Dying younger in Scotland: Trends in mortality and deprivation relative to England and Wales, 1981-2011

What is missing from how we measure and understand the experience of poverty and deprivation in population health analyses?

BACKGROUND

Explaining why some populations are healthier than others is a core task of epidemiology. Socioeconomic position (SEP), encompassing a broad range of exposures relating to economic circumstances, social class and deprivation, is an important explanation, but lacks a comprehensive framework for understanding the range of relevant exposures it encompasses.

METHODS

We reviewed existing literature on experiential accounts of poverty through database searching and the identification of relevant material by experts. We mapped relevant concepts into a complex systems diagram. We developed this diagram through a process of consultation with academic experts and experts with direct experience of poverty. Finally, we categorized concepts on the basis of whether they have previously been measured, their importance to the causal flow of the diagram, and their importance to those consulted, creating a list of priorities for future measurement.

RESULTS

There are a great many aspects of SEP which are not frequently measured or used in epidemiological research and, for some of these, work is needed to better conceptualize and develop measures. Potentially important missing aspects include stigma, social class processes, access to education, sense of lost potential, neighbourhoods, fairness and justice, emotional labour, masking poverty, being (in)visible, costs, and experiences of power.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses seeking to understand the extent to which SEP exposures explain differences in the health of populations are likely to benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the range and inter-relationships between different aspects of SEP. More research to better conceptualize and measure these aspects is now needed.

The public health implications of the cost-of-living crisis: outlining mechanisms and modelling consequences

The UK, and other high-income countries, are experiencing substantial increases in living costs. Several overlapping and intersecting economic crises threaten physical and mental health in the immediate and longer term. Policy responses may buffer against the worst effects (e.g. welfare support) or further undermine health (e.g. austerity). We explore fundamental causes underpinning the cost-of-living crisis, examine potential pathways by which the crisis could impact population health and use a case study to model potential impacts of one aspect of the crisis on a specific health outcome. Our modelling illustrates how policy approaches can substantially protect health and avoid exacerbating health inequalities. Targeting support at vulnerable households is likely to protect health most effectively. The current crisis is likely to be the first of many in era of political and climate uncertainty. More refined integrated economic and health modelling has the potential to inform policy integration, or 'health in all policies'.

Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

BACKGROUND

Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown.

METHODS

This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974-2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99th compared to the 90th percentile.

RESULTS

Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions except northern Scotland. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 10% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7%, 13%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 2%, 5%) under extreme heat. People in urban areas experienced higher mortality risk under extreme cold and heat than those in rural regions. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold and heat. Males experienced greater cold effects than females, whereas the reverse was true with heat effects, particularly among the elderly. Those who were unmarried had higher RR than those married under extreme heat, and the effect remained after controlling for age. The younger population living in the most deprived areas experienced higher cold and heat effects than in less deprived areas. Deaths from respiratory diseases were most sensitive to both cold and heat exposures, although mortality risk for cardiovascular diseases was also heightened, particularly in the elderly. Cold effects were lower in the most recent 15 years, which may be linked to policies and actions in preventing the vulnerable population from cold impacts. No temporal trend was found with the heat effect.

CONCLUSIONS

This study assesses mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures in Scotland and identifies those groups who would benefit most from targeted actions to reduce cold- and heat-related mortalities.

(Un-) healthy ageing: Geographic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in England and Wales

Health expectancies are an indicator of healthy ageing that reflect quantity and quality of life. Using limiting long term illness and mortality prevalence, we calculate disability-free life expectancy for small areas in England and Wales between 1991 and 2011 for males and females aged 50-74, the life stage when people may be changing their occupation from main career to retirement or alternative work activities. We find that inequalities in disability-free life expectancy are deeply entrenched, including former coalfield and ex-industrial areas and that areas of persistent (dis-) advantage, worsening or improving deprivation have health change in line with deprivation change. A mixed health picture for rural and coastal areas requires further investigation as do the demographic processes which underpin these area level health differences.

Excess mortality in Glasgow: further evidence of 'political effects' on population health

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to update previous analyses of 'excess mortality' in Glasgow (Scotland) relative to the similar postindustrial cities of Liverpool and Manchester (England). The excess is defined as mortality after adjustment for socio-economic deprivation; thus, we sought to compare changes over time in both the deprivation profiles of the cities and the levels of deprivation-adjusted mortality in Glasgow relative to the other cities. This is important not only because the original analyses are now increasingly out of date but also because since publication, important (prepandemic) changes to mortality trends have been observed across all parts of the United Kingdom.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Replicating as far as possible the methods of the original study, we developed a three-city deprivation index based on the creation of spatial units in Glasgow that were of similar size to those in Liverpool and Manchester (average population sizes of approximately 1600, 1500 and 1700 respectively) and an area-based measure of 'employment deprivation'. Mortality and matching population data by age, sex and small area were obtained from national agencies for two periods: 2003-2007 (the period covered by the original study) and 2014-2018. The rates of employment deprivation for each city's small areas were calculated for both periods. Indirectly standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for Glasgow relative to Liverpool and Manchester, standardised by age and three-city deprivation decile. For context, city-level trends in age-standardised mortality rates by year, sex and city were also calculated.

RESULTS

There was evidence of a stalling of improvement in mortality rates in all three cities from the early 2010s. After adjustment for area deprivation, all-cause mortality in Glasgow in 2014-2018 was c.12% higher than in Liverpool and Manchester for all ages (SMR 112.4, 95% CI 111.1-113.6) and c.17% higher for deaths under 65 years (SMR 117.1, 95% CI 114.5-119.7). The excess was higher for males (17% compared with 9% for deaths at all ages; 25% compared with 5% for 0-64 years) and for particular causes of death such as suicide and drug-related and alcohol-related causes. The results were broadly similar to those previously described for 2003-2007, although the excess for premature mortality was notably lower. In part, this was explained by changes in levels of employment deprivation, which had decreased to a greater degree in the English cities: this was particularly true of Manchester (a reduction of -43%, compared with -38% in Liverpool and -31% in Glasgow) where the overall population size had also increased to a much greater extent than in the other cities.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of excess mortality persist in Glasgow. With the political causes recently established - the excess is a 'political effect', not a 'Glasgow effect' - political solutions are required. Thus, previously published recommendations aimed at addressing poverty, inequality and vulnerability in the city are still highly relevant. However, given the evidence of more recent, UK-wide, political effects on mortality - widening mortality inequalities resulting from UK Government 'austerity' measures - additional policies at UK Government level to protect, and restore, the income of the poorest in society are also urgently needed.

Cancer mortality 1981-2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

In many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.

METHODS

Using high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.

RESULTS

Cancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.

CONCLUSION

Current relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.

Spatial and temporal inequalities in mortality in the USA, 1968-2016

Previous UK and European research has highlighted important variations in mortality between populations after adjustment for key determinants such as poverty and deprivation. The aim here was to establish whether similar populations could be identified in the US, and to examine changes over time. We employed Poisson regression models to compare county-level mortality with national rates between 1968 and 2016, adjusting for poverty, education, race (a proxy for exposure to racism), population change and deindustrialisation. Results are presented by means of population-weighted cartograms, and highlight widening spatial inequalities in mortality over time, including an urban to rural, and south-westward, shift in areas with the highest levels of such unexplained 'excess' mortality. There is a need to understand the causes of the excess in affected communities, given that it persists after adjustment for such a broad range of important health determinants.

A syndemic of psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and poor physical health among young Scottish men with reduced life expectancy

Background

Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, driven by high rates of cancer, suicides, alcohol-related causes and drug-related poisonings. These disparities cannot be explained solely by socioeconomic deprivation. Our aim was to investigate whether a syndemic in a socioeconomically deprived area of Glasgow might account for premature mortality among men.

Methods

We analysed data from two cross-sectional population surveys: a national sample of 1916 British men and another of 765 men in Glasgow East. The survey included men aged 18–34, and was undertaken in 2011 to study correlates of violence. Questionnaires covered current physical health, psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, and crime and violence. Syndemic components were identified using confirmatory factor analysis. Associations and synergistic interactions between these variables and health status were estimated using logistic regression.

Results

An aggregation of multiple health conditions and health-related behaviours was found in Glasgow East. A syndemic model of joint effects, adducing a four-component latent variable (violence, substance dependence, psychiatric morbidity and a diathesis of biological/behavioural risk) showed synergy between components and explained persistent disparities in poor physical health/chronic health conditions. Effect modification was found between the general syndemic factor and contextual variables at individual and social environmental level according to location.

Conclusions

Syndemic effects from synergistic interactions were confirmed between psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and biological/behavioural risk for physical health. A hypothetical model was developed to explain how the syndemic leads to potentially life-threatening risks to young men, both currently and as precursors of physical health conditions which may shorten their lives in the future.

•

Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, especially among men in areas of Glasgow. This has not responded to Public Health interventions.

•

A syndemic was identified among young men with synergism between violence, substance misuse, biological/behavioural physical health risks, and psychiatric morbidity.

•

Synergistic interactions between components of the syndemic may result in precursors of multiple physical health conditions which will shorten men's lives in the future.

Interpersonal violence in a deprived Scottish urban area with aggregations of physical health risks and psychiatric morbidity: an ecological study

Background

Glasgow, Scotland, has previously shown exceptional levels of violence among young men, shows aggregations of health conditions, with shortened life expectancy. Health conditions can be both causes and consequences of violence, of shared community-level socio-economic risk factors, and can result from large-scale social forces beyond the control of populations with high levels of violence. The aim of the study was to provide an in depth understanding of the Public Health problem of violence among young adult men in Glasgow East.

Method

Ecological investigation of violence and its associations with health conditions in areas of contrasting socioeconomic deprivation. National survey of 1916 British men aged 18–34 years, augmented by a sub-sample of 765 men in Glasgow East (GE). Participants completed questionnaires covering current physical and sexual health, psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, lifestyle, and crime and violence.

Results

The 5-year prevalence of violence was similar in both surveys but fights involving weapons (AOR 3.32, 95% CI 2.29–4.79), gang fights (AOR 2.30, 95% CI 1.77–2.98), and instrumental violence supporting criminal lifestyles were more common in GE, where 1 in 9 men had been in prison. Violent men in both samples reported poorer physical and sexual health and all types of psychiatric morbidity except depression, with multiple high-risk behaviours for both future poor health and violence. Associations between drug and alcohol dependence and violence in GE could not be entirely explained by deprivation.

Conclusion

Violence in deprived urban areas is one among many high-risk behaviours and lifestyle factors leading to, as well as resulting from, aggregations of both psychiatric and physical health conditions. Poverty partly explained raised levels of violence in GE. Other factors such as drug and alcohol misuse and macho attitudes to violence, highly prevalent among men in this socially excluded community, also contributed. Multi-component preventive interventions may be needed in deprived areas and require future investigations into how multiple co-existing risk factors produce multimorbidity, including psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, poor physical health and violence.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11167-z.

Deaths of despair: cause-specific mortality and socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific mortality among young men in Scotland

Background

Increasing mortality among men from drugs, alcohol and suicides is a growing public health concern in many countries. Collectively known as “deaths of despair”, they are seen to stem from unprecedented economic pressures and a breakdown in social support structures.

Methods

We use high-quality population wide Scottish data to calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates for men aged 15–44 between 1980 and 2018 for 15 leading causes of mortality. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality by cause are calculated using small-area deprivation and the slope and relative indices of inequality (SII and RII_L) for the years 2001–2018.

Results

Since 1980 there have been only small reductions in mortality among men aged 15–44 in Scotland. In that period drug-related deaths have increased from 1.2 (95% CI 0.7–1.4) to 44.9 (95% CI 42.5–47.4) deaths per 100,000 and are now the leading cause of mortality. Between 2001 and 2018 there have been small reductions in absolute but not in relative inequalities in all-cause mortality. However, absolute inequalities in mortality from drugs have doubled from SII = 66.6 (95% CI 61.5–70.9) in 2001–2003 to SII = 120.0 (95% CI 113.3–126.8) in 2016–2018. Drugs are the main contributor to inequalities in mortality, and together with alcohol harm and suicides make up 65% of absolute inequalities in mortality.

Conclusions

Contrary to the substantial reductions in mortality across all ages in the past decades, deaths among young men are increasing from preventable causes. Attempts to reduce external causes of mortality have focused on a single cause of death and not been effective in reducing mortality or inequalities in mortality from external causes in the long-run. To reduce deaths of despair, action should be taken to address social determinants of health and reduce socioeconomic inequalities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-020-01329-7.

Current status of opioid epidemic in the United Kingdom and strategies for treatment optimisation in chronic pain

The increase in opioid prescriptions in the United States has been accompanied by an increase in misuse as well as overdose and toxicity related morbidity and mortality. However, the extent of the increased opioid use, including misuse in the United Kingdom, currently remains less debated. Recent studies in the United Kingdom have shown a rise in opioid use and attributed deaths, particularly in areas with higher deprivation. There are also large variations amongst the devolved nations; Scotland has the highest drug-related deaths and year-on-year increase within Europe. Better clinical guidelines that can enable person-centred management of chronic pain, medicines optimisation, and early diagnosis and treatment of opioid use disorder are crucial to addressing opioid-related morbidity and mortality in the United Kingdom.

Differences and determinants of vitamin D deficiency among UK biobank participants: A cross-ethnic and socioeconomic study

BACKGROUND

The public health relevance of true vitamin D deficiency is undisputed, although controversy remains regarding optimal vitamin D status. Few contemporary cross-ethnic studies have investigated the prevalence and determinants of very low 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations.

METHODS

We conducted cross-ethnic analyses on the prevalence and determinants of vitamin D deficiency (25(OH)D ≤ 25 nmol/L) using data from 440,581 UK Biobank participants, of which 415,903 identified as White European, 7880 Asian, 7602 Black African, 1383 Chinese, and 6473 of mixed ancestry. Determinants of vitamin D deficiency were examined by logistic regression.

RESULTS

The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was highest among participants of Asian ancestry (57.2% in winter/spring and 50.8% in summer/autumn) followed by those of Black African ancestry (38.5% and 30.8%, respectively), mixed (36.5%, 22.5%), Chinese (33.1%, 20.7%) and White European ancestry (17.5%, 5.9%). Participants with higher socioeconomic deprivation were more likely to have 25(OH)D deficiency compared to less deprived participants (P = <1 × 10^-300); this pattern was more apparent among those of White European ancestry and in summer (P_interaction ≤6.4 × 10^-5 for both). In fully-adjusted analyses, regular consumption of oily fish was associated with reduced odds of vitamin D deficiency across all ethnicities, while outdoor-time in summer was less effective for Black Africans (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70, 1.12) than White Europeans (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.38, 0.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe vitamin D deficiency remains an issue throughout the UK, particularly in lower socioeconomic areas. In some groups, levels of deficiency are alarmingly high with one-half of Asian and one-third of Black African ancestry populations affected across seasons.

KEY MESSAGES

The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in the UK is alarming, with certain ethnic and socioeconomic groups considered particularly vulnerable.

Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?

BACKGROUND

The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public.

METHODS

We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations.

RESULTS

Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of -5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to -0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are -0.25, -0.20 and -3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK.

CONCLUSION

Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to 'build back better'.

Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?

BACKGROUND

The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public.

METHODS

We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations.

RESULTS

Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of -5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to -0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are -0.25, -0.20 and -3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK.

CONCLUSION

Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to 'build back better'.

Analysis of age-sex and deprivation stratified trends in assault deaths in Scotland (1974-2015) to identify age, period or cohort effects

OBJECTIVES

Mortality rates in Scotland are higher, and health inequalities are greater, than in the rest of Western and Central Europe. There was a marked divergence during the 1980s and 1990s in the Scottish rates partly due to rises in alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and deaths by assault. This study examines whether age, period or cohort effects account for the trends in death by assault in Scotland and any sex or deprivation inequalities in these.

DESIGN

We calculated crude and age-standardised mortality rates for deaths by assault for Scottish men and women from 1974 to 2015 for the population overall and for populations stratified by Carstairs area of deprivation. We examined age-sex stratified trends to identify obvious age-period-cohort effects.

SETTING

This study was conducted in Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women whose registered death by the International Classification of Diseases was due to assault from 1974 to 2015 (n=3936) were included in this study.

RESULTS

Whereas age-standardised mortality rates from this cause fell gradually for women since 1974, for men they increased in the early 1990s and remained higher until around 2006, before falling. Death by assault was substantially more common among men aged around 15-50 years and in the most deprived areas. There was little change in the age groups most impacted over time, which made cohort effects unlikely. A period effect for the 15 years until 2006, with a consistent age-sex-area deprivation patterning, was evident.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality due to assault in Scotland is unequally felt, with young men living in the most deprived areas suffering the highest rates. There is a 15-year period effect up until 2006, impacting on young men as an age-period interaction, with no obvious cohort effects. Exploration of the demographics of criminological data may identify age, period or cohort effects among perpetrators of assault.

The increasing lifespan variation gradient by area-level deprivation: A decomposition analysis of Scotland 1981-2011

Life expectancy inequalities are an established indicator of health inequalities. More recent attention has been given to lifespan variation, which measures the amount of heterogeneity in age at death across all individuals in a population. International studies have documented diverging socioeconomic trends in lifespan variation using individual level measures of income, education and occupation. Despite using different socioeconomic indicators and different indices of lifespan variation, studies reached the same conclusion: the most deprived experience the lowest life expectancy and highest lifespan variation, a double burden of mortality inequality. A finding of even greater concern is that relative differences in lifespan variation between socioeconomic group were growing at a faster rate than life expectancy differences. The magnitude of lifespan variation inequalities by area-level deprivation has received limited attention. Area-level measures of deprivation are actively used by governments for allocating resources to tackle health inequalities. Establishing if the same lifespan variation inequalities emerge for area-level deprivation will help to better inform governments about which dimension of mortality inequality should be targeted. We measure lifespan variation trends (1981-2011) stratified by an area-level measure of socioeconomic deprivation that is applicable to the entire population of Scotland, the country with the highest level of variation and one of the longest, sustained stagnating trends in Western Europe. We measure the gradient in variation using the slope and relative indices of inequality. The deprivation, age and cause specific components driving the increasing gradient are identified by decomposing the change in the slope index between 1981 and 2011. Our results support the finding that the most advantaged are dying within an ever narrower age range while the most deprived are facing greater and increasing uncertainty. The least deprived group show an increasing advantage, over the national average, in terms of deaths from circulatory disease and external causes.

Theorising social class and its application to the study of health inequalities

The literature on health inequalities often uses measures of socio-economic position pragmatically to rank the population to describe inequalities in health rather than to understand social and economic relationships between groups. Theoretical considerations about the meaning of different measures, the social processes they describe, and how these might link to health are often limited. This paper builds upon Wright's synthesis of social class theories to propose a new integrated model for understanding social class as applied to health. This model incorporates several social class mechanisms: social background and early years' circumstances; Bourdieu's habitus and distinction; social closure and opportunity hoarding; Marxist conflict over production (domination and exploitation); and Weberian conflict over distribution. The importance of discrimination and prejudice in determining the opportunities for groups is also explicitly recognised, as is the relationship with health behaviours. In linking the different social class processes we have created an integrated theory of how and why social class causes inequalities in health. Further work is required to test this approach, to promote greater understanding of researchers of the social processes underlying different measures, and to understand how better and more comprehensive data on the range of social class processes these might be collected in the future.

Does ethnic diversity explain intra-UK variation in mortality? A longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVES

It has been proposed that part of the explanation for higher mortality in Scotland compared with England and Wales, and Glasgow compared with other UK cities, relates to greater ethnic diversity in England and Wales. We sought to assess the extent to which this excess was attenuated by adjusting for ethnicity. We additionally explored the role of country of birth in any observed differences.

SETTING

Scotland and England and Wales; Glasgow and Manchester.

PARTICIPANTS

We used the Scottish Longitudinal Study and the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales (2001-2010). Participants (362 491 in total) were aged 35-74 years at baseline.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk of all-cause mortality between 35 and 74 years old in Scotland and England and Wales, and in Glasgow and Manchester, adjusting for age, gender, socioeconomic position (SEP), ethnicity and country of birth.

RESULTS

18% of the Manchester sample was non-White compared with 3% in Glasgow (England and Wales: 10.4%; Scotland: 1.2%). The mortality incidence rate ratio was 1.33 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.56) in Glasgow compared with Manchester. This reduced to 1.25 (1.07 to 1.47) adjusting for SEP, and to 1.20 (1.02 to 1.42) adjusting for ethnicity and country of birth. For Scotland versus England and Wales, the corresponding figures were 18% higher mortality, reducing to 10%, and then 7%. Non-Whites born outside the UK had lower mortality. In the Scottish samples only, non-Whites born in the UK had significantly higher mortality than Whites born in the UK.

CONCLUSIONS

The research supports the hypothesis that ethnic diversity and migration from outside UK play a role in explaining Scottish excess mortality. In Glasgow especially, however, a large excess remains: thus, previously articulated policy implications (addressing poverty, vulnerability and inequality) still apply.

Changing contribution of area-level deprivation to total variance in age at death: a population-based decomposition analysis

OBJECTIVES

Two processes generate total variance in age at death: heterogeneity (between-group variance) and individual stochasticity (within-group variance). Limited research has evaluated how these two components have changed over time. We quantify the degree to which area-level deprivation contributed to total variance in age at death in Scotland between 1981 and 2011.

DESIGN

Full population and mortality data for Scotland were obtained and matched with the Carstairs score, a standardised z-score calculated for each part-postcode sector that measures relative area-level deprivation. A z-score above zero indicates that the part-postcode sector experienced higher deprivation than the national average. A z-score below zero indicates lower deprivation. From the aggregated data we constructed 40 lifetables, one for each deprivation quintile in 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 stratified by sex.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Total variance in age at death and the proportion explained by area-level deprivation heterogeneity (between-group variance).

RESULTS

The most deprived areas experienced stagnating or slightly increasing variance in age at death. The least deprived areas experienced decreasing variance. For males, the most deprived quintile life expectancy was between 7% and 11% lower and the SD is between 6% and 25% higher than the least deprived. This suggests that the effect of deprivation on the SD of longevity is comparable to its effect on life expectancy. Decomposition analysis revealed that contributions from between-group variance doubled between 1981 and 2011 but at most only explained 4% of total variance.

CONCLUSIONS

This study adds to the emerging body of literature demonstrating that socio-economic groups have experienced diverging trends in variance in age at death. The contribution from area-level deprivation to total variance in age at death, which we were able to capture, has doubled since 1981. Area-level deprivation may play an increasingly important role in mortality inequalities.

Changing labour market conditions during the 'great recession' and mental health in Scotland 2007-2011: an example using the Scottish Longitudinal Study and data for local areas in Scotland

This paper reports research exploring how trends in local labour market conditions during the period 2007-2011 (early stages of the 'great recession') relate to reported mental illness for individuals. It contributes to research on spatio-temporal variation in the wider determinants of health, exploring how the lifecourse of places relates to socio-geographical inequalities in health outcomes for individuals. This study also contributes to the renewed research focus on the links between labour market trends and population health, prompted by the recent global economic recession. We report research using the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS), a 5.3% representative sample of the Scottish population, derived from census data (https://sls.lscs.ac.uk/). In Scotland, (2011) census data include self-reported mental health. SLS data were combined with non-disclosive information from other sources, including spatio-temporal trends in labour market conditions (calculated using trajectory modelling) in the 32 local authority areas in Scotland. We show that, for groups of local authorities in Scotland over the period 2007-2011, trends in employment varied. These geographically variable trends in employment rates were associated with inequalities in self-reported mental health across the country, after controlling for a number of other individual and neighbourhood risk factors. For residents of regions that had experienced relatively high and stable levels of employment the odds ratio for reporting a mental illness was significantly lower than for the 'reference group', living in areas with persistently low employment rates. In areas where employment declined markedly from higher levels, the odds ratio was similar to the reference group. The findings emphasise how changes in local economic conditions may influence people's health and wellbeing independently of their own employment status. We conclude that, during the recent recession, the economic life course of places across Scotland has been associated with individual mental health outcomes.

Drug-related deaths in Scotland 1979-2013: evidence of a vulnerable cohort of young men living in deprived areas

BACKGROUND

Even after accounting for deprivation, mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to the rest of Western Europe. Higher mortality from alcohol- and drug-related deaths (DRDs), violence and suicide (particularly in young adults) contribute to this 'excess' mortality. Age-period and cohort effects help explain the trends in alcohol-related deaths and suicide, respectively. This study investigated whether age, period or cohort effects might explain recent trends in DRDs in Scotland and relate to exposure to the changing political context from the 1980s.

METHODS

We analysed data on DRDs from 1979 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects.

RESULTS

The peak age for DRDs fell around 1990, especially for males as rates increased for those aged 18 to 45 years. There was evidence of a cohort effect, especially among males living in the most deprived areas; those born between 1960 and 1980 had an increased risk of DRD, highest for those born 1970 to 1975. The cohort effect started around a decade earlier in the most deprived areas compared to the rest of the population.

CONCLUSION

Age-standardised rates for DRDs among young adults rose during the 1990s in Scotland due to an increased risk of DRD for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially for males living in the most deprived areas. This cohort effect is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to the changing social, economic and political contexts of the 1980s created a delayed negative health impact.

The limits to equivalent living conditions: regional disparities in premature mortality in Germany

Aim

Despite the country's explicit political goal to establish equivalent living conditions across Germany, significant inequality continues to exist. We argue that premature mortality is an excellent proxy variable for testing the claim of equivalent living conditions since the root causes of premature death are socioeconomic.

Subject and methods

We analyse variation in premature mortality across Germany's 402 districts and cities in 2014.

Results

Premature mortality spatially clusters among geographically contiguous and proximate districts/cities and is higher in more urban places as well as in districts/cities located further north and in former East Germany. We demonstrate that, first, socioeconomic factors account for 62% of the cross-sectional variation in years of potential life lost and 70% of the variation in the premature mortality rate. Second, we show that these socioeconomic factors either entirely or almost fully eliminate the systematic spatial patterns that exist in premature mortality.

Conclusion

On its own, fiscal redistribution, the centrepiece of how Germany aspires to establish its political goal, cannot generate equivalent living conditions in the absence of a comprehensive set of economic and social policies at all levels of political administration, tackling the disparities in socioeconomic factors that collectively result in highly unequal living conditions.

Patterns of mortality by occupation in the UK, 1991-2011: a comparative analysis of linked census and mortality records

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality by occupation are scarce. We aimed to assess mortality by occupation in the UK, differences in rates between England and Wales and Scotland, and changes over time in Scotland.

METHODS

We analysed adults of working age (20-59 years) using linked census and death records. Main occupation was coded into more than 60 groups in the 2001 census, with mortality follow-up until Dec 31, 2011. Comparable occupation data were available for Scotland in 1991, allowing assessment of trends over time. We calculated age-standardised all-cause mortality rates (per 100 000 person-years), stratified by sex. We used Monte Carlo simulation to derive p values and 95% CIs for the difference in mortality over time and between England and Wales and Scotland.

FINDINGS

During 4·51 million person-years of follow-up, mortality rates by occupation differed by more than three times between the lowest and highest observed rates in both men and women. Among men in England and Wales, health professionals had the lowest mortality (225 deaths per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 145-304]), with low rates also shown in managers and teachers. The highest mortality rates were in elementary construction (701 deaths per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 593-809]), and housekeeping and factory workers. Among women, teachers and business professionals had low mortality, and factory workers and garment trade workers had high rates. Mortality rates have generally fallen, but have stagnated or even increased among women in some occupations, such as cleaners (337 deaths per 100 000 person years [95% CI 292-382] in 1991, rising to 426 deaths per 100 000 person years in 2001 [371-481]). Findings from simulation models suggested that if mortality rates by occupation in England and Wales applied to Scotland, 631 fewer men (95% CI 285-979; a 9·7% decrease) and 273 fewer women (26-513; 6·7% decrease) of working age would die in Scotland every year. Excess deaths in Scotland were concentrated among lower skilled occupations (eg, female cleaners).

INTERPRETATION

Mortality rates differ greatly by occupation. The excess mortality in Scotland is concentrated among low-skilled workers and, although mortality has improved in men and women in most occupational groups, some groups have experienced increased rates. Future research investigating the specific causes of death at the detailed occupational level will be valuable, particularly with a view to understanding the health implications of precarious employment and the need to improve working conditions in very specific occupational groups.

FUNDING

None.

Two tales of cardiovascular risksmiddle-aged women living in Sweden and Scotland: a cross-sectional comparative study

OBJECTIVES

To compare cardiovascular risk factors as well as rates of cardiovascular diseases in middle-aged women from urban areas in Scotland and Sweden.

DESIGN

Comparative cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Data from the general population in urban areas of Scotland and the general population in two major Swedish cities in southeast Sweden, south of Stockholm.

PARTICIPANTS

Comparable data of middle-aged women (40-65 years) from the Scottish Health Survey (n=6250) and the Swedish QWIN study (n=741) were merged together into a new dataset (n=6991 participants).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We compared middle-aged women in urban areas in Sweden and Scotland regarding risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD diagnosis, anthropometrics, psychological distress and lifestyle.

RESULTS

In almost all measurements, there were significant differences between the countries, favouring the Swedish women. Scottish women demonstrated a higher frequency of alcohol consumption, smoking, obesity, low vegetable consumption, a sedentary lifestyle and also more psychological distress. For doctor-diagnosed coronary heart disease, there were also significant differences, with a higher prevalence among the Scottish women.

CONCLUSIONS

This is one of the first studies that clearly shows that Scottish middle-aged women are particularly affected by a worse profile of CVD risks. The profound differences in CVD risk and outcome frequency in the two populations are likely to have arisen from differences in the two groups of women's social, cultural, political and economic environments.

How do trends in mortality inequalities by deprivation and education in Scotland and England & Wales compare? A repeat cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the trends in mortality inequalities by educational attainment with trends using area deprivation.

SETTING

Scotland and England & Wales (E&W).

PARTICIPANTS

All people resident in Scotland and E&W between 1981 and 2011 aged 35-79 years.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Absolute inequalities (measured using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII)) and relative inequalities (measured using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII)) in all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Relative inequalities in mortality by area deprivation have consistently increased for men and women in Scotland and E&W between 1981-1983 and 2010-2012. Absolute inequalities increased for men and women in Scotland, and for women in E&W, between 1981-1983 and 2000-2002 before subsequently falling. For men in E&W, absolute inequalities were more stable until 2000-2002 before a subsequent decline. Both absolute and relative inequalities were consistently higher in men and in Scotland. These trends contrast markedly with the reported declines in mortality inequalities by educational attainment and apparent improvement of Scotland's inequalities with those in E&W.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in health inequalities differ when assessed using different measures of socioeconomic status, reflecting either genuinely variable trends in relation to different aspects of social stratification or varying error or bias. There are particular issues with the educational attainment data in Great Britain prior to 2001 that make these education-based estimates less certain.

History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow

OBJECTIVES

High levels of excess mortality (i.e. that not explained by deprivation) have been observed for Scotland compared with England & Wales, and especially for Glasgow in comparison with similar post-industrial cities such as Liverpool and Manchester. Many potential explanations have been suggested. Based on an assessment of these, the aim was to develop an understanding of the most likely underlying causes. Note that this paper distils a larger research report, with the aim of reaching wider audiences beyond Scotland, as the important lessons learnt are relevant to other populations.

STUDY DESIGN

Review and dialectical synthesis of evidence.

METHODS

Forty hypotheses were examined, including those identified from a systematic review. The relevance of each was assessed by means of Bradford Hill's criteria for causality alongside-for hypotheses deemed causally linked to mortality-comparisons of exposures between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, and between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. Where gaps in the evidence base were identified, new research was undertaken. Causal chains of relevant hypotheses were created, each tested in terms of its ability to explain the many different aspects of excess mortality. The models were further tested with key informants from public health and other disciplines.

RESULTS

In Glasgow's case, the city was made more vulnerable to important socioeconomic (deprivation, deindustrialisation) and political (detrimental economic and social policies) exposures, resulting in worse outcomes. This vulnerability was generated by a series of historical factors, processes and decisions: the lagged effects of historical overcrowding; post-war regional policy including the socially selective relocation of population to outside the city; more detrimental processes of urban change which impacted on living conditions; and differences in local government responses to UK government policy in the 1980s which both impacted in negative terms in Glasgow and also conferred protective effects on comparator cities. Further resulting protective factors were identified (e.g. greater 'social capital' in Liverpool) which placed Glasgow at a further relative disadvantage. Other contributory factors were highlighted, including the inadequate measurement of deprivation. A similar 'explanatory model' resulted for Scotland as a whole. This included: the components of the Glasgow model, given their impact on nationally measured outcomes; inadequate measurement of deprivation; the lagged effects of deprivation (in particular higher levels of overcrowding historically); and additional key vulnerabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The work has helped to further understanding of the underlying causes of Glasgow's and Scotland's high levels of excess mortality. The implications for policy include the need to address three issues simultaneously: to protect against key exposures (e.g. poverty) which impact detrimentally across all parts of the UK; to address the existing consequences of Glasgow's and Scotland's vulnerability; and to mitigate against the effects of future vulnerabilities which are likely to emerge from policy responses to contemporary problems which fail sufficiently to consider and to prevent long-term, unintended social consequences.

Do differences in religious affiliation explain high levels of excess mortality in the UK?

BACKGROUND

High levels of mortality not explained by differences in socioeconomic status (SES) have been observed for Scotland and its largest city, Glasgow, compared with elsewhere in the UK. Previous cross-sectional research highlighted potentially relevant differences in social capital, including religious social capital (the benefits of social participation in organised religion). The aim of this study was to use longitudinal data to assess whether religious affiliation (as measured in UK censuses) attenuated the high levels of Scottish excess mortality.

METHODS

The study used the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) and the ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales. Risk of all-cause mortality (2001-2010) was compared between residents aged 35 and 74 years of Scotland and England and Wales, and between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, using Poisson regression. Models adjusted for age, gender, SES and religious affiliation. Similar country-based analyses were undertaken for suicide.

RESULTS

After adjustment for age, gender and SES, all-cause mortality was 9% higher in Scotland than in England and Wales, and 27% higher in Glasgow than in Liverpool or Manchester. Religious affiliation was notably lower across Scotland; but, its inclusion in the models did not attenuate the level of Scottish excess all-cause mortality, and only marginally lowered the differences in risk of suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in religious affiliation do not explain the higher mortality rates in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK. However, it is possible that other aspects of religion such as religiosity or religious participation which were not assessed here may still be important.

Is there a link between childhood adversity, attachment style and Scotland's excess mortality? Evidence, challenges and potential research

Background

Scotland has a persistently high mortality rate that is not solely due to the effects of socio-economic deprivation. This “excess” mortality is observed across the entire country, but is greatest in and around the post-industrial conurbation of West Central Scotland. Despite systematic investigation, the causes of the excess mortality remain the subject of ongoing debate.

Discussion

Attachment processes are a fundamental part of human development, and have a profound influence on adult personality and behaviour, especially in response to stressors. Many studies have also shown that childhood adversity is correlated with adult morbidity and mortality.

The interplay between childhood adversity and attachment is complex and not fully elucidated, but will include socio-economic, intergenerational and psychological factors. Importantly, some adverse health outcomes for parents (such as problem substance use or suicide) will simultaneously act as risk factors for their children.

Data show that some forms of “household dysfunction” relating to childhood adversity are more prevalent in Scotland: such problems include parental problem substance use, rates of imprisonment, rates of suicide and rates of children being taken into care. However other measures of childhood or family wellbeing have not been found to be substantially different in Scotland compared to England.

Summary

We suggest in this paper that the role of childhood adversity and attachment experience merits further investigation as a plausible mechanism influencing health in Scotland. A model is proposed which sets out some of the interactions between the factors of interest, and we propose parameters for the types of study which would be required to evaluate the validity of the model.