Validity of administrative codes associated with cirrhosis in Sweden

Statin initiation after myocardial infarction in patients with alcohol-related liver disease: A nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Secondary prevention with statins improves clinical outcomes after myocardial infarction (MI). We aimed to compare odds of statin initiation after MI in patients with co-existing alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) to the general population, and the association between statin initiation and mortality in the patients with ALD.

METHODS

All statin-naïve patients with ALD and a first-time MI between 2006 and 2020 were identified from Swedish healthcare registers and matched for age, sex, and year of MI with up to ten ALD-free general population controls with a first-time MI. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for statin initiation within 30 days after MI for ALD patients versus controls. Cox regression was used in patients with ALD to compare mortality between statin initiators and non-initiators.

RESULTS

Of the 276 patients with a first-time MI and ALD, 206 (74.6%) were male, the median age was 67 (interquartile range 62-72), 151 (54.7%) had cirrhosis, and 62 (22.5%) had decompensated cirrhosis. 1769 matched controls were included. Initiation of statins was less common in ALD patients (50.0%) than controls (89.2%, adjusted OR = .15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .10-.20). Among patients with ALD, statin initiators and non-initiators were followed for a median of 3.9 (interquartile range = 1.8-7.7) and 1.9 years (interquartile range = .5-4.4), respectively. Statin initiators had lower mortality than non-initiators (adjusted hazard ratio = .41, 95%CI = .28-.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with ALD less often initiated statins after MI than the general population. Statin initiation was associated with improved survival, suggesting that patients with ALD might be undertreated following MI.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease has become the most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in Sweden: A nationwide cohort study

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally, and can lead to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a leading cause of cancer-related death. We aimed to determine the extent to which MASLD is an increasing cause of HCC in Sweden and to determine clinical characteristics associated with underlying MASLD. Using the Swedish quality registry for liver cancer (SweLiv), we identified all adults with a diagnosis of HCC in Sweden between 2012 and 2018. Baseline data were retrieved from SweLiv and other nationwide registers. Totally, 3494 patients with HCC were identified. Of them, 757 patients (22%) had MASLD-HCC. The proportion with MASLD-HCC increased from 19% in 2012 to 25% in 2018 (ptrend = 0.012), and MASLD was since 2017 the leading cause of HCC, surpassing hepatitis C. MASLD was the fastest growing cause of HCC with a 33% increment during the study period. Compared to other patients with HCC, those with MASLD-HCC were older (75 vs. 67 years, p < .001), less commonly had cirrhosis (61% vs. 82%, p < .001), had larger tumours (median 5.5 vs. 4.3 cm, p < .001), and more often extrahepatic metastasis (22% vs. 16%, p < .001). Patients with HCC caused by MASLD or by other causes were equally likely to be diagnosed in an early stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer 0-A, 27% vs. 30%, p = .129). MASLD is now the leading cause of HCC in Sweden.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Apixaban, Rivaroxaban, and Warfarin in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation : A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Apixaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin have shown benefit for preventing major ischemic events, albeit with increased bleeding risk, among patients in the general population with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, data are scarce in patients with cirrhosis and AF.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness and safety of apixaban versus rivaroxaban and versus warfarin in patients with cirrhosis and AF.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Two U.S. claims data sets (Medicare and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database [2013 to 2022]).

PARTICIPANTS

1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched patients with cirrhosis and nonvalvular AF initiating use of apixaban, rivaroxaban, or warfarin.

MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcomes included ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and major hemorrhage (intracranial hemorrhage or major gastrointestinal bleeding). Database-specific and pooled PS-matched rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years (PY) and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were estimated, controlling for 104 preexposure covariates.

RESULTS

Rivaroxaban initiators had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhagic events than apixaban initiators (RD, 33.1 per 1000 PY [95% CI, 12.9 to 53.2 per 1000 PY]; HR, 1.47 [CI, 1.11 to 1.94]) but no significant differences in rates of ischemic events or death. Consistently higher rates of major hemorrhage were found with rivaroxaban across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Warfarin initiators also had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhage than apixaban initiators (RD, 26.1 per 1000 PY [CI, 6.8 to 45.3 per 1000 PY]; HR, 1.38 [CI, 1.03 to 1.84]), particularly hemorrhagic stroke (RD, 9.7 per 1000 PY [CI, 2.2 to 17.2 per 1000 PY]; HR, 2.85 [CI, 1.24 to 6.59]).

LIMITATION

Nonrandomized treatment selection.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with cirrhosis and nonvalvular AF, initiators of rivaroxaban versus apixaban had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhage and similar rates of ischemic events and death. Initiation of warfarin versus apixaban also contributed to significantly higher rates of major hemorrhagic events, including hemorrhagic stroke.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Validating new coding algorithms to improve identification of alcohol-associated and nonalcohol-associated cirrhosis hospitalizations in administrative databases

BACKGROUND

Alcohol (AC) and nonalcohol-associated cirrhosis (NAC) epidemiology studies are limited by available case definitions. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of previous and newly developed case definitions to identify AC and NAC hospitalizations.

METHODS

We randomly selected 700 hospitalizations from the 2008 to 2022 Canadian Discharge Abstract Database with alcohol-associated and cirrhosis-related International Classification of Diseases 10th revision codes. We compared standard approaches for AC (ie, AC code alone and alcohol use disorder and nonspecific cirrhosis codes together) and NAC (ie, NAC codes alone) case identification to newly developed approaches that combine standard approaches with new code combinations. Using electronic medical record review as the reference standard, we calculated case definition positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, specificity, and AUROC.

RESULTS

Electronic medical records were available for 671 admissions; 252 had confirmed AC and 195 NAC. Compared to previous AC definitions, the newly developed algorithm selecting for the AC code, alcohol-associated hepatic failure code, or alcohol use disorder code with a decompensated cirrhosis-related condition or NAC code provided the best overall positive predictive value (91%, 95% CI: 87-95), negative predictive value (89%, CI: 86-92), sensitivity (81%, CI: 76-86), specificity (96%, CI: 93-97), and AUROC (0.88, CI: 0.85-0.91). Comparing all evaluated NAC definitions, high sensitivity (92%, CI: 87-95), specificity (82%, CI: 79-86), negative predictive value (96%, CI: 94-98), AUROC (0.87, CI: 0.84-0.90), but relatively low positive predictive value (68%, CI: 62-74) were obtained by excluding alcohol use disorder codes and using either a NAC code in any diagnostic position or a primary diagnostic code for HCC, unspecified/chronic hepatic failure, esophageal varices without bleeding, or hepatorenal syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

New case definitions show enhanced accuracy for identifying hospitalizations for AC and NAC compared to previously used approaches.

Persons with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease are at increased risk of severe depression

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Few population-based studies have investigated the association between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and depression. Additionally, it remains unclear if depression affects progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in MASLD.

METHODS

All patients in Sweden with newly diagnosed MASLD between 2006 and 2020 were identified from the National Patient Register. Each patient was matched on age, sex, inclusion year, and municipality with up to 10 comparators from the general population. Cox regression was used to compare rates of severe depression in persons with MASLD to the comparators. In persons with MASLD, Cox regression was used to estimate rates of MALO using severe depression before baseline or diagnosed during follow-up as a time-varying exposure.

RESULTS

We included 11 301 persons with MASLD and 104 205 comparators who were followed for a median of 3.9 (IQR 1.5-7.6) and 4.9 years (IQR 2.3-8.7), respectively. The median age was 56 years and 5576 of 11 301 (49.3%) persons with MASLD were male. Incident severe depression developed in 228 of 11 301 (2.0%) persons with MASLD and 1160 of 104 205 (1.1%) comparators (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.5-2.1). Of persons with MASLD, 25 of 1229 (2.0%) of those with severe depression before or after baseline progressed to MALO compared to 322 of 10 326 (3.1%) of those without severe depression (fully adjusted HR = 1.0, 95% CI = .6-1.5).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm an association between MASLD and severe depression. However, no association between severe depression and incident MALO was found, but conclusions are limited by few observed outcomes.

Impact of Cirrhosis Etiology on the Risk for Venous Thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is associated with an increased risk for both bleeding and venous thromboembolic (VTE) complications. The data regarding the impact of etiology of cirrhosis on VTE risk is poorly understood.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational analysis of the US Nationwide readmissions database 2019, we identified hospitalized patients who had cirrhosis from alcohol, viral, or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) etiologies. We identified patients who had acute VTE, chronic/history of VTE, and portal venous thrombosis (PVT). Overall VTE risk was defined as the composite of acute and chronic VTE or PVT. The impact of etiology of cirrhosis on the crude and risk adjusted rates of VTE and PVT was studied.

RESULTS

Of 432,383 patients with cirrhosis, 41.4% patients had NASH-cirrhosis, 39.7% had alcohol-related cirrhosis, and 18.9% had viral cirrhosis. The overall VTE rate was highest in patients with NASH cirrhosis (10.8%) followed by viral cirrhosis (9.7%) and alcohol-related cirrhosis (7.5%; P < 0.001). Similar results were observed for acute and chronic VTE. After risk adjustment, patients with NASH (OR 1.48 95% CI 1.42-1.54) and viral cirrhosis (OR 1.22 95% CI 1.17-1.29) had significantly higher overall VTE risk compared with alcohol-related cirrhosis. When separately evaluated, the adjusted risk for acute and chronic VTE was similar between patients with alcohol-related and viral cirrhosis but higher with NASH cirrhosis. PVT rate was highest with viral cirrhosis (4.3%) followed by NASH (2.8%) and alcohol-related cirrhosis (2.4%; P < 0.001). The adjusted risk of PVT was higher with viral (OR 1.61 95% CI 1.50-1.72) and NASH cirrhosis (OR 1.41 95% CI 1.31-1.52).

CONCLUSION

NASH cirrhosis was associated with a higher VTE risk compared with alcohol-related and viral etiologies. As NASH cirrhosis increases in prevalence as the major etiology of cirrhosis, it is important to understand the increased VTE risk associated with this condition to improve management strategies and patient outcomes.

Substitutions of saturated fat intakes with other macronutrients and foods and risk of NAFLD cirrhosis and all-cause hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Short-term trials have shown a reduction in liver fat when saturated fatty acids (SFAs) are substituted with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), or with low-glycemic carbohydrates. However, few cohort studies have been conducted to investigate the associations of replacing SFA and SFA-rich foods with different macronutrients and foods in more severe stages of liver disease; nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate associations between the substitution of SFA and SFA-rich foods with other macronutrients and foods and NAFLD cirrhosis and HCC in a middle-aged to elderly Swedish population of n = 77,059 males and females.

METHODS

Time-to-event analyses were performed to investigate associations between the food and macronutrient substitutions and NAFLD cirrhosis and HCC. Multivariable Cox regression models were constructed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical isocaloric and equal-mass substitutions were performed using the leave-one-out method. Prespecified nutrient and food substitutions of interest were SFA with carbohydrates, SFA with fiber, SFA with PUFA, butter with margarine and vegetable oils, unprocessed red meat with fish, and milk with fermented milk.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 24 y, 566 cases of NAFLD cirrhosis and 205 cases of HCC were registered. Overall, dietary substitutions showed no clear associations with either NAFLD cirrhosis or HCC. Substituting SFA with carbohydrates showed an HR of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.02) for HCC and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.11) for NAFLD cirrhosis. Substituting milk with fermented milk showed an HR of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.01) for HCC and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.03) for NAFLD cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

No clear associations were observed between diet and NAFLD cirrhosis or HCC. Although accompanied by low precision, possible lowered risks of HCC by substituting SFA with carbohydrates or milk with fermented milk might be of interest, but needs replication in other cohorts.

Liver stiffness predicts progression to liver-related events in patients with chronic liver disease - A cohort study of 14 414 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is a non-invasive diagnostic biomarker of liver fibrosis. It is uncertain if LSM can predict risk for future liver-related outcomes in large, heterogenous populations.

METHODS

This Swedish multi-centre cohort study included patients (n = 14 414) from 16 sites who underwent LSM by VCTE between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were ascertained from national registers. We investigated progression to cirrhosis with portal hypertension or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), separately. Cox regression was used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). Harrel's C-index was used to measure discrimination of VCTE.

RESULTS

Included patients had a median age of 46 (interquartile range 34-57), median LSM of 5.9 kPa (4.6-8.0), 59% were male, and the majority had hepatitis C (50.1%). During a median follow-up of 5.9 (4.3-8.0) years, 402 patients (2.7%) developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension. In patients with an LSM ≥25 kPa, 28.7% developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension within 5 years of follow-up, while only .6% of patients with an LSM <10 kPa did. This translated to a HR of 48.3 (95% confidence interval = 37.6-62.0). VCTE had a high discriminative ability, with C-indices above .80 for most liver diseases, including .82 for MASLD. Similar findings were seen for incident HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased LSM by VCTE was associated with an increased risk of progression to both cirrhosis with portal hypertension, and to HCC, and had a high discriminative ability across different aetiologies of chronic liver diseases. These results support the use of VCTE to guide follow-up and treatment decisions.

Association of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists with serious liver events among patients with type 2 diabetes: A Scandinavian cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clinical trials suggest that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may have beneficial effects on NAFLD, but the impact on hard hepatic end points is unknown. We assessed the association between the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists and the risk of serious liver events in routine clinical practice.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Cohort study using data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2007-2020, including 91,479 initiators of GLP-1 receptor agonists and 244,004 initiators of the active comparator, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, without a history of chronic liver disease other than NAFLD/NASH. The primary outcome was serious liver events: a composite of incident compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and HCC. Secondary outcomes were the individual components of the primary outcome. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs, using propensity score weighting to control for confounding. Users of GLP-1 receptor agonists had 608 serious liver events (adjusted incidence rate: 16.9 events per 10,000 person-years), compared with 1770 events among users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (19.2 events per 10,000 person-years). The adjusted HR was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.97), and the rate difference was -2.1 (-4.4 to 0.1) events per 10,000 person-years. In secondary outcome analyses, the adjusted HR was 0.85 (0.75 to 0.97) for compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and 1.05 (0.80 to 1.39) for HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a significantly reduced risk of serious liver events, driven by a reduction of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

Metabolic Syndrome Traits Increase the Risk of Major Adverse Liver Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) increases the risk for major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs), including cirrhosis and its complications. Patients with T2D frequently have other traits of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). It remains uncertain whether there is a synergistic effect of accumulating MetS traits on future MALO risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients with T2D without a history of liver disease were identified from national registers in Sweden from 1998 to 2021. MetS traits included hypertension, low HDL level, hypertriglyceridemia, obesity, and albuminuria, in addition to T2D. MALO events were identified based on administrative coding from national registers until 31 October 2022. Data were analyzed using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 230,992 patients were identified (median age 64 years; 58% male), of whom 3,215 (1.39%) developed MALOs over a median follow-up of 9.9 years. Compared with patients with one MetS trait (only T2D) at baseline, those with more than one MetS trait had a higher rate of MALOs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.33, 95% CI 1.53-3.54). The rate of MALOs increased progressively with increasing numbers of MetS traits at baseline (aHR 1.28 per added trait, 95% CI 1.23-1.33). During follow-up, patients who acquired additional MetS traits had a progressively higher rate of MALOs. The MetS trait with the largest association with incident MALOs was hypertension (aHR 2.06, 95% CI 1.57-2.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Having or acquiring additional traits of MetS increase the rate of progression to MALOs in patients with T2D. These results could be used to inform screening initiatives for liver disease.

Misclassified Alcohol-related Liver Disease is Common in Presumed Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease and Highly Increases Risk for Future Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol overconsumption is a risk factor for disease progression in patients with presumed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). How commonly this occurs and how it affects progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) is not well known.

METHODS

We did a register-based cohort study, including all patients with a diagnosis of MASLD in Sweden between 1987 and 2020. Patients were stratified on co-occurrence of diagnoses of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) prior to MASLD diagnosis. Incident MALOs were derived from national registers. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident MALO.

RESULTS

A total of 15,107 patients with MASLD were identified. The median age was 55 years, and 52% were female. Of the patients, 1843 (12%) had a prior diagnosis of ALD or AUD. During follow-up, a further 787 patients (5.2%) received a diagnosis of ALD or AUD. Patients with previous ALD or AUD diagnoses at or before baseline had considerably higher rates of MALOs compared with patients without (19.5% vs 7.8%; adjusted HR, 3.12; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-3.55). Acquiring an ALD or AUD diagnosis after MASLD diagnosis was associated with higher rates of MALOs (adjusted HR, 5.81; 95% confidence interval, 4.90-6.88).

CONCLUSIONS

ALD or AUD is commonly diagnosed prior to or after MASLD diagnosis. Such patients have considerably higher rates of progression to MALOs. Correctly separating between MASLD and ALD is vital to assess prognosis.

Long-term Risks of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Across Steatotic Liver Disease Subtypes

INTRODUCTION

The prospective study aimed to investigate the long-term associated risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) across various subtypes of steatotic liver disease (SLD).

METHODS

We enrolled 332,175 adults who participated in a health screening program between 1997 and 2013. Participants were categorized into various subtypes, including metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), MASLD with excessive alcohol consumption (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), based on ultrasonography findings, alcohol consumption patterns, and cardiometabolic risk factors. We used computerized data linkage with nationwide registries from 1997 to 2019 to ascertain the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 16 years, 4,458 cases of cirrhosis and 1,392 cases of HCC occurred in the entire cohort, resulting in an incidence rate of 86.1 and 26.8 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The ALD group exhibited the highest incidence rate for cirrhosis and HCC, followed by MetALD, MASLD, and non-SLD groups. The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios for HCC were 1.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.44), 2.91 (95% CI 2.11-4.03), and 2.59 (95% CI 1.93-3.48) for MASLD, MetALD, and ALD, respectively, when compared with non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors. The pattern of the associated risk of cirrhosis was similar to that of HCC (all P value <0.001). The associated risk of cirrhosis for ALD increased to 4.74 (95% CI 4.08-5.52) when using non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors as a reference.

DISCUSSION

This study highlights elevated risks of cirrhosis and HCC across various subtypes of SLD compared with non-SLD, emphasizing the importance of behavioral modifications for early prevention.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and risk of major adverse liver outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Phase II trials suggest glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1) agonists resolve metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis but do not affect fibrosis regression. We aimed to determine the long-term causal effect of GLP1 agonists on the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in patients with any chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

We used observational data from Swedish healthcare registers 2010-2020 to emulate a target trial of GLP1 agonists in eligible patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes. We used an inverse-probability weighted marginal structural model to compare parametric estimates of 10-year MALO risk (decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation or MALO-related death) in initiators of GLP1 agonists with non-initiators. We randomly sampled 5% of the non-initiators to increase computational efficiency.

RESULTS

GLP1 agonist initiators had a 10-year risk of MALO at 13.3% (42/1026) vs 14.6% in non-initiators (1079/15 633) in intention-to-treat analysis (risk ratio (RR)=0.91, 95% CI=0.50 to 1.32). The corresponding 10-year per-protocol risk estimates were 7.4% (22/1026) and 14.4% (1079/15 633), respectively (RR=0.51, 95% CI=0.14 to 0.88). The per-protocol risk estimates at 6 years were 5.4% (21/1026) vs 9.0% (933/15 633) (RR=0.60, 95% CI=0.29 to 0.90) and at 8 years 7.2% (22/1026) vs 11.7% (1036/15 633) (RR=0.61, 95% CI=0.21 to 1.01).

CONCLUSION

In patients with chronic liver disease and type 2 diabetes who adhered to therapy over time, GLP1 agonists may result in lower risk of MALO. This suggests that GLP1 agonists are promising agents to reduce risk of chronic liver disease progression in patients with concurrent type 2 diabetes, although this needs to be corroborated in randomised trials.

Disentangling the contributions of alcohol use disorder and alcohol-related liver disease towards dementia: A population-based cohort study

AIMS

The aim of the study was to disentangle the contributions of alcohol and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) towards dementia by independently measuring the association between alcohol use disorder (AUD) alone and ALD with dementia.

DESIGN

This was a nation-wide cohort study.

SETTING

The study was conducted in Sweden from 1987 to 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

DELIVER (DEcoding the epidemiology of LIVER disease in Sweden) cohort, containing administrative codes on patients with chronic liver disease from the National Patient Register and other registers between 1987 and 2020.

MEASUREMENTS

International Classification of Disease 9th (ICD-9) and 10th (ICD-10) version codes were used to define the presence of AUD, ALD and dementia. The associations of AUD alone and ALD with incident dementia were estimated using Cox regression models adjusting for potential confounders. Cumulative incidences were also calculated accounting for competing risks of death.

FINDINGS

A total of 128 884 individuals with AUD alone, 17 754 with ALD and 2 479 049 controls were identified. During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 13 395 (10.4%), 2187 (12.3%) and 138 925 (5.6%) dementia cases were identified in these groups, respectively. Dementia rates were increased in AUD alone [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 4.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.5-4.6] and in ALD (aHR = 8.6, 95% CI = 8.3-9.0) compared with controls. AUD alone was also associated with increased rates of vascular dementia (aHR = 2.3, 95% CI = 2.2-2.5) and Alzheimer's disease (aHR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3-1.4), while ALD was only associated with vascular dementia (aHR = 2.7, 95% CI = 2.3-3.2). The median age at dementia diagnosis was 67 years [interquartile range (IQR) = 56-76] in AUD alone and 63 years (IQR = 56-71) in ALD compared with 85 years (IQR = 79-89) in controls.

CONCLUSION

In Sweden, patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) appear to have increased rates of dementia and diagnosis at a younger age, compared with patients without AUD. Concurrent alcohol-related liver disease appears to increase the diagnosis rate and lower the median age further.

Statins Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Severe Liver Disease in Individuals With Noncirrhotic Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the potential impact of statins on the progression of noncirrhotic chronic liver diseases (CLDs) to severe liver disease.

METHODS

Using liver histopathology data in a nationwide Swedish cohort, we identified 3862 noncirrhotic individuals with CLD and statin exposure, defined as a statin prescription filled for 30 or more cumulative defined daily doses. Statin users were matched to 3862 (statin) nonusers with CLD through direct 1:1 matching followed by propensity score matching. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome of incident severe liver disease (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation/liver-related mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 45.3% of CLD patients had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 21.9% had alcohol-related liver disease, 17.7% had viral hepatitis, and 15.1% had autoimmune hepatitis. During follow-up evaluation, 234 (6.1%) statin users vs 276 (7.1%) nonusers developed severe liver disease. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of developing severe liver disease (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.74). Statistically significantly lower rates of severe liver disease were seen in alcohol-related liver disease (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.49) and in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.00), but not in viral hepatitis (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.14) or autoimmune hepatitis (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.48-1.58). Statin use had a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis. Statin use was associated with lower rates of progression to cirrhosis (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71), and liver-related mortality (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with noncirrhotic CLD, incident statin use was linked to lower rates of severe liver disease, suggesting a potential disease-modifying role.

Long-term major adverse liver outcomes in 1,260 patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD

Background & Aims

Long-term studies of the prognosis of NAFLD are scarce. Here, we investigated the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study with data from Swedish university hospitals. Patients (n = 1,260) with NAFLD without cirrhosis were diagnosed through biopsy or radiology, and had fibrosis estimated through vibration-controlled transient elastography, biopsy, or FIB-4 score between 1974 and 2020 and followed up through 2020. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (n = 12,529). MALO were ascertained from Swedish national registers. The rate of events was estimated by Cox regression.

Results

MALO occurred in 111 (8.8%, incidence rate = 5.9/1,000 person-years) patients with NAFLD and 197 (1.6%, incidence rate = 1.0/1,000 person-years) reference individuals during a median follow up of 13 years. The rate of MALO was higher in patients with NAFLD (hazard ratio = 6.6; 95% CI = 5.2-8.5). The risk of MALO was highly associated with the stage of fibrosis at diagnosis. In the biopsy subcohort (72% of total sample), there was no difference in risk between patients with and without non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The 20-year cumulative incidences of MALO were 2% for the reference population, 3% for patients with F0, and 35% for F3. Prognostic information from biopsy was comparable to FIB-4 (C-indices around 0.73 vs. 0.72 at 10 years).

Conclusions

This study provides updated information on the natural history of NAFLD, showing a high rate of progression to cirrhosis in F3 and a similar prognostic capacity of non-invasive tests to liver biopsy.

Impact and implications

Several implications for clinical care and future research may be noted based on these results. First, the risk estimates for cirrhosis development are important when communicating risk to patients and deciding on clinical monitoring and treatment. Estimates can also be used in updated health-economic evaluations, and for regulatory agencies. Second, our results again highlight the low predictive information obtained from ascertaining NASHstatus by histology and call for more objective means by which to define NASH. Such methods may include artificial intelligence-supported digital pathology. We highlight that NASH is most likely the causal factor for fibrosis progression in NAFLD, but the subjective definition makes the prognostic value of a histological NASH diagnosis of limited value. Third, the finding that prognostic information from biopsy and the very simple Fibrosis-4 score were comparable is important as it may lead to fewer biopsies and further move the field towards non-invasive means by which to define fibrosis and, importantly, use non-invasive tests as outcomes in clinical trials. However, all modalities had modest discriminatory capacity and new risk stratification systems are needed in NAFLD. Repeated measures of non-invasive scores may be a potential solution.

Secondary Prevention of Esophageal Variceal Bleeding Is Often Imperfect: A National, Population-Based Cohort Study of 3592 Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Secondary prevention of esophageal variceal bleeding is important to improve prognosis, but uptake of guidelines is unknown in a real-world setting. Here, we determined the proportion of patients receiving appropriate nonselective beta-blocker treatment and repeat upper endoscopy after a first episode of esophageal variceal bleeding within a reasonable time frame.

METHODS

Population-based registers were used to identify all patients with a first episode of esophageal variceal bleeding in Sweden from 2006 to 2020. Crosslinkage between registers was performed to receive information on the cumulative incidence of patients with a dispensation of nonselective beta-blockers and repeat upper endoscopy within 120 days from baseline. Overall mortality was investigated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

In total, 3592 patients were identified, with a median age of 63 (interquartile range, 54-71) years. The cumulative incidence of a dispensation of nonselective beta-blockers and a repeat endoscopy within 120 days was 33%. A total of 77% received either of these treatments. Overall mortality was high, with 65% of patients dying after esophageal variceal bleeding during the full follow-up period (median 1.7 years). We observed an improved overall mortality during the later years of the study period (adjusted hazard ratio for the 2016-2020 period compared with the 2006-2010 period, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.89). Patients with receipt of nonselective beta-blockers and repeat upper endoscopy had better overall survival compared with those without (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Secondary prevention of esophageal variceal bleeding has not been widely undertaken, with many patients not receiving guideline-supported interventions within a reasonable time frame. This highlights a need to raise awareness on appropriate prevention strategies to clinicians and patients.

Development and validation of a case definition to estimate the prevalence and incidence of cirrhosis in pan-Canadian primary care databases

Aims

To develop and validate case definitions to identify patients with cirrhosis and alcohol-related cirrhosis using primary care electronic medical records (EMRs) and to estimate cirrhosis prevalence and incidence in pan-Canadian primary care databases, between 2011 and 2019.

Methods

A total of 689,301 adult patients were included with ≥1 visit to a primary care provider within the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Study Network between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018. A subsample of 17,440 patients was used to validate the case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values were calculated with their 95% CIs and then determined the population-level prevalence and incidence trends with the most accurate case definition.

Results

The most accurate case definition included: ≥1 health condition, billing, or encounter diagnosis for International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 571.2, 571.5, 789.59, or 571. Sensitivity (84.6; 95% CI 83.1%-86.%), specificity (99.3; 95% CI 99.1%-99.4%), positive predictive values (94.8; 95% CI 93.9%-95.7%), and negative predictive values (97.5; 95% CI 97.3%-97.7%). Application of this definition to the overall population resulted in a crude prevalence estimate of (0.46%; 95% CI 0.45%-0.48%). Annual incidence of patients with a clinical diagnosis of cirrhosis nearly doubled between 2011 (0.05%; 95% CI 0.04%-0.06%) and 2019 to (0.09%; 95% CI 0.08%-0.09%).

Conclusions

The EMR-based case definition accurately captured patients diagnosed with cirrhosis in primary care. Future work to characterize patients with cirrhosis and their primary care experiences can support improvements in identification and management in primary care settings.

Risk of injuries before and after a diagnosis of cirrhosis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is often asymptomatic prior to decompensation. Still, cognitive impairment and sarcopenia may be present before decompensation, possibly increasing the risk of injuries. We estimated the risk of injuries during the period shortly before and after cirrhosis diagnosis.

METHODS

All patients (N=59,329) with a diagnosis of cirrhosis from 1997 to 2019 were identified from the Swedish National Patient Register. We used a self-controlled case series design to compare the incidence rates (IR) of injuries during a "diagnostic period" (within 3 months before or after the cirrhosis diagnosis date) to a self-controlled "prediagnostic period" (the same 6 calendar months 3 years before diagnosis), using conditional Poisson regression. Injuries were ascertained from the National Patient Register.

RESULTS

We identified 23,733 (40.0%) patients with compensated and 35,595 (60.0%) with decompensated cirrhosis. There were 975 injuries (IR 2.8/1000 person-months) during the prediagnostic period, and 3610 injuries (IR 11.6/1000 person-months) identified during the diagnostic period. The IR ratio was 8.1 (95% CI 7.5-8.7) comparing the diagnostic period with the prediagnostic period. For patients with compensated cirrhosis, the risk increment of injuries was highest just before the diagnosis of cirrhosis, whereas the risk increase was highest shortly after the diagnosis for those with decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of injuries increases shortly before and after the diagnosis of cirrhosis. These findings indicate that cirrhosis is frequently diagnosed in conjunction with an injury, and highlight the need for injury prevention after cirrhosis diagnosis, especially in patients with decompensation.

Four-fold increased mortality rate in patients with Wilson's disease: A population-based cohort study of 151 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Few studies have investigated mortality rates in patients with Wilson's disease and compared these to the general population. Here, we examined several clinical outcomes (including cardiovascular, psychiatric, neurologic conditions) in a population-based study of patients with Wilson's disease.

METHOD

We used nationwide registers to identify all patients with a first diagnosis of Wilson's disease between 2002 and 2020 in Sweden. Each patient was matched by age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population. Validated registers were used to investigate outcomes up to 19 years after baseline in patients and reference individuals.

RESULTS

We identified 151 patients with Wilson's disease matched with 1441 reference individuals. Median age at baseline was 26 years (IQR 17-42) and 50% were males. During a median follow-up of 6.6 years (IQR 2.9-12.9), 10 (6.6%) patients with Wilson's disease died compared with 31 (2.2%) reference individuals. This translated to a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.8 (95%CI = 1.8-8.1). Mortality was higher among Wilson's disease patients with baseline neuropsychiatric diagnoses (HR 7.9, 95%CI = 2.9-21.8). Cumulative mortality over 10 years was 9.3% (95%CI = 5.0-16.8) in Wilson's disease, compared to 2.4% (95%CI = 1.6-3.6) in reference individuals. We observed significantly elevated risks in the Wilson's disease group for incident cardiovascular disease, and incident psychiatric and neurological conditions when considering liver transplantation or death from other causes as competing events.

CONCLUSION

In this large population-based cohort study, patients with Wilson's disease had an almost four-fold increased mortality rate compared with matched individuals from the general population.

Time trends in mortality and life expectancy in 22,658 patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The management of alcohol-associated cirrhosis has improved in the last decades, but whether the prognosis has changed over time is uncertain. We aimed to assess time trends in mortality and life expectancy in patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used the Swedish national population and health registers to identify all patients with a first episode of in-hospital alcohol-associated cirrhosis from 1969 to 2019 (n = 22,658). Time trends in 1-year mortality were assessed with multivariable Cox regression. A flexible parametric model was fitted to evaluate loss in life expectancy.

RESULTS

Crude mortality was similar in the 2010s and 1980s (unadjusted HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93-1.08, ptrend = 0.767). However, when adjusting for baseline characteristics, mortality was lower in the 2010s than in the 1980s (adjusted HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.68-0.80), including both liver- and nonliver-related mortalities. These results were consistent in men but not in women, where only nonliver mortality had decreased. The average loss in life expectancy for patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis compared with the general population was similar throughout the study period (in the 2010s: 14.3 y shorter (95% CI = 13.7-14.9) in men and 15.8 years shorter (95% CI = 14.9-16.7) in women).

CONCLUSION

Mortality in patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis has improved somewhat when accounting for baseline characteristics, but the loss in life expectancy remains substantial. This underscores the need for new therapeutic options and health policy interventions to further improve the dismal prognosis and life expectancy of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic liver diseases in Sweden between 2005 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Updated data on the incidence, prevalence, and regional differences of chronic liver disease are missing from many countries. In this study, we aimed to describe time trends, incidence, prevalence, and mortality of a wide range of chronic liver diseases in Sweden.

METHODS

In this register-based, nationwide observational study, patients with a register-based diagnosis of chronic liver disease, during 2005-2019, were retrieved from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, and prevalence per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated and stratified on age, sex, and geographical region.

RESULTS

The incidence of alcohol-related cirrhosis increased by 47% (2.6% annually), reaching an incidence rate of 13.1/100,000 inhabitants. The incidence rate of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and unspecified liver cirrhosis increased by 217% and 87% (8.0 and 4.3% annually), respectively, reaching an incidence rate of 15.2 and 18.7/100,000 inhabitants, and a prevalence of 24.7 and 44.8/100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, incidence rates of chronic hepatitis C declined steeply, but liver malignancies have become more common. The most common causes of liver-related mortality were alcohol-related liver disease and unspecified liver disease.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rates of diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, alcohol-related cirrhosis, unspecified liver cirrhosis, and liver malignancies have increased during the last 15 years. Worryingly, mortality in several liver diseases increased, likely reflecting increasing incidences of cirrhosis in spite of a decreasing rate of hepatitis C. Significant disparities exist across sex and geographical regions, which need to be considered when allocating healthcare resources.

Administrative coding for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is accurate in Swedish patients

Background and Aims: Epidemiological studies of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently use the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes to identify patients. The validity of such ICD codes in a Swedish setting is unknown. Here, we aimed to validate the administrative code for NAFLD in Sweden.Methods: In total, 150 patients with an ICD-10 code for NAFLD (K76.0) from the Karolinska University Hospital between 1 January 2015 and 3 November 2021 were randomly selected. Patients were classified as true or false positives for NAFLD by medical chart review and the positive predictive value (PPV) for the ICD-10 code corresponding to NAFLD was calculated.Results: The PPV of the ICD-10 code for NAFLD was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76-0.89). After exclusion of patients with diagnostic coding for other liver diseases or alcohol abuse disorder (n = 14), the PPV was improved to 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.96). The PPV was higher in patients with coding for NAFLD in combination with obesity (0.95, 95%CI = 0.87-1.00) or type 2 diabetes (0.96, 95%CI = 0.89-1.00). However, in false-positive cases, a high alcohol consumption was common and such patients had somewhat higher Fibrosis-4 scores than true-positive patients (1.9 vs 1.3, p = 0.16)Conclusions: The ICD-10 code for NAFLD had a high PPV, that was further improved after exclusion of patients with coding for other liver diseases than NAFLD. This approach should be preferred when performing register-based studies to identify patients with NAFLD in Sweden. Still, residual alcohol-related liver disease might risk confound some findings seen in epidemiological studies which needs to be considered.

Global epidemiology of cirrhosis - aetiology, trends and predictions

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care.

Three-fold Increased Risk of Death in Budd-Chiari Syndrome Compared to Matched Controls: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) have an elevated risk of overall and liver-specific mortality, but this has not been quantified on a population level nor compared against a matched general population cohort.

METHODS

We identified all patients in Sweden with a recorded diagnosis of BCS in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1987 and 2016. Patients with BCS were matched for age, sex, and municipality at baseline with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population. Data on cause-specific mortality were obtained from the Causes of Death Register. A Cox regression model was performed to investigate rates of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 478 patients with BCS were matched with 4603 reference individuals. Of the patients with BCS, 43% were men, the median age was 58 years, 39% had a recorded diagnosis of a precipitating risk factor, and 13% had underlying liver disease. During a follow-up of up to 29 years, 243 (51%) of the patients with BCS died compared with 1346 (29%) of the reference individuals. Overall mortality was 70 per 1000 person-years in patients with BCS compared with 28 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals, translating into an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-3.6). Although liver-related mortality was particularly high (aHR, 47.6; 95% CI, 16.5-137.4), liver disease accounted for only 10% of deaths in BCS. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (aHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with BCS in Sweden had a 3-fold higher risk of death compared with general population reference individuals. Although mortality from liver diseases was high in relative terms, most patients died from cardiovascular causes.

Development and Validation of a Novel Tool to Predict Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Scores in Cirrhosis, Using Administrative Datasets

Background

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts disease severity and mortality in cirrhosis. To improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative databases lacking laboratory data, we aimed to develop and externally validate claims-based MELD prediction models, using claims data linked to electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

We included adults with established cirrhosis in two Medicare-linked EHR networks (training and internal validation; 2007-2017), and a Medicaid-linked EHR network (external validation; 2000-2014). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with 5-fold cross-validation, we selected among 146 investigator-specified variables to develop models for predicting continuous MELD and relevant MELD categories (MELD<10, MELD≥15 and MELD≥20), with observed MELD calculated from laboratory data. Regression coefficients for each model were applied to the validation sets to predict patient-level MELD and assess model performance.

Results

We identified 4501 patients in the Medicare training set (mean age 75.1 years, 18.5% female, mean MELD=13.0), and 2435 patients in the Medicare validation set (mean age: 74.3 years, 31.7% female, mean MELD=12.3). Our final model for predicting continuous MELD included 112 variables, explaining 58% of observed MELD variability; in the Medicare validation set, the area-under-the-receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for MELD<10 and MELD≥15 were 0.84 and 0.90, respectively; the AUC for the model predicting MELD≥20 (using 27 variables) was 0.93. Overall, these models correctly classified 77% of patients with MELD<10 (95% CI=0.75-0.78), 85% of patients with MELD≥15 (95% CI=0.84-0.87), and 87% of patients with MELD≥20 (95% CI=0.86-0.88). Results were consistent in the external validation set (n=2240).

Conclusion

Our MELD prediction tools can be used to improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative datasets lacking laboratory data.

The Liverpool alcohol-related liver disease algorithm identifies twice as many emergency admissions compared to standard methods when applied to Hospital Episode Statistics for England

BACKGROUND

Emergency admissions in England for alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) have increased steadily for decades. Statistics based on administrative data typically focus on the ArLD-specific code as the primary diagnosis and are therefore at risk of excluding ArLD admissions defined by other coding combinations.

AIM

To deploy the Liverpool ArLD Algorithm (LAA), which accounts for alternative coding patterns (e.g., ArLD secondary diagnosis with alcohol/liver-related primary diagnosis), to national and local datasets in the context of studying trends in ArLD admissions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We applied the standard approach and LAA to Hospital Episode Statistics for England (2013-21). The algorithm was also deployed at 28 hospitals to discharge coding for emergency admissions during a common 7-day period in 2019 and 2020, in which eligible patient records were reviewed manually to verify the diagnosis and extract data.

RESULTS

Nationally, LAA identified approximately 100% more monthly emergency admissions from 2013 to 2021 than the standard method. The annual number of ArLD-specific admissions increased by 30.4%. Of 39,667 admissions in 2020/21, only 19,949 were identified with standard approach, an estimated admission cost of £70 million in under-recorded cases. Within 28 local hospital datasets, 233 admissions were identified using the standard approach and a further 250 locally verified cases using the LAA (107% uplift). There was an 18% absolute increase in ArLD admissions in the seven-day evaluation period in 2020 versus 2019. There were no differences in disease severity or mortality, or in the proportion of admissions with decompensation of cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis.

CONCLUSIONS

The LAA can be applied successfully to local and national datasets. It consistently identifies approximately 100% more cases than the standard coding approach. The algorithm has revealed the true extent of ArLD admissions. The pandemic has compounded a long-term rise in ArLD admissions and mortality.

Improved prediction of 10-year risk of severe liver disease in the general population using commonly available biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Estimating the risk for cirrhosis in the general population is complex. Existing prediction tools are in general unsatisfactory.

AIMS

To explore if using commonly available biomarkers can improve the commonly used FIB-4 score in the identification of subgroups at risk of cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used laboratory and clinical data on 126,925 individuals aged 35-79 years in Stockholm, Sweden, undergoing health examinations from 1985 to 1996. We used Swedish nationwide registries to ascertain 10-year cumulative incidence of severe liver disease, a composite of diagnoses corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications. We considered combinations of biomarkers associated with severe liver disease to identify subgroups with different risk profiles.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 9.3 years, we ascertained 630 incident cases of severe liver disease (0.5%). Age, the FIB-4 score, diabetes or impaired glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were the most relevant characteristics for classifying risk profiles. Using these factors, we identified 24 groups with a cumulative incidence of severe liver disease at 10 years ranging from 0.2% (age 35-65, low FIB-4, no diabetes or impaired glucose and normal gGT) to 32.1% (age 35-65, high FIB-4, diabetes or impaired glucose and high gGT).

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of subjects at increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population using the FIB-4 score can be substantially improved by adding age and specific biomarkers commonly available in the primary care setting. These parameters should be considered for inclusion in the development of future risk prediction models.

Unrecognized liver cirrhosis is common and associated with worse survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: A nationwide cohort study of 3473 patients

BACKGROUND

Data on unrecognized liver cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are derived mainly from cohorts with a risk of selection bias.

OBJECTIVES

In a population-based cohort study we aimed to determine the proportion, characteristics, and prognosis of HCC in patients with unrecognized cirrhosis.

METHODS

Using the Swedish quality register for liver cancer and other nationwide registers, we identified all adults with HCC in Sweden between 2012 and 2018 (n = 3,473).

RESULTS

The final study cohort comprised 2670 patients with established cirrhosis, of which 1033 (39%) had unrecognized cirrhosis at HCC diagnosis. These patients were more often male, older, and had larger tumors, multinodular cancer, portal vein thrombosis, and extrahepatic metastasis compared to patients with known cirrhosis with HCC and under surveillance (34%). Compared to surveilled patients, those with unrecognized cirrhosis had worse median survival (0.89 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78-1.01 vs. 3.79 years, 95%CI = 3.19-4.39), and an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.36 (95%CI = 2.09-2.66). Patients with cirrhosis but not under surveillance (27%) and patients with unrecognized cirrhosis had similar characteristics, such as equal proportions diagnosed at late stage (79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis is often not recognized in patients with HCC. Unrecognized cirrhosis is associated with more advanced HCC at diagnosis and a worse prognosis. More efforts are needed to diagnose cirrhosis at an earlier stage.

Pregnancy Outcomes in Women With Autoimmune Hepatitis - A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study With Histopathology

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic inflammatory liver condition that predominantly affects women. However, pregnancy risks remain unclear.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based cohort study (ESPRESSO) in Sweden from 1992 to 2016 including 309 singleton births in women with AIH and 1532 matched births in women from the general population was performed. AIH was diagnosed as a combination of administrative coding from medical diagnosis of AIH and liver biopsy data from Sweden's 28 pathology departments. Using conditional logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) for adverse pregnancy outcomes were determined.

RESULTS

Among 306 live births to women with AIH, 51 (16.7%) were preterm, compared with 70 of 1524 (4.6%) reference births. This corresponded to an OR of 5.10 for preterm birth (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.29-7.92), with similar odds using sibling comparators. Women with AIH with and without cirrhosis had similar odds for preterm birth. The AIH association was particularly strong with medically indicated preterm birth (OR, 13.01; 95% CI, 5.50-30.79). AIH was associated with low birth weight (OR, 5.31; 95% CI, 2.82-9.99) and low 5-minute Apgar score (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.14-10.49) offspring, but we found no association with congenital malformations (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.68-1.91), small for gestational age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.38-2.85), stillbirth (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.02-18.88), or neonatal death (OR, 7.42; 95% CI, 0.65-84.25). Maternal AIH was linked to an increased odds of cesarean section (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04-2.00) and preeclampsia (OR, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.01-6.64), but not to gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal AIH was associated with a 5-fold higher odds of preterm birth, and cirrhosis at diagnosis did not add to the impact of AIH on preterm birth. Future studies are needed to understand how to reduce this risk.

Effect of common genetic variants on the risk of cirrhosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease during 20 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several genotypes associate with a worse histopathological profile in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Whether genotypes impact long-term outcomes is unclear. We investigated the importance of PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7 and GCKR genotype for the development of severe outcomes in NAFLD.

METHOD

DNA samples were collected from 546 patients with NAFLD. Advanced fibrosis was diagnosed by liver biopsy or elastography. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was histologically defined. Additionally, 5396 controls matched for age, sex and municipality were identified from population-based registers. Events of severe liver disease and all-cause mortality were collected from national registries. Hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index and type 2 diabetes were estimated with Cox regression.

RESULTS

In NAFLD, the G/G genotype of PNPLA3 was associated with a higher prevalence of NASH at baseline (odds ratio [OR] 3.67, 95% CI = 1.66-8.08), but not with advanced fibrosis (OR 1.81, 95% CI = 0.79-4.14). After up to 40 years of follow-up, the PNPLA3 G/G genotype was associated with a higher rate of severe liver disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.27, 95% CI = 1.15-4.47) compared with the C/C variant. NAFLD patients developed cirrhosis at a higher rate than controls (aHR 9.00, 95% CI = 6.85-11.83). The PNPLA3 G/G genotype accentuated this rate (aHR 23.32, 95% = CI 9.14-59.47). Overall mortality was not affected by any genetic variant.

CONCLUSION

The PNPLA3 G/G genotype is associated with an increased rate of cirrhosis in NAFLD. Our results suggest that assessment of the PNPLA3 genotype is of clinical relevance in patients with NAFLD to individualize monitoring and therapeutic strategies.

Risk of cardiovascular disease and loss in life expectancy in NAFLD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Conflicting evidence exists on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with NAFLD, and data are lacking on whether NAFLD increases mortality after a CVD event. Moreover, life expectancy in NAFLD has not been studied. We therefore examined CVD risk and life expectancy in patients with NAFLD compared with the general population.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In this nationwide population-based cohort, all patients with NAFLD diagnosis and without baseline CVD (ascertaining from the Swedish National Patient Register from 1987 to 2016, n = 10,023) were matched 10:1 on age, sex, and municipality to individuals from the general population (controls, n = 96,313). CVD diagnosis and mortality were derived from national registers. Multistate models and flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for CVD risk and loss in life expectancy due to NAFLD. We identified 1037 (10.3%) CVD events in patients with NAFLD and 4041 (4.2%) in controls. CVD risk was 2.6-fold higher in NAFLD compared with controls (aHR = 2.61, 95% CI = 2.36-2.88) and was strongest for nonfatal CVD (aHR = 3.71, 95% CI = 3.29-4.17). After a nonfatal CVD event, the risk for all-cause mortality was similar between patients with NAFLD and controls (aHR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.64-1.25). Life expectancy in patients with NAFLD was, on average, 2.8 years lower than controls, with the highest loss of life-years when NAFLD was diagnosed in middle age (40-60 years).

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD was associated with a higher risk of nonfatal CVD but did not affect post-CVD mortality risk. Patients diagnosed with NAFLD have a lower life expectancy than the general population.

Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Biopsy-proven Alcohol-related Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) frequently have risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but their long-term risk of CVD is not well-known, especially considering the competing risk of death from liver-related causes. It is further unknown if any excess risk varies across histological subgroups.

METHODS

We investigated the risk of CVD outcomes in 3488 persons with ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969 and 2016, compared with a matched reference population (n = 15,461). Administrative coding from national diagnostic and histopathology registers were used to define exposures and outcomes. Competing risk regression, taking non-CVD death into account and adjusting for potential confounders, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios for incident CVD up until Dec 31, 2019.

RESULTS

At baseline, patients with ALD had a median age of 58 years, 64% were men, and 2039 (58%) had cirrhosis on histology. The incidence rate of CVD was 35.6 per 1000 person-years in ALD compared with 19.0 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals. ALD was associated with a 2-fold increased short-term risk for CVD compared with matched reference individuals (subdistribution hazard ratio during the first year after diagnosis, 2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.95), but this risk decreased with time. Incidence rates of CVD were comparable across histological subgroups (ranging from 27.4 CVD cases per 1000 person-years in those with normal histology to 39.2 cases per 1000 person-years in those with cirrhosis).

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with biopsy-proven ALD have increased rates of CVD across histological subgroups compared with matched reference individuals, particularly just after ALD diagnosis. Active surveillance of modifiable CVD risk factors should be considered by clinicians treating patients with ALD.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in Stockholm, Sweden 2003-2018: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Available epidemiological data on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) originate mainly from centre-based or disease-specific cohorts and may not reflect the general population. This population-based register study presents the incidence, aetiologies, treatments, survival, and differences related to sex or socioeconomic status in patients with HCC from Stockholm, which constitutes more than a fifth of the Swedish population.

METHODS

ICD-10 codes identified incident HCC cases in the regional administrative health care database 2003-2018. Administrative coding on diseases, socioeconomic status, and dispensed drugs were used to identify risk factors and therapies. Two validation analyses 2014-2015 studied the correctness of register-based aetiologies and reasons for providing only best supportive care (BSC).

RESULTS

We identified 2,245 incident cases of HCC. The incidence increased from 6 to 7.5 per 100,000 inhabitants over the time-period. The most common aetiologies were hepatitis C (26%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (22%), and alcohol-related liver disease (19%). Five-year survival probability was 79% after liver transplantation, 60% after resection, and 35% after ablation but <10% for chemoembolization, Sorafenib, and BSC. The proportion receiving any treatment increased but half of the patients only received BSC. At least 14% of potentially treatable HCC (surveillance indicated but not performed) received only BSC 2014-2015. We found no significant differences in treatments or outcomes between socioeconomic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HCC is rising in Stockholm, Sweden but is still low by global comparison. Near half of all patients still receive only BSC and study data suggest that surveillance practices are incomplete.

Accuracy of International Classification of Diseases-10 Codes for Cirrhosis and Portal Hypertensive Complications

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes may correspond to cirrhosis diagnosis. However, these codes have not been as well studied as ICD-9 codes. We aimed to evaluate the positive predictive value (PPV) and specificity of ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center retrospective study of patients in Michigan Medicine (Ann Arbor, MI, USA). We evaluated patients with at least one of 28 ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis and randomly selected controls for the presence of cirrhosis and/or portal hypertensive complications.

RESULTS

Among 1317 patients with at least one ICD-10 code consistent with cirrhosis and/or portal hypertension, 796 had confirmed cirrhosis. After excluding ICD-10 codes found in < 10 patients, we evaluated the PPV of the 19 remaining codes. Of these, 15 had a high PPV for cirrhosis (> 80%), including codes for cirrhosis itself, gastroesophageal varices, hepatic encephalopathy, and other portal hypertensive complications. Specificity of ICD codes for cirrhosis for these 15 codes was high (> 94% for all). PPV and specificity were high across liver disease etiologies. Among patients without portal hypertension, PPVs of ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis were lower but still > 80% for the most common codes. PPVs of most codes for portal hypertensive complications were > 70%. Defining cirrhosis based on the presence of any of the 15 codes resulted in a PPV of 86% and by two different codes, a PPV 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis can accurately identify patients with cirrhosis with or without portal hypertensive complications.

Cohort profile: decoding the epidemiology of liver disease in Sweden (DELIVER)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Swedish nationwide registries can be used to identify patients with a wide range of diagnoses. This information can be used to construct cohorts useful to determine prognosis and identify risk factors for disease progression. Here, we describe a new register-based cohort of patients with a diverse set of chronic liver disease diagnoses in Sweden.

METHODS

The DELIVER (DEcoding the epidemiology of LIVER disease in sweden) was constructed using extensive data linkages between different Swedish registers, diagnosed between 1964 and 2016. Patients in DELIVER are matched 1:10 to reference individuals from the general population on age, sex, municipality and calendar year of first liver disease diagnosis. Longitudinal cross-linked data from several registers allow for identification of outcomes occurring before or after liver disease diagnosis. Further, since July 2005 all dispensed drugs can be identified.

RESULTS

In total, 307 768 unique individuals with a diagnosis of a chronic liver disease since 1964 were identified, and these were matched with 3 067 714 reference individuals from the general population. As examples, DELIVER contains data on 90 948 patients with a diagnosis of viral hepatitis; 50 593 patients with alcohol-related liver disease and 13 242 patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The DELIVER cohort can be used to examine several important research questions. Long-term outcomes of chronic liver diseases, risk factors for disease progression, impact of dispensed drugs, disease panorama and time trends are examples. Here we describe the construction and data availability of DELIVER.

Risk of Fractures and Subsequent Mortality in Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-related cirrhosis is linked to increased risk of fractures, but this has seldom been quantified nationally or compared against control subjects without cirrhosis. Here, we determined the rate and risk of fractures and postfracture mortality in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis compared with individuals from the general population.

METHODS

In this nationwide population-based cohort study, data were retrieved from the Swedish National Patient Registry on 25,090 patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis from 1969-2016. Patients were matched for sex, age, and municipality with 239,458 control subjects from the Swedish Total Population Registry. Cox regression models were fitted to investigate the rates of fractures and postfracture mortality. The cumulative incidence of fractures was calculated while accounting for competing risks (death or liver transplantation).

RESULTS

A total of 48,635 fractures occurred during 3,468,860 person-years of follow-up. Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis had a higher fracture rate per 1000 person-years (38.7) than control subjects (13.3; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-3.9). The cumulative incidence of fractures was elevated for patients the first 19 years of follow-up, with a 5-year risk of 9.6% compared with 4.5% for control subjects. Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis had a higher postfracture mortality rate compared with control subjects who also experienced a fracture, at both 30 days (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-1.8) and 1 year (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-2.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-related cirrhosis is associated with an almost 4-fold increased fracture rate, a higher risk of fractures the first 2 decades after initial diagnosis, and higher postfracture mortality. Preventive interventions to reduce modifiable fracture risk factors in this population are justified.

International Classification of Diseases Codes are Useful in Identifying Cirrhosis in Administrative Databases

BACKGROUND

Health administrative databases are essential to define patient populations, make socioeconomic predictions, and facilitate medical research and healthcare planning. The accuracy of this data is dependent on valid codes/coding algorithms.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to systematically identify and summarize the validity of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for identifying patients with cirrhosis in administrative data.

METHODS

Electronic databases, MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), the Web of Science, and CINAHL (via EBSCOhost), were searched for validation studies which compared ICD codes related to cirrhosis to a clinical reference standard, and reported statistical measures of performance.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies were included in the review. There was a large variation in the algorithms used to validate ICD codes to diagnose cirrhosis. Despite the variation, the positive predictive value (PPV) was greater than 84% and the specificity was greater than 75% in the majority of the studies. The negative predictive value (NPV) was lower, but still was associated with values greater than 70% in the majority of studies. Sensitivity data varied significantly with values ranging from 0.27 to 99%.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluated ICD codes for cirrhosis, including codes for chronic liver disease, cirrhosis-specific codes, and cirrhosis-related complications, have demonstrated variable sensitivity and reasonable specificity for the identification of cirrhosis. Additional research is needed to maximize the identification of persons with cirrhosis to avoid underestimating the burden of disease.

Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Hepatic Decompensation Events in Patients With Cirrhosis and Diabetes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The study sought to compare the effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, sulfonylureas, or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in reducing decompensation events, among patients with cirrhosis and type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This population-based, retrospective cohort study included patients with type 2 diabetes and cirrhosis, in a commercial healthcare database (IBM MarketScan). We constructed 3 pairwise, 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts of adults initiating GLP-1RAs or a comparator medication (ie, DPP-4 inhibitors [2006-2020], sulfonylurea [2005-2020], or SGLT-2 inhibitors [2013-2020]). Patients were followed in an as-treated approach for decompensation events (ie, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, or esophageal variceal hemorrhage). Within each PS-matched cohort, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for >90 baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Over 132 days of median follow-up (interquartile range, 73-290 days), PS-matched rates of any decompensation were significantly lower among GLP-1RA initiators, versus DPP-4 inhibitor initiators (105.2 vs 144.0 per 1000 person-years [PY]; HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53-0.88; n = 1431 pairs), and versus sulfonylureas (97.3 vs 144.0 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84; n = 1246 pairs). Similar, inverse associations were found for individual decompensation events, including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45-0.97; and HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94, respectively); esophageal variceal hemorrhage (HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.41-0.92; and HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.92, respectively); and hepatic encephalopathy (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.55-1.06; and HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.39-0.92, respectively). Results persisted in subgroups of patients with and without previously decompensated cirrhosis. In contrast, decompensation rates were similar when GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors were directly compared (103.5 vs 112.8 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.62-1.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Among cirrhotic patients with type 2 diabetes, we find high rates of decompensation, consistent with previous reports; these rates were substantially lower among GLP-1RA initiators compared with DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas.

Risk of primary liver cancer in acute hepatic porphyria patients: A matched cohort study of 1244 individuals

BACKGROUND

The acute hepatic porphyrias (AHP) are associated with a risk of primary liver cancer (PLC), but risk estimates are unclear, and what AHP characteristics that predict PLC risk are unknown. In this register-based, matched cohort study, we assessed the PLC risk in relation to biochemical and clinical porphyria severity, genotype, age, and sex.

METHODS

All patients in the Swedish porphyria register with acute intermittent porphyria (AIP), variegate porphyria (VP), or hereditary coproporphyria (HCP) during 1987-2015 were included. This AHP cohort was compared with age-, sex-, and county-matched reference individuals from the general population. National register-based hospital admissions for AHP were used to indicate the clinical severity. For AIP, the most common AHP type, patients were stratified by genotype and urinary porphobilinogen (U-PBG). Incident PLC data were collected from national health registers.

RESULTS

We identified 1244 individuals with AHP (1063 [85%] AIP). During a median follow-up of 19.5 years, we identified 108 incident PLC cases, including 83 AHP patients (6.7%) and 25 of 12,333 reference individuals (0.2%). The adjusted hazard ratio for AHP-PLC was 38.0 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-59.3). Previously elevated U-PBG and hospitalizations for porphyria, but not AIP genotype or sex, were associated with increased PLC risk. Patients aged >50 years with previously elevated U-PBG (n = 157) had an annual PLC incidence of 1.8%.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed a high PLC risk and identified a strong association with clinical and biochemical AIP activity. Regular PLC surveillance is motivated in patients older than 50 years with a history of active AIP.

Alcohol-related liver disease mortality and missed opportunities in secondary care: A United Kingdom retrospective observational study

Introduction

Alcohol‐related liver disease (ARLD) is a preventable cause of mortality. Historical epidemiological studies on ARLD often lack a detailed linked assessment of health‐related contacts prior to death which limits understanding of opportunities for intervention. We aimed to analyse retrospective population‐based data of all adult residents of Nottinghamshire dying from ARLD to determine the factors associated with delayed diagnosis of ARLD and the potential missed opportunities for interventions.

Methods

We linked the Office for National Statistics and Hospital Episode Statistics databases to identify adult (≥18 years) residents of Nottinghamshire, who died of ARLD over the 5‐year period (1 January 2012 to 31 December 2017). Death was used as the primary outcome, and logistic regression analysis was conducted to test the association between key variables and mortality due to ARLD.

Results

Over 5 years, 799 ARLD deaths were identified. More than half had no diagnosis or a diagnosis of ARLD less than 6 months before death. Emergency presentation at first ARLD diagnosis and White ethnicity were significantly associated with a delay in diagnosis. Overall, the cohort had a median of five hospital admissions, four accident and emergency attendances and 16 outpatient appointments in the 5 years before death. Treatment was provided by a range of specialities, with general medicine the most common. Alcohol was associated with most admissions.

Discussion and Conclusions

This study identified deficiencies in ARLD secondary care and provides us with a powerful methodology that can be used to evaluate and improve how alcohol issues are managed and where action can be best targeted.

Risk of hepatic and extrahepatic cancer in NAFLD: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Individuals with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may be at greater risk of cancer. This study aimed to investigate the risk of hepatic and extrahepatic cancer compared to the general population in a population-based cohort of patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

We used the Swedish National Patient Registry from 1987 to 2016 to identify patients with a NAFLD diagnosis and no prior cancer. All patients with NAFLD were compared to up to 10 controls matched for age, sex and living location. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of any cancer as ascertained from national registries. As secondary outcomes, we analysed the risk of pre-specified cancer subtypes. Cox regression models, adjusted for baseline diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were applied.

RESULTS

We identified 8415 patients with NAFLD. Over a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR 2.5-11.2 years), an increased risk for any cancer was found in patients with NAFLD compared to controls (9.7 vs. 8.6 cases per 1000 person-years): hazard ratio (HR) = 1.22 (95% confidence interval, CI = 1.12-1.33). The risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was particularly high (adjusted HR, aHR = 12.18, 95% CI = 7.15-20.79). The risk for some other cancer subtypes increased (colorectal [aHR 1.38], kidney [aHR 2.12], bladder [aHR 2.51] and uterine [aHR 1.78]), but was low in absolute terms.

CONCLUSION

In this population-based cohort, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of developing cancer (especially HCC). The absolute risk for other forms of cancer was generally comparable to the control population.

Risk of Cancer in Biopsy-Proven Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study of 3410 Persons

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Persons with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at an increased risk of death and liver-related endpoints, but the association with incident cancer is not well understood, and whether it differs across histopathological subgroups is undefined.

METHODS

We investigated the risk of cancer in 3,410 persons with a diagnosis of ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969-2016, compared to a matched reference population. Administrative coding from national registers and liver biopsy data were used to define exposure and outcome status. Competing risk regression, adjusted for available confounders and using non-cancer mortality as the competing risk, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) for incident cancer.

RESULTS

At baseline, persons with ALD had a median age of 58.2 years, 67% were men, and 2,042 (60%) had cirrhosis. ALD was not associated with cancer in general (sHR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.92-1.11), although the risk was increased in persons surviving ≥1 year (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.08-1.32). The risk of liver cancer was elevated sHR = 12.80, 95%CI = 9.38-17.45). HCC incidence among ALD persons with cirrhosis was 8.6 cases/1,000 person-years, corresponding to a cumulative incidence after 10 years of 5.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with biopsy-proven ALD that survive the initial time after diagnosis are at an elevated risk for cancer, in particular HCC compared with the general population. Although the risk for HCC was elevated, data do not suggest that routine surveillance for HCC in ALD cirrhosis is cost-effective.

Systematic review: development of a consensus code set to identify cirrhosis in electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Electronic health records (EHRs) collate longitudinal data that can be used to facilitate large-scale research in patients with cirrhosis. However, there is no consensus code set to define the presence of cirrhosis in EHR. This systematic review aims to evaluate the validity of diagnostic coding in cirrhosis and to synthesise a comprehensive set of ICD-10 codes for future EHR research.

METHOD

MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies that used EHR to identify cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications. Validated code sets were summarised, and the performance characteristics were extracted. Citation analysis was done to inform development of a consensus code set. This was then validated in a cohort of patients.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred twenty-six records were screened, and 18 studies were identified. The positive predictive value (PPV) was the most frequently reported statistical estimate and was ≥80% in 17/18 studies. Citation analyses showed continued variation in those used in contemporary research practice. Nine codes were identified as those most frequently used in the literature and these formed the consensus code set. This was validated in diverse patient populations from Europe and North America and showed high PPV (83%-89%) and greater sensitivity for the identification of cirrhosis than the most often used code set in the recent literature.

CONCLUSION

There is variation in code sets used to identify cirrhosis in contemporary research practice. A consensus set has been developed and validated, showing improved performance, and is proposed to align EHR study designs in cirrhosis to facilitate international collaboration and comparisons.

Risk of infections and their role on subsequent mortality in biopsy-proven alcohol-related liver disease

Background and Aims

The risk for infection in alcohol‐related liver disease (ALD) has rarely been investigated at a population level, nor if the underlying liver histopathology is associated with infection risk. We examined the rate of hospital‐based infections in a nationwide cohort of biopsy‐proven ALD, and the subsequent risk of death.

Methods

Population‐based cohort study in Sweden comparing 4028 individuals with an international classification of disease (ICD) code for ALD and a liver biopsy from 1969 to 2017 with 19,296 matched general population individuals. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident infections in secondary or tertiary care and subsequent mortality until 2019. We used Cox regression, adjusted for sex, age, education, country of birth, diabetes, and number of hospitalizations in the year preceding liver biopsy date, to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) in ALD and histopathological subgroups compared to reference individuals.

Results

Median age at ALD diagnosis was 59 years, 65% were men and 59% had cirrhosis at baseline. Infections were more common in patients with ALD (84 cases/1000 person‐years [PY]) compared to reference individuals (29/1000 PYs; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.06, 95% CI = 2.85–3.29). This excess risk corresponded to one additional infection per 18 ALD patients each year.

The rate of infections was particularly high in individuals with cirrhosis (aHR = 3.46) and in those with decompensation (aHR = 5.20). Restricting our data to those with an infection, ALD (aHR = 3.63, 95%CI = 3.36–3.93), and especially ALD cirrhosis (aHR = 4.31, 95%CI = 3.89–4.78) were linked to subsequent death.

Conclusions

Individuals with biopsy‐proven ALD have a three‐fold increased rate of infections compared with the general population. The risk of death after an infection is also considerably higher in individuals with ALD.

Risk of severe COVID-19 and mortality in patients with established chronic liver disease: a nationwide matched cohort study

Background and aims

Some, but not all, prior studies have suggested that patients with chronic liver disease are at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing more severe disease. However, nationwide data are lacking from well-phenotyped cohorts with liver histology and comparisons to matched general population controls.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide cohort study of all Swedish adults with chronic liver disease (CLD) confirmed by liver biopsy between 1966 and 2017 (n = 42,320), who were alive on February 1, 2020. CLD cases were matched to ≤ 5 population comparators by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 182,147). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for COVID-19 hospitalization and severe COVID-19 (intensive care admission or death due to COVID-19).

Results

Between February 1 and July 31, 2020, 161 (0.38%) CLD patients and 435 (0.24%) general population controls were hospitalized with COVID-19 (aHR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.11–1.66), while 65 (0.15%) CLD patients and 191 (0.10%) controls developed severe COVID-19 (aHR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.79–1.48). Results were similar in patients with CLD due to alcohol use, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, viral hepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, and other etiologies. Among patients with cirrhosis (n = 2549), the aHRs for COVID-19 hospitalization and for severe COVID-19 were 1.08 (95% CI 0.48–2.40) and 1.23 (95% CI = 0.37–4.04), respectively, compared to controls. Moreover, among all patients diagnosed with COVID-19, the presence of underlying CLD was not associated with increased mortality (aHR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.61–1.19).

Conclusions

In this nationwide cohort, patients with CLD had a higher risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 compared to the general population, but they did not have an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-02017-8.