Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Antarctic krill habitat suitability changes: Historical trends and future projections under climate scenarios

Antarctic krill plays a crucial role in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. However, data limitations leave a significant gap in understanding the changes in krill habitat suitability. This study integrated data from Chinese Antarctic research expeditions and KRILLBASE database, using Maxent model to assess spatiotemporal shifts in krill suitable habitat from 1991 to 2100 across the eastern and western Antarctic under SSP-RCP scenarios. The results reveal regional differences in climate and environmental impacts on krill habitats. Sea temperature and pH are dominant environmental factors affecting habitat suitability. With climate changes, the suitable habitats are shifting toward higher latitudes, and the latitudinal shift of habitats in CCAMLR Areas 48 and 58 is in the opposite direction. Under high-emission scenarios, krill habitats face severe contraction and loss, whereas low-emission scenarios suggest partial recovery by 2100. Coordinated global action to protect krill habitats is essential to address the biodiversity crisis in the Southern Ocean.

Unlocking sea turtle diving behaviour from low-temporal resolution time-depth recorders

Biologging is a rapidly advancing field providing information on previously unexplored aspects of animal ecology, including the vertical movement dimension. Understanding vertical behaviour through the use of time-depth recorders (TDRs) in marine vertebrates is critical to aid conservation and management decisions. However, using TDRs can be particularly problematic to infer animal behaviour from elusive animals, when tags are difficult to recover and collected data is satellite-relayed at lower temporal frequencies. Here, we present a novel method to process low-resolution TDR data at 5-minute intervals and infer diving behaviour from loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) during their elusive pelagic life stage spanning extended periods (> 250 days). Using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) we identify four behavioural states, associated with resting, foraging, shallow exploration, and deep exploration. Three of the four behavioural states were found to have strong seasonal patterns, corroborating with known sea-turtle biology. The results presented provide a novel way of interpreting low-resolution TDR data and provide a unique insight into sea turtle ecology.

Dispersal and habitat preference of juvenile emperor penguins-implications for conservation management

Seabirds can disperse widely when searching for prey, particularly during nonbreeding periods. Conservation measures predominately focus on protecting breeding colonies, while spatial protection at sea is often based on knowledge of the distribution of breeding adults, despite accumulating evidence that marine habitats used by immature birds sometimes differ from those of adults. Juvenile emperor penguins from Atka Bay, west Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, tracked immediately after fledging performed long migrations to the northern extents of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources subareas 48.4 and 48.6. Individuals did not remain long at their northern positions, before commencing a rapid southerly movement to within a few hundred km of the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The initial migratory movement was broadly synchronous across individuals. The southward movement and subsequent change to area-restricted searching were consistent with the MIZ representing a potentially important feeding habitat for juvenile emperor penguins. Spatio-temporal management mechanisms may be beneficial in reducing threats to these young penguins.

Large differences in the distribution of pelagic biomass as a result of sonar frequency choice

Recent efforts to understand the global distribution of pelagic fauna have primarily relied on 38 kHz sonar observations, using water-column backscatter as a proxy of biomass. However, backscatter gradients across ocean provinces are not always consistent with biomass observations from net sampling. This mismatch is particularly evident in temperate to polar transition zones due to changes in the resonance of pelagic fauna, which depends not only on the sonar frequency but also on the size of resonant organs such as fish swimbladders. Here, we investigate how sonar frequency choice changes our vision of pelagic ecosystems across latitudes. We analyse sonar observations at 38 and 18 kHz along with size distributions of swimbladdered fish species across the Indian Ocean Subantarctic Front. Our results show a shift from 38 to 18 kHz dominance towards the poles. More interestingly, backscatter differences across the Subantarctic Front are four times larger at 38 kHz compared to 18 kHz. Size distribution of fish suggests an increase of swimbladder volumes in subantarctic waters, which may explain the observed shift in frequency response. This study highlights the need to address swimbladder resonance variability across latitudes in order to correctly interpret large-scale sonar observations of pelagic fauna.

Cascading tipping points of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are key elements in the physical and biological Earth system. Human-induced climate change, and other human activities in the region, are leading to several potential interacting tipping points with major and irreversible consequences. Here, we examine eight potential physical, biological, chemical, and social Antarctic tipping points. These include ice sheets, ocean acidification, ocean circulation, species redistribution, invasive species, permafrost melting, local pollution, and the Antarctic Treaty System. We discuss the nature of each potential tipping point, its control variables, thresholds, timescales, and impacts, and focus on the potential for cumulative and cascading effects as a result of their interactions. The analysis provides substantial evidence of the need for more concerted and rapid action to limit climate change and to minimise the impacts of local human activities to avoid these cascading tipping points.

Biologging intelligent Platform (BiP): an integrated and standardized platform for sharing, visualizing, and analyzing biologging data

Sharing biologging data can facilitate collaborative research and biological conservation by providing maps showing animals' distribution and movements. It is a critical social mission to preserve not only horizontal position data, but also behavioral data such as diving depth, flight altitude, speed, and acceleration, as well as physiological data such as body temperature, along with related metadata, ensuring their preservation for future generation. Moreover, although biologging was initially developed in the field of biology, it now contributes to diverse fields such as meteorology and oceanography, leading to expanded opportunities for secondary data utilization. In light of social and academic requirements, we developed "Biologging intelligent Platform (BiP)", which adheres to internationally recognized standards for sensor data and metadata storage. As a result, BiP not only stores sensor data along with metadata but also standardizes this information to facilitate secondary data analysis, facilitating broader applications of biologging data across various disciplines. By visiting the website ( https://www.bip-earth.com ) and completing the user registration, data owners can interactively upload sensor data, input metadata associated with individual animals, devices, and deployments, standardize data formats, and choose between open and private settings for sharing data. Anyone interested in utilizing the data can access metadata and visualized route maps, irrespective of the data's open or private status. Users can freely download open datasets that are available under the CC BY 4.0 license, which permits copying, redistribution, and modification while adhering to the metadata's credit requirements. To use private datasets, users can contact the data owner to request permission. A unique feature of BiP is the Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) tools that calculate environmental parameters, such as surface currents, ocean winds, and waves from data collected by animals. Algorithms published in some previous studies are integrated into the OLAP which can estimate the environmental and behavioral parameters. To enhance data accessibility, BiP allows users to search for datasets using the DOI of the paper in which the data was used. We believe that linking with other databases for data exchange and multi-repository storage could enhance the sustainability of the data itself.

Long-distance winter migrations of chinstrap penguins and elephant seals to a persistent bloom at the edge of the Ross Gyre

Assessing the biological characteristics of high-latitude winter habitats of migratory marine predators is necessary for conservation and management in Antarctica. Tracking data from chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), key Antarctic predators with different diets and foraging habits, indicate that some individuals undertake long-distance winter migrations to remote regions south of 55°S and west of 120°W. There, localized hotspots of increased use, with general reductions in mean swimming speed are evident. Presumably, these predators migrate to areas with higher productivity, however the marine productivity in this remote region during winter is unknown. Light limitation during winter precludes the use of optical satellite data to characterize marine productivity here, but biogeochemical-Argo floats can provide year-round chlorophyll data. These data inform the Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate (B-SOSE), which provides year-round estimates of marine productivity. The predator hotspots overlap with two areas with year-round elevated surface chlorophyll levels predicted by B-SOSE, consistent with previous studies indicating enhanced mixing in those areas. Our results suggest that persistent areas of elevated chlorophyll centered near 160°W and 120°W near the boundaries of the Ross Gyre and the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current support a productive food web capable of supporting the diverse foraging niches of pelagic species during winter.

Integrating animal tracking and trait data to facilitate global ecological discoveries

Understanding animal movement is at the core of ecology, evolution and conservation science. Big data approaches for animal tracking have facilitated impactful synthesis research on spatial biology and behavior in ecologically important and human-impacted regions. Similarly, databases of animal traits (e.g. body size, limb length, locomotion method, lifespan) have been used for a wide range of comparative questions, with emerging data being shared at the level of individuals and populations. Here, we argue that the proliferation of both types of publicly available data creates exciting opportunities to unlock new avenues of research, such as spatial planning and ecological forecasting. We assessed the feasibility of combining animal tracking and trait databases to develop and test hypotheses across geographic, temporal and biological allometric scales. We identified multiple research questions addressing performance and distribution constraints that could be answered by integrating trait and tracking data. For example, how do physiological (e.g. metabolic rates) and biomechanical traits (e.g. limb length, locomotion form) influence migration distances? We illustrate the potential of our framework with three case studies that effectively integrate trait and tracking data for comparative research. An important challenge ahead is the lack of taxonomic and spatial overlap in trait and tracking databases. We identify critical next steps for future integration of tracking and trait databases, with the most impactful being open and interlinked individual-level data. Coordinated efforts to combine trait and tracking databases will accelerate global ecological and evolutionary insights and inform conservation and management decisions in our changing world.

Scaling up ocean conservation through recognition of key biodiversity areas in the Southern Ocean from multispecies tracking data

Biodiversity is critical for maintaining ecosystem function but is threatened by increasing anthropogenic pressures. In the Southern Ocean, a highly biologically productive region containing many endemic species, proactive management is urgently needed to mitigate increasing pressures from fishing, climate change, and tourism. Site-based conservation is one important tool for managing the negative impacts of human activities on ecosystems. The Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) Standard is a standardized framework used to define sites vital for the persistence of global biodiversity based on criteria and quantitative thresholds. We used tracking data from 14 species of Antarctic and subantarctic seabirds and pinnipeds from the publicly available Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) data set to define KBAs for a diverse suite of marine predators. We used track2kba, an R package that supports identification of KBAs from telemetry data through identification of highly used habitat areas and estimates of local abundance within sites. We compared abundance estimates at each site with thresholds for KBA criteria A1, B1, and D1 (related to globally threatened species, individual geographically restricted species, and demographic aggregations, respectively). We identified 30 potential KBAs for 13 species distributed throughout the Southern Ocean that were vital for each individual species, population, and life-history stage for which they were determined. These areas were identified as highly used by these populations based on observational data and complement the ongoing habitat modeling and bioregionalization work that has been used to prioritize conservation areas in this region. Although further work is needed to identify potential KBAs based on additional current and future data sets, we highlight the benefits of utilizing KBAs as part of a holistic approach to marine conservation, given their significant value as a global conservation tool.

Establishing bio-logging data collections as dynamic archives of animal life on Earth

Rapid growth in bio-logging-the use of animal-borne electronic tags to document the movements, behaviour, physiology and environments of wildlife-offers opportunities to mitigate biodiversity threats and expand digital natural history archives. Here we present a vision to achieve such benefits by accounting for the heterogeneity inherent to bio-logging data and the concerns of those who collect and use them. First, we can enable data integration through standard vocabularies, transfer protocols and aggregation protocols, and drive their wide adoption. Second, we need to develop integrated data collections on standardized data platforms that support data preservation through public archiving and strategies that ensure long-term access. We outline pathways to reach these goals, highlighting the need for resources to govern community data standards and guide data mobilization efforts. We propose the launch of a community-led coordinating body and provide recommendations for how stakeholders-including government data centres, museums and those who fund, permit and publish bio-logging work-can support these efforts.

Tracking individual animals can reveal the mechanisms of species loss

As biodiversity loss continues, targeted conservation interventions are increasingly necessary. Stemming species loss requires mechanistic understanding of the processes governing population dynamics. However, this information is unavailable for most animals because it requires data that are difficult to collect using traditional methods. Advances in animal tracking technology have generated an avalanche of high-resolution observations for a growing list of species around the globe. To date, most research using these data has focused on questions about animal behavior, with less emphasis on population processes. Here, we argue that tracking data are uniquely poised to bring powerful new insights to the urgent, global problem of halting species extinctions by revealing when, where, how, and why populations are changing.

Maximizing biological insights from instruments attached to animals

Instruments attached to animals ('biologgers') have facilitated extensive discoveries about the patterns, causes, and consequences of animal behavior. Here, we present examples of how biologging can deepen our fundamental understanding of ecosystems and our applied understanding of global change impacts by enabling tests of ecological theory. Applying the iterative process of science to biologging has enabled a diverse set of insights, including social and experiential learning in long-distance migrants, state-dependent risk aversion in foraging predators, and resource abundance driving movement across taxa. Now, biologging is poised to tackle questions and refine ecological theories at increasing levels of complexity by integrating measurements from numerous individuals, merging datasets from multiple species and their environments, and spanning disciplines, including physiology, behavior and demography.

Two decades of three-dimensional movement data from adult female northern elephant seals

Northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) have been integral to the development and progress of biologging technology and movement data analysis, which continue to improve our understanding of this and other species. Adult female elephant seals at Año Nuevo Reserve and other colonies along the west coast of North America were tracked annually from 2004 to 2020, resulting in a total of 653 instrument deployments. This paper outlines the compilation and curation process of these high-resolution diving and location data, now accessible in two Dryad repositories. The code used for data processing alongside the corresponding workflow is available through GitHub and Zenodo. This data set represents 3,844,927 dives and 596,815 locations collected from 475 individual seals with 178 repeat samplings over 17 years. We anticipate that these data will stimulate further analysis and investigation into elephant seal biology and aid in developing new analytical approaches for large marine predators.

Population changes in a Southern Ocean krill predator point towards regional Antarctic sea ice declines

While foraging, marine predators integrate information about the environment often across wide-ranging oceanic foraging grounds and reflect these in population parameters. One such species, the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; SRW) has shown alterations to foraging behaviour, declines in body condition, and reduced reproductive rates after 2009 in the South African population. As capital breeders, these changes suggest decreased availability of their main prey at high-latitudes, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). This study analysed environmental factors affecting prey availability for this population over the past 40 years, finding a notable southward contraction in sea ice, a 15-30% decline in sea ice concentration, and a more than two-fold increase in primary production metrics after 2008. These environmental conditions are less supportive of Antarctic krill recruitment in known SRW foraging grounds. Additionally, marginal ice zone, sea ice concentration and two primary production metrics were determined to be either regionally significant or marginally significant predictors of calving interval length when analysed using a linear model. Findings highlight the vulnerability of recovering baleen whale populations to climate change and show how capital breeders serve as sentinels of ecosystem changes in regions that are difficult or costly to study.

Effectiveness of marine protected areas in safeguarding important migratory megafauna habitat

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly used management tool to safeguard marine life from anthropogenic impacts, yet their efficacy often remains untested. Evaluating how highly dynamic marine species use static MPAs is challenging but becoming more feasible with the advancement of telemetry data. Here, we focus on southern right whales (Eubalaena australis, SRWs) in the waters off Aotearoa/New Zealand, which declined from 30,000 whales to fewer than 40 mature females due to whaling. Now numbering in the low thousands, the key socializing and nursery areas for this population in the remote subantarctic islands are under the protection of different types of MPAs. However, the effectiveness of these MPAs in encompassing important whale habitat and protecting the whales from vessel traffic has not been investigated. To address this, we analyzed telemetry data from 29 SRWs tagged at the Auckland Islands between 2009 and 2022. We identified two previously unknown and currently unprotected areas that were used by the whales for important behaviors such as foraging, socializing, or resting. Additionally, by combining whale locations and vessel tracking data (2020-2022) during peak breeding period (June to October), we found high spatiotemporal overlap between whales and vessels within several MPAs, suggesting the whales could still be vulnerable to multiple anthropogenic stressors even when within areas designated for protection. Our results identify areas to be prioritized for future monitoring and investigation to support the ongoing recovery of this SRW population, as well as highlight the overarching importance of assessing MPA effectiveness post-implementation, especially in a changing climate.

A quantitative assessment of continuous versus structured methods for the detection of marine mammals and seabirds via opportunistic shipboard surveys

Marine monitoring efforts are increasingly supported by opportunistic shipboard surveys. However, opportunistic survey methods often require adaptation to suit the vessel and the operations being conducted onboard. Whilst best-practice techniques for surveying marine wildlife on vessels of opportunity are yet to be established, testing and development of alternative methods can provide means for capturing ecological information in otherwise under-surveyed areas. Explicitly, survey methods can be improved while baseline ecological data for new regions are gathered simultaneously. Herein, we tested different survey approaches on a vessel of opportunity in a remote offshore area where little is known about the community composition of top-order marine vertebrate predators: western and south-western Tasmania, Australia. We found that continuous surveys provide greater species counts than structured "snapshot" surveys over the course of a voyage, but that structured surveys can be more practical when managing factors such as observer fatigue. Moreover, we provide a baseline dataset on the marine vertebrate community encountered in western and south-western Tasmania. This information will be critically important for industry and conservation management objectives, and is key to our understanding of the offshore ecosystem around Tasmania.

Fish and tips: Historical and projected changes in commercial fish species' habitat suitability in the Southern Hemisphere

Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.

A method to estimate prey density from single-camera images: A case study with chinstrap penguins and Antarctic krill

Estimating the densities of marine prey observed in animal-borne video loggers when encountered by foraging predators represents an important challenge for understanding predator-prey interactions in the marine environment. We used video images collected during the foraging trip of one chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) from Cape Shirreff, Livingston Island, Antarctica to develop a novel approach for estimating the density of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) encountered during foraging activities. Using the open-source Video and Image Analytics for a Marine Environment (VIAME), we trained a neural network model to identify video frames containing krill. Our image classifier has an overall accuracy of 73%, with a positive predictive value of 83% for prediction of frames containing krill. We then developed a method to estimate the volume of water imaged, thus the density (N·m-3) of krill, in the 2-dimensional images. The method is based on the maximum range from the camera where krill remain visibly resolvable and assumes that mean krill length is known, and that the distribution of orientation angles of krill is uniform. From 1,932 images identified as containing krill, we manually identified a subset of 124 images from across the video record that contained resolvable and unresolvable krill necessary to estimate the resolvable range and imaged volume for the video sensor. Krill swarm density encountered by the penguins ranged from 2 to 307 krill·m-3 and mean density of krill was 48 krill·m-3 (sd = 61 krill·m-3). Mean krill biomass density was 25 g·m-3. Our frame-level image classifier model and krill density estimation method provide a new approach to efficiently process video-logger data and estimate krill density from 2D imagery, providing key information on prey aggregations that may affect predator foraging performance. The approach should be directly applicable to other marine predators feeding on aggregations of prey.

Blubber gene expression and cortisol concentrations reveal changing physiological stress in a Southern ocean sentinel species

The health of migratory eastern Australian humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) can reflect the condition of their remote polar foraging environments. This study used gene expression (LEP, LEPR, ADIQ, AhR, TNF-α, HSP-70), blubber hormone concentrations (cortisol, testosterone), and photogrammetric body condition to assess this sentinel species during a period of unprecedented changes to anthropogenic activity and natural processes. The results revealed higher cortisol concentrations in 2020 compared to 2021, suggesting a decline in physiological stress between years. Additionally, metabolic transcripts LEPR, and AhR, which is also linked to xenobiotic metabolism, were upregulated during the 2020 southbound migration. These differences suggest that one or more environmental stressors were reduced between 2020 and 2021, with upregulated AhR possibly indicating a Southern Ocean pollutant declined between the years. This research confirms a Southern Ocean-wide decrease in whale stress during the study period and informs efforts to identify key stressors on Antarctic marine ecosystems.

Taking climate-smart governance to the high seas

Comprehensive spatial planning in international waters is key to achieving ocean sustainability.

Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Whole genome sequencing reveals stepping-stone dispersal buffered against founder effects in a range expanding seabird

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to climate-driven environmental changes, particularly in high-latitude regions. However, the patterns of dispersal and colonization during range shifting events are not always clear. Understanding how populations are connected through space and time can reveal how species navigate a changing environment. Here, we present a fine-scale population genomics study of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua), a presumed site-faithful colonial nesting species that has increased in population size and expanded its range south along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Using whole genome sequencing, we analysed 129 gentoo penguin individuals across 12 colonies located at or near the southern range edge. Through a detailed examination of fine-scale population structure, admixture, and population divergence, we inferred that gentoo penguins historically dispersed rapidly in a stepping-stone pattern from the South Shetland Islands leading to the colonization of Anvers Island, and then the adjacent mainland Western Antarctica Peninsula. Recent southward expansion along the Western Antarctic Peninsula also followed a stepping-stone dispersal pattern coupled with limited post-divergence gene flow from colonies on Anvers Island. Genetic diversity appeared to be maintained across colonies during the historical dispersal process, and range-edge populations are still growing. This suggests large numbers of migrants may provide a buffer against founder effects at the beginning of colonization events to maintain genetic diversity similar to that of the source populations before migration ceases post-divergence. These results coupled with a continued increase in effective population size since approximately 500-800 years ago distinguish gentoo penguins as a robust species that is highly adaptable and resilient to changing climate.

Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of conservation areas for marine living resources under climate change scenarios

Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006-2055) and long-term (2050-2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.

Tracking seabird migration in the tropical Indian Ocean reveals basin-scale conservation need

Understanding marine predator distributions is an essential component of arresting their catastrophic declines.1,2,3,4 In temperate, polar, and upwelling seas, predictable oceanographic features can aggregate migratory predators, which benefit from site-based protection.5,6,7,8 In more oligotrophic tropical waters, however, it is unclear whether environmental conditions create similar multi-species hotspots. We track the non-breeding movements and habitat preferences of a tropical seabird assemblage (n = 348 individuals, 9 species, and 10 colonies in the western Indian Ocean), which supports globally important biodiversity.9,10,11,12 We mapped species richness from tracked populations and then predicted the same diversity measure for all known Indian Ocean colonies. Most species had large non-breeding ranges, low or variable residency patterns, and specific habitat preferences. This in turn revealed that maximum species richness covered >3.9 million km2, with no focused aggregations, in stark contrast to large-scale tracking studies in all other ocean basins.5,6,7,13,14 High species richness was captured by existing marine protected areas (MPAs) in the region; however, most occurred in the unprotected high seas beyond national jurisdictions. Seabirds experience cumulative anthropogenic impacts13 and high mortality15,16 during non-breeding. Therefore, our results suggest that seabird conservation in the tropical Indian Ocean requires an ocean-wide perspective, including high seas legislation.17 As restoration actions improve the outlook for tropical seabirds on land18,19,20,21,22 and environmental change reshapes the habitats that support them at sea,15,16 appropriate marine conservation will be crucial for their long-term recovery and whole ecosystem restoration.

Beneath the Antarctic sea-ice: Fine-scale analysis of Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) behavior and predator-prey interactions, using micro-sonar data in Terre Adélie

Lactation is the most energy-demanding event in mammals' reproduction. In pinnipeds, females are the only food providers to the young and have developed numerous behavioral and physiological lactation strategies, from capital-breeding to income-breeding. Lactating females' fine-scale foraging strategy, and precise understanding of how females supplement their pup's needs as well as their own are important to understand the species' ecology and energetic balance. Polar pinnipeds, inhabiting extreme environments, are sensitive to climate change and variability, understanding their constraints and foraging strategy during lactation is therefore important. In 2019, three sonar tags were deployed on lactating Weddell seals in Terre Adélie (East Antarctica) for 7 days, to study fine-scale predator-prey interactions. Feeding activity was mostly benthic, reduced, central-placed, and spatially limited. Females spent most of their time hauled-out. A total of 331 prey capture attempts (PrCAs) were recorded using triaxial acceleration data, with 125 prey identified on echograms (5 cm, acoustic size). All PrCAs occurred on the seafloor, shallower than usual records (mean depth of 88 m, vs 280 m after their molt). We also found that they only fed in three of the five identified dive shapes, during the ascent or throughout the dive. Half of the prey were reactive to the seal's approach, either leaving the seafloor, or escaping just above the seafloor, suggesting that the seals hunt by chasing them from the seabed. Seals continuously scanned the area during the approach phase, evoking opportunistic foraging. Our results provide additional evidence that Weddell seal forage during lactation, displaying a mix of capital-breeding and income-breeding strategies during this period of physiological stress. This work sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of their foraging behavior, such as shallow water environments, targeting benthic prey, generally focusing on single prey rather than schools, and evidence of visual scanning through observed head movements.

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of shape variation in the albatross compound bill

Albatross are the largest seabirds on Earth and have a suite of adaptations for their pelagic lifestyle. Rather than having a bill made of a single piece of keratin, Procellariiformes have a compound rhamphotheca, made of several joined plates. Drivers of the shape of the albatross bill have not been explored. Here we use three-dimensional scans of 61 upper bills from 12 species of albatross to understand whether intrinsic (species assignment & size) or extrinsic (diet) factors predict bill shape. Diet is a significant predictor of bill shape with coarse dietary categories providing higher R2 values than dietary proportion data. We also find that of the intrinsic factors, species assignment accounts for ten times more of the variation than size (72% versus 6.8%) and that there is a common allometric vector of shape change between all species. When considering species averages in a phylogenetic framework, there are significant Blomberg's K results for both shape and size (K = 0.29 & 1.10) with the first axis of variation having a much higher K value (K = 1.9), reflecting the split in shape at the root of the tree. The influence of size on bill shape is limited, with species assignment and diet predicting far more of the variation. The results show that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors are needed to understand morphological evolution.

Siting MPAs for multiple protecting purposes by co-consideration of ecological importance and anthropogenic impacts

The global marine ecosystem has been significantly altered by the combined effects of multiple anthropogenic impacts. Systematic planning of marine protected areas (MPAs) is of paramount importance in alleviating conflicts between humans and the sea. Existing approaches, however, merely integrate both ecological and anthropogenic factors for multiple conservation purposes. By combining the three main anthropogenic impact factors with two main ecological importance factors, this study used a GIS-based AHP-OWA method to identify different levels of priority protection for MPAs in Zhejiang, China. Our results proved that: 1) the multi-objective MPA siting issues can be addressed by the GIS-based AHP-OWA method through scenario simulation; 2) the best locations for MPAs are in the northeast, central, and southern marine areas of Zhejiang; 3) considering the trade-off degree, spatial conservation efficiency, and spatial heterogeneity, an optimized MPA siting scheme can be developed for decision-makers. The proposed MPA siting method and case study may provide an effective technical reference for solving regional marine spatial planning (MSP) issues in the future.

Physiological tipping points in the relationship between foraging success and lifetime fitness of a long-lived mammal

Although anthropogenic change is often gradual, the impacts on animal populations may be precipitous if physiological processes create tipping points between energy gain, reproduction or survival. We use 25 years of behavioural, diet and demographic data from elephant seals to characterise their relationships with lifetime fitness. Survival and reproduction increased with mass gain during long foraging trips preceding the pupping seasons, and there was a threshold where individuals that gained an additional 4.8% of their body mass (26 kg, from 206 to 232 kg) increased lifetime reproductive success three-fold (from 1.8 to 4.9 pups). This was due to a two-fold increase in pupping probability (30% to 76%) and a 7% increase in reproductive lifespan (6.0 to 6.4 years). The sharp threshold between mass gain and reproduction may explain reproductive failure observed in many species and demonstrates how small, gradual reductions in prey from anthropogenic disturbance could have profound implications for animal populations.

Biologging and Biotelemetry: Tools for Understanding the Lives and Environments of Marine Animals

Addressing important questions in animal ecology, physiology, and environmental science often requires in situ information from wild animals. This difficulty is being overcome by biologging and biotelemetry, or the use of miniaturized animal-borne sensors. Although early studies recorded only simple parameters of animal movement, advanced devices and analytical methods can now provide rich information on individual and group behavior, internal states, and the surrounding environment of free-ranging animals, especially those in marine systems. We summarize the history of technologies used to track marine animals. We then identify seven major research categories of marine biologging and biotelemetry and explain significant achievements, as well as future opportunities. Big data approaches via international collaborations will be key to tackling global environmental issues (e.g., climate change impacts), and curiosity about the secret lives of marine animals will also remain a major driver of biologging and biotelemetry studies.

Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.

The role of individual variability on the predictive performance of machine learning applied to large bio-logging datasets

Animal-borne tagging (bio-logging) generates large and complex datasets. In particular, accelerometer tags, which provide information on behaviour and energy expenditure of wild animals, produce high-resolution multi-dimensional data, and can be challenging to analyse. We tested the performance of commonly used artificial intelligence tools on datasets of increasing volume and dimensionality. By collecting bio-logging data across several sampling seasons, datasets are inherently characterized by inter-individual variability. Such information should be considered when predicting behaviour. We integrated both unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches to predict behaviours in two penguin species. The classified behaviours obtained from the unsupervised approach Expectation Maximisation were used to train the supervised approach Random Forest. We assessed agreement between the approaches, the performance of Random Forest on unknown data and the implications for the calculation of energy expenditure. Consideration of behavioural variability resulted in high agreement (> 80%) in behavioural classifications and minimal differences in energy expenditure estimates. However, some outliers with < 70% of agreement, highlighted how behaviours characterized by signal similarity are confused. We advise the broad bio-logging community, approaching these large datasets, to be cautious when upscaling predictions, as this might lead to less accurate estimates of behaviour and energy expenditure.

Recovery of carbon benefits by overharvested baleen whale populations is threatened by climate change

Despite the importance of marine megafauna on ecosystem functioning, their contribution to the oceanic carbon cycle is still poorly known. Here, we explored the role of baleen whales in the biological carbon pump across the southern hemisphere based on the historical and forecasted abundance of five baleen whale species. We modelled whale-mediated carbon sequestration through the sinking of their carcasses after natural death. We provide the first temporal dynamics of this carbon pump from 1890 to 2100, considering both the effects of exploitation and climate change on whale populations. We reveal that at their pre-exploitation abundance, the five species of southern whales could sequester 4.0 × 105 tonnes of carbon per year (tC yr-1). This estimate dropped to 0.6 × 105 tC yr-1 by 1972 following commercial whaling. However, with the projected restoration of whale populations under a RCP8.5 climate scenario, the sequestration would reach 1.7 × 105 tC yr-1 by 2100, while without climate change, recovered whale populations could sequester nearly twice as much (3.2 × 105 tC yr-1) by 2100. This highlights the persistence of whaling damages on whale populations and associated services as well as the predicted harmful impacts of climate change on whale ecosystem services.

New Zealand southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; Tohorā nō Aotearoa) behavioural phenology, demographic composition, and habitat use in Port Ross, Auckland Islands over three decades: 1998–2021

Changes in habitat availability and prey abundance are predicted to adversely influence survival and reproduction of wildlife in the Southern Ocean. Some populations of southern right whale (SRW; Eubalaena australis) are showing dramatic changes in habitat use. Surveys were undertaken in the austral winters of 2020 and 2021 at the key nursery and socialising ground for New Zealand SRWs: Port Ross, Auckland Islands, with 548 encounters and 599 skin biopsy samples collected. Data from these two surveys spanned peak periods of use and were used to test the hypothesis there have been shifts in the phenology, demographic composition and behaviour of SRWs using the Auckland Islands over the past three decades. The behavioural phenology and demographic composition of SRW resembles that observed in the 1990s. In contrast, the proportion of groups containing cow-calf pairs increased from 20% in the 1998 survey to 50% in 2020/21. These changes are consistent with a growing population undergoing strong recruitment, not limited by food resources. Continued use of Port Ross by all SRW demographic classes confirms this as key habitat for SRW in New Zealand waters, and we support increased enforcement of existing management measures to reduce whale-vessel interactions in this remote subantarctic archipelago.

A review of the scientific knowledge of the seascape off Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Despite the exclusion of the Southern Ocean from assessments of progress towards achieving the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Strategic Plan, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) has taken on the mantle of progressing efforts to achieve it. Within the CBD, Aichi Target 11 represents an agreed commitment to protect 10% of the global coastal and marine environment. Adopting an ethos of presenting the best available scientific evidence to support policy makers, CCAMLR has progressed this by designating two Marine Protected Areas in the Southern Ocean, with three others under consideration. The region of Antarctica known as Dronning Maud Land (DML; 20°W to 40°E) and the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean that abuts it conveniently spans one region under consideration for spatial protection. To facilitate both an open and transparent process to provide the vest available scientific evidence for policy makers to formulate management options, we review the body of physical, geochemical and biological knowledge of the marine environment of this region. The level of scientific knowledge throughout the seascape abutting DML is polarized, with a clear lack of data in its eastern part which is presumably related to differing levels of research effort dedicated by national Antarctic programmes in the region. The lack of basic data on fundamental aspects of the physical, geological and biological nature of eastern DML make predictions of future trends difficult to impossible, with implications for the provision of management advice including spatial management. Finally, by highlighting key knowledge gaps across the scientific disciplines our review also serves to provide guidance to future research across this important region.

Biologging of emperor penguins-Attachment techniques and associated deployment performance

An increasing number of marine animals are equipped with biologgers, to study their physiology, behaviour and ecology, often for conservation purposes. To minimise the impacts of biologgers on the animals’ welfare, the Refinement principle from the Three Rs framework (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) urges to continuously test and evaluate new and updated biologging protocols. Here, we propose alternative and promising techniques for emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) capture and on-site logger deployment that aim to mitigate the potential negative impacts of logger deployment on these birds. We equipped adult emperor penguins for short-term (GPS, Time-Depth Recorder (TDR)) and long-term (i.e. planned for one year) deployments (ARGOS platforms, TDR), as well as juvenile emperor penguins for long-term deployments (ARGOS platforms) in the Weddell Sea area where they had not yet been studied. We describe and qualitatively evaluate our protocols for the attachment of biologgers on-site at the colony, the capture of the animals and the recovery of the devices after deployment. We report unprecedented recaptures of long-term equipped adult emperor penguins (50% of equipped individuals recaptured after 290 days). Our data demonstrate that the traditional technique of long-term attachment by gluing the biologgers directly to the back feathers causes excessive feather breakage and the loss of the devices after a few months. We therefore propose an alternative method of attachment for back-mounted devices. This technique led to successful year-round deployments on 37.5% of the equipped juveniles. Finally, we also disclose the first deployments of leg-bracelet mounted TDRs on emperor penguins. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring potential impacts of biologger deployments on the animals and the need to continue to improve methods to minimize disturbance and enhance performance and results.

Juvenile emperor penguin range calls for extended conservation measures in the Southern Ocean

To protect the unique and rich biodiversity of the Southern Ocean, conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented. Currently, the establishment of several additional protection zones is being considered based on the known habitat distributions of key species of the ecosystems including emperor penguins and other marine top predators. However, the distribution of such species at sea is often insufficiently sampled. Specifically, current distribution models focus on the habitat range of adult animals and neglect that immatures and juveniles can inhabit different areas. By tracking eight juvenile emperor penguins in the Weddell Sea over 1 year and performing a meta-analysis including previously known data from other colonies, we show that conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean are insufficient for protecting this highly mobile species, and particularly its juveniles. We find that juveniles spend approximately 90% of their time outside the boundaries of proposed and existing MPAs, and that their distribution extends beyond (greater than 1500 km) the species' extent of occurrence as defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Our data exemplify that strategic conservation plans for the emperor penguin and other long-lived ecologically important species should consider the dynamic habitat range of all age classes.

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year-long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer versus 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains versus losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.

Movements of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Davis Base, Antarctica: combining population genetics and tracking data

Marine animals such as the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) rely on a productive marine environment and are vulnerable to oceanic changes that can affect their reproduction and survival rates. Davis Base, Antarctica, acts as a moulting site for southern elephant seals that forage in Prydz Bay, but the mitochondrial haplotype diversity and natal source populations of these seals have not been characterized. In this study, we combined genetic and animal tracking data on these moulting seals to identify levels of mitochondrial haplotype diversity, natal source population, and movement behaviours during foraging and haul-out periods. Using partial sequences of the mitochondrial control region, we identified two major breeding mitochondrial lineages of seals at Davis Base. We found that the majority of the seals originated from breeding stocks within the South Atlantic Ocean and South Indian Ocean. One seal was grouped with the Macquarie Island breeding stock (South Pacific Ocean). The Macquarie Island population, unlike the other two stocks, is decreasing in size. Tracking data revealed long-distance foraging activity of the Macquarie Island seal around Crozet Islands. We speculate that changes to the Antarctic marine environment can result in a shift in foraging and movement strategies, which subsequently affects seal population growth rates.

Big-data approaches lead to an increased understanding of the ecology of animal movement

Understanding animal movement is essential to elucidate how animals interact, survive, and thrive in a changing world. Recent technological advances in data collection and management have transformed our understanding of animal "movement ecology" (the integrated study of organismal movement), creating a big-data discipline that benefits from rapid, cost-effective generation of large amounts of data on movements of animals in the wild. These high-throughput wildlife tracking systems now allow more thorough investigation of variation among individuals and species across space and time, the nature of biological interactions, and behavioral responses to the environment. Movement ecology is rapidly expanding scientific frontiers through large interdisciplinary and collaborative frameworks, providing improved opportunities for conservation and insights into the movements of wild animals, and their causes and consequences.

The role of allochrony in influencing interspecific differences in foraging distribution during the non-breeding season between two congeneric crested penguin species

Mechanisms promoting coexistence between closely related species are fundamental for maintaining species diversity. Mechanisms of niche differentiation include allochrony which offsets the peak timing of resource utilisation between species. Many studies focus on spatial and temporal niche partitioning during the breeding season, few have investigated the role allochrony plays in influencing interspecific segregation of foraging distribution and ecology between congeneric species during the non-breeding season. We investigated the non-breeding migrations of Snares (Eudyptes robustus) and Fiordland penguins (Eudyptes pachyrhynchus), closely related species breeding between 100-350 km apart whose migration phenology differs by two months. Using light geolocation tracking, we examined the degree of overlap given the observed allochrony and a hypothetical scenario where the species commence migration simultaneously. We found that Fiordland penguins migrated to the Sub-Antarctic Frontal Zone and Polar Frontal Zone in the austral autumn whereas Snares penguins disperse westwards staying north of the Sub-Tropical Front in the austral winter. Our results suggest that allochrony is likely to be at the root of segregation because the relative profitability of the different water masses that the penguins forage in changes seasonally which results in the two species utilising different areas over their core non-breeding periods. Furthermore, allochrony reduces relatively higher levels of spatiotemporal overlap during the departure and arrival periods, when the close proximity of the two species' colonies would cause the birds to congregate in similar areas, resulting in high interspecific competition just before the breeding season. Available evidence from other studies suggests that the shift in phenology between these species has arisen from adaptive radiation and phenological matching to the seasonality of local resource availability during the breeding season and reduced competitive overlap over the non-breeding season is likely to be an incidental outcome.

Sex, body size, and boldness shape the seasonal foraging habitat selection in southern elephant seals

Selecting foraging habitat is a fundamental behavior in the life of organisms as it directly links resource acquisition to fitness. Differences in habitat selection among individuals may arise from several intrinsic and extrinsic factors, and yet, their interaction has been given little attention in the study of wild populations. We combine sex, body size, and boldness to explain individual differences in the seasonal foraging habitat selection of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from the Kerguelen Archipelago. We hypothesize that habitat selection is linked to the trade-off between resource acquisition and risk, and that individuals differ in their position along this trade-off because of differences in reproductive strategies, life stages, and metabolic requirements. Before the post-molt foraging trip, we used a novel object approach test to quantify the boldness of 28 subadult and adult females and 42 subadult males and equipped them with data loggers to track their movements at sea. Subadult males selected neritic and oceanic habitats, whereas females mostly selected less productive oceanic habitats. Both sexes showed a seasonal shift from Antarctic habitats in the south in the summer to the free of ice subantarctic and subtropical habitats in the north in the winter. Males avoided oceanic habitats and selected more productive neritic and Antarctic habitats with body size mostly in the winter. Bolder males selected northern warmer waters in winter, while shyer ones selected the Kerguelen plateau and southern colder oceanic waters. Bolder females selected the Kerguelen plateau in the summer when prey profitability is assumed to be the highest. This study not only provides new insights into the spatiotemporal foraging ecology of elephant seals in relation to personality but also emphasizes the relevance of combining several intrinsic and extrinsic factors in understanding among-individual variation in space use essential in wildlife management and conservation.

Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems

Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.

Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems

Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.