Belief in conspiracy theories. The role of paranormal belief, paranoid ideation and schizotypy

Conspiracy mentality in autistic and non-autistic individuals

BACKGROUND

Belief in conspiracy theories has emerged across times and cultures. While previous accounts attributed conspiracy beliefs to mental health conditions, accumulating research suggests that conspiracy theories are common among the general population. In the present study we examined whether conspiracy mentality - that is, a general predisposition to believe conspiracy theories - differed between a group of autistic adults and a general population sample.

METHODS

This study included an autistic sample (n = 682) and a general population sample (n = 4358). Participants' conspiracy mentality was measured using the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire (CMQ).

RESULTS

A one-way ANCOVA (controlling for participants' age, gender, educational level, and ethnicity) revealed no difference in conspiracy mentality between an autism and a community sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study suggests that being autistic, or having more autistic traits, does not predict conspiracy mentality. These findings underscore that autism does not predispose people to conspiracy theories and suggest that autism is neither a risk factor for, nor a protective factor against, conspiracy mentality.

Prevalence, patterns and predictors of paranormal beliefs in The Netherlands: a several-analysts approach

Paranormal beliefs encompass a wide variety of phenomena, including the existence of supernatural entities such as ghosts and witches, as well as extraordinary human abilities such as telepathy and clairvoyance. In the current study, we used a nationally representative sample ( N = 2534 ) to investigate the presence and correlates of paranormal beliefs among the secular Dutch population. The results indicated that most single paranormal phenomena (e.g. belief in clairvoyance) are endorsed by 10-20% of Dutch respondents; however, 55.6% of respondents qualify as paranormal believers based on the preregistered criterion that they believe in at least one phenomenon with considerable certainty. In addition, we invited four analysis teams with different methodological expertise to assess the structure of paranormal beliefs using traditional factor analysis, network analysis, Bayesian network analysis and latent class analysis (LCA). The teams' analyses indicated adequate fit of a four-factor structure reported in a 1985 study, but also emphasized different conclusions across techniques; network analyses showed evidence against strong connectedness within most clusters, and suggested a five-cluster structure. The application of various analytic techniques painted a nuanced picture of paranormal beliefs and believers in The Netherlands and suggests that despite increased secularization, subgroups of the general population still believe in paranormal phenomena.

Identifying psychological predictors of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: A machine learning study

BACKGROUND

Major barriers to addressing SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy include limited knowledge of what causes delay/refusal of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and limited ability to predict who will remain unvaccinated over significant time periods despite vaccine availability. The present study begins to address these barriers by developing a machine learning model that prospectively predicts who will persist in not vaccinating against SARS-CoV-2.

METHOD

Unvaccinated individuals (n = 325) who completed a baseline survey were followed over the six-month period when vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 were first widely available (April-October 2021). A random forest model was used to predict who would remain unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 from their baseline measures, including demographic information (e.g., age), medical history (e.g., of influenza vaccination), Health-Belief Model constructs (e.g., perceived vaccine dangerousness), conspiracist ideation, and task-based metrics of vulnerability to conspiracist ideation (e.g., tendency toward illusory pattern perception).

RESULTS

The resulting model significantly predicted vaccination status (AUC-PR = 0.77, 95%CI [0.56 0.90]). At the optimal probability threshold determined by the Generalized Threshold Shifting Protocol, the model was moderately precise (0.83) when identifying individuals who remained unvaccinated (n = 80), and had a very low rate (0.04) of false-positives (incorrectly suggesting that individuals remained unvaccinated). Permutational importance tests suggested that baseline SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intentions conveyed the most information about future SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status. Conspiracist ideation was the second most informative predictor, suggesting that misinformation influences vaccination behavior. Other important predictors included perceived vaccine dangerousness, as expected under the Health Belief Model, and influenza vaccination history.

CONCLUSIONS

The model we developed can accurately and prospectively identify individuals who remain unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. It could therefore facilitate empirically-informed allocation of interventions that encourage vaccine uptake. The predictive value of conspiracist ideation, perceived vaccine dangerousness, and vaccine intentions in our model is consistent with potential causal relations between these variables and SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake.

Variations in positive well-being as a function of the interaction between paranormal belief and schizotypy

This study examined variations in positive well-being as a function of paranormal belief and schizotypy. A sample of 2,362 United Kingdom-based respondents completed self-report measures assessing paranormal belief, schizotypy, positive well-being (meaning in life, satisfaction with life, and self-esteem), paranormal experience, and belief in conspiracies. The paranormal belief was most strongly related to the cognitive-perceptual factor of schizotypy. Both paranormal belief and the cognitive-perceptual factor were associated with reporting paranormal experiences and endorsement of conspiracist beliefs. Despite commonality, paranormal belief and schizotypy were differentially related to well-being. Paranormal belief correlated positively with meaning in life (presence and search) and satisfaction with life. Schizotypy correlated negatively with presence, satisfaction with life, and self-esteem and positively with search. Latent profile analysis identified four subgroups: Profile 1, low belief and schizotypy (49% of the sample); Profile 2, low belief and cognitive-perceptual, moderate interpersonal and disorganised (13.6%); Profile 3, high belief, moderate cognitive-perceptual and interpersonal, low disorganised (24.3%); and Profile 4, high belief and schizotypy (13.1%). Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) found that low belief with mixed schizotypy was associated with lower presence, and low belief and schizotypy (vs. high) were related to higher presence. Paranormal belief and schizotypy were associated with greater search, higher scores on paranormal experiential factors, and endorsement of generic conspiracist beliefs. Finally, lower belief and schizotypy were concomitant with higher satisfaction with life and self-esteem. Overall, paranormal belief was related to positive well-being, whereas schizotypy was associated with lower positive wellbeing.

Pharmacological Enhancement of Dopamine Neurotransmission Does Not Affect Illusory Pattern Perception

Psychotic symptoms and delusional beliefs have been linked to dopamine transmission in both healthy and clinical samples and are assumed to result at least in part from perceiving illusory patterns in noise. However, the existing literature on the role of dopamine in detecting patterns in noise is inconclusive. To address this issue, we assessed the effect of manipulating dopaminergic neurotransmission on illusory pattern perception in healthy individuals (n = 48, n = 19 female) in a double-blind placebo-controlled within-subjects design (see preregistration at https://osf.io/a4k9j/). We predicted individuals on versus off ʟ-DOPA to be more likely to perceive illusory patterns, specifically objects in images containing only noise. Using a signal detection model, however, we found no credible evidence that ʟ-DOPA compared with placebo increased false alarm rates. Further, ʟ-DOPA did not reliably modulate measures of accuracy, discrimination sensitivity, and response bias. In all cases, Bayesian statistics revealed strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. The task design followed previous work on illusory pattern perception and comprised a limited number of items per condition. The results therefore need to be interpreted with caution, as power was limited. Future studies should address illusory pattern perception using more items and take into account potential dose-dependent effects and differential effects in healthy versus clinical samples.

Conspiracy theory beliefs in the adolescent population: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

While the study of conspiracy theory beliefs is a relatively new research area, there has been a rise in academic interest in recent years. The literature provides evidence of relationships between conspiracy theory beliefs and a range of factors, but the vast majority of studies are limited to adult samples, and it is unclear how such beliefs present in adolescence.

METHODS

The systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA-S format. Relevant databases were searched up to February 23, 2023, for quantitative studies related to adolescent conspiracy theory beliefs.

RESULTS

The six included articles show that conspiracy theory beliefs are present from the start of adolescence, and stable from age 14 upwards, with correlations reported for mistrust and paranoid thinking. Negative relationships were reported for cognitive factors such as ontological confusion, cognitive ability, and actively open-minded thinking. Health-related beliefs correlated with adverse childhood experiences, peer problems, conduct, and sociodemographic factors. Right-wing authoritarianism and anxiety positively correlated with intergroup conspiracy theory beliefs.

CONCLUSION

While some factors from adult studies are replicated in the review, there are differences between age groups. The age at which conspiracy theory beliefs begin to form indicate developmental aspects of adolescence, and possibly childhood, that require further examination. Cognitive factors show promise for interventions and should be explored further. However, the lack of studies using adolescent populations is an issue that must be resolved for a greater understanding of conspiracy theory beliefs and a move toward effective interventions.

Psychiatric and non-psychiatric patients during the midst of Covid-19: Pandemic distress, psychosis and the belief in conspiracy theories

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased levels of psychological distress in the general population, at the same time providing a perfect breeding ground for conspiracy beliefs. Psychiatric patients are considered as a population with an increased vulnerability for stressful events, and conspiracy beliefs show overlaps with paranoid ideations. The aim of the present study was to investigate if psychiatric patients experienced higher levels of pandemic distress than non-psychiatric patients, if they were more prone to conspiracy beliefs and if pandemic distress as well as other mental health variables were associated with believing in conspiracy theories.

METHODS

Indicators for mental health (pandemic distress, depressive symptoms, general anxiety symptoms, perceived stress) and indicators for believing in conspiracy theories were assessed within psychiatric (n = 73) and non-psychiatric patients (n = 29) during the midst of the pandemic.

RESULTS

Psychiatric patients reported higher levels of pandemic distress than non-psychiatric patients. Conspiracy measurements correlated positively with pandemic distress, but not with anxiety and depression. No differences were found between psychiatric patients with or without psychotic disorder and non-psychiatric patients in regard to conspiracy measurements.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest a higher susceptibility of psychiatric patients to pandemic distress, but not an increased level of believing in conspiracy theories. The common notion that people suffering from psychosis are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories was not supported. Furthermore, distress caused by a specific event and not anxiety per se seems to be related to the degree of conspiracy beliefs.

The role of maladaptive personality traits on psychological stress the mediating effects of COVID-19-related worries and emotional dysregulation

There is increasing evidence that dysfunctional personality traits, related to psychological maladjustment and psychopathology, can play an important role in a person's ability to cope with major stressful events. Relatively little is known about the specific effect of the emotional component on the relationship between maladaptive personality traits and psychological stress. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between the maladaptive personality traits of psychoticism, detachment, and negative affect, and psychological stress, considering the effects of COVID-19-related worries and emotional dysregulation. An online survey was administered to 1172 adult participants. A series of path analysis models showed that maladaptive personality traits (psychoticism, detachment, and negative affect) are related to psychological stress. COVID-19-related worries and emotional dysregulation partially explained this association. The results suggest that in the early months of 2022, during the reduction of government restrictions, although the world population was no longer in nationwide lockdown, the COVID-19-related emotional component could still explain, at least in part, the association between maladaptive personality traits and psychological stress.

Dunning-Kruger effect and flat-earthers: An exploratory analysis

This article aims to analyze the factors influencing belief in a flat Earth. We focus on Spain, a country that sadly has some of the most relevant figures on this topic in the Spanish-speaking world. After a qualitative analysis of YouTube videos on the main channels on the subject, a survey was carried out on 1252 individuals. The results point to two conclusions. First is the presence of a considerable Dunning-Kruger effect among flat-earthers. There is a significant negative correlation between science literacy-overall and practically all its dimensions-and overconfidence in science in this group. The second, evaluated through a regression tree, confirms that the interaction of low scientific literacy and overconfidence is highly relevant in explaining the belief in a flat earth. Neither factor alone is determinant, but the combination of the two (low scientific literacy and high overconfidence) leads to high levels of flat earth belief.

Conspiracy beliefs are associated with a reduction in frontal beta power and biases in categorizing ambiguous stimuli

Prior beliefs, such as conspiracy beliefs, significantly influence our perception of the natural world. However, the brain activity associated with perceptual decision-making in conspiracy beliefs is not well understood. To shed light on this topic, we conducted a study examining the EEG activity of believers, and skeptics during resting state with perceptual decision-making task. Our study shows that conspiracy beliefs are related to the reduced power of beta frequency band. Furthermore, skeptics tended to misclassify ambiguous face stimuli as houses more frequently than believers. These results help to explain the differences in brain activity between believers and skeptics, especially in how conspiracy beliefs impact the categorization of ambiguous stimuli.

Acceptance and Adherence to COVID-19 Preventive Measures are Shaped Predominantly by Conspiracy Beliefs, Mistrust in Science and Fear - A Comparison of More than 20 Psychological Variables

The global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic sparked a great interest in psychological factors that determine or explain peoples' responses to the novel threatening situation and the preventive measures (e.g. wearing masks, social distancing). In this study, we focused on contaminated mindware (conspiracy and paranormal beliefs) and investigated its relationship with both acceptance of and adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures, along with other variables from the domains of emotion (trait anxiety, fear), traditional personality traits (Big 5, locus of control, optimism/pessimism) and motivation (self-control, dispositional regulatory focus). A total of 22 variables were measured in an online survey (N = 374) that took place during the second wave of COVID-19 (Nov. 2020 - March 2021) in Switzerland. Of all variables, the endorsement of specific COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs was most strongly associated with lower acceptance and adherence to the preventive measures, together with mistrust in science and a more right-wing political orientation. In contrast, fear of COVID-19 and prevention regulatory focus were positively associated with acceptance and adherence. Our results therefore highlight the importance of fighting (conspiratorial) misinformation and of increasing the perceived credibility of science in reducing the spread of the coronavirus. Moreover, when acceptance was used as predictor for adherence, agreeableness and dispositional prevention regulatory focus still explained unique variance in adherence, suggesting that such personality and motivational variables play an important role in adhering and regulating preventive behaviour independent from the attitude towards the preventive measures themselves.

Social Worldviews Predict the General Factor of Paranormal and Generic Conspiracist Beliefs

Even though wide access to any warranted information in the modern age, the problem of unfounded belief is still relevant, since these beliefs often lead to negative consequences (e.g., vaccination refusal, homeopathic treatment, etc.). The aim of this study was testing the relationship of social worldviews with paranormal beliefs and conspiracy beliefs. We assumed dimensionality hypothesis based on functional standpoint that there should be a general factor (underlying all the domains of paranormal beliefs and generic conspiracist beliefs), which has associations with the social worldviews as well. Derived our analysis from the survey of 228 participants (M_age = 30.6, SD = 11.7), we found that (a) the structure of paranormal and generic conspiracist beliefs can be described by a bifactor model; (b) the general factor of paranormal and generic conspiracist beliefs in the bifactor model was positively associated with global belief in just world and dangerous worldview; (c) paranormal beliefs were positively associated with global belief in just world and negatively associated with competitive worldview; (d) generic conspiracist beliefs were positively associated with dangerous worldview, competitive worldview, and zero-sum game belief; (e) contrary to our hypotheses, there was no evidence for any negative association of paranormal beliefs with dangerous worldview or zero-sum game belief and for any negative association of generic conspiracist beliefs with global belief in just world. We claim that the unfounded beliefs can be of some functional nature, demonstrating a connection with social worldviews, which opens up new perspectives for considering this problem within the framework of social psychology.

Linking paranormal and conspiracy beliefs to illusory pattern perception through signal detection theory

Previous research indicates that irrational beliefs (Paranormal beliefs & conspiracy theory endorsement) are associated with the perception of patterns in noise, but the previous findings do not conclusively describe this relationship. This study aims to disentangle the underlying parameters of this association by applying a signal detection theory approach, thus allowing to distinguish illusory pattern perception (false alarms) from perceptual sensitivity and response tendencies-while also taking base rate information into account. Results from a large sample (N = 723) indicate that paranormal beliefs relate to a more liberal response bias and a lower perceptual sensitivity, and that this relationship is driven by illusory pattern perception. Such a clear pattern could not be observed for conspiracy beliefs, for which the increase in false alarm rates was moderated by the base rate. The associations between irrational beliefs and illusory pattern perception were however less substantial compared to other sources of variance. Implications are discussed.

Following the COVID-19 playbook and battling another infodemic: conspiracy beliefs around human monkeypox among the Lebanese population

INTRODUCTION

The non-endemic multicountry outbreak of monkeypox (MPX) has emphasized the issue of conspiracy theories that go viral in times of societal crisis. Now, it is the turn of MPX to join COVID-19 in the conspiracy theory realm. Social media outlets were flooded by a scourge of misinformation as soon as MPX cases began to appear with an evident cross-pollination between diverse conspiracy theories. Given the adverse consequences of conspiracy beliefs, this study aimed to assess the extent of endorsement of MPX conspiracy beliefs among the Lebanese population and to identify its associated factors.

METHODS

Using a convenience sampling technique, a web-based cross section was conducted among Lebanese adults. Data were collected using an Arabic self-reported questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify the factors associated with the MPX conspiracy beliefs scale.

RESULTS

Conspiracy beliefs regarding emerging viruses including MPX were detected among 59.1% of Lebanese adults. Participants endorsed particularly the conspiracy theories linking the virus to a deliberate attempt to reduce the size of the global population (59.6%), gain political control (56.6%) or pharmaceutical companies' financial gain (39.3%), in addition to the manmade origin of MPX (47.5%). Remarkably, the majority of surveyed adults exhibited a negative attitude toward the government's preparedness for a potential MPX outbreak. However, a positive attitude was revealed toward the effectiveness of precautionary measures (69.6%). Female participants and those having a good health status were less likely to exhibit a higher level of conspiracy beliefs. On the contrary, divorced or widowed adults, those having a low economic situation, poor knowledge level, and negative attitude either toward the government or precautionary measures were more prone to disclose a higher level of conspiracy beliefs. Notably, participants relying on social media to get information about MPX were also more likely to have a higher level of conspiracy beliefs compared to their counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

The widespread extent of conspiracy beliefs endorsement regarding MPX among the Lebanese population urged the policymakers to find ways to reduce people's reliance on these theories. Future studies exploring the harmful impacts of conspiracy beliefs on health behaviors are recommended.

Approaching differential diagnosis and decisional capacity assessment in the context of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: A narrative review and clinical discussion

OBJECTIVE

COVID-19 conspiracy theories have become widespread since the onset of the pandemic and compound the existing challenges of decisional capacity assessment. This paper aims to review the literature pertaining to decisional capacity assessment in the context of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and synthesize a practical approach with an emphasis on differential diagnosis and clinical pearls for the practicing physician.

METHODS

We reviewed papers on decisional capacity assessment and differential diagnosis in the context of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. A literature search was conducted using the US National Library of Medicine's PubMed.gov resource and Google Scholar.

RESULTS

The resulting article content was utilized to synthesize a practical approach to decisional capacity assessment in the context of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. Specifically, aspects related to the history, taxonomy, evaluation, and management are reviewed.

CONCLUSIONS

Appreciating the nuanced differences between delusions, overvalued ideas, and obsessions while with integrating the non-cognitive domains of capacity into the assessment are crucial to navigating the wide differential diagnosis of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. It is important to attempt to clarify and optimize patient decision-making abilities by addressing circumstances, attitudes, and cognitive styles specific to patients with seemingly irrational beliefs about COVID-19.

Illusory perception of visual patterns in pure noise is associated with COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs

Just as perceptual heuristics can lead to visual illusions, cognitive heuristics can lead to biased judgements, such as "illusory pattern perception" (i.e., seeing patterns in unrelated events). Here we further investigated the common underlying mechanism behind irrational beliefs and illusory pattern perception in visual images. For trials in which no object was present in the noise, we found that the tendency to report seeing an object was positively correlated with the endorsement of both COVID-19 specific conspiracy theories and paranormal beliefs. The present results suggest that the cognitive bias to see meaningful connections in noise can have an impact on socio-political cognition as well as on perceptual decision making.

What Are Conspiracy Theories? A Definitional Approach to Their Correlates, Consequences, and Communication

Conspiracy theories are abundant in social and political discourse, with serious consequences for individuals, groups, and societies. However, psychological scientists have started paying close attention to them only in the past 20 years. We review the spectacular progress that has since been made and some of the limitations of research so far, and we consider the prospects for further progress. To this end, we take a step back to analyze the defining features that make conspiracy theories different in kind from other beliefs and different in degree from each other. We consider how these features determine the adoption, consequences, and transmission of belief in conspiracy theories, even though their role as causal or moderating variables has seldom been examined. We therefore advocate for a research agenda in the study of conspiracy theories that starts-as is routine in fields such as virology and toxicology-with a robust descriptive analysis of the ontology of the entity at its center.

Who falls for fake news? Psychological and clinical profiling evidence of fake news consumers

Awareness of the potential psychological significance of false news increased during the coronavirus pandemic, however, its impact on psychopathology and individual differences remains unclear. Acknowledging this, the authors investigated the psychological and psychopathological profiles that characterize fake news consumption. A total of 1452 volunteers from the general population with no previous psychiatric history participated. They responded to clinical psychopathology assessment tests. Respondents solved a fake news screening test, which allowed them to be allocated to a quasi-experimental condition: group 1 (non-fake news consumers) or group 2 (fake news consumers). Mean comparison, Bayesian inference, and multiple regression analyses were applied. Participants with a schizotypal, paranoid, and histrionic personality were ineffective at detecting fake news. They were also more vulnerable to suffer its negative effects. Specifically, they displayed higher levels of anxiety and committed more cognitive biases based on suggestibility and the Barnum Effect. No significant effects on psychotic symptomatology or affective mood states were observed. Corresponding to these outcomes, two clinical and therapeutic recommendations related to the reduction of the Barnum Effect and the reinterpretation of digital media sensationalism were made. The impact of fake news and possible ways of prevention are discussed.

Antivax attitude in the general population along the autism-schizophrenia continuum and the impact of socio-demographic factors

Introduction

One of the most important inventions in human history is vaccines. However, to date a consistent amount of people exhibit a hesitant approach toward them and mixed results have emerged in the attempt to characterize which factors may play a role in predicting such negative attitude. Here, we aimed at investigating how the individual scoring along the autism-schizophrenic continuum component and socio-cultural factors contribute toward vaccination attitudes in the general population.

Methods

To test whether individual position along the autism-schizophrenic continuum could predict vaccine attitude, we used principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the component showing diametric loading between the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ) and Autistic Quotient (AQ) subscales. Then, we performed a series of multiple linear regression analyses to understand the relation between the ASD-SSD continuum component and Vax scores. We also included socio-demographic factors (i.e., gender, education level, and age) as predictors.

Results

Multiple regression analysis revealed that the closer the individual lied on the positive schizotypal pole, the higher was their negative attitude toward vaccines. A diametric, more favorable disposition was found for individuals closer to the autistic end of the continuum. Furthermore, we reported that among the socio-cultural factors, only age can be considered a significant predictor of vaccination attitudes, with younger participants showing a more positive attitudes toward vaccination, while the level of education is an important protective factor in mitigating the negative impact that the proximity to the SSD pole and age play against vaccination disposition.

Discussion

These findings are relevant to improve targeted public health interventions, highlighting the crucial role of demographic, psychological, and social correlates in predicting anti-vax beliefs, which have the devasting potential to increase the spread of infectious disease.

[Conspiracy as a surrogate for religion? Religiosity, spirituality, and affinity towards conspiracy myths in times of crisis]

In times of crisis, alternative interpretations of the world that challenge the public sphere gain impact. During the COVID-19 pandemic, such narratives spread in the form of conspiracy myths. They give explanations for complex questions by assuming that social events are planned and controlled by secret elites. Moreover, they are often based on pseudo-transcendental explanations that defy scrutiny but fill fateful events with meaning. In this context, the question arises whether conspiracy myths contain religious or spiritual elements. In this study, we use a representative population survey conducted in April 2022 in German- and French-speaking Switzerland (n = 1221) to examine the relationship between spirituality, religiosity, and affinity toward conspiracy myths. The results show that emotional concern during the COVID-19 pandemic is an important predictor related to conspiracy affinity. The more negative the emotional concern, the higher the affinity towards conspiracy myths. Conversely, positive emotions during the pandemic negatively affect conspiracy affinity. While religious affiliations and religiosity hardly influence conspiracy affinity, spirituality turns out to be the most important predictor in our study. We conclude that in secularized societies spirituality without involvement in traditional religious communities can result in an increased openness to conspiracy myths as a surrogate for religion.

Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories are part of mainstream public life, with the potential to undermine governments, promote racism, ignite extremism and threaten public health efforts. Psychological research on conspiracy theories is booming, with more than half of the academic articles on the topic published since 2019. In this Review, we synthesize the literature with an eye to understanding the psychological factors that shape willingness to believe conspiracy theories. We begin at the individual level, examining the cognitive, clinical, motivational, personality and developmental factors that predispose people to believe conspiracy theories. Drawing on insights from social and evolutionary psychology, we then review research examining conspiracy theories as an intergroup phenomenon that reflects and reinforces societal fault lines. Finally, we examine how conspiracy theories are shaped by the economic, political, cultural and socio-historical contexts at the national level. This multilevel approach offers a deep and broad insight into conspiracist thinking that increases understanding of the problem and offers potential solutions.

Conspiratorial thinking as a precursor to opposition to COVID-19 vaccination in the US: a multi-year study from 2018 to 2021

Despite widespread availability of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines in the US, only about 66% of the eligible US population had taken the recommended initial doses of the COVID-19 vaccines as of April 2022. Explanations for this hesitancy have focused on misinformation about the vaccines, lack of trust in health authorities, and acceptance of conspiracy theories about the pandemic. Here we test whether those with a conspiratorial mindset, which distrusts a wide range of institutions, were poised to reject COVID vaccines before the pandemic even began. To answer that question, we reinterviewed members of a national US panel that we had previously surveyed beginning in 2018. As hypothesized, having a conspiratorial mindset in 2019 predicted COVID-vaccination hesitancy in 2021 better than prior trust in health authorities or acceptance of vaccine misinformation. Those with the mindset were also more likely to consume media that bolstered belief in pandemic conspiracies. Research is needed on the determinants of conspiratorial mindset and ways to minimize the likelihood that consequential health decisions will be influenced by it.

You believe what?!: Relational closeness and belief relevance predict conspiracy belief tolerance

Hardly a day passes without seeing the negative consequences of conspiracy beliefs manifest in headline news. While a great deal of research has examined the causes and consequences of believing conspiracy theories, relatively little research has examined the reaction to one's belief in conspiracy theories from one's social network. We asked participants to indicate how they would react if a family member, friend, or co-worker believed a series of conspiracy theories (e.g., Would they be willing to tolerate those beliefs? Would they be willing to confront those beliefs?). Also, we examined the role of Actively Openminded Thinking (AOT; Svedholm-Hakkinen & Lindeman, 2018) to examine the extent to which it predicted the belief in conspiracy theories and the acceptance of those beliefs in others. Study 1 and Study 2 were nearly identical, except the former consisted of an internet sample and the latter consisted of college students. Together, the data from these studies revealed that conspiracy beliefs that had direct consequences for the participant were less likely to be tolerated and more likely to be confronted. The closer the relationship of the believer to the participant, the more likely the participant was to tolerate and confront the belief. Finally, AOT scores were associated with a decreased tendency to believe in conspiracies and an increased tendency to confront those beliefs in others. These data inform our understanding of social and individual factors that lead to confrontation of conspiracy beliefs and increase our understanding of the AOT construct.

Some problems with particularism

Particularists maintain that conspiracy theories are to be assessed individually, while generalists hold that conspiracy theories may be assessed as a class. This paper seeks to clarify the nature and importance of the debate between particularism and generalism, while offering an argument for a version of generalism. I begin by considering three approaches to the definition of conspiracy theory, and offer reason to prefer an approach that defines conspiracy theories in opposition to the claims of epistemic authorities. I argue that particularists rely on an untenably broad definition of conspiracy theory. Then, I argue that particularism and its counterpart are best understood as constellations of theses, rather than a pair of incompatible theses. While some particularist theses are highly plausible, I argue that one important particularist thesis is false. The argument for this conclusion draws on the history of false conspiracy theories. I then defend this conclusion against a pair of potential objections.

Interconnectedness and (in)coherence as a signature of conspiracy worldviews

Conspiracy theories may arise out of an overarching conspiracy worldview that identifies common elements of subterfuge across unrelated or even contradictory explanations, leading to networks of self-reinforcing beliefs. We test this conjecture by analyzing a large natural language database of conspiracy and nonconspiracy texts for the same events, thus linking theory-driven psychological research with data-driven computational approaches. We find that, relative to nonconspiracy texts, conspiracy texts are more interconnected, more topically heterogeneous, and more similar to one another, revealing lower cohesion within texts but higher cohesion between texts and providing strong empirical support for an overarching conspiracy worldview. Our results provide inroads for classification algorithms and further exploration into individual differences in belief structures.

Dispositional and ideological factor correlate of conspiracy thinking and beliefs

This study explored how the Big Five personality traits, as well as measures of personality disorders, are related to two different measures of conspiracy theories (CTs)The two measures correlated r = .58 and were applied to examine generalisability of findings. We also measured participants (N = 397) general knowledge levels and ideology in the form of religious and political beliefs. Results show that the Big Five and ideology are related to CTs but these relationships are generally wiped out by the stronger effects of the personality disorder scales. Two personality disorder clusters (A and B) were significant correlates of both CT measures, in both cases accounting for similar amounts of variance (20%). The personality disorders most predictive of conspiracy theories were related to the A cluster, characterized by schizotypal symptoms such as oddities of thinking and loose associations. These findings were corroborated by an additional analysis using Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA). LSA demonstrated that the items measuring schizotypal and related symptoms are cognitively related to both our measures of CTs. The implications for the studying of CTs is discussed, and limitations are acknowledged.

Profiles in conspiracism: Associations with two psychiatric syndromes, religiosity and pandemic-related health behaviors

Introduction

Conspiratorial beliefs are often maladaptive for individuals and dangerous for societies. Other prevalent belief systems such as (normative) religious belief and (pathological) delusional belief show parallels to conspiratorial beliefs, which may also be linked to excessive social media exposure. We conducted an online survey to characterize heterogeneous profiles of conspiracy-mindedness, with respect to these other phenomena.

Methods

Eight hundred and thirty six American adults from online panels completed validated questionnaires including the Conspiracy Mindedness Questionnaire (CMQ), Centrality of Religion Scale (CRS), Peters Delusion Inventory (PDI; 21-item version), and Facebook Addiction Scale (FAS). Additionally, they completed 4 questions addressing categorical belief in the origin of SARS-CoV-2, and pandemic-related health behaviors. Total scores on each questionnaire were Z-transformed and entered into K-means cluster analysis. Cluster membership was used in post-hoc analyses to compare pandemic-related items.

Results

An optimal solution included 3 clusters with above-mean (high) CMQ and 3 below-mean (low) CMQ scores. The 3 high-CMQ clusters included: (1) high-religion, low-social media addiction; (2) high religion, social media addiction and delusion; (3) low religion and delusion. High-CMQ clusters 1 and 2 each had rates of zoonotic and malevolent viral origin beliefs that were relatively lower and higher than the grand sample rates, respectively. Significant differences in intended pandemic health-related behaviors among the high-CMQ clusters (compared to the rest of the sample) included Cluster 1-high on Precautions and low on Vaccination; Cluster 2-high on Testing. Respondents who endorsed SARS-CoV-2 origin beliefs (across clusters) that were least plausible and most malevolent were least inclined to engage in pandemic health behaviors.

Conclusions

Distinct subpopulations of persons with high conspiracy-mindedness exist, which are highly heterogeneous in their other coexisting beliefs and behaviors. Some of these may be pathological, such as delusional belief and social media addiction-like behavior, and they have varied associations with pandemic-related belief and behavior. These results, while cross-sectional, suggest that the psychological origins and consequences of conspiratorial beliefs may not be unitary. Instead, conspiratorial belief may be a common expression of diverse psychological and social/experiential factors, and in turn exert varied influence on decisions and overt behavior.

Paranoid beliefs and conspiracy mentality are associated with different forms of mistrust: A three-nation study

Paranoia and conspiracy are terms typically used interchangeably. However, although the underlying content of these types of beliefs might be similar (e.g., seeing others as powerful and threatening), recent research suggests that these constructs differ in important ways. One important feature shared by both constructs is excessive mistrust but this aspect might play different roles in each belief system. In this study we explored the strength of associations of different trust predictors (i.e., trust in institutions, trust in sources of information, perceptual trust, and interpersonal trust) between conspiracy mentality and paranoid beliefs. We tested this association in a large representative multinational sample (United Kingdom n = 2025; Spain n = 1951; and Ireland n = 1041). Confirmatory factor analysis supported a two-factor model of conspiracy and paranoid beliefs in each nation sample. Path and equality of constraints analysis revealed that paranoia was more strongly associated with perceptual mistrust (bias towards mistrusting unfamiliar faces) whereas conspiracy was more strongly associated with mistrust in political institutions. Although interpersonal mistrust and trust in social sources of information were associated significantly with conspiracy their association with paranoid beliefs was stronger. These findings clarify the role of different trust processes in both belief systems. Limitations of this study are discussed.

Deconstructing the Conspiratorial Mind: the Computational Logic Behind Conspiracy Theories

In the social sciences, research on conspiracy theories is accumulating fast. To contribute to this research, here I introduce a computational model about the psychological processes underlying support for conspiracy theories. The proposal is that endorsement of these theories depends on three factors: prior beliefs, novel evidence, and expected consequences. Thanks to the latter, a conspiracy hypothesis might be selected because it is the costliest to reject even if it is not the best supported by evidence and by prior beliefs (i.e., even if it is not the most accurate). In this way, the model implies a key role for motivated reasoning. By examining the social conditions that favour the success of conspiracy theories, the paper embeds the model, whose focus is primarily psychological, within the broader social context, and applies this analysis to probe the role of conspiracy theories within contemporary Western societies. Altogether, the paper argues that a computational outlook can contribute to elucidate the socio-psychological dynamics underlying the attractiveness of conspiracy theories.

The relation of individual and collective narcissism and belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories: the moderating effects of need for uniqueness and belonging

The Covid-19 pandemic not only led to chaos and uncertainty, it also brought about many conspiracy theories. In the last two decades, with considerable amount of research, social psychologists have begun to unravel the personality traits underlying conspiracy theories. One such trait is narcissism where the need to distinguish oneself from others might be satisfied by holding beliefs that are different from the general population. In this research, we focus, for the first time in the literature, on both collective and grandiose narcissism’s predictive effects on Covid-19 conspiracy theories and the possible moderation of need for uniqueness (feeling oneself to be special and different from others) and belonging (feeling oneself to be part of a larger and worthy whole). In a Turkish sample (N = 309), we found that both collective and grandiose narcissism were significant predictors of Covid-19 conspiracy. In addition, when the need to feel special was high, grandiose narcissists, but not collective narcissists, tended to believe in Covid-19 conspiracies. Finally, we found that generic conspiracy beliefs were also important predictors of Covid-19 conspiracy theories. Our research illuminates the link between narcissism and Covid-19 conspiracy theories. Future research should look for other possible moderating factors between collective narcissism and conspiracy beliefs in the context of Covid-19.

Conspiracy theories in online deliberation on gender identity legislation: Dilemmas of prejudice and political partisanship and implications for LGBTQI+ claims

Conspiracy theories have recently come under the scrutiny of social psychology. While some theorists have treated them as a deficient way of thinking, others have considered them as a form of political rhetoric with important social implications. We focus on conspiracy theories in the context of online public deliberation on legislation allowing registration of self-defined gender in Greece. Employing the tools of Critical Discursive Psychology, we analyse comments posted on the Ministry of Justice's website created for public consultation about the law change. We focus on the mobilization of conspiracy theories by people who oppose Law 4491/2017 (“Legal Recognition of Gender Identity – National Mechanism for the Development, Monitoring and Evaluation of Action Plans on Children's Rights and Other Provisions”). These commentators often argued that powerful groups are behind the proposed legislation, aiming at decreasing Earth's population, disrupting moral order, and violating humanness. We demonstrate how these constructions helped participants to perform various tasks, such as delegitimizing the legislation while at the same time avoiding the stigma of prejudice, promoting far-right political practices, and rebutting accusations of political partisanship. The results are discussed in relation to conspiracy theories’ role in countering “gender ideology” and in promoting cisgenderism and heteronormativity.

Antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: A systematic review

RATIONALE

Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories can have severe consequences; it is therefore crucial to understand this phenomenon, in its similarities with general conspiracy belief, but also in how it is context-dependent.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive overview of the available research on COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and to synthesise this research to make it widely accessible.

METHODS

We present a synthesis of COVID-19 conspiracy belief research from 85 international articles, identified and appraised through a systematic review, in line with contemporary protocols and guidelines for systematic reviews.

RESULTS

We identify a number of potential antecedents of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs (individual differences, personality traits, demographic variables, attitudes, thinking styles and biases, group identity, trust in authorities, and social media use), their consequences (protective behaviours, self-centred and misguided behaviours such as hoarding and pseudoscientific health practices, vaccination intentions, psychological wellbeing, and other negative social consequences such as discrimination and violence), and the effect sizes of their relations with the conspiracy beliefs.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that understanding both the potential antecedents and consequences of conspiracy beliefs and how they are context-dependent is highly important to tackle them, whether in the COVID-19 pandemic or future threats, such as that of climate change.

Just a Flu? Self-perceived infection mediates the link between conspiracy beliefs and Covid-19 health beliefs and behaviors

The Covid-19 pandemic has inspired many conspiracy theories, which are associated with detrimental health beliefs and behaviors (e.g. reduced physical distancing; decreased vaccination intentions). We propose a previously unrecognized mediator of these relationships: A self-perceived likelihood to already have experienced a Covid-19 infection. Results from a large sample (N = 9033) revealed that self-perceived infections mediated the link between conspiracy beliefs and health beliefs and behaviors. These findings emerged independently of institutional distrust, and actual infections as indicated by a positive medical test. These findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs shape people's interpretation of the physical signals of their own body.

Why conspiracy theorists are not always paranoid: Conspiracy theories and paranoia form separate factors with distinct psychological predictors

Paranoia and belief in conspiracy theories both involve suspiciousness about the intentions of others but have rarely been studied together. In three studies, one with a mainly student sample (N = 496) and two with more representative UK population samples (N = 1,519, N = 638) we compared single and two-factor models of paranoia and conspiracy theories as well as associations between both belief systems and other psychological constructs. A model with two correlated factors was the best fit in all studies. Both belief systems were associated with poor locus of control (belief in powerful others and chance) and loneliness. Paranoid beliefs were specifically associated with negative self-esteem and, in two studies, insecure attachment; conspiracy theories were associated with positive self-esteem in the two larger studies and narcissistic personality traits in the final study. Conspiracist thinking but not paranoia was associated with poor performance on the Cognitive Reflection Task (poor analytical thinking). The findings suggest that paranoia and belief in conspiracy theories are distinct but correlated belief systems with both common and specific psychological components.

Political Ideology, Ingroup Favoritism, and Conspiratorial Thinking: Patriotism, Nationalism, and COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories

This article examined the relationship between ideology and conspiratorial thinking and the related mediating effect of ingroup favoritism in a non-Western society. We investigated patriotism and nationalism as two favorable orientations toward national ingroups. We also examined their relationship with the general conspiracy mentality and the specific conspiracy beliefs that have emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results revealed that conservative ideology was associated with conspiratorial beliefs in China regardless of the specific conspiracy theories related to ingroups or outgroups, which indicates such tendencies may exist universally across cultures. Patriotism was not associated with conspiracy theories about the origin of COVID-19, whereas nationalism was negatively associated with the conspiracy theories about China (an ingroup) and positively associated with conspiracy theories about the US (an outgroup). Moreover, nationalism mediated the relationship between ideology and specific conspiracy beliefs during the pandemic. The general conspiracy mentality did not predict conspiracy theories about the origin of COVID-19. The results indicate that believing conspiracy theories is not only the result of a stable conspiracy mentality but is also influenced by ideology and intergroup relations.

Impact of conspiracist ideation and psychotic-like experiences in patients with schizophrenia during the COVID-19 crisis

Conspiratorial belief is a type of argument that accepts implausible explanations in situations of great uncertainty or mystery. Claiming that the coronavirus is an artificial fabrication of laboratories is an example of conspiracist belief. The aim of this research was to analyze the impact of conspiracist ideation and psychotic-like experiences in patients with schizophrenia, patients with other mental disorders, and participants with no psychiatric history with a 132-day follow-up during the COVID-19 crisis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied and Bayesian inferences were carried out. The results conclude that conspiracist ideation and psychotic-like experiences increased significantly after 132 days of social-health restrictions in the general population. However, psychotic-like experiences did not increase in patients with schizophrenia. Conspiracist ideation has a quantitative degradation similar to the continuum model of psychosis; it is present both in patients with schizophrenia and in those participants with no clinical history. The psychopathological value of conspiracist ideation within the spectrum of psychosis is discussed.

The entertainment value of conspiracy theories

Many citizens around the globe believe conspiracy theories. Why are conspiracy theories so appealing? Here, we propose that conspiracy theories elicit intense emotions independent of emotional valence. People therefore find conspiracy theories entertaining - that is, narratives that people perceive as interesting, exciting, and attention-grabbing - and such entertainment appraisals are positively associated with belief in them. Five studies supported these ideas. Participants were exposed to either a conspiratorial or a non-conspiratorial text about the Notre Dame fire (Study 1) or the death of Jeffrey Epstein (preregistered Study 2). The conspiratorial text elicited stronger entertainment appraisals and intense emotions (independent of emotional valence) than the non-conspiratorial text; moreover, entertainment appraisals mediated the effects of the manipulation on conspiracy beliefs. Study 3 indicated that participants endorsed stronger conspiracy beliefs when an election event was described in an entertaining rather than a boring manner. Subsequent findings revealed that both organisational (Study 4) and societal conspiracy beliefs (Study 5) are positively associated with sensation seeking - a trait characterised by a preference for exciting and intense experiences. We conclude that one reason why people believe conspiracy theories is because they find them entertaining.

Willingness to vaccinate against SARS-CoV-2: The role of reasoning biases and conspiracist ideation

BACKGR1OUND: Widespread vaccine hesitancy and refusal complicate containment of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Extant research indicates that biased reasoning and conspiracist ideation discourage vaccination. However, causal pathways from these constructs to vaccine hesitancy and refusal remain underspecified, impeding efforts to intervene and increase vaccine uptake.

METHOD

554 participants who denied prior SARS-CoV-2 vaccination completed self-report measures of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intentions, conspiracist ideation, and constructs from the Health Belief Model of medical decision-making (such as perceived vaccine dangerousness) along with tasks measuring reasoning biases (such as those concerning data gathering behavior). Cutting-edge machine learning algorithms (Greedy Fast Causal Inference) and psychometric network analysis were used to elucidate causal pathways to (and from) vaccine intentions.

RESULTS

Results indicated that a bias toward reduced data gathering during reasoning may cause paranoia, increasing the perceived dangerousness of vaccines and thereby reducing willingness to vaccinate. Existing interventions that target data gathering and paranoia therefore hold promise for encouraging vaccination. Additionally, reduced willingness to vaccinate was identified as a likely cause of belief in conspiracy theories, subverting the common assumption that the opposite causal relation exists. Finally, perceived severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and perceived vaccine dangerousness (but not effectiveness) were potential direct causes of willingness to vaccinate, providing partial support for the Health Belief Model's applicability to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

These insights significantly advance our understanding of the underpinnings of vaccine intentions and should scaffold efforts to prepare more effective interventions on hesitancy for deployment during future pandemics.

What drives beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories? The role of psychotic-like experiences and confinement-related factors

RATIONALE

The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide threat to public health and the global economy. The climate of fear and uncertainty associated with the pandemic has fostered the emergence of a wide range of COVID-19 conspiracy theories that have the potential to shape public opinion and hinder the effective dissemination of valid information. Beliefs in conspiracy theories have been associated with maladaptive personality traits such as schizotypy and paranoia, as well as other non-psychotic psychological characteristics (e.g., social isolation, stress).

METHODS

An online survey was conducted to examine the associations between beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and psychotic-like experiences in a Portuguese community sample (N = 438), while also addressing the role of sociodemographic variables, psychological outcomes (e.g., stress, affective states), confinement-related factors (e.g., confinement conditions/behaviors), and pandemic-related factors (e.g., health concerns, financial issues).

RESULTS

Findings suggest that psychotic-like experiences are associated with beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories, particularly perceptual abnormalities and persecutory ideation. Moreover, increased health-related concerns and reduced education levels also seem to be liability factors for these conspiracy beliefs.

CONCLUSION

These results add important insights into how the adherence to illogical and erroneous disease-related arguments can be related to psychotic-like experiences. COVID-19 conspiracy theories are yet another major challenge that governments and policymakers must contemplate when defining strategic directions to manage the current and future pandemics.

Of tinfoil hats and thinking caps: Reasoning is more strongly related to implausible than plausible conspiracy beliefs

People who strongly endorse conspiracy theories typically exhibit biases in domain-general reasoning. We describe an overfitting hypothesis, according to which (a) such theories overfit conspiracy-related data at the expense of wider generalisability, and (b) reasoning biases reflect, at least in part, the need to reduce the resulting dissonance between the conspiracy theory and wider data. This hypothesis implies that reasoning biases should be more closely associated with belief in implausible conspiracy theories (e.g., the moon landing was faked) than with more plausible ones (e.g., the Russian Federation orchestrated the attack on Sergei Skripal). In two pre-registered studies, we found that endorsement of implausible conspiracy theories, but not plausible ones, was associated with reduced information sampling in an information-foraging task and with less reflective reasoning. Thus, the relationship between belief in conspiracy theories and reasoning is not homogeneous, and reasoning is not linked specifically to the "conspiracy" aspect of conspiracy theories. Instead, it may reflect an adaptive response to the tension between implausible theories and other beliefs and data.

Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy, conspiracist beliefs, paranoid ideation and perceived ethnic discrimination in a sample of University students in Venezuela

Due to complex social, political and economic causes, Venezuela has encountered difficulties managing the Covid-19 pandemic. Although a vaccination program has started, it is still comparatively slow and largely inefficient. One particular challenge has been vaccine hesitancy. Venezuelan policymakers have traditionally not rendered much attention to ethnic disparities. In this study, we assess whether vaccine hesitancy varies across ethnic groups, in a sample of 273 Venezuelan university students. Results come out showing that marginalized ethnic groups in Venezuela are more prone to vaccine hesitancy, and also have greater levels of acceptance regarding conspiracy theories. Coefficients of correlation of ethnic discrimination with vaccine hesitancy and conspiracy beliefs are moderate. Coefficients of correlation of paranoid ideation with vaccine hesitancy and conspiracy beliefs are weak. This suggests that in order to successfully complete the vaccination program, policymakers in Venezuela must begin to approach racial disparities.