Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Gene-environment correlation: the role of family environment in academic development

Academic achievement is partly heritable and highly polygenic. However, genetic effects on academic achievement are not independent of environmental processes. We investigated whether aspects of the family environment mediated genetic effects on academic achievement across development. Our sample included 5151 children who participated in the Twins Early Development Study, as well as their parents and teachers. Data on academic achievement and family environments (parenting, home environments, and geocoded indices of neighbourhood characteristics) were available at ages 7, 9, 12 and 16. We computed educational attainment polygenic scores (PGS) and further separated genetic effects into cognitive and noncognitive PGS. Three core findings emerged. First, aspects of the family environment, but not the wider neighbourhood context, consistently mediated the PGS effects on achievement across development-accounting for up to 34.3% of the total effect. Family characteristics mattered beyond socio-economic status. Second, family environments were more robustly linked to noncognitive PGS effects on academic achievement than cognitive PGS effects. Third, when we investigated whether environmental mediation effects could also be observed when considering differences between siblings, adjusting for family fixed effects, we found that environmental mediation was nearly exclusively observed between families. This is consistent with the proposition that family environmental contexts contribute to academic development via passive gene-environment correlation processes or genetic nurture. Our results show how parents tend to shape environments that foster their children's academic development partly based on their own genetic disposition, particularly towards noncognitive skills, rather than responding to each child's genetic disposition.

The effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy processes of regulatory, voluntary and partnership policies to improve food environments: an evidence synthesis

Background

Dietary factors are among the largest and costliest drivers of chronic diseases in England. As a response, the government implements a range of population interventions to promote healthy diets by targeting food environments.

Objectives

This study aimed to conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy process of real-world evaluations of national and state policies on improving food environments, with a focus on whether they were regulatory, voluntary or partnership approaches.

Data sources

Fourteen relevant English-language databases were searched in November 2020 for studies published between 2010 and 2020.

Methods

Six separate evidence reviews were conducted to assess the evidence of effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy processes of policies to improve food environments.

Results

A total of 483 primary research evaluations and 14 evidence syntheses were included. The study reveals considerable geographic, methodological and other imbalances across the literature, with, for example, 81% of publications focusing only on 12 countries. The systematic reviews also reveal the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reviewed regulatory approaches designed to improve health, consumer behaviour and food environment outcomes while public-private partnerships and voluntary approaches to improve diets via reformulation, advertising and promotion restrictions or other changes to the environment were limited in their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The study also revealed key enabling and impeding factors across regulatory, voluntary and public-private partnership approaches.

Conclusion

From the available evidence reviewed, this study finds that regulatory approaches appear most effective at improving the food environment, and voluntary agreements and partnerships have limited effectiveness. These findings should be carefully considered in future public health policy development, as should the findings of geographic imbalance in the evidence and inadequate representation of equity dimensions across the policy evaluations. We find that food policies are at times driven by factors other than the evidence and shaped by compromise and pragmatism. Food policy should be first and foremost designed and driven by the evidence of greatest effectiveness to improve food environments for healthier diets.

Limitations

This was a complex evidence synthesis due to its scope and some policy evaluations may have been missed as the literature searches did not include specific policy names. The literature was limited to studies published in English from 2010 to 2020, potentially missing studies of interest.

Future work

Priorities include the need for guidance for appraising risk of bias and quality of non-clinical studies, for reporting policy characteristics in evaluations, for supporting evaluations of real-world policies equitably across geographic regions, for capturing equity dimensions in policy evaluations, and for guideline development for quality and risk of bias of policy evaluations.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020170963.

Funding

This award project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128607) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 8. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Socioeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Hip Fracture Incidence: A Comprehensive Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture incidence is rising globally, making it crucial to understand the demographic factors that influence their occurrence for targeted healthcare interventions. This study focuses on examining the determinants of hip fracture incidence, particularly socioeconomic status, body mass index (BMI), and gender.

METHODS

The study utilised data from 570 patients recorded in the 2023 National Hip Fracture Database Audit tool. Socioeconomic status was assessed through the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), based on patient postcodes. The analysis aimed to explore correlations between socioeconomic status, BMI, gender, and the incidence and types of hip fractures.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that the majority of hip fractures occurred in individuals from the lowest socioeconomic deciles, with a statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) between lower socioeconomic status and higher fracture incidence. Gender-specific disparities were observed, with males experiencing fractures at younger ages and presenting with different fracture types compared to females. Additionally, lower BMI was significantly associated with a higher likelihood of certain fracture types (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights the substantial influence of socioeconomic status, gender, and BMI on hip fracture incidence and typology. These results indicate the need for targeted prevention strategies and health policies aimed at mitigating hip fracture risks in socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Understanding these factors can enable healthcare providers to allocate resources and interventions more effectively, reducing the incidence and impact of hip fractures in deprived areas.

Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy

BACKGROUND

There are not enough GPs in England. Access to general practice and continuity of care are declining.

AIM

To investigate whether practice characteristics are associated with life expectancy of practice populations.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A cross-sectional ecological study of patient life expectancy from 2015-2019.

METHOD

Selection of independent variables was based on conceptual frameworks describing general practice's influence on outcomes. Sixteen non-correlated variables were entered into multivariable weighted regression models: population characteristics (Index of Multiple Deprivation, region, % White ethnicity, and % on diabetes register); practice organisation (total NHS payments to practices expressed as payment per registered patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs, GP registrars, advanced nurse practitioners, other nurses, and receptionists per 1000 patients); access (% seen on the same day); clinical performance (% aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease vaccinated against flu, % with diabetes in glycaemic control, and % with coronary heart disease on antiplatelet therapy); and the therapeutic relationship (% continuity).

RESULTS

Deprivation was strongly negatively associated with life expectancy. Regions outside London and White ethnicity were associated with lower life expectancy. Higher payment per patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients, continuity, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease having the flu vaccination, and % with diabetes with glycaemic control were associated with higher life expectancy; the % being seen on the same day was associated with higher life expectancy in males only. The variable aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked was a negative predictor in females.

CONCLUSION

The number of GPs, continuity of care, and access in England are declining, and it is worrying that these features of general practice were positively associated with life expectancy.

Subnational inequalities in years of life lost and associations with socioeconomic factors in pre-pandemic Europe, 2009-19: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Health inequalities have been associated with shorter lifespans. We aimed to investigate subnational geographical inequalities in all-cause years of life lost (YLLs) and the association between YLLs and socioeconomic factors, such as household income, risk of poverty, and educational attainment, in countries within the European Economic Area (EEA) before the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this ecological study, we extracted demographic and socioeconomic data from Eurostat for 1390 small regions and 285 basic regions for 32 countries in the EEA, which was complemented by a time-trend analysis of subnational regions within the EEA. Age-standardised YLL rates per 100 000 population were estimated from 2009 to 2019 based on methods from the Global Burden of Disease study. Geographical inequalities were assessed using the Gini coefficient and slope index of inequality. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed by investigating the association between socioeconomic factors (educational attainment, household income, and risk of poverty) and YLLs in 2019 using negative binomial mixed models.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2019, YLLs lowered in almost all subnational regions. The Gini coefficient of YLLs across all EEA regions was 14·2% (95% CI 13·6-14·8) for females and 17·0% (16·3 to 17·7) for males. Relative geographical inequalities in YLLs among women were highest in the UK (Gini coefficient 11·2% [95% CI 10·1-12·3]) and among men were highest in Belgium (10·8% [9·3-12·2]). The highest YLLs were observed in subnational regions with the lowest levels of educational attainment (incident rate ratio [IRR] 1·19 [1·13-1·26] for females; 1·22 [1·16-1·28] for males), household income (1·35 [95% CI 1·19-1·53]), and the highest poverty risk (1·25 [1·18-1·34]).

INTERPRETATION

Differences in YLLs remain within, and between, EEA countries and are associated with socioeconomic factors. This evidence can assist stakeholders in addressing health inequities to improve overall disease burden within the EEA.

FUNDING

Research Council of Norway; Development, and Innovation Fund of Hungary; Norwegian Institute of Public Medicine; and COST Action 18218 European Burden of Disease Network.

Food portion sizes: trends and drivers in an obesogenic environment

The prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults has increased worldwide. A strong environmental factor contributing to the obesity epidemic is food portion size (PS). This review evaluates the current evidence linking food PS to obesity, examines the effects of PS on energy intake (EI), and discusses the drivers of food PS selection. The leading causes of the rise in PS include globalisation, intensive farming methods, the impact of World War II, due to shortage of staple foods, and the notion of 'waste not, want not'. Large PS of energy-dense foods may stimulate overconsumption, leading to high EI levels. However, the studies have not shown a cause-and-effect relationship, due to confounding factors. Important mechanisms explaining the attractiveness of larger PS leading to higher EI levels are value for money, portion distortion, labels on food packaging, and tableware. Consumers depend on external rather than internal PS cues to guide consumption, irrespective of satiety levels. Further research is recommended on food consumption patterns to inform policymakers and provide information and insights about changes in diet.

Antiplatelet Treatment Patterns and Outcomes for Secondary Stroke Prevention in the United Kingdom

INTRODUCTION

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Antiplatelet therapies are recommended to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (IS/TIA). This study evaluated outpatient antiplatelet treatment patterns and outcomes for secondary stroke prevention (SSP) among UK adults without atrial fibrillation who were hospitalized for IS/TIA.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study utilized data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics data (01/01/2011-30/06/2019). Treatment patterns included type and duration of treatments. Treatment outcomes included IS, myocardial infarction, major bleeding, and cardiovascular-related and all-cause mortality. Descriptive statistics were reported.

RESULTS

Of 9270 patients, 13.9% (1292) might not receive antithrombotic therapy within 90 days of hospital discharge. Of 7978 patients who received antiplatelet therapies, most used clopidogrel (74.8%) or aspirin (16.7%) single antiplatelet therapy and clopidogrel + aspirin dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT, 5.9%). At 1-year post-hospitalization, 36.9, 43.3, and 35.1% of those receiving these treatments discontinued them, respectively, and of the patients initiating DAPT, 62.3% switched to single antiplatelet therapy. At 1-year post-discharge, the incidence rate (per 100 person-years) of IS, myocardial infarction, major bleeding, cardiovascular-related mortality, and all-cause mortality among the treated were 6.5, 0.7, 4.1, 5.0, and 7.3, respectively, and among the untreated were 14.9, 0.7, 8.6, 28.1, and 39.8, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United Kingdom, 13.9% of patients hospitalized for stroke might not have any antiplatelet treatment to prevent secondary stroke; among the treated, clopidogrel, aspirin, and DAPT were commonly used. These study findings suggest that improved anti-thrombotic therapies for long-term SSP treatment are needed, which may lead to higher treatment and persistence rates and, therefore, improved outcomes in this population.

Regional Variation in the Clinical Practice and Prognosis in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in Japan - A Report From the Japanese Registry of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (JROADHF)

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to clarify the regional variations in clinical practice and the prognosis of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in Japan using the Japanese Registry of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (JROADHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We recruited data of hospitalized patients with HFrEF (n=4,329) from the JROADHF. The patients were divided into 6 groups based on the region of Japan where they were hospitalized: Hokkaido-Tohoku (n=504), Kanto (n=958), Chubu (n=779), Kinki (n=902), Chugoku-Shikoku (n=446), and Kyushu (n=740). We compared the patients' characteristics, including etiology of HF and prognosis after discharge. The age of the patients was lowest in the Kanto and Kinki regions. In contrast, there were no differences in the prevalence of comorbidities, levels of B-type natriuretic peptide, or left ventricular EF among the 6 groups. Post-discharge cardiospecific prognosis, specifically, the composite of cardiac death or HF hospitalization, cardiac death, and HF hospitalization, was comparable among the 6 regions.

CONCLUSIONS

There were no differences in cardiospecific prognosis in patients with HFrEF among the 6 regions in Japan.

Neighbourhood natural space and the narrowing of socioeconomic inequality in years of life lost: a cross-sectional ecological analysis of the Scottish Burden of Disease

BACKGROUND

Natural space is associated with reduced risk of, and narrower socioeconomic inequalities in, diseases that affect older populations, and some contributors to premature mortality in younger individuals. Burden of disease measures such as years of life lost (YLL) are influenced by premature poor health and death. We hypothesised some association between natural space and both rates of and inequalities in YLL might be present.

METHODS

The outcome data were the YLL component from Scottish Burden of Disease 2016, provided at small-area level (datazone) for males and females under 65 years of age in Scotland, UK. Exposure variables were the percentages of land cover within each datazone defined as 'natural space' (NS), and 'natural space and private gardens' (NSG). Together with a measure of area income deprivation, these were fitted in a multilevel Poisson model accounting for intra-datazone level variation, and spatial autocorrelation between datazones.

RESULTS

An increased percentage cover of NSG was associated with lower YLL in males (incident rate ratio (IRR) 0.993, 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.989 to 0.997) and females (IRR 0.993, CrI 0.987 to 0.998); each 10% increase of natural space cover was associated with a 7% decrease in the incidence rate. An increased amount of natural space within local areas was associated with reduced disparity in YLL between the most and least income deprived areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The health benefits of natural space also apply when indicators sensitive to health events at younger ages are used. An increased amount of natural space within local areas has the potential to reduce the disparity in YLL between the most and least income deprived areas-the 'equigenic' effect.

The magnitude and importance of perceived health dimensions define effective tailor-made health-promoting interventions per targeted socioeconomic group

Recent insights and developments on health and society urge a critical look at the positive relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and health. We challenge the notions that it is sufficient to distinguish only between two groups of SES (low and high) and that only overall health is taken into account. A new grouping of SES was developed based on both income and education, resulting in six SES groups. Health was defined in terms of a new positive health concept, operationalized into six health dimensions generating a measure of total general health (TGH). Next, six socioeconomic and demographic determinants of health were included. Linear regression, T-tests and one-way ANOVA were applied to investigate the relationships in a Dutch sample. A subjective way to measure health was applied: self-rated health (SRH). As a result, four out of six dimensions of health determined TGH: bodily functions, daily functioning, quality of life, and social and societal participation. Three out of six socioeconomic and demographic determinants impacted TGH: housing situation, age, and difficulties meeting financial obligations. While this is the general picture for the entire sample, there were interesting similarities and differences between the six SES groups. The similarities lie in the positive impact of the evaluation of bodily functions and daily functioning on TGH in all SES groups. The other dimensions affected TGH in some groups, and some dimensions only in one SES group. None of the socioeconomic and demographic determinants affected TGH in all SES groups. New insights on health inequalities are provided. It is concluded, first that the well-known positive relationship between SES and health is confirmed in this study. Second, further refining the health concept into six dimensions provides more detailed insights on which dimensions impact health the most. The subjective approach applied offers more refined information to better understand which health issues really matter to people. This yields new insights to develop tailor-made interventions aimed at increasing healthy behaviour in specific societal groups.

Index of multiple deprivation contributed to common psychiatric disorders: A systematic review and comprehensive analysis

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have been conducted to explore the interaction effects of social environmental and genetic factors on the risks of common psychiatric disorders.

METHODS

56,613-106,695 individuals were collected from the UK Biobank cohort. Logistic or liner regression models were first used to evaluate the associations of index of multiple deprivation (IMD) with bipolar disorder (BD), depression and anxiety in UK Biobank cohort. Then, for the significant IMD associated with BD, depression and anxiety, genome-wide gene-environment interaction study (GWEIS) was performed by PLINK 2.0.

RESULT

Totally, the higher levels of IMD were significantly associated with higher risks of BD, depression and anxiety. For BD, GWEIS identified multiple significant SNPs interacting with IMD, such as rs75182167 for income and rs111841503 for education. For depression and anxiety, GWEIS found significant SNPs interacting with income and education, such as rs147013419 for income and rs142366753 for education.

CONCLUSION

Social environmental deprivations contributed to the risks of psychiatric disorders. Besides, we reported multiple candidate genetic loci interacting with IMD, providing novel insights into the biological mechanism.

Novel Implementation Strategy to Electronically Screen and Signpost Patients to Health Behavior Apps: Mixed Methods Implementation Study (OptiMine Study)

BACKGROUND

Behavior change apps have the potential to provide individual support on a population scale at low cost, but they face numerous barriers to implementation. Electronic health records (EHRs) in acute care hospitals provide a valuable resource for identifying patients at risk, who may benefit from behavior change apps. A novel, emerging implementation strategy is to use digital technologies not only for providing support to help-seeking individuals but also for signposting patients at risk to support services (also called proactive referral in the United States).

OBJECTIVE

The OptiMine study aimed to increase the reach of behavior change apps by implementing electronic signposting for smoking cessation and alcohol reduction in a large, at-risk population that was identified through an acute care hospital EHR.

METHODS

This 3-phase, mixed methods implementation study assessed the acceptability, feasibility, and reach of electronic signposting to behavior change apps by using a hospital's EHR system to identify patients who are at risk. Phase 1 explored the acceptability of the implementation strategy among the patients and staff through focus groups. Phase 2 investigated the feasibility of using the hospital EHR to identify patients with target risk behaviors and contact them via SMS text message, email, or patient portal. Phase 3 assessed the impact of SMS text messages sent to patients who were identified as smokers or risky drinkers, which signposted them to behavior change apps. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants who clicked on the embedded link in the SMS text message to access information about the apps. The acceptability of the SMS text messages among the patients who had received them was also explored in a web-based survey.

RESULTS

Our electronic signposting strategy-using SMS text messages to promote health behavior change apps to patients at risk-was found to be acceptable and feasible and had good reach. The hospital sent 1526 SMS text messages, signposting patients to either the National Health Service Smokefree or Drink Free Days apps. A total of 13.56% (207/1526) of the patients clicked on the embedded link to the apps, which exceeded our 5% a priori success criterion. Patients and staff contributed to the SMS text message content and delivery approach, which were perceived as acceptable before and after the delivery of the SMS text messages. The feasibility of the SMS text message format was determined and the target population was identified by mining the EHR.

CONCLUSIONS

The OptiMine study demonstrated the proof of concept for this novel implementation strategy, which used SMS text messages to signpost at-risk individuals to behavior change apps at scale. The level of reach exceeded our a priori success criterion in a non-help-seeking population of patients receiving unsolicited SMS text messages, disconnected from hospital visits.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/23669.

Adverse drug reactions, multimorbidity and polypharmacy: a prospective analysis of 1 month of medical admissions

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain the burden and associated cost of adverse drug reactions (ADRs), polypharmacy and multimorbidity through a prospective analysis of all medical admissions to a large university teaching hospital over a 1-month period.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Liverpool University Hospital Foundation National Health Service (NHS) Trust, England.

PARTICIPANTS

All medical admissions with greater than 24-hour stay over a 1-month period.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of admissions due to an ADR and associated mortality, prevalence and association of multimorbidity and polypharmacy with ADRs, and estimated local financial cost of admissions where an ADR was a contributing or main reason for admission with projected costs for NHS in England.

RESULTS

There were 218 identified patient admissions with an ADR giving a prevalence of 18.4%. The majority of these (90.4%) were ADRs that directly resulted in or contributed to admission. ADRs thus accounted for 16.5% of total admissions. Those with an ADR were on average taking more medicines (10.5 vs 7.8, p<0.01) and had more comorbidities than those without an ADR (6.1 vs 5.2, p<0.01). Drugs most commonly implicated were diuretics, steroid inhalers, anticoagulants and antiplatelets, proton pump inhibitors, chemotherapeutic agents and antihypertensives. 40.4% of ADRs were classified avoidable or possibly avoidable. The mortality rate due to an ADR was 0.34%. The average length of stay for those with an ADR was 6 days. Direct 1-month cost to the Trust from ADR admissions was £490 716. Extrapolated nationally, the projected annual cost to the NHS in England is 2.21 billion.

CONCLUSION

The local prevalence of admission and mortality from ADRs is higher than previously reported. Important factors that could be contributing to this include polypharmacy and multimorbidity. ADRs place a significant burden on patients and healthcare services with associated financial implications. Reducing inappropriate polypharmacy should be a major aim for preventing ADRs.

Maternal overweight and obesity during pregnancy: strategies to improve outcomes for women, babies, and children

INTRODUCTION

Women with overweight and obesity, and their children, are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy, birth, and longer term health outcomes, believed to be compounded by excessive gestational weight gain (GWG). Research to date has focused on interventions to reduce excessive GWG through changes to maternal diet and/or lifestyle.

AREAS COVERED

Current clinical recommendations for GWG vary according to a woman's early pregnancy body mass index, based on assumptions that associations between GWG and adverse pregnancy outcomes are causal in nature, and modifiable. While there are small differences in GWG following pregnancy interventions, there is little evidence for clinically relevant effects on pregnancy, birth, and longer term childhood outcomes. This review considers interventional studies targeting women with overweight or obesity to reduce GWG in an effort to improve maternal and infant health, and the current evidence for interventions prior to conception.

EXPERT OPINION

GWG is not modifiable via diet and lifestyle change, and continued efforts to find the 'right' intervention for women with overweight and obesity during pregnancy are unjustified. Researchers should focus on gathering evidence for interventions prior to pregnancy to optimize maternal health and weight to improve pregnancy, birth, and longer term health outcomes associated with obesity.

Changes in life expectancy and disease burden in Norway, 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Estimating risk factor attributable burden - challenges and potential solutions when using the comparative risk assessment methodology

Background

Burden of disease analyses quantify population health and provide comprehensive overviews of the health status of countries or specific population groups. The comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology is commonly used to estimate the share of the burden attributable to risk factors. The aim of this paper is to identify and address some selected important challenges associated with CRA, illustrated by examples, and to discuss ways to handle them. Further, the main challenges are addressed and finally, similarities and differences between CRA and health impact assessments (HIA) are discussed, as these concepts are sometimes referred to synonymously but have distinctly different applications.

Results

CRAs are very data demanding. One key element is the exposure-response relationship described e.g. by a mathematical function. Combining estimates to arrive at coherent functions is challenging due to the large variability in risk exposure definitions and data quality. Also, the uncertainty attached to this data is difficult to account for. Another key issue along the CRA-steps is to define a theoretical minimal risk exposure level for each risk factor. In some cases, this level is evident and self-explanatory (e.g., zero smoking), but often more difficult to define and justify (e.g., ideal consumption of whole grains). CRA combine all relevant information and allow to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) quantifying the proportion of disease burden attributable to exposure. Among many available formulae for PAFs, it is important to use the one that allows consistency between definitions, units of the exposure data, and the exposure response functions. When combined effects of different risk factors are of interest, the non-additive nature of PAFs and possible mediation effects need to be reflected. Further, as attributable burden is typically calculated based on current exposure and current health outcomes, the time dimensions of risk and outcomes may become inconsistent. Finally, the evidence of the association between exposure and outcome can be heterogeneous which needs to be considered when interpreting CRA results.

Conclusions

The methodological challenges make transparent reporting of input and process data in CRA a necessary prerequisite. The evidence for causality between included risk-outcome pairs has to be well established to inform public health practice.

Supermarket/Hypermarket Opportunistic Screening for Atrial Fibrillation (SHOPS-AF): A Mixed Methods Feasibility Study Protocol

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and a key risk factor for ischaemic stroke. Following AF detection, treatment with oral anticoagulation can significantly lower mortality and morbidity rates associated with this risk. The availability of several hand-held devices which can detect AF may enable trained health professionals to adopt AF screening approaches which do not interfere with people’s daily routines. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of a hand-held device (the MyDiagnostick single-lead Electrocardiogram (ECG) sensor) in screening for AF when embedded into the handles of supermarket trolleys. Methods: A mixed methods two-phase approach will be taken. The quantitative first phase will involve the recruitment of 2000 participants from a convenience sample at four large supermarkets with pharmacies. Prospective participants will be asked to conduct their shopping using a trolley embedded with a MyDiagnostick sensor. If the device identifies a participant with AF, the in-store pharmacist will be dispatched to take a manual pulse measurement and a static control sensor reading and offer a cardiologist consultation referral. When the sensor does not detect AF, a researcher will confirm the reading with a manual pulse measurement. ECGs will be compiled, and the sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values will be determined. A qualitative second phase will consist of semi-structured interviews carried out with those pharmacists and store managers in-store during the running of the trial period. These will explore the perceptions of staff regarding the merits of embedding sensors in the handles of supermarket trolleys to detect AF. Conclusion: This feasibility study will inform a larger future definitive trial.

Do recommended interventions widen or narrow inequalities in musculoskeletal health? An equity-focussed systematic review of differential effectiveness

Background

It is unclear whether seven interventions recommended by Public Health England for preventing and managing common musculoskeletal conditions reduce or widen health inequalities in adults with musculoskeletal conditions.

Methods

We used citation searches of Web of Science (date of ‘parent publication’ for each intervention to April 2021) to identify original research articles reporting subgroup or moderator analyses of intervention effects by social stratifiers defined using the PROGRESS-Plus frameworks. Randomized controlled trials, controlled before-after studies, interrupted time series, systematic reviews presenting subgroup/stratified analyses or meta-regressions, individual participant data meta-analyses and modelling studies were eligible. Two reviewers independently assessed the credibility of effect moderation claims using Instrument to assess the Credibility of Effect Moderation Analyses. A narrative approach to synthesis was used (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42019140018).

Results

Of 1480 potentially relevant studies, seven eligible analyses of single trials and five meta-analyses were included. Among these, we found eight claims of potential differential effectiveness according to social characteristics, but none that were judged to have high credibility.

Conclusions

In the absence of highly credible evidence of differential effectiveness in different social groups, and given ongoing national implementation, equity concerns may be best served by investing in monitoring and action aimed at ensuring fair access to these interventions.

Trends in the Annual Consultation Incidence and Prevalence of Low Back Pain and Osteoarthritis in England from 2000 to 2019: Comparative Estimates from Two Clinical Practice Databases

Purpose

To compare estimates of annual person-consulting incidence and prevalence of low back pain (LBP) and osteoarthritis for two national English electronic health record databases (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum and CPRD GOLD).

Patients and Methods

Retrospective, population-based, longitudinal cohort study. LBP and osteoarthritis cases were defined using established codelists in people aged ≥15 and ≥45 years, respectively. Incident cases were new recorded cases in a given calendar year with no relevant consultation in the previous 3 years (denominator = exact person-time in the same calendar year for the at-risk population). Prevalent cases were individuals with ≥1 consultation for the condition of interest recorded in a given calendar year, irrespective of prior consultations for the same condition (denominator = all patients with complete registration history in the previous 3 years). We estimated age-sex standardised incidence and annual (12-month period) prevalence for both conditions in 2000–2019, overall, and by sex, age group, and region.

Results

Standardised incidence and prevalence of LBP from Aurum were lower than those from GOLD until 2014, after which estimates were similar. Both databases showed recent declines in incidence and prevalence of LBP: declines began earlier in GOLD (after 2012–2014) than Aurum (after 2014–2015). Standardised incidence (after 2011) and prevalence of osteoarthritis (after 2003) were higher in Aurum than GOLD and showed different trends: incidence and prevalence were stable or increasing in Aurum, decreasing in GOLD. Stratified estimates in CPRD Aurum suggested consistently higher occurrence among women, older age groups, and those living in the north of England.

Conclusion

Comparative analyses of two English databases produced conflicting estimates and trends for two common musculoskeletal conditions. Aurum estimates appeared more consistent with external sources and may be useful for monitoring population musculoskeletal health and healthcare demand, but they remain sensitive to analytic decisions and data quality.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance.

RESULTS

Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Diet Behaviour Among UK Adults: A Longitudinal Analysis of the HEBECO Study

COVID-19 pandemic restrictions impacted dietary habits during the initial months of the pandemic, but long-term effects are unclear. In this longitudinal study, self-selected UK adults (n = 1,733, 71.1% female, 95.7% white ethnicity) completed three online surveys (May-June, August-September, and November-December 2020, with a retrospective pre-pandemic component in the baseline survey), self-reporting sociodemographics, lifestyle, and behaviours, including high fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS) snacks, HFSS meals, and fruit and vegetable (FV) intake. Data were analysed using generalised estimating equations. Monthly HFSS snacks portion intake increased from pre-pandemic levels (48.3) in May-June (57.6, p < 0.001), decreased in August-September (43.7, p < 0.001), before increasing back to pre-pandemic levels in November-December (49.2, p < 0.001). A total of 48.5% self-reported increased [25.9 (95% confidence interval: 24.1, 27.8)] and 47.7% self-reported decreased [24.1 (22.4, 26.0)] monthly HFSS snacks portion intakes in November-December compared with pre-pandemic levels. Monthly HFSS meals portion intake decreased from pre-pandemic levels (7.1) in May-June (5.9, p < 0.001), was maintained in August-September (5.9, p = 0.897), and then increased again in November-December (6.6, p < 0.001) to intakes that remained lower than pre-pandemic levels (p = 0.007). A total of 35.2% self-reported increased [4.8 (4.3, 5.3)] and 44.5% self-reported decreased [5.1 (4.6, 5.6)] monthly HFSS meals portion intakes in November-December compared with pre-pandemic levels. The proportion meeting FV intake recommendations was stable from pre-pandemic through to August-September (70%), but decreased in November-December 2020 (67%, p = 0.034). Increased monthly HFSS snacks intake was associated with female gender, lower quality of life, and - in a time - varying manner - older age and higher HFSS meals intake. Increased monthly HFSS meals intake was associated with female gender, living with adults only, and higher HFSS snacks intake. Reduced FV intake was associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and lower physical activity. These results suggest large interindividual variability in dietary change during the first year of the pandemic, with important public health implications in individuals experiencing persistent increases in unhealthy diet choices, associated with BMI, gender, quality of life, living conditions, physical activity, and other dietary behaviours.

Polygenic risk for coronary artery disease in the Scottish and English population

Background

Epidemiological studies have repeatedly observed a markedly higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in Scotland as compared to England. Up to now, it is unclear whether environmental or genetic factors might explain this phenomenon.

Methods

Using UK Biobank (UKB) data, we assessed CAD risk, based on the Framingham risk score (FRS) and common genetic variants, to explore the respective contribution to CAD prevalence in Scotland (n = 31,963) and England (n = 317,889). We calculated FRS based on sex, age, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), systolic blood pressure (SBP), antihypertensive medication, smoking status, and diabetes. We determined the allele frequency of published genome-wide significant risk CAD alleles and a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) for quantifying genetic CAD risk.

Results

Prevalence of CAD was 16% higher in Scotland as compared to England (8.98% vs. 7.68%, P < 0.001). However, the FRS only predicted a marginally higher CAD risk (less than 1%) in Scotland (12.5 ± 10.5 vs.12.6 ± 10.6, P = 0.03). Likewise, the overall number of genome-wide significant variants affecting CAD risk (157.6 ± 7.7 and 157.5 ± 7.7; P = 0.12) and a wGRS for CAD (2.49 ± 0.25 in both populations, P = 0.14) were remarkably similar in the English and Scottish population. Interestingly, we observed substantial differences in the allele frequencies of individual risk variants. Of the previously described 163 genome-wide significant variants studied here, 35 variants had higher frequencies in Scotland, whereas 37 had higher frequencies in England (P < 0.001 each).

Conclusions

Neither the traditional risk factors included in the FRS nor a genetic risk score (GRS) based on established common risk alleles explained the higher CAD prevalence in Scotland. However, we observed marked differences in the distribution of individual risk alleles, which emphasizes that even geographically and ethnically closely related populations may display relevant differences in the genetic architecture of a common disease.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-02398-4.

Acute myocardial infarction on YouTube - is it all fake news?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Internet is a fundamental aspect of health information. However, the absence of quality control encourages misinformation. We aim to assess the relevance and quality of acute myocardial infarction videos shared on YouTube (www.youtube.com) in Portuguese.

METHODS

We analyzed 1,000 videos corresponding to the first 100 search results on YouTube using the following terms (in Portuguese): "cardiac + arrest"; "heart + attack"; "heart + thrombosis"; "coronary + thrombosis"; "infarction - brain", "myocardial + infarction" and "acute + myocardial + infarction". Irrelevant (n=316), duplicated (n=345), without audio (n=24) or non-Portuguese (n=106) videos were excluded. Included videos were assessed according to source, topic, target audience and scientific inaccuracies. Quality of information was assessed using The Health on the Net Code (HONCode from 0 to 8) and DISCERN (from 0 to 5) scores - the higher the score, the better the quality.

RESULTS

242 videos were included. The majority were from independent instructors (n=95, 39.0%) and were addressed to the general population (n=202, 83.5%). One third of the videos (n=79) contained inaccuracies while scientific society and governmental/health institution videos had no inaccuracies. The mean video quality was poor or moderate; only one video was good quality without any inaccuracies. Governmental/health institutions were the source with the best quality videos (HONCode 4±1, DISCERN 2±1).

CONCLUSIONS

One third of the videos had irrelevant information and one third of the relevant ones contained inaccuracies. The average video quality was poor; therefore it is important to define strategies to improve the quality of online health information.

Is lifestyle change around retirement associated with better physical performance in older age?: insights from a longitudinal cohort

A growing evidence base links individual lifestyle factors to physical performance in older age, but much less is known about their combined effects, or the impact of lifestyle change. In a group of 937 participants from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, we examined their number of lifestyle risk factors at 53 and 60-64 years in relation to their physical performance at 60-64, and the change in number of risk factors between these ages in relation to change in physical performance. At both assessments, information about lifestyle (physical activity, smoking, diet) was obtained via self-reports and height and weight were measured. Each participant's number of lifestyle risk factors out of: obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2); inactivity (no leisure time physical activity over previous month); current smoking; poor diet (diet quality score in bottom quarter of distribution) was determined at both ages. Physical performance: measured grip strength, chair rise and standing balance times at both ages and conditional change (independent of baseline) in physical performance outcomes from 53 to 60-64 were assessed. There were some changes in the pattern of lifestyle risk factors between assessments: 227 (24%) participants had fewer risk factors by age 60-64; 249 (27%) had more. Reductions in risk factors were associated with better physical performance at 60-64 and smaller declines over time (all p < 0.05); these associations were robust to adjustment. Strategies to support reduction in number of lifestyle risk factors around typical retirement age may have beneficial effects on physical performance in early older age.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version of this article (10.1007/s10433-021-00607-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Rising incidence of colorectal cancer in individuals younger than 50 years and increasing mortality from rectosigmoid cancer in England

AIM

The aim was to describe changes in incidence and mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC) in England by analysing data available from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS, 2001-2017).

METHODS

Data analysis was undertaken to interpret trends and patterns in age-standardized incidence and death rates from CRC, including sub-analyses by six age groups (0-24, 25-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+) and three sites of cancer-colonic, rectosigmoid and rectal.

RESULTS

Overall CRC incidence remained relatively stable-70.1 cases per 100 000 individuals (95% CI 69.3-71.0) in 2001 and 68.8 cases (95% CI 68.0-69.5) in 2017. Sub-analysis demonstrates a quarter fewer incidence of rectosigmoid cancer (-27%). This is counterbalanced by a 3% rise in colon cancers. The age-standardized incidence rate of CRC increased by 59% in the 25-49 age group. In the over 50s, CRC incidence remained stable, with reductions seen in rectosigmoid cancer (50-59 years, -19%; 60-69, -26%; 70-79, -39%; 80+, -27%). Overall, mortality improved (-18.7%), primarily as a result of the reduction in deaths from colon (-31.6%) and rectal cancers (-25.1%). Deaths from the small incident number of rectosigmoid cancers, however, demonstrated a significant increase overall (+166.7%). Grouped age-standardized death rate analyses showed increasing death rates in the under 50s (+28.3%) compared to declining rates in the over 50s (-15.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a clear trend in increased incidence and mortality in individuals under 50 years old. There is also a trend to increased mortality from rectosigmoid cancer. These findings should have implications for national screening programme extension to under 50s and a call to arms for appropriate identification, staging and treatment of rectosigmoid cancers.

Working-age adults using food banks in England have significantly poorer health and higher rates of mental health conditions than adults in the general population: A cross-sectional quantitative study

Food bank use has risen rapidly in the UK since 2010. The negative health impacts of food insecurity are well-documented, but there is a lack of quantitative research exploring the health of people using food banks, who are most often severely food insecure. To address this gap, this study compares health outcomes between working-age adults using food banks and those in the general population in England, investigating whether adults using food banks are disproportionately affected by poor health, even after accounting for socioeconomic differences. Data from a survey of 598 adults using Trussell Trust food banks in 2016-2017 were merged with data from the Health Survey for England (HSE) from 2016. Outcome variables of interest were: self-rated health, life-limiting health conditions (disability) and self-reported metabolic, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal and mental health conditions. Logistic regression models were used to examine the odds of adults using food banks having health conditions, disability and poor self-rated health compared to the general population. The prevalence rates of poor self-rated health, disability, mental health disorders and musculoskeletal conditions were significantly higher among adults using food banks than the general population (p < .05 for all outcomes). These associations remained after accounting for gender, age, marital status, employment and education. This comparative study highlights the many health disadvantages among adults using food bank compared to the general population. The higher risk of poor self-rated health, disability and mental health conditions was not fully explained by measures of low socioeconomic status. Possible explanations for these findings include: first, that poor health may increase vulnerability to food insecurity, and, in turn, use of food banks; second, that experiences of food insecurity and food bank use may cause declines in health; and third, that food bank use and poor health may be joint outcomes arising from the last decade of austerity in the UK.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Weight and BMI among UK Adults: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data from the HEBECO Study

COVID-19-related restrictions impacted weight and weight-related factors during the initial months of the pandemic. However, longitudinal analyses are scarce. An online, longitudinal study was conducted among self-selected UK adults (n = 1818), involving three surveys (May-June, August-September, November-December 2020), covering anthropometric, sociodemographic, COVID-19-related and behavioural measures. Data were analysed using generalised estimating equations. Self-reported average weight/body mass index (BMI) significantly increased between the May-June period and the August-September period (74.95 to 75.33 kg/26.22 kg/m2 to 26.36kg/m2, p < 0.001, respectively), and then significantly decreased to November-December (to 75.06 kg/26.27 kg/m2, p < 0.01), comparable to May-June levels (p = 0.274/0.204). However, there was great interindividual variation, 37.0%/26.7% increased (average 3.64 kg (95% confidence interval: 3.32, 3.97)/1.64 kg/m2 (1.49, 1.79)), and 34.5%/26.3% decreased (average 3.59 kg (3.34, 3.85)/1.53 kg/m2 (1.42, 1.63)) weight/BMI between May-June and November-December. Weight/BMI increase was significantly negatively associated with initial BMI, and positively associated with monthly high fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) snacks intake and alcohol consumption, and for BMI only, older age. Associations were time-varying; lower initial BMI, higher HFSS snacks intake and high-risk alcohol consumption were associated with maintaining weight/BMI increases between August-September and November-December. The average weight/BMI of UK adults fluctuated between May-June and November-December 2020. However, the substantial interindividual variation in weight/BMI trajectories indicates long-term health impacts from the pandemic, associated with food and alcohol consumption.

Doctors have an ethical obligation to ask patients about food insecurity: what is stopping us?

Inadequate diet is the leading risk factor for morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, approaches to identifying inadequate diets in clinical practice remain inconsistent, and dietary interventions (on both individual and public health policy levels) frequently focus on facilitating 'healthy choices', with limited emphasis on structural constraints. We examine the ethical implications of introducing a routine question in the medical history about ability to access food. Not collecting data on food security means that clinicians are unable to identify people who may benefit from support on an individual level, unable to consider relevant dietary risk factors for disease and disease progression and unable to monitor population trends and inequalities in dietary access in order to design effective policy interventions. We argue that the current lack of routine screening for food insecurity is inconsistent with our approach to other health behaviours (eg, smoking and alcohol use), as well as with doctors' frequent informal role as gatekeepers to the food aid system, and recent calls for governmental action on food insecurity and health inequalities from individual clinicians and professional bodies. Potential ethical barriers to asking patients about food security are addressed, including concerns about stigma, limiting autonomy, fair resource allocation, unclear professional remits and clinicians' ability to offer effective interventions. We suggest that there is an ethical imperative for doctors to ask patients about their ability to access healthy food. Gathering this data provides a valuable first step in re-framing the social determinants of health as modifiable risks, rather than inevitable inequities.

Socioeconomic disparities in cancer incidence and mortality in England and the impact of age-at-diagnosis on cancer mortality

Background

We identify socioeconomic disparities by region in cancer morbidity and mortality in England for all-cancer and type-specific cancers, and use incidence data to quantify the impact of cancer diagnosis delays on cancer deaths between 2001–2016.

Methods and findings

We obtain population cancer morbidity and mortality rates at various age, year, gender, deprivation, and region levels based on a Bayesian approach. A significant increase in type-specific cancer deaths, which can also vary among regions, is shown as a result of delay in cancer diagnoses. Our analysis suggests increase of 7.75% (7.42% to 8.25%) in female lung cancer mortality in London, as an impact of 12-month delay in cancer diagnosis, and a 3.39% (3.29% to 3.48%) increase in male lung cancer mortality across all regions. The same delay can cause a 23.56% (23.09% to 24.30%) increase in male bowel cancer mortality. Furthermore, for all-cancer mortality, the highest increase in deprivation gap happened in the East Midlands, from 199 (186 to 212) in 2001, to 239 (224 to 252) in 2016 for males, and from 114 (107 to 121) to 163 (155 to 171) for females. Also, for female lung cancer, the deprivation gap has widened with the highest change in the North West, e.g. for incidence from 180 (172 to 188) to 272 (261 to 282), whereas it has narrowed for prostate cancer incidence with the biggest reduction in the South West from 165 (139 to 190) in 2001 to 95 (72 to 117) in 2016.

Conclusions

The analysis reveals considerable disparities in all-cancer and some type-specific cancers with respect to socioeconomic status. Furthermore, a significant increase in cancer deaths is shown as a result of delays in cancer diagnoses which can be linked to concerns about the effect of delay in cancer screening and diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health interventions at regional and deprivation level can contribute to prevention of cancer deaths.

Acute myocardial infarction on YouTube - Is it all fake news?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Internet is a fundamental aspect of health information. However, the absence of quality control encourages misinformation. We aim to assess the relevance and quality of acute myocardial infarction videos shared on YouTube (www.youtube.com) in Portuguese.

METHODS

We analyzed 1,000 videos corresponding to the first 100 search results on YouTube using the following terms (in Portuguese): "cardiac + arrest"; "heart + attack"; "heart + thrombosis"; "coronary + thrombosis"; "infarction - brain", "myocardial + infarction" and "acute + myocardial + infarction". Irrelevant (n=316), duplicated (n=345), without audio (n=24) or non-Portuguese (n=106) videos were excluded. Included videos were assessed according to source, topic, target audience and scientific inaccuracies. Quality of information was assessed using The Health on the Net Code (HONCode from 0 to 8) and DISCERN (from 0 to 5) scores - the higher the score, the better the quality.

RESULTS

242 videos were included. The majority were from independent instructors (n=95, 39.0%) and were addressed to the general population (n=202, 83.5%). One third of the videos (n=79) contained inaccuracies while scientific society and governmental/health institution videos had no inaccuracies. The mean video quality was poor or moderate; only one video was good quality without any inaccuracies. Governmental/health institutions were the source with the best quality videos (HONCode 4±1, DISCERN 2±1).

CONCLUSIONS

One third of the videos had irrelevant information and one third of the relevant ones contained inaccuracies. The average video quality was poor; therefore it is important to define strategies to improve the quality of online health information.

The interaction of ethnicity and deprivation on COVID-19 mortality risk: a retrospective ecological study

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) populations are at an increased risk of developing COVID-19 and consequentially more severe outcomes compared to White populations. The aim of this study was to quantify how much of the disproportionate disease burden can be attributed to ethnicity and deprivation as well as its interaction. An ecological study was conducted using data derived from the Office for National Statistics data at a Local Authority District (LAD) level in England between 1st March and 17th April 2020. The primary analysis examined how age adjusted COVID-19 mortality depends on ethnicity, deprivation, and the interaction between the two using linear regression. The secondary analysis using spatial regression methods allowed for the quantification of the extent of LAD spillover effect of COVID-19 mortality. We find that in LADs with the highest deprivation quartile, where there is a 1 percentage point increase in "Black-African (regression coefficient 2.86; 95% CI 1.08-4.64)", "Black-Caribbean (9.66: 95% CI 5.25-14.06)" and "Bangladeshi (1.95: 95% CI 1.14-2.76)" communities, there is a significantly higher age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality compared to respective control populations. In addition, the spatial regression results indicated positive significant correlation between the age-adjusted mortality in one LAD and the age-adjusted mortality in a neighbouring LAD, suggesting a spillover effect. Our results suggest targeted public health measures to support those who are deprived and belong to BAME communities as well as to encourage restricted movement between different localities to limit disease propagation.

The changing health needs of the UK population

The demographics of the UK population are changing and so is the need for health care. In this Health Policy, we explore the current health of the population, the changing health needs, and future threats to health. Relative to other high-income countries, the UK is lagging on many health outcomes, such as life expectancy and infant mortality, and there is a growing burden of mental illness. Successes exist, such as the striking improvements in oral health, but inequalities in health persist as well. The growth of the ageing population relative to the working-age population, the rise of multimorbidity, and persistent health inequalities, particularly for preventable illness, are all issues that the National Health Service (NHS) will face in the years to come. Meeting the challenges of the future will require an increased focus on health promotion and disease prevention, involving a more concerted effort to understand and tackle the multiple social, environmental, and economic factors that lie at the heart of health inequalities. The immediate priority of the NHS will be to mitigate the wider and long-term health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it must also strengthen its resilience to reduce the impact of other threats to health, such as the UK leaving the EU, climate change, and antimicrobial resistance.

Decreasing trend in the incidence and prevalence of dementia: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The progressive ageing of the population is one of the main socio-demographic phenomena, taking place at a global level. Several recent population-based studies conducted worldwide suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be changing in some countries and areas.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

This systematic review was performed using the methodology proposed by the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews and reported following the PRISMA statement. A structured bibliographic search was performed on the databases PubMed, ISI Web of Science and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. All included studies were qualitatively assessed using the Methodological Evaluation of Observational REsearch (MORE).

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

The bibliographic search yielded 2394 records. Three more articles were retrieved from other sources. A total of ten studies were included, five reported data on a possible reduction in the prevalence of dementia, and five reported data on a possible reduction in its incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The present systematic review focused on the recent observations of a possible decrease in the frequency of dementia and cognitive impairment in some Western countries (USA, UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Iceland) between 1977 and 2014. The included studies have a high heterogeneity in terms of the clinical criteria used to diagnose dementia, and of the criteria used to define the clinical condition preceding dementia, such as isolated cognitive impairment. Moreover, the methodological quality with which they were conducted was also heterogeneous, with scores ranging from 1 to 7 using the MORE tool.

Software application profile: the Rapid Inquiry Facility 4.0: an open access tool for environmental public health tracking

The Rapid Inquiry Facility 4.0 (RIF) is a new user-friendly and open-access tool, developed by the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit (SAHSU), to facilitate environment public health tracking (EPHT) or surveillance (EPHS). The RIF is designed to help public health professionals and academics to rapidly perform exploratory investigations of health and environmental data at the small-area level (e.g. postcode or detailed census areas) in order to identify unusual signals, such as disease clusters and potential environmental hazards, whether localized (e.g. industrial site) or widespread (e.g. air and noise pollution). The RIF allows the use of advanced disease mapping methods, including Bayesian small-area smoothing and complex risk analysis functionalities, while accounting for confounders. The RIF could be particularly useful to monitor spatio-temporal trends in mortality and morbidity associated with cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes and chronic lung diseases, or to conduct local or national studies on air pollution, flooding, low-magnetic fields or nuclear power plants.

Machine learning for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure, acute coronary syndromes and atrial fibrillation: systematic review of validity and clinical utility

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in research for subtype definition and risk prediction, particularly in cardiovascular diseases. No existing ML models are routinely used for cardiovascular disease management, and their phase of clinical utility is unknown, partly due to a lack of clear criteria. We evaluated ML for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure (HF), acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

For ML studies of subtype definition and risk prediction, we conducted a systematic review in HF, ACS and AF, using PubMed, MEDLINE and Web of Science from January 2000 until December 2019. By adapting published criteria for diagnostic and prognostic studies, we developed a seven-domain, ML-specific checklist.

RESULTS

Of 5918 studies identified, 97 were included. Across studies for subtype definition (n = 40) and risk prediction (n = 57), there was variation in data source, population size (median 606 and median 6769), clinical setting (outpatient, inpatient, different departments), number of covariates (median 19 and median 48) and ML methods. All studies were single disease, most were North American (n = 61/97) and only 14 studies combined definition and risk prediction. Subtype definition and risk prediction studies respectively had limitations in development (e.g. 15.0% and 78.9% of studies related to patient benefit; 15.0% and 15.8% had low patient selection bias), validation (12.5% and 5.3% externally validated) and impact (32.5% and 91.2% improved outcome prediction; no effectiveness or cost-effectiveness evaluations).

CONCLUSIONS

Studies of ML in HF, ACS and AF are limited by number and type of included covariates, ML methods, population size, country, clinical setting and focus on single diseases, not overlap or multimorbidity. Clinical utility and implementation rely on improvements in development, validation and impact, facilitated by simple checklists. We provide clear steps prior to safe implementation of machine learning in clinical practice for cardiovascular diseases and other disease areas.

Predictors of 30-day readmission following hospitalisation with community-acquired pneumonia

Background

There is a paucity of UK data to aid healthcare professionals in predicting which patients hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are at greatest risk of 30-day readmission and to determine which readmissions may occur soonest.

Methods

An analysis of CAP cases admitted to nine UK hospitals participating in the Advancing Quality Pneumonia Programme.

Results

An analysis was performed of 12 157 subjects hospitalised with CAP in the Advancing Quality Programme Database. 26% of those discharged were readmitted within 30 days with readmission predicted by comorbidity including non-metastatic cancer, diabetes with complications and chronic kidney disease. 41% and 66% of readmissions occurred within 7 and 14 days of discharge, respectively. Patients readmitted within 14 days were more likely to have metastatic cancer (6.6% vs 4.5%; p=0.03) compared with those readmitted at 15–30 days.

Conclusions

A quarter of patients hospitalised for CAP are readmitted within 30 days; of those, two-thirds are readmitted within 2 weeks. Further research is required to determine whether such readmissions might be preventable through imple menting measures including in-hospital cross-specialty comorbidity management, convalescence in intermediate care, targeted rehabilitation and advanced care planning.

A profile of a major trauma centre of North West England between 2011 and 2018

This study examined the trends and patterns of major trauma (MT) activities, causes, mortality and survival at the Aintree Major Trauma Centre (MTC), Liverpool, between 2011 and 2018. The number of trauma team activations (TTAs) rose sharply over time (n = 699 in 2013; n = 1522 in 2018). The proportion of TTAs that involved MT patients decreased from 75.1% in 2013 to 67.4% in 2018. The leading cause of MT was a fall from less than 2 m (36%). There has been a fivefold increase in the overall number of trauma procedures between 2011 and 2018. Orthopaedic surgeons have performed 80% of operations (n = 7732), followed by neurosurgeons, oral and maxillofacial surgeons, and general trauma surgeons. Both types of fall (> 2 m and < 2 m) and road traffic accidents were the three leading causes of death during the study period. The observed mortality rates exceeded that of expected rates in years 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2017. The all-cause observed to expected mortality ratio was 1.08 between 2012 and 2018. A change in care for MT patients was not directly associated with improved survival, although the marginally ascending trend line in survival rates between 2012 and 2018 reflects a gradual positive change.

Potential effects of minimum unit pricing at local authority level on alcohol-attributed harms in North West and North East England: a modelling study

Background

In 2018, Scotland implemented a 50p-per-unit minimum unit price for alcohol. Previous modelling estimated the impact of minimum unit pricing for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Decision-makers want to know the potential effects of minimum unit pricing for local authorities in England; the premise of this study is that estimated effects of minimum unit pricing would vary by locality.

Objective

The objective was to estimate the potential effects on mortality, hospitalisations and crime of the implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol at local authority level in England.

Design

This was an evidence synthesis, and used computer modelling using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (local authority version 4.0). This study gathered evidence on local consumption of alcohol from the Health Survey for England, and gathered data on local prices paid from the Living Costs and Food Survey and from market research companies’ actual sales data. These data were linked with local harms in terms of both alcohol-attributable mortality (from the Office for National Statistics) and alcohol-attributable hospitalisations (from Hospital Episode Statistics) for 45 conditions defined by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision. These data were examined for eight age–sex groups split by five Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles. Alcohol-attributable crime data (Office for National Statistics police-recorded crimes and uplifts for unrecorded offences) were also analysed.

Setting

This study was set in 23 upper-tier local authorities in North West England, 12 upper-tier local authorities in the North East region and nine government office regions, and a national summary was conducted.

Participants

The participants were the population of England aged ≥ 18 years.

Intervention

The intervention was setting a local minimum unit price. The base case is 50p per unit of alcohol. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken using minimum unit prices of 30p, 40p, 60p and 70p per unit of alcohol.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were changes in alcohol-attributable deaths, hospitalisations and crime. Savings in NHS costs, changes in alcohol purchasing and consumption, changes in revenue to off-trade and on-trade retailers and changes in the slope index of inequality between most and least deprived areas were also examined.

Results

The modelling has proved feasible at the upper-tier local authority level. The resulting estimates suggest that minimum unit pricing for alcohol at local authority level could be effective in reducing alcohol-attributable deaths, hospitalisations, NHS costs and crime. A 50p minimum unit price for alcohol at local authority level is estimated to reduce annual alcohol-related deaths in the North West region by 205, hospitalisations by 5956 (–5.5%) and crimes by 8528 (–2.5%). These estimated reductions are mostly due to the 5% of people drinking at high-risk levels (e.g. men drinking > 25 pints of beer or five bottles of wine per week, women drinking > 17 pints of beer or 3.5 bottles of wine per week, and who spend around £2500 per year currently on alcohol). Model estimates of impact are bigger in the North West and North East regions than nationally because, currently, more cheap alcohol is consumed in these regions and because there are more alcohol-related deaths and hospitalisations in these areas. A 30p minimum unit price has estimated effects that are ≈ 90% lower than those of a 50p minimum unit price, and a 40p minimum unit price has estimated effects that are ≈ 50% lower. Health inequalities are estimated to reduce with greater health gains in the deprived areas, where more cheap alcohol is purchased and where there are higher baseline harms.

Limitations

The approach requires synthesis of evidence from multiple sources on alcohol consumption; prices paid; and incidence of diseases, mortality and crime. Price elasticities used are from previous UK analysis of price responsiveness rather than specific to local areas. The study has not estimated ‘cross-border effects’, namely travelling to shops outside the region.

Conclusions

The modelling estimates suggest that minimum unit pricing for alcohol at local authority level would be an effective and well-targeted policy, reducing inequalities.

Future work

The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model for Local Authorities framework could be further utilised to examine the local impact of national policies (e.g. tax changes) or local policies (e.g. licensing or identification and brief advice). As evidence emerges from the Scottish minimum unit price implementation, this will further inform estimates of impact in English localities. The methods used to estimate drinking and purchasing patterns in each local authority could also be used for other topics involving unhealthy products affecting public health, for example to estimate local smoking or high-fat, high-salt food consumption patterns.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Investigating the environmental, behavioural, and sociodemographic determinants of attendance at a city-wide public health physical activity intervention: Longitudinal evidence over one year from 185,245 visits

Understanding the determinants of attendance at public health interventions is critical for effective policy development. Most research focuses on individual-level determinants of attendance, while less is known about environmental-level determinants. Data were obtained from the Leeds Let's Get Active public health intervention in Leeds, England. Longitudinal data (April 2015-March 2016) on attendance were obtained for n = 25,745 individuals (n = 185,245 total visits) with baseline data on sociodemographic determinants and lifestyle practices obtained for n = 3621 individuals. This resulted in a total of n = 744,468 days of attendance and non-attendance. Random forests were used to explore the relative importance of the determinants on attendance, while generalised linear models were applied to examine specific associations (n = 3621). The probability that a person will attend more than once, the number of return visits, and the probability that a person will attend on a particular day were investigated. When considering if a person returned to the same leisure centre after one visit, the most influential determinant was the distance from their home. When considering number of return visits overall however, age group was the most influential. While distance to a leisure centre was less important for predicting the number of return visits, the difference between estimates for 300 m and 15,000 m was 7-10 visits per year. Finally, calendar month was the most important determinant of daily attendance. This longitudinal study highlights the importance of both individual and environmental determinants in predicting various aspects of attendance. It has implications for strategies aiming to increase attendance at public health interventions.

The value of a consultant physiotherapist within a primary care musculoskeletal interface service: part of the spinal multidisciplinary team

Background/aims

The national low back pain pathway in the UK suggests practitioners managing patients with spinal pathology should be specifically trained to do so and have the ability to link with tertiary spinal services when required. The aim of this study was to ensure referrals through to a tertiary spinal surgical centre are appropriate and patients get the correct advice early in their management pathway.

Methods

A retrospective review of 700 cases were discussed at a spinal case-based discussion meeting in a primary care interface service, compared to services without this model. A convenience sample of cases were analysed with the consultant physiotherapist and those referred from other allied health professionals into the tertiary spinal surgical centre. Case-based team discussion took place before every referral into the tertiary spinal service, with spinal surgical discussion where required.

Results

Patients referred from other interface services were more likely to require further work-up such as investigations, or be discharged from clinic on their first attendance than those who had been through the case-based discussion.

Conclusions

A consultant physiotherapist working as part of the spinal team of a tertiary referral centre can help advanced practitioners with their clinical decision making to help prevent unnecessary referrals to spinal surgical services.

All change. Has COVID-19 transformed the way we need to plan for a healthier and more equitable food environment?

The food environment has taken on much of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence shows people's relationship and access to the food environment is a determinant of their health and wellbeing, and in relation to prevalence of chronic and non-communicable diseases. The spatial planning system forms part of a whole systems action in shaping the environment in a way that maximises population health gain. While these practices have had varying degrees of success, the sudden introduction and spread of COVID-19, and the responses to it, has forced us to re-examine the utility of current planning practice, particularly the impact on inequalities. In this commentary we aim to explore the post-pandemic role of spatial planning as a mechanism for improving public health by highlight a whole system perspective on the food environment, referring to experiences in Wales as a case study, and concluding with observation on future consumer trends around access to food.

Investigating change in the food environment over 10 years in urban New Zealand: A longitudinal and nationwide geospatial study

BACKGROUND

While it is likely that changing food environments have contributed to the rise in obesity rates, very few studies have explored historical trends in the food environment with little, if any, consideration at a nationwide level. This longitudinal, nationwide, and geospatial study aims to examine change over time in proximity to food environments in all urban areas of New Zealand from 2005 to 2015.

METHOD

This study used high quality food outlet data by area-level deprivation within the three largest urban areas of Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington. We hypothesise that distance and travel time by car to supermarkets and fast-food outlets will have decreased over time with the most notable decreases in distance and time occuring in the most deprived areas of urban New Zealand. Change in major chain "fast-food" and "supermarket" outlets as identified by Territorial Authorities between 2005 and 2015 was analysed through the use of multilevel regression models.

RESULTS

Findings show a decrease in distance and time to both fast-food outlets and supermarkets. The biggest decrease in distance for supermarkets was seen in the most deprived areas.

CONCLUSION

Our findings contrast and add to previous evidence to demonstrate how changes in the food environment are not uniform, varying by area-level deprivation and by city with more equitable access to supermarkets occurring over time.

Self-Abrading Servo Electrode Helmet for Electrical Impedance Tomography

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is a medical imaging technique which has the potential to reduce time to treatment in acute stroke by rapidly differentiating between ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. The potential of these methods has been demonstrated in simulation and phantoms, it has not yet successfully translated to clinical studies, due to high sensitivity to errors in scalp electrode mislocation and poor electrode-skin contact. To overcome these limitations, a novel electrode helmet was designed, bearing 32 independently controlled self-abrading electrodes. The contact impedance was reduced through rotation on an abrasive electrode on the scalp using a combined impedance, rotation and position feedback loop. Potentiometers within each unit measure the electrode tip displacement within 0.1 mm from the rigid helmet body. Characterisation experiments on a large-scale test rig demonstrated that approximately 20 kPa applied pressure and 5 rotations was necessary to achieve the target 5 kΩ contact impedance at 20 Hz. This performance was then replicated in a simplified self-contained unit where spring loaded electrodes are rotated by servo motors. Finally, a 32-channel helmet and controller which sequentially minimised contact impedance and simultaneously located each electrode was built which reduced the electrode application and localisation time to less than five minutes. The results demonstrated the potential of this approach to rapidly apply electrodes in an acute setting, removing a significant barrier for imaging acute stroke with EIT.

Monitoring indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on services for cardiovascular diseases in the UK

OBJECTIVE

To monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19) pandemic to inform on indirect effects.

METHODS

Retrospective serial cross-sectional study in nine UK hospitals using hospital activity data from 28 October 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown) and for the same weeks during 2018-2019. We analysed aggregate data for selected cardiovascular diseases before and during the epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends.

RESULTS

Across nine hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1%-58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2%-53.5%), respectively, compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1-2 weeks before lockdown and fell by 31%-88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances relative reduction (RR) 0.94, 0.93-0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95-0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62-0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57-0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently.

Biomarkers, disability and health care demand

Using longitudinal data from a representative UK panel, we focus on a group of apparently healthy individuals with no history of disability or major chronic health condition at baseline. A latent variable structural equation model is used to analyse the predictive role of latent baseline biological health, indicated by a rich set of biomarkers, and other personal characteristics, in determining the individual's disability state and health service utilisation five years later. We find that baseline biological health affects future health service utilisation very strongly, via progression to functional disability channel. We also find systematic income gradients in future disability risks, with those of higher income experiencing a lower progress to disability. Our model reveals that observed pro-rich inequity in health care utilisation, is driven by the fact that higher-income people tend to make greater use of health care treatment, for any given biological health and disability status; this is despite the lower average need for treatment shown by the negative association of income with both baseline ill biological health and disability progression risk. Factor loadings for latent baseline health show that a broader set of blood-based biomarkers, rather than the current focus mainly on blood pressure, cholesterol and adiposity, may need to be considered for public health screening programs.