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Yang H, Chen J, Zhong C, Zhang Z, Hu Z, Wu K. Night lights observations significantly improve the explainability of intra-annual vegetation growth globally. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 945:173990. [PMID: 38879039 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173990] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2024] [Revised: 06/10/2024] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 06/22/2024]
Abstract
Understanding the underlying mechanism of vegetation growth is of great significance to improve our knowledge of how vegetation growth responds to its surrounding environment, thereby benefiting the prediction of future vegetation growth and guiding environmental management. However, human impacts on vegetation growth, especially its intra-annual variability, still represent a knowledge gap. Night Lights (NL) have been demonstrated as an effective indicator to characterize human activities, but little is known about the potential improvement of intra-annual vegetation growth using seasonal NL observations. To address this gap, we investigated and quantified the explainability improvement of intra-annual vegetation growth by establishing a multiple linear regression model for vegetation growth (indicated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) with human factor (indicated by NL observations here) and three climatic factors, i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation using the Principal Components Regression (PCR) method. Results indicate that NL observations significantly improve our understanding of intra-annual vegetation growth globally. Model explainability, i.e., adjusted R2 metric of the PCR model, was comparatively improved by 54 % on average with a median value of 11 % when taking NL observations into consideration. Such improvement occurred in 82 % of the whole investigation pixels. We found that the improvement of model explanatory power was significant in regions where both NL and NDVI trends were large, except for the case where both of their trends were negative. At the country-level, the improvement of model explanatory power increases as GDP decreases, illustrating a greater improvement in a lower middle-income country than that in a high-income country. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering human activities (indicated by NL here) in vegetation growth, offering novel insights into the explanation of intra-annual vegetation growth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Han Yang
- School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570000, China
| | - Jiahao Chen
- School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570000, China
| | - Chaohui Zhong
- School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570000, China
| | - Zijia Zhang
- Ecological Environment Monitoring Center of Hainan Province, Haikou 571126, China
| | - Zhongmin Hu
- School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570000, China; Hainan Baoting Tropical Rainforest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
| | - Kai Wu
- School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570000, China; Hainan Baoting Tropical Rainforest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China.
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2
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Laughlin DC, McGill BJ. Trees have overlapping potential niches that extend beyond their realized niches. Science 2024; 385:75-80. [PMID: 38963858 DOI: 10.1126/science.adm8671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 07/06/2024]
Abstract
Tree species appear to prefer distinct climatic conditions, but the true nature of these preferences is obscured by species interactions and dispersal, which limit species' ranges. We quantified realized and potential thermal niches of 188 North American tree species to conduct a continental-scale test of the architecture of niches. We found strong and consistent evidence that species occurring at thermal extremes occupy less than three-quarters of their potential niches, and species' potential niches overlap at a mean annual temperature of ~12°C. These results clarify the breadth of thermal tolerances of temperate tree species and support the centrifugal organization of thermal niches. Accounting for the nonrealized components of ecological niches will advance theory and prediction in global change ecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel C Laughlin
- Department of Botany, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
| | - Brian J McGill
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
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3
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Xu B, Wu X. A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 363:121408. [PMID: 38852411 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Xu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuefei Wu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China.
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4
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Muffler L, Weigel R, Beil I, Leuschner C, Schmeddes J, Kreyling J. Winter and spring frost events delay leaf-out, hamper growth and increase mortality in European beech seedlings, with weaker effects of subsequent frosts. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70028. [PMID: 39041017 PMCID: PMC11260882 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2023] [Revised: 07/03/2024] [Accepted: 07/05/2024] [Indexed: 07/24/2024] Open
Abstract
The persistence of plant populations depends crucially on successful regeneration. Yet, little is known about the effects of consecutive winter and spring frost events on the regeneration stage of trees from different seed sources, although this will partly determine the success of climate warming-driven poleward range shifts. In a common garden experiment with European beech (Fagus sylvatica) seedlings from winter 2015/2016 to autumn 2017, we studied how simulated successive spring and winter frost events affect leaf-out dates, growth performance, and survival rates of 1- to 2-year-old seedlings from provenances differing in climate at origin. We further investigated the combined effects of successive frost events. The first spring frost after germination led to a mortality rate up to 75%, resulting in reduced seedling numbers but better frost tolerance of the survivors, as reflected in a weaker impact of the following winter frost event in the survivors compared to the non-acclimated control. Final plant height was most strongly reduced by the spring frost in the second year. The winter frost event delayed leaf-out by up to 40 days, leading to severe growth impairment in 2017. Our results indicate partly successful frost acclimation and/or the selection of frost-hardier individuals, because the negative growth effects of consecutive frost events did not add up after exposure to more than one event. Both mechanisms may help to increase the frost tolerance of beech offspring. Nevertheless, mortality after the first spring frost was high, and frost exposure generally caused growth reductions. Thus, achieving higher frost tolerance may not be sufficient for beech seedlings to overcome frost-induced reductions in competitive strength caused by winter frost damage and delayed leaf enfolding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lena Muffler
- Plant Ecology and Ecosystem ResearchUniversity of GoettingenGoettingenGermany
- Ecological‐Botanical GardenUniversity of BayreuthBayreuthGermany
| | - Robert Weigel
- Plant Ecology and Ecosystem ResearchUniversity of GoettingenGoettingenGermany
- Ecological‐Botanical GardenUniversity of BayreuthBayreuthGermany
| | - Ilka Beil
- Experimental Plant EcologyUniversity of GreifswaldGreifswaldGermany
| | - Christoph Leuschner
- Plant Ecology and Ecosystem ResearchUniversity of GoettingenGoettingenGermany
| | - Jonas Schmeddes
- Experimental Plant EcologyUniversity of GreifswaldGreifswaldGermany
| | - Juergen Kreyling
- Experimental Plant EcologyUniversity of GreifswaldGreifswaldGermany
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5
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Laughlin DC. Unifying functional and population ecology to test the adaptive value of traits. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2024. [PMID: 38855941 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 05/23/2024] [Accepted: 05/29/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
Plant strategies are phenotypes shaped by natural selection that enable populations to persist in a given environment. Plant strategy theory is essential for understanding the assembly of plant communities, predicting plant responses to climate change, and enhancing the restoration of our degrading biosphere. However, models of plant strategies vary widely and have tended to emphasize either functional traits or life-history traits at the expense of integrating both into a general framework to improve our ecological and evolutionary understanding of plant form and function. Advancing our understanding of plant strategies will require investment in two complementary research agendas that together will unify functional ecology and population ecology. First, we must determine what is phenotypically possible by quantifying the dimensionality of plant traits. This step requires dense taxonomic sampling of traits on species representing the broad diversity of phylogenetic clades, environmental gradients, and geographical regions found across Earth. It is important that we continue to sample traits locally and share data globally to fill biased gaps in trait databases. Second, we must test the power of traits for explaining species distributions, demographic rates, and population growth rates across gradients of resource limitation, disturbance regimes, temperature, vegetation density, and frequencies of other strategies. This step requires thoughtful, theory-driven empiricism. Reciprocal transplant experiments beyond the native range and synthetic demographic modelling are the most powerful methods to determine how trait-by-environment interactions influence fitness. Moving beyond easy-to-measure traits and evaluating the traits that are under the strongest ecological selection within different environmental contexts will improve our understanding of plant adaptations. Plant strategy theory is poised to (i) unpack the multiple dimensions of productivity and disturbance gradients and differentiate adaptations to climate and resource limitation from adaptations to disturbance, (ii) distinguish between the fundamental and realized niches of phenotypes, and (iii) articulate the distinctions and relationships between functional traits and life-history traits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel C Laughlin
- Botany Department, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
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6
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Pawłowski TA, Suszka J, Mucha J, Zadworny M, Alipour S, Kurpisz B, Chmielarz P, Jagodziński AM, Chmura DJ. Climate legacy in seed and seedling traits of European beech populations. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 15:1355328. [PMID: 38911972 PMCID: PMC11190307 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1355328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/25/2024]
Abstract
Tree species' ability to persist within their current distribution ranges is determined by seed germination and seedling growth. Exploring variation in these traits in relation to climatic conditions helps to understand and predict tree population dynamics, and to support species management and conservation under future climate. We analyzed seeds and seedlings of 26 European beech populations from the northeastern boundary of the species range to test whether: 1) adaptation to climatic conditions is reflected in depth of dormancy and germination of seeds; 2) climatic characteristics of origin predictably affect seedling traits. The variation in seed dormancy and germination in a laboratory test, and seedling growth and morphology traits in a nursery common-garden test was examined. Populations originating from warmer and drier sites (mostly from the northern region), compared to those from the opposite end of climatic gradient, germinated later, with a lower success, and produced seedlings with shorter and tougher roots. They had deeper dormancy and poorer seed germination capacity, and are likely more vulnerable to environmental changes. The climatic conditions at the origin shape the intraspecific variation of seed germination and seedling traits, and may limit regeneration from seed and affect adaptation potential of beech to increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jan Suszka
- Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland
| | - Joanna Mucha
- Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznań, Poland
| | - Marcin Zadworny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznań, Poland
| | - Shirin Alipour
- Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland
| | - Barbara Kurpisz
- Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland
| | - Paweł Chmielarz
- Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland
| | | | - Daniel J. Chmura
- Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kórnik, Poland
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7
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Erlichman A, Sandell L, Otto SP, Aitken SN, Ronce O. Planting long-lived trees in a warming climate: Theory shows the importance of stage-dependent climatic tolerance. Evol Appl 2024; 17:e13711. [PMID: 38894979 PMCID: PMC11183180 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change poses a particular threat to long-lived trees, which may not adapt or migrate fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures. Assisted gene flow could facilitate adaptation of populations to future climates by using managed translocation of seeds from a warmer location (provenance) within the current range of a species. Finding the provenance that will perform best in terms of survival or growth is complicated by a trade-off. Because trees face a rapidly changing climate during their long lives, the alleles that confer optimal performance may vary across their lifespan. For instance, trees from warmer provenances could be well adapted as adults but suffer from colder temperatures while juvenile. Here we use a stage-structured model, using both analytical predictions and numerical simulations, to determine which provenance would maximize the survival of a cohort of long-lived trees in a changing climate. We parameterize our simulations using empirically estimated demographic transition matrices for 20 long-lived tree species. Unable to find reliable quantitative estimates of how climatic tolerance changes across stages in these same species, we varied this parameter to study its effect. Both our mathematical model and simulations predict that the best provenance depends strongly on how fast the climate changes and also how climatic tolerance varies across the lifespan of a tree. We thus call for increased empirical efforts to measure how climate tolerance changes over life in long-lived species, as our model suggests that it should strongly influence the best provenance for assisted gene flow.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adèle Erlichman
- ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRDMontpellierFrance
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Linnea Sandell
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- Department of Organismal BiologyUppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden
- Department of Urban and Rural DevelopmentSwedish University of AgricultureUppsalaSweden
| | - Sarah P. Otto
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Sally N. Aitken
- Department of Forest and Conservation SciencesUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Ophélie Ronce
- ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRDMontpellierFrance
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
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8
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John A, Olden JD, Oldfather MF, Kling MM, Ackerly DD. Topography influences diurnal and seasonal microclimate fluctuations in hilly terrain environments of coastal California. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0300378. [PMID: 38551923 PMCID: PMC10980203 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Understanding the topographic basis for microclimatic variation remains fundamental to predicting the site level effects of warming air temperatures. Quantifying diurnal fluctuation and seasonal extremes in relation to topography offers insight into the potential relationship between site level conditions and changes in regional climate. The present study investigated an annual understory temperature regime for 50 sites distributed across a topographically diverse area (>12 km2) comprised of mixed evergreen-deciduous woodland vegetation typical of California coastal ranges. We investigated the effect of topography and tree cover on site-to-site variation in near-surface temperatures using a combination of multiple linear regression and multivariate techniques. Sites in topographically depressed areas (e.g., valley bottoms) exhibited larger seasonal and diurnal variation. Elevation (at 10 m resolution) was found to be the primary driver of daily and seasonal variations, in addition to hillslope position, canopy cover and northness. The elevation effect on seasonal mean temperatures was inverted, reflecting large-scale cold-air pooling in the study region, with elevated minimum and mean temperature at higher elevations. Additionally, several of our sites showed considerable buffering (dampened diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations) compared to average regional conditions measured at an on-site weather station. Results from this study help inform efforts to extrapolate temperature records across large landscapes and have the potential to improve our ecological understanding of fine-scale seasonal climate variation in coastal range environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aji John
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Julian D. Olden
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Meagan F. Oldfather
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States of America
| | - Matthew M. Kling
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California–Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
| | - David D. Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California–Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California–Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
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9
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Wu A, Xiong X, Zhou G, Barmon M, Li A, Tang X, Liu J, Zhang Q, Liu S, Chu G, Zhang D. Climate change-related biodiversity fluctuations and composition changes in an old-growth subtropical forest: A 26-yr study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 914:169899. [PMID: 38184245 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 01/08/2024]
Abstract
The detection and attribution of biodiversity change is of great scientific interest and central to policy effects aimed at meeting biodiversity targets. Yet, how such a diverse climate scenarios influence forest biodiversity and composition dynamics remains unclear, particularly in high diversity systems of subtropical forests. Here we used data collected from the permanent sample plot spanning 26 years in an old-growth subtropical forest. Combining various climatic events (extreme drought, subsequent drought, warming, and windstorm), we analyzed long-term dynamics in multiple metrics: richness, turnover, density, abundance, reordering and stability. We did not observe consistent and directional trends in species richness under various climatic scenarios. Still, drought and windstorm events either reduced species gains or increased species loss, ultimately increased species turnover. Tree density increased significantly over time as a result of rapid increase in smaller individuals due to mortality in larger trees. Climate events caused rapid changes in dominant populations due to a handful of species undergoing strong increases or declines in abundance over time simultaneously. Species abundance composition underwent significant changes, particularly in the presence of drought and windstorm events. High variance ratio and species synchrony weaken community stability under various climate stress. Our study demonstrates that all processes underlying forest community composition changes often occur simultaneously and are equally affected by climate events, necessitating a holistic approach to quantifying community changes. By recognizing the interconnected nature of these processes, future research should accelerate comprehensive understanding and predicting of how forest vegetation responds to global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anchi Wu
- Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China; Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Xin Xiong
- Lushan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jiujiang 332900, China; Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Guoyi Zhou
- Institute of Ecology, School of Applied Meteorology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
| | - Milon Barmon
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, United States; Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution Graduate Program, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, United States
| | - Andi Li
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Xuli Tang
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Juxiu Liu
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Qianmei Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Shizhong Liu
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Guowei Chu
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
| | - Deqiang Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystem, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China
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10
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Perez-Navarro MA, Lloret F, Molina-Venegas R, Alcántara JM, Verdú M. Plant canopies promote climatic disequilibrium in Mediterranean recruit communities. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14391. [PMID: 38400769 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 02/05/2024] [Accepted: 02/09/2024] [Indexed: 02/26/2024]
Abstract
Current rates of climate change are exceeding the capacity of many plant species to track climate, thus leading communities to be in disequilibrium with climatic conditions. Plant canopies can contribute to this disequilibrium by buffering macro-climatic conditions and sheltering poorly adapted species to the oncoming climate, particularly in their recruitment stages. Here we analyse differences in climatic disequilibrium between understorey and open ground woody plant recruits in 28 localities, covering more than 100,000 m2 , across an elevation range embedding temperature and aridity gradients in the southern Iberian Peninsula. This study demonstrates higher climatic disequilibrium under canopies compared with open ground, supporting that plant canopies would affect future community climatic lags by allowing the recruitment of less arid-adapted species in warm and dry conditions, but also it endorse that canopies could favour warm-adapted species in extremely cold environments as mountain tops, thus pre-adapting communities living in these habitats to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Perez-Navarro
- CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Francisco Lloret
- CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecology Unit, Universitat Autonoma Barcelona, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rafael Molina-Venegas
- Department of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Biodiversity and Global Change Research Center (CIBC-UAM), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Julio M Alcántara
- Departamento de Biología Animal, Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Jaén, Jaén, Spain
- Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación del Sistema Tierra en Andalucía (IISTA), Universidad de Jaén, Jaén, Spain
| | - Miguel Verdú
- Centro de Investigaciones Sobre Desertificación (CIDE, CSIC-UV-GV), Moncada, Spain
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11
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Xiang T, Dong X, Shi L, Grenouillet G. Species range shifts of notorious invasive fish species in China under global changes: Insights and implications for management. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 347:119197. [PMID: 37797520 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 09/30/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]
Abstract
Due to global changes, e.g., climate change and trade globalization, China is facing an increasingly severe threat from invasive freshwater fish species, which have the potential to cause negative impacts across various aspects and pose significant challenges for their eradication once established. Therefore, prioritizing the understanding of invasive species' potential ranges and their determinants is vital for developing more targeted management strategies. Moreover, it is equally essential to consider the transitory range dynamics of invasive species that reflect changes in habitat availability and accessibility. Here, we used species distribution models (the maximum entropy algorithm) to assess the potential distributions of six notorious invasive fish species (i.e., Coptodon zillii, Cyprinus carpio, Gambusia affinis, Hemiculter leucisculus, Oreochromis mossambicus, and Oreochromis niloticus) in current and future (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) periods along with their determinants, under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5; global climate model: MRI-ESM2-0). Our results showed that the habitat suitability for the six species substantially benefited from temperature conditions (i.e., annual mean temperature or maximum temperature of warmest month). Throughout the given time periods, dramatic range expansions would occur for C. zillii, G. affinis, O. mossambicus, and O. niloticus, ranging from 38.61% to 291.90%. In contrast, the range of C. carpio would change slightly and irregularly, while H. leucisculus would contract marginally, with losses ranging from 1.06% to 12.60%. By the 2070s, species richness of these species would be relatively high in South, Central, and East China and parts of Southwest China. Furthermore, transitory fluctuations in the species ranges for all six species were observed throughout the entire time period (the 2030s-2070s). Given the range shifts for each species during different time periods, as well as time costs and budgets, adaptation strategies should be developed and implemented in the areas where they are most needed in each time period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Xiang
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), UMR5174, Université Toulouse 3 Paul Sabatier, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, 31062, France.
| | - Xianghong Dong
- College of Animal Science, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
| | - Lei Shi
- School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650504, China
| | - Gaël Grenouillet
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), UMR5174, Université Toulouse 3 Paul Sabatier, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, 31062, France; Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
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12
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Cicchino AS, Ghalambor CK, Funk WC. Linking critical thermal maximum to mortality from thermal stress in a cold-water frog. Biol Lett 2023; 19:20230106. [PMID: 37311548 PMCID: PMC10264101 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Estimates of organismal thermal tolerance are frequently used to assess physiological risk from warming, yet the assumption that these estimates are predictive of mortality has been called into question. We tested this assumption in the cold-water-specialist frog, Ascaphus montanus. For seven populations, we used dynamic experimental assays to measure tadpole critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and measured mortality from chronic thermal stress for 3 days at different temperatures. We tested the relationship between previously estimated population CTmax and observed mortality, as well as the strength of CTmax as a predictor of mortality compared to local stream temperatures capturing varying timescales. Populations with higher CTmax experienced significantly less mortality in the warmest temperature treatment (25°C). We also found that population CTmax outperformed stream temperature metrics as the top predictor of observed mortality. These results demonstrate a clear link between CTmax and mortality from thermal stress, contributing evidence that CTmax is a relevant metric for physiological vulnerability assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda S. Cicchino
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - Cameron K. Ghalambor
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - W. Chris Funk
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
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13
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Alexander N, Cosentino BJ, Schooley RL. Testing the niche reduction hypothesis for a fossorial rodent (
Geomys bursarius
) experiencing agricultural intensification. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9559. [PMCID: PMC9745012 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Revised: 10/27/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan Alexander
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois USA
| | | | - Robert L. Schooley
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois USA
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14
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McColl‐Gausden SC, Bennett LT, Clarke HG, Ababei DA, Penman TD. The fuel-climate-fire conundrum: How will fire regimes change in temperate eucalypt forests under climate change? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:5211-5226. [PMID: 35711097 PMCID: PMC9541362 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 05/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate-mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south-eastern Australia that encompass a broad continuum from climate-limited to fuel-limited. Climate-mediated change in weather and fuel was predicted to intensify fire regimes in all six landscapes by increasing wildfire extent and intensity and decreasing fire interval, potentially led by an earlier start to the fire season. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in all the tested fire regime attributes: area burnt, area burnt at high intensity, fire interval, high-intensity fire interval, and season midpoint. However, effects of future fuel acted synergistically or antagonistically with future weather depending on the landscape and the fire regime attribute. Our results suggest that fire regimes are likely to shift across temperate ecosystems in south-eastern Australia in coming decades, particularly in climate-limited systems where there is the potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah C. McColl‐Gausden
- FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoriaAustralia
| | - Lauren T. Bennett
- FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoriaAustralia
| | - Hamish G. Clarke
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem SolutionsUniversity of WollongongWollongongNew South WalesAustralia
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research HubWollongongNew South WalesAustralia
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney UniversityPenrithNew South WalesAustralia
| | - Dan A. Ababei
- FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoriaAustralia
- LightTwist SoftwareMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Trent D. Penman
- FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVictoriaAustralia
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15
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Abstract
Sustaining biodiversity and ecosystems in the long term depends on their adjustment to a rapidly changing climate. By characterizing the structure of the marine plant eelgrass and associated communities at 50 sites across its broad range, we found that eelgrass growth form and biomass retain a legacy of Pleistocene range shifts and genetic bottlenecks that in turn affect the biomass of algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs. The ecosystem-level effects of this ancient evolutionary legacy are comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing, suggesting that this economically important ecosystem may be unable to keep pace with rapid global change. Distribution of Earth’s biomes is structured by the match between climate and plant traits, which in turn shape associated communities and ecosystem processes and services. However, that climate–trait match can be disrupted by historical events, with lasting ecosystem impacts. As Earth’s environment changes faster than at any time in human history, critical questions are whether and how organismal traits and ecosystems can adjust to altered conditions. We quantified the relative importance of current environmental forcing versus evolutionary history in shaping the growth form (stature and biomass) and associated community of eelgrass (Zostera marina), a widespread foundation plant of marine ecosystems along Northern Hemisphere coastlines, which experienced major shifts in distribution and genetic composition during the Pleistocene. We found that eelgrass stature and biomass retain a legacy of the Pleistocene colonization of the Atlantic from the ancestral Pacific range and of more recent within-basin bottlenecks and genetic differentiation. This evolutionary legacy in turn influences the biomass of associated algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs, with effects comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing. Such historical lags in phenotypic acclimatization may constrain ecosystem adjustments to rapid anthropogenic climate change, thus altering predictions about the future functioning of ecosystems.
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16
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Isaak DJ, Young MK, Horan DL, Nagel D, Schwartz MK, McKelvey KS. Do metapopulations and management matter for relict headwater bull trout populations in a warming climate? ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2594. [PMID: 35343015 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2021] [Revised: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Mountain headwater streams have emerged as important climate refuges for native cold-water species due to their slow climate velocities and extreme physical conditions that inhibit non-native invasions. Species persisting in refuges often do so as fragmented, relict populations from broader historical distributions that are subject to ongoing habitat reductions and increasing isolation as climate change progresses. Key for conservation planning is determining where remaining populations will persist and how habitat restoration strategies can improve biological resilience to enhance the long-term prospects for species of concern. Studying bull trout, a headwater species in the northwestern USA, we developed habitat occupancy models using a data set of population occurrence in 991 natal habitat patches with a suite of novel geospatial covariates derived from high-resolution hydroclimatic scenarios and other sources representing watershed and instream habitat conditions, patch geometry, disturbance, and biological interactions. The best model correctly predicted bull trout occupancy status in 82.6% of the patches and included effects for: patch size estimated as habitat volume, extent of within-patch reaches <9°C mean August temperature, distance to nearest occupied patch, road density, invasive brook trout prevalence, patch slope, and frequency of high winter flows. The model was used to assess 16 scenarios of bull trout occurrence within the study streams that represented a range of restoration strategies under three climatic conditions (baseline, moderate change, and extreme change). Results suggested that regional improvements in bull trout status were difficult to achieve in realistic restoration strategies due to the pervasive nature of climate change and the limited extent of restoration actions given their high costs. However, occurrence probabilities in a subset of patches were highly responsive to restoration actions, suggesting that targeted investments to improve the resilience of some populations may be contextually beneficial. A possible strategy, therefore, is focusing effort on responsive populations near more robust population strongholds, thereby contributing to local enclaves where dispersal among populations further enhances resilience. Equally important, strongholds constituted a small numerical percentage of patches (5%-21%), yet encompassed the large majority of occupied habitat by volume (72%-89%) and their protection could have significant conservation benefits for bull trout.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Isaak
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, Idaho, USA
| | - Michael K Young
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Dona L Horan
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, Idaho, USA
| | - David Nagel
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, Idaho, USA
| | - Michael K Schwartz
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Kevin S McKelvey
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
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17
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Darroch SAF, Saupe EE, Casey MM, Jorge MLSP. Integrating geographic ranges across temporal scales. Trends Ecol Evol 2022; 37:851-860. [PMID: 35691773 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.05.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2022] [Revised: 05/10/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Geographic ranges are a fundamental unit of biogeography and macroecology. Increasingly, paleontologists and ecologists alike are reconstructing geographic ranges of species from fossils, in order to understand the long-term processes governing biogeographic and macroevolutionary patterns. As these reconstructions have become increasingly common, uncertainty has arisen over the equivalency of paleo-ranges and modern ranges. Here, we argue geographic ranges are time-averaged at all temporal scales, and reflect the biotic and abiotic processes operating across the equivalent range of time and space scales. This conceptual framework integrates the study of geographic ranges reconstructed using modern and ancient data, and highlights the potential for ranges to illuminate processes responsible for diversity patterns over intervals spanning days to tens of millions of years of Earth history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon A F Darroch
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, 5726 Stevenson Center, Nashville, TN 37240, USA; Evolutionary Studies Initiative, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235, USA; Senckenberg Museum of Natural History, Frankfurt 60325, Germany.
| | - Erin E Saupe
- University of Oxford, Department of Earth Sciences, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3AN, UK
| | - Michelle M Casey
- Towson University, Department of Physics, Astronomy and Geosciences, 8000 York Road, Towson, MD 21252, USA
| | - Maria L S P Jorge
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, 5726 Stevenson Center, Nashville, TN 37240, USA
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18
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Siakwah P, Torto O. Analysis of the Complexities in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Ghana's Bui Dam Experience. FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2022.734675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The quest to improve the mired development challenges of developing economies at a global scale have in recent years constituted policy imprimatur of development discourse, including the role of national and local resources. “Nexus” is an ultra-prioritized integrative global development approach. It denotes connection(s) linking two or more phenomena or variables. It is therefore not surprising to witness of-the-moment approaches such as the development-security nexus, migration-development-security nexus, and water-energy nexus, among others. Particularly relevant to this article is the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus as an integrative strategy to tackle prosaic issues of industrialization, poverty reduction, food security, and ecological sustainability. Adopting a qualitative methodological approach, the article studies the Bui dam to elucidate how the nexus operates in a complex and tense environment. The central argument is that most analyses of WEF interventions, particularly from the mainstream development literature rarely interrogate complex politics of interest amongst the trident sectors (water, energy, and food). The dominant studies tend to dwell on the technical or instrumental aspects. But an understanding of the complex relationships at play needs a critical approach. Our key argument is that the WEF nexus is prominently embedded in complex historical systems that tend to counter-balance the hyper-deductive projected costs and benefits. It is critical to view the relations amongst the WEF from a non-linear and realistic perspective. WEF as an embodiment of a complex system helps us to understand the multi-level, contradictory, and diverse interests at play within, between, and across the systems. Even though the nexus operations on an assumption of seamless collaborative relations among and between institutions, agencies, and actors in the policy and program implementation space, an analysis of the Bui project in Ghana shows tensions, side-lining, and inter-role conflicts among the actors, where the energy sector actors weigh power and resources over other institutions and actors in the space to drive the nexus.
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19
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Hydroclimatic Conditions, Wildfire, and Species Assemblages Influence Co-Occurrence of Bull Trout and Tailed Frogs in Northern Rocky Mountain Streams. WATER 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/w14071162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Although bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) have co-existed in forested Pacific Northwest streams for millennia, these iconic cold-water specialists are experiencing rapid environmental change caused by a warming climate and enhanced wildfire activity. Our goal was to inform future conservation by examining the habitat associations of each species and conditions that facilitate co-occupancy. We repurposed data from previous studies in the northern Rocky Mountains to assess the efficacy of bull trout electrofishing surveys for determining the occurrence of tailed frogs and the predictive capacity of habitat covariates derived from in-stream measurements and geospatial sources to model distributions of both species. Electrofishing reliably detected frog presence (89.2% rate). Both species were strongly associated with stream temperature and flow regime characteristics, and less responsive to riparian canopy cover, slope, and other salmonids. Tailed frogs were also sensitive to wildfire, with occupancy probability peaking around 80 years after a fire. Co-occupancy was most probable in locations with low-to-moderate frequencies of high winter flow events, few other salmonids, a low base-flow index, and intermediate years since fire. The distributions of these species appear to be sensitive to environmental conditions that are changing this century in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains. The amplification of climate-driven effects after wildfire may prove to be particularly problematic in the future. Habitat differences between these two species, considered to be headwater specialists, suggest that conservation measures designed for one may not fully protect the other. Additional studies involving future climate and wildfire scenarios are needed to assess broader conservation strategies and the potential to identify refuge streams where both species are likely to persist, or complementary streams where each could exist separately into the future.
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20
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Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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21
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Gill NS, Turner MG, Brown CD, Glassman SI, Haire SL, Hansen WD, Pansing ER, St Clair SB, Tomback DF. Limitations to Propagule Dispersal Will Constrain Postfire Recovery of Plants and Fungi in Western Coniferous Forests. Bioscience 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Many forest species are adapted to long-interval, high-severity fires, but the intervals between severe fires are decreasing with changes in climate, land use, and biological invasions. Although the effects of changing fire regimes on some important recovery processes have previously been considered, the consequences for the dispersal of propagules (plant seeds and fungal spores) in forest communities have not. We characterize three mechanisms by which changing fire regimes disrupt propagule dispersal in mesic temperate, boreal, and high-elevation forests: reduced abundance and altered spatial distributions of propagule source populations, less effective dispersal of propagules by wind, and altered behavior of animal dispersers and propagule predators. We consider how disruptions to propagule dispersal may interact with other factors that are also influenced by fire regime change, potentially increasing risk of forest conversion. Finally, we highlight urgent research topics regarding how dispersal limitation may shape twenty-first century forest recovery after stand-replacing fire.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan S Gill
- Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States
| | - Monica G Turner
- University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States
| | - Carissa D Brown
- Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
| | | | - Sandra L Haire
- Haire Laboratory for Landscape Ecology, Tucson, Arizona, United States
| | | | | | | | - Diana F Tomback
- University of Colorado Denver, Denver, Colorado, United States
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22
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Singh A, Baker PJ, Kasel S, Trouvé R, Stewart SB, Nitschke CR. The role of climatic variability on Eucalyptus regeneration in southeastern Australia. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
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23
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March‐Salas M, van Kleunen M, Fitze PS. Effects of intrinsic precipitation‐predictability on root traits, allocation strategies and the selective regimes acting on them. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Martí March‐Salas
- Goethe Univ. Frankfurt, Plant Evolutionary Ecology, Inst. of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity Frankfurt am Main Germany
- Dept of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN‐CSIC) Madrid Spain
- Dept of Biodiversity and Ecologic Restoration, Inst. Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE‐CSIC) Jaca Spain
| | - Mark van Kleunen
- Ecology, Dept of Biology, Univ. of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
- Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation, Taizhou Univ. Taizhou China
| | - Patrick S. Fitze
- Dept of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN‐CSIC) Madrid Spain
- Dept of Biodiversity and Ecologic Restoration, Inst. Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE‐CSIC) Jaca Spain
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24
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The aboveground and belowground growth characteristics of juvenile conifers in the southwestern United States. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
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25
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Crausbay SD, Sofaer HR, Cravens AE, Chaffin BC, Clifford KR, Gross JE, Knapp CN, Lawrence DJ, Magness DR, Miller-Rushing AJ, Schuurman GW, Stevens-Rumann CS. A Science Agenda to Inform Natural Resource Management Decisions in an Era of Ecological Transformation. Bioscience 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelley D Crausbay
- Conservation Science Partners, Fort Collins, Colorado, and is a consortium partner for the US Geological Survey's North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | - Helen R Sofaer
- US Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, Hawai'i, United States
| | - Amanda E Cravens
- US Geological Survey's Social and Economic Analysis Branch, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | | | - Katherine R Clifford
- US Geological Survey's Social and Economic Analysis Branch, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - John E Gross
- US National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | | | - David J Lawrence
- US National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - Dawn R Magness
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Soldotna, Alaska, United States
| | | | - Gregor W Schuurman
- US National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - Camille S Stevens-Rumann
- Forest and Rangeland Stewardship Department and assistant director of the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
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26
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Turner MG, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Hoecker TJ, Rammer W, Ratajczak Z, Westerling AL, Seidl R. The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Winslow D. Hansen
- Earth Institute Columbia University New York City New York 10025 USA
| | - Tyler J. Hoecker
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Werner Rammer
- School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506‐4901 USA
| | - A. Leroy Westerling
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute and School of Engineering University of California‐Merced Merced California 95343 USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park 83471 Berchtesgaden Germany
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27
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Paterson JE, Pulfer T, Horrigan E, Sukumar S, Vezina BI, Zimmerling R, Davy CM. Individual and synergistic effects of habitat loss and roads on reptile occupancy. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
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28
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Ramírez-Valiente JA, Solé-Medina A, Pyhäjärvi T, Savolainen O, Heer K, Opgenoorth L, Danusevicius D, Robledo-Arnuncio JJ. Adaptive responses to temperature and precipitation variation at the early-life stages of Pinus sylvestris. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2021; 232:1632-1647. [PMID: 34388269 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2021] [Accepted: 08/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Early-stage fitness variation has been seldom evaluated at broad scales in forest tree species, despite the long tradition of studying climate-driven intraspecific genetic variation. In this study, we evaluated the role of climate in driving patterns of population differentiation at early-life stages in Pinus sylvestris and explored the fitness and growth consequences of seed transfer within the species range. We monitored seedling emergence, survival and growth over a 2-yr period in a multi-site common garden experiment which included 18 European populations and spanned 25° in latitude and 1700 m in elevation. Climate-fitness functions showed that populations exhibited higher seedling survival and growth at temperatures similar to their home environment, which is consistent with local adaptation. Northern populations experienced lower survival and growth at warmer sites, contrary to previous studies on later life stages. Seed mass was higher in populations from warmer areas and was positively associated with survival and growth at more southern sites. Finally, we did not detect a survival-growth trade-off; on the contrary, bigger seedlings exhibited higher survival probabilities under most climatic conditions. In conclusion, our results reveal that contrasting temperature regimes have played an important role in driving the divergent evolution of P. sylvestris populations at early-life stages.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Alberto Ramírez-Valiente
- Department of Forest Ecology & Genetics, Forest Research Centre (INIA, CSIC), Ctra. de la Coruña km 7.5, Madrid, 28040, Spain
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre, CREAF, Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Aida Solé-Medina
- Department of Forest Ecology & Genetics, Forest Research Centre (INIA, CSIC), Ctra. de la Coruña km 7.5, Madrid, 28040, Spain
- Escuela Internacional de Doctorado, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933, Spain
| | - Tanja Pyhäjärvi
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu, FI-90014, Finland
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FI-00014, Finland
| | - Outi Savolainen
- Conservation Biology, Philipps Universität Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch Strasse 8, Marburg, 35043, Germany
| | - Katrin Heer
- Plant Ecology and Geobotany, Philipps Universität Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch Strasse 8, Marburg, 35043, Germany
| | - Lars Opgenoorth
- Plant Ecology and Geobotany, Philipps Universität Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch Strasse 8, Marburg, 35043, Germany
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland
| | - Darius Danusevicius
- Faculty of Forest Science and Evology, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentu str. 11, Akademija, Kaunas, LT-53361, Lithuania
| | - Juan José Robledo-Arnuncio
- Department of Forest Ecology & Genetics, Forest Research Centre (INIA, CSIC), Ctra. de la Coruña km 7.5, Madrid, 28040, Spain
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29
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Myers BJE, Weiskopf SR, Shiklomanov AN, Ferrier S, Weng E, Casey KA, Harfoot M, Jackson ST, Leidner AK, Lenton TM, Luikart G, Matsuda H, Pettorelli N, Rosa IMD, Ruane AC, Senay GB, Serbin SP, Tittensor DP, Beard TD. A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation. Bioscience 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bonnie J E Myers
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, United States
| | - Sarah R Weiskopf
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, United States
| | | | - Simon Ferrier
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Canberra, Australia
| | - Ensheng Weng
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, New York, United States
| | - Kimberly A Casey
- US Geological Survey's National Land Imaging Program, Reston, Virginia, United States
| | - Mike Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | | | - Allison K Leidner
- NASA Headquarters/Biological Diversity Program, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Timothy M Lenton
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, England, United Kingdom
| | - Gordon Luikart
- University of Montana Flathead Lake Biological Station, Polson, Montana, United States
| | | | - Nathalie Pettorelli
- Institute for Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, England, United Kingdom
| | - Isabel M D Rosa
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Wales, United Kingdom
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, United States
| | - Gabriel B Senay
- US Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation Science Center, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
| | - Shawn P Serbin
- Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York, United States
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - T Douglas Beard
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, United States
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Oldfather MF, Van Den Elzen CL, Heffernan PM, Emery NC. Dispersal evolution in temporally variable environments: implications for plant range dynamics. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2021; 108:1584-1594. [PMID: 34587290 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.1739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2021] [Revised: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Dispersal-the movement of an individual from the site of birth to a different site for reproduction-is an ecological and evolutionary driver of species ranges that shapes patterns of colonization, connectivity, gene flow, and adaptation. In plants, the traits that influence dispersal often vary within and among species, are heritable, and evolve in response to the fitness consequences of moving through heterogeneous landscapes. Spatial and temporal variation in the quality and quantity of habitat are important sources of selection on dispersal strategies across species ranges. While recent reviews have evaluated the interactions between spatial variation in habitat and dispersal dynamics, the extent to which geographic variation in temporal variability can also shape range-wide patterns in dispersal traits has not been synthesized. In this paper, we summarize key predictions from metapopulation models that evaluate how dispersal evolves in response to spatial and temporal habitat variability. Next, we compile empirical data that quantify temporal variability in plant demography and patterns of dispersal trait variation across species ranges to evaluate the hypothesis that higher temporal variability favors increased dispersal at plant range limits. We found some suggestive evidence supporting this hypothesis while more generally identifying a major gap in empirical work evaluating plant metapopulation dynamics across species ranges and geographic variation in dispersal traits. To address this gap, we propose several future research directions that would advance our understanding of the interplay between spatiotemporal variability and dispersal trait variation in shaping the dynamics of current and future species ranges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meagan F Oldfather
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | | | - Patrick M Heffernan
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Nancy C Emery
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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31
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Schlaepfer DR, Bradford JB, Lauenroth WK, Shriver RK. Understanding the future of big sagebrush regeneration: challenges of projecting complex ecological processes. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel R. Schlaepfer
- Southwest Biological Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Flagstaff Arizona 86001 USA
- Center for Adaptable Western Landscapes Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona 86011 USA
- Yale School of the Environment Yale University New Haven Connecticut 06511 USA
| | - John B. Bradford
- Southwest Biological Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Flagstaff Arizona 86001 USA
| | - William K. Lauenroth
- Yale School of the Environment Yale University New Haven Connecticut 06511 USA
- Department of Botany University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming 82071 USA
| | - Robert K. Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada‐Reno Reno Nevada 89557 USA
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32
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Shriver RK, Yackulic CB, Bell DM, Bradford JB. Quantifying the demographic vulnerabilities of dry woodlands to climate and competition using rangewide monitoring data. Ecology 2021; 102:e03425. [PMID: 34091890 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Revised: 02/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of tree species, impacting ecosystem structure and function. Yet, anticipating where this will occur is often hampered by a lack of understanding of how demographic rates, most notably recruitment, vary in response to climate and competition across a species range. Using large-scale monitoring data on two dry woodland tree species (Pinus edulis and Juniperus osteosperma), we develop an approach to infer recruitment, survival, and growth of both species across their range. In doing so, we account for ecological and statistical dependencies inherent in large-scale monitoring data. We find that drying and warming conditions generally lead to declines in recruitment and survival, but the strength of responses varied between species. These climate conditions point to geographic regions of high vulnerability for particular species, such as Pinus edulis in northern Arizona, where both survival and recruitment are low. Our approach provides a path forward for leveraging emerging large-scale monitoring and remotely sensed data to anticipate the impacts of global change on species distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert K Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, 89557, USA.,U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86001, USA
| | - Charles B Yackulic
- U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86001, USA
| | - David M Bell
- U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, Oregon, 97331, USA
| | - John B Bradford
- U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86001, USA
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33
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Fukushima K, Narukawa H, Palfalvi G, Hasebe M. A discordance of seasonally covarying cues uncovers misregulated phenotypes in the heterophyllous pitcher plant Cephalotus follicularis. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202568. [PMID: 33499794 PMCID: PMC7893253 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Organisms withstand normal ranges of environmental fluctuations by producing a set of phenotypes genetically programmed as a reaction norm; however, extreme conditions can expose a misregulation of phenotypes called a hidden reaction norm. Although an environment consists of multiple factors, how combinations of these factors influence a reaction norm is not well understood. To elucidate the combinatorial effects of environmental factors, we studied the leaf shape plasticity of the carnivorous pitcher plant Cephalotus follicularis. Clonally propagated plants were subjected to 12-week-long growth experiments in different conditions controlled by growth chambers. Here, we show that the dimorphic response of forming a photosynthetic flat leaf or an insect-trapping pitcher leaf is regulated by two covarying environmental cues: temperature and photoperiod. Even within the normal ranges of temperature and photoperiod, unusual combinations of the two induced the production of malformed leaves that were rarely observed under the environmentally typical combinations. We identified such cases in combinations of a summer temperature with a short-to-neutral day length, whose average frequency in the natural Cephalotus habitats corresponded to a once-in-a-lifetime event for this perennial species. Our results suggest that even if individual cues are within the range of natural fluctuations, a hidden reaction norm can be exposed under their discordant combinations. We anticipate that climate change may challenge organismal responses through not only extreme cues but also through uncommon combinations of benign cues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kenji Fukushima
- National Institute for Basic Biology, Okazaki 444-8585, Japan.,Department of Basic Biology, School of Life Science, SOKENDAI (Graduate University for Advanced Studies), Okazaki 444-8585, Japan.,Institute for Molecular Plant Physiology and Biophysics, University of Würzburg, Julius-von-Sachs Platz 2, 97082 Würzburg, Germany
| | - Hideki Narukawa
- National Institute for Basic Biology, Okazaki 444-8585, Japan
| | - Gergo Palfalvi
- National Institute for Basic Biology, Okazaki 444-8585, Japan.,Department of Basic Biology, School of Life Science, SOKENDAI (Graduate University for Advanced Studies), Okazaki 444-8585, Japan
| | - Mitsuyasu Hasebe
- National Institute for Basic Biology, Okazaki 444-8585, Japan.,Department of Basic Biology, School of Life Science, SOKENDAI (Graduate University for Advanced Studies), Okazaki 444-8585, Japan
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Londe DW, Elmore RD, Davis CA, Fuhlendorf SD, Hovick TJ, Luttbeg B, Rutledge J. Weather Influences Multiple Components of Greater Prairie‐Chicken Reproduction. J Wildl Manage 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- David W. Londe
- Department of Natural Resources Ecology and Management Oklahoma State University 008c Ag Hall Stillwater OK 74078 USA
| | - R. Dwayne Elmore
- Department of Natural Resources Ecology and Management Oklahoma State University 008c Ag Hall Stillwater OK 74078 USA
| | - Craig A. Davis
- Department of Natural Resources Ecology and Management Oklahoma State University 008c Ag Hall Stillwater OK 74078 USA
| | - Samuel D. Fuhlendorf
- Department of Natural Resources Ecology and Management Oklahoma State University 008c Ag Hall Stillwater OK 74078 USA
| | - Torre J. Hovick
- Range Science North Dakota State University 201A Morrill Hall Fargo ND 58108 USA
| | - Barney Luttbeg
- Department of Integrative Biology Oklahoma State University 501 Life Science West Stillwater OK 74078 USA
| | - Jimmy Rutledge
- El Coyote Ranch P.O. Box 392 Carrizo Springs TX 78834 USA
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35
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Shepard ID, Wissinger SA, Greig HS. Elevation alters outcome of competition between resident and range-shifting species. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:270-281. [PMID: 33064868 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2020] [Revised: 09/24/2020] [Accepted: 10/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Species' geographic range shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations are among the most frequently reported consequences of climate change. However, the role of species interactions in setting range margins remains poorly understood. We used cage experiments in ponds to test competing hypotheses about the role of abiotic and biotic mechanisms for structuring range boundaries of an upslope range-shifting caddisfly Limnephilus picturatus. We found that competition with a ubiquitous species Limnephilus externus significantly decreased L. picturatus survival and emergence at subalpine elevations supporting the notion that species interactions play a critical role in determining upslope range limits. However, without competitors, L. picturatus survival was greater at high-elevation than low-elevation sites. This was contrary to decreases in body mass (a proxy for fecundity) with elevation regardless of the presence of competitors. We ultimately show that species interactions can be important for setting upslope range margins. Yet, our results also highlight the complications in defining what may be abiotically stressful for this species and the importance of considering multiple demographic variables. Understanding how species ranges will respond in a changing climate will require quantifying species interactions and how they are influenced by the abiotic context in which they play out.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaac D Shepard
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
- Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, USA
| | - Scott A Wissinger
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, USA
- Biology and Environmental Science Departments, Allegheny College, Meadville, PA, USA
| | - Hamish S Greig
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
- Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, USA
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36
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A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 5:17-26. [PMID: 33288870 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.
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37
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Gao Y, Harris AJ, Li H, Gao X. Hybrid Speciation and Introgression Both Underlie the Genetic Structures and Evolutionary Relationships of Three Morphologically Distinct Species of Lilium (Liliaceae) Forming a Hybrid Zone Along an Elevational Gradient. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2020; 11:576407. [PMID: 33365039 PMCID: PMC7750405 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2020.576407] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2020] [Accepted: 11/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
We studied hybrid interactions of Lilium meleagrinum, Lilium gongshanense, and Lilium saluenense using an integrative approach combining population genetics, fieldwork, and phenological research. These three species occur along an elevational gradient, with L. meleagrinum occurring at lower elevations, L. saluenense at higher elevations, and L. gongshanense between them. The species show strong morphological differentiation despite there being no clear environmental barriers to gene flow among them. Lilium gongshanense is likely to have a hybrid origin based on our prior work, but its progenitors remain uncertain. We sought to determine whether gene flow occurs among these three parapatric species, and, if so, whether L. gongshanense is a hybrid of L. meleagrinum and/or L. saluenense. We analyzed data from multiple chloroplast genes and spacers, nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS), and 18 nuclear Expressed Sequence Tag-Simple Sequence Repeat (EST-SSR) microsatellites for accessions of the three species representing dense population-level sampling. We also inferred phenology by examining species in the field and using herbarium specimens. We found that there are only two types of chloroplast genomes shared among the three species and that L. gongshanense forms two distinct groups with closest links to other species of Lilium based on ITS. Taken together, L. gongshanense is unlikely to be a hybrid species resulting from a cross between L. meleagrinum and L. saluenense, but gene flow is occurring among the three species. The gene flow is likely to be rare according to evidence from all molecular datasets, and this is corroborated by detection of only one putative hybrid individual in the field and asynchronous phenology. We suspect that the rarity of hybridization events among the species facilitates their continued genetic separation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yundong Gao
- CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
| | - AJ Harris
- Key Laboratory of Plant Resources Conservation and Sustainable Utilization, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Huaicheng Li
- CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
- Institut für Biologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Xinfen Gao
- CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
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Species, Climatypes, Climate Change, and Forest Health: A Conversion of Science to Practice for Inland Northwest (USA) Forests. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11121237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Research Highlights: This paper integrates disparate research results pertaining to climate change impacts to 12 co-occurring forest tree species and their climatypes such that management options for the ecosystem as a whole become discernible. Background and Objectives: The ecosystem under analysis is the Thuja-Tsuga forest ecosystem, occupying ca. 121,500 km2 in a largely mountainous setting in the interior northwest, USA. Our goal is to present land management options tied directly to climate-change in a straightforward framework for both the current and future generations. Materials and Methods: By merging synecological and genecological concepts in a climatic framework, we simplify complex interactions in a manner that relates directly to climate change impacts. Species and climatype distributions are redefined in terms of mean annual temperature and elevation of forested landscapes. Results: For each 2 °C increase in temperature, plant associations should shift upwards ca. 400 m, provided precipitation remains at or near contemporary levels, which, for this ecosystem, vary between 300 mm and 1450 mm. Management guidelines are developed for (a) selecting climatypes of the species suited to the climate at the leading edge of the migration front, (b) anticipating decline at the trailing edge, and (c) converting climatypes in areas where species should persist. Conclusions: Our results can provide robust strategies for adapting forest management to the effects of climate change, but their effectiveness is dependent on the implementation of global warming mitigation actions.
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A climatic dipole drives short- and long-term patterns of postfire forest recovery in the western United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:29730-29737. [PMID: 33168732 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007434117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Researchers are increasingly examining patterns and drivers of postfire forest recovery amid growing concern that climate change and intensifying fires will trigger ecosystem transformations. Diminished seed availability and postfire drought have emerged as key constraints on conifer recruitment. However, the spatial and temporal extent to which recurring modes of climatic variability shape patterns of postfire recovery remain largely unexplored. Here, we identify a north-south dipole in annual climatic moisture deficit anomalies across the Interior West of the US and characterize its influence on forest recovery from fire. We use annually resolved establishment models from dendrochronological records to correlate this climatic dipole with short-term postfire juvenile recruitment. We also examine longer-term recovery trajectories using Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 989 burned plots. We show that annual postfire ponderosa pine recruitment probabilities in the northern Rocky Mountains (NR) and the southwestern US (SW) track the strength of the dipole, while declining overall due to increasing aridity. This indicates that divergent recovery trajectories may be triggered concurrently across large spatial scales: favorable conditions in the SW can correspond to drought in the NR that inhibits ponderosa pine establishment, and vice versa. The imprint of this climatic dipole is manifest for years postfire, as evidenced by dampened long-term likelihoods of juvenile ponderosa pine presence in areas that experienced postfire drought. These findings underscore the importance of climatic variability at multiple spatiotemporal scales in driving cross-regional patterns of forest recovery and have implications for understanding ecosystem transformations and species range dynamics under global change.
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40
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Jones AR, Jessop TS, Ariefiandy A, Brook BW, Brown SC, Ciofi C, Benu YJ, Purwandana D, Sitorus T, Wigley TML, Fordham DA. Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:10492-10507. [PMID: 33072275 PMCID: PMC7548163 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2020] [Accepted: 07/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island‐endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea‐level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species’ future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range‐wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%–87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%–97% and declines of 27%–99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands’ status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice R Jones
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia.,Department for Environment and Water Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Tim S Jessop
- Centre for Integrative Ecology School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Waurn Ponds Vic. Australia.,Komodo Survival Program Bali Indonesia
| | | | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart Tas Australia
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Claudio Ciofi
- Komodo Survival Program Bali Indonesia.,Department of Biology University of Florence Sesto Fiorentino Italy
| | | | | | - Tamen Sitorus
- Balai Besar Konservasi Sumber Daya Alam Kupang Indonesia
| | - Tom M L Wigley
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia.,Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
| | - Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
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41
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Zanella A, Ponge JF, Andreetta A, Aubert M, Bernier N, Bonifacio E, Bonneval K, Bolzonella C, Chertov O, Costantini EAC, De Nobili M, Fusaro S, Giannini R, Junod P, Katzensteiner K, Kwiatkowsk-Malina J, Menardi R, Mo L, Mohammad S, Schnitzler A, Sofo A, Tatti D, Hager H. Combined forest and soil management after a catastrophic event. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 2020; 17:2459-2484. [PMID: 33052199 PMCID: PMC7545024 DOI: 10.1007/s11629-019-5890-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Revised: 04/19/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
At the end of October 2018, a storm of unprecedented strength severely damaged the forests of the eastern sector of the Italian Alps. The affected forest area covers 42,500 ha. The president of one of the damaged regions asked for help from the University of Padua. After eight months of discussion, the authors of this article wrote a consensus text. The sometimes asper debate brought to light some crucial aspects: 1) even experienced specialists may have various opinions based on scientific knowledge that lead to conflicting proposals for action. For some of them there is evidence that to restore a destroyed natural environment it is more judicious to do nothing; 2) the soil corresponds to a living structure and every ecosystem's management should be based on it; 3) faced with a catastrophe, people and politicians find themselves unarmed, also because they rarely have the scientific background to understand natural processes. Yet politicians are the only persons who make the key decisions that drive the economy in play and therefore determine the near future of our planet. This article is an attempt to respond directly to a governor with a degree in animal production science, who formally and prudently asked a university department called "Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry" for help before taking decisions; 4) the authors also propose an artistic interpretation of facts (uncontrolled storm) and conclusions (listen to the soil). Briefly, the authors identify the soil as an indispensable source for the renewal of the destroyed forest, give indications on how to prepare a map of the soils of the damaged region, and suggest to anchor on this soil map a series of silvicultural and soil management actions that will promote the soil conservation and the faster recovery of the natural dynamic stability and resilience. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/s11629-019-5890-0 and is accessible for authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Augusto Zanella
- Dipartimento TESAF, Università degli Studi di Padova, Viale dell’Università 16, 35020 Padova, Legnaro (PD), Italy
| | - Jean-François Ponge
- Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UMR 7179, 4 avenue du Petit Château, 91800 Brunoy, France
| | - Anna Andreetta
- Università degli Studi di Firenze Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra (DST) Piazzale delle Cascine, 15 - 50144 Firenze, Italy
| | - Michael Aubert
- URA IRSTEA/EA 1293 — FR CNRS 3730 SCALE, UFR Sciences et Techniques, Université de Rouen, 76821 Mont Saint Aignan cedex, France
| | - Nicolas Bernier
- Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UMR 7179, 4 avenue du Petit Château, 91800 Brunoy, France
| | - Eleonora Bonifacio
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie, Università degli Studi di Torino, Forestali e Alimentari, Largo P. Braccini 2, 10095 Grugliasco (TO), Italy
| | - Karine Bonneval
- École supérieure des Arts Décoratifs de Strasbourg, 67082 Strasbourg, France
| | - Cristian Bolzonella
- Dipartimento TESAF, Università degli Studi di Padova, Viale dell’Università 16, 35020 Padova, Legnaro (PD), Italy
| | - Oleg Chertov
- Prof. Emeritus, Dr. habil. Ecology, Albert Schweitzer Str. 20, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Edoardo A. C. Costantini
- Accademia dei Georgofili, Logge degli Uffizi of Florence, 50122 Florence, Italy
- Accademia Nazionale di Agricoltura, Via Castiglione, 11, 40124 Bologna BO, Italy
| | - Maria De Nobili
- Department of Agricultural, Food, Environmental and Animal Sciences, University of Udine, via delle Scienze 209, 33100 Udine, Italy
| | - Silvia Fusaro
- Dipartimento DAFNAE, Università degli Studi di Padova, Viale dell’Università 16, 35020 Padova, Legnaro (PD), Italy
| | - Raffaello Giannini
- Accademia italiana di scienze forestali, Piazza Tommaso Alva Edison, 11, 50133 Firenze, Italy
| | - Pascal Junod
- Service de la faune, des forêts et de la nature (SFFN) Route des Chéseaux 9, 2017 Boudry, Switzerland
| | - Klaus Katzensteiner
- Institute of Forest Ecology, Dept. of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordanstr. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Jolantha Kwiatkowsk-Malina
- Faculty of Geodesy and Cartography, Department of Spatial Planning and Environmental Sciences, Warsaw University of Technology, Politechniki 1 Sq., 00-661, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Roberto Menardi
- Centro Studi Ambiente Alpino, Università degli Studi di Padova, Via F. Ossi, 41, 32046 San Vito di Cadore (BL), Italy
| | - Lingzi Mo
- School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006 P. R. China
| | - Safwan Mohammad
- Institute of Land Use, Technology and Regional Development- Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management-University of Debrecen, 4032 Debrecen, Böszörményi út 138, Hungary
| | | | - Adriano Sofo
- Department of European and Mediterranean Cultures: Architecture, Environment, Cultural Heritage (DiCEM)], Università degli Studi della Basilicata, Via Lanera 20, 75100 Matera, Italy
| | - Dylan Tatti
- Haute école des sciences agronomiques, forestières et alimentaires HAFL, Länggasse 85, 3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
| | - Herbert Hager
- Institute of Forest Ecology, Dept. of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordanstr. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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42
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Fordham DA, Jackson ST, Brown SC, Huntley B, Brook BW, Dahl-Jensen D, Gilbert MTP, Otto-Bliesner BL, Svensson A, Theodoridis S, Wilmshurst JM, Buettel JC, Canteri E, McDowell M, Orlando L, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues-Bravo D. Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change. Science 2020; 369:369/6507/eabc5654. [PMID: 32855310 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. .,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Brian Huntley
- Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Bette L Otto-Bliesner
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Anders Svensson
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Spyros Theodoridis
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Janet M Wilmshurst
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.,School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Elisabetta Canteri
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Matthew McDowell
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Ludovic Orlando
- Laboratoire d'Anthropobiologie Moléculaire et d'Imagerie de Synthèse UMR 5288, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier, France.,Section for GeoGenetics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Julia Pilowsky
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.,Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - David Nogues-Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
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43
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Harris LB, Taylor AH. Rain‐shadow forest margins resilient to low‐severity fire and climate change but not high‐severity fire. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Lucas B. Harris
- Department of Geography The Pennsylvania State University 302 Walker Building University Park Pennsylvania16802USA
| | - Alan H. Taylor
- Department of Geography Earth and Environmental Systems Institute The Pennsylvania State University 302 Walker Building University Park Pennsylvania16802USA
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44
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Carscadden KA, Emery NC, Arnillas CA, Cadotte MW, Afkhami ME, Gravel D, Livingstone SW, Wiens JJ. Niche Breadth: Causes and Consequences for Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation. QUARTERLY REVIEW OF BIOLOGY 2020. [DOI: 10.1086/710388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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45
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Post-Wildfire Regeneration in a Sky-Island Mixed- Conifer Ecosystem of the North American Great Basin. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11090900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Information on wildfire impacts and ecosystem responses is relatively sparse in the Great Basin of North America, where subalpine ecosystems are generally dominated by five-needle pines. We analyzed existing vegetation, with an emphasis on regeneration following the year 2000 Phillips Ranch Fire, at a sky-island site in the Snake Range of eastern Nevada. Our main objective was to compare bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva; PILO) post-fire establishment and survival to that of the co-occurring dominant conifers limber pine (Pinus flexilis; PIFL) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii; PIEN) in connection with site characteristics. Field data were collected in 40 circular 0.1 ha plots (17.8 m radius) randomly located using GIS so that half of them were inside (“burned”) and half were outside (“unburned”) the 2000 fire boundary. While evidence of previous burns was also found, we focused on impacts from the Phillips Ranch Fire. Mean total basal area, including live and dead stems, was not significantly different between plots inside the burn and plots outside the fire perimeter, but the live basal area was significantly less in the former than in the latter. Wildfire impacts did not limit regeneration, and indeed bristlecone seedlings and saplings were more abundant in plots inside the 2000 fire perimeter than in those outside of it. PILO regeneration, especially saplings, was more abundant than PIFL and PCEN combined, indicating that PILO can competitively regenerate under modern climatic conditions. Surviving PILO regeneration in burned plots was also taller than that of PIFL. By contrast, PCEN was nearly absent in the plots that had been impacted by fire. Additional research should explicitly address how climatic changes and disturbance processes may interact in shaping future vegetation dynamics.
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46
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47
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Cochrane JA. Thermal Requirements Underpinning Germination Allude to Risk of Species Decline from Climate Warming. PLANTS 2020; 9:plants9060796. [PMID: 32630588 PMCID: PMC7355932 DOI: 10.3390/plants9060796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2020] [Revised: 06/18/2020] [Accepted: 06/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The storage of seeds is a commonly used means of preserving plant genetic diversity in the face of rising threats such as climate change. Here, the findings of research from the past decade into thermal requirements for germination are synthesised for more than 100 plant species from southern Western Australia. This global biodiversity hotspot is predicted to suffer major plant collapse under forecast climate change. A temperature gradient plate was used to assess the thermal requirements underpinning seed germination in both commonly occurring and geographically restricted species. The results suggest that the local climate of the seed source sites does not drive seed responses, neither is it indicative of temperatures for optimal germination. The low diurnal phase of the temperature regime provided the most significant impact on germination timing. Several species germinated optimally at mean temperatures below or close to current wet quarter temperatures, and more than 40% of species were likely to be impacted in the future, with germination occurring under supra-optimal temperature conditions. This research highlights both species vulnerability and resilience to a warming climate during the regeneration phase of the life cycle and provides vital information for those aiming to manage, conserve and restore this regional flora.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Anne Cochrane
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Western Australia 6983, Australia; ; Tel.: +61-429-698-644
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, College of Science, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
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48
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Drought Stress and Livelihood Response Based on Evidence from the Koshi River Basin in Nepal: Modeling and Applications. WATER 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/w12061610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Drought vulnerability analysis at the household level can help people identify livelihood constrains and potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study used meteorological and household level data which were collected from three different districts (Kavrepalanchowk, Sindhuli, and Saptari) in the Koshi River Basin of Nepal to conduct a drought vulnerability analysis. We developed a model for assessing drought vulnerability of rural households based on three critical components, i.e., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results revealed that Saptari (drought vulnerability index, 0.053) showed greater vulnerability to drought disasters than Kavrepalanchowk (0.014) and Sindhuli (0.007). The most vulnerable district (Saptari) showed the highest exposure, the highest sensitivity, and the highest adaptive capacity. Kavrepalanchowk had the middle drought vulnerability index with middle exposure, low sensitivity, and middle adaptive capacity. Sindhuli had the lowest vulnerability with the lowest exposure, the lowest sensitivity, and the lowest adaptive capacity. On the basis of the results of the vulnerability assessment, this paper constructed livelihood adaptation strategies from the perspectives of households, communities, and the government. Many households in Kavrepalanchowk and Sindhuli significantly depend on agriculture as their main source of income. They need to implement some strategies to diversify their sources of income. In addition, the most important livelihood adaptation strategy for Saptari is improving water conservancy facilities to facilitate the allocation of water.
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49
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Solé-Medina A, Heer K, Opgenoorth L, Kaldewey P, Danusevicius D, Notivol E, Robledo-Arnuncio JJ, Ramírez-Valiente JA. Genetic variation in early fitness traits across European populations of silver birch ( Betula pendula). AOB PLANTS 2020; 12:plaa019. [PMID: 32665825 PMCID: PMC7320878 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plaa019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2019] [Accepted: 05/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Given that the ecological niche of tree species is typically narrower for earlier life stages, intraspecific genetic variation at early fitness traits may greatly influence the adaptive response of tree populations to changing environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluated genetic variation in early fitness traits among 12 populations of Betula pendula from a wide latitudinal range in Europe (41-55°N). We first conducted a chamber experiment to test for population differences in germination and the effect of pre-chilling treatment on seed dormancy release. We then established three common gardens spread across the species latitudinal range in order to evaluate levels of quantitative genetic variation and genotype-by-environment interaction at different early life traits. Our results showed significant variation in chamber germination rates among populations (0-60 %), with southern populations exhibiting lower germination. Pre-chilling treatments did not generally improve germination success. Population seedling emergence rates in the field were correlated with chamber germination rates, though being an order of magnitude lower, with an average ranging from 0 to 1.3 % across gardens. Highly significant variation was found in field emergence rates among populations, and between seed-crop years within populations, but not among families within populations. Populations differed in seedling height, diameter, slenderness and budburst date, with significant among-family variation. Population latitude was positively associated with chamber germination rate and with seedling emergence rate in one of the central field sites. Overall, genetic, environmental and demographic factors seem to influence the observed high levels of variation in early fitness traits among B. pendula populations. Our results suggest limited regeneration capacity for the study species under drier conditions, but further field trials with sufficient replication over environments and seed crops will improve our understanding of its vulnerability to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aida Solé-Medina
- Department of Forest Ecology & Genetics, INIA-CIFOR, Madrid, Spain
- Escuela Internacional de Doctorado, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Spain
- Corresponding author’s e-mail address:
| | - Katrin Heer
- Conservation Biology, Philipps Universität Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Lars Opgenoorth
- Department of Ecology, Philipps Universität Marburg, Marburg, Germany
- Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Phillip Kaldewey
- Conservation Biology, Philipps Universität Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Darius Danusevicius
- Faculty of Forest Science and Ecology, Vytautas Magnus University, Akademija, Kaunas, Lithuania
| | - Eduardo Notivol
- Unidad de Recursos Forestales, CITA, Avda. Montañana 930, Zaragoza, Spain
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50
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Kling MM, Auer SL, Comer PJ, Ackerly DD, Hamilton H. Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2798-2813. [PMID: 31960540 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.
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