Addressing context dependence in ecology

An audacious approach to conservation

New digital and sensor technology provides a huge opportunity to revolutionise conservation, but we lack a plan for deploying the technologies effectively. I argue that environmental research should be concentrated at a small number of 'super-sites' and that the concentrated knowledge from super-sites should be used to develop holistic ecosystem models. These, in turn, should be morphed into digital twin ecosystems by live connecting them with automated environmental monitoring programmes. Data-driven simulations can then help select pathways to achieve locally determined conservation goals, and digital twins could revise and adapt those decisions in real-time. This technology-heavy vision for 'smart conservation' provides a map toward a future defined by more flexible, more responsive, and more efficient management of natural environments.

Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities

Horizon scans have emerged as a valuable tool to anticipate the incoming invasive alien species (IAS) by judging species on their potential impacts. However, little research has been conducted on quantifying actual impacts and assessing causes of species-specific vulnerabilities to particular IAS due to persistent methodological challenges. The underlying interspecific mechanisms driving species-specific vulnerabilities therefore remain poorly understood, even though they can substantially improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Given that interspecific interactions underlying ecological impacts of IAS are often shaped by phenological synchrony, we tested the hypothesis that temporal mismatches in breeding phenology between native species and IAS can mitigate their ecological impacts. Focusing on the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), we combined an environmental DNA (eDNA) quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding survey in Belgium with a global meta-analysis, and integrated citizen-science data on breeding phenology. We examined whether the presence of native amphibian species was negatively related to the presence or abundance of invasive bullfrogs and whether this relationship was affected by their phenological mismatches. The field study revealed a significant negative effect of increasing bullfrog eDNA concentrations on native amphibian species richness and community structure. These observations were shaped by species-specific vulnerabilities to invasive bullfrogs, with late spring- and summer-breeding species being strongly affected, while winter-breeding species remained unaffected. This trend was confirmed by the global meta-analysis. A significant negative relationship was observed between phenological mismatch and the impact of bullfrogs. Specifically, native amphibian species with breeding phenology differing by 6 weeks or less from invasive bullfrogs were more likely to be absent in the presence of bullfrogs than species whose phenology differed by more than 6 weeks with that of bullfrogs. Taken together, we present a novel method based on the combination of aqueous eDNA quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding to quantify the ecological impacts of biological invaders at the community level. We show that phenological mismatches between native and invasive species can be a strong predictor of invasion impact regardless of ecological or methodological context. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of temporal alignment between native and IAS's phenologies into invasion impact frameworks.

Diatom abundance in the polar oceans is predicted by genome size

A principal goal in ecology is to identify the determinants of species abundances in nature. Body size has emerged as a fundamental and repeatable predictor of abundance, with smaller organisms occurring in greater numbers than larger ones. A biogeographic component, known as Bergmann's rule, describes the preponderance, across taxonomic groups, of larger-bodied organisms in colder areas. Although undeniably important, the extent to which body size is the key trait underlying these patterns is unclear. We explored these questions in diatoms, unicellular algae of global importance for their roles in carbon fixation and energy flow through marine food webs. Using a phylogenomic dataset from a single lineage with worldwide distribution, we found that body size (cell volume) was strongly correlated with genome size, which varied by 50-fold across species and was driven by differences in the amount of repetitive DNA. However, directional models identified temperature and genome size, not cell size, as having the greatest influence on maximum population growth rate. A global metabarcoding dataset further identified genome size as a strong predictor of species abundance in the ocean, but only in colder regions at high and low latitudes where diatoms with large genomes dominated, a pattern consistent with Bergmann's rule. Although species abundances are shaped by myriad interacting abiotic and biotic factors, genome size alone was a remarkably strong predictor of abundance. Taken together, these results highlight the cascading cellular and ecological consequences of macroevolutionary changes in an emergent trait, genome size, one of the most fundamental and irreducible properties of an organism.

Detecting Nonadditive Biotic Interactions and Assessing Their Biological Relevance among Temperate Rainforest Trees

AbstractInteractions between and within abiotic and biotic processes generate nonadditive density-dependent effects on species performance that can vary in strength or direction across environments. If ignored, nonadditivities can lead to inaccurate predictions of species responses to environmental and compositional changes. While there are increasing empirical efforts to test the constancy of pairwise biotic interactions along environmental and compositional gradients, few assess both simultaneously. Using a nationwide forest inventory that spans broad ambient temperature and moisture gradients throughout New Zealand, we address this gap by analyzing the diameter growth of six focal tree species as a function of neighbor densities and climate, as well as neighbor × climate and neighbor × neighbor statistical interactions. The most complex model featuring all interaction terms had the highest predictive accuracy. Compared with climate variables, biotic interactions typically had stronger effects on diameter growth, especially when subjected to nonadditivities from local climatic conditions and the density of intermediary species. Furthermore, statistically strong (or weak) nonadditivities could be biologically irrelevant (or significant) depending on whether a species pair typically interacted under average or more extreme conditions. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the statistical potential and the biological relevance of nonadditive biotic interactions when assessing species performance under global change.

Biological invasions negatively impact global protected areas

Protected areas underpin global biodiversity conservation and sustainability agendas. Biological invasions increasingly threaten the ecological functioning and long-term conservation value of protected areas, while a lack of information on impact impedes management decisions. We collated data from effects of biological invasions in protected areas to provide the first quantitative analysis of their global impacts. Based on 300 reported effects from 44 invasive species, we show that there are overall negative impacts from invasive species on both biotic and abiotic characteristics of protected areas globally. Impacts were pervasive across population, community, and ecosystem scales, and for the vast majority of invasive taxa with sufficient data. Negative impacts have been incurred around the world, with National Parks and World Heritage Sites in the Neartic and Neotropical regions the most studied. Notwithstanding context-dependencies and uneven research efforts, the recurrent negative impacts of invasive species indicate that current efforts are insufficient to curb current stressors and meet conservation and sustainability targets on land and in water. To address the risk of biological invasions in protected areas, it is imperative to prioritise fundamental research on ecological interactions, establish robust monitoring and prevention programs, and raise awareness through global initiatives.

A systematic review of invasive non-native freshwater bivalves

The introduction of invasive species has become an increasing environmental problem in freshwater ecosystems due to the high economic and ecological impacts it has generated. This systematic review covers publications from 2010 to 2020, focusing on non-native invasive freshwater bivalves, a particularly relevant and widespread introduced taxonomic group in fresh waters. We collected information on the most studied species, the main objectives of the studies, their geographical location, study duration, and type of research. Furthermore, we focused on assessing the levels of ecological evidence presented, the type of interactions of non-native bivalves with other organisms and the classification of their impacts. A total of 397 publications were retrieved. The studies addressed a total of 17 species of non-native freshwater bivalves; however, most publications focused on the species Corbicula fluminea and Dreissena polymorpha, which are recognised for their widespread distribution and extensive negative impacts. Many other non-native invasive bivalve species have been poorly studied. A high geographical bias was also present, with a considerable lack of studies in developing countries. The most frequent studies had shorter temporal periods, smaller spatial extents, and more observational data, were field-based, and usually evaluated possible ecological impacts at the individual and population levels. There were 94 publications documenting discernible impacts according to the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT). However, 41 of these publications did not provide sufficient data to determine an impact. The most common effects of invasive bivalves on ecosystems were structural alterations, and chemical and physical changes, which are anticipated due to their role as ecosystem engineers. Despite a considerable number of studies in the field and advances in our understanding of some species over the past decade, long-term data and large-scale studies are still needed to understand better the impacts, particularly at the community and ecosystem levels and in less-studied geographic regions. The widespread distribution of several non-native freshwater bivalves, their ongoing introductions, and high ecological and economic impacts demand continued research. Systematic reviews such as this are essential for identifying knowledge gaps and guiding future research to enable a more complete understanding of the ecological implications of invasive bivalves, and the development of effective management strategies.

Predicting emergent animal biodiversity patterns across multiple scales

Restoring biodiversity-based resilience and ecosystem multi-functionality needs to be informed by more accurate predictions of animal biodiversity responses to environmental change. Ecological models make a substantial contribution to this understanding, especially when they encode the biological mechanisms and processes that give rise to emergent patterns (population, community, ecosystem properties and dynamics). Here, a distinction between 'mechanistic' and 'process-based' ecological models is established to review existing approaches. Mechanistic and process-based ecological models have made key advances to understanding the structure, function and dynamics of animal biodiversity, but are typically designed to account for specific levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales. Cross-scale ecological models, which predict emergent co-occurring biodiversity patterns at interacting scales of space, time and biological organisation, is a critical next step in predictive ecology. A way forward is to first capitalise on existing models to systematically evaluate the ability of scale-explicit mechanisms and processes to predict emergent patterns at alternative scales. Such model intercomparisons will reveal mechanism to process transitions across fine to broad scales, overcome approach-specific barriers to model realism or tractability and identify gaps which necessitate the development of new fundamental principles. Key challenges surrounding model complexity and uncertainty would need to be addressed, and while opportunities from big data can streamline the integration of multiple scale-explicit biodiversity patterns, ambitious cross-scale field studies are also needed. Crucially, overcoming cross-scale ecological modelling challenges would unite disparate fields of ecology with the common goal of improving the evidence-base to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems under novel environmental change.

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

When indices disagree: facing conceptual and practical challenges

Hypothesis testing requires meaningful ways to quantify biological phenomena and account for alternative mechanisms that could explain the same pattern. Researchers combine experiments, statistics, and indices to account for these confounding mechanisms. Key concepts in ecology and evolution, such as niche breadth (NB) or fitness, can be represented by several indices, which often provide uncorrelated estimates. Is this because the indices use different types of noisy data or because the targeted phenomenon is complex and multidimensional? We discuss implications of these scenarios and propose five steps to aid researchers in identifying and combining indices, experiments, and statistics. Building on prior efforts to construct databases of hypotheses and indices and document assumptions, these steps help provide a formal strategy to reduce self-confirmatory bias.

Intestinal colonization resistance in the context of environmental, host, and microbial determinants

Microbial communities that colonize the human gastrointestinal (GI) tract defend against pathogens through a mechanism known as colonization resistance (CR). Advances in technologies such as next-generation sequencing, gnotobiotic mouse models, and bacterial cultivation have enhanced our understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the intricate microbial interactions involved in CR. Rather than being attributed to specific microbial clades, CR is now understood to arise from a dynamic interplay between microbes and the host and is shaped by metabolic, immune, and environmental factors. This evolving perspective underscores the significance of contextual factors, encompassing microbiome composition and host conditions, in determining CR. This review highlights recent research that has shifted its focus toward elucidating how these factors interact to either promote or impede enteric infections. It further discusses future research directions to unravel the complex relationship between host, microbiota, and environmental determinants in safeguarding against GI infections to promote human health.

Studying interactions among anthropogenic stressors in freshwater ecosystems: A systematic review of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments

Understanding the interactions among anthropogenic stressors is critical for effective conservation and management of ecosystems. Freshwater scientists have invested considerable resources in conducting factorial experiments to disentangle stressor interactions by testing their individual and combined effects. However, the diversity of stressors and systems studied has hindered previous syntheses of this body of research. To overcome this challenge, we used a novel machine learning framework to identify relevant studies from over 235,000 publications. Our synthesis resulted in a new dataset of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments in freshwater systems. By summarizing the methods used in these studies, quantifying trends in the popularity of the investigated stressors, and performing co-occurrence analysis, we produce the most comprehensive overview of this diverse field of research to date. We provide both a taxonomy grouping the 909 investigated stressors into 31 classes and an open-source and interactive version of the dataset (https://jamesaorr.shinyapps.io/freshwater-multiple-stressors/). Inspired by our results, we provide a framework to help clarify whether statistical interactions detected by factorial experiments align with stressor interactions of interest, and we outline general guidelines for the design of multiple-stressor experiments relevant to any system. We conclude by highlighting the research directions required to better understand freshwater ecosystems facing multiple stressors.

Properties of vertebrate predator-prey networks in the high Arctic

Predation is an important ecological process that can significantly impact the maintenance of ecosystem services. In arctic environments, the relative ecological importance of predation is thought to be increasing due to climate change, partly because of increased productivity with rising temperatures. Therefore, understanding predator-prey interactions in arctic ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of these northern regions. Network theory provides a framework for quantifying the structures of ecological interactions. In this study, we use dietary observations on mammalian and avian predators in a high arctic region, including isolated peninsulas on Ellesmere Island and north Greenland, to construct bipartite trophic networks. We quantify the complexity, specialization, and nested as well as modular structures of these networks and also determine if these properties varied among the peninsulas. Mammal prey remains were the dominant diet item for all predators, but there was spatial variation in diet composition among peninsulas. The predator-prey networks were less complex, had more specialized interactions, and were more nested and more modular than random expectations. However, the networks displayed only moderate levels of modularity. Predator species had less specialized interactions with prey than prey had with predators. All network properties differed among the peninsulas, which highlights that ecosystems often show complex responses to environmental characteristics. We suggest that gaining knowledge about spatial variation in the characteristics of predator-prey interactions can enhance our ability to manage ecosystems exposed to environmental perturbations, particularly in high arctic environments subject to rapid environmental change.

Addressing context dependence in studies of plant diversity to improve the understanding of natural enemy conservation

Increasing plant diversity has become a major aspect of habitat management and natural enemy conservation. Nonetheless, the results of plant diversity studies have varied significantly within and across agroecosystems. This variation has often been ascribed to a condition known as context dependence. However, concluding plainly that results are context dependent does not allow for the understanding of the actual underlying causes. Therefore, I discuss in this paper the importance of identifying and dealing with context dependence. I specifically comment on common biotic and abiotic inherent variables that can drive context dependence. The most common context types explored herein are location, time, nonfocal plant and crop species, and natural enemy species. Finally, I offer several recommendations for identifying and dealing with context dependence. I believe understanding the different forms in which context dependence arises is paramount to reduce unexplained variation and improve the predictability of plant diversity studies.

Plant beta-turnover rather than nestedness shapes overall taxonomic and phylogenetic beta-diversity triggered by favorable spatial-environmental conditions in large-scale Chinese grasslands

Introduction

Although it is widely acknowledged that biodiversity maintains plant community assembly processes, exploring the patterns and drivers of beta-diversity (β-diversity; species variation among local plant communities) has received much less attention compared to alpha-diversity (α-diversity; species variation within a local plant community). Here, we aim to examine the patterns and spatial-environmental drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity, and their components such as species turnover and nestedness, in large-scale Leymus chinensis grassland communities.

Methods

We collected plant community data from 166 sites across widely distributed L. chinensis communities in northern China, and then calculated the taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity indices (overall, turnover and nestedness) using a pairwise dissimilarity approach. To assess the effects and to explain the variation in the patterns of β-diversity, we collected data on geospatial, climate and soil conditions. We applied descriptive statistics, Mental correlations, and multiple linear regression models to assess the patterns and spatial-environmental drivers of β-diversity.

Results

The β-turnover, as compared to β-nestedness, exhibited a predominant influence, constituting 92.6% of the taxonomic β-diversity and 80.4% of the phylogenetic β-diversity. Most of the spatial-environmental variables were significantly positively correlated with the overall taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity and β-turnover, but not with β-nestedness. Climatic factors such as MAP and MAT were the strongest predictors of both taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity and β-turnover. The variance partitioning analysis showed that the combined effects of spatial and environmental factors accounted for 19% and 16% of the variation in the taxonomic and phylogenetic β-diversity (overall), 17% and 12% of the variation in the β-turnover, and 7% and 1% of the variation in the β-nestedness, respectively, which were higher than independent effects of either spatial or environmental factors.

Discussion

At larger spatial scales, the turnover component of β-diversity may be associated with the species complementarity effect, but dominant or functionally important species can vary among communities due to the species selection effect. By incorporating β-diversity into grassland management strategies, we can enhance the provision of vital ecosystem services that bolster human welfare, serving as a resilient barrier against the adverse effects of climate change at regional and global scales.

A nature-positive future with biological invasions: theory, decision support and research needs

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Tree contributions to climate change adaptation through reduced cattle heat stress and benefits to milk and beef production

Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades.

Microbial symbionts buffer hosts from the demographic costs of environmental stochasticity

Species' persistence in increasingly variable climates will depend on resilience against the fitness costs of environmental stochasticity. Most organisms host microbiota that shield against stressors. Here, we test the hypothesis that, by limiting exposure to temporally variable stressors, microbial symbionts reduce hosts' demographic variance. We parameterized stochastic population models using data from a 14-year symbiont-removal experiment including seven grass species that host Epichloë fungal endophytes. Results provide novel evidence that symbiotic benefits arise not only through improved mean fitness, but also through dampened inter-annual variance. Hosts with "fast" life-history traits benefited most from symbiont-mediated demographic buffering. Under current climate conditions, contributions of demographic buffering were modest compared to benefits to mean fitness. However, simulations of increased stochasticity amplified benefits of demographic buffering and made it the more important pathway of host-symbiont mutualism. Microbial-mediated variance buffering is likely an important, yet cryptic, mechanism of resilience in an increasingly variable world.

LIES of omission: complex observation processes in ecology

Advances in statistics mean that it is now possible to tackle increasingly sophisticated observation processes. The intricacies and ambitious scale of modern data collection techniques mean that this is now essential. Methodological research to make inference about the biological process while accounting for the observation process has expanded dramatically, but solutions are often presented in field-specific terms, limiting our ability to identify commonalities between methods. We suggest a typology of observation processes that could improve translation between fields and aid methodological synthesis. We propose the LIES framework (defining observation processes in terms of issues of Latency, Identifiability, Effort and Scale) and illustrate its use with both simple examples and more complex case studies.

Using the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa to inform decision-making

The Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is an important tool for biological invasion policy and management and has been adopted as an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) standard to measure the severity of environmental impacts caused by organisms living outside their native ranges. EICAT has already been incorporated into some national and local decision-making procedures, making it a particularly relevant resource for addressing the impact of non-native species. Recently, some of the underlying conceptual principles of EICAT, particularly those related to the use of the precautionary approach, have been challenged. Although still relatively new, guidelines for the application and interpretation of EICAT will be periodically revisited by the IUCN community, based on scientific evidence, to improve the process. Some of the criticisms recently raised are based on subjectively selected assumptions that cannot be generalized and may harm global efforts to manage biological invasions. EICAT adopts a precautionary principle by considering a species' impact history elsewhere because some taxa have traits that can make them inherently more harmful. Furthermore, non-native species are often important drivers of biodiversity loss even in the presence of other pressures. Ignoring the precautionary principle when tackling the impacts of non-native species has led to devastating consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystems, as well as poor management outcomes, and thus to significant economic costs. EICAT is a relevant tool because it supports prioritization and management of non-native species and meeting and monitoring progress toward the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 6.

Thresholds and alternative states in a Neotropical dry forest in response to fire severity

Neotropical xerophytic forest ecosystems evolved with fires that shaped their resilience to disturbance events. However, it is unknown whether forest resilience to fires persists under a new fire regime influenced by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. We asked whether there was evidence for a fire severity threshold causing an abrupt transition from a forest to an alternative shrub thicket state in the presence of typical postfire management. We studied a heterogeneous wildfire event to assess medium-term effects (11 years) of varying fire severity in a xerophytic Caldén forest in central Argentina. We conducted vegetation surveys in patches that were exposed to low (LFS), medium (MFS), and high (HFS) fire severities but had similar prefire woody canopy cover. Satellite images were used to quantify fire severity using a delta Normalized Burning Ratio (dNBR) and to map prefire canopy cover. Postfire total woody canopy cover was higher in low and medium than high severity patches, but the understory woody component was highest in HFS patches. The density of woody plants was over three times higher under HFS than MFS and LFS due to the contribution of small woody plants to the total density. Unlike LFS and MFS patches, the small plants in HFS patches were persistent, multistem shrubs that resulted from the resprouting of top-killed Prosopis caldenia trees and, more importantly, from young shrubs that probably established after the wildfire. Our results suggest that the Caldén forest is resilient to fires of low to moderate severities but not to high-severity fires. Fire severities with dNBR values > ~600 triggered an abrupt transition to a shrub thicket state. Postfire grazing and controlled-fire treatments likely contributed to shrub dominance after high-severity wildfire. Forest to shrub thicket transitions enable recurring high-severity fire events. We propose that repeated fires combined with grazing can trap the system in a shrub thicket state. Further studies are needed to determine whether the relationships between fire and vegetation structure examined in this case study represent general mechanisms of irreversible state changes across the Caldenal forest region and whether analogous threshold relationships exist in other fire-prone woodland ecosystems.

Multi-decadal improvements in the ecological quality of European rivers are not consistently reflected in biodiversity metrics

Humans impact terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems, yet many broad-scale studies have found no systematic, negative biodiversity changes (for example, decreasing abundance or taxon richness). Here we show that mixed biodiversity responses may arise because community metrics show variable responses to anthropogenic impacts across broad spatial scales. We first quantified temporal trends in anthropogenic impacts for 1,365 riverine invertebrate communities from 23 European countries, based on similarity to least-impacted reference communities. Reference comparisons provide necessary, but often missing, baselines for evaluating whether communities are negatively impacted or have improved (less or more similar, respectively). We then determined whether changing impacts were consistently reflected in metrics of community abundance, taxon richness, evenness and composition. Invertebrate communities improved, that is, became more similar to reference conditions, from 1992 until the 2010s, after which improvements plateaued. Improvements were generally reflected by higher taxon richness, providing evidence that certain community metrics can broadly indicate anthropogenic impacts. However, richness responses were highly variable among sites, and we found no consistent responses in community abundance, evenness or composition. These findings suggest that, without sufficient data and careful metric selection, many common community metrics cannot reliably reflect anthropogenic impacts, helping explain the prevalence of mixed biodiversity trends.

Marine ecosystem health and biological pollution: Reconsidering the paradigm

Our study re-evaluates a fundamental paradigm in marine invasion ecology - whether introduced species are considered as contaminants, i.e. just present in the system, or whether they are pollutants per se, i.e. they cause biological harm. This re-evaluation includes the concepts of marine ecosystem health and biological pollution using the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) as an example. Hence, we clarify the distinction between "biological contamination" (pertaining to Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) introductions) and "biological pollution" (associated with Invasive Alien Species - IAS). We emphasize the need for comprehensive indicators that consider their ecological, economic, and societal impacts. The MSFD Descriptor D2 NIS is analysed using the "biocontamination-biopollution" gradient to better reflect the complexities of ecosystem health. We discuss limitations in current monitoring and evaluation criteria, such as the absence of unified NIS/IAS monitoring, challenges in interpreting ecological impacts, and context-dependent assessment results. We emphasize the importance of context-specific management measures, considering the origin of pressures, whether endogenic (caused within a management area such a regional sea) or exogenic (with causes from outside a management area). Ultimately, we underscore the importance of a holistic and adaptable approach to address the diverse challenges posed by biocontamination and biopollution, protecting both marine ecosystems and human well-being in an ever-changing environment.

Emerging Trends in Ant-Pollinator Conflict in Extrafloral Nectary-Bearing Plants

The net outcomes of mutualisms are mediated by the trade-offs between the costs and benefits provided by both partners. Our review proposes the existence of a trade-off in ant protection mutualisms between the benefits generated by the ants' protection against the attack of herbivores and the losses caused by the disruption of pollination processes, which are commonly not quantified. This trade-off has important implications for understanding the evolution of extrafloral nectaries (EFNs), an adaptation that has repeatedly evolved throughout the flowering plant clade. We propose that the outcome of this trade-off is contingent on the specific traits of the organisms involved. We provide evidence that the protective mutualisms between ants and plants mediated by EFNs have optimal protective ant partners, represented by the optimum point of the balance between positive effects on plant protection and negative effects on pollination process. Our review also provides important details about a potential synergism of EFN functionality; that is, these structures can attract ants to protect against herbivores and/or distract them from flowers so as not to disrupt pollination processes. Finally, we argue that generalizations regarding how ants impact plants should be made with caution since ants' effects on plants vary with the identity of the ant species in their overall net outcome.

Oxidative stress changes interactions between 2 bacterial species from competitive to facilitative

Knowing how species interact within microbial communities is crucial to predicting and controlling community dynamics, but interactions can depend on environmental conditions. The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts that species are more likely to facilitate each other in harsher environments. Even if the SGH gives some intuition, quantitative modeling of the context-dependency of interactions requires understanding the mechanisms behind the SGH. In this study, we show with both experiments and a theoretical analysis that varying the concentration of a single compound, linoleic acid (LA), modifies the interaction between 2 bacterial species, Agrobacterium tumefaciens and Comamonas testosteroni, from competitive at a low concentration, to facilitative at higher concentrations where LA becomes toxic for one of the 2 species. We demonstrate that the mechanism behind facilitation is that one species is able to reduce reactive oxygen species (ROS) that are produced spontaneously at higher concentrations of LA, allowing for short-term rescue of the species that is sensitive to ROS and longer coexistence in serial transfers. In our system, competition and facilitation between species can occur simultaneously, and changing the concentration of a single compound can alter the balance between the two.

Future changes in key plant traits across Central Europe vary with biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat type

Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies and thus informing about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Yet, the evidence of trait-environment relationships (TERs) remains too heterogeneous for reliable predictions, partially due to insufficient consideration of trait syndromes specific to certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is still unclear whether non-native and native plants' traits align similarly along environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the impacts of future plant invasions. Using a Bayesian multilevel modelling framework, we assess TERs for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plants across six broad habitat types in Central Europe at a resolution of c. 130 km2 and use them to project trait change under future environmental change scenarios until 2081-2100. We model TERs between three key plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; seed mass, SM) and individual environmental factors (7 climate variables and % urban land cover) and estimate trait change summed across all environmental effects. We also quantify the change in the average trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depict multiple TERs, with important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience a future increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is estimated to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight conditions of competitive advantage of non-native plants over natives and vice versa and can serve as starting points for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services.

A process framework for integrating stressor-response functions into cumulative effects models

Stressor-response (SR) functions quantify ecological responses to natural environmental variation or anthropogenic stressors. They are also core drivers of cumulative effects (CE) models, which are increasingly recognized as essential management tools to grapple with the diffuse footprint of human impacts. Here, we provide a process framework for the identification, development, and integration of SR functions into CE models, and highlight their consequential properties, behaviour, criteria for selecting appropriate stressors and responses, and general approaches for deriving them. Management objectives (and causal effect pathways) will determine the ultimate stressor and target response variables of interest (i.e., individual growth/survival, population size, community structure, ecosystem processes), but data availability will constrain whether proxies need to be used for the target stressor or response variables. Available data and confidence in underlying mechanisms will determine whether empirical or mechanistic (theoretical) SR functions are optimal. Uncertainty in underlying SR functions is often the primary source of error in CE modelling, and monitoring outcomes through adaptive management to iteratively refine parameterization of SR functions is a key element of model application. Dealing with stressor interactions is an additional challenge, and in the absence of known or suspected interaction mechanisms, controlling main effects should remain the primary focus. Indicators of suspected interaction presence (i.e., much larger or smaller responses to stressor reduction than expected during monitoring) should be confirmed through adaptive management cycles or targeted stressor manipulations. Where possible, management decisions should selectively take advantage of interactions to strategically mitigate stressor impacts (i.e., by using antagonisms to suppress stressor impacts, and by using synergisms to efficiently reduce them).

A mechanistic framework of enemy release

The enemy release hypothesis (ERH) is the best-known hypothesis explaining high performance (e.g. rapid population growth) of exotic species. However, the current framing of the ERH does not explicitly link evidence of enemy release with exotic performance. This leads to uncertainty regarding the role of enemy release in biological invasions. Here, we demonstrate that the effect of enemy release on exotic performance is the product of three factors: enemy impact, enemy diversity, and host adaptation. These factors are modulated by seven contexts: time since introduction, resource availability, phylogenetic relatedness of exotic and native species, host-enemy asynchronicity, number of introduction events, type of enemy, and strength of growth-defence trade-offs. ERH-focused studies frequently test different factors under different contexts. This can lead to inconsistent findings, which typifies current evidence for the ERH. For example, over 80% of meta-analyses fail to consider ecological contexts which can alter study findings; we demonstrate this by re-analysing a recent ERH synthesis. Structuring the ERH around factors and contexts promotes generalisable predictions about when and where exotic species may benefit from enemy release, empowering effective management. Our mechanistic factor-context framework clearly lays out the evidence required to support the ERH, unifies many enemy-related invasion hypotheses, and enhances predictive capacity.

Same species, different population dynamics: Spatio-temporal differences of Undaria pinnatifida (Ochrophyta, Phaeophyceae) in the intertidal of North Patagonia, Argentina

Population dynamics can be influenced by physical and biological factors, particularly in stressful environments. Introduced species usually have great physiological plasticity, resulting in populations with different traits. Undaria pinnatifida, a macroalga originally described from northeast Asia, was introduced in Northern Patagonia, Argentina (San Matías Gulf) around 2010. To describe the spatio-temporal variability in population structure and morphometry of U. pinnatifida, we conducted monthly field samplings for 2 years at the intertidal area of two contrasting sites in the San Matías Gulf. Individuals of U. pinnatifida were classified by developmental stage, and their morpho-gravimetric variables were measured. In both intertidal sites juveniles were found in higher proportion during austral autumn and grew and matured during the autumn-winter months (from May onwards), and individuals senesced during early austral summer (December and January). Conversely, density and biomass were largely different between sites, and individuals showed slight morphological variability between sites. Environmental (e.g., nutrient concentration, available substrate) and biological factors (e.g., facilitation, competition) may explain the observed differences. Since there is not a macroalga with U. pinnatifida morphometrical characteristics in the intertidal environments of San Matías Gulf, studying this recent introduction gives us a better understanding of its potential ecological effects.

Consistent predictors of microbial community composition across spatial scales in grasslands reveal low context-dependency

Environmental circumstances shaping soil microbial communities have been studied extensively. However, due to disparate study designs, it has been difficult to resolve whether a globally consistent set of predictors exists, or context-dependency prevails. Here, we used a network of 18 grassland sites (11 of those containing regional plant productivity gradients) to examine (i) if similar abiotic or biotic factors predict both large-scale (across sites) and regional-scale (within sites) patterns in bacterial and fungal community composition, and (ii) if microbial community composition differs consistently at two levels of regional plant productivity (low vs. high). Our results revealed that bacteria were associated with particular soil properties (such as base saturation) and both bacteria and fungi were associated with plant community composition across sites and within the majority of sites. Moreover, a discernible microbial community signal emerged, clearly distinguishing high and low-productivity soils across different grasslands independent of their location in the world. Hence, regional productivity differences may be typified by characteristic soil microbial communities across the grassland biome. These results could encourage future research aiming to predict the general effects of global changes on soil microbial community composition in grasslands and to discriminate fertile from infertile systems using generally applicable microbial indicators.

Tree seedling functional traits mediate plant-soil feedback survival responses across a gradient of light availability

1. Though not often examined together, both plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) and functional traits have important influences on plant community dynamics and could interact. For example, seedling functional traits could impact seedling survivorship responses to soils cultured by conspecific versus heterospecific adults. Furthermore, levels of functional traits could vary with soil culturing source. In addition, these relationships might shift with light availability, which can affect trait values, microbe abundance, and whether mycorrhizal colonization is mutualistic or parasitic to seedlings. 2. To determine the extent to which functional traits mediate PSFs via seedling survival, we conducted a field experiment. We planted seedlings of four temperate tree species across a gradient of light availability and into soil cores collected beneath conspecific (sterilized and live) and heterospecific adults. We monitored seedling survival twice per week over one growing season, and we randomly selected subsets of seedlings to measure mycorrhizal colonization and phenolics, lignin, and NSC levels at three weeks. 3. Though evidence for PSFs was limited, Acer saccharum seedlings exhibited positive PSFs (i.e., higher survival in conspecific than heterospecific soils). In addition, soil microbes had a negative effect on A. saccharum and Prunus serotina seedling survival, with reduced survival in live versus sterilized conspecific soil. In general, we found higher trait values (measured amounts of a given trait) in conspecific than heterospecific soils and higher light availability. Additionally, A. saccharum survival increased with higher levels of phenolics, which were higher in conspecific soils and high light. Quercus alba survival decreased with higher AMF colonization. 4. We demonstrate that functional trait values in seedlings as young as three weeks vary in response to soil source and light availability. Moreover, seedling survivorship was associated with trait values for two species, despite both drought and heavy rainfall during the growing season that may have obscured survivorship-trait relationships. These results suggest that seedling traits could have an important role in mediating the effects of local soil source and light levels on seedling survivorship and thus plant traits could have an important role in PSFs.

The existence and strength of higher order interactions is sensitive to environmental context

One strategy for understanding the dynamics of any complex system, such as a community of competing species, is to study the dynamics of parts of the system in isolation. Ecological communities can be decomposed into single species, and pairs of interacting species. This reductionist strategy assumes that whole-community dynamics are predictable and explainable from knowledge of the dynamics of single species and pairs of species. This assumption will be violated if higher order interactions (HOIs) are strong. Theory predicts that HOIs should be common. But it is difficult to detect HOIs, and to infer their long-term consequences for species coexistence, solely from short-term data. I conducted a protist microcosm experiment to test for HOIs among competing bacterivorous ciliates, and test the sensitivity of HOIs to environmental context. I grew three competing ciliate species in all possible combinations at each of two resource enrichment levels, and used the population dynamic data from the one- and two-species treatments to parameterize a competition model at each enrichment level. I then compared the predictions of the parameterized model to the dynamics of the whole community (three-species treatment). I found that the existence, and thus strength, of HOIs was environment dependent. I found a strong HOI at low enrichment, which enabled the persistence of a species that would otherwise have been competitively excluded. At high enrichment, three-species dynamics could be predicted from a parameterized model of one- and two-species dynamics, provided that the model accounted for nonlinear intraspecific density dependence. The results provide one of the first rigorous demonstrations of the long-term consequences of HOIs for species coexistence, and demonstrate the context dependence of HOIs. HOIs create difficult challenges for predicting and explaining species coexistence in nature.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Contemporary perspectives on the ecological impacts of invasive freshwater fishes

Introductions of non-native freshwater fish continue to increase globally, although only a small proportion of these introductions will result in an invasion. These invasive populations can cause ecological impacts in the receiving ecosystem through processes including increased competition and predation pressure, genetic introgression and the transmission of non-native pathogens. Definitions of ecological impact emphasize that shifts in the strength of these processes are insufficient for characterizing impact alone and, instead, must be associated with a quantifiable decline of biological and/or genetic diversity and lead to a measurable loss of diversity or change in ecosystem functioning. Assessments of ecological impact should thus consider the multiple processes and effects that potentially occur from invasive fish populations where, for example, impacts of invasive common carp Cyprinus carpio populations are through a combination of bottom-up and top-down processes that, in entirety, cause shifts in lake stable states and decreased species richness and/or abundances in the biotic communities. Such far-reaching ecological impacts also align to contemporary definitions of ecosystem collapse, given they involve substantial and persistent declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions that cannot be recovered unaided. Thus, while not all introduced freshwater fishes will become invasive, those species that do develop invasive populations can cause substantial ecological impacts, where some of the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning might be sufficiently harmful to be considered as contributing to ecosystem collapse.

Marine heatwaves are not a dominant driver of change in demersal fishes

Marine heatwaves have been linked to negative ecological effects in recent decades1,2. If marine heatwaves regularly induce community reorganization and biomass collapses in fishes, the consequences could be catastrophic for ecosystems, fisheries and human communities3,4. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves have negative impacts on fish biomass or community composition, or even whether their effects can be distinguished from natural and sampling variability, remains unclear. We investigated the effects of 248 sea-bottom heatwaves from 1993 to 2019 on marine fishes by analysing 82,322 hauls (samples) from long-term scientific surveys of continental shelf ecosystems in North America and Europe spanning the subtropics to the Arctic. Here we show that the effects of marine heatwaves on fish biomass were often minimal and could not be distinguished from natural and sampling variability. Furthermore, marine heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization (gain of warm-affiliated species) or deborealization (loss of cold-affiliated species) in these ecosystems. Although steep declines in biomass occasionally occurred after marine heatwaves, these were the exception, not the rule. Against the highly variable backdrop of ocean ecosystems, marine heatwaves have not driven biomass change or community turnover in fish communities that support many of the world's largest and most productive fisheries.

A vision for incorporating human mobility in the study of human-wildlife interactions

As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales. Although there is increasing realization that both components of human activity substantially affect wildlife, capturing more dynamic processes in ecological studies has proved challenging. Here we propose a conceptual framework for developing a 'dynamic human footprint' that explicitly incorporates human mobility, providing a key link between anthropogenic stressors and ecological impacts across spatiotemporal scales. Specifically, the dynamic human footprint integrates a range of metrics to fully acknowledge the time-varying nature of human activities and to enable scale-appropriate assessments of their impacts on wildlife behaviour, demography and distributions. We review existing terrestrial and marine human-mobility data products and provide a roadmap for how these could be integrated and extended to enable more comprehensive analyses of human impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

The great escape: patterns of enemy release are not explained by time, space or climate

When a plant is introduced to a new ecosystem it may escape from some of its coevolved herbivores. Reduced herbivore damage, and the ability of introduced plants to allocate resources from defence to growth and reproduction can increase the success of introduced species. This mechanism is known as enemy release and is known to occur in some species and situations, but not in others. Understanding the conditions under which enemy release is most likely to occur is important, as this will help us to identify which species and habitats may be most at risk of invasion. We compared in situ measurements of herbivory on 16 plant species at 12 locations within their native European and introduced Australian ranges to quantify their level of enemy release and understand the relationship between enemy release and time, space and climate. Overall, plants experienced approximately seven times more herbivore damage in their native range than in their introduced range. We found no evidence that enemy release was related to time since introduction, introduced range size, temperature, precipitation, humidity or elevation. From here, we can explore whether traits, such as leaf defences or phylogenetic relatedness to neighbouring plants, are stronger indicators of enemy release across species.

Understanding 'it depends' in ecology: a guide to hypothesising, visualising and interpreting statistical interactions

Ecologists routinely use statistical models to detect and explain interactions among ecological drivers, with a goal to evaluate whether an effect of interest changes in sign or magnitude in different contexts. Two fundamental properties of interactions are often overlooked during the process of hypothesising, visualising and interpreting interactions between drivers: the measurement scale - whether a response is analysed on an additive or multiplicative scale, such as a ratio or logarithmic scale; and the symmetry - whether dependencies are considered in both directions. Overlooking these properties can lead to one or more of three inferential errors: misinterpretation of (i) the detection and magnitude (Type-D error), and (ii) the sign of effect modification (Type-S error); and (iii) misidentification of the underlying processes (Type-A error). We illustrate each of these errors with a broad range of ecological questions applied to empirical and simulated data sets. We demonstrate how meta-analysis, a widely used approach that seeks explicitly to characterise context dependence, is especially prone to all three errors. Based on these insights, we propose guidelines to improve hypothesis generation, testing, visualisation and interpretation of interactions in ecology.

Invasive alien insects represent a clear but variable threat to biodiversity

Invasive alien insects are an important yet understudied component of the general threat that biological invasions pose to biodiversity. We quantified the breadth and level of this threat by performing environmental impact assessments using a modified version of the Environmental Impact Assessment for Alien Taxa (EICAT) framework. This represents the largest effort to date on quantify the environmental impacts of invasive alien insects. Using a relatively large and taxonomically representative set of insect species that have established non-native populations around the globe, we tested hypotheses on: (1) socioeconomic and (2) taxonomic biases, (3) relationship between range size and impact severity and (4) island susceptibility. Socioeconomic pests had marginally more environmental impact information than non-pests and, as expected, impact information was geographically and taxonomically skewed. Species with larger introduced ranges were more likely, on average, to have the most severe local environmental impacts (i.e. a global maximum impact severity of 'Major'). The island susceptibility hypothesis found no support, and both island and mainland systems experience similar numbers of high severity impacts. These results demonstrate the high variability, both within and across species, in the ways and extents to which invasive insects impact biodiversity, even within the highest profile invaders. However, the environmental impact knowledge base requires greater taxonomic and geographic coverage, so that hypotheses about invasion impact can be developed towards identifying generalities in the biogeography of invasion impacts.

Common juniper, an overlooked conifer with high invasion potential in protected areas of Patagonia

The benefits of early detection of biological invasions are widely recognized, especially for protected areas (PAs). However, research on incipient invasive plant species is scarce compared to species with a recognized history of invasion. Here, we characterized the invasion status of the non-native conifer Juniperus communis in PAs and interface areas of Andean Patagonia, Argentina. We mapped its distribution and described both the invasion and the environments this species inhabits through field studies, a literature review, and a citizen science initiative. We also modeled the species' potential distribution by comparing the climatic characteristics of its native range with those of the introduced ranges studied. The results show that J. communis is now widely distributed in the region, occurring naturally in diverse habitats, and frequently within and close to PAs. This species can be considered an incipient invader with a high potential for expansion in its regional distribution range, largely due to its high reproductive potential and the high habitat suitability of this environment. Early detection of a plant invasion affords a valuable opportunity to inform citizens of the potential risks to high conservation value ecosystems before the invader is perceived as a natural component of the landscape.

A large-scale field experiment across six rivers illustrates how the effects of resource enrichment are context dependent

Resource supplementation can increase species richness and change the faunal composition of communities, but experiments have produced variable outcomes. An often overlooked element is that species richness can only increase if new taxa can disperse to resource-rich locations and invade established, local communities. We experimentally increased a basal resource (detritus) in six rivers in south-eastern Australia by driving wooden stakes into the riverbed to increase retention of detritus. Control sites were left untreated. Sites were located in agricultural sections with mostly cleared vegetation, but with intact (uncleared) reference sites upstream to provide sources of prospective colonists. We measured channel retentiveness and sampled benthic detritus and invertebrates before and after manipulation. We tested whether: greater retentiveness increased detritus densities, species richness and abundances and altered faunal composition; manipulation sites reached bio-equivalence with reference sites; new species arose from upstream reference areas; and whether outcomes were consistent across rivers. Only three rivers gained increases in detritus densities. All had low pre-existing amounts of in-stream wood compared with rivers that did not respond to treatment. Two rivers (Hughes Creek, Seven Creeks) gained higher species richness and invertebrate densities within 12 months and reached bio-equivalence with reference sites. In contrast, Turtons Creek showed species turnover through replacement of individuals. Only in Hughes Creek was there evidence of successful dispersal from the upstream reference area. The outcomes show that the effects of resource supplementation vary between rivers and suggest that pre-existing conditions (e.g. channel retentiveness) may cause these differences, providing clear evidence of context dependence.

Opposing effects of plant traits on diversification

Species diversity can vary dramatically across lineages due to differences in speciation and extinction rates. Here, we explore the effects of several plant traits on diversification, finding that most traits have opposing effects on diversification. For example, outcrossing may increase the efficacy of selection and adaptation but also decrease mate availability, two processes with contrasting effects on lineage persistence. Such opposing trait effects can manifest as differences in diversification rates that depend on ecological context, spatiotemporal scale, and associations with other traits. The complexity of pathways linking traits to diversification suggests that the mechanistic underpinnings behind their correlations may be difficult to interpret with any certainty, and context dependence means that the effects of specific traits on diversification are likely to differ across multiple lineages and timescales. This calls for taxonomically and context-controlled approaches to studies that correlate traits and diversification.

A global meta-analysis reveals contrasting impacts of air, light, and noise pollution on pollination

In the face of biodiversity decline, understanding the impact of anthropogenic disturbances on ecosystem functions is critical for mitigation. Elevated levels of pollution are a major threat to biodiversity, yet there is no synthesis of their impact on many of the major ecosystem functions, including pollination. This ecosystem function is both particularly vulnerable as it depends on the fine-tuned interaction between plants and pollinators and hugely important as it underpins the flora of most habitats as well as food production. Here, we untangle the impact of air, light, and noise pollution on the pollination system by systematically evaluating and synthesizing the published evidence via a meta-analysis. We identified 58 peer-reviewed articles from three databases. Mixed-effects meta-regression models indicated that air pollution negatively impacts pollination. However, there was no effect of light pollution, despite previous studies that concentrated solely on pollinators suggesting a negative impact. Evidence for noise pollution was extremely limited. Unless action is taken to tackle air pollution, the capacity to support well-functioning diverse pollination systems will be compromised, with negative consequences for habitat conservation and food security.

Predicting ecosystem metaphenome from community metagenome: A grand challenge for environmental biology

Elucidating how an organism's characteristics emerge from its DNA sequence has been one of the great triumphs of biology. This triumph has cumulated in sophisticated computational models that successfully predict how an organism's detailed phenotype emerges from its specific genotype. Inspired by that effort's vision and empowered by its methodologies, a grand challenge is described here that aims to predict the biotic characteristics of an ecosystem, its metaphenome, from nucleic acid sequences of all the species in its community, its metagenome. Meeting this challenge would integrate rapidly advancing abilities of environmental nucleic acids (eDNA and eRNA) to identify organisms, their ecological interactions, and their evolutionary relationships with advances in mechanistic models of complex ecosystems. Addressing the challenge would help integrate ecology and evolutionary biology into a more unified and successfully predictive science that can better help describe and manage ecosystems and the services they provide to humanity.

Phenotypic Plasticity in Juvenile Frogs That Experienced Predation Pressure as Tadpoles Does Not Alter Their Locomotory Performance

Anuran species can respond to environmental changes via phenotypic plasticity, which can also result in ecological impacts across the life history of such species. We investigated the effects of predation pressure (i.e., the non-consumption effect) from the dragonfly larva (Anax parthenope) on the phenotypical change of tadpoles into juvenile frogs (specifically the black-spotted pond frog, Pelophylax nigromaculatus), and also analyzed the impact of morphological changes on locomotory performance after metamorphosis. The experiments on predator impact were conducted in the laboratory. Body length, weight, development timing, and metamorphosis timing in the presence of dragonfly nymphs were measured in both tadpoles and juvenile frogs. The body and tail shapes of the tadpoles, as well as the skeletal shape of the juvenile frogs, were analyzed using landmark-based geometric morphometrics. Furthermore, the locomotory performance of the juvenile frogs was tested by measuring their jumping and swimming speeds. Tadpoles that had grown with predators possessed smaller bodies, deeper tail fins, and slower development rates, and they waited longer periods of time before commencing metamorphosis. Having said this, however, the effect of predator cues on the body length and weight of juvenile frogs was not found to be significant. These juvenile frogs possessed longer limbs and narrower skulls, with subtle morphological changes in the pelvis and ilium, but there was no subsequent difference in their swimming and jumping speeds. Our results showed that the changes in anatomical traits that can affect locomotor performance are so subtle that they do not affect the jumping or swimming speeds. Therefore, we support the view that these morphological changes are thus by-products of an altered tadpole period, rather than an adaptive response to predator-escape ability or to post-metamorphosis life history. On the other hand, delayed metamorphosis, without an increase in body size, may still be disadvantageous to the reproduction, growth, and survival of frogs in their life history following metamorphosis.

Functional trait space and redundancy of plant communities decrease toward cold temperature at high altitudes in Southwest China

Plant communities in mountainous areas shift gradually as climatic conditions change with altitude. How trait structure in multivariate space adapts to these varying climates in natural forest stands is unclear. Studying the multivariate functional trait structure and redundancy of tree communities along altitude gradients is crucial to understanding how temperature change affects natural forest stands. In this study, the leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous content from 1,590 trees were collected and used to construct the functional trait space of 12 plant communities at altitudes ranging from 800 m to 3,800 m across three mountains. Hypervolume overlap was calculated to quantify species trait redundancy per community. First, hypervolumes of species exclusion and full species set were calculated, respectively. Second, the overlap between these two volumes was calculated to obtain hypervolume overlap. Results showed that the functional trait space significantly increased with mean annual temperature toward lower altitudes within and across three mountains, whereas species trait redundancy had different patterns between mountains. Thus, warming can widen functional trait space and alter the redundancy in plant communities. The inconsistent patterns of redundancy between mountains suggest that warming exerts varying influences on different ecosystems. Identification of climate-vulnerable ecosystems is important in the face of global warming.