1
|
Näher AF, Schulte-Althoff M, Kopka M, Balzer F, Pozo-Martin F. Effects of Face Mask Mandates on COVID-19 Transmission in 51 Countries: Retrospective Event Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e49307. [PMID: 38457225 PMCID: PMC10926949 DOI: 10.2196/49307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/22/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The question of the utility of face masks in preventing acute respiratory infections has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given the inconclusive evidence from existing randomized controlled trials, evidence based on real-world data with high external validity is missing. OBJECTIVE To add real-world evidence, this study aims to examine whether mask mandates in 51 countries and mask recommendations in 10 countries increased self-reported face mask use and reduced SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers and COVID-19 case growth rates. METHODS We applied an event study approach to data pooled from four sources: (1) country-level information on self-reported mask use was obtained from the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, (2) data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker provided information on face mask mandates and recommendations and any other nonpharmacological interventions implemented, (3) mobility indicators from Google's Community Mobility Reports were also included, and (4) SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers and COVID-19 case growth rates were retrieved from the Our World in Data-COVID-19 data set. RESULTS Mandates increased mask use by 8.81 percentage points (P=.006) on average, and SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers declined on average by -0.31 units (P=.008). Although no significant average effect of mask mandates was observed for growth rates of COVID-19 cases (-0.98 percentage points; P=.56), the results indicate incremental effects on days 26 (-1.76 percentage points; P=.04), 27 (-1.89 percentage points; P=.05), 29 (-1.78 percentage points; P=.04), and 30 (-2.14 percentage points; P=.02) after mandate implementation. For self-reported face mask use and reproduction numbers, incremental effects are seen 6 and 13 days after mandate implementation. Both incremental effects persist for >30 days. Furthermore, mask recommendations increased self-reported mask use on average (5.84 percentage points; P<.001). However, there were no effects of recommendations on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers or COVID-19 case growth rates (-0.06 units; P=.70 and -2.45 percentage points; P=.59). Single incremental effects on self-reported mask use were observed on days 11 (3.96 percentage points; P=.04), 13 (3.77 percentage points; P=.04) and 25 to 27 (4.20 percentage points; P=.048 and 5.91 percentage points; P=.01) after recommendation. Recommendations also affected reproduction numbers on days 0 (-0.07 units; P=.03) and 1 (-0.07 units; P=.03) and between days 21 (-0.09 units; P=.04) and 28 (-0.11 units; P=.05) and case growth rates between days 1 and 4 (-1.60 percentage points; P=.03 and -2.19 percentage points; P=.03) and on day 23 (-2.83 percentage points; P=.05) after publication. CONCLUSIONS Contrary to recommendations, mask mandates can be used as an effective measure to reduce SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers. However, mandates alone are not sufficient to reduce growth rates of COVID-19 cases. Our study adds external validity to the existing randomized controlled trials on the effectiveness of face masks to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anatol-Fiete Näher
- Digital Global Public Health, Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Charité - Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
- Method Development, Research Infrastructure, and Information Technology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Matthias Schulte-Althoff
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Charité - Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Information Systems, School of Business and Economics, Freie Universität, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marvin Kopka
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Charité - Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Psychology and Ergonomics, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Felix Balzer
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Charité - Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Francisco Pozo-Martin
- Evidence-based Public Health Unit, Center for International Health Protection, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Galgamuwa LS, Liyanawahunge NM, Ratnayake CG, Hakmanage NM, Aslam F, Dharmaratne SD. Spatial distribution of COVID-19 patients in Sri Lanka. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1755. [PMID: 37689685 PMCID: PMC10492325 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16481-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A new type of viral pneumonia, which has been named Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and has spread across the world since then. It has claimed more than 370 million confirmed cases and over 5.6 million deaths have been reported globally by the end of January 2022. This study aimed to analyze the trends, highly-nuanced patterns, and related key results relative to COVID-19 epidemiology in Sri Lanka. METHODS Data on COVID-19 from March 2020 to January 2022 were obtained from published databases maintained by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health in Sri Lanka and information regarding populations in administrative districts was obtained from the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. Descriptive spatiotemporal analysis and autocorrelations were analyzed using SPSS statistical software. RESULTS In Sri Lanka, the first case of COVID-19 was a Chinese national and the first local case was identified in the second week of March. As of 31st of January 2022, a total of 610,103 COVID-19 cases had been recorded in the country, and 15,420 patients had died. At the beginning, the disease was mainly concentrated in the Western province and with time, it spread to other provinces. However, very low numbers of patients were identified in the North, Eastern, North Central, and Uva provinces until April 2021. The peak of COVID-19 occurred in August and September 2021 in all provinces in Sri Lanka. Then a decreasing trend of COVID-19 cases showed after September 2021. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 is an emerging public health problem in Western and Southern Sri Lanka where the population density is high. A decreasing trend of COVID-19 cases showed in all provinces after September 2021. Public awareness programs for the prevention and control of the disease in endemic regions are essential to reduce the incidence of this infection.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lahiru Sandaruwan Galgamuwa
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka, Ratnapura, Sri Lanka.
| | | | | | - Navodi Mekala Hakmanage
- Department of Statistics & Computer Science, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, 11600, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Samath D Dharmaratne
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, 20400, Sri Lanka
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Box 357230, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Chu AM, Chong ACY, Lai NHT, Tiwari A, So MKP. Enhancing the Predictive Power of Google Trends Data Through Network Analysis: Infodemiology Study of COVID-19. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023; 9:e42446. [PMID: 37676701 PMCID: PMC10488898 DOI: 10.2196/42446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2022] [Revised: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 outbreak has revealed a high demand for timely surveillance of pandemic developments. Google Trends (GT), which provides freely available search volume data, has been proven to be a reliable forecast and nowcast measure for public health issues. Previous studies have tended to use relative search volumes from GT directly to analyze associations and predict the progression of pandemic. However, GT's normalization of the search volumes data and data retrieval restrictions affect the data resolution in reflecting the actual search behaviors, thus limiting the potential for using GT data to predict disease outbreaks. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to introduce a merged algorithm that helps recover the resolution and accuracy of the search volume data extracted from GT over long observation periods. In addition, this study also aimed to demonstrate the extended application of merged search volumes (MSVs) in combination of network analysis, via tracking the COVID-19 pandemic risk. METHODS We collected relative search volumes from GT and transformed them into MSVs using our proposed merged algorithm. The MSVs of the selected coronavirus-related keywords were compiled using the rolling window method. The correlations between the MSVs were calculated to form a dynamic network. The network statistics, including network density and the global clustering coefficients between the MSVs, were also calculated. RESULTS Our research findings suggested that although GT restricts the search data retrieval into weekly data points over a long period, our proposed approach could recover the daily search volume over the same investigation period to facilitate subsequent research analyses. In addition, the dynamic time warping diagrams show that the dynamic networks were capable of predicting the COVID-19 pandemic trends, in terms of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and severity risk scores. CONCLUSIONS The innovative method for handling GT search data and the application of MSVs and network analysis to broaden the potential for GT data are useful for predicting the pandemic risk. Further investigation of the GT dynamic network can focus on noncommunicable diseases, health-related behaviors, and misinformation on the internet.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Amanda My Chu
- Department of Social Sciences and Policy Studies, The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Andy C Y Chong
- School of Nursing, Tung Wah College, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Nick H T Lai
- Department of Information Systems, Business Statistics and Operations Management, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Agnes Tiwari
- School of Nursing, Hong Kong Sanatorium & Hospital, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Mike K P So
- Department of Information Systems, Business Statistics and Operations Management, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Desta BN, Ota S, Gournis E, Pires SM, Greer AL, Dodd W, Majowicz SE. Estimating the Under-ascertainment of COVID-19 cases in Toronto, Ontario, March to May 2020. J Public Health Res 2023; 12:22799036231174133. [PMID: 37197719 PMCID: PMC10184215 DOI: 10.1177/22799036231174133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 04/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Public health surveillance data do not always capture all cases, due in part to test availability and health care seeking behaviour. Our study aimed to estimate under-ascertainment multipliers for each step in the reporting chain for COVID-19 in Toronto, Canada. Design and methods We applied stochastic modeling to estimate these proportions for the period from March 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic) through to May 23, 2020, and for three distinct windows with different laboratory testing criteria within this period. Results For each laboratory-confirmed symptomatic case reported to Toronto Public Health during the entire period, the estimated number of COVID-19 infections in the community was 18 (5th and 95th percentile: 12, 29). The factor most associated with under-reporting was the proportion of those who sought care that received a test. Conclusions Public health officials should use improved estimates to better understand the burden of COVID-19 and other similar infections.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Binyam N Desta
- School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
- Binyam N Desta, School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
| | - Sylvia Ota
- Toronto Public Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Sara M Pires
- Risk-Benefit Research Group, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Amy L Greer
- Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Warren Dodd
- School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Shannon E Majowicz
- School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Yu S, Hsueh L. Do wildfires exacerbate COVID-19 infections and deaths in vulnerable communities? Evidence from California. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 328:116918. [PMID: 36529003 PMCID: PMC9705198 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2022] [Revised: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 11/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Understanding whether and how wildfires exacerbate COVID-19 outcomes is important for assessing the efficacy and design of public sector responses in an age of more frequent and simultaneous natural disasters and extreme events. Drawing on environmental and emergency management literatures, we investigate how wildfire smoke (PM2.5) impacted COVID-19 infections and deaths during California's 2020 wildfire season and how public housing resources and hospital capacity moderated wildfires' effects on COVID-19 outcomes. We also hypothesize and empirically assess the differential impact of wildfire smoke on COVID-19 infections and deaths in counties exhibiting high and low social vulnerability. To test our hypotheses concerning wildfire severity and its disproportionate impact on COVID-19 outcomes in socially vulnerable communities, we construct a county-by-day panel dataset for the period April 1 to November 30, 2020, in California, drawing on publicly available state and federal data sources. This study's empirical results, based on panel fixed effects models, show that wildfire smoke is significantly associated with increases in COVID-19 infections and deaths. Moreover, wildfires exacerbated COVID-19 outcomes by depleting the already scarce hospital and public housing resources in local communities. Conversely, when wildfire smoke doubled, a one percent increase in the availability of hospital and public housing resources was associated with a 2 to 7 percent decline in COVID-19 infections and deaths. For California communities exhibiting high social vulnerability, the occurrence of wildfires worsened COVID-19 outcomes. Sensitivity analyses based on an alternative sample size and different measures of social vulnerability validate this study's main findings. An implication of this study for policymakers is that communities exhibiting high social vulnerability will greatly benefit from local government policies that promote social equity in housing and healthcare before, during, and after disasters.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Suyang Yu
- School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University, 411 N Central Ave Suite 400, Phoenix, AZ, 85004, USA.
| | - Lily Hsueh
- School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University, 411 N Central Ave Suite 400, Phoenix, AZ, 85004, USA; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Schmitz T, Lakes T, Manafa G, Lambio C, Butler J, Roth A, Savaskan N. Exploration of the COVID-19 pandemic at the neighborhood level in an intra-urban setting. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1128452. [PMID: 37124802 PMCID: PMC10133460 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1128452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/02/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic represents a worldwide threat to health. Since its onset in 2019, the pandemic has proceeded in different phases, which have been shaped by a complex set of influencing factors, including public health and social measures, the emergence of new virus variants, and seasonality. Understanding the development of COVID-19 incidence and its spatiotemporal patterns at a neighborhood level is crucial for local health authorities to identify high-risk areas and develop tailored mitigation strategies. However, analyses at the neighborhood level are scarce and mostly limited to specific phases of the pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the development of COVID-19 incidence and spatiotemporal patterns of incidence at a neighborhood scale in an intra-urban setting over several pandemic phases (March 2020-December 2021). We used reported COVID-19 case data from the health department of the district Berlin-Neukölln, Germany, additional socio-demographic data, and text documents and materials on implemented public health and social measures. We examined incidence over time in the context of the measures and other influencing factors, with a particular focus on age groups. We used incidence maps and spatial scan statistics to reveal changing spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that several factors may have influenced the development of COVID-19 incidence. In particular, the far-reaching measures for contact reduction showed a substantial impact on incidence in Neukölln. We observed several age group-specific effects: school closures had an effect on incidence in the younger population (< 18 years), whereas the start of the vaccination campaign had an impact primarily on incidence among the elderly (> 65 years). The spatial analysis revealed that high-risk areas were heterogeneously distributed across the district. The location of high-risk areas also changed across the pandemic phases. In this study, existing intra-urban studies were supplemented by our investigation of the course of the pandemic and the underlying processes at a small scale over a long period of time. Our findings provide new insights for public health authorities, community planners, and policymakers about the spatiotemporal development of the COVID-19 pandemic at the neighborhood level. These insights are crucial for guiding decision-makers in implementing mitigation strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tillman Schmitz
- Applied Geoinformation Science, Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- *Correspondence: Tillman Schmitz,
| | - Tobia Lakes
- Applied Geoinformation Science, Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Berlin, Germany
| | - Georgianna Manafa
- Applied Geoinformation Science, Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Christoph Lambio
- Applied Geoinformation Science, Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jeffrey Butler
- Applied Geoinformation Science, Geography Department, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Alexandra Roth
- Department of Public Health Neukölln, District Office Neukölln, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nicolai Savaskan
- Department of Public Health Neukölln, District Office Neukölln, Berlin, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Owokotomo OE, Manda S, Cleasen J, Kasim A, Sengupta R, Shome R, Subhra Paria S, Reddy T, Shkedy Z. Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data. Front Public Health 2023; 11:979230. [PMID: 36908419 PMCID: PMC9992730 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.979230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Identification and isolation of COVID-19 infected persons plays a significant role in the control of COVID-19 pandemic. A country's COVID-19 positive testing rate is useful in understanding and monitoring the disease transmission and spread for the planning of intervention policy. Using publicly available data collected between March 5th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021, we proposed to estimate both the positive testing rate and its daily rate of change in South Africa with a flexible semi-parametric smoothing model for discrete data. There was a gradual increase in the positive testing rate up to a first peak rate in July, 2020, then a decrease before another peak around mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2021. The proposed semi-parametric smoothing model provides a data driven estimates for both the positive testing rate and its change. We provide an online R dashboard that can be used to estimate the positive rate in any country of interest based on publicly available data. We believe this is a useful tool for both researchers and policymakers for planning intervention and understanding the COVID-19 spread.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Samuel Manda
- Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Jürgen Cleasen
- Center for Statistics, Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Adetayo Kasim
- Department of Anthropology, Durham Research Methods Centre, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
| | - Rudradev Sengupta
- The Janssen Pharmaceutical, Companies of Johnson & Johnson, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Rahul Shome
- Department of Computer Science, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States
| | - Soumya Subhra Paria
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
| | - Tarylee Reddy
- Biostatistics Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Capetown, South Africa
| | - Ziv Shkedy
- Center for Statistics, Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Kevrekidis GA, Rapti Z, Drossinos Y, Kevrekidis PG, Barmann MA, Chen QY, Cuevas-Maraver J. Backcasting COVID-19: a physics-informed estimate for early case incidence. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:220329. [PMID: 36533196 PMCID: PMC9748501 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian process regression to estimate the number of cases during the first 2020 wave based on the second wave of the epidemic in several European countries, South Korea and Brazil. We assume that the second wave was more accurately monitored, even though we acknowledge that behavioural changes occurred during the pandemic and region- (or country-) specific monitoring protocols evolved. We then construct a manifold diffeomorphic to that of the implied original dynamical system, using fatalities or hospitalizations only. Finally, we restrict the diffeomorphism to the reported cases coordinate of the dynamical system. Our main finding is that in the European countries studied, the actual cases are under-reported by as much as 50%. On the other hand, in South Korea-which had a proactive mitigation approach-a far smaller discrepancy between the actual and reported cases is predicted, with an approximately 18% predicted underestimation. We believe that our backcasting framework is applicable to other epidemic outbreaks where (due to limited or poor quality data) there is uncertainty around the actual cases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- G. A. Kevrekidis
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - Z. Rapti
- Department of Mathematics and Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61820, USA
| | - Y. Drossinos
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
| | - P. G. Kevrekidis
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - M. A. Barmann
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - Q. Y. Chen
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - J. Cuevas-Maraver
- Grupo de Física No Lineal, Departamento de Física Aplicada I, Universidad de Sevilla. Escuela Politécnica Superior, C/ Virgen de África, 7, 41012 Sevilla, Spain
- Instituto de Matemáticas de la Universidad de Sevilla (IMUS). Edificio Celestino Mutis. Avda. Reina Mercedes s/n, 41012 Sevilla, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Teh YW, Elesedy B, He B, Hutchinson M, Zaidi S, Bhoopchand A, Paquet U, Tomasev N, Read J, Diggle PJ. Efficient Bayesian inference of instantaneous reproduction numbers at fine spatial scales, with an application to mapping and nowcasting the Covid-19 epidemic in British local authorities. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY. SERIES A, (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY) 2022; 185:S65-S85. [PMID: 38607892 PMCID: PMC9877716 DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Yee Whye Teh
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Bryn Elesedy
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Bobby He
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | | | - Avishkar Bhoopchand
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of Oxford, seconded from DeepMindOxfordUK
| | - Ulrich Paquet
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of Oxford, seconded from DeepMindOxfordUK
| | - Nenad Tomasev
- Department of StatisticsUniversity of Oxford, seconded from DeepMindOxfordUK
| | - Jonathan Read
- CHICAS, Lancaster Medical SchoolLancaster UniversityLancasterUK
| | - Peter J. Diggle
- CHICAS, Lancaster Medical SchoolLancaster UniversityLancasterUK
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
HONFO SEWANOUH, TABOE HEMAHOB, KAKAÏ ROMAINGLELE. Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the sixteen West African countries. SCIENTIFIC AFRICAN 2022; 18:e01408. [PMCID: PMC9621612 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2020] [Revised: 11/27/2021] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The current COVID-19 pandemic has caused several damages to the world, especially in public health sector. This study considered a simple deterministic SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model to characterize and predict future course of the pandemic in the West African countries. We estimated specific characteristics of the disease’s dynamics such as its initial conditions, reproduction numbers, true peak, reported peak with their corresponding times, final epidemic size and time-varying attack ratio. Our findings revealed a relatively low proportion of susceptible individuals in the region and in the different countries (1.2 % across West Africa). The detection rate of the disease was also relatively low (0.9 % for West Africa as a whole) and <2 % for most countries, except for Gambia (12.5 %), Cape-Verde (9.5 %), Mauritania (5.9 %) and Ghana (4.4 %). The reproduction number varied between 1.15 (Burkina-Faso) and 4.45 (Niger) and the peak time of the pandemic was between June and July for most countries. Most generally, the peak time of reported cases came a week (7-8 days) after the true peak time. The model predicted 222,100 actual active cases in the region at peak time while the final epidemic size accounted for 0.6 % of the West African population (2,526,700 individuals). Results obtained showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has not severely affected West Africa as noticed in other regions of the world, but current control measures and standard operating procedures should be maintained over time to ensure trends observed and even accelerate the declining trend of the pandemic.
Collapse
|
11
|
Delamater PL, Woodul RL. NC-COVID: A Time-Varying Compartmental Model for Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics in North Carolina, US. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2022:2022.10.21.22281271. [PMID: 36324808 PMCID: PMC9628207 DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.21.22281271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Efforts to track and model SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in the population have been complicated by certain aspects of the transmission characteristics, which include a pre-symptomatic infectious phase as well as asymptomatic infectious individuals. Another problem is that many models focus on case count, as there has been (and is) limited data regarding infection status of members of the population, which is the most important aspect for constructing transmission models. This paper describes and explains the parameterization, calibration, and revision of the NC-COVID model, a compartmental model to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics for the state of North Carolina, US. The model was developed early in the pandemic to provide rapid, up-to-date state-level estimates of the number of people who were currently infected, were immune from a prior infection, and remained susceptible to infection. As a post modeling exercise, we assessed the veracity of the model by comparing its output to SARS-CoV-2 viral particle concentrations detected in wastewater data and to estimates of people infected using COVID-19 deaths. The NC-COVID model was highly correlated with these independently derived estimates, suggesting that it produced accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in North Carolina.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Rachel L. Woodul
- Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
De Giorgi G, Geldsetzer P, Michalik F, Speziali MM. The impact of face-mask mandates on all-cause mortality in Switzerland: a quasi-experimental study. Eur J Public Health 2022; 32:818-824. [PMID: 36087339 PMCID: PMC9527954 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckac123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Whereas there is strong evidence that wearing a face mask is effective in reducing the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), evidence on the impact of mandating the wearing of face masks on deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and all-cause mortality is more sparse and likely to vary by context. Focusing on a quasi-experimental setting in Switzerland, we aimed to determine (i) the effect of face-mask mandates for indoor public spaces on all-cause mortality; and (ii) how the effect has varied over time, and by age and sex. Methods Our analysis exploited the fact that between July and October 2020, nine cantons in Switzerland extended a face-mask mandate at different time points from being restricted to public transportation only to applying to all public indoor places. We used both a Difference-in-Differences approach with fixed-effects for canton and week and an event-study approach. Results In our main Difference-in-Differences model, the face-mask mandate was associated with a 0.3% reduction in all-cause mortality [95% confidence interval (CI): −3.4% to 2.7%; P = 0.818]. This null effect was confirmed in the event-study approach and a variety of robustness checks. Combining the face-mask mandate with social distancing rules led to an estimated 5.1% (95% CI: −7.9% to −2.4%; P = 0.001) reduction in all-cause mortality. Conclusions Mandating face-mask use in public indoor spaces in Switzerland in mid-to-late 2020 does not appear to have resulted in large reductions in all-cause mortality in the short term. There is some suggestion that combining face-mask mandates with social distancing rules reduced all-cause mortality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Giacomo De Giorgi
- Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva , Geneva 4, Switzerland
- BREAD, Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development , E Providence, RI, USA
- CEPR, Centre for Economic Policy Research , London, UK
- IPA, Innovations for Poverty Action , Washington, DC, USA
| | - Pascal Geldsetzer
- Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University , Stanford, CA, USA
- Chan Zuckerberg Biohub , San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Felix Michalik
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University , Heidelberg, Germany
| | - M Maddalena Speziali
- Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva , Geneva 4, Switzerland
- University Magna Graecia of Catanzaro , Catanzaro, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Li F. Disconnected in a pandemic: COVID-19 outcomes and the digital divide in the United States. Health Place 2022; 77:102867. [PMID: 35917634 PMCID: PMC9283607 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Revised: 07/10/2022] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated inequalities related to the digital divide. With wide adoption of remote working and learning, telehealth, and virtual events and social activities, the technology have-nots and know-nots experienced substantial marginalization and elevated risks of COVID-19 exposure in daily lives. This study discusses the pathways through which digital exclusion could aggravate the impacts of the pandemic and explored the linkage between digital access and COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. counties. It finds that counties with higher percentages of digitally excluded populations have seen higher COVID-19 case and death rates throughout the pandemic and lower vaccination rates by January 2022.
Collapse
|
14
|
Vegvari C, Abbott S, Ball F, Brooks-Pollock E, Challen R, Collyer BS, Dangerfield C, Gog JR, Gostic KM, Heffernan JM, Hollingsworth TD, Isham V, Kenah E, Mollison D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Roberts MG, Scalia Tomba G, Thompson RN, Trapman P. Commentary on the use of the reproduction number R during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stat Methods Med Res 2022; 31:1675-1685. [PMID: 34569883 PMCID: PMC9277711 DOI: 10.1177/09622802211037079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the reproduction number [Formula: see text] has become a popular epidemiological metric used to communicate the state of the epidemic. At its most basic, [Formula: see text] is defined as the average number of secondary infections caused by one primary infected individual. [Formula: see text] seems convenient, because the epidemic is expanding if [Formula: see text] and contracting if [Formula: see text]. The magnitude of [Formula: see text] indicates by how much transmission needs to be reduced to control the epidemic. Using [Formula: see text] in a naïve way can cause new problems. The reasons for this are threefold: (1) There is not just one definition of [Formula: see text] but many, and the precise definition of [Formula: see text] affects both its estimated value and how it should be interpreted. (2) Even with a particular clearly defined [Formula: see text], there may be different statistical methods used to estimate its value, and the choice of method will affect the estimate. (3) The availability and type of data used to estimate [Formula: see text] vary, and it is not always clear what data should be included in the estimation. In this review, we discuss when [Formula: see text] is useful, when it may be of use but needs to be interpreted with care, and when it may be an inappropriate indicator of the progress of the epidemic. We also argue that careful definition of [Formula: see text], and the data and methods used to estimate it, can make [Formula: see text] a more useful metric for future management of the epidemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carolin Vegvari
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, 4615Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Sam Abbott
- Center for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, 4906London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Frank Ball
- School of Mathematical Sciences, 6123University of Nottingham, UK
| | - Ellen Brooks-Pollock
- Bristol Veterinary School, 1980University of Bristol, UK.,NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation at the University of Bristol, UK
| | - Robert Challen
- EPSRC Centre for Predictive Modelling in Healthcare, 3286University of Exeter, UK.,Somerset NHS Foundation Trust, UK
| | - Benjamin S Collyer
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, 4615Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Julia R Gog
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Katelyn M Gostic
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, 2462University of Chicago, USA
| | - Jane M Heffernan
- Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics & Statistics, 7991York University, Canada.,COVID Modelling Task-Force, The Fields Institute, Canada
| | - T Déirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, 6396University of Oxford, UK
| | - Valerie Isham
- Department of Statistical Science, 4919University College London, UK
| | - Eben Kenah
- Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, 2647The Ohio State University, USA
| | - Denis Mollison
- Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, UK
| | - Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
- The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute and The Queen's College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Lorenzo Pellis
- Department of Mathematics, 5292The University of Manchester, UK.,The Alan Turing Institute, UK
| | - Michael G Roberts
- School of Natural and Computational Sciences and New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University, New Zealand
| | | | - Robin N Thompson
- Mathematics Institute, 2707University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.,Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, 2707University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Pieter Trapman
- Department of Mathematics, 7675Stockholm University, Sweden
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Kılcı EN. Convergence of testing and positivity rates for the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Germany and Italy. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH GOVERNANCE 2022. [DOI: 10.1108/ijhg-03-2022-0032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the convergence of the testing and positivity rates for the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on Germany and Italy.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test by using the weekly data in the period of 2020:03-2021:04.FindingsFollowing finding out that the testing and positivity rates are nonlinear, the authors determine that the transition country between the two regimes is Italy for the testing rates and Germany for the positivity rates. Their findings support the partial convergence for the testing rates for Germany and Italy. On the other hand, the authors could not find any convergence for the positivity rates of these two countries.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to academic literature in several ways. Firstly, to the best of their knowledge, this paper is the first study that analyzes the convergence of testing and positivity data. This paper further focuses on two Euro-Area countries which have suffered significantly from the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the authors employ the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root proposed by Beyaert and Camacho (2008) in their empirical analysis. This recent panel data methodology aims to test real convergence in a nonlinear framework by incorporating the threshold model, panel data unit root test and the calculation of critical values by bootstrap simulation.
Collapse
|
16
|
Anneser E, Riseberg E, Brooks YM, Corlin L, Stringer C. Modeling the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater or sludge and COVID-19 cases in three New England regions. JOURNAL OF WATER AND HEALTH 2022; 20:816-828. [PMID: 35635775 DOI: 10.2166/wh.2022.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to compare statistical techniques estimating the association between SARS-CoV-2 RNA in untreated wastewater and sludge and reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. METHODS SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (copies/mL) were measured from 24-h composite samples of wastewater in Massachusetts (MA) (daily; 8/19/2020-1/19/2021) and Maine (ME) (weekly; 9/1/2020-3/2/2021) and sludge samples in Connecticut (CT) (daily; 3/1/2020-6/1/2020). We fit linear, generalized additive with a cubic regression spline (GAM), Poisson, and negative binomial models to estimate the association between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration and reported COVID-19 cases. RESULTS The models that fit the data best were linear [adjusted R2=0.85 (MA), 0.16 (CT), 0.63 (ME); root-mean-square error (RMSE)=0.41 (MA), 1.14 (CT), 0.99 (ME)), GAM (adjusted R2=0.86 (MA), 0.16 (CT) 0.65 (ME); RMSE=0.39 (MA), 1.14 (CT), 0.97 (ME)], and Poisson [pseudo R2=0.84 (MA), 0.21 (CT), 0.52 (ME); RMSE=0.39 (MA), 0.67 (CT), 0.79 (ME)]. CONCLUSIONS Linear, GAM, and Poisson models outperformed negative binomial models when relating SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater or sludge to reported COVID-19 cases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elyssa Anneser
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA E-mail: ; These authors contributed equally to the work
| | - Emily Riseberg
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA E-mail: ; These authors contributed equally to the work
| | - Yolanda M Brooks
- Department of Sciences, St Joseph's College of Maine, Standish, ME, USA
| | - Laura Corlin
- Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA E-mail: ; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University School of Engineering, Medford, MA, USA
| | - Christina Stringer
- New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission, Lowell, MA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Arim M, Herrera-Esposito D, Bermolen P, Cabana Á, Inés Fariello M, Lima M, Romero H. Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics. J Theor Biol 2022; 542:111109. [PMID: 35346665 PMCID: PMC8956350 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matías Arim
- Departamento de Ecología y Gestión Ambiental, Centro Universitario Regional Este (CURE), Universidad de la República, Uruguay; CICADA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.
| | - Daniel Herrera-Esposito
- CICADA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Laboratorio de Neurociencias, Instituto de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
| | - Paola Bermolen
- CICADA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Instituto de Matemática y Estadística Rafael Laguardia, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
| | - Álvaro Cabana
- CICADA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Center for Basic Research in Psychology (CIBPsi) & Instituto de Fundamentos y Métodos, Facultad de Psicología, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
| | - María Inés Fariello
- CICADA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Instituto de Matemática y Estadística Rafael Laguardia, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
| | - Mauricio Lima
- Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Hector Romero
- Departamento de Ecología y Gestión Ambiental, Centro Universitario Regional Este (CURE), Universidad de la República, Uruguay; CICADA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencia de Datos y Aprendizaje Automático, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Laboratorio de Genómica Evolutiva, Dpto. de Biología Celular y Molecular, Instituto de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Galasso J, Cao DM, Hochberg R. A random forest model for forecasting regional COVID-19 cases utilizing reproduction number estimates and demographic data. CHAOS, SOLITONS, AND FRACTALS 2022; 156:111779. [PMID: 35013654 PMCID: PMC8731233 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2021] [Revised: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/29/2021] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, predicting case spikes at the local level is important for a precise, targeted public health response and is generally done with compartmental models. The performance of compartmental models is highly dependent on the accuracy of their assumptions about disease dynamics within a population; thus, such models are susceptible to human error, unexpected events, or unknown characteristics of a novel infectious agent like COVID-19. We present a relatively non-parametric random forest model that forecasts the number of COVID-19 cases at the U.S. county level. Its most prioritized training features are derived from easily accessible, standard epidemiological data (i.e., regional test positivity rate) and the effective reproduction number ( R t ) from compartmental models. A novel input training feature is case projections generated by aligning estimated effective reproduction number (pre-computed by COVIDActNow.org) with real time testing data until maximally correlated, helping our model fit better to the epidemic's trajectory as ascertained by traditional models. Poor reliability of R t is partially mitigated with dynamic population mobility and prevalence and mortality of non-COVID-19 diseases to gauge population disease susceptibility. The model was used to generate forecasts for 1, 2, 3, and 4 weeks into the future for each reference week within 11/01/2020 - 01/10/2021 for 3068 counties. Over this time period, it maintained a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 300 weekly cases/100,000 and consistently outperformed or performed comparably with gold-standard compartmental models. Furthermore, it holds great potential in ensemble modeling due to its potential for a more expansive training feature set while maintaining good performance and limited resource utilization.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Galasso
- Department of Biology #11, University of Dallas, Irving, TX 75062, USA
| | - Duy M Cao
- Department of Computer Science #134, University of Dallas, Irving, TX 75062, USA
| | - Robert Hochberg
- Department of Computer Science #50, University of Dallas, Irving, TX 75062, USA
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Dynamics of COVID-19 in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. J Taibah Univ Med Sci 2022; 17:461-466. [PMID: 35317285 PMCID: PMC8931691 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtumed.2022.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2021] [Revised: 02/13/2022] [Accepted: 03/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives Methods Results Conclusions
Collapse
|
20
|
Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:2111870119. [PMID: 35105729 PMCID: PMC8851544 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2111870119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Forecasting COVID-19 healthcare demand has been hindered by poor data throughout the pandemic. We introduce a robust model for predicting COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations based on COVID-19 hospital admissions and cell phone mobility data. This approach was developed by a municipal COVID-19 task force in Austin, TX, which includes civic leaders, public health officials, healthcare executives, and scientists. The model was incorporated into a dashboard providing daily healthcare forecasts that have raised public awareness, guided the city’s staged alert system to prevent unmanageable ICU surges, and triggered the launch of an alternative care site to accommodate hospital overflow. Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.
Collapse
|
21
|
Tirkolaee EB, Goli A, Ghasemi P, Goodarzian F. Designing a sustainable closed-loop supply chain network of face masks during the COVID-19 pandemic: Pareto-based algorithms. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2022; 333:130056. [PMID: 34924699 PMCID: PMC8671674 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.130056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 12/09/2021] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
This study develops a novel mathematical model to design a sustainable mask Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network (CLSCN) during the COVID-19 outbreak for the first time. A multi-objective Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model is proposed to address the locational, supply, production, distribution, collection, quarantine, recycling, reuse, and disposal decisions within a multi-period multi-echelon multi-product supply chain. Additionally, sustainable development is studied in terms of minimizing the total cost, total pollution and total human risk at the same time. Since the CLSCN design is an NP-hard problem, Multi-Objective Grey Wolf Optimization (MOGWO) algorithm and Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) are implemented to solve the proposed model and to find Pareto optimal solutions. Since Meta-heuristic algorithms are sensitive to their input parameters, the Taguchi design method is applied to tune and control the parameters. Then, a comparison is performed using four assessment metrics including Max-Spread, Spread of Non-Dominance Solution (SNS), Number of Pareto Solutions (NPS), and Mean Ideal Distance (MID). Additionally, a statistical test is employed to evaluate the quality of the obtained Pareto frontier by the presented algorithms. The obtained results reveal that the MOGWO algorithm is more reliable to tackle the problem such that it is about 25% superior to NSGA-II in terms of the dispersion of Pareto solutions and about 2% superior in terms of the solution quality. To validate the proposed mathematical model and testing its applicability, a real case study in Tehran/Iran is investigated as well as a set of sensitivity analyses on important parameters. Finally, the practical implications are discussed and useful managerial insights are given.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Alireza Goli
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Future Studies, Faculty of Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Peiman Ghasemi
- Department of Logistics, Tourism and Service Management, German University of Technology in Oman (GUtech), Muscat, Oman
| | - Fariba Goodarzian
- Machine Intelligence Research Labs (MIR Labs), Scientific Network for Innovation and Research Excellence, Washington, USA
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Michalak MP, Cordes J, Kulawik A, Sitek SÅ, Pytel SÅ, ZuzaÅ Ska-Å yÅ Ko EB, Wieczorek R. Reducing bias in risk indices for COVID-19. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH 2022; 17. [PMID: 35147012 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 08/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases and/or regional positivity rates. Although observing changes of these indices over time is critical to estimate the regional disease burden, the dynamical properties of these measures, as well as crossrelationships, are usually not systematically given or explained. Here we provide a spatiotemporal framework composed of six commonly used and newly constructed epidemiological metrics and conduct a case study evaluation. We introduce a refined risk estimate that is biased neither by variation in population size nor by the spatial heterogeneity of testing. In particular, the proposed methodology would be useful for unbiased identification of time periods with elevated COVID-19 risk without sensitivity to spatial heterogeneity of neither population nor testing coverage.We offer a case study in Poland that shows improvement over the bias of currently used methods. Our results also provide insights regarding regional prioritisation of testing and the consequences of potential synchronisation of epidemics between regions. The approach should apply to other infectious diseases and other geographical areas.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- MichaÅ' PaweÅ' Michalak
- Institute of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Sosnowiec, Poland; Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, Cracow.
| | - Jack Cordes
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
| | - Agnieszka Kulawik
- Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice.
| | - SÅ'awomir Sitek
- Department of Social and Economic Geography and Spatial Management, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Sosnowiec.
| | - SÅ'awomir Pytel
- Department of Social and Economic Geography and Spatial Management, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Sosnowiec.
| | - ElÅ Bieta ZuzaÅ Ska-Å yÅ Ko
- Department of Social and Economic Geography and Spatial Management, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Sosnowiec.
| | - RadosÅ'aw Wieczorek
- Institute of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice.
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Böttcher L, D'Orsogna MR, Chou T. A statistical model of COVID-19 testing in populations: effects of sampling bias andtesting errors. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2022; 380:20210121. [PMID: 34802274 PMCID: PMC8607147 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2021] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II (false negative) testing errors. Our model also incorporates multiple test types and is able to distinguish between retesting and exclusion after testing. Our quantitative framework allows us to directly interpret testing results as a function of errors and biases. By applying our testing model to COVID-19 testing data and actual case data from specific jurisdictions, we are able to estimate and provide uncertainty quantification of indices that are crucial in a pandemic, such as disease prevalence and fatality ratios. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Böttcher
- Department of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766 Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Computational Social Science, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, 60322 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Maria R. D'Orsogna
- Department of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766 Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Department of Mathematics, California State University at Northridge, Los Angeles, 91330-8313 CA, USA
| | - Tom Chou
- Department of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766 Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Department of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766 Los Angeles, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Wang C, Zhang H, Gao Y, Deng Q. Comparative Study of Government Response Measures and Epidemic Trends for COVID-19 Global Pandemic. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2022; 42:40-55. [PMID: 34486147 PMCID: PMC8661723 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2020] [Revised: 07/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has evolved into a full range of challenges that the world is facing. Health and economic threats caused governments to take preventive measures against the spread of the disease. This study aims to provide a correlation analysis of the response measures adopted by countries and epidemic trends since the COVID-19 outbreak. This analysis picks 13 countries for quantitative assessment. We select a trusted model to fit the epidemic trend curves in segments and catch the characteristics based on which we explore the key factors of COVID-19 spread. This review generates a score table of government response measures according to the Likert scale. We use the Delphi method to obtain expert judgments about the government response in the Likert scale. Furthermore, we find a significant negative correlation between the epidemic trend characteristics and the government response measure scores given by experts through correlation analysis. More stringent government response measures correlate with fewer infections and fewer waves in the infection curves. Stringent government response measures curb the spread of COVID-19, limit the number of total infectious cases, and reduce the time to peak of total cases. The clusters of the results categorize the countries into two specific groups. This study will improve our understanding of the prevention of COVID-19 spread and government response.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chenyang Wang
- Department of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Hui Zhang
- Department of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Yang Gao
- Department of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Qing Deng
- Department of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Liu Y, Sandmann FG, Barnard RC, Pearson CA, Pastore R, Pebody R, Flasche S, Jit M. Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region: a mathematical modelling study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2022; 12:100267. [PMID: 34870256 PMCID: PMC8629724 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region differ in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine supply conditions. We evaluated the health and economic impact of different age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies across this demographically and socio-economically diverse region. METHODS We fitted age-specific compartmental models to the reported daily COVID-19 mortality in 2020 to inform the immunity level before vaccine roll-out. Models capture country-specific differences in population structures, contact patterns, epidemic history, life expectancy, and GDP per capita.We examined four strategies that prioritise: all adults (V+), younger (20-59 year-olds) followed by older adults (60+) (V20), older followed by younger adults (V60), and the oldest adults (75+) (V75) followed by incrementally younger age groups. We explored four roll-out scenarios (R1-4) - the slowest scenario (R1) reached 30% coverage by December 2022 and the fastest (R4) 80% by December 2021. Five decision-making metrics were summarised over 2021-22: mortality, morbidity, and losses in comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy, comorbidity- and quality-adjusted life years, and human capital. Six vaccine profiles were tested - the highest performing vaccine has 95% efficacy against both infection and disease, and the lowest 50% against diseases and 0% against infection. FINDINGS Of the 20 decision-making metrics and roll-out scenario combinations, the same optimal strategy applied to all countries in only one combination; V60 was more or similarly desirable than V75 in 19 combinations. Of the 38 countries with fitted models, 11-37 countries had variable optimal strategies by decision-making metrics or roll-out scenarios. There are greater benefits in prioritising older adults when roll-out is slow and when vaccine profiles are less favourable. INTERPRETATION The optimal age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies were sensitive to country characteristics, decision-making metrics, and roll-out speeds. A prioritisation strategy involving more age-based stages (V75) does not necessarily lead to better health and economic outcomes than targeting broad age groups (V60). Countries expecting a slow vaccine roll-out may particularly benefit from prioritising older adults. FUNDING World Health Organization, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Medical Research Council (United Kingdom), the National Institute of Health Research (United Kingdom), the European Commission, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (United Kingdom), Wellcome Trust.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yang Liu
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
| | - Frank G. Sandmann
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, National Infection Service, Public Health England; 61 Colindale Ave, London, United Kingdom NW9 5EQ
| | - Rosanna C. Barnard
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
| | - Carl A.B. Pearson
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
| | - Roberta Pastore
- World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe; UN City, Marmorvej 51, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Richard Pebody
- World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe; UN City, Marmorvej 51, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Stefan Flasche
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Keppel St, London, United Kingdom WC1E 7HT
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Bonnechère B, Sankoh O, Samadoulougou S, Yombi JC, Kirakoya-Samadoulougou F. Surveillance of COVID-19 in Cameroon: Implications for policymakers and the healthcare system. J Public Health Afr 2021; 12:1415. [PMID: 35126888 PMCID: PMC8791020 DOI: 10.4081/jphia.2021.1415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 12/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
At first less impacted than the rest of the world, African countries, including Cameroon, are also facing the spread of COVID-19. This study aimed to analyze the spread of the COVID-19 in Cameroon, one of the most affected countries in sub- Saharan Africa. We used the data from the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, reporting the number of confirmed cases and deaths, and analyzed the regularity of tests and confirmed cases and compared those numbers with neighboring countries. We tested different phenomenological models to model the early phase of the outbreak. Since the first reported cases on the 7th of March, 18,662 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of the 24th of August, 186,243 tests have been performed, and 408 deaths have been recorded. New cases have been recorded only in 50% of the days since the first reported cases. There are considerable disparities in the reporting of daily cases, making it difficult to interpret these numbers and to model the evolution of the pandemic with the phenomenological models. Currently, following the finding from this study, it is challenging to predict the evolution of the pandemic and to make comparisons between countries as screening measures are so sparse. Monitoring should be performed regularly to provide a more accurate estimate of the situation and allocate healthcare resources more efficiently.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bruno Bonnechère
- REVAL Rehabilitation Research Center, Faculty of Rehabilitation Sciences, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium
| | | | - Sékou Samadoulougou
- Evaluation Platform on Obesity Prevention, Quebec Heart and Lung Institute Research Center, Quebec City, Canada.,Centre for Research on Planning and Development (CRAD), Laval University, Quebec, Canada
| | - Jean Cyr Yombi
- Department of Infectious diseases, cliniques Universitaires Saint Luc, Institut de Recherches Expérimentales et Cliniques (IREC), UCLouvain, Bruxelles, Belgium
| | - Fati Kirakoya-Samadoulougou
- Centre de Recherche en Epidémiologie, Biostatistique et Recherche Clinique, Ecole de Santé Publique, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Bruxelles, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Yin N, Dellicour S, Daubie V, Franco N, Wautier M, Faes C, Van Cauteren D, Nymark L, Hens N, Gilbert M, Hallin M, Vandenberg O. Leveraging of SARS-CoV-2 PCR Cycle Thresholds Values to Forecast COVID-19 Trends. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:743988. [PMID: 34790677 PMCID: PMC8591051 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.743988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2021] [Accepted: 10/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: We assessed the usefulness of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR cycle thresholds (Ct) values trends produced by the LHUB-ULB (a consolidated microbiology laboratory located in Brussels, Belgium) for monitoring the epidemic's dynamics at local and national levels and for improving forecasting models. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR Ct values produced from April 1, 2020, to May 15, 2021, were compared with national COVID-19 confirmed cases notifications according to their geographical and time distribution. These Ct values were evaluated against both a phase diagram predicting the number of COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care and an age-structured model estimating COVID-19 prevalence in Belgium. Results: Over 155,811 RT-PCR performed, 12,799 were positive and 7,910 Ct values were available for analysis. The 14-day median Ct values were negatively correlated with the 14-day mean daily positive tests with a lag of 17 days. In addition, the 14-day mean daily positive tests in LHUB-ULB were strongly correlated with the 14-day mean confirmed cases in the Brussels-Capital and in Belgium with coinciding start, peak, and end of the different waves of the epidemic. Ct values decreased concurrently with the forecasted phase-shifts of the diagram. Similarly, the evolution of 14-day median Ct values was negatively correlated with daily estimated prevalence for all age-classes. Conclusion: We provide preliminary evidence that trends of Ct values can help to both follow and predict the epidemic's trajectory at local and national levels, underlining that consolidated microbiology laboratories can act as epidemic sensors as they gather data that are representative of the geographical area they serve.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Yin
- Department of Microbiology, Laboratoire Hospitalier Universitaire de Bruxelles - Universitair Laboratorium Brussel (LHUB-ULB), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
| | - Simon Dellicour
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium.,Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Division of Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Rega Institute, Katholieke Universiteit (KU) Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Valery Daubie
- Department of Microbiology, Laboratoire Hospitalier Universitaire de Bruxelles - Universitair Laboratorium Brussel (LHUB-ULB), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
| | - Nicolas Franco
- Department of Mathematics, Namur Centre for Complex Systems (Naxys), University of Namur, Namur, Belgium.,Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Data Science Institute, Hasselt University (UHasselt), Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Magali Wautier
- Department of Microbiology, Laboratoire Hospitalier Universitaire de Bruxelles - Universitair Laboratorium Brussel (LHUB-ULB), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
| | - Christel Faes
- Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Data Science Institute, Hasselt University (UHasselt), Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Dieter Van Cauteren
- Scientific Directorate of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Liv Nymark
- Division of Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.,Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Niel Hens
- Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Data Science Institute, Hasselt University (UHasselt), Hasselt, Belgium.,Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Marius Gilbert
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium
| | - Marie Hallin
- Department of Microbiology, Laboratoire Hospitalier Universitaire de Bruxelles - Universitair Laboratorium Brussel (LHUB-ULB), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium.,Centre for Environmental Health and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
| | - Olivier Vandenberg
- Centre for Environmental Health and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium.,Clinical Research and Innovation Unit, Laboratoire Hospitalier Universitaire de Bruxelles - Universitair Laboratorium Brussel (LHUB-ULB), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium.,Division of Infection and Immunity, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Omori R, Miura F, Kitajima M. Age-dependent association between SARS-CoV-2 cases reported by passive surveillance and viral load in wastewater. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 792:148442. [PMID: 34147797 PMCID: PMC8205270 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148442] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2021] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
The actual number of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is difficult to estimate using a case-reporting system (i.e., passive surveillance) alone because of asymptomatic infection. While wastewater-based epidemiology has been implemented as an alternative/additional monitoring tool to reduce reporting bias, the relationship between passive and wastewater surveillance data has not yet been explicitly examined. As there is strong age dependency in the symptomatic ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infections, here, we aimed to estimate i) an age-dependent association between the number of reported cases and viral load in wastewater and ii) the time lag between these time series. The viral load in wastewater was modeled as a combination of contributions from virus shedding by different age groups, incorporating the delay, and fitted with daily case count data collected from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater recorded by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. The estimated lag between the time series of viral loads in wastewater and of reported cases was 10.8 (95% confidence interval: 10.2-11.6) and 8.8 (8.4-9.1) days for the northern and southern areas of the wastewater treatment plant, respectively. The estimated contribution rate of a reported case to the viral load in wastewater in the 0-19 yr age group was 0.38 (0.35-0.41) and 0.40 (0.37-0.43) for the northern and southern areas, and that in the 80+ yr age group was 0.67 (0.65-0.69) and 0.51 (0.49-0.52) for the northern and southern areas, respectively. The estimated lag between these time series suggested the predictability of reported cases 10 days later using viral loads in wastewater. The contribution of a reported case in passive surveillance to the viral load in wastewater differed by age, suggesting a large variation in viral shedding kinetics among age groups.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ryosuke Omori
- Division of Bioinformatics, International Institute for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, North 20 West 10, Kita-Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 001-0020, Japan.
| | - Fuminari Miura
- Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, 3 Bunkyo, Matsuyama, Ehime 790-8577, Japan
| | - Masaaki Kitajima
- Division of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, North 13 West 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8628, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
29
|
Nawa N, Tebi D, Kuramochi J, Fujiwara T. Estimation of the Total Number of SARS-CoV-2-infected Individuals and the Necessary Tests and Cost during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan. J Epidemiol 2021; 31:554-555. [PMID: 34380919 PMCID: PMC8421198 DOI: 10.2188/jea.je20210197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nobutoshi Nawa
- Department of Medical Education Research and Development, Tokyo Medical and Dental University
| | - Daiki Tebi
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University
| | | | - Takeo Fujiwara
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University
| |
Collapse
|
30
|
Asahi K, Undurraga EA, Wagner R. Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing. Sci Rep 2021; 11:15199. [PMID: 34312459 PMCID: PMC8313551 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-94663-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Scientists and policymakers need to compare the incidence of Covid-19 across territories or periods with various levels of testing. Benchmarking based on the increase in total cases or case fatality rates is one way of comparing the evolution of the pandemic across countries or territories and could inform policy decisions about strategies to control coronavirus transmission. However, comparing cases and fatality rates across regions is challenging due to heterogeneity in testing and health systems. We show two complementary ways of benchmarking across territories and in time. First, we used multivariate regressions to estimate the test-elasticity of Covid-19 case incidence. Cases grow less than proportionally with testing when assessing weekly changes or looking across states in the USA. They tend to be proportional or even more than proportional when comparing the month-to-month evolution of an average country in the pandemic. Our results were robust to various model specifications. Second, we decomposed the growth in cases into test growth and positive test ratio growth to intuitively visualize the components of case growth. We hope these results can help support evidence-based decisions by public officials and help the public discussion when comparing across territories and in time.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kenzo Asahi
- Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul CP, 7820436, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile.,Centre for Sustainable Urban Development (CEDEUS), Santiago, Chile
| | - Eduardo A Undurraga
- Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul CP, 7820436, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile. .,Millennium Initiative for Collaborative Research in Bacterial Resistance (MICROB-R), Santiago, Chile. .,Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile. .,CIFAR Azrieli Global Scholars Program, CIFAR, Toronto, Canada.
| | - Rodrigo Wagner
- Business School, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile.,Center for International Development, Harvard, Cambridge, USA
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Rashed EA, Hirata A. Infectivity Upsurge by COVID-19 Viral Variants in Japan: Evidence from Deep Learning Modeling. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18157799. [PMID: 34360092 PMCID: PMC8345638 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18157799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The significant health and economic effects of COVID-19 emphasize the requirement for reliable forecasting models to avoid the sudden collapse of healthcare facilities with overloaded hospitals. Several forecasting models have been developed based on the data acquired within the early stages of the virus spread. However, with the recent emergence of new virus variants, it is unclear how the new strains could influence the efficiency of forecasting using models adopted using earlier data. In this study, we analyzed daily positive cases (DPC) data using a machine learning model to understand the effect of new viral variants on morbidity rates. A deep learning model that considers several environmental and mobility factors was used to forecast DPC in six districts of Japan. From machine learning predictions with training data since the early days of COVID-19, high-quality estimation has been achieved for data obtained earlier than March 2021. However, a significant upsurge was observed in some districts after the discovery of the new COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7 (Alpha). An average increase of 20–40% in DPC was observed after the emergence of the Alpha variant and an increase of up to 20% has been recognized in the effective reproduction number. Approximately four weeks was needed for the machine learning model to adjust the forecasting error caused by the new variants. The comparison between machine-learning predictions and reported values demonstrated that the emergence of new virus variants should be considered within COVID-19 forecasting models. This study presents an easy yet efficient way to quantify the change caused by new viral variants with potential usefulness for global data analysis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Essam A. Rashed
- Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan;
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Suez Canal University, Ismailia 41522, Egypt
- Correspondence:
| | - Akimasa Hirata
- Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan;
- Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
Chen RM. Extracted features of national and continental daily biweekly growth rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths via Fourier analysis. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2021; 18:6216-6238. [PMID: 34517531 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2021311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
AIMS By associating features with orthonormal bases, we analyse the values of the extracted features for the daily biweekly growth rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths on national and continental levels. METHODS By adopting the concept of Fourier coefficients, we analyse the inner products with respect to temporal and spatial frequencies on national and continental levels. The input data are the global time series data with 117 countries over 109 days on a national level; and 6 continents over 447 days on a continental level. Next, we calculate the Euclidean distance matrices and their average variabilities, which measure the average discrepancy between one feature vector and all others. Then we analyse the temporal and spatial variabilities on a national level. By calculating the temporal inner products on a continental level, we derive and analyse the similarities between the continents. RESULTS On the national level, the daily biweekly growth rates bear higher similarities in the time dimension than the ones in the space dimension. Furthermore, there exists a strong concurrency between the features for biweekly growth rates of cases and deaths. As far as the trends of the features are concerned, the features are stabler on the continental level, and less predictive on the national level. In addition, there are very high similarities between all the continents, except Asia. CONCLUSIONS The features for daily biweekly growth rates of cases and deaths are extracted via orthonormal frequencies. By tracking the inner products for the input data and the orthonormal features, we could decompose the evolutionary results of COVID-19 into some fundamental frequencies. Though the frequency-based techniques are applied, the interpretation of the features should resort to other methods. By analysing the spectrum of the frequencies, we reveal hidden patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic. This would provide some preliminary research merits for further insightful investigations. It could also be used to predict future trends of daily biweekly growth rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ray-Ming Chen
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Baise University, 21 Zhongshan No. 2 Road, Basie 533000, China
| |
Collapse
|
33
|
Abstract
We estimate the delay-adjusted all-cause excess deaths across 53 US jurisdictions. Using provisional data collected from September through December 2020, we first identify a common mean reporting delay of 2.8 weeks, whereas four jurisdictions have prolonged reporting delays compared to the others: Connecticut (mean 5.8 weeks), North Carolina (mean 10.4 weeks), Puerto Rico (mean 4.7 weeks) and West Virginia (mean 5.5 weeks). After adjusting for reporting delays, we estimate the percent change in all-cause excess mortality from March to December 2020 with range from 0.2 to 3.6 in Hawaii to 58.4 to 62.4 in New York City. Comparing the March-December with September-December 2020 periods, the highest increases in excess mortality are observed in South Dakota (36.9-54.0), North Dakota (33.9-50.7) and Missouri (27.8-33.9). Our findings indicate that analysis of provisional data requires caution in interpreting the death counts in recent weeks, while one needs also to account for heterogeneity in reporting delays of excess deaths among US jurisdictions.
Collapse
|
34
|
Gog JR, Hill EM, Danon L, Thompson RN. Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2021; 8:210530. [PMID: 34277027 PMCID: PMC8278051 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 07/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
As a countermeasure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially also the effectiveness of vaccines. The widespread deployment of highly effective vaccines may rapidly exert selection pressure on the SARS-CoV-2 virus directed towards mutations that escape the vaccine-induced immune response. This is particularly concerning while infection is widespread. By developing and analysing a mathematical model of two population groupings with differing vulnerability and contact rates, we explore the impact of the deployment of vaccines among the population on the reproduction ratio, cases, disease abundance and vaccine escape pressure. The results from this model illustrate two insights: (i) vaccination aimed at reducing prevalence could be more effective at reducing disease than directly vaccinating the vulnerable; (ii) the highest risk for vaccine escape can occur at intermediate levels of vaccination. This work demonstrates a key principle: the careful targeting of vaccines towards particular population groups could reduce disease as much as possible while limiting the risk of vaccine escape.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Julia R. Gog
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- JUNIPER – Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK
| | - Edward M. Hill
- JUNIPER – Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Leon Danon
- JUNIPER – Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK
- Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
| | - Robin N. Thompson
- JUNIPER – Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK
- The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| |
Collapse
|
35
|
Chung SC, Marlow S, Tobias N, Alogna A, Alogna I, You SL, Khunti K, McKee M, Michie S, Pillay D. Lessons from countries implementing find, test, trace, isolation and support policies in the rapid response of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e047832. [PMID: 34187854 PMCID: PMC8251680 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To systematically learn lessons from the experiences of countries implementing find, test, trace, isolate, support (FTTIS) in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane Library, SCOPUS and JSTOR, initially between 31 May 2019 and 21 January 2021. Research articles and reviews on the use of contact tracing, testing, self-isolation and quarantine for COVID-19 management were included in the review. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS We extracted information including study objective, design, methods, main findings and implications. These were tabulated and a narrative synthesis was undertaken given the diverse research designs, methods and implications. RESULTS We identified and included 118 eligible studies. We identified the core elements of an effective find, test, trace, isolate, support (FTTIS) system needed to interrupt the spread of a novel infectious disease, where treatment or vaccination was not yet available, as pertained in the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We report methods used to shorten case finding time, improve accuracy and efficiency of tests, coordinate stakeholders and actors involved in an FTTIS system, support individuals isolating and make appropriate use of digital tools. CONCLUSIONS We identified in our systematic review the key components of an FTTIS system. These include border controls, restricted entry, inbound traveller quarantine and comprehensive case finding; repeated testing to minimise false diagnoses and pooled testing in resource-limited circumstances; extended quarantine period and the use of digital tools for contact tracing and self-isolation. Support for mental or physical health and livelihoods is needed for individuals undergoing self-isolation/quarantine. An integrated system with rolling-wave planning can best use effective FTTIS tools to respond to the fast-changing COVID-19 pandemic. Results of the review may inform countries considering implementing these measures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sheng-Chia Chung
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sushila Marlow
- Department of Chemical Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nicholas Tobias
- Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Ivano Alogna
- British Institute of International and Comparative Law, London, UK
| | - San-Lin You
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
- Big Data Research Center, College of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Kamlesh Khunti
- Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Martin McKee
- European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Susan Michie
- Centre for Behaviour Change, Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Deenan Pillay
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Akhmetzhanov AR, Mizumoto K, Jung SM, Linton NM, Omori R, Nishiura H. Estimation of the Actual Incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Emergent Hotspots: The Example of Hokkaido, Japan during February-March 2020. J Clin Med 2021; 10:2392. [PMID: 34071502 PMCID: PMC8198150 DOI: 10.3390/jcm10112392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Revised: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Following the first report of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo city, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized due to having mild or no symptoms during the initial months of the outbreak. We therefore aimed to predict the actual number of COVID-19 cases in (i) Hokkaido Prefecture and (ii) Sapporo city using data on cases diagnosed outside these areas. Two statistical frameworks involving a balance equation and an extrapolated linear regression model with a negative binomial link were used for deriving both estimates, respectively. The estimated cumulative incidence in Hokkaido as of 27 February was 2,297 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 382-7091) based on data on travelers outbound from Hokkaido. The cumulative incidence in Sapporo city as of 28 February was estimated at 2233 cases (95% CI: 0-4893) based on the count of confirmed cases within Hokkaido. Both approaches resulted in similar estimates, indicating a higher incidence of infections in Hokkaido than were detected by the surveillance system. This quantification of the gap between detected and estimated cases helped to inform the public health response at the beginning of the pandemic and provided insight into the possible scope of undetected transmission for future assessments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan; (A.R.A.); (S.-M.J.); (N.M.L.)
- Global Health Program, Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, 17 Xu-Zhou Road, Taipei 10055, Taiwan
| | - Kenji Mizumoto
- Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan;
- Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8306, Japan
| | - Sung-Mok Jung
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan; (A.R.A.); (S.-M.J.); (N.M.L.)
- School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoe cho, Sakyo ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
| | - Natalie M. Linton
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan; (A.R.A.); (S.-M.J.); (N.M.L.)
- School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoe cho, Sakyo ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
| | - Ryosuke Omori
- Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Kita 19 Jo Nishi 10 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 001-0019, Japan;
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan; (A.R.A.); (S.-M.J.); (N.M.L.)
- School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoe cho, Sakyo ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
- Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
Böttcher L, D’Orsogna MR, Chou T. A statistical model of COVID-19 testing in populations: effects of sampling bias and testing errors. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2021:2021.05.22.21257643. [PMID: 34075386 PMCID: PMC8168390 DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.22.21257643] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II (false negative) testing errors. Our model also incorporates multiple test types and is able to distinguish between retesting and exclusion after testing. Our quantitative framework allows us to directly interpret testing results as a function of errors and biases. By applying our testing model to COVID-19 testing data and actual case data from specific jurisdictions, we are able to estimate and provide uncertainty quantification of indices that are crucial in a pandemic, such as disease prevalence and fatality ratios.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Böttcher
- Dept. of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766, Los Angeles, CA, United States
- Computational Social Science, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, 60322 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Maria R. D’Orsogna
- Dept. of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766, Los Angeles, CA, United States
- Dept. of Mathematics, California State University at Northridge, Los Angeles, 91330-8313, CA, United States
| | - Tom Chou
- Dept. of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766, Los Angeles, CA, United States
- Dept. of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1766, Los Angeles, CA, United States
| |
Collapse
|
38
|
Kranjac AW, Kranjac D. County-Level Factors That Influenced the Trajectory of COVID-19 Incidence in the New York City Area. Health Secur 2021; 19:S27-S33. [PMID: 33956531 PMCID: PMC8236558 DOI: 10.1089/hs.2020.0236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
More than a century of research has shown that sociodemographic conditions affect infectious disease transmission. In the late spring and early summer of 2020, reports of the effects of sociodemographic variables on the spread of COVID-19 were used in the media with minimal scientific proof attached. With new cases of COVID-19 surging in the United States at that time, it became essential to better understand how the spread of COVID-19 was varying across all segments of the population. We used hierarchical exponential growth curve modeling techniques to examine whether community socioeconomic characteristics uniquely influence the incidence of reported COVID-19 cases in the urban built environment. We show that as of July 19, 2020, confirmed coronavirus infections in New York City and surrounding areas-one of the early epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States-were concentrated along demographic and socioeconomic lines. Furthermore, our data provides evidence that after the onset of the pandemic, timely enactment of physical distancing measures such as school closures was essential to limiting the extent of the coronavirus spread in the population. We conclude that in a pandemic, public health authorities must impose physical distancing measures early on as well as consider community-level factors that associate with a greater risk of viral transmission.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ashley Wendell Kranjac
- Ashley Wendell Kranjac, PhD, is an Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Chapman University, Orange, CA. Dinko Kranjac, PhD, is an Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of La Verne, La Verne, CA
| | - Dinko Kranjac
- Ashley Wendell Kranjac, PhD, is an Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Chapman University, Orange, CA. Dinko Kranjac, PhD, is an Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of La Verne, La Verne, CA
| |
Collapse
|
39
|
Strauss AT, Boyarsky BJ, Garonzik-Wang JM, Werbel W, Durand CM, Avery RK, Jackson KR, Kernodle AB, Baker T, Snyder J, Segev DL, Massie AB. Liver transplantation in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic: National and center-level responses. Am J Transplant 2021; 21:1838-1847. [PMID: 33107180 PMCID: PMC9800484 DOI: 10.1111/ajt.16373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 10/02/2020] [Accepted: 10/15/2020] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has profoundly affected the American health care system; its effect on the liver transplant (LT) waitlist based on COVID-19 incidence has not been characterized. Using SRTR data, we compared observed LT waitlist registrations, waitlist mortality, deceased donor LTs (DDLT), and living donor LTs (LDLT) 3/15/2020-8/31/2020 to expected values based on historical trends 1/2016-1/2020, stratified by statewide COVID-19 incidence. Overall, from 3/15 to 4/30, new listings were 11% fewer than expected (IRR = 0.84 0.890.93 ), LDLTs were 49% fewer (IRR = 0.37 0.510.72 ), and DDLTs were 9% fewer (IRR = 0.85 0.910.97 ). In May, new listings were 21% fewer (IRR = 0.74 0.790.84 ), LDLTs were 42% fewer (IRR = 0.39 0.580.85 ) and DDLTs were 13% more (IRR = 1.07 1.151.23 ). Centers in states with the highest incidence 3/15-4/30 had 59% more waitlist deaths (IRR = 1.09 1.592.32 ) and 34% fewer DDLTs (IRR = 0.50 0.660.86 ). By August, waitlist outcomes were occurring at expected rates, except for DDLT (13% more across all incidences). While the early COVID-affected states endured major transplant practice changes, later in the pandemic the newly COVID-affected areas were not impacted to the same extent. These results speak to the adaptability of the transplant community in addressing the pandemic and applying new knowledge to patient care.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra T. Strauss
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Brian J. Boyarsky
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - William Werbel
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Christine M. Durand
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Robin K. Avery
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Kyle R. Jackson
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Amber B. Kernodle
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Talia Baker
- Department of Surgery, University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Jon Snyder
- Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Dorry L. Segev
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Allan B. Massie
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| |
Collapse
|
40
|
López-Izquierdo R, Del Campo F, Eiros JM. Influence of positive SARS-CoV-2 CRP on hospital admissions for COVID-19 in a Spanish health area. MEDICINA CLINICA (ENGLISH ED.) 2021; 156:407-408. [PMID: 33763600 PMCID: PMC7972713 DOI: 10.1016/j.medcle.2020.12.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Raúl López-Izquierdo
- Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Río Hortega, Valladolid, Spain.,Departamento de Cirugía, Oftalmología, Otorrinolaringología y Fisioterapia, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Félix Del Campo
- Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain.,Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario Río Hortega, Valladolid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Bioingenieria, Biomateriales y Nanomedicina (IBER-BBN), Valladolid, Spain
| | - José María Eiros
- Servicio de Microbiología, Hospital Universitario Río Hortega, Valladolid. Spain.,Departamento de Anatomía Patológica, Microbiología, Medicina preventiva y Salud Pública, Medicina Legal y Forense, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
Doi A, Iwata K, Kuroda H, Hasuike T, Nasu S, Kanda A, Nagao T, Nishioka H, Tomii K, Morimoto T, Kihara Y. Estimation of seroprevalence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using preserved serum at an outpatient setting in Kobe, Japan: A cross-sectional study. CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GLOBAL HEALTH 2021; 11:100747. [PMID: 33898863 PMCID: PMC8053595 DOI: 10.1016/j.cegh.2021.100747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2020] [Accepted: 04/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been affecting many people on earth and our society. Japan is known to have relatively smaller number of its infections as well as deaths among developed nations. However, accurate prevalence of COVID-19 in Japan remains unknown. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study to estimate seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional serologic testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibody using 1000 samples from patients at outpatient settings who visited the clinic from March 31 to April 7, 2020, stratified by the decade of age and sex. Results There were 33 positive IgG among 1000 serum samples (3.3%, 95%CI: 2.3–4.6%). By applying this figure to the census of Kobe City (population: 1,518,870), it is estimated that the number of people with positive IgG be 50,123 (95%CI: 34,934–69,868). Age and sex adjusted prevalence of positivity was calculated 2.7% (95%CI: 1.8–3.9%), and the estimated number of people with positive IgG was 40,999 (95%CI: 27,333–59,221). These numbers were 396 to 858-fold more than confirmed cases with PCR testing in Kobe City. Conclusions Our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the number of people with seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan is far more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Asako Doi
- Department of Infection Control, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Kentaro Iwata
- Division of Infectious Diseases Therapeutics, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Chuoku, 6500017, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Hirokazu Kuroda
- Department of Infection Control, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Toshikazu Hasuike
- Department of Infection Control, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Seiko Nasu
- Department of Infection Control, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.,Department of Laboratory Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuokum, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Aya Kanda
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuokum, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Tomomi Nagao
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuokum, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Hiroaki Nishioka
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Keisuke Tomii
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Takeshi Morimoto
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Hyogo Medical College, Mukogawa, 6638501, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan
| | - Yasuki Kihara
- Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku, 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
42
|
Bhowmik T, Tirtha SD, Iraganaboina NC, Eluru N. A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates at the county level in the United States considering socio-demographics, health indicators, mobility trends and health care infrastructure attributes. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0249133. [PMID: 33793611 PMCID: PMC8016225 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 03/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several research efforts have evaluated the impact of various factors including a) socio-demographics, (b) health indicators, (c) mobility trends, and (d) health care infrastructure attributes on COVID-19 transmission and mortality rate. However, earlier research focused only on a subset of variable groups (predominantly one or two) that can contribute to the COVID-19 transmission/mortality rate. The current study effort is designed to remedy this by analyzing COVID-19 transmission/mortality rates considering a comprehensive set of factors in a unified framework. METHODS AND FINDINGS We study two per capita dependent variables: (1) daily COVID-19 transmission rates and (2) total COVID-19 mortality rates. The first variable is modeled using a linear mixed model while the later dimension is analyzed using a linear regression approach. The model results are augmented with a sensitivity analysis to predict the impact of mobility restrictions at a county level. Several county level factors including proportion of African-Americans, income inequality, health indicators associated with Asthma, Cancer, HIV and heart disease, percentage of stay at home individuals, testing infrastructure and Intensive Care Unit capacity impact transmission and/or mortality rates. From the policy analysis, we find that enforcing a stay at home order that can ensure a 50% stay at home rate can result in a potential reduction of about 33% in daily cases. CONCLUSIONS The model framework developed can be employed by government agencies to evaluate the influence of reduced mobility on transmission rates at a county level while accommodating for various county specific factors. Based on our policy analysis, the study findings support a county level stay at home order for regions currently experiencing a surge in transmission. The model framework can also be employed to identify vulnerable counties that need to be prioritized based on health indicators for current support and/or preferential vaccination plans (when available).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tanmoy Bhowmik
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, United States of America
| | - Sudipta Dey Tirtha
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, United States of America
| | - Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, United States of America
| | - Naveen Eluru
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
43
|
Gutiérrez-Hernández O, García LV. On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 195:110818. [PMID: 33548299 PMCID: PMC7857997 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2020] [Revised: 01/24/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
This paper addresses the effects of atmospheric conditions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19. For this purpose, we assess the limitations of bioclimatic correlative models to explain the geographic distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of medical geography. Overall, there is a broad consensus that the global distribution of COVID-19 is not random but conditioned by environmental drivers. However, as the COVID-19 distribution becomes global, including tropical climates, the evidence reveals that atmospheric conditions explain, at most, only a limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the usefulness of approaches based on bioclimatic envelopes is in question since the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 seems to be the anthroposphere's non-stationary environment. In this sense, there is a need to clarify further the role of different transmission routes at multiple scales and outdoor and indoor environments beyond bioclimatic envelopes. At this time, the possible influence of the weather in COVID-19 spread is not sufficient to be taken into account in public health policies. Hence, until reliable bioclimatic envelopes of SARS-CoV-2, if any, are found, caution should be exercised when reporting, as this could have unforeseen consequences.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Luis V García
- Institute of Natural Resources and Agrobiology of Seville (IRNAS), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Av. Reina Mercedes 10, 41012, Seville, Spain.
| |
Collapse
|
44
|
Fenga L, Gaspari M. Predictive Capacity of COVID-19 Test Positivity Rate. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2021; 21:2435. [PMID: 33916239 PMCID: PMC8037413 DOI: 10.3390/s21072435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2021] [Revised: 03/24/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 infections can spread silently, due to the simultaneous presence of significant numbers of both critical and asymptomatic to mild cases. While, for the former reliable data are available (in the form of number of hospitalization and/or beds in intensive care units), this is not the case of the latter. Hence, analytical tools designed to generate reliable forecast and future scenarios, should be implemented to help decision-makers to plan ahead (e.g., medical structures and equipment). Previous work of one of the authors shows that an alternative formulation of the Test Positivity Rate (TPR), i.e., the proportion of the number of persons tested positive in a given day, exhibits a strong correlation with the number of patients admitted in hospitals and intensive care units. In this paper, we investigate the lagged correlation structure between the newly defined TPR and the hospitalized people time series, exploiting a rigorous statistical model, the Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average (SARIMA). The rigorous analytical framework chosen, i.e., the stochastic processes theory, allowed for a reliable forecasting about 12 days ahead of those quantities. The proposed approach would also allow decision-makers to forecast the number of beds in hospitals and intensive care units needed 12 days ahead. The obtained results show that a standardized TPR index is a valuable metric to monitor the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. The index can be computed on daily basis and it is probably one of the best forecasting tools available today for predicting hospital and intensive care units overload, being an optimal compromise between simplicity of calculation and accuracy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Livio Fenga
- Italian National Institute of Statistics, 00184 Roma, Italy;
| | - Mauro Gaspari
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
45
|
Choi W, Shim E. Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19. J Theor Biol 2021; 512:110568. [PMID: 33385403 PMCID: PMC7772089 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Revised: 12/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/22/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 79 million individuals, with 1.7 million deaths worldwide. Several countries have implemented social distancing and testing policies with contact tracing as a measure to flatten the curve of the ongoing pandemic. Optimizing these control measures is urgent given the substantial societal and economic impacts associated with infection and interventions. To determine the optimal social distancing and testing strategies, we developed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission and applied optimal control theory, identifying the best approach to reduce the epidemiological burden of COVID-19 at a minimal cost. The results demonstrate that testing as a standalone optimal strategy does not have a significant effect on the final size of an epidemic, but it would delay the peak of the pandemic. If social distancing is the sole control strategy, it would be optimal to gradually increase the level of social distancing as the incidence curve of COVID-19 grows, and relax the measures after the curve has reached its peak. Compared with a single strategy, combined social distancing and testing strategies are demonstrated to be more efficient at reducing the disease burden, and they can delay the peak of the disease. To optimize these strategies, testing should be maintained at a maximum level in the early phases and after the peak of the epidemic, whereas social distancing should be intensified when the prevalence of the disease is greater than 15%. Accordingly, public health agencies should implement early testing and switch to social distancing when the incidence level begins to increase. After the peak of the pandemic, it would be optimal to gradually relax social distancing and switch back to testing.
Collapse
|
46
|
Baral SD, Rucinski KB, Twahirwa Rwema JO, Rao A, Prata Menezes N, Diouf D, Kamarulzaman A, Phaswana-Mafuya N, Mishra S. The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 7:e24696. [PMID: 33522974 PMCID: PMC7927952 DOI: 10.2196/24696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Revised: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission. OBJECTIVE With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world. METHODS Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions. RESULTS In regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region. CONCLUSIONS Ecological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stefan David Baral
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Katherine Blair Rucinski
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Jean Olivier Twahirwa Rwema
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Amrita Rao
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Neia Prata Menezes
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | | | | | - Nancy Phaswana-Mafuya
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
47
|
Hata A, Hara-Yamamura H, Meuchi Y, Imai S, Honda R. Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater in Japan during a COVID-19 outbreak. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 758:143578. [PMID: 33221007 PMCID: PMC7654358 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2020] [Revised: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 10/31/2020] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
The presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in wastewater samples has been documented in several countries. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is potentially effective for early warning of a COVID-19 outbreak. In this study, presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples was investigated and was compared with the number of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in the study area during COVID-19 outbreak in Japan. In total, 45 influent wastewater samples were collected from five wastewater treatment plants in Ishikawa and Toyama prefectures in Japan. During the study period, the numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in these prefectures increased from 0.3 and 0 to >20 per 100,000 people. SARS-CoV-2 ribonucleic acid (RNA) in the samples was detected using several PCR-based assays. Of the 45 samples, 21 were positive for SARS-CoV-2 according to at least one of the three quantitative RT-PCR assays. The detection frequency increased when the number of total confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in 100,000 people exceeded 10 in each prefecture; however, SARS-CoV-2 could also be detected at a low frequency even when the number was below 1.0. SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater could be detected in the early stage of the epidemic, even if the number of confirmed cases potentially underestimates the actual numbers of cases. This suggests that WBE approach can potentially act as an early warning of COVID-19 outbreaks in Japan.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Akihiko Hata
- Faculty of Engineering, Toyama Prefectural University, Japan
| | | | - Yuno Meuchi
- Faculty of Engineering, Toyama Prefectural University, Japan
| | - Shota Imai
- Faculty of Engineering, Toyama Prefectural University, Japan
| | - Ryo Honda
- Faculty of Geosciences and Civil Engineering, Kanazawa University, Japan; Research Center for Environmental Quality Management, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Japan.
| |
Collapse
|
48
|
Kranjac AW, Kranjac D. Decomposing Differences in Coronavirus disease 2019-related Case-Fatality Rates across Seventeen Nations. Pathog Glob Health 2021; 115:100-107. [PMID: 33380287 PMCID: PMC8550281 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2020.1868824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2020] [Accepted: 12/18/2020] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
As of 1 November 2020, estimated case-fatality rates associated with coronavirus disease 2019 are not uniformly patterned across the world and differ substantially in magnitude. Given the global spatial heterogeneity in case-fatality rates, we applied the Blinder-Oaxaca regression decomposition technique to identify how putative sociodemographic, structural, and environmental sources influence variation in case-fatality rates. We show that compositional and associational differences in country-level risk factors explain a substantial proportion of the coronavirus disease 2019-related case-fatality rate gap across nations. Asian countries fair better vis-à-vis case-fatality rate differences mainly due to variation in returns to sociodemographic, structural, and environmental sources among their citizens, relative to those who share similar attributes but live in Europe or North America. The variation in case-fatality rate is driven by Asian populations being better able to buffer the harmful effects of the very risk factors purported to exacerbate the risk of coronavirus disease 2019-related death. The dire circumstances in which we find ourselves demand better understanding of how preexisting conditions across countries contribute to observed disparities in case-fatality rates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Dinko Kranjac
- Department of Psychology, University of La Verne, La Verne, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
49
|
López-Izquierdo R, Del Campo F, Eiros JM. [Influence of positive SARS-CoV-2 CRP on hospital admissions for COVID-19 in a Spanish health area]. Med Clin (Barc) 2021; 156:407-408. [PMID: 33602560 PMCID: PMC7846240 DOI: 10.1016/j.medcli.2020.12.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2020] [Revised: 12/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Raúl López-Izquierdo
- Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Río Hortega, Valladolid, España; Departamento de Cirugía, Oftalmología, Otorrinolaringología y Fisioterapia, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, España
| | - Félix Del Campo
- Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, España; Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario Río Hortega, Valladolid, España; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Bioingenieria, Biomateriales y Nanomedicina (IBER-BBN), Valladolid, España.
| | - José María Eiros
- Servicio de Microbiología, Hospital Universitario Río Hortega, Valladolid, España; Departamento de Anatomía Patológica, Microbiología, Medicina preventiva y Salud Pública, Medicina Legal y Forense, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, España
| |
Collapse
|
50
|
Ganiny S, Nisar O. Mathematical modeling and a month ahead forecast of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: an Indian scenario. MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 2021; 7:29-40. [PMID: 33490366 PMCID: PMC7813670 DOI: 10.1007/s40808-020-01080-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2020] [Accepted: 12/31/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
India, the second-most populous country in the world is witnessing a daily surge in the COVID-19 infected cases. India is currently among the worst-hit nations worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic and ranks just behind Brazil and the USA. The prediction of the future course of the pandemic is thus of utmost importance in order to prevent further worsening of the situation. In this paper, we develop models for the past trajectory (March 01, 2020-July 25, 2020) and also make a month-long (July 26, 2020-August 24, 2020) forecast of the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in India by using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. We determine the most optimal ARIMA model (ARIMA(7,2,2)) based on the statistical parameters viz. root-mean-squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ). Subsequently, the developed model is used to obtain a one month-long forecast for the cumulative cases, active cases, recoveries, and the number of fatalities. According to our forecasting results, India is likely to have 3800,989 cumulative infected cases, 1634,142 cumulative active cases, 2110,697 cumulative recoveries, and 56,150 cumulative deaths by August 24, 2020, if the current trend of the pandemic continues to prevail. The implications of these forecasts are that in the upcoming month, the infection rate of COVID-19 in India is going to escalate, while the rate of recovery and the case-fatality rate is likely to reduce. In order to avert these possible scenarios, the administration and health-care personnel need to formulate and implement robust control measures, while the general public needs to be more responsible and strictly adhere to the established and newly formulated guidelines in order to slow down the spread of the pandemic and prevent it from transforming into a catastrophe.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Suhail Ganiny
- Mechanical Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, Hazratbal, Srinagar, J&K 190006 India
| | - Owais Nisar
- College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Science and Technology, Shalimar, Srinagar, J&K 190025 India
| |
Collapse
|