Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

Historical and future heat-related mortality in Portugal's Alentejo region

BACKGROUND

The increased severity of extreme weather and anticipated climate change has intensified heat stress-related mortality worldwide. This study examines the historical short-term effects of heat on mortality in Alentejo, Portugal's warmest region, and projects it up to the end of the century.

METHODS

Using data from 1980 to 2015 during warm seasons (May-September), the association between daily mortality by all-causes and mean temperature was examined following a case time series design, applied at both regional and subregional scales. Projections for daily temperatures were obtained from regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). We also examined temporal shifts in mortality considering potential long-term and seasonal adaptative responses to heat. We then quantified the yearly effects of heat by calculating absolute and relative excess mortality from 1980 to 2015, specifically during the heatwave of 2003 (July 27 to August 15), and in future projections at 20-year intervals through 2100.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed a significant rise in mortality risk at temperatures exceeding a minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of 19.0 °C, with an exponential trend and delayed effects lasting up to 5 days. The risk increased by 413% at the maximum extreme temperature of 36.6 °C. From 1980 to 2015, 2.32% of total deaths, equating to over 5,296 deaths, were heat-associated. No significant shifts over time were noted in the population's response to heat. Future projections, without adaptation and demographic changes, show a potential increase in mortality by 15.88% under a "no mitigation policy" scenario by 2100, while mitigation measures could limit the rise to 6.61%.

CONCLUSION

Results underscore the urgent need for protective health policies to reduce regional population vulnerability and prevent premature heat-related deaths across the century.

Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico

Recent studies project that temperature-related mortality will be the largest source of damage from climate change, with particular concern for the elderly whom it is believed bear the largest heat-related mortality risk. We study heat and mortality in Mexico, a country that exhibits a unique combination of universal mortality microdata and among the most extreme levels of humid heat. Combining detailed measurements of wet-bulb temperature with age-specific mortality data, we find that younger people who are particularly vulnerable to heat: People under 35 years old account for 75% of recent heat-related deaths and 87% of heat-related lost life years, while those 50 and older account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of cold-related lost life years. We develop high-resolution projections of humid heat and associated mortality and find that under the end-of-century SSP 3-7.0 emissions scenario, temperature-related deaths shift from older to younger people. Deaths among under-35-year-olds increase 32% while decreasing by 33% among other age groups.

The interaction effects between summer heat exposure and economic development on the settlement intention in floating population in China

Limited studies examined the interaction effects between summer heat exposure and economic development on the settlement intention, especially for the floating population. Binary logistic regression model was used to examine the association of summer temperature, per capita GRDP (PGRDP), summer temperature × PGRDP with settlement intention. Additive interaction term for summer temperature and PGRDP level was used to test the interactive effects. This study indicates that summer heat exposure will decrease the settlement intention of migrants (OR:1.386, 95% CI: 1.35-1.423), while PGRDP will increase settlement intention (OR: 0.893, 95% CI: 0.870-0.917). There is a negative interaction between summer temperature and PGRDP in the additive model. To a certain extent, summer heat exposure can weaken the attractiveness of economic development for migrants to settle down, they prefer to settle in cities with favorable temperatures and high levels of economic development. Stratified analyses illustrated that summer heat exposure showed lower settlement intention among female, the elderly, engaged in agriculture and industry and living in central China. The government should take measures about mitigation, adaptation and balancing economic development and climate change to reduce the adverse impacts of summer heat, and pay more attention to vulnerable groups and backward regions.

Non-optimal temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity burden by cause, age and sex under climate and population change scenarios: a nationwide modelling study in Japan

Background

Future temperature effects on mortality and morbidity may differ. However, studies comparing projected future temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity in the same setting are limited. Moreover, these studies did not consider future population change, human adaptation, and the variations in subpopulation susceptibility. Thus, we simultaneously projected the temperature-related mortality and morbidity by cause, age, and sex under population change, and human adaptation scenarios in Japan, a super-ageing society.

Methods

We used daily mean temperatures, mortality, and emergency ambulance dispatch (a sensitive indicator for morbidity) in 47 prefectures of Japan from 2015 to 2019 as the reference for future projections. Future mortality and morbidity were generated at prefecture level using four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios considering population changes. We calculated future temperature-related mortality and morbidity by combining baseline values with future temperatures and existing temperature risk functions by cause (all-cause, circulatory, respiratory), age (<65 years, ≥65 years), and sex under various climate change and SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Full human adaptation was simulated based on empirical evidence using a fixed percentile of minimum mortality or morbidity temperature (MMT), while no adaptation was simulated with a fixed absolute MMT.

Findings

A future temporal decline in mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was observed, driven by greater cold-related deaths than heat-related deaths. In contrast, temperature-related morbidity increased over time, which was primarily driven by heat. In the 2050s and 2090s, under a moderate scenario, there are 83.69 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] 38.32-124.97) and 77.31 (95% eCI 36.84-114.47) all-cause deaths per 100,000 population, while there are 345.07 (95% eCI 258.31-438.66) and 379.62 (95% eCI 271.45-509.05) all-cause morbidity associated with non-optimal temperatures. These trends were largely consistent across causes, age, and sex groups. Future heat-attributable health burden is projected to increase substantially, with spatiotemporal variations and is particularly pronounced among individuals ≥65 y and males. Full human adaptation could yield a decreasing temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity in line with a decreasing population.

Interpretation

Our findings could support the development of targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to address future heat-related impacts effectively. This includes improved healthcare allocations for ambulance dispatch and hospital preventive measures during heat periods, particularly custom-tailored to address specific health outcomes and vulnerable subpopulations.

Funding

Japan Science and Technology Agency and Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency and Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.

Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China

IMPORTANCE

Climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would bring substantial health co-benefits by directly alleviating climate change or indirectly reducing air pollution. As one of the largest developing countries and GHG emitter globally, China's carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality goals would lead to substantial co-benefits on global environment and therefore on human health. This review summarized the key findings and gaps in studies on the impact of China's carbon mitigation strategies on human health.

HIGHLIGHTS

There is a wide consensus that limiting the temperature rise well below 2 °C would markedly reduce the climate-related health impacts compared with high emission scenario, although heat-related mortalities, labor productivity reduction rates, and infectious disease morbidities would continue increasing over time as temperature rises. Further, hundreds of thousands of air pollutant-related mortalities (mainly due to PM2.5 and O3) could be avoided per year compared with the reference scenario without climate policy. Carbon reduction policies can also alleviate morbidities due to acute exposure to PM2.5. Further research with respect to morbidities attributed to nonoptimal temperature and air pollution, and health impacts attributed to precipitation and extreme weather events under current carbon policy in China or its equivalent in other developing countries is needed to improve our understanding of the disease burden in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides up-to-date evidence of potential health co-benefits under Chinese carbon policies and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits into future climate policy development in both China and other nations endeavoring carbon reductions.

Climate Change Projections for Stroke Incidence in Taiwan: Impact of 2 °C and 4 °C Global Warming Level

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to establish the exposure-lag-response effect between daily maximum temperature and stroke-related emergency department visits and to project heat-induced stroke impacts under global warming levels (GWL) of 2 °C and 4 °C.

METHODS

Stroke-related emergency department visits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 were identified using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study population consisted of 1,100,074 initial stroke cases matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke controls. We employed Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) in a case-crossover study to investigate the association between temperature and stroke. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models with a Poisson function were used to correlate high-temperature exposure with annual stroke incidence rates. Projections were made under two global warming scenarios, GWL 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C, using Coupled General Circulation Model (GCMs). Baseline data from 1995 to 2014 were transformed for spatial distribution at the township level. Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was performed using Quantum GIS 3.2.0 software.

RESULTS

DLNM exposure-lag-response effect revealed that daily maximum temperature exceeding 34 °C significantly increased the risk of stroke-related emergency department visits, particularly for ischemic stroke. Under the 2 °C GWL scenario, the frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 34 °C is projected to rise substantially by the median year of 2042, with a further increase to 92.6 ± 18.0 days/year by 2065 under the 4 °C GWL scenario. Ischemic stroke showed the highest increase in temperature-related incidence rates, notably rising from 7.80% under the GWL 2 °C to 36.06% under the GWL 4 °C. Specifically, the annual temperature-related incidence rate for ischemic stroke is expected to increase significantly by 2065. Regions such as Taichung, Hsinchu, Yilan, and Taitung demonstrated pronounced changes in heat-related ischemic stroke incidence under the GWL 4 °C.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings emphasize the importance of addressing temperature-related stroke risks, particularly in regions projected to experience significant temperature increases. Effective mitigation strategies are crucial to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on stroke incidence and safeguard public health.

Climate change effects in older people's health: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Climate change has serious consequences for the morbidity and mortality of older adults.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the effects of climate change on older people's health.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted following the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines and the PRISMA-ScR checklist. Quantitative research and reports from organizations describing the effects of climate change on older people were selected.

RESULTS

Sixty-three full-text documents were selected. Heat and air pollution were the two factors that had the most negative effects on cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality in older people. Mental health and cognitive function were also affected.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change affects several health problems in older individuals, especially high temperatures and air pollution. Nursing professionals must have the necessary skills to respond to the climate risks in older adults. More instruments are required to determine nursing competencies on climate change and the health of this population group.

PATIENT OF PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution.

Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: A review of temperature-related health impacts

Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change. To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis. Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177-246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China

Background

With the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.

Methods

We employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field.

Results

This cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196.

Conclusion

The study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.

Synergetic roadmap of carbon neutrality and clean air for China

It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on greenhouse gas reduction, air quality improvement, and improved health. In the context of carbon peak, carbon neutrality, and clean air policies, this perspective tracks and analyzes the process of the synergetic governance of air pollution and climate change in China by developing and monitoring 18 indicators. The 18 indicators cover the following five aspects: air pollution and associated weather-climate conditions, progress in structural transition, sources, inks, and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition, health impacts and benefits of coordinated control, and synergetic governance system and practices. By tracking the progress in each indicator, this perspective presents the major accomplishment of coordinated control, identifies the emerging challenges toward the synergetic governance, and provides policy recommendations for designing a synergetic roadmap of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air for China.

Possible adaptation measures for climate change in preventing heatstroke among older adults in Japan

Introduction

Heatstroke mortality is highest among older adults aged 65 years and older, and the risk is even doubled among those aged 75 years and older. The incidence of heatstroke is expected to increase in the future with elevated temperatures owing to climate change. In the context of a super-aged society, we examined possible adaptation measures in Japan that could prevent heatstroke among older people using an epidemiological survey combined with mathematical modeling.

Methods

To identify possible interventions, we conducted a cross-sectional survey, collecting information on heatstroke episodes from 2018 to 2019 among people aged 75 years and older. Responses were analyzed from 576 participants, and propensity score matching was used to adjust for measurable confounders and used to estimate the effect sizes associated with variables that constitute possible interventions. Subsequently, a weather-driven statistical model was used to predict heatstroke-related ambulance transports. We projected the incidence of heatstroke-related transports until the year 2100, with and without adaptation measures.

Results

The risk factor with the greatest odds ratio (OR) of heatstroke among older adults was living alone (OR 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.4). Other possible risk factors included an inability to drink water independently and the absence of air conditioning. Using three climate change scenarios, a more than 30% increase in the incidence of heatstroke-related ambulance transports was anticipated for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, as compared with a carbon-neutral scenario. Given 30% reduction in single living, a 15% reduction in the incidence of heatstroke is expected. Given 70% improvement in all three risk factors, a 40% reduction in the incidence can be expected.

Conclusion

Possible adaptation measures include providing support for older adults living alone, for those who have an inability to drink water and for those without air conditioning. To be comparable to carbon neutrality, future climate change under RCP 2.6 requires achieving a 30% relative reduction in all three identified risks at least from 2060; under RCP 4.5, a 70% reduction from 2050 at the latest is needed. In the case of RCP 8.5, the goal of heatstroke-related transports approaching RCP 1.9 cannot be achieved.

The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies

BACKGROUND

Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies.

METHODS

We extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes.

RESULTS

Higher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a - 0.46 ± 0.14 , - 0.41 ± 0.12 , and 0.41 ± 0.12 standard deviation (± standard error ) change in the moderate slope, extreme slope, and MMTP, respectively. However, education had mixed indirect influences via associations with life expectancy, the aging index, and relative income. Higher life expectancy had mixed relations with heat-related mortality, being associated with higher risk at moderate temperatures (0.33 ± 0.11 for the moderate slope; - 0.19 ± 0.097 for the MMTP) but lower underlying mortality rates (- 0.72 ± 0.097 ). A higher aging index was associated with higher burdens through higher risk at extreme temperatures (0.13 ± 0.072 for the extreme slope) and higher underlying mortality rates (0.93 ± 0.055 ). Relative income had relatively small, mixed influences.

DISCUSSION

Our novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.

Future Temperature-Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation

Mortality due to extreme temperatures is one of the most worrying impacts of climate change. In this analysis, we use historic mortality and temperature data from 106 cities in the United States to develop a model that predicts deaths attributable to temperature. With this model and projections of future temperature from climate models, we estimate temperature-related deaths in the United States due to climate change, changing demographics, and adaptation. We find that temperature-related deaths increase rapidly as the climate warms, but this is mainly due to an expanding and aging population. For global average warming below 3°C above pre-industrial levels, we find that climate change slightly reduces temperature-related mortality in the U.S. because the reduction of cold-related mortality exceeds the increase in heat-related deaths. Above 3°C warming, whether the increase in heat-related deaths exceeds the decrease in cold-related deaths depends on the level of adaptation. Southern U.S. cities are already well adapted to hot temperatures and the reduction of cold-related mortality drives overall lower mortality. Cities in the Northern U.S. are not well adapted to high temperatures, so the increase in heat-related mortality exceeds the reduction in cold-related mortality. Thus, while the total number of climate-related mortality may not change much, climate change will shift mortality in the U.S. to higher latitudes.

The contribution of demographic changes to future heat-related health burdens under climate change scenarios

Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.

Heat Adaptation among the Elderly in Spain (1983-2018)

The capacity for adaptation to climate change is limited, and the elderly rank high among the most exposed population groups. To date, few studies have addressed the issue of heat adaptation, and little is known about the long-term effects of exposure to heat. One indicator that allows the ascertainment of a population's level of adaptation to heat is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which links temperature and daily mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain, firstly, adaptation to heat among persons aged ≥ 65 years across the period 1983 to 2018 through analysis of the MMT; and secondly, the trend in such adaptation to heat over time with respect to the total population. A retrospective longitudinal ecological time series study was conducted, using data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the study period. Over time, the MMT was highest among elderly people, with a value of 28.6 °C (95%CI 28.3-28.9) versus 28.2 °C (95%CI 27.83-28.51) for the total population, though this difference was not statistically significant. A total of 62% of Spanish provinces included populations of elderly people that had adapted to heat during the study period. In general, elderly persons' level of adaptation registered an average value of 0.11 (°C/decade).

Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?

Future projection of the temperature-related health burden, including mortality and hospital admissions, is a growing field of research. These studies aim to provide crucial information for decision-makers considering existing health policies as well as integrating targeted adaptation strategies to evade the health burden. However, this field of research is still overshadowed by large uncertainties. These uncertainties exist to an extent in the future climate and population models used by such studies but largely in the disparities in underlying assumptions. Existing studies differ in the factors incorporated for projection and strategies for considering the future adaptation of the population to temperature. These differences exist to a great degree because of a lack of robust evidence as well as gaps in the field of climate epidemiology that still require extensive input from the research community. This narrative review summarizes the current status of projection studies of temperature-attributable health burden, the guiding assumptions behind them, the common grounds, as well as the differences. Overall, the review aims to highlight existing evidence and knowledge gaps as a basis for designing future studies on temperature-attributable health burden estimation. Finding a robust methodology for projecting the future health burden could be a milestone for climate epidemiologists as this would largely benefit the world when applying this technique to project the climate-attributable cause-specific health burden and adapt our existing health policies accordingly.

Association between ambient temperature and age-specific mortality from the elderly: Epidemiological evidence from the Chinese prefecture with most serious aging

Older people are main susceptible group affected by non-optimal temperature. The aim of the study was to determine how mortality of older people with different ages are affected by temperatures. For this study, we collected data of all-cause death of 256,037 people aged between 65 and 104 years of age from a prefecture located in the north subtropical area with most serious aging rate in 2000, 2010 and 2020 in China. A distributed lag nonlinear model under different age groups was used to estimate non-optimal temperature associations to mortality. The results revealed: (1) With increasing age, older people were more likely to die during moderate low temperature, the proportion of attributable fraction of moderate low temperature in all temperature gradually increased with age. (2) Moderate low temperature could be divided into two parts, the lower part caused most death at age 65-79 and the higher part was not so dangerous, while for age 80+, preventive actions should be taken for both parts. (3) A leveling-off and deceleration phenomenon was observed at age 95-99 for low temperature, but not 100-104, it may be virtually a consequence of "harvesting effect" in that susceptible and common people have died before age 95, it was coincidence with mortality deceleration at extreme old ages found by demographic scholars over the past 200 years. (4) Heat wave had much higher relative risk than cold spell compared with moderate high and low temperature because of steeper slope of relative risk at the period of moderate-extreme conversion of high temperature, the older people should pay more attention to weather with moderate-extreme conversion of high temperature. Furthermore, our findings could help improve the understanding of non-optimal temperature on health of older people and support the development of response strategies for different seasons at different ages.

Projections of future temperature-related cardiovascular mortality under climate change, urbanization and population aging in Beijing, China

Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.

Exploring the Climate Temperature Effects on Settlement Intentions of Older Migrants: Evidence from China

Permanent migration across provinces in China has become an important strategy for Chinese older people to respond to a temperature-unfriendly place of residence in late life. However, the relation between temperature effects and permanent settlements of older migrants remains unclear. Based on the data obtained from China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this paper examined how four temperature effects (i.e., cold effect, heat effect, temperature gap effect, and temperature zone effect) play a role in shaping older migrants’ intentions to settle permanently in a destination place by conducting logistic regression analysis. Our findings show that: (1) extreme cold (rather than extreme heat or mild temperature) was found to have significant effects on settlement intentions of older people; (2) relative winter temperature between origin and destination places rather than absolute winter temperature in the destination place has a significant positive effect on the settlement intentions; (3) spatially, older migrants tend to migrate to geographically adjacent temperature zones. Our findings will inform a more effective planning and allocation of services for supporting older people by better understanding trends and intentions of older migrants.

Nationwide Analysis of the Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: The Role of Population Aging

BACKGROUND

Because older adults are particularly vulnerable to nonoptimal temperatures, it is expected that the progressive population aging will amplify the health burden attributable to heat and cold due to climate change in future decades. However, limited evidence exists on the contribution of population aging on historical temperature-mortality trends.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to a) assess trends in heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017 and b) to quantify the contribution of population aging to the observed patterns.

METHODS

We collected daily time series of all-cause mortality by age group (<65, 65-79, and 80 y and older) and mean temperature for each Swiss municipality (1969-2017). We performed a two-stage time-series analysis with distributed lag nonlinear models and multivariate longitudinal meta-regression to obtain temperature-mortality associations by canton, decade, and age group. We then calculated the corresponding excess mortality attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and compared it to the estimates obtained in a hypothetical scenario of no population aging.

RESULTS

Between 1969 and 2017, heat- and cold-related mortality represented 0.28% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18, 0.37] and 8.91% (95% CI: 7.46, 10.21) of total mortality, which corresponded to 2.4 and 77 deaths per 100,000 people annually, respectively. Although mortality rates for heat slightly increased over time, annual number of deaths substantially raised up from 74 (12;125) to 181 (39;307) between 1969-78 and 2009-17, mostly driven by the ≥80-y-old age group. Cold-related mortality rates decreased across all ages, but annual cold-related deaths still increased among the ≥80, due to the increase in the population at risk. We estimated that heat- and cold-related deaths would have been 52.7% and 44.6% lower, respectively, in the most recent decade in the absence of population aging.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that a substantial proportion of historical temperature-related impacts can be attributed to population aging. We found that population aging has attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality and amplified heat-related mortality. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9835.

The effect and prediction of diurnal temperature range in high altitude area on outpatient and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular diseases

PURPOSE

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator closely associated with global climate change. Thus, we aim to explore the effects of DTR on the outpatient and emergency room (O&ER) admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and related predictive research.

METHODS

The O&ER admissions data for CVDs from three general hospitals in Jinchang of Gansu Province were collected from 2013 to 2016. A generalized additive model (GAM) with Poisson regression was employed to analyze the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stoke. GAM was also used to preform predictive research of the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for CVDs.

RESULTS

There were similar positive linear relationships between DTR and the O&ER visits with the four cardiovascular diseases. And the cumulative lag effects were higher than the single lag effects. A 1 °C increase in DTR corresponded to a 1.30% (0.99-1.62%) increase in O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases. Males and elderly were more sensitivity to DTR. The estimates in non-heating season were higher than in heating season. The trial prediction accuracy rate of CVDs based on DTR was between 59.32 and 74.40%.

CONCLUSIONS

DTR has significantly positive association with O&ER admissions for CVDs, which can be used as a prediction index of the admissions of O&ER with CVDs.

The role of outdoor microclimatic features at long-term care facilities in advancing the health of its residents: An integrative review and future strategies

Projections show that Earth's climate will continue to warm concurrent with increases in the percentage of the world's elderly population. With an understanding that the body's resilience to the heat degrades as it ages, these coupled phenomena point to serious concerns of heat-related mortality in growing elderly populations. As many of the people in this age cohort choose to live in managed long-term care facilities, it's imperative that outdoor spaces of these communities be made thermally comfortable so that connections with nature and the promotion of non-sedentary activities are maintained. Studies have shown that simply being outside has a positive impact on a broad range of the psychosocial well-being of older adults. However, these spaces must be designed to afford accessibility, safety, and aesthetically pleasing experiences so that they are taken full advantage of. Here, we employ an integrative review to link ideas from the disciplines of climate science, health and physiology, and landscape architecture to explain the connections between heat, increased morbidity and mortality in aging adults, existing gaps in thermal comfort models, and key strategies in the development of useable, comfortable outdoor spaces for older adults. Integrative reviews allow for new frameworks or perspectives on a subject to be introduced. Uncovering the synergy of these three knowledge bases can contribute to guiding microclimatic research, design practitioners, and care providers as they seek safe, comfortable and inviting outdoor spaces for aging adults.

Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans

Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0-64 years; 65-74 years; 75-84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986-2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3-12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2-7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9-1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5-16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7-8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans.

The mortality cost of carbon

Many studies project that climate change can cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC) and prescribe optimal climate policy, human mortality impacts are limited and not updated to the latest scientific understanding. This study extends the DICE-2016 IAM to explicitly include temperature-related mortality impacts by estimating a climate-mortality damage function. We introduce a metric, the mortality cost of carbon (MCC), that estimates the number of deaths caused by the emissions of one additional metric ton of CO2. In the baseline emissions scenario, the 2020 MCC is 2.26 × 10‒4 [low to high estimate -1.71× 10‒4 to 6.78 × 10‒4] excess deaths per metric ton of 2020 emissions. This implies that adding 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020-equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average Americans-causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020-2100. Incorporating mortality costs increases the 2020 SCC from $37 to $258 [-$69 to $545] per metric ton in the baseline emissions scenario. Optimal climate policy changes from gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 to full decarbonization by 2050 when mortality is considered.

Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea

This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on the cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed the association of eight temperature metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum temperature during daytime, minimum temperature during nighttime, and mean, maximum, and minimum apparent temperature) with mortality and performed the cross-validation method to select the best model in selected cities of Switzerland and South Korea from May to September of 1995-2015. It was observed that HAF estimated using different metrics varied by 2.69-4.09% in eight cities of Switzerland and by 0.61-0.90% in six cities of South Korea. Based on the cross-validation method, mean temperature was estimated to be the best metric, and it revealed that the HAF of Switzerland and South Korea were 3.29% and 0.72%, respectively. Furthermore, estimates of HAF were improved by selecting the best city-specific model for each city, that is, 3.34% for Switzerland and 0.78% for South Korea. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to observe the uncertainty of HAF estimation originated from the selection of temperature metric and to present the HAF estimation based on the cross-validation method.

Prevalence and the factors associated with malnutrition risk in elderly Chinese inpatients

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is an under recognized, but common issue in elderly patients. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of poor nutritional status and identify comprehensive geriatric assessment-based clinical factors associated with increased malnutrition risk to assessing malnutrition risk in hospitalized elderly patients in China.

METHODS

A total of 365 elderly hospitalized patients (178 women, 76.37 ± 7.74 years) undertook a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), and have their nutritional status assessed using the short-form mini-nutritional assessment.

RESULTS

Among 365 patients, 32 (8.77%) were malnourished and 112 (30.68%) were at risk of malnutrition. A logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR], 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-2.23), alcohol consumption (OR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.19-3.48), presence or history of cancer or heart failure (OR, 3.48 and 2.86; 95% CI, 1.49-8.13 and 1.12-7.27), depression (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.97-4.17), body mass index (OR, 5.62; 95% CI, 3.62-8.71), being dependent in activity of daily living (OR, 3.81; 95% CI, 2.61-5.57), a lower score in instrumental activities of daily living (OR, 3.01; 95% CI, 2.09-4.33), recent fall(s) (OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.37-2.91), cognitive impairment (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.30-2.53), insomnia (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.07-2.06), hemoglobin and albumin level (OR, 1.72 and 2.86; 95% CI, 1.17-2.50 and 1.53-5.36) were independent correlates of malnutrition in older patients.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that age, alcohol consumption, chronic diseases (cancer and heart failure), depression, body mass index, function status, recent fall(s), cognitive impairment, insomnia, and low hemoglobin and albumin levels were independently associated with malnutrition in these patients. Comprehensive geriatric assessment can provide detailed information of older patients and can be a useful tool for assessing malnutrition risk-associated factors.

Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

A System Dynamics Model to Facilitate the Development of Policy for Urban Heat Island Mitigation

This article presents a customized system dynamics model to facilitate the informed development of policy for urban heat island mitigation within the context of future climate change, and with special emphasis on the reduction of heat-related mortality. The model incorporates a variety of components (incl.: the urban heat island effect; population dynamics; climate change impacts on temperature; and heat-related mortality) and is intended to provide urban planning and related professionals with: a facilitated means of understanding the risk of heat-related mortality within the urban heat island; and location-specific information to support the development of reasoned and targeted urban heat island mitigation policy.

Projections of Ambient Temperature- and Air Pollution-Related Mortality Burden Under Combined Climate Change and Population Aging Scenarios: a Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Climate change will affect mortality associated with both ambient temperature and air pollution. Because older adults have elevated vulnerability to both non-optimal ambient temperature (heat and cold) and air pollution, population aging can amplify future population vulnerability to these stressors through increasing the number of vulnerable older adults. We aimed to review recent evidence on projections of temperature- or air pollution-related mortality burden (i.e., number of deaths) under combined climate change and population aging scenarios, with a focus on evaluating the role of population aging in assessing these health impacts of climate change. We included studies published between 2014 and 2019 with age-specific population projections.

RECENT FINDINGS

We reviewed 16 temperature projection studies and 15 air pollution projection studies. Nine of the temperature studies and four of the air pollution studies took population aging into account by performing age-stratified analyses that utilized age-specific relationships between temperature or air pollution exposures and mortality (i.e., age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs)). Population aging amplifies the projected mortality burden of temperature and air pollution under a warming climate. Compared with a constant population scenario, population aging scenarios lead to less reduction or even increases in cold-related mortality burden, resulting in substantial net increases in future overall (heat and cold) temperature-related mortality burden. There is strong evidence suggesting that to accurately assess the future temperature- and air pollution-related mortality burden of climate change, investigators need to account for the amplifying effect of population aging. Thus, all future studies should incorporate age-specific population size projections and age-specific ERFs into their analyses. These studies would benefit from refinement of age-specific ERF estimates.

The environment as a determinant of successful aging or frailty

The number of elderly persons is rising rapidly, and healthspan is a key factor in determining the well-being of individuals and the sustainability of national health systems. Environmental health is crucial for a "successful aging". Complex relationships between environmental factors and non-communicable diseases play a major role, causing or accelerating disabilities. Besides genetic factors, aging results from the concurrence of several environmental factors starting from early (i.e. in utero) life, able to increase susceptibility to diseases in adulthood, and to promote frailty in the elderly. In aged people, an unhealthy environment contributes to a fast and early decline and increases vulnerability. Exposure to pollutants facilitates the onset and progression of cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic and neurologic diseases through direct effects and epigenetic mechanisms negatively affecting biological age. Healthy diet, healthy environment and constant physical activity could counteract, at least in part, the negative effects of environmental stressors. Almost all environmental factors generating detrimental effects on aging are modifiable, with relevant implications in terms of primary prevention measures potentially leading to decreased frailty, to an increase in the number of years lived without diseases or disability, and to a significant reduction in health expenditure.

Bioheat modeling of elderly and young for prediction of physiological and thermal responses in heat-stressful conditions

Exposure to hot and humid conditions results in physiological changes in metabolism, cardiac output and thermoregulation of the young adult and these changes deviate with elderly due to aging. The elderly population is more vulnerable than the healthy and young population due to age-weakened physiology and thermoregulatory functions. There are, however, limited bioheat models addressing such changes due to hot exposure in the young and the elderly. This paper develops robust bioheat models for young and elderly while incorporating the physiological changes under exposure to heat-stressful conditions for both age groups the age-related changes in physiology and thermoregulation to an elderly human. However, due to a large variability of thermoregulation among the elderly population, a sensitivity analysis revealed that the average elderly is characterized by metabolic rate and cardiac output, which are lower than those of the young by 21% and 14.4%, respectively. Moreover, the thresholds of the onset of vasodilation and sweating are delayed from those of young adults by 0.5 °C and 0.21 °C, respectively. The elderly and young bioheat models were validated with number of independent published experimental studies under hot exposures in steady and transient conditions. Model predictions of core and mean skin temperatures showed good agreement with published experimental data with a discrepancy of 0.1 °C and 0.5 °C, respectively.

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.

Heatwaves are expected to increase under climate change, and so are the associated deaths. Here the authors determine the regional high temperature thresholds for 27 metropolises in China and analyze the changes to heat-related mortality, showing that the additional global-warming temperature increase of 0.5°C, from 1.5°C to 2.0°C, will lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths, annually.

Impacts of exposure to ambient temperature on burden of disease: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Ambient temperature is an important determinant of mortality and morbidity, making it necessary to assess temperature-related burden of disease (BD) for the planning of public health policies and adaptive responses. To systematically review existing epidemiological evidence on temperature-related BD, we searched three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) on 1 September 2018. We identified 97 studies from 56 counties for this review, of which 75 reported the fraction or number of health outcomes (include deaths and diseases) attributable to temperature, and 22 reported disability-adjusted life years (include years of life lost and years lost due to disability) related to temperature. Non-optimum temperatures (i.e., heat and cold) were responsible for > 2.5% of mortality in all included high-income countries/regions, and > 3.0% of mortality in all included middle-income countries. Cold was mostly reported to be the primary source of mortality burden from non-optimum temperatures, but the relative role of three different temperature exposures (i.e., heat, cold, and temperature variability) in affecting morbidity and mortality remains unclear so far. Under the warming climate scenario, almost all projections assuming no population adaptation suggested future increase in heat-related but decrease in cold-related BD. However, some studies emphasized the great uncertainty in future pattern of temperature-related BD, largely depending on the scenarios of climate, population adaptation, and demography. We also identified important discrepancies and limitations in current research methodologies employed to measure temperature exposures and model temperature-health relationship, and calculate the past and project future temperature-related BD. Overall, exposure to non-optimum ambient temperatures has become and will continue to be a considerable contributor to the global and national BD, but future research is still needed to develop a stronger methodological framework for assessing and comparing temperature-related BD across different settings.

Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios

Projections of the magnitude and pattern of possible health risks from climate change should be based on multiple climate and development scenarios to describe the range of uncertainties, to inform effective and efficient policies. For a better understanding of climate change-related risks in seven metropolitan cities of South Korea, we estimated temperature-related summer (June to August) mortality until 2100 using projected changes in climate, population, and adaptation. In addition, we extracted the variations in the mortality estimates associated with uncertainties in climate, population, and adaptation scenarios using 25 climate models, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), three population scenarios (high, medium and low variants), and four adaptation scenarios (absolute threshold shift, slope reduction in the temperature-mortality relationship, a combination of slope reduction and threshold shift, and a sigmoid function based on the historical trend). Compared to the baseline period (1991⁻2015), temperature-attributable mortality in South Korea during summer in the 2090s is projected to increase 5.1 times for RCP 4.5 and 12.9 times for RCP 8.5 due to climate and population changes. Estimated future mortality varies by up to +44%/-55%, -80%, -60%, and +12%/-11% associated with the choice of climate models, adaptation, climate, and population scenarios, respectively, compared to the mortality estimated for the median of the climate models, no adaptation, RCP 8.5, and medium population variant. Health system choices about adaptation are the most important determinants of future mortality after climate projections. The range of possible future mortality underscores the importance of flexible, iterative risk management.

Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

Socio-geographic disparity in cardiorespiratory mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature in the United States

Compared with relative risk, attributable fraction (AF) is more informative when assessing the mortality burden due to some environmental exposures (e.g., ambient temperature). Up to date, however, available AF-based evidence linking temperature with mortality has been very sparse regionally and nationally, even for the leading mortality types such as cardiorespiratory deaths. This study aimed to quantify national and regional burden of cardiorespiratory mortality (CRM) attributable to ambient temperature in the USA, and to explore potential socioeconomic and demographic sources of spatial heterogeneity between communities. Daily CRM and weather data during 1987-2000 for 106 urban communities across the mainland of USA were acquired from the publicly available National Morbidity, Mortality and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS). We did the data analysis using a three-stage analytic approach. We first applied quasi-Poisson regression incorporated with distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate community-specific temperature-CRM associations, then pooled these associations at the regional and national level through a multivariate meta-analysis, and finally estimated the temperature-AF of CRM and performed subgroup analyses stratified by community-level characteristics. Both low and high temperatures increased short-term CRM risk, while temperature-CRM associations varied by regions. Nationally, the fraction of cardiorespiratory deaths caused by the total non-optimum, low, and high temperatures was 7.58% (95% empirical confidence interval, 6.68-8.31%), 7.15% (6.31-7.85%), and 0.43% (0.37-0.46%), respectively. Greater temperature-AF was identified in two northern regions (i.e., Industrial Midwest and North East) and communities with lower temperature and longitude, higher latitude, and moderate humidity. Additionally, higher vulnerability appeared in locations with higher urbanization level, more aging population, less White race, and lower socioeconomic status. Ambient temperature may be responsible for a large fraction of cardiorespiratory deaths. Also, temperature-AF of CRM varied considerably by geographical and climatological factors, as well as community-level disparity in socioeconomic status.

Projections for temperature-related years of life lost from cardiovascular diseases in the elderly in a Chinese city with typical subtropical climate

OBJECTIVE

Extreme temperature is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to temperature variation. Global warming and the increasingly aging population are two major global challenges for human health; thus, an urgent need exists to project the temperature-related cardiovascular disease burden regarding both of the aforementioned factors. We aimed to the project temperature-related burden of cardiovascular diseases using years of life lost (YLL) in the elderly in a Chinese city with typical subtropical climate.

METHODS

A retrospective time-series study was first conducted to estimate cardiovascular disease burden associated with temperature in the elderly from 2008 to 2015 in Ningbo, China. Then, future projections considering demographic change and adaptation under 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) and 3 different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s were estimated.

RESULTS

The exposure-response curve for temperature on YLL from cardiovascular diseases was U-shaped, with increased YLL for both higher- and lower- than optimal temperature. The projected annual increase in heat-related YLL was outweighed by the decrease in cold-related YLL. However, monthly analysis demonstrated that temperature-related YLL will increase significantly in August. Additionally, heat-related YLL is projected to increase 3.1-11.5 times for the 2050s and 2070s relative to baseline, when considering demographic changes, even with 30% adaptation taken into consideration.

CONCLUSIONS

Although annual YLL from cardiovascular diseases in the elderly associated with temperature will decrease in the future, heat-related YLL will increase tremendously, which indicates that more adaptation strategies and greenhouse emission control measures should be undertaken to reduce the future heat-related burden of cardiovascular diseases in the elderly.

Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections

High temperatures have large impacts on premature mortality risks across the world, and there is concern that warming temperatures associated with climate change, and in particular larger-than-expected increases in the proportion of days with extremely high temperatures, may lead to increasing mortality risks. Comparisons of heat-related mortality exposure-response functions across different cities show that the effects of heat on mortality risk vary by latitude, with more pronounced heat effects in more northerly climates. Evidence has also emerged in recent years of trends over time in heat-related mortality, suggesting that in many locations, the risk per unit increase in temperature has been declining. Here, I review the emerging literature on these trends, and draw conclusions for studies that seek to project future impacts of heat on mortality. I also make reference to the more general heat-mortality literature, including studies comparing effects across locations. I conclude that climate change projection studies will need to take into account trends over time (and possibly space) in the exposure response function for heat-related mortality. Several potential methods are discussed.

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO₂ concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO₂ concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities.

Changes in relative fit of human heat stress indices to cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal hospitalizations across five Australian urban populations

Various human heat stress indices have been developed to relate atmospheric measures of extreme heat to human health impacts, but the usefulness of different indices across various health impacts and in different populations is poorly understood. This paper determines which heat stress indices best fit hospital admissions for sets of cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases across five Australian cities. We hypothesized that the best indices would be largely dependent on location. We fit parent models to these counts in the summers (November-March) between 2001 and 2013 using negative binomial regression. We then added 15 heat stress indices to these models, ranking their goodness of fit using the Akaike information criterion. Admissions for each health outcome were nearly always higher in hot or humid conditions. Contrary to our hypothesis that location would determine the best-fitting heat stress index, we found that the best indices were related largely by health outcome of interest, rather than location as hypothesized. In particular, heatwave and temperature indices had the best fit to cardiovascular admissions, humidity indices had the best fit to respiratory admissions, and combined heat-humidity indices had the best fit to renal admissions. With a few exceptions, the results were similar across all five cities. The best-fitting heat stress indices appear to be useful across several Australian cities with differing climates, but they may have varying usefulness depending on the outcome of interest. These findings suggest that future research on heat and health impacts, and in particular hospital demand modeling, could better reflect reality if it avoided "all-cause" health outcomes and used heat stress indices appropriate to specific diseases and disease groups.

Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, and has been linked with mortality and morbidity in previous studies. To date, however, little evidence has been available regarding the association of DTR with years of life lost (YLL). This study aimed to evaluate the DTR-related burden on both YLL and mortality. We collected individual records of all registered deaths and daily meteorological data in Wuhan, central China, between 2009 and 2012. For the whole population, every 1 °C increase in DTR at a lag of 0–1 days was associated with an increase of 0.65% (95% CI: 0.08–1.23) and 1.42 years (−0.88–3.72) for mortality and YLL due to non-accidental deaths, respectively. Relatively stronger DTR-mortality/YLL associations were found for cardiovascular deaths. Subgroup analyses (stratified by gender, age, and education level) showed that females, the elderly (75+ years old), and those with higher education attainment (7+ years) suffered more significantly from both increased YLL and mortality due to large DTR. Our study added additional evidence that short-term exposure to large DTR was associated with increased burden of premature death using both mortality incidence and YLL.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research.

METHODS

The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised.

CONCLUSIONS

Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.