Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for congenital heart disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Survival and Risk Factors for Mortality in Infants With Congenital Heart Disease in South Korea

BACKGROUND/AIM

The survival of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) has dramatically improved over recent decades. However, a disparity exists depending on the country and medical system. This study aimed to analyze the survival of infants with CHD until the age of 18 years using large-scale population data in South Korea and investigate the effect of neonatal conditions at birth.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively extracted the Korean National Health Insurance Service claims data from January 2002 to December 2020. We included patients diagnosed with CHD who were less than one year of age. The follow-up duration was until their death or until they were censored before the age of 18 years. The CHD lesions were classified hierarchically (conotruncal, severe non-conotruncal, coarctation of the aorta, ventricular septal defect, atrial septal defect, and others). Several neonatal conditions were adopted as risk factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 127,958 infants had been diagnosed with CHD and 2,275 died before the age of 18 years. The survival rate of infants with CHD during childhood was 97.9%. The highest childhood mortality rate was associated with non-conotruncal defects (19.7%), followed by conotruncal defects (10.2%). The significant risk factors for childhood mortality were complex CHD, pulmonary hypertension, birth asphyxia, small for gestational age, respiratory distress, pulmonary hemorrhage, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and convulsions.

CONCLUSION

The survival of infants with CHD has been favorable in South Korea. Several neonatal conditions are risk factors for childhood mortality. Individualized risk assessment and optimal treatment strategies may help improve their survival rate.

Global trends in heart failure from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study

AIMS

This study aimed to analyse the global prevalence and disability trends of heart failure (HF) from 1990 to 2019, considering both sexes and country-specific economic strata.

METHODS

This study conducted a secondary analysis employing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis is stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. Through age-period-cohort and Joinpoint regression analyses, we investigated the temporal trends in HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) during this period.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the global prevalence of HF surged by 106.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 99.3% to 114.3%), reaching 56.2 million cases in 2019. While all-age prevalence and YLDs increased over the 30 year span, age-standardized rates decreased by 2019. Countries with higher SDI experienced a more pronounced percentage decrease compared with those with lower SDI. Longitudinal analysis revealed an overall improvement in both prevalence and YLDs for HF, albeit with notable disparities between SDI quintiles and sexes. Ischaemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease emerged as the most rapidly increasing and primarily contributing causes of HF, albeit with variations observed across different countries. The average annual percentage change for prevalence and YLDs over the period was -0.26% and -0.25%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers valuable insights into the global burden of HF, considering factors such as population aging, regional disparities, sex differences and aetiological variations. The findings hold significant implications for healthcare planning and resource allocation. Continued assessment of these trends and innovative strategies for HF prevention and management are crucial for addressing this pressing global health concern.

Association of Maternal Dietary Habits and Infant MTHFR Gene Polymorphisms with Ventricular Septal Defect in Offspring: A Case-Control Study

This study aimed to explore the association of maternal diet, infant MTHFR gene polymorphisms, and their interactions with the risk of ventricular septal defects (VSDs). This case-control study recruited 448 mothers of VSD children and 620 mothers of healthy counterparts. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were constructed to examine the association between maternal dietary habits during the first trimester of gestation, MTHFR gene polymorphisms, and VSD. Gene-environment interaction effects were analyzed through logistic regression models, with false discovery rate p-value (FDR_p) < 0.05. Maternal excessive intake of fermented bean curd (OR = 2.00, 95%CI: 1.59-2.52), corned foods (OR = 2.23, 1.76-2.84), fumatory foods (OR = 1.75, 1.37-2.23), grilled foods (OR = 1.34, 1.04-1.72), and fried foods (OR = 1.80, 1.42-2.27) was associated with an increased risk of VSD. Regular intake of fish and shrimp (OR = 0.42, 0.33-0.53), fresh eggs (OR = 0.58, 0.44-0.75), soy products (OR = 0.69, 0.56-0.85), and dairy products (OR = 0.71, 0.59-0.85) was found to reduce the occurrence of VSD. Moreover, MTHFR gene polymorphisms at rs2066470 (homozygous: OR = 4.28, 1.68-10.90), rs1801133 (homozygous: OR = 2.28, 1.39-3.74), and rs1801131 (heterozygous: OR = 1.75, 1.24-2.47; homozygous: OR = 3.45, 1.50-7.95) elevated offspring susceptibility to VSDs. Furthermore, significant interactions of MTHFR polymorphisms with maternal dietary habits were observed, encompassing corned foods, fermented bean curd, fried foods, and grilled foods. Maternal dietary habits; MTHFR polymorphisms at rs2066470, rs1801131, and rs1801133; and their interactions were significantly associated with the occurrence of VSDs in offspring.

Thrombocytopenia developed in intensive care unit for congenital heart disease: incidence, risk factors, and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Thrombocytopenia is common for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) and is associated with adverse outcomes. ICU thrombocytopenia in pediatric patients who underwent cardiac surgeries with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is inadequately studied.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors, and prognostic role of ICU thrombocytopenia after congenital cardiac surgeries with CPB.

METHODS

A retrospective study involving 11 761 patients was conducted. Patients were categorized into 4 groups of thrombocytopenia based on platelet counts tested during ICU: non (>150 × 109/L), mild (100-150 × 109/L), moderate (50-100 × 109/L), and severe (<50 × 109/L). Logistic and Cox regression analyses were utilized to explore the risk factors of thrombocytopenia and the association of ICU thrombocytopenia with 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

ICU thrombocytopenia was observed in 4007 patients (34.1%), with mild, moderate, and severe thrombocytopenia occurring in 2773 (23.6%), 987 (8.4%), and 247 (2.1%) patients, respectively. Younger age, cyanotic congenital heart disease, CPB duration, and preoperative laboratory findings (red blood cell, thrombocytopenia, red cell distribution width, hematocrit, and coagulation disorder) were identified as independent risk factors of ICU thrombocytopenia. Patients with moderate (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 11.38 [3.02-42.87]; P < .001) and severe thrombocytopenia (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 49.54 [13.11-187.14]; P < .001) had a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality. Furthermore, with the increase in the severity of ICU thrombocytopenia, there was an incremental increase in the incidence of postoperative critical bleeding and thrombosis, perioperative blood transfusions, length of ICU stays, and duration of mechanical ventilation.

CONCLUSION

ICU thrombocytopenia occurred in one-third of children after congenital cardiac surgery with CPB, and it was associated with multiple adverse outcomes.

Interaction between ozone and paternal smoking on fetal congenital heart defects among pregnant women at high risk: a multicenter maternal-fetal medicine study

BACKGROUND

Evidence remains limited on the association between maternal ozone (O3) exposure and congenital heart defects (CHDs) in offspring, and few studies have investigated the interaction and modification of paternal smoking on this association.

METHODS

Using a sample including pregnant women at high risk of fetal CHD (with metabolic disease, first-trimester viral infection, family history of CHD, etc.) from a maternal-fetal medicine study covering 1313 referral hospitals in China during 2013-2021, we examined the associations between maternal O3 exposure during 3-8 weeks of gestational age and fetal CHD in offspring and investigated the interaction and modification of paternal smoking on this association. CHD was diagnosed by fetal echocardiograms, maximum daily 8-hour average O3 exposure data at a 10 km × 10 km spatial resolution came from the Tracking Air Pollution in China dataset, and paternal smoking was collected using questionnaires. Logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 27,834 pregnant women at high risk of fetal CHD, 17.4% of fetuses were diagnosed with CHD. Each 10 μg/m3 increase in maternal O3 exposure was associated with a 17% increased risk of CHD in offspring (OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.14-1.20). Compared with paternal nonsmoking and maternal low O3 exposure, the ORs (95% CI) of CHD for smoking and low O3 exposure, nonsmoking and high O3 exposure, and smoking and high O3 exposure were 1.25 (1.08-1.45), 1.81 (1.56-2.08), and 2.23 (1.84-2.71), respectively. Paternal smoking cessation seemingly mitigated the increased risk of CHD.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal O3 exposure and paternal smoking were interactively associated with an increased risk of fetal CHD in offspring, which calls for effective measures to decrease maternal exposure to O3 pollution and secondhand smoke for CHD prevention.

Distinct time trends in colorectal cancer incidence in countries with SDI levels from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Introduction

The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) plays a pivotal role in the global cancer epidemic. Our study reported the incidence trends in CRC and the associated effects of age, period, and birth cohort in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years.

Methods

The incidence data of CRC were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We performed the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) in the incidence rate, the annual percentage change by age group (local drift), and the relative risk (period and cohort effects) of the period and cohort in CRC during 1990-2019. This approach allows examining and distinguishing age, period, and cohort effects in incidence and potentially distinguishing colorectal cancer gaps in prevention and screening.

Results

In 2019, the incidence of CRC was 2.17 (95% UI 2.00-2.34) million, of which China, the United States of America, and Japan had the highest incidence population, accounting for 45.9% of the global population. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 26.7 (95% UI 28.9-24.6) per 100,000 people, of which 30 countries had an incidence rate greater than 40.0 per 100,000 people. From 1990 to 2019, the middle SDI region had the largest increase in incidence rate, with a net drift of 2.33% (95% CI 2.2-2.46%, p < 0.001). Globally, the incidence population was concentrated in the age group of 50-69 years, and the age group of 30-34 years had the largest increase in incidence rate (local drift 1.19% (95% CI 1.01-1.37%)). At the same time, the sex and age distributions of CRC incidence had significant heterogeneity across regions and countries. In the past 30 years, the incidence rate in 31 countries has been well controlled (net drift <0), and most of them were concentrated in high-and high-middle-SDI regions, such as Australia, Czechia, and Belgium, and the relative risk of incidence generally improved over time and consecutive young birth cohorts. CRC incidence showed an unfavorable trend (net drift ≥1%) in 89 countries, of which 27 countries were more significant (net drift >2%), mostly concentrated in the middle SDI region, such as China, Mexico, and Brazil, and the risk of period and birth cohort was unfavorable.

Conclusion

Globally, the incidence of CRC has shown an overall upward trend over the past 30 years, with the exception of some countries with higher SDI values. Significant age-period-cohort differences were observed in the risk of incidence in CRC worldwide. Effective prevention and control policies need to take into account the age-period-cohort effect characteristics of different regions.

The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

AIMS

To increase the comprehensive understanding of trends in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study for the years 1990-2019, an age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to investigate trends in CVD-related mortality attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the periods with the most substantial changes. The results show that, the Western Pacific Region witnessed a substantial increase in CVD deaths attributable to low physical activity, accompanied by a rise in all-age CVD-related mortality. However, the age-standardized death rate was lower in the region than the global level, highlighting the importance of considering the age composition of CVD burden in the region. Countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI) levels exhibited lower mortality than those with lower SDI levels. The longitudinal analysis using the age-period-cohort model indicated an overall improvement in CVD-related mortality attributable to low physical activity in the region, but with differences between sexes and CVD subtypes. Specific period in which CVD-related mortality decreased significantly was 2011-16, for the average annual percentage change for the period was -0.69%.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the significance of addressing low physical activity as a modifiable risk factor for CVD burden in the Western Pacific Region. Further research is essential to understand the factors contributing to inter-country variations, sex disparities, and CVD subtypes distinctions.

Cost-utility analysis of prenatal diagnosis of congenital cardiac diseases using deep learning

BACKGROUND

Deep learning (DL) is a new technology that can assist prenatal ultrasound (US) in the detection of congenital heart disease (CHD) at the prenatal stage. Hence, an economic-epidemiologic evaluation (aka Cost-Utility Analysis) is required to assist policymakers in deciding whether to adopt the new technology.

METHODS

The incremental cost-utility ratios (CUR), of adding DL assisted ultrasound (DL-US) to the current provision of US plus pulse oximetry (POX), was calculated by building a spreadsheet model that integrated demographic, economic epidemiological, health service utilization, screening performance, survival and lifetime quality of life data based on the standard formula: CUR = Increase in Intervention Costs - Decrease in Treatment costs Averted QALY losses of adding DL to US & POX US screening data were based on real-world operational routine reports (as opposed to research studies). The DL screening cost of 145 USD was based on Israeli US costs plus 20.54 USD for reading and recording screens.

RESULTS

The addition of DL assisted US, which is associated with increased sensitivity (95% vs 58.1%), resulted in far fewer undiagnosed infants (16 vs 102 [or 2.9% vs 15.4%] of the 560 and 659 births, respectively). Adoption of DL-US will add 1,204 QALYs. with increased screening costs 22.5 million USD largely offset by decreased treatment costs (20.4 million USD). Therefore, the new DL-US technology is considered "very cost-effective", costing only 1,720 USD per QALY. For most performance combinations (sensitivity > 80%, specificity > 90%), the adoption of DL-US is either cost effective or very cost effective. For specificities greater than 98% (with sensitivities above 94%), DL-US (& POX) is said to "dominate" US (& POX) by providing more QALYs at a lower cost.

CONCLUSION

Our exploratory CUA calculations indicate the feasibility of DL-US as being at least cost-effective.

An examination from 1990 to 2019: investigating the burden of knee dislocation on a global scale

Background

The literature on the disease burden of knee dislocation is lacking. The aim of the study is to systematically assess the global burden, trends, causes, and influencing factors of knee dislocation.

Methods

The incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of knee dislocation were assessed globally, as well as at the regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019. Subsequent analyses focused on the age and gender distribution related to knee dislocation. An investigation into the main causes of knee dislocation followed. Finally, the Pearson correlation between age-standardized rates and social-demographic index (SDI) was calculated.

Results

Although the age-standardized incidence and YLDs rate of knee dislocation decreased over the past 30 years, the incidence and YLDs number increased. The disease burden remained higher in males compared to females. Males and females showed different patterns of incidence rates in each age group, but their YLDs rates were similar. Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of knee dislocation increased in the older population while declining in the younger population. Falls had consistently emerged as the most important cause for both incidence and YLD rates. Additionally, a positive correlation between SDI and the disease burden of knee dislocation was found.

Conclusion

The disease burden of knee dislocation remains heavy. It is essential to recognize the evolving epidemiology of knee dislocation. Utilizing data-driven assessments can assist in formulating public health policies and strategies to improve overall well-being.

Global, regional, and national incidence trends of depressive disorder, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Depressive disorder is a severe global public health problem. It is crucial to evaluate the global incidence trends of depressive disorder.

METHODS

The incidence data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Estimates were presented by global and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, and the age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the incidence trends.

RESULTS

APC analysis indicated a decline in depressive disorder incidence globally (net drift = -0.24%, 95%CI: -0.29, -0.18), except for an increase in SDI regions (net drift = 0.07, 95%CI:0, 0.14). In high SDI regions, depressive disorder incidence increased among the younger and declined among the elder population, whereas the opposite trend was observed in middle and low-middle SDI regions. The depressive disorder incidence increased significantly among people aged 15 to 24 years after adjusting for age effects, decreased since 2000 after adjusting for period effects and increased rapidly in the birth cohort after 1990 in high SDI by adjusting for cohort effects.

CONCLUSION

Globally, there was a declining trend of depressive disorder incidence in 1990-2019. Specifically, the incidence was declining globally in younger populations, while increasing in older populations. However, this trend differed depending on the SDI of the region.

Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for tuberculosis, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant global health concern, being the leading cause of mortality from a single infectious agent worldwide. The investigation of TB incidence and epidemiological trends is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies and identifying ongoing challenges.

OBJECTIVES

This study presents the trend in TB incidence across 204 countries and regions over a 30-year period.

METHODS

The study utilises data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The age cohort model and gender subgroup analysis were employed to estimate the net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (age annual percentage change), longitudinal age curve (expected age ratio), and cycle and cohort effect (relative risk of cycle and birth cohort) of TB incidence from 1990 to 2019. This approach facilitates the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in TB incidence trends, potentially identifying disparities in TB prevention across different countries.

RESULTS

Over the past three decades, a general downward trend in TB incidence has been observed in most countries. However, in 15 of the 204 countries, the overall incidence rate is still on the rise (net drift ≥0.0 %) or stagnant decline (≥-0.5 %). From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of tuberculosis mortality ranged from -2.2 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): -2.33, -2.05] in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -1.7 % [95 % CI: -1.81, -1.62] in low SDI countries. In some below-average SDI countries,men in the birth cohort are at a disadvantage and at risk of deterioration, necessitating comprehensive TB prevention and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

While the global incidence of TB has declined, adverse period and cohort effects have been identified in numerous countries, raising questions about the adequacy of TB healthcare provision across all age groups. Furthermore, this study reveals gender disparities in TB incidence.

Survival outcomes for congenital heart disease from Southern Malaysia: results from a congenital heart disease registry

OBJECTIVE

Limited population-based studies are available on the survival of congenital heart disease (CHD) from lower- and middle-income countries. Therefore, we evaluated the survival from birth until 15 years and associated factors for mortality.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study included all children with CHD registered in the Pediatric Cardiology Clinical Information System born between 2006 and 2020 in Johor, Malaysia. The mortality rate was calculated, and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with mortality. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the survival rates at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years.

RESULTS

There were 5728 patients with CHD studied, with 1543 (27%) lesions resolved spontaneously, 322 (5.6%) were treated with comfort care, 1189 (21%) required no intervention, and 2674 (47%) needed surgery or intervention. The overall mortality rate was 15%, with a median age of death of 3.7 months (IQR 0.9-9.8 months). Preoperative/intervention death was observed in 300 (11%), and 68 (3.2%) children died within 30 days of surgery or intervention. The overall estimated survival at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years was 88%, 85%, 84% and 83%, respectively. The independent factors associated with mortality were male gender, associated syndrome or extra-cardiac defect, pulmonary hypertension, antenatal diagnosis and severe lesions.

CONCLUSIONS

Eight out of 10 patients with CHDs survived up to 15 years of age. However, 10% of CHDs who require intervention die before the procedure. Thus, improving congenital cardiac surgery and enhancing the overall healthcare system are crucial to improve survival.

Evaluating a technologically enhanced rehabilitation programme for wound healing in patients with coronary heart disease

Wound healing symptoms in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) are frequently problematic, potentially resulting in complications. In order to tackle this concern, a state-of-the-art rehabilitation programme was created, which incorporated telehealth, virtual reality and robotics in an effort to optimize wound healing in patients with coronary heart disease. The purpose of this research was to assess the efficacy of a rehabilitation programme that utilized cutting-edge technology in enhancing the outcomes of wound recovery for individuals diagnosed with (CHD). Data from 120 CHD patients who participated in this longitudinal randomized controlled trial of a specialized rehabilitation programme intended to promote wound repair were utilized in a cross-sectional analysis. Anthropometric measurements, sociodemographical factors, exercise capacity and the progression of wound recovery were gathered as data. The research participants were primarily comprised of older males from various socioeconomic backgrounds. Age, gender, BMI, socio-educational orientation, physical activity, identified regulation and identified regulation were all significant determinants of wound healing. The significance of customized strategies in cardiac rehabilitation programmes that aim to achieve favourable wound healing outcomes is underscored by these results. In conclusion, this study emphasized the importance of incorporating unique patient attributes when designing technologically advanced rehabilitation protocols aimed at facilitating wound recovery in patients with coronary heart disease. Personalized interventions that consider these variables could potentially result in improved outcomes for wound healing among this particular group of patients.

Age-period-cohort analysis of ischemic stroke deaths attributable to physical inactivity in different income regions

This study assessed the global and regional burden of IS (ischemic stroke) deaths due to LPA (low physical activity) from 1990 to 2019, analyzed regional, sex, and age differences in ASMR (age-standardized mortality rate), and provided a comprehensive understanding of the impact of age, period, and cohort on low physical activity related ischemic stroke ASMR. We conducted an APC (age-period-cohort) analysis of the global and four World Bank income level regions' IS mortality data attributed to LPA from 1990 to 2019, using the GBD2019 database, and the results showed that the global net drift of the Ischemic stroke age-standardized mortality attributable to low physical activity was - 1.085%[95% CI: - 1.168, - 1.003].The ASMR drop is most pronounced in the high-income zone, with a net drift of - 2.473% [95% CI: - 2.759, - 2.187] across the four income groups. The influence of age on mortality is increasing in the worldwide old population, while the period and cohort effects are decreasing. We also performed a Joinpoint regression analysis, which revealed that the specific time of considerable drop in ASMR of IS in the global LPA population was 2002-2007, with an APC of -2.628%. The specific period of considerable drop in ASMR in high-income regions with the highest variation was 1999-2007, with an APC = - 4.726%. The global burden of public health deaths caused by LPA is diminishing, with the most notable progress observed in high-income regions. However, in low and lower-middle income areas, the situation continues to deteriorate. Within the global elderly population, the effects of age on mortality is increasing, while the effects of period and cohort are diminishing. These trends vary across income levels, highlighting the necessity for enhanced international collaboration to formulate context-specific public health strategies aimed at enhancing cardiovascular health on a global, regional, and national scale.

Hospital Resources and Practice Patterns for Congenital Cardiac Surgery in Pakistan: A Nationwide Status Report

Objective: Low- and middle-income countries such as Pakistan bear the brunt of the global burden of congenital heart disease (CHD), This nationwide study assessed hospital resources and surgical practice patterns pertaining to CHD surgery across Pakistan. Methods: A nationwide hospital facility survey was conducted, targeting all health centers performing CHD surgery in Pakistan. Descriptive data analysis was performed, with categorical variables being presented as frequencies and percentages and continuous variables being reported as means and standard deviations. Results: Seventeen surgeons across 17 different centers participated in the study. Eight of 17 (47%) surgeons were under 45 years of age, while the rest were older than 45 years. More respondents were employed at public/government-owned hospitals (11/17, 65%) and at specialized cardiac centers (13/17, 76%), with a majority of centers reported as having a special ICU designated for congenital cardiac patients (11/17, 65%). With regard to operative volume, 7 of 17 (41%) centers reported more than 350 cases per year, with 7 of 17 reported >10 neonatal cases per year (6/12, 50%). Only one center reported national and international collaborations for research, most centers carrying out less than five research projects in a year. Conclusion: This study has identified key areas that require the attention of local administrative bodies as well as international organizations and societies. The existing centers in Pakistan are unable to meet the demands of the population, leaving a large number of untreated patients, especially for neonatal lesions.

Failure to thrive in pediatric patients with congenital heart disease: a cross-sectional study of 13,256 patients

Background

The prevalence and risk factors for failure to thrive (FTT) in pediatric patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) remain ambiguous. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, growth profiles, risk factors, and vulnerable subtypes of CHD associated with FTT in pediatric patients with CHD.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study based on Chinese Database for Congenital Heart Surgery. FTT was defined as either stunting or underweight (height or weight standard deviation score <-2), and they were standardized by references of normal Chinese population. Risk factors was determined with logistic regression model, and growth profiles were delineated in each subgroup.

Findings

A total of 13,256 CHD patients were included in this study, with 3994 patients of mild CHD, 7195 patients of moderate CHD and 2067 patients of complex CHD. The prevalence of stunting, underweight and FTT was 24%, 29.3% and 36.9%, respectively. Preoperative anaemia, left ventricle systolic dysfunction, younger age, more complex CHD types, lower birth weight and genetic syndrome were found to be the risk factors for FTT in CHD patients. Interrupted aortic arch was revealed to be the most severe group associated with FTT.

Interpretation

FTT is ubiquitous in patients with CHD and exacerbated in high-risk subgroups. Our findings hinted the necessity of early identification and intervention for FTT in patients with CHD during daily practice of pediatrics, as it has the potential to improve outcomes and enhance their quality of life. Furthermore, we advocate for the initiation of prospective research with longitudinal data to comprehensively investigate the association between FTT and CHD across the lifespan.

Funding

This study was supported by National High Level Hospital Research Funding (2022-GSP-GG-19), Capital Health Research and Development of Special Fund (2022-1-4032) and National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC3600202 and 2022YFC3600203).

Maternal Exposure to Extreme Cold Events and Risk of Congenital Heart Defects: A Large Multicenter Study in China

Over the past decade, extreme temperature events have become more frequent and longer in duration. Previous studies on the association between extreme cold events (ECEs) and congenital heart defects (CHDs) are few and inconsistent. We conducted a national multicenter study in 1313 hospitals in 26 provinces in China and collected a total of 14 808 high CHD-risk participants from 2013 to 2021. We evaluated the ECEs experienced by each pregnant women during the embryonic period (3-8 weeks). The results indicated that ECEs experienced by pregnant women during the embryonic period were associated with the development of fetal CHD and were more strongly associated with some specific fetal CHD subtypes, such as pulmonary stenosis, pulmonary atresia, and tetralogy of Fallot. Of the CHD burden, 2.21% (95% CI: 1.43, 2.99%)-2.40% (95% CI: 1.26, 3.55%) of fetal CHD cases were attributable to ECEs during the embryonic period. Our findings emphasize the need to pay more attention to pregnant women whose embryonic period falls during the cold season to reduce cold spell detriments to newborns.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Maternal serum neonicotinoids during early-mid pregnancy and congenital heart diseases in offspring: An exploratory study

Experimental evidence has indicated a correlation between in-utero exposure to neonicotinoid pesticides (NEOs) and adverse birth outcomes in mammals. However, the distribution of NEO exposure during human pregnancy, as well as its association with congenital heart diseases (CHDs), the most common birth defects, are unclear. Our purpose was to explore the distribution of and contributing factors to NEO exposure in pregnant women during early-mid pregnancy and to assess the associations between NEOs and CHDs. This nested case-control study was conducted within an ongoing prospective birth cohort study and enrolled 141 CHD singletons and their 282 individually matched controls. Six "parent" NEOs and three NEO metabolites were measured in maternal serum collected at an average gestational age of 16 weeks, using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Logistic regression was used to quantify the NEOs-CHDs associations and explore potential contributing factors to serum NEO levels in controls. N-desmethyl acetamiprid (N-dm-ACE) and imidacloprid (IMI) were the most frequently detected NEOs, found in 100% and 20% of maternal sera, respectively. We did not find a statistically significant association between total NEOs and overall CHDs. However, there was a trend towards a higher risk of septal defects with greater serum NEOs (ORs ranged from 1.80 to 2.36), especially nitro-containing NEOs represented by IMI. Pregnant women with lower education had elevated serum total NEOs compared to women with higher education (OR = 48.39, 95% CI: 23.48-99.72). Pregnant women were primarily exposed to N-dm-ACE and IMI during early-mid pregnancy. Gestational exposure to NEOs may be associated with an increased risk of septal defects, but the evidence is limited at present. Education is a potential contributing factor to NEO exposure in pregnant women. Larger and more precise studies with longitudinal biospecimen collection, are recommended to validate our exploratory findings.

Secular trend of gout incidence in the UK: an age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

The incidence of gout in the UK appears to have declined since 2013; however, whether such a trend occurred across participants born in different years (ie, birth cohort) is unknown. We aimed to examine the effects of the birth cohort on gout incidence using an age-period-cohort (APC) model.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Nationwide data from the UK primary care database.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals between 30 and 89 years of age were included. We excluded individuals who had gout history when entering the database and individuals with less than 1 year of continuous follow-up between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2019.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Gout was identified using READ codes assigned by general practitioners. The incidence of gout between 1999-2013 and 2011-2019 was analysed with APC model.

RESULTS

The incidence of gout between 1999 and 2013 increased with birth cohorts. Compared with those born in 1949-1953 (reference), the age-adjusted and period-adjusted rate ratios (RRs) of incident gout increased from 0.39 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.46) in participants born in 1910-1914 to 2.36 (95% CI 2.09 to 2.66) in participants born in 1979-1983 (p for trend <0.001). In contrast, the incidence of gout between 2011 and 2019 decreased with birth cohorts. Compared with those born in 1949-1953 (reference), the age-adjusted and period-adjusted RRs of incident gout declined from 2.75 (95% CI 2.30 to 3.28) in participants born in 1922-1926 to 0.75 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.87) in participants born in 1976-1980 but then increased slightly to 0.95 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.17) in participants born in 1985-1989.

CONCLUSIONS

The gout incidence between 1999 and 2013 in the UK increased with the birth cohorts and then decreased between 2011 and 2019 except for those born after 1980. Future monitoring is needed to help identify aetiological factors and guide preventive and treatment strategies for gout.

Assessing Global, Regional, and National Time Trends and Associated Risk Factors of the Mortality in Ischemic Heart Disease Through Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death among noncommunicable diseases worldwide, but data on current epidemiological patterns and associated risk factors are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the global, regional, and national trends in IHD mortality and attributable risks since 1990.

METHODS

Mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. We used an age-period-cohort model to calculate longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), net drift (overall annual percentage change), and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group) from 15 to >95 years of age and estimate cohort and period effects between 1990 and 2019. Deaths from IHD attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and theoretical minimum risk exposure level.

RESULTS

IHD is the leading cause of death in noncommunicable disease-related mortality (118.1/598.8, 19.7%). However, the age-standardized mortality rate for IHD decreased by 30.8% (95% CI -34.83% to -27.17%) over the past 30 years, and its net drift ranged from -2.89% (95% CI -3.07% to -2.71%) in high sociodemographic index (SDI) region to -0.24% (95% CI -0.32% to -0.16%) in low-middle-SDI region. The greatest decrease in IHD mortality occurred in the Republic of Korea (high SDI) with net drift -6.06% (95% CI -6.23% to -5.88%), followed by 5 high-SDI nations (Denmark, Norway, Estonia, the Netherlands, and Ireland) and 2 high-middle-SDI nations (Israel and Bahrain) with net drift less than -5.00%. Globally, age groups of >60 years continued to have the largest proportion of IHD-related mortality, with slightly higher mortality in male than female group. For period and birth cohort effects, the trend of rate ratios for IHD mortality declined across successive period groups from 2000 to 2004 and birth cohort groups from 1985 to 2000, with noticeable improvements in high-SDI regions. In low-SDI regions, IHD mortality significantly declined in female group but fluctuated in male group across successive periods; sex differences were greater in those born after 1945 in middle- and low-middle-SDI regions and after 1970 in low-SDI regions. Metabolic risks were the leading cause of mortality from IHD worldwide in 2019. Moreover, smoking, particulate matter pollution, and dietary risks were also important risk factors, increasingly occurring at a younger age. Diets low in whole grains and legumes were prominent dietary risks in both male and female groups, and smoking and high-sodium diet mainly affect male group.

CONCLUSIONS

IHD, a major concern, needs focused health care attention, especially for older male individuals and those in low-SDI regions. Metabolic risks should be prioritized for prevention, and behavioral and environmental risks should attract more attention to decrease IHD mortality.

The congenital birth defects burden in children younger than 14 years of age, 1990 - 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study

Background

This study aims to delineate the burden of congenital birth defects (CBDs) in children under 14 years of age from 1990 to 2019, using an age-period-cohort framework to analyse data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD).

Methods

Data on prevalence cases, age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs), death cases, and age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) of congenital birth defects (CBDs) from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from GBD 2019. Using this data set, we conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to examine patterns and trends in mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CBDs, while exploring correlations with age, time periods, and generational birth cohorts. Furthermore, to quantify the temporal trends, we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for these parameters.

Results

The global prevalence of CBDs decreased from 1404.22 to 1301.66 per 100 000 with an EAPC of -0.18% from 1990 to 2019. CBD mortality decreased by 42.52% between 1990 and 2019, with the global age-standardised death rate declining from 49.72 to 25.58 per 100 000. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 4529.16 to 2393.61 per 100 000. Prevalence declined most notably among older children. The risk of CBDs reached its lowest during adolescence (10-14 years) across all regions. The most recent period (2015-2019) showed a reduced risk of prevalence compared to 2000-2004. Earlier birth cohorts displayed declining tendencies followed by slight increases in risk.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates encouraging global reductions in the burden of CBDs among children over the past three decades. Prevalence, mortality, and DALYs attributable to CBDs have exhibited downward trajectories, although regional disparities remain. APC analysis provides valuable insights to inform prevention and management strategies for pediatric CBDs.

Alerting trends in epidemiology for non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global and national burden of rheumatic mitral valve disease (MVD) has been well studied and estimated before. However, little is known about non-rheumatic degenerative MVD. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trends in non-rheumatic degenerative MVD (NRDMVD) epidemiology, with an emphasis on NRDMVD mortality, leading risk factors, and their associations with age, period, and birth cohort.

METHODS

Using the data derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, including prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years, we analyzed the burden of NRDMVD and the detailed trends of NRDMVD mortality over the past 30 years in 204 countries and territories by implementing the age-period-cohort framework.

RESULTS

Globally, the number of deaths due to NRDMVD increased from 5695.89 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 5405.19 to 5895.4) × 1000 in 1990 to 9137.79 (95% UI: 8395.68 to 9743.55) × 1000 in 2019. The all-age mortality rate increased from 106.47 (95% UI: 101.03 to 110.2) per 100,000 to 118.1 (95% UI: 108.51 to 125.93) per 100,000, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 170.45 (95% UI: 159.61 to 176.94) per 100,000 to 117.95 (95% UI: 107.83 to 125.92) per 100,000. The estimated net drift of mortality per year was -1.1% (95% confidence interval: -1.17 to -1.04). The risk of death due to NRDMVD increased with age, reaching its peak after 85 years old globally. Despite female patients being associated with lower local drift than male patients, no significant gender differences were observed in the age effect across countries and regions for all sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, except low-SDI regions.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to NRDMVD over approximately a 30-year period. The health-related burden of NRDMVD has declined worldwide; however, the condition persisted in low-SDI regions. Moreover, higher attention should be paid to female patients.

Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for musculoskeletal disorders in women of childbearing age, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

To provide an overview and in-depth analysis of temporal trends in prevalence of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in women of childbearing age (WCBA) at global, regional and national levels over the last 30 years, with a special focus on their associations with age, period and birth cohort.

METHODS

Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. An age-period-cohort model was adopted to estimate the overall annual percentage change of prevalence (net drift, % per year), annual percentage change of prevalence within each age group (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global number of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was 354.57 million (95% UI: 322.64 to 387.68). Fifty countries had at least one million prevalence, with India, China, the USA, Indonesia and Brazil being the highest accounting for 51.03% of global prevalence. From 1990 to 2019, a global net drift of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was -0.06% (95% CI: -0.07% to -0.05%) per year, ranging from -0.09% (95% CI: -0.10% to -0.07%) in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 0.10% (95% CI: 0.08% to 0.12%) in high-middle SDI region, with 138 countries presenting increasing trends, 24 presenting decreasing trends and 42 presenting relatively flat trends. As reflected by local drift, higher SDI regions had more age groups showing rising prevalence whereas lower SDI regions had more declining prevalence. Globally, an increasing occurrence of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA beyond adolescent and towards the adult stage has been prominent. Age effects illustrated similar patterns across different SDI regions, with risk increasing with age. High SDI region showed generally lower period risks over time, whereas others showed more unfavourable period risks. High, high-middle and middle SDI regions presented unfavourable prevalence deteriorations, whereas others presented favourable prevalence improvements in successively birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Although a favourable overall temporal trend (net drift) of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was observed over the last 30 years globally, there were 138 countries showing unfavourable rising trends, coupled with deteriorations in period/cohort risks in many countries, collectively raising concerns about timely realisation of the Targets of Sustainable Development Goal. Improvements in the MSK disorders-related prevention, management and treatment programmes in WCBA could decline the relative risk for successively younger birth cohorts and for all age groups over period progressing.

A Meta-Analysis of Atrial Septal Defect Closure in Patients With Severe Pulmonary Hypertension: Is There a Room for Poking Holes Amid Debate?

Severe pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) associated with atrial septal defect (ASD) poses a challenge to a closure of ASD, particularly severe PAH that persists even after pharmacological therapeutic strategy. Our study was aimed to evaluate this matter. A systematic literature search from several databases was conducted up until August 1st, 2023. A meta-analysis was undertaken on studies that reported hemodynamic measurements in ASD patients with severe PAH before and after closure. The primary objectives were the extent of improvement in all hemodynamic parameters following closure, and the secondary outcomes were major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) during follow-up. Our study comprised 10 studies with a total of 207 participants. Patients were divided into treat-and-repair and straight-to-repair groups based on the therapeutic strategy. Meta-analysis of all studies demonstrated significant improvement in mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP), pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR), pulmonary vascular resistance index (PVRI), 6-minutes walking distance (6MWD), and lower prevalence of World Health Organization functional classes (WHO fc), particularly in the treat-and-repair strategy subgroup. Additionally, merely 4 of the 156 individuals died from cardiac causes, and only 1 required rehospitalization, indicating a low likelihood of MACEs arising. Our new findings support the notion that effective shunt closure can improve various hemodynamic parameters in carefully chosen patients with noncorrectable ASD-PAH. Further large and prospective observational studies are still warranted to validate these findings.

Infant congenital heart disease prevalence and mortality in French Guiana: a population-based study

Background

Few studies have assessed the prevalence and mortality of simple or complex congenital heart diseases (CHD) in newborns. In Latin America and Caribbean (LAC), CHD epidemiology seems highly variable, with few population-based assessments and different methodologies between studies. To date, the situation in French Guiana, a French overseas territory located in South America between Brazil and Suriname, has never been described.

Methods

We analysed CHD prevalence, characteristics and related infant mortality in French Guiana, with a population-based registry analysis of all fetal and live birth CHD cases in infants under 1 year (January 2012-December 2016).

Findings

Overall, 33,796 births (32,975 live births) were registered, with 231 CHD (56 fetuses), including 215 live births. Most frequent CHD categories were anomalies of the ventricular outflow tract and extra-pericardial trunks, and ventricular septal defects. 18.6% (43/231) chromosomal or genetic anomalies, and 6.5% (15/231) terminations of pregnancy were observed. Total CHD prevalence was 68.4 [95% CI: 67.9-68.8] per 10,000, while live birth prevalence was 65.2 [95% CI: 64.7-65.7] per 10,000. Total infant mortality was 9.4/10,000 live births [95% CI 9.1-9.7], with highest rates for functionally univentricular hearts (FUH).

Interpretation

A distinct profile for CHD is highlighted in French Guiana with elevated mortality linked to FUH. A potential determinant of the recognized excess mortality risk might be the presence of chromosomal or genetic anomalies in about a fifth of all CHD. This helps us to better understand CHD burden in this part of South America and provides future keys towards reducing CHD-related infant mortality.

Funding

The authors received no financial support for the present research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Management Strategies for Congenital Heart Disease Comorbid with Airway Anomalies in Children

OBJECTIVE

To assess management strategies for pediatric patients with the challenging combination of congenital heart diseases (CHDs) and airway anomalies.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients diagnosed with CHD and airway anomalies in the Pediatric Cardiac Surgery Centre of Fuwai Hospital from January 2016 to December 2020 were included in this retrospective study. Patients were divided into three groups based on different management, including the conservative group, the slide group (slide tracheoplasty), and the suspension group (suspension with external stenting). Patients' data and computed tomography measurements from medical records were reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 139 patients were included in the cohort; 107 had conservative airway treatment (conservative group), 15 had slide tracheoplasty (slide group), and 17 had tracheal suspension operation (suspension group). The top three associated intracardiac anomalies were ventricular septal defect (n = 34, 24%), pulmonary artery sling (n = 22, 16%), and tetralogy of Fallot (n = 15, 11%). Compared with patients with conservative airway management (100 minutes [median], 62-152 [IQR]), the extra airway procedure prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass duration, with 202 minutes (IQR, 119-220) for the slide group and 150 minutes (IQR, 125-161) for the suspension group. Patients who underwent slide tracheoplasty required prolonged mechanical ventilation (129 minutes [median], 56-328 [IQR]). Of the total cohort, 6 in-hospital deaths, all in the conservative group, and 8 mid-to long-term deaths, with 6 in the conservative group, occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

Both conservative and surgical management of CHD patients with airway anomalies have promising outcomes. Extra tracheobronchial procedures, especially the slide tracheoplasty, significantly prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass duration. Based on multidisciplinary team assessment, individualized management strategies should be developed for these patients.

The burden of epilepsy in the People's Republic of China from 1990 to 2019: epidemiological trends and comparison with the global burden of epilepsy

Background

Epilepsy is associated with a significant global burden of disease, affecting over 50 million people worldwide. The specific aim of this study is to compare the burden of epilepsy in the People's Republic of China (PRC) with the global burden, and to analyze the epidemiological trends of epilepsy, the relationship between the burden of epilepsy and social demographic index (SDI), and the relative contributions of epidemiological factors.

Methods

This is a retrospective population-based study, data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. We employed Joinpoint software and the age-period-cohort (APC) model to analyze epilepsy's epidemiological trends. Health inequality analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of SDI on epilepsy burden. Decomposition analysis was performed to examine the relative contributions of age, population, and epidemiological changes to epilepsy.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate in the PRC increased by 45%, significantly surpassing the global incidence of epilepsy. However, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) decreased notably, and the proportion of Years of Life Lost (YLL) decreased from 62.73 to 39.03%. Concerning incidence, the period Rate Ratio (RR) in the PRC initially increased and then decreased, while the cohort RR in the PRC and globally exhibited a consistent upward trend. In terms of mortality, period RR and cohort RR in the PRC displayed a gradual decrease, with mortality starting higher but eventually falling below the global mortality. The net drifts of incidence were greater than 0, whereas the net drifts of mortality were less than 0, both were lower in the PRC than at the global level. Decomposition analysis indicated that the changes of incidence and mortality in the PRC were mainly attributed to epidemiological changes. Additionally, global disparities in epilepsy decreased, with the burden concentrating in low SDI countries.

Conclusion

The incidence of epilepsy in the PRC rose during the 30-year study period, while epilepsy mortality decreased. The improved survival rate in the PRC is predominantly attributable to epidemiological changes. The burden of epilepsy in the PRC predominantly affects males, children, and the elderly, Chinese government should focus on specific populations.

Factors associated with poor outcomes after congenital heart surgery in low-resource setting in Pakistan: insight from the IQIC Registry - a descriptive analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the International Quality Improvement Collaborative single-site data from a developing country to identify trends in outcomes and factors associated with poor outcomes.

DESIGN

Retrospective descriptive study.

SETTING

The National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD).

OUTCOME MEASURE

Key factors were examined, including preoperative, procedural and demographic data, as well as surgical complications and outcomes. We identified risk factors for mortality, bacterial sepsis and 30-day mortality using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 3367 CHD surgical cases were evaluated; of these, 59.4% (2001) were male and 82.8% (2787) were between the ages of 1 and 17 years. Only 0.2% (n=6) were infants (≤30 days) and 2.3% (n=77) were adults (≥18 years). The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.7% (n=224), and 4.4% (n=147) and 0.8% (n=27) had bacterial sepsis and surgical site infections, respectively. The 30-day status was known for 90.8% (n=3058) of the patients, of whom 91.6% (n=2800) were alive. On multivariable analysis, the adjusted OR for in-hospital mortality was 0.40 (0.29-0.56) for teenagers compared with infancy/childhood and 1.95 (1.45-2.61) for patients with oxygen saturation <85%. Compared with Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) risk category 1, the adjusted OR for in-hospital mortality was 1.78 (1.1-2.87) for RACHS-1 risk category 3 and 2.92 (1.03-8.31) for categories 4-6. The adjusted OR for 30-day mortality was 0.40 (0.30-0.55) for teenagers and 1.52 (1.16-1.98) for patients with oxygen saturation <85%. The 30-day mortality rate was significantly higher in RACHS-1 risk category 3 compared with category 1, with an adjusted OR of 1.64 (1.06-2.55).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a high prevalence of postoperative infections and mortality, especially for high-risk procedures, according to RACHS-1 risk category, in infancy/childhood, in children with genetic syndrome or those with low oxygen saturation (<85%).

Ovarian cancer disease burden decreased in the United States from 1975 to 2018: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the leading cause of gynecological cancer-related deaths in the United States. The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term trends in OC incidence and incidence-based mortality rates (IBM) in the U.S. from 1975 to 2018 and to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort factors on OC incidence and mortality using an age-period-cohort model. We obtained data from the U.S. OC incidence/mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1975 to 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine long-term trends and transitions, and an age-period-cohort model was used to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort parameters on incidence and mortality. In addition, 1990 to 2019 U.S. OC data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study served as a potential validation set. Between 1975 and 2018, 80,622 new cases of OC and 60,218 deaths from OC were reported in the U.S. The average annual percent change for OC incidence was -1.33 (95% CI: -1.64 to -1.02, P < .001), with a significant decrease in incidence at a rate of 7.80% (95% CI: -11.52 to -3.92) per year from to 2015-2018. IBM reached its peak for the U.S. population in 1994, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 6.38 (per 100,000 people). IBM rose first, peaked in 1986, and then declined at a rate of 0.39% (95% CI: -0.66 to -0.12) and 2.48% (95% CI: -3.09 to -1.85) per year from to 1986-2007 and 2007-2018, respectively. In addition, age-period-cohort model analysis showed the highest risk of OC incidence in 1980 to 1984 and the highest risk of OC death in 1985-1989. This study reported a significant decline in OC morbidity and mortality in the U.S. since 1986. In addition, this study analyzed the changes in trends in OC incidence and mortality by race/ethnicity in the U.S. Monitoring trends in OC incidence and mortality by race/ethnicity can help in the development of targeted prevention and treatment measures.

The Transition of Children Living With Congenital Heart Disease to Adult Care

The article explores the significance of the timely transition of a child living with congenital heart disease (CHD) to adult care and the role played by multidisciplinary care. Due to recent healthcare advances, more children with CHD survive to adulthood without surgical intervention. This survival is mainly due to the lesion being compatible with life and its management being done medically. However, further management requires meeting the child's needs and helping him transition to become a healthy, independent adult with almost equal life expectancy as his counterparts. The article reviews the comprehensive framework of transition through multidisciplinary care. Highlighting the necessity of training physicians to acquire expertise in the management of CHD is a foundational aspect of this review article. Introduction to transition requires assessment of the child's needs through all phases of life and informative counseling of both parents and child. It highlights the approach to educating patients and families with the knowledge to safeguard compliance. Multidisciplinary collaboration from various fields such as cardiology, pediatric physiatrist, nursing, and psychology has been stressed. Patients also need to cultivate skills in self-management and independence and be educated to comprehend their condition, including the potential health issues. This collaborative and multidisciplinary process necessitates the cooperation of patients, families, and the adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) team. Emphasis has been given to individualized counseling for girls to address their sexual health. The article also highlights the possible obstacles and how to tackle them to improve healthcare adherence. Timely transition and follow-up can be measured using various tools or through indices measuring the quality of life and average life expectancy. The global patterns of transition to ACHD care have also been emphasized, as well as the need for research studies to develop reliable indicators for assessing transition success.

Global, regional, and national burdens of atrial fibrillation/flutter from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) significantly impacts countries with varying income levels. We aimed to present worldwide estimates of its burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Methods

We derived cause-specific AF/AFL mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates from the GBD 2019 study data. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model to predict annual changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 50-55 to 90-95 years (local drifts), and period and cohort relative risks (period and cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019 by sex and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles. This allowed us to determine the impacts of age, period, and cohort on mortality and DALY trends and the inequities and treatment gaps in AF/AFL management.

Results

Based on GBD data, our estimates showed that 59.7 million cases of AF/AFL occurred worldwide in 2019, while the number of AF/AFL deaths rose from 117 000 to 315 000 (61.5% women). All-age mortality and DALYs increased considerably from 1990 to 2019, and there was an increase in age risk and a shift in death and DALYs toward the older (>80) population. Although the global net drift mortality of AF/AFL decreased overall (-0.16%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20, 0.12 per year), we observed an opposite trend in the low-middle SDI (0.53%; 95% CI = 0.44, 0.63) and low SDI regions (0.32%; 95% CI = 0.18, 0.45). Compared with net drift among men (-0.08%; 95% CI = -0.14, -0.02), women had a greater downward trend or smaller upward trend of AF/AFL (-0.21%; 95% CI = -0.26, -0.16) in mortality in middle- and low-middle-SDI countries (P < 0.001). Uzbekistan had the largest net drift of mortality (4.21%; 95% CI = 3.51, 4.9) and DALYs (2.16%; 95% CI = 2.05, 2.27) among all countries. High body mass index, high blood pressure, smoking, and alcohol consumption were more prevalent in developed countries; nevertheless, lead exposure was more prominent in developing countries and regions.

Conclusions

The burden of AF/AFL in 2019 and its temporal evolution from 1990 to 2019 differed significantly across SDI quintiles, sexes, geographic locations, and countries, necessitating the prioritisation of health policies based on risk-differentiated, cost-effective AF/AFL management.

Health related quality of life in adults after late repair of tetralogy of fallot: experience from a low-middle income country

PURPOSE

Without neonatal screening in low middle-income countries like Pakistan, Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is a congenital heart disease which frequently remains untreated beyond infancy. The purpose of this study is to determine and assess outcomes and health related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients who undergo complete repair of TOF as adults.

METHODS

56 patients who underwent complete TOF repair after 16 years of age were included. Patient data was collected via retrospective chart review, and a semi structured interview along with Short-Form 36 (SF-36) questionnaire were used to assess HRQOL.

RESULTS

66.1% of patients were male with the mean age at surgery of 22.3 ± 6.00. All patients had a post-operative NYHA Classification of I or II, 94.6% had an ejection fraction of ≥ 50% and 28.6% showed small residual lesions in follow-up echocardiograms. 32.1% of patients suffered post-operative morbidity. For the quantitative assessment using SF-36 scores, patients showed good scores of median 95 (65-100). A major cause of delay to treatment was lack of consensus between treatments offered by doctors in different parts of Pakistan. There was a pattern of 'inability to fit in' among patients who had had late TOF repair, despite self- reported improved HRQOL.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that even with a delayed diagnosis, surgical repair of TOF produces good functional results. However, these patients face significant psychosocial issues. While early diagnosis remains the ultimate goal, patients undergoing late repair should be managed in more holistic manner with attention to psychological impact of the disease as well.

Disease burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to lead exposure: A global analysis of 30 years since 1990

BACKGROUND

Exposure to lead (Pb) is associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, limited studies explored the global burden of CKD attributable to Pb exposure, especially in countries with different development levels. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the temporal and spatial trend in the disease burden of CKD attributable to Pb exposure in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used the data from Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to estimate annual deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of CKD attributable to Pb exposure. The annual average percentage change (AAPCs) was calculated using the Joinpoint model to evaluate the changing trend of CKD ASMR and ASDR attributable to Pb exposure from 1990 to 2019. Meanwhile, age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess changes in the mortality of CKD attributable to Pb exposure from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Global ASMR for CKD attributable to Pb exposure trended upward from 1990 to 2019. ASMR and ASDR were the highest in low and low-middle SDI regions. With the APC model, we found that global mortality rates for CKD attributable to Pb exposure increased with age. The global period rate ratio showed the highest value in 2000-2004 and the lowest in 2015-2019, while the global cohort rate ratio showed the highest value in 1941-1949 and the lowest during 1986-1994.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of CKD attributable to Pb exposure increased globally, especially in low and low-middle SDI regions, as well as the elderly. Pb exposure is still a great threat to the global burden of CKD, and the implementation of effective prevention measures to reduce Pb exposure in the environment should be continually strengthened.

Pancreatic cancer challenge in 52 Asian countries: age-centric insights and the role of modifiable risk factors (1990-2019)

Background

Pancreatic cancer is renowned for its elevated incidence and mortality rates on a global scale. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is anticipated to increase, particularly in Asia, due to its vast and rapidly aging population.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 were analyzed for pancreatic cancer burden across 52 countries in Asia, including the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for pancreatic cancer, with a focus on risk factors such as high body mass index (BMI), elevated fasting plasma glucose, and smoking. We applied the Estimated Annual Percentage Change, the Age-Period-Cohort model, and decomposition analysis to evaluate incidence trends and effects.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, both incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in Asia significantly increased, with an average annual standardized incidence rate change of 1.73%. Males consistently exhibited higher rates than females, with smoking as a key risk factor. Central Asia reported the highest rates, and South Asia the lowest. The incidence rose with age, peaking in those aged 70~74. The disease burden increased in all age groups, particularly in populations aged 55 and above, representing 84.41% of total cases in 2019, up from 79.01% in 1990. Pancreatic cancer ranked the fifth in incidence among six major gastrointestinal tumors but presented a significant growth rate of mortality and DALY.

Conclusion

With the growing, aging population in Asia, the pancreatic cancer burden is projected to escalate, bringing a significant public health challenge. Hence, comprehensive public health strategies emphasizing early detection, risk modification, and optimized treatment of pancreatic cancer are imperative.

Global burden of neoplasms attributable to specific occupational carcinogens over 30 years: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to analyze the global burden of occupational neoplasms from various epidemiological perspectives.

STUDY DESIGN

In this cross-sectional study, secondary analyses were conducted to assess the burden of neoplasms attributable to occupational carcinogens and their distribution characteristics using data from GBD 2019 and the World Bank database.

METHODS

Based on the GBD 2019 and the World Bank database, we analyzed the global burden of occupational neoplasms including the age-period-cohort model, decomposition analysis, health inequality analysis, and panel model. All analyses were conducted in R (version 4.0.3) and Joinpoint (version 4.9.1).

RESULTS

The absolute number of neoplasms burden attributable to occupational carcinogens has continued to rise over 30 years. In 2019, occupational neoplasms caused 333,867 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 263,491 to 404,641] mortalities and 6,964,775 (95% UI: 5,467,884 to 8,580,431) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. Greenland, Monaco, the Netherlands, and Andorra suffered the highest burden. The burden was higher in countries with a higher sociodemographic index. The age effect was prominent in the elderly, and the 1925 birth cohort had the highest cohort effect. Population growth was the most significant driver of the mortalities (89%) and DALYs (111%) change. Moreover, the proportion of urban population was significantly positively associated with the disease burden, while GDP per capita was negatively correlated with the disease burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of occupational neoplasms was unevenly distributed across locations and populations. The need for rational allocation of healthcare resources was urgent.

Survival From Birth Until Young Adulthood Among Individuals With Congenital Heart Defects: CH STRONG

BACKGROUND

Limited population-based information is available on long-term survival of US individuals with congenital heart defects (CHDs). Therefore, we assessed patterns in survival from birth until young adulthood (ie, 35 years of age) and associated factors among a population-based sample of US individuals with CHDs.

METHODS

Individuals born between 1980 and 1997 with CHDs identified in 3 US birth defect surveillance systems were linked to death records through 2015 to identify those deceased and the year of their death. Kaplan-Meier survival curves, adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) for infant mortality (ie, death during the first year of life), and Cox proportional hazard ratios for survival after the first year of life (aHRs) were used to estimate the probability of survival and associated factors. Standardized mortality ratios compared infant mortality, >1-year mortality, >10-year mortality, and >20-year mortality among individuals with CHDs with general population estimates.

RESULTS

Among 11 695 individuals with CHDs, the probability of survival to 35 years of age was 81.4% overall, 86.5% among those without co-occurring noncardiac anomalies, and 92.8% among those who survived the first year of life. Characteristics associated with both infant mortality and reduced survival after the first year of life, respectively, included severe CHDs (aRR=4.08; aHR=3.18), genetic syndromes (aRR=1.83; aHR=3.06) or other noncardiac anomalies (aRR=1.54; aHR=2.53), low birth weight (aRR=1.70; aHR=1.29), and Hispanic (aRR=1.27; aHR=1.42) or non-Hispanic Black (aRR=1.43; aHR=1.80) maternal race and ethnicity. Individuals with CHDs had higher infant mortality (standardized mortality ratio=10.17), >1-year mortality (standardized mortality ratio=3.29), and >10-year and >20-year mortality (both standardized mortality ratios ≈1.5) than the general population; however, after excluding those with noncardiac anomalies, >1-year mortality for those with nonsevere CHDs and >10-year and >20-year mortality for those with any CHD were similar to the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Eight in 10 individuals with CHDs born between1980 and 1997 survived to 35 years of age, with disparities by CHD severity, noncardiac anomalies, birth weight, and maternal race and ethnicity. Among individuals without noncardiac anomalies, those with nonsevere CHDs experienced similar mortality between 1 and 35 years of age as in the general population, and those with any CHD experienced similar mortality between 10 and 35 years of age as in the general population.

Alerting trends in epidemiology for calcific aortic valve disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIMS

To assess the trends in calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) epidemiology, with an emphasis on CAVD mortality, leading risk factors, and their associations with age, period, and birth cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and mortality were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-period-cohort model was employed to study the detailed trends of CAVD mortality and its leading risk factors. Globally, CAVD showed unsatisfactory results from 1990 to 2019, with the CAVD deaths of 127 000 in 2019. CAVD mortality was substantially reduced in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries [-1.45%, 95% confidence interval (CI) (-1.61 to -1.30)], mildly increased in high-middle SDI countries [0.22%, 95% CI (0.06-0.37)], and unchanged in other SDI quintiles. There was a noticeable transition in CAVD deaths from younger to older populations globally. The CAVD mortality increased exponentially with age, and the male had higher mortality than the female before 80 years old. Favourable period [0.69, 95% CI (0.66-0.72)] and birth effects [0.30, 95% CI (0.22-0.43)] were mainly observed in high SDI countries, while unfavourable effects were mostly noticed in high-middle SDI countries. High systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor of CAVD deaths globally, and it showed favourable trends in high SDI regions.

CONCLUSION

Although CAVD mortality reduction was observed globally, unfavourable period, and cohort effects were found in many countries. Increase of mortality rate among the population ≥85 years was the common challenge across all SDI quintiles, stressing the necessity to further improve health care for CAVD patients worldwide.

Analysis of congenital heart disease research: Mapping impact, production and global collaboration

Background

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a severe childhood health problem worldwide. This study analyzes the scientific production on CHD published in Scopus during the last decade.

Methods

This study assessed the research on CHD conducted during the 2011-2020 period. Indexed publications were identified using a list of keywords consisting of MeSH (Medical Subject Heading) and Emtree (EMBASE) terms for the category "Congenital Heart Defects." The studies obtained were analyzed using the SciVal platform, and the production, impact, and collaboration indicators were considered. Additionally, an analysis of co-occurrence between countries and keywords was carried out with the VOSviewer software.

Results

The study found 8934 articles on CHD. A growing trend was observed during the last decade. The distribution of the scientific production at the international level shows that most publications are from the United States, China, and the United Kingdom, whereas Latin American countries have the lowest production. The articles analyzed contain a total of 89,835 citations. Most studies are published in high-impact journals (Q1), with 3273 studies corresponding to 39.3% of the total production analyzed. In the keyword analysis, we found five areas investigated.

Conclusions

Scientific production has shown sustained growth in the past years. Increased scientific production in specific research areas may have helped decrease morbimortality due to CHD.

Population health and sociodemographic variables as predictors of access to cardiac medicine and surgery in Haiti

BACKGROUND

In Haiti, cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, with congenital and rheumatic heart disease comprising a large portion of disease burden. However, domestic disparities in cardiac care access and their impact on clinical outcomes remain poorly understood. We analyzed population-level sociodemographic variables to predict cardiac care outcomes across the 10 Haitian administrative departments.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study combined data from a 2016-17 Haitian national survey with aggregate outcomes from the Haiti Cardiac Alliance (HCA) database (n = 1817 patients). Using univariate and multivariable regression analyses, the proportion of HCA patients belonging to each of three clinical categories (active treatment, lost to follow-up, deceased preoperatively) was modeled in relation to six population-level variables selected from national survey data at the level of the administrative department.

RESULTS

In univariate analysis, higher department rates of childhood growth retardation were associated with a lower proportion of patients in active care (OR = 0.979 [0.969, 0.989], p = 0.002) and a higher proportion of patients lost to follow-up (OR = 1.016 [1.006, 1.026], p = 0.009). In multivariable analysis, the proportion of department patients in active care was inversely associated with qualified prenatal care (OR = 0.980 [0.971, 0.989], p = 0.005), and child growth retardation (OR = 0.977 [0.972, 0.983]), p = 0.00019). Similar multivariable results were obtained for department rates of loss to follow-up (child growth retardation: OR = 1.018 [1.011, 1.025], p = 0.002; time to nearest healthcare facility in an emergency: OR = 1.004 [1.000, 1.008, p = 0.065) and for preoperative mortality (prenatal care: OR = 0.989 [0.981, 0.997], p = 0.037; economic index: OR = 0.996 [0.995, 0.998], p = 0.007; time to nearest healthcare facility in an emergency: OR = 0.992 [0.988, 0.996], p = 0.0046).

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level survey data on multiple variables predicted domestic disparities in HCA clinical outcomes by region. These findings may help to identify underserved areas in Haiti, where increased cardiac care resources are required to improve health equity. This approach to analyzing clinical outcomes through the lens of population-level survey data may inform future health policies and interventions designed to increase cardiac care access in Haiti and other low-income countries.

Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is the fastest-growing risk factor for cancer deaths worldwide. We reported the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels over the past three decades and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.

METHODS

Data for this study were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and we used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate age, cohort and period effects, as well as net drift (overall annual percentage change) and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group).

RESULTS

Over the past 30 years, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to HFPG has increased by 27.8%. The ASMR in 2019 was highest in the male population in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (8.70; 95% CI, 2.23-18.04). The net drift for mortality was highest in the female population in low SDI areas (2.33; 95% CI, 2.12-2.55). Unfavourable period and cohort effects were found across all SDI quintiles. Cancer subtypes such as "trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers", "colon and rectal cancers", "breast cancer" and "pancreatic cancer" exhibited similar trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The cancer mortality attributable to HFPG has surged during the past three decades. Unfavourable age-period-cohort effects on mortality were observed across all SDI quintiles, and the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the future, particularly in lower SDI locations. This is a grim global public health issue that requires immediate attention.

Improving long-term care and outcomes of congenital heart disease: fulfilling the promise of a healthy life

Advances in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for congenital heart disease (CHD), the most common birth defect in China, have drastically improved survival for individuals with the disease. However, China's current health system is not well prepared to manage the growing population of people with CHD and their complex medical needs, which range from early detection of the condition and intervention for physical, neurodevelopmental, and psychosocial impairment, to long-term management of major complications and chronic health problems. Health disparities caused by long-standing regional differences in access to care pose challenges when major complications such as pulmonary hypertension arise, and when individuals with complex CHD become pregnant and give birth. Currently, no data sources track neonates, children, adolescents, and adults with CHD in China and delineate their clinical characteristics and use of health resources. This scarcity of data should warrant attention from the Chinese Government and relevant specialists in the field. In the third paper of the Series on CHD in China, we summarise key literature and current data to identify knowledge gaps and call for concerted efforts by the government, hospitals, clinicians, industries, and charitable organisations to develop an actionable, lifelong framework of congenital cardiac care that is accessible and affordable for all individuals with CHD. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Current treatment outcomes of congenital heart disease and future perspectives

China has the largest number of individuals with congenital heart disease (CHD) in the world and a heavy burden of CHD. Therefore, understanding current CHD treatment outcomes and patterns in China will contribute to global progress in CHD treatment and be a valuable experience. Generally, CHD treatment in China has satisfactory outcomes owing to the joint efforts by all relevant stakeholders across the country. However, efforts are needed to overcome the remaining challenges: management of mitral valve disease and paediatric end-stage heart failure needs to be improved; cohesive paediatric cardiology teams should be established and collaboration between hospitals enhanced; CHD-related medical resources need to be more accessible and equitable; and nationwide CHD databases should be enhanced. In the second paper of this Series, we aim to systematically summarise the current CHD treatment outcomes in China, discuss potential solutions, and provide future perspectives.

Evolving trends in drug overdose mortality in the USA from 2000 to 2020: an age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Drug overdose deaths in the USA have increased rapidly in the past 20 years, and understanding patterns and trends in mortality is essential to develop policy responses. This study aimed to determine whether cohort patterns in mortality due to drug overdose have changed in the past two decades and assess these patterns by race and sex.

Methods

The national records of accidental drug overdose death were extracted from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data for 2000-2020. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on accidental drug overdose mortality.

Findings

The number of accidental drug overdose deaths increased by 622% between 2000 and 2020, and age-standardized mortality rates increased nearly four-fold in both men and women. Age-period-cohort decomposition found rapid increases in mortality since 2012 in men and women, with higher mortality risk in cohorts born after 1990. The fastest increase occurred in Black Americans since 2012, and Americans of all races born after 1975 had significantly higher mortality risk, with mortality risk increasing rapidly in more recent cohorts. The peak of mortality has shifted from the 40-59 age group to the 30-40 year age group in the past decade.

Interpretation

The burden of drug overdose mortality has shifted to younger Americans, and a new generation of Americans are at significantly higher and rapidly increasing risk of overdose death. Urgent action is needed to prevent an entire generation of young people being consigned to decades of preventable mortality.

Funding

None.

The 'Ironclad friendship' of China-Cambodia, lays the first step in the foundation of early diagnosis and treatment of asymptomatic congenital heart Defects- A multi-national screening and intervention project, 2017-2020

BACKGROUND

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of mortality in childhood worldwide. However, a large number of children with CHD are not diagnosed promptly in low- and middle-income regions, due to limited healthcare resources and lack the ability of prenatal and postnatal ultrasound examinations. The research on asymptomatic CHD in the community is still blank, resulting in a large number of children with asymptomatic CHD can not be found and treated in time. Through the China-Cambodia collaborative health care initiative, the project team conducted research, screened children's CHD through a sampling survey in China and Cambodia, collected relevant data, and retrospectively analyzed the data of all eligible patients.

OBJECTIVES

The project aimed to evaluate the prevalence of asymptomatic CHD in a sample population of 3-18years old and effects on their growth status and treatment outcomes.

METHODS

We examined the prevalence of 'asymptomatic CHD' among 3-18years old children and adolescents at the township/county levels in the two participating. A total of eight provinces in China and five provinces in Cambodia were analyzed from 2017 to 2020. During 1 year follow-up after treatment, the differences in heights and weights of the treated and control groups were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among the 3,068,075 participants screened from 2017 to 2020, 3967 patients with asymptomatic CHD requiring treatment were identified [0.130%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.126 -0.134%]. The prevalence rate of CHD ranged from 0.02 to 0.88%, and was negatively related to local per capita GDP (p = 0.028). The average height of 3310 treated CHD patients were 2.23% (95% CI: -2.51%~-1.9%) lower than that of the standard group and the average weight was - 6.41% (95% CI: -7.17%~-5.65%) lower, the developmental gap widening with advancing age. One year after treatment, the relative height difference remained comparable while that, in weight was reduced by 5.68% (95% CI: 4.27% ~7.09%).

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic CHD now is often overlooked and is an emerging public health challenge. Early detection and treatment are essential to lower the potential burden of heart diseases in children and adolescents.

Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for stroke, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study and implications for stroke prevention

BACKGROUND

Despite the fact that stroke is the second leading cause of death globally, a comprehensive and comparable assessment of mortality, and epidemiologic trends has not been conducted for most regions.We estimated the global and regional burden of stroke from 1990 to 2019 using data from the 2019 Global Study of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors.

METHODS

For the period between 1990 and 2019, we used an age-period-cohort model to calculate the annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), local drifts, and period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects). Meanwhile, to quantify the temporal trends in stroke age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were determined by sex, area. With the potential to uncover disparities and treatment gaps in stroke care, this approach enables the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in mortality trends.

FINDINGS

Global stroke deaths in 2019 were 6,552,725 (95% UI 5,995,200 to 7,015,139). Between 1990 and 2019, the ASMR declined globally by 36.43% (95% UI -41.65 to -31.2), with decreases in all SDI quintiles. The net drift in stroke mortality from 1990 to 2019 varied from -2.83% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]:-3.39 to -2.77) in countries with a high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) to -1.21% per year (95% CI: -1.26 to -1.16) in countries with a low SDI. During the past 30 years, favorable mortality reductions were generally found in high-SDI countries (net drift = -3.1% [95% CI: -3.4 to -2.8] per year) and high-middle SDI countries (-2.8% [-3.0 to -2.6]). However, 31 of 204 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥ - 0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts among high and high-middle SDI countries, with the exceptions of Kuwait, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Guam, RussianFederation, Lithuania, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovin, and Bulgaria.

INTERPRETATION

Notwithstanding mortality from stroke has increased globally over the past 30 years, adverse period and cohort effects have been found in many countries, calling into question the adequacy of healthcare for stroke patients of all ages. These lapses have a significant impact on the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets on mortality from age 60+ and NCDs.

Nono deficiency impedes the proliferation and adhesion of H9c2 cardiomyocytes through Pi3k/Akt signaling pathway

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most common type of birth defect and the main noninfectious cause of death during the neonatal stage. The non-POU domain containing, octamer-binding gene, NONO, performs a variety of roles involved in DNA repair, RNA synthesis, transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation. Currently, hemizygous loss-of-function mutation of NONO have been described as the genetic origin of CHD. However, essential effects of NONO during cardiac development have not been fully elucidated. In this study, we aim to understand role of Nono in cardiomyocytes during development by utilizing the CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing system to deplete Nono in the rat cardiomyocytes H9c2. Functional comparison of H9c2 control and knockout cells showed that Nono deficiency suppressed cell proliferation and adhesion. Furthermore, Nono depletion significantly affected the mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) and glycolysis, resulting in H9c2 overall metabolic deficits. Mechanistically we demonstrated that the Nono knockout impeded the cardiomyocyte function by attenuating phosphatidyl inositol 3 kinase-serine/threonine kinase (Pi3k/Akt) signaling via the assay for transposase-accessible chromatin using sequencing in combination with RNA sequencing. From these results we propose a novel molecular mechanism of Nono to influence cardiomyocytes differentiation and proliferation during the development of embryonic heart. We conclude that NONO may represent an emerging possible biomarkers and targets for the diagnosis and treatment of human cardiac development defects.

Projected Global Trends in Ischemic Stroke Incidence, Deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years From 2020 to 2030

BACKGROUND

We projected global trends in ischemic stroke from 2020 to 2030 according to age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile.

METHODS

Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to project trends in the incidence of deaths from and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to ischemic stroke between 2020 and 2030. EAPCs were computed using generalized additive models and data from the Global Burden of Disease study during the 1990 to 2019 period.

RESULTS

The global age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke was projected to increase to 89.32 per 100 000 population in 2030 (EAPC=0.89), whereas the associated global age-standardized death and DALY rates were projected to decrease to 18.28 (EAPC, -3.58) and 500.37 per 100 000 (EAPC=-1.75), respectively, in 2030. The projections indicated a higher age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke among women than among men in 2030 (90.70 versus 87.64 per 100 000). The incidence rate of ischemic stroke was projected to increase across all age groups and SDI quintiles between 2020 and 2030. At the national level, the greatest increase in the age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke between 2020 and 2030 was projected to occur in Cyprus (EAPC=4.16), followed by Palestine (EAPC=3.50) and South Africa (EAPC=2.64). Additionally, the projections suggested increases in the age-standardized death and DALY rates due to ischemic stroke for countries in low-SDI quintiles (EAPC=3.68 and EAPC=5.30, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The projections indicated that the incidence rate of ischemic stroke will increase both sexes, all age groups, and all SDI quintiles and in some countries between 2020 and 2030. Furthermore, countries with a low SDI should be aware of potential increases in the age-standardized death and DALY due to ischemic stroke.

The prenatal weekly temperature exposure and neonatal congenital heart disease: a large population-based observational study in China

We aim to explore the link between maternal weekly temperature exposure and CHD in offspring and identify the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme atmospheric temperature. From January 2019 to December 2020, newborns who were diagnosed with CHD by echocardiography in the Network Platform for Congenital Heart Disease (NPCHD) from 11 cities in eastern China were enrolled in the present study. We appraised the exposure lag response relationship between temperature and CHDs in the distributed lag nonlinear model and further probed the pooled estimates by multivariate meta-analysis. We further performed the exposure-response curves in extreme temperature (5th percentile for cold and 95th for hot events). We also delve into the cumulative risk ratios (CRRs) of temperature on CHDs in general and subgroups. In this study, 5904 of 983, 523 infants were diagnosed with CHDs. The temperature-CHD combination performed positive significance in two exposure windows, gestational weeks 10-16 and 26-31, and reached the maximum effect in the 28th week. Compared with extreme cold (5th, 6.14℃), these effects were higher in extreme heat (95th, 29.26℃). The cumulative exposure-response curve showed a steep nonlinear rise in the hot tail but showed non-significance at low temperatures. In this range, the CRRs of temperature showed an increment to a ceiling of 3.781 (95% CI: 1.460-10.723). The temperature- CHD curves for both sex groups showed a general growth trend. No statistical significance was observed between these two groups (P = 0.106). The cumulative effect of the temperature related CHD was significant in regions with lower education levels (maximum CRR was 9.282 (3.019-28.535)). A degree centigrade increase in temperature exposure was associated with the increment of CHD risk in the first and second trimesters, especially in extreme heat. Neonates born in lower education regions were more vulnerable to temperature-related CHDs.