Discharge-based QMRA for estimation of public health risks from exposure to stormwater-borne pathogens in recreational waters in the United States

Quantitative fecal source characterization of urban municipal storm sewer system outfall 'wet' and 'dry' weather discharges

Urban areas are built environments containing substantial amounts of impervious surfaces (e.g., streets, sidewalks, roof tops). These areas often include elaborately engineered drainage networks designed to collect, transport, and discharge untreated stormwater into local surface waters. When left uncontrolled, these discharges may contain unsafe levels of fecal waste from sources such as sanitary sewage and wildlife even under dry weather conditions. This study evaluates paired measurements of host-associated genetic markers (log10 copies per reaction) indicative of human (HF183/BacR287 and HumM2), ruminant (Rum2Bac), canine (DG3), and avian (GFD) fecal sources, 12-hour cumulative precipitation (mm), four catchment land use metrics determined by global information system (GIS) mapping, and Escherichia coli (MPN/100 ml) from seven municipal separate storm sewer system outfall locations situated at the southern portion of the Anacostia River Watershed (District of Columbia, U.S.A.). A total of 231 discharge samples were collected twice per month (n = 24 sampling days) and after rain events (n = 9) over a 13-month period. Approximately 50 % of samples (n = 116) were impaired, exceeding the local E. coli single sample maximum of 2.613 log10 MPN/100 ml. Genetic quality controls indicated the absence of amplification inhibition in 97.8 % of samples, however 14.7 % (n = 34) samples showed bias in DNA recovery. Of eligible samples, quantifiable levels were observed for avian (84.1 %), human (57.4 % for HF183/BacR287 and 40 % for HumM2), canine (46.7 %), and ruminant (15.9 %) host-associated genetic markers. Potential links between paired measurements are explored with a recently developed Bayesian qPCR censored data analysis approach. Findings indicate that human, pet, and urban wildlife all contribute to storm outfall discharge water quality in the District of Columbia, but pollutant source contributions vary based on 'wet' and 'dry' conditions and catchment land use, demonstrating that genetic-based fecal source identification methods combined with GIS land use mapping can complement routine E. coli monitoring to improve stormwater management in urban areas.

Two risk assessments: Evaluating the use of indicator HF183 Bacteroides versus pathogen measurements for modelling recreational illness risks in an urban watershed

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of HF183 Bacteroides for estimating pathogen exposures during recreational water activities. We compared the use of Bacteroides-based exposure assessment to exposure assessment that relied on pathogen measurements. We considered two types of recreational water sites: those impacted by combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and those not impacted by CSOs. Samples from CSO-impacted and non-CSO-impacted urban creeks were analysed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for HF183 Bacteroides and eight human gastrointestinal pathogens. Exposure assessment was conducted two ways for each type of site (CSO-impacted vs. non-CSO impacted): 1) by estimating pathogen concentrations from HF183 Bacteroides concentrations using published ratios of HF183 to pathogens in sewage and 2) by estimating pathogen concentrations from qPCR measurements. QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) was then conducted for swimming, wading, and fishing exposures. Overall, mean risk estimates varied from 0.27 to 53 illnesses per 1,000 recreators depending on exposure assessment, site, activity, and norovirus dose-response model. HF183-based exposure assessment identified CSO-impacted sites as higher risk, and the recommended HF183 risk-based threshold of 525 genomic copies per 100 mL was generally protective of public health at the CSO-impacted sites but was not as protective at the non-CSO-impacted sites. In the context of our urban watershed, HF183-based exposure assessment over- and under-estimated risk relative to exposure assessment based on pathogen measurements, and the etiology of predicted pathogen-specific illnesses differed significantly. Across all sites, the HF183 model overestimated risk for norovirus, adenovirus, and Campylobacter jejuni, and it underestimated risk for E. coli and Cryptosporidium. To our knowledge, this study is the first to directly compare health risk estimates using HF183 and empirical pathogen measurements from the same waterways. Our work highlights the importance of site-specific hazard identification and exposure assessment to decide whether HF183 is applicable for monitoring risk.

Development and evaluation of an intensive short course: the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Interdisciplinary Instructional Institute (QMRA III)

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a growing interdisciplinary field addressing exposures to microbial pathogens and infectious disease processes. Risk science is inherently interdisciplinary, but few of the contributing disciplinary programs offer courses and training specifically in QMRA. To develop multidisciplinary training in QMRA, an annual 10-day long intensive workshop was conducted from 2015 to 2019-the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Interdisciplinary Instructional Institute (QMRA III). National leaders in the fields of public health, engineering, microbiology, epidemiology, communications, public policy, and QMRA served as instructors and mentors over the course of the program. To provide cross-training, multidisciplinary teams of 5-6 trainees were created from the approximately 30 trainees each year. A formal assessment of the program was performed based on observations and surveys containing Likert-type scales and open-ended prompts. In addition, a longitudinal alumni survey was also disseminated to facilitate the future redevelopment of QMRA institutes and determine the impact of the program. Across all years, trainees experienced statistically significant increases (P < 0.05) in their perceptions of their QMRA abilities (e.g., use of specific computer programs) and knowledge of QMRA constructs (e.g., risk management). In addition, 12 publications, three conference presentations, and two research grants were derived from the QMRA III institute projects or tangential research. The success of QMRA III indicates that a short course format can effectively address many multidisciplinary training needs. Key features of QMRA III, including the inter-disciplinary training approach, hands-on exercises, real-world institute projects, and interaction through a mentoring process, were vital for training multidisciplinary teams housing multiple forms of expertise. Future QMRA institutes are being redeveloped to leverage hybrid learning formats that can further the multidisciplinary training and mentoring objectives.

Assessing environmental exposure to viruses in wastewater treatment plant and swine farm scenarios with next-generation sequencing and occupational risk approaches

Occupational exposure to pathogens can pose health risks. This study investigates the viral exposure of workers in a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a swine farm by analyzing aerosol and surfaces samples. Viral contamination was evaluated using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays, and target enrichment sequencing (TES) was performed to identify the vertebrate viruses to which workers might be exposed. Additionally, Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was conducted to estimate the occupational risk associated with viral exposure for WWTP workers, choosing Human Adenovirus (HAdV) as the reference pathogen. In the swine farm, QMRA was performed as an extrapolation, considering a hypothetical zoonotic virus with characteristics similar to Porcine Adenovirus (PAdV). The modelled exposure routes included aerosol inhalation and oral ingestion through contaminated surfaces and hand-to-mouth contact. HAdV and PAdV were widespread viruses in the WWTP and the swine farm, respectively, by qPCR assays. TES identified human and other vertebrate viruses WWTP samples, including viruses from families such as Adenoviridae, Circoviridae, Orthoherpesviridae, Papillomaviridae, and Parvoviridae. In the swine farm, most of the identified vertebrate viruses were porcine viruses belonging to Adenoviridae, Astroviridae, Circoviridae, Herpesviridae, Papillomaviridae, Parvoviridae, Picornaviridae, and Retroviridae. QMRA analysis revealed noteworthy risks of viral infections for WWTP workers if safety measures are not taken. The probability of illness due to HAdV inhalation was higher in summer compared to winter, while the greatest risk from oral ingestion was observed in workspaces during winter. Swine farm QMRA simulation suggested a potential occupational risk in the case of exposure to a hypothetical zoonotic virus. This study provides valuable insights into WWTP and swine farm worker's occupational exposure to human and other vertebrate viruses. QMRA and NGS analyses conducted in this study will assist managers in making evidence-based decisions, facilitating the implementation of protection measures, and risk mitigation practices for workers.

Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need for more rapid and routine application of modeling approaches such as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for protecting public health. QMRA is a transdisciplinary science dedicated to understanding, predicting, and mitigating infectious disease risks. To better equip QMRA researchers to inform policy and public health management, an Advances in Research for QMRA workshop was held to synthesize a path forward for QMRA research. We summarize insights from 41 QMRA researchers and experts to clarify the role of QMRA in risk analysis by (1) identifying key research needs, (2) highlighting emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describing data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key identified research priorities included using molecular tools in QMRA, advancing dose-response methodology, addressing needed exposure assessments, harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA, unifying a divide between disease transmission and QMRA models, calibrating and/or validating QMRA models, modeling co-exposures and mixtures, and standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout the source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: develop a community of research and practice, integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, increase QMRA translation and impacts, build communication strategies, and encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies.

Human viral pathogens in the wastewater-source water-drinking water continuum: Evidence, health risks, and lessons for future outbreaks in low-income settings

Human viral pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2 continue to attract public and research attention due to their disruption of society, global health, and the economy. Several earlier reviews have investigated the occurrence and fate of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, and the potential to use such data in wastewater-based epidemiology. However, comprehensive reviews tracking SARS-CoV-2 and other viral pathogens in the wastewater-water-drinking water continuum and the associated risk assessment are still lacking. Therefore, to address this gap, the present paper makes the following contributions: (1) critically examines the early empirical results to highlight the occurrence and stability of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater-source water-drinking water continuum, (2) discusses the anthropogenic and hydro(geo)logical processes controlling the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater-source water-drinking water continuum, (3) discusses the risky behaviour, drivers and high-risk settings in the wastewater-source water-drinking water continuum, (4) uses the available empirical data on SARS-CoV-2 occurrence in the wastewater-source water-drinking water continuum to discuss human health risks from multiple exposure pathways, gendered aspects of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via shared on-site sanitation systems, and (5) develops and risk mitigation strategy based on the available empirical evidence and quantitative human risk assessment data. Finally, it presents a comprehensive research agenda on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 to guide the mitigation of future similar outbreaks in low-income settings.

Assessing sustainability of microalgae-based wastewater treatment: Environmental considerations and impacts on human health

An integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) were conducted to assess microalgae-mediated wastewater disinfection (M-WWD). M-WWD was achieved by replacing ultraviolet disinfection with a microalgal open raceway pond in an existing sewage treatment plant (STP) in India. Regarding impacts on human health, both M-WWD and STP yielded comparable life cycle impacts, around 0.01 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per person per year. However, QMRA impacts for M-WWD (0.053 DALYs per person per year) were slightly lower than that for STP while considering exposure to E. coli O157:H7 and adenovirus. Additionally, a comparative LCA resolved the dilemma about the appropriate utilization of microalgal biomass. Among biodiesel, biocrude, and biogas production, the lowest impacts of 0.015 DALYs per person per year were obtained for biocrude for 1 m3 water treated by M-WWD. Electricity consumption in microalgae cultivation was a major environmental hotspot. Overall, M-WWD, followed by production of microalgal biocrude, emerged as a sustainable alternative from environmental and public health perspectives. These findings set the foundation for pilot-scale M-WWD system development, testing, and economic evaluation. Such comprehensive investigations, encompassing LCA, QMRA, and resource recovery scenarios, offer crucial insights for stakeholders and decision-makers in wastewater treatment and environmental management.

Temperature and particles interact to affect human norovirus and MS2 persistence in surface water

Modeling the fate and transport of viruses and their genetic material in surface water is necessary to assess risks associated with contaminated surface waters and to inform environmental surveillance efforts. Temperature has been identified as a key variable affecting virus persistence in surface waters, but the effects of the presence of biological and inert particles and of their interaction with temperature have not been well characterized. We assessed these effects on the persistence of human norovirus (HuNoV) genotype II.4 purified from stool and MS2 in surface water. Raw or filter-sterilized creek water microcosms were inoculated and incubated in the dark at 10 °C, 15 °C, and 20 °C. HuNoV (i.e., genome segments and intact capsids) and MS2 (i.e., infectious MS2, genome segments, and intact capsids) concentrations were followed over 36 days. The range in positive, significant first-order decay rate constants for HuNoV in this study was 0.14 to 0.69 day-1 compared with 0.026 to 0.71 day-1 for that of MS2. Decay rate constants for HuNoV genome segments and infectious MS2 were largest in creek water that included biological and inert particles and incubated at higher temperatures. In addition, for HuNoV and MS2 incubated in raw or filter-sterilized creek water at 15 °C, capsid damage was not identified as a dominant inactivation mechanism. Environmental processes and events that affect surface water biological and inert particles, temperature, or both could lead to variable virus decay rate constants. Incorporating the effects of particles, temperature, and their interaction could enhance models of virus fate and transport in surface water.

Microbiological water quality and derived health risks from exposure to ornamental water fountains in the city of Hannover

Ornamental fountains are attractive urban infrastructures helping cities to cope with global warming, as water sprays have great cooling effects due to evaporative properties; however, exposure to microbiologically impaired water from ornamental fountains during recreational activities may result in adverse health outcomes for the exposed population. This study assesses the microbial water quality of four ornamental water fountains (Blätterbrunnen, Körtingbrunnen, Klaus-Bahlsen-Brunnen, and Marstallbrunnen) and performs a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for children using Escherichia coli, Enterococci, and Salmonella to quantify the probability of gastrointestinal illnesses and Pseudomonas aeruginosa to quantify the risk of dermal infections. Samples were collected fortnightly in two campaigns in 2020 and 2021 and processed to determine bacterial concentrations. Data on exposure time were obtained during field observations on the selected fountains; a total of 499 people were observed of which 30% were children. Mean bacterial concentrations ranged from 1.6 × 101 to 6.1 × 102 most probable number (MPN)/100 mL for E. coli, 1.2 × 101 -1.2 × 103  MPN/100 mL for Enterococci, 8.6 × 103 -3.1 × 105  CFU/100 mL for Salmonella, and 2.5 × 103 -3.2 × 104  MPN/100 mL for P. aeruginosa. The results of the QMRA study showed that the USEPA illness rate of 36 NEEAR-gastrointestinal illnesses/1000 was exceeded for Enterococci at the Körtingbrunnen, Klaus-Bahlsen-Brunnen, and Marstallbrunnen fountains and for Salmonella and P. aeruginosa at the Körtingbrunnen fountain, suggesting that exposure to microbiologically contaminated water from ornamental fountains may pose a health risk to children. The scenario analysis shows the importance of keeping low bacterial concentrations in ornamental fountains so that the risk of illness/infection to children does not exceed the USEPA illness rate benchmark.

Comparison of viral concentration techniques for native fecal indicators and pathogens from wastewater

Viral pathogens are typically dilute in environmental waters, necessitating a concentration step prior to subsequent quantification or analysis. Historically, studies on viral concentration efficiency have been done by spiking known viruses into the sample; however, spike-in controls may not have the same behavior as "native" viruses exposed to environmental conditions. In this study, four concentration methods, including polyethylene glycol precipitation (PEG), skimmed milk flocculation (SMF), pH drop followed by filtration through a 0.45 μm filter (pH), and centrifugation using an Amicon filter (Amicon), were evaluated to concentrate native viral targets in wastewater. Viral targets included both indicators (crAssphage and pepper mild mottle virus) and pathogens (adenovirus, norovirus GII, human polyomavirus, and SARS-CoV-2) in addition to a bacterial marker (HF183). A non-native spike-in control was also added to compare native and spike-in recoveries. Recovery varied widely across targets and methods, ranging from 0.1 to 39.3 %. The Amicon method was the most broadly effective concentration for recovery efficiency. For the lowest-titer target, the PEG method resulted in the lowest number of non-detections, with 96.7 % positive detections for SARS-CoV-2, compared to 66.7 %, 80 %, and 76.7 % positive detections for SMF, pH, and Amicon, respectively. The non-native spike-ins chosen were only representative of a few native recovery trends, varying by both target and concentration method, and consistently under or over-estimated recovery. Overall, this study suggests the utility of including native targets in viral concentration evaluation and determining the efficiency of concentration methods for a specific target of interest.

Microbial indicators in municipal solid waste compost and their fate after land application of compost

Despite the extensive agricultural use of municipal solid waste (MSW) compost, there is little information about microbial characteristics of the MSW compost and fate of microorganisms following land application. This study was designed to determine the microbial quality and germination index (GI) of the MSW compost as well as fate of indicator microorganisms after application of MSW compost. The results showed a high fraction of samples are immature (GI < 80). In 27% and 16% of samples fecal coliforms and Salmonella were detected in a range exceeding the recommended value for unrestricted application of compost, respectively. HAdV was also detected in 62% of samples. Fecal enterococci were detected with relatively high concentrations in all samples and showed higher survival rate than other indicators in land-applied MSW compost. The results showed that climate condition significantly contributed to the decline of indicator bacteria in land-applied compost. The results highlight the need for further quality monitoring of compost to ensure that its application does not lead to environmental or human health problems. Furthermore, because of the high concentrations and high survival rate of enterococci in compost samples, they can be specifically proposed as an indicator microorganism for MSW compost quality monitoring.

Enteric pathogen reduction targets for onsite non-potable water systems: A critical evaluation

Onsite non-potable water systems (ONWS) collect and treat local source waters for non-potable end uses such as toilet flushing and irrigation. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been used to set pathogen log10-reduction targets (LRTs) for ONWS to achieve the risk benchmark of 10-4 infections per person per year (ppy) in a series of two efforts completed in 2017 and 2021. In this work, we compare and synthesize the ONWS LRT efforts to inform the selection of pathogen LRTs. For onsite wastewater, greywater, and stormwater, LRTs for human enteric viruses and parasitic protozoa were within 1.5-log10 units between 2017 and 2021 efforts, despite differences in approaches used to characterize pathogens in these waters. For onsite wastewater and greywater, the 2017 effort used an epidemiology-based model to simulate pathogen concentrations contributed exclusively from onsite waste and selected Norovirus as the viral reference pathogen; the 2021 effort used municipal wastewater pathogen data and cultivable adenoviruses as the reference viral pathogen. Across source waters, the greatest differences occurred for viruses in stormwater, given the newly available municipal wastewater characterizations used for modeling sewage contributions in 2021 and the different selection of reference pathogens (Norovirus vs. adenoviruses). The roof runoff LRTs support the need for protozoa treatment, but these remain difficult to characterize due to the pathogen variability in roof runoff across space and time. The comparison highlights adaptability of the risk-based approach, allowing for updated LRTs as site specific or improved information becomes available. Future research efforts should focus on data collection of onsite water sources.

Risk of Gastroenteritis from Swimming at a Wastewater-Impacted Tropical Beach Varies across Localized Scales

Population growth and changing climate are expected to increase human exposure to pathogens in tropical coastal waters. We examined microbiological water quality in three rivers within 2.3 km of each other that impact a Costa Rican beach and in the ocean outside their plumes during the rainy and dry seasons. We performed quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to predict the risk of gastroenteritis associated with swimming and the amount of pathogen reduction needed to achieve safe conditions. Recreational water quality criteria based on enterococci were exceeded in >90% of river samples but in only 13% of ocean samples. Multivariate analysis grouped microbial observations by subwatershed and season in river samples but only by subwatershed in the ocean. The modeled median risk from all pathogens in river samples was between 0.345 and 0.577, 10-fold above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) benchmark of 0.036 (36 illnesses/1,000 swimmers). Norovirus genogroup I (NoVGI) contributed most to risk, but adenoviruses raised risk above the threshold in the two most urban subwatersheds. The risk was greater in the dry compared to the rainy season, due largely to the greater frequency of NoVGI detection (100% versus 41%). Viral log10 reduction needed to ensure safe swimming conditions varied by subwatershed and season and was greatest in the dry season (3.8 to 4.1 dry; 2.7 to 3.2 rainy). QMRA that accounts for seasonal and local variability of water quality contributes to understanding the complex influences of hydrology, land use, and environment on human health risk in tropical coastal areas and can contribute to improved beach management. IMPORTANCE This holistic investigation of sanitary water quality at a Costa Rican beach assessed microbial source tracking (MST) marker genes, pathogens, and indicators of sewage. Such studies are still rare in tropical climates. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) found that rivers impacting the beach consistently exceeded the U.S. EPA risk threshold for gastroenteritis of 36/1,000 swimmers. The study improves upon many QMRA studies by measuring specific pathogens, rather than relying on surrogates (indicator organisms or MST markers) or estimating pathogen concentrations from the literature. By analyzing microbial levels and estimating the risk of gastrointestinal illness in each river, we were able to discern differences in pathogen levels and human health risks even though all rivers were highly polluted by wastewater and were located less than 2.5 km from one another. This variability on a localized scale has not, to our knowledge, previously been demonstrated.

Integrating life cycle assessment with quantitative microbial risk assessment for a holistic evaluation of sewage treatment plant

An integrated approach was employed in the present study to combine life cycle assessment (LCA) with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess an existing sewage treatment plant (STP) at Roorkee, India. The midpoint LCA modeling revealed that high electricity consumption (≈ 576 kWh.day^-1) contributed to the maximum environmental burdens. The LCA endpoint result of 0.01 disability-adjusted life years per person per year (DALYs pppy) was obtained in terms of the impacts on human health. Further, a QMRA model was developed based on representative sewage pathogens, including E. coli O157:H7, Giardia sp., adenovirus, norovirus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The public health risk associated with intake of pathogen-laden aerosols during treated water reuse in sprinkler irrigation was determined. A cumulative health risk of 0.07 DALYs pppy was obtained, where QMRA risks contributed 86 % of the total health impacts. The annual probability of illness per person was highest for adenovirus and norovirus, followed by SARS-CoV-2, E. coli O157:H7 and Giardia sp. Overall, the study provides a methodological framework for an integrated LCA-QMRA assessment which can be applied across any treatment process to identify the hotspots contributing maximum environmental burdens and microbial health risks. Furthermore, the integrated LCA-QMRA approach could support stakeholders in the water industry to select the most suitable wastewater treatment system and establish regulations regarding the safe reuse of treated water.

Virus Emissions from Toilet Flushing: Comparing Urine-Diverting to Mix Flush Toilets

High levels of viruses can be found in human excrement from infected individuals, a fraction of which can be emitted from toilet flushing. Unlike the common mix flush toilet (MFT), the urine-diverting toilet (UDT) separates urine from the toilet water. Specific focus on urine-associated viruses is needed because the UDT can emit different levels of urine-associated and fecal-borne viruses and urine has different properties compared to feces that can affect emission levels (e.g., protein content). In this work, we quantified emission levels of surrogate bacteriophages for urine-associated and fecal-borne viruses, MS2 and T3, from flushing a UDT and an MFT, with and without protein in the water. Emission levels of viruses in the water of the UDT were lower than that of the MFT by up to 1.2-log10 and 1.3-log10 for T3 and MS2, respectively. If urine is completely diverted in the UDT, virus emissions can be reduced by up to 4-log10. Based on these results and typical levels in urine and feces, we estimate that up to 107 and 108 gene copies of human viruses per flush can be released from the UDT and MFT, respectively. Lower emissions observed with the UDT suggest reduced exposure to viruses from flushing the UDT.

Waterborne virus transport and the associated risks in a large lake

Waterborne enteric viruses in lakes, especially at recreational water sites, may have a negative impact on human health. However, their fate and transport in lakes are poorly understood. In this study, we propose a coupled water quality and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model to study the transport, fate and infection risk of four common waterborne viruses (adenovirus, enterovirus, norovirus and rotavirus), using Lake Geneva as a study site. The measured virus load in raw sewage entering the lake was used as the source term in the water quality simulations for a hypothetical scenario of discharging raw wastewater at the lake surface. After discharge into the lake, virus inactivation was modeled as a function of water temperature and solar irradiance that varied both spatially and temporally during transport throughout the lake. Finally, the probability of infection, while swimming at a popular beach, was quantified and compared among the four viruses. Norovirus was found to be the most abundant virus that causes an infection probability that is at least 10 times greater than the other viruses studied. Furthermore, environmental inactivation was found to be an essential determinant in the infection risks posed by viruses to recreational water users. We determined that infection risks by enterovirus and rotavirus could be up to 1000 times lower when virus inactivation by environmental stressors was accounted for compared with the scenarios considering hydrodynamic transport only. Finally, the model highlighted the role of the wind field in conveying the contamination plume and hence in determining infection probability. Our simulations revealed that for beaches located west of the sewage discharge, the infection probability under eastward wind was 43% lower than that under westward wind conditions. This study highlights the potential of combining water quality simulation and virus-specific risk assessment for a safe water resources usage and management.

Virus contamination and infectivity in beach environment: Focus on sand and stranded material

To assess the exposure of beachgoers to viruses, a study on seawater, sand, and beach-stranded material was carried out, searching for human viruses, fecal indicator organisms, and total fungi. Moreover, for the first time, the genome persistence and infectivity of two model viruses was studied in laboratory-spiked sand and seawater samples during a one-week experiment. Viral genome was detected in 13.6 % of the environmental samples, but it was not infectious (Human Adenovirus - HAdV, and enterovirus). Norovirus and SARS-CoV-2 were not detected. The most contaminated samples were from sand and close to riverine discharges. In lab-scale experiments, the infectivity of HAdV5 decreased by ~1.5-Log₁₀ in a week, the one of Human Coronavirus-229E disappeared in <3 h in sand. The genome of both viruses persisted throughout the experiment. Our results confirm viral contamination of the beach and suggest HAdV as an index pathogen for beach monitoring and quantitative risk assessment.

Assessment of rotavirus and norovirus emitted from water spray park: QMRA, diseases burden and sensitivity analysis

A quantitative model on exposure to pathogenic viruses in air of recreational area and their corresponding health effects is necessary to provide mitigation actions in content of emergency response plans (ERP). Here, the health risk associated with exposure to two pathogenic viruses of concern: Rotavirus (RoV) and Norovirus (NoV) in air of water spray park were estimated using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. To this end, real-time Reverse Transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR) was employed to measure the concentration levels of RoV and NoV over a twelve-month period. The probability of infection, illness and diseases burden of gastrointestinal illness (GI) caused by RoV and NoV for both workers and visitors were estimated using QMRA and Monto-Carlo simulation technique. The annual mean concentration for RoV and NoV in sampling air of water spray park were 20and 1754, respectively. The %95 confidence interval (CI) calculated annual DALY indicator for RoV (Workers: 2.62 × 10⁻⁴–2.62 × 10⁻¹, Visitors: 1.50 × 10⁻⁵–2.42 × 10⁻¹) and NoV (Workers: 5.54 × 10⁻³–2.53 × 10⁻¹; Visitors: 5.18 × 10⁻⁴–2.54 × 10⁻¹) were significantly higher the recommended values by WHO and US EPA (10⁻⁶–10⁻⁴ DALY pppy). According to sensitivity analysis, exposure dose and disease burden per case (DBPC) were found as the most influencing factors on disease burden as a consequences of exposure to RoV and NoV, respectively. The comprehensive information on DALY and QMRA can aid authorities involved in risk assessment and recreational actions to adopt proper approach and mitigation actions to minimize the health risk.

Bayesian estimation of seasonal and between year variability of norovirus infection risks for workers in agricultural water reuse using epidemiological data

Norovirus infections are among the major causes of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. In Germany, norovirus infections are the most frequently reported cause of gastroenteritis, although only laboratory confirmed cases are officially counted. The high infectivity and environmental persistence of norovirus, makes the virus a relevant pathogen for water related infections. In the 2017 guidelines for potable water reuse, the World Health Organization proposes Norovirus as a reference pathogen for viral pathogens for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). A challenge for QMRA is, that norovirus data are rarely available over long monitoring periods to assess inter-annual variability of the associated health risk, raising the question about the relevance of this source of variability regarding potential risk management alternatives. Moreover, norovirus infections show high prevalence during winter and early spring and lower incidence during summer. Therefore, our objective is to derive risk scenarios for assessing the potential relevance of the within and between year variability of norovirus concentrations in municipal wastewater for the assessment of health risks of fieldworkers, if treated wastewater is used for irrigation in agriculture. To this end, we use the correlation between norovirus influent concentration and reported epidemiological incidence (R²=0.93), found at a large city in Germany. Risk scenarios are subsequently derived from long-term reported epidemiological data, by applying a Bayesian regression approach. For assessing the practical relevance for wastewater reuse we apply the risk scenarios to different irrigation patterns under various treatment options, namely "status-quo" and "irrigation on demand". While status-quo refers to an almost all-year irrigation, the latter assumes that irrigation only takes place during the vegetation period from May - September. Our results indicate that the log-difference of infection risks between scenarios may vary between 0.8 and 1.7 log given the same level of pre-treatment. They also indicate that under the same exposure scenario the between-year variability of norovirus infection risk may be > 1log, which makes it a relevant factor to consider in future QMRA studies and studies which aim at evaluating safe water reuse applications. The predictive power and wider use of epidemiological data as a suitable predictor variable should be further validated with paired multi-year data.

Risk-based treatment targets for onsite non-potable water systems using new pathogen data

Using local sources (roof runoff, stormwater, graywater, and onsite wastewater) to meet non-potable water demands can minimize potable water use in buildings and increase supply reliability. In 2017, an Independent Advisory Panel developed a risk-based framework to identify pathogen log reduction targets (LRTs) for onsite non-potable water systems (ONWSs). Subsequently, California's legislature mandated the development and adoption of regulations-including risk-based LRTs-for use in multifamily residential, commercial, and mixed-use buildings. A California Expert Panel was convened in 2021 to (1) update the LRT requirements using new, quantitative pathogen data and (2) propose treatment trains capable of meeting the updated LRTs. This paper presents the updated risk-based LRTs for multiple pathogens (viruses, protozoa, and bacteria) and an expanded set of end-uses including toilet flushing, clothes washing, irrigation, dust and fire suppression, car washing, and decorative fountains. The updated 95th percentile LRTs required for each source water, pathogen, and end-use were typically within 1-log₁₀ of the 2017 LRTs regardless of the approach used to estimate pathogen concentrations. LRT requirements decreased with influent pathogen concentrations from wastewater to graywater to stormwater to roof runoff. Cost and footprint estimates provide details on the capital, operations and maintenance, and siting requirements for ONWS implementation.

Microbial source tracking of fecal contamination in stormwater runoff

Concerns over fecal contamination in stormwater canals have promoted the need for pollution control strategies, including the use of microbial source tracking, to identify fecal contamination in the Greater New Orleans Area. Surface water samples were collected over a 12-month period at five canal locations within Jefferson Parish, Louisiana. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction and the IDEXX method were used to assess the concentrations of coliforms, Escherichia coli (E. coli) and human fecal 183 bacteroides (HF183) in stormwater samples. A 100% positive detection rate of total coliforms and E. coli was observed across all tested sites. Despite the closeness of the five sites, when averaged across all sampling time points, Kruskal-Wallis tests indicated that E. coli was present at significantly different concentrations in these locations (χ²(5) = 19.8, p = 0.0005). HF183 was detected in 62% of the water samples collected during the stormwater sampling. Without further testing for HF183 markers, the conclusion from this study would have been that fecal contamination from an unknown source was always present at varying levels during the study period. Analysis of HF183 markers therefore adds another layer of conclusions to the results deductible from E. coli concentrations. A 100% E. coli detection rate, high E. coli concentrations coupled with low rates of HF183 detection particularly at the Esplanade, Poplar Street, and Bonnabel Boat Launch sites, the sites closest to the lake outlet, throughout the study period, indicate that fecal contamination at these stormwater canal sites comes primarily from non-human sources. However, the Metairie Road and Napoleon Avenue sites, which have the highest HF183 detection rates, on top of chronic pollution by other non-human sources, are also influenced by human fecal pollution, possibly because of human development and faulty infrastructure. This study highlights the advantages of the use of microbial source-tracking methods to complement traditional indicator bacteria.

Quantification of human adenovirus in irrigation water-soil-crop continuum: are consumers of wastewater-irrigated vegetables at risk?

Because of health concerns regarding the presence of enteric viruses in wastewater effluents, this study was designed to investigate the occurrence of human adenovirus (HAdV) in the irrigation water-soil-crop continuum. Viral particles were extracted from wastewater and wastewater- or water-irrigated soil and crop samples and analyzed using real-time PCR. Concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) were also determined. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was performed to determine the HAdV illness risk associated with the consumption of wastewater-irrigated vegetables. HAdV-F was detected in 74% of wastewater effluent samples with a mean concentration of 38 Genomic Copy (GC)/mL. HAdV was also detected in wastewater-irrigated soil (2 × 102 GC/g) and crop (< 10 GC/g) samples, with no statistically significant difference in concentrations between wastewater- and freshwater-irrigated samples. The results showed no correlation between concentrations of FIB and HAdV in the analyzed samples. Mean probability of illness risk from consumption of wastewater-irrigated vegetables was 4 × 10-1 per person per year (pppy) which was about two orders of magnitude higher than the proposed value by WHO (10-3 pppy) for safe reuse of wastewater. This finding suggests that the wastewater reuse for irrigation of vegetables eaten raw could pose a threat to human health with respect to the risk of viral illness, signifying stricter management of wastewater reuse. However, because of uncertainties in the QMRA model, particularly the ratio of infectious to non-infectious virus particles, more data is required to validate the predicted risk. This information is especially important in arid and semi-arid regions where high temperatures, UV radiation intensity, and desiccation can efficiently inactivate microorganisms in the environment.

Natural aging of expanded shale, clay, and slate (ESCS) amendment with heavy metals in stormwater increases its antibacterial properties: Implications on biofilter design

Aging is often expected to decrease the pathogen removal capacity of media because of exhaustion of attachment sites by adsorption of co-contaminants and dissolved organics. In contrast, the adsorption of metals naturally present in stormwater during aging could have a positive impact on pathogen removal. To examine the effect of adsorbed metals on pathogen removal, biofilter media amended with expanded clay, shale, and slate (ESCS) aggregates, a lightweight aggregate, were exposed to metals by intermittently injecting natural stormwater spiked with Cu, Pb, and Zn, and the capacity of aged and unaged media to remove Escherichia coli (E. coli), a pathogen indicator, were compared. Metal adsorption on ESCS media decreased their net negative surface charge and altered the surface properties as confirmed by zeta potential measurement and Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis. These changes increased the E. coli adsorption capacity of aged media compared with unaged media and decreased overall remobilization of attached E. coli during intermittent infiltration of stormwater. A live-dead analysis confirmed that the adsorbed metals inactivated attached E. coli, thereby replenishing the adsorption capacity. Overall, the results confirmed that natural aging of biofilter media with adsorbed metals could indeed have a net positive effect on E. coli removal in biofilters and therefore should be included in the conceptual model predicting long-term removal of pathogens from stormwater containing mixed pollutants.

Microbial characteristics of municipal solid waste compost: Occupational and public health risks from surface applied compost

Land application of MSW compost promotes the soil fertility and productivity, but there is concern about its chemical and microbial quality. Although, current microbial indicators of MSW compost are generally considered to be protective of human health, the use of these indicators doesn't adequately represent the presence of pathogens that might be more resistant to inactivation during composting process. This work aims evaluation of the microbial characteristics of MSW compost and estimation of the health risks associated with exposure to pathogens of potential concern in MSW compost. Although the recommended standards for fecal coliforms and Salmonella were met in a relatively high percentage of samples, there were detectable levels of microbial pathogens. The highest daily infection risk was estimated for Cryptosporidium (1.25 × 10^-3 per person) followed by Salmonella and Campylobacter, while the lowest related to adenovirus. Infection risks were low for both farmers and children in one-time exposure and all pathogen risks were decreased with increasing waiting time to near insignificant levels. However, the median annual risk of cryptosporidiosis or gastroenteritis was above the recommended value of 10^-3 per person per year. Because of potential presence of pathogens in MSW compost, some level of pathogen monitoring beyond conventional indicators may be required to estimate potential risks. The findings of this study could provide information to governments and local authorities in making decisions on measures to reduce risk from application of MSW compost. Further research is needed to obtain the reliable information about the inactivation of microorganisms in environment.

Climate Change Impacts on Microbiota in Beach Sand and Water: Looking Ahead

Beach sand and water have both shown relevance for human health and their microbiology have been the subjects of study for decades. Recently, the World Health Organization recommended that recreational beach sands be added to the matrices monitored for enterococci and Fungi. Global climate change is affecting beach microbial contamination, via changes to conditions like water temperature, sea level, precipitation, and waves. In addition, the world is changing, and humans travel and relocate, often carrying endemic allochthonous microbiota. Coastal areas are amongst the most frequent relocation choices, especially in regions where desertification is taking place. A warmer future will likely require looking beyond the use of traditional water quality indicators to protect human health, in order to guarantee that waterways are safe to use for bathing and recreation. Finally, since sand is a complex matrix, an alternative set of microbial standards is necessary to guarantee that the health of beach users is protected from both sand and water contaminants. We need to plan for the future safer use of beaches by adapting regulations to a climate-changing world.

Microbiological characterization of stormwater in a high-income neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Stormwater harvesting and reuse in the urban environment is emerging as an alternative water source, despite human pathogens in the stormwater may represent a hazard to public health. This study presents the results of 1-year monitoring to evaluate the quality of stormwater obtained in a high-income neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro for a set of microbiological parameters as total coliforms, Escherichia coli (E. coli), human adenovirus (HAdV), human JC polyomavirus (JCPyV), Group A rotavirus (RVA), and norovirus GI and GII. Forty-eight stormwater samples obtained from two multiplex units presented total coliforms and E. coli in 91.7% (n = 44) and 58.3% (n = 28) of samples, while HAdV and JCPyV were detected in 20.8% (n = 10) and 12.5% (n = 6), respectively. Viral quantification ranged from 10³ to 10⁴ genomic copies/liter (GC/L) for HAdV and from 10¹ to 10⁴ GC/L for JCPyV. Neither RVA nor norovirus GI and GII was detected. Fifteen out of sixteen (93.8%) samples containing viruses were compliant as per fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) according to Brazilian standards for rainwater reuse and US EPA Guidelines for Water Reuse, suggesting that viruses monitoring should complement the study of bacterial indicators.

Exposure parameters and health risk of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in the recreational water activities for urban residents in China

Knowledge gaps in the exposure parameters for recreational water activities make quantitative risk assessment related to water recreation difficult. Therefore, the annual exposure frequency and single exposure duration for the recreational water activities of residents from ten cities in the North and South of China were investigated. Questionnaire interviews were carried on recreational water activities comprising swimming (SW), boating (BA), playing in interactive fountains (PF), and watching fountains (WF). Quantitative microbial risk assessment for the exposure of urban residents to Cryptosporidium and Giardia was also performed. For the four recreational water activities, the participation rates of urban residents in SW and WF were higher than the others. For SW and BA, the mean annual exposure frequency and single exposure duration for males were significantly higher than those for females. PF and WF showed the opposite. The annual exposure frequency for above 35-year-old residents was higher than that for young residents (18-35 years). However, the single exposure duration for young residents was highest in SW, BA, and PF. The mean annual exposure frequency and single exposure duration for North China residents were higher than those for South China residents in all recreational water activities, except for SW. Overall, the annual exposure frequency and single exposure duration in recreational water activities for all urban residents followed a lognormal distribution. In the four recreational water activities, the total annual infection risk of male exposure to Cryptosporidium was 1.0 × 10^-2, with the confidence intervals between 95 and 5% of [4.3 × 10^-4, 3.7 × 10^-2], whereas that for females was 6.8 × 10^-3 and [4.2 × 10^-4, 2.4 × 10^-2]. Also, the annual infection risk of males to Giardia was 8.8 × 10^-3 and [5.1×10^-4, 3.2×10^-2], and that of females was 5.3 × 10^-3 and [4.0 × 10^-4, 1.8 × 10^-2]. These results demonstrated that SW and PF made the highest contribution to the total annual infection risk. Sensitivity analysis highlighted that the characterization of exposure parameters plays a critical role in health risk assessment, which may provide a scientific basis for recreational water quality standards formulation.

Using QMRA to understand possible exposure risks of SARS-CoV-2 from the water environment

This study investigated the human risk of infection due to inadvertent ingestion of water during swimming in a river that receives SARS-CoV-2-containing effluent from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) approach was applied for risk estimation using dose-response models (DRM) of different surrogate coronaviruses (SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV) and the virus responsible for most infectious respiratory illnesses (i.e., influenza A H5N1) due to the unavailability of DRM for SARS-CoV-2. The ratio of infectious concentration to genomic copies of SARS-CoV-2 is unknown and also unavailable for other coronaviruses. Therefore, literature-based information on enteric viruses was used for formulating the ratio used for QMRA, although it is acknowledged that identifying this information for SARS-CoV-2 is a priority, and in the absence of information specific to SARS-CoV-2, another coronavirus would be a preferable surrogate to the enteric viruses used here. The calculated concentration of ingested SARS-CoV-2 ranged between 4.6 × 10-7 and 80.5 genomic copies/dip (one swim = 32 mL). The risk of infection (> 9 × 10-12 to 5.8 × 10-1) was found to be > 1/10,000 annual risk of infection. Moreover, the study revealed that the risk estimation was largely dependent on the value of the molecular concentration of SARS-CoV-2 (gc/mL). Overall immediate attention is required for obtaining information on the (i) ratio of infectious virus to genomic copies, (ii) DRM for SARS-CoV-2, and (iii) virus reduction rate after treatment in the WWTPs. The QMRA structure used in present findings is helpful in analyzing and prioritizing upcoming health risks due to swimming performed in contaminated rivers during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Systematic review of the relative concentrations of noroviruses and fecal indicator bacteria in wastewater: considerations for use in quantitative microbial risk assessment

Human noroviruses are a leading cause of food- and water-borne disease, which has led to an interest in quantifying norovirus health risks using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Given the limited availability of quantitative norovirus data to input to QMRA models, some studies have applied a conversion factor to estimate norovirus exposure based on measured fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations. We conducted a review of peer-reviewed publications to identify the concentrations of noroviruses and FIB in raw, secondary-treated, and disinfected wastewater. A meta-analysis was performed to determine the ratios of norovirus-FIB pairs in each wastewater matrix and the variables that significantly impact these ratios. Norovirus-to-FIB ratios were found to be significantly impacted by the norovirus genotype, month of sample collection, geographic location, and the extent of wastewater treatment. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of using a FIB-to-virus conversion factor in QMRA and found that the choice of conversion ratio has a great impact on estimated health risks. For example, the use of a conversion ratio previously used in the World Health Organization Guidelines for the Safe Use of Wastewater, Excreta and Greywater predicted health risks that were significantly lower than those estimated with measured norovirus concentrations used as inputs. This work emphasizes the gold standard of using measured pathogen concentrations directly as inputs to exposure assessment in QMRA. While not encouraged, if one must use a FIB-to-virus conversion ratio to estimate norovirus dose, the ratio should be chosen carefully based on the target microorganisms (i.e., strain, genotype, or class), prevalence of disease, and extent of wastewater treatment.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) of Workers Exposure to Bioaerosols at MSW Open Dumpsites

The bioaerosol exposure data from the study by Akpeimeh, Fletcher, and Evans (2019) was used to compute the risk of infection from the exposure of dumpsite workers to Aspergillus fumigatus and Escherichia coli O157:H7. A stochastic (Markov Chain) model was used to model the transport of the inhaled dose though the human respiratory system and then integrated into the beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate workers risks of respiratory and gastrointestinal (GI) infection. The infection risk was computed based on workers exposure to E. coli O157:H7 at 10-50% pathogen ingestion rate and pathogen-indicator ratio (P:I) of 1:10³ and 1:10⁴ , while exposure to A. fumigatus was based solely on the average initial exposure dose. The results showed that after 11 hours of exposure, workers engaged in scavenging, waste sorting, and site monitoring were at risk of respiratory and GI infection in the magnitude of 10^-1 . However, the risk estimates associated with specific areas of the dumpsite showed that, the risk of GI infection at the active area ranged between 3.23 × 10^-3 -1.56 × 10^-2 and 3.25 × 10^-4 -1.62 × 10^-3 ; dormant area 2.06 × 10^-3 -1.01 × 10^-2 and 2.09 × 10^-4 -1.04 × 10^-3 ; entrance 1.85 × 10^-3 -9.09 × 10^-3 and 1.87 × 10^-4 -9.27 × 10^-4 ; boundary 1.82 × 10^-3 -8.82 × 10^-3 and 2.09 × 10^-4 -8.94 × 10^-4 for P:I = 1:10³ and 1:10⁴ respectively, while the risk of respiratory infection risks were in the magnitude of 10^-1 for all four locations. The estimated risk of workers developing respiratory and gastrointestinal infections were high for all activities assessed at the dumpsite.

Iron amendments minimize the first-flush release of pathogens from stormwater biofilters

First flush or the first pore volume of effluent eluted from biofilters at the start of rainfall contributes to most pollution downstream because it typically contains a high concentration of bacterial pathogens. Thus, it is critical to evaluate designs that could minimize the release of bacteria during a period of high risk. In this study, we test the hypothesis of whether an addition of iron-based media to biofilter could limit the leaching of Escherichia coli (E. coli), a pathogen indicator, during the first flush. We applied E. coli-contaminated stormwater intermittently in columns packed with a mixture of sand and compost (70:30 by volume, respectively) and iron filings at three concentrations: 0% (control), 3%, and 10% by weight. Columns packed with a mixture of sand and iron (3% or 10%) without compost were used to examine the maximum capacity of iron to remove E. coli. In columns with iron, particularly 10% by weight, the leaching of E. coli during the first flush was 32% lower than the leaching from compost columns, indicating that the addition of iron amendments could decrease first-flush leaching of E. coli. We attribute this result to the ability of iron to increase adsorption and decrease growth during antecedent drying periods. Although the addition of iron filings increased E. coli removal, the presence of compost decreased the adsorption capacity: exposure of 1 g of iron filings to 1 mg of DOC reduces E. coli removal by 8%. The result was attributed to the alteration of the surface charge of iron and blocking of adsorption sites shared by E. coli and DOC. Collectively, these results indicate that the addition of sufficient amounts of iron media could decrease pathogen leaching in the first flush effluent and increase the overall biofilter performance and protect downstream water quality.

COVID-19 infection risk from exposure to aerosols of wastewater treatment plants

Fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 from COVID-19 patients and presence of the viral RNA in wastewater have extensively been reported. Some wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) processes generate aerosols which have the potential to transmit pathogenic microorganisms and present a health risk for exposed individuals. We analyzed the presence of viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 in raw wastewater and air samples of WWTPs. The risk that may arise from exposure to virus-contaminated aerosols of wastewater was estimated by developing a quantitative microbial risk analysis (QMRA) method. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 9 of 24 (37.5%) wastewater samples with a concentration about 10⁴ genomic copies L^-1. The viral RNA was also detected in 40% (6/15) of air samples. QMRA analysis showed a relatively high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for wastewater workers via exposure to the viral aerosols. The estimated annual infection risk ranged from 1.1 × 10^-2 to 2.3 × 10^-2 per person per year (PPPY) for wastewater workers which was higher than the reference level recommended by WHO (10^-3 pppy). However, due to the lack of data on survival of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and its fate in aerosolized state, more research is needed to determine the importance of wastewater in transmission of COVID-19.

Navigating Data Uncertainty and Modeling Assumptions in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in an Informal Settlement in Kampala, Uganda

Decision-makers in developing communities often lack credible data to inform decisions related to water, sanitation, and hygiene. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), which quantifies pathogen-related health risks across exposure routes, can be informative; however, the utility of QMRA for decision-making is often undermined by data gaps. This work integrates QMRA, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and household surveys in Bwaise, Kampala (Uganda) to characterize the implications of censored data management, identify sources of uncertainty, and incorporate risk perceptions to improve the suitability of QMRA for informal settlements or similar settings. In Bwaise, drinking water, hand rinse, and soil samples were collected from 45 households and supplemented with data from 844 surveys. Quantified pathogen (adenovirus, Campylobacter jejuni, and Shigella spp./EIEC) concentrations were used with QMRA to model infection risks from exposure through drinking water, hand-to-mouth contact, and soil ingestion. Health risks were most sensitive to pathogen data, hand-to-mouth contact frequency, and dose-response models (particularly C. jejuni). When managing censored data, results from upper limits of detection, half of limits of detection, and uniform distributions returned similar results, which deviated from lower limits of detection and maximum likelihood estimation imputation approaches. Finally, risk perceptions (e.g., it is unsafe to drink directly from a water source) were identified to inform risk management.

Rapid Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Risk for Fecally Contaminated River Water

Following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), airborne water droplets have been identified as the main transmission route. Identifying and breaking all viable transmission routes are critical to stop future outbreaks, and the potential of transmission by water has been highlighted. By modifying established approaches, we provide a method for the rapid assessment of the risk of transmission posed by fecally contaminated river water and give example results for 39 countries. The country relative risk of transmission posed by fecally contaminated river water is related to the environment and the populations' infection rate and water usage. On the basis of in vitro data and using temperature as the primary controller of survival, we then demonstrate how viral loads likely decrease after a spill. These methods using readily available data suggest that sewage spills into rivers within countries with high infection rates could provide infectious doses of >40 copies per 100 mL of water. The approach, implemented in the supplementary spreadsheet, can provide a fast estimate of the upper and lower viral load ranges following a riverine spill. The results enable evidence-based research recommendations for wastewater epidemiology and could be used to evaluate the significance of fecal-oral transmission within freshwater systems.

Rapid Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Risk for Fecally Contaminated River Water

Following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), airborne water droplets have been identified as the main transmission route. Identifying and breaking all viable transmission routes are critical to stop future outbreaks, and the potential of transmission by water has been highlighted. By modifying established approaches, we provide a method for the rapid assessment of the risk of transmission posed by fecally contaminated river water and give example results for 39 countries. The country relative risk of transmission posed by fecally contaminated river water is related to the environment and the populations' infection rate and water usage. On the basis of in vitro data and using temperature as the primary controller of survival, we then demonstrate how viral loads likely decrease after a spill. These methods using readily available data suggest that sewage spills into rivers within countries with high infection rates could provide infectious doses of >40 copies per 100 mL of water. The approach, implemented in the supplementary spreadsheet, can provide a fast estimate of the upper and lower viral load ranges following a riverine spill. The results enable evidence-based research recommendations for wastewater epidemiology and could be used to evaluate the significance of fecal-oral transmission within freshwater systems.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater treatment plants

The current global Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic has heightened calls for studies to evaluate respiratory exposure for wastewater treatment workers. In this global first study, we assess occupational health risks to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) operators from inhalation of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 using a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework. The following considerations were used to develop the QMRA and assess the illness risks to workers: a) the proportion of the population who are infected and thus responsible for shedding SARS-CoV-2 into raw wastewater; b) the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in raw and treated wastewater; c) the volume of aerosolized water inhaled by a WWTP operator during work; d) humidity and temperature-dependent viability of coronaviruses in aerosolized waste water; e) estimation of the amount, frequency, and duration of exposure; and f) exposure doses. The variables were then fed into an exponential dose response model to estimate the risks in three scenarios representing low-grade, moderate and aggressive outbreaks. These scenarios were designed on the assumption of 0.03%, 0.3% and 3% of the wastewater-generating population being infected with SARS-CoV-2. In terms of averaged-out illness risk profiles, the individual illness risks for low grade, moderate and aggressive outbreak scenarios respectively are 0.036, 0.32 and 3.21 illness cases per 1000 exposed WWTP operators. Our study suggests that the risk of accidental occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in raw wastewater, via inhalation at the WWTP environment, is negligible, particularly when less than 0.3% of the population served by the plant are actively infected.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Pediatric Infections Attributable to Ingestion of Fecally Contaminated Domestic Soils in Low-Income Urban Maputo, Mozambique

Rigorous studies of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suggest that children are exposed to enteric pathogens via multiple interacting pathways, including soil ingestion. In 30 compounds (household clusters) in low-income urban Maputo, Mozambique, we cultured Escherichia coli and quantified gene targets from soils (E. coli: ybbW, Shigella/enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC): ipaH, Giardia duodenalis: β-giardin) using droplet digital PCR at three compound locations (latrine entrance, solid waste area, dishwashing area). We found that 88% of samples were positive for culturable E. coli (mean = 3.2 log10 CFUs per gram of dry soil), 100% for molecular E. coli (mean = 5.9 log10 gene copies per gram of dry soil), 44% for ipaH (mean = 2.5 log10), and 41% for β-giardin (mean = 2.1 log10). Performing stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment using soil ingestion parameters from an LMIC setting for children 12-23 months old, we estimated that the median annual infection risk by G. duodenalis was 7100-fold (71% annual infection risk) and by Shigella/EIEC was 4000-fold (40% annual infection risk) greater than the EPA's standard for drinking water. Compounds in Maputo, and similar settings, require contact and source control strategies to reduce the ingestion of contaminated soil and achieve acceptable levels of risk.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of bioaerosols in a wastewater treatment plant by using two aeration modes

Nonnegligible emission of bioaerosols usually occurs during aeration of wastewater in aerator tanks in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Literature had shown that the respiratory and intestinal diseases of workers at WWTPs are related to bioaerosols. Thus, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) based on Monte Carlo simulation was utilized in this research to assess the health risks of Gram-negative bacteria bioaerosol (GNBB) and Staphylococcus aureus bioaerosol (SAB) among academic visitors and staffs. Results showed that the concentrations of GNBB and SAB in the inverted umbrella aeration mode were consistently higher than those in the microporous aeration mode under all six size distribution ranges of the Anderson six-stage impactor. Thus, GNBB and SAB can be highly threatening to the weasand and first bronchus (or alveoli and third bronchus) for the exposure populations. The health risks (annual probability of infection (P_y) and disease burden (DB)) of males were constantly higher than those of females for each certain exposure scenario. The health risks of staffs were higher than those of academic visitors when assessed by Monte Carlo simulation. The wearing of mask is an effective measure to minimize health risks through reducing the bioaerosol concentration intake. Especially, for the academic visitors and staffs exposed to GNBB, all their DB failed to meet the World Health Organization DB benchmark under various credible intervals when they were without a mask on. In a word, the results of health risk assessment in this research can be utilized as an educational tool and policy basis to facilitate the implementation of efficacious prevention measures to protect the public health from bioaerosol health threats in WWTPs.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 for workers in wastewater treatment plants

Faecal-oral transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is yet to be validated, but it is a critical issue and additional research is needed to elucidate the risks of the novel coronavirus in sanitation systems. This is the first study that investigates the potential health risks of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) workers. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is applied for three COVID-19 scenarios (moderate, aggressive and extreme) to study the effects of different stages of the pandemic in terms of percentage of infected population on the probability of infection to WWTP workers. A dose-response model for SARS-CoV-1 (as a surrogate pathogen) is assumed in the QMRA for SARS-CoV-2 using an exponential model with k = 4.1 × 10². Literature data are incorporated to inform assumptions for calculating the viral load, develop the model, and derive a tolerable infection risk. Results reveal that estimates of viral RNA in sewage at the entrance of WWTPs ranged from 4.14 × 10¹ to 5.23 × 10³ GC·mL^-1 (viable virus concentration from 0.04 to 5.23 PFU·mL^-1, respectively). In addition, estimated risks for the aggressive and extreme scenarios (2.6 × 10^-3 and 1.3 × 10^-2, respectively) were likely to be above the derived tolerable infection risk for SARS-CoV-2 of 5.5 × 10^-4 pppy, thus reinforcing the concern of sewage systems as a possible transmission pathway of SARS-CoV-2. These findings are helpful as an early health warning tool and in prioritizing upcoming risk management strategies, such as Emergency Response Plans (ERPs) for water and sanitation operators during the COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 for workers in wastewater treatment plants

Faecal-oral transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is yet to be validated, but it is a critical issue and additional research is needed to elucidate the risks of the novel coronavirus in sanitation systems. This is the first study that investigates the potential health risks of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) workers. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is applied for three COVID-19 scenarios (moderate, aggressive and extreme) to study the effects of different stages of the pandemic in terms of percentage of infected population on the probability of infection to WWTP workers. A dose-response model for SARS-CoV-1 (as a surrogate pathogen) is assumed in the QMRA for SARS-CoV-2 using an exponential model with k = 4.1 × 10². Literature data are incorporated to inform assumptions for calculating the viral load, develop the model, and derive a tolerable infection risk. Results reveal that estimates of viral RNA in sewage at the entrance of WWTPs ranged from 4.14 × 10¹ to 5.23 × 10³ GC·mL^-1 (viable virus concentration from 0.04 to 5.23 PFU·mL^-1, respectively). In addition, estimated risks for the aggressive and extreme scenarios (2.6 × 10^-3 and 1.3 × 10^-2, respectively) were likely to be above the derived tolerable infection risk for SARS-CoV-2 of 5.5 × 10^-4 pppy, thus reinforcing the concern of sewage systems as a possible transmission pathway of SARS-CoV-2. These findings are helpful as an early health warning tool and in prioritizing upcoming risk management strategies, such as Emergency Response Plans (ERPs) for water and sanitation operators during the COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Estimation of the potential spread risk of COVID-19: Occurrence assessment along the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River basins in Hubei, China

Given that the novel coronavirus was detected in stool and urine from diagnosed patients, the potential risk of its transmission through the water environment might not be ignored. In the current study, to investigate the spread possibility of COVID-19 via the environmental media, three typical rivers (Yangtze, Han, and Fu River) and watershed cities in Hubei province of China were selected, and a more comprehensive risk assessment analysis method was built with a risk index proposed. Results showed that the risk index in the Yangtze River Basin is about 10^-12, compared to 10^-10 and 10^-8 in the Han and Fu River Basins, and the risk index is gradually reduced from Wuhan city to the surrounding cities. The safety radius and safety time period for the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River are 8 km/14 h, 20 km/30 h and 36 km/36 h, respectively. The linear relationship between the risk potential calculated by the QMRA model and the multiple linear regression proved that the built index model is statistically significant. By comparing the theoretical removal rates for the novel coronavirus, our study proposed an effective method to estimate the potential spread risk of COVID-19 in the typical river basins.

Addressing and reducing parameter uncertainty in quantitative microbial risk assessment by incorporating external information via Bayesian hierarchical modeling

Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies define model inputs as random variables and use Monte-Carlo simulation to generate distributions of potential risk outcomes. If local information on important QMRA model inputs is missing, it is widely accepted to justify assumptions about these model inputs by using external literature information. A question, which remains unexplored, is the extent to which previously published external information should influence local estimates in cases of nonexistent, scarce, and moderate local data. This question can be addressed by employing Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM). Thus, we study the effects and potential benefits of BHM on risk and performance target calculations at three wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) in comparison to alternative statistical modeling approaches (separate modeling, no-pooling, complete pooling). The treated wastewater from the WWTPs is used for restricted irrigation, potable reuse, or influences recreational waters, respectively. We quantify the extent to which external data affects local risk estimations in each case depending on the statistical modeling approach applied. Modeling approaches are compared by calculating the pointwise expected log-predictive density for each model. As reference pathogens and example data, we use locally collected Norovirus genogroup II data with varying sample sizes (n = 4, n = 7, n = 27), and complement local information with external information from 44 other WWTPs (n = 307). Results indicate that BHM shows the highest predictive accuracy and improves estimates by reducing parameter uncertainty when data are scarce. In such situations, it may affect risk and performance target calculations by orders of magnitude in comparison to using local data alone. Furthermore, it allows making generalizable inferences about new WWTPs, while providing the necessary flexibility to adjust for different levels of information contained in the local data. Applying this flexible technique more widely may contribute to improving methods and the evidence base for decision-making in future QMRA studies.

CrAssphage abundance and correlation with molecular viral markers in Italian wastewater

Current fecal indicators for environmental health monitoring are primarily based on fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) which do not accurately represent viral pathogens. There is a need for highly abundant, human-associated viral fecal indicators to represent viral pathogens in sewage-contaminated water. In the present study, we evaluate the abundance of the emerging viral fecal indicator crAssphage in 156 Italian wastewater samples collected between 2014 and 2018. Samples were collected using two separate viral concentration methods, glycine-CF and PEG-dextran and qPCR assays were run for crAssphage (CPQ56) and Human Polyomavirus (HPyV) and endpoint PCR assays were run for Human Bocavirus (HBoc) and Hepatitis E Virus (HepE). CrAssphage was detected in 96% of samples and no statistically significant difference was observed in crAssphage abundance between concentration methods (p = 0.39). CrAssphage concentrations also did not correlate with location (latitude) or size (load and capacity) of the wastewater treatment plant. HPyV detection rates with the glycine-CF and PEG-dextran methods were 64% and 100%, respectively, and the concentrations of HPyV were statistically significantly influenced by the concentration method (p < 0.0001). CrAssphage was measured at significantly higher concentrations than HPyV for both concentration methods (p < 0.0001). The observed concentration ranges were 3.84-7.29 log₁₀GC/100 mL for crAssphage and 3.45-5.17 log₁₀GC/100 mL for HPyV. There was a strong positive correlation between crAssphage and HPyV abundance for both concentration methods; however, the slope of the correlation depended on the concentration method. CrAssphage presence correlated with the presence of HBoc in samples concentrated with glycine-CF, but did not correlate with the presence of HBoc concentrated with the PEG-dextran method or with the presence of HepE. Overall, these results demonstrate that crAssphage is an abundant viral fecal indicator in wastewater with statistically significant correlation with human viral pathogens (e.g., HPyV) and viral concentration methods influence the interpretation of fecal viral indicator detection.

Norovirus risk at a golf course irrigated with reclaimed water: Should QMRA doses be adjusted for infectiousness?

About 25 golf courses in Ontario, Canada have environmental compliance approvals to use reclaimed water for irrigation, where disinfection is confirmed through E. coli limits. A previous study at five Ontario municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) confirmed that enteric viruses are less susceptible to disinfection than E. coli, when plants provided conventional (secondary or tertiary) treatment and routine (chlorine or UV) disinfection. Here we query whether these four treatment-disinfection scenarios plus 60-day lagoon storage of disinfected effluent would be sufficient to reduce norovirus genogroups I and II (NoV GI and GII) risk of infection to tolerable levels for a golfer who incidentally ingests NoV after handling wet golf balls at a golf course irrigated with reclaimed water. We used our RT-qPCR NoV enumeration datasets from the four treatment-disinfection scenarios above and modeled detected and non-detected NoV by Bayesian inference in 'R'. Monte Carlo simulation included pre-disinfection NoV GI and GII gene copy densities; Ontario WWTP-derived chlorine and UV log₁₀ reductions; literature-derived effluent storage decay parameters and golfer ingested volumes, followed by six different NoV dose-response (DR) models. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) results suggest that there is an unacceptable NoV infection risk when using the conservative assumption that all detected NoV particles (RT-qPCR gene copies) are infectious, in both aggregated or disaggregated form. However, after adjusting for PCR target sequences and for infectiousness using data from recently published studies on cultivation of human NoV in human intestinal enteroids, we noted a significant reduction of infection risk. However, this less conservative (i.e., less protective) assumption for water reuse applications such as golf course irrigation may not be corroborated until human NoV are efficiently and routinely grown in cell cultures. In addition, further studies on drivers of NoV risk estimation by DR models are needed, e.g., the extent of NoV particle aggregation resulting from wastewater treatment, as well as the role of immunity. Meantime, regulatory agencies could consider more stringent treatment-disinfection requirements that target enteric viruses rather than E. coli and testing of actual reclaimed irrigation waters.

Application of QMRA to MAR operations for safe agricultural water reuses in coastal areas

A pathogenic Escherichia coli (E.coli) O157:H7 and O26:H11 dose-response model was set up for a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of the waterborne diseases associated with managed aquifer recharge (MAR) practices in semiarid regions. The MAR facility at Forcatella (Southern Italy) was selected for the QMRA application. The target counts of pathogens incidentally exposed to hosts by eating contaminated raw crops or while bathing at beaches of the coastal area were determined by applying the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) Bayesian method to the water sampling results. The MCMC provided the most probable pathogen count reaching the target and allowed for the minimization of the number of water samplings, and hence, reducing the associated costs. The sampling stations along the coast were positioned based on the results of a groundwater flow and pathogen transport model, which highlighted the preferential flow pathways of the transported E. coli in the fractured coastal aquifer. QMRA indicated tolerable (<10^-6 DALY) health risks for bathing at beaches and irrigation with wastewater, with 0.4 infectious diseases per year (11.4% probability of occurrence) associated with the reuse of reclaimed water via soil irrigation even though exceeding the E. coli regulation limit of 10 CFU/100 mL by five times. The results show negligible health risk and insignificant impacts on the coastal water quality due to pathogenic E. coli in the wastewater used for MAR. However, droughts and reclaimed water quality can be considered the main issues of MAR practices in semiarid regions suggesting additional reclaimed water treatments and further stress-tests via QMRAs by considering more persistent pathogens than E. coli.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment as support for bathing waters profiling

Profiling bathing waters supported by Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is key to the WHO's recommendations for the 2020/2021 revision of the European Bathing Water Directive. We developed an area-specific QMRA model on four pathogens, using fecal indicator concentrations (E. coli, enterococci) for calculating pathogen loads. The predominance of illness was found to be attributable to Human Adenovirus, followed by Salmonella, Vibrio, and Norovirus. Overall, the cumulative illness risk showed a median of around 1 case/10000 exposures. The risk estimates were strongly influenced by the indicators that were used, suggesting the need for a more detailed investigation of the different sources of fecal contamination. Area-specific threshold values for fecal indicators were estimated on a risk-basis by modelling the cumulative risk against E. coli and enterococci concentrations. To improve bathing waters assessment, we suggest considering source apportionment, locally estimating of pathogen/indicator ratios, and calculating site-specific indicators thresholds based on risk assessment.

Noroviruses are highly infectious but there is strong variation in host susceptibility and virus pathogenicity

Noroviruses are a major public health concern: their high infectivity and environmental persistence have been documented in several studies. Genetic sequencing shows that noroviruses are highly variable, and exhibit rapid evolution. A few human challenge studies have been performed with norovirus, leading to estimates of their infectivity. However, such incidental estimates do not provide insight into the biological variation of the virus and the interaction with its human host. To study the variation in infectivity and pathogenicity of norovirus, multiple challenge studies must be analysed jointly, to compare their differences and describe how virus infectivity and host susceptibility vary. Since challenge studies can only provide a small sample of the diversity in the natural norovirus population, outbreaks should be exploited as an additional source of information. The present study shows how challenge studies and 'natural experiments' can be combined in a multilevel dose response framework. Infectivity and pathogenicity are analysed by secretor status as a host factor, and genogroup as a pathogen factor. Infectivity, characterized as the estimated mean infection risk when exposed to 1 genomic copy (qPCR unit)is 0.28 for GI norovirus, and 0.076 for GII virus, both in Se⁺ subjects. The corresponding risks of acute enteric illness are somewhat lower, about 0.2 (GI) and 0.035 (GII), in outbreaks. Se^- subjects are protected, with substantially lower risks of infection (0.00007 and 0.015 at a dose of 1 GC of GI and GII virus, respectively). The present study shows there is considerable variability in risk of infection and especially risk of acute symptoms following infection with norovirus. These challenge and outbreak data consistently indicate high infectivity among secretor positives and protection in secretor negatives.

Assessment of health risks from recreational exposure to Giardia and Cryptosporidium in coastal bathing waters

Some Brazilian beaches are impacted by raw or poorly treated sewage. Thus, users (beachgoers, sports people, and children) are exposed to pathogens, which pose health concerns. This study aimed to estimate the probability of infection and disease by Giardia and Cryptosporidium, using the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), for three groups of bathers: children, adults, and open water swimmers. The concentrations of (oo)cysts were taken from a study run by CETESB (Environmental Company of Sao Paulo State) throughout 2011 and 2012, in which 203 samples were collected monthly and analyzed for (oo)cysts of Giardia and Cryptosporidium. Giardia was present in 43% of the samples, while Cryptosporidium in 13%. Infection probability was higher in beaches with more positive samples for Giardia cysts for the group of open water swimmers. In some cases, the highest annual risk obtained for giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis was 2.4 × 10^-1 and 8.9 × 10^-3 for open water swimmers, respectively, exceeding the incidence results found in the epidemiological study run in summer of 1999 in São Paulo state coast. The results bring insights to improve environmental quality in order to protect tourists' and residents' wellbeing.

Environmental and Adaptive Changes Necessitate a Paradigm Shift for Indicators of Fecal Contamination

Changes in the occurrence, distribution, and seasonal variation of waterborne pathogens due to global climate change may increase the risk of human exposure to these microorganisms, thus heightening the need for more reliable surveillance systems. Routine monitoring of drinking water supplies and recreational waters is performed using fecal indicator microorganisms, such as Escherichia coli , Enterococcus spp., and coliphages. However, the presence and numbers of these indicators, especially E. coli and Enterococcus spp., do not correlate well with those of other pathogens, especially enteric viruses, which are a major cause of waterborne outbreaks associated with contaminated water and food, and recreational use of lakes, ponds, rivers, and estuarine waters. For that reason, there is a growing need for a surveillance system that can detect and quantify viral pathogens directly in water sources to reduce transmission of pathogens associated with fecal transmission. In this review, we present an updated overview of relevant waterborne enteric viruses that we believe should be more commonly screened to better evaluate water quality and to determine the safety of water use and reuse and of epidemiological data on viral outbreaks. We also discuss current methodologies that are available to detect and quantify these viruses in water resources. Finally, we highlight challenges associated with virus monitoring. The information presented in this review is intended to aid in the assessment of human health risks due to contact with water sources, especially since current environmental and adaptive changes may be creating the need for a paradigm shift for indicators of fecal contamination.

Human Health Risks Associated with Recreational Waters: Preliminary Approach of Integrating Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment with Microbial Source Tracking

Gastrointestinal (GI) illness risks associated with exposure to waters impacted by human and nonhuman fecal sources were estimated using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Microbial source tracking (MST) results had identified Escherichia coli (E. coli) contributors to the waterbody as human and unidentified (10%), cattle and domestic animals (25%), and wildlife (65%) in a rural watershed. The illness risks associated with ingestion during recreation were calculated by assigning reference pathogens for each contributing source and using pathogen dose–response relationships. The risk of GI illness was calculated for a specific sampling site with a geometric mean of E. coli of 163 colony forming units (cfu) 100 mL−1, and the recreational standard of E. coli, 126 cfu 100 mL−1. While the most frequent sources of fecal indicator bacteria at the sampling site were nonhuman, the risk of illness from norovirus, the reference pathogen representing human waste, contributed the greatest risk to human health. This study serves as a preliminary review regarding the potential for incorporating results from library-dependent MST to inform a QMRA for recreational waters. The simulations indicated that identifying the sources contributing to the bacterial impairment is critical to estimate the human health risk associated with recreation in a waterbody.