUP is constructed based on the traditional intersection-union test with two sets of independent P-values as input and follows a novel idea that was originally proposed under the high-dimensional mediation analysis framework. The key improvement of MAIUP is that it takes the composite null nature of pleiotropy test into account by fitting a three-component mixture null distribution, which can ultimately generate well-calibrated P-values for effective control of family-wise error rate and false discover rate. Another attractive advantage of MAIUP is its ability to effectively address the issue of overlapping subjects commonly encountered in association studies. Simulation studies demonstrate that compared with other methods, only MAIUP can maintain correct type I error control and has higher power across a wide range of scenarios. We apply MAIUP to detect shared associated genes among 14 psychiatric disorders with summary statistics and discover many new pleiotropic genes that are otherwise not identified if failing to account for the issue of composite null hypothesis testing. Functional and enrichment analyses offer additional evidence supporting the validity of these identified pleiotropic genes associated with psychiatric disorders. Overall, MAIUP represents an efficient method for pleiotropy identification.

PUMAS: fine-tuning polygenic risk scores with GWAS summary statistics

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have wide applications in human genetics research, but often include tuning parameters which are difficult to optimize in practice due to limited access to individual-level data. Here, we introduce PUMAS, a novel method to fine-tune PRS models using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Through extensive simulations, external validations, and analysis of 65 traits, we demonstrate that PUMAS can perform various model-tuning procedures using GWAS summary statistics and effectively benchmark and optimize PRS models under diverse genetic architecture. Furthermore, we show that fine-tuned PRSs will significantly improve statistical power in downstream association analysis.

Comparison of methods for estimating genetic correlation between complex traits using GWAS summary statistics

Genetic correlation is the correlation of phenotypic effects by genetic variants across the genome on two phenotypes. It is an informative metric to quantify the overall genetic similarity between complex traits, which provides insights into their polygenic genetic architecture. Several methods have been proposed to estimate genetic correlation based on data collected from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Due to the easy access of GWAS summary statistics and computational efficiency, methods only requiring GWAS summary statistics as input have become more popular than methods utilizing individual-level genotype data. Here, we present a benchmark study for different summary-statistics-based genetic correlation estimation methods through simulation and real data applications. We focus on two major technical challenges in estimating genetic correlation: marker dependency caused by linkage disequilibrium (LD) and sample overlap between different studies. To assess the performance of different methods in the presence of these two challenges, we first conducted comprehensive simulations with diverse LD patterns and sample overlaps. Then we applied these methods to real GWAS summary statistics for a wide spectrum of complex traits. Based on these experiments, we conclude that methods relying on accurate LD estimation are less robust in real data applications due to the imprecision of LD obtained from reference panels. Our findings offer guidance on how to choose appropriate methods for genetic correlation estimation in post-GWAS analysis.