Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain

Pathogenicity and virulence of African swine fever virus

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease with a high impact on the pork industry worldwide. ASF virus (ASFV) is a very complex pathogen, the sole member of the family Asfaviridae, which induces a state of immune suppression in the host through infection of myeloid cells and apoptosis of lymphocytes. Moreover, haemorrhages are the other main pathogenic effect of ASFV infection in pigs, related to the infection of endothelial cells, as well as the activation and structural changes of this cell population by proinflammatory cytokine upregulation within bystander monocytes and macrophages. There are still many gaps in the knowledge of the role of proteins produced by the ASFV, which is related to the difficulty in producing a safe and effective vaccine to combat the disease, although few candidates have been approved for use in Southeast Asia in the past couple of years.

Evaluation of Selective Culling as a Containment Strategy for African Swine Fever at a Vietnamese Sow Farm

Selective culling, also known as the "tooth extraction approach", is a strategy for controlling African swine fever (ASF) by removing only sick and suspect animals instead of the entire herd in Vietnam. This method prioritizes preserving healthy animals, particularly valuable breeding pigs. Despite its implementation in various forms, no standardized protocol based on scientific principles has been established. Farms typically adapt this strategy based on their understanding, which can vary significantly. In implementing of selective culling that is not based on scientific principles, there is a significant risk of spreading the disease. The aim of this study is to evaluate the consequences of selective culling as currently implemented in Vietnam. Our analysis on a large sow farm revealed that current practices rely heavily on clinical observations without laboratory confirmations. This approach allows ASF-infected animals to remain on the farm longer, potentially exacerbating the spread of the virus. Thus, selective culling poses a substantial risk by potentially exacerbating the spread of disease. Our findings emphasize that early diagnosis of ASF and systematic removal of infected pigs are critical components for the effective implementation of selective culling strategies and that a high level of fragmentation to minimize contact between animals plays a key role. The optimal approach is to test conspicuous animals and separate them. Under no circumstances should suspect animals be left in the herd for several days before they become severely ill and succumb to the disease.

The Reproduction Number of Swine Viral Respiratory Diseases: A Systematic Review

Diseases in the swine industry can cause significant economic and health impacts. This review examines R0 estimates for respiratory diseases in pigs, assessing variations and comparing transmission risks within and between farms. A literature search of three databases aggregated peer-reviewed research articles on swine viral respiratory diseases' R0 values. The study focused on seven diseases: Aujeszky's disease (AD), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV), Circovirus, Influenza A (IA), Encephalomyocarditis Virus (EV), Classical Swine Fever (CSF), and African Swine Fever (ASF). R0 values were estimated for transmission within and between herds/farms using various methods, from complex mathematical models to simple calculations. Data primarily came from disease surveillance and laboratory experiments. The median R0 for within-herd and between-herd transmission was 10 and 3.31 for AD, 2.78 and 1.14 for PRRSV, 5.9 and 0.89 for Circovirus, 1.75 and 1.6 for CSF, and 3.94 and 3.15 for ASF. For IA and EV, only within-herd R0 values were estimated at 8.65 and 1.3, respectively. Diseases with high R0 values highlight the need for prompt detection and response to outbreaks. Continuous monitoring and evaluation of pathogen transmissibility are crucial for enhancing disease surveillance and reducing the impact of livestock diseases.

Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R

African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.

The Effectiveness of Protection and Surveillance Zones in Detecting Further African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Domestic Pigs-Experience of the Baltic States

In the event of an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in pig farms, the European Union (EU) legislation requires the establishment of a restricted zone, consisting of a protection zone with a radius of at least 3 km and a surveillance zone with a radius of at least 10 km around the outbreak. The main purpose of the restricted zone is to stop the spread of the disease by detecting further outbreaks. We evaluated the effectiveness and necessity of the restricted zone in the Baltic States by looking at how many secondary outbreaks were detected inside and outside the protection and surveillance zones and by what means. Secondary outbreaks are outbreaks with an epidemiological link to a primary outbreak while a primary outbreak is an outbreak that is not epidemiologically linked to any previous outbreak. From 2014 to 2023, a total of 272 outbreaks in domestic pigs were confirmed, where 263 (96.7%) were primary outbreaks and 9 (3.3%) were secondary outbreaks. Eight of the secondary outbreaks were detected by epidemiological enquiry and one by passive surveillance. Epidemiological enquiries are legally required investigations on an outbreak farm to find out when and how the virus entered the farm and to obtain information on contact farms where the ASF virus may have been spread. Of the eight secondary outbreaks detected by epidemiological investigations, six were within the protection zone, one was within the surveillance zone and one outside the restricted zone. Epidemiological investigations were therefore the most effective means of detecting secondary outbreaks, whether inside or outside the restricted zones, while active surveillance was not effective. Active surveillance are legally prescribed activities carried out by the competent authorities in the restricted zones. Furthermore, as ASF is no longer a rare and exotic disease in the EU, it could be listed as a "Category B" disease, which in turn would allow for more flexibility and "tailor-made" control measures, e.g., regarding the size of the restricted zone.

Estimating the impact of low temperature on African swine fever virus transmission through contaminated environments

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is the cause of an infectious disease in pigs, which is difficult to control. Long viability of ASFV has been shown for several contaminated materials, especially under low temperature. Therefore, when pigs are exposed to a contaminated environment, new infections could occur without the presence of infectious individuals. For example, a contaminated, poorly washed, empty livestock vehicle poses a risk to the next load of pigs. A quantitative stochastic environmental transmission model was applied to simulate the change in environmental contamination levels over time and calculate the epidemic parameters through exposure-based estimation. Due to the lack of experimental data on environmental transmission at low temperatures, we performed a non-linear fit of the decay rate parameter with temperature based on a literature review. Eventually, 16 scenarios were constructed for different temperature (at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, or -10 °C) and duration of empty periods (1, 3, 5, or 7 days) after the environment had been contaminated. We quantified the variation in the contamination level of the environment over time and the probability of newly added recipients getting infected when exposed to the environment after the empty period. As a result, the transmission rate parameter for ASFV in pigs was estimated to be 1.53 (0.90, 2.45) day-1, the decay rate parameter to be 1.02 (0.73, 1.47) day-1 (at 21 °C), and the excretion rate parameter to be 2.70 (2.51, 3.02) day-1. Without washing and disinfecting, the environment required 9, 14, 24, 54 days to reach a low probability of causing at least one new case (<0.005) at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, -10 °C, respectively. In addition, the method proposed in this paper enables assessment of the effect of washing and disinfecting on ASFV environmental transmission. We conducted this study to better understand how the viability of ASFV at different temperatures could affect the infectivity in environmental transmission and to improve risk assessment and disease control strategies.

Epidemiological impacts of attenuated African swine fever virus circulating in wild boar populations

African swine fever virus (ASFV) genotype II has been present in wild boar in the European Union since 2014. Control measures have reduced the incidence of the ASF, but highly virulent as well as attenuated ASFV strains continue to circulate. We present the intraherd epidemiological parameters of low and highly virulent ASFV in wild boar from experimental data, and for the first time, evaluate the impact of attenuated strain circulation through unique deterministic compartmental model simulations under various potential scenarios and hypotheses. Using an estimated PCR infectious threshold of TPCR = 36.4, we obtained several transmission parameters, like an Rx (experimental intraherd R0) value of 4.5. We also introduce two novel epidemiological parameters: infectious power and resistance power, which indicate the ability of animals to transmit the infection and the reduction in infectiousness after successive exposures to varying virulence strains, respectively. The presence of ASFV attenuated strains results in 4-17% of animals either remaining in a carrier state or becoming susceptible again when exposed to highly virulent ASFV for more than two years. The timing between exposures to viruses of different virulence also influences the percentage of animals that die or remain susceptible. The findings of this study can be utilized in epidemiological modelling and provide insight into important risk situations that should be considered for surveillance and future potential ASF vaccination strategies in wild boar.

Pathobiological analysis of african swine fever virus contact-exposed pigs and estimation of the basic reproduction number of the virus in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

African swine fever (ASF), caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), is a fatal disease affecting wild and domestic pigs. Since China reported the first ASF outbreak in August 2018, ASFV has swept over the neighbouring Asian countries. However, studies involving experimental pig-to-pig ASFV transmission in Vietnam are lacking. The main objective of this experimental study was to demonstrate the pathobiological characteristics of ASFV contact-exposed pigs and estimate their basic reproduction number (R₀) in Vietnam. Fifteen pigs were randomly divided into two groups: experimental (n = 10) and negative control (n = 5) groups. One pig in the experimental group was intramuscularly inoculated with ASFV strain from Vietnam in 2020 and housed with the uninoculated pigs during the study period (28 days).

RESULTS

The inoculated pig died 6 days post-inoculation, and the final survival rate was 90.0%. We started observing viremia and excretion of ASFV 10 days post-exposure in contact-exposed pigs. Unlike the surviving and negative control pigs, all necropsied pigs showed severe congestive splenomegaly and moderate-to-severe haemorrhagic lesions in the lymph nodes. The surviving pig presented with mild haemorrhagic lesions in the spleen and kidneys. We used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed models for estimating R₀. The R₀ values for exponential growth (EG) and maximum likelihood (ML) were calculated to be 2.916 and 4.015, respectively. In addition, the transmission rates (β) were estimated to be 0.729 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.379-1.765) for EG and 1.004 (95% CI: 0.283-2.450) for ML.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed pathobiological and epidemiological information in about pig-to-pig ASFV transmission. Our findings suggested that culling infected herds within a brief period of time may mitigate the spread of ASF outbreaks.

Prediction of the spread of African swine fever through pig and carcass movements in Thailand using a network analysis and diffusion model

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is a serious contagious viral disease of pigs that affects the pig industry. This study aimed to evaluate the possible African swine fever (ASF) distribution using network analysis and a diffusion model through live pig, carcass, and pig product movement data.

Material and Methods

Empirical movement data from Thailand for the year 2019 were used, and expert opinions were sought to evaluate network properties and the diffusion model. The networks were presented as live pig movement and carcass movement data at the provincial and district levels. For network analysis, a descriptive network analysis was performed using outdegree, indegree, betweenness, fragmentation, and power law distribution, and cutpoints were used to describe movement patterns. For the diffusion model, we simulated each network using spatially different infected locations, patterns, and initial infection sites. Based on expert opinions, the initial infection site, the probability of ASF occurrence, and the probability of the initial infected adopter were selected for the appropriated network. In this study, we also simulated networks under varying network parameters to predict the infection speed.

Results and Conclusions

The total number of movements recorded was 2,594,364. These were divided into 403,408 (403,408/2,594,364; 15.55%) for live pigs and 2,190,956 (2,190,956/2,594,364; 84.45%) for carcasses. We found that carcass movement at the provincial level showed the highest outdegree (mean = 342.554, standard deviation (SD) = 900.528) and indegree values (mean = 342.554, SD = 665.509). In addition, the outdegree and indegree presented similar mean values and the degree distributions of both district networks followed a power-law function. The network of live pigs at provincial level showed the highest value for betweenness (mean = 0.011, SD = 0.017), and the network of live pigs at provincial level showed the highest value for fragmentation (mean = 0.027, SD = 0.005). Our simulation data indicated that the disease occurred randomly due to live pig and carcass movements along the central and western regions of Thailand, causing the rapid spread of ASF. Without control measures, it could spread to all provinces within 5- and 3-time units and in all districts within 21- and 30-time units for the network of live pigs and carcasses, respectively. This study assists the authorities to plan control and preventive measures and limit economic losses caused by ASF.

Estimation of the herd-level basic reproduction number for African swine fever in Vietnam, 2019

Background and Aim

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral disease of pigs and wild boars that causes severe economic losses to the swine industry. The pig industry in Vietnam was recently attacked by the ASF virus (ASFV) for the first time in history. However, we lack information regarding the transmissibility of ASF within indoor production systems communities, such as those in Vietnam. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number (R₀) for ASF during the early stages of transmission between farms in indoor production system communities from local and national data in Vietnam.

Materials and Methods

The linear regression model approach for the susceptible infectious method was used in this study to estimate the transmission rate and, consequently, the R₀ value.

Results

The R₀ values between-farm of ASF ranged from 1.41 to 10.8 in different scenarios of infectious period duration, from 15 to 30 days at the national and local levels.

Conclusion

These results help to understand the scale and speed of ASF infection in Vietnam and to provide a scientific basis to implement control measures to restrict the spread of ASFV in other locations.

Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit. The modelling was done in discrete time as testing was conducted on specific days. The main contribution of this study is the estimation of ASFV genotype II transmission through the air in a confined space. The estimated transmission parameters via air are not much lower than for direct contact between pigs. The estimated parameters should be useful for future simulations of control measures against ASFV.

Estimation of basic reproduction number (R0) of African swine fever (ASF) in mid-size commercial pig farms in Vietnam

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease affecting the global swine industry. Recently, it has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean, leaving severe damage to local, regional, national, and global economies. Due to its highly complex molecular characteristics and pathogenesis, the development of a successful vaccine has been an unmet challenge. Therefore, ASF control relies solely on biosecurity, rapid detection, and elimination. Epidemiological information obtained from natural ASF outbreaks is critical for designing and implementing ASF control measures. Basic reproduction number (R₀), an epidemiological metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents, is an important epidemiological tool. In this study, we have calculated R₀ for the in-farm spread of ASF among fattening pigs and sows in two midsize commercial pig farms, HY1 and HY2, that practice the spot removal approach in controlling ASF outbreaks in Vietnam. The R₀ values for the sows and fattening pigs were 1.78 (1.35–2.35) and 4.76 (4.18–5.38) for HY1 and 1.55 (1.08–2.18) and 3.8 (3.33–4.28) for HY2. This is the first study to evaluate the transmission potential of ASF in midsize commercial pig farms in Vietnam. Based on the R₀ values, we predict that the spot removal approach could be used to successfully control ASF outbreaks in midsize commercial sow barns but not in fattening pens.

Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies

African swine fever (ASF), caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is highly virulent in domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa), causing up to 100% mortality. The recent epidemic of ASF in Europe has had a serious economic impact and poses a threat to global food security. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment or vaccine against ASFV, limiting the available disease management strategies. Mathematical models allow us to further our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and evaluate the efficacy of disease management strategies. The ASF Challenge, organised by the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, aimed to expand the development of ASF transmission models to inform policy makers in a timely manner. Here, we present the model and associated projections produced by our team during the challenge. We developed a stochastic model combining transmission between wild boar and domestic pigs, which was calibrated to synthetic data corresponding to different phases describing the epidemic progression. The model was then used to produce forward projections describing the likely temporal evolution of the epidemic under various disease management scenarios. Despite the interventions implemented, long-term projections forecasted persistence of ASFV in wild boar, and hence repeated outbreaks in domestic pigs. A key finding was that it is important to consider the timescale over which different measures are evaluated: interventions that have only limited effectiveness in the short term may yield substantial long-term benefits. Our model has several limitations, partly because it was developed in real-time. Nonetheless, it can inform understanding of the likely development of ASF epidemics and the efficacy of disease management strategies, should the virus continue its spread in Europe.

Effects of habitat fragmentation and hunting activities on African swine fever dynamics among wild boar populations

African Swine Fever (ASF) has been slowly but steadily increasing its endemic range throughout Europe, posing an imminent risk to the pig industry. ASF transmission among wild boar occurs mainly through wild boar population movements, hence wild boar presence and density are important risk factors for introducing, maintaining, and spreading the disease. The understanding of wild boar population dynamics and their role in ASF transmission and persistence remains limited. It is crucial to gain knowledge in this area to improve wildlife management while minimizing the risks for ASF introduction and spread. We adapted an individual-based spatio-temporal stochastic model developed by Halasa et al. (2019) and tailored it to two regions in France. The model assessed yearly hunting activity, the carcass persistence seasonality, and the specific landscape characteristics of the Franco-Belgian border region and the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department. Following the establishment of local population dynamics through preliminary runs of the model, the model was run 100 iterations over 8 years in the two study areas where ASF was randomly seeded after the 2nd year of simulation. For each scenario, the model was initiated with 500 wild boar groups randomly spread across the study areas. Hunting activities were included and excluded to assess the impact on population growth and ASF spread. Results showed an ever-growing wild boar population for all scenarios, which was balanced when hunting activities were included. When introducing ASF, the wild boar populations were dramatically impacted in both areas with a decrease of 63 % of the population at the Franco-Belgian border and 86 % in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department. Habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity were highlighted as important factors shaping ASF propagation. The Franco-Belgian border, which had the most fragmented habitat with unsuitable areas for wild boars, was shown to limit wild boar movements, reducing the probability, and spread of ASF across the landscape. The lack of connectivity was reflected in a less effective transmission and lower number of infected groups (406 versus 467). In contrast, the epidemic duration was lengthened in the fragmented habitat compared to the homogenous area (2.6 years vs 1.6 years). This study provided information on defining and implementing control measures in case of an ASF incursion, since delimitation of the area via fences artificially induces landscape fragmentation, which is important for controlling ASF outbreaks.

Targeted sampling reduces the uncertainty in force of infection estimates from serological surveillance

Age bins are frequently used in serological studies of infectious diseases in wildlife to deal with uncertainty in the age of sampled animals. This study analyzed how age binning and targeted sampling in serological surveillance affect the width of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the estimated force of infection (FOI) of infectious diseases. We indicate that the optimal target population with the narrowest 95% CI differs depending on the expected FOI using computer simulations and mathematical models. In addition, our findings show that we can substantially reduce the number of animals required to infer transmission risk by tailoring targeted, age-based sampling to specific epidemiological situations.

Analysis of surveillance and prevention plan for African Swine Fever in Italy in 2020

Background

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a challenge for pig health worldwide. The disease has spread to multiple countries on five continents. ASF‐free countries need to apply effective strategies to prevent the introduction of infection.

Methods

Italy implemented a surveillance and prevention plan for ASF in 2020, supported by a dedicated information system. Several pillars for action have been identified: passive surveillance in both domestic pigs and wild boar populations, verification of the implementation of biosecurity measures on farms and an awareness campaign for all involved stakeholders.

Results

There were some regional differences in the management of passive surveillance. In order to identify all critical points and apply corrective measures, regional authorities were called to carry out a gap analysis exercise in July 2020. There were an adequate number of samples collected from wild boar but the number of samples collected from domestic pigs was below the target in most regions. Furthermore, sample distribution within the country was not homogeneous.

Conclusions

During the forthcoming year, some issues must be addressed in order to establish an effective early detection system in Italian ASF‐free regions.

Dynamic Models of Within-Herd Transmission and Recommendation for Vaccination Coverage Requirement in the Case of African Swine Fever in Vietnam

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that is caused by the ASF virus (ASFV) with a high fatality rate in domestic pigs resulting in a high socio-economic impact. The pig business in Vietnam was recently affected by ASF for the first time. This study thus aimed to develop a disease dynamic model to explain how ASFV spreads in Vietnamese pig populations and suggest a protective vaccine coverage level required to prevent future outbreaks. The outbreak data were collected from ten private small-scale farms within the first wave of ASF outbreaks in Vietnam. Three methods were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R₀), including the exponential growth method, maximum likelihood method, and attack rate method. The average R₀ values were estimated at 1.49 (95%CI: 1.05–2.21), 1.58 (95%CI: 0.92–2.56), and 1.46 (95%CI: 1.38–1.57), respectively. Based on the worst-case scenario, all pigs in a herd would be infected and removed within 50 days. We suggest vaccinating at least 80% of pigs on each farm once a commercially approved ASF vaccine is available. However, an improvement in biosecurity levels in small-scale farms is still greatly encouraged to prevent the introduction of the virus.

Application of Spatial Risk Assessment Integrated With a Mobile App in Fighting Against the Introduction of African Swine Fever in Pig Farms in Thailand: Development Study

BACKGROUND

African swine fever (ASF), a highly contagious disease affecting both domestic and wild pigs, has been having a serious impact on the swine industry worldwide. This important transboundary animal disease can be spread by animals and ticks via direct transmission and by contaminated feed and fomites via indirect transmission because of the high environmental resistance of the ASF virus. Thus, the prevention of the introduction of ASF to areas free of ASF is essential. After an outbreak was reported in China, intensive import policies and biosecurity measures were implemented to prevent the introduction of ASF to pig farms in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE

Enhancing prevention and control, this study aims to identify the potential areas for ASF introduction and transmission in Thailand, develop a tool for farm assessment of ASF risk introduction focusing on smallholders, and develop a spatial analysis tool that is easily used by local officers for disease prevention and control planning.

METHODS

We applied a multi-criteria decision analysis approach with spatial and farm assessment and integrated the outputs with the necessary spatial layers to develop a spatial analysis on a web-based platform.

RESULTS

The map that referred to potential areas for ASF introduction and transmission was derived from 6 spatial risk factors; namely, the distance to the port, which had the highest relative importance, followed by the distance to the border, the number of pig farms using swill feeding, the density of small pig farms (<50 heads), the number of pigs moving in the area, and the distance to the slaughterhouse. The possible transmission areas were divided into 5 levels (very low, low, medium, high, and very high) at the subdistrict level, with 27 subdistricts in 10 provinces having very high suitability and 560 subdistricts in 34 provinces having high suitability. At the farm level, 17 biosecurity practices considered as useful and practical for smallholders were selected and developed on a mobile app platform. The outputs from the previous steps integrated with necessary geographic information system layers were added to a spatial analysis web-based platform.

CONCLUSIONS

The tools developed in this study have been complemented with other strategies to fight against the introduction of ASF to pig farms in the country. The areas showing high and very high risk for disease introduction and transmission were applied for spatial information planning, for example, intensive surveillance, strict animal movement, and public awareness. In addition, farms with low biosecurity were improved in these areas, and the risk assessment developed on a mobile app in this study helped enhance this matter. The spatial analysis on a web-based platform helped facilitate disease prevention planning for the authorities.

Modelling African swine fever virus spread in pigs using time-respective network data: Scientific support for decision-makers

African Swine Fever (ASF) represents the main threat to swine production, with heavy economic consequences for both farmers and the food industry. The spread of the virus that causes ASF through Europe raises the issues of identifying transmission routes and assessing their relative contributions in order to provide insights to stakeholders for adapted surveillance and control measures. A simulation model was developed to assess ASF spread over the commercial swine network in France. The model was designed from raw movement data and actual farm characteristics. A metapopulation approach was used, with transmission processes at the herd level potentially leading to external spread to epidemiologically connected herds. Three transmission routes were considered: local transmission (e.g. fomites, material exchange), movement of animals from infected to susceptible sites, and transit of trucks without physical animal exchange. Surveillance was represented by prevalence and mortality detection thresholds at herd level, which triggered control measures through movement ban for detected herds and epidemiologically related herds. The time from infection to detection varied between 8 and 21 days, depending on the detection criteria, but was also dependent on the types of herds in which the infection was introduced. Movement restrictions effectively reduced the transmission between herds, but local transmission was nevertheless observed in higher proportions highlighting the need of global awareness of all actors of the swine industry to mitigate the risk of local spread. Raw movement data were directly used to build a dynamic network on a realistic time-scale. This approach allows for a rapid update of input data without any pre-treatment, which could be important in terms of responsiveness, should an introduction occur. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Exact Bayesian inference of epidemiological parameters from mortality data: application to African swine fever virus

Pathogens such as African swine fever virus (ASFV) are an increasing threat to global livestock production with implications for economic well-being and food security. Quantification of epidemiological parameters, such as transmission rates and latent and infectious periods, is critical to inform efficient disease control. Parameter estimation for livestock disease systems is often reliant upon transmission experiments, which provide valuable insights in the epidemiology of disease but which may also be unrepresentative of at-risk populations and incur economic and animal welfare costs. Routinely collected mortality data are a potential source of readily available and representative information regarding disease transmission early in outbreaks. We develop methodology to conduct exact Bayesian parameter inference from mortality data using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo incorporating multiple routes of transmission (e.g. within-farm secondary and background transmission from external sources). We use this methodology to infer epidemiological parameters for ASFV using data from outbreaks on nine farms in the Russian Federation. This approach improves inference on transmission rates in comparison with previous methods based on approximate Bayesian computation, allows better estimation of time of introduction and could readily be applied to other outbreaks or pathogens.

Multiple variants of African swine fever virus circulating in Vietnam

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious and deadly viral disease affecting swine of all ages. ASF was first reported in Vietnam in February 2019, and it is now considered endemic in Vietnam. In this study, 122 ASF-positive samples collected from domestic pigs in 28 different provinces of northern, central, and southern Vietnam during outbreaks in 2019-2021 were genetically characterized. The findings confirmed that all ASF virus (ASFV) strains circulating in Vietnam belonged to p72 genotype II, p54 genotype II, CD2v serogroup 8, and CVR gene variant type I. However, further analysis based on the tandem repeat sequences located between I73R and I329L genes revealed that there were three different variants of ASFV, IGR I, II, and III, circulating in the domestic pig population in Vietnam. The IGR II variants were the most prevalent (117/122 strains) and were detected in pigs in all of the provinces tested, followed by IGR III (4/122 strains) and IGR I (1/122 strains). This study confirms for the first time the presence of IGR III variants in Vietnam.

Charles KM, Boyer TC, Goldsmith T, Cardona CJ, Corzo CA, Culhane MR. African swine fever detection and transmission estimates using homogeneous versus heterogeneous model formulation in stochastic simulations within pig premises

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important foreign animal diseases to the U.S. swine industry. Stakeholders in the swine production sector are on high alert as they witness the devastation of ongoing outbreaks in some of its most important trade partner countries. Efforts to improve preparedness for ASF outbreak management are proceeding in earnest and mathematical modeling is an integral part of these efforts.

Aim

This study aimed to assess the impact on within-herd transmission dynamics of ASF when the models used to simulate transmission assume there is homogeneous mixing of animals within a barn.

Methods

Barn-level heterogeneity was explicitly captured using a stochastic, individual pig-based, heterogeneous transmission model that considers three types of infection transmission, (1) within-pen via nose-to-nose contact; (2) between-pen via nose-to-nose contact with pigs in adjacent pens; and (3) both between- and within-pen via distance-independent mechanisms (e.g., via fomites). Predictions were compared between the heterogeneous and the homogeneous Gillespie models.

Results

Results showed that the predicted mean number of infectious pigs at specific time points differed greatly between the homogeneous and heterogeneous models for scenarios with low levels of between-pen contacts via distance-independent pathways and the differences between the two model predictions were more pronounced for the slow contact rate scenario. The heterogeneous transmission model results also showed that it may take significantly longer to detect ASF, particularly in large barns when transmission predominantly occurs via nose-to-nose contact between pigs in adjacent pens.

Conclusion

The findings emphasize the need for completing preliminary explorations when working with homogeneous mixing models to ascertain their suitability to predict disease outcomes.

Spatial-Temporal Movements of Free Ranging Pigs at the Wildlife-Livestock Interface of Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda: Potential of Disease Control at a Local Scale

In many Ugandan rural communities, pigs are generally kept under traditional smallholder systems without basic biosecurity measures in place. In some instances, these systems are at the livestock-wildlife interface, as it is the case in Nwoya district, which is bordered by Murchison Falls National Park (MFNP). This pig system has potential for the maintenance and transmission of pathogens like African swine fever (ASF) between different herds, and also with wild pigs (warthogs and bushpigs). In this paper, we describe the spatial and temporal pattern of the movements of free ranging domestic pigs in a rural setting in Northern Uganda where ASF is endemic. We also determine their use of habitat to highlight the potential interaction hotspots between domestic pigs and between domestic and wild pig populations. We fitted 10 free-ranging domestic pigs owned by different homesteads with GPS harnesses during rainy and dry seasons. The pig home range, daily distance, activity pattern and habitat use were calculated. Our results show that the maximum area covered (MCP 100%) by the pigs varied between 35,965 and 475,077 m2. The core area varied from 1,317 to 50,769 m2. The pigs' home ranges were significantly bigger during the dry season than during the rainy season (Wilcoxon test, W = 22, p = 0.04). The mean full day (24 h) distance was longer in the dry season than in the rainy season (Student test, t = 2.7, p = 0.03). The pigs were mostly located within their own homestead, but they also used other homesteads, grass and crop fields. This study highlights that free-ranging domestic pigs may cover a wide area, especially during the dry season. Interestingly, the home range of pigs from different herds may overlap with areas used by wild pigs which share crops and other resources in this area. This study provides insights into a better understanding of the potential for spread of diseases such as ASF at small-scale and can be used to raise awareness of such risks and to better target implementation of preventive measures.

Towards a Framework for High-Performance Simulation of Livestock Disease Outbreak: A Case Study of Spread of African Swine Fever in Vietnam

Simple Summary

Disease transmission simulation programs in veterinary epidemiology in general and in simulation of African swine fever in particular are often very diverse and require great computing power. However, such programs often share similar workflows from processing input/output data, performing simulations, or storing data. Our paper proposes a common architectural framework for livestock disease transmission simulation programs in order to both improve simulation performance and reduce the effort of developing new simulation programs. Our framework was evaluated with a simulation program of African swine fever transmission currently raging in Vietnam and some other countries around the world. The results from the evaluation experiments not only demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework in terms of performance but also have practical consulting value for decision makers in Vietnam and for international colleagues.

Abstract

The spread of disease in livestock is an important research topic of veterinary epidemiology because it provides warnings or advice to organizations responsible for the protection of animal health in particular and public health in general. Disease transmission simulation programs are often deployed with different species, disease types, or epidemiological models, and each research team manages its own set of parameters relevant to their target diseases and concerns, resulting in limited cooperation and reuse of research results. Furthermore, these simulation and decision support tools often require a large amount of computational power, especially for models involving tens of thousands of herds with millions of individuals spread over a large geographical area such as a region or a country. It is a matter of fact that epidemic simulation programs are often heterogeneous, but they often share some common workflows including processing of input data and execution of simulation, as well as storage, analysis, and visualization of results. In this article, we propose a novel architectural framework for simultaneously deploying any epidemic simulation program both on premises and on the cloud to improve performance and scalability. We also conduct some experiments to evaluate the proposed architectural framework on some aspects when applying it to simulate the spread of African swine fever in Vietnam.

Dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) infection in domestic pigs infected with virulent, moderate virulent and attenuated genotype II ASFV European isolates

This study aimed to compare the infection dynamics of three genotype II African swine fever viruses (ASFV) circulating in Europe. Eighteen domestic pigs divided into three groups were infected intramuscularly or by direct contact with two haemadsorbent ASFVs (HAD) from Poland (Pol16/DP/ OUT21) and Estonia (Est16/WB/Viru8), and with the Latvian non-HAD ASFV (Lv17/WB/Rie1). Parameters, such as symptoms, pathogenicity, and distribution of the virus in tissues, humoral immune response, and dissemination of the virus by blood, oropharyngeal and rectal routes, were investigated. The Polish ASFV caused a case of rapidly developing fatal acute disease, while the Estonian ASFV caused acute to sub-acute infections and two animals survived. In contrast, animals infected with the ASFV from Latvia developed a more subtle, mild, or even subclinical disease. Oral excretion was sporadic or even absent in the attenuated group, whereas in animals that developed an acute or sub-acute form of ASF, oral excretion began at the same time the ASFV was detected in the blood, or even 3 days earlier, and persisted up to 22 days. Regardless of virulence, blood was the main route of transmission of ASFV and infectious virus was isolated from persistently infected animals for at least 19 days in the attenuated group and up to 44 days in the group of moderate virulence. Rectal excretion was limited to the acute phase of infection. In terms of diagnostics, the ASFV genome was detected in contact pigs from oropharyngeal samples earlier than in blood, independently of virulence. Together with blood, both samples could allow to detect ASFV infection for a longer period. The results presented here provide quantitative data on the spread and excretion of ASFV strains of different virulence among domestic pigs that can help to better focus surveillance activities and, thus, increase the ability to detect ASF introductions earlier.

Evaluation of oral fluid as an aggregate sample for early detection of African swine fever virus using four independent pen-based experimental studies

The sustained spread of African swine fever (ASF) virus throughout much of the world has made ASF a global animal health priority, with an increased emphasis on enhancing preparedness to prevent, detect and respond to a potential outbreak of ASF virus (ASFV). In the event of ASFV entry to the North American swine population, enhanced surveillance and diagnostic testing strategies will be critical to facilitate progressive response and eradication of the disease. Compared to individual animal sampling, pen-based oral fluid collection for active surveillance is a non-invasive alternative that is less resource and time-intensive. To evaluate the feasibility of using rope-based oral fluid for early detection of ASFV, four independent animal experiments were conducted in weaned pigs housed in numbers that mimic the industry settings, utilising either highly virulent ASFV Georgia 2007/1 strain or moderately virulent ASFV Malta'78 strain. Pen-based oral fluid and individual oropharyngeal swabs were collected daily and blood samples from each animal were collected every other day. All samples were subsequently tested for ASFV by real-time PCR. ASFV genome was detected in individual blood samples as early as one day post-infection and detected in oral fluids at low-to-moderate levels as early as 3-5 days post-infection in all four independent experiments. These results suggest that pen-based oral fluid samples may be used to supplement the use of traditional samples for rapid detection of ASFV during ASF surveillance.

Modeling the outbreak and control of African swine fever virus in large-scale pig farms

African swine fever virus (ASFV) leads to a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating disease among pigs. Since no effective treatment for the disease, it is crucial to investigate its transmission mechanism and control strategies in large-scale pig farms. We first established a toy model to explore ASFV spread in one pig unit. Then a switching patch model was developed to capture its spread from one initial epidemic pig house consecutively to others, even the whole farm. Assessing innocent culling rates of three large-scale epidemic pig farms in Jiangsu Province showed that it is unnecessary to slaughter all pigs in the farms compulsively. Then we explored how the disinfection and fixation of employees impact ASFV spread in the farms. To control ASFV, we can block or slow down its spreading by improving the efficiency of disinfection and decreasing employee population to some extend. We can also shrink potential areas to be infected by properly improving the matching refinement degree among employees and houses. Some essential requirements for large-scale pig farms are presented to reduce their ASFV spreading risk, which can be helpful for animal health authorities in establishing regulation to standardize large-scale pig farms.

A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam

The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD) region were obtained from the General Statistics Office, and then, random points corresponding to the number of farms in each province were generated as exact farm locations were not available. A total of 10 models were developed, including movement control scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of indirect contact transmission probability (TP). Overall, the indirect contact exhibited an important role in transmitting the ASF virus. In order to minimize ASF transmission between farms, we found that movement restriction needed to reach a certain level (approximately between 50% and 75%) and that the restriction had to be applied in a timely manner. This study offers valuable insight into how ASF virus can be transmitted via direct and indirect contact and controlled among farms under the various simulation scenarios. Our results suggest that the enforcement of movement restriction was an effective control measure as soon as the outbreaks were reported. In addition, this study provided evidence that high standards of biosecurity can contribute to the reduction of disease spread.

Mechanistic modelling of African swine fever: A systematic review

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) poses a grave threat to the global swine industry. Without an available vaccine, understanding transmission dynamics is essential for designing effective prevention, surveillance, and intervention strategies. These dynamics can often be unraveled through mechanistic modelling. To examine the assumptions on transmission and objectives of the mechanistic models of ASF, a systematic review of the scientific literature was conducted. Articles were examined across multiple epidemiological and model characteristics, with filiation between models determined through the creation of a neighbor-joined tree using phylogenetic software. Thirty-four articles qualified for inclusion, with four main modelling objectives identified: estimating transmission parameters (11 studies), assessing determinants of transmission (7), examining consequences of hypothetical outbreaks (5), assessing alternative control strategies (11). Population-based (17), metapopulation (5), and individual-based (12) model frameworks were represented, with population-based and metapopulation models predominantly used among domestic pigs, and individual-based models predominantly represented among wild boar. The majority of models (25) were parameterized to the genotype II isolates currently circulating in Europe and Asia. Estimated transmission parameters varied widely among ASFV strains, locations, and transmission scale. Similarly, parameter assumptions between models varied extensively. Uncertainties on epidemiological and ecological parameters were usually accounted for to assess the impact of parameter values on the modelled infection trajectory. To date, almost all models are host specific, being developed for either domestic pigs or wild boar despite the fact that spillover events between domestic pigs and wild boar are evidenced to play an important role in ASF outbreaks. Consequently, the development of more models incorporating such transmission routes is crucial. A variety of codified and hypothetical control strategies were compared however they were all a priori defined interventions. Future models, built to identify the optimal contributions across many control methods for achieving specific outcomes should provide more useful information for policy-makers. Further, control strategies were examined in competition with each other, which is opposed to how they would actually be synergistically implemented. While comparing strategies is beneficial for identifying a rank-order efficacy of control methods, this structure does not necessarily determine the most effective combination of all available strategies. In order for ASFV models to effectively support decision-making in controlling ASFV globally, these modelling limitations need to be addressed.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

Intake Vaccinations Reduced Signs of Canine Respiratory Disease During an Outbreak at an Animal Shelter

Animal shelters provide an ideal environment for the spread of disease. Dogs are often housed in close quarters with others of unknown vaccine histories, and experience high levels of sustained stress. As a result, Canine Infection Respiratory Disease (CIRD) is often prevalent and difficult to control. The aims of this study were to (1) identify specific pathogens responsible for CIRD in a city shelter in West Texas, USA, and (2) determine whether intake vaccinations decrease proportion of dogs exhibiting signs of CIRD even during an outbreak. A laboratory analysis of conjunctival, pharyngeal, and nasal swabs (n = 15 dogs) and fecal samples (n = 6 kennels) showed prevalence of various CIRD pathogens (e.g., canine adenovirus-2, canine parainfluenza virus, canine distemper virus). All fifteen dogs tested positive for at least one pathogen, with the most prevalent pathogen being Canine Distemper Virus (CDV; n = 12). All of the kennels (n=6) tested positive for Canine Distemper Virus. Health data on dogs (n = 1,258) over the age of 6 weeks were assessed from May to August 2017. Beginning in July, both stray and owner-surrendered dogs were vaccinated with Nobivac^® Canine 1-DAPPv 5 Way and Nobivac^® Intra-Trac^® 3 upon intake, which differed from the previous policy. For each day in the study, we calculated the proportion of dogs in each nasal discharge category, the proportion of dogs observed coughing, and the mean fecal score across all dogs. We conducted a linear regression between the proportion of the shelter vaccinated and the proportion of dogs coughing. At the beginning of the vaccination phase, ~25% of the dogs were coughing. However, as the proportion of the dogs vaccinated increased, the proportion of dogs coughing decreased. There was a significant decrease of 7% of the proportion of dogs coughing when vaccination was at least at 90% compared to when it was <90%. These data suggest that the shelter in this study was experiencing a CIRD outbreak, with CDV being primary pathogen, and that it is possible to substantially reduce illness by implementing a vaccination on intake protocol. The current study provides support for the importance of vaccination in animal shelter welfare.

Spatiotemporal clustering and Random Forest models to identify risk factors of African swine fever outbreak in Romania in 2018-2019

African swine fever (ASF) has affected Romania since July 2017, with considerable economic and social consequences, despite the implementation of control measures mainly based on stamping out of infected pig populations. On the basis of the 2973 cumulative recorded cases up to September 2019 among wild boars and domestic pigs, analysis of the epidemiological characteristics could help to identify the factors favoring the persistence and spread of ASF. A statistical framework, based on a random forest methodology, was therefore developed to assess the spatiotemporal features of the epidemics and their relationships with environmental, human, and agricultural factors. The landscape of Romania was associated with the infection dynamics, particularly concerning forested and wetland areas. Waterways were also identified as a pivotal factor, raising questions about possible waterborne transmission since these waterways are often used as a water supply for backyard holdings. However, human activity was clearly identified as the main risk factor for the spread of ASF. Although the situation in Romania cannot be directly transposed to intensive pig farming countries, the findings of this study highlight the need for strict biosecurity measures on farms, and during transportation, to avoid ASF transmission at large geographic and temporal scales.

A Review of Risk Factors of African Swine Fever Incursion in Pig Farming within the European Union Scenario

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral disease of pigs and wild boars that could lead to serious economic losses for the entire European pork industry. As no effective treatment or vaccination is available, disease prevention and control rely on strictly enforced biosecurity measures tailored to the specific risk factors of ASF introduction within domestic pig populations. Here, we present a review addressing the risk factors associated with different European pig farming systems in the context of the actual epidemiological scenario. A list of keywords was combined into a Boolean query, “African swine fever” AND (“Risk factors” OR “Transmission” OR “Spread” OR “Pig farming” OR “Pigs” OR “Wild boars”); was run on 4 databases; and resulted in 52 documents of interest being reviewed. Based on our review, each farming system has its own peculiar risk factors: commercial farms, where best practices are already in place, may suffer from unintentional breaches in biosecurity, while backyard and outdoor farms may suffer from poor ASF awareness, sociocultural factors, and contact with wild boars. In the literature selected for our review, human-related activities and behaviours are presented as the main risks, but we also stress the need to implement biosecurity measures also tailored to risks factors that are specific for the different pig farming practices in the European Union (EU).

Mechanical transmission of African swine fever virus by Stomoxys calcitrans: Insights from a mechanistic model

African swine fever (ASF) represents a global threat with huge economic consequences for the swine industry. Even though direct contact is likely to be the main transmission route from infected to susceptible hosts, recent epidemiological investigations have raised questions regarding the role of haematophagous arthropods, in particular the stable fly (Stomoxys calcitrans). In this study, we developed a mechanistic vector-borne transmission model for ASF virus (ASFV) within an outdoor domestic pig farm in order to assess the relative contribution of stable flies to the spread of the virus. The model was fitted to the ecology of the vector, its blood-feeding behaviour and pig-to-pig transmission dynamic. Model outputs suggested that in a context of low abundance (<5 flies per pig), stable flies would play a minor role in the spread of ASFV, as they are expected to be responsible for around 10% of transmission events. However, with abundances of 20 and 50 stable flies per pig, the vector-borne transmission would likely be responsible for almost 30% and 50% of transmission events, respectively. In these situations, time to reach a pig mortality of 10% would be reduced by around 26% and 40%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis emphasized that the expected relative contribution of stable flies was strongly dependent on the volume of blood they regurgitated and the infectious dose for pigs. This study identified crucial knowledge gaps that need to be filled in order to assess more precisely the potential contribution of stable flies to the spread of ASFV, including a quantitative description of the populations of haematophagous arthropods that could be found in pig farms, a better understanding of blood-feeding behaviours of stable flies and the quantification of the probability that stable flies partially fed with infectious blood transmit the virus to a susceptible pig during a subsequent blood-feeding attempt.

Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar

African swine fever (ASF) severely threatens the swine industry worldwide, given its spread and the absence of an available licensed vaccine, and has caused severe economic losses. Its persistence in wild boar (WB), longer than in domestic pig farms, and the knowledge gaps in ASF epidemiology hinder ASF virus (ASFV) eradication. Even in areas where disease is effectively controlled and ASFV is no longer detected, declaring eradication is difficult as seropositive WBs may still be detected. The aim of this work was to estimate the main ASF epidemiological parameters specific for the north of Sardinia, Italy. The estimated basic (R₀) and effective (R_e) reproduction numbers demonstrate that the ASF epidemic is declining and under control with an R₀ of 1.139 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.123-1.153) and R_e of 0.802 (95% CI = 0.612-0.992). In the last phases of an epidemic, these estimates are crucial tools for identifying the intensity of interventions required to definitively eradicate the disease. This approach is useful to understand if and when the detection of residual seropositive WB is no longer associated with any further ASFV circulation.

Clinical symptoms of African swine fever in domestic pig farms in the Republic of Korea, 2019

This study describes the clinical characteristics of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in 14 domestic pig farms in the Republic of Korea. ASF outbreak was identified by farmers' notifications in 11 farms and by active surveillance in the remaining three. At the time of notification, farmers reported sudden death, abortion and anorexia in sows. Death was the primary symptom identified by farmers in fattener pigs. The number of animals exhibiting clinical symptoms did not exceed four heads at notification, and the number of asymptomatic virus positives was four heads per farm on average. As ASF virus was detected only in the same pig house (in a pen for fattener pigs) in each of 14 ASF outbreak farms, there has been no evidence of house-to-house viral spread within any of the ASF outbreak farms. This in turn supports our hypothesis that infection was successfully detected during its initial phase.

Modelling infectious viral diseases in swine populations: a state of the art

Mathematical modelling is nowadays a pivotal tool for infectious diseases studies, completing regular biological investigations. The rapid growth of computer technology allowed for development of computational tools to address biological issues that could not be unravelled in the past. The global understanding of viral disease dynamics requires to account for all interactions at all levels, from within-host to between-herd, to have all the keys for development of control measures. A literature review was performed to disentangle modelling frameworks according to their major objectives and methodologies. One hundred and seventeen articles published between 1994 and 2020 were found to meet our inclusion criteria, which were defined to target papers representative of studies dealing with models of viral infection dynamics in pigs. A first descriptive analysis, using bibliometric indexes, permitted to identify keywords strongly related to the study scopes. Modelling studies were focused on particular infectious agents, with a shared objective: to better understand the viral dynamics for appropriate control measure adaptation. In a second step, selected papers were analysed to disentangle the modelling structures according to the objectives of the studies. The system representation was highly dependent on the nature of the pathogens. Enzootic viruses, such as swine influenza or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, were generally investigated at the herd scale to analyse the impact of husbandry practices and prophylactic measures on infection dynamics. Epizootic agents (classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease or African swine fever viruses) were mostly studied using spatio-temporal simulation tools, to investigate the efficiency of surveillance and control protocols, which are predetermined for regulated diseases. A huge effort was made on model parameterization through the development of specific studies and methodologies insuring the robustness of parameter values to feed simulation tools. Integrative modelling frameworks, from within-host to spatio-temporal models, is clearly on the way. This would allow to capture the complexity of individual biological variabilities and to assess their consequences on the whole system at the population level. This would offer the opportunity to test and evaluate in silico the efficiency of possible control measures targeting specific epidemiological units, from hosts to herds, either individually or through their contact networks. Such decision support tools represent a strength for stakeholders to help mitigating infectious diseases dynamics and limiting economic consequences.

Risk-based early detection system of African Swine Fever using mortality thresholds

African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious disease of swine causing major losses in the swine industry worldwide. Early detection of ASF is challenging because of the wide range of non-specific clinical signs produced and its relatively low contagiousness. Monitoring pig mortality is a promising approach for early detection of ASF, but such approach has been associated with delay in disease detection in large pig farms. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness and suitability of early detection strategies for ASF in large commercial pig farms using mortality monitoring at the pen, room or barn level. The within-barn spread of the disease was modelled including the non-homogeneous probabilities of transmission within pens, between pens and between rooms. The performances of early detection surveillance based on mortality thresholds established for different epidemiological units were compared in terms of sensitivity, time to detection and number of false alarms per year. A barn with a capacity of 3,200 pigs divided into 8 rooms with 10 pens each containing 40 pigs per pen was used as an example. Our results show that using room- or pen-based mortality thresholds provided a time to detection of 8 days post-disease introduction. Similar detection performances could be achieved with barn-level mortality threshold but at the cost of an increased number of pigs to be tested each year. The different scenarios tested also show that barn characteristics such as baseline mortality rate and pen size had a limited impact on the pen-level mortality thresholds required for disease early detection. These results offer strong support for using mortality data for early detection of ASF not only in small pig herds but also in large commercial barns. Furthermore, the mortality thresholds defined in this study might be relevant to a wide range of pig production sites.

Stability analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order model for African swine fever

In this paper, a basic fractional-order model is proposed to describe the transmission of African swine fever. Two cases are considered: constant control and optimal control. In the former case, the existence and uniqueness of positive solution is proved firstly; then the basic reproduction number and the sufficient conditions for the stability of two equilibriums are obtained by using the next generation matrix method and Lyapunov LaSalle's invariance principle. In the latter case, optimal control is considered. By using the Hamiltonian function and Pontryagin's maximum principle, the optimal control formula is obtained. In addition, some examples and numerical simulations (based on Adama-Bashforth-Moulton predictor-corrector method) are performed to verify the theoretical results. At last, we present some brief discussion and conclusion.

African Swine Fever in Two Large Commercial Pig Farms in LATVIA-Estimation of the High Risk Period and Virus Spread within the Farm

African swine fever (ASF) was first detected in Latvia in wild boar at the Eastern border in June 2014. Since then ASF has continued to spread in wild boar populations covering almost whole territory of the country. Sporadic outbreaks occurred at the same time in domestic pig holdings located in wild boar infected areas. Here we present the results of the epidemiological investigation in two large commercial farms. Several parameters were analyzed to determine the high risk period (HRP) and to investigate the ASF virus spread within the farm. Clinical data, mortality rates and laboratory results proved to be good indicators for estimating the HRP. The measures for early disease detection, particularly the enhanced passive surveillance that is targeting dead and sick pigs, were analyzed and discussed. Enhanced passive surveillance proved to be a key element to detect ASF at an early stage. The study also showed that ASF virus might spread slowly within a large farm depending mainly on direct contacts between pigs and the level of internal biosecurity. Findings suggest improvements in outbreak prevention, control measures and may contribute to a better understanding of ASF spreading patterns within large pig herds. Culling of all pigs in large commercial farms could be reconsidered under certain conditions.

Predicting spread and effective control measures for African swine fever-Should we blame the boars?

An ongoing, continually spreading, outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), following its identification in Georgia in 2007, has resulted in 17 European and 12 Asian countries reporting cases by April 2020, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. Curtailing further spread of ASF requires understanding of the transmission pathways of the disease. ASF is self-sustaining in the wild boar population, and they have been implicated as one of the main drivers of transmission within Europe. We developed a spatially explicit model to estimate the risk of infection with ASF in wild boar and pigs due to natural movement of wild boar that is applicable across the whole of Europe. We demonstrate the model by using it to predict the probability that early cases of ASF in Poland were caused by wild boar dispersion. The risk of infection in 2015 is computed due to wild boar cases in Poland in 2014, compared against reported cases in 2015, and then the procedure is repeated for 2015-2016. We find that long- and medium-distance spread of ASF (i.e. >30 km) is unlikely to have occurred due to wild boar dispersal, due in part to the generally short distances wild boar will travel (<20 km on average). We also predict the relative success of different control strategies in 2015, if they were implemented in 2014. Results suggest that hunting of wild boar reduces the number of new cases, but a larger region is at risk of ASF compared with no control measure. Alternatively, introducing wild boar-proof fencing reduces the size of the region at risk in 2015, but not the total number of cases. Overall, our model suggests wild boar movement is only responsible for local transmission of disease; thus, other pathways are more dominant in medium- and long-distance spread of the disease.

Clinical and Pathological Study of the First Outbreak Cases of African Swine Fever in Vietnam, 2019

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease of swine and the most important disease for the pork industry. Since the outbreaks in 2007 in the Caucasian region, it has been spreading to the West and East quite swiftly. In this study we have analyzed the clinical signs and pathological features of the first outbreaks on ASF in Vietnam in 2019, caused by an isolate with 100% similarity to the genotype II (p72) isolates from Georgia in 2007 and China in 2018. The disease onset with a peracute to acute clinical course with high mortality. Some animals showed very unspecific clinical signs with other showing severe hyperthermia, respiratory distress, diarrhea, or vomit. Hemorrhagic splenomegaly and lymphadenitis were the main lesions observed at post mortem examination, with histopathological changes confirming the lymphoid depletion and multiorganic hemorrhages. Monocyte-macrophages were identified by means of immunohistochemical methods as the main target cell for the ASF virus in tissue sections.

African Swine Fever Virus: An Emerging DNA Arbovirus

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the sole member of the family Asfarviridae, and the only known DNA arbovirus. Since its identification in Kenya in 1921, ASFV has remained endemic in Africa, maintained in a sylvatic cycle between Ornithodoros soft ticks and warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus) which do not develop clinical disease with ASFV infection. However, ASFV causes a devastating and economically significant disease of domestic (Sus scrofa domesticus) and feral (Sus scrofa ferus) swine. There is no ASFV vaccine available, and current control measures consist of strict animal quarantine and culling procedures. The virus is highly stable and easily spreads by infected swine, contaminated pork products and fomites, or via transmission by the Ornithodoros vector. Competent Ornithodoros argasid soft tick vectors are known to exist not only in Africa, but also in parts of Europe and the Americas. Once ASFV is established in the argasid soft tick vector, eradication can be difficult due to the long lifespan of Ornithodoros ticks and their proclivity to inhabit the burrows of warthogs or pens and shelters of domestic pigs. Establishment of endemic ASFV infections in wild boar populations further complicates the control of ASF. Between the late 1950s and early 1980s, ASFV emerged in Europe, Russia and South America, but was mostly eradicated by the mid-1990s. In 2007, a highly virulent genotype II ASFV strain emerged in the Caucasus region and subsequently spread into the Russian Federation and Europe, where it has continued to circulate and spread. Most recently, ASFV emerged in China and has now spread to several neighboring countries in Southeast Asia. The high morbidity and mortality associated with ASFV, the lack of an efficacious vaccine, and the complex makeup of the ASFV virion and genome as well as its lifecycle, make this pathogen a serious threat to the global swine industry and national economies. Topics covered by this review include factors important for ASFV infection, replication, maintenance, and transmission, with attention to the role of the argasid tick vector and the sylvatic transmission cycle, current and future control strategies for ASF, and knowledge gaps regarding the virus itself, its vector and host species.

Current status and evolving approaches to African swine fever vaccine development

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal haemorrhagic disease of swine caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), a unique and genetically complex virus. The disease continues to be a huge burden to the pig industry in Africa, Europe and recently in Asia, especially China. The purpose of this review was to recapitulate the current scenarios and evolving trends in ASF vaccine development. The unavailability of an applicable ASF vaccine is partly due to the complex nature of the virus, which encodes various proteins associated with immune evasion. Moreover, the incomplete understanding of immune protection determinants of ASFV hampers the rational vaccine design. Developing an effective ASF vaccine continues to be a challenging task due to many undefined features of ASFV immunobiology. Recent attempts on DNA and live attenuated ASF vaccines have been reported with promising efficacy, and especially live attenuated vaccines have been proved to provide complete homologous protection. Single-cycle viral vaccines have been developed for various diseases such as Rift Valley fever and bluetongue, and the rational extension of these strategies could be helpful for developing single-cycle ASF vaccines. Therefore, live attenuated vaccines in short term and single-cycle vaccines in long term would be the next generation of ASF vaccines.

Replication and virulence in pigs of the first African swine fever virus isolated in China

African swine fever (ASF) entered China in August 2018 and rapidly spread across the entire country, severely threatening the Chinese domestic pig population, which accounts for more than 50% of the pig population worldwide. In this study, an ASFV isolate, Pig/Heilongjiang/2018 (Pig/HLJ/18), was isolated in primary porcine alveolar macrophages (PAMs) from a pig sample from an ASF outbreak farm. The isolate was characterized by using the haemadsorption (HAD) test, Western blotting and immunofluorescence, and electronic microscopy. Phylogenetic analysis of the viral p72 gene revealed that Pig/HLJ/18 belongs to Genotype II. Infectious titres of virus propagated in primary PAMs and pig marrow macrophages were as high as 10^7.2 HAD₅₀/ml. Specific-pathogen-free pigs intramuscularly inoculated with different virus dosages at 10^3.5-10^6.5 HAD₅₀ showed acute disease with fever and haemorrhagic signs. The incubation periods were 3-5 days for virus-inoculated pigs and 9 days for contact pigs. All virus-inoculated pigs died between 6-9 days post-inoculation (p.i.), and the contact pigs died between 13-14 days post-contact (p.c.). Viremia started on day 2 p.i. in inoculated pigs and on day 9 p.c. in contact pigs. Viral genomic DNA started to be detected from oral and rectal swab samples on 2-5 days p.i. in virus-inoculated pigs, and 6-10 days p.c. in contact pigs. These results indicate that Pig/HLJ/18 is highly virulent and transmissible in domestic pigs. Our study demonstrates the threat of ASFV and emphasizes the need to control and eradicate ASF in China.

Threat to the French Swine Industry of African Swine Fever: Surveillance, Spread, and Control Perspectives

African swine fever (ASF) has one of the highest case-fatality rates among pig diseases. Europe was considered ASF-free for about two decades until 2007, when the virus was introduced into Georgia. Since then, it has been identified throughout Eastern Europe, and reached Belgium in late 2018, increasing the risk of ASF being introduced into neighboring countries-namely Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and France. French authorities have therefore reinforced surveillance measures to improve the probability of detecting ASF rapidly if it emerges in France. Predictive modeling may help to anticipate the extent of virus spread and evaluate the efficiency of these surveillance measures. A previously published and well-documented model that simulates ASF virus spread was therefore tailored to realistically represent the French situation in terms of the geographic distribution of swine production sites and the commercial trade between them on the one hand, and the implementation of surveillance protocols on the other. The outcomes confirmed the moderate spread of ASF through the swine trade network, a situation that had been previously highlighted for the case of Denmark. However, the diversity of the French pig production landscape has revealed a huge potential for the geographic dispersal of the virus, especially should the index case occur in a low-density area, with a median source-to-case distance reaching 300 km. Free-range herds, which are more likely to have interactions with wild boars, were also identified as potential entrance gate for the virus. Transmissions from conventional herds were quasi-exclusively due to swine movement on the commercial network, representing 99% of transmission events. In contrast, 81% of transmission events occurred in the neighborhood of the index herd when the virus was introduced in free-range herds. The current surveillance measures were found relatively efficient for detecting the virus in large herds, leading to detection rates of 94%. However, infections on smaller production sites-which often have free-range herds-were more difficult to detect and would require screening protocols specifically targeting these smaller herds.

African swine fever (ASF) diagnosis, an essential tool in the epidemiological investigation

Since there is no vaccine available, prevention, control, and eradication of African swine fever (ASF) is based on the implementation of appropriated surveillance and strict sanitary measures. Success of surveillance activities depends on the availability of the most appropriate diagnostic tests. Although a number of good validated ASF diagnostic techniques are available, the interpretation of the ASF diagnostic results can be complex. The reasons lie in the complexity of the epidemiology with different scenarios, as well as in the characteristics of the viruses circulating giving rise to a wide range of clinical forms of ASF. This review provides guidance for an accurate interpretation of ASF diagnostic results linked to the different clinical presentations ranging from per-acute to chronic disease, including apparently asymptomatic infections.

Transmission of African Swine Fever Virus via carrier (survivor) pigs does occur

We investigated whether ASF carrier pigs that had completely recovered from an acute infection with ASFV Netherlands '86, could transmit the disease to naive pigs by direct contact transmission. For this, we used pigs that had survived an ASFV infection, had recovered from disease, and had become carriers of ASFV. These clinically healthy carriers were put together one-by-one with naive contact pigs. Two of the twelve contact pigs developed an acute ASFV infection. Using the results of the experiment we quantified the transmission parameters β_carrier (0.039/day) and T_carrier (25.4 days). With the survival rate of 0.3 for our ASFV isolate, these parameter values translate into the contribution of carriers to R₀ in groups of pigs being 0.3. Further, we placed naive contact pigs in an ASFV contaminated environment. Here, no contact infections were observed. Our findings show that clinically healthy carriers can be a source of acute new infections, which can contribute to the persistence of ASFV in swine populations. The estimates that we provide can be used for modelling of transmission in domestic pigs and, in part, for modelling transmission in wild boar.