Polygenic susceptibility to prostate and breast cancer: implications for personalised screening

The benefit of adding polygenic risk scores, lifestyle factors, and breast density to family history and genetic status for breast cancer risk and surveillance classification of unaffected women from germline CHEK2 c.1100delC families

To determine the changes in surveillance category by adding a polygenic risk score based on 311 breast cancer (BC)-associated variants (PRS311), questionnaire-based risk factors and breast density on personalized BC risk in unaffected women from Dutch CHEK2 c.1100delC families. In total, 117 unaffected women (58 heterozygotes and 59 non-carriers) from CHEK2 families were included. Blood-derived DNA samples were genotyped with the GSAMDv3-array to determine PRS311. Lifetime BC risk was calculated in CanRisk, which uses data from the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA). Women, were categorized into three surveillance groups. The surveillance advice was reclassified in 37.9 % of heterozygotes and 32.2 % of non-carriers after adding PRS311. Including questionnaire-based risk factors resulted in an additional change in 20.0 % of heterozygotes and 13.2 % of non-carriers; and a subanalysis showed that adding breast density on top shifted another 17.9 % of heterozygotes and 33.3 % of non-carriers. Overall, the majority of heterozygotes were reclassified to a less intensive surveillance, while non-carriers would require intensified surveillance. The addition of PRS311, questionnaire-based risk factors and breast density to family history resulted in a more personalized BC surveillance advice in CHEK2-families, which may lead to more efficient use of surveillance.

A Systematic Review and Critical Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Tools Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score for the General Population

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the form of a polygenic risk score (PRS) have emerged as a promising factor that could improve the predictive performance of breast cancer (BC) risk prediction tools. This study aims to appraise and critically assess the current evidence on these tools. Studies were identified using Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library up to November 2022 and were included if they described the development and/ or validation of a BC risk prediction model using a PRS for women of the general population and if they reported a measure of predictive performance. We identified 37 articles, of which 29 combined genetic and non-genetic risk factors using seven different risk prediction tools. Most models (55.0%) were developed on populations from European ancestry and performed better than those developed on populations from other ancestry groups. Regardless of the number of SNPs in each PRS, models combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors generally had better discriminatory accuracy (AUC from 0.52 to 0.77) than those using a PRS alone (AUC from 0.48 to 0.68). The overall risk of bias was considered low in most studies. BC risk prediction tools combining a PRS with genetic and non-genetic risk factors provided better discriminative accuracy than either used alone. Further studies are needed to cross-compare their clinical utility and readiness for implementation in public health practices.

Breast cancer risk stratification using genetic and non-genetic risk assessment tools for 246,142 women in the UK Biobank

PURPOSE

The benefit of using individual risk prediction tools to identify high-risk individuals for breast cancer (BC) screening is uncertain, despite the personalized approach of risk-based screening.

METHODS

We studied the overlap of predicted high-risk individuals among 246,142 women enrolled in the UK Biobank. Risk predictors assessed include the Gail model (Gail), BC family history (FH, binary), BC polygenic risk score (PRS), and presence of loss-of-function (LoF) variants in BC predisposition genes. Youden J-index was used to select optimal thresholds for defining high-risk.

RESULTS

In total, 147,399 were considered at high risk for developing BC within the next 2 years by at least 1 of the 4 risk prediction tools examined (Gail2-year > 0.5%: 47%, PRS2-yea r > 0.7%: 30%, FH: 6%, and LoF: 1%); 92,851 (38%) were flagged by only 1 risk predictor. The overlap between individuals flagged as high-risk because of genetic (PRS) and Gail model risk factors was 30%. The best-performing combinatorial model comprises a union of high-risk women identified by PRS, FH, and, LoF (AUC2-year [95% CI]: 62.2 [60.8 to 63.6]). Assigning individual weights to each risk prediction tool increased discriminatory ability.

CONCLUSION

Risk-based BC screening may require a multipronged approach that includes PRS, predisposition genes, FH, and other recognized risk factors.

Breast cancer polygenic risk scores derived in White European populations are not calibrated for women of Ashkenazi Jewish descent

PURPOSE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are a major component of accurate breast cancer (BC) risk prediction but require ethnicity-specific calibration. Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population is assumed to be of White European (WE) origin in some commercially available PRSs despite differing effect allele frequencies (EAFs). We conducted a case-control study of WE and AJ women from the Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening Study. The Breast Cancer in Northern Israel Study provided a separate AJ population-based case-control validation series.

METHODS

All women underwent Illumina OncoArray single-nucleotide variation (SNV; formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP]) analysis. Two PRSs were assessed, SNV142 and SNV78. A total of 221 of 2243 WE women (discovery: cases = 111; controls = 110; validation: cases = 651; controls = 1772) and 221 AJ women (cases = 121; controls = 110) were included from the UK study; the Israeli series consisted of 2045 AJ women (cases = 1331; controls = 714). EAFs were obtained from the Genome Aggregation Database.

RESULTS

In the UK study, the mean SNV142 PRS demonstrated good calibration and discrimination in WE population, with mean PRS of 1.33 (95% CI 1.18-1.48) in cases and 1.01 (95% CI 0.89-1.13) in controls. In AJ women from Manchester, the mean PRS of 1.54 (1.38-1.70) in cases and 1.20 (1.08-1.32) in controls demonstrated good discrimination but overestimation of BC relative risk. After adjusting for EAFs for the AJ population, mean risk was corrected (mean SNV142 PRS cases = 1.30 [95% CI 1.16-1.44] and controls = 1.02 [95% CI 0.92-1.12]). This was recapitulated in the larger Israeli data set with good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.632 [95% CI 0.607-0.657] for SNV142).

CONCLUSION

AJ women should not be given BC relative risk predictions based on PRSs calibrated to EAFs from the WE population. PRSs need to be recalibrated using AJ-derived EAFs. A simple recalibration using the mean PRS adjustment ratio likely performs well.

Plasma microRNA ratios associated with breast cancer detection in a nested case-control study from a mammography screening cohort

Mammographic breast cancer screening is effective in reducing breast cancer mortality. Nevertheless, several limitations are known. Therefore, developing an alternative or complementary non-invasive tool capable of increasing the accuracy of the screening process is highly desirable. The objective of this study was to identify circulating microRNA (miRs) ratios associated with BC in women attending mammography screening. A nested case-control study was conducted within the ANDROMEDA cohort (women of age 46-67 attending BC screening). Pre-diagnostic plasma samples, information on life-styles and common BC risk factors were collected. Small-RNA sequencing was carried out on plasma samples from 65 cases and 66 controls. miR ratios associated with BC were selected by two-sample Wilcoxon test and lasso logistic regression. Subsequent assessment by RT-qPCR of the miRs contained in the selected miR ratios was carried out as a platform validation. To identify the most promising biomarkers, penalised logistic regression was further applied to candidate miR ratios alone, or in combination with non-molecular factors. Small-RNA sequencing yielded 20 candidate miR ratios associated with BC, which were further assessed by RT-qPCR. In the resulting model, penalised logistic regression selected seven miR ratios (miR-199a-3p_let-7a-5p, miR-26b-5p_miR-142-5p, let-7b-5p_miR-19b-3p, miR-101-3p_miR-19b-3p, miR-93-5p_miR-19b-3p, let-7a-5p_miR-22-3p and miR-21-5p_miR-23a-3p), together with body mass index (BMI), menopausal status (MS), the interaction term BMI * MS, life-style score and breast density. The ROC AUC of the model was 0.79 with a sensitivity and specificity of 71.9% and 76.6%, respectively. We identified biomarkers potentially useful for BC screening measured through a widespread and low-cost technique. This is the first study reporting circulating miRs for BC detection in a screening setting. Validation in a wider sample is warranted.Trial registration: The Andromeda prospective cohort study protocol was retrospectively registered on 27-11-2015 (NCT02618538).

Polygenic risk scores and breast cancer risk prediction

Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) are a major component of accurate breast cancer risk prediction and have the potential to improve screening and prevention strategies. PRS combine the risk from Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer in Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and explain over 30% of breast cancer heritability. When incorporated into risk models, the more personalised risk assessment derived from PRS, help identify women at higher risk of breast cancer development and enables the implementation of stratified screening and prevention approaches. This review describes the role of PRS in breast cancer risk prediction including the development of PRS and their clinical application. We have also examined the role of PRS within more well-established risk prediction models which incorporate known classic risk factors and discuss the interaction of PRS with these factors and their capacity to predict breast cancer subtypes. Before PRS can be implemented on a population-wide scale, there are several challenges that must be addressed. Perhaps the most pressing of these is the use of PRS in women of non-White European origin, where PRS have been shown to have attenuated risk prediction both in discrimination and calibration. We discuss progress in developing and applying PRS in non-white European populations. PRS represent a significant advance in breast cancer risk prediction and their further development will undoubtedly enhance personalisation.

Use of Breast Cancer Risk Factors to Identify Risk-Adapted Starting Age of Screening in China

IMPORTANCE

Although current guidelines highlight the need for earlier screening in women at increased risk of breast cancer in China, data on risk-adapted starting ages of screening are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening in China, with comprehensive consideration of breast cancer risk factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A multicenter community-based cohort study was conducted under the framework of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China. Data were collected from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018, for unscreened community-dwelling women aged 40 to 74 years without a history of cancer, kidney dysfunction, or severe heart, brain, or lung disease. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2021, to August 16, 2022.

EXPOSURES

Baseline characteristics associated with breast cancer, including first-degree family history of breast cancer, benign breast disease, breastfeeding, age at menarche, and body mass index.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Outcomes included breast cancer diagnosis and age at diagnosis. Risk-adapted starting age of screening was defined as the age at which women with different levels of breast cancer risk attained a 10-year cumulative risk level similar to women aged 50 years in the general population.

RESULTS

Of the 1 549 988 women enrolled in this study, 3895 had breast cancer (median follow-up, 4.47 [IQR, 3.16-6.35] years). Participants were divided into different risk groups according to breast cancer risk scores (driven by risk factors including first-degree family history of breast cancer, benign breast disease, breastfeeding, age at menarche, and body mass index). Using the 10-year cumulative risk of breast cancer at age 50 years in the general population as a benchmark (2.65% [95% CI, 2.50%-2.76%]), the optimal starting age of screening for women with high, medium, or low risk of breast cancer was identified as 43, 48, or after 55 years, respectively. An online calculator was developed to calculate an individual's optimal starting age of screening.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study identifies the risk-adapted starting age of breast cancer screening based on the principle of equal management of equal risks, which may inform updates of current screening guidelines.

How well do polygenic risk scores identify men at high risk for prostate cancer? Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Genome-wide association studies have revealed over 200 genetic susceptibility loci for prostate cancer (PCa). By combining them, polygenic risk scores (PRS) can be generated to predict risk of PCa. We summarize the published evidence and conduct meta-analyses of PRS as a predictor of PCa risk in Caucasian men.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were extracted from 59 studies, with 16 studies including 17 separate analyses used in the main meta-analysis with a total of 20,786 cases and 69,106 controls identified through a systematic search of ten databases. Random effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimates of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Meta-regression was used to assess the impact of number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) incorporated in PRS on AUC. Heterogeneity is expressed as I² scores. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots and Egger tests.

RESULTS

The ability of PRS to identify men with PCa was modest (pooled AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.62-0.64) with moderate consistency (I² 64%). Combining PRS with clinical variables increased the pooled AUC to 0.74 (0.68-0.81). Meta-regression showed only negligible increase in AUC for adding incremental SNPs. Despite moderate heterogeneity, publication bias was not evident.

CONCLUSION

Typically, PRS accuracy is comparable to PSA or family history with a pooled AUC value 0.63 indicating mediocre performance for PRS alone.

Bilateral Analysis Boosts the Performance of Mammography-based Deep Learning Models in Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death among women. Early prediction of breast cancer can significantly improve the survival rates. Breast density was proven as a reliable risk factor. Deep learning models can learn subtle cues in the mammogram images. CNN models were recently shown to improve the risk discrimination in full-field mammograms. This study aims to improve risk prediction models using bilateral analysis. Bilateral analysis is the process of comparing two breasts to verify presence of anomalies. We developed a Siamese neural network to leverage the bilateral information and asymmetries between the two mammograms of the same patient. We tested our model on 271 patients and compared the results of our Siamese model against the traditional unilateral CNN model. Our results showed AUCs of 0.75 and 0.70 respectively (p = 0.0056). The Siamese model also exhibits higher sensitivity, specificity, precision, and false positive rate with values of 0.68, 0.69, 0.71, 0.31 respectively. While the CNN values were 0.61, 0.66, 0.67, 0.34 respectively. We merged both models by two techniques using pre-trained weights and weighted voting ensemble. The merging technique boosted the AUC to 0.78. The results suggest that bilateral analysis can significantly improve the risk discrimination.

Gynecologic Cancer Risk and Genetics: Informing an Ideal Model of Gynecologic Cancer Prevention

Individuals with proven hereditary cancer syndrome (HCS) such as BRCA1 and BRCA2 have elevated rates of ovarian, breast, and other cancers. If these high-risk people can be identified before a cancer is diagnosed, risk-reducing interventions are highly effective and can be lifesaving. Despite this evidence, the vast majority of Canadians with HCS are unaware of their risk. In response to this unmet opportunity for prevention, the British Columbia Gynecologic Cancer Initiative convened a research summit “Gynecologic Cancer Prevention: Thinking Big, Thinking Differently” in Vancouver, Canada on 26 November 2021. The aim of the conference was to explore how hereditary cancer prevention via population-based genetic testing could decrease morbidity and mortality from gynecologic cancer. The summit invited local, national, and international experts to (1) discuss how genetic testing could be more broadly implemented in a Canadian system, (2) identify key research priorities in this topic and (3) outline the core essential elements required for such a program to be successful. This report summarizes the findings from this research summit, describes the current state of hereditary genetic programs in Canada, and outlines incremental steps that can be taken to improve prevention for high-risk Canadians now while developing an organized population-based hereditary cancer strategy.

Polygenic and Network-Based Studies in Risk Identification and Demystification of cancer

INTRODUCTION

Diseases were initially thought to be the consequence of a single gene mutation. Advances in DNA sequencing tools and our understanding of gene behavior have revealed that complex diseases, such as cancer, are the product of genes cooperating with each other and with their environment in orchestrated communication networks. Seeing that the function of individual genes is still used to analyze cancer, the shift to using functionally interacting groups of genes as a new unit of study holds promise for demystifying cancer.

AREAS COVERED

The literature search focused on three types of cancer, namely breast, lung, and prostate, but arguments from other cancers were also included. The aim was to prove that multigene analyses can accurately predict and prognosticate cancer risk, subtype cancer for more personalized and effective treatments, and discover anti-cancer therapies. Computational intelligence is being harnessed to analyze this type of data and is proving indispensable to scientific progress.

EXPERT OPINION

In the future, comprehensive profiling of all kinds of patient data (e.g., serum molecules, environmental exposures) can be used to build universal networks that should help us elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying diseases and provide appropriate preventive measures, ensuring lifelong health and longevity.

Development and validation of polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer and breast cancer subtypes in Chinese women

Background

Studies investigating breast cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) in Chinese women are scarce. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate PRSs that could be used to stratify risk for overall and subtype-specific breast cancer in Chinese women, and to evaluate the performance of a newly proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based approach for PRS construction.

Methods

The PRSs were constructed using the dataset from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and validated in an independent case-control study. Three approaches, including repeated logistic regression (RLR), logistic ridge regression (LRR) and ANN based approach, were used to build the PRSs for overall and subtype-specific breast cancer based on 24 selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Predictive performance and calibration of the PRSs were evaluated unadjusted and adjusted for Gail-2 model 5-year risk or classical breast cancer risk factors.

Results

The primary PRS_ANN and PRS_LRR both showed modest predictive ability for overall breast cancer (odds ratio per interquartile range increase of the PRS in controls [IQ-OR] 1.76 vs 1.58; area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC] 0.601 vs 0.598) and remained to be predictive after adjustment. Although estrogen receptor negative (ER⁻) breast cancer was poorly predicted by the primary PRSs, the ER⁻ PRSs trained solely on ER⁻ breast cancer cases saw a substantial improvement in predictions of ER⁻ breast cancer.

Conclusions

The 24 SNPs based PRSs can provide additional risk information to help breast cancer risk stratification in the general population of China. The newly proposed ANN approach for PRS construction has potential to replace the traditional approaches, but more studies are needed to validate and investigate its performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09425-3.

The current status of risk-stratified breast screening

Apart from high-risk scenarios such as the presence of highly penetrant genetic mutations, breast screening typically comprises mammography or tomosynthesis strategies defined by age. However, age-based screening ignores the range of breast cancer risks that individual women may possess and is antithetical to the ambitions of personalised early detection. Whilst screening mammography reduces breast cancer mortality, this is at the risk of potentially significant harms including overdiagnosis with overtreatment, and psychological morbidity associated with false positives. In risk-stratified screening, individualised risk assessment may inform screening intensity/interval, starting age, imaging modality used, or even decisions not to screen. However, clear evidence for its benefits and harms needs to be established. In this scoping review, the authors summarise the established and emerging evidence regarding several critical dependencies for successful risk-stratified breast screening: risk prediction model performance, epidemiological studies, retrospective clinical evaluations, health economic evaluations and qualitative research on feasibility and acceptability. Family history, breast density or reproductive factors are not on their own suitable for precisely estimating risk and risk prediction models increasingly incorporate combinations of demographic, clinical, genetic and imaging-related parameters. Clinical evaluations of risk-stratified screening are currently limited. Epidemiological evidence is sparse, and randomised trials only began in recent years.

Performance of African-ancestry-specific polygenic hazard score varies according to local ancestry in 8q24

BACKGROUND

We previously developed an African-ancestry-specific polygenic hazard score (PHS46+African) that substantially improved prostate cancer risk stratification in men with African ancestry. The model consists of 46 SNPs identified in Europeans and 3 SNPs from 8q24 shown to improve model performance in Africans. Herein, we used principal component (PC) analysis to uncover subpopulations of men with African ancestry for whom the utility of PHS46+African may differ.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Genotypic data were obtained from the PRACTICAL consortium for 6253 men with African genetic ancestry. Genetic variation in a window spanning 3 African-specific 8q24 SNPs was estimated using 93 PCs. A Cox proportional hazards framework was used to identify the pair of PCs most strongly associated with the performance of PHS46+African. A calibration factor (CF) was formulated using Cox coefficients to quantify the extent to which the performance of PHS46+African varies with PC.

RESULTS

CF of PHS46+African was strongly associated with the first and twentieth PCs. Predicted CF ranged from 0.41 to 2.94, suggesting that PHS46+African may be up to 7 times more beneficial to some African men than others. The explained relative risk for PHS46+African varied from 3.6% to 9.9% for individuals with low and high CF values, respectively. By cross-referencing our data set with 1000 Genomes, we identified significant associations between continental and calibration groupings.

CONCLUSION

We identified PCs within 8q24 that were strongly associated with the performance of PHS46+African. Further research to improve the clinical utility of polygenic risk scores (or models) is needed to improve health outcomes for men of African ancestry.

Polygenic risk scores: An overview from bench to bedside for personalised medicine

Since the first polygenic risk score (PRS) in 2007, research in this area has progressed significantly. The increasing number of SNPs that have been identified by large scale GWAS analyses has fuelled the development of a myriad of PRSs for a wide variety of diseases and, more recently, to PRSs that potentially identify differential response to specific drugs. PRSs constitute a composite genomic biomarker and potential applications for PRSs in clinical practice encompass risk prediction and disease screening, early diagnosis, prognostication, and drug stratification to improve efficacy or reduce adverse drug reactions. Nevertheless, to our knowledge, no PRSs have yet been adopted into routine clinical practice. Beyond the technical considerations of PRS development, the major challenges that face PRSs include demonstrating clinical utility and circumnavigating the implementation of novel genomic technologies at scale into stretched healthcare systems. In this review, we discuss progress in developing disease susceptibility PRSs across multiple medical specialties, development of pharmacogenomic PRSs, and future directions for the field.

Clarifying the Trade-Offs of Risk-Stratified Screening for Prostate Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Study

Cancer risk prediction is necessary for precision early detection, which matches screening intensity to risk. However, practical steps for translating risk predictions to risk-stratified screening policies are not well established. We used a validated population prostate-cancer model to simulate the outcomes of strategies that increase intensity for men at high risk and reduce intensity for men at low risk. We defined risk by the Prompt Prostate Genetic Score (PGS) (Stratify Genomics, San Diego, California), a germline genetic test. We first recalibrated the model to reflect the disease incidence observed within risk strata using data from a large prevention trial where some participants were tested with Prompt PGS. We then simulated risk-stratified strategies in a population with the same risk distribution as the trial and evaluated the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening versus universal (risk-agnostic) screening. Prompt PGS risk-adapted screening was more cost-effective when universal screening was conservative. Risk-stratified strategies improved outcomes at a cost of less than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year compared with biennial screening starting at age 55 years, but risk stratification was not cost-effective compared with biennial screening starting at age 45. Heterogeneity of risk and fraction of the population within each stratum were also important determinants of cost-effectiveness.

Risk of Breast Cancer Among Carriers of Pathogenic Variants in Breast Cancer Predisposition Genes Varies by Polygenic Risk Score

PURPOSE

This study assessed the joint association of pathogenic variants (PVs) in breast cancer (BC) predisposition genes and polygenic risk scores (PRS) with BC in the general population.

METHODS

A total of 26,798 non-Hispanic white BC cases and 26,127 controls from predominately population-based studies in the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility consortium were evaluated for PVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, CHEK2, PALB2, BARD1, BRIP1, CDH1, and NF1. PRS based on 105 common variants were created using effect estimates from BC genome-wide association studies; the performance of an overall BC PRS and estrogen receptor-specific PRS were evaluated. The odds of BC based on the PVs and PRS were estimated using penalized logistic regression. The results were combined with age-specific incidence rates to estimate 5-year and lifetime absolute risks of BC across percentiles of PRS by PV status and first-degree family history of BC.

RESULTS

The estimated lifetime risks of BC among general-population noncarriers, based on 10th and 90th percentiles of PRS, were 9.1%-23.9% and 6.7%-18.2% for women with or without first-degree relatives with BC, respectively. Taking PRS into account, more than 95% of BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 carriers had > 20% lifetime risks of BC, whereas, respectively, 52.5% and 69.7% of ATM and CHEK2 carriers without first-degree relatives with BC, and 78.8% and 89.9% of those with a first-degree relative with BC had > 20% risk.

CONCLUSION

PRS facilitates personalization of BC risk among carriers of PVs in predisposition genes. Incorporating PRS into BC risk estimation may help identify > 30% of CHEK2 and nearly half of ATM carriers below the 20% lifetime risk threshold, suggesting the addition of PRS may prevent overscreening and enable more personalized risk management approaches.

Performance of Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in 760 Female CHEK2 Germline Mutation Carriers

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies suggest that the combined effects of breast cancer (BC)-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can improve BC risk stratification using polygenic risk scores (PRSs). The performance of PRSs in genome-wide association studies-independent clinical cohorts is poorly studied in individuals carrying mutations in moderately penetrant BC predisposition genes such as CHEK2.

METHODS

A total of 760 female CHEK2 mutation carriers were included; 561 women were affected with BC, of whom 74 developed metachronous contralateral BC (mCBC). For PRS calculations, 2 SNP sets covering 77 (SNP set 1, developed for BC risk stratification in women unselected for their BRCA1/2 germline mutation status) and 88 (SNP set 2, developed for BC risk stratification in female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers) BC-associated SNPs were used. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

Both SNP sets provided concordant PRS results at the individual level (r = 0.91, P < 2.20 × 10-16). Weighted cohort Cox regression analyses revealed statistically significant associations of PRSs with the risk for first BC. For SNP set 1, a hazard ratio of 1.71 per SD of the PRS was observed (95% confidence interval = 1.36 to 2.15, P = 3.87 × 10-6). PRSs identify a subgroup of CHEK2 mutation carriers with a predicted lifetime risk for first BC that exceeds the surveillance thresholds defined by international guidelines. Association of PRS with mCBC was examined via Cox regression analysis (SNP set 1 hazard ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 0.86 to 1.78, P = .26).

CONCLUSIONS

PRSs may be used to personalize risk-adapted preventive measures for women with CHEK2 mutations. Larger studies are required to assess the role of PRSs in mCBC predisposition.

Additional SNPs improve risk stratification of a polygenic hazard score for prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Polygenic hazard scores (PHS) can identify individuals with increased risk of prostate cancer. We estimated the benefit of additional SNPs on performance of a previously validated PHS (PHS46).

MATERIALS AND METHOD

180 SNPs, shown to be previously associated with prostate cancer, were used to develop a PHS model in men with European ancestry. A machine-learning approach, LASSO-regularized Cox regression, was used to select SNPs and to estimate their coefficients in the training set (75,596 men). Performance of the resulting model was evaluated in the testing/validation set (6,411 men) with two metrics: (1) hazard ratios (HRs) and (2) positive predictive value (PPV) of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. HRs were estimated between individuals with PHS in the top 5% to those in the middle 40% (HR95/50), top 20% to bottom 20% (HR80/20), and bottom 20% to middle 40% (HR20/50). PPV was calculated for the top 20% (PPV80) and top 5% (PPV95) of PHS as the fraction of individuals with elevated PSA that were diagnosed with clinically significant prostate cancer on biopsy.

RESULTS

166 SNPs had non-zero coefficients in the Cox model (PHS166). All HR metrics showed significant improvements for PHS166 compared to PHS46: HR95/50 increased from 3.72 to 5.09, HR80/20 increased from 6.12 to 9.45, and HR20/50 decreased from 0.41 to 0.34. By contrast, no significant differences were observed in PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating 120 additional SNPs (PHS166 vs PHS46) significantly improved HRs for prostate cancer, while PPV of PSA testing remained the same.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in prostate cancer: its implications in diagnostics and therapeutics

Prostate cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed malignancies in developed countries and approximately 248,530 new cases of prostate cancer are likely to be diagnosed in the United States in 2021. During the late 1990s and 2000s, the prostate cancer-related death rate has decreased by 4% per year on average because of advancements in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. However, the non-specificity of PSA to distinguish between benign and malignant forms of cancer is a major concern in the management of prostate cancer. Despite other risk factors in the pathogenesis of prostate cancer, recent advancement in molecular genetics suggests that genetic heredity plays a crucial role in prostate carcinogenesis. Approximately, 60% of heritability and more than 100 well-recognized single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (SNPs) have been found to be associated with prostate cancer and constitute a major risk factor in the development of prostate cancer. Recent findings revealed that a low to moderate effect on the progression of prostate cancer of individual SNPs was observed compared to a strong progressive effect when SNPs were in combination. Here, in this review, we made an attempt to critically analyze the role of SNPs and associated genes in the development of prostate cancer and their implications in diagnostics and therapeutics. A better understanding of the role of SNPs in prostate cancer susceptibility may improve risk prediction, enhance fine-mapping, and furnish new insights into the underlying pathophysiology of prostate cancer.

Women's Views on Multifactorial Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Risk-Stratified Screening: A Population-Based Survey from Four Provinces in Canada

Risk-stratified screening for breast cancer (BC) is increasingly considered as a promising approach. However, its implementation is challenging and needs to be acceptable to women. We examined Canadian women’s attitudes towards, comfort level about, and willingness to take part in BC risk-stratified screening. We conducted an online survey in women aged 30 to 69 years in four Canadian provinces. In total, 4293 women completed the questionnaire (response rate of 63%). The majority of women (63.5% to 72.8%) expressed favorable attitudes towards BC risk-stratified screening. Most women reported that they would be comfortable providing personal and genetic information for BC risk assessment (61.5% to 67.4%) and showed a willingness to have their BC risk assessed if offered (74.8%). Most women (85.9%) would also accept an increase in screening frequency if they were at higher risk, but fewer (49.3%) would accept a reduction in screening frequency if they were at lower risk. There were few differences by province; however, outcomes varied by age, education level, marital status, income, perceived risk, history of BC, prior mammography, and history of genetic test for BC (all p ≤ 0.01). Risk-based BC screening using multifactorial risk assessment appears to be acceptable to most women. This suggests that the implementation of this approach is likely to be well-supported by Canadian women.

The STHLM3-model, Risk-based Prostate Cancer Testing Identifies Men at High Risk Without Inducing Negative Psychosocial Effects

Background

The new STHLM3 test, combining protein markers, genetic markers, and clinical data to assess a man's prostate cancer (PCa) risk, has been investigated in Sweden within the frame of the STHLM3 trial.

Objective

To assess whether the STHLM3 test influences men's worry level, PCa knowledge, attitude, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

Design setting and participants

Invitations with login to the web survey were mailed to 10 000 men, 50-69 yr of age, who were eligible for the STHLM3 trial. The survey was sent 3 mo before invitation to the STHLM3 trial (baseline) and 5 mo after STHLM3 (follow-up). At baseline, the men were unaware of the upcoming invitation to STHLM3. The survey covered the following: PCa-specific worry and perceived vulnerability, knowledge about PCa, attitude toward PCa testing and health behavior, and HRQoL.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Survey scores were compared between baseline and follow-up by using the nonparametric Wilcoxon-signed rank tests for paired samples. Analysis of covariance was performed for PCa risk group comparisons.

Results and limitations

A total of 994 men (10%) responded to our survey at baseline and follow-up, and were assessed as follows: low risk: 421 men; intermediate risk: 421 men; and high risk:152, of whom 59 were diagnosed with PCa after further investigation. In men assessed as having low and intermediate risk, level of worrying decreased at follow-up (p <  0.001), whereas no changes were observed in men at high risk. Moreover, no HRQoL changes were observed over time. The low response rate is the main limitation.

Conclusions

We found that the STHLM3 model, a risk-based PCa test, showed no negative impact on the well-being of men.

Patient summary

Since our results suggest that the risk-based screening as used in STHLM3 did not induce negative psychological effects on the participants, we can recommend this risk-based approach for population-based prostate cancer screening.

A Genetic Risk Score to Personalize Prostate Cancer Screening, Applied to Population Data

BACKGROUND

A polygenic hazard score (PHS), the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes, was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening.

METHODS

United Kingdom population incidence data (Cancer Research United Kingdom) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using HRs estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age, when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-year-standard risk), was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups.

RESULTS

The expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-year-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age.

CONCLUSIONS

PHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man's PHS.

IMPACT

Personalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions.

Active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy in PSA-detected clinically localised prostate cancer: the ProtecT three-arm RCT

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the UK. Prostate-specific antigen testing followed by biopsy leads to overdetection, overtreatment as well as undertreatment of the disease. Evidence of treatment effectiveness has lacked because of the paucity of randomised controlled trials comparing conventional treatments.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness of conventional treatments for localised prostate cancer (active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy) in men aged 50-69 years.

DESIGN

A prospective, multicentre prostate-specific antigen testing programme followed by a randomised trial of treatment, with a comprehensive cohort follow-up.

SETTING

Prostate-specific antigen testing in primary care and treatment in nine urology departments in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Between 2001 and 2009, 228,966 men aged 50-69 years received an invitation to attend an appointment for information about the Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study and a prostate-specific antigen test; 82,429 men were tested, 2664 were diagnosed with localised prostate cancer, 1643 agreed to randomisation to active monitoring (n = 545), radical prostatectomy (n = 553) or radical radiotherapy (n = 545) and 997 chose a treatment.

INTERVENTIONS

The interventions were active monitoring, radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy.

TRIAL PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Definite or probable disease-specific mortality at the 10-year median follow-up in randomised participants.

SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall mortality, metastases, disease progression, treatment complications, resource utilisation and patient-reported outcomes.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences between the groups for 17 prostate cancer-specific (p = 0.48) and 169 all-cause (p = 0.87) deaths. Eight men died of prostate cancer in the active monitoring group (1.5 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.7 to 3.0); five died of prostate cancer in the radical prostatectomy group (0.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.2 per 1000 person years) and four died of prostate cancer in the radical radiotherapy group (0.7 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 2.0 per 1000 person years). More men developed metastases in the active monitoring group than in the radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy groups: active monitoring, n = 33 (6.3 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 4.5 to 8.8); radical prostatectomy, n = 13 (2.4 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2 per 1000 person years); and radical radiotherapy, n = 16 (3.0 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 1.9 to 4.9 per 1000 person-years; p = 0.004). There were higher rates of disease progression in the active monitoring group than in the radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy groups: active monitoring (n = 112; 22.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 19.0 to 27.5 per 1000 person years); radical prostatectomy (n = 46; 8.9 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 6.7 to 11.9 per 1000 person-years); and radical radiotherapy (n = 46; 9.0 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval 6.7 to 12.0 per 1000 person years; p < 0.001). Radical prostatectomy had the greatest impact on sexual function/urinary continence and remained worse than radical radiotherapy and active monitoring. Radical radiotherapy's impact on sexual function was greatest at 6 months, but recovered somewhat in the majority of participants. Sexual and urinary function gradually declined in the active monitoring group. Bowel function was worse with radical radiotherapy at 6 months, but it recovered with the exception of bloody stools. Urinary voiding and nocturia worsened in the radical radiotherapy group at 6 months but recovered. Condition-specific quality-of-life effects mirrored functional changes. No differences in anxiety/depression or generic or cancer-related quality of life were found. At the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the probabilities that each arm was the most cost-effective option were 58% (radical radiotherapy), 32% (active monitoring) and 10% (radical prostatectomy).

LIMITATIONS

A single prostate-specific antigen test and transrectal ultrasound biopsies were used. There were very few non-white men in the trial. The majority of men had low- and intermediate-risk disease. Longer follow-up is needed.

CONCLUSIONS

At a median follow-up point of 10 years, prostate cancer-specific mortality was low, irrespective of the assigned treatment. Radical prostatectomy and radical radiotherapy reduced disease progression and metastases, but with side effects. Further work is needed to follow up participants at a median of 15 years.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN20141297.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 37. See the National Institute for Health Research Journals Library website for further project information.

The emerging field of polygenic risk scores and perspective for use in clinical care

Genetic testing is used widely for diagnostic, carrier and predictive testing in monogenic diseases. Until recently, there were no genetic testing options available for multifactorial complex diseases like heart disease, diabetes and cancer. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been invaluable in identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with increased or decreased risk for hundreds of complex disorders. For a given disease, SNPs can be combined to generate a cumulative estimation of risk known as a polygenic risk score (PRS). After years of research, PRSs are increasingly used in clinical settings. In this article, we will review the literature on how both genome-wide and restricted PRSs are developed and the relative merit of each. The validation and evaluation of PRSs will also be discussed, including the recognition that PRS validity is intrinsically linked to the methodological and analytical approach of the foundation GWAS together with the ethnic characteristics of that cohort. Specifically, population differences may affect imputation accuracy, risk magnitude and direction. Even as PRSs are being introduced into clinical practice, there is a push to combine them with clinical and demographic risk factors to develop a holistic disease risk. The existing evidence regarding the clinical utility of PRSs is considered across four different domains: informing population screening programs, guiding therapeutic interventions, refining risk for families at high risk, and facilitating diagnosis and predicting prognostic outcomes. The evidence for clinical utility in relation to five well-studied disorders is summarized. The potential ethical, legal and social implications are also highlighted.

Machine learning-based lifetime breast cancer risk reclassification compared with the BOADICEA model: impact on screening recommendations

Background

The clinical utility of machine-learning (ML) algorithms for breast cancer risk prediction and screening practices is unknown. We compared classification of lifetime breast cancer risk based on ML and the BOADICEA model. We explored the differences in risk classification and their clinical impact on screening practices.

Methods

We used three different ML algorithms and the BOADICEA model to estimate lifetime breast cancer risk in a sample of 112,587 individuals from 2481 families from the Oncogenetic Unit, Geneva University Hospitals. Performance of algorithms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AU-ROC) curve. Risk reclassification was compared for 36,146 breast cancer-free women of ages 20–80. The impact on recommendations for mammography surveillance was based on the Swiss Surveillance Protocol.

Results

The predictive accuracy of ML-based algorithms (0.843 ≤ AU-ROC ≤ 0.889) was superior to BOADICEA (AU-ROC = 0.639) and reclassified 35.3% of women in different risk categories. The largest reclassification (20.8%) was observed in women characterised as ‘near population’ risk by BOADICEA. Reclassification had the largest impact on screening practices of women younger than 50.

Conclusion

ML-based reclassification of lifetime breast cancer risk occurred in approximately one in three women. Reclassification is important for younger women because it impacts clinical decision- making for the initiation of screening.

Robustness of risk-based allocation of resources for disease prevention

Risk models for disease incidence can be useful for allocating resources for disease prevention if risk assessment is not too expensive. Assume there is a preventive intervention that should be given to everyone, but preventive resources are limited. We optimize risk-based prevention strategies and investigate robustness to modeling assumptions. The optimal strategy defines the proportion of the population to be given risk assessment and who should be offered intervention. The optimal strategy depends on the ratio of available resources to resources needed to intervene on everyone, and on the ratio of the costs of risk assessment to intervention. Risk assessment is not recommended if it is too expensive. Preventive efficiency decreases with decreasing compliance to risk assessment or intervention. Risk measurement error has little effect nor does misspecification of the risk distribution. Ignoring population substructure has small effects on optimal prevention strategy but can lead to modest over- or under-spending. We give conditions under which ignoring population substructure has no effect on optimal strategy. Thus, a simple one-population model offers robust guidance on prevention strategy but requires data on available resources, costs of risk assessment and intervention, population risk distribution, and probabilities of acceptance of risk assessment and intervention.

A case-control evaluation of 143 single nucleotide polymorphisms for breast cancer risk stratification with classical factors and mammographic density

Panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) stratify risk for breast cancer in women from the general population, but studies are needed assess their use in a fully comprehensive model including classical risk factors, mammographic density and more than 100 SNPs associated with breast cancer. A case-control study was designed (1,668 controls, 405 cases) in women aged 47-73 years attending routine screening in Manchester UK, and enrolled in a wider study to assess methods for risk assessment. Risk from classical questionnaire risk factors was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick model; mean percentage visual mammographic density was scored by two independent readers. DNA extracted from saliva was genotyped at selected SNPs using the OncoArray. A predefined polygenic risk score based on 143 SNPs was calculated (SNP143). The odds ratio (OR, and 95% confidence interval, CI) per interquartile range (IQ-OR) of SNP143 was estimated unadjusted and adjusted for Tyrer-Cuzick and breast density. Secondary analysis assessed risk by oestrogen receptor (ER) status. The primary polygenic risk score was well calibrated (O/E OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.86-1.34) and accuracy was retained after adjustment for Tyrer-Cuzick risk and mammographic density (IQ-OR unadjusted 2.12, 95% CI% 1.75-2.42; adjusted 2.06, 95% CI 1.75-2.42). SNP143 was a risk factor for ER+ and ER- breast cancer (adjusted IQ-OR, ER+ 2.11, 95% CI 1.78-2.51; ER- 1.81, 95% CI 1.16-2.84). In conclusion, polygenic risk scores based on a large number of SNPs improve risk stratification in combination with classical risk factors and mammographic density, and SNP143 was similarly predictive for ER-positive and ER-negative disease.

Age dependence of modern clinical risk groups for localized prostate cancer-A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Optimal prostate cancer (PCa) screening strategies will focus on men likely to have potentially lethal disease. Age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs) by modern clinical risk groups could inform risk stratification efforts for screening.

METHODS

This cross-sectional population study identified all men diagnosed with PCa in Norway from 2014 to 2017 (n = 20,356). Age, Gleason score (primary plus secondary), and clinical stage were extracted. Patients were assigned to clinical risk groups: low, favorable intermediate, unfavorable intermediate, high, regional, and metastatic. Chi-square tests analyzed the independence of Gleason scores and modern PCa risk groups with age. ASIRs for each risk group were calculated as the product of Norwegian ASIRs for all PCa and the proportions observed for each risk category.

RESULTS

Older age was significantly associated with a higher Gleason score and more advanced disease. The percentages of men with Gleason 8 to 10 disease among men aged 55 to 59, 65 to 69, 75 to 79, and 85 to 89 years were 16.5%, 23.4%, 37.2%, and 59.9%, respectively (P < .001); the percentages of men in the same age groups with at least high-risk disease were 29.3%, 39.1%, 60.4%, and 90.6%, respectively (P < .001). The maximum ASIRs (per 100,000 men) for low-risk, favorable intermediate-risk, unfavorable intermediate-risk, high-risk, regional, and metastatic disease were 157.1 for those aged 65 to 69 years, 183.8 for those aged 65 to 69 years, 194.8 for those aged 70 to 74 years, 408.3 for those aged 75 to 79 years, 159.7 for those aged ≥85 years, and 314.0 for those aged ≥85 years, respectively. At the ages of 75 to 79 years, the ASIR of high-risk disease was approximately 6 times greater than the ASIR at 55 to 59 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of clinically significant localized PCa increases with age. Healthy older men may benefit from screening.

Association of Nongenetic Factors With Breast Cancer Risk in Genetically Predisposed Groups of Women in the UK Biobank Cohort

IMPORTANCE

The association between noninherited factors, including lifestyle factors, and the risk of breast cancer (BC) in women and the association between BC and genetic makeup are only partly characterized. A study using data on current genetic stratification may help in the characterization.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between healthier lifestyle habits and BC risk in genetically predisposed groups.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from UK Biobank, a prospective cohort comprising 2728 patients with BC and 88 489 women without BC, were analyzed. The data set used for the analysis was closed on March 31, 2019. The analysis was restricted to postmenopausal white women. Classification of healthy lifestyle was based on Cancer Research UK guidance (healthy weight, regular exercise, no use of hormone replacement therapy for more than 5 years, no oral contraceptive use, and alcohol intake <3 times/wk). Three groups were established: favorable (≥4 healthy factors), intermediate (2-3 healthy factors), and unfavorable (≤1 healthy factor). The genetic contribution was estimated using the polygenic risk scores of 305 preselected single-nucleotide variations. Polygenic risk scores were categorized into 3 tertiles (low, intermediate, and high).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) of the lifestyles and polygenic risk scores associated with a malignant neoplasm of the breast.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age of the 2728 women with BC was 60.1 (5.5) years, and mean age of the 88 489 women serving as controls was 59.4 (4.9) years. The median follow-up time for the cohort was 10 years (maximum 13 years) (interquartile range, 9.44-10.82 years). Women with BC had a higher body mass index (relative risk [RR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.23), performed less exercise (RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25), used hormonal replacement therapy for longer than 5 years (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34), used more oral contraceptives (RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.93-1.12), and had greater alcohol intake (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19) compared with the controls. Overall, 20 657 women (23.3%) followed a favorable lifestyle, 60 195 women (68.0%) followed an intermediate lifestyle, and 7637 women (8.6%) followed an unfavorable lifestyle. The RR of the highest genetic risk group was 2.55 (95% CI, 2.28-2.84), and the RR of the most unfavorable lifestyle category was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.25-1.65). The association of lifestyle and BC within genetic subgroups showed lower HRs among women following a favorable lifestyle compared with intermediate and unfavorable lifestyles among all of the genetic groups: women with an unfavorable lifestyle had a higher risk of BC in the low genetic group (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.13-2.34), intermediate genetic group (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.46-2.58), and high genetic group (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.74) compared with the reference group of favorable lifestyle. Intermediate lifestyle was also associated with a higher risk of BC among the low genetic group (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.09-1.80) and the intermediate genetic group (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.12-1.68).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of data on women in the UK Biobank, a healthier lifestyle with more exercise, healthy weight, low alcohol intake, no oral contraceptive use, and no or limited hormonal replacement therapy use appeared to be associated with a reduced level of risk for BC, even if the women were at higher genetic risk for BC.

External validation of a mammographic texture marker for breast cancer risk in a case-control study

Purpose: The pattern of dense tissue on a mammogram appears to provide additional information than overall density for risk assessment, but there has been little consistency in measures of texture identified. The purpose of this study is thus to validate a mammographic texture feature developed from a previous study in a new setting.

Approach: A case–control study (316 invasive cases and 1339 controls) of women in Virginia, USA was used to validate a mammographic texture feature (MMTEXT) derived in a independent previous study. Analysis of predictive ability was adjusted for age, demographic factors, questionnaire risk factors (combined through the Tyrer-Cuzick model), and optionally BI-RADS breast density. Odds ratios per interquartile range (IQ-OR) in controls were estimated. Subgroup analysis assessed heterogeneity by mode of cancer detection (94 not detected by mammography).

Results: MMTEXT was not a significant risk factor at 0.05 level after adjusting for classical risk factors (IQ-OR=1.16, 95%CI 0.92 to 1.46), nor after further adjustment for BI-RADS density (IQ-OR=0.92, 95%CI 0.76 to 1.10). There was weak evidence that MMTEXT was more predictive for cancers that were not detected by mammography (unadjusted for density: IQ-OR=1.46, 95%CI 0.99 to 2.15 versus 1.03, 95%CI 0.79 to 1.35, Phet 0.10; adjusted for density: IQ-OR=1.11, 95%CI 0.70 to 1.77 versus 0.76, 95%CI 0.55 to 1.05, Phet 0.21).

Conclusions: MMTEXT is unlikely to be a useful imaging marker for invasive breast cancer risk assessment in women attending mammography screening. Future studies may benefit from a larger sample size to confirm this as well as developing and validating other measures of risk. This negative finding demonstrates the importance of external validation.

Personalized breast cancer screening strategies: A systematic review and quality assessment

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of breast cancer screening is still under debate. Our objective was to systematically review studies assessing personalized breast cancer screening strategies based on women's individual risk and to conduct a risk of bias assessment.

METHODS

We followed the standard methods of The Cochrane Collaboration and PRISMA declaration and searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Clinical Trials databases for studies published in English. The quality of the studies was assessed using the ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Questionnaire and The Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Two independent reviewers screened full texts and evaluated the risk of bias.

RESULTS

Out of the 1533 initially retrieved citations, we included 13 studies. Three studies were randomized controlled trials, while nine were mathematical modeling studies, and one was an observational pilot study. The trials are in the recruitment phase and have not yet reported their results. All three trials used breast density and age to define risk groups, and two of them included family history, previous biopsies, and genetic information. Among the mathematical modeling studies, the main risk factors used to define risk groups were breast density, age, family history, and previous biopsies. Six studies used genetic information to define risk groups. The most common outcome measures were the gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALY), absolute costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), while the main outcome in the observational study was the detection rate. In all models, personalized screening strategies were shown to be effective. The randomized trials were of good quality. The modeling studies showed moderate risk of bias but there was wide variability across studies. The observational study showed a low risk of bias but its utility was moderate due to its pilot design and its relatively small scale.

CONCLUSIONS

There is some evidence of the effectiveness of screening personalization in terms of QUALYs and ICER from the modeling studies and the observational study. However, evidence is lacking on feasibility and acceptance by the target population.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO: CRD42018110483.

Cost-Effectiveness of Personalized Screening for Colorectal Cancer Based on Polygenic Risk and Family History

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence for personalizing colorectal cancer screening based on risk factors. We compared the cost-effectiveness of personalized colorectal cancer screening based on polygenic risk and family history to uniform screening.

METHODS

Using the MISCAN-Colon model, we simulated a cohort of 100 million 40-year-olds, offering them uniform or personalized screening. Individuals were categorized based on polygenic risk and family history of colorectal cancer. We varied screening strategies by start age, interval and test and estimated costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). In our analysis, we (i) assessed the cost-effectiveness of uniform screening; (ii) developed personalized screening scenarios based on optimal screening strategies by risk group; and (iii) compared the cost-effectiveness of both.

RESULTS

At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY, the optimal uniform screening scenario was annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) from ages 50 to 74 years, whereas for personalized screening the optimal screening scenario consisted of annual and biennial FIT screening except for those at highest risk who were offered 5-yearly colonoscopy from age 50 years. Although these scenarios gained the same number of QALYs (17,887), personalized screening was not cost-effective, costing an additional $428,953 due to costs associated with determining risk (assumed to be $240 per person). Personalized screening was cost-effective when these costs were less than ∼$48.

CONCLUSIONS

Uniform colorectal cancer screening currently appears more cost-effective than personalized screening based on polygenic risk and family history. However, cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on the cost of determining risk.

IMPACT

Personalized screening could become increasingly viable as costs for determining risk decrease.

Cost-Effectiveness of Risk-Stratified Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Polygenic Risk: Current Status and Future Potential

Background

Although uniform colonoscopy screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality, risk-based screening may be more efficient. We investigated whether CRC screening based on polygenic risk is a cost-effective alternative to current uniform screening, and if not, under what conditions it would be.

Methods

The MISCAN-Colon model was used to simulate a hypothetical cohort of US 40-year-olds. Uniform screening was modeled as colonoscopy screening at ages 50, 60, and 70 years. For risk-stratified screening, individuals underwent polygenic testing with current and potential future discriminatory performance (area under the receiver-operating curve [AUC] of 0.60 and 0.65–0.80, respectively). Polygenic testing results were used to create risk groups, for which colonoscopy screening was optimized by varying the start age (40–60 years), end age (70–85 years), and interval (1–20 years).

Results

With current discriminatory performance, optimal screening ranged from once-only colonoscopy at age 60 years for the lowest-risk group to six colonoscopies at ages 40–80 years for the highest-risk group. While maintaining the same health benefits, risk-stratified screening increased costs by $59 per person. Risk-stratified screening could become cost-effective if the AUC value would increase beyond 0.65, the price per polygenic test would drop to less than $141, or risk-stratified screening would lead to a 5% increase in screening participation.

Conclusions

Currently, CRC screening based on polygenic risk is unlikely to be cost-effective compared with uniform screening. This is expected to change with a greater than 0.05 increase in AUC value, a greater than 30% reduction in polygenic testing costs, or a greater than 5% increase in adherence with screening.

Breast Cancer Risk Model Requirements for Counseling, Prevention, and Screening

Background

Incorporation of polygenic risk scores and mammographic density into models to predict breast cancer incidence can increase discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) from 0.6 for models based only on epidemiologic factors to 0.7. It is timely to assess what impact these improvements will have on individual counseling and on public health prevention and screening strategies, and to determine what further improvements are needed.

Methods

We studied various clinical and public health applications using a log-normal distribution of risk.

Results

Provided they are well calibrated, even risk models with AUCs of 0.6 to 0.7 provide useful perspective for individual counseling and for weighing the harms and benefits of preventive interventions in the clinic. At the population level, they are helpful for designing preventive intervention trials, for assessing reductions in absolute risk from reducing exposure to modifiable risk factors, and for resource allocation (although a higher AUC would be desirable for risk-based allocation). Other public health applications require higher AUCs that can only be achieved with risk predictors 1.6 to 8.8 times as strong as all those yet discovered combined. Such applications are preventing an appreciable proportion of population disease when employing a high-risk prevention strategy and deciding who should be screened for subclinical disease.

Conclusions

Current and foreseeable risk models are useful for counseling and some prevention activities, but given the daunting challenge of achieving, for example, an AUC of 0.8, considerable effort should be put into finding effective preventive interventions and screening strategies with fewer adverse effects.

Willingness to decrease mammogram frequency among women at low risk for hereditary breast cancer

This study aimed to assess women's willingness to alter mammogram frequency based on their low risk for HBOC, and to examine if cognitive and emotional factors are associated with women's inclination to decrease mammogram frequency. We conducted an online survey with women (N = 124) who were unlikely to have a BRCA mutation and at average population risk for breast cancer based on family history. Most women were either white (50%) or African American (38%) and were 50 years or older (74%). One-third of women (32%) were willing to decrease mammogram frequency (as consistent with the USPSTF guideline), 42% reported being unwilling and 26% were unsure. Multivariate logistic regression showed that feeling worried about breast cancer (Adjust OR = 0.33, p = 0.01), greater genetic risk knowledge (Adjust OR = 0.74, p = 0.047), and more frequent past mammogram screening (Adjust OR = 0.13, p = 0.001) were associated with being less willing to decrease screening frequency. Findings suggest that emerging genomics-informed medical guidelines may not be accepted by many patients when the recommendations go against what is considered standard practice. Further study of the interplay between emotion- and cognition-based processing of the HBOC screen result will be important for strategizing communication interventions aimed at realizing the potential of precision public health.

Machine learning techniques for personalized breast cancer risk prediction: comparison with the BCRAT and BOADICEA models

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive breast cancer risk prediction models enable identifying and targeting women at high-risk, while reducing interventions in those at low-risk. Breast cancer risk prediction models used in clinical practice have low discriminatory accuracy (0.53-0.64). Machine learning (ML) offers an alternative approach to standard prediction modeling that may address current limitations and improve accuracy of those tools. The purpose of this study was to compare the discriminatory accuracy of ML-based estimates against a pair of established methods-the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) and Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) models.

METHODS

We quantified and compared the performance of eight different ML methods to the performance of BCRAT and BOADICEA using eight simulated datasets and two retrospective samples: a random population-based sample of U.S. breast cancer patients and their cancer-free female relatives (N = 1143), and a clinical sample of Swiss breast cancer patients and cancer-free women seeking genetic evaluation and/or testing (N = 2481).

RESULTS

Predictive accuracy (AU-ROC curve) reached 88.28% using ML-Adaptive Boosting and 88.89% using ML-random forest versus 62.40% with BCRAT for the U.S. population-based sample. Predictive accuracy reached 90.17% using ML-adaptive boosting and 89.32% using ML-Markov chain Monte Carlo generalized linear mixed model versus 59.31% with BOADICEA for the Swiss clinic-based sample.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a striking improvement in the accuracy of classification of women with and without breast cancer achieved with ML algorithms compared to the state-of-the-art model-based approaches. High-accuracy prediction techniques are important in personalized medicine because they facilitate stratification of prevention strategies and individualized clinical management.

Why the Gold Standard Approach by Mammography Demands Extension by Multiomics? Application of Liquid Biopsy miRNA Profiles to Breast Cancer Disease Management

In the global context, the epidemic of breast cancer (BC) is evident for the early 21st century. Evidence shows that national mammography screening programs have sufficiently reduced BC related mortality. Therefore, the great utility of the mammography-based screening is not an issue. However, both false positive and false negative BC diagnosis, excessive biopsies, and irradiation linked to mammography application, as well as sub-optimal mammography-based screening, such as in the case of high-dense breast tissue in young females, altogether increase awareness among the experts regarding the limitations of mammography-based screening. Severe concerns regarding the mammography as the “golden standard” approach demanding complementary tools to cover the evident deficits led the authors to present innovative strategies, which would sufficiently improve the quality of the BC management and services to the patient. Contextually, this article provides insights into mammography deficits and current clinical data demonstrating the great potential of non-invasive diagnostic tools utilizing circulating miRNA profiles as an adjunct to conventional mammography for the population screening and personalization of BC management.

Evaluating the Integration of Genomics into Cancer Screening Programmes: Challenges and Opportunities

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

As the costs of genomic testing have fallen, and our understanding of genetic susceptibility to cancers has grown, there has been increasing interest in incorporating testing for cancer susceptibility genes, and polygenic risk estimates, into population cancer screening. A growing body of evidence suggests that this would be both clinically and cost-effective. In this article, we aim to explore the frameworks used to evaluate screening programmes, evaluate whether population screening for cancer susceptibility can be assessed using these standards, and consider additional issues and outcomes of importance in this context.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are tensions between traditional approaches of genetic testing (utilising tests with high sensitivity and specificity) and the principles of population screening (in which the screening test typically has low specificity), as well as the frameworks used to evaluate the two. Despite the existence of many screening guidelines, including consensus papers, these often do not align fully with broader considerations of genetic test evaluation. Population screening for genetic risk in cancer shifts the focus from diagnostics to prognostication and has wider implications for personal and familial health than existing screening programmes. In addition, understanding of the prevalence and penetrance of cancer susceptibility genes, required by many screening guidelines, may only be obtainable through population-level testing; prospective multi-disciplinary research alongside implementation will be essential.

SUMMARY

Appropriate evaluation of genetic screening for cancer risk will require modification of existing screening frameworks to incorporate additional complexity of outcomes and population values. As evidence supporting population screening for cancer susceptibility mounts, development of an appropriate evaluative framework, and expansion of public dialogue will be key to informing policy.

The WISDOM Personalized Breast Cancer Screening Trial: Simulation Study to Assess Potential Bias and Analytic Approaches

Background

WISDOM (Women Informed to Screen Depending on Measures of Risk) is a randomized trial to assess whether personalized breast cancer screening—where women are screened biannually, annually, biennially, or not at all depending on risk and age—can prevent as many advanced (stage IIB or higher) cancers as annual screening in women ages 40–74 years across 5 years of trial time. The short study time in combination with design choices of not requiring study entry and exit mammograms for all participants may introduce different sources of bias in favor of either the personalized or the annual arm.

Methods

We designed a simulation model and performed 5000 virtual WISDOM trials to assess potential biases. Each virtual trial simulated 65 000 randomly assigned participants who were each assigned a risk stratum and a time to stage of at least IIB cancer sampled from an exponential distribution with the hazard rate based on the risk stratum. Results from the virtual trials were used to evaluate two candidate analysis strategies with respect to susceptibility for introducing bias: 1) difference between arms in total number of events over total trial time, and 2) difference in number of events within complete screening cycles.

Results

Based on the simulations, about 86 stage IIB or higher cancers will be detected within the trial and the total exposure time will be about 74 000 years in each arm. Potential ascertainment bias is introduced at study entry and exit. Analysis strategy 1 works better for the nonscreened stratum, whereas method 2 is considerably more unbiased for the strata of women screened biennially or every 6 months.

Conclusion

Combining the two candidate analysis approaches gives a reasonably unbiased analysis based on the simulations and is the method we will use for the primary analysis in WISDOM. Publishing the WISDOM analysis approach provides transparency and can aid the design and analysis of other individualized screening trials.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Cost-effectiveness and Benefit-to-Harm Ratio of Risk-Stratified Screening for Breast Cancer: A Life-Table Model

Importance

The age-based or "one-size-fits-all" breast screening approach does not take into account the individual variation in risk. Mammography screening reduces death from breast cancer at the cost of overdiagnosis. Identifying risk-stratified screening strategies with a more favorable ratio of overdiagnoses to breast cancer deaths prevented would improve the quality of life of women and save resources.

Objective

To assess the benefit-to-harm ratio and the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified breast screening programs compared with a standard age-based screening program and no screening.

Design, Setting, and Population

A life-table model was created of a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women in the United Kingdom, aged 50 years, with follow-up to age 85 years, using (1) findings of the Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening and (2) risk distribution based on polygenic risk profile. The analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service perspective.

Interventions

The modeled interventions were (1) no screening, (2) age-based screening (mammography screening every 3 years from age 50 to 69 years), and (3) risk-stratified screening (a proportion of women aged 50 years with a risk score greater than a threshold risk were offered screening every 3 years until age 69 years) considering each percentile of the risk distribution. All analyses took place between July 2016 and September 2017.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overdiagnoses, breast cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, costs in British pounds, and net monetary benefit (NMB). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess uncertainty around parameter estimates. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per year.

Results

The risk-stratified analysis of this life-table model included a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women followed up from age 50 to 85 years. As the risk threshold was lowered, the incremental cost of the program increased linearly, compared with no screening, with no additional QALYs gained below 35th percentile risk threshold. Of the 3 screening scenarios, the risk-stratified scenario with risk threshold at the 70th percentile had the highest NMB, at a willingness to pay of £20 000 (US $26 800) per QALY gained, with a 72% probability of being cost-effective. Compared with age-based screening, risk-stratified screening at the 32nd percentile vs 70th percentile risk threshold would cost £20 066 (US $26 888) vs £537 985 (US $720 900) less, would have 26.7% vs 71.4% fewer overdiagnoses, and would avert 2.9% vs 9.6% fewer breast cancer deaths, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

Not offering breast cancer screening to women at lower risk could improve the cost-effectiveness of the screening program, reduce overdiagnosis, and maintain the benefits of screening.

Cancer genetics, precision prevention and a call to action

More than 15 years have passed since the identification, through linkage, of 'first-wave' susceptibility genes for common cancers (BRCA1, BRCA2, MLH1 and MSH2). These genes have strong frequency-penetrance profiles, such that the associated clinical utility probably remains relevant regardless of the context of ascertainment. 'Second-wave' genes, not tractable by linkage, were subsequently identified by mutation screening of candidate genes (PALB2, ATM, CHEK2, BRIP1, RAD51C and RAD51D). Their innately weaker frequency-penetrance profiles have rendered delineation of cancer associations, risks and variant pathogenicity challenging, thereby compromising their clinical application. Early germline exome-sequencing endeavors for common cancers did not yield the long-anticipated slew of 'next-wave' genes but instead implied a highly polygenic genomic architecture requiring much larger experiments to make any substantive inroads into gene discovery. As such, the 'genetic economics' of frequency penetrance clearly indicates that focused identification of carriers of first-wave-gene mutations is most impactful for cancer control. With screening, prevention and early detection at the forefront of the cancer management agenda, we propose that the time is nigh for the initiation of national population-testing programs to identify carriers of first-wave gene mutation carriers. To fully deliver a precision prevention program, long-term, large-scale mutation studies that capture longitudinal clinical data and serial biosamples are required.

Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment: a study on 35 441 individuals from the Danish general population

Background

We hypothesized that common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidences of breast cancer and other cancers in the general population, and identify low risk women among those invited for screening mammography.

Participants and Methods

About 35 441 individuals from the Danish general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0–2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score, as it is likely more sensitive in detecting associations with risks of other endpoints than breast cancer.

Results

Breast cancer incidence in the 19 010 women was increased across allele sum quintiles (log-rank trend test; P = 1×10 − 12), but not incidence of other cancers (P = 0.41). Age- and study-adjusted hazard ratio for the fifth versus the first allele sum quintile was 1.82 (95% confidence interval; 1.53–2.18). Corresponding hazard ratios per allele were 1.04 (1.03–1.05) and 1.05 (1.02–1.08) for breast cancer incidence and mortality, similar across risk factors. In 50-year-old women, the starting age for screening mammography in Denmark, the average 5-year breast cancer risk was 1.5%, overall and 1.1%, 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.7%, 2.1%, for the first through fifth quintile, respectively. Based on age, nulliparity, familial history, and allele sum, 25% of women aged 50–69 years, and 94% of women aged 40–49 years, had absolute 5-year breast cancer risks ≤ 1.5%. Using polygenic risk score led to similar results.

Conclusion

Common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidence and mortality of breast cancer in the general population, but not with other cancers. After including breast cancer allele sum in risk assessment, 25% of women currently being offered screening mammography had an absolute 5-year risk below the cutoff of average risk for a 50-year-old woman.

Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age.

DESIGN

Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa.

SETTING

Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium.

PARTICIPANTS

All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set.

RESULTS

In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

The ANDROMEDA prospective cohort study: predictive value of combined criteria to tailor breast cancer screening and new opportunities from circulating markers: study protocol

Background

In recent years growing interest has been posed on alternative ways to screen women for breast cancer involving different imaging techniques or adjusting screening interval by breast cancer risk estimates. A new research area is studying circulating microRNAs as molecular biomarkers potentially useful for non invasive early detection together with the analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).

The Andromeda study is a prospective cohort study on women attending breast cancer screening in a northern Italian area. The aims of the study are: 1) to define appropriate women risk-based stratifications for personalized screening considering different factors (reproductive, family and biopsy history, breast density, lifestyle habits); 2) to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of selected circulating microRNAs in a case-control study nested within the above mentioned cohort.

Methods

About 21,000 women aged 46–67 years compliant to screening mammography are expected to be enrolled. At enrolment, information on well-known breast cancer risk factors and life-styles habits are collected through self-admistered questionnaires. Information on breast density and anthropometric measurements (height, weight, body composition, and waist circumference) are recorded. In addition, women are requested to provide a blood sample for serum, plasma and buffy-coat storing for subsequent molecular analyses within the nested case-control study. This investigation will be performed on approximately 233 cases (screen-detected) and 699 matched controls to evaluate SNPs and circulating microRNAs. The whole study will last three years and the cohort will be followed up for ten years to observe the onset of new breast cancer cases.

Discussion

Nowadays women undergo the same screening protocol, independently of their breast density and their individual risk to develop breast cancer. New criteria to better stratify women in risk groups could enable the screening strategies to target high-risk women while reducing interventions in those at low-risk. In this frame the present study will contribute in identifying the feasibility and impact of implementing personalized breast cancer screening.

Trial registration

NCT02618538 (retrospectively registered on 27–11-2015.)

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-017-3784-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genome-wide association studies of cancer: current insights and future perspectives

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide an agnostic approach for investigating the genetic basis of complex diseases. In oncology, GWAS of nearly all common malignancies have been performed, and over 450 genetic variants associated with increased risks have been identified. As well as revealing novel pathways important in carcinogenesis, these studies have shown that common genetic variation contributes substantially to the heritable risk of many common cancers. The clinical application of GWAS is starting to provide opportunities for drug discovery and repositioning as well as for cancer prevention. However, deciphering the functional and biological basis of associations is challenging and is in part a barrier to fully unlocking the potential of GWAS.