2018 must be the year for action against NCDs

Non-communicable Disease-Related Sustainable Development Goals for 66 Belt and Road Initiative Countries

BACKGROUND

Since 2015, the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has measured progress in achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) annually worldwide. Little is known about the status and attainment of indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 65 countries from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China in 2013.

METHODS

Data from GBDs were used to estimate 24 NCD-related SDG indicators in BRI countries from 1990 to 2017. Each indicator was scored from 0 to 100 to compare multiple indicators over the study period. The natural log of the annual change in each location and year and weighted annual rates of change were used to generate projections for 2030. National-level estimates were determined by socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles in BRI countries with more than 1 million inhabitants.

RESULTS

In 2017, the median overall score of NCD-related SDG index for the 66 BRI countries was 60 points, ranging from 29 points in Afghanistan to 84 points in Israel. More than 80% of countries achieved the SDG 2030 maternal mortality (MM) rate target in 2017, and the national skilled birth attendance rate was above 99% in more than 59% countries. However, none of the BRI countries achieved the goal for children's overweight, modern methods of contraception, and universal health coverage. It was predicted that 80.4% of NCD-related SDG targets would be achieved in these countries by 2030. The overall score of NCD-related SDG index were positively associated with SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSION

For many indicators, the achieved progress in many countries is less than the annual rate necessary to meet SDG targets, indicating that substantial efforts need to be made in the coming years. Progress should be accelerated through collaborations between countries, implementation of NCD prevention and control strategies, and monitoring of inequalities in NCD-related SDGs within populations.

Two-Eyed Seeing and developmental origins of health and disease studies with indigenous partners

Globally, mortality of Indigenous persons is greater than that of their non-Indigenous counterparts, which has been shown to be disproportionately attributable to non-communicable diseases. The historically subordinate position that Indigenous Knowledge (IK) held in comparison to Western science has shifted over the last several decades, with the credibility and importance of IK now being internationally recognized. Herein, we examine how Marsahall's (2014) Two-Eyed Seeing can foster collaborative and culturally relevant Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) studies for health and well-being by using '..the best in Indigenous ways of knowing…[and] the best in Western (or mainstream) ways of knowing…and learn to use both these eyes for the benefit of all.' At its core, Two-Eyed Seeing also includes the principles of ownership, control, access and possession, and Community-Based Participatory Research, which further reinforces the critical role of Indigenous peoples taking active roles in DOHaD research. Additionally, we also present a partnership model for working with Indigenous communities that includes the principles of respect, equity and empowerment. As researchers begin to fill the gap in Indigenous health, we outline how Two-Eyed Seeing should form the basis of DOHaD studies involving Indigenous communities. This model can be used to develop and guide projects that result in robust and meaningful participatory partnerships that have impactful uptake of research findings.

The association between an increased reimbursement cap for chronic disease coverage and healthcare utilization in China: an interrupted time series study

Hypertension and diabetes are highly prevalent in China and pose significant health and economic burdens, but large gaps in care remain for people with such conditions. In this article, drawing on administrative insurance claim data from China's Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI), we use an interrupted time series design to examine whether an increase in the monthly reimbursement cap for outpatient visits using chronic disease coverage affects healthcare utilization. The cap was increased by 50 yuan per chronic disease on 1 January 2016, in one of the largest cities in China. Compared with the year before the increase, patients with only hypertension increased their spending using chronic disease coverage by 17.8 yuan (P < 0.001) or 11.6%, and those with only diabetes increased their spending using chronic disease coverage by 19.5 yuan (P < 0.001) or 10.6%, with the differences almost entirely driven by spending on drugs. In addition, these two groups of patients reduced their spending using standard outpatient coverage by 13.9 yuan (P < 0.001) or 5.7% and 14.9 yuan (P = 0.03) or 5.2%, respectively, and thus had no changes in total outpatient spending. Patients with both hypertension and diabetes, meanwhile, increased their spending using chronic disease coverage by 54.8 yuan (P < 0.001) or 18.1% and decreased their spending using standard outpatient coverage by 16.1 yuan (P = 0.002) or 6.1%, with no changes in their probability of hospitalization. Among patients with both hypertension and diabetes who had fewer-than-average outpatient visits in 2015, the hospitalization rate decreased after the 2016 reimbursement cap increase (adjusted odds ratio = 0.702, P = 0.01). These findings suggest that increasing financial protection for patients with hypertension and diabetes may be an important strategy for reducing adverse health events, such as hospitalization, in China.

The contribution of employment and working conditions to occupational inequalities in non-communicable diseases in Europe

BACKGROUND

Social inequalities in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are evident across all European regions. Employment and working conditions are important determinants of NCDs, however, few comparative studies have examined how these conditions contribute to health inequalities. This study therefore examines the association of non-standard employment and poor working conditions with occupational inequalities in multiple NCDs and whether there are differences by gender and across European regions.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data from 20 European countries for women and men aged 25-75 (n = 19 876), from round 7 of the European Social Survey. Data were analyzed for self-rated health (SRH) and 9 NCDs: heart/circulatory problems, high blood pressure, arm/hand pain, breathing problems, diabetes, severe headaches, cancer, obesity and depression. We used logistic regression models, stratified by gender, and adjusted rate ratios to examine whether occupational inequalities in NCDs were reduced after adjusting for non-standard employment and poor working conditions, across European regions.

RESULTS

After adjustment, occupational inequalities were significantly reduced across all regions of Europe. Reductions were particularly large among the lowest occupational group and for poor-SRH, depression and obesity. For these conditions, reductions were in the range of 60-99%.

CONCLUSIONS

Employment and working conditions are important determinants of occupational inequalities in NCDs. Labour market regulations should therefore be considered in the formulation of NCD prevention strategies.

International norm development and change: can international law play a meaningful role in curbing the lifestyle disease pandemic?

BACKGROUND

The magnitude of the noncommunicable epidemic is difficult to overstate. The projected cost of the epidemic is substantial. It disproportionately affects people in low- and middle-income countries as well as poorer and marginalised communities in high-income countries. The international community has taken various steps to address the four modifiable risk factors causing the majority of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), however, action has so far fallen short of expectations. Both analysts and international institutions are advocating the adoption of a new international legal norm to address the NCD crisis.

MAIN TEXT

Drawing on existing knowledge from international relations and international legal studies, this article argues that a new international treaty is not only currently improbable, but also not strictly desirable. In-depth critical analysis and reflection is needed regarding the strengths and weaknesses of a legal approach to addressing the NCD pandemic. The argument is set out in three sections - the first reviews contributions of agentic constructivism, which focus on the process of normative emergence and change, and draws on empirical examples to highlight overlooked aspects of normative development and how they relate to NCD politics. The second engages with the critique of legal principles. Critical approaches to law seek to expose the myths that legal principles are neutral, objective, good. The third section discusses the characteristics of practice in the NCD field and its implications on process and principles for the pursuit of a legal solution to the NCD crisis.

CONCLUSIONS

Any advocacy for an international norm to address NCDs needs to be nuanced and demonstrate awareness of the nature and character of both the norm development process and resulting international legal principles. As analysts, we are responsible for advocating inclusive and ethical norms, but also for highlighting the implications of inequalities and differences between and within states and societies. There may be a viable international legal instrument that would support dedicated policies to curb the NCD epidemic, but such an instrument needs to be actively advocated for and negotiated with a wide range of stakeholders, navigating a complex international framework of existing norms and conflicting, powerful interests.

Nexus of COVID-19 and diabetes pandemics: Global public health lessons

Individuals with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes are susceptible to communicable diseases (CDs) as the current COVID-19 pandemic illustrates. The co-occurrence of diabetes as well as other co-morbid conditions with COVID-19 augurs greater risk for severe outcomes and mortality. Hence, NCD and CD pandemics are closely linked and require global efforts to thwart and disrupt their nexus before the next viral outbreaks occurs. This will require steadfast dedication and resolve to address NCDs previously committed to by the global community.

The optics of noncommunicable diseases: from lifestyle to environmental toxicity

Until recently, the noncommunicable disease (NCD) category was composed of four chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease) and four shared, 'modifiable' behavioural risk factors (smoking, diet, physical activity and alcohol). In late 2018, the NCD category was expanded to include mental health as an additional disease outcome and air pollution as an explicit environmental risk factor. The newly-expanded NCD category connects behavioural and environmental readings of risk and shifts attention from individual acts of consumption to unequal and inescapable conditions of environmental exposure. It thus renders the increasing 'toxicity' of everyday life amid ubiquitous environmental contamination a new conceptual and empirical concern for NCD research. It also, as this paper explores, signals a new 'optics' of a much-maligned disease category. This is particularly significant as chronic disease research has long been siloed between public and environmental health, with each discipline operationalising the notion of the 'environment' as a source of disease causation in contrasting ways. Given this, this paper is positioned as a significant contribution to both research on NCDs and environmental risk, bringing these interdisciplinary domains into a new critical conversation around the concept of toxicity.

Prevention of opportunistic non-communicable diseases

As strategies targeting undernutrition and infections become increasingly successful in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), a second challenge has appeared, namely premature onset of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In LMICs, NCDs are often related to exposure to undernutrition and infections. As NCDs strike societies and individuals with impaired resistance or a deficient health (care) state, why not label such diseases ‘opportunistic’, in analogy with opportunistic infections attacking individuals with HIV? We propose the concept of opportunistic NCDs, hoping that fighting against infections, and for better maternal and child health, is becoming acknowledged as essential for the early prevention of NCDs.

Factors that influence patient empowerment in inpatient chronic care: early thoughts on a diabetes care intervention in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The burden of non-communicable diseases is growing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries. Research suggests that health interventions that aim to improve patient self-management and empower patients to care actively for their disease will improve health outcomes over the long-term. There is, however, a gap in the literature about the potential role of the inpatient setting in supporting chronic care. This is particularly important in low-and-middle income countries where hospitals may be a rare prolonged point of contact between patient and health provider. The aim of this small scale, exploratory study was to understand what factors within the inpatient setting may affect patients' feelings of empowerment in relation to their chronic disease care and provides recommendations for future inpatient-based interventions to support self-management of disease.

METHODS

This study was based in a public, academic hospital in South Africa. Eighteen qualitative, semi-structured interviews were conducted with multiple participants with experience of diabetes care: inpatients and health professionals such as nurses, endocrinologists, and dieticians. Findings were analysed using a broad, exploratory, thematic approach, guided by self-management and chronic care literature.

RESULTS

Interviews with both patients and providers suggest that patients living in low socio-economic contexts are likely to struggle to access appropriate healthcare information and services, and may often have financial and emotional priorities that take precedence over their chronic illness. Younger people may also be more dependent on their family and community, giving them less ability to take control of their disease care and lifestyle. In addition, hospital care remains bound by an acute care model; and the inpatient setting of focus is characterised by perceived staff shortages and ineffective communication that undermine the implementation of patient empowerment-focused interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient and provider contexts are likely to make supporting patient engagement in long-term chronic care difficult in lower income settings. However, knowledge of these factors can be harnessed to improve chronic care interventions in South Africa and other similar countries.

The process of prioritization of non-communicable diseases in the global health policy arena

Although non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, the global policy response has not been commensurate with their health, economic and social burden. This study examined factors facilitating and hampering the prioritization of NCDs on the United Nations (UN) health agenda. Shiffman and Smith's (Generation of political priority for global health initiatives: a framework and case study of maternal mortality. The Lancet 370: 1370-9.) political priority framework served as a structure for analysis of a review of NCD policy documents identified through the World Health Organization's (WHO) NCD Global Action Plan 2013-20, and complemented by 11 semi-structured interviews with key informants from different sectors. The results show that a cohesive policy community exists, and leaders are present, however, actor power does not extend beyond the health sector and the role of guiding institutions and civil society have only recently gained momentum. The framing of NCDs as four risk factors and four diseases does not necessarily resonate with experts from the larger policy community, but the economic argument seems to have enabled some traction to be gained. While many policy windows have occurred, their impact has been limited by the institutional constraints of the WHO. Credible indicators and effective interventions exist, but their applicability globally, especially in low- and middle-income countries, is questionable. To be effective, the NCD movement needs to expand beyond global health experts, foster civil society and develop a broader and more inclusive global governance structure. Applying the Shiffman and Smith framework for NCDs enabled different elements of how NCDs were able to get on the UN policy agenda to be disentangled. Much work has been done to frame the challenges and solutions, but implementation processes and their applicability remain challenging globally. NCD responses need to be adapted to local contexts, focus sufficiently on both prevention and management of disease, and have a stronger global governance structure.

Diabetes self-management in three different income settings: Cross-learning of barriers and opportunities

The burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, not least in Sub-Saharan Africa, and disadvantaged populations are disproportionally affected. Self-management is a key strategy for people at risk of or with type 2 diabetes, but implementation is a challenge. The objective of this study is to assess the determinants of self-management from an implementation perspective in three settings: two rural districts in Uganda, an urban township in South Africa, and socio-economically disadvantaged suburbs in Sweden. Data collection followed an exploratory multiple-case study design, integrating data from interviews, focus group discussions, and observations. Data collection and analysis were guided by a contextualized version of a transdisciplinary framework for self-management. Findings indicate that people at risk of or with type 2 diabetes are aware of major self-management strategies, but fail to integrate these into their daily lives. Depending on the setting, opportunities to facilitate implementation of self-management include: improving patient-provider interaction, improving health service delivery, and encouraging community initiatives supporting self-management. Modification of the physical environment (e.g. accessibility to healthy food) and the socio-cultural environment (i.e. norms, values, attitudes, and social support) may have an important influence on people's lifestyle. Regarding the study methodology, we learned that this innovative approach can lead to a comprehensive analysis of self-management determinants across different settings. An important barrier was the difficult contextualization of concepts like perceived autonomy and self-efficacy. Intervention studies are needed to confirm whether the pathways suggested by this study are valid and to test the proposed opportunities for change.

Scientific papers: Which type would you prefer?

It's very important to enhance the quality of scientific papers produced by postgraduates and scholars from academic institutions. To encourage their academic and professional development, these young scientists should be encouraged to compose nonresearch articles, in addition to original research articles, including short essays, perspectives and reviews.

The ABCD of Obesity: An EASO Position Statement on a Diagnostic Term with Clinical and Scientific Implications

Obesity is a frequent, serious, complex, relapsing, and chronic disease process that represents a major public health problem. The coining of obesity as an adiposity-based chronic disease (ABCD) is of particular relevance being in line with EASO's proposal to improve the International Classification of Diseases ICD-11 diagnostic criteria for obesity based on three dimensions, namely etiology, degree of adiposity, and health risks. The body mass index as a unique measurement of obesity does not reflect the whole complexity of the disease. Obesity complications are mainly determined by 2 pathological processes, i.e., physical forces (fat mass disease) as well as endocrine and immune responses (sick fat disease), which are embedded in a cultural and physical context leading to a specific ABCD stage.

Assessing the impact of the Barbados sugar-sweetened beverage tax on beverage sales: an observational study

Background

The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax.

Methods

We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks.

Results

We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs.

Conclusions

This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12966-019-0776-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

DOHaD in science and society: emergent opportunities and novel responsibilities

The field of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) has grown considerably in recent decades and is receiving increasing recognition from health policymakers. Today, DOHaD research aims to offer a comprehensive perspective on health and disease that traces how different life experiences shape health and disease risks over the entire life course. This integrative perspective opens up distinct possibilities for improving health. At the same time, it raises questions regarding the specific social responsibilities of DOHaD as a field and about possible pathways to a socially just and scientifically robust implementation of DOHaD knowledge in society. In this article, we review the history and key characteristics of DOHaD as a field of scientific knowledge production. We argue that based on its key assumptions - that life circumstances, health and disease are closely linked on a molecular scale - DOHaD is an inherently political research field. When tracing how life environments affect health and disease, it is of utmost social and political importance to specify how DOHaD understands and frames these life environments, which aspects of life worlds are included and which excluded, and how research results are interpreted and translated into health recommendations at individual, societal and policy levels. We suggest a number of ways by which the DOHaD community can constructively and responsibly meet the demands that these inherent characteristics place on knowledge production and dissemination in the field.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Integrated management of non-communicable diseases in low-income settings: palliative care, primary care and community health synergies

Palliative care is recognised as a fundamental component of Universal Health Coverage (UHC), which individual countries, led by the United Nations and the WHO, are committed to achieving worldwide by 2030-Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.8. As the incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) increases, their prevention and control are the central aspects of UHC in these areas. While the main focus is on reducing premature mortality from NCDs (SDG 3.4), palliative care is becoming increasingly important in LMICs, in which 80% of the need is found. This paper discusses the challenges of providing comprehensive NCD management in LMICs, the role of palliative care in addressing the huge and growing burden of serious health-related suffering, and also its scope for leveraging various aspects of primary care NCD management. Drawing on experiences in India and Nepal, and particularly a project on the India-Nepal border in which palliative care, community health and primary care-led NCD management are being integrated, we explore the synergies arising and describe a model where palliative care is integral to the whole spectrum of NCD management, from promotion and prevention, through treatment, rehabilitation and palliation. We believe this model could provide a framework for integrated NCD management more generally in rural India and Nepal and also other LMICs as they work to make NCD management as part of UHC a reality.

NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

The third UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) on Sept 27, 2018, will review national and global progress towards the prevention and control of NCDs, and provide an opportunity to renew, reinforce, and enhance commitments to reduce their burden. NCD Countdown 2030 is an independent collaboration to inform policies that aim to reduce the worldwide burden of NCDs, and to ensure accountability towards this aim. In 2016, an estimated 40·5 million (71%) of the 56·9 million worldwide deaths were from NCDs. Of these, an estimated 1·7 million (4% of NCD deaths) occurred in people younger than 30 years of age, 15·2 million (38%) in people aged between 30 years and 70 years, and 23·6 million (58%) in people aged 70 years and older. An estimated 32·2 million NCD deaths (80%) were due to cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes, and another 8·3 million (20%) were from other NCDs. Women in 164 (88%) and men in 165 (89%) of 186 countries and territories had a higher probability of dying before 70 years of age from an NCD than from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions combined. Globally, the lowest risks of NCD mortality in 2016 were seen in high-income countries in Asia-Pacific, western Europe, and Australasia, and in Canada. The highest risks of dying from NCDs were observed in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, and, for men, in central Asia and eastern Europe. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4-a one-third reduction, relative to 2015 levels, in the probability of dying between 30 years and 70 years of age from cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by 2030-will be achieved in 35 countries (19%) for women, and 30 (16%) for men, if these countries maintain or surpass their 2010-2016 rate of decline in NCD mortality. Most of these are high-income countries with already-low NCD mortality, and countries in central and eastern Europe. An additional 50 (27%) countries for women and 35 (19%) for men are projected to achieve such a reduction in the subsequent decade, and thus, with slight acceleration of decline, could meet the 2030 target. 86 (46%) countries for women and 97 (52%) for men need implementation of policies that substantially increase the rates of decline. Mortality from the four NCDs included in SDG target 3.4 has stagnated or increased since 2010 among women in 15 (8%) countries and men in 24 (13%) countries. NCDs and age groups other than those included in the SDG target 3.4 are responsible for a higher risk of death in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Substantial reduction of NCD mortality requires policies that considerably reduce tobacco and alcohol use and blood pressure, and equitable access to efficacious and high-quality preventive and curative care for acute and chronic NCDs.