Million Death Study Collaborators. Changes in cause-specific neonatal and 1-59-month child mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative survey

Socioeconomic inequality in child health outcomes in India: analyzing trends between 1993 and 2021

BACKGROUND

The health of India's children has improved over the past thirty years. Rates of morbidity and anthropometric failure have decreased. What remains unknown, however, is how those patterns have changed when examined by socioeconomic status. We examine changes in 11 indicators of child health by household wealth and maternal education between 1993 and 2021 to fill this critical gap in knowledge. Doing so could lead to policies that better target the most vulnerable children.

METHODS

We used data from five rounds of India's National Family Health Survey conducted in 1993, 1999, 2006, 2016, and 2021 for this repeated cross-sectional analysis. We studied mother-reported cases of acute respiratory illness and diarrhea, hemoglobin measurements for anemia, and height and weight measurements for anthropometric failure. We examined how the prevalence rates of each outcome changed between 1993 and 2021 by household wealth and maternal education. We repeated this analysis for urban and rural communities.  RESULTS: The socioeconomic gradient in 11 indicators of child health flattened between 1993 and 2021. This was in large part due to large reductions in the prevalence among children in the lowest socioeconomic groups. For most outcomes, the largest reductions occurred before 2016. Yet as of 2021, except for mild anemia, outcome prevalence remained the highest among children in the lowest socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, we show that increases in the prevalence of stunting and wasting between 2016 and 2021 are largely driven by increases in the severe forms of these outcomes among children in the highest socioeconomic groups. This finding underscores the importance of examining child health outcomes by severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite substantial reductions in the socioeconomic gradient in 11 indicators of child health between 1993 and 2021, outcome prevalence remained the highest among children in the lowest socioeconomic groups in most cases. Thus, our findings emphasize the need for a continued focus on India's most vulnerable children.

A tale of two exemplars: the maternal and newborn mortality transitions of two state clusters in India

BACKGROUND

India's progress in reducing maternal and newborn mortality since the 1990s has been exemplary across diverse contexts. This paper examines progress in two state clusters: higher mortality states (HMS) with lower per capita income and lower mortality states (LMS) with higher per capita income.

METHODS

We characterised state clusters' progress in five characteristics of a mortality transition model (mortality levels, causes, health intervention coverage/equity, fertility and socioeconomic development) and examined health policy and systems changes. We conducted quantitative trend analyses, and qualitative document review, interviews and discussions with national and state experts.

RESULTS

Both clusters reduced maternal and neonatal mortality by over two-thirds and half respectively during 2000-2018. Neonatal deaths declined in HMS most on days 3-27, and in LMS on days 0-2. From 2005 to 2018, HMS improved coverage of antenatal care with contents (ANCq), institutional delivery and postnatal care (PNC) by over three-fold. In LMS, ANCq, institutional delivery and PNC rose by 1.4-fold. C-sections among the poorest increased from 1.5% to 7.1% in HMS and 5.6% to 19.4% in LMS.Fewer high-risk births (to mothers <18 or 36+ years, birth interval <2 years, birth order 3+) contributed 15% and 6% to neonatal mortality decline in HMS and LMS, respectively. Socioeconomic development improved in both clusters between 2005 and 2021; HMS saw more rapid increases than LMS in women's literacy (1.5-fold), household electricity (by 2-fold), improved sanitation (3.2-fold) and telephone access (6-fold).India's National (Rural) Health Mission's financial and administrative flexibility allowed states to tailor health system reforms. HMS expanded public health resources and financial schemes, while LMS further improved care at hospitals and among the poorest.

CONCLUSION

Two state clusters in India progressed in different mortality transitions, with efforts to maximise coverage at increasingly advanced levels of healthcare, alongside socioeconomic improvements. The transition model characterises progress and guides further advances in maternal and newborn survival.

Association of Maternal Cigarette Smoking with Neonatal Death: A Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Maternal pregnancy smoking has adverse perinatal outcomes and the relationship between maternal smoking and neonatal death has not been fully elucidated. We aimed to examine the risk of neonatal death in relation to maternal smoking and to quantify potential mediators of these associations.

METHODS

We did a population-based cohort study using Period Linked Birth-Infant Death data from 2016 to 2019 in the US National Vital Statistics System. The exposure was maternal smoking status. The main outcome was neonatal death. Association between maternal smoking and neonatal death was estimated through logistic regression. Mediation analysis was performed to assess the extent to which the association between maternal smoking and neonatal death was mediated by neonatal complications.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 14,717,020 mothers with live singleton births. The overall neonatal mortality rate was 2.2 per 1,000 live births. Maternal pregnancy smoking was associated with an increased risk of neonatal death {adjusted odds ratio (aOR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.28-1.38]; p < 0.001)}, while smoking cessation during the whole pregnancy showed a comparable risk of neonatal death with nonsmokers (aOR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.99-1.14]; p = 0.116). Mediation analysis indicated that the association between pregnancy smoking and neonatal death might be mainly mediated by preterm birth and low Apgar score at 5 min.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal pregnancy smoking, regardless of pregnancy trimester and intensity, was associated with increased risk of neonatal death. Efforts are needed for policymakers to promote smoking cessation before pregnancy, and professional perinatal care should be provided for those who smoked during pregnancy.

"Fruits of our past karma": a qualitative study on knowledge and attitudes about congenital anomalies among women in Pune district, India

Congenital anomalies are distressing events for future parents/parents when a foetal anomaly is detected during pregnancy or when the infant is born with a disability or a congenital disorder. Maternal health services in India do not provide information on these disorders as part of routine activities. The objective is to understand women's knowledge and attitude on causes, prevention, rights; attituted towards disability; and knowledge on medical care, rehabilitation, and welfare services in Pune district, India, with the goal of identifying the contents of birth defects education resources. The study used a qualitative descriptive design. Six focus group discussions were conducted with 24 women from Pune district. Qualitative content analysis was used to identify emergent themes. Three themes emerged. Firstly, women's knowledge on congenital anomalies was limited. These conditions were discussed generally with other adverse pregnancy experiences, and with reference to children with disabilities. Secondly, pregnancy termination for conditions considered untreatable was majorly advocated by most women. Directive counselling for pregnancy termination by doctors was common. Thirdly, stigmatizing attitudes were responsible for children with disabilities being considered a burden, for maternal blaming, and for the stigma and isolation of families. Knowledge on rehabilitation was limited. The study identified that participants. Three target groups and contents for birth defects education were identified. Women's resources should include knowledge on preconception and antenatal opportunities for reducing risks, available medical care, and legal rights. Parents' resources should provide information on treatment, rehabilitation, legal provisions, and rights of disabled children. Resources for the general community should additionally include disability sensitization messages to ensure the inclusion of children with congenital disabilities.

Maternal Colonization Versus Nosocomial Transmission as the Source of Drug-Resistant Bloodstream Infection in an Indian Neonatal Intensive Care Unit: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Drug-resistant gram-negative (GN) pathogens are a common cause of neonatal sepsis in low- and middle-income countries. Identifying GN transmission patterns is vital to inform preventive efforts.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study, 12 October 2018 to 31 October 2019 to describe the association of maternal and environmental GN colonization with bloodstream infection (BSI) among neonates admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) in Western India. We assessed rectal and vaginal colonization in pregnant women presenting for delivery and colonization in neonates and the environment using culture-based methods. We also collected data on BSI for all NICU patients, including neonates born to unenrolled mothers. Organism identification, antibiotic susceptibility testing, and next-generation sequencing (NGS) were performed to compare BSI and related colonization isolates.

RESULTS

Among 952 enrolled women who delivered, 257 neonates required NICU admission, and 24 (9.3%) developed BSI. Among mothers of neonates with GN BSI (n = 21), 10 (47.7%) had rectal, 5 (23.8%) had vaginal, and 10 (47.7%) had no colonization with resistant GN organisms. No maternal isolates matched the species and resistance pattern of associated neonatal BSI isolates. Thirty GN BSI were observed among neonates born to unenrolled mothers. Among 37 of 51 BSI with available NGS data, 21 (57%) showed a single nucleotide polymorphism distance of ≤5 to another BSI isolate.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective assessment of maternal GN colonization did not demonstrate linkage to neonatal BSI. Organism-relatedness among neonates with BSI suggests nosocomial spread, highlighting the importance of NICU infection prevention and control practices to reduce GN BSI.

Added value of the measles-rubella supplementary immunization activity in reaching unvaccinated and under-vaccinated children, a cross-sectional study in five Indian districts, 2018-20

INTRODUCTION

Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) aim to interrupt measles transmission by reaching susceptible children, including children who have not received the recommended two routine doses of MCV before the SIA. However, both strategies may miss the same children if vaccine doses are highly correlated. How well SIAs reach children missed by routine immunization is a key metric in assessing the added value of SIAs.

METHODS

Children aged 9 months to younger than 5 years were enrolled in cross-sectional household serosurveys conducted in five districts in India following the 2017-2019 measles-rubella (MR) SIA. History of measles containing vaccine (MCV) through routine services or SIA was obtained from documents and verbal recall. Receipt of a first or second MCV dose during the SIA was categorized as "added value" of the SIA in reaching un- and under-vaccinated children.

RESULTS

A total of 1,675 children were enrolled in these post-SIA surveys. The percentage of children receiving a 1st or 2nd dose through the SIA ranged from 12.8% in Thiruvananthapuram District to 48.6% in Dibrugarh District. Although the number of zero-dose children prior to the SIA was small in most sites, the proportion reached by the SIA ranged from 45.8% in Thiruvananthapuram District to 94.9% in Dibrugarh District. Fewer than 7% of children remained measles zero-dose after the MR SIA (range: 1.1-6.4%) compared to up to 28% before the SIA (range: 7.3-28.1%).

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated the MR SIA provided considerable added value in terms of measles vaccination coverage, although there was variability across districts due to differences in routine and SIA coverage, and which children were reached by the SIA. Metrics evaluating the added value of an SIA can help to inform the design of vaccination strategies to better reach zero-dose or undervaccinated children.

Evaluating the moderating role of accredited social health activists on adverse birth outcomes in rural India

BACKGROUND

The Indian government established the Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA) program in 2006 to improve access and healthcare coverage in rural regions. The objective of this study was to examine the moderating role of ASHA home visits and ASHA-accompanied antenatal care visits (ANC) on the relationship between sociodemographic latent classes of pregnant women and preterm birth and low birth weight infants in rural Mysore District, India.

METHODS

Utilizing a prospective cohort study conducted between 2011 and 2014, secondary data analysis was performed among 1540 pregnant women in rural Mysore, India. Latent class analysis was performed to identify sociodemographic distinct patterns. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the moderating effects of ASHA-accompanied ANC visits and ASHA home visits on preterm birth and low birth weight.

RESULTS

Among women who never/rarely had ASHA-accompanied ANC visits, women in Class 1 "low socioeconomic status (SES)/early marriage/multigravida/1 child or more" had higher odds of preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-6.12 compared to Class 4 "high SES/later marriage/primigravida/no children.". Women in Class 3 "high SES/later marriage/multigravida/1 child or more" had higher odds of preterm birth compared to class 4. Women in Class 2 "low SES/later marriage/primigravida/no children" had higher odds of low birth weight infant.

CONCLUSION

The findings demonstrate that ASHA accompanying women to ANC moderates the risk of preterm births among women in high-risk SES groups. Targeted policies and interventions in improving and strengthening the ASHA program are needed to reduce inequalities in adverse birth outcomes in rural India.

Routine childhood vaccination in India from 2005-2006 to 2015-2016: Temporal trends and geographic variation

OBJECTIVE

India has experienced a substantial increase in the coverage of routine childhood vaccines in recent years. However, a large fraction of these vaccines is not delivered in a timely manner, i.e., at the recommended age. Further, substantial disparities exist in both coverage and timeliness across states. We aim to quantify the changes in coverage and timeliness of routine childhood vaccination in India over time, their variation across states, and changes in these variations over time.

METHODS

We used data from two rounds of India's National Family Health Surveys, NFHS-3 (2005-06) and NFHS-4 (2015-16) on bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccine (BCG), three doses of diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine (DPT1, DPT2, DPT3), and measles-containing vaccine (MCV). We used the Turnbull estimator to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of administering each vaccine by a certain age while accounting for two-sided censoring in the survey data. We then used these estimated CDFs to calculate coverage and timeliness at the national and state levels.

FINDINGS

At the national level, both vaccination coverage and timeliness estimates increased from NFHS-3 to NFHS-4 for all vaccines. The increase in timeliness ranging from 27.3% for DPT3 to 74.0% for MCV continued to be lower than coverage, ranging from 75.3% (95% CI 57.7-87.2) for DPT3 to 74.0% (95% CI 42.2-33.0) for MCV, for all vaccines. Cross-state variation in timeliness was greater than the variation in coverage. Variation in both timeliness and coverage reduced from NFHS-3 to NFHS-4. However, this reduction was greater for timeliness than for coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

A large fraction of the children in India receive vaccines later than the recommended age thereby keeping them exposed to vaccine-preventable diseases. Interventions that specifically focus on improving the timely delivery of vaccines are needed to improve the overall effectiveness of the routine immunization program.

Seasonal variation in infant mortality in India

Investigating seasonal variation in health helps us understand interactions between population, environment, and disease. Using information on birth month and year, survival status within the first year of life, and age at death (if applicable) of more than 330,000 children observed in four rounds of India's Demographic and Health Surveys, I estimate period mortality rates between birth and age one (₁m₀) by calendar month. Relative to spring months, infant mortality is higher in the summer, monsoon, and winter months. If spring mortality conditions had been prevalent throughout the year, mortality below age one would have been lower by 11.4 deaths per 1,000 in the early 1990s and 3.7 deaths per 1,000 in the mid-2010s. Seasonal variation in infant mortality has declined overall but remains higher among disadvantaged children. The results highlight the multiple environmental health threats that Indian infants face and the short time of year when these threats are less salient.

Mothers' Social Status and Children's Health: Evidence From Joint Households in Rural India

The premise that a woman's social status has intergenerational effects on her children's health has featured prominently in population science research and in development policy. This study focuses on an important case in which social hierarchy has such an effect. In joint patrilocal households in rural India, women married to the younger brother are assigned lower social rank than women married to the older brother in the same household. Almost 8% of rural Indian children under 5 years old-more than 6 million children-live in such households. We show that children of lower-ranking mothers are less likely to survive and have worse health outcomes, reflected in higher neonatal mortality and shorter height, compared with children of higher-ranking mothers in the same household. That the variation in mothers' social status that we study is not subject to reporting bias is an advantage relative to studies using self-reported measures. We present evidence that one mechanism for this effect is maternal nutrition: although they are not shorter, lower-ranking mothers weigh less than higher-ranking mothers. These results suggest that programs that merely make transfers to households without attention to intrahousehold distribution may not improve child outcomes.

Mortality Associated with Ambient PM2.5 Exposure in India: Results from the Million Death Study

BACKGROUND

Studies on the extent to which long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) contributes to adult mortality in India are few, despite over 99% of Indians being exposed to levels that the World Health Organization (WHO) considers unsafe.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a retrospective cohort study within the Million Death Study (MDS) to provide the first-ever quantification of national mortality from exposure to PM2.5 in India from 1999 to 2014.

METHODS

We calculated relative risks (RRs) by linking a total of ten 3-y intervals of satellite-based estimated PM2.5 exposure to deaths 3 to 5 y later in over 7,400 small villages or urban blocks covering a total population of 6.8 million. We applied using a model-based geostatistical model, adjusted for individual age, sex, and year of death; smoking prevalence, rural/urban residency, area-level female illiteracy, languages, and spatial clustering and unit-level variation.

RESULTS

PM2.5 exposure levels increased from 1999 to 2014, particularly in central and eastern India. Among 212,573 deaths at ages 15-69 y, after spatial adjustment, we found a significant RR of 1.09 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.04, 1.14] for stroke deaths per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, but no significant excess for deaths from chronic respiratory disease and ischemic heart disease (IHD), all nonaccidental causes, and total mortality (after excluding stroke). Spatial adjustment attenuated the RRs for chronic respiratory disease and IHD but raised those for stroke. The RRs were consistent in various sensitivity analyses with spatial adjustment, including stratifying by levels of solid fuel exposure, by sex, and by age group, addition of climatic variables, and in supplementary case-control analyses using injury deaths as controls.

DISCUSSION

Direct epidemiological measurements, despite inherent limitations, yielded associations between mortality and long-term PM2.5 inconsistent with those reported in earlier models used by the WHO to derive estimates of PM2.5 mortality in India. The modest RRs in our study are consistent with near or null mortality effects. They suggest suitable caution in estimating deaths from PM2.5 exposure based on MDS results and even more caution in extrapolating model-based associations of risk derived mostly from high-income countries to India. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9538.

Effect of home-based childcare on childhood mortality in rural Maharashtra, India: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Melghat, an impoverished rural area in Maharashtra state, India; has scarce hospital services and low health-seeking behaviour. At baseline (2004) the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) (number of deaths in children aged 0–5 years/1000 live births) was 147.21 and infant mortality rate (IMR) (number of deaths of infants aged under 1 year/1000 live births) was 106.6 per 1000 live births. We aimed at reducing mortality rates through home-based child care (HBCC) using village health workers (VHWs).

Methods

A cluster-randomised control trial was conducted in 34 randomly assigned clusters/villages of Melghat, Maharashtra state, between 2004 and 2009. Participants included all under-five children and their parents. Interventions delivered through VHWs were patient–public involvement, newborn care, disease management and behaviour change communications. Primary outcome indicators were U5MR and IMR. Secondary outcome indicators were neonatal mortality rate (NMR) (number of neonatal deaths aged 0–28 days/1000 live births) and perinatal mortality rate (PMR) (number of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths/1000 total births). Analysis was by intention-to-treat at the individual level. This trial was extended to a service phase (2010–2015) in both arms and a government replication phase (2016–2019) only for the intervention clusters/areas (IA).

Findings

There were 18 control areas/clusters (CA) allocated and analysed with 4426 individuals, and 16 of 18 allocated IA, analysed with 3230 individuals. The IMR and U5MR in IA were reduced from 106.60 and 147.21 to 32.75 and 50.38 (reduction by 69.28% and 65.78%, respectively) compared with increases in CA from 67.67 and 105.3 to 86.83 and 122.8, respectively, from baseline to end of intervention. NMR and PMR in IA showed reductions from 50.76 to 22.67 (by 55.34%) and from 75.06 to 24.94 (by 66.77%) respectively. These gains extended to villages in the service and replication phases.

Interpretation

This socio-culturally contextualised model for HBCC through VHWs backed up with institutional support is effective for significant reduction of U5MR, IMR and NMR in impoverished rural areas. This reduction was maintained in the study area during the service phase, indicating feasibility of implementation in large-scale public health programmes. Replicability of the model was demonstrated by a linear decline in all the mortality rates in 20 new villages during the government phase.

Trial registration number

NCT02473796.

Geographical disparities in infant mortality in the rural areas of China: a descriptive study, 2010-2018

BACKGROUND

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered a basic measure of public health for countries around the world. The specific aim of our study was to provide an updated description of infant mortality rate among different regions in rural China, and assess the trends and causes of the IMR geographical disparities.

METHODS

Data were collected from China's Under-5 Child Mortality Surveillance System(U5CMSS). The annual number of deaths and causes of death were adjusted using a 3-year moving average underreporting rate based on annual national data quality control results. The average annual decline rate (AADR) and the relative risk (RR) of the IMR and cause-specific infant mortality were calculated by Poisson regression and the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel method. Data analysis was completed by SAS software.

RESULTS

There was an apparent decrease in infant mortality in rural China from 2010 to 2018, at the AADR of 11.0% (95%CI 9.6-12.4), 11.2% (95%CI 10.3-12.1) and 6.6% (95%CI 6.0-7.3) in the eastern, central and western rural areas, respectively. The IMR was highest in the western rural area, followed by the central and eastern rural areas. Compared with the eastern rural area, the RR of infant mortality in the central rural area remained at 1.4-1.6 and increased from 2.4 (95%CI 2.3-2.6) in 2010-2012 to 3.1 (95% CI 2.9-3.4) in 2016-2018 in the western rural area. Pneumonia, preterm birth /LBW and birth asphyxia were the leading causes of infant deaths in the western rural area. Mortality rates of these three causes fell significantly in 2010-2018 but contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the western rural area than in the central and western rural ares.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated that the infant mortality rate dropped significantly from 2010 to 2018, however, geographical disparities of IMR in rural China are still persist. Therefore, there is an urgent need for public health programmes and policy interventions for infants in western rural China.

Association between vaccine preventable diseases in children and improved sanitation following a nationwide sanitation campaign in India: an ecological analysis

OBJECTIVE

Persistent exposure to faecal pathogens due to open defecation may cause environmental enteropathy that, in turn, may lead to undernutrition and vaccine failure in under 5-year-old (u5) children. The Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) programme in India, launched in 2014, aimed to construct toilets for every household nationwide and reduce open defecation. This programme, if successful, had the potential to reduce the burden of four vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs): diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus and measles. We examine whether increased household toilet availability in Indian districts following SBM corresponds with a reduction in diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus and measles in u5 children.

DESIGN

Observational, ecological study.

SETTING

532 districts in 28 Indian states, from 2013 to 2016.

PRIMARY OUTCOME AND EXPOSURE

We retrieved data on district-level change in the annual incidence (per 1000 u5 children) of four VPDs, from 2013 (pre-SBM) to 2016 (post-SBM). We obtained data on our exposure, the change in the percentage of households with toilets (per district), from three large national surveys conducted in 2013 and 2016. We used linear regression analysis, which controlled for change over time in socioeconomic factors, health system-related covariates and pre-SBM annual incidence of VPDs.

RESULTS

A one percentage point increase in households with toilets corresponds with 0.33 fewer measle cases per 1000 u5 children in a district (coefficient: -0.33, 95% CI -0.0641 to -0.014; p<0.05). About 12% of this association is mediated by a reduction in u5 stunting. We observe no relation of the exposure with diphtheria, pertussis or tetanus. Findings remain robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Rapid improvements in ambient sanitation through increased toilet availability correspond with a reduction in the annual incidence of measles in u5 children. We encourage replication of findings and further research to identify potential pathways by which SBM may reduce measle burden in u5 children.

The association between institutional delivery and neonatal mortality based on the quality of maternal and newborn health system in India

Over 600,000 newborns in India died in their first month of life in 2017 despite large increases in access to maternal health services. We assess whether maternal and newborn health system quality in India is adequate for institutional delivery to reduce neonatal mortality. We identified recent births from the cross-sectional 2015–2016 National Family Health Survey and used reported content of antenatal care and immediate postpartum care averaged at the district level to characterize health system quality for maternity and newborn services. We used random effect logistic models to assess the relationship between institutional delivery and neonatal (death within the first 28 days of life) and early neonatal (death within 7 days of live births) mortality by quintile of district maternal and newborn health system quality. Three quarters of 191,963 births were in health facilities; 2% of newborns died within 28 days. District-level quality scores ranged from 40 to 90% of expected interventions. Institutional delivery was not protective against newborn mortality in the districts with poorest health system quality, but was associated with decreased mortality in districts with higher quality. Predicted neonatal mortality in the highest quintile of quality would be 0.018 (95% CI 0.010, 0.026) for home delivery and 0.010 (0.007, 0.013) for institutional delivery. Measurement of quality is limited by lack of data on quality of acute and referral care. Institutional delivery is associated with meaningful survival gains where quality of maternity services is higher. Addressing health system quality is an essential element of achieving the promise of increased access to maternal health services.

Care Around Birth Approach: A Training, Mentoring, and Quality Improvement Model to Optimize Intrapartum and Immediate Postpartum Quality of Care in India

BACKGROUND

With the highest risk of maternal and newborn mortality occurring during the period around birth, quality of care during the intrapartum and immediate postpartum periods is critical for maternal and neonatal survival.

METHODS

The United States Agency for International Development's Scaling Up Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health Interventions project, also known as the Vriddhi project, collaborated with the national and 6 state governments to design and implement the Care Around Birth approach in 141 high caseload facilities across 26 high-priority districts of India from January 2016 to December 2017. The approach aimed to synergize evidence-based technical interventions with quality improvement (QI) processes, respectful maternity care, and health system strengthening efforts. The approach was designed using experiential training, mentoring, and a QI model. A baseline assessment measured the care ecosystem, staff competencies, and labor room practices. At endline, the approach was externally evaluated.

RESULTS

Availability of logistics, recording and reporting formats, and display of protocols improved across the intervention facilities. At endline (October-December 2017), delivery and newborn trays were available in 98% of facilities compared to 66% and 55% during baseline (October-December 2015), respectively. Competency scores (> 80%) for essential newborn care and newborn resuscitation improved from 7% to 70% and from 5% to 82% among health care providers, respectively. The use of partograph in monitoring labor improved from 29% at the baseline to 61%; administration of oxytocin within 1 minute of delivery from 35% to 93%; newborns successfully resuscitated from 71% to 96%; and postnatal monitoring of mothers from 52% to 94%.

CONCLUSION

The approach successfully demonstrated an operational design to improve the provision and experience of care during the intrapartum and immediate postpartum periods, thereby augmenting efforts aimed at ending preventable child and maternal deaths.

Public Finance of Universal Routine Childhood Immunization in India: District Level Cost Estimates

India’s Universal Immunization Programme (UIP) is among the largest routine childhood vaccination programmes in the world. However, only an estimated 65% of Indian children under the age 2 years were fully vaccinated in 2019. We estimated the cost of raising childhood vaccination coverage to a minimum of 90% in each district in India. We obtained vaccine price data from India’s comprehensive multi-year strategic plan for immunization. Cost of vaccine delivery by district was derived from a 2018 field study in 24 districts. We used propensity score matching methods to match the remaining Indian districts with these 24, based on indicators from the National Family Health Survey (2015–16). We assumed the same unit cost of vaccine delivery in matched pair districts and estimated the total and incremental cost of providing routine vaccines to 90% of the current cohort of children in each district. The estimated national cost of providing basic vaccinations—one dose each of Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG) and measles vaccines, and three doses each of oral polio (OPV) and diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus vaccines—was $784.91 million (2020 US$). Considering all childhood vaccines included in UIP during 2018–22 (one dose each of BCG, hepatitis B and measles–rubella; four doses of OPV; two doses of inactivated polio; and three doses each of rotavirus, pneumococcal and pentavalent vaccines), the estimated national cost of vaccines and delivery to 90% of target children in each district was $1.73 billion. The 2018 UIP budget for vaccinating children, pregnant women and adults was $1.17 billion (2020 US$). In comparison, $1.73 billion would be needed to vaccinate 90% of children in all Indian districts with the recommended schedule of routine childhood vaccines. Additional costs for infrastructural investments and communication activities, not incorporated in this study, may also be necessary.

Trends in maternal mortality in India over two decades in nationally representative surveys

OBJECTIVE

To assess national and regional trends and causes-specific distribution of maternal mortality in India.

DESIGN

Nationally representative cross-sectional surveys.

SETTING

All of India from 1997 to 2020.

SAMPLE

About 10 000 maternal deaths among 4.3 million live births over two decades.

METHODS

We analysed trends in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from 1997 through 2020, estimated absolute maternal deaths and examined the causes of maternal death using nationally representative data sources. We partitioned female deaths (aged 15-49 years) and live birth totals, based on the 2001-2014 Million Death Study to United Nations (UN) demographic totals for the country.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal mortality burden and distribution of causes.

RESULTS

The MMR declined in India by about 70% from 398/100 000 live births (95% CI 378-417) in 1997-98 to 99/100 000 (90-108) in 2020. About 1.30 million (95% CI 1.26-1.35 million) maternal deaths occurred between 1997 and 2020, with about 23 800 (95% CI 21 700-26 000) in 2020, with most occurring in poorer states (63%) and among women aged 20-29 years (58%). The MMRs for Assam (215), Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand (192) and Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh (170) were highest, surpassing India's 2016-2018 estimate of 113 (95% CI 103-123). After adjustment for education and other variables, the risks of maternal death were highest in rural and tribal areas of north-eastern and northern states. The leading causes of maternal death were obstetric haemorrhage (47%; higher in poorer states), pregnancy-related infection (12%) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (7%).

CONCLUSIONS

India could achieve the UN 2030 MMR goals if the average rate of reduction is maintained. However, without further intervention, the poorer states will not.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

We estimated that 1.3 million Indian women died from maternal causes over the last two decades. Although maternal mortality rates have fallen by 70% overall, the poorer states lag behind.

Gaps in the coverage of vitamin K1 prophylaxis among newborns in India: insights from secondary analysis of data from the Health Management Information System

OBJECTIVE

Despite operational guidelines, anecdotal evidence suggests that newborn vitamin K1 prophylaxis is not practiced routinely in India. This study determined the coverage of vitamin K1 prophylaxis among newborns in the country.

DESIGN

Nationwide cross-sectional data on live births and newborns receiving vitamin K1 during the 2019-2020 reporting period were abstracted from the Health Management Information System (HMIS). The coverage estimates of newborn vitamin K1 prophylaxis were derived nationally and also for individual states and union territories (UT). Additionally, coverage heterogeneities were investigated using classifiers, viz. geography, socio-demographic index (SDI), special developmental categories and institutional birth rate (IBR).

SETTING

India.

PARTICIPANTS

20 208 804 newborns documented with HMIS.

RESULTS

Vitamin K1 was administered to overall 62·36 % newborns (95 % CI: 62·34 to 62·38 %). The Central zone (49·0 %), low SDI states (54·39 %), Empowered Action Group states (53·32 %) and states with low IBR (44·69 %) had the lowest coverage amongst their respective groupings. Across the individual states and UT, the coverage ranged widely from 22·18 % (in Tripura) to 99·38 % (in Puducherry), exhibiting considerable variability (coefficient of variation: 33·74 %) and inequality (Gini coefficient: 0·17). While the coverage in eight states/UT (i.e. Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Telangana and Andaman & Nicobar Islands) was below 50 %; only five states/UT (i.e. Chandigarh, Gujarat, Goa, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu) achieved above 90 % coverage.

CONCLUSION

Vitamin K1 prophylaxis was not practiced in more than one-third newborns in India. It calls for identifying the barriers, addressing the gaps and implementing newborn vitamin K1 prophylaxis more effectively throughout the country.

Improving vaccination coverage and timeliness through periodic intensification of routine immunization: evidence from Mission Indradhanush

Only an estimated 62% of Indian children under the age of 2 years are fully immunized. We examined the association between India's Mission Indradhanush (MI)-a periodic intensification of the routine immunization program-which was implemented in phases across districts between March 2015 and July 2017, and routine vaccination coverage and timeliness among children. We used data from a 2015 to 2016 national survey of children (n = 29,532) and employed difference-in-difference regressions to examine binary indicators of receipt of 11 vaccines and whether vaccines were received at recommended ages. The full immunization rate was 27% higher among children under 2 years old residing in MI phase 1 and 2 districts (intervention group) as compared with those residing elsewhere (control group). The rate of receiving all vaccines at recommended ages was 8% higher in the intervention group. Receiving doses of oral polio vaccine (OPV) birth dose, OPV dose 1 (OPV1), OPV2, OPV3, bacillus Calmette-Guérin, and hepatitis B birth dose vaccines were 9%, 9%, 11%, 16%, 5%, and 19% higher in the intervention group than the control group, respectively. More research is required on the cost-effectiveness of investing in MI-type programs as compared with routine immunization.

Fetomaternal Outcome Among the Pregnant Women Subject to the Induction of Labor

Introduction

Induction of labor (IOL) is characterized by stimulating contractions of the uterus just before the instantaneous onset of labor, with or without amniotomy. According to the recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO), induction must only be carried out when there is a clear medical need for one and when potential benefits outweigh the expected harm that may be caused by it. The present study was to determine the frequency of fetomaternal outcomes among pregnant women subject to the induction of labor.

Methods

The present prospective cross-sectional study was conducted over a period of one year starting from June 17, 2018, to July 25, 2019, in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Unit III, Civil Hospital Karachi. After institutional ethical committee approval, 302 pregnant women who were subject to induction of labor were enrolled using a non-probability consecutive sampling technique. Outcome variables, i.e., postpartum hemorrhage, mode of delivery, hospital stay more than seven days, birth asphyxia, Apgar score < 7 at five minutes, neonatal jaundice, and low birth weight were noted. IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Statistics for Windows, version 21.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY) was used for data analysis.

Results

A total of 302 women with an average age range was 18-45 years with a mean age of 28.5 ± 4.47, body mass index (BMI) 29.83 ± 3.83, and mean gestational age was 37 ± 4.3. Almost 205 (67.9%) of the cases were booked. One hundred and eighty (59.6%) were nulliparas, 57(18.8%) had para-1, 43 (14.4%) had para-2, and 22 (7.14%) had par-3. When fetomaternal outcome among the pregnant women subject to induction of labor was observed, postpartum hemorrhage was observed in 55 (18.21%), hospital stay more than seven days was in 51 (17%), birth asphyxia was in 45 (14.9%), neonatal jaundice was in 53 (17.6%), low birth weight was in 15 (4.96%), Apgar score < 7 was in 48 (16%), 39 (13%) women underwent for C-section and 263 (87%) of the women delivered vaginally.

Conclusion

This study concludes that the induction of labor (IOL) is safe and reliable and less risk of adverse feto-maternal outcome is associated with pregnancies between 37 weeks and 42 weeks of gestation. The evidence regarding IOL prior to 37 weeks and beyond 42 weeks of gestation is inadequate to reach any conclusion.

Trends in missing females at birth in India from 1981 to 2016: analyses of 2·1 million birth histories in nationally representative surveys

BACKGROUND

Half of the world's missing female births occur in India, due to sex-selective abortion. It is unknown whether selective abortion of female fetuses has changed in recent years across different birth orders. We sought to document the trends in missing female births, particularly among second and third children, at national and state levels.

METHODS

We examined birth histories from five nationally representative household surveys (National Family Health Surveys 1-4 and District Level Household Survey 2) to compute the conditional sex ratio (defined as the number of girls born per 1000 boys depending on previous birth sex) in India during 1981-2016. We estimated decadal variation in conditional sex ratio for 1987-96, 1997-2006, and 2007-16, and quantified trends in the numbers of missing female births for the states constituting >95% of India's population, as well as in 5-year intervals for each survey round. We used multivariate logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio of a second (or third) girl depending on the sex of the earlier child (or children), adjusting for education, wealth, religion, caste, and place of residence.

FINDINGS

We assessed 2·1 million birth histories across the five surveys. Applying the conditional sex ratios from the surveys to national births, we found that 13·5 million female births were missing during the three decades of observation (1987-2016), on the basis of a natural sex ratio of 950 girls per 1000 boys. Missing female births increased from 3·5 million in 1987-96 to 5·5 million in 2007-16. Contrasting the conditional sex ratio from the first decade of observation (1987-96) to the last (2007-16) showed worsening for the whole of India and almost all states, among both birth orders. Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, and Rajasthan had the most skewed sex ratios, comprising nearly a third of the national totals of missing second-born and third-born females at birth. From about 1986, the conditional sex ratio for second-order or third-order births after an earlier daughter or daughters diverged notably from that after an earlier son or sons. From 1981 to 2016, the sex ratio for second-born children after an earlier daughter decreased from 930 (99% CI 869-990) to 885 (859-912), and that for third-born children after two earlier daughters decreased from 968 (866-1069) to 788 (746-830). The probability of missing girls was mostly determined by earlier daughters, even after considering wealth quintile and education levels. The conditional sex ratio among the richest and most educated mothers was most distorted compared with lower wealth and education groups, and generally decreased with time, until a modest improvement in 2007-16.

INTERPRETATION

In contrast to the substantial improvements in female child mortality in India, missing female births, driven by selective abortion of female fetuses, continues to increase across the states. Inclusion of a question on sex composition of births in the forthcoming census would provide local information on sex-selective abortion in each village and urban area of the country.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATION

For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Bacteriological and antibiotic profile of infection among infants in the post-neonatal period at a tertiary care hospital in South India

Purpose

Severe bacterial infection is a major cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Geographical-based demographic laboratory and clinical data are required to get a conclusion about the bacterial infection and their antibiotic susceptibility for the empiric antibiotic treatment in infants who presented with suspected infection. This study was aimed to find the most prevalent bacterial infection and antibiotic sensitivity among infants in the post-neonatal period presented at a tertiary care centre in South India.

Design/methodology/approach

A cross-sectional study was designed among infants (29 days to 1 year old) presented with suspected infection in the paediatric department. Infants with positive culture report were analysed for the bacteriological and antibiotic profile from the medical records. Antibiotic sensitivity was determined for the isolated bacteria according to standard procedure and data statically analysed.

Findings

Total of 218 samples (138 male and 80 female) were analysed. Most of the samples (171/218, 78.4%) were throat swab (p = 0.0247). Only one sample was cerebrospinal fluid from case of meningitis. Sample from upper RTI was major (162/218, 74.3%) with male dominance followed by stool samples from cases of diarrhoea (22/218, 10.0%). Staphylococcus aureus was the major organism identified in 46/171 (26.9 %) throat swabs. The most sensitive antibiotic against bacteria isolated from throat swab and CSF was gentamicin and cloxacillin. Netilmicin and piperacillin plus tazobactam were the sensitive antibiotics against bacteria isolated from stool, ear secretion and urine samples.

Originality/value

Upper RTI was the prevalent bacterial infection followed by diarrhoea in infants in the post-neonatal period. Klebsiella pneumoniae was the common organism identified in the overall report followed by E. coli and S. aureus. Community-based awareness should be provided to follow good hygiene regularly in child care. Furthermore, avoid delay in seeking treatment and provide the medicine prescribed at the right time and in the right dose to limit the morbidity and bacterial resistance.

Associations between private vaccine and antimicrobial consumption across Indian states, 2009-2017

Vaccines can reduce antibiotic use and, consequently, antimicrobial resistance by averting vaccine-preventable and secondary infections. We estimated the associations between private vaccine and antibiotic consumption across Indian states during 2009-2017 using monthly and annual consumption data from IQVIA and employed fixed-effects regression and the Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model for panel data regression, which controlled for income and public sector vaccine use indicators obtained from other sources. In the annual data fixed-effects model, a 1% increase in private vaccine consumption per 1000 under-5 children was associated with a 0.22% increase in antibiotic consumption per 1000 people (P < 0.001). In the annual data GMM model, a 1% increase in private vaccine consumption per 1000 under-5 children was associated with a 0.2% increase in private antibiotic consumption (P < 0.001). In the monthly data GMM model, private vaccine consumption was negatively associated with antibiotic consumption when 32, 34, 35, and 44-47 months had elapsed after vaccine consumption, with a positive association with lags of fewer than 18 months. These results indicate vaccine-induced longer-term reductions in antibiotic use in India, similar to findings of studies from other low- and middle-income countries.

Intrapartum Fetal Heart Monitoring Practices in Selected Facilities in Aspirational Districts of Jharkhand, Odisha and Uttarakhand

Background

The risk of mortality for the mother and the newborn is aggravated during birth in low- and middle-income countries due to preventable causes, which can be addressed with increased quality of care practices. One such practice is intrapartum fetal heart rate (FHR) monitoring, which is crucial for the early detection of fetal ischemia, but is inadequately monitored in low- and middle-income countries. In India, there is currently a lack of sufficient data on FHR monitoring.

Methods

An assessment using facility records, interviews and observation was conducted in seven facilities providing tertiary, secondary or primary level care in aspirational districts of three states. The study sought to investigate the frequency of monitoring, devices used for monitoring and challenges in usage.

Results

FHR was not monitored as per standard protocol. Case sheets revealed 70% of labor was monitored at least once. Only 33% of observed cases were monitored every half hour during active labor, and none were monitored every 5 min during the second stage of labor. More time was observed for monitoring with a Doppler compared with a stethoscope, as providers reported fluctuation in readings. Reportedly, low audibility and a perceived need of expertise were associated with using a stethoscope. High case load and the time required for monitoring were reported as challenges in adhering to standard monitoring protocols.

Conclusion

The introduction of a standardized device and a short refresher training on the World Health Organization and skilled birth attendant protocols for FHR monitoring will improve usage and compliance.

Management of possible serious bacterial infection in young infants closer to home when referral is not feasible: Lessons from implementation research in Himachal Pradesh, India

Background

Government of India and the World Health Organization have guidelines for outpatient management of young infants 0–59 days with signs of Possible Serious Bacterial Infection (PSBI), when referral is not feasible. Implementation research was conducted to identify facilitators and barriers to operationalizing these guidelines.

Methods

Himachal Pradesh government implemented the guidelines in program settings supported by Centre for Health Research and Development, Society for Applied Studies. The strategy included community sensitization, skill enhancement of Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA), Auxiliary Nurse Midwives (ANMs) and Medical Officers (MOs) to identify PSBI and treat when referral was not feasible. The research team collected information on facilitators and barriers. A technical support unit provided training and oversight.

Findings

Among 1997 live births from June 2017 to January 2019, we identified 160 cases of PSBI in young infants resulting in a coverage of 80%, assuming an incidence of 10%. Of these,29(18.1%) had signs of critical illness (CI), 92 (57.5%) had clinical severe infection (CSI), 5 (3.1%)had severe pneumonia (only fast breathing in young infants 0–6 days), while 34 (21%) had pneumonia (only fast breathing in young infants 7–59 days). Hospital referral was accepted by 48/160 (30%), whereas 112/160 (70%) were treated with the simplified treatment regimens at primary level facilities. Of the 29 infants with CI, 18 (62%) accepted referral; 26 (90%) recovered while 3 (10%) who had accepted referral, died. Of the 92 infants who had CSI, 86 (93%) recovered, 65 (71%) received simplified treatment and one infant who had accepted referral, died. All the five infants who had severe pneumonia, recovered; 3 (60%) had received simplified treatment. Of the 34 pneumonia cases, 33 received simplified treatment of which 5 (15%) failed treatment; two out of these 5 died. Overall, 6/160 infants died (case-fatality-rate 3.4%); 2 in the simplified treatment (case-fatality-rate 1.8%) and 4 in the hospital group (case-fatality-rate 8.3%). Delayed identification and care-seeking by families and health system weaknesses like manpower gaps and interrupted supplies were challenges in implementation.

Conclusions

Implementation of the guidelines in program settings is possible and acceptable. Scaling up would require creating community awareness, early identification and appropriate care-seeking, strengthening ASHA home-visitation program, building skills and confidence of MOs and ANMs, uninterrupted supplies and a dependable referral system.

Neonatal deaths in rural Karnataka, India 2014-2018: a prospective population-based observational study in a low-resource setting

BACKGROUND

Neonatal mortality causes a substantial proportion of the under-5 mortality in low and middle-income countries (LMIC).

METHODS

We undertook a prospective, population-based research study of pregnant women residing in defined geographic areas in the Karnataka State of India, a research site of the Global Network for Women's and Children's Health Research. Study staff collected demographic and health care characteristics on eligible women enrolled with neonatal outcomes obtained at delivery and day 28. Cause of neonatal mortality at day 28 was assigned by algorithm using prospectively defined variables.

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2018, the neonatal mortality rate was 24.5 per 1,000 live births. The cause of the 28-day neonatal deaths was attributed to prematurity (27.9%), birth asphyxia (25.1%), infection (23.7%) and congenital anomalies (18.4%). Four or more antenatal care (ANC) visits was associated with a lower risk of neonatal death compared to fewer ANC visits. In the adjusted model, compared to liveborn infants ≥ 2500 g, infants born weighing < 1000 g RR for mortality was 25.6 (95%CI 18.3, 36.0), for 1000-1499 g infants the RR was 19.8 (95% CI 14.2, 27.5) and for 1500-2499 g infants the RR was 3.1 (95% CI 2.7, 3.6). However, more than one-third (36.8%) of the deaths occurred among infants with a birthweight ≥ 2500 g. Infants born preterm (< 37 weeks) were also at higher risk for 28-day mortality (RR 7.9, 95% CI 6.9, 9.0) compared to infants ≥ 37 weeks. A one-week decrease in gestational age at delivery was associated with a higher risk of mortality with a RR of 1.3 (95% CI 1.3, 1.3). More than 70% of all the deliveries occurred at a hospital. Among infants who died, 50.3% of the infants had received bag/mask ventilation, 47.3% received antibiotics, and 55.6% received oxygen.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with prior research, the study found that infants who were preterm and low-birth weight remained at highest risk for 28-day neonatal mortality in India. Although most of births now occur within health facilities, a substantial proportion are not receiving basic life-saving interventions. Further efforts to understand the impact of care on infant outcomes are needed. Study registration The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov. ClinicalTrial.gov Trial Registration: NCT01073475.

Effect of vaccination on children’s learning achievements: findings from the India Human Development Survey

Background

Beyond the prevention of illness and death, vaccination may provide additional benefits such as improved educational outcomes. However, there is currently little evidence on this question. Our objective was to estimate the effect of childhood vaccination on learning achievements among primary school children in India.

Methods

We used cohort data from the India Human Development Survey. Vaccination status and confounders were measured among children who were at least 12 months old at baseline in 2004–2005. In 2011–2012, the same children completed basic reading, writing and math tests. We estimated the effect of full vaccination during childhood on learning achievements using inverse probability of treatment-weighted logistic regression models and results reported on the risk difference scale. The propensity score included 33 potential community-, household-, mother- and child-level confounders as well as state fixed effects.

Results

Among the 4877 children included in our analysis, 54% were fully vaccinated at baseline, and 54% could read by the age of 8–11 years. The estimated effect of full vaccination on learning achievements ranged from 4 to 6 percentage points, representing relative increases ranging from 6% to 12%. Bias analysis suggested that our observed effects could be explained by unmeasured confounding, but only in the case of strong associations with the treatment and outcome.

Conclusion

These results support the hypothesis that vaccination has lasting effects on children’s learning achievements. Further work is needed to confirm findings and elucidate the potential mechanisms linking vaccines to educational outcomes.

Identification and management of young infants with possible serious bacterial infection where referral was not feasible in rural Lucknow district of Uttar Pradesh, India: An implementation research

BACKGROUND

Based on World Health Organization guidelines, Government of India recommended management of possible serious bacterial infection (PSBI) in young infants up to two months of age on an outpatient basis where referral is not feasible. We implemented the guideline in program setting to increase access to treatment with high treatment success and low resultant mortality.

METHODS

Implementation research was conducted in four rural blocks of Lucknow district in Uttar Pradesh, India. It included policy dialogues with the central and state government and district level officials. A Technical Support Unit was established. Thereafter, capacity building across all cadres of health workers in the implementation area was done for strengthening of home based newborn care (HBNC) program, skills enhancement for identification and management of PSBI, logistics management to ensure availability of necessary supplies, monitoring and evaluation as well as providing feedback. Data was collected by the research team.

RESULTS

From June 2017 to February 2019 there were 24,448 live births in a population of 856106. We identified 1302 infants, aged 0-59 days, with any sign of PSBI leading to a coverage of 53% (1302/2445), assuming an incidence of 10%. However, in the establishment phase the coverage was 33%, while it was 85% in the implementation phase. Accredited social health activists (ASHAs) identified 81.2% (1058/1302) cases while rest were identified by families. ASHAs increased home visits within first 7 days of life in home based newborn care program from 74.3% (2781/3738) to 89.0% (3128/3513) and detection of cases of PSBI from 1.6% (45/2781) to 8.7% (275/3128) in the first and last quarter of the project, respectively. Of these 18.7% (244/1302) refused referral to government health system and 6.7% (88/1302) were treated in a hospital. Among cases of PSBI, there were 13.3% (173/1302) cases of fast breathing in young infant aged 7-59 days in whom referral was not needed. Of these 147 were treated by oral amoxicillin and 95.2% (140/147) were cured. Among those who needed referral, simplified treatment was given when referral was refused. There were 2.9% (37/1302) cases of fast breathing at ages of 0-6 days of which 34 were treated by simplified treatment with100% (34/34) cured;66.5% (866/1302) were cases of clinical severe infection of which 685 treated by simplified treatment with94.2% (645/685)cured and 09 died;17.3% (226/1302) cases of critical illness of which 93 were treated by simplified treatment, as a last resort, 72% (67/93) cured and 16 died. Among 255 cases who either did not seek formal treatment or sought it at private facilities, 96 died.

CONCLUSION

Simplified treatment for PSBI is feasible in public program settings in northern India with good cure rates. It required system strengthening and supportive supervision.

National Burden Estimates of healthy life lost in India, 2017: an analysis using direct mortality data and indirect disability data

BACKGROUND

Many countries, including India, seek locally constructed disease burden estimates comprising mortality and loss of health to aid priority setting for the prevention and treatment of diseases. We created the National Burden Estimates (NBE) to provide transparent and understandable disease burdens at the national and subnational levels, and to identify gaps in knowledge.

METHODS

To calculate the NBE for India, we combined 2017 UN death totals with national and subnational mortality rates for 2010-17 and causes of death from 211 166 verbal autopsy interviews in the Indian Million Death Study for 2010-14. We calculated years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 2017 using published YLD-YLL ratios from WHO Global Health Estimates. We grouped causes of death into 45 groups, including ill-defined deaths, and summed YLLs and YLDs to calculate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for these causes in eight age groups covering rural and urban areas and 21 major states of India.

FINDINGS

In 2017, there were about 9·7 million deaths and 486 million DALYs in India. About three quarters of deaths and DALYs occurred in rural areas. More than a third of national DALYs arose from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders. DALY rates in rural areas were at least twice those of urban areas for perinatal and nutritional conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diarrhoea, and fever of unknown origin. DALY rates for ischaemic heart disease were greater in urban areas. Injuries caused 11·4% of DALYs nationally. The top 15 conditions that accounted for the most DALYs were mostly those causing mortality (ischaemic heart disease, perinatal conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diarrhoea, respiratory infections, cancer, stroke, road traffic accidents, tuberculosis, and liver and alcohol-related conditions), with disability mostly due to a few conditions (nutritional deficiencies, neuropsychiatric conditions, vision and other sensory loss, musculoskeletal disorders, and genitourinary diseases). Every condition that was common in one part of India was uncommon elsewhere, suggesting state-specific priorities for disease control.

INTERPRETATION

The NBE method quantifies disease burden using transparent, intuitive, and reproducible methods. It provides a simple, locally operable tool to aid policy makers in priority setting in India and other low-income and middle-income countries. The NBE underlines the need for many more countries to collect nationally representative cause of death data, paired with focused surveys of disability.

FUNDING

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

National, regional, and global levels and trends in neonatal mortality between 1990 and 2017, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis

Background

Reducing neonatal mortality is an essential part of the third Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), to end preventable child deaths. To achieve this aim will require an understanding of the levels of and trends in neonatal mortality. We therefore aimed to estimate the levels of and trends in neonatal mortality by use of a statistical model that can be used to assess progress in the SDG era. With these estimates of neonatal mortality between 1990 and 2017, we then aimed to assess how different targets for neonatal mortality could affect the burden of neonatal mortality from 2018 to 2030.

Methods

In this systematic analysis, we used nationally-representative empirical data related to neonatal mortality, including data from vital registration systems, sample registration systems, and household surveys, to estimate country-specific neonatal mortality rates (NMR; the probability of dying during the first 28 days of life) for all countries between 1990 (or the earliest year of available data) and 2017. For our analysis, we used all publicly available data on neonatal mortality from databases compiled annually by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, which were extracted on or before July 31, 2018, for data relating to the period between 1950 and 2017. All nationally representative data were assessed. We used a Bayesian hierarchical penalised B-splines regression model, which allowed for data from different sources to be weighted differently, to account for variable biases and for the uncertainty in NMR to be assessed. The model simultaneously estimated a global association between NMR and under-5 mortality rate and country-specific and time-specific effects, which enabled us to identify countries with an NMR that was higher or lower than expected. Scenario-based projections were made at the county level by use of current levels of and trends in neonatal mortality and historic or annual rates of reduction that would be required to achieve national targets. The main outcome that we assessed was the levels of and trends in neonatal mortality and the global and regional NMRs from 1990 to 2017.

Findings

Between 1990 and 2017, the global NMR decreased by 51% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 46–54), from 36·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (35·5–37·8) in 1990, to 18·0 deaths per 1000 livebirths (17·0–19·9) in 2017. The estimated number of neonatal deaths during the same period decreased from 5·0 million (4·9 million–5·2 million) to 2·5 million (2·4 million–2·8 million). Annual NMRs vary widely across the world, but west and central Africa and south Asia had the highest NMRs in 2017. All regions have reported reductions in NMRs since 1990, and most regions accelerated progress in reducing neonatal mortality in 2000–17 versus 1990–2000. Between 2018 and 2030, we project that 27·8 million children will die in their first month of life if each country maintains its current rate of reduction in NMR. If each country achieves the SDG neonatal mortality target of 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths or fewer by 2030, we project 22·7 million cumulative neonatal deaths by 2030. More than 60 countries need to accelerate their progress to reach the neonatal mortality SDG target by 2030.

Interpretation

Although substantial progress has been made in reducing neonatal mortality since 1990, increased efforts to improve progress are still needed to achieve the SDG target by 2030. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high NMR, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development.

National, regional, and state-level burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children in India: modelled estimates for 2000-15

Background

India accounts for a disproportionate burden of global childhood illnesses. To inform policies and measure progress towards achieving child health targets, we estimated the annual national and state-specific childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) between 2000 and 2015.

Methods

In this modelling study, we used vaccine clinical trial data to estimate the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus and Hib. The proportion of meningitis deaths attributable to each pathogen was derived from pathogen-specific meningitis case fatality and bacterial meningitis case data from surveillance studies. We applied these proportions to modelled state-specific pneumonia and meningitis deaths from 2000 to 2015 prepared by the WHO Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration (WHO/MCEE) on the basis of verbal autopsy studies from India. The burden of clinical and severe pneumonia cases attributable to pneumococcus and Hib was ascertained with vaccine clinical trial data and state-specific all-cause pneumonia case estimates prepared by WHO/MCEE by use of risk factor prevalence data from India. Pathogen-specific meningitis cases were derived from state-level modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and state-level meningitis case fatality estimates. Pneumococcal and Hib morbidity due to non-pneumonia, non-meningitis (NPNM) invasive syndromes were derived by applying the ratio of pathogen-specific NPNM cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases to the state-level pathogen-specific meningitis cases. Mortality due to pathogen-specific NPNM was calculated with the ratio of pneumococcal and Hib meningitis case fatality to pneumococcal and Hib meningitis NPNM case fatality. Census data from India provided the population at risk.

Findings

Between 2000 and 2015, estimates of pneumococcal deaths in Indian children aged 1–59 months fell from 166 000 (uncertainty range [UR] 110 000–198 000) to 68 700 (44 600–86 000), while Hib deaths fell from 82 600 (52 300–112 000) to 15 600 (9800–21 500), representing a 58% (UR 22–78) decline in pneumococcal deaths and an 81% (59–91) decline in Hib deaths. In 2015, national mortality rates in children aged 1–59 months were 56 (UR 37–71) per 100 000 for pneumococcal infection and 13 (UR 8–18) per 100 000 for Hib. Uttar Pradesh (18 900 [UR 12 300–23 600]) and Bihar (8600 [5600–10 700]) had the highest numbers of pneumococcal deaths in 2015. Uttar Pradesh (9300 [UR 5900–12 700]) and Odisha (1100 [700–1500]) had the highest numbers of Hib deaths in 2015. Less conservative assumptions related to the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus indicate that as many as 118 000 (UR 69 000–140 000) total pneumococcal deaths could have occurred in 2015 in India.

Interpretation

Pneumococcal and Hib mortality have declined in children aged 1–59 months in India since 2000, even before nationwide implementation of conjugate vaccines. Introduction of the Hib vaccine in several states corresponded with a more rapid reduction in morbidity and mortality associated with Hib infection. Rapid scale-up and widespread use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and sustained use of the Hib vaccine could help accelerate achievement of child survival targets in India.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National, regional, and state-level all-cause and cause-specific under-5 mortality in India in 2000-15: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals

BACKGROUND

India had the largest number of under-5 deaths of all countries in 2015, with substantial subnational disparities. We estimated national and subnational all-cause and cause-specific mortality among children younger than 5 years annually in 2000-15 in India to understand progress made and to consider implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) child survival targets.

METHODS

We used a multicause model to estimate cause-specific mortality proportions in neonates and children aged 1-59 months at the state level, with causes of death grouped into pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, injury, measles, congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, and other causes. AIDS and malaria were estimated separately. The model was based on verbal autopsy studies representing more than 100 000 neonatal deaths globally and 16 962 deaths among children aged 1-59 months at the subnational level in India. By applying these proportions to all-cause deaths by state, we estimated cause-specific numbers of deaths and mortality rates at the state, regional, and national levels.

FINDINGS

In 2015, there were 25·121 million livebirths in India and 1·201 million under-5 deaths (under-5 mortality rate 47·81 per 1000 livebirths). 0·696 million (57·9%) of these deaths occurred in neonates. There were disparities in child mortality across states (from 9·7 deaths [Goa] to 73·1 deaths [Assam] per 1000 livebirths) and regions (from 29·7 deaths [the south] to 63·8 deaths [the northeast] per 1000 livebirths). Overall, the leading causes of under-5 deaths were preterm birth complications (0·330 million [95% uncertainty range 0·279-0·367]; 27·5% of under-5 deaths), pneumonia (0·191 million [0·168-0·219]; 15·9%), and intrapartum-related events (0·139 million [0·116-0·165]; 11·6%), with cause-of-death distributions varying across states and regions. In states with very high under-5 mortality, infectious-disease-related causes (pneumonia and diarrhoea) were among the three leading causes, whereas the three leading causes were all non-communicable in states with very low mortality. Most states had a slower decline in neonatal mortality than in mortality among children aged 1-59 months. Ten major states must accelerate progress to achieve the SDG under-5 mortality target, while 17 are not on track to meet the neonatal mortality target.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to reduce vaccine-preventable deaths and to reduce geographical disparities should continue to maintain progress achieved in 2000-15. Enhanced policies and programmes are needed to accelerate mortality reduction in high-burden states and among neonates to achieve the SDG child survival targets in India by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000-17

BACKGROUND

India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.

METHODS

We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level.

FINDINGS

U5MR in India decreased from 83·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·7-90·1) in 2000 to 42·4 (36·5-50·0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38·0 (34·2-41·6) to 23·5 (20·1-27·8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5·7 times between the states of India and 10·5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4·5 times and 8·0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9·02% (95% UI 6·30-11·63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8·05% (95% UI 5·34-10·74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neonatal disorders, and the smallest decline for congenital birth defects, although the magnitude of decline varied widely between the states. Child and maternal malnutrition was the predominant risk factor, to which 68·2% (65·8-70·7) of under-5 deaths and 83·0% (80·6-85·0) of neonatal deaths in India could be attributed in 2017; 10·8% (9·1-12·4) of under-5 deaths could be attributed to unsafe water and sanitation and 8·8% (7·0-10·3) to air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

India has made gains in child survival, but there are substantial variations between the states in the magnitude and rate of decline in mortality, and even higher variations between the districts of India. Inequality between districts within states has increased for the majority of the states. The district-level trends presented here can provide crucial guidance for targeted efforts needed in India to reduce child mortality to meet the Indian and global child survival targets. District-level mortality trends along with state-level trends in causes of under-5 and neonatal death and the risk factors in this Article provide a comprehensive reference for further planning of child mortality reduction in India.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

When Do Newborns Die? Timing and Cause-Specific Neonatal Death in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Referral Hospital in Gedeo Zone: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Maternal, newborn, and child health have a high stake in the global health agenda, however, neonates' risk of dying is unacceptable in the world. Ethiopia is one of the countries with high burden of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Yet, timing and cause-specific neonatal death are under-investigated. The present study aimed to determine the timing and cause-specific neonatal death.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study at Dilla University Referral Hospital Neonatal Care Unit from November 2016 to January 2018. All admitted neonates to the neonatal care unit were followed from cohort entry up to the occurrence of an event (death) or end of follow-up. We generated descriptive statistics to determine the timing of neonatal death and the cause of deaths.

Results

Overall, 11.6% of neonates died during the follow-up. We found that 34.0% and 64.3% of deaths occurred during the first and second weeks of neonatal life, respectively. Neonatal sepsis and low birth weight were the main causes of death and hospital admission. Jaundices and low birth weight were the most common causes of death during the early neonatal period, whereas birth asphyxia, low birth weight, and sepsis were during late neonatal life. However, for other causes of death, the slight difference was seen between the death patterns in early and late neonatal periods.

Conclusions

The timing and cause-specific neonatal deaths were varying among different time of the neonatal periods that needs to design context-based policy and interventions.

Setting priorities in child health research in India for 2016-2025: a CHNRI exercise undertaken by the Indian Council for Medical Research and INCLEN Trust

Background

Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDGs) mobilised countries to reduce child mortality by two thirds the 1990 rate in 2015. While India did not reach MDG 4, it considerably reduced child mortality in the MDG-era. Efficient and targeted interventions and adequate monitoring are necessary to further progress in improvements to child health. Looking forward to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-era, the Indian Council of Medical Research and The INCLEN Trust International conducted a national research priority setting exercise for maternal, child, newborn health, and maternal and child nutrition. Here, results are reported for child health.

Methods

The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method for research priority setting was employed. Research ideas were crowd-sourced from a network of child health experts from across India; these were refined and consolidated into research options (ROs) which were scored against five weighted criteria to arrive weighted Research Priority Scores (wRPS). National and regional priority lists were prepared.

Results

90 experts contributed 596 ideas that were consolidated into 101 research options (ROs). These were scored by 233 experts nationwide. National wRPS for ROs ranged between 0.92 and 0.51. The majority of the top research priorities related to development of cost-effective interventions and their implementation, and impact evaluations, improving data quality; and monitoring of existing programs, or improving the management of morbidities. The research priorities varied between regions, the Economic Action Group and North-Eastern states prioritised questions relating to delivering interventions at community- or household-level, whereas the North-Eastern states and Union Territories prioritised research questions involving managing and measuring malaria, and the Southern and Western states prioritised research questions involving pharmacovigilance of vaccines, impact of newly introduced vaccines, and delivery of vaccines to hard-to-reach populations.

Conclusions

Research priorities varied geographically, according the stage of development of the area and mostly pertained to implementation sciences, which was expected given diversity in epidemiological profiles. Priority setting should help guide investment decisions by national and international agencies, therefore encouraging researchers to focus on priority areas. The ICMR has launched a grants programme for implementation research on maternal and child health to pursue research priorities identified by this exercise.

Child Mortality Transition in the Arabian Gulf: Wealth, Health System Reforms, and Development Goals

Background: Child mortality is the most crucial indicator of national progress and a reflection of not only the health system performance but also the wealth (budget) utilization and goal achievements. Many developing nations have recorded progress in this dimension but those of the Arabian Gulf (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates) show remarkable progress and achievements. Methods: Using the latest update of United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation 2017, an attempt is made here to review and appraise their achievements in child mortality reduction since 1950s taking into account Under 5 mortality, infant mortality, and neonatal mortality. Results: This review finds a rapid decline in child mortality in the Arabian Gulf in a short span of 50 years, which is in line with the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. Conclusions: There is a remarkable budget allocation and investment in health system building, improving the other contributing sectors like water, sanitation, hygiene, nutrition, and life style modifications apart from the usual health care interventions.

Identification of Differentially Expressed Hematopoiesis-associated Genes in Term Low Birth Weight Newborns by Systems Genomics Approach

Background

Low Birth Weight (LBW) (birth weight <2.5 Kg) newborns are associated with a high risk of infection, morbidity and mortality during their perinatal period. Compromised innate immune responses and inefficient hematopoietic differentiation in term LBW newborns led us to evaluate the gene expression status of hematopoiesis.

Materials and Methods

In this study, we compared our microarray datasets of LBW-Normal Birth Weight (NBW) newborns with two reference datasets to identify hematopoietic stem cells genes, and their differential expression in the LBW newborns, by hierarchical clustering algorithm using gplots and RcolorBrewer package in R.

Results

Comparative analysis revealed 108 differentially expressed hematopoiesis genes (DEHGs), of which 79 genes were up-regulated, and 29 genes were down-regulated in LBW newborns compared to their NBW counterparts. Moreover, protein-protein interactions, functional annotation and pathway analysis demonstrated that the up-regulated genes were mainly involved in cell proliferation and differentiation, MAPK signaling and Rho GTPases signaling, and the down-regulated genes were engaged in cell proliferation and regulation, immune system regulation, hematopoietic cell lineage and JAK-STAT pathway. The binding of down-regulated genes (LYZ and GBP1) with growth factor GM-CSF using docking and MD simulation techniques, indicated that GM-CSF has the potential to alleviate the repressed hematopoiesis in the term LBW newborns.

Conclusion

Our study revealed that DEHGs belonged to erythroid and myeloid-specific lineages and may serve as potential targets for improving hematopoiesis in term LBW newborns to help build up their weak immune defense against life-threatening infections.

Potable Reuse of Coalbed Methane-Produced Waters in Developing Country Contexts—Could the Benefits Outweigh the Costs to Facilitate Coal Transitions?

Development of coalbed methane (CBM) projects is critical to the achievement of climate change goals because it will help facilitate coal-to-gas transitions in Asia-Pacific countries with low conventional gas reserves. However, growth in CBM in these regions will necessitate strategic, sustainable approaches to produced water management. We posit that it may be possible to deliver synergistic water, energy, and health benefits by reusing CBM-produced waters as potable water supply in water-stressed coal-bearing regions. The goal of this study is to probabilistically evaluate life cycle costs and benefits of using reverse osmosis to treat CBM-produced water in the Damodar Valley coalfields in eastern India. Two treatment configurations are assessed, namely, centralized, and decentralized (i.e., in-home). We find that both configurations offer good cost-effectiveness based on two separately computed metrics to account for the value of health improvement benefits (i.e., disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted or monetized health benefits). We also observe that centralized systems are more cost-effective than decentralized, because they reduce capital cost and use-phase energy consumption per unit-volume treated. Average estimated values for the cost–benefit ratio are <0.5 and 1.0 for centralized and decentralized, respectively. Normalizing by anticipated health benefits, cost-effectiveness metrics are <$30/DALY for the centralized system versus <$200/DALY for the decentralized system. These results are highly sensitive to the value of statistical life and baseline water access. A related analysis taking into account both CBM-produced waters and mine waters revealed that deployment of reverse osmosis (RO) could provide drinking to approximately 3.5 million people over 20 years in the Damodar Valley region. These results have interesting implications not only for the study region but also for other CBM-producing countries experiencing chronic severe water stress.

Prenatal diagnosis and planned peri-partum care as a strategy to improve pre-operative status in neonates with critical CHDs in low-resource settings: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Prenatal diagnosis and planned peri-partum care is an unexplored concept for care of neonates with critical CHDs in low-middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

To report the impact of prenatal diagnosis on pre-operative status in neonates with critical CHD.

METHODS

Prospective observational study (January 2017-June 2018) in tertiary paediatric cardiac facility in Kerala, India. Neonates (<28 days) with critical CHDs needing cardiac interventions were included. Pre-term infants (<35 weeks) and those without intention to treat were excluded. Patients were grouped into those with prenatal diagnosis and diagnosis after birth. Main outcome measure was pre-operative clinical status.

RESULTS

Total 119 neonates included; 39 (32.8%) had prenatal diagnosis. Eighty infants (67%) underwent surgery while 32 (27%) needed catheter-based interventions. Pre-operative status was significantly better in prenatal group; California modification of transport risk index of physiological stability (Ca-TRIPS) score: median 6 (0-42) versus 8 (0-64); p < 0.001; pre-operative assessment of cardiac and haemodynamic status (PRACHS) score: median 1 (0-4) versus 3 (0-10), p < 0.001. Age at cardiac procedure was earlier in prenatal group (median 5 (1-26) versus 7 (1-43) days; p = 0.02). Mortality occurred in 12 patients (10%), with 3 post-operative deaths (2.5%). Pre-operative mortality was higher in postnatal group (10% versus 2.6%; p = 0.2) of which seven (6%) died due to suboptimal pre-operative status precluding surgery.

CONCLUSION

Prenatal diagnosis and planned peri-partum care had a significant impact on the pre-operative status in neonates with critical CHD in a low-resource setting.

Factors associated with the decline in under-five diarrhea mortality in India: a LiST analysis

BACKGROUND

India has achieved 86% reduction in the number of under-five diarrheal deaths from 1980 to 2015. Nonetheless diarrhea is still among the leading causes of under-five deaths. The aim of this analysis was to study the contribution of factors that led to decline in diarrheal deaths in the country and the effect of scaling up of intervention packages to address the remaining diarrheal deaths.

METHODS

We assessed the attribution of different factors and intervention packages such as direct diarrhea case management interventions, nutritional factors and WASH interventions which contributed to diarrhea specific under-five mortality reduction (DSMR) during 1980 to 2015 using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). The potential impact of scaling up different packages of interventions to achieve universal coverage levels by year 2030 on reducing the number of remaining diarrheal deaths were estimated.

RESULTS

The major factors associated with DSMR reduction in under-fives during 1980 to 2015, were increase in ORS use, reduction in stunting prevalence, improved sanitation, changes in age appropriate breastfeeding practices, increase in the vitamin-A supplementation and persistent diarrhea treatment. ORS use and reduction in stunting were the two key interventions, each accounting for around 32% of the lives saved during this period. Scaling up the direct diarrhea case management interventions from the current coverage levels in 2015 to achieve universal coverage levels by 2030 can save around 82 000 additional lives. If the universal targets for nutritional factors and WASH interventions can be achieved, an additional 23 675 lives can potentially be saved.

CONCLUSIONS

While it is crucial to improve the coverage and equity in ORS use, an integrated approach to promote nutrition, WASH and direct diarrhea interventions is likely to yield the highest impact on reducing the remaining diarrheal deaths in under-five children.

The relationship between the different low birth weight strata of newborns with infant mortality and the influence of the main health determinants in the extreme south of Brazil

BACKGROUND

Low birth weight (LBW) newborns present different health outcomes when classified in different birth weight strata. This study evaluated the relationship of birth weight with Infant mortality (IM) through the influence of biological, social, and health care factors in a time series.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study with data collected from Information Systems (Live Births and Mortality). The mortality trends were performed for each birth weight stratum: extremely low, < 1000 g; very low, 1000-1499 g; low, 1500-2499 g; insufficient, 2500-2999 g; adequate, 3000-3900 g; and macrosomia, > 4000 g. Chi-square tests analyzed IM rates. Sequential Poisson regression analyzed the impact of the determinant factors.

RESULTS

A total of 277,982 newborns were included in the study and 2088 died before their first year. There was a tendency for a decrease in mortality in all strata of weight. With the exception of macrosomics, all other strata had a higher risk for IM when compared with adequate birth weight. Extremely LBW newborns presented higher risk for mortality when born in a public hospital. A higher percentage of infant deaths were associated with lower maternal age and lower schooling for all strata. Prenatal care with less than three visits demonstrated a risk for IM in low, insufficient, and adequate birth weight strata. The cesarean section was a protective factor for IM in Extremely and Very LBW strata and it was a risk factor in adequate birth weight stratum.

CONCLUSIONS

LBW had a greater association with IM, especially those children of younger mothers and those born in public hospitals.

Mortality and recovery following moderate and severe acute malnutrition in children aged 6-18 months in rural Jharkhand and Odisha, eastern India: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recent data suggest that case fatality from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in India may be lower than the 10%-20% estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO). A contemporary quantification of mortality and recovery from acute malnutrition in Indian community settings is essential to inform policy regarding the benefits of scaling up prevention and treatment programmes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cohort study using data collected during a recently completed cluster-randomised controlled trial in 120 geographical clusters with a total population of 121,531 in rural Jharkhand and Odisha, eastern India. Children born between October 1, 2013, and February 10, 2015, and alive at 6 months of age were followed up at 9, 12, and 18 months. We measured the children's anthropometry and asked caregivers whether children had been referred to services for malnutrition in the past 3 months. We determined the incidence and prevalence of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and SAM, as well as mortality and recovery at each follow-up. We then used Cox-proportional models to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for MAM and SAM. In total, 2,869 children were eligible for follow-up at 6 months of age. We knew the vital status of 93% of children (2,669/2,869) at 18 months. There were 2,704 children-years of follow-up time. The incidence of MAM by weight-for-length z score (WLZ) and/or mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was 406 (1,098/2,704) per 1,000 children-years. The incidence of SAM by WLZ, MUAC, or oedema was 190 (513/2,704) per 1,000 children-years. There were 36 deaths: 12 among children with MAM and six among children with SAM. Case fatality rates were 1.1% (12/1,098) for MAM and 1.2% (6/513) for SAM. In total, 99% of all children with SAM at 6 months of age (227/230) were alive 3 months later, 40% (92/230) were still SAM, and 18% (41/230) had recovered (WLZ ≥ -2 standard deviation [SD]; MUAC ≥ 12.5; no oedema). The adjusted HRs using all anthropometric indicators were 1.43 (95% CI 0.53-3.87, p = 0.480) for MAM and 2.56 (95% CI 0.99-6.70, p = 0.052) for SAM. Both WLZ < -3 and MUAC ≥ 11.5 and < 12.5 were associated with increased mortality risk (HR: 3.33, 95% CI 1.23-8.99, p = 0.018 and HR: 3.87, 95% CI 1.63-9.18, p = 0.002, respectively). A key limitation of our analysis was missing WLZ or MUAC data at all time points for 2.5% of children, including for two of the 36 children who died.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural eastern India, the incidence of acute malnutrition among children older than 6 months was high, but case fatality following SAM was 1.2%, much lower than the 10%-20% estimated by WHO. Case fatality rates below 6% have now been recorded in three other Indian studies. Community treatment using ready-to-use therapeutic food may not avert a substantial number of SAM-related deaths in children aged over 6 months, as mortality in this group is lower than expected. Our findings strengthen the case for prioritising prevention through known health, nutrition, and multisectoral interventions in the first 1,000 days of life, while ensuring access to treatment when prevention fails.

Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India

Control of pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India requires understanding of their etiologies. We combined time series analysis of seasonality, climate region, and clinical syndromes from 243,000 verbal autopsies in the nationally representative Million Death Study. Pneumonia mortality at 1 month-14 years was greatest in January (Rate ratio (RR) 1.66, 99% CI 1.51-1.82; versus the April minimum). Higher RRs at 1-11 months suggested respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) etiology. India's humid subtropical region experienced a unique summer pneumonia mortality. Diarrhea mortality peaked in July (RR 1.66, 1.48-1.85) and January (RR 1.37, 1.23-1.48), while deaths with fever and bloody diarrhea (indicating enteroinvasive bacterial etiology) showed little seasonality. Combining mortality at ages 1-59 months with prevalence surveys, we estimate 40,600 pneumonia deaths from Streptococcus pneumoniae, 20,700 from RSV, 12,600 from influenza, and 7200 from Haemophilus influenzae type b and 24,700 diarrheal deaths from rotavirus occurred in 2015. Careful mortality studies can elucidate etiologies and inform vaccine introduction.

The persistent influence of caste on under-five mortality: Factors that explain the caste-based gap in high focus Indian states

OBJECTIVE

Although under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is declining in India, it is still high in a few selected states and among the scheduled caste (SC) and scheduled tribe (ST) population of the country. This study re-examines the association between caste and under-five deaths in high focus Indian states following the implementation of the country's National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) program. In addition, we aim to quantify the contribution of socioeconomic determinants in explaining the gap in under-five death risk between the SC/ST population and non-SC/ST population in high focus states in India.

DATA AND METHOD

Using data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we calculated the U5MR by applying a synthetic cohort probability approach. We applied a binary logistic regression model to examine the association of under-five deaths with the selected covariates. Further, we used Fairlie's decomposition technique to understand the relative contribution of socioeconomic variables on under-five death risk between the caste groups.

FINDINGS

In high focus Indian states, the under-five mortality risk between well-off and deprived caste children has declined in the post-NRHM period, indicating a positive impact in terms of reducing caste-based inequalities in the high focus states. Despite the reduction in under-five death risk, children belonging to the SC population experience higher mortality rates than children belonging to the non-SC/ST population from 1992 to 2016. Both macro level (district level mortality rates) and individual (regression analysis) analyses showed that children belonging to SCs experience the highest likelihood of dying before their fifth birthday. A decomposition analysis revealed that 83% of the caste-based gap in the under-five deaths is due to the distribution of women's level of educational attainment and household wealth between the SC/ST and non-SC/ST population. Program indicators such as place of birth and number of antenatal care (ANC) visit also contributed significantly to widening caste-based gaps in U5MR.

CONCLUSION

The study indicates that there is still room to improve access to health facilities for mothers and children belonging to deprived caste groups in India. Continuous efforts to raise the level of maternal education and the economic status of people belonging to deprived caste groups should be pursued simultaneously.

Peripartum interventions resulting in reduced perinatal mortality rates, and birth asphyxia rates, over 18 years in a tertiary centre in South India: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To study the changes in the rates of perinatal mortality, birth asphyxia, and caesarean sections in relation to interventions implemented over the past 18 years, in a tertiary centre in South India.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Labour and maternity unit of a tertiary centre in South India.

POPULATION OR SAMPLE

Women who gave birth between 2000 and 2018.

METHODS

Information from perinatal audits, chart reviews, and data retrieved from the electronic database were used. Interventions implemented during this time period were audits and training, obstetric re-organisation, and minor changes in staffing and infrastructure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Main outcome measures were perinatal mortality rate, birth asphyxia rate, and caesarean section rate.

RESULTS

Perinatal mortality rate decreased from 44 per 1000 births in 2000 to 16.4 per 1000 births in 2018 (P < 0.001). The rates of babies born with birth asphyxia requiring admission to the neonatal unit decreased from 24 per 1000 births in 2001 to 0.7 per 1000 births in 2018 (P < 0.00001). The overall caesarean section rate was maintained close to 30%.

CONCLUSION

In a large tertiary hospital in South India, with 14 000 deliveries per year, a policy of rigorous audits of stillbirths and birth asphyxia, electronic fetal monitoring, and the introduction of standardised criteria for trial of scar, reduced the perinatal mortality and the rate of babies born with birth asphyxia over the past 18 years, without an increase in the caesarean section rate.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Rigorous perinatal audits with training in fetal cardiotocography, decreased birth asphyxia, without a major increase in caesarean rates.

Antenatal corticosteroids for low and middle income countries

Antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) are sporadically used in low and middle income countries (LMIC), although their use is considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) as essential for decreasing infant mortality. Presently the WHO recommends the use of ACS only when gestational age is known, delivery is imminent, and the delivery will be in a facility that can provide care for the mother and the infant. We review uncertainties about ACS in high income countries that are underappreciated for anticipating their effectiveness in LMIC. We discuss the implications of a large RCT that evaluated the use of ACS in LMIC and found no benefit for presumed preterm infants and increased mortality in larger infants. The treatment schedules for ACS have not been optimized and more is now known about how to improve treatment strategies to hopefully decrease risks such as neonatal hypoglycemia in LMIC. The benefits from ACS may depend on the patient populations and health care environment in which the therapy is used. Further trials are needed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ACS in LMIC.