Predicting the geography of species' invasions via ecological niche modeling

Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni

Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni are vectors of many flea-borne diseases. They were widely recorded in the United States and Mexico between 1970 and 2000. Maximum entropy models were used to explore the habitats of both fleas under different climate scenarios to provide the scientific basis for the surveillance and control of flea-borne diseases. We screened climate variables by principal component analysis and Pearson's correlation test and evaluated model performance by ROC curve. ArcMap was used to visualize expressions. Under current climatic conditions, the medium and highly suitable areas for P. simulans are estimated to be 9.16 × 106 km2 and 4.97 × 106 km2, respectively. These regions are predominantly located in South America, along the Mediterranean coast of Europe, the southern part of the African continent, the Middle East, North China, and Australia. For P. gwyni, the medium and highly suitable areas under current climatic conditions are approximately 4.01 × 106 and 2.04 × 106 km2, respectively, with the primary distribution in North China extending to the Himalayas, near the Equator in Africa, and in a few areas of Europe. Under future climate scenarios, in the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the years 2081-2100, the area of high suitability for P. simulans is projected to reach its maximum. Similarly, in the SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2061-2080, the area of high suitability for P. gwyni is expected to reach its maximum. Under global climate change, there is a large range in the potential distribution for both fleas, with an overall upward trend in the area of habitat under future climate scenarios. Governments should develop scientific prevention and control measures to prevent the invasive alien species flea.

Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae)

Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.

Adaptation to bioinvasions: When does it occur?

The presence of alien species represents a major cause of habitat degradation and biodiversity loss worldwide, constituting a critical environmental challenge of our time. Despite sometimes experiencing reduced propagule pressure, leading to a reduced genetic diversity and an increased chance of inbreeding depression, alien invaders are often able to thrive in the habitats of introduction, giving rise to the so-called "genetic paradox" of biological invasions. The adaptation of alien species to the new habitats is therefore a complex aspect of biological invasions, encompassing genetic, epigenetic, and ecological processes. Albeit numerous studies and reviews investigated the mechanistic foundation of the invaders' success, and aimed to solve the genetic paradox, still remains a crucial oversight regarding the temporal context in which adaptation takes place. Given the profound knowledge and management implications, this neglected aspect of invasion biology should receive more attention when examining invaders' ability to thrive in the habitats of introduction. Here, we discuss the adaptation mechanisms exhibited by alien species with the purpose of highlighting the timing of their occurrence during the invasion process. We analyze each stage of the invasion separately, providing evidence that adaptation mechanisms play a role in all of them. However, these mechanisms vary across the different stages of invasion, and are also influenced by other factors, such as the transport speed, the reproduction type of the invader, and the presence of human interventions. Finally, we provide insights into the implications for management, and identify knowledge gaps, suggesting avenues for future research that can shed light on species adaptability. This, in turn, will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of biological invasions.

Niche conservatism and spread explain introgression between native and invasive fish

Hybridisation can be an important driver of evolutionary change, but hybridisation with invasive species can have adverse effects on native biodiversity. While hybridisation has been documented across taxa, there is limited understanding of ecological factors promoting patterns of hybridisation and the spatial distribution of hybrid individuals. We combined the results of ecological niche modelling (ENM) and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to test theories of niche conservatism and biotic resistance on the success of invasion, admixture, and extent of introgression between native and non-native fishes. We related Maxent predictions of habitat suitability based on the native ranges of invasive Eastern Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus diaphanus Lesueur 1817) and native Western Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus menona Jordan and Copeland 1877) to admixture indices of individual Banded Killifish. We found that Eastern Banded Killifish predominated at sites predicted as suitable from their ENM, consistent with niche conservatism. Admixed individuals were more common as Eastern Banded Killifish habitat suitability declined. We also found that Eastern Banded Killifish were most common at sites closest to the presumed source of this invasion, whereas the proportion of admixed individuals increased with distance from the source of invasion. Lastly, we found little evidence that habitat suitability for Western Banded Killifish provides biotic resistance from either displacement by, or admixture with, invasive Eastern Banded Killifish. Our study demonstrates that ENMs can inform conservation-relevant outcomes between native and invasive taxa while emphasising the importance of protecting isolated Western Banded Killifish populations from invasive conspecifics.

Forecasting the future of Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in India using ecological niche model

The Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda is the most notorious invasive pest species on maize, recently reported in India. The continuous spread of Fall armyworms to new ecological niches raises global concern. The current study is the first in India to forecast the suitability of a habitat for S. frugiperda using a maximum entropy algorithm. Predictions were made based on an analysis of the relationship between 109 occurrence records of S. frugiperda and pertinent historical, current, and predicted climatic data for the study area. The model indicated that S. frugiperda could thrive in different habitats under the current environmental circumstances, particularly in the west and south Indian states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The model predicted that areas with higher latitudes, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and some portions of Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as some tracts of northeastern states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, would have highly climate-suitable conditions for S. frugiperda to occur in the future. The average AUC value was 0.852, which indicates excellent accuracy of the prediction. A Jackknife test of variables indicated that isothermality with the highest gain value was determining the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda. Our results will be useful for serving as an early warning tool to guide decision-making and prevent further spread toward new areas in India.

Incidence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Cycle on the Existing Fundamental Niche and Establishment Risk of Some Anastrepha Species (Diptera-Tephritidae) of Horticultural Importance in the Neotropics and Panama

To compare the environmental space of four Anastrepha species in different ENSO episodes (El Niño, El Neutro and La Niña), we built ecological niche models with NicheA software. We analysed the fundamental niche and the combined establishment risk maps of these species developed with the ArcGisPro combine geoprocess. A comparison of the ellipsoids that represent the fundamental niche existing for the species showed changes in the El Niño, El Neutro and La Niña episodes. For A. grandis in the El Niño vs. El Neutro episodes, there was a Jaccard index of 0.3841, while the comparison between the La Niña vs. El Neutro episodes presented a Jaccard index of 0.6192. A. serpentina in the El Niño vs. El Neutro and La Niña vs. El Neutro episodes presented Jaccard indices of 0.3281 and 0.6328, respectively. For A. obliqua, the comparison between the El Niño vs. El Neutro and La Niña vs. El Neutro episodes presented Jaccard indices of 0.3518 and 0.7472, respectively. For A. striata, comparisons between the episodes of El Niño vs. El Neutro and La Niña vs. El Neutro presented Jaccard indices of 0.3325 and 0.6022, respectively. When studying the comparison between Anastrepha species and the different ENSO climatic episodes, we found that in the El Niño episode, the comparisons with the best environmental similarity were A. obliqua vs. A. striata and A. obliqua vs. A. serpentina, with higher Jaccard indices (0.6064 and 0.6316, respectively). In the El Neutro episode, the comparisons with the best environmental similarity were A. serpentina vs. A. striata and A. obliqua vs. A. striata, which presented higher Jaccard indices (0.4616 and 0.6411, respectively). In the La Niña episode, the comparisons that presented the best environmental similarity were A. obliqua vs. A. serpentina and A. obliqua vs. A. striata, with higher Jaccard indices (0.5982 and 0.6228, respectively). Likewise, our results present the risk maps for the establishment of these species throughout the Neotropics, allowing us to predict the level of risk in order to develop integrated pest management plans.

Investigating the effects of species niche shifts on the potential distribution of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) by using global occurrence data

Invasive species may occupy quite different environments in their invaded areas to native ones, which may intensively interfere with predicting potential distribution through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Here, we take the tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), a tomato pest, as an example to investigate this topic. We analyzed niche expansion, stability, unfilling, and Schoener's D by principal component analysis (PCA) ordination method to examine its realized niche shifts and to explore how ENM approaches are affected by niche shifts. We used 5 datasets: Asian, African, European, South American, and global occurrence records in this study. Results showed that high niche unfilling for the species' invaded areas in Asia (20%), Africa (12%), and Europe (37%), possibly due to T. absoluta being in the early stages of invasion. High niche expansion was observed in Asia (38%) and Europe (19%), implying that some European and Asian populations had reached new climatic areas. African niche had the most niche stability (94%) and was equivalent to the native one in climate space (PCA ordination method), but the n-dimensional climate space framework showed that they were different. When projecting the native model to Asia and Europe, the native model performed poorly, implying that the niche shifts affected the transferability of the native model. ENM based on global data outperformed than other models, and our results suggested that T. absoluta has a large potential distribution in Asia, Mexico, South Europe, the United States, and Australia. Meanwhile, we recommend updating ENMs based on the species' invasion stage.

Increasing spread rates of tropical non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea

Warming as well as species introductions have increased over the past centuries, however a link between cause and effect of these two phenomena is still unclear. Here we use distribution records (1813-2023) to reconstruct the invasion histories of marine non-native macrophytes, macroalgae and seagrasses, in the Mediterranean Sea. We defined expansion as the maximum linear rate of spread (km year-1) and the accumulation of occupied grid cells (50 km2) over time and analyzed the relation between expansion rates and the species' thermal conditions at its native distribution range. Our database revealed a marked increase in the introductions and spread rates of non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea since the 1960s, notably intensifying after the 1990s. During the beginning of this century species velocity of invasion has increased to 26 ± 9 km2 year-1, with an acceleration in the velocity of invasion of tropical/subtropical species, exceeding those of temperate and cosmopolitan macrophytes. The highest spread rates since then were observed in macrophytes coming from native regions with minimum SSTs two to three degrees warmer than in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, most non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean (>80%) do not exceed the maximum temperature of their range of origin, whereas approximately half of the species are exposed to lower minimum SST in the Mediterranean than in their native range. This indicates that tropical/subtropical macrophytes might be able to expand as they are not limited by the colder Mediterranean SST due to the plasticity of their lower thermal limit. These results suggest that future warming will increase the thermal habitat available for thermophilic species in the Mediterranean Sea and continue to favor their expansion.

Predicting the dispersal and invasion dynamics of ambrosia beetles through demographic reconstruction and process-explicit modeling

Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America. We used Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff 1868 as a study subject and estimated its demography in the laboratory in a temperature gradient (17, 20, 26, 29, 35 °C), which we then used to parameterize a process-based model to estimate its metapopulation dynamics. The maximum intrinsic growth rate of X. bispinatus is 0.13 with a thermal optimum of 26.2 °C. The models suggest important regions for the establishment and dispersal the states of Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca (high host and secondary vectors diversity), the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (connectivity region), and Michoacán and Jalisco (important avocado plantations). The use of hybrid process-based models is a promising tool to refine the predictions applied to the study of biological invasions and species distributions.

Impact of the climatic changes in the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition on Irano-Turanian species. The radiation of genus Jurinea (Compositae)

The Irano-Turanian region is one of the world's richest floristic regions and the centre of diversity for numerous xerophytic plant lineages. However, we still have limited knowledge on the timing of evolution and biogeographic history of its flora, and potential drivers of diversification remain underexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, we focus on the Eurasian genus Jurinea (ca. 200 species), one of the largest plant radiations that diversified in the region. We applied a macroevolutionary integrative approach to explicitly test diversification hypotheses and investigate the relative roles of geography vs. ecology and niche conservatism vs. niche lability in speciation processes. To do so, we gathered a sample comprising 77% of total genus richness and obtained data about (1) its phylogenetic history, recovering 502 nuclear loci sequences; (2) growth forms; (3) ecological niche, compiling data of 21 variables for more than 2500 occurrences; and (4) paleoclimatic conditions, to estimate climatic stability. Our results revealed that climate was a key factor in the evolutionary dynamics of Jurinea. The main diversification and biogeographic events that occurred during past climate changes, which led to colder and drier conditions, are the following: (1) the origin of the genus (10.7 Ma); (2) long-distance dispersals from the Iranian Plateau to adjacent regions (∼7-4 Ma); and (3) the diversification shift during Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (ca. 3 Ma), when net diversification rate almost doubled. Our results supported the pre-adaptation hypothesis, i.e., the evolutionary success of Jurinea was linked to the retention of the ancestral niche adapted to aridity. Interestingly, the paleoclimatic analyses revealed that in the Iranian Plateau long-term climatic stability favoured old-lineage persistence, resulting in current high species richness of semi-arid and cold adapted clades; whereas moderate climate oscillations stimulated allopatric diversification in the lineages distributed in the Circumboreal region. In contrast, growth form lability and high niche disparity among closely related species in the Central Asian clade suggest adaptive radiation to mountain habitats. In sum, the radiation of Jurinea is the result of both adaptive and non-adaptive processes influenced by climatic, orogenic and ecological factors.

Habitat overlap among native and introduced cold-water fishes in the Himalayas

Fish invasions threaten native freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet methods to map biodiversity in data-deficient regions are scarce. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) have been introduced to the Himalayan ecoregion where they are sympatric with vulnerable native snow trout Schizothorax plagiostomus and Schizothorax richardsonii. We aim to evaluate potential habitat overlap among snow trout and non-native trout in the Indus and Ganges River basins, Himalayan ecoregion. We transferred maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models developed with spatially continuous freshwater-specific environmental variables to map the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for rainbow and brown trout in the Himalayas. We adopted a similar procedure to map suitable habitats for snow trout species. There were substantial habitat overlaps (up to 96%) among snow trout and non-native trout. Yet, the physiography of receiving basins could play a role minimizing the impacts of each non-native trout on native snow trout. We generate high-resolution classified stream suitability maps as decision support tools to help managers in habitat allocation and policy formation to balance recreational fisheries with conservation of snow trout. Our workflow can be transferred to other basins and species for mapping freshwater biodiversity patterns in species-rich yet data-poor regions of the world.

From North/Central America to the World? Assessing the potential of Pycnoderes quadrimaculatus Guerin-Meneville (Heteroptera: Miridae) as a pest through Ecological Niche Models

BACKGROUND

Pycnoderes quadrimaculatus is a pest that feeds on several plants, many of which are economically important. It is native to North/Central America and its distribution has expanded to several countries in South America.

RESULTS

Ecological niche models show that P. quadrimaculatus has invaded regions with climates different from those of its native range, and that there are suitable climatic conditions for its establishment worldwide. Regions where P. quadrimaculatus is a major threat and possible natural pathways of ingression were identified. In the future, its distribution will be modified by climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides useful information for risk assessment and pest management of P. quadrimaculatus. According to our results, the species has great potential as a pest because it can adapt to different climatic conditions and feeds on a wide range of economically important plants. Over time, its distribution has expanded, and our models suggest that it will continue to invade other regions unless preventive measures are taken. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Uncovering the Grinnellian niche space of the cryptic species complex Gammarus roeselii

BACKGROUND

The discovery of cryptic species complexes within morphologically established species comes with challenges in the classification and handling of these species. We hardly know to what extent species within a species complex differ ecologically. Such knowledge is essential to assess the vulnerability of individual genetic lineages in the face of global change. The abiotic conditions, i.e., the Grinnellian niche that a genetic lineage colonizes, provides insights into how diverse the ecological requirements of each evolutionary lineage are within a species complex.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We sampled the cryptic species complex of the amphipod Gammarus roeselii from Central Germany to Greece and identified genetic lineages based on cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) barcoding. At the same time, we recorded various abiotic parameters and local pollution parameters using a series of in vitro assays to then characterize the Grinnellian niches of the morphospecies (i.e., Gammarus roeselii sensu lato) as well as each genetic lineage. Local pollution can be a significant factor explaining current and future distributions in times of increasing production and release of chemicals into surface waters.

RESULTS

We identified five spatially structured genetic lineages in our dataset that differed to varying degrees in their Grinnellian niche. In some cases, the niches were very similar despite the geographical separation of lineages, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism while being allopatrically separated. In other cases, we found a small niche that was clearly different from those of other genetic lineages.

CONCLUSION

The variable niches and overlaps of different dimensions make the G. roeselii species complex a promising model system to further study ecological, phenotypic and functional differentiation within this species complex. In general, our results show that the Grinnellian niches of genetically distinct molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) within a cryptic species complex can differ significantly between each other, calling for closer inspection of cryptic species in a conservational and biodiversity context.

Older forests function as energetic and demographic refugia for a climate-sensitive species

More frequent and extreme heat waves threaten climate-sensitive species. Structurally complex, older forests can buffer these effects by creating cool microclimates, although the mechanisms by which forest refugia mitigate physiological responses to heat exposure and subsequent population-level consequences remain relatively unexplored. We leveraged fine-scale movement data, doubly labeled water, and two decades of demographic data for the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) to (1) assess the role of older forest characteristics as potential energetic buffers for individuals and (2) examine the subsequent value of older forests as refugia for a core population in the Sierra Nevada and a periphery population in the San Bernardino Mountains. Individuals spent less energy moving during warmer sampling periods and the presence of tall canopies facilitated energetic conservation during daytime roosting activities. In the core population, where tall-canopied forest was prevalent, temperature anomalies did not affect territory occupancy dynamics as warmer sites were both less likely to go extinct and less likely to become colonized, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and temperature exposure. In the peripheral population, sites were more likely to become unoccupied following warm summers, presumably because of less prevalent older forest conditions. While individuals avoided elevated energetic expenditure associated with temperature exposure, behavioral strategies to conserve energy may have diverted time and energy from reproduction or territory defense. Conserving older forests, which are threatened due to fire and drought, may benefit individuals from energetic consequences of exposure to stressful thermal conditions.

Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change

The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum, and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes, that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species (P. officinarum) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species (G. lucidum) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8.

Potential dynamic changes of single-season rice planting suitability across China

As an important food crop in China, changes in suitable areas for rice planting are critical to agricultural production. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to pick the main climatic factors affecting single-season rice planting distribution and project the potential changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It was clear that rice planting distribution was significantly affected by annual total precipitation, the accumulated temperature during a period in which daily temperature was ≥ 10 °C, the moisture index, total precipitation during April-September, and continuous days during the period of daily temperature ≥ 18 °C, with their contribution being 97.6%. There was a continuous decrease in the area of good and high suitability for rice planting projected from 2021-2040 to 2061-2080, with a respective value ranging from 1.49 × 10⁶ km² to 0.93 × 10⁶ km² under the RCP4.5 scenario and from 1.42 × 10⁶ km² to 0.66 × 10⁶ km² under RCP8.5 scenarios. In 2081-2100, there was a bit increase in the area of good and high suitability under the RCP4.5 scenario. The most significant increases in good and high suitability were detected in Northeast China, while obvious decreases were demonstrated in the Yangtze River Basin which might be exposed to extreme temperature threat. The spatial potential planting center was characterized by the largest planting area in 25°N-37°N and 98°E-134°E. The north boundary and center of rice cultivation arose to 53.5°N and 37.52°N, respectively. These potential distributions for single-season rice under future climate change can provide a theoretical basis for optimizing rice planting layout, improving cultivation, and adjusting variety and management systems in response to climate change.

Consequences of climate-induced range expansions on multiple ecosystem functions

Climate-driven species range shifts and expansions are changing community composition, yet the functional consequences in natural systems are mostly unknown. By combining a 30-year survey of subalpine pond larval caddisfly assemblages with species-specific functional traits (nitrogen and phosphorus excretion, and detritus processing rates), we tested how three upslope range expansions affected species' relative contributions to caddisfly-driven nutrient supply and detritus processing. A subdominant resident species (Ag. deflata) consistently made large relative contributions to caddisfly-driven nitrogen supply throughout all range expansions, thus "regulating" the caddisfly-driven nitrogen supply. Whereas, phosphorus supply and detritus processing were regulated by the dominant resident species (L. externus) until the third range expansion (by N. hostilis). Since the third range expansion, N. hostilis's relative contribution to caddisfly-driven phosphorus supply increased, displacing L. externus's role in regulating caddisfly-driven phosphorus supply. Meanwhile, detritus processing contributions became similar among the dominant resident, subdominant residents, and range expanding species. Total ecosystem process rates did not change throughout any of the range expansions. Thus, shifts in species' relative functional roles may occur before shifts in total ecosystem process rates, and changes in species' functional roles may stabilize processes in ecosystems undergoing change.

Whether curse or blessing: A counterintuitive perspective on global pest thrips infestation under climatic change with implications to agricultural economics

The improvement and application of pest models to predict yield losses is still a challenge for the scientific community. However, pest models were targeted chiefly towards scheduling scouting or pesticide applications to deal with pest infestation. Thysanoptera (thrips) significantly impact the productivity of many economically important crops worldwide. Until now, no comprehensive study is available on the global distribution of pest thrips, as well as on the extent of cropland vulnerability worldwide. Further, nothing is known about the climate change impacts on these insects. Thus the present study was designed to map the global distribution and quantify the extent of cropland vulnerability in the present and future climate scenarios using data of identified pest thrips within the genus, i.e., Thrips, Frankliniella, and Scirtothrips. Our found significant niche contraction under the climate change scenarios and thrips may reside primarily in their thermal tolerance thresholds. About 3,98,160 km² of cropland globally was found to be affected in the present scenario. However, it may significantly reduce to 5530 Km² by 2050 and 1990 km² by 2070. Further, the thrips distribution mostly getting restricted to Eastern North America, the North-western of the Indian sub-continent, and the north of Europe. Among all realms, thrips may lose ground in the Indo-Malayan realm at the most and get restricted to only 27 out of 825 terrestrial ecoregions. The agrarian communities of the infested regions may get benefit if these pests get wiped out, but on the contrary, we may lose species diversity. Moreover, the vacated niche may attract other invasive species, which may seriously impact the species composition and agricultural productivity. The present study findings can be used in making informed decisions about prioritizing future economic and research investments on the thrips in light of anticipated climate change impacts.

Niche Filling Dynamics of Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) during Global Invasion

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed's climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.

Mapping the potential for offshore aquaculture of salmonids in the Yellow Sea

Mariculture has been one of the fastest-growing global food production sectors over the past three decades. With the congestion of space and deterioration of the environment in coastal regions, offshore aquaculture has gained increasing attention. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) are two important aquaculture species and contribute to 6.1% of world aquaculture production of finfish. In the present study, we established species distribution models (SDMs) to identify the potential areas for offshore aquaculture of these two cold-water fish species considering the mesoscale spatio-temporal thermal heterogeneity of the Yellow Sea. The values of the area under the curve (AUC) and the true skill statistic (TSS) showed good model performance. The suitability index (SI), which was used in this study to quantitatively assess potential offshore aquaculture sites, was highly dynamic at the surface water layer. However, high SI values occurred throughout the year at deeper water layers. The potential aquaculture areas for S. salar and O. mykiss in the Yellow Sea were estimated as 52,270 ± 3275 (95% confidence interval, CI) and 146,831 ± 15,023 km², respectively. Our results highlighted the use of SDMs in identifying potential aquaculture areas based on environmental variables. Considering the thermal heterogeneity of the environment, this study suggested that offshore aquaculture for Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout was feasible in the Yellow Sea by adopting new technologies (e.g., sinking cages into deep water) to avoid damage from high temperatures in summer.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-022-00141-2.

Predicting catchment suitability for biodiversity at national scales

Biomonitoring of water quality and catchment management are often disconnected, due to mismatching scales. Considerable effort and money are spent each year on routine reach-scale surveying across many sites, particularly in countries like the UK, where nationwide sampling has been conducted using standardised techniques for many decades. Most of these traditional freshwater biomonitoring schemes focus on pre-defined indicators of organic pollution to compare observed vs expected subsets of common macroinvertebrate indicator species. Other taxa, including many threatened species, are often ignored due to their rarity, as are many invasive species, which are seen as undesirable despite becoming increasingly common and widespread in freshwaters, especially in urban ecosystems. Both these types of taxa are often monitored separately for reasons related to biodiversity concerns rather than for gauging water quality. Repurposing such data could therefore provide important new biomonitoring tools that can help catchment managers to directly link the water quality they aim to control with the biodiversity they are trying to protect. Here we used extensive data held in the England Non-Native and Rare/Protected species records that track these two groups of species as a proof-of-concept for linking catchment scale management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to a range of potential drivers across England. We used national land use (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology land cover map) and water quality indicator (Environment Agency water quality data archive) datasets to predict, at the catchment scale, the presence or absence of 48 focal threatened or invasive species of concern routinely sampled by the English Environment Agency, with a median accuracy of 0.81 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A variety of water quality indicators and land-use types were useful in predictions, highlighting that future biomonitoring schemes could use such complementary measures to capture a wider spectrum of drivers and responses. In particular, the percentage of a catchment covered by freshwater was the single most important metric, reinforcing the need for space/habitat to support biodiversity, but we were also able to resolve a range of key environmental drivers for particular focal species. We show how our method could inform new catchment management approaches, by highlighting how key relationships can be identified and how to understand, visualise and prioritise catchments that are most suitable for restoration or water quality interventions. The scale of this work, in terms of number of species, drivers and locations, represents a significant step towards forging a new approach to catchment management that enables managers to link drivers they can control (water quality and land use) to the biota they are trying to protect (biodiversity).

Seasonal and Year-Round Distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and Its Risk to Temperate Fruits under Climate Change

Simple Summary

The oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is a pest species in the Tephritidae family that damages many fruits and vegetables. Dispersal of B. dorsalis is mediated by human activities (e.g., trade) and climate change, and it can cause serious damage to crops in newly invaded regions. Previous studies mainly focused on the areas potentially suitable for year-round reproduction, but it is unclear where the seasonal and year-round suitable areas are in the world. We used ecological niche models to predict the potential seasonal and year-round distribution areas of B. dorsalis. Bioclimate factors contributed differently to these two kinds of distributions. In the future, the areas suitable for B. dorsalis will increase, and the range will likely expand northward from existing locations. The spread of B. dorsalis in the seasonally suitable areas could threaten the production of some temperate fruits, including apples, peaches, pears, and oranges.

Abstract

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is an important pest to fruits and vegetables. It can damage more than 300 plant species. The distribution of B. dorsalis has been expanding owing to international trade and other human activities. B. dorsalis occurrence is strongly related to suitable overwintering conditions and distribution areas, but it is unclear where these seasonal and year-round suitable areas are. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to predict the potential seasonal and year-round distribution areas of B. dorsalis. We also projected suitable habitat areas in 2040 and 2060 under global warming scenarios, such as SSP126 and SSP585. These models achieved AUC values of 0.860 and 0.956 for the seasonal and year-round scenarios, respectively, indicating their good prediction capabilities. The precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2) contributed 83.9% to the seasonal distribution prediction model. Bio2 and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) provided important information related to the year-round distribution prediction. In future scenarios, the suitable area of B. dorsalis will increase and the range will expand northward. Four important temperate fruits, namely, apples, peaches, pears, and oranges, will be seriously threatened. The information from this study provides a useful reference for implementing improved population management strategies for B. dorsalis.

Habitat distribution change of commercial species in the Adriatic Sea during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to reduced anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems in several world areas, but resulting ecosystem responses in these areas have not been investigated. This paper presents an approach to make quick assessments of potential habitat changes in 2020 of eight marine species of commercial importance in the Adriatic Sea. Measurements from floating probes are interpolated through an advection-equation based model. The resulting distributions are then combined with species observations through an ecological niche model to estimate habitat distributions in the past years (2015–2018) at 0.1° spatial resolution. Habitat patterns over 2019 and 2020 are then extracted and explained in terms of specific environmental parameter changes. These changes are finally assessed for their potential dependency on climate change patterns and anthropogenic pressure change due to the pandemic. Our results demonstrate that the combined effect of climate change and the pandemic could have heterogeneous effects on habitat distributions: three species (Squilla mantis, Engraulis encrasicolus, and Solea solea) did not show significant niche distribution change; habitat suitability positively changed for Sepia officinalis, but negatively for Parapenaeus longirostris, due to increased temperature and decreasing dissolved oxygen (in the Adriatic) generally correlated with climate change; the combination of these trends with an average decrease in chlorophyll, probably due to the pandemic, extended the habitat distributions of Merluccius merluccius and Mullus barbatus but reduced Sardina pilchardus distribution. Although our results are based on approximated data and reliable at a macroscopic level, we present a very early insight of modifications that will possibly be observed years after the end of the pandemic when complete data will be available. Our approach is entirely based on Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data and is general enough to be used for other species and areas.

Contrasting patterns from two invasion fronts suggest a niche shift of an invasive predator of native bees

Background

The accuracy of predictions of invasive species ranges is dependent on niche similarity between invasive and native populations and on our ability to identify the niche characteristics. With this work we aimed to compare the niche dynamics of two genetically related invasive populations of Vespa velutina (an effective predator of honeybees and wild pollinators), in two distinct climatic regions, one in central Europe and another one in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, and hence to identify uninvaded regions susceptible to invasion.

Methods

Niche dynamics and shifts of V. velutina were assessed by comparing the environmental niches of the native and of the two invasive populations, using climatic, topographic and land use variables. We also ran reciprocal distribution models using different algorithms and records from both native and invasive ranges to compare model predictions and estimate which regions are at a greater risk of being invaded.

Results

An apparent niche shift was detected in the population of the NW of Iberian Peninsula, where the species is living under environmental conditions different from the native niche. In central Europe, large suitable areas remain unoccupied. The fact that both invasive populations are well established, despite occupying environmentally distinct regions indicates that V. velutina has a high ability to successfully invade different environmental envelopes from those existing in its native range. For example, in north-western Iberian Peninsula the species is now thriving out of its native niche limits. Moreover, the large extent of still unoccupied environmental space with similar conditions to those used by the species in its native range suggests that there is still a large area of central and eastern Europe that can be potentially invaded by the species.

The Future Climate under Different CO2 Emission Scenarios Significantly Influences the Potential Distribution of Achnatherum inebrians in China

The threat posed by poisonous weeds to grassland ecosystems may be exacerbated by climate change mainly driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Achnatherum inebrians is a common and poisonous grassland weed that is seriously endangering the sustainable development of prairie animal husbandry in Western China. Understanding the influence of future climate change under different CO2 emission scenarios on the potential distributions of A. inebrians is critical for planning agricultural strategies to manage the continued invasion. An ecological niche model (ENM) was developed using Maxent to predict the potential distribution of A. inebrians under three different CO2 emission scenarios. Occurrence records of A. inebrians were selected utilizing the nearest neighbor method. Six environmental variables, which were identified through principal component analysis, correlation analysis and their contribution rates, were used to perform the ENM. At the same time, considering the uncertainties of predicting future climates, four global circulation models were used for the Maxent projections with average results calculated. Our results demonstrate differential influences of various CO2 emission scenarios on the potential distributions of A. inebrians. Before 2050, high CO2 emission scenarios resulted in a wider potential distribution of A. inebrians, when compared to low CO2 emission scenarios. However, after 2050, the low CO2 emission scenarios were more conducive to an expanded potential distribution. In addition, after 2050, high CO2 emission scenarios maintain the geographical distribution centroids of A. inebrians in lower latitudes, while low CO2 emission scenarios result in distribution centroids rising to higher latitudes. Further, low CO2 emission scenarios resulted in the average potential distribution elevation dropping lower than in high CO2 emission scenarios.

Invasive Stages within Alien Species and Hutchinson’s Duality: An Example Using Invasive Plants of the Family Fabaceae in Central Chile

To understand the factors that limit invasive expansion in alien species, it is critical to predict potential zones of colonization. Climatic niche can be an important way to predict the potential distribution of alien species. This correlation between niche and geographic distribution is called Hutchinson’s duality. A combination of global and regional niches allows four invasive stages to be identified: quasi-equilibrium, local adaptation, colonization and sink stage. We studied the invasive stages of six alien leguminous species either in the niche or the geographical space. In five of the six species, a higher proportion of populations were in the quasi-equilibrium stage. Notably, Acacia species had the highest proportion of populations in local adaptation. This picture changed dramatically when we projected the climatic niche in the geographic space: in all species the colonization stage had the highest proportional projected area, ranging from 50 to 90%. Our results are consistent with Hutchinson’s duality, which predicts that small areas in the niche space can be translated onto large areas of the geographic space. Although the colonization stage accounted for a low proportion of occurrences, in all species, the models predicted the largest areas for this stage. This study complements invasive stages, projecting them in geographic space.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of rabies and habitat suitability of the common marmoset Callithrix jacchus in Brazil

Rabies transmitted by wildlife is now the main source of human rabies in the Americas. The common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus, is considered a reservoir of rabies causing sporadic and unpredictable human deaths in Brazil, but the extent of the spillover risk to humans remains unknown. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies affecting C. jacchus reported to Brazil’s Ministry of Health passive surveillance system between 2008 and 2020, and combined ecological niche modelling with C. jacchus occurrence data to predict its suitable habitat. Our results show that 67 outbreaks (91 cases) of rabies affecting C. jacchus were reported by 41 municipalities between January 2008 and October 2020, with a mean of 5 outbreaks/year [range: 1–14]. The maximum number of outbreaks and municipalities reporting cases occurred in 2018, coinciding with higher surveillance of primate deaths due to Yellow Fever. A mean of 3 [1–9] new municipalities reported outbreaks yearly, suggesting potential spatial expansions of the C. jacchus variant in northeastern Brazil and emerging rabies spillover from vampire bat Desmodus rotundus to C. jacchus in the north and south. Outbreaks were concentrated in the states of Ceará (72%) and Pernambuco (16%) up to 2012, but are now reported in Piauí since 2013, in Bahia since 2017 (D. rotundus’ antigenic variant, AgV3) and in Rio de Janeiro since 2019 (AgV3). Besides confirming suitable habitat for this primate in the northeast and the east coast of Brazil, our Maximum Entropy model also predicted suitable habitat on the north and the west states of the country but predicted low habitat suitability among inland municipalities of the Caatinga biome reporting rabies. Our findings revealed new areas reporting rabies infecting C. jacchus, highlighting the need to implement strategies limiting spillover to humans and to better understand the drivers of C. jacchus rabies dynamics.

Rabies virus is the deadliest virus affecting mammals. In Brazil, rabies transmitted by the common marmoset primate is emerging and causing unpredictable human deaths. This primate once endemic to the northeast of the country has now invaded regions in the south throughout human-mediated introductions. However, the dynamics of rabies in this primate and the extend of spillover risk to humans remain unknown. We found that outbreaks of rabies in this marmoset reported to the Ministry of Health are continuously reported in new areas, including three new states since 2012 and three states reporting rabies originated from the common vampire bat. We also showed that this primate has suitable habitat to invade other states in the north and west of Brazil. Preventive strategies should be implemented to limit further rabies spillover to humans in new areas.

Synergistic effects of climate and landscape change on the conservation of Amazonian lizards

The leading causes of the worldwide decline in biodiversity are global warming, allied with natural habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we propose an analysis of the synergistic effects of these two factors in 63 species of Amazonian lizards. We predicted that the high-climatic suitability areas of species would be significantly impacted by different deforestation scenarios and the resultant landscape structure and considered that forest-dwelling species would be especially susceptible to deforestation scenarios. We also pointed out species threatened by both drivers and suggested critical areas for their future conservation. According to our results, most species will face future reductions in suitable areas for their occurrence according to five different patterns, two of which represent significant risks for 15 species. Some of these species already deal with severe habitat loss and fragmentation of their current distribution ranges, whereas others will suffer a considerable area reduction related to future range shifts. We emphasize the importance of protected areas (PAs), especially indigenous lands, and the need to plan combined strategies involving PAs' maintenance and possible implementation of ecological corridors. Finally, we highlight eight species of thermoconformer lizards that constitute present and future conservation concerns related to the combined effects of climate change and habitat loss and that should be carefully evaluated in extinction risk assessments.

Assessing the Invasion Risk of Humulus scandens Using Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling and Habitat Connectivity Analysis

Given the rapid spread of invasive alien plant species in Europe and limited information regarding their distribution and dispersion patterns, we analyzed the invasive risk of Humulus scandens, a species with an increased invasive potential. We collected occurrence records from Romania within an EU funded project and literature data, in order to perform an ensemble distribution model. Environmental variables varied from downscaled topoclimatic continuous entries to categorical ones, such as soil class, texture, or land use. Results showed potential core areas of the species within the study region. By inverting the probability output of the models, we have created a resistance surface which helped us model its dispersion patterns. Further, we assessed the probability of invasion for each resulted corridor using the species dispersion ecology and created an invasion risk map. H. scandens is highly influenced by milder climates and areas with constant flooding events, thus we found that the Tisa basin and its tributaries can be under a high invasion risk, spreading through the entire catchment, in Central, Western, and Northern Romania, towards the Eastern Carpathians. The Danube acted as a dispersion corridor for major river systems in southern Romania, but the dispersion capability of the species dropped in steppe areas with higher aridity and limited water course network. This approach is useful for creating adequate action plans in relation to invasive alien plant species, and should urgently be regarded, as results show a potentially large distribution of H. scandens across entire water catchment areas, with devastating effects on natural ecosystems.

Climate change and niche unfilling tend to favor range expansion of Moina macrocopa Straus 1820, a potentially invasive cladoceran in temporary waters

Non-native species' introductions have increased in the last decades primarily due to anthropogenic causes such as climate change and globalization of trade. Moina macrocopa, a stress-tolerant cladoceran widely used in bioassays and aquaculture, is spreading in temporary and semi-temporary natural ponds outside its natural range. Here, we characterize the variations in the climatic niche of M. macrocopa during its invasions outside the native Palearctic range following introduction into the American continent. Specifically, we examined to what extent the climatic responses of this species have diverged from those characteristics for its native range. We also made predictions for its potential distribution under current and future scenarios. We found that the environmental space occupied by this species in its native and introduced distribution areas shares more characteristics than randomly expected. However, the introduced niche has a high degree of unfilling when displacing its original space towards the extension to drier and hotter conditions. Accordingly, M. macrocopa can invade new areas where it has not yet been recorded in response to warming temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation. In particular, temporary ponds are more vulnerable environments where climatic and environmental stresses may also lower biotic resistance.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10750-022-04835-7.

Predicting the potential distribution of a previously undetected cryptic invasive synanthropic Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) in South Africa

Three species of Rattus, Norway rat (R. norvergicus), black rat (R. rattus) and Asian house rat (R. tanezumi) are currently known to occur in South Africa. The latter two species are cryptic and form part of the Rattus rattus species complex. Historically, R. norvegicus has been reported to occur along the coast and in urban centres, R. rattus is widespread in most urban areas, except in the drier areas, while R. tanezumi was only recorded to occur in the country (and Africa) ca. 15 years ago, and its distribution remains unknown. The aim of this study was to predict the potential distribution of R. tanezumi in South Africa and assess how it overlaps with that of R. norvegicus and R. rattus using species distribution modelling. Rattus tanezumi was predicted to mainly occur in most inland urban areas and along the coast. The distribution of R. rattus was as expected, in contrast, the predicted range of R. norvegicus was not restricted to the coast but also included inland urban areas. All three species showed broad potential distributional ranges that overlapped extensively indicating that their establishment and spread may be influenced by similar factors such as proximity to urban areas and a wet and moderate climate. These results allow insights into assessing their risk of establishment and for formulating appropriate intervention strategies for their management and control.

ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF <i>GALINSOGA </i>RUIZ ET PAV. SPECIES IN THE NATIVE AND CAUCASIAN PART OF THE INVASIVE RANGES

Adaptations of and developed in the tropical climate of the Mexican mountain region determine largely the predicted distribution of the species in the Caucasus. The complex factor of humidity is the main factor determining the potential distribution of and in the Caucasus (82 and 48% of the contribution in the Maxent models). Temperature and orographic ENVIREM predictors also play a significant role in the distribution of . The predicted range center of is located in the humid climate of the Black Sea coast, - in the relatively moisture foothill and mid-mountain regions of the Western Caucasus. The lowest probability of finding both species is predicted in the lowland (steppe) regions and in the arid climate of the Eastern Caucasus. The invasive potential of and in the Caucasus is similar: a high degree of overlapping (Schoener's D = 0.76) and the same width (Levins' B - 0.91 and 0.92) of ecological niches, their visual overlapping in the orthogonal space of the analyzed ecological factors. Differences in the potential spatial distribution of the species in the Caucasus are due to their biological characteristics (greater or lesser sensitivity to water regime and orographic factors).

Current and future potential distributions of Helicoverpa punctigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): is this the next FAW?

Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), the native budworm, is an important highly polyphagous pest that has caused serious damage on a wide variety of crops in Australia. In Australia, its range overlaps that of its congener, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a notorious invasive pest globally. We used CLIMEX, a bioclimatic niche modelling software package, to estimate the potential geographical distribution of H. punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). Under both current and future climate conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera could establish throughout the tropics and subtropics. Comparing the potential distributions under each climate scenario revealed that in the future its potential distribution is likely to shift poleward and into higher altitudes, into areas that are currently too cold as observed in the South of Brazil, Europe, North America, South East Asia, and South Pacific Islands including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for the management of this pest in each country.

Early detection of marine invasive species following the deployment of an artificial reef: Integrating tools to assist the decision-making process

Early detection and rapid response plans are a set of principles to reduce the establishment, spread and impact of invasive species and it is a critical step in management in marine ecosystems. Two potentially invasive ascidians attached to the hull of a recently sunk fishing vessel were early detected in Patagonia. With the aim of assisting in the management decision-making process during the early steps of a rapid response, we conducted several analyses through different approaches. First, we identified the species through classic taxonomical and genetic analyses. Then, we evaluated the regional and international shipping connectivity to study potential donor regions and finally, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the potential distribution of these species. The potentially invasive ascidians were identified as Styela clava and Styela plicata, and this is the first record for both species in the Nuevo gulf, Patagonia Argentina. Both species have a widespread distribution around the world with strong ecological and economic impacts documented. Shipping traffic analysis suggested that S. plicata could have arrived by secondary spread from regional ports, while the arrival of S. clava was likely to be associated with international shipping traffic. Furthermore, the SDM predicted that S. clava has suitable coastal areas along the entire Southwestern Atlantic shoreline, where it is currently absent. On the contrary, the SDM predicted that further southward spread of S. plicata is unlikely, being limited by the minimum annual temperature. We discussed the different approaches, tools, and expertise integrated in this work in the light of the decision-making process for the early detection of marine invasive species in the Southwestern Atlantic. Moreover, we call attention to the increased creation of artificial habitats through the intentional sinking of ships and the potential consequences of these actions in the conservation of marine ecosystems.