Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: a time-series analysis

Interactive effects of atmospheric oxidising pollutants and heat waves on the risk of residential mortality

BACKGROUND

The impact of heat waves and atmospheric oxidising pollutants on residential mortality within the framework of global climate change has become increasingly important.

OBJECTIVE

In this research, the interactive effects of heat waves and oxidising pollutants on the risk of residential mortality in Fuzhou were examined. Methods We collected environmental, meteorological, and residential mortality data in Fuzhou from 1 January 2016, to 31 December 2021. We then applied a generalised additive model, distributed lagged nonlinear model, and bivariate three-dimensional model to investigate the effects and interactions of various atmospheric oxidising pollutants and heat waves on the risk of residential mortality.

RESULTS

Atmospheric oxidising pollutants increased the risk of residential mortality at lower concentrations, and O3 and Ox were positively associated with a maximum risk of 2.19% (95% CI: 0.74-3.66) and 1.29% (95% CI: 0.51-2.08). The risk of residential mortality increased with increasing temperature, with a strong and long-lasting effect and a maximum cumulative lagged effect of 1.11% (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23). Furthermore, an interaction between atmospheric oxidising pollutants and heat waves may have occurred: the larger effects in the longest cumulative lag time on residential mortality per 10 µg/m3 increase in O3, NO2 and Ox during heat waves compared to non-heat waves were [-3.81% (95% CI: -14.82, 8.63)]; [-0.45% (95% CI: -2.67, 1.81)]; [67.90% (95% CI: 11.55, 152.71)]; 16.37% (95% CI: 2.43, 32.20)]; [-3.00% (95% CI: -20.80, 18.79)]; [-0.30% (95% CI: -3.53, 3.04)]. The risk on heat wave days was significantly higher than that on non-heat wave days and higher than the separate effects of oxidising pollutants and heat waves.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we found some evidence suggesting that heat waves increase the impact of oxidising atmospheric pollutants on residential mortality to some extent.

A deep transfer learning based convolution neural network framework for air temperature classification using human clothing images

Weather recognition is crucial due to its significant impact on various aspects of daily life, such as weather prediction, environmental monitoring, tourism, and energy production. Several studies have already conducted research on image-based weather recognition. However, previous studies have addressed few types of weather phenomena recognition from images with insufficient accuracy. In this paper, we propose a transfer learning CNN framework for classifying air temperature levels from human clothing images. The framework incorporates various deep transfer learning approaches, including DeepLabV3 Plus for semantic segmentation and others for classification such as BigTransfer (BiT), Vision Transformer (ViT), ResNet101, VGG16, VGG19, and DenseNet121. Meanwhile, we have collected a dataset called the Human Clothing Image Dataset (HCID), consisting of 10,000 images with two categories (High and Low air temperature). All the models were evaluated using various classification metrics, such as the confusion matrix, loss, precision, F1-score, recall, accuracy, and AUC-ROC. Additionally, we applied Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) to emphasize significant features and regions identified by models during the classification process. The results show that DenseNet121 outperformed other models with an accuracy of 98.13%. Promising experimental results highlight the potential benefits of the proposed framework for detecting air temperature levels, aiding in weather prediction and environmental monitoring.

Effect modification of air pollution on the association between heat and mortality in five European countries

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that air pollution modifies the association between heat and mortality. However, most studies have been conducted in cities without rural data. This time-series study examined potential effect modification of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) on heat-related mortality using small-area data from five European countries, and explored the influence of area characteristics.

METHODS

We obtained daily non-accidental death counts from both urban and rural areas in Norway, England and Wales, Germany, Italy, and the Attica region of Greece during the warm season (2000-2018). Daily mean temperatures and air pollutant concentrations were estimated by spatial-temporal models. Heat effect modification by air pollution was assessed in each small area by over-dispersed Poisson regression models with a tensor smoother between temperature and air pollution. We extracted temperature-mortality relationships at the 5th (low), 50th (medium), and 95th (high) percentiles of pollutant distributions. At each air pollution level, we estimated heat-related mortality for a temperature increase from the 75th to the 99th percentile. We applied random-effects meta-analysis to derive the country-specific and overall associations, and mixed-effects meta-regression to examine the influence of urban-rural and coastal typologies and greenness on the heat effect modification by air pollution.

RESULTS

Heat-related mortality risks increased with higher PM levels, rising by 6.4% (95% CI: -2.0%-15.7%), 10.7% (2.6%-19.5%), and 14.1% (4.4%-24.6%) at low, medium, and high PM levels, respectively. This effect modification was consistent in urban and rural regions but more pronounced in non-coastal regions. In addition, heat-mortality associations were slightly stronger at high O3 levels, particularly in regions with low greenness.

CONCLUSION

Our analyses of both urban and rural data indicate that air pollution may intensify heat-related mortality, particularly in non-coastal and less green regions. The synergistic effect of heat and air pollution implies a potential pathway of reducing heat-related health impacts by improving air quality.

The trends of non-accidental mortality burden attributed to compound hot-dry events in China and its provinces in a global warming world

BACKGROUND

Global warming has provoked more co-occurrence of hot extreme and dry extreme, namely compound hot-dry events (CHDEs). However, their health impacts have seldom been investigated. This study aimed to characterize CHDEs and assess its mortality burden in China from 1990 to 2100.

METHODS

CHDEs were defined as a day when daily maximum temperature > its 90th percentile and Standardized Precipitation Index < its 50th percentile. A two-stage approach, including a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and a multivariate meta-analysis, was used to estimate exposure-response associations of CHDEs with mortality in 358 counties/districts during 2006-2017 in China, which was then applied to assess the national mortality burden attributable to CHDEs from 1990 to 2100.

FINDINGS

We observed a significant increasing trend of CHDEs in China until mid-21st century, and then flatted, while the duration and intensity of CHDEs continuously increased across the 21st century. CHDEs were much riskier (ER=17.82 %, 95 %CI: 14.17 %-21.60 %) than independent hot events (ER=5.86 %,95 %CI: -0.04 %,12.45 %) or dry events (ER=0.07 %,95 %CI: -1.22 %, 1.38 %), and there was significantly additive interaction between hot events and dry events (AP=0.10,95 %CI: 0.04, 0.16). Females (ER=24.28 %, 95 %CI: 19.21 %-29.56 %), the elderly (ER=23.28 %, 95 %CI: 18.23 %-28.55 %), and people living in humid area (ER=18.98 %, 95 %CI: 15.08 %-23.02 %) had higher mortality risks than their counterparts. Mortality burden attributed to CHDEs significantly increased during historical observation and became stable since mid-21st century in China.

INTERPRETATION

CHDEs would significantly increase mortality with higher risk for females, the elderly and people living in humid areas. Mortality burden has significantly increased during historical observation and will keep relatively steady since mid-21st century.

Bidirectional modification effects on nonlinear associations of summer temperature and air pollution with first-ever stroke morbidity

High temperature and air pollution may induce stroke morbidity. However, whether associations between high temperature and air pollution with stroke morbidity are modified by each other is still unclear. Data on 23,578 first-ever stroke patients in Shenzhen, China, during the summers of 2014-2018 were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the modifying effects of air pollution stratified by the median for the associations between summer temperature and stroke morbidity at 0-3 lag days; modifying effects of temperature stratified by the minimum morbidity temperature on the associations between air pollution and stroke morbidity at the same lags were also estimated. The attributable risks of high temperature and high pollution on stroke morbidity were quantified. Stratified analyses of gender, age, migration type, and complication type were conducted to assess vulnerable population characteristics. Summer high temperature may induce stroke morbidity at high-level PM2.5, PM10, O3, SO2, and NO2 conditions, with attributable fraction (AF) of 2.982% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 0.943, 4.929), 3.113% (0.948, 5.200), 2.841% (0.943, 4.620), 3.617% (1.539, 5.470), and 2.048% (0.279, 3.637), respectively. High-temperature effects were statistically insignificant at corresponding low-level air pollution conditions. High-level PM2.5, PM10, and O3 may induce stroke morbidity at high-temperature conditions, with AF of 3.664% (0.036, 7.196), 4.129% (0.076, 7.963), and 4.574% (1.009, 7.762), respectively. High-level PM2.5, PM10, and O3 were not associated with stroke morbidity at low-temperature conditions. The effects of high temperature and high pollution on stroke morbidity were statistically significant among immigrants and patients with hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes but insignificant among natives and patients without complications. The associations of summer temperature and air pollution with first-ever stroke morbidity may be enhanced bidirectionally. Publicity on the health risks of combined high temperature and high pollution events should be strengthened to raise protection awareness of relevant vulnerable populations.

Heat-Related Mortality in the Extreme Summer of 2022—an Analysis Based on Daily Data

BACKGROUND

Estimating the excess mortality attributable to heat is a central element of the documentation of the consequences of climate change for human health. Until now, estimates of heatrelated deaths in Germany by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have been based on weekly mortality records.

METHODS

Our study is the first to use higher resolution data-i.e. daily all-cause mortality linked to daily mean temperatures-from each of the German federal states to assess the heat-related mortality from 2000 to 2023 in Germany, employing quasi-Poisson models and multivariate meta-regression analyses. We focus our analysis on the extreme summer of 2022.

RESULTS

Our analysis yielded an estimate of 9100 (95% CI: [7300; 10 700]) heat-related deaths in Germany for the summer of 2022, whereas previous studies of the RKI estimated the number of heatrelated deaths at 4500 [2100; 7000]. When we set a higher temperature threshold in the definition of the heat risk, we arrived at a figure of 6900 [5500; 8100] heat-related deaths in 2022. In other summers that-similarly to 2022-were characterized by large fluctuations in daily mean temperatures, we also robustly estimated higher numbers of heat-related deaths than the RKI did. The exclusion of reported deaths due to COVID-19 had only a minor effect on our estimates.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that previous studies based on weekly mortality data have underestimated the full extent of heat-related mortality in Germany, particularly in the extreme summer of 2022. The monitoring of heat-related mortality should be systematic and as comprehensive as possible if it is to enable the development of effective heat-health action plans.

The effect modification of PM2.5 and ozone on the short-term associations between temperature and mortality across the urban areas of Japan

BACKGROUND

The acute effects of temperature and air pollution on mortality are well-known environmental factors that have been receiving more recognition lately. However, the health effects resulting from the interaction of air pollution and temperature remain uncertain, particularly in cities with low levels of pollution. This study aims to examine the modification effects of particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on the association between temperature and mortality.

METHODS

We collected the daily number of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality from 20 major cities in Japan from 2012-2018. We obtained meteorological data from the Japan Meteorological Agency and air pollution data from the National Institute for Environmental Studies. We conducted analyses using a quasi-Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear model for temperature in each city and subsequently performed a random-effects meta-analysis to derive average estimates.

RESULTS

We found that high levels of O3 might positively modify the mortality risk of heat exposure, especially for cardiovascular diseases. Subgroups such as the elderly and females were susceptible. We did not observe consistent evidence of effect modification by PM2.5, including effect modification on cold by both pollutants.

CONCLUSION

PM2.5 and O3 may positively modify the short-term association between heat and mortality in the urban areas of Japan. These results highlight the need for public health policies and interventions to address the collective impacts of both temperature and air pollution.

Breathing in the future: prenatal exposure to air pollution and infants' health outcomes in the USA

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the impact of air pollution on birth outcomes in the USA over several decades.

STUDY DESIGN

Approximately 70 million birth records were assessed for the years 1980-2020. This study focussed on seven measures of birth outcomes, including birth weight, low birth weight, very low birth weight, full-term birth weight, foetal growth, gestational age and very premature birth.

METHODS

An instrumental variable identification strategy was used that exploited within county-month and within month-year of birth variations in exposure to precipitation-induced changes in air pollution.

RESULTS

Air pollution was found to have negative and large effects on a wide range of birth outcomes. The study findings suggest that a one-standard-deviation increase in ozone was associated with a 6.4% and 12.8% increase (from the mean) in the proportion of low birth weight and very preterm birth infants, respectively. Further analyses suggest that these effects were heterogeneous across trimesters of pregnancy and reveal larger impacts during the second and third trimesters.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the ordinary least square estimates of previous studies considerably underestimate the true effects of pollution on birth outcomes. Policies that aim to improve the health capital of future generations should allocate more resources and initiatives to improving environmental air quality.

Assessing heat effects on respiratory mortality and location characteristics as modifiers of heat effects at a small area scale in Central-Northern Europe

Background

Heat effects on respiratory mortality are known, mostly from time-series studies of city-wide data. A limited number of studies have been conducted at the national level or covering non-urban areas. Effect modification by area-level factors has not been extensively investigated. Our study assessed the heat effects on respiratory mortality at a small administrative area level in Norway, Germany, and England and Wales, in the warm period (May-September) within 1996-2018. Also, we examined possible effect modification by several area-level characteristics in the framework of the EU-Horizon2020 EXHAUSTION project.

Methods

Daily respiratory mortality counts and modeled air temperature data were collected for Norway, Germany, and England and Wales at a small administrative area level. The temperature-mortality association was assessed by small area-specific Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion, using distributed lag non-linear models. Estimates were pooled at the national level and overall using a random-effect meta-analysis. Age- and sex-specific models were also applied. A multilevel random-effects model was applied to investigate the modification of the heat effects by area-level factors.

Results

A rise in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile was associated with a 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19%, 34%) increase in respiratory mortality, with higher effects for females. Increased population density and PM2.5 concentrations were associated with stronger heat effects on mortality.

Conclusions

Our study strengthens the evidence of adverse heat effects on respiratory mortality in Northern Europe by identifying vulnerable subgroups and subregions. This may contribute to the development of targeted policies for adaptation to climate change.

Association of the components of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and chronic kidney disease prevalence in China

Previous research has implicated PM_2.5 as a potential environmental risk factor for CKD, but little is known about the associations between its components and CKD. We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional study using the updated air pollution data in the nationwide population (N = 2,938,653). Using generalized additive models, we assessed the association between long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and its components (i.e., black carbon [BC], organic matter [OM], nitrate [NO₃^-], ammonium [NH₄⁺], sulfate [SO₄^2-]), and CKD prevalence. The air pollution data was estimated using high-resolution and high-quality spatiotemporal datasets of ground-level air pollutants in China. Besides, we adopted a novel quantile-based g-computation approach to assess the effect of a mixture of PM_2.5 constituents on CKD prevalence. The average concentration of PM_2.5 was 78.67 ± 22.5 μg/m³, which far exceeded WHO AQG. In the fully adjusted generalized additive model, at a 10 km × 10 km spatial resolution, the ORs per IQR increase in previous 1-year average PM_2.5 exposures was 1.380 (95%CI: 1.345-1.415), for NH₄⁺ was 1.094 (95%CI: 1.062-1.126), for BC was 1.604 (95%CI: 1.563-1.646), for NO₃^- was 1.094 (95%CI: 1.060-1.130), for SO₄^2- was 1.239 (95%CI: 1.208-1.272), and for the OM was 1.387 (95%CI: 1.354-1.421), respectively. Subgroup analysis showed females, younger, and healthier were more vulnerable to this effect. In the further exploration of the joint effect of PM_2.5 compositions (OR 1.234 [95%CI 1.222-1.246]) per quartile increase in all 5 PM_2.5 components, we found that PM_2.5SO₄^2- contributed the most. These findings provide important evidence for the positive relationship between long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and its chemical constituents and CKD prevalence in a Chinese health check-up population, and identified PM_2.5SO₄^2- has the highest contribution to this relationship. This study provides clinical and public health guidance for reducing specific air particle exposure for those at risk of CKD.

Peculiar weather patterns effects on air pollution and COVID-19 spread in Tokyo metropolis

As a pandemic hotspot in Japan, between March 1, 2020-October 1, 2022, Tokyo metropolis experienced seven COVID-19 waves. Motivated by the high rate of COVID-19 incidence and mortality during the seventh wave, and environmental/health challenges we conducted a time-series analysis to investigate the long-term interaction of air quality and climate variability with viral pandemic in Tokyo. Through daily time series geospatial and observational air pollution/climate data, and COVID-19 incidence and death cases, this study compared the environmental conditions during COVID-19 multiwaves. In spite of five State of Emergency (SOEs) restrictions associated with COVID-19 pandemic, during (2020-2022) period air quality recorded low improvements relative to (2015-2019) average annual values, namely: Aerosol Optical Depth increased by 9.13% in 2020 year, and declined by 6.64% in 2021, and 12.03% in 2022; particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 decreased during 2020, 2021, and 2022 years by 10.22%, 62.26%, 0.39%, and respectively by 4.42%, 3.95%, 5.76%. For (2021-2022) period the average ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was (0.319 ± 0.1640), showing a higher contribution to aerosol loading of traffic-related coarse particles in comparison with fine particles. The highest rates of the daily recorded COVID-19 incidence and death cases in Tokyo during the seventh COVID-19 wave (1 July 2022-1 October 2022) may be attributed to accumulation near the ground of high levels of air pollutants and viral pathogens due to: 1) peculiar persistent atmospheric anticyclonic circulation with strong positive anomalies of geopotential height at 500 hPa; 2) lower levels of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) heights; 3) high daily maximum air temperature and land surface temperature due to the prolonged heat waves (HWs) in summer 2022; 4) no imposed restrictions. Such findings can guide public decision-makers to design proper strategies to curb pandemics under persistent stable anticyclonic weather conditions and summer HWs in large metropolitan areas.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries.

METHODS

Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model.

RESULTS

Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively.

DISCUSSION

We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

The role of extreme heat exposure on premature rupture of membranes in Southern California: A study from a large pregnancy cohort

BACKGROUND

Significant mortality and morbidity in pregnant women and their offspring are linked to premature rupture of membranes (PROM). Epidemiological evidence for heat-related PROM risk is extremely limited. We investigated associations between acute heatwave exposure and spontaneous PROM.

METHODS

We conducted this retrospective cohort study among mothers in Kaiser Permanente Southern California who experienced membrane ruptures during the warm season (May-September) from 2008 to 2018. Twelve definitions of heatwaves with different cut-off percentiles (75th, 90th, 95th, and 98th) and durations (≥ 2, 3, and 4 consecutive days) were developed using the daily maximum heat index, which incorporates both daily maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity in the last gestational week. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted separately for spontaneous PROM, term PROM (TPROM), and preterm PROM (PPROM) with zip codes as the random effect and gestational week as the temporal unit. Effect modification by air pollution (i.e., PM2.5 and NO2), climate adaptation measures (i.e., green space and air conditioning [AC] penetration), sociodemographic factors, and smoking behavior was examined.

RESULTS

In total, we included 190,767 subjects with 16,490 (8.6%) spontaneous PROMs. We identified a 9-14% increase in PROM risks associated with less intense heatwaves. Similar patterns as PROM were found for TPROM and PPROM. The heat-related PROM risks were greater among mothers exposed to a higher level of PM2.5 during pregnancy, under 25 years old, with lower education and household income level, and who smoked. Even though climate adaptation factors were not statistically significant effect modifiers, mothers living with lower green space or lower AC penetration were at consistently higher heat-related PROM risks compared to their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

Using a rich and high-quality clinical database, we detected harmful heat exposure for spontaneous PROM in preterm and term deliveries. Some subgroups with specific characteristics were more susceptible to heat-related PROM risk.

Effects of Heatwaves on Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases, in Southern Vietnam, 2010-2018: Time Series Analysis

This study investigated the associations between heatwaves and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in two provinces in Viet Nam known to be vulnerable to droughts during 2010-2018. This study applied a time series analysis with data extracted from the electronic database of provincial hospitals and meteorological stations from the corresponding province. To eliminate over-dispersion, this time series analysis used Quasi-Poisson regression. The models were controlled for the day of the week, holiday, time trend, and relative humidity. Heatwaves were defined as the maximum temperature exceeding P90th over the period from 2010 to 2018 during at least three consecutive days. Data from 31,191 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases and 29,056 hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases were investigated in the two provinces. Associations between hospital admissions for respiratory diseases and heatwaves in Ninh Thuan were observed at lag 2, with excess risk (ER = 8.31%, 95% confidence interval: 0.64-16.55%). However, heatwaves were negatively associated with cardiovascular diseases in Ca Mau, which was determined amongst the elderly (age above 60), ER = -7.28%, 95%CI: -13.97--0.08%. Heatwaves can be a risk factor for hospital admission due to respiratory diseases in Vietnam. Further studies need to be conducted to assert the link between heat waves and cardiovascular diseases.

High-resolution spatiotemporal modeling of daily near-surface air temperature in Germany over the period 2000-2020

The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (T_air), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of T_air data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (T_min), mean (T_mean), maximum (T_max) T_air and diurnal T_air range during 2000-2020. We used weather station T_air observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate T_air from cells with both T_air and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict T_air for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated T_air values to obtain T_air countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R² ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R² ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the T_mean model (0.71 ≤ R² ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual T_mean averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader T_air variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide T_air at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.

Modification effects of ambient temperature on associations of ambient ozone exposure before and during pregnancy with adverse birth outcomes: A multicity study in China

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest that both ambient ozone (O₃) and temperature were associated with increased risks of adverse birth outcomes. However, very few studies explored their interaction effects, especially for small for gestational age (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA).

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the modification effects of ambient temperature on associations of ambient O₃ exposure before and during pregnancy with preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), SGA and LGA based on multicity birth cohorts.

METHODS

A total of 56,905 singleton pregnant women from three birth cohorts conducted in Tianjin, Beijing and Maoming, China, were included in the study. Maximum daily 8-h average O₃ concentrations of each pregnant woman from the preconception period to delivery for every day were estimated by matching their home addresses with the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) datasets. We first applied the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to evaluate the city-specific effects of O₃ exposure before and during pregnancy on adverse birth outcomes at different temperature levels with adjustment for potential confounders, and then a meta-analysis across three birth cohorts was conducted to calculate the pooled associations.

RESULTS

In pooled analysis, significant modification effects of ambient temperature on associations of ambient O₃ with PTB, LBW and LGA were observed (P_interaction < 0.05). For a 10 μg/m³ increase in ambient O₃ exposure at high temperature level (> 75^th percentile), the risk of LBW increased by 28 % (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.13-1.46) during the second trimester and the risk of LGA increased by 116% (HR: 2.16, 95%CI: 1.16-4.00) during the entire pregnancy, while the null or weaker association was observed at corresponding low (≤ 25^th percentile) and medium (> 25^th and ≤ 75^th percentile) temperature levels.

CONCLUSION

This multicity study added new evidence that ambient high temperature may enhance the potential effects of ambient O₃ on adverse birth outcomes.

Effects of ambient temperature on mortality among elderly residents of Chengdu city in Southwest China, 2016-2020: a distributed-lag non-linear time series analysis

BACKGROUND

With complex changes in the global climate, it is critical to understand how ambient temperature affects health, especially in China. We aimed to assess the effects of temperature on daily mortality, including total non-accidental, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality between 2016 and 2020 in Chengdu, China.

METHODS

We obtained daily temperature and mortality data for the period 2016-2020. A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed-lag nonlinear model was used to examine the association between temperature and daily mortality. We investigated the effects of individual characteristics by sex, age, education level, and marital status.

RESULTS

We found significant non-linear effects of temperature on total non-accidental, CVD, respiratory, cerebrovascular, and IHD mortality. Heat effects were immediate and lasted for 0-3 days, whereas cold effects persisted for 7-10 days. The relative risks associated with extreme high temperatures (99th percentile of temperature, 28 °C) over lags of 0-3 days were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17, 1.28) for total non-accidental mortality, 1.40 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.50) for CVD morality, 1.34 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.46) for respiratory morality, 1.33 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.47) for cerebrovascular mortality, and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.58) for IHD mortality. The relative risks associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 3.0 °C) over lags of 0-14 days were 1.32 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.46) for total mortality, 1.45 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.68) for CVD morality, 1.28 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.50) for respiratory morality, 1.36 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.70) for cerebrovascular mortality, and 1.26 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.68) for IHD morality. We found that hot and cold affects were greater in those over 85 years of age, and that women, individuals with low education levels, and those who were widowed, divorced, or never married, were more vulnerable.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that exposure to hot and cold temperatures in Chengdu was associated with increased mortality, with people over 85 years old, women, those with low education levels, and unmarried individuals being more affected by hot and cold temperatures.

The modification of air particulate matter on the relationship between temperature and childhood asthma hospitalization: An exploration based on different interaction strategies

The influence of temperature on childhood asthma was self-evident, yet the issue of whether the relationship will be synergized by air pollution remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate whether the relationship between short-term temperature exposure and childhood asthma hospitalization was modified by particulate matter (PM). Data on childhood asthma hospitalization, meteorological factors, and air pollutants during 2013-2016 in Hefei, China, were collected. First, a basic Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to assess the temperature-childhood asthma hospitalization relationship. Then, two interactive strategies were applied to explore the modification effect of PM on the temperature-childhood asthma hospitalization association. We found a greater effect of cold (5th percentile of temperature) on asthma during days with higher PM_2.5 (RR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.38, 3.38) or PM₁₀ (RR: 1.87, 95% CI:1.20, 2.91) than that during days with lower PM_2.5 (RR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.54) or PM₁₀ (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 0.98, 2.36). In addition, we observed a greater modification effect of PM_2.5 on the cold-asthma association than did PM₁₀, with a per 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ associated with increases of 0.065 and 0.025 for the RR corresponding to the 5th temperature percentile, respectively. For the temperature-related AF, moderate cold showed the largest change magnitude with the PM levels rising compared with other temperature ranges. For the subgroup, Females and those aged 6-18 years were more sensitive to the modification effect of PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ on the cold-asthma association. Our findings demonstrated that particulate matter could modify the associations between temperature and childhood asthma hospitalization.

Does air pollution modify temperature-related mortality? A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is an increasing interest in understanding whether air pollutants modify the quantitative relationships between temperature and health outcomes. The results of available studies were, however, inconsistent. This study aims to sum up the current evidence and provide a comprehensive understanding of this topic.

METHODS

We conducted an electronic search in PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. The modified Navigation Guide was applied to evaluate the quality and strength of evidence. We calculated pooled temperature-related mortality at low and high pollutant levels respectively, using the random-effects model.

RESULTS

We identified 22 eligible studies, eleven of which were included in the meta-analysis. Significant effect modification was observed on heat effects for all-cause and non-accidental mortality by particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM₁₀) and ozone (O₃) (p < 0.05). The excess risks (ERs) for all-cause and non-accidental mortality were 5.4% (4.4%, 6.4%) and 6.3% (4.8%, 7.8%) at the low PM₁₀ level, 8.8% (7.5%, 10.1%) and 11.4% (8.7%, 14.2%) at the high PM₁₀ level, respectively. As for O₃, the ERs for all-cause and non-accidental mortality were 5.1% (3.9%, 6.3%) and 3.6% (0.1%, 7.2%) at the low O₃ level, 7.6% (6.3%, 9.0%) and 12.5% (4.7%, 20.9%) at the high O₃ level, respectively. Surprisingly, the heat effects on cardiovascular mortality were found to be lower at high carbon monoxide (CO) levels [ERs = 5.4% (3.9%, 6.9%)] than that at low levels [ERs = 9.4% (7.0%, 11.9%)]. The heterogeneity varied, but the results of sensitivity analyses were generally robust. Significant effect modification by air pollutants was not observed for heatwave or cold effects.

CONCLUSIONS

PM₁₀ and O₃ modify the heat-related all-cause and non-accidental mortality, indicating that policymakers should consider air pollutants when establishing heat-health warning systems. Future studies with comparable designs and settings are needed.

Short-Term Effects of Apparent Temperature on Cause-Specific Mortality in the Urban Area of Thessaloniki, Greece

Although there is a growing interest in the association between ambient temperatures and mortality, little evidence is available for Thessaloniki, the second largest city of Greece. In this study, we present an assessment of the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2006 to 2016 in the urban area of Thessaloniki, by describing the exposure-lag-response association between temperature and cause-specific mortality with the use of a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). A J-shaped relationship was found between temperature and mortality. The highest values of risk were evident for respiratory (RR > 10) and cardiovascular causes (RR > 3), probably due to the fact that health status of individuals with chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases rapidly deteriorates during hot periods. Cold effects had longer lags of up to 15 days, whereas heat effects were short-lived, up to 4 days. Percentage change in all- and cause-specific mortality per 1 °C change above and below Minimum Mortality Temperature showed a larger increase for all-cause mortality in heat (1.95%, 95% CI: 1.07–2.84), in contrast to a smaller increase in cold (0.54%, 95% CI: 0, 1.09). Overall, 3.51% of all-cause deaths were attributable to temperature, whereas deaths attributed to heat (2.34%) were more than deaths attributed to cold (1.34%). The findings of this study present important evidence for planning public-health interventions, to reduce the health impact of extreme temperatures.

Combined effects of air pollution and extreme heat events among ESKD patients within the Northeastern United States

BACKGROUND

Increasing number of studies have linked air pollution exposure with renal function decline and disease. However, there is a lack of data on its impact among end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients and its potential modifying effect from extreme heat events (EHE).

METHODS

Fresenius Kidney Care records from 28 selected northeastern US counties were used to pool daily all-cause mortality (ACM) and all-cause hospital admissions (ACHA) counts. County-level daily ambient PM_2.5 and ozone (O₃) were estimated using a high-resolution spatiotemporal coupled climate-air quality model and matched to ESKD patients based on ZIP codes of treatment sites. We used time-stratified case-crossover analyses to characterize acute exposures using individual and cumulative lag exposures for up to 3 days (Lag 0-3) by using a distributed lag nonlinear model framework. We used a nested model comparison hypothesis test to evaluate for interaction effects between air pollutants and EHE and stratification analyses to estimate effect measures modified by EHE days.

RESULTS

From 2001 to 2016, the sample population consisted of 43,338 ESKD patients. We recorded 5217 deaths and 78,433 hospital admissions. A 10-unit increase in PM_2.5 concentration was associated with a 5% increase in ACM (rate ratio [RR_Lag0-3]: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.10) and same-day O₃ (RR_Lag0: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03) after adjusting for extreme heat exposures. Mortality models suggest evidence of interaction and effect measure modification, though not always simultaneously. ACM risk increased up to 8% when daily ozone concentrations exceeded National Ambient Air Quality Standards established by the United States, but the increases in risk were considerably higher during EHE days across lag periods.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest interdependent effects of EHE and air pollution among ESKD patients for all-cause mortality risks. National level assessments are needed to consider the ESKD population as a sensitive population and inform treatment protocols during extreme heat and degraded pollution episodes.

Ambient temperature and infarct size, microvascular obstruction, left ventricular function and clinical outcomes after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVES

Incidence and prognosis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) vary according to ambient temperature and season. We sought to assess whether season and temperature on the day of STEMI are associated with infarct size, microvascular obstruction (MVO), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and clinical outcomes after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

Individual patient data from 1598 patients undergoing primary PCI in six randomized clinical trials were pooled. Infarct size was evaluated by cardiac magnetic resonance within 30 days in all trials. Patients were categorized either by whether they presented on a day of temperature extremes (minimum temperature <0 °C or maximum temperature >25 °C) or according to season.

RESULTS

A total of 558/1598 (34.9%) patients presented with STEMI on a day of temperature extremes, and 395 (24.7%), 374 (23.4%), 481 (30.1%) and 348 (21.8%) presented in the spring, summer, fall and winter. After multivariable adjustment, temperature extremes were independently associated with larger infarct size (adjusted difference 2.8%; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3; P < 0.001) and smaller LVEF (adjusted difference -2.3%; 95% CI, -3.5 to -1.1; P = 0.0002) but not with MVO (adjusted P = 0.12). In contrast, infarct size, MVO and LVEF were unrelated to season (adjusted P = 0.67; P = 0.36 and P = 0.95, respectively). Neither temperature extremes nor season were independently associated with 1-year risk of death or heart failure hospitalization (adjusted P = 0.79 and P = 0.90, respectively).

CONCLUSION

STEMI presentation during temperature extremes was independently associated with larger infarct size and lower LVEF but not with MVO after primary PCI, whereas season was unrelated to infarct severity.

Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of daily hospital admissions for anxiety in China: A multicity study

The potential impact of short-term exposure to ambient air pollution on risk of anxiety remains uncertain. We performed a detailed evaluation based on data from national insurance databases in China. Daily hospital admissions for anxiety disorders were identified in 2013-2017 from the national insurance databases covering up to 261 million urban residents in 56 cities in China. A two-stage time-series study was conducted to evaluate the associations between short-term exposure to major ambient air pollutants, including fine particles, inhalable particles, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone, and carbon monoxide, and risk of daily hospital admissions for anxiety. Significant associations between short-term exposures to ambient NO₂ and SO₂ and risk of daily hospital admissions for anxiety were found in the overall analysis. Per 10 μg/m³ increases in NO₂ at lag0 and SO₂ at lag6 were associated with significant increases of 1.37% (95% CI: 0.14%, 2.62%) and 1.53% (95% CI: 0.59%, 2.48%) in anxiety admissions, respectively. Stronger associations were found in the southern region and patients <65 years for SO₂. Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with increased risk of anxiety admissions, which may provide important implications for promotion of mental health in the public.

Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria

When meteorological conditions deviate from the optimal range for human well-being, the risks of illness, injury, and death increase, and such impacts are feared in particular with more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change. Thermal indices, such as the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), can better assess human weather-related stresses by integrating multiple weather components. This paper quantifies and compares the seasonal and spatial association of UTCI with mortality, morbidity, and road accidents in the federal state of Bavaria, Germany. Linear regression was applied to seasonally associate daily 56 million hospital admissions and 2.5 million death counts (1995-2015) as well as approximately 930,000 road accidents and 1.7 million people injured (2002-2015) with spatially interpolated same day- and lagged- (up to 14 days) average UTCI values. Additional linear regressions were performed stratifying by age, gender, region, and district. UTCI effects were clear in all three health outcomes studied: Increased UTCI resulted in immediate (1-2 days) rises in morbidity and even more strongly in mortality in summer, and lagged (up to 14 days) decreases in fall, winter, and spring. The strongest UTCI effects were found for road accidents where increasing UTCI led to immediate decreases in daily road accidents in winter but pronounced increases in all other seasons. Differences in UTCI effects were observed e.g. between in warmer north-western regions (Franconia, more districts with heat stress-related mortality, but hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons decreasing with summer heat stress), the touristic alpine regions in the south (immediate effect of increasing UTCI on road accidents in summer), and the colder south-eastern regions (increasing hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons in winter with UTCI). Districts with high percentages of elderly suffered from higher morbidity and mortality, particularly in winter. The influences of UTCI as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of this influence call for improved infrastructure planning and resource allocation in the health sector.

Associations between Weather, Air Quality and Moderate Extreme Cancer-Related Mortality Events in Augsburg, Southern Germany

While many authors have described the adverse health effects of poor air quality and meteorological extremes, there remain inconsistencies on a regional scale as well as uncertainty about the single and joint effects of atmospheric predictors. In this context, we investigated the short-term impacts of weather and air quality on moderate extreme cancer-related mortality events for the urban area of Augsburg, Southern Germany, during the period 2000–2017. First, single effects were uncovered by applying a case-crossover routine. The overall impact was assessed by performing a Mann–Whitney U testing scheme. We then compared the results of this procedure to extreme noncancer-related mortality events. In a second step, we found periods with contemporaneous significant predictors and carried out an in-depth analysis of these joint-effect periods. We were interested in the atmospheric processes leading to the emergence of significant conditions. Hence, we applied the Principal Component Analysis to large-scale synoptic conditions during these periods. The results demonstrate a strong linkage between high-mortality events in cancer patients and significantly above-average levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM_2.5) during the late winter through spring period. These were mainly linked to northerly to easterly weak airflow under stable, high-pressure conditions. Especially in winter and spring, this can result in low temperatures and a ground-level increase and the accumulation of air pollution from heating and traffic as well as eastern lateral advection of polluted air. Additionally, above-average temperatures were shown to occur on the days before mortality events from mid-summer through fall, which was also caused by high-pressure conditions with weak wind flow and intense solar radiation. Our approach can be used to analyse medical data with epidemiological as well as climatological methods while providing a more vivid representation of the underlying atmospheric processes.

Urbanization, ambient air pollution, and prevalence of chronic kidney disease: A nationwide cross-sectional study

An increasing number of studies have linked ambient air pollution to chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence. However, its potential effect modification by urbanization has not been investigated. Based on data of 47,204 adults from the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKSCKD) dataset, night light satellite remote sensing data and high-resolution air pollution inversion products, the present cross-sectional study investigated the association between fine particulate matter <2.5 mm in diameter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), night light index (NLI) and CKD prevalence in China, and the effect modification by urbanization characterized by administrative classification and NLI on the pollutant-health associations. Our results showed that a 10-μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 at 3-year moving average, a 10-μg/m³ increase in NO₂ at 5-year moving average, and a 10-U increase in NLI at 5-year moving average were significantly associated with increased odds of CKD prevalence [OR = 1.24 (95 %CI:1.14, 1.35); OR = 1.12 (95 %CI:1.09, 1.15); OR = 1.05 (95 %CI:1.02, 1.07)]. Meanwhile, the pollutant-health associations were more apparent in medium-urbanized areas compared to low- and high-urbanized areas. For instance, a 10-μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration at 2-year moving average was associated with increased odds of CKD in the areas with NLI level in the second [OR = 2.78 (95 %CI:1.77, 4.36)] and third quartiles [OR = 1.49 (95 %CI:1.14, 1.95)], compared to the lowest [OR = 0.96 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.26)] and highest [OR = 0.63 (95% CI: 0.39-1.02)] quartiles. PM_2.5 and NO₂ were associated with increased odds of CKD prevalence, especially in areas with medium NLI levels, suggesting the necessity of strengthening environmental management in medium-urbanized regions.

The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia

This study aims to examine the relationship between daily temperature and mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-2015. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the association between the mean temperature and mortality categories (natural n=69,542, cardiovascular n= 15,581, and respiratory disease n=10,119). Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM₁₀) and surface ozone (O₃) was adjusted as a potential confounding factor. The relative risk (RR) of natural mortality associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 25.2 °C) over lags 0-28 days was 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.60), compared with the minimum mortality temperature (28.2 °C). The relative risk associated with extremely hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature, 30.2 °C) over lags 0-3 days was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17). Heat effects were immediate whereas cold effects were delayed and lasted longer. People with respiratory diseases, the elderly, and women were the most vulnerable groups when it came to the effects of extremely high temperatures. Extreme temperatures did not dramatically change the temperature-mortality risk estimates made before and after adjustments for air pollutant (PM₁₀ and O₃) levels.

The role of extreme temperature in cause-specific acute cardiovascular mortality in Switzerland: A case-crossover study

Since the 2003 heatwave in Europe, evidence has been rapidly increasing on the association between extreme temperature and all-cause mortality. Little is known, however, about cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, effect modification by air pollution and aircraft noise, and which population groups are the most vulnerable to extreme temperature. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study in Zurich, Switzerland, including all adult cardiovascular deaths between 2000 and 2015 with precise individual exposure estimates at home location. We estimated the risk of 24,884 cardiovascular deaths associated with heat and cold using distributed non-linear lag models. We investigated potential effect modification of temperature-related mortality by fine particles, nitrogen dioxide, and night-time aircraft noise and performed stratified analyses across individual and social characteristics. We found increased risk of mortality for heat (odds ratio OR = 1.28 [95% confidence interval: 1.11-1.49] for 99th percentile of daily Tmean (24 °C) versus optimum temperature at 20 °C) and cold (OR = 1.15 [0.95-1.39], 5th percentile of daily Tmean (-3 °C) versus optimum temperature at 20 °C). Heat-related mortality was particularly strong for myocardial infarctions and hypertension related deaths, and among older women (>75 years). Analysis of effect modification also indicated that older women with lower socio-economic position and education are at higher risk for heat-related mortality. PM_2.5 increased the risk of heat-related mortality for heart failure, but not all-cause cardiovascular mortality. This study provides useful information for preventing cause-specific cardiovascular temperature-related mortality in moderate climate zones comparable to Switzerland.

Temperature-mortality relationship in North Carolina, USA: Regional and urban-rural differences

BACKGROUND

Health disparities exist between urban and rural populations, yet research on rural-urban disparities in temperature-mortality relationships is limited. As inequality in the United States increases, understanding urban-rural and regional differences in the temperature-mortality association is crucial.

OBJECTIVE

We examined regional and urban-rural differences of the temperature-mortality association in North Carolina (NC), USA, and investigated potential effect modifiers.

METHODS

We applied time-series models allowing nonlinear temperature-mortality associations for 17 years (2000-2016) to generate heat and cold county-specific estimates. We used second-stage analysis to quantify the overall effects. We also explored potential effect modifiers (e.g. social associations, greenness) using stratified analysis. The analysis considered relative effects (comparing risks at 99th to 90th temperature percentiles based on county-specific temperature distributions for heat, and 1st to 10th percentiles for cold) and absolute effects (comparing risks at specific temperatures).

RESULTS

We found null effects for heat-related mortality (relative effect: 1.001 (95% CI: 0.995-1.007)). Overall cold-mortality risk for relative effects was 1.019 (1.015-1.023). All three regions had statistically significant cold-related mortality risks for relative and absolute effects (relative effect: 1.019 (1.010-1.027) for Coastal Plains, 1.021 (1.015-1.027) for Piedmont, 1.014 (1.006-1.023) for Mountains). The heat mortality risk was not statistically significant, whereas the cold mortality risk was statistically significant, showing higher cold-mortality risks in urban areas than rural areas (relative effect for heat: 1.006 (0.997-1.016) for urban, 1.002 (0.988-1.017) for rural areas; relative effect for cold: 1.023 (1.017-1.030) for urban, 1.012 (1.001-1.023) for rural areas). Findings are suggestive of higher relative cold risks in counties with the less social association, higher population density, less green-space, higher PM_2.5, lower education level, higher residential segregation, higher income inequality, and higher income (e.g., Ratio of Relative Risks 1.72 (0.68, 4.35) comparing low to high education).

CONCLUSION

Results indicate cold-mortality risks in NC, with potential differences by regional, urban-rural areas, and community characteristics.

Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy

The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way.

The Impact of the Synergistic Effect of Temperature and Air Pollutants on Chronic Lung Diseases in Subtropical Taiwan

Previous studies have suggested an association between air pollution and lung disease. However, few studies have explored the relationship between chronic lung diseases classified by lung function and environmental parameters. This study aimed to comprehensively investigate the relationship between chronic lung diseases, air pollution, meteorological factors, and anthropometric indices. We conducted a cross-sectional study using the Taiwan Biobank and the Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring Database. A total of 2889 participants were included. We found a V/U-shaped relationship between temperature and air pollutants, with significant effects at both high and low temperatures. In addition, at lower temperatures (<24.6 °C), air pollutants including carbon monoxide (CO) (adjusted OR (aOR):1.78/Log 1 ppb, 95% CI 0.98–3.25; aOR:5.35/Log 1 ppb, 95% CI 2.88–9.94), nitrogen monoxide (NO) (aOR:1.05/ppm, 95% CI 1.01–1.09; aOR:1.11/ppm, 95% CI 1.07–1.15), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) (aOR:1.02/ppm, 95% CI 1.00–1.05; aOR:1.06/ppm, 95% CI 1.04–1.08), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) (aOR:1.29/ppm, 95% CI 1.01–1.65; aOR:1.77/ppm, 95% CI 1.36–2.30) were associated with restrictive and mixed lung diseases, respectively. Exposure to CO, NO, NO₂, NO_x and SO₂ significantly affected obstructive and mixed lung disease in southern Taiwan. In conclusion, temperature and air pollution should be considered together when evaluating the impact on chronic lung diseases.

Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review

Association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory health is well documented. At the same time, it is widely known that extreme weather events intrinsically exacerbate air pollution impact. Particularly, hot weather and extreme temperatures during heat waves (HW) significantly affect human health, increasing risks of respiratory mortality and morbidity. Concurrently, a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures can be combined with weather–air pollution interaction during wildfires. The purpose of the current review is to summarize literature on interplay of hot weather, air pollution, and respiratory health consequences worldwide, with the ultimate goal of identifying the most dangerous pollution agents and vulnerable population groups. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, and Scopus, focusing only on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 2000 to 2021. The main findings demonstrate that the increased level of PM10 and O3 results in significantly higher rates of respiratory and cardiopulmonary mortality. Increments in PM2.5 and PM10, O3, CO, and NO2 concentrations during high temperature episodes are dramatically associated with higher admissions to hospital in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, daily hospital emergency transports for asthma, acute and chronic bronchitis, and premature mortality caused by respiratory disease. Excessive respiratory health risk is more pronounced in elderly cohorts and small children. Both heat waves and outdoor air pollution are synergistically linked and are expected to be more serious in the future due to greater climate instability, being a crucial threat to global public health that requires the responsible involvement of researchers at all levels. Sustainable urban planning and smart city design could significantly reduce both urban heat islands effect and air pollution.

Short-term effects of ambient temperature and pollutants on the mortality of respiratory diseases: A time-series analysis in Hefei, China

BACKGROUND

The air pollution has become an important environmental health problem due to its adverse health effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of ambient temperature and pollutants on mortality of respiratory diseases (RD) in Hefei, China, a typical inland city.

METHODS

Nonlinear exposure-response dependencies and delayed effects of urban daily mean temperature (DMT) and pollutants were evaluated by distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). To further explore this effect, different genders and ages were also examined by stratified analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 12876 deaths from RD were collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2018 in Hefei, China. There was a U-shaped correlation between DMT and RD mortality, and the RD mortality rised by 11.6% (95% CI: 2.2-22.0%) when the DMT was 35.8 °C (reference temperature is 20 °C). The results show that risk of death with short-term exposure to elevated concentrations of PM₁₀ and SO₂ was not significant. The maximum hysteresis and cumulative relative risk (RR) of RD mortality were 1.012 (95% CI: 1.003 ~ 1.021, lag 0 day) and 1.072 (95% CI: 1.014 ~1.133, lag 10 days) for each 10 μg/m³ augment in NO₂; 1.005 (95% CI: 1.001-1.009, lag 0 day) and 1.027 (95% CI: 1.004-1.051, lag 10 days) for each 10 μg/m³ augment in O_3; a negative association between CO exposure and the cumulative risk of death was observed (RR = 0.964, 95% CI: 0.935-0.993, lag 07 days). Subgroup analysis showed the effect of high temperatures, NO_2, O₃ and CO exposure was still statistically significant for the elderly and male.

CONCLUSION

The present study found that short-term exposure to high temperature, NO_2, O₃ and CO were significantly associated with the risk of RD mortality and male as well as elderly are more susceptible to these factors.

Association between ambient temperature and childhood respiratory hospital visits in Beijing, China: a time-series study (2013-2017)

Little is known on the potential impact of temperature on respiratory morbidity, especially for children whose respiratory system can be more vulnerable to climate changes. In this time-series study, Poisson generalized additive models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the associations between ambient temperature and childhood respiratory morbidity. The impacts of extreme cold and hot temperatures were calculated as cumulative relative risks (cum.RRs) at the 1st and 99th temperature percentiles relative to the minimum morbidity temperature percentile. Attributable fractions of respiratory morbidity due to cold or heat were calculated for temperatures below or above the minimum morbidity temperature. Effect modifications by air pollution, age, and sex were assessed in stratified analyses. A total of 877,793 respiratory hospital visits of children under 14 years old between 2013 and 2017 were collected from Beijing Children's Hospital. Overall, we observed J-shaped associations with greater respiratory morbidity risks for exposure to lower temperatures, and higher fraction of all-cause respiratory hospital visits was caused by cold (33.1%) than by heat (0.9%). Relative to the minimum morbidity temperature (25 °C, except for rhinitis, which is 31 °C), the cum.RRs for extreme cold temperature (-6 °C) were 2.64 (95%CI: 1.51-4.61) for all-cause respiratory hospital visits, 2.73 (95%CI: 1.44-5.18) for upper respiratory infection, 2.76 (95%CI: 1.56-4.89) for bronchitis, 2.12 (95%CI: 1.30-3.47) for pneumonia, 2.06 (95%CI: 1.27-3.34) for rhinitis, and 4.02 (95%CI: 2.14-7.55) for asthma, whereas the associations between extreme hot temperature (29 °C) and respiratory hospital visits were not significant. The impacts of extreme cold temperature on asthma hospital visits were greater at higher levels of ozone (O₃) exposure (> 50th percentile). Our findings suggest significantly increased childhood respiratory morbidity risks at extreme cold temperature, and the impact of extreme cold temperature on asthma hospital visits can be enhanced under higher level exposure to O₃.

Effect of temperature and its interactions with relative humidity and rainfall on malaria in a temperate city Suzhou, China

Malaria is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Many ecological studies have investigated the independent impacts of ambient temperature on malaria. However, the optimal temperature measures of malaria and its interaction with other meteorological factors on malaria transmission are less understood. This study aims to investigate the effect of ambient temperature and its interactions with relative humidity and rainfall on malaria in Suzhou, a temperate climate city in Anhui Province, China. Weekly malaria and meteorological data from 2005 to 2012 were obtained for Suzhou. A distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the effect of different temperature measures on malaria. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum quasi-Akaike information criterion. GeoDetector and Poisson regression models were employed to quantify the interactions of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on malaria transmission. A total of 13,382 malaria cases were notified in Suzhou from 2005 to 2012. Each 5 °C rise in average temperature over 10 °C resulted in a 22% (95% CI: 17%, 28%) increase in malaria cases at lag of 4 weeks. In terms of cumulative effects from lag 1 to 8 weeks, each 5 °C increase over 10 °C caused a 175% growth in malaria cases (95% CI: 139%, 216%). Average temperature achieved the best performance in terms of model fitting, followed by minimum temperature, most frequent temperature, and maximum temperature. Temperature had an interactive effect on malaria with relative humidity and rainfall. High temperature together with high relative humidity and high rainfall could accelerate the transmission of malaria. Meteorological factors may affect malaria transmission interactively. The research findings could be helpful in the development of weather-based malaria early warning system, especially in the context of climate change for the prevention of possible malaria resurgence.

Effects of weather, air pollution and Oktoberfest on ambulance-transported emergency department admissions in Munich, Germany

BACKGROUND

Climate change and increasing risks of extreme weather events affect human health and lead to changes in the emergency department (ED) admissions and the emergency medical services (EMS) operations. For a better allocation of resources in the healthcare system, it is essential to predict ED numbers based on environmental variables. This publication aims to quantify weather, air pollution and calendar-related effects on daily ED admissions.

METHODS

Analyses were based on 575,725 admissions from the web-based IVENA system recording all patients in the greater Munich area with pre-hospital emergency care in ambulance operations during 2014-2018. Linear models were used to identify statistically significant associations between daily ED admissions and calendar, meteorological and pollution factors, allowing for lag effects of one to three days. Separate analyses were performed for seasons, with additional subset analyses by sex, age and surgical versus internal department.

RESULTS

ED admissions were exceptionally high during the three-week Oktoberfest, particularly for males and on the weekends, as well as during the New Year holiday. Admissions significantly increased during the years of study, decreased in spring and summer holidays, and were lower on Sundays while higher on Mondays. In the warmer seasons, admissions were significantly associated with higher temperature, adjusting for the effects of sunshine and humidity in all age groups except for the elderly. Adverse weather conditions in non-summer seasons were either linked to increasing ED admissions (from storms, gust) or decreasing them from rain. Mostly, but not exclusively, in winter, increasing ED admissions were associated with colder minimum temperatures as well as with higher NO and PM₁₀ concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to standard calendar-related factors, incorporating seasonal weather, air pollutant and interactions with patient demographics into resource planning models can improve the daily allocation of resources and staff of EMS operations at hospital and city levels.

The impact of main air pollutants on respiratory emergency department visits and the modification effects of temperature in Beijing, China

Research indicates that air pollution is a risk factor of an increased occurrence of diseases. However, evidence is limited on the effects of the pollution index on disease and whether temperature modifies the effects. The objectives were (i) to explore the effects of the Air Pollution Index (API) and specific indices for pollutants (PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂) on respiratory emergency department (ED) visits in Beijing and (ii) to investigate whether temperature modified the effects of main air pollutants on respiratory ED visits. A quasi-Poisson generalized additive model was employed to examine the association of API and indices for pollutants with respiratory disease. Bivariate response surface model and stratification model (cold days, moderately cold days, moderately hot days, and hot days) were used to analyze the modification effects of temperature on air pollution and respiratory disease. The results showed that (i) the effects of API on respiratory diseases were similar to the index for PM₁₀ in Beijing. (ii) API and PM₁₀ were associated with increased respiratory ED visits on cold days and moderately cold days. Furthermore, the effects of PM₁₀ on respiratory disease on moderately cold days [Relative risk (RR) = 1.006 per 10 μg/m³, 95% CI 1.002-1.009] were stronger than on cold days (RR = 1.004 per 10 μg/m³, 95% CI 1.000-1.008). (iii) PM₁₀ (API) had a greater impact on children aged 10 to 17 years and females on moderately cold days, while the elderly had an increased risk of respiratory disease to PM₁₀ (RR = 1.008 per 10 μg/m³, 95% CI 1.002-1.013) and API (RR = 1.013 per 10, 95% CI 1.004-1.022) on cold days. In conclusion, temperature can modify the association between API and respiratory morbidity. A stronger correlation existed between PM₁₀ and respiratory diseases on moderately cold days, while the effects of cold days were less than that attributable to moderately cold days.

Extreme temperatures and cardiovascular mortality: assessing effect modification by subgroups in Ganzhou, China

Background

Many people die from cardiovascular diseases each year, and extreme temperatures are regarded as a risk factor for cardiovascular deaths. However, the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular deaths varies in different regions because of population density, demographic inequality, and economic situation, and the evidence in Ganzhou, China is limited and inconclusive.

Objective

This study aimed to assess extreme temperature-related cardiovascular mortality and identify the potential vulnerable people.

Methods

After controlling other meteorological measures, air pollution, seasonality, relative humidity, day of the week, and public holidays, we examined temperature-related cardiovascular mortality along 21 lag days by Poisson in Ganzhou, China.

Results

A J-shaped relationship was observed between mean temperature and cardiovascular mortality. Extremely low temperatures substantially increased the relative risks (RR) of cardiovascular mortality. The effect of cold temperature was delayed by 2–6 days and persisted for 4–10 days. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality related to extremely high temperatures was not significant (p > 0.05). Subgroup analysis indicated that extremely low temperatures had a stronger association with cardiovascular mortality in people with cerebrovascular diseases (RR: 1.282, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020–1.611), males (RR: 1.492, 95% CI: 1.175–1.896), married people (RR: 1.590, 95% CI: 1.224–2.064), and people above the age of 65 years (RR: 1.641, 95% CI: 1.106–2.434) than in people with ischemic heart disease, females, unmarried people, and the elderly (≥65 years old), respectively.

Conclusions

The type of cardiovascular disease, sex, age, and marital status modified the effects of extremely low temperatures on the risk of cardiovascular mortality. These findings may help local governments to establish warning systems and precautionary measures to reduce temperature-related cardiovascular mortality.

Synergistic health effects of air pollution, temperature, and pollen exposure: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

BACKGROUND

Exposure to heat, air pollution, and pollen are associated with health outcomes, including cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Studies assessing the health impacts of climate change have considered increased exposure to these risk factors separately, though they may be increasing simultaneously for some populations and may act synergistically on health. Our objective is to systematically review epidemiological evidence for interactive effects of multiple exposures to heat, air pollution, and pollen on human health.

METHODS

We systematically searched electronic literature databases (last search, April 29, 2019) for studies reporting quantitative measurements of associations between at least two of the exposures and mortality from any cause and cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality specifically. Following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology, we evaluated the risk of bias of individual studies and the overall quality and strength of evidence.

RESULTS

We found 56 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six measured air pollution, heat, and pollen; 39 measured air pollution and heat; 10 measured air pollution and pollen; and one measured heat and pollen. Nearly all studies were at risk of bias from exposure assessment error. However, consistent exposure-response across studies led us to conclude that there is overall moderate quality and sufficient evidence for synergistic effects of heat and air pollution. We concluded that there is overall low quality and limited evidence for synergistic effects from simultaneous exposure to (1) air pollution, pollen, and heat; and (2) air pollution and pollen. With only one study, we were unable to assess the evidence for synergistic effects of heat and pollen.

CONCLUSIONS

If synergistic effects between heat and air pollution are confirmed with additional research, the health impacts from climate change-driven increases in air pollution and heat exposure may be larger than previously estimated in studies that consider these risk factors individually.

The effect of air-pollution and weather exposure on mortality and hospital admission and implications for further research: A systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND

Air-pollution and weather exposure beyond certain thresholds have serious effects on public health. Yet, there is lack of information on wider aspects including the role of some effect modifiers and the interaction between air-pollution and weather. This article aims at a comprehensive review and narrative summary of literature on the association of air-pollution and weather with mortality and hospital admissions; and to highlight literature gaps that require further research.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping literature review. The search on two databases (PubMed and Web-of-Science) from 2012 to 2020 using three conceptual categories of "environmental factors", "health outcomes", and "Geographical region" revealed a total of 951 records. The narrative synthesis included all original studies with time-series, cohort, or case cross-over design; with ambient air-pollution and/or weather exposure; and mortality and/or hospital admission outcomes.

RESULTS

The final review included 112 articles from which 70 involved mortality, 30 hospital admission, and 12 studies included both outcomes. Air-pollution was shown to act consistently as risk factor for all-causes, cardiovascular, respiratory, cerebrovascular and cancer mortality and hospital admissions. Hot and cold temperature was a risk factor for wide range of cardiovascular, respiratory, and psychiatric illness; yet, in few studies, the increase in temperature reduced the risk of hospital admissions for pulmonary embolism, angina pectoris, chest, and ischemic heart diseases. The role of effect modification in the included studies was investigated in terms of gender, age, and season but not in terms of ethnicity.

CONCLUSION

Air-pollution and weather exposure beyond certain thresholds affect human health negatively. Effect modification of important socio-demographics such as ethnicity and the interaction between air-pollution and weather is often missed in the literature. Our findings highlight the need of further research in the area of health behaviour and mortality in relation to air-pollution and weather, to guide effective environmental health precautionary measures planning.

Cumulative effect of indoor temperature on cardiovascular disease-related emergency department visits among older adults in Taiwan

Studies have demonstrated that exposure to extreme outdoor temperatures increases cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity. However, people spend 80%-90% of their time indoors, and the cumulative effects of exposure to high or low temperature on the risk of cardiovascular diseases had not been considered. This study investigated the cumulative effects of high or low indoor temperature exposure on the risk of cardiovascular diseases. We estimated indoor temperatures by using a prediction model of indoor temperature from a previous study and further calculated the cumulative degree hours at different indoor temperature ranges. Samples of emergency department visits due to cardiovascular diseases were collected from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID) from 2000 to 2014 in Taiwan. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model to analyze the data. Our data demonstrated a significant risk of emergency department visits due to cardiovascular diseases at 27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 °C when cooling cumulative degree hours exceeded 62, 43, 16, 1, and 1 during the hot season (May to October), respectively, and at 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 °C when heating cumulative degree hours exceeded 1, 1, 1, 11, and 33 during the cold season (November to April), respectively. Cumulative degree hours were different according to gender and age groups. Policymakers should further consider the cumulative effects to prevent hot- or cold-related cardiovascular diseases for populations.

The Interactive Effects between Particulate Matter and Heat Waves on Circulatory Mortality in Fuzhou, China

The interactive effects between particulate matter (PM) and heat waves on circulatory mortality are under-researched in the context of global climate change. We aimed to investigate the interaction between heat waves and PM on circulatory mortality in Fuzhou, a city characterized by a humid subtropical climate and low level of air pollution in China. We collected data on deaths, pollutants, and meteorology in Fuzhou between January 2016 and December 2019. Generalized additive models were used to examine the effect of PM on circulatory mortality during the heat waves, and to explore the interaction between different PM levels and heat waves on the circulatory mortality. During heat waves, circulatory mortality was estimated to increase by 8.21% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.32–16.72) and 3.84% (95% CI: 0.28–7.54) per 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, respectively, compared to non-heat waves. Compared with low-level PM_2.5 concentration on non-heat waves layer, the high level of PM_2.5 concentration on heat waves layer has a significant effect on the cardiovascular mortality, and the effect value was 48.35% (95% CI: 6.37–106.89). Overall, we found some evidence to suggest that heat waves can significantly enhance the impact of PM on circulatory mortality.

Comparison of Respiratory and Ischemic Heart Mortalities and their Relationship to the Thermal Environment

Chronic respiratory and ischemic heart diseases are globally important parts of total mortality. This study focuses on the occurrence of mortality due to these disease groups in Germany and possible effects of the thermal environment. A retrospective analysis on the mortality rates of chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRD) and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) at the regional level in Germany for the period 2001–2015 was done in combination with meteorological observations from the network of the German Meteorological Service. In order to control the mortality data for long-term and seasonal trends, a 365-day Gaussian low-pass filter with a filter response function was applied. The thermal environment was analysed using 2 m air temperature (Ta) and the human biometeorological index Perceived Temperature (PT). The relationship of the Relative Risk (RR) of mortality to the thermal environment is displayed as an exposure–response curve, with threshold values at which RR increases significantly towards higher and lower temperature values. CLRD mortality increases above 17.6 °C, at approximately 4.4%/°C (CI: ± 0.3). The increase of IHD mortality above the threshold of 18.8 °C is less steep, at 3.5%/°C (CI: ± 0.2). During hot periods, CLRD mortality increases by 19.9%, which is twice as much as IHD mortality, with an increase of 9.8%. However, cold days and cold periods affect IHD slightly more than CLRD. The results highlight the concerns of CLRD patients during hot days as well as heat waves. This could lead to better precautions being taken for respiratory patients, which are already established for cardiac patients in Germany.

Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman

BACKGROUND

Estimating the effects of climate change on human health can help health policy makers plan for the future. In Iran, there are few studies, about investigating the effects of climate change on mortality. This study aimed to project the effect of low (cold) and high (heat) temperature on mortality in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.

METHODS

Mortality attributed to temperature was projected by estimating the temperature-mortality relation for the observed data, projection of future temperatures by the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and quantifying the attributable fraction by applying the observed temperature-mortality relation on the projected temperature. Climate change projection was done by three climate scenarios base on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Adaptation was considered by using different minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) and risk reduction approaches. The current decade (2010-19) was considered as the reference period.

RESULTS

All three climate change scenarios, showed that the mean of temperature will rise about 1 °C, by 2050 in Kerman. The number of deaths attributed to heat were obviously higher than cold in all periods. Assuming no adaptation, over 3700 deaths attributed to temperature will happen in each decade (2020s, 2030s and 2040s) in the future, in which over 3000 deaths will be due to heat and over 450 due to cold. In the predictions, as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) went up, the contribution of heat to mortality slightly decreased, and cold temperature played a more important role. By considering the risk reduction due to adaptation, the contribution of heat in mortality slightly and insignificantly decreased.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that although low temperatures will contribute to temperature-related mortality in the future, but heat will be a stronger risk factor for mortality, especially if adaptation is low.

[Satellite data for recording health-relevant environmental conditions: examples and interdisciplinary potential]

Environmental conditions influence human health and interact with other factors such as DNA, lifestyle, or the social environment. Earth observations from space provide data on the most diverse manifestations of these environmental conditions and make it possible to quantify them spatially. Using two examples - the availability of open and recreational space and the spatial distribution of air pollution - this article presents the potential of Earth observations for health studies. In addition, possible applications for health-related issues are discussed. To this end, we try to outline key points for an interdisciplinary approach that meets the conceptual, data technology, and ethical challenges.

Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming

BACKGROUND

Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.

METHODS

We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.

RESULTS

In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 °C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 °C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 °C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 °C, compared to today's warming level of 1 °C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 °C versus 1 °C of GMT rise.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.

The simultaneous effects of thermal stress and air pollution on body temperature of Tehran traffic officers

PURPOSE

Global warming and air pollution are among the most important problems all over the world. Considering the key role of traffic officers who saliently deal with traffic management and are in full, constant and direct exposure to thermal stress and air pollution index, this study aims to investigate the simultaneous effects of these factors on the body temperature of traffic officers in the main squares of Tehran.

METHODS

This study was conducted among 119 traffic officers who were working in 29 squares of Tehran, located near the active pollutant's stations during 2017. Samples were selected by the census method. Environmental parameters such as air temperature (dry and wet), radiation temperature, the level of air pollution in the main squares and characteristics of officers such as body temperature and the Wet-Bulb-Globe-Temperature (WBGT) index were evaluated. Data were analyzed through independent samples t-test and factorial ANOVA with a p value of p ≤ 0.05 in SPSS software.

RESULTS

There was no significant relationship between air pollution and ear temperature, but there was a statistically significant difference between the wet-bulb temperature and the ear temperature (t = 26.4, P < 0.001). The interaction effect of air pollution and wet-bulb temperature on the ear temperature was also significant (F = 3.98, P = 0.048).

CONCLUSION

Exposure to heat and air pollution affects body temperature, with its greatest impact on the temperature of the ear. More studies are recommended to be conducted in these field and other factors such as demographic and environmental factors at different times of the year should be investigated. Accordingly, some interventions should be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of officers based on the findings of the research.

Meteorological rhythms of respiratory and circulatory diseases revealed by Harmonic Analysis

The intricately fluctuating onset of respiratory and circulatory diseases displays rhythms of multi-scaled meteorological conditions due to their sensitivity to weather changes. The intrinsic meteorological rhythms of these diseases are revealed in this bio-meteorological study via Fourier decomposition and harmonic analysis. Daily emergency room (ER) visit data for respiratory and circulatory diseases from three comprehensive hospitals in Haidian district of Beijing, China were used in the analysis. Meteorological data included three temperature metrics, relative humidity, sunshine duration, daily mean air pressure, and wind speed. The Fourier decomposition and harmonic analysis on ER visits and meteorological variables involve frequency, period, and power of all harmonics. The results indicated that: i) for respiratory morbidity, a strong climatic annual rhythm responding to annual temperature change was firstly revealed; its ratio of spectral density was 16-33%. Moreover, significant correlations existed between the high-frequency fluctuations (<30 d) of morbidity and short-term harmonics of humidity and solar duration. High-frequency harmonics of temperature and pressure showed no statistically significant effect. ii) With regard to all types of circulatory morbidity, their annual periodicity was weaker than that of respiratory diseases, whose harmonic energy took a ratio less than 8%. Besides, the power of all high-frequency harmonics of circulatory morbidity accounted for up to 70-90% in the original sequences, and their relationship to many short-term meteorological factors were significant, including the mean and maximum temperatures, wind speed, and solar duration. iii) The weekly rhythm appeared in respiratory ER visits with 15% of harmonic variance but not prominent in circulatory morbidity. In summary, by decomposing the sequence of respiratory and circulatory diseases as well as recognizing their meteorological rhythms, different responses to meteorological conditions on various time scales were identified.

Indoor environmental quality and learning outcomes: protocol on large-scale sensor deployment in schools

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to poor environmental conditions has been associated with deterioration of physical and mental health, and with reduction of cognitive performance. Environmental conditions may also influence cognitive development of children, but epidemiological evidence is scant. In developed countries, children spend 930 hours per year in a classroom, second only to time spent in their bedroom. Using continuous sensing technology, we investigate the relationship between indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and cognitive performance of school-aged children. The proposed study will result in a better understanding of the effects of environmental characteristics on cognitive performance, thereby paving the way for experimental studies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A study protocol is presented to reliably measure IEQ in schools. We will monitor the IEQ of 280 classrooms for 5 years, covering approximately 10 000 children. Each classroom in the sample is permanently equipped with a sensor measuring air quality (carbon dioxide and coarse particles), temperature, relative humidity, light intensity and noise levels, all at 1 min intervals. The location of sensing equipment within and across rooms has been validated by a pilot study. Academic performance of school-aged children is measured through standardised cognitive tests. In addition, a series of health indicators is collected (eg, school absence and demand for healthcare), together with an extensive set of sociodemographic characteristics (eg, parental income, education, occupational status).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Medical Ethical Approval for the current study was waived by the Medical Ethical Committee azM/UM (METC 2018-0681). In addition, data on student performance and health stems from an already existing data infrastructure that are granted with ethical approval by the Ethical Review Committee Inner City faculties (ERCIC_092_12_07_2018). Health data are obtained from the 'The Healthy Primary School of the Future' (HPSF) project. Medical Ethical Approval for HPSF was waived by the Medical Ethical Committee of Zuyderland, Heerlen (METC 14 N-142). The HPSF study protocol was registered in the database ClinicalTrials.gov on 14-06-2016 with reference number NCT02800616, this study is currently in the Results stage. Data collection from Gemeentelijke Gezondheidsdienst Zuid-Limburg (GGD-ZL) is executed by researchers of HPSF, this procedure has been fully approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of Zuyderland. The questionnaires on level of comfort will be filled in anonymously by students and teachers. The study will follow the EU General Data Protection Regulation (EU GDPR) and Dutch data protection law to ensure protection of personal data, as well as maintain proper data management and anonymisation.The protocol discussed in this paper includes significant efforts focused on integrating results and making them available to both the scientific community and the wider public, including policy makers. The results will lead to multiple scientific articles that will be disseminated through peer-reviewed international journals, as well as through conference presentations. In addition, we will exploit ongoing collaboration with project stakeholders and project partners to disseminate information to the target audience. For example, the results will be presented to school boards in the Netherlands, through engagement with the Coalition for Green Schools, as well as to school boards in USA, through engagement with the Center for Green Schools.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02800616; Results.