Anthropogenic and environmental drivers of modern range loss in large mammals

Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians

Assessing the extinction risk of species based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (RL) is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource demanding, however, and requires continuous updating, which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the RL. Automatic methods, such as comparative analyses used to predict species RL category, can be an efficient alternative to keep assessments up to date. Using amphibians as a study group, we predicted which species are more likely to change their RL category and thus should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species biological traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of RL category. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN RL category for each species by combining 4 different model algorithms: cumulative link models, phylogenetic generalized least squares, random forests, and neural networks. By comparing RL categories with the ensemble prediction and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessment based on the mismatch between predicted and observed values. The most important predicting variables across models were species' range size and spatial configuration of the range, biological traits, climate change, and land-use change. We compared our proposed prioritization index and the predicted RL changes with independent IUCN RL reassessments and found high performance of both the prioritization and the predicted directionality of changes in RL categories. Ensemble modeling of RL category is a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for models' uncertainty. This approach is broadly applicable to all taxa on the IUCN RL and to regional and national assessments and may improve allocation of the limited human and economic resources available to maintain an up-to-date IUCN RL.

Broad-scale impacts of coastal mega-infrastructure project on obligatory inshore delphinids: A cautionary tale from Hong Kong

Inshore marine habitats experience considerable anthropogenic pressure, as this is where many adverse effects of human activities concentrate. In the rapidly-changing seascape of the Anthropocene, Hong Kong waters at the heart of world's fastest developing coastal region can serve as a preview-window into coastal seas of the future, with ever-growing anthropogenic footprint. Here, we quantify how large-scale coastal infrastructure projects can affect obligatory inshore cetaceans, bringing about population-level consequences that may compromise their long-term demographic viability. As a case in point, we look at the construction of world's longest sea crossing system and broad-scale demographic, social and spatial responses it has caused in a shallow-water delphinid, the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis). Soon after the infrastructure project began, dolphins markedly altered their home range near construction sites such that these waters no longer functioned as dolphin core areas despite the apparent presence of prey, indicating that anthropogenic impacts outweighed foraging benefits. The contraction of key habitats has in turn led individuals to interact over spatially more constricted area, reshaping their group dynamics and social network. Although there was no apparent decline in dolphin numbers that could be detected with mark-recapture estimates, adult survival rates decreased drastically from 0.960 to 0.904, the lowest estimate for these animals anywhere across the region to date, notably below the previously estimated demographic threshold of their long-term persistence (0.955). It is apparent that during an advanced stage of this coastal infrastructure project, dolphins were under a major anthropogenic pressure that, if sustained, could be detrimental to their long-term persistence as a viable demographic unit. As effective conservation of species and habitats depends on informed management decisions, this study offers a valuable lesson in environmental risk assessment, underscoring the implications of human-induced rapid environmental change on obligatory inshore delphinids-sentinels of coastal habitats that are increasingly degraded in fast-changing coastal seas.

Threat of mining to African great apes

The rapid growth of clean energy technologies is driving a rising demand for critical minerals. In 2022 at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15), seven major economies formed an alliance to enhance the sustainability of mining these essential decarbonization minerals. However, there is a scarcity of studies assessing the threat of mining to global biodiversity. By integrating a global mining dataset with great ape density distribution, we estimated the number of African great apes that spatially coincided with industrial mining projects. We show that up to one-third of Africa's great ape population faces mining-related risks. In West Africa in particular, numerous mining areas overlap with fragmented ape habitats, often in high-density ape regions. For 97% of mining areas, no ape survey data are available, underscoring the importance of increased accessibility to environmental data within the mining sector to facilitate research into the complex interactions between mining, climate, biodiversity, and sustainability.

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

Evolutionary history of the extinct wolf population from France in the context of global phylogeographic changes throughout the Holocene

Phylogeographic patterns in large mammals result from natural environmental factors and anthropogenic effects, which in some cases include domestication. The grey wolf was once widely distributed across the Holarctic, but experienced phylogeographic shifts and demographic declines during the Holocene. In the 19th-20th centuries, the species became extirpated from large parts of Europe due to direct extermination and habitat loss. We reconstructed the evolutionary history of the extinct Western European wolves based on the mitogenomic composition of 78 samples from France (Neolithic-20th century) in the context of other populations of wolves and dogs worldwide. We found a close genetic similarity of French wolves from ancient, medieval and recent populations, which suggests the long-term continuity of maternal lineages. MtDNA haplotypes of the French wolves showed large diversity and fell into two main haplogroups of modern Holarctic wolves. Our worldwide phylogeographic analysis indicated that haplogroup W1, which includes wolves from Eurasia and North America, originated in Northern Siberia. Haplogroup W2, which includes only European wolves, originated in Europe ~35 kya and its frequency was reduced during the Holocene due to an expansion of haplogroup W1 from the east. Moreover, we found that dog haplogroup D, currently restricted to Europe and the Middle East, was nested within the wolf haplogroup W2. This suggests European origin of haplogroup D, probably as a result of an ancient introgression from European wolves. Our results highlight the dynamic evolutionary history of European wolves during the Holocene, with a partial lineage replacement and introgressive hybridization with local dog populations.

Genetic and demographic consequences of range contraction patterns during biological annihilation

Species range contractions both contribute to, and result from, biological annihilation, yet do not receive the same attention as extinctions. Range contractions can lead to marked impacts on populations but are usually characterized only by reduction in extent of range. For effective conservation, it is critical to recognize that not all range contractions are the same. We propose three distinct patterns of range contraction: shrinkage, amputation, and fragmentation. We tested the impact of these patterns on populations of a generalist species using forward-time simulations. All three patterns caused 86-88% reduction in population abundance and significantly increased average relatedness, with differing patterns in declines of nucleotide diversity relative to the contraction pattern. The fragmentation pattern resulted in the strongest effects on post-contraction genetic diversity and structure. Defining and quantifying range contraction patterns and their consequences for Earth's biodiversity would provide useful and necessary information to combat biological annihilation.

Effects of climate and human activity on the current distribution of amphibians in China

In China, as elsewhere, amphibians are highly endangered. Anthropogenic environmental change has affected the distribution and population dynamics of species, and species distributions at a broad scale are strongly driven by climate and species' ability to disperse. Yet, current knowledge remains limited on how widespread human activity affects the distribution patterns of amphibians in China and whether this effect extends beyond climate. We compiled a relatively comprehensive database on the distribution of 196 amphibian species in China from the literature, public databases, and field data. We obtained 25,826 records on almost 50% of known species in China. To test how environmental factors and human activities influence the current distribution of amphibians (1960-1990), we used range filling, which is species realized ranges relative to their potential climate distribution. We used all species occurrence records to represent realized range and niche models to predict potential distribution range. To reduce uncertainty, we used 3 regression methods (beta regression, generalized boosted regression models, and random forest) to test the associations of species range filling with human activity, climate, topography, and range size. The results of the 3 approaches were consistent. At the species level, mean annual precipitation (climate) had the most effect on spatial distribution pattern of amphibians in China, followed by range size. Human activity ranked last. At the spatial level, mean annual precipitation remained the most important factor. Regions in southeastern of China that are currently moist supported the highest amphibian diversity, but were predicted to experience a decline in precipitation under climate change scenarios. Consequently, the distributions of amphibians will likely shift to the northwest in the future, which could affect future conservation efforts.

Trapping mortality accelerates the decline of the fisher, an endangered mesocarnivore, in British Columbia, Canada

Understanding the environmental, demographic, and anthropogenic factors driving the population dynamics of endangered species is critical to effective conservation. Habitat loss, fragmentation, and trapping all have been linked to declines in the endangered population of fishers Pekania pennanti in central British Columbia (BC), Canada, hereafter referred to as the Columbian population. Although the commercial trapping season for fishers has recently been closed in central BC, the animals are still taken in traps legally set for other furbearer species, and with this continuing source of mortality, the sustainability of this vulnerable population remains unclear. We constructed population viability models in the program Vortex to evaluate the specific impacts that trapping mortality would have on Columbian fisher population persistence under different trapping scenarios. Our modeling predicted that current mortality sources, including deaths in traps set for other species, will cause the population to disappear within 11 yr. When fur harvest mortality was removed from our modeling, the Columbian population appeared unlikely to persist beyond 37 yr. Our analysis provides evidence that along with the continued trapping closure for fishers in central BC, it is likely necessary to modify trapping regulations and methods (including restricting the use of kill traps) for other furbearers within Columbian fisher range to sufficiently reduce mortality from bycatch and help to avoid extirpation of the population in the near future. Additionally, identifying areas where fishers are actively breeding and protecting these habitats from further disturbances will be needed to increase survival and reproductive rates to levels high enough to reverse population declines over the longer term.

Demography and evolutionary history of grey wolf populations around the Bering Strait

Glacial and interglacial periods throughout the Pleistocene have been substantial drivers of change in species distributions. Earlier analyses suggested that modern grey wolves (Canis lupus) trace their origin to a single Late Pleistocene Beringian population that expanded east and westwards, starting c. 25,000 years ago (ya). Here, we examined the demographic and phylogeographic histories of extant populations around the Bering Strait with wolves from two inland regions of the Russian Far East (RFE) and one coastal and two inland regions of North‐western North America (NNA), genotyped for 91,327 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Our results indicated that RFE and NNA wolves had a common ancestry until c. 34,400 ya, suggesting that these populations started to diverge before the previously proposed expansion out of Beringia. Coastal and inland NNA populations diverged c. 16,000 ya, concordant with the minimum proposed date for the ecological viability of the migration route along the Pacific Northwest coast. Demographic reconstructions for inland RFE and NNA populations reveal spatial and temporal synchrony, with large historical effective population sizes that declined throughout the Pleistocene, possibly reflecting the influence of broadscale climatic changes across continents. In contrast, coastal NNA wolves displayed a consistently lower effective population size than the inland populations. Differences between the demographic history of inland and coastal wolves may have been driven by multiple ecological factors, including historical gene flow patterns, natural landscape fragmentation, and more recent anthropogenic disturbance.

Male mastodon landscape use changed with maturation (late Pleistocene, North America)

Fossil remains usually reveal little about lifetime landscape use beyond place of death, but ever-growing tusks of American mastodons (Mammut americanum) record this fundamental aspect of paleobiology. Using oxygen and strontium isotopes from a serially sampled male mastodon tusk, we reconstruct changing patterns of landscape use during his life. We find clear shifts in landscape use during adolescence and following maturation to adulthood, including increased monthly movements and development of a summer-only range and mating ground. The mastodon died in his inferred summer mating ground, far from landscapes used during other seasons. Mastodons had long gestation times, and late Pleistocene populations lived in harsh, rapidly changing environments. Seasonal landscape use and migration were likely critical for maximizing mastodon reproductive success.

Under harsh Pleistocene climates, migration and other forms of seasonally patterned landscape use were likely critical for reproductive success of mastodons (Mammut americanum) and other megafauna. However, little is known about how their geographic ranges and mobility fluctuated seasonally or changed with sexual maturity. We used a spatially explicit movement model that coupled strontium and oxygen isotopes from two serially sampled intervals (5+ adolescent years and 3+ adult years) in a male mastodon tusk to test for changes in landscape use associated with maturation and reproductive phenology. The mastodon’s early adolescent home range was geographically restricted, with no evidence of seasonal preferences. Following inferred separation from the matriarchal herd (starting age 12 y), the adolescent male’s mobility increased as landscape use expanded away from his natal home range (likely central Indiana). As an adult, the mastodon’s monthly movements increased further. Landscape use also became seasonally structured, with some areas, including northeast Indiana, used only during the inferred mastodon mating season (spring/summer). The mastodon died in this area (>150 km from his core, nonsummer range) after sustaining a craniofacial injury consistent with a fatal blow from a competing male’s tusk during a battle over access to mates. Northeast Indiana was likely a preferred mating area for this individual and may have been regionally significant for late Pleistocene mastodons. Similarities between mammutids and elephantids in herd structure, tusk dimorphism, tusk function, and the geographic component of male maturation indicate that these traits were likely inherited from a common ancestor.

Linking climate niches across seasons to assess population vulnerability in a migratory bird

Global loss of biodiversity has placed new urgency on the need to understand factors regulating species response to rapid environmental change. While specialists are often less resilient to rapid environmental change than generalists, species-level analyses may obscure the extent of specialization when locally adapted populations vary in climate tolerances. Until recently, quantification of the degree of climate specialization in migratory birds below the species level was hindered by a lack of genomic and tracking information, but recent technological advances have helped to overcome these barriers. Here we take a genome-wide genetic approach to mapping population-specific migratory routes and quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct populations of a migratory bird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), which exhibits variation in the severity of population declines across its breeding range. While our sample size is restricted to the number of genetically distinct populations within the species, our results support the idea that locally adapted populations of the willow flycatcher with narrow climatic niches across seasons are already federally listed as endangered or in steep decline, while populations with broader climatic niches have remained stable in recent decades. Overall, this work highlights the value of quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct groups across time and space when attempting to understand the factors that facilitate or constrain the response of locally adapted populations to rapid environmental change.

Using the IUCN Red List to map threats to terrestrial vertebrates at global scale

The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List on threats to 23,271 species, representing all terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals, to generate global maps of the six major threats to these groups: agriculture, hunting and trapping, logging, pollution, invasive species, and climate change. Our results show that agriculture and logging are pervasive in the tropics and that hunting and trapping is the most geographically widespread threat to mammals and birds. Additionally, current representations of human pressure underestimate the overall pressure on biodiversity, due to the exclusion of threats such as hunting and climate change. Alarmingly, this is particularly the case in areas of the highest biodiversity importance.

Estimation of wildlife damage from federal crop insurance data

BACKGROUND

Wildlife damage to crops is a persistent and costly problem for many farmers in the USA. Most existing estimates of crop damage have relied on direct assessment methods such as field studies conducted by trained biologists or surveys distributed to farmers. In this paper, we describe a new method of estimating wildlife damage that exploits federal crop insurance data. We focused our study on four crops: corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton, chosen because of their economic importance and their vulnerability to wildlife damage.

RESULTS

We determined crop-raiding hot spots across the USA over the 2015-2019 period and identified the eastern and southern regions of the USA as being the most susceptible to wildlife damage. We estimated lower bounds for dollar and percent losses attributable to wildlife to these four crops. The combined loss across four crops was estimated at $592.6 million. The highest total estimated losses to wildlife were incurred by soybeans ($323.9 million) and corn ($194.0 million) and the highest percentage losses were estimated for soybeans (0.87%) and cotton (0.72%).

CONCLUSION

We believe the proposed method is a reliable way to evaluate geographic and temporal heterogeneity in damages for the coming years. Accurate information on damages benefits various management agencies by allowing them to allocate management resources to crops and regions where the problem is relatively severe. A better understanding of damage heterogeneity can also help guide research and development of new management techniques.

A genoscape-network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.

Renewable energy development threatens many globally important biodiversity areas

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land-use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.

Differential effects of habitat loss on occupancy patterns of the eastern green lizard Lacerta viridis at the core and periphery of its distribution range

The effects of habitat loss on the distribution of populations are often linked with species specialization degree. Specialist species can be more affected by changes in landscape structure and local patch characteristics compared to generalist species. Moreover, the spatial scale at which different land covers (eg. habitat, cropland, urban areas) affect specialist species can be smaller. Specialization is usually assumed as a constant trait along the distribution range of species. However, for several taxa, there is evidence of higher specialization degree in peripheral populations compared with populations in the core. Hence, peripheral populations should have a higher sensitivity to habitat loss, and strongest effects should be found at a smaller spatial scale. To test these expectations, we implemented a patch-landscape approach at different spatial scales, and compared effects of landscape structure and patch characteristics on occupancy probability among northern peripheral, more specialized populations (Czech Republic) and core populations (Bulgaria) of the eastern green lizard Lacerta viridis. We found that landscape structure and patch characteristics affect differently the occupancy probability of Lacerta viridis in each region. Strongest effects of habitat loss were found at a spatial scale of 150m around patches in the periphery, but at a scale of 500m in the core. In the periphery occupancy probability of populations was principally affected by landscape composition, and the effect of habitat quality was stronger compared to core populations. In the core, persistence of populations was mainly explained by characteristics of the spatial configuration of habitat patches. We discuss possible ecological mechanisms behind the relationship between sensitivity to habitat loss, populations' specialization degree and position in the distribution range, and suggest conservation measures for L. viridis.

Carnivores, competition and genetic connectivity in the Anthropocene

Current extinction rates are comparable to five prior mass extinctions in the earth’s history, and are strongly affected by human activities that have modified more than half of the earth’s terrestrial surface. Increasing human activity restricts animal movements and isolates formerly connected populations, a particular concern for the conservation of large carnivores, but no prior research has used high throughput sequencing in a standardized manner to examine genetic connectivity for multiple species of large carnivores and multiple ecosystems. Here, we used RAD SNP genotypes to test for differences in connectivity between multiple ecosystems for African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and lions (Panthera leo), and to test correlations between genetic distance, geographic distance and landscape resistance due to human activity. We found weaker connectivity, a stronger correlation between genetic distance and geographic distance, and a stronger correlation between genetic distance and landscape resistance for lions than for wild dogs, and propose a new hypothesis that adaptations to interspecific competition may help to explain differences in vulnerability to isolation by humans.

Human dimensions of wildlife conservation in Iran: Assessment of human-wildlife conflict in restoring a wide-ranging endangered species

Human-wildlife conflicts restrict conservation efforts, especially for wide-ranging animals whose home ranges overlap with human activities. We conducted a study to understand conflicts with, and factors influencing the perceived value of an expanding population of onagers (Equus hemionus onager) in local communities in southern Iran. We asked about locals’ perceptions of six potential management strategies intended to lessen human-onager conflict. We found that human-onager conflict was restricted to 45% of respondents within the Bahram-e-Goor Protected Area, all of whom were involved in farming or herding activities. Locals within the protected area were more knowledgeable about onagers and valued onagers more than those living outside the protected area. The perceived value of onagers increased with level of education, total annual income, and perceptions of onager population trends; the perceived value of onagers decreased with the magnitude of conflict between onagers and locals. To tolerate or avoid conflicts with onagers, locals were supportive of monetary compensation and changing from a traditional lifestyle to industrialized farming (for farmers) or livestock production (for herders) with the help of government; locals did not support selling land to the government. Our study is among the first in human-wildlife conflict and local attitudes towards an endangered species and its recovery in Iran. We conclude that current levels of human-onager conflict are relatively low and perceived value of onagers is still relatively high. Therefore, wildlife authorities should consider the development of mitigation strategies with local communities before conflicts intensify.

Does the widely distributed rodent Calomys tener (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae) constitute a single evolutionary unit?

The nominal species Calomystener (Winge, 1887) ranges broadly in open lands of the Caatinga, Cerrado, Pantanal and Mata Atlântica of Brazil, and was recently reported from the Pampas of southern Brazil, and in the Selva Paranaense of eastern Paraguay and northeastern Argentina. This rodent can be infected with the pathogenic Araraquara hantavirus in Brazil. Given that most epidemiological studies have not taken into account updated taxonomic findings of their rodent hosts, in this study, we obtained sequence data of the Cyt-b and COI genes of specimens of C.tener from 22 different geographical localities from throughout the currently known distribution of the species (including individuals from Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Brazil) to test if it constitutes a single genetic unit or if it presents genetic discontinuities that may represent different evolutionary lineages. Phylogenetic analyses including several species of Calomys recovered several clades with strong support. Regarding C.tener, it is recovered as sister to the node that cluster C.laucha (Fischer, 1814) sensu lato, C.expulsus (Lund, 1841) and species in the C.callosus (Rengger, 1830) species complex. At the intraspecific level there are no genetic gaps among haplotypes of C.tener that could suggest more than one species. The recent captures in the Pampas of southern Brazil and in the Selva Paranaense suggest that the species may be colonizing new geographic areas.

Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger

Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Change (HIREC), particularly climate change and habitat conversion, affects species distributions worldwide. Here, we aimed to (i) assess the factors that determine range patterns of European badger (Meles meles) at the southwestern edge of their distribution and (ii) forecast the possible impacts of future climate and landcover changes on those patterns. We surveyed 272 cells of 5 × 5 km, to assess badger presence and confirmed its occurrence in 95 cells (35%). Our models estimate that badger’s presence is promoted by the occurrence of herbaceous fields and shrublands (5%–10%), and low proportions of Eucalyptus plantations (<~15%). Regions with >50% of podzols and eruptive rocks, higher sheep/goat density (>4 ind/km²), an absence of cattle, intermediate precipitation regimes (800–1000 mm/year) and mild mean temperatures (15–16 °C) are also more likely to host badgers. We predict a decrease in favourability of southern areas for hosting badgers under forecasted climate and landcover change scenarios, which may lead to a northwards retraction of the species southern distribution limit, but the overall landscape favourability is predicted to slightly increase. The forecasted retraction may affect community functional integrity, as its role in southern ecological networks will be vacant.

Dung beetle-mammal associations: methods, research trends and future directions

Dung beetles are increasingly used as a study taxon—both as bioindicators of environmental change, and as a model system for exploring ecosystem functioning. The advantages of this focal taxon approach are many; dung beetles are abundant in a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems, speciose, straightforward to sample, respond to environmental gradients and can be easily manipulated to explore species-functioning relationships. However, there remain large gaps in our understanding of the relationship between dung beetles and the mammals they rely on for dung. Here we review the literature, showing that despite an increase in the study of dung beetles linked to ecosystem functioning and to habitat and land use change, there has been little research into their associations with mammals. We summarize the methods and findings from dung beetle–mammal association studies to date, revealing that although empirical field studies of dung beetles rarely include mammal data, those that do, indicate mammal species presence and composition has a large impact on dung beetle species richness and abundance. We then review the methods used to carry out diet preference and ecosystem functioning studies, finding that despite the assumption that dung beetles are generalist feeders, there are few quantitative studies that directly address this. Together this suggests that conclusions about the effects of habitat change on dung beetles are based on incomplete knowledge. We provide recommendations for future work to identify the importance of considering mammal data for dung beetle distributions, composition and their contributions to ecosystem functioning; a critical step if dung beetles are to be used as a reliable bioindicator taxon.

Drivers of demographic decline across the annual cycle of a threatened migratory bird

Migratory species are rapidly declining but we rarely know which periods of the annual cycle are limiting for most species. This knowledge is needed to effectively allocate conservation resources to the periods of the annual cycle that best promote species recovery. We examined demographic trends and response to human footprint for Canada warblers (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened Neotropical migrant, using range-wide data (1993–2016) from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program on the breeding grounds. Declines in abundance were steepest in the eastern breeding region, followed by the western region. Breeding productivity did not decline in any region. In contrast, we observed declining recruitment in all regions, low apparent survival in the east and west, and a decline in apparent survival in the east. Abundance declined with increasing disturbance around MAPS stations. Between 1993 and 2009, the human footprint index on the breeding range increased by 0.11% in contrast to a 14% increase on the wintering range. Landscape-scale disturbance on the breeding grounds may influence abundance in some regions; however, the observed trends in demography and footprint suggests limitation during the non-breeding period as the likely driver of overall declines, particularly for eastern populations.

Association with humans and seasonality interact to reverse predictions for animal space use

BACKGROUND

Variation in animal space use reflects fitness trade-offs associated with ecological constraints. Associated theories such as the metabolic theory of ecology and the resource dispersion hypothesis generate predictions about what drives variation in animal space use. But, metabolic theory is usually tested in macro-ecological studies and is seldom invoked explicitly in within-species studies. Full evaluation of the resource dispersion hypothesis requires testing in more species. Neither have been evaluated in the context of anthropogenic landscape change.

METHODS

In this study, we used data for banded mongooses (Mungos mungo) in northeastern Botswana, along a gradient of association with humans, to test for effects of space use drivers predicted by these theories. We used Bayesian parameter estimation and inference from linear models to test for seasonal differences in space use metrics and to model seasonal effects of space use drivers.

RESULTS

Results suggest that space use is strongly associated with variation in the level of overlap that mongoose groups have with humans. Seasonality influences this association, reversing seasonal space use predictions historically-accepted by ecologists. We found support for predictions of the metabolic theory when moderated by seasonality, by association with humans and by their interaction. Space use of mongooses living in association with humans was more concentrated in the dry season than the wet season, when historically-accepted ecological theory predicted more dispersed space use. Resource richness factors such as building density were associated with space use only during the dry season. We found negligible support for predictions of the resource dispersion hypothesis in general or for metabolic theory where seasonality and association with humans were not included. For mongooses living in association with humans, space use was not associated with patch dispersion or group size over both seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, living in association with humans influenced space use patterns that diverged from historically-accepted predictions. There is growing need to explicitly incorporate human-animal interactions into ecological theory and research. Our results and methodology may contribute to understanding effects of anthropogenic landscape change on wildlife populations.

Long-term distribution and habitat changes of protected wildlife: giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve, China

Changes in wildlife habitat across space and time, and corresponding changes in wildlife space use, are increasingly common phenomenon. It is critical to study and understand these spatio-temporal changes to accurately inform conservation strategy and manage wildlife populations. These changes can be particularly large and complex in areas that face pressure from human development and disturbance but are also under protection and/or restoration regimes. We analyzed changes in space use and habitat suitability of giant pandas in Wolong Nature Reserve, China, over three decades using kernel density, spatio-temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), and MaxEnt methods, and data from three national censuses. Between 2001 and 2012, there was a slight retraction in total range, and more area of significant space use decreases than increases. Habitat suitability varied spatially and temporally, with a 4.1% decrease in average suitability between 1987 and 2001 and a 3.5% increase in average suitability in between 2001 and 2012. Elevation and bamboo were the most important habitat predictors across the three censuses. Human and natural disturbance variables such as distance to household and the distance to landslide variable in the 4th census were also important predictors, and likely also negatively influenced important habitat variables such as bamboo and forest cover. We were able to measure changes in space utilization and habitat suitability over a large time scale, highlighting the achievements and challenges of giant panda conservation. Long-term monitoring of the changes in distribution and habitat of threatened species, and an analysis of the drivers behind these changes such as undergone here, are important to inform the management and conservation of the world's remaining wildlife populations.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat.

Range contractions of the world's large carnivores

The majority of the world's terrestrial large carnivores have undergone substantial range contractions and many of these species are currently threatened with extinction. However, there has been little effort to fully quantify the extent of large carnivore range contractions, which hinders our ability to understand the roles and relative drivers of such trends. Here we present and analyse a newly constructed and comprehensive set of large carnivore range contraction maps. We reveal the extent to which ranges have contracted since historical times and identify regions and biomes where range contractions have been particularly large. In summary, large carnivores that have experienced the greatest range contractions include the red wolf (Canis rufus) (greater than 99%), Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis) (99%), tiger (Panthera tigris) (95%) and lion (Panthera leo) (94%). In general, the greatest range contractions occurred in Southeastern Asia and Africa. Motivated by the ecological importance of intact large carnivore guilds, we also examined the spatial extent of intact large carnivore guilds both for the entire world and regionally. We found that intact carnivore guilds occupy just 34% of the world's land area. This compares to 96% in historic times. Spatial modelling of range contractions showed that contractions were significantly more likely in regions with high rural human population density, cattle density or cropland. Our results offer new insights into how best to prevent further range contractions for the world's largest carnivores, which will assist efforts to conserve these species and their important ecological effects.

The influence of socioeconomic factors on the densities of high-value cross-border species, the African elephant

Unprecedented poaching levels triggered by demand for ivory in Far East Asia are threatening the persistence of African elephant Loxodonta africana. Southern African countries make an important contribution to elephant conservation and could soon become the last stronghold of elephant conservation in Africa. While the ecological factors affecting elephant distribution and densities have extensively been accounted for, there is a need to understand which socioeconomic factors affect elephant numbers in order to prevent conflict over limited space and resources with humans. We used elephant count data from aerial surveys for seven years in a generalized linear model, which accounted for temporal correlation, to investigate the effect of six socioeconomic and ecological variables on the number of elephant at the country level in the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area (GMTFCA). Important factors in predicting elephant numbers were the proportion of total land surface under cultivation, human population density and the number of tourists visiting the country. Specifically, elephant numbers were higher where the proportion of total land surface under cultivation was the lowest; where population density was the lowest and where tourist numbers had increased over the years. Our results confirm that human disturbance is affecting elephant numbers, but highlight that the benefits provided by ecotourism could help enhance elephant conservation. While future studies should include larger areas and more detailed data at the site level, we stress that the development of coordinated legislation and policies to improve land-use planning are needed to reduce the impact of increasing human populations and agriculture on elephant.

Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation

Human pressures on the environment are changing spatially and temporally, with profound implications for the planet's biodiversity and human economies. Here we use recently available data on infrastructure, land cover and human access into natural areas to construct a globally standardized measure of the cumulative human footprint on the terrestrial environment at 1 km² resolution from 1993 to 2009. We note that while the human population has increased by 23% and the world economy has grown 153%, the human footprint has increased by just 9%. Still, 75% the planet's land surface is experiencing measurable human pressures. Moreover, pressures are perversely intense, widespread and rapidly intensifying in places with high biodiversity. Encouragingly, we discover decreases in environmental pressures in the wealthiest countries and those with strong control of corruption. Clearly the human footprint on Earth is changing, yet there are still opportunities for conservation gains.

Habitat loss and urbanization are primary components of human impact on the environment. Here, Venter et al. use global data on infrastructure, agriculture, and urbanization to show that the human footprint is growing slower than the human population, but footprints are increasing in biodiverse regions.

Modelling harvest of Asian elephants Elephas maximus on the basis of faulty assumptions promotes inappropriate management solutions

A ratio-based logistic model developed to assess elephant harvest rates, based on a study at Nagarhole Tiger Reserve in India, was recommended as a management tool to control human–elephant conflict through culling. Considering this reserve among others violates an assumption of the logistic model: isolation. Nevertheless, assuming this violation was irrelevant, we re-evaluated the model, with minor modifications, for the neighbouring Mudumalai Tiger Reserve, where we used data from 13 elephant Elephas maximus population surveys to derive bootstrapped sets of population ratios, and mortality records. We generated arrays of harvest regimes and examined which ratio outputs were closest to the bootstrapped ratios. Our results indicated that (1) model outputs corresponded best with the Mudumalai population structure when harvest regimes were extreme and unlikely, (2) there were significant differences in population structure and harvest regimes between Nagarhole and Mudumalai, and (3) only 49% of adult male deaths predicted by model outputs were recorded in official governmental records. The model provides significantly different results among reserves, which invalidates it as a tool to predict change across the entire elephant population. Variability in survey data and inaccuracies in transition probabilities are sufficiently large to warrant caution when using them as a basis for deterministic modelling. Official mortality databases provide a weak means of validation because poaching incidents are poorly recorded. We conclude that the model should be based on validated transition probabilities and encompass the entire regional population.

Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca) population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i) private reserve creation ii) later reserve expansions, and iii) cattle ranches' conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively) in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively). Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km2. We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.

Human pressures predict species' geographic range size better than biological traits

Geographic range size is the manifestation of complex interactions between intrinsic species traits and extrinsic environmental conditions. It is also a fundamental ecological attribute of species and a key extinction risk correlate. Past research has primarily focused on the role of biological and environmental predictors of range size, but macroecological patterns can also be distorted by human activities. Here, we analyse the role of extrinsic (biogeography, habitat state, climate, human pressure) and intrinsic (biology) variables in predicting range size of the world's terrestrial mammals. In particular, our aim is to compare the predictive ability of human pressure vs. species biology. We evaluated the ability of 19 intrinsic and extrinsic variables in predicting range size for 4867 terrestrial mammals. We repeated the analyses after excluding restricted-range species and performed separate analyses for species in different biogeographic realms and taxonomic groups. Our model had high predictive ability and showed that climatic variables and human pressures are the most influential predictors of range size. Interestingly, human pressures predict current geographic range size better than biological traits. These findings were confirmed when repeating the analyses on large-ranged species, individual biogeographic regions and individual taxonomic groups. Climatic and human impacts have determined the extinction of mammal species in the past and are the main factors shaping the present distribution of mammals. These factors also affect other vertebrate groups globally, and their influence on range size may be similar as well. Measuring climatic and human variables can allow to obtain approximate range size estimations for data-deficient and newly discovered species (e.g. hundreds of mammal species worldwide). Our results support the need for a more careful consideration of the role of climate change and human impact - as opposed to species biological characteristics - in shaping species distribution ranges.

Habitat loss, not fragmentation, drives occurrence patterns of Canada lynx at the southern range periphery

Peripheral populations often experience more extreme environmental conditions than those in the centre of a species' range. Such extreme conditions include habitat loss, defined as a reduction in the amount of suitable habitat, as well as habitat fragmentation, which involves the breaking apart of habitat independent of habitat loss. The 'threshold hypothesis' predicts that organisms will be more affected by habitat fragmentation when the amount of habitat on the landscape is scarce (i.e., less than 30%) than when habitat is abundant, implying that habitat fragmentation may compound habitat loss through changes in patch size and configuration. Alternatively, the 'flexibility hypothesis' predicts that individuals may respond to increased habitat disturbance by altering their selection patterns and thereby reducing sensitivity to habitat loss and fragmentation. While the range of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) has contracted during recent decades, the relative importance of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation on this phenomenon is poorly understood. We used a habitat suitability model for lynx to identify suitable land cover in Ontario, and contrasted occupancy patterns across landscapes differing in cover, to test the 'threshold hypothesis' and 'flexibility hypothesis'. When suitable land cover was widely available, lynx avoided areas with less than 30% habitat and were unaffected by habitat fragmentation. However, on landscapes with minimal suitable land cover, lynx occurrence was not related to either habitat loss or habitat fragmentation, indicating support for the 'flexibility hypothesis'. We conclude that lynx are broadly affected by habitat loss, and not specifically by habitat fragmentation, although occurrence patterns are flexible and dependent on landscape condition. We suggest that lynx may alter their habitat selection patterns depending on local conditions, thereby reducing their sensitivity to anthropogenically-driven habitat alteration.

Spatial occupancy models applied to atlas data show Southern Ground Hornbills strongly depend on protected areas

Determining the range of a species and exploring species--habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence--absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus, positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern Ground Hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence--absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range, but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order, of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.