Mortality among twins and singletons in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014: a pooled analysis of data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys in 30 countries

Prevalence and adverse outcomes of twin pregnancy in Eastern Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Multiple pregnancies are much more common today than they were in the past. Twin pregnancies occur in about 4% of pregnancies in Africa. Adverse pregnancy outcome was more common in twin pregnancy than in singleton pregnancy. There is no pooled evidence on the burden and adverse pregnancy outcome of twin pregnancy in eastern Africa. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the prevalence and adverse pregnancy outcomes of twin pregnancies.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis covers published and unpublished studies searched from different databases (PubMed, CINAHL (EBSCO), EMBASE, DOAJ, Web of Sciences, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, SCOPUS, Google Scholar, and Google search). Finally, 34 studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. JBI checklist was used to assess the quality of included papers. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used. Data synthesis and statistical analysis were conducted using STATA Version 14 software. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. A forest plot was used to present the pooled prevalence using the random effect model.

RESULTS

The prevalence of twin pregnancy in eastern Africa was 3% [95% CI: 2, 3]. The adverse pregnancy outcomes like neonatal intensive care unit admission (78%), low birth weight (44%), low APGAR score (33%), prematurity (32%), stillbirth (30%), neonatal mortality (12%) and maternal complications like hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (25%), postpartum hemorrhage (7%), Cesarean section (37%), premature rupture of membrane (12%) and maternal mortality are more common among twin pregnancy than singleton pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

One in every 33 children born a twin in east Africa; admission to neonatal intensive care unit, low birth weight, low APGAR score, prematurity, stillbirth, neonatal mortality and maternal complications are its associated adverse birth outcomes. Since twin pregnancy is a high-risk pregnancy, special care is needed during pregnancy, labor and delivery to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Identifying determinants of under-five child mortality in northern Togo

Background

Although global rates of under-five mortality have declined, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Togo, have not achieved sufficient progress. We aimed to identify the structural and intermediary determinants associated with under-five mortality in northern Togo.

Methods

We collected population-representative cross-sectional household surveys adapted from the Demographic Household Survey (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey from women of reproductive age in northern Togo in 2018. The primary outcome was under-five mortality for children born to respondents in the 10-year period prior to the survey. We selected structural and intermediary determinants of health from the World Health Organization Conceptual Framework for Action on the Social Determinants of Health. We estimated associations between determinants and under-five mortality for births in the last 10 years (model 1 and 2) and two years (model 3) using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Of the 20 121 live births in the last 10 years, 982 (4.80%) children died prior to five years of age. Prior death of a sibling (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 5.02; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.23-5.97), maternal ethnicity (i.e. Konkomba, Temberma, Lamba, Losso, or Peul), multiple birth status (aHR = 2.27; 95% CI = 1.78-2.90), maternal age under 25 years (women <19 years: aHR = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.75-2.39; women 20-24 years: aHR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.29-1.68), lower birth interval (aHR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.31-1.74), and higher birth order (second or third born: aHR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.32-1.60; third or later born: aHR = 2.14; 95% CI = 1.74-2.63) were associated with higher hazard of under-five mortality. Female children had lower hazards of under-five mortality (aHR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.73-0.89). Under-five mortality was also lower for children born in the last two years (n = 4852) whose mothers received any (aHR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.30-0.78) or high quality (aHR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.29-0.88) prenatal care.

Conclusion

Compared to previous DHS estimates, under-five mortality has decreased in Togo, but remains higher than other LMICs. Prior death of a sibling and several intermediary determinants were associated with a higher risk of mortality, while receipt of prenatal care reduced that risk. These findings have significant implications on reducing disparities related to mortality through strengthening maternal and child health care delivery.

Inequalities in use of hospitals for childbirth among rural women in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of 18 countries using Demographic and Health Survey data

INTRODUCTION

Rising facility births in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) mask inequalities in higher-level emergency care-typically in hospitals. Limited research has addressed hospital use in women at risk of or with complications, such as high parity, linked to poverty and rurality, for whom hospital care is essential. We aimed to address this gap, by comparatively assessing hospital use in rural SSA by wealth and parity.

METHODS

Countries in SSA with a Demographic and Health Survey since 2015 were included. We assessed rural hospital childbirth stratifying by wealth (wealthier/poorer) and parity (nulliparity/high parity≥5), and their combination. We computed percentages, 95% CIs and percentage-point differences, by stratifier level. To compare hospital use across countries, we produced a composite index, including six utilisation and equality indicators.

RESULTS

This cross-sectional study included 18 countries. In all, a minority of rural women used hospitals for childbirth (2%-29%). There were disparities by wealth and parity, and poorer, high-parity women used hospitals least. The poorer/wealthier difference in utilisation among high-parity women ranged between 1.3% (Mali) and 13.2% (Rwanda). We found use and equality of hospitals in rural settings were greater in Malawi and Liberia, followed by Zimbabwe, the Gambia and Rwanda.

DISCUSSION

Inequalities identified across 18 countries in rural SSA indicate poor, higher-risk women of high parity had lower use of hospitals for childbirth. Specific policy attention is urgently needed for this group where disadvantage accumulates.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of dizygotic twinning illuminates genetic regulation of female fecundity

STUDY QUESTION

Which genetic factors regulate female propensity for giving birth to spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We identified four new loci, GNRH1, FSHR, ZFPM1, and IPO8, in addition to previously identified loci, FSHB and SMAD3.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The propensity to give birth to DZ twins runs in families. Earlier, we reported that FSHB and SMAD3 as associated with DZ twinning and female fertility measures.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of mothers of spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins (8265 cases, 264 567 controls) and of independent DZ twin offspring (26 252 cases, 417 433 controls).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Over 700 000 mothers of DZ twins, twin individuals and singletons from large cohorts in Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and the USA were carefully screened to exclude twins born after use of ARTs. Genetic association analyses by cohort were followed by meta-analysis, phenome wide association studies (PheWAS), in silico and in vivo annotations, and Zebrafish functional validation.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

This study enlarges the sample size considerably from previous efforts, finding four genome-wide significant loci, including two novel signals and a further two novel genes that are implicated by gene level enrichment analyses. The novel loci, GNRH1 and FSHR, have well-established roles in female reproduction whereas ZFPM1 and IPO8 have not previously been implicated in female fertility. We found significant genetic correlations with multiple aspects of female reproduction and body size as well as evidence for significant selection against DZ twinning during human evolution. The 26 top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from our GWAMA in European-origin participants weakly predicted the crude twinning rates in 47 non-European populations (r = 0.23 between risk score and population prevalence, s.e. 0.11, 1-tail P = 0.058) indicating that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are needed in African and Asian populations to explore the causes of their respectively high and low DZ twinning rates. In vivo functional tests in zebrafish for IPO8 validated its essential role in female, but not male, fertility. In most regions, risk SNPs linked to known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). Top SNPs were associated with in vivo reproductive hormone levels with the top pathways including hormone ligand binding receptors and the ovulation cycle.

LARGE SCALE DATA

The full DZT GWAS summary statistics will made available after publication through the GWAS catalog (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our study only included European ancestry cohorts. Inclusion of data from Africa (with the highest twining rate) and Asia (with the lowest rate) would illuminate further the biology of twinning and female fertility.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

About one in 40 babies born in the world is a twin and there is much speculation on why twinning runs in families. We hope our results will inform investigations of ovarian response in new and existing ARTs and the causes of female infertility.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

Support for the Netherlands Twin Register came from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants, 904-61-193, 480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 911-09-032, Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI.NL, 184.021.007), Royal Netherlands Academy of Science Professor Award (PAH/6635) to DIB, European Research Council (ERC-230374), Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1) and the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health and Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951. The QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR) study was supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 443036, 442915, 442981, 496610, 496739, 552485, 552498, 1050208, 1075175). L.Y. is funded by Australian Research Council (Grant number DE200100425). The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) was supported in part by USPHS Grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA09367 and AA11886) and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA05147, DA13240, and DA024417). The Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS) was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL043851 and HL080467) and the National Cancer Institute (CA047988 and UM1CA182913), with support for genotyping provided by Amgen. Data collection in the Finnish Twin Registry has been supported by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, the Broad Institute, ENGAGE-European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology, FP7-HEALTH-F4-2007, grant agreement number 201413, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (grants AA-12502, AA-00145, AA-09203, AA15416, and K02AA018755) and the Academy of Finland (grants 100499, 205585, 118555, 141054, 264146, 308248, 312073 and 336823 to J. Kaprio). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. For NESDA, funding was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (Geestkracht program grant 10000-1002), the Center for Medical Systems Biology (CSMB, NVVO Genomics), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), VU University's Institutes for Health and Care Research (EMGO+) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, University Medical Center Groningen, Leiden University Medical Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH, ROI D0042157-01A, MH081802, Grand Opportunity grants 1 RC2 Ml-1089951 and IRC2 MH089995). Part of the genotyping and analyses were funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health. Computing was supported by BiG Grid, the Dutch e-Science Grid, which is financially supported by NWO. Work in the Del Bene lab was supported by the Programme Investissements d'Avenir IHU FOReSIGHT (ANR-18-IAHU-01). C.R. was supported by an EU Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2014 #661527). H.S. and K.S. are employees of deCODE Genetics/Amgen. The other authors declare no competing financial interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Factors influencing sex ratio at birth in Krosno, Poland

The secondary sex ratio (SSR) is a widely used descriptor that reflects the living conditions and health status during pregnancy. The aim of study was to assess the impact of maternal factors, season of birth, and air pollution with the heating season on the sex ratio at birth in the Subcarpathian population from the Krosno district, Poland. A retrospective study involving 11,587 births was occurred at the John Paul II Podkarpackie Province Hospital in Krosno between 2016 and 2020. Sex of the newborn, the season of their birth, as well as the maternal age, birth order, the interval between births, and the season of birth were analysed. Furthermore, the relationship between the SSR and the level of air pollution during the heating season was investigated. To determine the significance of differences in sex ratios, chi-square analysis and multifactorial regression were used, with a significance level set at p < 0.05. At the chi-square level, all the studied factors indicated a statistically significant relationship with the SSR. However, the regression model used shows that maternal age and birth order were the most important factors in shaping the SSR in the study group.

GWAS of Dizygotic Twinning in an Enlarged Australian Sample of Mothers of DZ Twins

Female fertility is a complex trait with age-specific changes in spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twinning and fertility. To elucidate factors regulating female fertility and infertility, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on mothers of spontaneous DZ twins (MoDZT) versus controls (3273 cases, 24,009 controls). This is a follow-up study to the Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) component of that previously reported (Mbarek et al., 2016), with a sample size almost twice that of the entire discovery sample meta-analysed in the previous article (and five times the ANZ contribution to that), resulting from newly available additional genotyping and representing a significant increase in power. We compare analyses with and without male controls and show unequivocally that it is better to include male controls who have been screened for recent family history, than to use only female controls. Results from the SNP based GWAS identified four genomewide significant signals, including one novel region, ZFPM1 (Zinc Finger Protein, FOG Family Member 1), on chromosome 16. Previous signals near FSHB (Follicle Stimulating Hormone beta subunit) and SMAD3 (SMAD Family Member 3) were also replicated (Mbarek et al., 2016). We also ran the GWAS with a dominance model that identified a further locus ADRB2 on chr 5. These results have been contributed to the International Twinning Genetics Consortium for inclusion in the next GWAS meta-analysis (Mbarek et al., in press).

Cesarean delivery rates based on time and indication using the Robson Ten-Group Classification System: Assessment at a Turkish tertiary center

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate increasing cesarean delivery (CD) rates, their causes, and changes over the years in a Turkish tertiary center using the Robson Ten-Group Classification System (RTGCS).

METHODS

Data of deliveries involving birth weight of ≥500 g or ≥24 weeks of gestation period from 2013 to 2020 were retrospectively collected and classified from the hospital digital record system using obstetric concepts and parameters described in the RTGCS.

RESULTS

The overall CD rate for all births (69051) from 2013 to 2020 was 55.5%. Groups 3, 5, and 1 were the most represented groups (29.1%, 23.9%, and 19.4%, respectively). The major contributors to the overall CD rate were Groups 5, 2, and 10 (23.8%, 9.9%, and 5.6%, respectively). Groups 2 and 4 (nullipara, multipara, single cephalic at term) had high CD rates associated with high rates of pre-labor CD (88.9% and 73.3%, respectively). The CD rate was 99.7% in Group 5, which showed recurrent CD, and 67.2% in Group 10. The overall CD rate was 60.8% in 2020 owing to the significant increase in the contributions by Groups 5, 8, and 10. The most common indication for CD was previous CD (46.1%), fetal distress (13.2%), and cephalopelvic disproportion (CPD) (8%).

CONCLUSION

Groups 1, 2, 5, and 10 were the major contributors to the overall CD rate at this tertiary center. To reduce overall CD rates, policies that reduce primary CD and support vaginal delivery after cesarean section should be established.

Epidemiology of neonatal mortality: a spatial and multilevel analysis of the 2019 mini-Ethiopian demographic and health survey data

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan African countries are a high-burden region of neonatal mortality and showed slow progress in its reduction. In developing countries, as long as the current trend of mortality persists, achieving a sustainable development target for neonatal mortality would be challenging. The aim of this study was to detect significant geographic areas and identify community and individual-level predictors of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia to draw attention to a policy.

METHODS

A weighted total sample of 24,136 mothers from the 2019 mini-Ethiopian demographic and health survey data were included in the analysis. Global Moran's I statistics was run to check the clustering of neonatal mortality and then kriging interpolation was done to predict the magnitude of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. In addition, SaTScan analysis was also executed to identify hot spot clusters of neonatal mortality. Finally, a multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to identify community and individual-level predictors of early neonatal and neonatal mortality.

RESULTS

The lifetime early neonatal and neonatal mortality among mothers in Ethiopia was 5.08 (95% CI: 4.13-6.03) and 6.54 (5.55, 7.52) per 1000 births respectively. Neonatal mortality was spatially clustered in the country and the SaTScan analysis identified significant hotspot areas of neonatal mortality in the Amhara and Afar regions and some areas of the Somali and Oromia regions. Its predicted magnitude was > 8 per 1000 births in wide areas of the Amhara and Benishangul regions. A multilevel mixed-effect logistics regression analysis identified that a lower level of maternal education, being a twin neonate, and being a male neonate were predictors of both early neonatal and neonatal mortality. Whereas, the younger age of mothers predicted neonatal mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Neonatal mortality in Ethiopia is geographically clustered and sociodemographic and obstetric factors played a significant role. Policy direction should focus on evidence-based practices like midwives-led community and facility-based continuum of care from preconception to postnatal periods to possibly reduce neonatal mortality.

Association of maternity formula supplementation during pregnancy with small for gestational age birth in Chinese newborns

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the association between maternity formula supplementation and small for gestational age (SGA) status in Chinese newborns.

METHODS

Data were from a population-based cross-sectional survey conducted in Shaanxi, Northwest China between August and December 2013. A total of 27 780 women pregnant with singletons and 356 with twins were included in this survey. Information on use of maternity formulas fortified with vitamins, folic acid, pantothenic acid, calcium, iron, zinc, and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) was collected. SGA was defined as birthweight <10th percentile of fetal growth. Generalized linear models and estimating equation models were used to estimate crude odds ratios (ORs) or adjusted ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for SGA.

RESULTS

The rate of maternity formula supplementation during the entire pregnancy was 13.0% in the overall population. There was no significant association between maternal formula supplementation during pregnancy and the risk of total SGA birth (OR: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.90-1.11; P = 0.950). However, maternity formula supplementation during pregnancy was related to a lower risk of SGA for twins (OR: 0.49; 95% CI, 0.31-0.80; P = 0.004), twin A (OR: 0.50; 95% CI, 0.25-0.98; P = 0.045), and twin B (OR: 0.48; 95% CI, 0.25-0.95; P = 0.034). Furthermore, maternity formula supplementation during the first trimester was inversely associated with the risk of SGA birth of twins (OR: 0.32; 95% CI, 0.15-0.65; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

No significant association was observed between maternity formula supplementation and total SGA birth. However, women supplemented with maternal formula during pregnancy, especially during the first trimester, may have a reduced risk of SGA birth of twins.

Survival Status, Length of Stay, and Predictors of Mortality Among Neonates Admitted in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Gurage Zone Public Hospitals

Background

Many countries need to accelerate their progress to achieve the sustainable development goal target of neonatal death. It is still high in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to assess the mortality predictors and length of hospital stay among Neonates admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Gurage zone public Hospitals.

Method

In this study, a facility-based retrospective follow-up study was applied among 375 neonates admitted to the NICU of selected public hospitals in the Gurage zone from June 1, 2019 to June 30, 2021. The researchers used Epi-Data entry 3.1 for the data entry and then exported it to STATA version 14 for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log-rank test were used to estimate and compare the survival time of categorical variables, respectively.

Result

The researchers observed about 85 (22.7% with 95%CI: 18.7, 27.2) deaths from the 2305 person-days follow-up. The median survival time was 14 days. The overall incidence density rate was 36.9 per 1000 person-days observed (95%CI: 29.8, 45.6). Perinatal asphyxia (AHR: 2.9[CI: 1.8; 4.8]), cesarean section as a mode of delivery (AHR: 1.1[CI; 1.01; 1.15]), maternal age of greater or equal to 35 years (AHR: 1.1[95% CI: 1.01, 1.15]), and twin pregnancy (AHR: 2.3[95% CI: 1.2, 4.3]) were predictors of neonatal mortality.

Conclusion

The survival rate of neonates was higher compared to other studies. So, to reduce the burden of neonatal mortality, health care providers should give special attention to twin pregnancies, neonates delivered via cesarean section, and neonates with a problem of perinatal asphyxia.

Mortality rate, carbon emissions, renewable energy and per capita income nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study exclusively contributes to the health-environment discourse by using mortality rates, carbon emissions (proxy for environmental degradation), renewable energy and real per capita income to investigate these intrinsic relationships. This study uses an unbalanced sample of 47 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005-2019 to reveal that: (1) both carbon emissions and renewable energy are associated with higher mortality rates; (2) real per capita income is associated with reducing mortality rates; (3) per capita income attenuates the effect of renewable energy on mortality rates, (4) persistency in mortalities exist; and (5) the health-environment-energy-income dynamics differ across income groups. Additionally, this study submits that the interaction of renewable energy and real per capita income dampens the positive effect of renewable energy on mortality rates and supports the argument that income levels lessen the extent of mortalities. Besides, these results vividly show that real per capita income reduces the devastating effect of renewable energy on infant and under-5 mortality rates from 0.942% to 0.09%, 2.42% to 0.55%, 1.04% to 0.09% and 2.8% to 0.64% for high and middle-income countries, respectively. This is a novel and significant contribution to the health-environment literature. Hence, real per capita income is a crucial determinant of mortality rate. Policy recommendations are discussed.

Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

The question of whether women who produce twins are more fertile than other women has been debated. Here, the authors analyze a large dataset of pre-industrial birth outcomes and find evidence against the idea of higher fertility and instead that more births lead to more twinning opportunities.

Time to under-five mortality and its predictors in rural Ethiopia: Cox-gamma shared frailty model

Background

Under-five mortality (U5M) is one of the most important and sensitive indicators of the health status of the community. Despite there having been a substantial reduction in U5M since 1990, its rate is still high in Sub-Saharan African countries. Thus, this study aimed to assess time to under-five mortality and its predictors in rural Ethiopia.

Methods

This study utilized a secondary analysis of the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A total of 9,807 weighted under-five children selected at different stages were included in the analysis. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s-gamma shared frailty models were used to estimate survival time and to identify predictors of under-five mortality, respectively. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to measure the effect size and direction of the association.

Results

The study indicated that 6.69% (95% CI: 6.13, 7.30) of children died before celebrating their fifth birthday in rural Ethiopia. Of all the deaths, the median time to death was 27 months. After controlling the effect of cluster and other confounding factors, female sex (AHR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.75), ever born greater than five children (AHR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.83), very large size at birth (AHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.03 1.71), very small size at birth (AHR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.82), twin pregnancy (AHR = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.47, 4.88), not ever breastfeeding (AHR = 11.29, 95% CI: 9.03, 14.12), unimproved latrine (AHR = 3.44, 95% CI: 1.91, 6.17), covered by health insurance (AHR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.70) were predictors of under-five mortality.

Conclusions

Still under-five mortality was high in rural Ethiopia as compared to the global under-five mortality rate. In the final model, sex of a child, the total number of children ever born, children’s size at birth, type of pregnancy, breastfeeding, type of toilet, and being covered by health insurance were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Further emphasis should be given to twin and not breastfeeding children, as well as households’ better encouraging membership of community health insurance and utilization of improved latrines.

Decomposition of factors associated with housing material inequality in under-five deaths in low and middle-income countries

Background

Low-and Medium-Income Countries (LMIC) continue to record a high burden of under-five deaths (U5D). There is a gap in knowledge of the factors contributing to housing materials inequalities in U5D. This study examined the contributions of the individual- and neighbourhood-level factors to housing materials inequalities in influencing U5D in LMIC.

Methods

We pooled data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys for 56 LMIC conducted between 2010 and 2018. In all, we analysed the data of 798,796 children living in 59,791 neighbourhoods. The outcome variable was U5D among live births within 0 to 59 months of birth. The main determinate variable was housing material types, categorised as unimproved housing materials (UHM) and improved housing materials (IHM) while the individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors are the independent variables. Data were analysed using the Fairlie decomposition analysis at α = 0.05.

Results

The overall U5D rate was 53 per 1000 children, 61 among children from houses built with UHM, and 41 among children from houses built with IHM (p < 0.001). This rate was higher among children from houses that were built with UHM in all countries except Malawi, Zambia, Lesotho, Gambia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Maldives, Jordan, and Albania. None of these countries had significant pro-IHM inequality. The factors explaining housing inequalities in U5D include household wealth status, residence location, source of drinking water, media access, paternal employment, birth interval, and toilet type.

Conclusions

There are variations in individual- and neighbourhood-level factors driving housing materials inequalities as it influences U5D in LMIC. Interventions focusing on reducing the burden of U5D in households built with UHM are urgently needed.

Prevalence and outcomes of twin pregnancies in Botswana: a national birth outcomes surveillance study

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to evaluate the prevalence and outcome of twin pregnancies in Botswana.

SETTING

The Tsepamo Study conducted birth outcomes surveillance at 8 government-run hospitals (~45% of all births in Botswana) from August 2014 to June 2018 and expanded to 18 hospitals (~70% of all births in Botswana) from July 2018 to March 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected for all live-born and stillborn in-hospital deliveries with a gestational age (GA) greater than 24 weeks. This analysis included 117 593 singleton and 3718 twin infants (1859 sets (1.6%)) born to 119 477 women between August 2014 and March 2019 and excluded 73 higher order multiples (23 sets of triplets and 1 set of quadruplets).

OUTCOMES MEASURED

Our primary outcomes were preterm delivery (<37 weeks GA), very preterm delivery (<32 weeks GA) and stillbirth (APGAR (Appearance, Pulse, Grimace, Activity, Respiration) score of 0, 0, 0).

RESULTS

Women with twin pregnancies had a similar median number of antenatal care visits (9 vs 10), but were more likely to deliver in a tertiary centre (54.8% vs 45.1%, p<0.001) and more likely to have a cesarean-section (54.6% vs 22.0%, p<0.001) than women with singletons. Compared with singletons, twin pregnancies had a higher risk of preterm delivery (<37 weeks GA) (47.6% vs 16.7%, adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 2.8, 95% CI 2.7 to 2.9) and very preterm delivery (<32 weeks) (11.8% vs 4.0%, aRR 3.0 95% CI 2.6 to 3.4). Among all twin pregnancies, 128 (6.9%) had at least one stillborn infant compared with 2845 (2.4%) stillbirths among singletons (aRR 2.8, 95% CI 2.3 to 3.3).

CONCLUSION

Adverse birth outcomes are common among twins in Botswana, and are often severe. Interventions that allow for earlier identification of twin gestation and improved antenatal management of twin pregnancies may improve infant and child survival.

Association of maternal history of neonatal death with subsequent neonatal death across 56 low- and middle-income countries

Early identification of high-risk pregnancies can reduce global neonatal mortality rate. Using the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 56 low- and middle-income countries, we examined the proportion of mothers with history of neonatal deaths. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between maternal history of neonatal death and subsequent neonatal mortality. The adjusted models controlled for socioeconomic, child, and pregnancy-related factors. Country-specific analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity in this association across countries. Among the 437,049 live births included in the study, 6910 resulted in neonatal deaths. In general, 22.4% (1549) occurred to mothers with previous history of neonatal death; at the country-level, this proportion ranged from 1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0, 2.6) in Dominican Republic to 38.1% (95% CI 26.0, 50.1) in Niger. Maternal history of neonatal death was significantly associated with subsequent neonatal death in both the pooled and the subgroup analyses. In the fully adjusted model, history of neonatal death was associated with 2.1 (95% CI 1.9, 2.4) times higher odds of subsequent neonatal mortality in the pooled analysis. We observed large variation in the associations across countries ranging from fully adjusted odds ratio (FAOR) of 0.4 (95% CI 0.0, 4.0) in Dominican Republic to 16.1 (95% CI 3.6, 42.0) in South Africa. Our study suggests that maternal history of neonatal death could be an effective early identifier of high-risk pregnancies in resource-poor countries. However, country-specific contexts must be considered in national policy discussions.

Changes in Multiple Birth Rates and Parental Demographic Factors in South Korea During the Last Four Decades: 1981-2019

Over the previous decades, twinning rates worldwide have increased remarkably. This study aimed to describe changes in multiple birth rates and related demographic characteristics, such as maternal age and the level of education of parents in South Korea from 1981 to 2019. This study analyzed birth data obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service. From 1981 to 2019, the total twinning rate increased from 5 to 22.5 pairs per 1000 births. This rapid increase was due to an increase in dizygotic twin births, which mainly occurred in mothers aged between 30 and 39 years. The average maternal age of multiples increased from 26.06 years in 1981 to 33.98 years in 2019, suggesting that a delay in childbearing contributed to the increase in the twinning rate. The percentage of mothers of multiples who completed a college or higher degree (CHD) increased by 1000% from 1981 to 2019, indicating that a sharp increase in the level of education of females in part explains the delay in childbearing. The percentages of individuals who completed a CHD were higher among parents of multiples than among those of singletons in recent years when public funding arrangements for fertility treatments were available. This result suggested that completion of higher education may be associated with increased use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) independent of the financial status of couples. Taken together, the analysis suggested that increased maternal age, ART and the increased number of females who completed CHD may be responsible for the remarkable increase in the rates of multiple births in South Korea in the last four decades.

Mediation role of low birth weight on the factors associated with newborn mortality and the moderation role of institutional delivery in the association of low birth weight with newborn mortality in a resource-poor setting

OBJECTIVES

To assess low birth weight's (LBW) mediation role on the factors associated with newborn mortality (NM), including stillbirth and the role of institutional delivery in the association between LBW and NM.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

I used the 2011-2015 event histories health demographic data collected by Iganga-Mayuge Health Demographic and Surveillance Site (HDSS). The dataset consisted of 10 758 registered women whose birth occurred at least 22 weeks of the gestation period and records of newborns' living status 28 days after delivery.

SETTING

The Iganga-Mayuge HDSS is in Eastern Uganda, which routinely collects health and demographic data from a registered population of at least 100 000 people.

OUTCOME MEASURE

The study's key outcomes or endogenous factors were perinatal mortality (PM), late NM and LBW (mediating factor).

RESULTS

The factors that were directly associated with PM were LBW (OR=2.55, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.67)), maternal age of 30+ years (OR=1.68, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.33), rural residence (OR=1.38, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.85), mothers with previous experience of NM (OR=3.95, 95% CI 2.86 to 5.46) and mothers with no education level (OR=1.63, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.18). Multiple births and mother's prior experience of NM were positively associated with NM at a later age. Institutional delivery had a modest inverse role in the association of LBW with PM. LBW mediated the association of PM with residence status, mothers' previous NM experience, multiple births, adolescent mothers and mothers' marital status. Of the total effect attributable to each of these factors, LBW mediated +25%, +22%, +100%, 25% and -38% of rural resident mothers, mothers with previous experience of newborn or pregnancy loss, multiple births, adolescent mothers and mothers with partners, respectively.

CONCLUSION

LBW mediated multiple factors in the NM pathways, and the effect of institutional delivery in reducing mortality among LBW newborns was insignificant. The findings demonstrate the need for a holistic life course approach that gears the health systems to tackle NM.

Twin Peaks: more twinning in humans than ever before

STUDY QUESTION

How many twins are born in human populations and how has this changed over recent decades?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Since the 1980s, the global twinning rate has increased by a third, from 9.1 to 12.0 twin deliveries per 1000 deliveries, to about 1.6 million twin pairs each year.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

It was already known that in the 1980s natural twinning rates were low in (East) Asia and South America, at an intermediate level in Europe and North America, and high in many African countries. It was also known that in recent decades, twinning rates have been increasing in the wealthier parts of our world as a result of the rise in medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and delayed childbearing.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We have brought together all information on national twinning rates available from statistical offices, demographic research institutes, individual survey data and the medical literature for the 1980-1985 and the 2010-2015 periods.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

For 165 countries, covering over 99% of the global population, we were able to collect or estimate twinning rates for the 2010-2015 period. For 112 countries, we were also able to obtain twinning rates for 1980-1985.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Substantial increases in twinning rates were observed in many countries in Europe, North America and Asia. For 74 out of 112 countries the increase was more than 10%. Africa is still the continent with highest twinning rates, but Europe, North America and Oceania are catching up rapidly. Asia and Africa are currently home to 80% of all twin deliveries in the world.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

For some countries, data were derived from reports and papers based on hospital registrations which are less representative for the country as a whole than data based on public administrations and national surveys.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The absolute and relative number of twins for the world as a whole is peaking at an unprecedented level. An important reason for this is the tremendous increase in medically assisted reproduction in recent decades. This is highly relevant, as twin deliveries are associated with higher infant and child mortality rates and increased complications for mother and child during pregnancy and during and after delivery.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The contribution of CM was partially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant No 681546, FAMSIZEMATTERS), Nuffield College, and the Leverhulme Trust. The contribution of GP was partially supported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant No ANR-18-CE36-0007-07). The authors declare no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Maternal and Perinatal Factors Associated With Twin Pregnancies in Ecuador

There are few studies on twins in Ecuador and Latin America. It requires a better understanding of perinatal conditions, especially from an ethnic perspective. This work aims to assess perinatal factors related to twin pregnancy in Ecuadorian Mestizo individuals. We performed an epidemiological, observational and cross-sectional study at the Hospital San Francisco and Hospital Nueva Aurora in Quito, Ecuador, from November 2019 to January 2020. It included 203 newborns from twin pregnancies, including mothers with and without pathological history. The average gestational age was 31 weeks, and the APGAR score at first minute was 6.86, with significant differences. Regarding the metabolic balance, the mean pH was 6.14; and bicarbonate was 11.57, with significant differences. Twins had intrauterine growth restriction in 6.9% of cases, with significant differences (p = .003); 81.4% required supplemental oxygen, with significant differences (p = .002); 93% required noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV), with significant differences (p = . 003); 93% required inotropic and sedation, with substantial differences; 69% required antibiotics (≥21 days), with significant differences (p = .014); and 17.2% needed between 8 to 14 days of hospitalization, and 51% more than 28 days, with significant differences. The studied mothers' demographic profile was mostly Mestizos, with an average age of 32 years, and 93% had a poverty status. Most of the twins were diamniotic monochorial and were discordant twins. It found jaundice, premature anemia and sepsis in 100% of twins and hyaline membrane disease in 89.66% of twins. Twins of women with relevant prenatal care had more premature births (30.4 ± 2.6 weeks), more acid-base imbalance, APGAR at ≥7 min in 90% of cases, and patent ductus arteriosus in all. There was also a greater need for double intensive phototherapy than twins of healthy women.

Geospatial analysis of determinants of neonatal mortality in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Ghana did not meet the Millennium Development Goal 4 of reducing child mortality by two-thirds and may not meet SDG (2030). There is a need to direct scarce resources to mitigate the impact of the most important risk factors influencing high neonatal deaths. This study applied both spatial and non-spatial regression models to explore the differential impact of environmental, maternal, and child associated risk factors on neonatal deaths in Ghana.

METHODS

The study relied on data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) and the Ghana Maternal Health Survey (GMHS) conducted between 1998 and 2017 among 49,908 women of reproductive age and 31,367 children under five (GDHS-1998 = 3298, GDHS-2003 = 3844, GDHS-2008 = 2992, GDHS-2014 = 5884, GMHS-2017 = 15,349). Spatial Autoregressive Models that account for spatial autocorrelation in the data at the cluster-level and non-spatial statistical models with appropriate sampling weight adjustment were used to study factors associated with neonatal deaths, and a p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Population density, multiple births, smaller household sizes, high parity, and low birth weight significantly increased the risk of neonatal deaths over the years. Among mothers who had multiple births, the risk of having neonatal deaths was approximately four times as high as the risk of neonatal deaths among mothers who had only single birth [aRR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.63-7.17, p < 0.05]. Neonates who were perceived by their mothers to be small were at a higher risk of neonatal death compared to very large neonates [aRR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.19-3.63, p < 0.05]. A unit increase in the number of children born to a woman of reproductive age was associated with a 49% increased risk in neonatal deaths [aRR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.30-1.69, p < 0.05].

CONCLUSION

Neonatal mortality in Ghana remains relatively high, and the factors that predisposed children to neonatal death were birth size that were perceived to be small, low birth weight, higher parity, and multiple births. Improving pregnant women's nutritional patterns and providing special support to women who have multiple deliveries will reduce neonatal mortality in Ghana.

Neonatal mortality and leading causes of deaths: a descriptive study in China, 2014-2018

OBJECTIVE

The present study estimated the national and urban-rural levels and causes of neonatal deaths in China annually between 2014 and 2018 to provide data support for the further end of preventable neonatal deaths for China and other low-income and middle-income countries.

METHODS

The study was based on data from the National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System. All neonates of surveillance districts (gestational week: ≥28 weeks) who died after delivery have been involved in the study. The mortality rate and the leading causes of death for neonates were analysed.

RESULTS

The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of China has steadily decreased from 5.9 deaths per 1000 live births in 2014 to 3.9 deaths per 1000 live births in 2018. The NMR in 2018 of urban and rural areas was 2.2 deaths per 1000 live births and 4.7 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. The leading preventable causes of neonatal deaths are the same in the urban and rural areas were same, which were preterm birth, intrapartum complications and pneumonia. Mortality rates of these three causes fell significantly between 2014 and 2018 but contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in rural areas than urban areas. The proportion of preventable deaths accounted for 74.6% in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

The NMR of China has decreased steadily from 2014 to 2018. However, the inequality between urban and rural areas still exists. The goal of government interventions should be to reduce the health inequality of neonates and further take targeted measures to eliminate preventable neonatal death.

When children have children: The effects of child marriages and teenage pregnancies on early childhood mortality in Bangladesh

This paper examines the adverse effects of adolescent childbearing on early childhood mortality in Bangladesh in mother-fixed-effects regressions using individual mortality outcomes of 300,000 children. Children born to young mothers (child brides in Bangladesh) suffer from higher mortality in the first year of life than their siblings born later. The survival chances of children born to mothers aged 15-49 years are 48-81 % higher in infant period as compared to their siblings born in mother's early adolescence (10-14 years). In poor households, these survival effects extend up to the fifth birthday, especially in the poorest households or among uneducated mothers. This evidence points towards a biological channel, probably low birth weight, as the main contributing factor in the first year of life. In the post-infant period, favorable socio-economic factors (wealth, education) seem to compensate the biological disadvantage of adolescent births. Adolescent pregnancies lead annually to estimated 18,700 under-5 deaths in Bangladesh.

Gender Discrimination and Excess Female Under-5 Mortality in India: A New Perspective Using Mixed-Sex Twins

Son preference has been linked to excess female under-5 mortality in India, and considerable literature has explored whether parents invest more resources in sons relative to daughters—which we refer to as explicit discrimination—leading to girls’ poorer health status and, consequently, higher mortality. However, this literature has not adequately controlled for the implicit discrimination processes that sort girls into different types of families (e.g., larger) and at earlier parities. To better address the endogeneity associated with implicit discrimination processes, we explore the association between child sex and postneonatal under-5 mortality using a sample of mixed-sex twins from four waves of the Indian National Family Health Survey. Mixed-sex twins provide a natural experiment that exogenously assigns a boy and a girl to families at the same time, thus controlling for selectivity into having an unwanted female child. We document a sizable impact of explicit discrimination on girls’ excess mortality in India, particularly compared with a placebo analysis in sub-Saharan Africa, where girls have a survival advantage. We also show that explicit discrimination weakened for birth cohorts after the mid-1990s, especially in northern India, but further weakening has stalled since the mid-2000s, thus contributing to understandings of how the micro-processes underlying the female mortality disadvantage have changed over time.

Geostatistical analysis and mapping: social and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality, evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted.

METHODS

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival.

RESULTS

Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608-12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128-1.0527]). Child's age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870-0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614-0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298-0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M.

CONCLUSION

The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact.

Under-Five Mortality and Associated Risk Factors in Rural Settings of Ethiopia: Evidences from 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

Background. Evidence shows that in Ethiopia, a gradual decrease of under-five mortality is observed, but it is still high in the rural settings of the country. We are motivated to investigate the socioeconomic, demographic, maternal and paternal, and child-related associated risk factors of under-five mortality given birth from rural resident mothers. Methods. Demographic and Health Survey data from Ethiopia (2016) were used for analysis. The chi-square test of association and logistic regression were used to determine the associated risk factors of under-five children mortality. Study Settings. Rural Ethiopia. Results. Secondary school and above completed fathers (AOR = 0.77; 95% CI: 0.63–0.94) and primary school completed mothers (AOR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72–0.93); multiple twin child (AOR = 4.50; 95% CI: 3.38–5.98); public sector delivery (AOR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.55–0.76); had working of mother (AOR = 1.28; 95% CI: 1.16–1.42) and of father (AOR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.25–1.69); mothers aged above 16 at first birth (AOR = 0.41; 95% CI: 0.37–0.45); breastfeeding (AOR = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.55–0.66); birth order of 2-3 (AOR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.02–1.37); religious belief of Muslim (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.02–1.41); users of contraceptive method (AOR = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.71–0.90); vaccinated child (AOR = 0.52; 95% CI: 0.46–0.60); family size of 4–6 (AOR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.86) and of seven and above (AOR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.36–0.52); mother’s age group: aged 20–29 (AOR = 3.88; 95% CI: 3.08–4.90), aged 30–39 (AOR = 16.29; 95% CI: 12.66–20.96), and aged 40 and above (AOR = 55.97; 95% CI: 42.27–74.13); number of antenatal visits: 1–3 visits (AOR = 0.50; 95% CI: 0.43–0.58), and four and above visits (AOR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.39–0.54); and preceding birth interval of 25–36 months (AOR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.48–0.62) and above 36 months (AOR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.26–0.34) are significant determinant factors of under-five mortality in rural settings. Conclusions. Differences in regions, educated parents, born in singleton, public sector delivery, nonavailability of occupation of parents, mothers older than 16 at first birth, breastfeeding, use of a contraceptive method, child vaccination, higher number of family size, repeated antenatal visits, and preceding birth interval play a significant role regarding the survival of under-five children. These, among other differences, should be addressed decisively as part of any upcoming strategic interventions to improve the survival of children in line with the target of 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Maternal folic acid supplementation and more prominent birth weight gain in twin birth compared with singleton birth: a cross-sectional study in northwest China

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of folic acid (FA) supplementation with birth weight, the risk of small for gestational age (SGA) and low birth weight (LBW) in singleton and twin pregnancy.

DESIGN

A population-based cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

Twenty counties and ten districts in Shaanxi Province of northwestern China, 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

28 174 pregnant women with their infants, covering 27 818 single live births and 356 twin live births.

RESULTS

The prevalence of FA supplementation in singletons and twins was 63·9 and 66·3 %. The mean birth weight was 3267 (sd 459·1) g, 2525 (sd 534·0) g and 2494 (sd 539·5) g; the prevalence of SGA was 14·3, 51·4 and 53·4 %; the prevalence of LBW was 3·4, 42·4 and 46·6 % among singleton, twin A and twin B, respectively. Compared with non-users, women with FA supplementation were (β 17·3, 95 % CI 6·1, 28·4; β 166·3, 95 % CI 69·1, 263·5) associated with increased birth weight, lower risk of SGA (OR 0·85, 95 % CI 0·80, 0·92; OR 0·45, 95 % CI 0·30, 0·68) and LBW (OR 0·82, 95 % CI 0·71, 0·95; OR 0·50, 95 % CI 0·33, 0·75) in singletons and twins, and more prominent effects in twins. Moreover, there were significant interactions between FA supplementation and plurality on birth weight, SGA and LBW.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggests the association of periconceptional 0·4 mg/d FA supplementation with increased birth weight and reduced risk of SGA and LBW in both singletons and twins, and this association may be more prominent in twins.

Factors Associated With Child Stunting, Wasting, and Underweight in 35 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

IMPORTANCE

Evidence on the relative importance of various factors associated with child anthropometric failures (ie, stunting, underweight, and wasting) and their heterogeneity across countries can inform global and national health agendas.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relative significance of factors associated with child anthropometric failures in 35 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study of 299 353 children who were born singleton and aged 12 to 59 months with nonpregnant mothers and valid anthropometric measures assessed the strengths of associations of 26 factors with child stunting, underweight, and wasting, using Demographic and Health Surveys (2007-2018) from 35 LMICs. Data analysis was conducted from July 2019 to February 2020.

EXPOSURES

A total of 9 direct factors (ie, dietary diversity score; breastfeeding initiation; vitamin A supplements; use of iodized salt; infectious disease in past 2 weeks; oral rehydration therapy for children with diarrhea; care seeking for suspected pneumonia; full vaccination; and indoor pollution) and 17 indirect factors (household wealth; maternal and paternal education; maternal and paternal height and body mass index; maternal autonomy for health care, movement, and money; water source; sanitation facility; stool disposal; antenatal care; skilled birth attendant at delivery; family planning needs; and maternal marriage age) were assessed.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Three anthropometric failure outcomes were constructed based on the 2006 World Health Organization child growth standards: stunting (height-for-age z score less than -2 standard deviations [SDs]), underweight (weight-for-age z score less than -2 SDs), and wasting (weight-for-height z score less than -2 SDs).

RESULTS

Among the 299 353 children aged 12 to 59 months included in the analysis, 38.8% (95% CI, 38.6%-38.9%) had stunting, 27.5% (95% CI, 27.3%-27.6%) had underweight, and 12.9% (95% CI, 12.8%-13.0%) had wasting. In the pooled sample, short maternal height was the strongest factor associated with child stunting (odds ratio [OR], 4.7; 95% CI, 4.5-5.0; P < .001), followed by lack of maternal education (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.8-2.0; P < .001), poorest household wealth (OR, 1.7; 95% CI,1.6-1.8; P < .001), and low maternal body mass index (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.6-1.7; P < .001). Short paternal height was also significantly associated with higher odds of stunting (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.7-2.2; P < .001). Consistent results were found for underweight (eg, short maternal height: OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 3.3-3.7; P < .001; lack of maternal education: OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.7-2.0; P < .001) and wasting (eg, low maternal body mass index: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 2.1-2,4; P < .001; poorest household wealth: OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3; P < .001). Parental nutritional status and household socioeconomic conditions ranked the strongest (1st to 4th) for most countries, with a few exceptions (eg, lack of maternal education ranked 18th-20th in 8 countries for child wasting). Other factors were not associated with anthropometric failures in pooled analysis and had large country-level heterogeneity; for example, unsafe water was not associated with child underweight in the pooled analysis (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-1.00; P < .001), and it ranked from 4th to 20th across countries.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, socioeconomic conditions and parental nutritional status were the strongest factors associated with child anthropometric failures. Poverty reduction, women's education, and nutrition programs for households could be important strategies for reducing child undernutrition; however, country-specific contexts should be considered in national policy discussions.

Comparison of three classes of Marginal Risk Set Model in predicting infant mortality among newborn babies at Kigali University Teaching Hospital, Rwanda, 2016

BACKGROUND

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the highest relatively to the rest of the world. In the past decade, the policy on reducing infant mortality in SSA was reinforced and both infant mortality and parental death decreased critically for some countries of SSA. The analysis of risk to death or attracting chronic disease may be done for helping medical practitioners and decision makers and for better preventing the infant mortality.

METHODS

This study uses popular statistical methods of re-sampling and one selected model of multiple events analysis for measuring the survival outcomes for the infants born in 2016 at Kigali University Teaching Hospital (KUTH) in Rwanda, a country of SSA, amidst maternal and child's socio-economic and clinical covariates. Dataset comprises the newborns with correct information on the covariates of interest. The Bootstrap Marginal Risk Set Model (BMRSM) and Jackknife Marginal Risk Set Model (JMRSM) for the available maternal and child's socio-economic and clinical covariates were conducted and then compared to the outcome with Marginal Risk Set Model (MRSM). That was for measuring stability of the MRSM.

RESULTS

The 2117 newborns had the correct information on all the covariates, 82 babies died along the study time, 69 stillborn babies were observed while 1966 were censored. Both BMRSM JMRSM and MRSM displayed the close results for significant covariates. The BMRSM displayed in some instance, relatively higher standard errors for non-significant covariates and this emphasized their insignificance in MRSM. The models revealed that female babies survive better than male babies. The risk is higher for babies whose parents are under 20 years old parents as compared to other parents' age groups, the risk decreases as the APGAR increases, is lower for underweight babies than babies with normal weight and overweight and is lower for babies with normal circumference of head as compared to those with relatively small head.

CONCLUSION

The results of JMRSM were closer to MRSM than that of BMRSM. Newborns of mothers aged less than 20 years were at relatively higher risk of dying than those who their mothers were aged 20 years and above. Being abnormal in weight and head increased the risk of infant mortality. Avoidance of teenage pregnancy and provision of clinical care including an adequate dietary intake during pregnancy would reduce the IMR in Kigali.

The Guinea-Bissau Twin Registry Update: A Platform for Studying Twin Mortality and Metabolic Disease

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest natural twinning rate in the world. Unfortunately, due to lack of adequate care during pregnancy, labor and postnatally, twin mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa also remains very high. Thus, it has been estimated that one in five twins dies during the childhood years. In spite of this, surprisingly few twin studies have been conducted in the region, making additional epidemiological data much needed. In 2009, we established one of the first twin registries in Sub-Saharan Africa at the Bandim Health Project in Guinea-Bissau. The registry had two main objectives. First, we wanted to describe the twinning rate and mortality patterns among newborn twins, including mortality risk factors and hospitalization patterns. Such studies can help the local clinicians improve twin health by identifying the most vulnerable children. Second, and in light of the rapidly increasing diabetes rates in Africa, we wanted to use the registry to particularly focus on metabolic disorders. Twins are often born with low birth weight, which according to the 'thrifty phenotype hypothesis' could predispose them to metabolic disorders later in life. Yet, no such 'fetal programming' data have previously been available from African twins despite the fact that nutritional patterns and influences from other factors (e.g., infections) could be markedly different here compared to high-income settings. In this article, we summarize the findings and current status of the Guinea-Bissau twin registry.

National policies and care provision in pregnancy and childbirth for twins in Eastern and Southern Africa: A mixed-methods multi-country study

BACKGROUND

High-risk pregnancies, such as twin pregnancies, deserve particular attention as mortality is very high in this group. With a view to inform policy and national guidelines development for the Sustainable Development Goals, we reviewed national training materials, guidelines, and policies underpinning the provision of care in relation to twin pregnancies and assessed care provided to twins in 8 Eastern and Southern African countries: Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We located policies and guidelines by reviewing national repositories and by contacting experts to systematically map country-level maternal and newborn training materials, guidelines, and policies. We extracted recommendations for care for twins spanning ante-, intra-, and postpartum care that typically should be offered during twin pregnancies and childbirth. We compared care provided for mothers of twins to that provided for mothers of singletons during the ante-, intra-, and postpartum period and computed neonatal mortality rates using the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data for each country. There was a paucity of guidance on care specifically for twin or multiple pregnancies: None of the countries provided clear guidance on additional number of antenatal care visits or specific antenatal content, while 7 of the 8 countries recommended twins to be delivered in a comprehensive emergency obstetric and neonatal care facility. These results were mirrored by DHS results of 73,462 live births (of which 1,360 were twin) indicating that twin pregnancies did not receive more frequent or intensified antenatal care. The percentage of twin deliveries in hospitals varied from 25.3% in Mozambique to 63.0% in Kenya, and women with twin deliveries were between 5 and 27 percentage points more likely to deliver in hospitals compared to women with singleton live births; this difference was significant in 5 of the 8 countries (t test p < 0.05). The percentage of twin deliveries by cesarean section varied from 9% in Mozambique to 36% in Rwanda. The newborn mortality rate among twins, adjusted for maternal age and parity, was 4.6 to 7.2 times higher for twins compared to singletons in all 8 countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limited sample size and the limited number of clinically relevant services evaluated, our study provided evidence that mothers of twins receive insufficient care and that mortality in twin newborns is very high in Eastern and Southern Africa. Most countries have insufficient guidelines for the care of twins. While our data do not allow us to make a causal link between insufficient guidelines and insufficient care, they call for an assessment and reconceptualisation of policies to reduce the unacceptably high mortality in twins in Eastern and Southern Africa.

Causes of death and predictors of childhood mortality in Rwanda: a matched case-control study using verbal social autopsy

Background

Rwanda has dramatically reduced child mortality, but the causes and sociodemographic drivers for mortality are poorly understood.

Methods

We conducted a matched case-control study of all children who died before 5 years of age in eastern Rwanda between 1st March 2013 and 28th February 2014 to identify causes and risk factors for death. We identified deaths at the facility level and via a community health worker reporting system. We used verbal social autopsy to interview caregivers of deceased children and controls matched by area and age. We used InterVA4 to determine probable causes of death and cause-specific mortality fractions, and utilized conditional logistic regression to identify clinical, family, and household risk factors for death.

Results

We identified 618 deaths including 174 (28.2%) in neonates and 444 (71.8%) in non-neonates. The most commonly identified causes of death were pneumonia, birth asphyxia, and meningitis among neonates and malaria, acute respiratory infections, and HIV/AIDS-related death among non-neonates. Among neonates, 54 (31.0%) deaths occurred at home and for non-neonates 242 (54.5%) deaths occurred at home. Factors associated with neonatal death included home birth (aOR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.4–2.8), multiple gestation (aOR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3–3.5), both parents deceased (aOR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.5–15.3), mothers non-use of family planning (aOR: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.6–1.0), lack of accompanying person (aOR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1–2.1), and a caregiver who assessed the medical services they received as moderate to poor (aOR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2–1.9). Factors associated with non-neonatal deaths included multiple gestation (aOR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.7–4.8), lack of adequate vaccinations (aOR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2–2.3), household size (aOR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.0–1.4), maternal education levels (aOR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2–3.1), mothers non-use of family planning (aOR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4–1.8), and lack of household electricity (aOR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0–1.8).

Conclusion

In the context of rapidly declining childhood mortality in Rwanda and increased access to health care, we found a large proportion of remaining deaths occur at home, with home deliveries still representing a significant risk factor for neonatal death. The major causes of death at a population level remain largely avoidable communicable diseases. Household characteristics associated with death included well-established socioeconomic and care-seeking risk factors.

Maternal Education, Fertility, and Child Survival in Comoros

Reduction in child mortality is a demographic progress of significant socioeconomic development relevance in Africa. This paper analyzed the effect of maternal education and fertility on child survival in the Islands of Comoros. The 2012 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data were used. A two-stage probit regression method was used for data analysis. The results showed that about 75% of the children’s mothers had given birth to between one and five children, while more than half did not have any form of formal education. The results of the two-stage probit regression showed that while child survival reduced significantly (p < 0.05) with the age of the heads of households, residence in the Ngazidja region, being born as twins, mother’s number of business trips, and number of marital unions, it increased with maternal education, fertility, male household headship, and the child being breastfed immediately after birth. It was concluded that efforts to enhance maternal education would reduce child mortality. It is also critical to promote child breastfeeding among women, while regional characteristics promoting differences in child mortality in Comoros Islands should be properly addressed with keen focus on the Ngazidja region.

Assisted reproductive technologies in Africa: first results from the African Network and Registry for Assisted Reproductive Technology, 2013

RESEARCH QUESTION

What were utilization, outcomes and practices in assisted reproductive technology (ART) in Africa in 2013?

DESIGN

To initiate a data registry in Africa, retrospective summary data were collected in a cross-sectional survey.

RESULTS

Forty ART centres from 13 countries collectively reported 25,770 initiated cycles. Regional ART utilization could not be established due to large inter-country variations and insufficient data. The pregnancy rate per aspiration for fresh non-donor IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection was 28.0% and 35.8%, with a preponderance of women under 35 years (57.3%). Deliveries were reported for only 56.1% of pregnancies; the remainder were lost to follow-up. A mean of 2.41 embryos were transferred. The multiple delivery rate was 26.7% (25.5% twins and 1.2% triplets). Most twins (52.7%) and triplets (73.7%) were born pre-term. Oocyte donation represented 7% of all fresh and frozen transfers.

CONCLUSION

This marks the beginning of an ART registry in Africa, Since ART utilization could not be established, the degree of access to ART remains speculative. Pregnancy rates were favourable but underpinned by a preponderance of young women and the transfer of multiple embryos. Efforts are needed to explore treatment barriers, improve pregnancy follow-up and reduce the high rate of multiples. This inaugural report from the African Network and Registry for Assisted Reproductive Technology (ANARA) indicates a willingness and ability of ART centres to voluntarily report and monitor utilization and outcomes of ART, which reflects a rising standard of ART in Africa. It is anticipated that more centres and countries will join ANARA to continue this trend.