Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in lowering the viral inoculum to reduce susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and potentially disease severity

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation

BACKGROUND

Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumulating, can generate large-scale clusters of severe infections that could be devastating to those most at risk, whilst also conceivably leading to chains of mild or asymptomatic infections that generate widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Although this effect could be harnessed to amplify the impact of interventions that reduce symptom severity, the mechanistic representation of symptom propagation within mathematical and health economic modelling of respiratory diseases is understudied.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a novel framework for incorporating different levels of symptom propagation into models of infectious disease transmission via a single parameter, α. Varying α tunes the model from having no symptom propagation (α = 0, as typically assumed) to one where symptoms always propagate (α = 1). For parameters corresponding to three respiratory pathogens-seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2-we explored how symptom propagation impacted the relative epidemiological and health-economic performance of three interventions, conceptualised as vaccines with different actions: symptom-attenuating (labelled SA), infection-blocking (IB) and infection-blocking admitting only mild breakthrough infections (IB_MB). In the absence of interventions, with fixed underlying epidemiological parameters, stronger symptom propagation increased the proportion of cases that were severe. For SA and IB_MB, interventions were more effective at reducing prevalence (all infections and severe cases) for higher strengths of symptom propagation. For IB, symptom propagation had no impact on effectiveness, and for seasonal influenza this intervention type was more effective than SA at reducing severe infections for all strengths of symptom propagation. For pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2, at low intervention uptake, SA was more effective than IB for all levels of symptom propagation; for high uptake, SA only became more effective under strong symptom propagation. Health economic assessments found that, for SA-type interventions, the amount one could spend on control whilst maintaining a cost-effective intervention (termed threshold unit intervention cost) was very sensitive to the strength of symptom propagation.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the preferred intervention type depended on the combination of the strength of symptom propagation and uptake. Given the importance of determining robust public health responses, we highlight the need to gather further data on symptom propagation, with our modelling framework acting as a template for future analysis.

Risk factors contributing to infection with SARS-CoV-2 are modulated by sex

Throughout the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico (August-December 2020), we closely followed a cohort of n = 100 healthcare workers. These workers were initially seronegative for Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and maintained close contact with patients afflicted by the disease. We explored the database of demographic, physiological and laboratory parameters of the cohort recorded at baseline to identify potential risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 at a follow-up evaluation six months later. Given that susceptibility to infection may be a systemic rather than a local property, we hypothesized that a multivariate statistical analysis, such as MANOVA, may be an appropriate statistical approach. Our results indicate that susceptibility to infection with SARS-CoV-2 is modulated by sex. For men, different physiological states appear to exist that predispose to or protect against infection, whereas for women, we did not find evidence for divergent physiological states. Intriguingly, male participants who remained uninfected throughout the six-month observation period, had values for mean arterial pressure and waist-to-hip ratio that exceeded the normative reference range. We hypothesize that certain risk factors that worsen the outcome of COVID-19 disease, such as being overweight or having high blood pressure, may instead offer some protection against infection with SARS-CoV-2.

Bioinformatic analysis of defective viral genomes in SARS-CoV-2 and its impact on population infection characteristics

DVGs (Defective Viral Genomes) are prevalent in RNA virus infections. In this investigation, we conducted an analysis of high-throughput sequencing data and observed widespread presence of DVGs in SARS-CoV-2. Comparative analysis between SARS-CoV-2 and diverse DNA viruses revealed heightened susceptibility to damage and increased sequencing sample heterogeneity within the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Whole-genome sequencing depth variability analysis exhibited a higher coefficient of variation for SARS-CoV-2, while DVG analysis indicated a significant proportion of recombination sites, signifying notable genome heterogeneity and suggesting that a large proportion of assembled virus particles contain incomplete RNA sequences. Moreover, our investigation explored the sequencing depth and DVG content differences among various strains. Our findings revealed that as the virus evolves, there is a notable increase in the proportion of intact genomes within virus particles, as evidenced by third-generation sequencing data. Specifically, the proportion of intact genome in the Omicron strain surpassed that of the Delta and Alpha strains. This observation effectively elucidates the heightened infectiousness of the Omicron strain compared to the Delta and Alpha strains. We also postulate that this improvement in completeness stems from enhanced virus assembly capacity, as the Omicron strain can promptly facilitate the binding of RNA and capsid protein, thereby reducing the exposure time of vulnerable virus RNA in the host environment and significantly mitigating its degradation. Finally, employing mathematical modeling, we simulated the impact of DVG effects under varying environmental factors on infection characteristics and population evolution. Our findings provide an explanation for the close association between symptom severity and the extent of virus invasion, as well as the substantial disparity in population infection characteristics caused by the same strain under distinct environmental conditions. This study presents a novel approach for future virus research and vaccine development.

Epidemiological characteristics of respiratory viruses in children during the COVID-19 epidemic in Chengdu, China

IMPORTANCE

During the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic, the Chinese government launched and used a series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including banning social gatherings, wearing face masks, home isolation, and maintaining hand hygiene, to control the disease spread. Whether and how NPIs influence other respiratory viruses in children remain unclear. In this article, we analyzed relative data and found that the number of samples and positive proportion of respiratory viruses decreased significantly compared with that before the epidemic. Clinicians and public health policymakers should pay attention to changes in the epidemic trends and types of respiratory viruses and maintain monitoring of respiratory-related viruses to avoid possible abnormal rebounds and epidemic outbreaks of these viruses.

Clinical and laboratory considerations: determining an antibody-based composite correlate of risk for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 or severe COVID-19

Much of the global population now has some level of adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 induced by exposure to the virus (natural infection), vaccination, or a combination of both (hybrid immunity). Key questions that subsequently arise relate to the duration and the level of protection an individual might expect based on their infection and vaccination history. A multi-component composite correlate of risk (CoR) could inform individuals and stakeholders about protection and aid decision making. This perspective evaluates the various elements that need to be accommodated in the development of an antibody-based composite CoR for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 or development of severe COVID-19, including variation in exposure dose, transmission route, viral genetic variation, patient factors, and vaccination status. We provide an overview of antibody dynamics to aid exploration of the specifics of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. We further discuss anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays, sample matrices, testing formats, frequency of sampling and the optimal time point for such sampling. While the development of a composite CoR is challenging, we provide our recommendations for each of these key areas and highlight areas that require further work to be undertaken.

Propylene glycol inactivates respiratory viruses and prevents airborne transmission

Viruses are vulnerable as they transmit between hosts, and we aimed to exploit this critical window. We found that the ubiquitous, safe, inexpensive and biodegradable small molecule propylene glycol (PG) has robust virucidal activity. Propylene glycol rapidly inactivates a broad range of viruses including influenza A, SARS-CoV-2 and rotavirus and reduces disease burden in mice when administered intranasally at concentrations commonly found in nasal sprays. Most critically, vaporised PG efficiently abolishes influenza A virus and SARS-CoV-2 infectivity within airborne droplets, potently preventing infection at levels well below those tolerated by mammals. We present PG vapour as a first-in-class non-toxic airborne virucide that can prevent transmission of existing and emergent viral pathogens, with clear and immediate implications for public health.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low-frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is partially maintained among repeated serial samples from the same host, it can transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Relatively preserved functional immune capacity with standard COVID-19 vaccine regimen in people living with HIV

Introduction

People living with HIV (PLWH) are at a higher risk of severe disease with SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. COVID-19 vaccines are effective in most PLWH. However, suboptimal immune responses to the standard two-shot regimen are a concern, especially for those with moderate to severe immunodeficiency. An additional dose is recommended as part of the extended primary series in Taiwan. Herein, we study the efficacy of this additional shot in PLWH with mild immunodeficiency compared to that in healthy non-HIV people.

Methods

In total, 72 PLWH that were asymptomatic or with mild immunodeficiency (CD4 counts ≥200/mm3) and suppressed virology, and 362 healthcare workers of our hospital were enrolled. None of the participants had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. They received mRNA-1273 and ChAdOx1 vaccines. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing and anti-Spike IgG antibodies, and SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses were evaluated.

Results

The standard two-shot regimen elicited lower responses in PLWH than the healthcare workers without HIV infection, although the difference was statistically insignificant. They had comparable levels of neutralizing and anti-Spike antibodies and comparable effector CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses. The third shot boosted the SARS-CoV-2 immunity significantly more with better antibody responses and higher IFN-γ and IL-2 responses of the CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in PLWH compared to those without HIV. Upon in vitro stimulation with extracted Wuhan strain SARS-CoV-2 proteins, CD8+ T cells from PLWH after 3 shots had more durable effector responses than the non-HIV controls with extended time of stimulation.

Conclusion

This subtle difference between PLWH and non-HIV people implied immune exhaustion with two shots in non-HIV people. Slightly compromised immunity in PLWH indeed preserved the functional capacity for further response to the third shot or natural infection.

XBB.1.5 Kraken cracked: Gibbs energies of binding and biosynthesis of the XBB.1.5 variant of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 Hydra with many heads (variants) has been causing the COVID-19 pandemic for 3 years. The appearance of every new head (SARS-CoV-2 variant) causes a new pandemic wave. The last in the series is the XBB.1.5 "Kraken" variant. In the general public (social media) and in the scientific community (scientific journals), during the last several weeks since the variant has appeared, the question was raised of whether the infectivity of the new variant will be greater. This article attempts to provide the answer. Analysis of thermodynamic driving forces of binding and biosynthesis leads to the conclusion that infectivity of the XBB.1.5 variant could be increased to a certain extent. The pathogenicity of the XBB.1.5 variant seems to be unchanged compared to the other Omicron variants.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases: a controlled interrupted time-series study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs. We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases.

METHODS

Data on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010-2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases. The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) level in China, then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified. The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.45‒7.42) avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion (95% CI 1.18‒2.57) avoided hospital expenditures in 2020. There were 4.52 million (95% CI 3.00‒6.63) avoided cases for children and adolescents, corresponding to 88.2% of total avoided cases. The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza [avoided percentage (AP): 89.3%; 95% CI 84.5‒92.6]. Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers.

CONCLUSIONS

NPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases, with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status. These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.

Risk Factors of Severe COVID-19: A Review of Host, Viral and Environmental Factors

The clinical course and outcome of COVID-19 are highly variable, ranging from asymptomatic infections to severe disease and death. Understanding the risk factors of severe COVID-19 is relevant both in the clinical setting and at the epidemiological level. Here, we provide an overview of host, viral and environmental factors that have been shown or (in some cases) hypothesized to be associated with severe clinical outcomes. The factors considered in detail include the age and frailty, genetic polymorphisms, biological sex (and pregnancy), co- and superinfections, non-communicable comorbidities, immunological history, microbiota, and lifestyle of the patient; viral genetic variation and infecting dose; socioeconomic factors; and air pollution. For each category, we compile (sometimes conflicting) evidence for the association of the factor with COVID-19 outcomes (including the strength of the effect) and outline possible action mechanisms. We also discuss the complex interactions between the various risk factors.

Changes in endemic patterns of respiratory syncytial virus infection in pediatric patients under the pressure of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in Beijing, China

A series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was launched in Beijing, China, on January 24, 2020, to control coronavirus disease 2019. To reveal the roles of NPIs on the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), respiratory specimens collected from children with acute respiratory tract infection between July 2017 and Dec 2021 in Beijing were screened by capillary electrophoresis-based multiplex PCR (CEMP) assay. Specimens positive for RSV were subjected to a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and genotyped by G gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis using iqtree v1.6.12. The parallel and fixed (paraFix) mutations were analyzed with the R package sitePath. Clinical data were compared using SPSS 22.0 software. Before NPIs launched, each RSV endemic season started from October/November to February/March of the next year in Beijing. After that, the RSV positive rate abruptly dropped from 31.93% in January to 4.39% in February 2020; then, a dormant state with RSV positive rates ≤1% from March to September, a nearly dormant state in October (2.85%) and November (2.98%) and a delayed endemic season in 2020, and abnormal RSV positive rates remaining at approximately 10% in summer until September 2021 were detected. Finally, an endemic RSV season returned in October 2021. There was a game between Subtypes A and B, and RSV-A replaced RSV-B in July 2021 to become the dominant subtype. Six RSV-A and eight RSV-B paraFix mutations were identified on G. The percentage of severe pneumonia patients decreased to 40.51% after NPIs launched. NPIs launched in Beijing seriously interfered with the endemic season of RSV.

Statistical analysis supports UTR (untranslated region) deletion theory in SARS-CoV-2

It was noticed that the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced a significant declination in the early stage of the epidemic. We suspect that the sharp deterioration of virus toxicity is related to the deletion of the untranslated region (UTR) of the virus genome. It was found that the genome length of SARS-CoV-2 engaged a significant truncation due to UTR deletion after a mega-sequence analysis. Sequence similarity analysis further indicated that short UTR strains originated from its long UTR ancestors after an irreversible deletion. A good correlation was discovered between genome length and mortality, which demonstrated that the deletion of the virus UTR significantly affected the toxicity of the virus. This correlation was further confirmed in a significance analysis of the genetic influence on the clinical outcomes. The viral genome length of hospitalized patients was significantly more extensive than that of asymptomatic patients. In contrast, the viral genome length of asymptomatic was considerably longer than that of ordinary patients with symptoms. A genome-level mutation scanning was performed to systematically evaluate the influence of mutations at each position on virulence. The results indicated that UTR deletion was the primary driving force in alternating virus virulence in the early evolution. In the end, we proposed a mathematical model to explain why this UTR deletion was not continuous.

SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with risk of transmission to household and community contacts

Background

Factors that lead to successful SARS-CoV-2 transmission are still not well described. We investigated the association between a case’s viral load and the risk of transmission to contacts in the context of other exposure-related factors.

Methods

Data were generated through routine testing and contact tracing at a large university. Case viral loads were obtained from cycle threshold values associated with a positive polymerase chain reaction test result from October 1, 2020 to April 15, 2021. Cases were included if they had at least one contact who tested 3–14 days after the exposure. Case-contact pairs were formed by linking index cases with contacts. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate differences in proportions of contacts testing positive. Generalized estimating equation models with a log link were used to evaluate whether viral load and other exposure-related factors were associated with a contact testing positive.

Results

Median viral load among the 212 cases included in the study was 5.6 (1.8–10.4) log₁₀ RNA copies per mL of saliva. Among 365 contacts, 70 (19%) tested positive following their exposure; 36 (51%) were exposed to a case that was asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic on the day of exposure. The proportion of contacts that tested positive increased monotonically with index case viral load (12%, 23% and 25% corresponding to < 5, 5–8 and > 8 log₁₀ copies per mL, respectively; X² = 7.18, df = 2, p = 0.03). Adjusting for cough, time between test and exposure, and physical contact, the risk of transmission to a close contact was significantly associated with viral load (RR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.22–1.32).

Conclusions

Further research is needed to understand whether these relationships persist for newer variants. For those variants whose transmission advantage is mediated through a high viral load, public health measures could be scaled accordingly. Index cases with higher viral loads could be prioritized for contact tracing and recommendations to quarantine contacts could be made according to the likelihood of transmission based on risk factors such as viral load.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07663-1.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct outbreaks exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is stable among repeated serial samples from the same host, is transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Time trends in social contacts of individuals according to comorbidity and vaccination status, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

As we are confronted with more transmissible/severe variants with immune escape and the waning of vaccine efficacy, it is particularly relevant to understand how the social contacts of individuals at greater risk of COVID-19 complications evolved over time. We described time trends in social contacts of individuals according to comorbidity and vaccination status before and during the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec, Canada.

METHODS

We used data from CONNECT, a repeated cross-sectional population-based survey of social contacts conducted before (2018/2019) and during the pandemic (April 2020 to July 2021). We recruited non-institutionalized adults from Quebec, Canada, by random digit dialling. We used a self-administered web-based questionnaire to measure the number of social contacts of participants (two-way conversation at a distance ≤2 m or a physical contact, irrespective of masking). We compared the mean number of contacts/day according to the comorbidity status of participants (pre-existing medical conditions with symptoms/medication in the past 12 months) and 1-dose vaccination status during the third wave. All analyses were performed using weighted generalized linear models with a Poisson distribution and robust variance.

RESULTS

A total of 1441 and 5185 participants with and without comorbidities, respectively, were included in the analyses. Contacts significantly decreased from a mean of 6.1 (95%CI 4.9-7.3) before the pandemic to 3.2 (95%CI 2.5-3.9) during the first wave among individuals with comorbidities and from 8.1 (95%CI 7.3-9.0) to 2.7 (95%CI 2.2-3.2) among individuals without comorbidities. Individuals with comorbidities maintained fewer contacts than those without comorbidities in the second wave, with a significant difference before the Christmas 2020/2021 holidays (2.9 (95%CI 2.5-3.2) vs 3.9 (95%CI 3.5-4.3); P<0.001). During the third wave, contacts were similar for individuals with (4.1, 95%CI 3.4-4.7) and without comorbidities (4.5, 95%CI 4.1-4.9; P=0.27). This could be partly explained by individuals with comorbidities vaccinated with their first dose who increased their contacts to the level of those without comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

It will be important to closely monitor COVID-19-related outcomes and social contacts by comorbidity and vaccination status to inform targeted or population-based interventions (e.g., booster doses of the vaccine).

Initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with disease severity: a retrospective cohort study

Background

We assessed the association between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load and hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and in-hospital mortality.

Methods

All SARS-CoV-2–positive persons with a combined nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab that was collected between 17 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 in public health testing facilities were included.

Results

From 20 207 SARS-CoV-2–positive persons, 310 (1.5%) were hospitalized within 30 days. High viral loads (crossing point [Cp] <25) were associated with an increased risk of hospitalization as compared to low viral loads (Cp >30), adjusted for age and sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.57 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.11–2.26]). The same association was seen for ICU admission (aOR, 7.06 [95% CI, 2.15–43.57]). The median [interquartile range] Cp value of the 17 patients who died in hospital was significantly lower compared to the 226 survivors (22.7 [3.4] vs 25.0 [5.2]).

Conclusions

Higher initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with an increased risk of hospital admission, ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality. Our findings emphasize the added value of reporting SARS-CoV-2 viral load or cycle threshold/Cp values to identify persons who are at the highest risk of adverse outcomes such as hospital or ICU admission and who therefore may benefit from more intensive monitoring or early initiation of antiviral therapy.

Metrics to relate COVID-19 wastewater data to clinical testing dynamics

Wastewater surveillance has emerged as a useful tool in the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While wastewater surveillance has been applied at various scales to monitor population-level COVID-19 dynamics, there is a need for quantitative metrics to interpret wastewater data in the context of public health trends. 24-hour composite wastewater samples were collected from March 2020 through May 2021 from a Massachusetts wastewater treatment plant and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were measured using RT-qPCR. The relationship between wastewater copy numbers of SARS-CoV-2 gene fragments and COVID-19 clinical cases and deaths varies over time. We demonstrate the utility of three new metrics to monitor changes in COVID-19 epidemiology: (1) the ratio between wastewater copy numbers of SARS-CoV-2 gene fragments and clinical cases (WC ratio), (2) the time lag between wastewater and clinical reporting, and (3) a transfer function between the wastewater and clinical case curves. The WC ratio increases after key events, providing insight into the balance between disease spread and public health response. Time lag and transfer function analysis showed that wastewater data preceded clinically reported cases in the first wave of the pandemic but did not serve as a leading indicator in the second wave, likely due to increased testing capacity, which allows for more timely case detection and reporting. These three metrics could help further integrate wastewater surveillance into the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.

Modelling policy combinations of vaccination and transmission suppression of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil required a phased program, with priorities for age groups, health workers, and vulnerable people. Social distancing and isolation interventions have been essential to mitigate the advance of the pandemic in several countries. We developed a mathematical model capable of capturing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination aligned with social distancing, isolation measures, and vaccination. Surveillance data from the city of Rio de Janeiro provided a case study to analyze possible scenarios, including non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination in the epidemic scenario. Our results demonstrate that the combination of vaccination and policies of transmission suppression potentially lowered the number of hospitalized cases by 380+ and 66+ thousand cases, respectively, compared to an absence of such policies. On top of transmission suppression-only policies, vaccination impacted more than 230+ thousand averted hospitalized cases and 43+ thousand averted deaths. Therefore, health surveillance activities should be maintained along with vaccination planning in scheduled groups until a large vaccinated coverage is reached. Furthermore, this analytical framework enables evaluation of such scenarios.

Plant-Based Support of Respiratory Health during Viral Outbreaks

Respiratory viruses are linked to major epidemic events that have plagued humans through recorded history and possibly much earlier, ranging from common colds, influenza, and coronavirus infections to measles. However, difficulty in developing effective pharmaceutical solutions to treat infected individuals has hindered efforts to manage and minimize respiratory viral outbreaks and the associated mortality. Here we highlight a series of botanical interventions with different and often overlapping putative mechanisms of action to support the respiratory system, for which the bioactive pharmacophore was suggested and the initial structure-activity relationships have been explored (Bupleurum spp., Glycyrrhiza spp., Andrographis spp.), have been proposed with uncertainty (Echinacea spp., Zingiber spp., Verbascum spp., Marrubium spp.), or remained to be elucidated (Sambucus spp., Urtica spp.). Investigating these metabolites and their botanical sources holds potential to uncover new mediators of the respiratory health outcomes as well as molecular targets for future break-through therapeutic interventions targeting respiratory viral outbreaks.

Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study

During the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including school closures, workplace closures and social distancing policies have been employed worldwide to reduce transmission and prevent local outbreaks. However, transmission and the effectiveness of NPIs depend strongly on age-related factors including heterogeneities in contact patterns and pathophysiology. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a branching process model for assessing the risk that an infectious case arriving in a new location will initiate a local outbreak, accounting for the age distribution of the host population. We show that the risk of a local outbreak depends on the age of the index case, and we explore the effects of NPIs targeting individuals of different ages. Social distancing policies that reduce contacts outside of schools and workplaces and target individuals of all ages are predicted to reduce local outbreak risks substantially, whereas school closures have a more limited impact. In the scenarios considered here, when different NPIs are used in combination the risk of local outbreaks can be eliminated. We also show that heightened surveillance of infectious individuals reduces the level of NPIs required to prevent local outbreaks, particularly if enhanced surveillance of symptomatic cases is combined with efforts to find and isolate nonsymptomatic infected individuals. Our results reflect real-world experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which combinations of intense NPIs have reduced transmission and the risk of local outbreaks. The general modelling framework that we present can be used to estimate local outbreak risks during future epidemics of a range of pathogens, accounting fully for age-related factors.

A review of the safety and efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines

Vaccination is the most effective and feasible way to contain the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The rapid development of effective COVID-19 vaccines is an extraordinary achievement. This study reviewed the efficacy/effectiveness, immunogenicity, and safety profile of the 12 most progressed COVID-19 vaccines and discussed the challenges and prospects of the vaccine-based approaches in a global crisis. Overall, most of the current vaccines have shown safety and efficacy/effectiveness during actual clinical trials or in the real-world studies, indicating a development of pandemic control. However, many challenges are faced by pandemic control in terms of maximizing the effect of vaccines, such as rapid vaccine coverage, strategies to address variants with immune escape capability, and surveillance of vaccine safety in the medium- and long-terms.

SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in hospitals and long-term care facilities in Germany: a national observational study

Background

Outbreaks of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in hospitals and long-term care facilities (LTCFs) pose serious public health threats. We analysed how frequency and size of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in hospitals and LTCFs have altered since the beginning of the pandemic, in particular since the start of the vaccination campaign.

Methods

We used mandatory notification data on SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany and stratified by outbreak cases in hospitals and LTCFs. German vaccination coverage data were analysed. We studied the association of the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and outbreak cases with SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany throughout the four pandemic waves. We built also counterfactual scenarios with the first pandemic wave as the baseline.

Findings

By 21 September 2021, there were 4,147,387 SARS-CoV-2 notified cases since March 2020. About 20% of these cases were reported as being related to an outbreak, with 1% of the cases in hospitals and 4% in LTCFs. The median number of outbreak cases in the different phases was smaller (≤5) in hospitals than in LTCFs (>10). In the first and second pandemic waves, we observed strong associations in both facility types between SARS-CoV-2 outbreak cases and total number of notified SARS-CoV-2 cases. However, during the third pandemic wave we observed a decline in outbreak cases in both facility types and only a weak association between outbreak cases and all cases.

Interpretation

The vaccination campaign and non-pharmaceutical interventions have been able to protect vulnerable risk groups in hospitals and LTCFs.

Funding

No specific funding.

Predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection following high-risk exposure

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are recommended for COVID-19 prevention. However, the effectiveness of NPIs in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains poorly quantified.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative design case-control study enrolling cases (testing positive for SARS-CoV-2) and controls (testing negative) with molecular SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic test results reported to California Department of Public Health between 24 February-12 November, 2021. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of case status among participants who reported contact with an individual known or suspected to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 ("high-risk exposure") ≤14 days before testing.

RESULTS

751 of 1448 cases (52%) and 255 of 1443 controls (18%) reported high-risk exposures ≤14 days before testing. Adjusted odds of case status were 3.02-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.75-5.22) higher when high-risk exposures occurred with household members (vs. other contacts), 2.10-fold (1.05-4.21) higher when exposures occurred indoors (vs. outdoors only), and 2.15-fold (1.27-3.67) higher when exposures lasted ≥3 hours (vs. shorter durations) among unvaccinated and partially-vaccinated individuals; excess risk associated with such exposures was mitigated among fully-vaccinated individuals. Cases were less likely than controls to report mask usage during high-risk exposures (aOR=0.50 [0.29-0.85]). The adjusted odds of case status was lower for fully-vaccinated (aOR=0.25 [0.15-0.43]) participants compared to unvaccinated participants. Benefits of mask usage were greatest among unvaccinated and partially-vaccinated participants, and in interactions involving non-household contacts or interactions occurring without physical contact.

CONCLUSIONS

NPIs reduced the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection following high-risk exposure. Vaccine effectiveness was substantial for partially and fully vaccinated persons.

Contrasting SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Singapore: cohort studies in migrant workers and the general population

Importance

Since January 2020, Singapore has implemented comprehensive measures to suppress SARS-CoV-2. Despite this, the country has experienced contrasting epidemics, with limited transmission in the community and explosive outbreaks in migrant worker dormitories.

Objective

To estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence among migrant workers and the general population in Singapore.

Design

Prospective serological cohort studies.

Setting

Two cohort studies — in a migrant worker dormitory and in the general population in Singapore.

Participants

478 residents of a SARS-CoV-2-affected migrant worker dormitory were followed up between May and July 2020, with blood samples collected on recruitment and after 2 and 6 weeks. In addition, 937 community-dwelling adult Singapore residents, for whom pre-pandemic sera were available, were recruited. These individuals also provided a serum sample on recruitment in November/December 2020.

Exposure

Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in a densely populated migrant worker dormitory and in the general population.

Main outcomes and measures

The main outcome measures were the incidences of SARS-CoV-2 infection in migrant workers and in the general population, as determined by the detection of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and adjusting for assay sensitivity and specificity using a Bayesian modeling framework.

Results

No evidence of community SARS-CoV-2 exposure was found in Singapore prior to September 2019. It was estimated that < 2 per 1000 adult residents in the community were infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 (cumulative seroprevalence: 0.16%; 95% CrI: 0.008–0.72%). Comparison with comprehensive national case notification data suggested that around 1 in 4 infections in the general population were associated with symptoms. In contrast, in the migrant worker cohort, almost two-thirds had been infected by July 2020 (cumulative seroprevalence: 63.8%; 95% CrI: 57.9–70.3%); no symptoms were reported in almost all of these infections.

Conclusions and relevance

Our findings demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 suppression is possible with strict and rapid implementation of border restrictions, case isolation, contact tracing, quarantining, and social-distancing measures. However, the risk of large-scale epidemics in densely populated environments requires specific consideration in preparedness planning. Prioritization of these settings in vaccination strategies should minimize the risk of future resurgences and potential spillover of transmission to the wider community.

COVID-19 in Pregnancy: Occupations With Higher Density of Population Exposure Associated With More Severe Disease

OBJECTIVE

To define the symptomatology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy and associations between occupation, sociodemographic factors, and comorbidities with the severity of COVID-19 disease in pregnancy in all trimesters, regardless of hospitalization.

METHODS

We studied a retrospective cohort of a public health surveillance sample of persons with COVID-19 infection diagnosed during pregnancy. Data was collected March 2020 to August 2020 regarding symptoms, disease severity, comorbidities, obstetric history, and occupation.

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-three individuals were identified. Constitutional (64%) and lower respiratory symptoms (61%) were most common. Seventeen individuals (13.6%) were hospitalized, and one person (0.7%) died due to COVID-19. Risk factors for severe disease were age and an occupation that had high intensity exposure to people.

CONCLUSIONS

Occupational exposure is a risk factor for severe COVID-19 disease in pregnancy, justifying policy measures to ensure protection of this vulnerable population.

Face mask use and physical distancing before and after mandatory masking: No evidence on risk compensation in public waiting lines

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory face mask usage triggered a heated debate. A major point of controversy is whether community use of masks creates a false sense of security that would diminish physical distancing, counteracting any potential direct benefit from masking. We conducted a randomized field experiment in Berlin, Germany, to investigate how masks affect distancing and whether the mask effect interacts with the introduction of an indoor mask mandate. Joining waiting lines in front of stores, we measured distances kept from the experimenter in two treatment conditions - the experimenter wore a mask in one and no face covering in the other - in two time spans - before and after mask use becoming mandatory in stores. We find no evidence that mandatory masking has a negative effect on distance kept toward a masked person. To the contrary, masks significantly increase distancing and the effect does not differ between the two periods. However, we show that after the mandate distances are shorter in locations where more non-essential stores, which were closed before the mandate, had reopened. We argue that the relaxations in general restrictions that coincided with the mask mandate led individuals to reduce other precautions, like keeping a safe distance.

[Reflections on the Global Pandemic of COVID-19 and the Response Strategies]

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to ravage the world, posing great challenges to the public health system and threatening the health and survival of humans. The outbreak of COVID-19 leaves us with much to reflect on and calls on our attention to respiratory infectious diseases, especially new outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases that are zoonotic. The importance of identifying viral pathogens should be highlighted because it is related to the prevention and treatment strategy of childhood pneumonia. Due to the highly infectious nature of COVID-19, the rapid mutation of the virus, and the lack of specific drugs, vaccines are currently the most effective means of prevention, and a global immune barrier must be established as soon as possible.

In Vivo protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection by ATN-161 in k18-hACE2 transgenic mice

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an infectious disease that has spread worldwide. Current treatments are limited in both availability and efficacy, such that improving our understanding of the factors that facilitate infection is urgently needed to more effectively treat infected individuals and to curb the pandemic. We and others have previously demonstrated the significance of interactions between the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, integrin α5β1, and human ACE2 to facilitate viral entry into host cells in vitro. We previously found that inhibition of integrin α5β1 by the clinically validated small peptide ATN-161 inhibits these spike protein interactions and cell infection in vitro. In continuation with our previous findings, here we have further evaluated the therapeutic potential of ATN-161 on SARS-CoV-2 infection in k18-hACE2 transgenic (SARS-CoV-2 susceptible) mice in vivo. We discovered that treatment with single or repeated intravenous doses of ATN-161 (1 mg/kg) within 48 h after intranasal inoculation with SARS-CoV-2 lead to a reduction of lung viral load, viral immunofluorescence, and improved lung histology in a majority of mice 72 h post-infection. Furthermore, ATN-161 reduced SARS-CoV-2-induced increased expression of lung integrin α5 and αv (an α5-related integrin that has also been implicated in SARS-CoV-2 interactions) as well as the C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (Cxcl10), further supporting the potential involvement of these integrins, and the anti-inflammatory potential of ATN-161, respectively, in SARS-CoV-2 infection. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating the potential therapeutic efficacy of targeting integrin α5β1 in SARS-CoV-2 infection in vivo and supports the development of ATN-161 as a novel SARS-CoV-2 therapy.

High association of COVID-19 severity with poor gut health score in Lebanese patients

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected millions of lives globally. However, the disease has presented more extreme challenges for developing countries that are experiencing economic crises. Studies on COVID-19 symptoms and gut health are scarce and have not fully analyzed possible associations between gut health and disease pathophysiology. Therefore, this study aimed to demonstrate a potential association between gut health and COVID-19 severity in the Lebanese community, which has been experiencing a severe economic crisis.

Methods

This cross-sectional study investigated SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive Lebanese patients. Participants were interviewed and gut health, COVID-19 symptoms, and different metrics were analyzed using simple and multiple logistic regression models.

Results

Analysis of the data showed that 25% of participants were asymptomatic, while an equal proportion experienced severe symptoms, including dyspnea (22.7%), oxygen need (7.5%), and hospitalization (3.1%). The mean age of the participants was 38.3 ±0.8 years, and the majority were males (63.9%), married (68.2%), and currently employed (66.7%). A negative correlation was found between gut health score and COVID-19 symptoms (Kendall’s tau-b = -0.153, P = 0.004); indicating that low gut health was associated with more severe COVID-19 cases. Additionally, participants who reported unhealthy food intake were more likely to experience severe symptoms (Kendall’s tau-b = 0.118, P = 0.049). When all items were taken into consideration, multiple ordinal logistic regression models showed a significant association between COVID-19 symptoms and each of the following variables: working status, flu-like illness episodes, and gut health score. COVID-19 severe symptoms were more common among patients having poor gut health scores (OR:1.31, 95%CI:1.07–1.61; P = 0.008), experiencing more than one episode of flu-like illness per year (OR:2.85, 95%CI:1.58–5.15; P = 0.001), and owning a job (OR:2.00, 95%CI:1.1–3.65; P = 0.023).

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first study that showed the impact of gut health and exposure to respiratory viruses on COVID-19 severity in Lebanon. These findings can facilitate combating the pandemic in Lebanon.

The social amplification and attenuation of COVID-19 risk perception shaping mask wearing behavior: A longitudinal twitter analysis

INTRODUCTION

Twitter represents a mainstream news source for the American public, offering a valuable vehicle for learning how citizens make sense of pandemic health threats like Covid-19. Masking as a risk mitigation measure became controversial in the US. The social amplification risk framework offers insight into how a risk event interacts with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural communication processes to shape Covid-19 risk perception.

METHODS

Qualitative content analysis was conducted on 7,024 mask tweets reflecting 6,286 users between January 24 and July 7, 2020, to identify how citizens expressed Covid-19 risk perception over time. Descriptive statistics were computed for (a) proportion of tweets using hyperlinks, (b) mentions, (c) hashtags, (d) questions, and (e) location.

RESULTS

Six themes emerged regarding how mask tweets amplified and attenuated Covid-19 risk: (a) severity perceptions (18.0%) steadily increased across 5 months; (b) mask effectiveness debates (10.7%) persisted; (c) who is at risk (26.4%) peaked in April and May 2020; (d) mask guidelines (15.6%) peaked April 3, 2020, with federal guidelines; (e) political legitimizing of Covid-19 risk (18.3%) steadily increased; and (f) mask behavior of others (31.6%) composed the largest discussion category and increased over time. Of tweets, 45% contained a hyperlink, 40% contained mentions, 33% contained hashtags, and 16.5% were expressed as a question.

CONCLUSIONS

Users ascribed many meanings to mask wearing in the social media information environment revealing that COVID-19 risk was expressed in a more expanded range than objective risk. The simultaneous amplification and attenuation of COVID-19 risk perception on social media complicates public health messaging about mask wearing.

Extreme immunotherapy: emergency immunology to defeat pandemics

The ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic has thrown into sharp relief the gap between modern biology's ability to investigate and respond to a novel pathogen and modern medicine's ability to marshal effective front-line interventions to limit its immediate health impact. While we have witnessed the rapid development of innovative vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 using novel molecular platforms, these have yet to alter the pandemic's long-term trajectory in all but a handful of high-income countries. Health workers at the clinical front lines have little more in their clinical armamentarium than was available a century ago-chiefly oxygen and steroids-and yet advances in modern immunology and immunotherapeutics suggest an underuse of extant and effective, if unorthodox, therapies, which we now call "Extreme Immunotherapies for Pandemics (EIPs)."

Maintaining mask momentum in transplant recipients

The widespread use of facemasks has been a crucial element in the control of the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic.  With mounting evidence for mask efficacy against respiratory infectious diseases and greater acceptability of this intervention, it is proposed that masking should continue after the pandemic has abated to protect some of our most vulnerable patients, recipients of stem cell and solid organ transplants. This may involve not only masking these high‐risk patients, but possibly their close contacts and the healthcare workers involved in their care. We review the evidence for mask efficacy in prevention of respiratory viruses other than SARS‐CoV‐2 and address the burden of disease in transplant recipients.  Although we acknowledge that there are limited data on masking to prevent infection in transplant recipients, we propose a framework for the study and implementation of routine masking as a part of infection prevention interventions after transplantation.

COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection

Scientists across disciplines, policymakers, and journalists have voiced frustration at the unprecedented polarization and misinformation around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Several false dichotomies have been used to polarize debates while oversimplifying complex issues. In this comprehensive narrative review, we deconstruct six common COVID-19 false dichotomies, address the evidence on these topics, identify insights relevant to effective pandemic responses, and highlight knowledge gaps and uncertainties. The topics of this review are: 1) Health and lives vs. economy and livelihoods, 2) Indefinite lockdown vs. unlimited reopening, 3) Symptomatic vs. asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, 4) Droplet vs. aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, 5) Masks for all vs. no masking, and 6) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection vs. no reinfection. We discuss the importance of multidisciplinary integration (health, social, and physical sciences), multilayered approaches to reducing risk ("Emmentaler cheese model"), harm reduction, smart masking, relaxation of interventions, and context-sensitive policymaking for COVID-19 response plans. We also address the challenges in understanding the broad clinical presentation of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. These key issues of science and public health policy have been presented as false dichotomies during the pandemic. However, they are hardly binary, simple, or uniform, and therefore should not be framed as polar extremes. We urge a nuanced understanding of the science and caution against black-or-white messaging, all-or-nothing guidance, and one-size-fits-all approaches. There is a need for meaningful public health communication and science-informed policies that recognize shades of gray, uncertainties, local context, and social determinants of health.

Is increased mortality by multiple exposures to COVID-19 an overseen factor when aiming for herd immunity?

BACKGROUND

Governments across the globe responded with different strategies to the COVID-19 pandemic. While some countries adopted measures, which have been perceived controversial, others pursued a strategy aiming for herd immunity. The latter is even more controversial and has been called unethical by the WHO Director-General. Inevitably, without proper control measures, viral diversity increases and multiple infectious exposures become common, when the pandemic reaches its maximum. This harbors not only a potential threat overseen by simplified theoretical arguments in support of herd immunity, but also deserves attention when assessing response measures to increasing numbers of infection.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We extend the simulation model underlying the pandemic preparedness web interface CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to study the hypothetical effect of increased morbidity and mortality due to 'multi-infections', either acquired at by successive infective contacts during the course of one infection or by a single infective contact with a multi-infected individual. The simulations are adjusted to reflect roughly the situation in the USA. We assume a phase of general contact reduction ("lockdown") at the beginning of the epidemic and additional case-isolation measures. We study the hypothetical effects of varying enhancements in morbidity and mortality, different likelihoods of multi-infected individuals to spread multi-infections and different susceptibility to multi-infections in different disease phases. It is demonstrated that multi-infections lead to a slight reduction in the number of infections, as these are more likely to get isolated due to their higher morbidity. However, the latter substantially increases the number of deaths. Furthermore, simulations indicate that a potential second lockdown can substantially decrease the epidemic peak, the number of multi-infections and deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced morbidity and mortality due to multiple disease exposure is a potential threat in the COVID-19 pandemic that deserves more attention. Particularly it underlines another facet questioning disease management strategies aiming for herd immunity.

Metrics to relate COVID-19 wastewater data to clinical testing dynamics

Wastewater surveillance has emerged as a useful tool in the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While wastewater surveillance has been applied at various scales to monitor population-level COVID-19 dynamics, there is a need for quantitative metrics to interpret wastewater data in the context of public health trends. We collected 24-hour composite wastewater samples from March 2020 through May 2021 from a Massachusetts wastewater treatment plant and measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using RT-qPCR. We show that the relationship between wastewater viral titers and COVID-19 clinical cases and deaths varies over time. We demonstrate the utility of three new metrics to monitor changes in COVID-19 epidemiology: (1) the ratio between wastewater viral titers and clinical cases (WC ratio), (2) the time lag between wastewater and clinical reporting, and (3) a transfer function between the wastewater and clinical case curves. We find that the WC ratio increases after key events, providing insight into the balance between disease spread and public health response. We also find that wastewater data preceded clinically reported cases in the first wave of the pandemic but did not serve as a leading indicator in the second wave, likely due to increased testing capacity. These three metrics could complement a framework for integrating wastewater surveillance into the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.

Repeated Exposure to Subinfectious Doses of SARS-CoV-2 May Promote T Cell Immunity and Protection against Severe COVID-19

Europe is experiencing a third wave of COVID-19 due to the spread of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants. A number of positive and negative factors constantly shape the rates of COVID-19 infections, hospitalization, and mortality. Among these factors, the rise in increasingly transmissible variants on one side and the effect of vaccinations on the other side create a picture deeply different from that of the first pandemic wave. Starting from the observation that in several European countries the number of COVID-19 infections in the second and third pandemic wave increased without a proportional rise in disease severity and mortality, we hypothesize the existence of an additional factor influencing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. This factor consists of an immune defence against severe COVID-19, provided by SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells progressively developing upon natural exposure to low virus doses present in populated environments. As suggested by recent studies, low-dose viral particles entering the respiratory and intestinal tracts may be able to induce T cell memory in the absence of inflammation, potentially resulting in different degrees of immunization. In this scenario, non-pharmaceutical interventions would play a double role, one in the short term by reducing the detrimental spreading of SARS-CoV-2 particles, and one in the long term by allowing the development of a widespread (although heterogeneous and uncontrollable) form of immune protection.