Vaccine effects and impact of vaccination programmes in post-licensure studies

Effects of PCV10 and PCV13 on pneumococcal serotype 6C disease, carriage, and antimicrobial resistance

BACKGROUND

The cross-protection of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) against serotype 6C is not clearly documented, although 6C represents a substantial burden of pneumococcal disease in recent years. A systematic review by the World Health Organization that covered studies through 2016 concluded that available data were insufficient to determine if either PCV10 (which contains serotype 6B but not 6A) or PCV13 (containing serotype 6A and 6B) conferred protection against 6C.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of randomized controlled trials and observational studies published between January 2010 - August 2022 (Medline/Embase), covering the direct, indirect, and overall effect of PCV10 and PCV13 against 6C invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), non-IPD, nasopharyngeal carriage (NPC), and antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

RESULTS

Of 2548 publications identified, 112 were included. Direct vaccine effectiveness against 6C IPD in children ranged between 70 and 85 % for ≥ 1 dose PCV13 (n = 3 studies), was 94 % in fully PCV13 vaccinated children (n = 2), and -14 % for ≥ 1 dose of PCV10 (n = 1). Compared to PCV7, PCV13 efficacy against 6C NPC in children was 66 % (n = 1). Serotype 6C IPD rates or NPC prevalence declined post-PCV13 in most studies in children (n = 5/6) and almost half of studies in adults (n = 5/11), while it increased post-PCV10 for IPD and non-IPD in all studies (n = 6/6). Changes in AMR prevalence were inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to PCV10, PCV13 vaccination consistently protected against 6C IPD and NPC in children, and provided some level of indirect protection to adults, supporting that serotype 6A but not 6B provides cross-protection to 6C. Vaccine policy makers and regulators should consider the effects of serotype 6A-containing PCVs against serotype 6C disease in their decisions.

Influenza Vaccine Administration and Effectiveness Among Children and Adults With Glomerular Disease

Introduction

Influenza infections contribute to excess healthcare utilization, morbidity, and mortality in individuals with glomerular disease (GD); however, influenza vaccination may not yield protective immune responses in this high-risk patient population. The objective of the present study was to describe influenza vaccine administration from 2010 to 2019 and explore the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in patients with GD.

Methods

We conducted an observational cohort study using healthcare claims for seasonal influenza vaccination (exposure) as well as influenza and influenza-like illness (outcomes) from commercially insured children and adults <65 years of age with primary GD in the Merative MarketScan Research Databases. Propensity score-weighted cox proportional hazards models and ratio-of-hazard ratios (RHR) analyses were used to compare influenza infection risk in years where seasonal influenza vaccines matched or mismatched circulating viral strains.

Results

The mean proportion of individuals vaccinated per season was 23% (range 19%-24%). In pooled analyses comparing matched to mismatched seasons, vaccination was minimally protective for both influenza (RHR 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-1.41) and influenza-like illness (RHR 0.86, 95% CI 0.59-1.24), though estimates were limited by sample size.

Conclusion

Rates of influenza vaccination are suboptimal among patients with GD. Protection from influenza after vaccination may be poor, leading to excess infection-related morbidity in this vulnerable population.

Real-World Effectiveness of the Varicella Vaccine among Children and Adolescents in Qatar: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Despite the availability of a highly efficacious vaccine, varicella outbreaks are still being reported globally. In this study, we evaluated the real-world effectiveness of varicella vaccination among children between the ages of 1 and 18 years old during the period 2017 to 2019 in Qatar.

METHODS

A matched case-control study was conducted that included all reported varicella-infected children who visited the primary healthcare system in Qatar from January 2017 to December 2019. The cases were children under the age of 18 years who were clinically diagnosed with varicella. The controls were of the same age, who visited the Primary Health Care Corporation (PHCC) during 2017-2019 with a skin rash where varicella infection was ruled out. The data on varicella vaccination for each participant were obtained from the electronic database in the PHCC during the study period.

RESULTS

We included 862 cases of varicella and 5454 matched controls, with a median age of 8 years (IQR 3-12); 47.4% were female and almost 50% were of Qatari nationality. The year 2019 had the highest varicella infection count with a total of 416 cases. The cases were less likely to be vaccinated against varicella, with approximately a quarter (25.6%) of cases and 36.7% of the controls having either one or two doses of the vaccine (p < 0.001). Compared to not being vaccinated, a single dose vaccination showed a 56% reduction in the odds of varicella infection [OR 0.44, 95% CI: 0.34-0.55; p < 0.000], and a two-dose vaccination showed an 86% reduction in the odds of varicella infection [OR 0.13, 95% CI: 0.06-0.29; p < 0.000].

CONCLUSION

In this multicultural setting, a two-dose varicella vaccination shows reasonable protection against varicella infection.

What we talk about when we talk about COVID-19 vaccination campaign impact: a narrative review

Background

The lack of precise definitions and terminological consensus about the impact studies of COVID-19 vaccination leads to confusing statements from the scientific community about what a vaccination impact study is.

Objective

The present work presents a narrative review, describing and discussing COVID-19 vaccination impact studies, mapping their relevant characteristics, such as study design, approaches and outcome variables, while analyzing their similarities, distinctions, and main insights.

Methods

The articles screening, regarding title, abstract, and full-text reading, included papers addressing perspectives about the impact of vaccines on population outcomes. The screening process included articles published before June 10, 2022, based on the initial papers' relevance to this study's research topics. The main inclusion criteria were data analyses and study designs based on statistical modelling or comparison of pre- and post-vaccination population.

Results

The review included 18 studies evaluating the vaccine impact in a total of 48 countries, including 32 high-income countries (United States, Israel, and 30 Western European countries) and 16 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, and 14 Eastern European countries). We summarize the main characteristics of the vaccination impact studies analyzed in this narrative review.

Conclusion

Although all studies claim to address the impact of a vaccination program, they differ significantly in their objectives since they adopt different definitions of impact, methodologies, and outcome variables. These and other differences are related to distinct data sources, designs, analysis methods, models, and approaches.

The Economic Value of Rotavirus Vaccination When Optimally Implemented in a High-Income Country

Rotavirus vaccination was introduced in high-income countries starting in 2006, with no recommendation for optimal implementation. Economic evaluations were presented before launch projecting potential impacts. Few economic reassessments have been reported following reimbursement. This study compares the short- to long-term economic value of rotavirus vaccination between pre-launch predictions and real-world evidence collected over 15 years, proposing recommendations for optimal vaccine launch. A cost-impact analysis compared rotavirus hospitalisation data after the introduction of vaccination between pre-launch modelled projections and observed data collected in the RotaBIS study in Belgium. A best model fit of the observed data was used to simulate launch scenarios to identify the optimal strategy. Data from other countries in Europe were used to confirm the potential optimal launch assessment. The Belgian analysis in the short term (first 8 years) indicated a more favourable impact for the observed data than predicted pre-launch model results. The long-term assessment (15 years) showed bigger economic disparities in favour of the model-predicted scenario. A simulated optimal vaccine launch, initiating the vaccination at least 6 months prior the next seasonal disease peak with an immediate very high vaccine coverage, indicated important additional potential gains, which would make vaccination very cost impactful. Finland and the UK are on such a route leading to long-term vaccination success, whereas Spain and Belgium have difficulties in achieving optimum vaccine benefits. An optimal launch of rotavirus vaccination may generate substantial economic gains over time. For high-income countries that are considering implementing rotavirus vaccination, achieving an optimal launch is a critical factor for long-term economic success.

SARS-CoV-2: Immunity, Challenges with Current Vaccines, and a Novel Perspective on Mucosal Vaccines

The global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has played a critical role in reducing pandemic spread, disease severity, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, the first-generation vaccines failed to block severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and transmission, partially due to the limited induction of mucosal immunity, leading to the continuous emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and breakthrough infections. To meet the challenges from VOC, limited durability, and lack of mucosal immune response of first-generation vaccines, novel approaches are being investigated. Herein, we have discussed the current knowledge pertaining to natural and vaccine-induced immunity, and the role of the mucosal immune response in controlling SARS-CoV2 infection. We have also presented the current status of the novel approaches aimed at eliciting both mucosal and systemic immunity. Finally, we have presented a novel adjuvant-free approach to elicit effective mucosal immunity against SARS-CoV-2, which lacks the safety concerns associated with live-attenuated vaccine platforms.

Self-reported Human Papillomavirus Vaccination and Vaccine Effectiveness Among Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Quantitative Bias Analysis

BACKGROUND

Self-report of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has ~80-90% sensitivity and ~75-85% specificity. We measured the effect of nondifferential exposure misclassification associated with self-reported vaccination on vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates.

METHODS

Between 2017-2019, we recruited sexually active gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men aged 16-30 years in Canada. VE was derived as 1-prevalence ratio × 100% for prevalent anal HPV infection comparing vaccinated (≥1 dose) to unvaccinated men using a multivariable modified Poisson regression. We conducted a multidimensional and probabilistic quantitative bias analysis to correct VE estimates.

RESULTS

Bias-corrected VE estimates were relatively stable across sensitivity values but differed from the uncorrected estimate at lower values of specificity. The median adjusted VE was 27% (2.5-97.5th simulation interval = -5-49%) in the uncorrected analysis, increasing to 39% (2.5-97.5th simulation interval = 2-65%) in the bias-corrected analysis.

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of participants erroneously reporting HPV vaccination would be required to meaningfully change VE estimates.

Herpes zoster vaccine effectiveness against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in New Zealand: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Herpes zoster (HZ) and associated complications cause significant burden to older people. A HZ vaccination programme was introduced in Aotearoa New Zealand in April 2018 with a single dose vaccine for those aged 65 years and a four-year catch up for 66-80 year-olds. This study aimed to assess the 'real-world' effectiveness of the zoster vaccine live (ZVL) against HZ and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN).

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide retrospective matched cohort study from 1 April 2018 to 1 April 2021 using a linked de-identified patient level Ministry of Health data platform. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate ZVL vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HZ and PHN adjusting for covariates. Multiple outcomes were assessed in the primary (hospitalised HZ and PHN - primary diagnosis) and secondary (hospitalised HZ and PHN: primary and secondary diagnosis, community HZ) analyses. A sub-group analysis was carried out in, adults ≥ 65 years old, immunocompromised adults, Māori, and Pacific populations.

FINDINGS

A total of 824,142 (274,272 vaccinated with ZVL matched with 549,870 unvaccinated) New Zealand residents were included in the study. The matched population was 93.4% immunocompetent, 52.2% female, 80.2% European (level 1 ethnic codes), and 64.5% were 65-74 years old (mean age = 71.1±5.0). Vaccinated versus unvaccinated incidence of hospitalised HZ was 0.16 vs. 0.31/1,000 person-years and 0.03 vs. 0.08/1000 person-years for PHN. In the primary analysis, the adjusted overall VE against hospitalised HZ and hospitalised PHN was 57.8% (95% CI: 41.1-69.8) and 73.7% (95% CI:14.0-92.0) respectively. In adults ≥ 65 years old, the VE against hospitalised HZ was 54.4% (95% CI: 36.0-67.5) and VE against hospitalised PHN was 75·5% (95% CI: 19.9-92.5). In the secondary analysis, the VE against community HZ was 30.0% (95% CI: 25.6-34.5). The ZVL VE against hospitalised HZ for immunocompromised adults was 51.1% (95% CI: 23.1-69.5), and PHN hospitalisation was 67.6% (95% CI: 9.3-88.4). The VE against HZ hospitalisation for Māori was 45.2% (95% CI: -23.2-75.6) and for Pacific Peoples was 52.2% (95% CI: -40.6 -83·7).

INTERPRETATION

ZVL was associated with a reduction in risk of hospitalisation from HZ and PHN in the New Zealand population.

FUNDING

Wellington Doctoral Scholarship awarded to JFM.

Effectiveness of the BBV-152 and AZD1222 vaccines among adult patients hospitalized in tertiary hospitals in Odisha with symptomatic respiratory diseases: A test-negative case-control study

Two vaccines, namely BBV-152 (COVAXIN^®) and AZD1222 (COVISHIELD™), were deployed against SARS-CoV-2 in India from January 16, 2021. Frontline health care workers were vaccinated first, followed by the adult population. However, limited data on vaccine effectiveness are available for the population of India. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of two doses of each of these two common vaccines against COVID-19 infection among hospitalized patients with pulmonary conditions. We adopted a test-negative case-control design and recruited a sample of adults who were admitted to one of six tertiary care hospitals in Odisha. All participants were hospitalized patients with COVID-19-like pulmonary signs and symptoms. Participants who tested positive for SARS CoV-2 via RT-PCR were treated as cases, and those who tested negative were treated as controls. Logistic regression, adjusted for participants' age, sex, and number of comorbidities, was used to calculate the effectiveness of the two vaccines, using the formula: 100^*(1 - adjusted odds ratio). Between March and July of 2021, data were collected from 1,614 eligible adults (864 cases and 750 controls). Among all participants, 9.7% had received two doses of one of the two COVID-19 vaccines. Vaccine effectiveness was 74.0% (50.5%-86.0%) for two doses of BBV-152 and 79.0% (65.4%-87.2%) for two doses of AZD1222. Thus, two doses of either BBV-152 or AZD1222 nCoV-19 vaccine were found to be substantially effective in protecting against COVID-19-related infection.

Factors influencing estimated effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in non-randomised studies

Non-randomised studies assessing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness need to consider multiple factors that may generate spurious estimates due to bias or genuinely modify effectiveness. These include pre-existing immunity, vaccination misclassification, exposure differences, testing, disease risk factor confounding, hospital admission decision, treatment use differences, and death attribution. It is useful to separate whether the impact of each factor admission decision, treatment use differences, and death attribution. Steps and measures to consider for improving vaccine effectiveness estimation include registration of studies and of analysis plans; sharing of raw data and code; background collection of reliable information; blinded assessment of outcomes, e.g. death causes; using maximal/best information in properly-matched studies, multivariable analyses, propensity analyses, and other models; performing randomised trials, whenever possible, for suitable questions, e.g. booster doses or comparative effectiveness of different vaccination strategies; living meta-analyses of vaccine effectiveness; better communication with both relative and absolute metrics of risk reduction and presentation of uncertainty; and avoidance of exaggeration in communicating results to the general public.

Real-world impact and effectiveness of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine: an updated systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, which poses significant disease burden, is decreasing following implementation of vaccination programs. Synthesized evidence on HPV vaccine real-world benefit was published in 2016. However, long-term impact of vaccination, and how vaccination programs influence infection rates and disease outcomes, requires further examination.

AREAS COVERED

We systematically reviewed observational studies on HPV vaccination within MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Google Scholar from 2016 to 2020, involving 14 years of follow-up data. We identified 138 peer-reviewed publications reporting HPV vaccine impact or effectiveness. Outcomes of interest included rates of infection at different anatomical sites and incidence of several HPV-related disease endpoints.

EXPERT OPINION

The expansion of HPV vaccination programs worldwide has led to a reduction in genital infection and significant decreases in incidence of HPV-related disease outcomes. Therefore, the WHO has set goals for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health concern. To track progress toward this requires an understanding of the effectiveness of different vaccination initiatives. However, the impact on males, and potential benefit of gender-neutral vaccination programs have not been fully explored. To present an accurate commentary on the current outlook of vaccination and to help shape policy therefore requires a systematic review of available data.

Changing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection through Delta and Omicron waves by vaccination status, previous infection and neighbourhood deprivation: a cohort analysis of 2.7 M people

BACKGROUND

Our study examines if SARS-CoV-2 infections varied by vaccination status, if an individual had previously tested positive and by neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation across the Delta and Omicron epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Population cohort study using electronic health records for 2.7 M residents in Cheshire and Merseyside, England (3rd June 2021 to 1st March 2022). Our outcome variable was registered positive test for SARS-CoV-2. Explanatory variables were vaccination status, previous registered positive test and neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation. Cox regression models were used to analyse associations.

RESULTS

Originally higher SARS-CoV-2 rates in the most socioeconomically deprived neighbourhoods changed to being higher in the least deprived neighbourhoods from the 1st September 2021, and were inconsistent during the Omicron wave. Individuals who were fully vaccinated (two doses) were associated with fewer registered positive tests (e.g., individuals engaged in testing between 1st September and 27th November 2021-Hazards Ratio (HR) = 0.48, 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) = 0.47-0.50. Individuals with a previous registered positive test were also less likely to have a registered positive test (e.g., individuals engaged in testing between 1st September and 27th November 2021-HR = 0.16, 95% CIs = 0.15-0.18. However, the Omicron period saw smaller effect sizes for both vaccination status and previous registered positive test.

CONCLUSIONS

Changing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Delta and Omicron waves reveals a dynamic pandemic that continues to affect diverse communities in sometimes unexpected ways.

Estimating conditional vaccine effectiveness

Vaccine effectiveness for COVID-19 is typically estimated for different outcomes that often are hierarchical in severity (e.g. any documented infection, symptomatic infection, hospitalization, death) and subsets of each other. Conditional effectiveness for a more severe outcome conditional on a less severe outcome is the protection offered against the severe outcome (e.g. death) among those who already sustained the less severe outcome (e.g. documented infection). The concept applies also to the protection offered by previous infection rather than vaccination. Formulas and a nomogram are provided here for calculating conditional effectiveness. Illustrative examples are presented from recent vaccine effectiveness studies, including situations where effectiveness for different outcomes changed at different pace over time. E(death | documented infection) is the percent decrease in the case fatality rate and E(death | infection) is the percent decrease in the infection fatality rate (IFR). Conditional effectiveness depends on many factors and should not be misinterpreted as a causal effect estimate. However, it may be used for better personalized communication of the benefits of vaccination, considering also IFR and epidemic activity in public health decision-making and communication.

Effectiveness of 10 and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against invasive pneumococcal disease in European children: SpIDnet observational multicentre study

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines covering 10 (PCV10) and 13 (PCV13) serotypes have been introduced in the infant immunization schedule of most European countries in 2010-11. To provide additional real-life data, we measured the effectiveness of PCV10 and PCV13 against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children of 12 European sites (SpIDnet).

METHODS

We compared the vaccination status of PCV10 and PCV13 serotype IPD (cases) to that of nonPCV13 serotype IPD (controls) reported in 2012-2018. We calculated pooled effectiveness as (1-vaccination odds ratio)*100, and measured effectiveness over time since booster dose.

RESULTS

The PCV13 and PCV10 studies included 2522 IPD cases from ten sites and 486 cases from four sites, respectively. The effectiveness of ≥ 1 PCV13 dose was 84.2% (95 %CI: 79.0-88.1) against PCV13 serotypes (n = 2353) and decreased from 93.1% (87.8-96.1) < 12 months to 85.1% (72.0-92.1) ≥ 24 months after booster dose. PCV13 effectiveness of ≥ 1 dose was 84.7% (55.7-94.7) against fatal PCV13 IPD, 64.5% (43.7-77.6), 83.2% (73.7-89.3) and 85.1% (67.6-93.1) against top serotypes 3, 19A and 1, respectively, and 85.4% (62.3-94.4) against 6C. Serotype 3 and 19A effectiveness declined more rapidly. PCV10 effectiveness of ≥ 1 dose was 84.8% (69.4-92.5) against PCV10 serotypes (n = 370), 27.2% (-187.6 to 81.6) and 85.3% (35.2-96.7) against top serotypes 1 and 7F, 32.5% (-28.3 to 64.5) and -14.4% (-526.5 to 79.1) against vaccine-related serotypes 19A and 6C, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PCV10 and PCV13 provide similar protection against IPD due to the respective vaccine serotype groups but serotype-specific effectiveness varies by serotype and vaccine. PCV13 provided individual protection against serotype 3 and vaccine-related serotype 6C IPD. PCV10 effectiveness was not significant against vaccine-related serotypes 19A and 6C. PCV13 effectiveness declined with time after booster vaccination. This multinational study enabled measuring serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness with a precision rarely possible at the national level. Such large networks are crucial for the post-licensure evaluation of vaccines.

Evaluation of the Real-World Effectiveness of Vaccines against COVID-19 at a Local Level: Protocol for a Test-Negative Case-Control Study

Vaccines against COVID-19 approved for use in the EU/EEA have been shown to be highly effective against wild-type SARS-CoV-2. However, their effectiveness against new variants may be reduced. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in the prevention of symptomatic and severe disease, during pre- and post-omicron phases. Individuals who sought treatment at the emergency department of a Portuguese hospital with COVID-19-like disease and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 are the subjects of the study. Patients who received a positive result are considered cases, while those with negative results are the controls. The test-negative case–control method is one of the study designs recommended by WHO to estimate the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19. The main advantage of this design is that it controls for the healthcare seeking bias, commonly present in traditional cohort and case–control designs. This study may have broad implications for understanding the real-world performance of the COVID-19 vaccines at the local level, which may play a key role in promoting adherence to vaccination. Moreover, this study may contribute to inform decisions regarding booster doses and variant-specific vaccine formulations leading to the control of this and future pandemics.

Population-Level Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Program in the United States: Causal Analysis Based on Structural Nested Mean Model

Though COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy, real-world effectiveness at the population level remains unclear. Based on the longitudinal data on vaccination coverage and daily infection cases from fifty states in the United States from March to May 2021, causal analyses were conducted using structural nested mean models to estimate the population-level effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program against infection with the original strain. We found that in the US, every 1% increase of vaccination coverage rate reduced the weekly growth rate of COVID-19 confirmed cases by 1.02% (95% CI: 0.26%, 1.69%), and the estimated population-level effectiveness of the COVID-19 program was 63.9% (95% CI: 18.0%, 87.5%). In comparison to a no-vaccination scenario, the COVID-19 vaccination campaign averted 8.05 million infections through the study period. Scenario analyses show that a vaccination program with doubled vaccination speed or with more rapid vaccination speed at the early stages of the campaign would avert more infections and increase vaccine effectiveness. The COVID-19 vaccination program demonstrated a high population-level effectiveness and significantly reduced the disease burden in the US. Accelerating vaccine rollout, especially at an early stage of the campaign, is crucial for reducing COVID-19 infections.

Post-licensure zoster vaccine effectiveness against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Given the substantial impact of herpes zoster on health and quality of life, and its considerable economic burden, prevention through vaccination is a priority. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the herpes zoster vaccines (recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV] and zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) against incident herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing the effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccines in adults aged 50 years or older, compared with no vaccination or another vaccine. We searched published literature on MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ProQuest Central, and Dimensions, as well as unpublished studies, grey literature, and the reference lists of included studies. Observational studies published in any language between May 25, 2006, and Dec 31, 2020, were included. Eligible studies were appraised for methodological quality using standardised critical appraisal instruments from the Joanna Briggs Institute, and data were extracted from selected studies using a standardised tool. Random-effects meta-analysis models were used to estimate pooled vaccine effectiveness for outcomes of interest (herpes zoster, herpes zoster ophthalmicus, and postherpetic neuralgia) among clinically and methodologically comparable studies, with a fixed-effects model also used for herpes zoster ophthalmicus. Vaccine effectiveness was also assessed in people with comorbidities. As a post-hoc analysis, a forward citation search was done on Jan 31, 2021. This study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42021232383.

FINDINGS

Our search identified 1240 studies, of which 1162 were excluded based on title and abstract screening. A further 56 articles were excluded on reading the full text. 22 studies (21 cohort studies and one case-control study, involving 9 536 086 participants and 3·35 million person-years in the USA, UK, Canada, and Sweden) were included in the quantitative analysis. Of these, 13 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The overall quality of evidence was very low for all outcomes. The pooled vaccine effectiveness for ZVL against herpes zoster in adults was 45·9% (95% CI 42·2-49·4; seven studies). The vaccine effectiveness for ZVL against postherpetic neuralgia was 59·7% (58·4-89·7; three studies) and against herpes zoster ophthalmicus (in a fixed-effects model) was 30·0% (20·5-38·4; two studies). ZVL was effective in preventing herpes zoster in people with comorbidities, including diabetes (vaccine effectiveness 49·8%, 45·1-54·1; three studies), chronic kidney disease (54·3%, 49·0-59·1; four studies), liver disease (52·9%, 41·6-62·1; two studies), heart disease (52·3%, 45·0-58·7; two studies), and lung disease (49·0%, 32·2-66·2; two studies). In a post-hoc analysis of two studies from the USA published after 2020, the pooled vaccine effectiveness for RZV against herpes zoster in adults was 79·2% (57·6-89·7). Substantial heterogeneity (I²≥75%) was observed in 50% of the meta-analyses.

INTERPRETATION

ZVL and RZV are effective in preventing herpes zoster in routine clinical practice. ZVL also reduces the risk of postherpetic neuralgia. Selection bias and confounding by unmeasured variables are inherent challenges of observational studies based on large health-care databases. Nevertheless, these findings will reassure policy makers, health practitioners, and the public that the vaccinations currently available for herpes zoster vaccination programmes are effective at preventing herpes zoster and related complications.

FUNDING

None.

Effectiveness of an inactivated virus-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, BBV152, in India: a test-negative, case-control study

Background

BBV152 is a whole-virion inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that has been deployed in India. The results of the phase 3 trial have shown clinical efficacy of BBV152. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of BBV152 against symptomatic RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

We conducted a test-negative, case-control study among employees of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (a tertiary care hospital in New Delhi, India), who had symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and had an RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 during the peak of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India between April 15 and May 15, 2021. Cases (test-positives) and controls (test-negatives) were matched (1:1) on the basis of age and gender. The odds of vaccination with BBV152 were compared between cases and controls and adjusted for level of occupational exposure (to COVID-19), previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and calendar time, using conditional logistic regression. The primary outcome was effectiveness of two doses of BBV152 (with the second dose received at least 14 days before testing) in reducing the odds of symptomatic RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, expressed as (1 – odds ratio) × 100%.

Findings

Between April 15 and May 15, 2021, 3732 individuals had an RT-PCR test. Of these, 2714 symptomatic employees had data on vaccination status, and 1068 matched case-control pairs were available for analysis. The adjusted effectiveness of BBV152 against symptomatic COVID-19 after two doses administered at least 14 days before testing was 50% (95% CI 33–62; p<0·0001). The adjusted effectiveness of two doses administered at least 28 days before testing was 46% (95% CI 22–62) and administered at least 42 days before testing was 57% (21–76). After excluding participants with previous SARS-CoV-2 infections, the adjusted effectiveness of two doses administered at least 14 days before testing was 47% (95% CI 29–61).

Interpretation

This study shows the effectiveness of two doses of BBV152 against symptomatic COVID-19 in the context of a huge surge in cases, presumably dominated by the potentially immune-evasive delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings support the ongoing roll-out of this vaccine to help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, while continuing the emphasis on adherence to non-pharmacological measures.

Funding

None.

Translation

For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

COVID-19 vaccine is correlated with favourable epidemiological indicators in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region (France): An ecological study

COVID-19 vaccination has proven to be effective in preventing severe cases, reducing viral load, and transmissibility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of vaccination 11 months after implementation on epidemiological indicators and the effective reproduction number in one French region. We plotted four indicators with vaccination coverage as the explaining variable and estimated the impact of vaccination using the reduction rates in infections and hospital admissions. A reduction of 98% in COVID-19-related hospitalisation 11 months after the vaccine campaign began in January 2021 has been reported while vaccine coverage increased over time. Those results do not make it possible to postulate a causal relationship but do support the effect of vaccination against multiple variants of concern. Non-pharmaceutical measures remain necessary to attain complete epidemic control. Open epidemiological data should be considered to monitor vaccine effectiveness wherever possible.

Serotype Replacement after Introduction of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in 10 Countries, Europe

We evaluated invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) during 8 years of infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs using 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) vaccines in 10 countries in Europe. IPD incidence declined during 2011-2014 but increased during 2015-2018 in all age groups. From the 7-valent PCV period to 2018, IPD incidence declined by 42% in children <5 years of age, 32% in persons 5-64 years of age, and 7% in persons >65 years of age; non-PCV13 serotype incidence increased by 111%, 63%, and 84%, respectively, for these groups. Trends were similar in countries using PCV13 or PCV10, despite different serotype distribution. In 2018, serotypes in the 15-valent and 20-valent PCVs represented one third of cases in children <5 years of age and two thirds of cases in persons >65 years of age. Non-PCV13 serotype increases reduced the overall effect of childhood PCV10/PCV13 programs on IPD. New vaccines providing broader serotype protection are needed.

Invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates from pediatric population in Argentina for the period 2006-2019. Temporal progression of serotypes distribution and antibiotic resistance

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of severe invasive disease associated with high mortality and morbidity worldwide. A total of 2908 pneumococcal isolates were analyzed between 2006 and 2019. Gold standard pneumococcal serotyping (the Neufeld-Quellung reaction) was performed to identify the serotypes associated with infection in children < 5 years in Argentina and agar dilution method was carried out to determine their profiles to 14 antimicrobial agents. In 2012, the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was included in the National Immunization Program. In this work we have analyzed the local epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal diseases before and after the introduction of this vaccine in order to understand the epidemiological relevance and impact of PCV13. During the periods compared in the present study there was a significant increase in the proportion of non-PCV13 serotypes, serogroup 24 (246.7%) and 12F (85.7%), and a significant decrease in PCV13 serotypes, including serotypes 14 (91.2%), 5 (95.6%) and 1 (84.6%) among others. Another observation was that serotypes 3 (7.4%) and 19A (4.9%) still remain among the most frequent serotypes despite being part of the PCV13 formulation. Regarding antimicrobial resistance, in the present study we observed an increase in erythromycin resistance during the period of study mainly associated to serotype 14 in the pre-PCV13 period and to serogroup 24 in the post-PCV13 period, which also was the major NVT serotype associated with antimicrobial resistance and MDR. Serotypes 14, 24A/B/F and 19A were in the first three places among isolates resistant to all the antibiotics tested. Our data highlight the importance of continuous surveillance to assess the impact of pneumococcal vaccines and the use of antibiotics in the dynamic of pneumococcal serotypes.

Real-world impact and effectiveness assessment of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine: a systematic review of study designs and data sources

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine effectiveness and impact studies are typically observational, generating evidence after vaccine launch in a real-world setting. For human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination studies, the variety of data sources and methods used is pronounced. Careful selection of study design, data capture and analytical methods can mitigate potential bias in such studies.

AREAS COVERED

We systematically reviewed the different study designs, methods, and data sources in published evidence (1/2007-3/2020), which assessed the quadrivalent HPV vaccine effectiveness and impact on cervical/cervicovaginal, anal, and oral HPV infections, anogenital warts, lesions in anus, cervix, oropharynx, penis, vagina or vulva, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.

EXPERT OPINION

The rapid growth in access to real-world data allows global monitoring of effects of different public health interventions, including HPV vaccination programs. But the use of data which are not collected or organized to support research also underscore a need to develop robust methodology that provides insight of vaccine effects and consequences of different health policy decisions. To achieve the WHO elimination goal, we foresee a growing need to evaluate HPV vaccination programs globally. A critical appraisal summary of methodology used will provide timely guidance to researchers who want to initiate research activities in various settings.

Impact of MenAfriVac on Meningococcal A Meningitis in Cameroon: A Retrospective Study Using Case-by-Case-Based Surveillance Data from 2009 to 2015

Meningococcal meningitis is a public health concern in Africa. Conjugated vaccine against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenAfriVac) was used in mass vaccination and was proved to have a good impact in the meningitis belt. There is a lack of information about the impact of this intervention in Cameroon after mass vaccination was undertaken. This study aimed at filling the gap in its unknown impact in Cameroon. A retrospective longitudinal study using biological monitoring data of case-by-case-based surveillance for meningitis was obtained from the National Reference Laboratories from 1 January 2009 to 20 September 2015. Immunization coverage data were obtained from Regional Public Health Delegations where immunizations took place. We compared the risks of vaccine serogroup occurrence before and after vaccinations and calculated the global impact using Halloran's formula. Annual cases of meningitis A decreased gradually from 92 in 2011 to 34 in 2012 and then to 1 case in 2013, and since 2014, no cases have been detected. The impact was estimated at 14.48% (p=0.41) in 2012 and then at 98.63% (p < 0.0001) after the end of vaccinations in 2013. This survey confirms the effectiveness of the MenAfriVac vaccine in Cameroon as expected by the WHO. The surveillance must be pursued and enhanced to monitor coming immunizations measures with multivalent conjugated vaccines for this changing threat.

Using observational epidemiology to evaluate COVID-19 vaccines: integrating traditional methods with new data sources and tools

Although clinical trials are necessary for vaccine approval, observational epidemiology will be required to evaluate the long-term effectiveness, safety, and population impacts of newly approved COVID-19 vaccines under real-world field conditions. In this commentary, I argue that a hybrid approach that combines new data sources and tools, including COVID-19 vaccine registries, with traditional epidemiological methods will be needed to evaluate COVID-19 vaccines using observational epidemiology. Wherever possible, primary data collection, active surveillance, and linkage with existing population-based cohorts should be leveraged to supplement secondary data sources and passive surveillance systems. Evidence-informed public health decision making around provincial COVID-19 immunization programs will need to account for potential biases, incomplete or conflicting information, and heterogeneity across subpopulations.

Vaccine impact and effectiveness of meningococcal serogroup ACWY conjugate vaccine implementation in the Netherlands: a nationwide surveillance study

Background

In response to the recent serogroup W invasive meningococcal disease (IMD-W) epidemic in the Netherlands, meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) conjugate vaccination for children aged 14 months was replaced with a MenACWY conjugate vaccination, and a mass campaign targeting individuals aged 14–18 years was executed. We investigated the impact of MenACWY vaccination implementation in 2018–2020 on incidence rates and estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE).

Methods

We extracted IMD cases diagnosed between July 2014 and December 2020 from the national surveillance system. We calculated age group–specific incidence rate ratios by comparing incidence rates before (July 2017–March 2018) and after (July 2019–March 2020) MenACWY vaccination implementation. We estimated VE in vaccine-eligible cases using the screening method.

Results

Overall, the IMD-W incidence rate declined by 61% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 74). It declined by 82% (95% CI, 18 to 96) in the vaccine-eligible age group (individuals aged 15–36 months and 14–18 years) and by 57% (95% CI, 34 to 72) in vaccine-noneligible age groups. VE was 92% (95% CI, –20 to 99.5) in vaccine-eligible toddlers (aged 15–36 months). No IMD-W cases were reported in vaccine-eligible teenagers after the campaign.

Conclusions

The MenACWY vaccination program was effective in preventing IMD-W in the target population. The IMD-W incidence reduction in vaccine-noneligible age groups may be caused by indirect effects of the vaccination program. However, disentangling natural fluctuation from vaccine effect was not possible. Our findings encourage the use of toddler and teenager MenACWY vaccination in national immunization programs.

Predicted Impact of Vaccination and Active Case Finding Measures to Control Epidemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Migrant-Populated Area in Thailand

Background

Thailand experienced the first wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) during March–May 2020 and has been facing the second wave since December 2020. The area facing the greatest impact was Samut Sakhon, a main migrant-receiving province in the country. The Department of Disease Control (DDC) of the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) considered initiating a vaccination strategy in combination with active case finding (ACF) in the epidemic area. The DDC commissioned a research team to predict the impact of various vaccination and ACF policy scenarios in terms of case reduction and deaths averted, which is the objective of this study.

Methods

The design of this study was a secondary analysis of quantitative data. Most of the data were obtained from the DDC, MOPH. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were exercised. A basic reproductive number (R₀) was estimated at 3 from the beginning. Vaccine efficacy against disease transmission was assumed to be 50%. A total of 10,000 people were estimated as an initial population size.

Results

The findings showed that the greater the vaccination coverage, the smaller the size of incident and cumulative cases. Compared with a no-vaccination and no-ACF scenario, the 90%-vaccination coverage combined with 90%-ACF coverage contributed to a reduction of cumulative cases by 33%. The case reduction benefit would be greater when R₀ was smaller (~53% and ~51% when R₀ equated 2 and 1.5, respectively).

Conclusion

This study reaffirmed the idea that a combination of vaccination and ACF measures contributed to favourable results in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, relative to the implementation of only a single measure. The greater the vaccination and ACF coverage, the greater the volume of cases saved. Though we demonstrated the benefit of vaccination strategies in this setting, actual implementation should consider many more policy angles, such as social acceptability, cost-effectiveness and operational feasibility. Further studies that address these topics based on empirical evidence are of great value.

COVID-19 vaccinations are associated with reduced fatality rates: Evidence from cross-country quasi-experiments

BACKGROUND

Scientists have demonstrated the efficacy of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in randomized controlled trials. However, the extent to which reductions in COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) are attributable to mass vaccination in the real world remains unclear. This study evaluated the association of COVID-19 vaccine coverage with CFR on a global scale.

METHODS

The sample was a longitudinal data set of 90 countries over 25 weeks, from the first week of November 2020 to the third week of April 2021. CFR was measured in deaths per 100 COVID-19 confirmed cases; vaccine coverage was defined as the number of people who received at least one vaccine dose per 10 people in the total population. Data were retrieved from open-access databases, including Our World in Data and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. A country-level random effects model was used; a comprehensive set of variables for country characteristics and nonpharmaceutical interventions were included.

RESULTS

A 10% increase in vaccine coverage was associated with a 7.6% reduction in the CFR (95% confidence interval (CI = -12.6 to -2.7%, P = 0.002). This association was stronger in countries with more effective governments (-8.3%; 95% CI = -13.6 to -3.1%, P = 0.002) and higher transport infrastructure quality (-8.1%; 95% CI = -13.3 to -2.9%, P = 0.002). Moreover, the vaccine coverage was associated with a reduced CFR in a dose-dependent manner. When vaccine coverage achieved 0.8 to 1.6, 1.6 to 3.2 and ≥3.2 per 10 people, the CFR reduced by 12.7% (95 CI = -21.8 to -3.6%, P = 0.006), 21.2% (95 CI = -33.9 to -8.5%, P = 0.001) and 31.3% (95 CI = -51.5 to -11.0%, P = 0.002), respectively as compared with no vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide supporting evidence that vaccination is critical to preventing deaths among infected people. Vaccination programmes have yielded significant health benefits in certain countries. However, globally, a large gap remains between observed and achievable fatality reductions. Continuous improvement in vaccine coverage will be critical to transforming efficacious vaccines into desired health outcomes.

Theoretical Framework for Retrospective Studies of the Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines

Observational studies of the effectiveness of vaccines to prevent COVID-19 are needed to inform real-world use. Such studies are now underway amid the ongoing rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. Although traditional case-control and test-negative design studies feature prominently among strategies used to assess vaccine effectiveness, such studies may encounter important threats to validity. Here, we review the theoretical basis for estimation of vaccine direct effects under traditional case-control and test-negative design frameworks, addressing specific natural history parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 relevant to these designs. Bias may be introduced by misclassification of cases and controls, particularly when clinical case criteria include common, nonspecific indicators of COVID-19. When using diagnostic assays with high analytical sensitivity for SARS-CoV-2 detection, individuals testing positive may be counted as cases even if their symptoms are due to other causes. The traditional case-control design may be particularly prone to confounding due to associations of vaccination with healthcare-seeking behavior or risk of infection. The test-negative design reduces but may not eliminate this confounding, for instance, if individuals who receive vaccination seek care or testing for less-severe illness. These circumstances indicate the two study designs cannot be applied naively to datasets gathered through public health surveillance or administrative sources. We suggest practical strategies to reduce bias in vaccine effectiveness estimates at the study design and analysis stages.

Population impact and effectiveness of sequential 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate and monovalent rotavirus vaccine introduction on infant mortality: prospective birth cohort studies from Malawi

Background

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and rotavirus vaccine (RV) are key tools for reducing common causes of infant mortality. However, measurement of population-level mortality impact is lacking from sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated mortality impact and vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV13 introduced in November 2011, with subsequent RV1 roll-out in October 2012, in Malawi.

Methods

We conducted two independent community-based birth cohort studies. Study 1, in northern Malawi (40000population), evaluated population impact using change-point analysis and negative-binomial regression of non-traumatic 14–51-week infant mortality preintroduction (1 January 2004 to 31 September 2011) and postintroduction (1 October 2011 to 1 July 2019), and against three-dose coverage. Study 2, in central Malawi (465 000 population), was recruited from 24 November 2011 to 1 June 2015. In the absence of preintroduction data, individual three-dose versus zero-dose VE was estimated using individual-level Cox survival models. In both cohorts, infants were followed with household visits to ascertain vaccination, socioeconomic and survival status. Verbal autopsies were conducted for deaths.

Results

Study 1 included 20 291 live births and 216 infant deaths. Mortality decreased by 28.6% (95% CI: 15.3 to 39.8) post-PCV13 introduction. A change point was identified in November 2012. Study 2 registered 50 731 live births, with 454 deaths. Infant mortality decreased from 17 to 10/1000 live births during the study period. Adjusted VE was 44.6% overall (95% CI: 23.0 to 59.1) and 48.3% (95% CI: −5.9 to 74.1) against combined acute respiratory infection, meningitis and sepsis-associated mortality.

Conclusion

These data provide population-level evidence of infant mortality reduction following sequential PCV13 and RV1 introduction into an established immunisation programme in Malawi. These data support increasing coverage of vaccine programmes in high-burden settings.

Impact and effectiveness of a conjugate vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease in Finland - a modelling approach

The evaluation of the public health impact of a vaccination program is essential in monitoring its policy relevance. Vaccine impact (VI) is usually assessed in a before-after design, in which data on disease burden without vaccination program is required from a historical reference period. It takes into account the indirect effects and therefore aims to describe the public health performance of the vaccination program in the population. Vaccine effectiveness (VE), measured in parallel settings, quantifies the benefit for an individual of being vaccinated but does not address the indirect effects of a vaccination program. The motivation of this paper is to gain insight into patterns of how VI and VE have manifested under large-scale use of a ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Finnish children. We construct a simple pseudo-dynamic model that mimics typical post-vaccination trends in the incidences of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease in children when the proportion of vaccine-type carriage decreases. In the context of the model, we define the parameters of interest for VI and VE and explore how their expected values evolve over time. For comparison, we demonstrate the application of VI and VE estimation by using register data.

Exposure misclassification bias in the estimation of vaccine effectiveness

In epidemiology, a typical measure of interest is the risk of disease conditional upon exposure. A common source of bias in the estimation of risks and risk ratios is misclassification. Exposure misclassification affects the measurement of exposure, i.e. the variable one conditions on. This article explains how to assess biases under non-differential exposure misclassification when estimating vaccine effectiveness, i.e. the vaccine-induced relative reduction in the risk of disease. The problem can be described in terms of three binary variables: the unobserved true exposure status, the observed but potentially misclassified exposure status, and the observed true disease status. The bias due to exposure misclassification is quantified by the difference between the naïve estimand defined as one minus the risk ratio comparing individuals observed as vaccinated with individuals observed as unvaccinated, and the vaccine effectiveness defined as one minus the risk ratio comparing truly vaccinated with truly unvaccinated. The magnitude of the bias depends on five factors: the risks of disease in the truly vaccinated and the truly unvaccinated, the sensitivity and specificity of exposure measurement, and vaccination coverage. Non-differential exposure misclassification bias is always negative. In practice, if the sensitivity and specificity are known or estimable from external sources, the true risks and the vaccination coverage can be estimated from the observed data and, thus, the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on the observed risks can be corrected for exposure misclassification. When analysing risks under misclassification, careful consideration of conditional probabilities is crucial.

COVID-19 dynamics after a national immunization program in Israel

Studies on the real-life effect of the BNT162b2 vaccine for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention are urgently needed. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the Israeli Ministry of Health collected between 28 August 2020 and 24 February 2021. We studied the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the vaccination campaign, which was initiated on 20 December 2020. To distinguish the possible effects of the vaccination on cases and hospitalizations from other factors, including a third lockdown implemented on 8 January 2021, we performed several comparisons: (1) individuals aged 60 years and older prioritized to receive the vaccine first versus younger age groups; (2) the January lockdown versus the September lockdown; and (3) early-vaccinated versus late-vaccinated cities. A larger and earlier decrease in COVID-19 cases and hospitalization was observed in individuals older than 60 years, followed by younger age groups, by the order of vaccination prioritization. This pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown and was more pronounced in early-vaccinated cities. Our analysis demonstrates the real-life effect of a national vaccination campaign on the pandemic dynamics.

Signals of hope: gauging the impact of a rapid national vaccination campaign

A rapid coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rollout has led Israel to become the country with the highest rate of vaccinated individuals per capita worldwide. Here, we summarize the first signs for the real-world effectiveness and impact of the vaccination campaign.

Preliminary data from Israel demonstrate real-life effectiveness of their COVID-19 vaccination campaign and provide insights that could inform rollout in other countries.

Incidence of varicella and herpes zoster after inclusion of varicella vaccine in national immunization schedule in Turkey: time trend study

The aim of the study was to investigate changes in the incidences of Varicella and Herpes Zoster (HZ) following introduction of single dose Varicella vaccine (VV) in Turkey. Changes in the incidences of varicella and HZ per 100,000 population were compared with pre (2011-2012) and post-VV period (2018-2019) throughout years between years 2011 and 2019 both for children and adults. In children ≤5 years of age, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 290 per 100000 children in 2011 to 24 per 100000 children in 2019 [p = .0001]. Also, for children ≤5 years the mean annual incidence of varicella decreased significantly [326/100000 ±51/100000 vs 23/100000 ± 1/100000; p = .014] between pre- and post-VV period. Moreover, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 43 per 100000 children in 2011 to 26 per 100000 children in 2019 in children age between 6 and 17 years. On the other hand, incidence of varicella in adult population (age >17 years) did not change significantly. Besides, the annual incidences of Herpes Zoster did not change significantly in children age stratas but significant increment observed in adult population. This increment was significant in adult age strata of 18-44 years, but non-significant in age strata of 45-64 years and >64 years. Thus, our study showed a significant reduction in the incidences of Varicella in children age stratas whereas significant increment in the incidence of HZ in adult population after the implementation of VV into the NIP of Turkey.

Incidence of varicella and herpes zoster after inclusion of varicella vaccine in national immunization schedule in Turkey: time trend study

The aim of the study was to investigate changes in the incidences of Varicella and Herpes Zoster (HZ) following introduction of single dose Varicella vaccine (VV) in Turkey. Changes in the incidences of varicella and HZ per 100,000 population were compared with pre (2011-2012) and post-VV period (2018-2019) throughout years between years 2011 and 2019 both for children and adults. In children ≤5 years of age, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 290 per 100000 children in 2011 to 24 per 100000 children in 2019 [p = .0001]. Also, for children ≤5 years the mean annual incidence of varicella decreased significantly [326/100000 ±51/100000 vs 23/100000 ± 1/100000; p = .014] between pre- and post-VV period. Moreover, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 43 per 100000 children in 2011 to 26 per 100000 children in 2019 in children age between 6 and 17 years. On the other hand, incidence of varicella in adult population (age >17 years) did not change significantly. Besides, the annual incidences of Herpes Zoster did not change significantly in children age stratas but significant increment observed in adult population. This increment was significant in adult age strata of 18-44 years, but non-significant in age strata of 45-64 years and >64 years. Thus, our study showed a significant reduction in the incidences of Varicella in children age stratas whereas significant increment in the incidence of HZ in adult population after the implementation of VV into the NIP of Turkey.

Postlicensure herpes zoster vaccine effectiveness: systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Herpes zoster (HZ) and associated complications inflict substantial morbidity and associated healthcare and socioeconomic burdens. Current treatments are not fully effective, especially among the most vulnerable populations. Two HZ vaccines are available and are part of the national immunisation programmes in many countries. This review will evaluate the effectiveness of zoster vaccines against incident HZ and postherpetic neuralgia in adults 50 years and older.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The key information sources that will be searched include MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Cochrane libraries and CINAHL. This search will consider postlicensure observational studies published in all languages between 2006 and 2020 that assessed the effectiveness of HZ/zoster vaccines in adults 50 years and older. The identification of studies will be complemented with the search of reference lists and citations, and contact with authors of papers to request missing or additional data, where required. Following the search, all identified citations will be collated, and duplicates will be removed. Titles and abstracts will then be screened by two independent reviewers for assessment against the inclusion criteria for the review. Selected studies will follow the process of critical appraisal, data extraction and data synthesis. Statistical analyses will be performed using a random-effect model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval is not required, as primary data will not be collected. The review will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

Impact of Meningococcal B Vaccine on Invasive Meningococcal Disease in Adolescents

Background

From 2017, a statewide cluster randomized trial was conducted in South Australia to assess the impact of the meningococcal B vaccine 4CMenB on pharyngeal Neisseria meningitidis carriage in adolescents. Senior schools were randomized to receive the vaccine in 2017 (intervention) or 2018 (control). In this study we report the vaccine impact of 4CMenB on serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in 16- to 19-year-old adolescents in South Australia.

Methods

This observational time series analysis of serogroup B IMD cases compares the 14 years prior to the commencement of the trial (2003–2016) with the 2 years following 4CMenB vaccination of the 2017 adolescent cohort.

Results

Approximately 62% of year 10 and 11 students (15–16 years old) in South Australia enrolled in the trial. A total of 30 522 year 10–12 students received at least 1 dose of 4CMenB. The number of serogroup B IMD cases in 16- to 19-year old adolescents in South Australia increased on average by 10% per year from 2003 to 2016 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%–15%, P &lt; .001), peaking with 10 cases in 2015. Serogroup B IMD cases reduced to 5 in 2017–2018 and 1 in 2018–2019, below the expected numbers of 9.9 (95% prediction interval [PI], 3.9–17.5) and 10.9 (95% PI, 4.4–19.1), respectively. This translated to an overall reduction in the number of serogroup B IMD cases of 71% (95% CI, 15%–90%, P = .02). There were no serogroup B IMD cases in vaccinated adolescents.

Conclusions

Vaccinating adolescents with 4CMenB was associated with a reduction in group B meningococcal disease in South Australia.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT03089086.

Causal inference concepts applied to three observational studies in the context of vaccine development: from theory to practice

Background

Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard to evaluate causal associations, whereas assessing causality in observational studies is challenging.

Methods

We applied Hill’s Criteria, counterfactual reasoning, and causal diagrams to evaluate a potentially causal relationship between an exposure and outcome in three published observational studies: a) one burden of disease cohort study to determine the association between type 2 diabetes and herpes zoster, b) one post-authorization safety cohort study to assess the effect of AS04-HPV-16/18 vaccine on the risk of autoimmune diseases, and c) one matched case-control study to evaluate the effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine in preventing hospitalization for rotavirus gastroenteritis.

Results

Among the 9 Hill’s criteria, 8 (Strength, Consistency, Specificity, Temporality, Plausibility, Coherence, Analogy, Experiment) were considered as met for study c, 3 (Temporality, Plausibility, Coherence) for study a, and 2 (Temporary, Plausibility) for study b. For counterfactual reasoning criteria, exchangeability, the most critical assumption, could not be tested. Using these tools, we concluded that causality was very unlikely in study b, unlikely in study a, and very likely in study c. Directed acyclic graphs provided complementary visual structures that identified confounding bias and helped determine the most accurate design and analysis to assess causality.

Conclusions

Based on our assessment we found causal Hill’s criteria and counterfactual thinking valuable in determining some level of certainty about causality in observational studies. Application of causal inference frameworks should be considered in designing and interpreting observational studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01220-1.

What defines an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine? A review of the challenges assessing the clinical efficacy of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2

The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused more than 1 million deaths in the first 6 months of the pandemic and huge economic and social upheaval internationally. An efficacious vaccine is essential to prevent further morbidity and mortality. Although some countries might deploy COVID-19 vaccines on the strength of safety and immunogenicity data alone, the goal of vaccine development is to gain direct evidence of vaccine efficacy in protecting humans against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 so that manufacture of efficacious vaccines can be selectively upscaled. A candidate vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 might act against infection, disease, or transmission, and a vaccine capable of reducing any of these elements could contribute to disease control. However, the most important efficacy endpoint, protection against severe disease and death, is difficult to assess in phase 3 clinical trials. In this Review, we explore the challenges in assessing the efficacy of candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, discuss the caveats needed to interpret reported efficacy endpoints, and provide insight into answering the seemingly simple question, "Does this COVID-19 vaccine work?"

Systematic literature review of the impact and effectiveness of monovalent meningococcal C conjugated vaccines when used in routine immunization programs

BACKGROUND

Monovalent meningococcal C conjugate vaccine (MCCV) was introduced into the routine immunization program in many countries in Europe and worldwide following the emergence of meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) in the late 1990s. This systematic literature review summarizes the immediate and long-term impact and effectiveness of the different MCCV vaccination schedules and strategies employed.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search for peer-reviewed, scientific publications in the databases of MEDLINE (via PubMed), LILACS, and SCIELO. We included studies from countries where MCCV have been introduced in routine vaccination programs and studies providing the impact and effectiveness of MCCV published between 1st January 2001 and 31st October 2017.

RESULTS

Forty studies were included in the review; 30 studies reporting impact and 17 reporting effectiveness covering 9 countries (UK, Spain, Italy, Canada, Brazil, Australia, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands). Following MCCV introduction, significant and immediate reduction of MenC incidence was consistently observed in vaccine eligible ages in all countries with high vaccine uptake. The reduction in non-vaccine eligible ages (especially population > 65 years) through herd protection was generally observed 3-4 years following introduction. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was mostly assessed through screening methods and ranged from 38 to 100%. The VE was generally highest during the first year after vaccination and waned over time. The VE was better maintained in countries employing catch-up campaigns in older children and adolescents, compared to routine infant only schedules.

CONCLUSIONS

MCCV were highly effective, showing a substantial and sustained decrease in MenC invasive meningococcal disease. The epidemiology of meningococcal disease is in constant transition, and some vaccination programs now include adolescents and higher valent vaccines due to the recent increase in cases caused by serogroups not covered by MCCV. Continuous monitoring of meningococcal disease is essential to understand disease evolution in the setting of different vaccination programs.

Benefit-Risk Assessment of Vaccines. Part II: Proposal Towards Consolidated Standards of Reporting Quantitative Benefit-Risk Models Applied to Vaccines (BRIVAC)

INTRODUCTION

Quantitative benefit-risk models (qBRm) applied to vaccines are increasingly used by public health authorities and pharmaceutical companies as an important tool to help decision makers with supporting benefit-risk assessment (BRA). However, many publications on vaccine qBRm provide insufficient details on the methodological approaches used. Incomplete and/or inadequate qBRm reporting may affect result interpretation and confidence in BRA, highlighting a need for the development of standard reporting guidance.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to provide an operational checklist for improved reporting of vaccine qBRm.

METHODS

The consolidated standards of reporting quantitative Benefit-RIsk models applied to VACcines (BRIVAC) were designed as a checklist of key information to report in qBRm scientific publications regarding the assessed vaccines, the methodological considerations and the results and their interpretation.

RESULTS

In total, 22 items and accompanying definitions, recommendations, explanations and examples were provided and divided into six main sections corresponding to the classic subdivisions of a scientific publication: title and abstract (items 1-2), introduction (items 3-4), methods (items 5-15), results (items 16-17), discussion (items 18-20) and other (items 21-22).

CONCLUSIONS

The BRIVAC checklist is the first initiative providing an operational checklist for improved reporting of qBRm applied to vaccines in scientific articles. It is intended to assist authors, peer-reviewers, editors and readers in their critical appraisal. Future initiatives are needed to provide methodological guidance to perform qBRm while taking into account the vaccine specificities.

Spatio-temporal impact of self-financed rotavirus vaccination on rotavirus and acute gastroenteritis hospitalisations in the Valencia region, Spain

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown a substantial impact of Rotavirus (RV) vaccination on the burden of RV and all-cause acute gastroenteritis (AGE). However, the results of most impact studies could be confused by a dynamic and complex space-time process. Therefore, there is a need to analyse the impact of RV vaccination on RV and AGE hospitalisations in a space-time framework to detect geographical-time patterns while avoiding the potential confusion caused by population inequalities in the impact estimations.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based study using real-world data from the Valencia Region was performed among children aged less than 3 years old in the period 2005-2016. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was constructed to analyse RV and AGE hospitalisations and to estimate the vaccination impact measured in averted hospitalisations.

RESULTS

We found important spatio-temporal patterns in RV and AGE hospitalisations, RV vaccination coverage and in their associated adverted hospitalisations. Overall, ~ 1866 hospital admissions for RV were averted by RV vaccination during 2007-2016. Despite the low-medium vaccine coverage (~ 50%) in 2015-2016, relevant 36 and 20% reductions were estimated in RV and AGE hospitalisations respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of the RV vaccines has substantially reduced the number of RV hospitalisations, averting ~ 1866 admissions during 2007-2016 which were space and time dependent. This study improves the methodologies commonly used to estimate the RV vaccine impact and their interpretation.

Influenza A virus vaccine research conducted in swine from 1990 to May 2018: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Influenza A viruses of swine (IAV-S) are a global zoonotic and economic concern. Primary control is through vaccination yet a formal evidence map summarizing vaccine research conducted in pigs is not available.

OBJECTIVE

Ten characteristics of English language primary IAV-S vaccine research, conducted at the level of the pig or higher, were charted to identify research gaps, topics for systematic review, and coverage across different publication types.

DESIGN

Six online databases and grey literature were searched, without geographic, population, or study type restrictions, and abstracts screened independently and in duplicate for relevant research published between 1990 and May 2018. Full text data was charted by a single reviewer.

RESULTS

Over 11,000 unique citations were screened, identifying 376 for charting, including 175 proceedings from 60 conferences, and 170 journal articles from 51 journals. Reported outcomes were heterogeneous with measures of immunity (86%, n = 323) and virus detection (65%, n = 246) reported far more than production metrics (9%, n = 32). Study of transmissibility under conditions of natural exposure (n = 7), use of mathematical modelling (n = 11), and autogenous vaccine research reported in journals (n = 7), was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Most research used challenge trials (n = 219) and may have poor field relevance or suitability for systematic review if the purpose is to inform clinical decisions. Literature on vaccinated breeding herds (n = 89) and weaned pigs (n = 136) is potentially sufficient for systematic review. Research under field conditions is limited, disproportionately reported in conference proceedings versus journal articles, and may be insufficient to support systematic review.

Landscape analysis of pharmacovigilance and related practices among 34 vaccine manufacturers' from emerging countries

Developing Countries' Vaccine Manufacturers Network was tasked with the strategic goal of seeking solutions, jointly with manufacturers, for enabling the stable, sustainable supply of quality vaccines to developing countries to increase global immunization. As vaccines are given to millions of healthy people, including children, to prevent life-threatening diseases, vaccines must meet high safety standards. Vaccine safety monitoring is of paramount importance to maintain trust in vaccination programs globally. Once a vaccine is licensed and recommended for use, its safety and effectiveness must be monitored during its whole lifecycle, as the safety profile and protective effectiveness may change over time. A well-established safety governance model across the organization with underlying processes for data collection, signal and risk management and communication is essential. A "fit for purpose" pharmacovigilance system may vary as it depends on several factors. However, all vaccine manufacturers strive to achieve a pharmacovigilance system satisfying Good Pharmacovigilance Practices, in compliance with national, international and supranational requirements, as applicable. A landscape analysis, using a questionnaire covering nine pharmacovigilance key areas related to an effective system, was conducted to understand the existing pharmacovigilance structures, practices and expertise of vaccine manufacturers from emerging countries, on an institutional level. 34 of the 43 contacted manufacturers participated voluntarily. The survey results show that all respondents have established vaccine safety capacity, mainly in collecting and handling adverse events following immunization and implementing standardized processes; the survey also shows differences in the maturity of the manufacturers' pharmacovigilance system, Quality Management System, signal and risk management, and safety governance. The analysis provides a tool for manufacturers to gain a "bird's-eye" view of the structure of pharmacovigilance key areas and the operational dimensions covered by each area, to benchmarking against international expectations, serving as a basis to further strengthen pharmacovigilance systems, to support accelerated global vaccine supply.

Varicella vaccine dose depended effectiveness and waning among preschool children in Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination was introduced in July 2014 with a two-dose schedule but the vaccines had been available in the private market since 1996. With data from varicella notification and surveys on immunization coverage, we used the screening method to estimate dose-specific varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE) among preschool children in Hong Kong before universal vaccination. We estimated the VE of one- and two-dose varicella vaccination against all notified varicella as 69.4% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 69.5-71.2) and 93.4% (95% CI 91.7-94.7), respectively. We found that VE did not decrease with time since receipt. Varicella vaccine was more effective against complications (85.4% [95% CI 48.8-95.8] for one dose and 100% [95% CI -Inf to 100] for two doses) and against hospital admission (75.2% [95% CI 53.4-86.8] for one dose and 93.1% [95% CI 47.1-99.1] for two doses). Lower protection of one-dose varicella vaccine resulted in breakthrough varicella. Under universal vaccination, second-dose varicella vaccine (given as combined measles, mumps, rubella and varicella vaccine) was first scheduled for children when they reach primary one (about 6 years of age) and was recently advanced to 18 months of age. Shortening the interval between the first dose and second dose of varicella vaccination should reduce breakthrough varicella and outbreaks in preschool.

How to assess for the full economic value of vaccines? From past to present, drawing lessons for the future

Background:Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is the economic analysis method most commonly applied today in the context of replacing one treatment with a new one in a developed healthcare system to improve efficiency. CEA is often requested by local healthcare decision-makers to grant reimbursement. New preventative interventions, such as new vaccines, may however have much wider benefits inside and outside healthcare, when compared with treatment. These additional benefits include externalities on indirect clinical impact, reallocation of specific healthcare resources, improved quality of care, better productivity, better disease control, better fiscal revenues, and others. But these effects are sometimes difficult to integrate into a meaningful CEA result. They may appear as specific benefits for specific stakeholders, other than the stakeholders in healthcare. Objective: Based on a historical view about the application of economic assessments for vaccines our objective has been to make the inventory of who was/is interested in knowing the economic value of vaccines, in what those different stakeholders are likely to see the benefit from their perspective and how  were/are we able to measure those benefits and to report them well. Results: The historical view disclosed a limited interest in the economic assessment of vaccines at start, more than 50 years ago, that was comparable to the assessment of looking for more efficiency in new industries through optimization exercises. Today, we are exposed to a very rich panoply of different stakeholders (n= 16). They have their specific interest in many different facets of the vaccine benefit of which some are well known in the conventional economic analysis (n=9), but most outcomes are hidden and not enough evaluated and reported (n=26). Meanwhile we discovered that many different methods of evaluation have been explored to facilitate the measurement and reporting of the benefits (n=18). Conclusion: Our recommendation for future economic evaluations of new vaccines is therefore to find the right combination among the three entities of stakeholder type selection, outcome measure of interest for each stakeholder, and the right method to apply. We present at the end examples that illustrate how successful this approach can be.

Assessing sociodemographic differences in human papillomavirus vaccine impact studies in the United States: a systematic review using narrative synthesis

OBJECTIVES

Sociodemographic disparities in the incidence and mortality of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated conditions have been well documented in the pre-HPV vaccine era. It is still unknown if the introduction of routine vaccination has been effective in reducing these prevaccine era inequalities. The purpose of this review was to determine the utilization of sociodemographic variables to assess for disparities in population-level HPV vaccine impact research and to evaluate the current evidence for disparities in the reduction of HPV-associated conditions after vaccine introduction in the United States (US).

STUDY DESIGN

A systematic review of the literature from January 2007 through March 2018 was carried out to identify studies evaluating the impact HPV vaccines have had on the rates of HPV infection, genital warts, and cervical dysplasia (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 1+) in the US. An in-depth review was then performed to synthesize these data and to assess the way prior studies have reported and evaluated for potential disparities in the vaccine's impact within various racial, ethnic, and/or socio-economic subgroups of the population.

METHODS

Vaccine impact studies measure the change in the population-level burden of disease prelicensure versus postlicensure of the vaccine. We systematically searched PubMed/Medline and Embase, combining search terms related to the HPV vaccine, sentinel surveillance, and HPV-associated conditions. Eligible studies were those with population-level, postvaccine introduction data that were conducted in the US. Finally, a cited reference search was conducted for all included articles using the Web of Science platform that accesses three major citation indexes: Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, and Arts and Humanities Citation Index. This allowed us to screen not only the articles that were cited by our final collection of studies but also the articles that used our selected studies as one of their references. The study protocol is registered in PROSPERO (#CRD42018107579).

RESULTS

Overall, 23 of the 4139 references retrieved assessed the population-level impact of HPV vaccines between January 1, 2007, and March 29, 2018. Among these, 13 (57%) reported sociodemographic data. Only two articles reported stratified results by sociodemographic factors, thereby allowing assessment for potential disparate impact. One of these studies described differences in the impact of the vaccine by race, ethnicity, and income.

CONCLUSION

Although approximately half of the studies that assessed the impact of the HPV vaccine measured sociodemographic characteristics, few presented results in a way that allowed for the identification of potential differences in impact between the relevant subgroups of the population. Determining to what extent, if any, vaccines are reducing known sociodemographic disparities is an important public health priority and an essential step in developing immunization strategies that are beneficial for all.