Performance evaluation of 10-year ultrasound image-based stroke/cardiovascular (CV) risk calculator by comparing against ten conventional CV risk calculators: A diabetic study

Evidence supporting the choice of a new cardiovascular risk equation for Australia

This article reviews the risk equations recommended for use in international cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines and assesses their suitability for use in Australia against a set of a priori defined selection criteria. The review and assessment were commissioned by the National Heart Foundation of Australia on behalf of the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance to inform recommendations on CVD risk estimation as part of the 2023 update of the Australian CVD risk assessment and management guidelines. Selected international risk equations were assessed against eight selection criteria: development using contemporary data; inclusion of established cardiovascular risk factors; inclusion of ethnicity and deprivation measures; prediction of a broad selection of fatal and non-fatal CVD outcomes; population representativeness; model performance; external validation in an Australian dataset; and the ability to be recalibrated or modified. Of the ten risk prediction equations reviewed, the New Zealand PREDICT equation met seven of the eight selection criteria, and met additional usability criteria aimed at assessing the ability to apply the risk equation in practice in Australia.

[Subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries in patients with rheumatoid arthritis with low cardiovascular risk]

AIM

To evaluate the detection rate of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with low cardiovascular risk (CVR).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 182 RA patients with low CVR (mSCORE<1%) and no established cardiovascular diseases and a control group comprising 100 people. Atherosclerotic lesion of the carotid arteries was assessed using Doppler ultrasound of the carotid arteries and was determined by the detection of atherosclerotic plaque (ASP) - the local increase in the thickness of the intima-media complex (IMT) >1.5 mm.

RESULTS

Carotid ASP were observed more frequently in RA patients with low CVR than in the control group (17% versus 8%; p=0.02). The frequency of ASP in RA patients with low CVR did not depend on the disease's stage or activity and ongoing therapy. In RA, the detection of subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with traditional risk factors: carotid ASP were detected 4 times more often in men than in women (48% versus 12%, p<0.01); carotid IMT correlated with age (R=0.46), body mass index (R=0.17), LDL-C level (R=0.20), systolic blood pressure (R=0.17); p<0.05 in all cases. According to a multivariate model, in RA, the risk of developing ASP increased in the presence of dyslipidemia (odds ratio - OR 2.97; 95% confidence interval - CI 1.36-6.49; p=0.006) and arterial hypertension (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.03-4.54; p=0.04). In RA patients with carotid ASP, sCD40L level was associated with carotid IMT (R=0.32; p=0.04) and cholesterol concentration (R=0.39; p=0.01).

CONCLUSION

Subclinical atherosclerotic lesions of the carotid arteries were observed in 24% of RA patients with low cardiovascular risk and were detected almost 2 times more often than in the control group. In RA patients with low CVR, the risk of developing carotid ASP increased by 2-3 times with concomitant hypertension and dyslipidemia. The carotid IMT was associated with traditional risk factors - age, gender, lipid levels and blood pressure indicators, in cases of detection of ASP - with an immunoinflammatory marker - sCD40L.

The possible relationship between the healthy eating index-2015 and the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide. This underlies the need to evaluate different targets, such as diet quality. In this regard, we conducted the present study to find whether the healthy eating index-2015 (HEI-2015) score is associated with a 10-year risk of CVDs based on Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and QRISK3 in different body mass index (BMI) groups.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed based on Shiraz University of Medical Sciences Employees Health Cohort Study (SUMS EHCS) data in April 2020. A total of 764 participants met the inclusion criteria. An expert performed demographic, anthropometric, and dietary evaluations. A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was applied to assess the diet quality, and FRS and QRISK3 were used to evaluate the 10-year risk of CVDs.

RESULTS

Based on the results, many components of HEI-2015 indicated an increasing trend through quartiles (p < 0.001). However, the consumption of refined grains in higher quartiles showed a decreasing trend (p < 0.001). The consumption of added sugar and saturated fatty acids (SFAs) in higher quartiles revealed an increasing trend (p < 0.001). In addition, lower HEI-2015 scores and lower whole grain consumption were significantly associated with higher BMI (p < 0.05). Also, lower consumption of fruits showed a significant relationship with higher risk scores of Framingham and QRISK3 (p < 0.05). Higher added sugar and SFAs intake was significantly related to lower FRS (p < 0.05). A significant reverse association between HEI-2015 and QRISK3 and Framingham risk scores was seen (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our findings support dietary recommendations to increase fruit and whole grains intake to prevent CVD and obesity. Moreover, a significant inverse association between HEI-2015 and QRISK3 and Framingham risk scores was observed. Since the results for added sugars and SFA intakes were controversial, further studies are needed.

Machine Learning and the Conundrum of Stroke Risk Prediction

Stroke is a leading cause of death worldwide. With escalating healthcare costs, early non-invasive stroke risk stratification is vital. The current paradigm of stroke risk assessment and mitigation is focused on clinical risk factors and comorbidities. Standard algorithms predict risk using regression-based statistical associations, which, while useful and easy to use, have moderate predictive accuracy. This review summarises recent efforts to deploy machine learning (ML) to predict stroke risk and enrich the understanding of the mechanisms underlying stroke. The surveyed body of literature includes studies comparing ML algorithms with conventional statistical models for predicting cardiovascular disease and, in particular, different stroke subtypes. Another avenue of research explored is ML as a means of enriching multiscale computational modelling, which holds great promise for revealing thrombogenesis mechanisms. Overall, ML offers a new approach to stroke risk stratification that accounts for subtle physiologic variants between patients, potentially leading to more reliable and personalised predictions than standard regression-based statistical associations.

Subclinical Carotid Atherosclerosis in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis at Low Cardiovascular Risk

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the rate of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and clinical significance of immunoinflammatory markers in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at low cardiovascular risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 275 RA patients and a control group of 100 participants without autoimmune diseases. All study participants were at low cardiovascular risk, calculated by the QRISK3 scale (<20%), and free of cardiovascular disease. Ultrasound examination of carotid arteries was performed to measure cIMT and to detect atherosclerotic plaques (ASP) in carotid arteries. sIСАМ-1, sVСАМ, and sCD40L levels were determined by enzyme immunoassay.

RESULTS

Carotid ASP was observed more frequently in RA patients (27%) than in the control group (17%), p = 0.03. The frequency of ASP in RA patients did not depend on the disease's stage or activity. There was a significant correlation between cIMT and age, cardiovascular risk determined by QRISK3, level of total cholesterol, LDL, and blood pressure in RA patients, p < 0.05 in all cases. No correlation between cIMT and blood levels of sCD40L, sVCAM, and sICAM was found. In RA patients, a higher concentration of sVCAM was detected in the carotid ASP group compared to the non-atherosclerotic group. sCD40L was associated with cIMT and total cholesterol in the ASP group and with total cholesterol and blood pressure in non-atherosclerotic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical atherosclerotic lesions of the carotid arteries were observed significantly more frequently in RA patients with low cardiovascular risk than in the control group. The results of the study demonstrate the association between cIMT, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and immunoinflammatory markers in RA patients.

Economics of Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare: Diagnosis vs. Treatment

Motivation: The price of medical treatment continues to rise due to (i) an increasing population; (ii) an aging human growth; (iii) disease prevalence; (iv) a rise in the frequency of patients that utilize health care services; and (v) increase in the price. Objective: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already well-known for its superiority in various healthcare applications, including the segmentation of lesions in images, speech recognition, smartphone personal assistants, navigation, ride-sharing apps, and many more. Our study is based on two hypotheses: (i) AI offers more economic solutions compared to conventional methods; (ii) AI treatment offers stronger economics compared to AI diagnosis. This novel study aims to evaluate AI technology in the context of healthcare costs, namely in the areas of diagnosis and treatment, and then compare it to the traditional or non-AI-based approaches. Methodology: PRISMA was used to select the best 200 studies for AI in healthcare with a primary focus on cost reduction, especially towards diagnosis and treatment. We defined the diagnosis and treatment architectures, investigated their characteristics, and categorized the roles that AI plays in the diagnostic and therapeutic paradigms. We experimented with various combinations of different assumptions by integrating AI and then comparing it against conventional costs. Lastly, we dwell on three powerful future concepts of AI, namely, pruning, bias, explainability, and regulatory approvals of AI systems. Conclusions: The model shows tremendous cost savings using AI tools in diagnosis and treatment. The economics of AI can be improved by incorporating pruning, reduction in AI bias, explainability, and regulatory approvals.

Cardiovascular/Stroke Risk Stratification in Diabetic Foot Infection Patients Using Deep Learning-Based Artificial Intelligence: An Investigative Study

A diabetic foot infection (DFI) is among the most serious, incurable, and costly to treat conditions. The presence of a DFI renders machine learning (ML) systems extremely nonlinear, posing difficulties in CVD/stroke risk stratification. In addition, there is a limited number of well-explained ML paradigms due to comorbidity, sample size limits, and weak scientific and clinical validation methodologies. Deep neural networks (DNN) are potent machines for learning that generalize nonlinear situations. The objective of this article is to propose a novel investigation of deep learning (DL) solutions for predicting CVD/stroke risk in DFI patients. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) search strategy was used for the selection of 207 studies. We hypothesize that a DFI is responsible for increased morbidity and mortality due to the worsening of atherosclerotic disease and affecting coronary artery disease (CAD). Since surrogate biomarkers for CAD, such as carotid artery disease, can be used for monitoring CVD, we can thus use a DL-based model, namely, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for CVD/stroke risk prediction in DFI patients, which combines covariates such as office and laboratory-based biomarkers, carotid ultrasound image phenotype (CUSIP) lesions, along with the DFI severity. We confirmed the viability of CVD/stroke risk stratification in the DFI patients. Strong designs were found in the research of the DL architectures for CVD/stroke risk stratification. Finally, we analyzed the AI bias and proposed strategies for the early diagnosis of CVD/stroke in DFI patients. Since DFI patients have an aggressive atherosclerotic disease, leading to prominent CVD/stroke risk, we, therefore, conclude that the DL paradigm is very effective for predicting the risk of CVD/stroke in DFI patients.

Deep learning artificial intelligence framework for multiclass coronary artery disease prediction using combination of conventional risk factors, carotid ultrasound, and intraplaque neovascularization

OBJECTIVE

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major healthcare challenge and therefore early risk assessment is vital. Previous assessment techniques use either "conventional CVD risk calculators (CCVRC)" or machine learning (ML) paradigms. These techniques are ad-hoc, unreliable, not fully automated, and have variabilities. We, therefore, introduce AtheroEdge-MCDLAI (AE3.0DL) windows-based platform using multiclass Deep Learning (DL) system.

METHODS

Data was collected on 500 patients having both carotid ultrasound and corresponding coronary angiography scores (CAS), measured as stenosis in coronary arteries and considered as the gold standard. A total of 39 covariates were used, clubbed into three clusters, namely (i) Office-based: age, gender, body mass index, smoker, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure; (ii) Laboratory-based: Hyperlipidemia, hemoglobin A1c, and estimated glomerular filtration rate; and (iii) Carotid ultrasound image phenotypes: maximum plaque height, total plaque area, and intra-plaque neovascularization. Baseline characteristics for four classes (target labels) having significant (p < 0.0001) values were calculated using Chi-square and ANOVA. For handling the cohort's imbalance in the risk classes, AE3.0DL used the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). AE3.0DL used Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) DL models and the performance (accuracy and area-under-the-curve) was computed using 10-fold cross-validation (90% training, 10% testing) frameworks. AE3.0DL was validated and benchmarked.

RESULTS

The AE3.0DL using RNN and LSTM showed an accuracy and AUC (p < 0.0001) pairs as (95.00% and 0.98), and (95.34% and 0.99), respectively, and showed an improvement of 32.93% and 9.94% against CCVRC and ML, respectively. AE3.0DL runs in <1 s.

CONCLUSION

DL algorithms are a powerful paradigm for coronary artery disease (CAD) risk prediction and CVD risk stratification.

Deep Learning Paradigm for Cardiovascular Disease/Stroke Risk Stratification in Parkinson’s Disease Affected by COVID-19: A Narrative Review

Background and Motivation: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is one of the most serious, non-curable, and expensive to treat. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown to be able to predict cardiovascular/stroke risk in PD patients. The presence of COVID-19 causes the ML systems to become severely non-linear and poses challenges in cardiovascular/stroke risk stratification. Further, due to comorbidity, sample size constraints, and poor scientific and clinical validation techniques, there have been no well-explained ML paradigms. Deep neural networks are powerful learning machines that generalize non-linear conditions. This study presents a novel investigation of deep learning (DL) solutions for CVD/stroke risk prediction in PD patients affected by the COVID-19 framework. Method: The PRISMA search strategy was used for the selection of 292 studies closely associated with the effect of PD on CVD risk in the COVID-19 framework. We study the hypothesis that PD in the presence of COVID-19 can cause more harm to the heart and brain than in non-COVID-19 conditions. COVID-19 lung damage severity can be used as a covariate during DL training model designs. We, therefore, propose a DL model for the estimation of, (i) COVID-19 lesions in computed tomography (CT) scans and (ii) combining the covariates of PD, COVID-19 lesions, office and laboratory arterial atherosclerotic image-based biomarkers, and medicine usage for the PD patients for the design of DL point-based models for CVD/stroke risk stratification. Results: We validated the feasibility of CVD/stroke risk stratification in PD patients in the presence of a COVID-19 environment and this was also verified. DL architectures like long short-term memory (LSTM), and recurrent neural network (RNN) were studied for CVD/stroke risk stratification showing powerful designs. Lastly, we examined the artificial intelligence bias and provided recommendations for early detection of CVD/stroke in PD patients in the presence of COVID-19. Conclusion: The DL is a very powerful tool for predicting CVD/stroke risk in PD patients affected by COVID-19.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Diabetic Retinopathy via Atherosclerotic Pathway in COVID-19/non-COVID-19 Frameworks using Artificial Intelligence Paradigm: A Narrative Review

Diabetes is one of the main causes of the rising cases of blindness in adults. This microvascular complication of diabetes is termed diabetic retinopathy (DR) and is associated with an expanding risk of cardiovascular events in diabetes patients. DR, in its various forms, is seen to be a powerful indicator of atherosclerosis. Further, the macrovascular complication of diabetes leads to coronary artery disease (CAD). Thus, the timely identification of cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications in DR patients is of utmost importance. Since CAD risk assessment is expensive for low-income countries, it is important to look for surrogate biomarkers for risk stratification of CVD in DR patients. Due to the common genetic makeup between the coronary and carotid arteries, low-cost, high-resolution imaging such as carotid B-mode ultrasound (US) can be used for arterial tissue characterization and risk stratification in DR patients. The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has facilitated the handling of large cohorts in a big data framework to identify atherosclerotic plaque features in arterial ultrasound. This enables timely CVD risk assessment and risk stratification of patients with DR. Thus, this review focuses on understanding the pathophysiology of DR, retinal and CAD imaging, the role of surrogate markers for CVD, and finally, the CVD risk stratification of DR patients. The review shows a step-by-step cyclic activity of how diabetes and atherosclerotic disease cause DR, leading to the worsening of CVD. We propose a solution to how AI can help in the identification of CVD risk. Lastly, we analyze the role of DR/CVD in the COVID-19 framework.

Cardiovascular/Stroke Risk Stratification in Parkinson's Disease Patients Using Atherosclerosis Pathway and Artificial Intelligence Paradigm: A Systematic Review

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a severe, incurable, and costly condition leading to heart failure. The link between PD and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not available, leading to controversies and poor prognosis. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has already shown promise for CVD/stroke risk stratification. However, due to a lack of sample size, comorbidity, insufficient validation, clinical examination, and a lack of big data configuration, there have been no well-explained bias-free AI investigations to establish the CVD/Stroke risk stratification in the PD framework. The study has two objectives: (i) to establish a solid link between PD and CVD/stroke; and (ii) to use the AI paradigm to examine a well-defined CVD/stroke risk stratification in the PD framework. The PRISMA search strategy selected 223 studies for CVD/stroke risk, of which 54 and 44 studies were related to the link between PD-CVD, and PD-stroke, respectively, 59 studies for joint PD-CVD-Stroke framework, and 66 studies were only for the early PD diagnosis without CVD/stroke link. Sequential biological links were used for establishing the hypothesis. For AI design, PD risk factors as covariates along with CVD/stroke as the gold standard were used for predicting the CVD/stroke risk. The most fundamental cause of CVD/stroke damage due to PD is cardiac autonomic dysfunction due to neurodegeneration that leads to heart failure and its edema, and this validated our hypothesis. Finally, we present the novel AI solutions for CVD/stroke risk prediction in the PD framework. The study also recommends strategies for removing the bias in AI for CVD/stroke risk prediction using the PD framework.

A machine learning framework for risk prediction of multi-label cardiovascular events based on focused carotid plaque B-Mode ultrasound: A Canadian study

MOTIVATION

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can provide better cardiovascular event (CVE) prediction. However, ML algorithms are mostly explored for predicting a single CVE at a time. The objective of this study is to design and develop an ML-based system to predict multi-label CVEs, such as (i) coronary artery disease, (ii) acute coronary syndrome, and (iii) a composite CVE-a class of AtheroEdge 3.0 (ML) system.

METHODS

Focused carotid B-mode ultrasound and coronary angiography are performed on a group of 459 participants consisting of three cardiovascular labels. Initially, 23 risk predictors comprising (i) patients' demographics, (ii) clinical blood-biomarkers, and (iii) carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes are collected. Six types of classification techniques comprising (a) four problem transformation methods (PTM) and (b) two algorithm adaptation methods (AAM) are used for multi-label CVE prediction. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated for accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and area-under-the-curve (AUC) using 10-fold cross-validation. The proposed system is also verified using another database of 522 participants.

RESULTS

For the primary database, PTM demonstrated a better multi-label CVE prediction than AAM (mean accuracy: 80.89% vs. 62.83%, mean AUC: 0.89 vs. 0.63), validating our hypothesis. The PTM-based binary relevance (BR) technique provided optimal performance in multi-label CVE prediction. The overall multi-label classification accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and AUC using BR are 81.2 ± 3.01%, 76.5 ± 8.8%, 83.8 ± 3.8%, 75.37 ± 5.8%, and 0.89 ± 0.02 (p < 0.0001), respectively. When used on the second Canadian database with seven cardiovascular events (acute coronary syndrome, myocardial infarction, angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, heart failure, and death), the proposed system showed an accuracy of 96.36 ± 0.87% (AUC: 0.61 ± 0.06, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

ML-based multi-label classification algorithms, such as binary relevance, yielded the best predictions for three cardiovascular endpoints.

Assessment of QRISK3 as a predictor of cardiovascular disease events in type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in diabetes mellitus (DM) patients is two- to three-fold higher than in the general population. We designed a 10-year cohort trial in T2DM patients to explore the performance of QRESEARCH risk estimator version 3 (QRISK3) as a CVD risk assessment tool and compared to Framingham Risk Score (FRS).

METHOD

This is a single-center analysis of prospective data collected from 566 newly-diagnosed patients with type 2 DM (T2DM). The risk scores were compared to CVD development in patients with and without CVD. The risk variables of CVD were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate cox regression analysis. The number of patients classified as low risk (<10%), intermediate risk (10%-20%), and high risk (>20%) for two tools were identified and compared, as well as their sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and consistency (C) statistics analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 566 individuals identified in our cohort, there were 138 (24.4%) CVD episodes. QRISK3 classified most CVD patients as high risk, with 91 (65.9%) patients. QRISK3 had a high sensitivity of 91.3% on a 10% cut-off dichotomy, but a higher specificity of 90.7% on a 20% cut-off dichotomy. With a 10% cut-off dichotomy, FRS had a higher specificity of 89.1%, but a higher sensitivity of 80.1% on a 20% cut-off dichotomy. Regardless of the cut-off dichotomy approach, the C-statistics of QRISK3 were higher than those of FRS.

CONCLUSION

QRISK3 comprehensively and accurately predicted the risk of CVD events in T2DM patients, superior to FRS. In the future, we need to conduct a large-scale T2DM cohort study to verify further the ability of QRISK3 to predict CVD events.

A Review on Joint Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Plaque Area Measurement in Ultrasound for Cardiovascular/Stroke Risk Monitoring: Artificial Intelligence Framework

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the top ten leading causes of death worldwide. Atherosclerosis disease in the arteries is the main cause of the CVD, leading to myocardial infarction and stroke. The two primary image-based phenotypes used for monitoring the atherosclerosis burden is carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque area (PA). Earlier segmentation and measurement methods were based on ad hoc conventional and semi-automated digital imaging solutions, which are unreliable, tedious, slow, and not robust. This study reviews the modern and automated methods such as artificial intelligence (AI)-based. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) can provide automated techniques in the detection and measurement of cIMT and PA from carotid vascular images. Both ML and DL techniques are examples of supervised learning, i.e., learn from "ground truth" images and transformation of test images that are not part of the training. This review summarizes (1) the evolution and impact of the fast-changing AI technology on cIMT/PA measurement, (2) the mathematical representations of ML/DL methods, and (3) segmentation approaches for cIMT/PA regions in carotid scans based for (a) region-of-interest detection and (b) lumen-intima and media-adventitia interface detection using ML/DL frameworks. AI-based methods for cIMT/PA segmentation have emerged for CVD/stroke risk monitoring and may expand to the recommended parameters for atherosclerosis assessment by carotid ultrasound.

Bidirectional link between diabetes mellitus and coronavirus disease 2019 leading to cardiovascular disease: A narrative review

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic where several comorbidities have been shown to have a significant effect on mortality. Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have a higher mortality rate than non-DM patients if they get COVID-19. Recent studies have indicated that patients with a history of diabetes can increase the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Additionally, patients without any history of diabetes can acquire new-onset DM when infected with COVID-19. Thus, there is a need to explore the bidirectional link between these two conditions, confirming the vicious loop between "DM/COVID-19". This narrative review presents (1) the bidirectional association between the DM and COVID-19, (2) the manifestations of the DM/COVID-19 loop leading to cardiovascular disease, (3) an understanding of primary and secondary factors that influence mortality due to the DM/COVID-19 loop, (4) the role of vitamin-D in DM patients during COVID-19, and finally, (5) the monitoring tools for tracking atherosclerosis burden in DM patients during COVID-19 and "COVID-triggered DM" patients. We conclude that the bidirectional nature of DM/COVID-19 causes acceleration towards cardiovascular events. Due to this alarming condition, early monitoring of atherosclerotic burden is required in "Diabetes patients during COVID-19" or "new-onset Diabetes triggered by COVID-19 in Non-Diabetes patients".

Artificial intelligence framework for predictive cardiovascular and stroke risk assessment models: A narrative review of integrated approaches using carotid ultrasound

RECENT FINDINGS

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and poses challenges for healthcare providers globally. Risk-based approaches for the management of CVD are becoming popular for recommending treatment plans for asymptomatic individuals. Several conventional predictive CVD risk models based do not provide an accurate CVD risk assessment for patients with different baseline risk profiles. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have changed the landscape of CVD risk assessment and demonstrated a better performance when compared against conventional models, mainly due to its ability to handle the input nonlinear variations. Further, it has the flexibility to add risk factors derived from medical imaging modalities that image the morphology of the plaque. The integration of noninvasive carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes with conventional risk factors in the AI framework has further provided stronger power for CVD risk prediction, so-called "integrated predictive CVD risk models."

PURPOSE

of the review: The objective of this review is (i) to understand several aspects in the development of predictive CVD risk models, (ii) to explore current conventional predictive risk models and their successes and challenges, and (iii) to refine the search for predictive CVD risk models using noninvasive carotid ultrasound as an exemplar in the artificial intelligence-based framework.

CONCLUSION

Conventional predictive CVD risk models are suboptimal and could be improved. This review examines the potential to include more noninvasive image-based phenotypes in the CVD risk assessment using powerful AI-based strategies.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using carotid ultrasound B-mode imaging

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic chronic inflammatory disease that affects synovial joints and has various extra-articular manifestations, including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). Patients with RA experience a higher risk of CVD, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Inflammation is a common phenomenon in RA and CVD. The pathophysiological association between these diseases is still not clear, and, thus, the risk assessment and detection of CVD in such patients is of clinical importance. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) has gained prominence in advancing healthcare and, therefore, may further help to investigate the RA-CVD association. There are three aims of this review: (1) to summarize the three pathophysiological pathways that link RA to CVD; (2) to identify several traditional and carotid ultrasound image-based CVD risk calculators useful for RA patients, and (3) to understand the role of artificial intelligence in CVD risk assessment in RA patients. Our search strategy involves extensively searches in PubMed and Web of Science databases using search terms associated with CVD risk assessment in RA patients. A total of 120 peer-reviewed articles were screened for this review. We conclude that (a) two of the three pathways directly affect the atherosclerotic process, leading to heart injury, (b) carotid ultrasound image-based calculators have shown superior performance compared with conventional calculators, and (c) AI-based technologies in CVD risk assessment in RA patients are aggressively being adapted for routine practice of RA patients.

Cardiovascular/stroke risk predictive calculators: a comparison between statistical and machine learning models

Background

Statistically derived cardiovascular risk calculators (CVRC) that use conventional risk factors, generally underestimate or overestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke events primarily due to lack of integration of plaque burden. This study investigates the role of machine learning (ML)-based CVD/stroke risk calculators (CVRC_ML) and compares against statistically derived CVRC (CVRC_Stat) based on (I) conventional factors or (II) combined conventional with plaque burden (integrated factors).

Methods

The proposed study is divided into 3 parts: (I) statistical calculator: initially, the 10-year CVD/stroke risk was computed using 13 types of CVRC_Stat (without and with plaque burden) and binary risk stratification of the patients was performed using the predefined thresholds and risk classes; (II) ML calculator: using the same risk factors (without and with plaque burden), as adopted in 13 different CVRC_Stat, the patients were again risk-stratified using CVRC_ML based on support vector machine (SVM) and finally; (III) both types of calculators were evaluated using AUC based on ROC analysis, which was computed using combination of predicted class and endpoint equivalent to CVD/stroke events.

Results

An Institutional Review Board approved 202 patients (156 males and 46 females) of Japanese ethnicity were recruited for this study with a mean age of 69±11 years. The AUC for 13 different types of CVRC_Stat calculators were: AECRS2.0 (AUC 0.83, P<0.001), QRISK3 (AUC 0.72, P<0.001), WHO (AUC 0.70, P<0.001), ASCVD (AUC 0.67, P<0.001), FRS_cardio (AUC 0.67, P<0.01), FRS_stroke (AUC 0.64, P<0.001), MSRC (AUC 0.63, P=0.03), UKPDS56 (AUC 0.63, P<0.001), NIPPON (AUC 0.63, P<0.001), PROCAM (AUC 0.59, P<0.001), RRS (AUC 0.57, P<0.001), UKPDS60 (AUC 0.53, P<0.001), and SCORE (AUC 0.45, P<0.001), while the AUC for the CVRC_ML with integrated risk factors (AUC 0.88, P<0.001), a 42% increase in performance. The overall risk-stratification accuracy for the CVRC_ML with integrated risk factors was 92.52% which was higher compared all the other CVRC_Stat.

Conclusions

ML-based CVD/stroke risk calculator provided a higher predictive ability of 10-year CVD/stroke compared to the 13 different types of statistically derived risk calculators including integrated model AECRS 2.0.

Ultrasound-based stroke/cardiovascular risk stratification using Framingham Risk Score and ASCVD Risk Score based on "Integrated Vascular Age" instead of "Chronological Age": a multi-ethnic study of Asian Indian, Caucasian, and Japanese cohorts

Background

Vascular age (VA) has recently emerged for CVD risk assessment and can either be computed using conventional risk factors (CRF) or by using carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) derived from carotid ultrasound (CUS). This study investigates a novel method of integrating both CRF and cIMT for estimating VA [so-called integrated VA (IVA)]. Further, the study analyzes and compares CVD/stroke risk using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS)-based risk calculator when adapting IVA against VA.

Methods

The system follows a four-step process: (I) VA using cIMT based using linear-regression (LR) model and its coefficients; (II) VA prediction using ten CRF using a multivariate linear regression (MLR)-based model with gender adjustment; (III) coefficients from the LR-based model and MLR-based model are combined using a linear model to predict the final IVA; (IV) the final step consists of FRS-based risk stratification with IVA as inputs and benchmarked against FRS using conventional method of CA. Area-under-the-curve (AUC) is computed using IVA and benchmarked against CA while taking the response variable as a standardized combination of cIMT and glycated hemoglobin.

Results

The study recruited 648 patients, 202 were Japanese, 314 were Asian Indian, and 132 were Caucasians. Both left and right common carotid arteries (CCA) of all the population were scanned, thus a total of 1,287 ultrasound scans. The 10-year FRS using IVA reported higher AUC (AUC =0.78) compared with 10-year FRS using CA (AUC =0.66) by ~18%.

Conclusions

IVA is an efficient biomarker for risk stratifications for patients in routine practice.

Does the Carotid Bulb Offer a Better 10-Year CVD/Stroke Risk Assessment Compared to the Common Carotid Artery? A 1516 Ultrasound Scan Study

The objectives of this study are to (1) examine the "10-year cardiovascular risk" in the common carotid artery (CCA) versus carotid bulb using an integrated calculator called "AtheroEdge Composite Risk Score 2.0" (AECRS2.0) and (2) evaluate the performance of AECRS2.0 against "conventional cardiovascular risk calculators." These objectives are met by measuring (1) image-based phenotypes and AECRS2.0 score computation and (2) performance evaluation of AECRS2.0 against 12 conventional cardiovascular risk calculators. The Asian-Indian cohort (n = 379) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), or hypertension were retrospectively analyzed by acquiring the 1516 carotid ultrasound scans (mean age: 55 ± 10.1 years, 67% males, ∼92% with T2DM, ∼83% with CKD [stage 1-5], and 87.5% with hypertension [stage 1-2]). The carotid bulb showed a higher 10-year cardiovascular risk compared to the CCA by 18% (P < .0001). Patients with T2DM and/or CKD also followed a similar trend. The carotid bulb demonstrated a superior risk assessment compared to CCA in patients with T2DM and/or CKD by showing: (1) ∼13% better than CCA (0.93 vs 0.82, P = .0001) and (2) ∼29% better compared with 12 types of risk conventional calculators (0.93 vs 0.72, P = .06).

Cardiovascular/stroke risk prevention: A new machine learning framework integrating carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes and its harmonics with conventional risk factors

MOTIVATION

Machine learning (ML)-based stroke risk stratification systems have typically focused on conventional risk factors (CRF) (AtheroRisk-conventional). Besides CRF, carotid ultrasound image phenotypes (CUSIP) have shown to be powerful phenotypes risk stratification. This is the first ML study of its kind that integrates CUSIP and CRF for risk stratification (AtheroRisk-integrated) and compares against AtheroRisk-conventional.

METHODS

Two types of ML-based setups called (i) AtheroRisk-integrated and (ii) AtheroRisk-conventional were developed using random forest (RF) classifiers. AtheroRisk-conventional uses a feature set of 13 CRF such as age, gender, hemoglobin A1c, fasting blood sugar, low-density lipoprotein, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, total cholesterol (TC), a ratio of TC and HDL, hypertension, smoking, family history, triglyceride, and ultrasound-based carotid plaque score. AtheroRisk-integrated system uses the feature set of 38 features with a combination of 13 CRF and 25 CUSIP features (6 types of current CUSIP, 6 types of 10-year CUSIP, 12 types of quadratic CUSIP (harmonics), and age-adjusted grayscale median). Logistic regression approach was used to select the significant features on which the RF classifier was trained. The performance of both ML systems was evaluated by area-under-the-curve (AUC) statistics computed using a leave-one-out cross-validation protocol.

RESULTS

Left and right common carotid arteries of 202 Japanese patients were retrospectively examined to obtain 404 ultrasound scans. RF classifier showed higher improvement in AUC (~57%) for leave-one-out cross-validation protocol. Using RF classifier, AUC statistics for AtheroRisk-integrated system was higher (AUC = 0.99,p-value<0.001) compared to AtheroRisk-conventional (AUC = 0.63,p-value<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The AtheroRisk-integrated ML system outperforms the AtheroRisk-conventional ML system using RF classifier.

Two-stage artificial intelligence model for jointly measurement of atherosclerotic wall thickness and plaque burden in carotid ultrasound: A screening tool for cardiovascular/stroke risk assessment

MOTIVATION

The early screening of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can lead to effective treatment. Thus, accurate and reliable atherosclerotic carotid wall detection and plaque measurements are crucial. Current measurement methods are time-consuming and do not utilize the power of knowledge-based paradigms such as artificial intelligence (AI). We present an AI-based methodology for the joint automated detection and measurement of wall thickness and carotid plaque (CP) in the form of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and total plaque area (TPA), a class of AtheroEdge™ system (AtheroPoint™, CA, USA).

METHOD

The novel system consists of two stages, and each stage comprises an independent deep learning (DL) model. In Stage I, the first DL model segregates the common carotid artery (CCA) patches from ultrasound (US) images into the rectangular wall and non-wall patches. The characterized wall patches are integrated to form the region of interest (ROI), which is then fed into Stage II. In Stage II, the second DL model segments the far wall region. Lumen-intima (LI) and media-adventitial (MA) boundaries are then extracted from the wall region, which is then used for cIMT and PA measurement.

RESULTS

Using the database of 250 carotid scans, the cIMT error using the AI model is 0.0935±0.0637 mm, which is lower than those of all previous methods. The PA error is found to be 2.7939±2.3702 mm². The system's correlation coefficient (CC) between AI and ground truth (GT) values for cIMT is 0.99 (p < 0.0001), which is higher compared with the CC of 0.96 (p < 0.0001) shown by the earlier DL method. The CC for PA between AI and GT values is 0.89 (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

A novel AI-based strategy was applied to carotid US images for the joint detection of carotid wall thickness (cWT) and plaque area (PA), followed by cIMT and PA measurement. This AI-based strategy shows improved performance using the patch technique compared with previous methods using full carotid scans.

Integration of estimated glomerular filtration rate biomarker in image-based cardiovascular disease/stroke risk calculator: a south Asian-Indian diabetes cohort with moderate chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Recently, a 10-year image-based integrated calculator (called AtheroEdge Composite Risk Score-AECRS1.0) was developed which combines conventional cardiovascular risk factors (CCVRF) with image phenotypes derived from carotid ultrasound (CUS). Such calculators did not include chronic kidney disease (CKD)-based biomarker called estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The novelty of this study is to design and develop an advanced integrated version called-AECRS2.0 that combines eGFR with image phenotypes to compute the composite risk score. Furthermore, AECRS2.0 was benchmarked against QRISK3 which considers eGFR for risk assessment.

METHODS

The method consists of three major steps: 1) five, current CUS image phenotypes (CUSIP) measurements using AtheroEdge system (AtheroPoint, CA, USA) consisting of: average carotid intima-media thickness (cIMTave), maximum cIMT (cIMTmax), minimum cIMT (cIMTmin), variability in cIMT (cIMTV), and total plaque area (TPA); 2) five, 10-year CUSIP measurements by combining these current five CUSIP with 11 CCVRF (age, ethnicity, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, carotid artery type, hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and eGFR); 3) AECRS2.0 risk score computation and its comparison to QRISK3 using area-under-the-curve (AUC).

RESULTS

South Asian-Indian 339 patients were retrospectively analyzed by acquiring their left/right common carotid arteries (678 CUS, mean age: 54.25±9.84 years; 75.22% males; 93.51% diabetic with HbA1c ≥6.5%; and mean eGFR 73.84±20.91 mL/min/1.73m²). The proposed AECRS2.0 reported higher AUC (AUC=0.89, P<0.001) compared to QRISK3 (AUC=0.51, P<0.001) by ~74% in CKD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

An integrated calculator AECRS2.0 can be used to assess the 10-year CVD/stroke risk in patients suffering from CKD. AECRS2.0 was much superior to QRISK3.

Morphological Carotid Plaque Area Is Associated With Glomerular Filtration Rate: A Study of South Asian Indian Patients With Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease

We evaluated the association between automatically measured carotid total plaque area (TPA) and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a biomarker of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Automated average carotid intima-media thickness (cIMTave) and TPA measurements in carotid ultrasound (CUS) were performed using AtheroEdge (AtheroPoint). Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) was then computed between the TPA and eGFR for (1) males versus females, (2) diabetic versus nondiabetic patients, and (3) between the left and right carotid artery. Overall, 339 South Asian Indian patients with either type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or CKD, or hypertension (stage 1 or stage 2) were retrospectively analyzed by acquiring cIMTave and TPA measurements of their left and right common carotid arteries (CCA; total CUS: 678, mean age: 54.2 ± 9.8 years; 75.2% males; 93.5% with T2DM). The CC between TPA and eGFR for different scenarios were (1) for males and females -0.25 (P < .001) and -0.35 (P < .001), respectively; (2) for T2DM and non-T2DM -0.26 (P < .001) and -0.49 (P = .02), respectively, and (3) for left and right CCA -0.25 (P < .001) and -0.23 (P < .001), respectively. Automated TPA is an equally reliable biomarker compared with cIMTave for patients with CKD (with or without T2DM) with subclinical atherosclerosis.

Global perspective on carotid intima-media thickness and plaque: should the current measurement guidelines be revisited?

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque (CP) currently act as risk predictors for CVD/Stroke risk assessment. Over 2000 articles have been published that cover either use cIMT/CP or alterations of cIMT/CP and additional image-based phenotypes to associate cIMT related markers with CVD/Stroke risk. These articles have shown variable results, which likely reflect a lack of standardization in the tools for measurement, risk stratification, and risk assessment. Guidelines for cIMT/CP measurement are influenced by major factors like the atherosclerosis disease itself, conventional risk factors, 10-year measurement tools, types of CVD/Stroke risk calculators, incomplete validation of measurement tools, and the fast pace of computer technology advancements. This review discusses the following major points: 1) the American Society of Echocardiography and Mannheim guidelines for cIMT/CP measurements; 2) forces that influence the guidelines; and 3) calculators for risk stratification and assessment under the influence of advanced intelligence methods. The review also presents the knowledge-based learning strategies such as machine and deep learning which may play a future role in CVD/stroke risk assessment. We conclude that both machine learning and non-machine learning strategies will flourish for current and 10-year CVD/Stroke risk prediction as long as they integrate image-based phenotypes with conventional risk factors.

A low-cost machine learning-based cardiovascular/stroke risk assessment system: integration of conventional factors with image phenotypes

Background

Most cardiovascular (CV)/stroke risk calculators using the integration of carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes (CUSIP) with conventional risk factors (CRF) have shown improved risk stratification compared with either method. However such approaches have not yet leveraged the potential of machine learning (ML). Most intelligent ML strategies use follow-ups for the endpoints but are costly and time-intensive. We introduce an integrated ML system using stenosis as an endpoint for training and determine whether such a system can lead to superior performance compared with the conventional ML system.

Methods

The ML-based algorithm consists of an offline and online system. The offline system extracts 47 features which comprised of 13 CRF and 34 CUSIP. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to select the most significant features. These offline features were then trained using the event-equivalent gold standard (consisting of percentage stenosis) using a random forest (RF) classifier framework to generate training coefficients. The online system then transforms the PCA-based test features using offline trained coefficients to predict the risk labels on test subjects. The above ML system determines the area under the curve (AUC) using a 10-fold cross-validation paradigm. The above system so-called "AtheroRisk-Integrated" was compared against "AtheroRisk-Conventional", where only 13 CRF were considered in a feature set.

Results

Left and right common carotid arteries of 202 Japanese patients (Toho University, Japan) were retrospectively examined to obtain 395 ultrasound scans. AtheroRisk-Integrated system [AUC =0.80, P<0.0001, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77 to 0.84] showed an improvement of ~18% against AtheroRisk-Conventional ML (AUC =0.68, P<0.0001, 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.72).

Conclusions

ML-based integrated model with the event-equivalent gold standard as percentage stenosis is powerful and offers low cost and high performance CV/stroke risk assessment.

A Special Report on Changing Trends in Preventive Stroke/Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Via B-Mode Ultrasonography

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke risk assessment have been largely based on the success of traditional statistically derived risk calculators such as Pooled Cohort Risk Score or Framingham Risk Score. However, over the last decade, automated computational paradigms such as machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have penetrated into a variety of medical domains including CVD/stroke risk assessment. This review is mainly focused on the changing trends in CVD/stroke risk assessment and its stratification from statistical-based models to ML-based paradigms using non-invasive carotid ultrasonography.

RECENT FINDINGS

In this review, ML-based strategies are categorized into two types: non-image (or conventional ML-based) and image-based (or integrated ML-based). The success of conventional (non-image-based) ML-based algorithms lies in the different data-driven patterns or features which are used to train the ML systems. Typically these features are the patients' demographics, serum biomarkers, and multiple clinical parameters. The integrated (image-based) ML-based algorithms integrate the features derived from the ultrasound scans of the arterial walls (such as morphological measurements) with conventional risk factors in ML frameworks. Even though the review covers ML-based system designs for carotid and coronary ultrasonography, the main focus of the review is on CVD/stroke risk scores based on carotid ultrasound. There are two key conclusions from this review: (i) fusion of image-based features with conventional cardiovascular risk factors can lead to more accurate CVD/stroke risk stratification; (ii) the ability to handle multiple sources of information in big data framework using artificial intelligence-based paradigms (such as ML and DL) is likely to be the future in preventive CVD/stroke risk assessment.