Strategies for using the National Death Index and the Social Security Administration for death ascertainment in large occupational cohort mortality studies

Buprenorphine treatment and clinical outcomes under the opioid use disorder cascade of care

BACKGROUND

Challenges to engagement and retention on buprenorphine undermine treatment of individuals with opioid use disorder (OUD). Under the OUD Cascade of Care framework, we sought to identify patient characteristics and treatment response associated with superior clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of specialty buprenorphine treatment patients entering treatment (n=19,487) based on EHR records from a large multi-state buprenorphine treatment network (2011-2019). Person-level care episodes were evaluated across treatment intake, engagement (i.e. 2+ visits in the month following intake), and retention at 6, 12, and 24 months. Time to achieving 90 days of continuous opioid abstinence was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regressions models and also assessed as a predictor of long-term retention.

RESULTS

Most patients engaged (82.4 %), but retention steadily declined over 6-month (38.7 %), 12-month (26.2 %), and 24-month (17.1 %) timepoints. Opioid-positive baseline tests were associated with lower hazards of achieving continuous abstinence for both buprenorphine-positive (aHR=0.33, p<.001) and buprenorphine-negative (aHR=0.49,p<.001) intakes. Opioid abstinence was associated with buprenorphine-positive baseline testing (aHR=1.59,p<.001), especially for those testing opioid-negative (aHR=1.82,p<.001). Patients who achieved and sustained abstinence at 6 months in care were 4.1 and 5.5 times as likely to achieve 12-month and 24-month retention, respectively, compared to patients with intermittent opioid use.

CONCLUSION

Treatment discontinuation was concentrated early in care and buprenorphine and opioid status at intake were prognostic of achieving and sustaining abstinence. Early abstinence was associated with higher likelihood of subsequent stage progression. Implementing interventions to support early clinical stability for high-risk patients is critical to improve clinical outcomes.

Incidence of Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome During Antipsychotic Treatment in Children and Youth: A National Cohort Study

Objective: The incidence of neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS), a rare, potentially fatal adverse effect of antipsychotics, among children and youth is unknown. This cohort study estimated NMS incidence in antipsychotic users age 5-24 years and described its variation according to patient and antipsychotic characteristics. Methods: We used national Medicaid data (2004-2013) to identify patients beginning antipsychotic treatment and calculated the incidence of NMS during antipsychotic current use. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) assessed the independent contribution of patient and antipsychotic characteristics to NMS risk. Results: The 1,032,084 patients had 131 NMS cases during 1,472,558 person-years of antipsychotic current use, or 8.9 per 100,000 person-years. The following five factors independently predicted increased incidence: age 18-24 years (HR [95% CI] = 2.45 [1.65-3.63]), schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders (HR = 5.86 [3.16-10.88]), neurodevelopmental disorders (HR = 7.11 [4.02-12.56]), antipsychotic dose >200mg chlorpromazine-equivalents (HR = 1.71 [1.15-2.54]), and first-generation antipsychotics (HR = 4.32 [2.74-6.82]). NMS incidence per 100,000 person-years increased from 1.8 (1.1-3.0) for those with none of these factors to 198.1 (132.8-295.6) for those with 4 or 5 factors. Findings were essentially unchanged in sensitivity analyses that restricted the study data to second-generation antipsychotics, children age 5-17 years, and the 5 most recent calendar years. Conclusion: In children and youth treated with antipsychotics, five factors independently identified patients with increased NMS incidence: age 18-24 years, schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders, neurodevelopmental disorders, first-generation drugs, and antipsychotic doses greater than 200 mg chlorpromazine-equivalents. Patients with 4 or 5 of these factors had more than 100 times the incidence of those with none. These findings could improve early identification of children and youth with elevated NMS risk, potentially leading to earlier detection and improved outcomes.

Antipsychotic Medications and Mortality in Children and Young Adults

Importance

Dose-related effects of antipsychotic medications may increase mortality in children and young adults.

Objective

To compare mortality for patients aged 5 to 24 years beginning treatment with antipsychotic vs control psychiatric medications.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a US national retrospective cohort study of Medicaid patients with no severe somatic illness or schizophrenia or related psychoses who initiated study medication treatment. Study data were analyzed from November 2022 to September 2023.

Exposures

Current use of second-generation antipsychotic agents in daily doses of less than or equal to 100-mg chlorpromazine equivalents or greater than 100-mg chlorpromazine equivalents vs that for control medications (α agonists, atomoxetine, antidepressants, and mood stabilizers).

Main Outcome and Measures

Total mortality, classified by underlying cause of death. Rate differences (RDs) and hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for potential confounders with propensity score-based overlap weights.

Results

The 2 067 507 patients (mean [SD] age, 13.1 [5.3] years; 1 060 194 male [51.3%]) beginning study medication treatment filled 21 749 825 prescriptions during follow-up with 5 415 054 for antipsychotic doses of 100 mg or less, 2 813 796 for doses greater than 100 mg, and 13 520 975 for control medications. Mortality was not associated with antipsychotic doses of 100 mg or less (RD, 3.3; 95% CI, -5.1 to 11.7 per 100 000 person-years; HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.89-1.32) but was associated with doses greater than 100 mg (RD, 22.4; 95% CI, 6.6-38.2; HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.11-1.70). For higher doses, antipsychotic treatment was significantly associated with overdose deaths (RD, 8.3; 95% CI, 0-16.6; HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.02-2.42) and other unintentional injury deaths (RD, 12.3; 95% CI, 2.4-22.2; HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.12-2.22) but was not associated with nonoverdose suicide deaths or cardiovascular/metabolic deaths. Mortality for children aged 5 to 17 years was not significantly associated with either antipsychotic dose, whereas young adults aged 18 to 24 years had increased risk for doses greater than 100 mg (RD, 127.5; 95% CI, 44.8-210.2; HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.23-2.29).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of more than 2 million children and young adults without severe somatic disease or diagnosed psychosis, antipsychotic treatment in doses of 100 mg or less of chlorpromazine equivalents or in children aged 5 to 17 years was not associated with increased risk of death. For doses greater than 100 mg, young adults aged 18 to 24 years had significantly increased risk of death, with 127.5 additional deaths per 100 000 person-years.

Socioeconomic status is associated with greater hazard of post-discharge mortality than race, gender, and ballistic injury mechanism in a young, healthy, orthopedic trauma population

OBJECTIVES

To explore the utility of legacy demographic factors and ballistic injury mechanism relative to popular markers of socioeconomic status as prognostic indicators of 10-year mortality following hospital discharge in a young, healthy patient population with isolated orthopedic trauma injuries.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed to evaluate patients treated at an urban Level I trauma center from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2016. Current Procedure Terminology (CPT) codes were used to identify upper and lower extremity fracture patients undergoing operative fixation. Exclusion criteria were selected to yield a patient population of isolated extremity trauma in young, otherwise healthy individuals between the ages of 18 and 65 years. Variables collected included injury mechanism, age, race, gender, behavior risk factors, Area Deprivation Index (ADI), and insurance status. The primary outcome was post-discharge mortality, occurring at any point during the study period.

RESULTS

We identified 2539 patients with operatively treated isolated extremity fractures. The lowest two quartiles of socioeconomic status (SES) were associated with higher hazard of mortality than the highest SES quartile in multivariable analysis (Quartile 3 HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2-4.1, p = 0.01; Quartile 4 HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.1-4.3, p = 0.02). Not having private insurance was associated with higher mortality hazard in multivariable analysis (HR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2, p = 0.002). The presence of any behavioral risk factor was associated with higher mortality hazard in univariable analysis (HR: 1.8, p < 0.05), but this difference did not reach statistical significance in multivariable analysis (HR: 1.4, 95%: 0.8-2.3, p = 0.20). Injury mechanism (ballistic versus blunt), gender, and race were not associated with increased hazard of mortality (p > 0.20).

CONCLUSION

Low SES is associated with a greater hazard of long-term mortality than ballistic injury mechanism, race, gender, and medically diagnosable behavioral risk factors in a young, healthy orthopedic trauma population with isolated extremity injury.

Increased odds of mortality from non-malignant respiratory disease and lung cancer are highest among US coal miners born after 1939

OBJECTIVES

Coal miners suffer increased mortality from non-malignant respiratory diseases (NMRD), including pneumoconioses and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with the US population. We characterised mortality trends from NMRD, lung cancer and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) using data from the Federal Black Lung Program, National Coal Workers' Health Surveillance Program and the National Death Index.

METHODS

We compared mortality ORs (MORs) for NMRD, lung cancer and IHD in former US coal miners to US white males. MORs were computed for the study period 1979-2017 by birth cohort (<1920, 1920-1929, 1930-1939, ≥1940), with a subanalysis restricted to Central Appalachia.

RESULTS

The study population totalled 235 550 deceased miners, aged >45 years. Odds of death from NMRD and lung cancer across all miner birth cohorts averaged twice those of US males. In Central Appalachia, MORs significantly increased across birth cohorts. There was an eightfold increase in odds of death from NMRD among miners born after 1940 (MORBC≥1940 8.25; 95% CI 7.67 to 8.87). Miners with progressive massive fibrosis (PMF) were younger at death than those without PMF (74 vs 78 years; p<0.0001). We observed a pattern of reduced MORs from IHD in coal miners compared with national and regional counterparts.

CONCLUSION

US coal miners have excess mortality from NMRD and lung cancer compared with total US and Appalachian populations. Mortality is highest in the most recent birth cohorts, perhaps reflecting increased rates of severe pneumoconiosis.

Racial Differences in Trends and Prognosis of Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy for Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Surveillance Study

BACKGROUND

Racial disparities in guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have not been fully documented in a community setting.

METHODS

In the ARIC Surveillance Study (2005-2014), we examined racial differences in GDMT at discharge, its temporal trends, and the prognostic impact among individuals with hospitalized HFrEF, using weighted regression models to account for sampling design. Optimal GDMT was defined as beta blockers (BB), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) and ACE inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB). Acceptable GDMT included either one of BB, MRA, ACEI/ARB or hydralazine plus nitrates (H-N).

RESULTS

Of 16,455 (unweighted n = 3,669) HFrEF cases, 47% were Black. Only ~ 10% were discharged with optimal GDMT with higher proportion in Black than White individuals (11.1% vs. 8.6%, p < 0.001). BB use was > 80% in both racial groups while Black individuals were more likely to receive ACEI/ARB (62.0% vs. 54.6%) and MRA (18.0% vs. 13.8%) than Whites, with a similar pattern for H-N (21.8% vs. 10.1%). There was a trend of decreasing use of optimal GDMT in both groups, with significant decline of ACEI/ARB use in Whites (- 2.8% p < 0.01) but increasing H-N use in both groups (+ 6.5% and + 9.2%, p < 0.01). Only ACEI/ARB and BB were associated with lower 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimal GDMT was prescribed in only ~ 10% of HFrEF patients at discharge but was more so in Black than White individuals. ACEI/ARB use declined in Whites while H-N use increased in both races. GDMT utilization, particularly ACEI/ARB, should be improved in Black and Whites individuals with HFrEF.

Evaluating novel methods of outcome assessment following cardiac arrest

INTRODUCTION

We compared novel methods of long-term follow-up after resuscitation from cardiac arrest to a query of the National Death Index (NDI). We hypothesized use of the electronic health record (EHR), and internet-based sources would have high sensitivity for identifying decedents identified by the NDI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study including patients treated after cardiac arrest at a single academic center from 2010 to 2018. We evaluated two novel methods to ascertain long-term survival and modified Rankin Scale (mRS): 1) a structured chart review of our health system's EHR; and 2) an internet-based search of: a) local newspapers, b) Ancestry.com, c) Facebook, d) Twitter, e) Instagram, and f) Google. If a patient was not reported deceased by any source, we considered them to be alive. We compared results of these novel methods to the NDI to calculate sensitivity. We queried the NDI for 200 in-hospital decedents to evaluate sensitivity against a true criterion standard.

RESULTS

We included 1,097 patients, 897 (82%) alive at discharge and 200 known decedents (18%). NDI identified 197/200 (99%) of known decedents. The EHR and local newspapers had highest sensitivity compared to the NDI (87% and 86% sensitivity, respectively). Online sources identified 10 likely decedents not identified by the NDI. Functional status estimated from EHR, and internet sources at follow up agreed in 38% of alive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel methods of outcome assessment are an alternative to NDI for determining patients' vital status. These methods are less reliable for estimating functional status.

Mortality of 196,826 Men and Women Working in U.S.-Based Petrochemical and Refinery Operations: Update 1979 to 2010

OBJECTIVE

To describe mortality trends of men and women working in various petrochemical and refinery operations of a U.S.-based company.

METHODS

The cohort consists of full-time employees with at least 1 day of service during 1979 through 2010. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for 111 possible causes of death studied.

RESULTS

SMRs for malignant mesothelioma and asbestosis were highest for the 1940s decade of hire. Increased SMRs were observed for malignant melanoma and motor neuron disease with no obvious work patterns. Decreasing mortality patterns were observed for aplastic anemia and acute nonlymphocytic leukemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality surveillance of this large established cohort aids in assessing the chronic health status of the workforce. Identifying methods for incorporating job-exposure matrices and nonoccupational risk factors could further enhance interpretations for some findings such as motor neuron disease.

Suicide risk in first year after dementia diagnosis in older adults

INTRODUCTION

Receiving a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease or related dementias (ADRD) can be a pivotal and stressful period. We examined the risk of suicide in the first year after ADRD diagnosis relative to the general geriatric population.

METHODS

We identified a national cohort of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥ 65 years with newly diagnosed ADRD (n = 2,667,987) linked to the National Death Index.

RESULTS

The suicide rate for the ADRD cohort was 26.42 per 100,000 person-years. The overall standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for suicide was 1.53 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.42, 1.65) with the highest risk among adults aged 65 to 74 years (SMR = 3.40, 95% CI = 2.94, 3.86) and the first 90 days after ADRD diagnosis. Rural residence and recent mental health, substance use, or chronic pain conditions were associated with increased suicide risk.

DISCUSSION

Results highlight the importance of suicide risk screening and support at the time of newly diagnosed dementia, particularly for patients aged < 75 years.

Suicide Risk Among Adults With Mental Health Emergency Department Visits With and Without Suicidal Symptoms

Objective: To describe risk factors and suicide rates during the year following discharge from mental health emergency department (ED) visits by adults with suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, or neither. Methods: National cohorts of patients with mental health ED visits for suicide attempts or self-harm (n = 55,323), suicidal ideation (n = 435,464), or other mental health visits (n = 9,144,807) from 2008 to 2012 Medicaid data were followed for suicide for 1 year after discharge. Suicide rates per 100,000 person-years were determined from National Death Index data. Poisson regression models, adjusted for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, estimated suicide rate ratios (RRs). Suicide standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated from National Vital Statistics System data. Results: Suicide rates per 100,000 person-years were 325.4 for suicide attempt or self-harm visits (RR = 5.51, 95% CI, 4.64-6.55), 156.6 for suicidal ideation visits (RR = 2.59, 95% CI, 2.34-2.87), and 57.0 for the other mental health ED visits (1.0, reference). Compared to expected suicide general population rates, SMRs were 18.2 (95% CI, 13.0-23.4) for suicide attempt or self-harm patients, 10.6 (95% CI, 9.0-12.2) for suicidal ideation patients, and 3.2 (95% CI, 3.1-3.4) for other ED mental health patients. Among patients with suicide attempt ED visits in the 180 days before their index mental health ED visit, suicide rates per 100,000 person-years were 687.2 (95% CI, 396.5-978.0) for attempt or self-harm visits, 397.4 (95% CI, 230.6-564.3) for ideation visits, and 328.4 (95% CI, 241.5-415.4) for other mental health visits. Conclusions: In the year following discharge, emergency department patients with suicide attempts or self-harm, especially repeated attempts, have a high risk of suicide.

The National Death Index as a Source of Homicide Data: A Methodological Exposition of Promises and Pitfalls for Criminologists

Criminologists largely rely on national de-identified data sources to study homicide in the United States. The National Death Index (NDI), a comprehensive and well-established database compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics, is an untapped source of homicide data that offers identifiable linkages to other data sources while retaining national coverage. This study's five aims follow. First, we review the data sources in articles published in Homicide Studies over the past decade. Second, we describe the NDI, including its origins, procedures, and uses. Third, we outline the procedures for linking a police gang intelligence database to the NDI. Fourth, we introduce the St. Louis Gang Member-Linked Mortality Files database, which is composed of 3,120 police-identified male gang members in the St. Louis area linked to NDI records. Finally, we report on preliminary cause-of-death findings. We conclude by outlining the benefits and drawbacks of the NDI as a source of homicide data for criminologists.

Conventional Ultrafiltration During Elective Cardiac Surgery and Postoperative Acute Kidney Injury

OBJECTIVE

Conventional ultrafiltration (CUF) during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) serves to hemoconcentrate blood volume to avoid allogeneic blood transfusions. Previous studies have determined CUF volumes as a continuous variable are associated with postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery, but optimal weight-indexed volumes that predict AKI have not been described.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING

Single-center university hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1,641 consecutive patients who underwent elective cardiac surgery between June 2013 and December 2015.

INTERVENTIONS

The CUF volume was removed during CPB in all participants as part of routine practice. The authors investigated the association of dichotomized weight-indexed CUF volume removal with postoperative AKI development to provide pragmatic guidance for clinical practice at the authors' institution.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Primary outcomes of postoperative AKI were defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes staging criteria and dichotomized, weight-indexed CUF volumes (mL/kg) were defined by (1) extreme quartiles (<Q1 v >Q3) and (2) Youden's criterion that best predicted AKI development. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed to test the association of these dichotomized indices with AKI status. Postoperative AKI occurred in 827 patients (50.4%). Higher CUF volumes were associated with AKI development by quartiles (CUF >Q₃ = 32.6 v CUF < Q₁ = 10.4 mL/kg; odds ratio [OR] = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.19-2.3) and Youden's criterion (CUF ≥ 32.9 v CUF <32.9 mL/kg; OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.21-2.13). Despite similar intraoperative nadir hematocrits among groups (p = 0.8), higher CUF volumes were associated with more allogeneic blood transfusions (p = 0.002) and longer lengths of stay (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Removal of weight-indexed CUF volumes > 32 mL/kg increased the risk for postoperative AKI development. Importantly, CUF volume removal of any amount did not mitigate allogeneic blood transfusion during elective cardiac surgery. Prospective studies are needed to validate these findings.

Association of Timely Outpatient Mental Health Services for Youths After Psychiatric Hospitalization With Risk of Death by Suicide

IMPORTANCE

Timely outpatient follow-up care after psychiatric hospitalization is an established mental health quality indicator and considered an important component of suicide prevention, yet little is known about whether follow-up care is associated with a reduced risk of suicide soon after hospital discharge.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether receipt of outpatient care within 7 days of psychiatric hospital discharge is associated with a reduced risk of subsequent suicide among child and adolescent inpatients and examine factors associated with timely follow-up care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based, retrospective, longitudinal cohort study used Medicaid data from 33 states linked with National Death Index data. The study population included all youths aged 10 to 18 years who were admitted to a psychiatric hospital from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2013. Data analysis was completed from October 9, 2019, through May 15, 2020.

EXPOSURE

Mental health follow-up visits received within 7 days of hospital discharge.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Suicides occurring in the 8 to 180 days after hospital discharge. Logistic regression modeled the association between demographic, clinical, and mental health service history factors and receipt of an outpatient visit within 7 days after discharge. Poisson regression estimated the association between suicide risk and outpatient visits within 7 days after discharge, adjusting for confounding using inverse probability of treatment weights from the logistic model.

RESULTS

Of the total 139 694 youths admitted to a psychiatric hospital, 51.9% were female, 31.1% were aged 10 to 13 years, and 68.9% were aged 14 to 18 years. A total of 56.5% of the youths received a mental health follow-up visit within 7 days of discharge, and this was associated with a significantly lower odds of suicide (adjusted relative risk, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.23-0.83; P = .01) during the 8 to 180 days postdischarge period. Youths with longer lengths of stay (4-5 days: adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.24]; 6-7 days: AOR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.43-1.52]; 8-12 days AOR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.69-1.81]; 13-30 days: AOR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.63-1.78]), prior outpatient mental health care (AOR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.51-1.65), and foster care placement (AOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.28-1.37) were more likely to receive 7-day follow-up, whereas those who were non-Hispanic Black (AOR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.84), were older (AOR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80-0.84), were medically ill (AOR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81), and had managed care insurance (AOR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.87-0.91) were less likely to receive follow-up visits.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, risk of suicide during the 6 months after psychiatric hospitalization was decreased among youth who had an outpatient mental health visit within 7 days after discharge. Addressing disparities in timely continuity of care may help advance health equity agendas.

Vital Status Ascertainment for a Historic Diverse Cohort of U.S. Women

BACKGROUND

Studies linking large pregnancy cohorts with mortality data can address critical questions about long-term implications of gravid health, yet relevant US data are scant. We examined the feasibility of linking the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a large multiracial U.S. cohort study of pregnant women (n = 48,197; 1959-1966), to death records.

METHODS

We abstracted essential National Death Index (NDI) (1979-2016) (n = 46,428). We performed a linkage to the Social Security Administration Death Master File through 2016 (n = 46,450). Genealogists manually searched vital status in 2016 for a random sample of women (n = 1,249). We conducted agreement analyses for women with abstracted data among the three sources. As proof of concept, we calculated adjusted associations between mortality and smoking and other sociodemographic factors using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

We successfully abstracted identifying information for most of the cohort (97%). National Death Index identified the greatest proportion of participants deceased (35%), followed by genealogists (31%) and Death Master File (23%). Estimates of agreement (κ [95% confidence interval]) between National Death Index and Death Master File were lower (0.52 [0.51, 0.53]) than for National Death Index and genealogist (0.66 [0.61, 0.70]). As expected, compared with nonsmokers, smoking ≥1 pack per day was associated with elevated mortality for all vital sources and was strongest for National Death Index.

CONCLUSIONS

Linking this historic cohort with mortality records was feasible and agreed reasonably on vital status when compared with other data sources. Such linkage enables future examination of pregnancy conditions in relation to mortality in a diverse U.S. cohort.

Factors Mediating Type 2 Diabetes Remission and Relapse after Gastric Bypass Surgery

BACKGROUND

Defining factors associated with remission and relapse of type 2 diabetes (T2D) after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) can allow targeting modifiable factors. We investigated factors associated with T2D remission and relapse after RYGB.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective review of consecutive patients with T2D who underwent RYGB between 1993 and 2017. T2D remission was defined as medication discontinuation and/or hemoglobin A1c <6.5%. Relapse was defined as recurrence medication use and/or hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%. Independent correlates of T2D remission and relapse were identified using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Six hundred and twenty-one patients (aged 46.7 ± 10.6 years; 30% on insulin; BMI 49.8 ± 8.3 kg/m²) had at least 1-year follow-up. Median follow-up was 4.9 years (range 1 to 23.6 years). Prevalence of T2D remission was 74% at 1 year, 73% from 1 to 3 years, 63% between 3 and 10 years, and 47% beyond 10 years. Ninety-three percent of remissions occurred within 3 years of RYGB, 25% relapsed. Median time to relapse was 5.3 years (interquartile range 3 to 7.8 years) after remission. Higher 1-year percentage total body weight loss, lack of preoperative insulin use, and younger age at operation were independently associated with T2D remission. Preoperative insulin use, lower percentage total body weight loss at 1 year, and greater percentage total body weight regain after 1 year were independently associated with T2D relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

This longitudinal retrospective analysis shows that preoperative insulin use and age, 1-year weight loss, and regain after that influence T2D remission and relapse after RYGB. Referring patients at a younger age, before insulin is needed, and optimizing weight loss and preventing weight regain after RYGB can improve the rates and durability of T2D remission.

Long-Term Survival After Drowning-Related Cardiac Arrest

BACKGROUND

Long-term outcomes after drowning-related cardiac arrest are not well characterized.

OBJECTIVE

Our aims were to estimate long-term survival and identify prognostic factors in a large, population-based cohort of drowning victims with cardiac arrest.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based prospective cohort study (1974-1996) of Western Washington Drowning Registry (WWDR) subjects with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and attempted professional resuscitation. The primary outcome was long-term survival through 2012. We tabulated Utstein-style exposure variables, estimated Kaplan-Meier curves, and identified prognostic factors with Cox proportional hazard modeling.

RESULTS

Of 2824 WWDR cases, 407 subjects (median age 17 years [interquartile range 3-33 years], 81% were male) were included. Only 54 (13%) were still alive after 1663 person-years of follow-up. Most deaths occurred after termination of initial resuscitation or during initial hospitalization. Risk of subsequent death after hospital discharge was 9.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.7-15.9) per 1000 person-years. Long-term survival differed by Utstein variables (older age, illicit substance use, pre-drowning activity, submersion duration, cardiopulmonary resuscitation duration, intubation, defibrillation, and medications) and inpatient markers of illness severity (vital signs, Glasgow Coma Scale, laboratory values, shock). In adjusted analyses, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.01; 95% CI 1.01-1.02), epinephrine administration (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.31-2.80), antiepileptic administration (HR 0.53; 95% CI 0.35-0.81), initial arterial pH (HR 0.49; 95% CI 0.26-0.92), and shock (HR 2.19; 95% CI 1.16-4.15) were associated with higher risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Most cases of drowning-related cardiac arrest were fatal, but survivors to hospital discharge had a low risk of subsequent death that was independently associated with older age and clinical evidence of shock.

Risks of fatal opioid overdose during the first year following nonfatal overdose

BACKGROUND

Little is known about risk factors for repeated opioid overdose and fatal opioid overdose in the first year following nonfatal opioid overdose.

METHODS

We identified a national retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients aged 18-64 years in the Medicaid program who received a clinical diagnosis of nonfatal opioid overdose. Repeated overdoses and fatal opioid overdoses were measured with the Medicaid record and the National Death Index. Rates of repeat overdose per 1000 person-years and fatal overdose per 100,000 person-years were determined. Hazard ratios of repeated opioid overdose and fatal opioid overdose were estimated by Cox proportional hazards.

RESULTS

Nearly two-thirds (64.8%) of the patients with nonfatal overdoses (total n = 75,556) had filled opioid prescriptions in the 180 days before initial overdose. During the 12 months after nonfatal overdose, the rate of repeat overdose was 295.0 per 1000 person-years and that of fatal opioid overdose was 1154 per 100,000 person-years. After controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and region, the hazard of fatal opioid overdose was increased for patients who had filled a benzodiazepine prescription in the 180 days prior to their initial overdose (HR = 1.71, 95%CI: 1.46-1.99), whose initial overdose involved heroin (HR = 1.57, 95%CI:1.30-1.89), or who required mechanical ventilation at the initial overdose (HR = 1.86, 95%CI = 1.50-2.31).

CONCLUSIONS

Adults treated for opioid overdose frequently have repeated opioid overdoses in the following year. They are also at high risk of fatal opioid overdose throughout this period, which underscores the importance of efforts to engage and maintain patients in evidence-based opioid treatments following nonfatal overdose.

Causes of Death After Nonfatal Opioid Overdose

Importance

A recent increase in patients presenting with nonfatal opioid overdoses has focused clinical attention on characterizing their risks of premature mortality.

Objective

To describe all-cause mortality rates, selected cause-specific mortality rates, and standardized mortality rate ratios (SMRs) of adults during their first year after nonfatal opioid overdose.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This US national longitudinal study assesses a cohort of patients aged 18 to 64 years who were Medicaid beneficiaries and experienced nonfatal opioid overdoses. The Medicaid data set included the years 2001 through 2007. Death record information was obtained from the National Death Index. Data analysis occurred from October 2017 to January 2018.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Crude mortality rates per 100 000 person-years were determined in the first year after nonfatal opioid overdose. Standardized mortality rate ratios (SMR) were estimated for all-cause and selected cause-specific mortality standardized to the general population with respect to age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

Results

The primary cohort included 76 325 adults and 66 736 person-years of follow-up. During the first year after nonfatal opioid overdose, there were 5194 deaths, the crude death rate was 778.3 per 10 000 person-years, and the all-cause SMR was 24.2 (95% CI, 23.6-24.9). The most common immediate causes of death were substance use-associated diseases (26.2%), diseases of the circulatory system (13.2%), and cancer (10.3%). For every cause examined, SMRs were significantly elevated, especially with respect to drug use-associated diseases (SMR, 132.1; 95% CI, 125.6-140.0), HIV (SMR, 45.9; 95% CI, 39.5-53.0), chronic respiratory diseases (SMR, 41.1; 95% CI, 36.0-46.8), viral hepatitis (SMR, 30.6; 95% CI, 22.9-40.2), and suicide (SMR, 25.9; 95% CI, 22.6-29.6), particularly including suicide among females (SMR, 47.9; 95% CI, 39.8-52.3).

Conclusions and Relevance

In a US national cohort of adults who had experienced a nonfatal opioid overdose, a marked excess of deaths was attributable to a wide range of substance use-associated, mental health, and medical conditions, underscoring the importance of closely coordinating the substance use, mental health, and medical care of this patient population.

Service Use Preceding Opioid-Related Fatality

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzed health service patterns before opioid-related death among nonelderly individuals in the Medicaid program, focusing on decedents with and without past-year diagnoses of noncancer chronic pain.

METHODS

The authors identified opioid-related decedents, age ≤64 years, in the Medicaid program and characterized their clinical diagnoses, filled medication prescriptions, and nonfatal poisoning events during the 30 days and 12 months before death. The study group included 13,089 opioid-related deaths partitioned by presence or absence of chronic noncancer pain diagnoses in the last year of life.

RESULTS

Most decedents (61.5%) had received clinical diagnoses of chronic noncancer pain conditions in the last year of life. As compared with decedents without chronic pain diagnoses, those with these diagnoses were significantly more likely to have filled prescriptions for opioids (49.0% versus 17.2%) and benzodiazepines (52.1% versus 26.6%) during the last 30 days of life, while diagnoses of opioid use disorder during this period were uncommon in both groups (4.2% versus 4.3%). The chronic pain group was also significantly more likely than the nonpain group to receive clinical diagnoses of drug use (40.8% versus 22.1%), depression (29.6% versus 13.0%) or anxiety (25.8% versus 8.4%) disorders during the last year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons dying of opioid-related causes, particularly those who were diagnosed with chronic pain conditions, commonly received services related to drug use disorders and mental disorders in the last year of life, though opioid use disorder diagnoses near the time of death were rare.

Predicting Mortality in African Americans With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor, Coronary Artery Calcium, and High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease; however, outcomes in individual patients vary. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a bone marrow-derived signaling molecule associated with adverse cardiovascular and renal outcomes in many populations. We characterized the determinants of suPAR in African Americans with type 2 diabetes mellitus and assessed whether levels were useful for predicting mortality beyond clinical characteristics, coronary artery calcium (CAC), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We measured plasma suPAR levels in 500 African Americans with type 2 diabetes mellitus enrolled in the African American-Diabetes Heart Study. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for clinical characteristics, CAC, and hs-CRP to examine the association between suPAR and all-cause mortality. Last, we report the change in C-statistics comparing the additive values of suPAR, hs-CRP, and CAC to clinical models for prediction of mortality. The suPAR levels were independently associated with female sex, smoking, insulin use, decreased kidney function, albuminuria, and CAC. After a median 6.8-year follow-up, a total of 68 deaths (13.6%) were recorded. In a model incorporating suPAR, CAC, and hs-CRP, only suPAR was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio 2.66, 95% confidence interval 1.63-4.34). Addition of suPAR to a baseline clinical model significantly improved the C-statistic for all-cause death (Δ0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.10), whereas addition of CAC or hs-CRP did not.

CONCLUSIONS

In African Americans with type 2 diabetes mellitus, suPAR was strongly associated with mortality and improved risk discrimination metrics beyond traditional risk factors, CAC and hs-CRP. Studies addressing the clinical usefulness of measuring suPAR concentrations are warranted.

Suicide After Deliberate Self-Harm in Adolescents and Young Adults

OBJECTIVES

Among adolescents and young adults with nonfatal self-harm, our objective is to identify risk factors for repeated nonfatal self-harm and suicide death over the following year.

METHODS

A national cohort of patients in the Medicaid program, aged 12 to 24 years (n = 32 395), was followed for up to 1 year after self-harm. Cause of death information was obtained from the National Death Index. Repeat self-harm per 1000 person-years and suicide deaths per 100 000 person-years were determined. Hazard ratios (HRs) of repeat self-harm and suicide were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. Suicide standardized mortality rate ratios were derived by comparison with demographically matched general population controls.

RESULTS

The 12-month suicide standardized mortality rate ratio after self-harm was significantly higher for adolescents (46.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 29.9-67.9) than young adults (19.2, 95% CI: 12.7-28.0). Hazards of suicide after self-harm were significantly higher for American Indians and Alaskan natives than non-Hispanic white patients (HR: 4.69, 95% CI: 2.41-9.13) and for self-harm patients who initially used violent methods (HR: 18.04, 95% CI: 9.92-32.80), especially firearms (HR: 35.73, 95% CI: 15.42-82.79), compared with nonviolent self-harm methods (1.00, reference). The hazards of repeat self-harm were higher for female subjects than male subjects (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.18-1.33); patients with personality disorders (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.42-1.69); and patients whose initial self-harm was treated in an inpatient setting (HR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.49-1.83) compared with an emergency department (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.55-0.69) or outpatient (1.00, reference) setting.

CONCLUSIONS

After nonfatal self-harm, adolescents and young adults were at markedly elevated risk of suicide. Among these high-risk patients, those who used violent self-harm methods, particularly firearms, were at especially high risk underscoring the importance of follow-up care to help ensure their safety.

The obesity epidemic and rising diabetes incidence in a low-income racially diverse southern US cohort

BACKGROUND

Obesity is known to be a major risk factor for diabetes, but the magnitude of risk and variation between blacks and whites are less well documented in populations heavily affected by obesity. Herein we assess rates and risks of incident diabetes in a diverse southern population where obesity is common.

METHODS

A total of 24,000 black and 14,064 white adults aged 40-79 in the Southern Community Cohort Study with no self-reported diabetes at study enrollment during 2002-2009 was followed for up to 10 (median 4.5) years. Incidence rates, odds ratios (OR) and accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CI) for medication-treated incident diabetes were determined according to body mass index (BMI) and other characteristics, including tobacco and alcohol consumption, healthy eating and physical activity indices, and socioeconomic status (SES).

RESULTS

Risk of incident diabetes rose monotonically with increasing BMI, but the trends differed between blacks and whites (pinteraction < .0001). Adjusted ORs (CIs) for diabetes among those with BMI≥40 vs 20-25 kg/m2 were 11.9 (8.4-16.8) for whites and 4.0 (3.3-4.8) for blacks. Diabetes incidence was more than twice as high among blacks than whites of normal BMI, but the racial difference became attenuated as BMI rose, with estimated 5-year probabilities of developing diabetes approaching 20% for both blacks and whites with BMI≥40 kg/m2. Diabetes risk was also associated with low SES, significantly (pinteraction≤.02) more so for whites, current cigarette smoking, and lower healthy eating and physical activity indices, although high BMI remained the predominant risk factor among both blacks and whites. From baseline prevalence and 20-year projections of the incidence trends, we estimate that the large majority of surviving cohort participants with BMI≥40 kg/m2 will be diagnosed with diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Even using conservative criteria to ascertain diabetes incidence (i.e., requiring diabetes medication use and ignoring undiagnosed cases), rates of obesity-associated diabetes were exceptionally high in this low-income adult population. The findings indicate that effective strategies to halt the rising prevalence of obesity are needed to avoid substantial increases in diabetes in coming years.

Outpatient Treatment of Deep Vein Thrombosis in the United States: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the uptake of outpatient DVT treatment in the United States and understand how comorbidities and socioeconomic conditions impact the decision to treat as an outpatient.

DESIGN/SETTING

The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke cohort study recruited 30,329 participants between 2003 and 2007. DVT events were ascertained through 2011.

MEASUREMENTS

Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the correlates of outpatient treatment of DVT accounting for age, sex, race, education, income, urban or rural residence, and region of residence.

RESULTS

Of 379 venous thromboembolism events, 141 participants had a DVT without diagnosed pulmonary embolism and that did not occur during hospitalization. Overall, 28% (39 of 141) of participants with DVT were treated as outpatients. In a multivariable model, the odds ratio for outpatient versus inpatient DVT treatment was 4.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-13.79) for urban versus rural dwellers, 3.29 (95% CI, 1.30-8.30) for white versus black patients, 2.41 (95% CI, 1.06-5.47) for women versus men, and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.19-3.02) for every 10 years younger in age. Living outside the southeastern United States and having higher education and income were not statistically significantly associated with outpatient treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite known safety and efficacy, only 28% of participants with DVT received outpatient treatment. This study highlights populations in which efforts could be made to reduce hospital admissions.

Evaluation of a methodology to validate National Death Index retrieval results among a cohort of U.S. service members

PURPOSE

Accurate knowledge of the vital status of individuals is critical to the validity of mortality research. National Death Index (NDI) and NDI-Plus are comprehensive epidemiological resources for mortality ascertainment and cause of death data that require additional user validation. Currently, there is a gap in methods to guide validation of NDI search results rendered for active duty service members. The purpose of this research was to adapt and evaluate the CDC National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) algorithm for mortality ascertainment in a large military cohort.

METHODS

We adapted and applied the NPCR algorithm to a cohort of 7088 service members on active duty at the time of death at some point between 2001 and 2009. We evaluated NDI validity and NDI-Plus diagnostic agreement against the Department of Defense's Armed Forces Medical Examiner System (AFMES).

RESULTS

The overall sensitivity of the NDI to AFMES records after the application of the NPCR algorithm was 97.1%. Diagnostic estimates of measurement agreement between the NDI-Plus and the AFMES cause of death groups were high.

CONCLUSIONS

The NDI and NDI-Plus can be successfully used with the NPCR algorithm to identify mortality and cause of death among active duty military cohort members who die in the United States.

Chaplaincy Visitation and Spiritual Care after Intracerebral Hemorrhage

To better understand factors influencing spiritual care during critical illness, we examined the use of spiritual care in patients hospitalized with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), a frequently disabling and fatal disease. Specifically, the study was designed to examine which demographic and clinical characteristics were associated with chaplain visits to critically ill patients. The charts of consecutive adults (>18) with spontaneous ICH presenting to a single academic medical center between January 2014 and September 2015 were reviewed. Chaplains visited 86 (32%) of the 266 patients. Family requests initiated the majority of visits (57%). Visits were disproportionately to Catholic patients and those with more severe injury. Even among Catholics, 28% of those who died had no chaplaincy visit. Standardized chaplaincy screening methods and note templates may help maximize access to spiritual care and delineate the religious and spiritual preferences of patients and families.

Short-term Suicide Risk After Psychiatric Hospital Discharge

IMPORTANCE

Although psychiatric inpatients are recognized to be at increased risk for suicide immediately after hospital discharge, little is known about the extent to which their short-term suicide risk varies across groups with major psychiatric disorders.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the risk for suicide during the 90 days after hospital discharge for adults with first-listed diagnoses of depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, substance use disorder, and other mental disorders in relation to inpatients with diagnoses of nonmental disorders and the general population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This national retrospective longitudinal cohort included inpatients aged 18 to 64 years in the Medicaid program who were discharged with a first-listed diagnosis of a mental disorder (depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, substance use disorder, and other mental disorder) and a 10% random sample of inpatients with diagnoses of nonmental disorders. The cohort included 770 643 adults in the mental disorder cohort, 1 090 551 adults in the nonmental disorder cohort, and 370 deaths from suicide from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2007. Data were analyzed from March 5, 2015, to June 6, 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Suicide rates per 100 000 person-years were determined for each study group during the 90 days after hospital discharge and the demographically matched US general population. Adjusted hazard ratios (ARHs) of short-term suicide after hospital discharge were also estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Information on suicide as a cause of death was obtained from the National Death Index.

RESULTS

In the overall population of 1 861 194 adults (27% men; 73% women; mean [SD] age, 35.4 [13.1] years), suicide rates for the cohorts with depressive disorder (235.1 per 100 000 person-years), bipolar disorder (216.0 per 100 000 person-years), schizophrenia (168.3 per 100 000 person-years), substance use disorder (116.5 per 100 000 person-years), and other mental disorders (160.4 per 100 000 person-years) were substantially higher than corresponding rates for the cohort with nonmental disorders (11.6 per 100 000 person-years) or the US general population (14.2 per 100 000 person-years). Among the cohort with mental disorders, AHRs of suicide were associated with inpatient diagnosis of depressive disorder (AHR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-2.8; reference cohort, substance use disorder), an outpatient diagnosis of schizophrenia (AHR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2), an outpatient diagnosis of bipolar disorder (AHR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1), and an absence of any outpatient health care in the 6 months preceding hospital admission (AHR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.5).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

After psychiatric hospital discharge, adults with complex psychopathologic disorders with prominent depressive features, especially patients who are not tied into a system of health care, appear to have a particularly high short-term risk for suicide.

Observed long-term mortality after 18,000 person-years among survivors in a large regional drowning registry

AIM

Long-term outcomes beyond one year after non-fatal drowning are uncharacterized. We estimated long-term mortality and identified prognostic factors in a large, population-based cohort.

METHODS

Population-based prospective cohort study (1974-1996) of Western Washington Drowning Registry (WWDR) subjects surviving the index drowning through hospital discharge. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality through 2012. We tabulated Utstein-style exposure variables, estimated Kaplan-Meier curves, and identified prognostic factors with Cox proportional hazard modeling. We also compared 5-, 10-, and 15-year mortality estimates of the primary cohort to age-specific mortality estimates from United States Life Tables.

RESULTS

Of 2824 WWDR cases, 776 subjects (5[IQR 2-17] years, 68% male) were included. Only 63 (8%) non-fatal drowning subjects died during 18,331 person-years of follow-up. Long-term mortality differed by Utstein variables (age, precipitating alcohol use, submersion interval, GCS, CPR, intubation, defibrillation, initial vital signs, neurologic status at hospital discharge) and inpatient markers of illness severity (mechanical ventilation, vasopressor use, seizure, pneumothorax). Survival differed by age (HR 1.04;95%CI 1.03-1.05), drowning-related cardiac arrest (HR 3.47;95%CI 1.97-6.13), and neurologic impairment at hospital discharge (HR 5.10;95% CI 2.70-9.62). In adjusted analysis, age (HR 1.05;95%CI 1.03-1.06) and severe neurologic impairment at discharge (HR 2.31;95%CI 1.01-5.28) were associated with long-term mortality. Subjects aged 5-15 years had higher mortality risks than those calculated from Life Tables.

CONCLUSION

Most drownings were fatal, but survivors of non-fatal drowning had low risk of subsequent long-term mortality similar to the general population that was independently associated with age and neurologic status at hospital discharge.

Rate of Perihematomal Edema Expansion Predicts Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVES

Intracerebral hemorrhage is a devastating disorder with no current treatment. Whether perihematomal edema is an independent predictor of neurologic outcome is controversial. We sought to determine whether perihematomal edema expansion rate predicts outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary medical center.

PATIENTS

One hundred thirty-nine consecutive supratentorial spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients 18 years or older admitted between 2000 and 2013.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Intracerebral hemorrhage, intraventricular hemorrhage, and perihematomal edema volumes were measured from CT scans obtained at presentation, 24-hours, and 72-hours postintracerebral hemorrhage. Perihematomal edema expansion rate was the difference between initial and follow-up perihematomal edema volumes divided by the time interval. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the relationship between 1) perihematomal edema expansion rate at 24 hours and 90-day mortality and 2) perihematomal edema expansion rate at 24 hours and 90-day modified Rankin Scale score. Perihematomal edema expansion rate between admission and 24-hours postintracerebral hemorrhage was a significant predictor of 90-day mortality (odds ratio, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.48-5.99; p = 0.002). This association persisted after adjusting for all components of the intracerebral hemorrhage score (odds ratio, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.05-4.64; p = 0.04). Similarly, higher 24-hour perihematomal edema expansion rate was associated with poorer modified Rankin Scale score in an ordinal shift analysis (odds ratio, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.37-4.21; p = 0.002). The association persisted after adjustment for all intracerebral hemorrhage score components (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.12-3.83; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Faster perihematomal edema expansion rate 24-hours postintracerebral hemorrhage is associated with worse outcome. Perihematomal edema may represent an attractive translational target for secondary injury after intracerebral hemorrhage.

Menthol and Nonmenthol Cigarette Smoking: All-Cause Deaths, Cardiovascular Disease Deaths, and Other Causes of Death Among Blacks and Whites

BACKGROUND

In contrast to whites, black smokers prefer menthol cigarettes over nonmenthol cigarettes by a large margin and tend to have higher mortality from several smoking-related diseases than whites, raising the possibility that menthol cigarettes contribute to racial disparities in risk. Evidence for differential associations between menthol and nonmenthol cigarettes indicates lower cancer risk for menthol smokers, but for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, evidence has been inconsistent.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios and accompanying 95% confidence intervals for all-cause and CVD mortality for menthol compared with nonmenthol cigarette smokers among 65 600 participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study, an ongoing community-based cohort with the largest number of menthol smokers being traced. Among the 27 619 current cigarette smokers, 4224 died during follow-up, with 1130 deaths attributed to CVD. Both all-cause (hazard ratio=0.93; 95% confidence interval=0.86-1.01; P=0.10) and CVD (hazard ratio=0.88; 95% confidence interval=0.76-1.03; P=0.10) mortality risks were similar in menthol compared with nonmenthol cigarette smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking regardless of cigarette type is hazardous to health, but these results do not indicate that menthol cigarettes are associated with greater CVD risks than nonmenthol cigarettes.

Urinary Metabolite Risk Biomarkers of Lung Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is a major health burden causing 160,000 and 1.6 million deaths annually in the United States and worldwide, respectively.

METHODS

While seeking to identify stable and reproducible biomarkers in noninvasively collected biofluids, we assessed whether previously identified metabolite urinary lung cancer biomarkers, creatine riboside (CR), N-acetylneuraminic acid (NANA), cortisol sulfate, and indeterminate metabolite 561+, were elevated in the urines of subjects prior to lung cancer diagnosis in a well-characterized prospective Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). Urine was examined from 178 patients and 351 nondiseased controls, confirming that one of four metabolites was associated with lung cancer risk in the overall case-control set, whereas two metabolites were associated with lung cancer risk in European-Americans.

RESULTS

OR of lung cancer associated with elevated CR levels, and adjusted for smoking and other potential confounders, was 2.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-3.4; P= 0.01]. In European-Americans, both CR and NANA were significantly associated with lung cancer risk (OR = 5.3; 95% CI, 1.6-17.6; P= 0.006 and OR=3.5; 95% CI, 1.5-8.4; P= 0.004, respectively). However, race itself did not significantly modify the associations. ROC analysis showed that adding CR and NANA to a model containing previously established lung cancer risk factors led to a significantly improved classifier (P= 0.01). Increasing urinary levels of CR and NANA displayed a positive association with increasing tumor size, strengthening a previously established link to altered tumor metabolism.

CONCLUSION AND IMPACT

These replicated results provide evidence that identified urinary metabolite biomarkers have a potential utility as noninvasive, clinical screening tools for early diagnosis of lung cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(6); 978-86. ©2016 AACR.

Rate of Contrast Extravasation on Computed Tomographic Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In primary intracerebral hemorrhage, the presence of contrast extravasation after computed tomographic angiography (CTA), termed the spot sign, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Because the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation, which may reflect the rate of bleeding, predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign.

METHODS

Consecutive intracerebral hemorrhage patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed postcontrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by 2 blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and intracerebral hemorrhage volumes were measured using semiautomated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regressions.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-two patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04 mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4 mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23 mL/min overall and 0.30 mL/min among expanders versus 0.07 mL/min in nonexpanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27 mL/min versus 0.04 mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.09 [95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.18], P=0.004), 90-day mortality (odds ratio, 1.15 [95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.27]; P=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.08]; P=0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute intracerebral hemorrhage.

Warfarin and statins are associated with hematoma volume in primary infratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Despite extensive studies of supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), limited data are available on determinants of hematoma volume in infratentorial ICH. We therefore aimed to identify predictors of infratentorial ICH volume and to evaluate whether location specificity exists when comparing cerebellar to brainstem ICH.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective analysis of 139 consecutive infratentorial ICH cases (95 cerebellar and 44 brainstem ICH) prospectively enrolled in a single-center study of ICH. ICH volume was measured on the CT scan obtained upon presentation to the Emergency Department using an established computer-assisted method. We used linear regression to identify determinants of log-transformed ICH volume and logistic regression to evaluate their role in surgical evacuation.

RESULTS

Median ICH volumes for all infratentorial, cerebellar, and brainstem ICH were nine [interquartile range (IQR), 3-23], ten (IQR, 3-25), and eight (IQR, 3-19) milliliters, respectively. Thirty-six patients were on warfarin treatment, 31 underwent surgical evacuation, and 65 died within 90 days. Warfarin was associated with an increase in ICH volume of 86 % [β = 0.86, standard error (SE) = 0.29, p = 0.003] and statin treatment with a decrease of 69 % (β = -69, SE = 0.26, p = 0.008). Among cerebellar ICH subjects, those on warfarin were five times more likely to undergo surgical evacuation (OR = 4.80, 95 % confidence interval 1.63-14.16, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin exposure increases ICH volume in infratentorial ICH. Further studies will be necessary to confirm the inverse relation observed between statins and ICH volume.

Pressor response to initial blood pressure monotherapy is associated with cardiovascular mortality

BACKGROUND

A paradoxical pressor systolic response to initial antihypertensive monotherapy has been observed in 8% of hypertensive patients. The long-term consequences of this finding are unknown.

METHODS

We included 945 hypertensive patients with baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140mm Hg. A 4-week washout period free of antihypertensive drugs was allowed for those already on treatment at entry. Mortality outcomes were ascertained from the National Death Index. Subjects were categorized by SBP response into depressor (≥10mm Hg fall), nonresponder, and pressor (≥10mm Hg rise) categories.

RESULTS

There were 268 fatalities. Of these, 100 (37%) were from cardiovascular disease (CVD), of which 70 (70%) were due to coronary artery disease (CAD). A pressor response was associated with higher SBP at 1 year compared with the nonresponder or depressor response (141 vs. 136 vs. 136mm Hg). CVD mortality was greater in pressors than depressors (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.4-6.4; P = 0.004], as was CAD (HR = 3.1; 95% CI = 1.4-6.8; P < 0.01) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; P = 0.02), after adjusting for 1-year SBP and other possible confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

We found the incidence of a pressor response to monotherapy at 3 months was significantly, specifically, and independently associated with higher subsequent cardiovascular mortality.

Quadrimodal distribution of death after trauma suggests that critical injury is a potentially terminal disease

BACKGROUND

Patterns of death after trauma are changing due to advances in critical care. We examined mortality in critically injured patients who survived index hospitalization.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of adults admitted to a Level-1 trauma center (1/1/2000-12/31/2010) with critical injury was conducted comparing patient characteristics, injury, and resource utilization between those who died during follow-up and survivors.

RESULTS

Of 1,695 critically injured patients, 1,135 (67.0%) were discharged alive. As of 5/1/2012, 977/1,135 (86.0%) remained alive; 75/158 (47.5%) patients who died during follow-up, died in the first year. Patients who died had longer hospital stays (24 vs. 17 days) and ICU LOS (17 vs. 8 days), were more likely to undergo tracheostomies (36% vs. 16%) and gastrostomies (39% vs. 16%) and to be discharged to rehabilitation (76% vs. 63%) or skilled nursing (13% vs. 5.8%) facilities than survivors. In multivariable models, male sex, older age, and longer ICU LOS predicted mortality. Patients with ICU LOS >16 days had 1.66 odds of 1-year mortality vs. those with shorter ICU stays.

CONCLUSIONS

ICU LOS during index hospitalization is associated with post-discharge mortality. Patients with prolonged ICU stays after surviving critical injury may benefit from detailed discussions about goals of care after discharge.

Inflammation markers and incident venous thromboembolism: the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort

BACKGROUND

Inflammation biomarkers are associated with the venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk factors obesity and age; however, the relationships of inflammation with VTE risk remain controversial.

OBJECTIVES

To examine associations of four inflammation biomarkers, i.e. C-reactive protein (CRP), serum albumin, white blood cell (WBC) count, and platelet count (PLTC), with incident VTE, and to determine whether they mediate the association of age or obesity with VTE.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Hazards models adjusted for VTE risk factors were used to calculate the prospective association of each biomarker with incident VTE in 30,239 participants of the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study. Mediation of the associations of obesity and age with VTE were examined by bootstrapping. Over a period of 4.6 years, there were 268 incident VTE events. After adjustment for VTE risk factors, the hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.25 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.43) per standard deviation (SD) higher log-CRP and 1.25 (95% CI 1.06-1.48) per SD lower albumin; there were no associations for WBC count or PLTC. The association of body mass index (BMI), but not age, with VTE was partially mediated by CRP and albumin. In risk factor-adjusted models, the percentage attenuations of the BMI HR for VTE after introduction of CRP or albumin into the models were 15.4% (95% CI 7.7-33.3%) and 41.0% (95% CI 12.8-79.5%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Higher CRP levels and lower serum albumin levels were associated with increased VTE risk, and statistically mediated part of the association of BMI with VTE. These data suggest that inflammation may be a potential mechanism underlying the relationship between obesity and VTE risk.

Mesothelioma in occupational cohort studies: methodological considerations

OBJECTIVE

This article describes effective strategies for the identification and valid assessment of mortality due to mesothelioma.

METHODS

We manually reviewed all death certificates for mention of mesothelioma for all International Classification of Diseases (ICD) revisions. We tested the accuracy of our ascertainment method by comparing New Jersey death certificate data from our health status registry with histologically confirmed cases from the New Jersey State Cancer Registry.

RESULTS

We found reasonably good agreement between death certificate diagnoses and histologically confirmed cases, κ coefficient 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.76 to 0.95). Most mesothelioma deaths in our test and North American cohorts were coded to unspecified anatomical sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Limiting ascertainment to pleura and peritoneum ICD codes underestimates mesothelioma deaths. Reviewing all ICD codes that could contain mesothelioma is the only effective method for complete capture of mesothelioma diagnoses.

CT angiography spot sign in intracerebral hemorrhage predicts active bleeding during surgery

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the CT angiography (CTA) spot sign marks bleeding complications during and after surgery for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

In a 2-center study of consecutive spontaneous ICH patients who underwent CTA followed by surgical hematoma evacuation, 2 experienced readers (blinded to clinical and surgical data) reviewed CTAs for spot sign presence. Blinded raters assessed active intraoperative and postoperative bleeding. The association between spot sign and active intraoperative bleeding, postoperative rebleeding, and residual ICH volumes was evaluated using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 95 patients met inclusion criteria: 44 lobar, 17 deep, 33 cerebellar, and 1 brainstem ICH; ≥1 spot sign was identified in 32 patients (34%). The spot sign was the only independent marker of active bleeding during surgery (odds ratio [OR] 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-9.0). Spot sign (OR 4.1; 95% CI 1.1-17), female sex (OR 6.9; 95% CI 1.7-37), and antiplatelet use (OR 4.6; 95% CI 1.2-21) were predictive of postoperative rebleeding. Larger residual hematomas and postoperative rebleeding were associated with higher discharge case fatality (OR 3.4; 95% CI 1.1-11) and a trend toward increased case fatality at 3 months (OR 2.9; 95% CI 0.9-8.8).

CONCLUSIONS

The CTA spot sign is associated with more intraoperative bleeding, more postoperative rebleeding, and larger residual ICH volumes in patients undergoing hematoma evacuation for spontaneous ICH. The spot sign may therefore be useful to select patients for future surgical trials.

Statin therapy after infrainguinal bypass surgery for critical limb ischemia is associated with improved 5-year survival

OBJECTIVE

Although statin therapy has been linked to fewer short-term complications after infrainguinal bypass, its effect on long-term survival remains unclear. We therefore examined associations between statin use and long-term mortality, graft occlusion, and amputation after infrainguinal bypass.

METHODS

We used the Vascular Study Group of New England registry to study 2067 patients (71% male; mean age, 67 ± 11 years; 67% with critical limb ischemia [CLI]) who underwent infrainguinal bypass from 2003 to 2011. Of these, 1537 (74%) were on statins perioperatively and at 1-year follow-up, and 530 received no statin. We examined crude, adjusted, and propensity-matched rates of 5-year surviva1, 1-year amputation, graft occlusion, and perioperative myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Patients taking statins at the time of surgery and at the 1-year follow-up were more likely to have coronary disease (38% vs 22%; P < .001), diabetes (51% vs 36%; P < .001), hypertension (89% vs 77%; P < .001), and prior revascularization procedures (50% vs 38%; P < .001). Despite higher comorbidity burdens, long-term survival was better for patients taking statins in crude (risk ratio [RR], 0.7; P < .001), adjusted (hazard ratio, 0.7; P = .001), and propensity-matched analyses (hazard ratio, 0.7; P = .03). In subgroup analysis, a survival advantage was evident in patients on statins with CLI (5-year survival rate, 63% vs 54%; log-rank, P = .01) but not claudication (5-year survival rate, 84% vs 80%; log-rank, P = .59). Statin therapy was not associated with 1-year rates of major amputation (12% vs 11%; P = .84) or graft occlusion (20% vs 18%; P = .58) in CLI patients. Perioperative myocardial infarction occurred more frequently in patients on a statin in crude analysis (RR, 2.2; P = .01) but not in the matched cohort (RR, 1.9; P = .17).

CONCLUSIONS

Statin therapy is associated with a 5-year survival benefit after infrainguinal bypass in patients with CLI. However, 1-year limb-related outcomes were not influenced by statin use in our large observational cohort of patients undergoing revascularization in New England.

Racial and regional differences in venous thromboembolism in the United States in 3 cohorts

BACKGROUND

Blacks are thought to have a higher risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) than whites. However, prior studies are limited to administrative databases that lack specific information on VTE risk factors or have limited geographic scope.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We ascertained VTE from 3 prospective studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), and the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study (REGARDS). We tested the association of race with VTE using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for VTE risk factors. Over 438 090 person-years, 916 incident VTE events (302 in blacks) occurred in 51 149 individuals (17 318 blacks) who were followed up. In risk factor-adjusted models, blacks had a higher rate of VTE than whites in the CHS (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.73) but not ARIC (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.54). In REGARDS, there was a significant region-by-race interaction (P=0.01): Blacks in the Southeast had a significantly higher rate of VTE than blacks in the rest of the United States (hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.48) that was not seen in whites (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The association of race with VTE differed in each cohort, which may reflect the different time periods of the studies or different regional rates of VTE. Further studies of environmental and genetic risk factors for VTE are needed to determine which underlie racial and perhaps regional differences in VTE.

Predicting hematoma expansion after primary intracerebral hemorrhage

IMPORTANCE

Many clinical trials focus on restricting hematoma expansion following acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), but selecting those patients at highest risk of hematoma expansion is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prediction score for hematoma expansion in patients with primary ICH.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cohort study at 2 urban academic medical centers among patients having primary ICH with available baseline and follow-up computed tomography for volumetric analysis (817 patients in the development cohort and 195 patients in the independent validation cohort).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Hematoma expansion was assessed using semiautomated software and was defined as more than 6 mL or 33% growth. Covariates were tested for association with hematoma expansion using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. A 9-point prediction score was derived based on the regression estimates and was subsequently tested in the independent validation cohort.

RESULTS

Hematoma expansion occurred in 156 patients (19.1%). In multivariable analysis, predictors of expansion were as follows: warfarin sodium use, the computed tomography angiography spot sign, and shorter time to computed tomography (≤ 6 vs >6 hours) (P < .001 for all), as well as baseline ICH volume (<30 [reference], 30-60 [P = .03], and >60 [P = .005] mL). The incidence of hematoma expansion steadily increased with higher scores. In the independent validation cohort (n = 195), our prediction score performed well and showed strong association with hematoma expansion (odds ratio, 4.59; P < .001 for a high vs low score). The C statistics for the score were 0.72 for the development cohort and 0.77 for the independent validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

A 9-point prediction score for hematoma expansion was developed and independently validated. The results open a path for individualized treatment and trial design in ICH aimed at patients at highest risk of hematoma expansion with maximum potential for therapeutic benefit.

Predictors of hematoma volume in deep and lobar supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage

IMPORTANCE

Hematoma volume is the strongest predictor of outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Despite known differences in the underlying biology between deep and lobar ICHs, limited data are available on location specificity of factors reported to affect hematoma volume.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether determinants of ICH volume differ by topography, we sought to estimate location-specific effects for potential predictors of this radiological outcome.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Academic medical center.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 744 supratentorial primary ICH patients (388 deep and 356 lobar) aged older than 18 years admitted between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2010.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Intracerebral hemorrhage volume measured from the computed tomography scan obtained on presentation to the emergency department. Linear regression analysis, stratified by ICH location, was implemented to identify determinants of log-transformed ICH volume.

RESULTS

Median ICH volume was larger in lobar hemorrhages (39 mL; interquartile range, 16-75 mL) than in deep hemorrhages (13 mL; interquartile range, 5-40 mL; P < .001). In multivariable linear regression, independent predictors of deep ICH volume were intensity of anticoagulation (β = 0.32; standard error [SE] = 0.08; P < .001; test for trend across 4 categories of the international normalized ratio), history of coronary artery disease (β = 0.33; SE = 0.17; P = .05), male sex (β = 0.28; SE = 0.14; P = .05), and age (β = -0.02; SE = 0.01; P = .001). Independent predictors of lobar ICH volume were intensity of anticoagulation (β = 0.14; SE = 0.06; P = .02) and antiplatelet treatment (β = 0.27; SE = 0.13; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Predictors of hematoma volume only partially overlap between deep and lobar ICHs. These findings suggest that the mechanisms that determine the extent of bleeding differ for deep and lobar ICHs. Further studies are needed to characterize the specific biological pathways that underlie the observed associations.

Heritability estimates identify a substantial genetic contribution to risk and outcome of intracerebral hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Previous studies suggest that genetic variation plays a substantial role in occurrence and evolution of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Genetic contribution to disease can be determined by calculating heritability using family-based data, but such an approach is impractical for ICH because of lack of large pedigree-based studies. However, a novel analytic tool based on genome-wide data allows heritability estimation from unrelated subjects. We sought to apply this method to provide heritability estimates for ICH risk, severity, and outcome.

METHODS

We analyzed genome-wide genotype data for 791 ICH cases and 876 controls, and determined heritability as the proportion of variation in phenotype attributable to captured genetic variants. Contribution to heritability was separately estimated for the APOE (encoding apolipoprotein E) gene, an established genetic risk factor, and for the rest of the genome. Analyzed phenotypes included ICH risk, admission hematoma volume, and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

ICH risk heritability was estimated at 29% (SE, 11%) for non-APOE loci and at 15% (SE, 10%) for APOE. Heritability for 90-day ICH mortality was 41% for non-APOE loci and 10% (SE, 9%) for APOE. Genetic influence on hematoma volume was also substantial: admission volume heritability was estimated at 60% (SE, 70%) for non-APOEloci and at 12% (SE, 4%) for APOE.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variation plays a substantial role in ICH risk, outcome, and hematoma volume. Previously reported risk variants account for only a portion of inherited genetic influence on ICH pathophysiology, pointing to additional loci yet to be identified.

Health status in young adults two decades after pediatric liver transplantation

We conducted a cross-sectional study of patients who underwent pediatric liver transplant (LT) between 1988 and 1992 to evaluate long-term health status. Survivors completed socio-demographic, medical and Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) surveys by mail including the SF-36v2, PedsQL™4.0 Generic Core Scale, PedsQL™ Cognitive Functioning Scale and PedsQL™3.0 Transplant Module. SF-36 scores were converted to SF6D-based utilities and risk factors for lower outcomes were assessed. Eighty-five of 171 patients had survived. Fifty-six were contacted with a response rate of 66%. Median age at LT was 0.86 years (IQR 0.58-3.0) and 64.3% had biliary atresia. Mean age at survey was 23.0 ± 4.4 years: 62% attended college, 68% lived with parents and 80% of those over 23 were employed. Patient health utilities were lower than norms (0.75 ± 0.12 vs. 0.82 ± 0.18, p < 0.01) and correlated with unemployment (p < 0.042), hospitalizations (p < 0.005) and lower education level (p < 0.016). Lower PedsQL™3.0 Transplant Module and PedsQL™ 4.0 Generic Core Scale scores correlated with unemployment (p = 0.006, p = 0.009) and hospitalizations (p = 0.006, p = 0.02). Pediatric transplant recipients who survive to adulthood have lower physical HRQOL, measurable transplant-related disability and lower health utility. Transplantation is life saving; however, physical and psychological sequelae continue to affect health status up to two decades later.

Enduring direct association of baseline plasma renin activity with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in hypertensive patients

BACKGROUND

Plasma renin activity (PRA) has been associated with cardiovascular disease mortality (CVD) events among hypertensive patients. We now report a long-term follow-up to assess the enduring association of PRA to CVD and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Participants (3,791) in a systematic hypertension treatment study had entry systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mm Hg and mean age 52. CVD and all-cause mortality was ascertained for mean of 16 years. Pretreatment PRA was analyzed as a continuous variable, and by tertiles. The 10-year Framingham score was similarly examined. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from multivariate Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

There were 804 deaths, and 360 (45%) were CVD. PRA was associated with all-cause mortality and CVD, but not cancer or non-CVD. Although T3 had lower mean baseline and follow-up systolic BP than T1, (146 vs. 152 mm Hg (P < 0.001) and 135 vs. 139 mm Hg (P < 0.001), respectively), T3 had 37% higher all-cause mortality (HR: 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.63, P < 0.001) and 70% higher CVD mortality (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.29-2.23, P < 0.001) after adjustment. The difference between T3 and T1 in mortality from coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction was more pronounced than for all CVD. PRA also significantly improved CVD risk estimation provided by Framingham.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings extend and reinforce previous evidence that pretreatment PRA has a significant, independent, specific, and direct long-term association with CVD mortality. Moreover, PRA adds significantly to risk identified by the Framingham score.