Phenological synchronization disrupts trophic interactions between Kodiak brown bears and salmon

Buffering and phenological mismatch: A change of perspective

The potential for climate change to disrupt phenology-mediated interactions in interaction networks has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Frequently, studies emphasize the fragility of ephemeral seasonal interactions, and the risks posed by phenological asynchrony. Here, we argue that the fitness consequences of asynchrony in phenological interactions may often be more buffered than is typically acknowledged. We identify three main forms that buffering may take: (i) mechanisms that reduce asynchrony between consumer and resource; (ii) mechanisms that reduce the costs of being asynchronous; and (iii) mechanisms that dampen interannual variance in performance across higher organizational units. Using synchrony between the hatching of winter moth caterpillars and the leafing of their host-plants as a case study, we identify a wide variety of buffers that reduce the detrimental consequences of phenological asynchrony on caterpillar individuals, populations, and meta-populations. We follow this by drawing on examples across a breadth of taxa, and demonstrate that these buffering mechanisms may be quite general. We conclude by identifying key gaps in our knowledge of the fitness and demographic consequences of buffering, in the context of phenological mismatch. Buffering has the potential to substantially alter our understanding of the biotic impacts of future climate change-a greater recognition of the contribution of these mechanisms may reveal that many trophic interactions are surprisingly resilient, and also serve to shift research emphasis to those systems with fewer buffers and towards identifying the limits of those buffers.

Learning shapes the development of migratory behavior

How animals refine migratory behavior over their lifetime (i.e., the ontogeny of migration) is an enduring question with important implications for predicting the adaptive capacity of migrants in a changing world. Yet, our inability to monitor the movements of individuals from early life onward has limited our understanding of the ontogeny of migration. The exploration-refinement hypothesis posits that learning shapes the ontogeny of migration in long-lived species, resulting in greater exploratory behavior early in life followed by more rapid and direct movement during later life. We test the exploration-refinement hypothesis by examining how white storks (Ciconia ciconia) balance energy, time, and information as they develop and refine migratory behavior during the first years of life. Here, we show that young birds reduce energy expenditure during flight while also increasing information gain by exploring new places during migration. As the birds age and gain more experience, older individuals stop exploring new places and instead move more quickly and directly, resulting in greater energy expenditure during migratory flight. During spring migration, individuals innovated novel shortcuts during the transition from early life into adulthood, suggesting a reliance on spatial memory acquired through learning. These incremental refinements in migratory behavior provide support for the importance of individual learning within a lifetime in the ontogeny of long-distance migration.

Human disturbance in riparian areas disrupts predator-prey interactions between grizzly bears and salmon

Wildlife must increasingly balance trade-offs between the need to access important foods and the mortality risks associated with human-dominated landscapes. Human disturbance can profoundly influence wildlife behavior, but managers know little about the relationship between disturbance-behavior dynamics and associated consequences for foraging. We address this gap by empirically investigating the consequences of human activity on a keystone predator-prey interaction in a region with limited but varied industrial disturbance. Using stable isotope data from 226 hair samples of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) collected from 1995 to 2014 across 22 salmon-bearing watersheds (88,000 km2) in British Columbia, Canada, we examined how human activity influenced their consumption of spawning salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), a fitness-related food. Accounting for the abundance of salmon and other foods, salmon consumption strongly decreased (up to 59% for females) with increasing human disturbance (as measured by the human footprint index) in riparian zones of salmon-bearing rivers. Declines in salmon consumption occurred with disturbance even in watersheds with low footprints. In a region currently among the least influenced by industrial activity, intensification of disturbance in river valleys is predicted to increasingly decouple bears from salmon, possibly driving associated reductions in population productivity and provisioning of salmon nutrients to terrestrial ecosystems. Accordingly, we draw on our results to make landscape-scale and access-related management recommendations beyond current streamside protection buffers. This work illustrates the interaction between habitat modification and food security for wildlife, highlighting the potential for unacknowledged interactions and cumulative effects in increasingly modified landscapes.

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with "high confidence" and delaying autumn phenology with "medium confidence" under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.

Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Daily activity timing in the Anthropocene

Animals are facing novel 'timescapes' in which the stimuli entraining their daily activity patterns no longer match historical conditions due to anthropogenic disturbance. However, the ecological effects (e.g., altered physiology, species interactions) of novel activity timing are virtually unknown. We reviewed 1328 studies and found relatively few focusing on anthropogenic effects on activity timing. We suggest three hypotheses to stimulate future research: (i) activity-timing mismatches determine ecological effects, (ii) duration and timing of timescape modification influence effects, and (iii) consequences of altered activity timing vary biogeographically due to broad-scale variation in factors compressing timescapes. The continued growth of sampling technologies promises to facilitate the study of the consequences of altered activity timing, with emerging applications for biodiversity conservation.

Ursids evolved early and continuously to be low-protein macronutrient omnivores

The eight species of bears world-wide consume a wide variety of diets. Some are specialists with extensive anatomical and physiological adaptations necessary to exploit specific foods or environments [e.g., polar bears (Ursus maritimus), giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), and sloth bears (Melursus ursinus)], while the rest are generalists. Even though ursids evolved from a high-protein carnivore, we hypothesized that all have become low-protein macronutrient omnivores. While this dietary strategy has already been described for polar bears and brown bears (Ursus arctos), a recent study on giant pandas suggested their macronutrient selection was that of the ancestral high-protein carnivore. Consumption of diets with inappropriate macronutrient profiles has been associated with increased energy expenditure, ill health, failed reproduction, and premature death. Consequently, we conducted feeding and preference trials with giant pandas and sloth bears, a termite and ant-feeding specialist. Both giant pandas and sloth bears branched off from the ursid lineage a million or more years before polar bears and brown bears. We found that giant pandas are low-protein, high-carbohydrate omnivores, whereas sloth bears are low-protein, high-fat omnivores. The preference for low protein diets apparently occurred early in the evolution of ursids and may have been critical to their world-wide spread.

Explaining pre-emptive acclimation by linking information to plant phenotype

We review mechanisms for pre-emptive acclimation in plants and propose a conceptual model linking developmental and evolutionary ecology with the acquisition of information through sensing of cues and signals. The idea is that plants acquire much of the information in the environment not from individual cues and signals but instead from their joint multivariate properties such as correlations. If molecular signalling has evolved to extract such information, the joint multivariate properties of the environment must be encoded in the genome, epigenome, and phenome. We contend that multivariate complexity explains why extrapolating from experiments done in artificial contexts into natural or agricultural systems almost never works for characters under complex environmental regulation: biased relationships among the state variables in both time and space create a mismatch between the evolutionary history reflected in the genotype and the artificial growing conditions in which the phenotype is expressed. Our model can generate testable hypotheses bridging levels of organization. We describe the model and its theoretical bases, and discuss its implications. We illustrate the hypotheses that can be derived from the model in two cases of pre-emptive acclimation based on correlations in the environment: the shade avoidance response and acclimation to drought.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Phenological Coadaptation Can Stabilize Predator–Prey Dynamics

In recent years, phenology – the seasonal timing of biological life cycles – has received increasing attention as climate change threatens to shift phenology. Phenology is crucial to the life cycle of organisms and their interactions with intimate partner species; hence, phenology has important fitness consequences suggesting that phenology can change through adaptive processes caused by species interaction. However, to date, there is limited understanding of how phenological adaptation occurs among interacting species and consequently affects ecological population dynamics. In this study, a phenological predator–prey co-adaptation model was evaluated to determine how adaptive phenological changes occur in prey and predator and how phenological coadaptation affects their coexistence. Population fluctuations tend to decrease and become stabilized when adaptation occurs rapidly. Furthermore, when adaptation is slow, predator–prey dynamics can be stabilized or destabilized depending on the initial difference in phenological timing between species. These results suggest that phenology shaped by slow coevolution can shift with changes in activity timing caused by environmental changes and simultaneously alter the stability of predator–prey dynamics. In contrast, phenology caused by rapid adaptation, such as phenotypic plasticity, may be robust to environmental change and maintain the stability of predator–prey dynamics. Understanding the types of adaptative processes that shape species phenologies may be crucial for predicting the ecological effects of climate change.

Understanding Species–Habitat Associations: A Case Study with the World’s Bears

Habitat modeling is one of the most common practices in ecology today, aimed at understanding complex associations between species and an array of environmental, bioclimatic, and anthropogenic factors. This review of studies of seven species of terrestrial bears (Ursidae) occupying four continents examines how habitat models have been employed, and the functionality of their predictions for management and conservation. Bear occurrence data have been obtained at the population level, as presence points (e.g., sign surveys or camera trapping), or as locations of individual radio-collared animals. Radio-collars provide greater insights into how bears interact with their environment and variability within populations; they are more commonly used in North America and Europe than in South America and Asia. Salient problematic issues apparent from this review included: biases in presence data; predictor variables being poor surrogates of actual behavioral drivers; predictor variables applied at a biologically inappropriate scale; and over-use of data repositories that tend to detach investigators from the species. In several cases, multiple models in the same area yielded different predictions; new presence data occurred outside the range of predicted suitable habitat; and future range projections, based on where bears presently exist, underestimated their adaptability. Findings here are likely relevant to other taxa.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

New insights into dietary management of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and brown bears (U. arctos)

Although polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and brown bears (U. arctos) have been exhibited in zoological gardens for centuries, little is known about their nutritional needs. Multiple recent studies on both wild and captive polar bears and brown bears have found that they voluntarily select dietary macronutrient proportions resulting in much lower dietary protein and higher fat or digestible carbohydrate concentrations than are currently fed in most zoos. These lower protein concentrations selected by both species maximized growth rates and efficiencies of energy utilization in brown bears and may play a role in reducing kidney, liver, and cardiovascular diseases in both species. Therefore, we propose the need for the development of new dietary regimens for both species in managed care that better reflect their macronutrient needs. We developed a new kibble that is higher in fat and lower in protein than typical diets that have been fed in managed care, has a fatty acid profile more consistent with wild bear diets, and has been readily consumed by both brown bears and polar bears. The kibble can be fed as the sole diet or as part of more complex diets with additional fruits, meats, or vegetables. Because many nutritional deficiencies and related diseases can take months or years to appear, we urge caution and continued long-term monitoring of bears and their diets to ensure their optimal health.

Predation landscapes influence migratory prey ecology and evolution

Migratory prey experience spatially variable predation across their life cycle. They face unique challenges in navigating this predation landscape, which affects their perception of risk, antipredator responses, and resulting mortality. Variable and unfamiliar predator cues during migration can limit accurate perception of risk and migrants often rely on social information and learning to compensate. The energetic demands of migration constrain antipredator responses, often through context-dependent patterns. While migration can increase mortality, migrants employ diverse strategies to balance risks and rewards, including life history and antipredator responses. Humans interact frequently with migratory prey across space and alter both mortality risk and antipredator responses, which can scale up to affect migratory populations and should be considered in conservation and management.

The effects of resource subsidy duration in a detritus-based stream ecosystem: A mesocosm experiment

Most resource subsidies are temporally variable, dynamically affecting the consumer populations, community structures and ecosystem functions of recipient ecosystems. Temporally variable resource subsidies are characterized by the duration, magnitude, timing and frequency of resource subsidy inputs. These different characteristics may have different mechanisms by which to affect recipient ecosystems. Few studies have examined the duration of resource subsidy inputs on recipient ecosystems, although there exist previous studies focusing on magnitude, timing and frequency. We provide the first experimental test of the effects of subsidy duration on a stream ecosystem by using an outdoor mesocosm experiment, in which we directly manipulated the subsidy duration (pulsed vs. prolonged) of terrestrial invertebrate input into the mesocosm. Given the same overall amount of terrestrial invertebrate subsidy was added, a prolonged subsidy allowed large-stage fish to effectively monopolize the subsidy over small-stage fish, which led small-stage fish to maintain their predation pressure on in-situ prey, that is, benthic invertebrates. On the other hand, a pulsed subsidy allowed small-stage fish to increase their feeding rate of the subsidy and to become away from foraging in-situ prey. Consequently, weaker indirect positive effects on in-situ benthic prey and leaf break-down rate were found with the prolonged versus pulsed subsidy. However, these indirect effects varied by the dominant benthic prey species, which differed in edibility for fish. Such predator-specific vulnerability of benthic prey can be important in mediating trophic cascades in detritus-based stream food webs. Phenological events that generate temporal subsidies (e.g. salmon spawning run and arthropod emergence) can be synchronized (pulsed) or desynchronized (prolonged) within and among species, depending on the degree of spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity. The effects of subsidy duration would thus be important to better understand ecological processes in spatially and temporally coupled ecosystems.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Community Ecology and Conservation of Bear-Salmon Ecosystems

Apex predators play keystone roles in ecosystems through top-down control, but the effects of apex omnivores on ecosystems could be more varied because changes in the resource base alter their densities and reverberate through ecosystems in complex ways. In coastal temperate ecosystems throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere, anadromous salmon once supported abundant bear populations, but both taxa have declined or been extirpated from large parts of their former ranges with limited research on the consequences of diminished or absent interactions among species. Here we review the biogeography of bear-salmon interactions and the role of salmon-subsidized bears in (1) resource provisioning to plants and scavengers through the distribution of salmon carcasses, (2) competition among bears and other large carnivores, (3) predation of ungulate neonates, (4) seed dispersal, and (5) resource subsidies to rodents with seed-filled scats. In addition to our review of the literature, we present original data to demonstrate two community-level patterns that are currently unexplained. First, deer densities appear to be consistently higher on islands with abundant brown bears than adjacent islands with black bears and wolves, and moose calf survival is higher at low bear densities (<∼25 bears per 100 km2) but is constant across the vast majority of bear densities found in the wild (i.e., ∼>25 bears per 100 km2). Our review and empirical data highlight key knowledge gaps and research opportunities to understand the complex ecosystem effects related to bear-salmon interactions.

Stable Isotopes Reveal Variation in Consumption of Pacific Salmon by Brown Bears, Despite Ready Access in Small Streams

Brown bears Ursus arctos consume a wide range of organisms, including ungulates and plants, but Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are especially important to their diet where their ranges overlap. Although some brown bears minimize antagonistic encounters with other brown bears or infanticide by avoiding streams where salmon spawn, studies generally assume that brown bears with ready access to salmon feed heavily on them. To test this assumption, and the hypothesis that male brown bears would feed more heavily on salmon than females (owing to their sexual size dimorphism), we collected hair samples from brown bears by using barbed wire placed on six small tributaries of Lake Aleknagik, Alaska, USA, where adult Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka are readily accessible and frequently consumed by brown bears. Analysis of DNA distinguished among the different brown bears leaving the hair samples, some of which were sampled multiple times within and among years. We assessed the contribution of salmon to the diet of individual brown bears by using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope signatures. The 77 samples analyzed from 31 different bears over 4 y showed isotopic ratios consistent with reliance on salmon, but the wide range of isotopic signatures included values suggesting variable, and in one case considerable, use of terrestrial resources. Stable isotope signatures did not differ between male and female brown bears, nor did they differ between two sides of the lake, despite marked differences in Sockeye Salmon density. We collected the hair samples when salmon were present, so there was some uncertainty regarding whether they reflected feeding during the current or previous season. Notwithstanding this caveat, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that salmon were sufficiently available to provide food for the brown bears and that the considerable isotopic variation among brown bears with access to salmon reflected their age, status, and behavior.

Life in fluctuating environments

Variability in the environment defines the structure and dynamics of all living systems, from organisms to ecosystems. Species have evolved traits and strategies that allow them to detect, exploit and predict the changing environment. These traits allow organisms to maintain steady internal conditions required for physiological functioning through feedback mechanisms that allow internal conditions to remain at or near a set-point despite a fluctuating environment. In addition to feedback, many organisms have evolved feedforward processes, which allow them to adjust in anticipation of an expected future state of the environment. Here we provide a framework describing how feedback and feedforward mechanisms operating within organisms can generate effects across scales of organization, and how they allow living systems to persist in fluctuating environments. Daily, seasonal and multi-year cycles provide cues that organisms use to anticipate changes in physiologically relevant environmental conditions. Using feedforward mechanisms, organisms can exploit correlations in environmental variables to prepare for anticipated future changes. Strategies to obtain, store and act on information about the conditional nature of future events are advantageous and are evidenced in widespread phenotypes such as circadian clocks, social behaviour, diapause and migrations. Humans are altering the ways in which the environment fluctuates, causing correlations between environmental variables to become decoupled, decreasing the reliability of cues. Human-induced environmental change is also altering sensory environments and the ability of organisms to detect cues. Recognizing that living systems combine feedback and feedforward processes is essential to understanding their responses to current and future regimes of environmental fluctuations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation’.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Drought reshuffles plant phenology and reduces the foraging benefit of green-wave surfing for a migratory ungulate

To increase resource gain, many herbivores pace their migration with the flush of nutritious plant green-up that progresses across the landscape (termed "green-wave surfing"). Despite concerns about the effects of climate change on migratory species and the critical role of plant phenology in mediating the ability of ungulates to surf, little is known about how drought shapes the green wave and influences the foraging benefits of migration. With a 19 year dataset on drought and plant phenology across 99 unique migratory routes of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in western Wyoming, United States, we show that drought shortened the duration of spring green-up by approximately twofold (2.5 weeks) and resulted in less sequential green-up along migratory routes. We investigated the possibility that some routes were buffered from the effects of drought (i.e., routes that maintained long green-up duration irrespective of drought intensity). We found no evidence of drought-buffered routes. Instead, routes with the longest green-up in non-drought years also were the most affected by drought. Despite phenological changes along the migratory route, mule deer closely followed drought-altered green waves during migration. Migrating deer did not experience a trophic mismatch with the green wave during drought. Instead, the shorter window of green-up caused by drought reduced the opportunity to accumulate forage resources during rapid spring migrations. Our work highlights the synchronization of phenological events as an important mechanism by which climate change can negatively affect migratory species by reducing the temporal availability of key food resources. For migratory herbivores, climate change poses a new and growing threat by altering resource phenology and diminishing the foraging benefit of migration.

Splitting hairs: dietary niche breadth modelling using stable isotope analysis of a sequentially grown tissue

Stable isotope data from durable, sequentially grown tissues (e.g. hair, claw, and baleen) is commonly used for modelling dietary niche breadth. The use of tissues grown over multiple months to years, however, has the potential to complicate isotopic niche breadth modelling, as time-averaged stable isotope signals from whole tissues may obscure information available from chronologically resolved stable isotope signals in serially sectioned tissues. We determined if whole samples of brown bear guard hair produced different isotopic niche breadth estimates than those produced from subsampled, serially sectioned samples of the same tissue from the same set of individuals. We sampled guard hair from brown bears (Ursus arctos) in four regions of Alaska with disparate biogeographies and dietary resource availability. Whole hair and serially sectioned hair samples were used to produce paired isotopic dietary niche breadth estimates for each region in the SIBER Bayesian model framework in R. Isotopic data from serially sectioned hair consistently produced larger estimates of isotopic dietary niche breadth than isotope data from whole hair samples. Serial sampling captures finer-scale changes in diet and when cumulatively used to estimate isotopic niche breadth, the serially sampled isotope data more fully captures dietary variability and true isotopic niche breadth.

Enhanced shrub growth in the Arctic increases habitat connectivity for browsing herbivores

Habitat connectivity is a key factor influencing species range dynamics. Rapid warming in the Arctic is leading to widespread heterogeneous shrub expansion, but impacts of these habitat changes on range dynamics for large herbivores are not well understood. We use the climate-shrub-moose system of northern Alaska as a case study to examine how shrub habitat will respond to predicted future warming, and how these changes may impact habitat connectivity and the distribution of moose (Alces alces). We used a 19 year moose location dataset, a 568 km transect of field shrub sampling, and forecasted warming scenarios with regional downscaling to map current and projected shrub habitat for moose on the North Slope of Alaska. The tall-shrub habitat for moose exhibited a dendritic spatial configuration correlated with river corridor networks and mean July temperature. Warming scenarios predict that moose habitat will more than double by 2099. Forecasted warming is predicted to increase the spatial cohesion of the habitat network that diminishes effects of fragmentation, which improves overall habitat quality and likely expands the range of moose. These findings demonstrate how climate change may increase habitat connectivity and alter the distributions of shrub herbivores in the Arctic, including creation of novel communities and ecosystems.

Denning in brown bears

Hibernation represents an adaptation for coping with unfavorable environmental conditions. For brown bears Ursus arctos, hibernation is a critical period as pronounced temporal reductions in several physiological functions occur.Here, we review the three main aspects of brown bear denning: (1) den chronology, (2) den characteristics, and (3) hibernation physiology in order to identify (a) proximate and ultimate factors of hibernation as well as (b) research gaps and conservation priorities.Den chronology, which varies by sex and reproductive status, depends on environmental factors, such as snow, temperature, food availability, and den altitude. Significant variation in hibernation across latitudes occurs for both den entry and exit.The choice of a den and its surroundings may affect individual fitness, for example, loss of offspring and excessive energy consumption. Den selection is the result of broad- and fine-scale habitat selection, mainly linked to den insulation, remoteness, and availability of food in the surroundings of the den location.Hibernation is a metabolic challenge for the brown bears, in which a series of physiological adaptations in tissues and organs enable survival under nutritional deprivation, maintain high levels of lipids, preserve muscle, and bone and prevent cardiovascular pathologies such as atherosclerosis. It is important to understand: (a) proximate and ultimate factors in denning behavior and the difference between actual drivers of hibernation (i.e., factors to which bears directly respond) and their correlates; (b) how changes in climatic factors might affect the ability of bears to face global climate change and the human-mediated changes in food availability; (c) hyperphagia (period in which brown bears accumulate fat reserves), predenning and denning periods, including for those populations in which bears do not hibernate every year; and (d) how to approach the study of bear denning merging insights from different perspectives, that is, physiology, ecology, and behavior.

Machine Learning Using Digitized Herbarium Specimens to Advance Phenological Research

Machine learning (ML) has great potential to drive scientific discovery by harvesting data from images of herbarium specimens—preserved plant material curated in natural history collections—but ML techniques have only recently been applied to this rich resource. ML has particularly strong prospects for the study of plant phenological events such as growth and reproduction. As a major indicator of climate change, driver of ecological processes, and critical determinant of plant fitness, plant phenology is an important frontier for the application of ML techniques for science and society. In the present article, we describe a generalized, modular ML workflow for extracting phenological data from images of herbarium specimens, and we discuss the advantages, limitations, and potential future improvements of this workflow. Strategic research and investment in specimen-based ML methods, along with the aggregation of herbarium specimen data, may give rise to a better understanding of life on Earth.

Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species

Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species’ current ranges by the end of the 21^st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21^st century, and 36 days by the late-21^st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.

Managing salmon for wildlife: Do fisheries limit salmon consumption by bears in small Alaskan streams?

Ecosystem-based management requires consideration of overlapping resource use between humans and other consumers. Pacific salmon are an important resource for both fisheries and populations of wildlife around the Pacific rim, including coastal brown bears (Ursus arctos); salmon consumption has been positively linked to bear density, body size, and reproductive rate. As a case study within the broader context of human-wildlife competition for food, we used 16-22 yr of empirical data in four different salmon-bearing systems in southwestern Alaska to explore the relationship between sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) availability and consumption by bears. We found a negative relationship between the annual biomass of salmon available to bears and the fraction of biomass consumed per fish, and a saturating relationship between salmon availability and the total annual biomass of salmon consumed by bears. Under modeled scenarios, bear consumption of salmon was predicted to increase only with dramatic (on the order of 50-100%) increases in prey availability. Even such large increases in salmon abundance were estimated to produce relatively modest increases in per capita salmon consumption by bears (2.4-4.8 kg·bear^-1 ·d^-1 , 15-59% of the estimated daily maximum per capita intake), in part because bears did not consume salmon entirely, especially when salmon were most available. Thus, while bears catching salmon in small streams may be limited by salmon harvest in some years, current management of the systems we studied is sufficient for bear populations to reach maximum salmon consumption every 2-4 yr. Consequently, allocating more salmon for brown bear conservation would unlikely result in an ecologically significant response for bears in these systems, though other ecosystem components might benefit. Our results highlight the need for documenting empirical relationships between prey abundance and consumption, particularly in systems with partial consumption, when evaluating the ecological response of managing prey resources for wildlife populations.

Warming counteracts defoliation-induced mismatch by increasing herbivore-plant phenological synchrony

Climate change is altering phenology; however, the magnitude of this change varies among taxa. Compared with phenological mismatch between plants and herbivores, synchronization due to climate has been less explored, despite its potential implications for trophic interactions. The earlier budburst induced by defoliation is a phenological strategy for plants against herbivores. Here, we tested whether warming can counteract defoliation-induced mismatch by increasing herbivore-plant phenological synchrony. We compared the larval phenology of spruce budworm and budburst in balsam fir, black spruce, and white spruce saplings subjected to defoliation in a controlled environment at temperatures of 12, 17, and 22°C. Budburst in defoliated saplings occurred 6-24 days earlier than in the controls, thus mismatching needle development from larval feeding. This mismatch decreased to only 3-7 days, however, when temperatures warmed by 5 and 10°C, leading to a resynchronization of the host with spruce budworm larvae. The increasing synchrony under warming counteracts the defoliation-induced mismatch, disrupting trophic interactions and energy flow between forest ecosystem and insect populations. Our results suggest that the predicted warming may improve food quality and provide better growth conditions for larval development, thus promoting longer or more intense insect outbreaks in the future.

Phenological synchrony shapes pathology in host-parasite systems

A key challenge surrounding ongoing climate shifts is to identify how they alter species interactions, including those between hosts and parasites. Because transmission often occurs during critical time windows, shifts in the phenology of either taxa can alter the likelihood of interaction or the resulting pathology. We quantified how phenological synchrony between vulnerable stages of an amphibian host (Pseudacris regilla) and infection by a pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae) determined infection prevalence, parasite load and host pathology. By tracking hosts and parasite infection throughout development between low- and high-elevation regions (San Francisco Bay Area and the Southern Cascades (Mt Lassen)), we found that when phenological synchrony was high (Bay Area), each established parasite incurred a 33% higher probability of causing severe limb malformations relative to areas with less synchrony (Mt Lassen). As a result, hosts in the Bay Area had up to a 50% higher risk of pathology even while controlling for the mean infection load. Our results indicate that host-parasite interactions and the resulting pathology were the joint product of infection load and phenological synchrony, highlighting the sensitivity of disease outcomes to forecasted shifts in climate.

State-dependent vulnerability of synchronization

A state-dependent vulnerability of synchronization is shown to exist in a complex network composed of numerically simulated electronic circuits. We demonstrate that disturbances to the local dynamics of network units can produce different outcomes to synchronization depending on the current state of its trajectory. We address such state dependence by systematically perturbing the synchronized system at states equally distributed along its trajectory. We find the states at which the perturbation desynchronizes the network to be complicatedly mixed with the ones that restore synchronization. Additionally, we characterize perturbation sets obtained for consecutive states by defining a safety index between them. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed vulnerability is due to the existence of an unstable chaotic set in the system's state space.

Aerial surveys cause large but ephemeral decreases in bear presence at salmon streams in Kodiak, Alaska

Aerial surveys are often used to monitor wildlife and fish populations, but rarely are the effects on animal behavior documented. For over 30 years, the Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge has conducted low-altitude aerial surveys to assess Kodiak brown bear (Ursus arctos middendorffi) space use and demographic composition when bears are seasonally congregated near salmon spawning streams in southwestern Kodiak Island, Alaska. Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are an important bear food and salmon runs are brief, so decreases in time spent fishing for salmon may reduce salmon consumption by bears. The goal of this study was to apply different and complementary field methods to evaluate the response of bears to these aerial surveys. Ground-based counts at one stream indicated 62% of bears departed the 200m-wide survey zone in response to aerial surveys, but bear counts returned to pre-survey abundance after only three hours. Although this effect was brief, survey flights occurred during the hours of peak daily bear activity (morning and evening), so the three-hour disruption appeared to result in a 25% decline in cumulative daily detections by 38 time-lapse cameras deployed along 10 salmon streams. Bear responses varied by sex—male bears were much more likely than female bears (with or without cubs) to depart streams and female bears with GPS collars did not move from streams following surveys. Although bears displaced by aerial surveys may consume fewer salmon, the actual effect on their fitness depends on whether they compensate by foraging at other times or by switching to other nutritious resources. Data from complementary sources allows managers to more robustly understand the impacts of surveys and whether their benefits are justified. Similar assessments should be made on alternative techniques such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and non-invasive sampling to determine whether they supply equivalent data while limiting bear disturbance.

The Missing Angle: Ecosystem Consequences of Phenological Mismatch

Climate change leads to unequal shifts in the phenology of interacting species, such as consumers and their resources, leading to potential phenological mismatches. While studies have investigated how phenological mismatch affects wild populations, we still lack studies and a framework for investigating how phenological mismatch affects ecosystems, particularly nutrient cycling.

Warm, dry winters truncate timing and size distribution of seaward-migrating salmon across a large, regulated watershed

Ecologists are pressed to understand how climate constrains the timings of annual biological events (phenology). Climate influences on phenology are likely significant in estuarine watersheds because many watersheds provide seasonal fish nurseries where juvenile presence is synched with favorable conditions. While ecologists have long recognized that estuaries are generally important to juvenile fish, we incompletely understand the specific ecosystem dynamics that contribute to their nursery habitat value, limiting our ability to identify and protect vital habitat components. Here we examined the annual timing of juvenile coldwater fish migrating through a seasonally warm, hydrologically managed watershed. Our goal was to (1) understand how climate constrained the seasonal timing of water conditions necessary for juvenile fish to use nursery habitats and (2) inform management decisions about (a) mitigating climate-mediated stress on nursery habitat function and (b) conserving heat-constrained species in warming environments. Cool, wet winters deposited snow and cold water into mountains and reservoirs, which kept the lower watershed adequately cool for juveniles through the spring despite the region approaching its hot, dry summers. For every 1°C waters in April were colder, the juvenile fish population (1) inhabited the watershed 4-7 d longer and (2) entered marine waters, where survival is size selective, at maximum sizes 2.1 mm larger. Climate therefore appeared to constrain the nursery functions of this system by determining seasonal windows of tolerable rearing conditions, and cold water appeared to be a vital ecosystem component that promoted juvenile rearing. Fish in this system inhabit the southernmost extent of their range and already rear during the coolest part of the year, suggesting that a warming climate will truncate rather than shift their annual presence. Our findings are concerning for coldwater diadromous species in general because warming climates may constrain watershed use and diminish viability of life histories (e.g., late springtime rearing) and associated portfolio benefits over the long term. Lower watershed nurseries for coldwater fish in warming climates may be enhanced through allocating coldwater reservoir releases to prolong juvenile rearing periods downstream or restorations that facilitate colder conditions.

Predator-Prey Interactions in the Anthropocene: Reconciling Multiple Aspects of Novelty

Ecological novelty, when conditions deviate from a historical baseline, is increasingly common as humans modify habitats and communities across the globe. Our ability to anticipate how novelty changes predator-prey interactions will likely hinge upon the explicit evaluation of multiple forms of novelty, rather than a focus on single forms of novelty (e.g., invasive predators or climate change). We provide a framework to assess how multiple forms of novelty can act, alone or in concert, on components shared by all predator-prey interactions (the predation sequence). Considering how novelty acts throughout the predation sequence could improve our understanding of predator-prey interactions in an increasingly novel world, identify important knowledge gaps, and guide conservation decisions in the Anthropocene.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a disturbed world: implications for the maintenance of ecological networks

Past management of exploited species and of conservation issues has often ignored the evolutionary dynamics of species. During the 70s and 80s, evolution was mostly considered a slow process that may be safely ignored for most management issues. However, in recent years, examples of fast evolution have accumulated, suggesting that time scales of evolutionary dynamics (variations in genotype frequencies) and of ecological dynamics (variations in species densities) are often largely comparable, so that complex feedbacks commonly exist between the ecological and the evolutionary context ("eco-evolutionary dynamics"). While a first approach is of course to consider the evolution of a given species, in ecological communities, species are interlinked by interaction networks. In the present article, I discuss how species (co)evolution in such a network context may alter our understanding and predictions for species coexistence, given the disturbed world we live in. I review some concepts and examples suggesting that evolution may enhance the robustness of ecological networks and then show that, in many situations, the reverse may also happen, as evolutionary dynamics can harm diversity maintenance in various ways. I particularly focus on how evolution modifies indirect effects in ecological networks, then move to coevolution and discuss how the outcome of coevolution for species coexistence depends on the type of interaction (mutualistic or antagonistic) that is considered. I also review examples of phenotypes that are known to be important for ecological networks and shown to vary rapidly given global changes. Given all these components, evolution produces indirect eco-evolutionary effects within networks that will ultimately influence the optimal management of the current biodiversity crisis.

Salmonid species diversity predicts salmon consumption by terrestrial wildlife

Resource waves—spatial variation in resource phenology that extends feeding opportunities for mobile consumers—can affect the behaviour and productivity of recipient populations. Interspecific diversity among Pacific salmon species (Oncorhynchus spp.) creates staggered spawning events across space and time, thereby prolonging availability to terrestrial wildlife.

We sought to understand how such variation might influence consumption by terrestrial predators compared with resource abundance and intra‐ and interspecific competition.

Using stable isotope analysis, we investigated how the proportion of salmon in the annual diet of male black bears (Ursus americanus; n = 405) varies with species diversity and density of spawning salmon biomass, while also accounting for competition with sympatric black and grizzly bears (U. arctos horribilis), in coastal British Columbia, Canada.

We found that the proportion of salmon in the annual diet of black bears was ≈40% higher in the absence of grizzly bears, but detected little effect of relative black bear density and salmon biomass density. Rather, salmon diversity had the largest positive effect on consumption. On average, increasing diversity from one salmon species to ~four (with equal biomass contributions) approximately triples the proportion of salmon in diet.

Given the importance of salmon to bear life histories, this work provides early empirical support for how resource waves may increase the productivity of consumers at population and landscape scales. Accordingly, terrestrial wildlife management might consider maintaining not only salmon abundance but also diversity.