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Cedano Giraldo D, Mumcu Kucuker D. Ecological niche modeling of Lactarius deliciosus using kuenm R package: Insights into habitat preferences. Fungal Biol 2024; 128:2022-2031. [PMID: 39174237 DOI: 10.1016/j.funbio.2024.07.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Revised: 07/15/2024] [Accepted: 07/22/2024] [Indexed: 08/24/2024]
Abstract
Understanding species habitat preferences is essential for conservation and management efforts, as it enables the identification of areas with a higher likelihood of species presence. Lactarius deliciosus (L.) Gray, an economically important edible mushroom, is influenced by various environmental variables, yet information regarding its ecological niche remains elusive. Therefore, in this study, we aim to address this gap by modeling the fundamental niche of L. deliciosus. Specifically, we explore its distribution patterns in response to large-scale environmental factors, including long-term temperature averages and topography. We employed 242 presence-only georeferenced points in Europe obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Utilizing the Kuenm R package, we constructed 210 models incorporating five sets of environmental variables, 14 regularization multiplier values, and three feature class combinations. Evaluation metrics included statistical significance, predictive power, and model complexity. The final model was transferred to Turkiye, with careful consideration of extrapolation risk using MESS (multivariate similarity surface) and MoD (most dissimilar variable) metrics. In alignment with all three evaluation criteria, the algorithm implemented in Kuenm identified the best model as the linear-quadratic combination with a regularization multiplier of 0.2, based on variables selected by the contribution importance method. Results underscore temperature-related variables as critical determinants of L. deliciosus habitat preferences within the calibration area, with solar radiation also playing a significant role in the final model. These results underscored the effectiveness of ecological niche modeling (ENM) in understanding how climatic patterns may alter the distribution of species like L. deliciosus. The findings contribute to the development of informed conservation strategies and decision-making in dynamic environments. Emphasizing a comprehensive approach to ecological modeling is crucial for promoting sustainable forest management.
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2
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Holt G, Macqueen A, Lester RE. A flexible consistent framework for modelling multiple interacting environmental responses to management in space and time. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 367:122054. [PMID: 39106797 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 07/29/2024] [Indexed: 08/09/2024]
Abstract
Management of resources is often a large-scale task addressed using many small-scale interventions. The range of scales at which organisms respond to those interventions, along with the many outcomes which management aims to achieve can make determining the success of management complex. Environmental flow is an example of management where there is a recognized need for managers to demonstrate the impact of their actions by integrating different types of environmental responses. Here, we aim to support decision making in environmental management via the development of a new modelling framework (eFlowEval). It has the capacity to capture best-available knowledge, to scale it in space and time, explore interactions among species, compare scenarios, and account for uncertainty. Thus, it provides a basis for including multiple target groups in a common system. The framework is readily updatable as new information becomes available and can identify where data are insufficient to be scientifically robust. We demonstrate the eFlowEval framework using three very different environmental responses: 1) metabolism, which is a measure of the energy produced and then used in an ecosystem, 2) favorability for a bird species of interest (royal spoonbill Platalea regia), and 3) competing wetland plants (Centipeda cunninghamii and lippia Phyla canescens). These demonstrations illustrate the capability of the eFlowEval framework but the specific outputs shown here should not be used to assess environmental responses to management. Using these demonstrations, we illustrate the capacity of the eFlowEval framework to provide assessments across a range of scales (local to landscape) and from short time frames (weeks to months) to multi-year assessments. Further, we illustrate the ability to: i) scale responses from local to basin scales, ii) vary driver-response model types, iii) represent uncertainty, iv) compare scenarios, v) accommodate variable parameter values at different locations, and vi) incorporate spatial and temporal dependencies and dependencies among species. We also illustrate the framework's ability to capture inter- and intraspecific interactions and their impact in space and time. The eFlowEval framework extends the capacity of the component response models to provide novel modeling capabilities for management at scale. It allows for interactions among species or processes to be incorporated, as well as in space and time. A large degree of flexibility is offered by the framework, in terms of driver-response model types, input data, and aggregation methods. Thus, the eFlowEval framework provides a mechanism to enhance the transparency of environmental watering decision making, capture institutional knowledge, enhance adaptive management and undertake evaluation of the impact of environmental watering at a range of spatial and temporal scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Galen Holt
- Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University, Locked Bag 20000, Geelong, Victoria, 3220, Australia.
| | - Ashley Macqueen
- Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University, Locked Bag 20000, Geelong, Victoria, 3220, Australia
| | - Rebecca E Lester
- Centre for Regional and Rural Futures, Deakin University, Locked Bag 20000, Geelong, Victoria, 3220, Australia
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3
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Feng X, Peterson AT, Aguirre-López LJ, Burger JR, Chen X, Papeş M. Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2024; 99:1481-1503. [PMID: 38597328 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2023] [Revised: 03/08/2024] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Feng
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA
| | | | | | - Joseph R Burger
- Department of Biology, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 40502, USA
| | - Xin Chen
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, 21532, USA
| | - Monica Papeş
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA
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4
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Briscoe Runquist R, Moeller DA. Isolation by environment and its consequences for range shifts with global change: Landscape genomics of the invasive plant common tansy. Mol Ecol 2024; 33:e17462. [PMID: 38993027 DOI: 10.1111/mec.17462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2024] [Revised: 04/29/2024] [Accepted: 05/30/2024] [Indexed: 07/13/2024]
Abstract
Invasive species are a growing global economic and ecological problem. However, it is not well understood how environmental factors mediate invasive range expansion. In this study, we investigated the recent and rapid range expansion of common tansy across environmental gradients in Minnesota, USA. We densely sampled individuals across the expanding range and performed reduced representation sequencing to generate a dataset of 3071 polymorphic loci for 176 individuals. We used non-spatial and spatially explicit analyses to determine the relative influences of geographic distance and environmental variation on patterns of genomic variation. We found no evidence for isolation by distance but strong evidence for isolation by environment, indicating that environmental factors may have modulated patterns of range expansion. Land use classification and soils were particularly important variables related to population structure although they operated on different spatial scales; land use classification was related to broad-scale patterns and soils were related to fine-scale patterns. All analyses indicated a distinctive genetic cluster in the most recently invaded portion of the range. Individuals from the far northwestern range margin were separated from the remainder of the range by reduced migration, which was associated with environmental resistance. This portion of the range was invaded primarily in the last 15 years. Ecological niche models also indicated that this cluster was associated with the expansion of the niche. While invasion is often assumed to be primarily influenced by dispersal limitation, our results suggest that ongoing invasion and range shifts with climate change may be strongly affected by environmental heterogeneity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan Briscoe Runquist
- Department of Plant and Microbial Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - David A Moeller
- Department of Plant and Microbial Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
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5
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Suding KN, Collins CG, Hallett LM, Larios L, Brigham LM, Dudney J, Farrer EC, Larson JE, Shackelford N, Spasojevic MJ. Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention. Ecology 2024; 105:e4322. [PMID: 39014865 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 03/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/18/2024]
Abstract
Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharine N Suding
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Courtney G Collins
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Biodiversity Research Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lauren M Hallett
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Department of Biology and Environmental Studies Program, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA
| | - Loralee Larios
- Department of Botany & Plant Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California, USA
| | - Laurel M Brigham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Joan Dudney
- Environmental Studies Program, Santa Barbara, California, USA
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Emily C Farrer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
| | - Julie E Larson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- USDA Agricultural Research Service, Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center, Burns, Oregon, USA
| | - Nancy Shackelford
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Marko J Spasojevic
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California, USA
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6
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Kaarlejärvi E, Itter M, Tonteri T, Hamberg L, Salemaa M, Merilä P, Vanhatalo J, Laine AL. Inferring ecological selection from multidimensional community trait distributions along environmental gradients. Ecology 2024:e4378. [PMID: 39056347 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2024] [Revised: 04/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024]
Abstract
Understanding the drivers of community assembly is critical for predicting the future of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecological selection ubiquitously shapes communities by selecting for individuals with the most suitable trait combinations. Detecting selection types on key traits across environmental gradients and over time has the potential to reveal the underlying abiotic and biotic drivers of community dynamics. Here, we present a model-based predictive framework to quantify the multidimensional trait distributions of communities (community trait spaces), which we use to identify ecological selection types shaping communities along environmental gradients. We apply the framework to over 3600 boreal forest understory plant communities with results indicating that directional, stabilizing, and divergent selection all modify community trait distributions and that the selection type acting on individual traits may change over time. Our results provide novel and rare empirical evidence for divergent selection within a natural system. Our approach provides a framework for identifying key traits under selection and facilitates the detection of processes underlying community dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elina Kaarlejärvi
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Malcolm Itter
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Tiina Tonteri
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Leena Hamberg
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Maija Salemaa
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Päivi Merilä
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jarno Vanhatalo
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anna-Liisa Laine
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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7
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Fabri-Ruiz S, Berdalet E, Ulses C, Somot S, Vila M, Lemée R, Irisson JO. Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 947:174726. [PMID: 39002574 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2024] [Revised: 07/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/15/2024]
Abstract
Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m-3 and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m-3) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Fabri-Ruiz
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France; DECOD, L'Institut Agro, IFREMER, INRAE, 44000 Nantes, France.
| | - E Berdalet
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - C Ulses
- Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UT3, Toulouse, France
| | - S Somot
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - M Vila
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - R Lemée
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
| | - J-O Irisson
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
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Geng X, Summers J, Chen N. Ecological niche contributes to the persistence of the western × glaucous-winged gull hybrid zone. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11678. [PMID: 39005880 PMCID: PMC11239321 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2023] [Revised: 04/23/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Hybrid zones occur in nature when populations with limited reproductive barriers overlap in space. Many hybrid zones persist over time, and different models have been proposed to explain how selection can maintain hybrid zone stability. More empirical studies are needed to elucidate the role of ecological adaptation in maintaining stable hybrid zones. Here, we investigated the role of exogenous factors in maintaining a hybrid zone between western gulls (Larus occidentalis) and glaucous-winged gulls (L. glaucescens). We used ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche similarity tests to quantify and examine the ecological niches of western gulls, glaucous-winged gulls, and their hybrids. We found evidence of niche divergence between all three groups. Our results support the bounded superiority model, providing further evidence that exogenous selection favoring hybrids may be an important factor in maintaining this stable hybrid zone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuewen Geng
- Department of BiologyUniversity of RochesterRochesterNew YorkUSA
| | - Jeremy Summers
- Department of BiologyUniversity of RochesterRochesterNew YorkUSA
| | - Nancy Chen
- Department of BiologyUniversity of RochesterRochesterNew YorkUSA
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9
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Bennington S, Dillingham PW, Bourke SD, Dawson SM, Slooten E, Rayment WJ. Testing spatial transferability of species distribution models reveals differing habitat preferences for an endangered delphinid ( Cephalorhynchus hectori) in Aotearoa, New Zealand. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70074. [PMID: 39041012 PMCID: PMC11262828 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2024] [Revised: 06/28/2024] [Accepted: 07/11/2024] [Indexed: 07/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict distributions in novel times or space (termed transferability) and fill knowledge gaps for areas that are data poor. In conservation, this can be used to determine the extent of spatial protection required. To understand how well a model transfers spatially, it needs to be independently tested, using data from novel habitats. Here, we test the transferability of SDMs for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori), a culturally important (taonga) and endangered, coastal delphinid, endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand. We collected summer distribution data from three populations from 2021 to 2023. Using Generalised Additive Models, we built presence/absence SDMs for each population and validated the predictive ability of the top models (with TSS and AUC). Then, we tested the transferability of each top model by predicting the distribution of the remaining two populations. SDMs for two populations showed useful performance within their respective areas (Banks Peninsula and Otago), but when used to predict the two areas outside the models' source data, performance declined markedly. SDMs from the third area (Timaru) performed poorly, both for prediction within the source area and when transferred spatially. When data for model building were combined from two areas, results were mixed. Model interpolation was better when presence/absence data from Otago, an area of low density, were combined with data from areas of higher density, but was otherwise poor. The overall poor transferability of SDMs suggests that habitat preferences of Hector's dolphins vary between areas. For these dolphins, population-specific distribution data should be used for conservation planning. More generally, we demonstrate that a one model fits all approach is not always suitable. When SDMs are used to predict distribution in data-poor areas an assessment of performance in the new habitat is required, and results should be interpreted with caution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steph Bennington
- Department of Marine ScienceUniversity of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand
| | - Peter W. Dillingham
- Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand
- Coastal People Southern Skies Centre of Research ExcellenceUniversity of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand
| | | | | | | | - William J. Rayment
- Department of Marine ScienceUniversity of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand
- Coastal People Southern Skies Centre of Research ExcellenceUniversity of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand
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10
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Blais BR, Koprowski JL. Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0302981. [PMID: 38709740 PMCID: PMC11073737 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian R. Blais
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
| | - John L. Koprowski
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
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11
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Ninsin KD, Souza PGC, Amaro GC, Aidoo OF, Barry EJDV, da Silva RS, Osei-Owusu J, Dofuor AK, Ablormeti FK, Heve WK, Edusei G, Agboyi LK, Beseh P, Boafo HA, Borgemeister C, Sétamou M. Risk of spread of the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) in Ghana. BULLETIN OF ENTOMOLOGICAL RESEARCH 2024:1-20. [PMID: 38699867 DOI: 10.1017/s0007485324000105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2024]
Abstract
The impact of invasive species on biodiversity, food security and economy is increasingly noticeable in various regions of the globe as a consequence of climate change. Yet, there is limited research on how climate change affects the distribution of the invasive Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera:Liviidae) in Ghana. Using maxnet package to fit the Maxent model in R software, we answered the following questions; (i) what are the main drivers for D. citri distribution, (ii) what are the D. citri-specific habitat requirements and (iii) how well do the risk maps fit with what we know to be correctly based on the available evidence?. We found that temperature seasonality (Bio04), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer land cover and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), were the most important drivers of D. citri distribution. The results follow the known distribution records of the pest with potential expansion of habitat suitability in the future. Because many invasive species, including D. citri, can adapt to the changing climates, our findings can serve as a guide for surveillance, tracking and prevention of D. citri spread in Ghana.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kodwo Dadzie Ninsin
- Department of Biological Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza
- Department of Agronomy, Instituto Federal de Ciência e Tecnologia do Triângulo Mineiro (IFTM Campus Uberlândia), Uberlândia, MG 38400-970, Brazil
| | | | - Owusu Fordjour Aidoo
- Department of Biological Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
- Department of Entomology, College of Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA
| | | | - Ricardo Siqueira da Silva
- Department of Agronomy, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Diamantina, MG 39100-000, Brazil
| | - Jonathan Osei-Owusu
- Department of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Aboagye Kwarteng Dofuor
- Department of Biological Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Fred Kormla Ablormeti
- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), P. O. Box 245, Sekondi, W/R, Ghana
| | - William K Heve
- Department of Biological Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - George Edusei
- Department of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Lakpo Koku Agboyi
- Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), CSIR Campus, No. 6 Agostino Neto Road, Airport Residential Area, P. O. Box CT 8630, Cantonments, Ghana
| | - Patrick Beseh
- Plant Protection and Regulatory Services Directorate. P. O. Box M37, Accra, Ghana
| | - Hettie Arwoh Boafo
- Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), CSIR Campus, No. 6 Agostino Neto Road, Airport Residential Area, P. O. Box CT 8630, Cantonments, Ghana
| | - Christian Borgemeister
- Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
| | - Mamoudou Sétamou
- Citrus Center, Texas A & M University-Kingsville, 312 N. International Blvd., Weslaco, TX 78599, USA
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12
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De La Fuente L, Navas-Cortés JA, Landa BB. Ten Challenges to Understanding and Managing the Insect-Transmitted, Xylem-Limited Bacterial Pathogen Xylella fastidiosa. PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2024; 114:869-884. [PMID: 38557216 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-12-23-0476-kc] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
An unprecedented plant health emergency in olives has been registered over the last decade in Italy, arguably more severe than what occurred repeatedly in grapes in the United States in the last 140 years. These emergencies are epidemics caused by a stealthy pathogen, the xylem-limited, insect-transmitted bacterium Xylella fastidiosa. Although these epidemics spurred research that answered many questions about the biology and management of this pathogen, many gaps in knowledge remain. For this review, we set out to represent both the U.S. and European perspectives on the most pressing challenges that need to be addressed. These are presented in 10 sections that we hope will stimulate discussion and interdisciplinary research. We reviewed intrinsic problems that arise from the fastidious growth of X. fastidiosa, the lack of specificity for insect transmission, and the economic and social importance of perennial mature woody plant hosts. Epidemiological models and predictions of pathogen establishment and disease expansion, vital for preparedness, are based on very limited data. Most of the current knowledge has been gathered from a few pathosystems, whereas several hundred remain to be studied, probably including those that will become the center of the next epidemic. Unfortunately, aspects of a particular pathosystem are not always transferable to others. We recommend diversification of research topics of both fundamental and applied nature addressing multiple pathosystems. Increasing preparedness through knowledge acquisition is the best strategy to anticipate and manage diseases caused by this pathogen, described as "the most dangerous plant bacterium known worldwide."
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonardo De La Fuente
- Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, U.S.A
| | - Juan A Navas-Cortés
- Department of Crop Protection. Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Córdoba, Spain
| | - Blanca B Landa
- Department of Crop Protection. Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Córdoba, Spain
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13
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Noedoost F, Behroozian M, Karami S, Joharchi MR. Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11241. [PMID: 38681180 PMCID: PMC11045919 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fariba Noedoost
- Department of Biology, Faculty of ScienceBehbahan Khatam Alanbia University of TechnologyBehbahanKhuzestanIran
| | | | - Sahar Karami
- Quantitative Plant Ecology and Biodiversity Research Lab, Department of Biology, Faculty of ScienceFerdowsi University of MashhadMashhadIran
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14
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Kraan C, Haslob H, Probst WN, Stelzenmüller V, Rehren J, Neumann H. Thresholds of seascape fauna composition along gradients of human pressures and natural conditions to inform marine spatial planning. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 914:169940. [PMID: 38199351 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Knowledge about the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic activities and environmental conditions on marine ecosystems is incomplete and details are lacking. Compositional community changes can occur along gradients, and community data can be used to assess the state of community resilience against combined impacts of variables representing human pressures and environmental conditions. Here we use a machine learning approach, i.e., Gradient Forest, to identify explanatory variable thresholds and select relevant epibenthic fauna and demersal fish species, which can be used to inform an integrated management of multiple human pressures and conservation planning in the southern North Sea. We show that a broad selection of anthropogenic and environmental variables, such as natural disturbance of the seafloor and euphotic depth, determined community composition thresholds of 67 epibenthic fauna and 39 demersal fish species along environmental conditions and human pressure gradients in the southern North Sea between 2010 and 2020. This has the potential to inform resilience assessments under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to promote and retain a good environmental status of marine ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Casper Kraan
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany.
| | - Holger Haslob
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Wolfgang N Probst
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | | | - Jennifer Rehren
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Hermann Neumann
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
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15
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Wallace ZP, Bedrosian BE, Dunk JR, LaPlante DW, Woodbridge B, Smith BW, Brown JL, Lickfett TM, Gura K, Bittner D, Crandall RH, Domenech R, Katzner TE, Kritz KJ, Lewis SB, Lockhart MJ, Miller TA, Quint K, Shreading A, Slater SJ, Stahlecker DW. Predicting the spatial distribution of wintering golden eagles to inform full annual cycle conservation in western North America. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0297345. [PMID: 38295117 PMCID: PMC10830038 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297345] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 02/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Wildlife conservation strategies focused on one season or population segment may fail to adequately protect populations, especially when a species' habitat preferences vary among seasons, age-classes, geographic regions, or other factors. Conservation of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is an example of such a complex scenario, in which the distribution, habitat use, and migratory strategies of this species of conservation concern vary by age-class, reproductive status, region, and season. Nonetheless, research aimed at mapping priority use areas to inform management of golden eagles in western North America has typically focused on territory-holding adults during the breeding period, largely to the exclusion of other seasons and life-history groups. To support population-wide conservation planning across the full annual cycle for golden eagles, we developed a distribution model for individuals in a season not typically evaluated-winter-and in an area of the interior western U.S. that is a high priority for conservation of the species. We used a large GPS-telemetry dataset and library of environmental variables to develop a machine-learning model to predict spatial variation in the relative intensity of use by golden eagles during winter in Wyoming, USA, and surrounding ecoregions. Based on a rigorous series of evaluations including cross-validation, withheld and independent data, our winter-season model accurately predicted spatial variation in intensity of use by multiple age- and life-history groups of eagles not associated with nesting territories (i.e., all age classes of long-distance migrants, and resident non-adults and adult "floaters", and movements of adult territory holders and their offspring outside their breeding territories). Important predictors in the model were wind and uplift (40.2% contribution), vegetation and landcover (27.9%), topography (14%), climate and weather (9.4%), and ecoregion (8.7%). Predicted areas of high-use winter habitat had relatively low spatial overlap with nesting habitat, suggesting a conservation strategy targeting high-use areas for one season would capture as much as half and as little as one quarter of high-use areas for the other season. The majority of predicted high-use habitat (top 10% quantile) occurred on private lands (55%); lands managed by states and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) had a lower amount (33%), but higher concentration of high-use habitat than expected for their area (1.5-1.6x). These results will enable those involved in conservation and management of golden eagles in our study region to incorporate spatial prioritization of wintering habitat into their existing regulatory processes, land-use planning tasks, and conservation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary P. Wallace
- Wyoming Natural Diversity Database, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, United States of America
| | | | - Jeffrey R. Dunk
- Department of Environmental Science and Management, California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt, Arcata, California, United States of America
| | - David W. LaPlante
- Natural Resource Geospatial, Yreka, California, United States of America
| | - Brian Woodbridge
- California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt, Arcata, California, United States of America
| | - Brian W. Smith
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Denver, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Jessi L. Brown
- Sparrowhawk Data Science, Reno, Nevada, United States of America
| | - Todd M. Lickfett
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Denver, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Katherine Gura
- Teton Raptor Center, Wilson, Wyoming, United States of America
| | - Dave Bittner
- Wildlife Research Institute, Inc., Julian, California, United States of America
| | - Ross H. Crandall
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Habitat Protection Program, Pinedale, Wyoming, United States of America
| | - Rob Domenech
- Raptor View Research Institute, Missoula, Montana, United States of America
| | - Todd E. Katzner
- U.S. Geological Survey, Boise, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Kevin J. Kritz
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Denver, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Stephen B. Lewis
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Juneau, Alaska, United States of America
| | | | - Tricia A. Miller
- Conservation Science Global, Cape May, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Katie Quint
- Wildlife Research Institute, Inc., Julian, California, United States of America
| | - Adam Shreading
- Raptor View Research Institute, Missoula, Montana, United States of America
| | - Steve J. Slater
- HawkWatch, International, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America
| | - Dale W. Stahlecker
- Eagle Environmental, Inc., Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America
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Liu Y, Li C, Shao H. Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Simulium qinghaiense (Diptera: Simuliidae) in the Huangshui River Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Using Four Ecological Niche Models and Optimized Approaches. INSECTS 2024; 15:81. [PMID: 38392501 PMCID: PMC10889266 DOI: 10.3390/insects15020081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2023] [Revised: 01/18/2024] [Accepted: 01/21/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024]
Abstract
The Huangshui River, a vital tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River within the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is home to the endemic black fly species S. qinghaiense. In this study, we conducted a systematic survey of the distribution of the species in the Huangshui River basin, revealing its predominant presence along the river's main stem. Based on four ecological niche models-MaxEnt with parameter optimization; GARP; BIOCLIM; and DOMAIN-we conduct a comparative analysis; evaluating the accuracy of AUC and Kappa values. Our findings indicate that optimizing parameters significantly improves the MaxEnt model's predictive accuracy by reducing complexity and overfitting. Furthermore, all four models exhibit higher accuracy compared to a random model, with MaxEnt demonstrating the highest AUC and Kappa values (0.9756 and 0.8118, respectively), showcasing significant superiority over the other models (p < 0.05). Evaluation of predictions from the four models elucidates that potential areas of S. qinghaiense in the Huangshui River basin are primarily concentrated in the central and southern areas, with precipitation exerting a predominant influence. Building upon these results, we utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast changes in suitable areas and distribution centers during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Mid-Holocene (MH), and future periods under three climate scenarios. The results indicate significantly smaller suitable areas during LIG and MH compared to the present, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward from the Qilian Mountains to the central part of the basin. In the future, suitable areas under different climate scenarios are expected to contract, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward. These findings provide important theoretical references for monitoring, early warning, and control measures for S. qinghaiense in the region, contributing to ecological health assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunxiang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
- Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Integrated Pest Management in Qinghai, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
| | - Chuanji Li
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
- Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Integrated Pest Management in Qinghai, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
| | - Hainan Shao
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
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17
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Essl F, García‐Rodríguez A, Lenzner B, Alexander JM, Capinha C, Gaüzère P, Guisan A, Kühn I, Lenoir J, Richardson DM, Rumpf SB, Svenning J, Thuiller W, Zurell D, Dullinger S. Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models. JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 2024; 51:89-102. [PMID: 38515765 PMCID: PMC10952696 DOI: 10.1111/jbi.14726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 03/23/2024]
Abstract
The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Franz Essl
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Adrián García‐Rodríguez
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Bernd Lenzner
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change & Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | | | - César Capinha
- Centre of Geographical StudiesInstitute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of LisbonLisboaPortugal
- Associate Laboratory TERRALisbonPortugal
| | - Pierre Gaüzère
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRSLECAGrenobleF‐38000France
| | | | - Ingolf Kühn
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZHalleGermany
- Martin Luther University Halle‐WittenbergHalleGermany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058, Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN)Université de Picardie Jules VerneAmiensFrance
| | - David M. Richardson
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Centre for Invasion BiologyStellenbosch UniversityStellenboschSouth Africa
- Department of Invasion EcologyCzech Academy of Sciences, Institute of BotanyPrůhoniceCzech Republic
| | - Sabine B. Rumpf
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of BaselBaselSwitzerland
| | - Jens‐Christian Svenning
- Department of Biology, Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE)Aarhus UniversityAarhusDenmark
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRSLECAGrenobleF‐38000France
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and BiologyUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Division of Biodiversity Dynamics and Conservation, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
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18
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Lovell RSL, Collins S, Martin SH, Pigot AL, Phillimore AB. Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:2243-2270. [PMID: 37558208 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S L Lovell
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Sinead Collins
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Simon H Martin
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
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19
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Liu J, Wei H, Zheng J, Chen R, Wang L, Jiang F, Gu W. Constructing indicator species distribution models to study the potential invasion risk of invasive plants: A case of the invasion of Parthenium hysterophorus in China. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10672. [PMID: 37920769 PMCID: PMC10618719 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Revised: 08/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 11/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim As invasive plants are often in a non-equilibrium expansion state, traditional species distribution models (SDMs) are likely underestimating their suitable habitat. New methods are necessary to identify potential invasion risk areas. Location Tropical monsoon rainforest and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest regions in China. Methods We took Parthenium hysterophorus as a case study to predict its potential invasion risk using climate, terrain, and human activity variables. First, a generalized joint attribute model (GJAM) was constructed using the occurrence of P. hysterophorus and its 27 closely related species in Taiwan, given it is widely distributed in Taiwan. Based on the output correlation values, two positively correlated species (Cardiospermum halicacabum and Portulaca oleracea) and one negatively correlated species (Crassocephalum crepidioides) were selected as indicator species. Second, the distributions of P. hysterophorus and its indicator species in the study area were predicted separately using an ensemble model (EM). Third, when selecting indicator species to construct indicator SDMs, two treatments (indicator species with positive correlation only, or both positive and negative correlation) were considered. The indicator species' EM predictions were overlaid using a weighted average method, and a better indicator SDMs prediction result was selected by comparison. Finally, the EM prediction result of P. hysterophorus was used to optimize the indicator SDMs result by a maximum overlay. Results The optimized indicator SDMs prediction showed an expanded range beyond the current geographic range compared to EM and the thresholds for predicting key environmental variables were wider. It also reinforced the human activities' influence on the potential distribution of P. hysterophorus. Main Conclusions For invasive plants with expanding ranges, information about indicator species distribution can be borrowed as a barometer for areas not currently invaded. The optimized indicator SDMs allow for more efficient potential invasion risk prediction. On this basis, invasive plants can be prevented earlier.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiamin Liu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest ChinaShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
- School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Haiyan Wei
- School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Jiaying Zheng
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest ChinaShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
- School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Ruidun Chen
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest ChinaShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
- School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Lukun Wang
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest ChinaShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
- School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Fan Jiang
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest ChinaShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
- School of Geography and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Wei Gu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest ChinaShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
- College of Life SciencesShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'anChina
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20
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Bridges AEH, Barnes DKA, Bell JB, Ross RE, Voges L, Howell KL. Filling the data gaps: Transferring models from data-rich to data-poor deep-sea areas to support spatial management. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 345:118325. [PMID: 37390730 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Revised: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/02/2023]
Abstract
Spatial management of the deep sea is challenging due to limited available data on the distribution of species and habitats to support decision making. In the well-studied North Atlantic, predictive models of species distribution and habitat suitability have been used to fill data gaps and support sustainable management. In the South Atlantic and other poorly studied regions, this is not possible due to a massive lack of data. In this study, we investigated whether models constructed in data-rich areas can be used to inform data-poor regions (with otherwise similar environmental conditions). We used a novel model transfer approach to identify to what extent a habitat suitability model for Desmophyllum pertusum reef, built in a data-rich basin (North Atlantic), could be transferred usefully to a data-poor basin (South Atlantic). The transferred model was built using the Maximum Entropy algorithm and constructed with 227 presence and 3064 pseudo-absence points, and 200 m resolution environmental grids. Performance in the transferred region was validated using an independent dataset of D. pertusum presences and absences, with assessments made using both threshold-dependent and -independent metrics. We found that a model for D. pertusum reef fitted to North Atlantic data transferred reasonably well to the South Atlantic basin, with an area under the curve of 0.70. Suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef was predicted on 20 of the assessed 27 features including seamounts. Nationally managed Marine Protected Areas provide significant protection for D. pertusum reef habitat in the region, affording full protection from bottom trawling to 14 of the 20 suitable features. In areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), we found four seamounts that provided suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef to be at least partially protected from bottom trawling, whilst two did not fall within fisheries closures. There are factors to consider when developing models for transfer including data resolution and predictor type. Nevertheless, the promising results of this application demonstrate that model transfer approaches stand to provide significant contributions to spatial planning processes through provision of new, best available data. This is particularly true for ABNJ and areas that have previously undergone little scientific exploration such as the global south.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amelia E H Bridges
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK; British Antarctic Survey, NERC, Cambridge, UK; Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, UK.
| | | | - James B Bell
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, UK
| | - Rebecca E Ross
- Benthic Communities Research Group, Institute of Marine Research (IMR), Bergen, Norway
| | - Lizette Voges
- South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation, Swakopmund, Namibia
| | - Kerry L Howell
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK
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21
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Stock A, Gregr EJ, Chan KMA. Data leakage jeopardizes ecological applications of machine learning. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1743-1745. [PMID: 37528205 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02162-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Andy Stock
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
| | - Edward J Gregr
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- SciTech Environmental Consulting, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Kai M A Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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22
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Martínez‐Ainsworth NE, Scheppler H, Moreno‐Letelier A, Bernau V, Kantar MB, Mercer KL, Jardón‐Barbolla L. Fluctuation of ecological niches and geographic range shifts along chile pepper's domestication gradient. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10731. [PMID: 38034338 PMCID: PMC10682905 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2023] [Revised: 09/30/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Domestication is an ongoing well-described process. However, while many have studied the changes domestication causes in plant genetics, few have explored its impact on the portion of the geographic landscape in which the plants exist. Therefore, the goal of this study was to understand how the process of domestication changed the geographic space suitable for chile pepper (Capsicum annuum) in its center of origin (domestication). C. annuum is a major crop species globally whose center of domestication, Mexico, has been well-studied. It provides a unique opportunity to explore the degree to which ranges of different domestication classes diverged and how these ranges might be altered by climate change. To this end, we created ecological niche models for four domestication classes (wild, semiwild, landrace, modern cultivar) based on present climate and future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Considering present environment, we found substantial overlap in the geographic niches of all the domestication classes. Yet, environmental and geographic aspects of the current ranges did vary among classes. Wild and commercial varieties could grow in desert conditions, while landraces could not. With projections into the future, habitat was lost asymmetrically, with wild, semiwild, and landraces at greater risk of territorial declines than modern cultivars. Further, we identified areas where future suitability overlap between landraces and wilds is expected to be lost. While range expansion is widely associated with domestication, we found little support of a constant niche expansion (either in environmental or geographical space) throughout the domestication gradient in chile peppers in Mexico. Instead, particular domestication transitions resulted in loss, followed by capturing or recapturing environmental or geographic space. The differences in environmental characterization among domestication gradient classes and their future potential range shifts increase the need for conservation efforts to preserve landraces and semiwild genotypes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalia E. Martínez‐Ainsworth
- Centro de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias en Ciencias y HumanidadesUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCiudad de MéxicoMexico
| | - Hannah Scheppler
- Department of Horticulture and Crop ScienceOhio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA
| | - Alejandra Moreno‐Letelier
- Jardín Botánico del Instituto de BiologíaUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad UniversitariaCiudad de MéxicoMexico
| | - Vivian Bernau
- Plant Introduction Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service (USDA‐ARS), and Department of AgronomyIowa State UniversityAmesIowaUSA
| | - Michael B. Kantar
- Department of Tropical Plant and Soil SciencesUniversity of Hawai'iHonoluluHawaiiUSA
| | - Kristin L. Mercer
- Department of Horticulture and Crop ScienceOhio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA
| | - Lev Jardón‐Barbolla
- Centro de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias en Ciencias y HumanidadesUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCiudad de MéxicoMexico
- Department of Horticulture and Crop ScienceOhio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA
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23
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Suicmez B, Avci M. Distribution patterns of Quercus ilex from the last interglacial period to the future by ecological niche modeling. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10606. [PMID: 37869430 PMCID: PMC10585444 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2023] [Revised: 08/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/27/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The plants' geographic distribution is affected by natural or human-induced climate change. Numerous studies at both the global and regional levels currently focus on the potential changes in plant distribution areas. Ecological niche modeling can help predict the likely distribution of species according to environmental variables under different climate scenarios. In this study, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), a keystone species of the Mediterranean ecosystem, for the Last Interglacial period (LIG: ~130 Ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~22 Ka), mid-Holocene (MH: ~6 Ka), and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for 2050-2070 obtained from CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM global climate scenarios respectively. The models were produced with algorithms from the R-package "biomod2" and assessed by AUC of the receiver operating characteristic plot and true skill statistics. Aside from BIOCLIM (SRE), all model algorithms performed similarly and produced projections that are supported by good evaluation scores, although random forest (RF) slightly outperformed all the others. Additionally, distribution maps generated for the past period were validated through a comparison with pollen data acquired from the Neotoma Pollen Database. The results revealed that southern areas of the Mediterranean Basin, particularly coastal regions, served as long-term refugia for Q. ilex, which was supported by fossil pollen data. Furthermore, the models suggest long-term refugia role for Anatolia and we argue that Anatolia may have served as a founding population for the species. Future climate scenarios indicated that Q. ilex distribution varied by region, with some areas experiencing range contractions and others range expands. This study provides significant insights into the vulnerability of the Q. ilex to future climate change in the Mediterranean ecosystem and highlights the crucial role of Anatolia in the species' historical distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Burak Suicmez
- Istanbul University, Institute of Social SciencesIstanbulTürkiye
| | - Meral Avci
- Department of Geography, Faculty of LettersIstanbul UniversityIstanbulTürkiye
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24
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Labrousse S, Nerini D, Fraser AD, Salas L, Sumner M, Le Manach F, Jenouvrier S, Iles D, LaRue M. Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg8340. [PMID: 37756400 PMCID: PMC10530227 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg8340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species' continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Labrousse
- Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et approches numériques (LOCEAN), UMR 7159 Sorbonne-Université, CNRS, MNHN, IRD, IPSL, 75005 Paris, France
| | - David Nerini
- Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, MIO, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France
| | - Alexander D. Fraser
- Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania
| | | | - Michael Sumner
- Integrated Digital East Antarctica, Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway, Kingston, Tasmania 7050, Australia
| | | | - Stephanie Jenouvrier
- Department of Biology, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - David Iles
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Michelle LaRue
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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25
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Gómez-Díaz JA, Baena ML, González-Zamora A, Delfín-Alfonso CA. Potential present and future distributions of the genus Atta of Mexico. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0292072. [PMID: 37751423 PMCID: PMC10522027 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 09/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Temperature and precipitation influence insect distribution locally and drive large-scale biogeographical patterns. We used current and future climate data from the CHELSA database to create ensemble species distribution models for three Atta leaf-cutting ant species (Atta cephalotes, A. mexicana, and A. texana) found in Mexico. These models were used to estimate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species in the future. Our results show that bioclimatic variables influence the distribution of each Atta species occupying a unique climatic niche: A. cephalotes is affected by temperature seasonality, A. mexicana by isothermality, and A. texana by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Atta texana and A. mexicana are expected to decline their range by 80% and 60%, respectively, due to rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased drought. Due to rising temperatures and increased humidity, Atta cephalotes is expected to expand its range by 30%. Since Atta species are important pests, our coexistence with them requires knowledge of their ecological functions and potential future distribution changes. In addition, these insects serve as bioindicators of habitat quality, and they can contribute to the local economy in rural areas since they are eaten as food for the nutritional value of the queens. In this sense, presenting a future perspective of these species' distribution is important for forest and crop management. Education programs also are necessary to raise awareness of the importance of these ants and the challenges they face because of climate change. Our results offer a perspective of climate change studies to define conservation and adaptation strategies for protecting vulnerable areas such as high-elevation remnant forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge A. Gómez-Díaz
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
- Centro de Investigaciones Tropicales, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Martha L. Baena
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Arturo González-Zamora
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Christian A. Delfín-Alfonso
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
- Laboratorio de Zoología, Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
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26
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García‐Rodríguez A, Lenzner B, Marino C, Liu C, Velasco JA, Bellard C, Jeschke JM, Seebens H, Essl F. Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:4924-4938. [PMID: 37395619 PMCID: PMC10946511 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Revised: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrián García‐Rodríguez
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change and Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Bernd Lenzner
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change and Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Clara Marino
- Université Paris‐Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique EvolutionGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Chunlong Liu
- College of FisheriesOcean University of ChinaQingdaoChina
- Institute of HydrobiologyChinese Academy of SciencesWuhanChina
| | - Julián A. Velasco
- Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio ClimáticoUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
| | - Céline Bellard
- Université Paris‐Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique EvolutionGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Jonathan M. Jeschke
- Institute of BiologyFreie Universität BerlinBerlinGermany
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB)BerlinGermany
- Berlin‐Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB)BerlinGermany
| | - Hanno Seebens
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreFrankfurtGermany
| | - Franz Essl
- Division of BioInvasions, Global Change and Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
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27
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Fronhofer EA, Corenblit D, Deshpande JN, Govaert L, Huneman P, Viard F, Jarne P, Puijalon S. Eco-evolution from deep time to contemporary dynamics: The role of timescales and rate modulators. Ecol Lett 2023; 26 Suppl 1:S91-S108. [PMID: 37840024 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Revised: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 03/29/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023]
Abstract
Eco-evolutionary dynamics, or eco-evolution for short, are often thought to involve rapid demography (ecology) and equally rapid heritable phenotypic changes (evolution) leading to novel, emergent system behaviours. We argue that this focus on contemporary dynamics is too narrow: Eco-evolution should be extended, first, beyond pure demography to include all environmental dimensions and, second, to include slow eco-evolution which unfolds over thousands or millions of years. This extension allows us to conceptualise biological systems as occupying a two-dimensional time space along axes that capture the speed of ecology and evolution. Using Hutchinson's analogy: Time is the 'theatre' in which ecology and evolution are two interacting 'players'. Eco-evolutionary systems are therefore dynamic: We identify modulators of ecological and evolutionary rates, like temperature or sensitivity to mutation, which can change the speed of ecology and evolution, and hence impact eco-evolution. Environmental change may synchronise the speed of ecology and evolution via these rate modulators, increasing the occurrence of eco-evolution and emergent system behaviours. This represents substantial challenges for prediction, especially in the context of global change. Our perspective attempts to integrate ecology and evolution across disciplines, from gene-regulatory networks to geomorphology and across timescales, from today to deep time.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Dov Corenblit
- GEOLAB, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, Clermont-Ferrand, France
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université Paul Sabatier, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | | | - Lynn Govaert
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
| | - Philippe Huneman
- Institut d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques (CNRS/Université Paris I Sorbonne), Paris, France
| | - Frédérique Viard
- ISEM, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France
| | - Philippe Jarne
- CEFE, UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - IRD - EPHE, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Sara Puijalon
- Univ Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, ENTPE, UMR 5023 LEHNA, Villeurbanne, France
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28
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Zhou Y, Tao J, Yang J, Zong S, Ge X. Niche shifts and range expansions after invasions of two major pests: the Asian longhorned beetle and the citrus longhorned beetle. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2023; 79:3149-3158. [PMID: 37013934 DOI: 10.1002/ps.7490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 02/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent years, the quarantine forestry pests the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis and the citrus longhorned beetle (CLB) Anoplophora chinensis have spread across the Northern Hemisphere, triggering concern about their potential distribution. However, little is known about the niche shifts of the pests during the invasion, making it difficult to assess their potential ranges. We thus employed two distinct approaches (i.e., ordination-based and reciprocal model-based) to compare the native and invaded niches of ALB and CLB after their spread to new continents based on global occurrence records. We further constructed models with pooled occurrences from both the native and invaded ranges to analyze the effects of occurrence partitioning on predicted ranges. RESULTS We detected expansions in the invaded niches of both pests, indicating that the niches shifted to varying extents after the invasion. Large shares of the native niches of ALB and CLB remained unfilled, revealing the potential for further invasion in new regions. The models calibrated with pooled occurrences clearly underestimated the potential ranges in invaded regions compared with the projections based on partitioned models considering native and invaded areas separately. CONCLUSIONS These results emphasize the importance of elucidating the niche dynamics of invasive species for obtaining accurately predicted ranges, which may help identify risk areas masked by the assumption of niche conservatism. Furthermore, prevention and quarantine measures for ALB and CLB are clearly needed to avoid future serious damage to forest ecosystems. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuting Zhou
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Tao
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | | | - Shixiang Zong
- Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuezhen Ge
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
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29
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Triki HEM, Ribeyre F, Pinard F, Jaeger M. Coupling Plant Growth Models and Pest and Disease Models: An Interaction Structure Proposal, MIMIC. PLANT PHENOMICS (WASHINGTON, D.C.) 2023; 5:0077. [PMID: 37545839 PMCID: PMC10403158 DOI: 10.34133/plantphenomics.0077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
Coupling plant growth model with pests and diseases (P&D) models, with consideration for the long-term feedback that occurs after the interaction, is still a challenging task nowadays. While a number of studies have examined various methodologies, none of them provides a generic frame able to host existing models and their codes without updating deeply their architecture. We developed MIMIC (Mediation Interface for Model Inner Coupling), an open-access framework/tool for this objective. MIMIC allows to couple plant growth and P&D models in a variety of ways. Users can experiment with various interaction configurations, ranging from a weak coupling that is mediated by the direct exchange of inputs and outputs between models to an advanced coupling that utilizes a third-party tool if the models' data or operating cycles do not align. The users decide how the interactions operate, and the platform offers powerful tools to design key features of the interactions, mobilizing metaprogramming techniques. The proposed framework is demonstrated, implementing coffee berry borers' attacks on Coffea arabica fruits. Observations conducted in a field in Sumatra (Indonesia) assess the coupled interaction model. Finally, we highlight the user-centric implementation characteristics of MIMIC, as a practical and convenient tool that requires minimal coding knowledge to use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Houssem E. M. Triki
- CIRAD, UMR AMAP, F-34398 Montpellier, France
- AMAP, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier, France
- CIRAD, UMR PHIM, F-34398 Montpellier, France
- PHIM, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Fabienne Ribeyre
- CIRAD, UMR PHIM, F-34398 Montpellier, France
- PHIM, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Fabrice Pinard
- PHIM, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, France
- CIRAD, UMR PHIM, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Marc Jaeger
- CIRAD, UMR AMAP, F-34398 Montpellier, France
- AMAP, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier, France
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30
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Teixeira S, Smeraldo S, Russo D. Unveiling the Potential Distribution of the Highly Threatened Madeira Pipistrelle ( Pipistrellus maderensis): Do Different Evolutionary Significant Units Exist? BIOLOGY 2023; 12:998. [PMID: 37508426 PMCID: PMC10376549 DOI: 10.3390/biology12070998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2023] [Revised: 07/08/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023]
Abstract
The isolation of islands has played a significant role in shaping the unique evolutionary histories of many species of flora and fauna, including bats. One notable example is the Madeira pipistrelle (Pipistrellus maderensis), which inhabits the Macaronesian archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, and the Canary Islands. Despite the high biogeographic and conservation importance of this species, there is limited information on its ecology and evolutionary history across different archipelagos. In our study, we employed species distribution models (SDMs) to identify suitable habitats for the Madeira pipistrelle and determine the environmental factors influencing its distribution. Additionally, we conducted molecular comparisons using mitochondrial DNA data from various Macaronesian islands. Molecular analyses provided compelling evidence for the presence of distinct Evolutionary Significant Units on the different archipelagos. We identified distinct haplotypes in the populations of Madeira and the Canary Islands, with a genetic distance ranging from a minimum of 2.4% to a maximum of 3.3% between samples from different archipelagos. In support of this, SDMs highlighted relevant dissimilarities between the environmental requirements of the populations of the three archipelagos, particularly the climatic niche. Our research demonstrates that deeper investigations that combine ecological, morphological, and genetic areas are necessary to implement tailored conservation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sérgio Teixeira
- Faculty of Life Sciences (FCV), Universidade da Madeira, Campus da Penteada, 9000-082 Funchal, Madeira, Portugal
| | - Sonia Smeraldo
- Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Evolution (AnEcoEvo), Dipartimento di Agraria, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Università, 100, Portici, 80055 Naples, Italy
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale del Mezzogiorno, Via della Salute, 2, Portici, 80055 Naples, Italy
| | - Danilo Russo
- Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Evolution (AnEcoEvo), Dipartimento di Agraria, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Università, 100, Portici, 80055 Naples, Italy
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31
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Auge G, Hankofer V, Groth M, Antoniou-Kourounioti R, Ratikainen I, Lampei C. Plant environmental memory: implications, mechanisms and opportunities for plant scientists and beyond. AOB PLANTS 2023; 15:plad032. [PMID: 37415723 PMCID: PMC10321398 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plad032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023]
Abstract
Plants are extremely plastic organisms. They continuously receive and integrate environmental information and adjust their growth and development to favour fitness and survival. When this integration of information affects subsequent life stages or the development of subsequent generations, it can be considered an environmental memory. Thus, plant memory is a relevant mechanism by which plants respond adaptively to different environments. If the cost of maintaining the response is offset by its benefits, it may influence evolutionary trajectories. As such, plant memory has a sophisticated underlying molecular mechanism with multiple components and layers. Nonetheless, when mathematical modelling is combined with knowledge of ecological, physiological, and developmental effects as well as molecular mechanisms as a tool for understanding plant memory, the combined potential becomes unfathomable for the management of plant communities in natural and agricultural ecosystems. In this review, we summarize recent advances in the understanding of plant memory, discuss the ecological requirements for its evolution, outline the multilayered molecular network and mechanisms required for accurate and fail-proof plant responses to variable environments, point out the direct involvement of the plant metabolism and discuss the tremendous potential of various types of models to further our understanding of the plant's environmental memory. Throughout, we emphasize the use of plant memory as a tool to unlock the secrets of the natural world.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Valentin Hankofer
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Munich, Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764 Oberschleißheim, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Martin Groth
- Institute of Functional Epigenetics, Helmholtz Munich, Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764 Oberschleißheim, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Rea Antoniou-Kourounioti
- School of Molecular Biosciences, University of Glasgow, Sir James Black Building, University Ave, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Irja Ratikainen
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Realfagbygget, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Christian Lampei
- Department of Biology (FB17), Plant Ecology and Geobotany Group, University of Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch-Straße 8, 35032 Marburg, Germany
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32
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Kermorvant C, Liquet B, Litt G, Mengersen K, Peterson EE, Hyndman RJ, Jones JB, Leigh C. Understanding links between water-quality variables and nitrate concentration in freshwater streams using high frequency sensor data. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0287640. [PMID: 37390064 PMCID: PMC10313027 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Real-time monitoring using in-situ sensors is becoming a common approach for measuring water-quality within watersheds. High-frequency measurements produce big datasets that present opportunities to conduct new analyses for improved understanding of water-quality dynamics and more effective management of rivers and streams. Of primary importance is enhancing knowledge of the relationships between nitrate, one of the most reactive forms of inorganic nitrogen in the aquatic environment, and other water-quality variables. We analysed high-frequency water-quality data from in-situ sensors deployed in three sites from different watersheds and climate zones within the National Ecological Observatory Network, USA. We used generalised additive mixed models to explain the nonlinear relationships at each site between nitrate concentration and conductivity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and elevation. Temporal auto-correlation was modelled with an auto-regressive-moving-average (ARIMA) model and we examined the relative importance of the explanatory variables. Total deviance explained by the models was high for all sites (99%). Although variable importance and the smooth regression parameters differed among sites, the models explaining the most variation in nitrate contained the same explanatory variables. This study demonstrates that building a model for nitrate using the same set of explanatory water-quality variables is achievable, even for sites with vastly different environmental and climatic characteristics. Applying such models will assist managers to select cost-effective water-quality variables to monitor when the goals are to gain a spatial and temporal in-depth understanding of nitrate dynamics and adapt management plans accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claire Kermorvant
- Le CNRS et l’Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour, Laboratoire de Mathématiques et de leurs Applications de Pau, Anglet, France
| | - Benoit Liquet
- Le CNRS et l’Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour, Laboratoire de Mathématiques et de leurs Applications de Pau, Anglet, France
- School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistical Frontiers, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Guy Litt
- Battelle, National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Kerrie Mengersen
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistical Frontiers, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Erin E. Peterson
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistical Frontiers, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Peterson Consulting, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rob J. Hyndman
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistical Frontiers, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jeremy B. Jones
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology and Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Catherine Leigh
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistical Frontiers, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Biosciences and Food Technology Discipline and School of Science, RMIT University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
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Mozafari B, Bruen M, Donohue S, Renou-Wilson F, O'Loughlin F. Peatland dynamics: A review of process-based models and approaches. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 877:162890. [PMID: 36933711 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Revised: 03/09/2023] [Accepted: 03/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Despite peatlands' important feedbacks on the climate and global biogeochemical cycles, predicting their dynamics involves many uncertainties and an overwhelming variety of available models. This paper reviews the most widely used process-based models for simulating peatlands' dynamics, i.e., the exchanges of energy and mass (water, carbon, and nitrogen). 'Peatlands' here refers to mires, fens, bogs, and peat swamps both intact and degraded. Using a systematic search (involving 4900 articles), 45 models were selected that appeared at least twice in the literature. The models were classified into four categories: terrestrial ecosystem models (biogeochemical and global dynamic vegetation models, n = 21), hydrological models (n = 14), land surface models (n = 7), and eco-hydrological models (n = 3), 18 of which featured "peatland-specific" modules. By analysing their corresponding publications (n = 231), we identified their proven applicability domains (hydrology and carbon cycles dominated) for different peatland types and climate zones (northern bogs and fens dominated). The studies range in scale from small plots to global, and from single events to millennia. Following a FOSS (Free Open-Source Software) and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) assessment, the number of models was reduced to 12. Then, we conducted a technical review of the approaches and associated challenges, as well as the basic aspects of each model, e.g., spatiotemporal resolution, input/output data format and modularity. Our review streamlines the process of model selection and highlights: (i) standardization and coordination are required for both data exchange and model calibration/validation to facilitate intercomparison studies; and (ii) there are overlaps in the models' scopes and approaches, making it imperative to fully optimize the strengths of existing models rather than creating redundant ones. In this regard, we provide a futuristic outlook for a 'peatland community modelling platform' and suggest an international peatland modelling intercomparison project.
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Affiliation(s)
- Behzad Mozafari
- School of Civil Engineering, UCD Earth Institute and UCD Dooge Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland.
| | - Michael Bruen
- School of Civil Engineering, UCD Earth Institute and UCD Dooge Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Shane Donohue
- School of Civil Engineering and UCD Earth Institute, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Florence Renou-Wilson
- School of Biology and Environmental Science, Science Centre-West, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Fiachra O'Loughlin
- School of Civil Engineering, UCD Earth Institute and UCD Dooge Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland
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Mawer R, Pauwels IS, Bruneel SP, Goethals PLM, Kopecki I, Elings J, Coeck J, Schneider M. Individual based models for the simulation of fish movement near barriers: Current work and future directions. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 335:117538. [PMID: 36848809 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Revised: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
River fragmentation is an increasing issue for water managers and conservationists. Barriers such as dams interfere with freshwater fish migration, leading to drastic population declines. While there are a range of widely implemented mitigation approaches, e.g. fish passes, such measures are often inefficient due to suboptimal operation and design. There is increasing need to be able to assess mitigation options prior to implementation. Individual based models (IBMs) are a promising option. IBMs can simulate the fine-scale movement of individual fish within a population as they attempt to find a fish pass, incorporating movement processes themselves. Moreover, IBMs have high transferability to other sites or conditions (e.g. changing mitigation, change in flow conditions), making them potentially valuable for freshwater fish conservation yet their application to the fine-scale movement of fish past barriers is still novel. Here, we present an overview of existing IBMs for fine-scale freshwater fish movement, with emphasis on study species and the parameters driving movement in the models. In this review, we focus on IBMs suitable for the simulation of fish tracks as they approach or pass a single barrier. The selected IBMs for modelling fine-scale freshwater fish movement largely focus on salmonids and cyprinid species. IBMs have many applications in the context of fish passage, such as testing different mitigation options or understanding processes behind movement. Existing IBMs include movement processes such as attraction and rejection behaviours, as reported in literature. Yet some factors affecting fish movement e.g. biotic interactions are not covered by existing IBMs. As the technology available for fine scale data collection continues to advance, such as increasing data linking fish behaviour to hydraulics, IBMs could become a more common tool in the design and implementation of fish bypass structures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel Mawer
- University of Ghent, Ghent, Belgium; SJE Ecohydraulic Engineering, Stuttgart, Germany.
| | - Ine S Pauwels
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium
| | | | | | | | | | - Johan Coeck
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium
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Sharifian S, Mortazavi MS, Nozar SLM. Predicting present spatial distribution and habitat preferences of commercial fishes using a maximum entropy approach. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023:10.1007/s11356-023-27467-3. [PMID: 37219769 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-27467-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
The knowledge of the geographical distribution and habitat preferences of marine species is the key to protecting marine ecosystems. Modeling the distribution of marine species through environmental variables is an essential step to understanding and reducing climate change effects on marine biodiversity and related human populations. In this study, the present distributions of commercial fishes including Acanthopagrus latus, Planiliza klunzingeri, and Pomadasys kaakan were modeled using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling technique and a set of 22 environmental variables. In total, 1531 geographical records belonging to three species were extracted from online databases Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS, 829 records, 54%), Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, 17 records, 1%), and literature (685 records, 45%) during September to December 2022. The findings showed the values of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) above 0.99 for all species indicating the high performance of this technique to reflect the actual distribution of species. Environmental factors such as depth (19.68%), sea surface temperature (SST) (19.40%), and wave height (20.71%) were the strongest environmental predictors determining the present distribution and habitat preferences of the three commercial fish species. The Persian Gulf, Iranian coasts of the Sea of Oman, North Arabian Sea, North-East areas of the Indian Ocean, and North coasts of Australia are among the areas with ideal environmental conditions for the species. For all species, the percentage of habitats with high suitability (13.35%) was higher compared to habitats with low suitability (6.56%). However, a high percentage of species occurrence habitats had unsuitable conditions (68.58%) showing the vulnerability of these commercial fishes. Significant management strategies are needed to protect preferred habitats to minimize the effect of fishery and climate change on the population stocks of these commercial fishes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sana Sharifian
- Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran.
| | - Mohammad Seddiq Mortazavi
- Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
| | - Seyedeh Laili Mohebbi Nozar
- Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
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O'Neill D, Häkkinen H, Neumann J, Shaffrey L, Cheffings C, Norris K, Pettorelli N. Investigating the potential of social media and citizen science data to track changes in species' distributions. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10063. [PMID: 37168983 PMCID: PMC10166650 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Revised: 04/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023] Open
Abstract
How to best track species as they rapidly alter their distributions in response to climate change has become a key scientific priority. Information on species distributions is derived from biological records, which tend to be primarily sourced from traditional recording schemes, but increasingly also by citizen science initiatives and social media platforms, with biological recording having become more accessible to the general public. To date, however, our understanding of the respective potential of social media and citizen science to complement the information gathered by traditional recording schemes remains limited, particularly when it comes to tracking species on the move with climate change. To address this gap, we investigated how species occurrence observations vary between different sources and to what extent traditional, citizen science, and social media records are complementary, using the Banded Demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens) in Britain as a case study. Banded Demoiselle occurrences were extracted from citizen science initiatives (iRecord and iNaturalist) and social media platforms (Facebook, Flickr, and Twitter), and compared with traditional records primarily sourced from the British Dragonfly Society. Our results showed that species presence maps differ between record types, with 61% of the citizen science, 58% of the traditional, and 49% of the social media observations being unique to that data type. Banded Demoiselle habitat suitability maps differed most according to traditional and social media projections, with traditional and citizen science being the most consistent. We conclude that (i) social media records provide insights into the Banded Demoiselle distribution and habitat preference that are different from, and complementary to, the insights gathered from traditional recording schemes and citizen science initiatives; (ii) predicted habitat suitability maps that ignore information from social media records can substantially underestimate (by over 3500 km2 in the case of the Banded Demoiselle) potential suitable habitat availability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daisy O'Neill
- Institute of ZoologyZoological Society of LondonLondonUK
- Department of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Henry Häkkinen
- Institute of ZoologyZoological Society of LondonLondonUK
| | - Jessica Neumann
- Department of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Len Shaffrey
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
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Cuervo PF, Artigas P, Lorenzo-Morales J, Bargues MD, Mas-Coma S. Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040187. [PMID: 37104313 PMCID: PMC10141209 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Fernando Cuervo
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Correspondence:
| | - Patricio Artigas
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jacob Lorenzo-Morales
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Instituto Universitario de Enfermedades Tropicales y Salud Pública de Canarias, Universidad de La Laguna, Av. Astrofísico Fco. Sánchez s/n, 38203 La Laguna, Canary Islands, Spain
| | - María Dolores Bargues
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Santiago Mas-Coma
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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Guo Y, Zhao Z, Zhu F, Gao B. The impact of global warming on the potential suitable planting area of Pistacia chinensis is limited. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 864:161007. [PMID: 36549530 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Revised: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Pistacia chinensis Bunge. is one of the main woody oil crops with a large artificial planting area in China and has important economic and ecological value. Here, based on 237 occurrence data and 22 environmental variables, we explored the potential planting area of P. chinensis in China in the present and future climate change scenarios by using a comprehensive model method. To fully consider the potential planting area of P. chinensis under specific climate change conditions and the limitations of soil conditions, we separately built two niche models to simulate the climate niche and soil demand niche, and then used the intersection of the two models as the result of the comprehensive habitat suitability model, finally, we used land-use data to filter the CHS model result. Our results showed, that under the baseline condition, the potential planting area of P. chinensis covers approximately 0.74 × 106 km2 in China. The future projection showed that the impact of global warming on the potentially suitable planting area of P. chinensis is limited, and most of the existing suitable habitats are not affected by climate change. With increasing temperature, the potential planting area will expand northward and slightly contract in the south margin, and its area will be slightly increased. Therefore, this species has great planting potential in China and should be given priority in the future afforestation plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanlong Guo
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Zefang Zhao
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Fuxin Zhu
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
| | - Bei Gao
- Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crops, Xi'an 710014, China
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Lõhmus A, Motiejūnaitė J, Lõhmus P. Regionally Varying Habitat Relationships in Lichens: The Concept and Evidence with an Emphasis on North-Temperate Ecosystems. J Fungi (Basel) 2023; 9:jof9030341. [PMID: 36983509 PMCID: PMC10056719 DOI: 10.3390/jof9030341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Revised: 03/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Habitat ecology of lichens (lichen-forming fungi) involves diverse adaptations to stressful environments where lichens use specific habitat conditions. Field observations confirm that such habitat ‘preferences’ can vary significantly across species’ distribution ranges, sometimes revealing abrupt changes over short distances. We critically review and generalize such empirical evidence as broad ecological patterns, link these with the likely physiological mechanisms and evolutionary processes involved, and outline the implications for lichen conservation. Non-replicated correlative studies remain only suggestive because the data are frequently compromised by sampling bias and pervasive random errors; further noise is related to unrecognized cryptic species. Replicated evidence exists for three macroecological patterns: (a) regional limiting factors excluding a species from a part of its microhabitat range in suboptimal areas; (b) microhabitat shifts to buffer regionally adverse macroclimates; (c) substrate suitability changed by the chemical environment, notably air pollution. All these appear to be primarily buffering physiological challenges of the adverse conditions at the macrohabitat scale or, in favorable environments, coping with competition or predation. The roles of plasticity, adaptation, dispersal, and population-level stochasticity remain to be studied. Although lichens can inhabit various novel microhabitats, there is no evidence for a related adaptive change. A precautionary approach to lichen conservation is to maintain long-term structural heterogeneity in lichen habitats, and consider lichen ecotypes as potential evolutionarily significant units and a bet-hedging strategy for addressing the climate change-related challenges to biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asko Lõhmus
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, J. Liivi 2, 50409 Tartu, Estonia
- Correspondence:
| | - Jurga Motiejūnaitė
- Laboratory of Mycology, Institute of Botany, Nature Research Centre, Žaliųjų Ežerų 49, LT-08406 Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Piret Lõhmus
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, J. Liivi 2, 50409 Tartu, Estonia
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Summers J, Lukas D, Logan CJ, Chen N. The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair. PEER COMMUNITY JOURNAL 2023; 3:e23. [PMID: 37424524 PMCID: PMC10328137 DOI: 10.24072/pcjournal.248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/11/2023]
Abstract
Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Dieter Lukas
- Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Corina J Logan
- Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig, Germany
- University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Nancy Chen
- University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA
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Estrada-Peña A, Guglielmone AA, Nava S. Worldwide host associations of the tick genus Ixodes suggest relationships based on environmental sharing rather than on co-phylogenetic events. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:75. [PMID: 36810195 PMCID: PMC9945728 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05641-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2022] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to capture how ticks of the genus Ixodes gained their hosts using network constructs. We propose two alternative hypotheses, namely, an ecological background (ticks and hosts sharing environmentally available conditions) and a phylogenetic one, in which both partners co-evolved, adapting to existing environmental conditions after the association took place. METHODS We used network constructs linking all the known pairs of associations between each species and stage of ticks with families and orders of hosts. Faith's phylogenetic diversity was used to evaluate the phylogenetic distance of the hosts of each species and changes occurring in the ontogenetic switch between consecutive stages of each species (or the extent of the changes in phylogenetic diversity of hosts for consecutive stages of the same species). RESULTS We report highly clustered associations among Ixodes ticks and hosts, supporting the influence of the ecological adaptation and coexistence, demonstrating a lack of strict tick-host coevolution in most cases, except for a few species. Keystone hosts do not exist in the relationships between Ixodes and vertebrates because of the high redundancy of the networks, further supporting an ecological relationship between both types of partners. The ontogenetic switch of hosts is high for species with enough data, which is another potential clue supporting the ecological hypothesis. Other results suggest that the networks displaying tick-host associations are different according to the biogeographical realms. Data for the Afrotropical region reveal a lack of extensive surveys, while results for the Australasian region are suggestive of a mass extinction of vertebrates. The Palearctic network is well developed, with many links demonstrating a highly modular set of relationships. CONCLUSIONS With the obvious exceptions of Ixodes species restricted to one or a few hosts, the results point to an ecological adaptation. Even results on species linked to groups of ticks (such as Ixodes uriae and the pelagic birds or the bat-tick species) are suggestive of a previous action of environmental forces.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alberto A. Guglielmone
- Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias, Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Rafaela—Instituto de Investigación de la Cadena Láctea (INTA-Consejo de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas), Rafaela, Santa Fe Argentina
| | - Santiago Nava
- Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias, Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Rafaela—Instituto de Investigación de la Cadena Láctea (INTA-Consejo de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas), Rafaela, Santa Fe Argentina
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Ganglo JC. Ecological niche model transferability of the white star apple (Chrysophyllum albidum G. Don) in the context of climate and global changes. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2430. [PMID: 36765149 PMCID: PMC9918511 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29048-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 02/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Chrysophyllum albidum is a forest food tree species of the Sapotaceae family bearing large berries of nutrition, sanitary, and commercial value in many African countries. Because of its socioeconomic importance, C. albidum is threatened at least by human pressure. However, we do not know to what extent climate change can impact its distribution or whether it is possible to introduce the species in other tropical regions. To resolve our concerns, we decided to model the spatial distribution of the species. We then used the SDM package for data modeling in R to compare the predictive performances of algorithms among the most commonly used: three machine learning algorithms (MaxEnt, boosted regression trees, and random forests) and three regression algorithms (generalized linear model, generalized additive models, and multivariate adaptive regression spline). We performed model transfers in tropical Asia and Latin America. At the scale of Africa, predictions with respect to Maxent under Africlim (scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, horizon 2055) and MIROCES2L (scenarios SSP245 and SSP585, horizon 2060) showed that the suitable areas of C. albidum, within threshold values of the most contributing variables to the models, will extend mostly in West, East, Central, and Southern Africa as well as in East Madagascar. As opposed to Maxent, in Africa, the predictions for the future of BRT and RF were unrealistic with respect to the known ecology of C. albidum. All the algorithms except Maxent (for tropical Asia only), were consistent in predicting a successful introduction of C. albidum in Latin America and tropical Asia, both at present and in the future. We therefore recommend the introduction and cultivation of Chrysophyllum albidum in the predicted suitable areas of Latin America and tropical Asia, along with vegetation inventories in order to discover likely, sister or vicarious species of Chrysophyllum albidum that can be new to Science. Africlim is more successful than MIROCES2L in predicting realistic suitable areas of Chrysophyllum albidum in Africa. We therefore recommend to the authors of Africlim an update of Africlim models to comply with the sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of IPCC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean Cossi Ganglo
- Laboratory of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi (Benin), Abomey-Calavi, Benin.
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43
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Kont R, Leivits M, Lõhmus A. Breaking out from a restricted range: alternative habitat models to assess population perspectives. J Nat Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126365] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/22/2023]
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Curd A, Chevalier M, Vasquez M, Boyé A, Firth LB, Marzloff MP, Bricheno LM, Burrows MT, Bush LE, Cordier C, Davies AJ, Green JAM, Hawkins SJ, Lima FP, Meneghesso C, Mieszkowska N, Seabra R, Dubois SF. Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:631-647. [PMID: 36394183 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2022] [Revised: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions-both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)-where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework-which brings together SDM and landscape metrics-can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amelia Curd
- IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France
| | | | | | - Aurélien Boyé
- IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France
| | - Louise B Firth
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, UK
| | | | | | - Michael T Burrows
- Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, UK
| | - Laura E Bush
- FUGRO GB Marine Limited, Gait 8, Research Park South, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Céline Cordier
- IFREMER, Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO LEBCO, Plouzané, France
| | - Andrew J Davies
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island, USA
- Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island, USA
| | | | - Stephen J Hawkins
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, UK
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- The Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, UK
| | - Fernando P Lima
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
| | - Claudia Meneghesso
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
- Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Nova Mieszkowska
- The Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, UK
- Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Rui Seabra
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
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Szymura TH, Chmolowska D, Szymura M, Zając A, Kassa H. Drivers of systematic bias in alien plant species distribution data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 857:159598. [PMID: 36302406 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2022] [Revised: 10/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Among the main challenges in modelling biological invasion is a lack of valid data on the absence of invasive species. Absence data are important for assessing the reliability of models, but multiple surveys at a location are needed. In practice, omission errors are more frequent than commission errors. We therefore quantified how eliminating potentially biased areas from invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) affected the models' performance, and we assessed how the distribution of biased areas correlated with environmental factors. We hypothesized that for neophytes, the distribution of biased areas corresponds to specific land relief and/or particular landscape and land use, but not the density of roads and urbanized areas. The data on neophytes were obtained from a distribution atlas covering approximately 31,000 km2 in Central Europe overlaid with a 2 × 2 km square grid. One hundred fifty-three species were used for modelling neophyte richness, and negative residuals from the model were assumed to indicate biased squares. Twenty invasive species were used as an independent dataset for testing the effect of excluding the biased squares on iSDM performance. The exclusion of biased squares increased the iSDM performance from an area under the curve value of 0.73 to 0.78. The best results were obtained by excluding 30 % of the squares from the original dataset. The presence of damp sites explained the distribution of biased squares; the density of roads and urbanized areas had no impact. The applied method allows distinguishing biased, plausibly undersampled squares in a species distribution atlas, the exclusion of which significantly improves iSDM performance. The results suggest that the commonly observed low sampling effort in areas distant from communication routes and urbanized areas was not crucial in modelling invasive species distribution, which can be related to smaller neophyte richness in remote areas resulting from low propagule pressure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomasz H Szymura
- Department of Ecology, Biogeochemistry and Environmental Protection, University of Wrocław, Przybyszewskiego 63, 51-148 Wrocław, Poland.
| | - Dominika Chmolowska
- Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Sławkowska 17, 31-016 Kraków, Poland.
| | - Magdalena Szymura
- Institute of Agroecology and Plant Production, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Grunwaldzki Sq. 24A, 50-363 Wrocław, Poland.
| | - Adam Zając
- Institute of Botany, Faculty of Biology and Earth Sciences, Jagiellonian University in Kraków, Kopernika 27, 31-501 Kraków, Poland.
| | - Henok Kassa
- Department of Ecology, Biogeochemistry and Environmental Protection, University of Wrocław, Przybyszewskiego 63, 51-148 Wrocław, Poland.
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Fabri-Ruiz S, Baudena A, Moullec F, Lombard F, Irisson JO, Pedrotti ML. Mistaking plastic for zooplankton: Risk assessment of plastic ingestion in the Mediterranean sea. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:159011. [PMID: 36170920 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 09/19/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Floating plastic debris is a pervasive pollutant in seas and oceans, affecting a wide range of animals. In particular, microplastics (<5 mm in size) increase the possibility that marine species consume plastic and enter the food chain. The present study investigates this potential mistake between plastic debris and zooplankton by calculating the plastic debris to zooplankton ratio over the whole Mediterranean Sea. To this aim, in situ data from the Tara Mediterranean Expedition are combined with environmental and Lagrangian diagnostics in a machine learning approach to produce spatially-explicit maps of plastic debris and zooplankton abundance. We then analyse the plastic to zooplankton ratio in regions with high abundances of pelagic fish. Two of the major hotspots of pelagic fish, located in the Gulf of Gabès and Cilician basin, were associated with high ratio values. Finally, we compare the plastic to zooplankton ratio values in the Pelagos Sanctuary, an important hotspot for marine mammals, with other Geographical Sub-Areas, and find that they were among the larger of the Western Mediterranean Sea. Our results indicate a high potential risk of contamination of marine fauna by plastic and advocate for novel integrated modelling approaches which account for potential trophic transfer within the food chain.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Fabri-Ruiz
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France; DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), IFREMER, INRAE, Institut Agro, Nantes, France.
| | - A Baudena
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France.
| | - F Moullec
- Department of Coastal Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, the Netherlands
| | - F Lombard
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France; Institut Universitaire de France, 75231 Paris, France
| | - J-O Irisson
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
| | - M L Pedrotti
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
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47
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Cobos ME, Peterson AT. Broad-scale factors shaping the ecological niche and geographic distribution of Spirodela polyrhiza. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0276951. [PMID: 37141194 PMCID: PMC10159170 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2022] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The choice of appropriate independent variables to create models characterizing ecological niches of species is of critical importance in distributional ecology. This set of dimensions in which a niche is defined can inform about what factors limit the distributional potential of a species. We used a multistep approach to select relevant variables for modeling the ecological niche of the aquatic Spirodela polyrhiza, taking into account variability arising from using distinct algorithms, calibration areas, and spatial resolutions of variables. We found that, even after an initial selection of meaningful variables, the final set of variables selected based on statistical inference varied considerably depending on the combination of algorithm, calibration area, and spatial resolution used. However, variables representing extreme temperatures and dry periods were more consistently selected than others, despite the treatment used, highlighting their importance in shaping the distribution of this species. Other variables related to seasonality of solar radiation, summer solar radiation, and some soil proxies of nutrients in water, were selected commonly but not as frequently as the ones mentioned above. We suggest that these later variables are also important to understanding the distributional potential of the species, but that their effects may be less pronounced at the scale at which they are represented for the needs of this type of modeling. Our results suggest that an informed definition of an initial set of variables, a series of statistical steps for filtering and exploring these predictors, and model selection exercises that consider multiple sets of predictors, can improve determination of variables that shape the niche and distribution of the species, despite differences derived from factors related to data or modeling algorithms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlon E Cobos
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology & Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
| | - A Townsend Peterson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology & Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
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McCrea R, King R, Graham L, Börger L. Realising the promise of large data and complex models. Methods Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.14050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Rachel McCrea
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University Lancaster UK
| | - Ruth King
- School of Mathematics and Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
| | - Laura Graham
- Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham Birmingham UK
- Biodiversity, Ecology & Conservation Group International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Vienna Austria
| | - Luca Börger
- Department of Biosciences Swansea University Swansea UK
- Centre for Biomathematics Swansea University Swansea UK
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49
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Koerich G, Fraser CI, Lee CK, Morgan FJ, Tonkin JD. Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:24-34. [PMID: 35934551 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.07.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Revised: 07/12/2022] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Antarctic ecosystems are under increasing anthropogenic pressure, but efforts to predict the responses of Antarctic biodiversity to environmental change are hindered by considerable data challenges. Here, we illustrate how novel data capture technologies provide exciting opportunities to sample Antarctic biodiversity at wider spatiotemporal scales. Data integration frameworks, such as point process and hierarchical models, can mitigate weaknesses in individual data sets, improving confidence in their predictions. Increasing process knowledge in models is imperative to achieving improved forecasts of Antarctic biodiversity, which can be attained for data-limited species using hybrid modelling frameworks. Leveraging these state-of-the-art tools will help to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by the remoteness of Antarctica, enabling more robust forecasts both near- and long-term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabrielle Koerich
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.
| | - Ceridwen I Fraser
- Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand
| | - Charles K Lee
- International Centre for Terrestrial Antarctic Research, School of Science, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand
| | - Fraser J Morgan
- Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Auckland 1072, New Zealand; Te Pūnaha Matatini, Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan D Tonkin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand; Te Pūnaha Matatini, Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems, Auckland, New Zealand; Bioprotection Aotearoa, Centre of Research Excellence, Canterbury, New Zealand.
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50
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Zhang X, Zhao J, Wang M, Li Z, Lin S, Chen H. Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9505. [PMCID: PMC9743064 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A. palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A. palmeri. The relative contributions of temperature‐related variables count to 70% or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached more than 40%. (ii) At present, the potentially suitable area is widely distributed in the central‐east and parts of southwest China, and the high suitable area is focused on the North China Plain. The potential suitable area predicted by WorldClim1.4 and WorldClim2.1 both accounts for about 31% of China's total land area. (iii) Future climate change will expand the suitable habitats to high latitudes and altitudes. The overall suitable area maximum increased to 44.93% under SSPs and 38.91% under RCPs. We conclude that climate change would increase the risk of A. palmeri expanding to high latitudes and altitudes, the results have practical implications for the effective long‐term management in response to the global warming of A. palmeri.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinyi Zhang
- Institute of Digital AgricultureFujian Academy of Agricultural SciencesFuzhouChina,State Key Laboratory for Ecological Pest Control of Fujian and Taiwan CropsInstitute of Applied Ecology, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry UniversityFuzhouChina
| | - Jian Zhao
- Institute of Digital AgricultureFujian Academy of Agricultural SciencesFuzhouChina
| | - Miaomiao Wang
- Institute of Digital AgricultureFujian Academy of Agricultural SciencesFuzhouChina
| | - Zhipeng Li
- Institute of Digital AgricultureFujian Academy of Agricultural SciencesFuzhouChina
| | - Sheng Lin
- State Key Laboratory for Ecological Pest Control of Fujian and Taiwan CropsInstitute of Applied Ecology, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry UniversityFuzhouChina
| | - Hong Chen
- Institute of Digital AgricultureFujian Academy of Agricultural SciencesFuzhouChina
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