Ebola vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Strategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework

Multinational epidemics of emerging infectious diseases are increasingly common, due to anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems and the growing connectivity of human populations. Early and efficient vaccination can contain outbreaks and prevent mass mortality, but optimal vaccine stockpiling strategies are dependent on pathogen characteristics, reservoir ecology, and epidemic dynamics. Here, we model major regional outbreaks of Nipah virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and use these to develop a generalized framework for estimating vaccine stockpile needs based on spillover geography, spatially-heterogeneous healthcare capacity and spatially-distributed human mobility networks. Because outbreak sizes were highly skewed, we found that most outbreaks were readily contained (median stockpile estimate for MERS-CoV: 2,089 doses; Nipah: 1,882 doses), but the maximum estimated stockpile need in a highly unlikely large outbreak scenario was 2-3 orders of magnitude higher (MERS-CoV: ∼87,000 doses; Nipah ∼ 1.1 million doses). Sensitivity analysis revealed that stockpile needs were more dependent on basic epidemiological parameters (i.e., death and recovery rate) and healthcare availability than any uncertainty related to vaccine efficacy or deployment strategy. Our results highlight the value of descriptive epidemiology for real-world modeling applications, and suggest that stockpile allocation should consider ecological, epidemiological, and social dimensions of risk.

National burden of Ebola virus disease in Democratic Republic of the Congo: the urgency to act

Ebola virus disease (EVD) has long been a major public health concern for Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo). First identified in DR Congo in 1976, the country has witnessed more than 25 outbreaks of this deadly disease, which has a case fatality rate of nearly 90% and manifesting with symptoms such as diarrhoea, vomiting, stomachache and haemorrhagic fever. African fruit bats have been speculated to be the reservoir of this virus. DR Congo is currently facing another EVD outbreak simultaneously with other communicable diseases, rendering it vulnerable to a shortage of medical and paramedical staff along with distrust among remote communities towards local authorities due to armed conflict and political instability. Moreover, lack of ring vaccinations and inefficient surveillance of suspected individuals are some other significant hurdles in disease control. Despite the availability of rVSV-ZEBOV/Erbevo vaccine and many antibody-based vaccines, challenges including politicization, low access to remote communities, and illiteracy have limited their effectiveness. Recently, the Congolese govt. has put in efforts such as building local capacities at the health zone level, outbreak control intervention, community engagement and social mobilization to counter the rising EVD cases. Four successive Strategic Response Plans have been implemented to increase resource mobilization by DR Congo and her partners. The Spread of zoonotics such as EVD can be confronted by implementing the One Health approach, which involves medical staff, veterinarians and public health officials.

A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis. In this study, we employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze the spread of EVD during the early stages of an outbreak, with an emphasis on inherent risks. We developed a model that considers healthcare workers and unreported cases, and assessed the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) using actual data. Our results indicate that the implementation of NPIs led to a decrease in the transmission rate and infectious period by 30% and 40% respectively, following the declaration of the outbreak. We also investigated the risks associated with delayed outbreak recognition. Our simulations suggest that, when accounting for NPIs and recognition delays, prompt detection could have resulted in a similar outbreak scale, with approximately 50% of the baseline NPIs effect. Finally, we discussed the potential effects of a vaccination strategy as a follow-up measure after the outbreak declaration. Our findings suggest that a vaccination strategy can reduce both the burden of NPIs and the scale of the outbreak.

Mapping of susceptibility loci for Ebola virus pathogenesis in mice

Ebola virus (EBOV), a major global health concern, causes severe, often fatal EBOV disease (EVD) in humans. Host genetic variation plays a critical role, yet the identity of host susceptibility loci in mammals remains unknown. Using genetic reference populations, we generate an F2 mapping cohort to identify host susceptibility loci that regulate EVD. While disease-resistant mice display minimal pathogenesis, susceptible mice display severe liver pathology consistent with EVD-like disease and transcriptional signatures associated with inflammatory and liver metabolic processes. A significant quantitative trait locus (QTL) for virus RNA load in blood is identified in chromosome (chr)8, and a severe clinical disease and mortality QTL is mapped to chr7, which includes the Trim5 locus. Using knockout mice, we validate the Trim5 locus as one potential driver of liver failure and mortality after infection. The identification of susceptibility loci provides insight into molecular genetic mechanisms regulating EVD progression and severity, potentially informing therapeutics and vaccination strategies.

Rapid protection against viral infections by chemokine-accelerated post-exposure vaccination

Introduction

Prophylactic vaccines generate strong and durable immunity to avoid future infections, whereas post-exposure vaccinations are intended to establish rapid protection against already ongoing infections. Antiviral cytotoxic CD8+ T cells (CTL) are activated by dendritic cells (DCs), which themselves must be activated by adjuvants to express costimulatory molecules and so-called signal 0-chemokines that attract naive CTL to the DCs.

Hypothesis

Here we asked whether a vaccination protocol that combines two adjuvants, a toll-like receptor ligand (TLR) and a natural killer T cell activator, to induce two signal 0 chemokines, synergistically accelerates CTL activation.

Methods

We used a well-characterized vaccination model based on the model antigen ovalbumin, the TLR9 ligand CpG and the NKT cell ligand α-galactosylceramide to induce signal 0-chemokines. Exploiting this vaccination model, we studied detailed T cell kinetics and T cell profiling in different in vivo mouse models of viral infection.

Results

We found that CTL induced by both adjuvants obtained a head-start that allowed them to functionally differentiate further and generate higher numbers of protective CTL 1-2 days earlier. Such signal 0-optimized post-exposure vaccination hastened clearance of experimental adenovirus and cytomegalovirus infections.

Conclusion

Our findings show that signal 0 chemokine-inducing adjuvant combinations gain time in the race against rapidly replicating microbes, which may be especially useful in post-exposure vaccination settings during viral epi/pandemics.

Refined innate plasma signature after rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP immunization is shared among adult cohorts in Europe and North America

Background

During the last decade Ebola virus has caused several outbreaks in Africa. The recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-vectored Zaire Ebola (rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP) vaccine has proved safe and immunogenic but is reactogenic. We previously identified the first innate plasma signature response after vaccination in Geneva as composed of five monocyte-related biomarkers peaking at day 1 post-immunization that correlates with adverse events, biological outcomes (haematological changes and viremia) and antibody titers. In this follow-up study, we sought to identify additional biomarkers in the same Geneva cohort and validate those identified markers in a US cohort.

Methods

Additional biomarkers were identified using multiplexed protein biomarker platform O-link and confirmed by Luminex. Principal component analysis (PCA) evaluated if these markers could explain a higher variability of the vaccine response (and thereby refined the initial signature). Multivariable and linear regression models evaluated the correlations of the main components with adverse events, biological outcomes, and antibody titers. External validation of the refined signature was conducted in a second cohort of US vaccinees (n=142).

Results

Eleven additional biomarkers peaked at day 1 post-immunization: MCP2, MCP3, MCP4, CXCL10, OSM, CX3CL1, MCSF, CXCL11, TRAIL, RANKL and IL15. PCA analysis retained three principal components (PC) that accounted for 79% of the vaccine response variability. PC1 and PC2 were very robust and had different biomarkers that contributed to their variability. PC1 better discriminated different doses, better defined the risk of fever and myalgia, while PC2 better defined the risk of headache. We also found new biomarkers that correlated with reactogenicity, including transient arthritis (MCP-2, CXCL10, CXCL11, CX3CL1, MCSF, IL-15, OSM). Several innate biomarkers are associated with antibody levels one and six months after vaccination. Refined PC1 correlated strongly in both data sets (Geneva: r = 0.97, P < 0.001; US: r = 0.99, P< 0.001).

Conclusion

Eleven additional biomarkers refined the previously found 5-biomarker Geneva signature. The refined signature better discriminated between different doses, was strongly associated with the risk of adverse events and with antibody responses and was validated in a separate cohort.

Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease

Health emergencies caused by epidemic-prone pathogens (EPPs) have increased exponentially in recent decades. Although vaccines have proven beneficial, they are unavailable for many pathogens. Furthermore, achieving timely and equitable access to vaccines against EPPs is not trivial. It requires decision-makers to capture numerous interrelated factors across temporal and spatial scales, with significant uncertainties, variability, delays, and feedback loops that give rise to dynamic and unexpected behavior. Therefore, despite progress in filling R&D gaps, the path to licensure and the long-term viability of vaccines against EPPs continues to be unclear. This paper presents a quantitative system dynamics modeling framework to evaluate the long-term sustainability of vaccine supply under different vaccination strategies. Data from both literature and 50 expert interviews are used to model the supply and demand of a prototypical Ebolavirus Zaire (EBOV) vaccine. Specifically, the case study evaluates dynamics associated with proactive vaccination ahead of an outbreak of similar magnitude as the 2018-2020 epidemic in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The scenarios presented demonstrate how uncertainties (e.g., duration of vaccine-induced protection) and design criteria (e.g., priority geographies and groups, target coverage, frequency of boosters) lead to important tradeoffs across policy aims, public health outcomes, and feasibility (e.g., technical, operational, financial). With sufficient context and data, the framework provides a foundation to apply the model to a broad range of additional geographies and priority pathogens. Furthermore, the ability to identify leverage points for long-term preparedness offers directions for further research.

Perceptions and Rumors About the Ebola Virus Disease Vaccine in the Ituri and Kivu Provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Perceptions and rumors about vaccinations can contribute to vaccine hesitancy. This study aimed to examine perceptions and rumors about the Ebola vaccine during the 10th Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in the Ituri and North Kivu provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Eight hundred randomly selected respondents were surveyed with a uniform structured questionnaire. Further, we collected qualitative data through focus group discussions and using in-depth interview guides. Results revealed several misperceptions and rumors about the vaccine, which led to some level of vaccine hesitancy and refusal among the people. The acceptance rate of the vaccine was 67.3% (below the 80% threshold needed to create herd immunity in the population). More of the urban population (31.3%) than the rural population (10.4%) accepted the vaccine. Refusals were largely due to fear that the vaccine could activate other diseases in the body and could even kill. Some feared that it was a conspiracy of the government to reduce the population in the study area through forced fertility control and death, among other such concerns. In conclusion, these rumors increased mistrust, which challenged the efforts of the government and its partners to safeguard the health of the people.

Targeted preventive vaccination campaigns to reduce Ebola outbreaks: An individual-based modeling study

INTRODUCTION

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) and ring vaccination (i.e., vaccination that primarily targets contacts and contacts of contacts of Ebola cases) are currently used to reduce the spread of Ebola during outbreaks. Because these measures are typically initiated after an outbreak is declared, they are limited by real-time implementation challenges. Preventive vaccination may provide a complementary option to help protect communities against unpredictable outbreaks. This study aimed to assess the impact of preventive vaccination strategies when implemented in conjunction with NPI and ring vaccination.

METHODS

A spatial-explicit, individual-based model (IBM) that accounts for heterogeneity of human contact, human movement, and timing of interventions was built to represent Ebola transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Simulated preventive vaccination strategies targeted healthcare workers (HCW), frontline workers (FW), and the general population (GP) with varying levels of coverage (lower coverage: 30% of HCW/FW, 5% of GP; higher coverage: 60% of HCW/FW, 10% of GP) and efficacy (lower efficacy: 60%; higher efficacy: 90%).

RESULTS

The IBM estimated that the addition of preventive vaccination for HCW reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by ∼11 % to ∼25 % compared with NPI + ring vaccination alone. Including HCW and FW in the preventive vaccination campaign yielded ∼14 % to ∼38 % improvements in epidemic outcomes. Further including the GP yielded the greatest improvements, with ∼21 % to ∼52 % reductions in epidemic outcomes compared with NPI + ring vaccination alone. In a scenario without ring vaccination, preventive vaccination reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by ∼28 % to ∼59 % compared with NPI alone. In all scenarios, preventive vaccination reduced Ebola transmission particularly during the initial phases of the epidemic, resulting in flatter epidemic curves.

CONCLUSIONS

The IBM showed that preventive vaccination may reduce Ebola cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, thus safeguarding the healthcare system and providing more time to implement additional interventions during an outbreak.

Prevalence of malaria and helminth infections in rural communities in northern Sierra Leone, a baseline study to inform Ebola vaccine study protocols

Introduction

Recurrent parasitic infections may influence the immune response to vaccines. In the Partnership for Research on Ebola VACcinations extended follow-UP and clinical research capacity build-UP (PREVAC-UP) study being undertaken in Mambolo, northern Sierra Leone, participants are being followed up to assess the potential impact of exposure to malaria and/or helminth infections on long-term immune response to two Ebola vaccines. To support the development of the assays that will be used in this evaluation, a parasitological survey was conducted in Mambolo between November 2019 and February 2020.

Methods

Healthy individuals aged ≥1 year who were resident in Mambolo Chiefdom were selected using a stratified sampling approach and questionnaires were administered to explore their sociodemographic characteristics. Microscopy was used to detect malaria parasites, intestinal helminths and urinary schistosome infections. Rapid blood tests were used to detect infections with Onchocerca volvulus and Wuchereria bancrofti. We estimated the overall prevalence of these infections and used adjusted logistic regression models to explore risk factors for malaria and hookworm infection.

Results

Eight hundred and fifteen (815) residents, 50.9% of whom were female were surveyed. Overall, 309 (39.1%) of 791 persons tested for malaria had a positive blood slide; Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species. Helminth infection was detected in 122 (15.0%) of 815 stool samples including three mixed infections. The helminth infections comprised 102 (12.5%) cases of hookworm, 11 (1.3%) cases of Trichuris trichiura, 10 (1.2%) cases of Schistosoma mansoni and two (0.2%) cases of Ascaris lumbricoides. Being male (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.15–3.50) and residing in a non-riverine community (OR = 4.02, 95%CI 2.32–6.98) were the factors associated with hookworm infection. Onchocerca volvulus and Wuchereria bancrofti infections were found in 3.3% and 0.4% of participants respectively.

Conclusion

Malaria and hookworm are the most prevalent parasite infections and those most likely to influence long-term immune response to Ebola vaccines among the trial participants.

Projecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens

BACKGROUND

Despite large outbreaks in humans seeming improbable for a number of zoonotic pathogens, several pose a concern due to their epidemiological characteristics and evolutionary potential. To enable effective responses to these pathogens in the event that they undergo future emergence, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations is advancing the development of vaccines for several pathogens prioritized by the World Health Organization. A major challenge in this pursuit is anticipating demand for a vaccine stockpile to support outbreak response.

METHODS

We developed a modeling framework for outbreak response for emerging zoonoses under three reactive vaccination strategies to assess sustainable vaccine manufacturing needs, vaccine stockpile requirements, and the potential impact of the outbreak response. This framework incorporates geographically variable zoonotic spillover rates, human-to-human transmission, and the implementation of reactive vaccination campaigns in response to disease outbreaks. As proof of concept, we applied the framework to four priority pathogens: Lassa virus, Nipah virus, MERS coronavirus, and Rift Valley virus.

RESULTS

Annual vaccine regimen requirements for a population-wide strategy ranged from > 670,000 (95% prediction interval 0-3,630,000) regimens for Lassa virus to 1,190,000 (95% PrI 0-8,480,000) regimens for Rift Valley fever virus, while the regimens required for ring vaccination or targeting healthcare workers (HCWs) were several orders of magnitude lower (between 1/25 and 1/700) than those required by a population-wide strategy. For each pathogen and vaccination strategy, reactive vaccination typically prevented fewer than 10% of cases, because of their presently low R₀ values. Targeting HCWs had a higher per-regimen impact than population-wide vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our framework provides a flexible methodology for estimating vaccine stockpile needs and the geographic distribution of demand under a range of outbreak response scenarios. Uncertainties in our model estimates highlight several knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to target vulnerable populations more accurately. These include surveillance gaps that mask the true geographic distribution of each pathogen, details of key routes of spillover from animal reservoirs to humans, and the role of human-to-human transmission outside of healthcare settings. In addition, our estimates are based on the current epidemiology of each pathogen, but pathogen evolution could alter vaccine stockpile requirements.

Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease

Rapid diagnostic tools for children with Ebola virus disease (EVD) are needed to expedite isolation and treatment. To evaluate a predictive diagnostic tool, we examined retrospective data (2014-2015) from the International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in West Africa. We incorporated statistically derived candidate predictors into a 7-point Pediatric Ebola Risk Score. Evidence of bleeding or having known or no known Ebola contacts was positively associated with an EVD diagnosis, whereas abdominal pain was negatively associated. Model discrimination using area under the curve (AUC) was 0.87, which outperforms the World Health Organization criteria (AUC 0.56). External validation, performed by using data from International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2018-2019, showed an AUC of 0.70. External validation showed that discrimination achieved by using World Health Organization criteria was similar; however, the Pediatric Ebola Risk Score is simpler to use.

Economic evaluation using dynamic transition modeling of ebola virus vaccination in lower-and-middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

With the increasing occurrence of infectious diseases in lower-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), emergency preparedness is essential for rapid response and mitigation. Economic evaluations of mitigation technologies and strategies have been recommended for inclusion in emergency preparedness plans. We aimed to perform an economic evaluation using dynamic transition modeling of ebola virus disease (EVD) vaccination in a hypothetical community of 1,000 persons in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

METHOD

Using a modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, with Death added [SEIR-D]) model that accounted for death and epidemiological data from an EVD outbreak in the DRC, we modeled the transmission of EVD in a hypothetical population of 1,000. With our model, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of an EVD vaccine and an EVD vaccination intervention.

RESULTS

The results showed vaccinating 50% of the population at risk prevented 670 cases, 538 deaths, and 22,022 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The vaccine was found to be cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $95.63 per DALY averted. We also determined the minimum required vaccination coverage for cost-effectiveness to be 40%. Sensitivity analysis showed our model to be fairly robust, assuring relatively consistent results even with variations in such input parameters as cost of screening, as well as transmission, infection, incubation, and case fatality rates.

CONCLUSION

EVD vaccination in our hypothetical population was found to be cost-effective from the payer perspective. Our model presents an efficient and reliable approach for conducting economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions as part of an emergency preparedness plan.

The Role of Animal Research in Pandemic Responses

The significant advances made by the global scientific community during the COVID-19 pandemic, exemplified by the development of multiple SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in less than 1 y, were made possible in part because of animal research. Historically, animals have been used to study the characterization, treatment, and prevention of most of the major infectious disease outbreaks that humans have faced. From the advent of modern 'germ theory' prior to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic through the more recent Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks, research that uses animals has revealed or supported key discoveries in disease pathogenesis and therapy development, helping to save lives during crises. Here we summarize the role of animal research in past pandemic and epidemic response efforts, as well as current and future considerations for animal research in the context of infectious disease research.

Characterizing human mobility patterns in rural settings of sub-Saharan Africa

Human mobility is a core component of human behavior and its quantification is critical for understanding its impact on infectious disease transmission, traffic forecasting, access to resources and care, intervention strategies, and migratory flows. When mobility data are limited, spatial interaction models have been widely used to estimate human travel, but have not been extensively validated in low- and middle-income settings. Geographic, sociodemographic, and infrastructure differences may impact the ability for models to capture these patterns, particularly in rural settings. Here, we analyzed mobility patterns inferred from mobile phone data in four Sub-Saharan African countries to investigate the ability for variants on gravity and radiation models to estimate travel. Adjusting the gravity model such that parameters were fit to different trip types, including travel between more or less populated areas and/or different regions, improved model fit in all four countries. This suggests that alternative models may be more useful in these settings and better able to capture the range of mobility patterns observed.

Vesicular Stomatitis Virus: From Agricultural Pathogen to Vaccine Vector

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), which belongs to the Vesiculovirus genus of the family Rhabdoviridae, is a well studied livestock pathogen and prototypic non-segmented, negative-sense RNA virus. Although VSV is responsible for causing economically significant outbreaks of vesicular stomatitis in cattle, horses, and swine, the virus also represents a valuable research tool for molecular biologists and virologists. Indeed, the establishment of a reverse genetics system for the recovery of infectious VSV from cDNA transformed the utility of this virus and paved the way for its use as a vaccine vector. A highly effective VSV-based vaccine against Ebola virus recently received clinical approval, and many other VSV-based vaccines have been developed, particularly for high-consequence viruses. This review seeks to provide a holistic but concise overview of VSV, covering the virus's ascension from perennial agricultural scourge to promising medical countermeasure, with a particular focus on vaccines.

Viewpoint of a WHO Advisory Group Tasked to Consider Establishing a Closely-monitored Challenge Model of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Healthy Volunteers

WHO convened an Advisory Group (AG) to consider the feasibility, potential value, and limitations of establishing a closely-monitored challenge model of experimental severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in healthy adult volunteers. The AG included experts in design, establishment, and performance of challenges. This report summarizes issues that render a COVID-19 model daunting to establish (the potential of SARS-CoV-2 to cause severe/fatal illness, its high transmissibility, and lack of a "rescue treatment" to prevent progression from mild/moderate to severe clinical illness) and it proffers prudent strategies for stepwise model development, challenge virus selection, guidelines for manufacturing challenge doses, and ways to contain SARS-CoV-2 and prevent transmission to household/community contacts. A COVID-19 model could demonstrate protection against virus shedding and/or illness induced by prior SARS-CoV-2 challenge or vaccination. A limitation of the model is that vaccine efficacy in experimentally challenged healthy young adults cannot per se be extrapolated to predict efficacy in elderly/high-risk adults.

[Ebola, the first vaccines available]

In the recent years, Ebola virus has been responsible for several major epidemics. Research efforts have allowed the development and evaluation in the field of several vaccine candidates. At present, two of them are already approved and used in the fight against the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This review aims to describe the different candidates, the clinical trials that have been conducted as well as the first results in the field.

Controlling emerging zoonoses at the animal-human interface

BACKGROUND

For many emerging or re-emerging pathogens, cases in humans arise from a mixture of introductions (via zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs or geographic spillover from endemic regions) and secondary human-to-human transmission. Interventions aiming to reduce incidence of these infections can be focused on preventing spillover or reducing human-to-human transmission, or sometimes both at once, and typically are governed by resource constraints that require policymakers to make choices. Despite increasing emphasis on using mathematical models to inform disease control policies, little attention has been paid to guiding rational disease control at the animal-human interface.

METHODS

We introduce a modeling framework to analyze the impacts of different disease control policies, focusing on pathogens exhibiting subcritical transmission among humans (i.e. pathogens that cannot establish sustained human-to-human transmission). We quantify the relative effectiveness of measures to reduce spillover (e.g. reducing contact with animal hosts), human-to-human transmission (e.g. case isolation), or both at once (e.g. vaccination), across a range of epidemiological contexts.

RESULTS

We provide guidelines for choosing which mode of control to prioritize in different epidemiological scenarios and considering different levels of resource and relative costs. We contextualize our analysis with current zoonotic pathogens and other subcritical pathogens, such as post-elimination measles, and control policies that have been applied.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work provides a model-based, theoretical foundation to understand and guide policy for subcritical zoonoses, integrating across disciplinary and species boundaries in a manner consistent with One Health principles.

Spray dried VSV-vectored vaccine is thermally stable and immunologically active in vivo

Effective vaccine delivery and coverage to rural and resource-poor countries is hindered by the dependence on cold chain storage. As such, developments of cold chain-free technologies are highly sought. Although spray dried adenoviral vectors have shown long term stability at ambient temperatures and relatively low humidity, it remains to be determined whether similar excipient formulations are applicable to other viral vectors. To address this, we have spray dried vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV)-vectors with a panel of well-characterized sugar excipients to determine the optimal formulation for vector stabilization. Upon reconstitution, we show that trehalose conferred superior stability of VSV both in vitro and in vivo. Importantly, following cold chain-free storage at elevated temperatures at 37 °C for 15 days, we show that a VSV-vectored vaccine retains its in vivo immunogenicity, whereas a liquid control completely lost its immune-stimulating ability. Our results provide foundational evidence that spray drying with properly tested excipients can stabilize viral vectors such as VSV, allowing them to be stored long-term at elevated temperatures without dependency on cold chain conditions.

Mobility restrictions for the control of epidemics: When do they work?

Background

Mobility restrictions—trade and travel bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires—are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this kind were important in the response to epidemics of SARS (2003), H1N1 influenza (2009), Ebola (2014) and, currently in the containment of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, they do not always work as expected.

Methods

To determine when mobility restrictions reduce the size of an epidemic, we use a model of disease transmission within and between economically heterogeneous locally connected communities. One community comprises a low-risk, low-density population with access to effective medical resources. The other comprises a high-risk, high-density population without access to effective medical resources.

Findings

Unrestricted mobility between the two risk communities increases the number of secondary cases in the low-risk community but reduces the overall epidemic size. By contrast, the imposition of a cordon sanitaire around the high-risk community reduces the number of secondary infections in the low-risk community but increases the overall epidemic size.

Interpretation

Mobility restrictions may not be an effective policy for controlling the spread of an infectious disease if it is assessed by the overall final epidemic size. Patterns of mobility established through the independent mobility and trade decisions of people in both communities may be sufficient to contain epidemics.

The C-Terminal Domain of the Sudan Ebolavirus L Protein Is Essential for RNA Binding and Methylation

The large (L) protein of Ebola virus is a key protein for virus replication. Its N-terminal region harbors the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase activity, and its C terminus contains a cap assembling line composed of a capping domain and a methyltransferase domain (MTase) followed by a C-terminal domain (CTD) of unknown function. The L protein MTase catalyzes methylation at the 2'-O and N-7 positions of the cap structures. In addition, the MTase of Ebola virus can induce cap-independent internal adenosine 2'-O-methylation. In this work, we investigated the CTD role in the regulation of the cap-dependent and cap-independent MTase activities of the L protein. We found that the CTD, which is enriched in basic amino acids, plays a key role in RNA binding and in turn regulates the different MTase activities. We demonstrated that the mutation of CTD residues modulates specifically the different MTase activities. Altogether, our results highlight the pivotal role of the L protein CTD in the control of viral RNA methylation, which is critical for Ebola virus replication and escape from the innate response in infected cells.IMPORTANCE Ebola virus infects human and nonhuman primates, causing severe infections that are often fatal. The epidemics, in West and Central Africa, emphasize the urgent need to develop antiviral therapies. The Ebola virus large protein (L), which is the central protein for viral RNA replication/transcription, harbors a methyltransferase domain followed by a C-terminal domain of unknown function. We show that the C-terminal domain regulates the L protein methyltransferase activities and consequently participates in viral replication and escape of the host innate immunity.

Impact of prophylactic vaccination strategies on Ebola virus transmission: A modeling analysis

Ebola epidemics constitute serious public health emergencies. Multiple vaccines are under development to prevent these epidemics and avoid the associated morbidity and mortality. Assessing the potential impact of these vaccines on morbidity and mortality of Ebola is essential for devising prevention strategies. A mean-field compartmental stochastic model was developed for this purpose and validated by simulating the 2014 Sierra Leone epidemic. We assessed the impacts of prophylactic vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) both alone and in combination with the vaccination of the general population (entire susceptible population other than HCW). The model simulated 8,706 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 478–21,942) cases and 3,575 (95%CI: 179–9,031) deaths in Sierra Leone, in line with WHO-reported statistics for the 2014 epidemic (8,704 cases and 3,587 deaths). Relative to this base case, the model then estimated that prophylactic vaccination of only 10% of HCW will avert 12% (95% CI: 6%-14%) of overall cases and deaths, while vaccination of 30% of HCW will avert 34% of overall cases (95% CI: 30%-64%) and deaths (95% CI: 30%-65%). Prophylactic vaccination of 1% and 5% of the general population in addition to vaccinating 30% of HCW was estimated to result in reduction in cases by 44% (95% CI: 39%-61%) and 72% (95% CI: 68%-84%) respectively, and deaths by 45% (95% CI: 40%-61%) and 74% (95% CI: 70%-85%) respectively. Prophylactic vaccination of even small proportions of HCW is estimated to significantly reduce incidence of Ebola and associated mortality. The effect is greatly enhanced by the additional vaccination even of small percentages of the general population. These findings could be used to inform the planning of prevention strategies.

Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case-fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013-2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.

Delayed recognition of Ebola virus disease is associated with longer and larger outbreaks

The average time required to detect an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak following spillover of Ebola virus (EBOV) to a primary human case has remained essentially unchanged for over 40 years, with some of the longest delays in detection occurring in recent decades. In this review, our aim was to examine the relationship between delays in detection of EVD and the duration and size of outbreaks, and we report that longer delays are associated with longer and larger EVD outbreaks. Historically, EVD outbreaks have typically been comprised of less than 100 cases (median = 60) and have lasted less than 4 months (median = 118 days). The ongoing outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo, together with the 2013–2016 west Africa outbreak, are stark outliers amidst these trends and had two of the longest delays in detection on record. While significant progress has been made in the development of EVD countermeasures, implementation during EVD outbreaks is problematic. Thus, EVD surveillance must be improved by the broad deployment of modern diagnostic tools, as prompt recognition of EVD has the potential to stem early transmission and ultimately limit the duration and size of outbreaks.

The 2018/19 Ebola epidemic the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): epidemiology, outbreak control, and conflict

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (formerly Zaire) was the location of the first Ebola outbreak, in 1976, and since then there have been a total of ten outbreaks in different parts of the country. The current outbreak, the first in eastern DRC (North Kivu and Ituri provinces), began in July 2018, and by December 2019, there had been 3262 cases and 2232 deaths. Within weeks of the first reported cases, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the DRC Ministry of Health (MOH) initiated a major response programme, with laboratory support, international agencies providing personnel, and material resources. Unlike previous Ebola outbreaks, including the west Africa epidemic, a proven vaccine, and trial therapeutic agents have been available as part of the outbreak response. Two therapeutic agents, mAb114 and REGN-EB3, both monoclonal antibody derived, have shown case fatality rates (CFR) of around 30%, compared to the overall of 66%. Despite these positive interventions, the outbreak has continued for eighteen months. Underlying the outbreak response has been a high number of violent incidents by local militias, and community mistrust and lack of involvement that has hampered many aspects of the response programme. As a result, many cases are not reported early and not transferred to treatment centres, deaths and increased transmission occur in the community, and the response programme is reaching only a proportion of the cases. New strategies to improve community participation, and integrate the Ebola response into the existing health structure are planned to improve the programme effectiveness.

Vaccination strategies to control Ebola epidemics in the context of variable household inaccessibility levels

Despite a very effective vaccine, active conflict and community distrust during the ongoing DRC Ebola epidemic are undermining control efforts, including a ring vaccination strategy that requires the prompt immunization of close contacts of infected individuals. However, in April 2019, it was reported 20% or more of close contacts cannot be reached or refuse vaccination, and it is predicted that the ring vaccination strategy would not be effective with such a high level of inaccessibility. The vaccination strategy is now incorporating a “third ring” community-level vaccination that targets members of communities even if they are not known contacts of Ebola cases. To assess the impact of vaccination strategies for controlling Ebola epidemics in the context of variable levels of community accessibility, we employed an individual-level stochastic transmission model that incorporates four sources of heterogeneity: a proportion of the population is inaccessible for contact tracing and vaccination due to lack of confidence in interventions or geographic inaccessibility, two levels of population mixing resembling household and community transmission, two types of vaccine doses with different time periods until immunity, and transmission rates that depend on spatial distance. Our results indicate that a ring vaccination strategy alone would not be effective for containing the epidemic in the context of significant delays to vaccinating contacts even for low levels of household inaccessibility and affirm the positive impact of a supplemental community vaccination strategy. Our key results are that as levels of inaccessibility increase, there is a qualitative change in the effectiveness of the vaccination strategy. For higher levels of vaccine access, the probability that the epidemic will end steadily increases over time, even if probabilities are lower than they would be otherwise with full community participation. For levels of vaccine access that are too low, however, the vaccination strategies are not expected to be successful in ending the epidemic even though they help lower incidence levels, which saves lives, and makes the epidemic easier to contain and reduces spread to other communities. This qualitative change occurs for both types of vaccination strategies: ring vaccination is effective for containing an outbreak until the levels of inaccessibility exceeds approximately 10% in the context of significant delays to vaccinating contacts, a combined ring and community vaccination strategy is effective until the levels of inaccessibility exceeds approximately 50%. More broadly, our results underscore the need to enhance community engagement to public health interventions in order to enhance the effectiveness of control interventions to ensure outbreak containment.

In the context of the ongoing Ebola epidemic in DRC, active conflict and community distrust are undermining control efforts, including vaccination strategies. In this paper, we employed an individual-level stochastic structured transmission model to assess the impact of vaccination strategies on epidemic control in the context of variable levels of household inaccessibility. We found that a ring vaccination strategy of close contacts would not be effective for containing the epidemic in the context of significant delays to vaccinating contacts even for low levels of household inaccessibility and evaluate the impact of a supplemental community vaccination strategy. For lower levels of inaccessibility, the probability of epidemic containment increases over time. For higher levels of inaccessibility, even the combined ring and community vaccination strategies are not expected to contain the epidemic even though they help lower incidence levels, which saves lives, makes the epidemic easier to contain and reduces spread to other communities. We found that ring vaccination is effective for containing an outbreak until the levels of inaccessibility exceeds approximately 10%, a combined ring and community vaccination strategy is effective until the levels of inaccessibility exceeds approximately 50%. Our findings underscore the need to enhance community engagement to public health interventions.

A new twenty-first century science for effective epidemic response

With rapidly changing ecology, urbanization, climate change, increased travel and fragile public health systems, epidemics will become more frequent, more complex and harder to prevent and contain. Here we argue that our concept of epidemics must evolve from crisis response during discrete outbreaks to an integrated cycle of preparation, response and recovery. This is an opportunity to combine knowledge and skills from all over the world-especially at-risk and affected communities. Many disciplines need to be integrated, including not only epidemiology but also social sciences, research and development, diplomacy, logistics and crisis management. This requires a new approach to training tomorrow's leaders in epidemic prevention and response.

The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The interplay between civil unrest and disease transmission is not well understood. Violence targeting healthcare workers and Ebola treatment centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been thwarting the case isolation, treatment, and vaccination efforts. The extent to which conflict impedes public health response and contributes to incidence has not previously been evaluated. We construct a timeline of conflict events throughout the course of the epidemic and provide an ethnographic appraisal of the local conditions that preceded and followed conflict events. Informed by temporal incidence and conflict data as well as the ethnographic evidence, we developed a model of Ebola transmission and control to assess the impact of conflict on the epidemic in the eastern DRC from April 30, 2018, to June 23, 2019. We found that both the rapidity of case isolation and the population-level effectiveness of vaccination varied notably as a result of preceding unrest and subsequent impact of conflict events. Furthermore, conflict events were found to reverse an otherwise declining phase of the epidemic trajectory. Our model framework can be extended to other infectious diseases in the same and other regions of the world experiencing conflict and violence.

Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

Modelling microbial infection to address global health challenges

The continued growth of the world’s population and increased interconnectivity heighten the risk that infectious diseases pose for human health worldwide. Epidemiological modelling is a tool that can be used to mitigate this risk by predicting disease spread or quantifying the impact of different intervention strategies on disease transmission dynamics. We illustrate how four decades of methodological advances and improved data quality have facilitated the contribution of modelling to address global health challenges, exemplified by models for the HIV crisis, emerging pathogens and pandemic preparedness. Throughout, we discuss the importance of designing a model that is appropriate to the research question and the available data. We highlight pitfalls that can arise in model development, validation and interpretation. Close collaboration between empiricists and modellers continues to improve the accuracy of predictions and the optimization of models for public health decision-making.