Polygenic prediction via Bayesian regression and continuous shrinkage priors

Forensic height estimation using polygenic score in Korean population

Height is known to be a classically heritable trait controlled by complex polygenic factors. Numerous height-associated genetic variants across the genome have been identified so far. It is also a representative of externally visible characteristics (EVC) for predicting appearance in forensic science. When biological evidence at a crime scene is deficient in identifying an individual, the examination of forensic DNA phenotyping using some genetic variants could be considered. In this study, we aimed to predict 'height', a representative forensic phenotype, by using a small number of genetic variants when short tandem repeat (STR) analysis is hard with insufficient biological samples. Our results not only replicated previous genetic signals but also indicated an upward trend in polygenic score (PGS) with increasing height in the validation and replication stages for both genders. These results demonstrate that the established SNP sets in this study could be used for height estimation in the Korean population. Specifically, since the PGS model constructed in this study targets only a small number of SNPs, it contributes to enabling forensic DNA phenotyping even at crime scenes with a minimal amount of biological evidence. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study to evaluate a PGS model for height estimation in the Korean population using GWAS signals. Our study offers insight into the polygenic effect of height in East Asians, incorporating genetic variants from non-Asian populations.

Genetic predisposition to bone mineral density and their health conditions in East Asians

Osteoporosis, a condition defined by low BMD (typically < -2.5 SD), causes a higher fracture risk and leads to significant economic, social, and clinical impacts. Genome-wide studies mainly in Caucasians have found many genetic links to osteoporosis, fractures, and BMD, with limited research in East Asians (EAS). We investigated the genetic aspects of BMD in 86 716 individuals from the Taiwan Biobank and their causal links to health conditions within EAS. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was conducted, followed by observational studies, polygenic risk score assessments, and genetic correlation analyses to identify associated health conditions linked to BMD. GWAS and gene-based GWAS studies identified 78 significant SNPs and 75 genes related to BMD, highlighting pathways like Hedgehog, WNT-mediated, and TGF-β. Our cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses for BMD and osteoporosis consistently validated their genetic correlations with BMI and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in EAS. Higher BMD was linked to lower osteoporosis risk but increased BMI and T2D, whereas osteoporosis linked to lower BMI, waist circumference, hemoglobinA1c, and reduced T2D risk. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization analyses revealed that a higher BMI causally increases BMD in EAS. However, no direct causal relationships were found between BMD and T2D, or between osteoporosis and either BMI or T2D. This study identified key genetic factors for bone health in Taiwan, and revealed significant health conditions in EAS, particularly highlighting the genetic interplay between bone health and metabolic traits like T2D and BMI.

Genetic network structure of 13 psychiatric disorders in the general population

Psychiatric disorders frequently co-occur and share common symptoms and genetic backgrounds. Previous research has used genome-wide association studies to identify the interrelationships among psychiatric disorders and identify clusters of disorders; however, these methods have limitations in terms of their ability to examine the relationships among disorders as a network structure and their generalizability to the general population. In this study, we explored the network structure of the polygenic risk score (PRS) for 13 psychiatric disorders in a general population (276,249 participants of European ancestry from the UK Biobank) and identified communities and the centrality of the network. In this network, the nodes represented a PRS for each psychiatric disorder and the edges represented the connections between nodes. The psychiatric disorders comprised four robust communities. The first community included attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, major depressive disorder, and anxiety disorder. The second community consisted of bipolar I and II disorders, schizophrenia, and anorexia nervosa. The third group included Tourette's syndrome and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Cannabis use disorder, alcohol use disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder make up the fourth community. The PRS of schizophrenia had the highest values for the three metrics (strength, betweenness, and closeness) in the network. Our findings provide a comprehensive genetic network of psychiatric disorders and biological evidence for the classification of psychiatric disorders.

Pharmacogenomics polygenic risk score: Ready or not for prime time?

Pharmacogenomic Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) have emerged as a tool to address the polygenic nature of pharmacogenetic phenotypes, increasing the potential to predict drug response. Most pharmacogenomic PRS have been extrapolated from disease-associated variants identified by genome wide association studies (GWAS), although some have begun to utilize genetic variants from pharmacogenomic GWAS. As pharmacogenomic PRS hold the promise of enabling precision medicine, including stratified treatment approaches, it is important to assess the opportunities and challenges presented by the current data. This assessment will help determine how pharmacogenomic PRS can be advanced and transitioned into clinical use. In this review, we present a summary of recent evidence, evaluate the current status, and identify several challenges that have impeded the progress of pharmacogenomic PRS. These challenges include the reliance on extrapolations from disease genetics and limitations inherent to pharmacogenomics research such as low sample sizes, phenotyping inconsistencies, among others. We finally propose recommendations to overcome the challenges and facilitate the clinical implementation. These recommendations include standardizing methodologies for phenotyping, enhancing collaborative efforts, developing new statistical methods to capitalize on drug-specific genetic associations for PRS construction. Additional recommendations include enhancing the infrastructure that can integrate genomic data with clinical predictors, along with implementing user-friendly clinical decision tools, and patient education. Ethical and regulatory considerations should address issues related to patient privacy, informed consent and safe use of PRS. Despite these challenges, ongoing research and large-scale collaboration is likely to advance the field and realize the potential of pharmacogenomic PRS.

The relationship between 11 different polygenic longevity scores, parental lifespan, and disease diagnosis in the UK Biobank

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) strongly suggest that most traits and diseases have a polygenic component. This observation has motivated the development of disease-specific "polygenic scores (PGS)" that are weighted sums of the effects of disease-associated variants identified from GWAS that correlate with an individual's likelihood of expressing a specific phenotype. Although most GWAS have been pursued on disease traits, leading to the creation of refined "Polygenic Risk Scores" (PRS) that quantify risk to diseases, many GWAS have also been pursued on extreme human longevity, general fitness, health span, and other health-positive traits. These GWAS have discovered many genetic variants seemingly protective from disease and are often different from disease-associated variants (i.e., they are not just alternative alleles at disease-associated loci) and suggest that many health-positive traits also have a polygenic basis. This observation has led to an interest in "polygenic longevity scores (PLS)" that quantify the "risk" or genetic predisposition of an individual towards health. We derived 11 different PLS from 4 different available GWAS on lifespan and then investigated the properties of these PLS using data from the UK Biobank (UKB). Tests of association between the PLS and population structure, parental lifespan, and several cancerous and non-cancerous diseases, including death from COVID-19, were performed. Based on the results of our analyses, we argue that PLS are made up of variants not only robustly associated with parental lifespan, but that also contribute to the genetic architecture of disease susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality.

Multimodal Neuroimaging Summary Scores as Neurobiological Markers of Psychosis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Structural brain alterations are well-established features of schizophrenia but they do not effectively predict disease/disease risk. Similar to polygenic risk scores in genetics, we integrated multifactorial aspects of brain structure into a summary "Neuroscore" and examined its potential as a marker of disease.

STUDY DESIGN

We extracted measures from T1-weighted scans and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) models from three studies with schizophrenia and healthy individuals. We calculated individual-level summary scores (Neuroscores) for T1-weighted and DTI measures and a combined score (Multimodal Neuroscore-MM). We assessed each score's ability to differentiate schizophrenia cases from controls and its relationship to clinical symptomatology, intelligence quotient (IQ), and medication dosage. We assessed Neuroscore specificity by performing all analyses in a more inclusive psychosis sample and by using scores generated from MDD effect sizes.

STUDY RESULTS

All Neuroscores significantly differentiated schizophrenia cases from controls (T1 d = 0.56, DTI d = 0.29, MM d = 0.64) to a greater degree than individual brain regions. Higher Neuroscores (ie, increased liability) were associated with lower IQ (T1 β = -0.26, DTI β = -0.15, MM β = -0.30). Higher T1-weighted Neuroscores were associated with higher positive and negative symptom severity (Positive β = 0.21, Negative β = 0.16); Higher Multimodal Neuroscores were associated with higher positive symptom severity (β = 0.30). SZ Neuroscores outperformed MDD Neuroscores in predicting IQ (T1: z = 3.5, q = 0.0007; MM: z = 1.8, q = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Neuroscores are a step toward leveraging widespread structural brain alterations in psychosis to identify robust neurobiological markers of disease. Future studies will assess ways to improve neuroscore calculation, including developing the optimal methods to calculate neuroscores and considering disorder overlap.

Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events

A diagnosis of epilepsy has significant consequences for an individual but is often challenging in clinical practice. Novel biomarkers are thus greatly needed. Here, we investigated how common genetic factors (epilepsy polygenic risk scores, [PRSs]) influence epilepsy risk in detailed longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) of > 700k Finns and Estonians. We found that a high genetic generalized epilepsy PRS (PRSGGE) increased risk for genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.73 per PRSGGE standard deviation [SD]) across lifetime and within 10 years after an unspecified seizure event. The effect of PRSGGE was significantly larger on idiopathic generalized epilepsies, in females and for earlier epilepsy onset. Analogously, we found significant but more modest focal epilepsy PRS burden associated with non-acquired focal epilepsy (NAFE). Here, we outline the potential of epilepsy specific PRSs to serve as biomarkers after a first seizure event.

Application of polygenic scores to a deeply phenotyped sample enriched for substance use disorders reveals extensive pleiotropy with psychiatric and somatic traits

Co-occurring psychiatric, medical, and substance use disorders (SUDs) are common, but the complex pathways leading to such comorbidities are poorly understood. A greater understanding of genetic influences on this phenomenon could inform precision medicine efforts. We used the Yale-Penn dataset, a cross-sectional sample enriched for individuals with SUDs, to examine pleiotropic effects of genetic liability for psychiatric and somatic traits. Participants completed an in-depth interview that provides information on demographics, environment, medical illnesses, and psychiatric and SUDs. Polygenic scores (PGS) for psychiatric disorders and somatic traits were calculated in European-ancestry (EUR; n = 5691) participants and, when discovery datasets were available, for African-ancestry (AFR; n = 4918) participants. Phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) were then conducted. In AFR participants, the only PGS with significant associations was bipolar disorder (BD), all of which were with substance use phenotypes. In EUR participants, PGS for major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), schizophrenia (SCZ), body mass index (BMI), coronary artery disease (CAD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) all showed significant associations, the majority of which were with phenotypes in the substance use categories. For instance, PGSMDD was associated with over 200 phenotypes, 15 of which were depression-related (e.g., depression criterion count), 55 of which were other psychiatric phenotypes, and 126 of which were substance use phenotypes; and PGSBMI was associated with 138 phenotypes, 105 of which were substance related. Genetic liability for psychiatric and somatic traits is associated with numerous phenotypes across multiple categories, indicative of the broad genetic liability of these traits.

Common polygenic variation in the early medication change (EMC) cohort affects disorder risk, but not the antidepressant treatment response

BACKGROUND

Given the great interest in identifying reliable predictors of the response to antidepressant drugs, the present study investigated whether polygenic scores (PGS) for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and antidepressant treatment response (ADR) were related to the complex trait of antidepressant response in the Early Medication Change (EMC) cohort.

METHODS

In this secondary analysis of the EMC trial (N = 889), 481 MDD patients were included and compared to controls from a population-based cohort. Patients were treated over eight weeks within a pre-defined treatment-algorithm. We investigated patients' genetic variation associated with MDD and ADR, using PGS and examined the association of PGS with treatment outcomes (early improvement, response, remission). Additionally, the influence of two cytochrome P450 drug-metabolizing enzymes (CYP2C19, CYP2D6) was determined.

RESULTS

PGS for MDD was significantly associated with disorder status (NkR2 = 2.48 %, p < 1*10-12), with higher genetic burden in EMC patients compared to controls. The PGS for ADR did not explain remission status. The PGS for MDD and ADR were also not associated with treatment outcomes. In addition, there were no effects of common CYP450 gene variants on ADR.

LIMITATIONS

The study was limited by variability in the outcome parameters due to differences in treatment and insufficient sample size in the used ADR genome-wide association study (GWAS).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study confirms a polygenic contribution to MDD burden in the EMC patients. Larger GWAS with homogeneity in antidepressant treatments are needed to explore the genetic variation associated with ADR and realize the potential of PGS to contribute to specific response subtypes.

Network Security Prediction of Industrial Control Based on Projection Equalization Optimization Algorithm

This paper predicts the network security posture of an ICS, focusing on the reliability of Industrial Control Systems (ICSs). Evidence reasoning (ER) and belief rule base (BRB) techniques are employed to establish an ICS network security posture prediction model, ensuring the secure operation and prediction of the ICS. This model first integrates various information from the ICS to determine its network security posture value. Subsequently, through ER iteration, information fusion occurs and serves as an input for the BRB prediction model, which necessitates initial parameter setting by relevant experts. External factors may influence the experts' predictions; therefore, this paper proposes the Projection Equalization Optimization (P-EO) algorithm. This optimization algorithm updates the initial parameters to enhance the prediction of the ICS network security posture through the model. Finally, industrial datasets are used as experimental data to improve the credibility of the prediction experiments and validate the model's predictive performance in the ICS. Compared with other methods, this paper's prediction model demonstrates a superior prediction accuracy. By further comparing with other algorithms, this paper has a certain advantage when using less historical data to make predictions.

Eye-brain connections revealed by multimodal retinal and brain imaging genetics

The retina, an anatomical extension of the brain, forms physiological connections with the visual cortex of the brain. Although retinal structures offer a unique opportunity to assess brain disorders, their relationship to brain structure and function is not well understood. In this study, we conducted a systematic cross-organ genetic architecture analysis of eye-brain connections using retinal and brain imaging endophenotypes. We identified novel phenotypic and genetic links between retinal imaging biomarkers and brain structure and function measures from multimodal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with many associations involving the primary visual cortex and visual pathways. Retinal imaging biomarkers shared genetic influences with brain diseases and complex traits in 65 genomic regions, with 18 showing genetic overlap with brain MRI traits. Mendelian randomization suggests bidirectional genetic causal links between retinal structures and neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease. Overall, our findings reveal the genetic basis for eye-brain connections, suggesting that retinal images can help uncover genetic risk factors for brain disorders and disease-related changes in intracranial structure and function.

Genome-Wide Association Study Points to Novel Locus for Gilles de la Tourette Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Tourette syndrome (TS) is a childhood-onset neurodevelopmental disorder of complex genetic architecture and is characterized by multiple motor tics and at least one vocal tic persisting for more than 1 year.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis integrating a novel TS cohort with previously published data, resulting in a sample size of 6133 individuals with TS and 13,565 ancestry-matched control participants.

RESULTS

We identified a genome-wide significant locus on chromosome 5q15. Integration of expression quantitative trait locus, Hi-C (high-throughput chromosome conformation capture), and genome-wide association study data implicated the NR2F1 gene and associated long noncoding RNAs within the 5q15 locus. Heritability partitioning identified statistically significant enrichment in brain tissue histone marks, while polygenic risk scoring of brain volume data identified statistically significant associations with right and left thalamus volumes and right putamen volume.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work presents novel insights into the neurobiology of TS, thereby opening up new directions for future studies.

Real-time dynamic polygenic prediction for streaming data

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are promising tools for advancing precision medicine. However, existing PRS construction methods rely on static summary statistics derived from genome-wide association studies (GWASs), which are often updated at lengthy intervals. As genetic data and health outcomes are continuously being generated at an ever-increasing pace, the current PRS training and deployment paradigm is suboptimal in maximizing the prediction accuracy of PRSs for incoming patients in healthcare settings. Here, we introduce real-time PRS-CS (rtPRS-CS), which enables online, dynamic refinement and calibration of PRS as each new sample is collected, without the need to perform intermediate GWASs. Through extensive simulation studies, we evaluate the performance of rtPRS-CS across various genetic architectures and training sample sizes. Leveraging quantitative traits from the Mass General Brigham Biobank and UK Biobank, we show that rtPRS-CS can integrate massive streaming data to enhance PRS prediction over time. We further apply rtPRS-CS to 22 schizophrenia cohorts in 7 Asian regions, demonstrating the clinical utility of rtPRS-CS in dynamically predicting and stratifying disease risk across diverse genetic ancestries.

Utility of polygenic risk scores to aid in the diagnosis of rheumatic diseases

Rheumatic diseases (RDs) are characterized by autoimmunity and autoinflammation and are recognized as complex due to the interplay of multiple genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors in their pathogenesis. The rapid advancement of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has enabled the identification of numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with RD susceptibility. Based on these SNPs, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have emerged as promising tools for quantifying genetic risk in this disease group. This chapter reviews the current status of PRSs in assessing the risk of RDs and discusses their potential to improve the accuracy of the diagnosis of these complex diseases through their ability to discriminate among different RDs. PRSs demonstrate a high discriminatory capacity for various RDs and show potential clinical utility. As GWASs continue to evolve, PRSs are expected to enable more precise risk stratification by integrating genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, thereby refining individual risk predictions and advancing disease management strategies.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Effects of polygenic risk score and sodium and potassium intake on hypertension in Asians: A nationwide prospective cohort study

Genetic factors, lifestyle, and diet have been shown to play important roles in the development of hypertension. Increased salt intake is an important risk factor for hypertension. However, research on the involvement of genetic factors in the relationship between salt intake and hypertension in Asians is lacking. We aimed to investigate the risk of hypertension in relation to sodium and potassium intake and the effects of genetic factors on their interactions. We used Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study data and calculated the polygenic risk score (PRS) for the effect of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). We also conducted multivariable logistic modeling to evaluate associations among incident hypertension, PRSSBP, PRSDBP, and sodium and potassium intake. In total, 41,351 subjects were included in the test set. The top 10% PRSSBP group was the youngest of the three groups (bottom 10%, middle, top 10%), had the highest proportion of women, and had the highest body mass index, baseline BP, red meat intake, and alcohol consumption. The multivariable logistic regression model revealed the risk of hypertension was significantly associated with higher PRSSBP, higher sodium intake, and lower potassium intake. There was significant interaction between sodium intake and PRSSBP for incident hypertension especially in sodium intake ≥2.0 g/day and PRSSBP top 10% group (OR 1.27 (1.07-1.51), P = 0.007). Among patients at a high risk of incident hypertension due to sodium intake, lifestyle modifications and sodium restriction were especially important to prevent hypertension.

How group structure impacts the numbers at risk for coronary artery disease: polygenic risk scores and nongenetic risk factors in the UK Biobank cohort

The UK Biobank (UKB) is a large cohort study that recruited over 500,000 British participants aged 40-69 in 2006-2010 at 22 assessment centers from across the United Kingdom. Self-reported health outcomes and hospital admission data are 2 types of records that include participants' disease status. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common cause of death in the UKB cohort. After distinguishing between prevalence and incidence CAD events for all UKB participants, we identified geographical variations in age-standardized rates of CAD between assessment centers. Significant distributional differences were found between the pooled cohort equation scores of UKB participants from England and Scotland using the Mann-Whitney test. Polygenic risk scores of UKB participants from England and Scotland and from different assessment centers differed significantly using permutation tests. Our aim was to discriminate between assessment centers with different disease rates by collecting data on disease-related risk factors. However, relying solely on individual-level predictions and averaging them to obtain group-level predictions proved ineffective, particularly due to the presence of correlated covariates resulting from participation bias. By using the Mundlak model, which estimates a random effects regression by including the group means of the independent variables in the model, we effectively addressed these issues. In addition, we designed a simulation experiment to demonstrate the functionality of the Mundlak model. Our findings have applications in public health funding and strategy, as our approach can be used to predict case rates in the future, as both population structure and lifestyle changes are uncertain.

Imputation Server PGS: an automated approach to calculate polygenic risk scores on imputation servers

Polygenic scores (PGS) enable the prediction of genetic predisposition for a wide range of traits and diseases by calculating the weighted sum of allele dosages for genetic variants associated with the trait or disease in question. Present approaches for calculating PGS from genotypes are often inefficient and labor-intensive, limiting transferability into clinical applications. Here, we present 'Imputation Server PGS', an extension of the Michigan Imputation Server designed to automate a standardized calculation of polygenic scores based on imputed genotypes. This extends the widely used Michigan Imputation Server with new functionality, bringing the simplicity and efficiency of modern imputation to the PGS field. The service currently supports over 4489 published polygenic scores from publicly available repositories and provides extensive quality control, including ancestry estimation to report population stratification. An interactive report empowers users to screen and compare thousands of scores in a fast and intuitive way. Imputation Server PGS provides a user-friendly web service, facilitating the application of polygenic scores to a wide range of genetic studies and is freely available at https://imputationserver.sph.umich.edu.

Genetic Correlates of Treatment-Resistant Depression: Insights from Polygenic Scores Across Cognitive, Temperamental, and Sleep Traits in the All of US cohort

Background

Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) is a major challenge in mental health, affecting a significant number of patients and leading to considerable economic and social burdens. The etiological factors contributing to TRD are complex and not fully understood.

Objective

To investigate the genetic factors associated with TRD using polygenic scores (PGS) across various traits, and to explore their potential role in the etiology of TRD using large-scale genomic data from the All of Us Research Program (AoU).

Methods

Data from 292,663 participants in the AoU were analyzed using a case-cohort design. Treatment resistant depression (TRD), treatment responsive Major Depressive Disorder (trMDD), and all others who have no formal diagnosis of Major Depressive Disorder (non-MDD) were identified through diagnostic codes and prescription patterns. Polygenic scores (PGS) for 61 unique traits from seven domains were used and logistic regressions were conducted to assess associations between PGS and TRD. Finally, Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the predictive value of PGS for progression rate from the diagnostic event of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) to TRD.

Results

In the discovery set (104128 non-MDD, 16640 trMDD, and 4177 TRD), 44 of 61 selected PGS were found to be significantly associated with MDD, regardless of treatment responsiveness. Eleven of them were found to have stronger associations with TRD than with trMDD, encompassing PGS from domains in education, cognition, personality, sleep, and temperament. Genetic predisposition for insomnia and specific neuroticism traits were associated with increased TRD risk (OR range from 1.05 to 1.15), while higher education and intelligence scores were protective (ORs 0.88 and 0.91, respectively). These associations are consistent across two other independent sets within AoU (n = 104,388 and 63,330). Among 28,964 individuals tracked over time, 3,854 developed TRD within an average of 944 days (95% CI: 883 ~ 992 days) after MDD diagnosis. All eleven previously identified and replicated PGS were found to be modulating the conversion rate from MDD to TRD. Thus, those having higher education PGS would experiencing slower conversion rates than those who have lower education PGS with hazard ratios in 0.79 (80th versus 20th percentile, 95% CI: 0.74 ~ 0.85). Those who had higher insomnia PGS experience faster conversion rates than those who had lower insomnia PGS, with hazard ratios in 1.21 (80th versus 20th percentile, 95% CI: 1.13 ~ 1.30).

Conclusions

Our results indicate that genetic predisposition related to neuroticism, cognitive function, and sleep patterns play a significant role in the development of TRD. These findings underscore the importance of considering genetic and psychosocial factors in managing and treating TRD. Future research should focus on integrating genetic data with clinical outcomes to enhance our understanding of pathways leading to treatment resistance.

Genomic insights into the shared and distinct genetic architecture of cognitive function and schizophrenia

Cognitive impairment is a major determinant of functional outcomes in schizophrenia, however, understanding of the biological mechanisms underpinning cognitive dysfunction in the disorder remains incomplete. Here, we apply Genomic Structural Equation Modelling to identify latent cognitive factors capturing genetic liabilities to 12 cognitive traits measured in the UK Biobank. We identified three broad factors that underly the genetic correlations between the cognitive tests. We explore the overlap between latent cognitive factors, schizophrenia, and schizophrenia symptom dimensions using a complementary set of statistical approaches, applied to data from the latest schizophrenia genome-wide association study (Ncase = 53,386, Ncontrol = 77,258) and the Thematically Organised Psychosis study (Ncase = 306, Ncontrol = 1060). Global genetic correlations showed a significant moderate negative genetic correlation between each cognitive factor and schizophrenia. Local genetic correlations implicated unique genomic regions underlying the overlap between schizophrenia and each cognitive factor. We found substantial polygenic overlap between each cognitive factor and schizophrenia and biological annotation of the shared loci implicated gene-sets related to neurodevelopment and neuronal function. Lastly, we show that the common genetic determinants of the latent cognitive factors are not predictive of schizophrenia symptoms in the Norwegian Thematically Organized Psychosis cohort. Overall, these findings inform our understanding of cognitive function in schizophrenia by demonstrating important differences in the shared genetic architecture of schizophrenia and cognitive abilities.

Cross-Phenotype GWAS Supports Shared Genetic Susceptibility to Systemic Sclerosis and Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Objective

An increased risk of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been reported in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Our study aims to investigate the shared genetic susceptibility between the two disorders and to define candidate causal genes using cross-phenotype GWAS meta-analysis.

Methods

We performed cross-phenotype GWAS meta-analysis and colocalization analysis for SSc and PBC. We performed both genome-wide and locus-based analysis, including tissue and pathway enrichment analyses, fine-mapping, colocalization analyses with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) datasets, and phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS). Finally, we used an integrative approach to prioritize candidate causal genes from the novel loci.

Results

We detected a strong genetic correlation between SSc and PBC (rg = 0.84, p = 1.7 × 10-6). In the cross-phenotype GWAS meta-analysis, we identified 44 non-HLA loci that reached genome-wide significance (p < 5 × 10-8). Evidence of shared causal variants between SSc and PBC was found for nine loci, five of which were novel. Integrating multiple sources of evidence, we prioritized CD40, ERAP1, PLD4, SPPL3, and CCDC113 as novel candidate causal genes. The CD40 risk locus colocalized with trans-pQTLs of multiple plasma proteins involved in B cell function.

Conclusion

Our study supports a strong shared genetic susceptibility between SSc and PBC. Through cross-phenotype analyses, we have prioritized several novel candidate causal genes and pathways for these disorders.

Polygenic risk score for blood pressure and lifestyle factors with overall and CVD mortality: a prospective cohort study in a Japanese population

Although previous polygenic risk score (PRS) studies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) focused on incidence, few studies addressed CVD mortality and quantified risks by environmental exposures in different genetic liability groups. This prospective study aimed to examine the associations of blood pressure PRS with all-cause and CVD mortality and to quantify the attributable risk by modifiable lifestyles across different PRS strata. 9,296 participants in the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study without hypertension at baseline were analyzed in this analysis. PRS for systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (PRSSBP and PRSDBP) were developed using publicly available Biobank Japan GWAS summary statistics. CVD-related mortality was defined by the International Classification of Diseases 10th version (I00-I99). Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine associations of PRSs and lifestyle variables (smoking, drinking, and dietary sodium intake) with mortality. During a median 12.6-year follow-up period, we observed 273 all-cause and 41 CVD mortality cases. Compared to the middle PRS group (20-80th percentile), adjusted hazard ratios for CVD mortality at the top PRS group ( > 90th percentile) were 3.67 for PRSSBP and 2.92 for PRSDBP. Attributable risks of CVD mortality by modifiable lifestyles were higher in the high PRS group ( > 80th percentile) compared with the low PRS group (0-80th percentile). In summary, blood pressure PRS is associated with CVD mortality in the general Japanese population. Our study implies that integrating PRS with lifestyle could contribute to identify target populations for lifestyle intervention even though improvement of discriminatory ability by PRS alone is limited.

Subjective Cognitive Decline Plus and Longitudinal Assessment and Risk for Cognitive Impairment

Importance

Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is recognized to be in the Alzheimer disease (AD) cognitive continuum. The SCD Initiative International Working Group recently proposed SCD-plus (SCD+) features that increase risk for future objective cognitive decline but that have not been assessed in a large community-based setting.

Objective

To assess SCD risk for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD, and all-cause dementia, using SCD+ criteria among cognitively normal adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Framingham Heart Study, a community-based prospective cohort study, assessed SCD between 2005 and 2019, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Participants 60 years and older with normal cognition at analytic baseline were included. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) models were adjusted for baseline age, sex, education, APOE ε4 status, and tertiles of AD polygenic risk score (PRS), excluding the APOE region. Data were analyzed from May 2021 to November 2023.

Exposure

SCD was assessed longitudinally using a single question and considered present if endorsed at the last cognitively normal visit. It was treated as a time-varying variable, beginning at the first of consecutive, cognitively normal visits, including the last, at which it was endorsed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Consensus-diagnosed MCI, AD, and all-cause dementia.

Results

This study included 3585 participants (mean [SD] baseline age, 68.0 [7.7] years; 1975 female [55.1%]). A total of 1596 participants (44.5%) had SCD, and 770 (21.5%) were carriers of APOE ε4. APOE ε4 and tertiles of AD PRS status did not significantly differ between the SCD and non-SCD groups. MCI, AD, and all-cause dementia were diagnosed in 236 participants (6.6%), 73 participants (2.0%), and 89 participants (2.5%), respectively, during follow-up. On average, SCD preceded MCI by 4.4 years, AD by 6.8 years, and all-cause dementia by 6.9 years. SCD was significantly associated with survival time to MCI (hazard ratio [HR], 1.57; 95% CI, 1.22-2.03; P <.001), AD (HR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.89-4.70; P <.001), and all-cause dementia (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.44-3.18; P <.001). After adjustment for APOE and AD PRS, the hazards of SCD were largely unchanged.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this cohort study suggest that in a community setting, SCD reflecting SCD+ features was associated with an increased risk of future MCI, AD, and all-cause dementia with similar hazards estimated in clinic-based settings. SCD may be an independent risk factor for AD and other dementias beyond the risk incurred by APOE ε4 and AD PRS.

Identifying behaviour-related and physiological risk factors for suicide attempts in the UK Biobank

Suicide is a global public health challenge, yet considerable uncertainty remains regarding the associations of both behaviour-related and physiological factors with suicide attempts (SA). Here we first estimated polygenic risk scores (PRS) for SA in 334,706 UK Biobank participants and conducted phenome-wide association analyses considering 2,291 factors. We identified 246 (63.07%) behaviour-related and 200 (10.41%, encompassing neuroimaging, blood and metabolic biomarkers, and proteins) physiological factors significantly associated with SA-PRS, with robust associations observed in lifestyle factors and mental health. Further case-control analyses involving 3,558 SA cases and 149,976 controls mirrored behaviour-related associations observed with SA-PRS. Moreover, Mendelian randomization analyses supported a potential causal effect of liability to 58 factors on SA, such as age at first intercourse, neuroticism, smoking, overall health rating and depression. Notably, machine-learning classification models based on behaviour-related factors exhibited high discriminative accuracy in distinguishing those with and without SA (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.909 ± 0.006). This study provides comprehensive insights into diverse risk factors for SA, shedding light on potential avenues for targeted prevention and intervention strategies.

Association of genetic risk, lifestyle, and their interaction with obesity and obesity-related morbidities

The extent to which modifiable lifestyle factors offset the determined genetic risk of obesity and obesity-related morbidities remains unknown. We explored how the interaction between genetic and lifestyle factors influences the risk of obesity and obesity-related morbidities. The polygenic score for body mass index was calculated to quantify inherited susceptibility to obesity in 338,645 UK Biobank European participants, and a composite lifestyle score was derived from five obesogenic factors (physical activity, diet, sedentary behavior, alcohol consumption, and sleep duration). We observed significant interaction between high genetic risk and poor lifestyles (pinteraction < 0.001). Absolute differences in obesity risk between those who adhere to healthy lifestyles and those who do not had gradually expanded with an increase in polygenic score. Despite a high genetic risk for obesity, individuals can prevent obesity-related morbidities by adhering to a healthy lifestyle and maintaining a normal body weight. Healthy lifestyles should be promoted irrespective of genetic background.

Personal light exposure patterns and incidence of type 2 diabetes: analysis of 13 million hours of light sensor data and 670,000 person-years of prospective observation

Background

Light at night disrupts circadian rhythms, and circadian disruption is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Whether personal light exposure predicts diabetes risk has not been demonstrated in a large prospective cohort. We therefore assessed whether personal light exposure patterns predicted risk of incident type 2 diabetes in UK Biobank participants, using ∼13 million hours of light sensor data.

Methods

Participants (N = 84,790, age (M ± SD) = 62.3 ± 7.9 years, 58% female) wore light sensors for one week, recording day and night light exposure. Circadian amplitude and phase were modeled from weekly light data. Incident type 2 diabetes was recorded (1997 cases; 7.9 ± 1.2 years follow-up; excluding diabetes cases prior to light-tracking). Risk of incident type 2 diabetes was assessed as a function of day and night light, circadian phase, and circadian amplitude, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, and polygenic risk.

Findings

Compared to people with dark nights (0-50th percentiles), diabetes risk was incrementally higher across brighter night light exposure percentiles (50-70th: multivariable-adjusted HR = 1.29 [1.14-1.46]; 70-90th: 1.39 [1.24-1.57]; and 90-100th: 1.53 [1.32-1.77]). Diabetes risk was higher in people with lower modeled circadian amplitude (aHR = 1.07 [1.03-1.10] per SD), and with early or late circadian phase (aHR range: 1.06-1.26). Night light and polygenic risk independently predicted higher diabetes risk. The difference in diabetes risk between people with bright and dark nights was similar to the difference between people with low and moderate genetic risk.

Interpretation

Type 2 diabetes risk was higher in people exposed to brighter night light, and in people exposed to light patterns that may disrupt circadian rhythms. Avoidance of light at night could be a simple and cost-effective recommendation that mitigates risk of diabetes, even in those with high genetic risk.

Funding

Australian Government Research Training Program.

Genetic and Phenotypic Features of Schizophrenia in the UK Biobank

Importance

Large-scale biobanks provide important opportunities for mental health research, but selection biases raise questions regarding the comparability of individuals with those in clinical research settings.

Objective

To compare the genetic liability to psychiatric disorders in individuals with schizophrenia in the UK Biobank with individuals in the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) and to compare genetic liability and phenotypic features with participants recruited from clinical settings.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study included participants from the population-based UK Biobank and schizophrenia samples recruited from clinical settings (CLOZUK, CardiffCOGS, Cardiff F-Series, and Cardiff Affected Sib-Pairs). Data were collected between January 1993 and July 2021. Data analysis was conducted between July 2021 and June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

A genome-wide association study of UK Biobank schizophrenia case-control status was conducted, and the results were compared with those from the PGC via genetic correlations. To test for differences with the clinical samples, polygenic risk scores (PRS) were calculated for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, depression, and intelligence using PRS-CS. PRS and phenotypic comparisons were conducted using pairwise logistic regressions. The proportions of individuals with copy number variants associated with schizophrenia were compared using Firth logistic regression.

Results

The sample of 517 375 participants included 1438 UK Biobank participants with schizophrenia (550 [38.2%] female; mean [SD] age, 54.7 [8.3] years), 499 475 UK Biobank controls (271 884 [54.4%] female; mean [SD] age, 56.5 [8.1] years), and 4 schizophrenia research samples (4758 [28.9%] female; mean [SD] age, 38.2 [21.0] years). Liability to schizophrenia in UK Biobank was highly correlated with the latest genome-wide association study from the PGC (genetic correlation, 0.98; SE, 0.18) and showed the expected patterns of correlations with other psychiatric disorders. The schizophrenia PRS explained 6.8% of the variance in liability for schizophrenia case status in UK Biobank. UK Biobank participants with schizophrenia had significantly lower schizophrenia PRS than 3 of the clinically ascertained samples and significantly lower rates of schizophrenia-associated copy number variants than the CLOZUK sample. UK Biobank participants with schizophrenia had higher educational attainment and employment rates than the clinically ascertained schizophrenia samples, lower rates of smoking, and a later age of onset of psychosis.

Conclusions and Relevance

Individuals with schizophrenia in the UK Biobank, and likely other volunteer-based biobanks, represent those less severely affected. Their inclusion in wider studies should enhance the representation of the full spectrum of illness severity.

Distinguishing vulnerability and resilience to posttraumatic stress disorder evaluating traumatic experiences, genetic risk and electronic health records

What distinguishes vulnerability and resilience to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remains unclear. Levering traumatic experiences reporting, genetic data, and electronic health records (EHR), we investigated and predicted the clinical comorbidities (co-phenome) of PTSD vulnerability and resilience in the UK Biobank (UKB) and All of Us Research Program (AoU), respectively. In 60,354 trauma-exposed UKB participants, we defined PTSD vulnerability and resilience considering PTSD symptoms, trauma burden, and polygenic risk scores. EHR-based phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) were conducted to dissect the co-phenomes of PTSD vulnerability and resilience. Significant diagnostic endpoints were applied as weights, yielding a phenotypic risk score (PheRS) to conduct PheWAS of PTSD vulnerability and resilience PheRS in up to 95,761 AoU participants. EHR-based PheWAS revealed three significant phenotypes positively associated with PTSD vulnerability (top association "Sleep disorders") and five outcomes inversely associated with PTSD resilience (top association "Irritable Bowel Syndrome"). In the AoU cohort, PheRS analysis showed a partial inverse relationship between vulnerability and resilience with distinct comorbid associations. While PheRSvulnerability associations were linked to multiple phenotypes, PheRSresilience showed inverse relationships with eye conditions. Our study unveils phenotypic differences in PTSD vulnerability and resilience, highlighting that these concepts are not simply the absence and presence of PTSD.

Schizophrenia polygenic risk scores, clinical variables and genetic pathways as predictors of phenotypic traits of bipolar I disorder

AIM

We investigated the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from the schizophrenia GWAS (Trubetskoy et al., 2022) (SCZ3) for phenotypic traits of bipolar disorder type-I (BP-I) in 1878 BP-I cases and 2751 controls from Romania and UK.

METHODS

We used PRSice-v2.3.3 and PRS-CS for computing SCZ3-PRS for testing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with clinical variables for several BP-I subphenotypes and for pathway analysis. Non-linear predictive models were also used.

RESULTS

SCZ3-PRS significantly predicted psychosis, incongruent and congruent psychosis, general age-of-onset (AO) of BP-I, AO-depression, AO-Mania, rapid cycling in univariate regressions. A negative correlation between the number of depressive episodes and psychosis, mainly incongruent and an inverse relationship between increased SCZ3-SNP loading and BP-I-rapid cycling were observed. In random forest models comparing the predictive power of SCZ3-PRS alone and in combination with nine clinical variables, the best predictions were provided by combinations of SCZ3-PRS-CS and clinical variables closely followed by models containing only clinical variables. SCZ3-PRS performed worst. Twenty-two significant pathways underlying psychosis were identified.

LIMITATIONS

The combined RO-UK sample had a certain degree of heterogeneity of the BP-I severity: only the RO sample and partially the UK sample included hospitalized BP-I cases. The hospitalization is an indicator of illness severity. Not all UK subjects had complete subphenotype information.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that the SCZ3-PRS have a modest clinical value for predicting phenotypic traits of BP-I. For clinical use their best performance is in combination with clinical variables.

Using polygenic scores in combination with symptom rating scales to identify attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

BACKGROUND

The inclusion of biomarkers could improve diagnostic accuracy of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). One potential biomarker is the ADHD polygenic score (PGS), a measure of genetic liability for ADHD. This study aimed to investigate if the ADHD PGS can provide additional information alongside ADHD rating scales and examination of family history of ADHD to distinguish between ADHD cases and controls.

METHODS

Polygenic scores were calculated for 576 adults with ADHD and 530 ethnically matched controls. ADHD PGS was used alongside scores from the Wender-Utah Rating Scale (WURS) and the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS) as predictors of ADHD diagnosis in a set of nested logistic regression models. These models were compared by likelihood ratio (LR) tests, Akaike information criterion corrected for small samples (AICc), and Lee R². These analyses were repeated with family history of ADHD as a covariate in all models.

RESULTS

The ADHD PGS increased the variance explained of the ASRS by 0.58% points (pp) (R2ASRS = 61.11%, R2ASRS + PGS=61.69%), the WURS by 0.61pp (R2WURS = 77.33%, R2WURS + PGS= 77.94%), of ASRS and WURS together by 0.57pp (R2ASRS + WURS=80.84%, R2ASRS + WURS+PGS=81.40%), and of self-reported family history by 1.40pp (R2family = 28.06%, R2family + PGS=29.46%). These increases were statistically significant, as measured by LR tests and AICc.

CONCLUSION

We found that the ADHD PGS contributed additional information to common diagnostic aids. However, the increase in variance explained was small, suggesting that the ADHD PGS is currently not a clinically useful diagnostic aid. Future studies should examine the utility of ADHD PGS in ADHD prediction alongside non-genetic risk factors, and the diagnostic utility of the ADHD PGS should be evaluated as more genetic data is accumulated and computational tools are further refined.

Shared vulnerability and sex-dependent polygenic burden in psychotic disorders

Evidence suggests a remarkable shared genetic susceptibility between psychiatric disorders. However, sex-dependent differences have been less studied. We explored the contribution of schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) polygenic scores (PGSs) on the risk for psychotic disorders and whether sex-dependent differences exist (CIBERSAM sample: 1826 patients and 1372 controls). All PGSs were significantly associated with psychosis. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the variance explained in psychotic disorders risk was significantly higher in males than in females for all PGSs. Our results confirm the shared genetic architecture across psychotic disorders and demonstrate sex-dependent differences in the vulnerability to psychotic disorders.

A Western Dietary Pattern during Pregnancy is Associated with Neurodevelopmental Disorders in Childhood and Adolescence

Despite the high prevalence of neurodevelopmental disorders, there is a notable gap in clinical studies exploring the impact of maternal diet during pregnancy on child neurodevelopment. This observational clinical study examined the association between pregnancy dietary patterns and neurodevelopmental disorders, as well as their symptoms, in a prospective cohort of 10-year-old children (n=508). Data-driven dietary patterns were derived from self-reported food frequency questionnaires. A Western dietary pattern in pregnancy (per SD change) was significantly associated with attention-deficit / hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (OR 1.66 [1.21 - 2.27], p=0.002) and autism diagnosis (OR 2.22 [1.33 - 3.74], p=0.002) and associated symptoms (p<0.001). Findings for ADHD were validated in three large (n=59725, n=656, n=348), independent mother-child cohorts. Objective blood metabolome modelling at 24 weeks gestation identified 15 causally mediating metabolites which significantly improved ADHD prediction in external validation. Temporal analyses across five blood metabolome timepoints in two independent mother-child cohorts revealed that the association of Western dietary pattern metabolite scores with neurodevelopmental outcomes was consistently significant in early to mid-pregnancy, independent of later child timepoints. These findings underscore the importance of early intervention and provide robust evidence for targeted prenatal dietary interventions to prevent neurodevelopmental disorders in children.

Genome-wide association studies of lifetime and frequency cannabis use in 131,895 individuals

Cannabis is one of the most widely used drugs globally. Decriminalization of cannabis is further increasing cannabis consumption. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of lifetime (N=131,895) and frequency (N=73,374) of cannabis use. Lifetime cannabis use GWAS identified two loci, one near CADM2 (rs11922956, p=2.40E-11) and another near GRM3 (rs12673181, p=6.90E-09). Frequency of use GWAS identified one locus near CADM2 (rs4856591, p=8.10E-09; r2 =0.76 with rs11922956). Both traits were heritable and genetically correlated with previous GWASs of lifetime use and cannabis use disorder (CUD), as well as other substance use and cognitive traits. Polygenic scores (PGSs) for lifetime and frequency of cannabis use associated cannabis use phenotypes in AllofUs participants. Phenome-wide association study of lifetime cannabis use PGS in a hospital cohort replicated associations with substance use and mood disorders, and uncovered associations with celiac and infectious diseases. This work demonstrates the value of GWASs of CUD transition risk factors.

Developing an optimal stratification model for colorectal cancer screening and reducing racial disparities in multi-center population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Early detection of colorectal neoplasms can reduce the colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by timely intervention for high-risk individuals. However, effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized CRC early screening in East Asian (EAS) population. We aimed to develop, validate, and optimize a comprehensive risk prediction model across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence in EAS population.

METHODS

To develop precision risk-stratification and intervention strategies, we developed three trans-ancestry PRSs targeting colorectal neoplasms: (1) using 148 previously identified CRC risk loci (PRS148); (2) SNPs selection from large-scale meta-analysis data by clumping and thresholding (PRS183); (3) PRS-CSx, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction (PRSGenomewide). Then, the performance of each PRS was assessed and validated in two independent cross-sectional screening sets, including 4600 patients with advanced colorectal neoplasm, 4495 patients with non-advanced adenoma, and 21,199 normal individuals from the ZJCRC (Zhejiang colorectal cancer set; EAS) and PLCO (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; European, EUR) studies. The optimal PRS was further incorporated with lifestyle factors to stratify individual risk and ultimately tested in the PLCO and UK Biobank prospective cohorts, totaling 350,013 participants.

RESULTS

Three trans-ancestry PRSs achieved moderately improved predictive performance in EAS compared to EUR populations. Remarkably, the PRSs effectively facilitated a thorough risk assessment across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Among these models, PRS183 demonstrated the optimal discriminatory ability in both EAS and EUR validation datasets, particularly for individuals at risk of colorectal neoplasms. Using two large-scale and independent prospective cohorts, we further confirmed a significant dose-response effect of PRS183 on incident colorectal neoplasms. Incorporating PRS183 with lifestyle factors into a comprehensive strategy improves risk stratification and discriminatory accuracy compared to using PRS or lifestyle factors separately. This comprehensive risk-stratified model shows potential in addressing missed diagnoses in screening tests (best NPV = 0.93), while moderately reducing unnecessary screening (best PPV = 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive risk-stratified model in population-based CRC screening trials represents a promising advancement in personalized risk assessment, facilitating tailored CRC screening in the EAS population. This approach enhances the transferability of PRSs across ancestries and thereby helps address health disparity.

Sex differences in the associations of socioeconomic factors and cognitive performance with family history of Alzheimer's disease

INTRODUCTION

While higher socioeconomic factors (SEF) and cognitive performance (CP) have been associated with reduced Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk, recent evidence highlighted that these factors may have opposite effects on family history of AD (FHAD).

METHODS

Leveraging data from the UK Biobank (N=448,100) and the All of Us Research Program (N=240,319), we applied generalized linear regression models, polygenic risk scoring (PRS), and one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to test the sex-specific SEF and CP associations with AD and FHAD.

RESULTS

Observational and genetically informed analyses highlighted that higher SEF and CP were associated with reduced AD and sibling-FHAD, while these factors were associated with increased parent-FHAD. We also observed that population minorities may present different patterns with respect to sibling-FHAD vs. parent-FHAD. Sex differences in FHAD associations were identified in ancestry-specific and SEF PRS and MR results.

DISCUSSION

This study contributes to understanding the sex-specific relationships linking SEF and CP to FHAD, highlighting the potential role of reporting, recall, and surviving-related dynamics.

Decoding depression by exploring the exposome-genome edge amidst COVID-19 lockdown

Risk of depression increased in the general population after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. By examining the interplay between genetics and individual environmental exposures during the COVID-19 lockdown, we have been able to gain an insight as to why some individuals are more vulnerable to depression, while others are more resilient. This study, conducted on a Spanish cohort of 9218 individuals (COVICAT), includes a comprehensive non-genetic risk analysis, the exposome, complemented by a genomics analysis in a subset of 2442 participants. Depression levels were evaluated using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Together with Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS), we introduced a novel score; Poly-Environmental Risk Scores (PERS) for non-genetic risks to estimate the effect of each cumulative score and gene-environment interaction. We found significant positive associations for PERSSoc (Social and Household), PERSLife (Lifestyle and Behaviour), and PERSEnv (Wider Environment and Health) scores across all levels of depression severity, and for PRSB (Broad depression) only for moderate depression (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.03-1.40). On average OR increased 1.2-fold for PERSEnv and 1.6-fold for PERLife and PERSoc from mild to severe depression level. The complete adjusted model explained 16.9% of the variance. We further observed an interaction between PERSEnv and PRSB showing a potential mitigating effect. In summary, stressors within the social and behavioral domains emerged as the primary drivers of depression risk in this population, unveiling a mitigating interaction effect that should be interpreted with caution.

Genome-wide association studies of coffee intake in UK/US participants of European ancestry uncover cohort-specific genetic associations

Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of coffee intake in US-based 23andMe participants (N = 130,153) and identified 7 significant loci, with many replicating in three multi-ancestral cohorts. We examined genetic correlations and performed a phenome-wide association study across hundreds of biomarkers, health, and lifestyle traits, then compared our results to the largest available GWAS of coffee intake from the UK Biobank (UKB; N = 334,659). We observed consistent positive genetic correlations with substance use and obesity in both cohorts. Other genetic correlations were discrepant, including positive genetic correlations between coffee intake and psychiatric illnesses, pain, and gastrointestinal traits in 23andMe that were absent or negative in the UKB, and genetic correlations with cognition that were negative in 23andMe but positive in the UKB. Phenome-wide association study using polygenic scores of coffee intake derived from 23andMe or UKB summary statistics also revealed consistent associations with increased odds of obesity- and red blood cell-related traits, but all other associations were cohort-specific. Our study shows that the genetics of coffee intake associate with substance use and obesity across cohorts, but also that GWAS performed in different populations could capture cultural differences in the relationship between behavior and genetics.

Using lifestyle information in polygenic modeling of blood pressure traits: a simple method to reduce bias

Complex traits are determined by the effects of multiple genetic variants, multiple environmental factors, and potentially their interaction. Predicting complex trait phenotypes from genotypes is a fundamental task in quantitative genetics that was pioneered in agricultural breeding for selection purposes. However, it has recently become important in human genetics. While prediction accuracy for some human complex traits is appreciable, this remains low for most traits. A promising way to improve prediction accuracy is by including not only genetic information but also environmental information in prediction models. However, environmental factors can, in turn, be genetically determined. This phenomenon gives rise to a correlation between the genetic and environmental components of the phenotype, which violates the assumption of independence between the genetic and environmental components of most statistical methods for polygenic modeling. In this work, we investigated the impact of including 27 lifestyle variables as well as genotype information (and their interaction) for predicting diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure in older individuals in UK Biobank. The 27 lifestyle variables were included as either raw variables or adjusted by genetic and other non-genetic factors. The results show that including both lifestyle and genetic data improved prediction accuracy compared to using either piece of information alone. Both prediction accuracy and bias can improve substantially for some traits when the models account for the lifestyle variables after their proper adjustment. Our work confirms the utility of including environmental information in polygenic models of complex traits and highlights the importance of proper handling of the environmental variables.

Polygenic risk scores for mood and related disorders and environmental factors: Interaction effects on wellbeing in the UK biobank

Mood disorders have a genetic and environmental component and interactions (GxE) on the risk of psychiatric diseases have been investigated. The same GxE interactions may affect wellbeing measures, which go beyond categorical diagnoses and reflect the health-disease continuum. We evaluated GxE effects in the UK Biobank, considering as outcomes subjective wellbeing (feeling good and functioning well) and objective measures (education and income). We estimated the polygenic risk scores (PRSs) of major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Stressful/traumatic events during adulthood or childhood were considered as E variables, as well as social support. The addition of the PRSxE interaction to PRS and E variables was tested in linear or multinomial regression models, adjusting for confounders. We included 33 k-380 k participants, depending on the variables considered. Most PRSs and E factors showed additive effects on outcomes, with effect sizes generally 3-5 times larger for E variables than PRSs. We found some interaction effects, particularly when considering recent stress, history of a long illness/disability/infirmity, and social support. Higher PRSs increased the negative effects of stress on wellbeing, but they also increased the positive effects of social support, with interaction effects particularly for the outcomes health satisfaction, loneliness, and income (p < Bonferroni corrected threshold of 1.92e-4). PRSxE terms usually added ∼0.01-0.02% variance explained to the corresponding additive model. PRSxE effects on wellbeing involve both positive and negative E factors. Despite small variance explained at the population level, preventive/therapeutic interventions that modify E factors could be beneficial at the individual level.

Mapping and annotating genomic loci to prioritize genes and implicate distinct polygenic adaptations for skin color

Evidence for adaptation of human skin color to regional ultraviolet radiation suggests shared and distinct genetic variants across populations. However, skin color evolution and genetics in East Asians are understudied. We quantified skin color in 48,433 East Asians using image analysis and identified associated genetic variants and potential causal genes for skin color as well as their polygenic interplay with sun exposure. This genome-wide association study (GWAS) identified 12 known and 11 previously unreported loci and SNP-based heritability was 23-24%. Potential causal genes were determined through the identification of nonsynonymous variants, colocalization with gene expression in skin tissues, and expression levels in melanocytes. Genomic loci associated with pigmentation in East Asians substantially diverged from European populations, and we detected signatures of polygenic adaptation. This large GWAS for objectively quantified skin color in an East Asian population improves understanding of the genetic architecture and polygenic adaptation of skin color and prioritizes potential causal genes.

shaPRS: Leveraging shared genetic effects across traits or ancestries improves accuracy of polygenic scores

We present shaPRS, a method that leverages widespread pleiotropy between traits or shared genetic effects across ancestries, to improve the accuracy of polygenic scores. The method uses genome-wide summary statistics from two diseases or ancestries to improve the genetic effect estimate and standard error at SNPs where there is homogeneity of effect between the two datasets. When there is significant evidence of heterogeneity, the genetic effect from the disease or population closest to the target population is maintained. We show via simulation and a series of real-world examples that shaPRS substantially enhances the accuracy of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for complex diseases and greatly improves PRS performance across ancestries. shaPRS is a PRS pre-processing method that is agnostic to the actual PRS generation method, and as a result, it can be integrated into existing PRS generation pipelines and continue to be applied as more performant PRS methods are developed over time.

Oral and non-oral lichen planus show genetic heterogeneity and differential risk for autoimmune disease and oral cancer

Lichen planus (LP) is a T-cell-mediated inflammatory disease affecting squamous epithelia in many parts of the body, most often the skin and oral mucosa. Cutaneous LP is usually transient and oral LP (OLP) is most often chronic, so we performed a large-scale genetic and epidemiological study of LP to address whether the oral and non-oral subgroups have shared or distinct underlying pathologies and their overlap with autoimmune disease. Using lifelong records covering diagnoses, procedures, and clinic identity from 473,580 individuals in the FinnGen study, genome-wide association analyses were conducted on carefully constructed subcategories of OLP (n = 3,323) and non-oral LP (n = 4,356) and on the combined group. We identified 15 genome-wide significant associations in FinnGen and an additional 12 when meta-analyzed with UKBB (27 independent associations at 25 distinct genomic locations), most of which are shared between oral and non-oral LP. Many associations coincide with known autoimmune disease loci, consistent with the epidemiologic enrichment of LP with hypothyroidism and other autoimmune diseases. Notably, a third of the FinnGen associations demonstrate significant differences between OLP and non-OLP. We also observed a 13.6-fold risk for tongue cancer and an elevated risk for other oral cancers in OLP, in agreement with earlier reports that connect LP with higher cancer incidence. In addition to a large-scale dissection of LP genetics and comorbidities, our study demonstrates the use of comprehensive, multidimensional health registry data to address outstanding clinical questions and reveal underlying biological mechanisms in common but understudied diseases.

Epigenetic Age Mediates the Association of Life's Essential 8 With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Life's Essential 8 (LE8) is an enhanced metric for cardiovascular health. The interrelations among LE8, biomarkers of aging, and disease risks are unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

LE8 score was calculated for 5682 Framingham Heart Study participants. We implemented 4 DNA methylation-based epigenetic age biomarkers, with older epigenetic age hypothesized to represent faster biological aging, and examined whether these biomarkers mediated the associations between the LE8 score and cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality. We found that a 1 SD increase in the LE8 score was associated with a 35% (95% CI, 27-41; P=1.8E-15) lower risk of incident CVD, a 36% (95% CI, 24-47; P=7E-7) lower risk of CVD-specific mortality, and a 29% (95% CI, 22-35; P=7E-15) lower risk of all-cause mortality. These associations were partly mediated by epigenetic age biomarkers, particularly the GrimAge and the DunedinPACE scores. The potential mediation effects by epigenetic age biomarkers tended to be more profound in participants with higher genetic risk for older epigenetic age, compared with those with lower genetic risk. For example, in participants with higher GrimAge polygenic scores (greater than median), the mean proportion of mediation was 39%, 39%, and 78% for the association of the LE8 score with incident CVD, CVD-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality, respectively. No significant mediation was observed in participants with lower GrimAge polygenic score.

CONCLUSIONS

DNA methylation-based epigenetic age scores mediate the associations between the LE8 score and incident CVD, CVD-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality, particularly in individuals with higher genetic predisposition for older epigenetic age.

Epigenetic and proteomic signatures associate with clonal hematopoiesis expansion rate

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), whereby somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells confer a selective advantage and drive clonal expansion, not only correlates with age but also confers increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Here, we leverage genetically predicted traits to identify factors that determine CHIP clonal expansion rate. We used the passenger-approximated clonal expansion rate method to quantify the clonal expansion rate for 4,370 individuals in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) cohort and calculated polygenic risk scores for DNA methylation aging, inflammation-related measures and circulating protein levels. Clonal expansion rate was significantly associated with both genetically predicted and measured epigenetic clocks. No associations were identified with inflammation-related lab values or diseases and CHIP expansion rate overall. A proteome-wide search identified predicted circulating levels of myeloid zinc finger 1 and anti-Müllerian hormone as associated with an increased CHIP clonal expansion rate and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 and glycine N-methyltransferase as associated with decreased CHIP clonal expansion rate. Together, our findings identify epigenetic and proteomic patterns associated with the rate of hematopoietic clonal expansion.

Gene × environment effects and mediation involving adverse childhood events, mood and anxiety disorders, and substance dependence

Adverse childhood events (ACEs) contribute to the development of mood and anxiety disorders and substance dependence. However, the extent to which these effects are direct or indirect and whether genetic risk moderates them is unclear. We examined associations among ACEs, mood/anxiety disorders and substance dependence in 12,668 individuals (44.9% female, 42.5% African American/Black, 42.1% European American/white). Using latent variables for each phenotype, we modelled direct and indirect associations of ACEs with substance dependence, mediated by mood/anxiety disorders (the forward or 'self-medication' model) and of ACEs with mood/anxiety disorders, mediated by substance dependence (the reverse or 'substance-induced' model). In a subsample, we tested polygenic scores for the substance dependence and mood/anxiety disorder factors as moderators in the mediation models. Although there were significant indirect paths in both directions, mediation by mood/anxiety disorders (the forward model) was greater than that by substance dependence (the reverse model). Greater genetic risk for substance use disorders was associated with a weaker direct association between ACEs and substance dependence in both ancestry groups (reflecting gene × environment interactions) and a weaker indirect association in European-ancestry individuals (reflecting moderated mediation). We found greater evidence that substance dependence reflects self-medication of mood/anxiety disorders than that mood/anxiety disorders are substance induced. Among individuals at higher genetic risk for substance dependence, ACEs were less associated with that outcome. Following exposure to ACEs, multiple pathways appear to underlie the associations between mood/anxiety disorders and substance dependence. Specification of these pathways could inform individually targeted prevention and treatment approaches.

Optimizing clinico-genomic disease prediction across ancestries: a machine learning strategy with Pareto improvement

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of an individual's predisposition to diseases is vital for preventive medicine and early intervention. Various statistical and machine learning models have been developed for disease prediction using clinico-genomic data. However, the accuracy of clinico-genomic prediction of diseases may vary significantly across ancestry groups due to their unequal representation in clinical genomic datasets.

METHODS

We introduced a deep transfer learning approach to improve the performance of clinico-genomic prediction models for data-disadvantaged ancestry groups. We conducted machine learning experiments on multi-ancestral genomic datasets of lung cancer, prostate cancer, and Alzheimer's disease, as well as on synthetic datasets with built-in data inequality and distribution shifts across ancestry groups.

RESULTS

Deep transfer learning significantly improved disease prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations in our multi-ancestral machine learning experiments. In contrast, transfer learning based on linear frameworks did not achieve comparable improvements for these data-disadvantaged populations.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that deep transfer learning can enhance fairness in multi-ancestral machine learning by improving prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations without compromising prediction accuracy for other populations, thus providing a Pareto improvement towards equitable clinico-genomic prediction of diseases.

Menarche-a journey into womanhood: age at menarche and health-related outcomes in East Asians

STUDY QUESTION

Are there associations of age at menarche (AAM) with health-related outcomes in East Asians?

SUMMARY ANSWER

AAM is associated with osteoporosis, Type 2 diabetes (T2D), glaucoma, and uterine fibroids, as demonstrated through observational studies, polygenic risk scores, genetic correlations, and Mendelian randomization (MR), with additional findings indicating a causal effect of BMI and T2D on earlier AAM.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Puberty timing is linked to adult disease risk, but research predominantly focuses on European populations, with limited studies in other groups.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed an AAM genome-wide association study (GWAS) with 57 890 Han Taiwanese females and examined the association between AAM and 154 disease outcomes using the Taiwanese database. Additionally, we examined genetic correlations between AAM and 113 diseases and 67 phenotypes using Japanese GWAS summary statistics.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We performed AAM GWAS and gene-based GWAS studies to obtain summary statistics and identify potential AAM-related genes. We applied phenotype, polygenic risk scores, and genetic correlation analyses of AAM to explore health-related outcomes, using multivariate regression and linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses. We also explored potential bidirectional causal relationships between AAM and related outcomes through univariable and multivariable MR analyses.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Fifteen lead single-nucleotide polymorphisms and 24 distinct genes were associated with AAM in Taiwan. AAM was genetically associated with later menarche and menopause, greater height, increased osteoporosis risk, but lower BMI, and reduced risks of T2D, glaucoma, and uterine fibroids in East Asians. Bidirectional MR analyses indicated that higher BMI/T2D causally leads to earlier AAM.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our findings were specific to Han Taiwanese individuals, with genetic correlation analyses conducted in East Asians. Further research in other ethnic groups is necessary.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our study provides insights into the genetic architecture of AAM and its health-related outcomes in East Asians, highlighting causal links between BMI/T2D and earlier AAM, which may suggest potential prevention strategies for early puberty.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The work was supported by China Medical University, Taiwan (CMU110-S-17, CMU110-S-24, CMU110-MF-49, CMU111-SR-158, CMU111-MF-105, CMU111-MF-21, CMU111-S-35, CMU112-SR-30, and CMU112-MF-101), the China Medical University Hospital, Taiwan (DMR-111-062, DMR-111-153, DMR-112-042, DMR-113-038, and DMR-113-103), and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST 111-2314-B-039-063-MY3, MOST 111-2314-B-039-064-MY3, MOST 111-2410-H-039-002-MY3, and NSTC 112-2813-C-039-036-B). The funders had no influence on the data collection, analyses, or conclusions of the study. No conflict of interests to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Factor analysis of lifetime psychopathology and its brain morphometric and genetic correlates in a transdiagnostic sample

There is a lack of knowledge regarding the relationship between proneness to dimensional psychopathological syndromes and the underlying pathogenesis across major psychiatric disorders, i.e., Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), Bipolar Disorder (BD), Schizoaffective Disorder (SZA), and Schizophrenia (SZ). Lifetime psychopathology was assessed using the OPerational CRITeria (OPCRIT) system in 1,038 patients meeting DSM-IV-TR criteria for MDD, BD, SZ, or SZA. The cohort was split into two samples for exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. All patients were scanned with 3-T MRI, and data was analyzed with the CAT-12 toolbox in SPM12. Psychopathological factor scores were correlated with gray matter volume (GMV) and cortical thickness (CT). Finally, factor scores were used for exploratory genetic analyses including genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk score (PRS) association analyses. Three factors (paranoid-hallucinatory syndrome, PHS; mania, MA; depression, DEP) were identified and cross-validated. PHS was negatively correlated with four GMV clusters comprising parts of the hippocampus, amygdala, angular, middle occipital, and middle frontal gyri. PHS was also negatively associated with the bilateral superior temporal, left parietal operculum, and right angular gyrus CT. No significant brain correlates were observed for the two other psychopathological factors. We identified genome-wide significant associations for MA and DEP. PRS for MDD and SZ showed a positive effect on PHS, while PRS for BD showed a positive effect on all three factors. This study investigated the relationship of lifetime psychopathological factors and brain morphometric and genetic markers. Results highlight the need for dimensional approaches, overcoming the limitations of the current psychiatric nosology.

Multi-organ imaging-derived polygenic indexes for brain and body health

The UK Biobank (UKB) imaging project is a crucial resource for biomedical research, but is limited to 100,000 participants due to cost and accessibility barriers. Here we used genetic data to predict heritable imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs) for a larger cohort. We developed and evaluated 4,375 IDP genetic scores (IGS) derived from UKB brain and body images. When applied to UKB participants who were not imaged, IGS revealed links to numerous phenotypes and stratified participants at increased risk for both brain and somatic diseases. For example, IGS identified individuals at higher risk for Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis, offering additional insights beyond traditional polygenic risk scores of these diseases. When applied to independent external cohorts, IGS also stratified those at high disease risk in the All of Us Research Program and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study. Our results demonstrate that, while the UKB imaging cohort is largely healthy and may not be the most enriched for disease risk management, it holds immense potential for stratifying the risk of various brain and body diseases in broader external genetic cohorts.