Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer

Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.

Knowledge on Human Papillomavirus Infections, Cancer Biology, Immune Interactions, Vaccination Coverage and Common Treatments: A Comprehensive Review

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a circular, double-stranded DNA virus and recognized as the most prevalent sexually transmitted infectious agent worldwide. The HPV life cycle encompasses three primary stages. First, the virus infiltrates the basal cells of the stratified epidermis. Second, there is a low-level expression of viral genes and preservation of the viral genome in the basal layer. Lastly, productive replication of HPV occurs in differentiated cells. An effective immune response, involving various immune cells, including innate immunity, keratinocytes, dendritic cells, and natural killer T cells, is instrumental in clearing HPV infection and thwarting the development of HPV-associated tumors. Vaccines have demonstrated their efficacy in preventing genital warts, high-grade precancerous lesions, and cancers in females. In males, the vaccines can also aid in preventing genital warts, anal precancerous lesions, and cancer. This comprehensive review aims to provide a thorough and detailed exploration of HPV infections, delving into its genetic characteristics, life cycle, pathogenesis, and the role of high-risk and low-risk HPV strains. In addition, this review seeks to elucidate the intricate immune interactions that govern HPV infections, spanning from innate immunity to adaptive immune responses, as well as examining the evasion mechanisms used by the virus. Furthermore, the article discusses the current landscape of HPV vaccines and common treatments, contributing to a holistic understanding of HPV and its associated diseases.

Vaccination and screening strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Norway: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Experts have proposed an 'EVEN FASTER' concept targeting age-groups maintaining circulation of human papillomavirus (HPV). We explored effects of the vaccination component of these proposals compared with cervical cancer (CC) screening-based interventions on age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and CC elimination (<4 cases/100,000) timing in Norway.

METHODS

We used a model-based approach to evaluate HPV vaccination and CC screening scenarios compared with a status-quo scenario reflecting previous vaccination and screening. For cohorts ages 25-30 years, we examined 6 vaccination scenarios that incrementally increased vaccination coverage from current cohort-specific rates. Each vaccination scenario was coupled with three screening strategies that varied screening frequency. Additionally, we included 4 scenarios that alternatively increased screening adherence. Population- and cohort-level outcomes included ASR, lifetime risk of CC, and colposcopy referrals.

RESULTS

Several vaccination strategies coupled with de-intensified screening frequencies lowered ASR, but did not accelerate CC elimination. Alternative strategies that increased screening adherence could both accelerate elimination and improve ASR.

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccination component of an 'EVEN FASTER' campaign is unlikely to accelerate CC elimination in Norway but may reduce population-level ASR. Alternatively, targeting under- and never-screeners may both eliminate CC faster and lead to greater health benefits compared with vaccination-based interventions we considered.

Exploration of individual socioeconomic and health-related characteristics associated with human papillomavirus vaccination initiation and vaccination series completion among adult females: A comprehensive systematic evidence review with meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates among females are lower than the World Health Organization target and vaccination rates specifically among adult females are even much lower.

METHODS

We systematically evaluated individual socioeconomic and health-related characteristics associated with HPV vaccination initiation and vaccination series completion among adult females (PROSPERO: CRD42023445721). We performed a literature search on December 14, 2022, and supplemented the search on August 1, 2023. We pooled appropriate multivariable-adjusted results using an inverse variance random-effects model and expressed the results as odds ratios with associated 95 % confidence intervals. A point pooled significantly increased/decreased odds of 30-69 % was regarded to be strongly associated, and ≥ 70 % was very strongly associated.

RESULTS

We included 63 cross-sectional studies. There were strongly increased odds of vaccination initiation among White women compared with Black or Asian women, and those with higher education, health insurance, a history of sexually transmitted infection (STI), receipt of influenza vaccination in the preceding year, not married/cohabiting, not smoking, using contraception, and having visited a healthcare provider in the preceding year. We observed very strongly increased odds of vaccination initiation among those younger and having been born in the country of study. Similarly, there were strongly increased odds of completing the vaccination series for the same variables as initiating vaccination, except for higher education, prior STI, smoking and contraception use. Additional variables associated with strongly increased odds of vaccination series completion not seen in initiation were higher annual household income, being lesbian/bisexual, and having a primary care physician. We observed very strongly increased odds of vaccination series completion similar to vaccination initiation but including for White compared with Black women, higher education, and prior cervical cancer screening.

CONCLUSIONS

These individual characteristics may be the key to identifying women at increased risk of not being vaccinated against HPV and could inform targeted messaging to drive HPV vaccination.

The interplay between HPV, other Sexually Transmissible Infections and genital microbiome on cervical microenvironment (MicroCervixHPV study)

Background

The importance of Cervicovaginal Microbiota in protecting against infections (such as HPV) is already well established, namely through Lactobacillus spp., as well as the mechanism through which HPV leads to Cervical Neoplasia. However, it is not possible to classify HPV as a complete carcinogen. Thus, the importance of exploring Cervicovaginal dysbiosis with the intention of deciphering this interaction with HPV, takes on greater relevance. The main objectives of this study were: 1) Comparison of the MCV composition of women with or without HPV and women with ASCUS or LSIL; 2) Characterization of cytokines present in the vaginal microenvironment; 3) Evaluation of the blood count ratios as prognostic systemic inflammatory biomarkers; 4) Correlation between MCV, HPV serotypes and cytokines.

Methods

This was a retrospective, observational, multicenter, cross-sectional study. CVM analysis was performed by isolation RNA and sequencing on a NGS platform. Cytokine concentrations of CVM were obtained through Multiplex platform. Statistical analysis was performed in SPSS v 26.0. An α of 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Highlighting the core of the study, CVM types of CST I and CST IV were found to influence the emergence of cervical lesions. Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio was found to impact the prognosis of ASCUS. Within CVM, Lactobacillus prevent the growth of other CST IV species, while the latter express symbiotic relationships with each other and show affinity for specific HPV serotypes. At last, RANTES chemokine is significantly elevated in cervicovaginal infections.

Conclusion

The importance of using vaginal cytokine profiles and CVM is highlighted in the hypothesis of prevention of Cervical Neoplasia development, as well as in its use as a prognostic biomarker. Taken together, these insights are one step closer to personalized medicine.

Human Papillomavirus Genotype Richness and the Biodiversity of Squamous and Glandular Cervical Dysplasias: A Cross-Sectional Study

The impact of multiple infections on the risk of cervical lesions is a subject of ongoing debate. This study aims to explore whether the richness of HPV genotype infections and the biodiversity of squamous and glandular cervical dysplasias could influence the progression of precancerous lesions. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis involving 469 women who attended the Colposcopy Unit at the European Institute of Oncology in Milan, Italy, from December 2006 to December 2014. HPV type richness was measured as the number of different genotypes per patient. We calculated the associations between richness and age, as well as histologic grade, along with Simpson's biodiversity index for cervical dysplasias. We observed significant inverse relationships between the richness of high-risk (HR) genotypes and both age (p = 0.007) and histologic grade (p < 0.001). Furthermore, as the histologic grade increased, the mean biodiversity index of cervical dysplasias decreased, with exceptions noted in cases of normal histology and adenocarcinoma in situ. Different histologic grades formed five clusters with distinct mean ages and mean biodiversity indices. These findings suggest that HPV genotype richness and the biodiversity of cervical dysplasias may play a crucial role in predicting the risk of high-grade cervical lesions, enabling personalized management of precancers.

Clinical impact of age‑specific distribution of combination patterns of cytology and high‑risk HPV status on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more

To the best of our knowledge, the present study is the first to elucidate the significance of cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) status in different age groups for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2, CIN3 and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). There were 12 combinations based on cytology and hrHPV status [cytology: Atypical squamous cells (ASC) of undetermined significance, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, ASC not excluding high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and HSIL; hrHPV status: HPV16/18-positive (16/18+), hrHPV positive for subtypes other than 16/18 (others+) and hrHPV-negative (hrHPV-)]. All patients were categorized into four groups based on age (18-29, 30-39, 40-49 and ≥50 years). For patients with CIN2, CIN3 and SCC (CIN2+) (n=107), the distribution of cytology and hrHPV was investigated in each age group. In addition, for all patients (n=446), the occurrence of CIN2+ in each of the 12 combinations was investigated in each age group. In the 18-29-year age group, the most common combination was HSIL and 16/18+, followed by HSIL and others+, which accounted for 73% of CIN2+ cases. The occurrence of HSIL and 16/18+ decreased with increasing age, and no cases occurred in the 50-year age group. In the 18-29-year age group, all patients with HSIL and 16/18+ were diagnosed with CIN2+. CIN2+ was predominantly detected in patients with HSIL in the 18-29-year age group, as well as hrHPV- and others+. This definite distinction was not observed in any other age group. For CIN2+, the distribution patterns of cytology and hrHPV status combinations varied significantly among different age groups. Accordingly, the clinical impact of the combination of cytological findings and hrHPV status can vary among age groups.

Medical students' knowledge of HPV, HPV vaccine, and HPV-associated head and neck cancer

On the basis of their training, medical students are considered "the best case scenario" among university students in knowledge of the human papillomavirus (HPV). We evaluated differences in knowledge of HPV, HPV vaccine, and head and neck cancer (HNC) among medical students. A previously validated questionnaire was completed by 247 medical students at a Midwestern university. Outcomes of interest were knowledge score for HPV and HPV vaccine, and HNC, derived from combining questionnaire items to form HPV knowledge and HNC scores, and analyzed using multivariate linear regression. Mean scores for HPV knowledge were 19.4 out of 26, and 7.2 out of 12 for HNC knowledge. In the final multivariate linear regression model, sex, race, and year of study were independently associated with HPV and HPV vaccine knowledge. Males had significantly lower HPV vaccine knowledge than females (β = -1.53; 95% CI: -2.53, -0.52), as did nonwhite students (β = -1.05; 95% CI: -2.07, -0.03). There was a gradient in HPV vaccine knowledge based on the year of study, highest among fourth year students (β = 6.75; 95% CI: 5.17, 8.33). Results were similar for factors associated with HNC knowledge, except for sex. HNC knowledge similarly increased based on year of study, highest for fourth year students (β = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.72, 3.29). Among medical students, gaps remain in knowledge of HPV, HPV vaccine, and HPV-linked HNC. Male medical students have significantly lower knowledge of HPV. This highlights the need to increase medical student knowledge of HPV and HPV-linked HNC.

Vaginal microbiome and cervical cancer

The female reproductive tract, similar to other mucosal sites, harbors a specific microbiome commonly dominated by Lactobacillus species (spp.), which has an essential role in maintaining health and homeostasis. Increasing evidence shows that genital tract dysbiosis and/or specific bacteria and cytokines might have an active role in the development and/or progression of HPV infection and cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) and as a result cervical cancer. Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies reported that Lactobacillus spp. depletion increases with severity of CIN and that this may negatively affect disease regression rates. It is plausible that Lactobacillus deplete microbiome composition may lead to a pro-inflammatory environment that can increase malignant cell proliferation and HPV E6 and E7 oncogene expression. Future longitudinal cohorts and mechanistic experiments on HPV transfected cells models will further permit exploration of the impact of Lactobacillus spp. on HPV infection.

The Quest to Eradicate HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Carcinoma: An Opportunity Not to Miss

Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) accounts for more than half of all head and neck cancers. Since the 1970s, OPSCC has shifted from an environmentally triggered to virally mediated disease due to a sharp rise in human papillomavirus (HPV)-related squamous cell carcinoma. Although a highly effective prophylactic vaccine is available, its current implementation is far below national targets, and OPSCC incidence is predicted to further increase by 2045. However, we believe that with prompt action now, we can not only defy these predictions but also effectively eradicate HPV-related OPSCC in these next 20 years. We herein provide an overview of the necessary elements to eliminate this disease: improved primary vaccine uptake, a 1-time universal vaccination effort, and implementation of novel therapeutics that have potential to cure existing disease.

Variation in Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Effectiveness in the US by Age at Vaccination

This survey study assesses the status and timing of HPV vaccination as self-reported by female participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2011 to 2018.

The Prevalence, Genotype Distribution and Risk Factors of Human Papillomavirus in Tunisia: A National-Based Study

There are limited national population-based studies on HPV genotypes distribution in Tunisia, thus making difficult an assessment of the burden of vaccine-preventable cervical cancer. In this context, we conducted a national survey to determine the HPV prevalence and genotypes distribution and the risk factors for HPV infections in Tunisian women. This is a cross-sectional study performed between December 2012 and December 2014. A liquid-based Pap smear sample was obtained from all women and samples' DNAs were extracted. Only women with betaglobin-positive PCR were further analysed for HPV detection and typing by a nested-PCR of the L1 region followed by next-generation sequencing. A multiple logistic regression model was used for the analysis of associations between the variables. A total of 1517 women were enrolled in this study, and 1229 out of the 1517 cervical samples were positive for the betaglobin control PCR and tested for HPV. Overall HPV infection prevalence was measured to be 7.8% (96/1229), with significant differences between the grand regions, ranging from 2% in the North to 13.1% in Grand Tunis. High-risk HPV genotypes accounted for 5% of the infections. The most prevalent genotypes were HPV 31 (1%), 16 (0.9%), 59 (0.7%). HPV18 was detected only in four cases of the study population. Potential risk factors were living in Grand Tunis region (OR: 7.94 [2.74-22.99]), married status (OR: 2.74 [1.23-6.13]), smoking habit (OR: 2.73 [1.35-5.51]), occupation (OR: 1.81 [1.09-3.01]) and women with multiple sexual partners (OR: 1.91 [1.07-3.39]). These findings underscore the need to evaluate the cost effectiveness of HPV vaccine implementation, contribute to the evidence on the burden of HPV infections, the critical role of sexual behaviour and socioeconomic status, and call for increased support to the preventive program of cervical cancer in Tunisia.

Analysis of cervical HPV infections among unvaccinated young adult women to inform vaccine strategies in this age group: the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines protect against incident HPV infections, which cause cervical cancer.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the prevalence and incidence of HPV infections in young adult women to understand the impact of an HPV vaccination programme in this population.

METHODS

We collected cervical specimens from 6322 unvaccinated women, aged 18-37 years, who participated in the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial and its long-term follow-up. Women were followed for (median) 4.8 years and had (median) 4.0 study visits. Cervical specimens were tested for the presence/absence of 25 HPV genotypes. For each age band, we estimated the percentage of women with 1+ prevalent or 1+ incident HPV infections using generalised estimating equations. We also estimated the prevalence and incidence of HPV as a function of time since first sexual intercourse (FSI).

RESULTS

The model estimated HPV incident infections peaked at 28.0% (95% CI 25.3% to 30.9%) at age 20 years then steadily declined to 11.8% (95% CI 7.6% to 17.8%) at age 37 years. Incident oncogenic HPV infections (HPV16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59) peaked and then declined from 20.3% (95% CI 17.9% to 22.9%) to 7.7% (95% CI 4.4% to 13.1%); HPV16/18 declined from 6.4% (95% CI 5.1% to 8.1%) to 1.1% (95% CI 0.33% to 3.6%) and HPV31/33/45/52/58 declined from 11.0% (95% CI 9.3% to 13.1%) to 4.5% (95% CI 2.2% to 8.9%) over the same ages. The percentage of women with 1+ incident HPV of any, oncogenic, non-oncogenic and vaccine-preventable (HPV16/18, HPV31/33/45, HPV31/33/45/52/58, and HPV6/11) types peaked <1 year after FSI and steadily declined with increasing time since FSI (p for trends <0.001). We observed similar patterns for model estimated HPV prevalences.

CONCLUSION

Young adult women may benefit from HPV vaccination if newly acquired vaccine-preventable oncogenic infections lead to cervical precancer and cancer. HPV vaccination targeting this population may provide additional opportunities for primary prevention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00128661.

Data-Related Challenges in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Vaccines

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are often prepared to quantify the expected economic value of potential vaccination strategies. Estimated outcomes and costs of vaccination strategies depend on numerous data inputs or assumptions, including estimates of vaccine efficacy and disease incidence in the absence of vaccination. Limitations in epidemiologic data can meaningfully affect both CEA estimates and the interpretation of those results by groups involved in vaccination policy decisions. Developers of CEAs should be transparent with regard to the ambiguity and uncertainty associated with epidemiologic information that is incorporated into their models. We describe selected data-related challenges to conducting CEAs for vaccination strategies, including generalizability of estimates of vaccine effectiveness, duration and functional form of vaccine protection that can change over time, indirect (herd) protection, and serotype replacement. We illustrate how CEA estimates can be sensitive to variations in specific epidemiologic assumptions, with examples from CEAs conducted for the USA that assessed vaccinations against human papillomavirus and pneumococcal disease. These challenges are certainly not limited to these two case studies and may be relevant to other vaccines.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination intent and its associated factors: a study of ethnically diverse married women aged 27 to 45 in Malaysia, a Southeast Asian country

Introduction

This study aimed to investigate HPV vaccination intention among adult married women aged 27 to 45 years and its associated factors, and their spouse/partner’s influence on HPV vaccination decision-making.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study. Study participants were recruited through simple random sampling of patients attending obstetrics and gynecology outpatient clinics in a university teaching hospital. Participants were selected based on a computer-generated list of a random list of patients attending the clinic.

Results

A total of 794 complete responses were received (response rate 88.2%). The mean age of the respondents was 32.2 years with a standard deviation (SD) of ±3.9 years.The vast majority (85.3%) would communicate with their spouse/partner with regard to HPV vaccination decision-making. Nearly 30% (over half were of the Malay ethnic group) perceived their spouse/partner would not consent to their HPV vaccination. Over half (54.9%) reported joint decision-making, and 9.1% (the majority of whom were Malay) reported that HPV vaccination was dependent on their spouse/partner’s decision. Intention to vaccinate against HPV was high (74.5%). Factors influencing HPV vaccination intention were spouse/partner’s consent to HPV vaccination (odds ratio [OR] = 4.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.08–6.62), being a postgraduate student (OR = 4.55; 95% CI, 2.13–9.72 vs. unemployed/housewife), average household income MYR2000–4000 (OR = 2.09; 95%CI, 1.16–3.78 vs. below MYR2000), and an HPV-related knowledge score of 9–20 (OR = 1.60; 95% CI, 1.10–2.32 vs. score 0–8).

Conclusion

Findings highlight the importance of culture-centered interventions to enhance male partner’s awareness and support for the HPV vaccination of married women.

Anal and cervical human papillomavirus genotypes in women co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus: A systematic review

Human papillomavirus (HPV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections are sexually transmitted. There are several HPV genotypes and clinical manifestations. Determining which genotypes circulate worldwide and/or in specific geographic areas can help with prevention programs and vaccine distribution. This systematic review aimed to investigate the most frequent anal and cervical HPV genotypes in women co-infected with HPV/HIV. The PubMed, Scientific Electronic Library Online, and Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences databases were used to search for articles published between January 2015 and August 2021, and the included articles followed the defined selection criteria. Based on the 51 articles included, HPV16 was the most prevalent (41%) genotype, followed by HPV52 (17%) and HPV58 (14%). Based on the comparative analyses of the HIV-negative women with HPV and the HPV/HIV co-infected groups, HPV16 was frequent in both groups; HPV58, HPV31, and HPV52 were more frequent in the co-infected group; and HPV18 was more common in HIV-negative women with HPV. HPV/HIV co-infected women most frequently presented the HPV genotypes 16, 58, and 52, whereas HIV-negative women with HPV had a higher frequency of HPV16, HPV18, and HPV52 genotypes. The results indicate the importance of genotype surveillance as a strategy to improve preventive measures against HPV infection and its complications. International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registration number: CRD42020220121.

Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising rapidly among men in the United States of America (USA). We aimed to project the impact of maintaining the current HPV vaccination uptake and achieving 80% national (Healthy People) goal on OPC incidence and burden.

METHODS

We developed an open-cohort micro-simulation model of OPC natural history among contemporary and future birth cohorts of men, accounting for sexual behaviors, population growth, aging, and herd immunity. We used data from nationally representative databases, cancer registries from all 50 states, large clinical trials, and literature. We evaluated the status quo scenario (the current HPV vaccination uptake remained stable) and alternative scenarios of improvements in uptake rates in adolescents (aged 9-17 years) and young adults (aged 18-26 years) by 2025 to achieve and maintain the 80% goal. The primary outcome was to project OPC incidence and burden from 2009 to 2100. We also assessed the impact of disruption in HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

OPC incidence is projected to rise until the mid-2030s, reaching the age-standardized incidence rate of 9·8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·5-10·1) per 100 000 men, with the peak annual burden of 23 850 (UI, 23 200-24 500) cases. Under the status quo scenario, HPV vaccination could prevent 124 000 (UI, 117 000-131 000) by 2060, 400 000 (UI, 384 000-416 000) by 2080, and 792 000 (UI, 763 000-821 000) by 2100 OPC cases among men. Achievement and maintenance of 80% coverage among adolescent girls only, adolescent girls and boys, and adolescents plus young adults could prevent an additional number of 100 000 (UI, 95 000-105 000), 118 000 (UI, 113 000-123 000), and 142 000 (UI, 136 000-148 000) male OPC cases by 2100. Delayed recovery of the HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to 600 (UI, 580-620) to 6200 (UI, 5940-6460) additional male OPC cases by 2100, conditional on the decline in the extent of the national HPV vaccination coverage and potential delay in rebounding.

INTERPRETATION

Oropharyngeal cancer burden is projected to rise among men in the USA. Nationwide efforts to achieve the HPV vaccination goal of 80% coverage should be a public health priority. Rapid recovery of the declined HPV vaccination uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic is also crucial to prevent future excess OPC burden.

FUNDING

National Cancer Institute and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the USA.

Median Age at HPV Infection Among Women in the United States: A Model-Based Analysis Informed by Real-world Data

Background

The US Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended shared clinical decision-making for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of individuals aged 27 to 45 years (mid-adults) in June 2019. Determining the median age at causal HPV infection and CIN2+ diagnosis based on the natural history of HPV disease can help elucidate the incidence of HPV infections and the potential benefits of vaccination in mid-adults.

Methods

Real-world data on CIN2+ diagnosis from the prevaccine era were sourced from a statewide surveillance registry in Connecticut. Age distribution of CIN2+ diagnosis in 2008 and 2009 was estimated. A discrete event simulation model was developed to predict the age distribution of causal HPV infection. The optimal age distribution of causal HPV infection provided the best goodness-of-fit statistic to compare the predicted vs real-world age distribution of CIN2+ diagnosis.

Results

The median age at CIN2+ diagnosis from 2008 through 2009 in Connecticut was 28 years. The predicted median age at causal HPV infection was estimated to be 23.9 years. There was a difference of 5.2 years in the median age at acquisition of causal HPV infection and the median age at CIN2+ diagnosis.

Conclusions

Real-world data on CIN2+ diagnosis and model-based analysis indicate a substantial burden of infection and disease among women aged 27 years or older, which supports the ACIP recommendation to vaccinate some mid-adults. When natural history is known, this novel approach can also help determine the timing of causal infections for other commonly asymptomatic infectious diseases.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Trends and Disparities in the United States: Who Is Getting Left Behind?

BACKGROUND

United States guidelines recommend human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for males and females up to 26, with more recent extended coverage for those 27 to 45 years based on discussion with patients' clinician. This study seeks to assess trends and disparities of vaccination in the United States based on demographic characteristics.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2007 and 2016. χ2 Analyses were used for statistical methods.

RESULTS

Of 12,844 participants (median age, 22 years; range, 9-36 years), 2711 (21.3%) initiated HPV vaccination, of which 1358 (56.3%) completed the 3-dose vaccination series. Vaccination rates were higher in females compared with males (24.6% vs 13.0%; P < 0.001) and in Whites compared to Mexican Americans (22.6% vs 19.4%; P = 0.02). The uninsured had lower vaccination rates than private insurance and Medicaid (12.5% vs 22.4% vs 28.5%; P < 0.001). We divided the 10 year study into five separate periods (2007-2008, 2009-2010, 2011-2012, 2013-2014, and 2015-2016) to analyze trends. Vaccine initiation increased from 19.6% to 49.6% for 14-19-year olds (P < 0.001), 10.4% to 35.5% for females (P < 0.001), and 8.5% to 32.9% for Blacks (P < 0.001). Although on trend analyses, the vaccination rates with the highest proportional increase were found in those: older than 25 to 29 years (4.56-fold), Mexican Americans (4.56 fold), below high school education (2.32 fold), and low income group (2.90 fold) over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The HPV vaccination rates in Mexican Americans increased nearly 5-fold over the last 10 years. However, their vaccination rates continue to lag behind Whites and Blacks.

Projected Association of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination With Oropharynx Cancer Incidence in the US, 2020-2045

Importance

Oropharynx cancer (OPC) incidence has increased for several decades in the US. It is unclear when and how this trend will be affected by current HPV vaccination trends.

Objective

To assess the association of HPV vaccination with future OPC incidence in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based age-period-cohort analysis obtained OPC incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program from 69 562 patients 34 to 83 years of age diagnosed with OPC. The HPV vaccination data were obtained from the National Immunization Survey-Teen (60 124 participants) and National Health Interview Survey (16 904 participants). Data were collected from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2017. Age-period-cohort forecasting models projected expected 2018 to 2045 OPC incidence under a counterfactual scenario of no HPV vaccination and current levels of HPV vaccination, stratifying by sex. Data analyses were completed by December 2020.

Exposures

Age- and sex-specific cumulative prevalence of HPV vaccination in 2016 to 2017 projected forward.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Projected OPC incidence and number of OPC cases expected to be prevented by HPV vaccination.

Results

Under current HPV vaccination rates, between 2018 and 2045, OPC incidence is projected to decrease in younger individuals (36-45 years of age: from 1.4 to 0.8 per 100 000 population; 46-55 years of age: from 8.7 to 7.2 per 100 000 population) but continue to increase among older individuals (70-83 years of age: from 16.8 to 29.0 per 100 000 population). The association of HPV vaccination with overall OPC incidence through 2045 will remain modest (no vaccination vs vaccination: 14.3 vs 13.8 per 100 000 population in 2045). By 2045 HPV vaccination is projected to reduce OPC incidence among individuals 36 to 45 years of age (men: 48.1%; women: 42.5%) and 46 to 55 years of age (men: 9.0%; women: 22.6%), but among those 56 years or older, rates are not meaningfully reduced. Between 2018 and 2045, a total of 6334 OPC cases will be prevented by HPV vaccination, of which 88.8% of such cases occur in younger age (≤55 years) groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

According to the projections of this population-based age-period-cohort study, current HPV vaccination rates will have a limited association with overall OPC incidence through 2045 because older individuals who have not yet been vaccinated remain at high risk for OPC. However, reductions in OPC incidence should occur among young and middle-aged adults, the group at lowest risk of diagnosis. These findings forecast a continued shift in the landscape of OPC to an older population.

The correlation between high-risk HPV infection and precancerous lesions and cervical cancer

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the correlation between high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and precancerous lesions and cervical cancer.

METHODS

Patients with cervicitis (N=100), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade I (CIN I) (N=100), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades II-III (CIN II-III) (N=100) and cervical cancer (N=100) were enrolled. The exfoliated cervical cells were collected with the same method, and the detection of the HPV types was carried out by PCR-reverse dot blot (RDB) assay.

RESULTS

The top 5 HPV types in stage I-II cervical cancer were 16, 18, 52, 58, and 53, with a HPV positivity rate of 83.61%, while top 5 HPV types in stage III-IV cervical cancer were 16, 18, 58, 52, and 33, with a HPV positivity rate of 82.05%. The rate of high-risk HPV positivity for cervicitis was 5%, with HPV types of 16, 18, 52, and 33, 12% for CIN I, with HPV types of 16, 58, 52, 33, 56, 66, and 68, and 42% for CIN II-III, with HPV types of 16, 18, 58, 52, 33, 66, and 68. The prevalence of single, dual, and multiple HPV infection was 8.00%, 1.00%, and 0.00% for CIN I, 24.00%, 7.00%, and 1.00% for CIN II-III, and 57.00%, 25.00%, and 3.00% for cervical cancer, respectively. The age of patients with CIN I was mainly ≤24 and 25-34 years while CIN II-III in 25-34 and 35-44 years, and cervical cancer in 35-44 and 45-54 years.

CONCLUSION

The distribution of HPV subtypes in cervical cancer is closely related to the pathological types, lesion grades, and stages of cervical cancer. The incidence of cervical lesions varies with age, suggesting that high-risk groups should be well monitored and receive regular screening and timely HPV vaccination to effectively prevent cervical cancer.

Risk-benefit analysis of 9-valent HPV vaccination for adolescent boys from an individual perspective

Japan recently approved quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for males, but 9-valent vaccine is only approved for females. Given the low female vaccination rate due to a concern of adverse events in Japan, quantifying the risk and benefit of the HPV vaccination for male may help the decision making to vaccinate adolescent boys in Japan. Using quality-adjusted life years, the risk-benefit ratio for an adolescent boy to get the 9-valent HPV vaccination was calculated. The male HPV vaccination reduced the QALY gain due to head and neck cancer, anal cancer, penile cancer, genital warts and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis by 401.63, 20.38, 9.40, 28.79 and 69.13/100,000 vaccinated persons, respectively. The total risk of the vaccination was 11.85. The risk-benefit ratio for a 12-year old boy to receive the HPV vaccination series is calculated as 0.022 (the benefit-risk ratio 44.67). In the sensitivity analysis the risk-benefit ratio ranged from 0.0001 to 0.11. for all scenarios. The much larger benefit compared with the risk for the male HPV vaccination was observed from an individual perspective. The result supports the inclusion of sex-neutral HPV vaccination into the national immunization program as well as the decision making for adolescent boys to get the vaccination.

Colposcopic histopathology results of patients over 50: Is HPV genotyping useful?

BACKGROUND

To determine the rate of high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesion and cancer (HSIL+) diagnosis as a result of colposcopic histopathology in patients aged ≥50 years and to investigate the role of cytology, Human Papillomavirus (HPV) test positivity and HPV genotyping in predicting HSIL+.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

The study included 1102 patients aged ≥50 as study group and 2723 patients aged <50 as control group who were admitted to our colposcopy unit between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2019 and underwent colposcopy for the first time. The patients with HSIL+ were compared as Cytology group and HPV group in the study group. To evaluate the impact of genotyping HPV positive group was compared in terms of HSIL+ results in subgroups with HPV16/18 and HPV other types positivity. Patients diagnosed with cancer in the same period were compared in terms of age, stage and histology as screening cancer group and symptomatic cancer groups.

RESULTS

The rate of cervical cancer in the study group was 2.2% and 1.2 % in the control group. In patients diagnosed with cancer, Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage was ≥ stage IB2 in 57.4% of cases in the symptomatic cancer group and in 18.9% of cases in the screening cancer group. The HPV 16/18 positivity rate in HSIL+ patients were 75.0% and 79.5% in the study and control group, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Cervical cancer rates were found to be high in the group aged ≥ 50 years. HPV genotyping is as effective in patients ≥50 years of age as in those aged < 50 years. Patients diagnosed as a result of screening are caught in the early stages and therefore with increased general life expectancy, the age at which screening is discontinued should be re-evaluated.

Tracking changes in age distribution of head and neck cancer in the United States from 1975 to2016

INTRODUCTION

Several independent studies report an alarming increase in patients younger than 40 being diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. There is currently a lack of available data clearly tracking changes in the age distribution of head and neck cancer (HNC) within the United States. This study attempts to elucidate any trends in oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx and hypopharynx cancer age distribution in the United States population from 1975 to 2016. Unlike previous studies, this paper does not track incidence but rather reports proportional changes of prevalence within age cohorts over time.

METHODS

This is a retrospective chart review centred on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). Each decade interval from 1975 to 2016 displays the proportion of HNC patients, classified by primary tumour subsite, within each age cohort.

RESULTS

Mean age at diagnosis increased for all subsites except oropharynx. Oropharyngeal cancer was the only subsite to show a decrease in the mean age at diagnosis. In addition, oropharyngeal cancer was the only subsite to demonstrate an overall increase in proportional prevalence, largely due to increased incidence in middle-age (40-59 years) patients. Cancers of the oral cavity were the only subset to show a true increase in the proportion of young (0-39 years) patients, but its mean age at diagnosis still increased. When stratifying by gender, the proportion of young patients in female HNC cases is higher than the young male proportion.

CONCLUSION

Overall, this study demonstrates an increased proportion of older HNC patients that is consistent with the ageing population. Oral cavity cancer demonstrated a true increase in the proportion of young patients, likely due to the increased incidence of young women diagnosed with this cancer. Oropharyngeal cancer was the only subsite to show a decrease in the mean age at diagnosis. The increased proportion of middle-age patients with oropharyngeal cancer likely reflects the increase in HPV-related cancers.

Importance of Lifetime Sexual History on the Prevalence of Genital Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Among Unvaccinated Adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys: Implications for Adult HPV Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Although the United States Food and Drug Administration recently approved the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for individuals aged 27-45 years, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not change its guidelines for routine HPV vaccination. Since recommendations for adult vaccination emphasize shared clinical decision-making based on risk of new infections, we examined the relationship between HPV prevalence and sexual behavior.

METHODS

This study was conducted among 5093 HPV-unvaccinated, sexually experienced adults aged 18-59 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (2013-2016). For each sex and age group, adjusted prevalences of 9-valent vaccine-specific, high-risk, and any HPV infection were estimated by number of lifetime sexual partners (LTSPs) using logistic regression. An analysis restricted to persons who did not have a new sexual partner in the past year (ie, removing those at highest risk of newly acquired HPV) was also conducted.

RESULTS

In each age group, genital HPV prevalence was higher among persons with >5 LTSPs compared with 1-5 LTSPs in both males and females. There were only slight reductions in HPV prevalence after removing participants who reported a new sexual partner in the past year. For example, among females aged 27-45 years with >5 LTSPs, the adjusted prevalence of 9-valent vaccine-type HPV infection was 13.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.9%-17.0%) in the full population compared to 12.1% (95% CI, 8.8%-15.4%) among those with no new sexual partners.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalent HPV infection was primarily reflective of cumulative exposures over time (higher LTSPs). New exposures had limited impact, emphasizing the need to consider sexual history in the decision-making process for adult HPV vaccination.

Sexual health and wellbeing after pelvic radiotherapy among women with and without a reported history of sexual abuse: important issues in cancer survivorship care

Aims

Sexual abuse is a women’s health concern globally. Although experience of sexual abuse and cancer may constitute risk factors for sexual dysfunction and low wellbeing, the effects of sexual abuse have received little attention in oncology care. This study aims to explore sexual health and wellbeing in women after pelvic radiotherapy and to determine the relationship between sexual abuse and sexual dysfunction, and decreased wellbeing.

Methods

Using a study-specific questionnaire, data were collected during 2011–2017 from women with gynaecological, anal, or rectal cancer treated with curative pelvic radiotherapy in a population-based cohort and a referred patient group. Subgroup analyses of data from women with a reported history of sexual abuse were conducted, comparing socio-demographics, diagnosis, aspects of sexual health and wellbeing.

Results

In the total sample of 570 women, 11% reported a history of sexual abuse and among these women the most common diagnosis was cervical cancer. More women with than without a history of sexual abuse reported feeling depressed (19.4% vs. 9%, p = 0.007) or anxious (22.6% vs. 11.8%, p = 0.007) and suffering genital pain during sexual activity (52% vs. 25.1%, p = 0.011, RR 2.07, CI 1.24–3.16). In the total study cohort, genital pain during sexual activity was associated with vaginal shortness (68.5% vs. 31.4% p ≤ 0.001) and inelasticity (66.6% vs. 33.3%, p ≤ 0.001).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that a history of both sexual abuse and pelvic radiotherapy in women are associated with increased psychological distress and sexual impairment, challenging healthcare professionals to take action to prevent retraumatisation and provide appropriate interventions and support.

Estimating the Natural History of Cervical Carcinogenesis Using Simulation Models: A CISNET Comparative Analysis

BACKGROUND

The natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer (CC) is not directly observable, yet the age of HPV acquisition and duration of preclinical disease (dwell time) influences the effectiveness of alternative preventive policies. We performed a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) comparative modeling analysis to characterize the age of acquisition of cancer-causing HPV infections and implied dwell times for distinct phases of cervical carcinogenesis.

METHODS

Using four CISNET-cervical models with varying underlying structures but fit to common US epidemiological data, we estimated the age of acquisition of causal HPV infections and dwell times associated with three phases of cancer development: HPV, high-grade precancer, and cancer sojourn time. We stratified these estimates by HPV genotype under both natural history and CC screening scenarios, because screening prevents cancer development that affects the mix of detected cancers.

RESULTS

The median time from HPV acquisition to cancer detection ranged from 17.5 to 26.0 years across the four models. Three models projected that 50% of unscreened women acquired their causal HPV infection between ages 19 and 23 years, whereas one model projected these infections occurred later (age 34 years). In the context of imperfect compliance with US screening guidelines, the median age of causal infection was 4.4-15.9 years later compared with model projections in the absence of screening.

CONCLUSIONS

These validated CISNET-CC models, which reflect some uncertainty in the development of CC, elucidate important drivers of HPV vaccination and CC screening policies and emphasize the value of comparative modeling when evaluating public health policies.

Distribution of HPV Genotypes Differs Depending on Behavioural Factors among Young Women

Risk factors for the different human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes are not well understood, although the risk of cancer is known to vary among them. Our aim was to evaluate the association of diverse behavioral and reproductive factors with genotype-specific HPV prevalence among 879 unvaccinated women aged 18–75 years referred to the colposcopy clinic at Helsinki University Hospital in Finland. Cervical swabs for HPV genotyping were collected in the first visit and assessed for 34 high-risk (hr) and low-risk (lr) HPV genotypes. Participants completed a questionnaire on behavioral, reproductive, and lifestyle factors. Differences in genotype-specific HPV prevalence were analyzed overall and in age groups using binary logistic regression. Smoking was associated with higher prevalence in HPV16 compared with other hrHPV genotypes together with decreasing age, being highest among younger women <30 years old, odds ratio (OR) 3.74 (95% CI 1.42–9.88). The later the sexual debut, the more it seemed to protect from HPV16 infection. The best protection was achieved when the sexual debut took place at >20 years of age, with an OR of 0.43 (95% CI 0.23–0.83). This association was not seen with other hrHPV genotypes. Methods of contraception seemed not to have an effect on hrHPV positivity, regardless of the HPV genotype. The genotype specific hrHPV prevalence differs, depending on behavioral factors, especially among younger women referred to colposcopy.

Human papillomavirus vaccination for adults aged 30 to 45 years in the United States: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

A nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been licensed for use in women and men up to age 45 years in the United States. The cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for women and men aged 30 to 45 years in the context of cervical cancer screening practice was evaluated to inform national guidelines.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We utilized 2 independent HPV microsimulation models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extending the upper age limit of HPV vaccination in women (from age 26 years) and men (from age 21 years) up to age 30, 35, 40, or 45 years. The models were empirically calibrated to reflect the burden of HPV and related cancers in the US population and used standardized inputs regarding historical and future vaccination uptake, vaccine efficacy, cervical cancer screening, and costs. Disease outcomes included cervical, anal, oropharyngeal, vulvar, vaginal, and penile cancers, as well as genital warts. Both models projected higher costs and greater health benefits as the upper age limit of HPV vaccination increased. Strategies of vaccinating females and males up to ages 30, 35, and 40 years were found to be less cost-effective than vaccinating up to age 45 years, which had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) greater than a commonly accepted upper threshold of $200,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. When including all HPV-related outcomes, the ICER for vaccinating up to age 45 years ranged from $315,700 to $440,600 per QALY gained. Assumptions regarding cervical screening compliance, vaccine costs, and the natural history of noncervical HPV-related cancers had major impacts on the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination strategies. Key limitations of the study were related to uncertainties in the data used to inform the models, including the timing of vaccine impact on noncervical cancers and vaccine efficacy at older ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results from 2 independent models suggest that HPV vaccination for adult women and men aged 30 to 45 years is unlikely to represent good value for money in the US.

Distribution of human papillomavirus genotypes in western China and their association with cervical cancer and precancerous lesions

The aim of this study was to describe the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes among cervical cancers and pre-cancers in Shaanxi province of western China. A total of 17,341 women who were screened for cervical cancer from January 2014 to December 2016, using HPV genotyping and ThinPrep cytologic test were included. The prevalence and attribution of HPV genotypes were stratified by cervical lesion and age group. Of the subjects, 26.3% were infected with HPV, 28.0% of whom had multiple infections. The crude HPV prevalence increased from atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance/low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (ASCUS/LSIL, 64.3%) to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL, 79.8%) and to invasive cervical cancer (ICC, 89.7%, P < 0.001). The three most prevalent genotypes were HPV 16 (8.0%), 58 (4.2%), and 52 (4.0%), and HPV 16, 31 and 33 were positively correlated with increased severity of cervical lesions. Additionally, the divalent vaccine genotypes HPV 16 and 18 accounted for 68.2% of ICC cases. Although 78.5% of ICC and 60.3% of HSIL cases were attributed to 9-valent vaccine genotypes, the other genotypes not covered by any vaccine still resulted in increases in coverage, with 1.5% for ICC, 5.3% for HSIL, and 13.5% for ASCUS/LSIL. HPV prevalence in western China was consistent with other regions of China. Early vaccination with 9-valent HPV vaccine is recommended in this locality for females younger than 26 years with no prior infection, while divalent the vaccine is more appropriate for women between 26 and 45 years, considering the efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of vaccines.

A National Survey of Obstetrician/Gynecologists' Knowledge, Attitudes, and Beliefs Regarding Adult Human Papillomavirus Vaccination

Background: Many women see an obstetrician/gynecologist (OB/GYN) annually and receive their primary care from an OB/GYN. Understanding OB/GYNs' human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination practices, including knowledge of and barriers to vaccination, is essential to design effective interventions to increase vaccination. This study evaluated OB/GYN knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding vaccinating both younger (18-26 years) and mid-adult (27-45 years) women. Materials and Methods: Data were collected from OB/GYN providers in October 2019 through a nationwide web-based survey. Items included the following: HPV-related vaccination practices, recommendation strength, knowledge (seven items), benefits (four items), and barriers (eight items). Results: The sample (n = 224) was majority were White (69%), men (56%), and practice in suburban clinics (55%). Most (84%) reported they usually or always recommend HPV vaccine to eligible patients, but estimated only about half (51%) of other OB/GYNs did the same. Recommendation strength varied by patient age with 84% strongly recommending it to patients ≤18 years, compared with 79% and 25% strongly recommending to younger and mid-adult patients, respectively (p < 0.01). Participants reported lower benefits (p = 0.007) and higher barriers (p < 0.001) for 27- to 45-year-old patients compared with younger patients. Cost was the most frequently reported barrier, regardless of patient age. Overall knowledge was high (m = 5.2/7) but 33% of participants did not know the vaccine was safe while breastfeeding. Conclusions: Although providers reported strongly and consistently recommending the HPV vaccination to their adult patients, there were gaps in knowledge and attitudinal barriers that need to be addressed. Provider performance feedback may be important in improving HPV vaccination awareness among providers.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus 16 genotype in Anuppur district, Madhya Pradesh

India contributes to 1/3rd of worldwide cervical cancer deaths caused by HPV. High risk human papillomavirus (hr-HPV) 16 and 18 infections are responsible for more than 70% of cases. Early detection of hr-HPV infection can help in prevention and disease management. In rural India, HPV infection is uncontrolled due to poor hygiene, lack of awareness, screening, and vaccination. Hence, our study aims to screen HPV infection in central India starting with Anuppur district of MP. Married women above 15 and women with or without clinical conditions were recruited for the study. Unmarried, pregnant and women with cervical cancer history were excluded. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 782 enrolled married adolescents and middle aged women by obtaining clinical information and cervical swabs between March 2019 to March 2020. Genomic DNA was extracted and screened for HPV using MY09/11 and HPV-16 specific primers, data was analysed using IBM-SPSS statistics software. An overall prevalence of 7.1% HPV infection was observed, and a significant incidence (95%) of hr-HPV 16 genotype was found. There was a considerable decrease in HPV prevalence with age; young adults between 15 and 29 years (86.4%) followed by women aged between 30 and 54 years (13.2%). Among positives, hr-HPV-16 prevalence was not significantly different among the different age-groups (p > 0.05). Hr-HPV-16 infection was detected highest in Scheduled Tribes (ST) 70%, followed by other categories. Interventions such as screening and awareness programs will help in better management of HPV infection.

Cervical cancer screening for individuals at average risk: 2020 guideline update from the American Cancer Society

The American Cancer Society (ACS) recommends that individuals with a cervix initiate cervical cancer screening at age 25 years and undergo primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing every 5 years through age 65 years (preferred); if primary HPV testing is not available, then individuals aged 25 to 65 years should be screened with cotesting (HPV testing in combination with cytology) every 5 years or cytology alone every 3 years (acceptable) (strong recommendation). The ACS recommends that individuals aged >65 years who have no history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe disease within the past 25 years, and who have documented adequate negative prior screening in the prior 10 years, discontinue all cervical cancer screening (qualified recommendation). These new screening recommendations differ in 4 important respects compared with the 2012 recommendations: 1) The preferred screening strategy is primary HPV testing every 5 years, with cotesting and cytology alone acceptable where access to US Food and Drug Administration-approved primary HPV testing is not yet available; 2) the recommended age to start screening is 25 years rather than 21 years; 3) primary HPV testing, as well as cotesting or cytology alone when primary testing is not available, is recommended starting at age 25 years rather than age 30 years; and 4) the guideline is transitional, ie, options for screening with cotesting or cytology alone are provided but should be phased out once full access to primary HPV testing for cervical cancer screening is available without barriers. Evidence related to other relevant issues was reviewed, and no changes were made to recommendations for screening intervals, age or criteria for screening cessation, screening based on vaccination status, or screening after hysterectomy. Follow-up for individuals who screen positive for HPV and/or cytology should be in accordance with the 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology risk-based management consensus guidelines for abnormal cervical cancer screening tests and cancer precursors.

Role of Screening History in Clinical Meaning and Optimal Management of Positive Cervical Screening Results

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is caused by persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. US consensus management guidelines for a positive cervical screening result typically focus on the current screening result only. A negative testing history may alter risk of the following positive screening results, caused by a new HPV infection, and therefore its optimal management.

METHODS

Women ages 30 years and older were screened with triennial HPV and cytology co-testing at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2003 to 2014. We estimated the subsequent 5-year risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or more severe diagnoses (CIN3+) in a cohort of 1 156 387 women following abnormal (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US] or worse) cytology and/or positive HPV testing, when the test result followed 0 (n = 990 013), 1 (n = 543 986), 2 (n = 245 974), or 3 (n = 79 946) consecutive negative co-test(s). All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Following 0-3 successive negative co-tests, 5-year CIN3+ risks following a positive HPV test decreased progressively from 7.2% (95% CI = 7.0% to 7.4%) to 1.5% (95% CI = 0.7% to 3.4%) (Ptrend < .001). Similarly, risks following an abnormal (ASC-US or worse) cytology result decreased from 6.6% (95% CI = 6.4% to 6.9%) to 1.1% (95% CI = 0.5% to 2.3%) (Ptrend < .001). Risks following low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, the risk threshold for referral to colposcopy in the United States, decreased from 5.2% (95% CI = 4.7% to 5.7%) to 0.9% (95% CI = 0.2% to 4.3%). Risks following high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or more severe, a specific marker for the presence of precancerous lesions, decreased from 50.0% (95% CI = 47.5% to 52.5%) to 10.0% (95% CI = 2.6% to 34.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Following one or more sequential antecedent, documented negative co-tests or HPV tests, women with HPV-positive ASC-US or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion might have sufficiently low CIN3+ risk that they do not need colposcopy referral and might instead undergo 6-12-month surveillance for evidence of higher risk before being referred to colposcopy.

From potential to practice: how accelerating access to HPV tests and screen and treat programmes can help eliminate cervical cancer

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination campaigns to prevent cervical cancer are being considered and implemented in countries around the world. While vaccination will protect future generations, it will not help the millions of women currently infected, leading to an estimated 311 000 deaths per year globally. This paper examines a selection of strategies that when applied to both existing and new technologies, could accelerate access to HPV testing. Authors from the US Agency for International Development, the National Institutes of Health, and the Bridge to Health Medical and Dental, a non-governmental organisation, joined forces to propose a scalable and country-directed solution for preventing cervical cancer using an end-to-end approach. Collectively, the authors offer seven evidence-based strategies, that when used alone or in combination have the ability to reduce HPV-caused cervical cancer deaths and disability. These strategies include (1) consistent HPV test intervals to decrease HPV DNA test costs; (2) exploring market shaping opportunities; (3) employing iterative user research methodologies like human-centred design; (4) target product profiles for new HPV tests; (5) encouraging innovation around cervical cancer screen and treat programmes; (6) developing national cancer control plans; and (7) integrating cervical cancer screen and treat services into existing infrastructure. By using the strategies outlined here, in combination with HPV vaccination campaigns, national governments will be able to scale and expand cervical cancer screening programmes and provide evidence-based treatment programmes for HPV-infected women.

Evaluation of the Burden of HPV-Related Hospitalizations as a Useful Tool to Increase Awareness: 2007-2017 Data from the Sicilian Hospital Discharge Records

In light of the implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) prevention strategies, epidemiological studies in different geographical areas are required in order to assess the impact of HPV-related diseases. The purpose of the present study was to describe the burden of HPV-related hospitalizations in Sicily. A retrospective observational study estimated 43,531 hospitalizations attributable to HPV from 2007 to 2017. During the observed period, there was a decrease for all HPV-related conditions with a higher reduction, among neoplasms, for cervical cancer (annual percent change (APC) = −9.9%, p < 0.001). The median age for cervical cancer was 45 years old, with an increasing value from 43 to 47 years (p < 0.001). The age classes with greater decreases in hospital admissions for invasive cancers were women aged 35 years or more (APC range from −5.5 to −9.86) and 25–34 years old (APC = −11.87, p < 0.001) for women with cervical carcinoma in situ. After ten years for vaccine introduction and sixteen years for cervical cancer screening availability, a relatively large decrease in hospital admissions for cervical cancer and other HPV-related diseases in Sicily was observed. Some clinical characteristics of hospitalization, such as increasing age, are suggestive clues for the impact of preventive strategies, but further research is needed to confirm this relationship.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Through Age 45 Years in the United States

BACKGROUND

In the United States, the routine age for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is 11 to 12 years, with catch-up vaccination through age 26 years for women and 21 years for men. U.S. vaccination policy on use of the 9-valent HPV vaccine in adult women and men is being reviewed.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the added population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of extending the current U.S. HPV vaccination program to women aged 27 to 45 years and men aged 22 to 45 years.

DESIGN

The analysis used HPV-ADVISE (Agent-based Dynamic model for VaccInation and Screening Evaluation), an individual-based transmission dynamic model of HPV infection and associated diseases, calibrated to age-specific U.S. data.

DATA SOURCES

Published data.

TARGET POPULATION

Women aged 27 to 45 years and men aged 22 to 45 years in the United States.

TIME HORIZON

100 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care sector.

INTERVENTION

9-valent HPV vaccination.

OUTCOME MEASURES

HPV-associated outcomes prevented and cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

The model predicts that the current U.S. HPV vaccination program will reduce the number of diagnoses of anogenital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or 3 and cases of cervical cancer and noncervical HPV-associated cancer by 82%, 80%, 59%, and 39%, respectively, over 100 years and is cost saving (vs. no vaccination). In contrast, extending vaccination to women and men aged 45 years is predicted to reduce these outcomes by an additional 0.4, 0.4, 0.2, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. Vaccinating women and men up to age 30, 40, and 45 years is predicted to cost $830 000, $1 843 000, and $1 471 000, respectively, per quality-adjusted life-year gained (vs. current vaccination).

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were most sensitive to assumptions about natural immunity and progression rates after infection, historical vaccination coverage, and vaccine efficacy.

LIMITATION

Uncertainty about the proportion of HPV-associated disease due to infections after age 26 years and about the level of herd effects from the current HPV vaccination program.

CONCLUSION

The current HPV vaccination program is predicted to be cost saving. Extending vaccination to older ages is predicted to produce small additional health benefits and result in substantially higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios than the current recommendation.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Sexual behavior and infection with cervical human papillomavirus types 16 and 18

Objective

This study assessed whether sexual behavior, including engaging in early sexual intercourse and having had multiple sexual partners, can predict the risk of infection with cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18.

Methods

Records were reviewed of women who underwent cervical cancer screening and were found to be infected with high-risk HPV. The genotypes of high-risk HPV were categorized as HPV 16, HPV 18, and other than 16 or 18. Early sexual intercourse was defined as first sexual intercourse at the age of 19 years or younger. Multiple sexual partners was defined as having more than three lifetime sexual partners. Associations between sexual behavior and HPV 16/18 infection were presented as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Of the 349 women included in the study, 72 (20.6%) and 30 (8.6%) were infected by HPV 16 and 18, respectively. Eighty-two women (26.0%) reported having engaged in early sexual intercourse, and 33 (10.4%) reported having had multiple sexual partners. After adjustment for age, parity, and smoking habits, we found that women who had engaged in early sexual intercourse tended to have a higher risk of HPV 16 (OR 1.74; 95% CI 0.93-3.29), and those who had had multiple sexual partners were found to be at a significantly higher risk for HPV 18 (OR 4.58; 95% CI 1.44-14.58).

Conclusion

Sexual behavior was associated with an increased risk of HPV 16/18 infection. Engaging in early sexual intercourse increased the risk of HPV 16 infection, and having had multiple sexual partners increased that of HPV 18.

Human papillomavirus vaccination and the role of herd effects in future cancer control planning: a review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine herd effects are the indirect protection that vaccinated persons provide to those who remain susceptible to infection, due to the reduced transmission of infections. Herd effects have been an important part of the discourse on how to best implement human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and prevent HPV-related diseases.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the theory of HPV vaccine herd effects derived from mathematical models, give an account of observed HPV vaccine herd effects worldwide, and examine the implications of vaccine herd effects for future cervical cancer screening efforts.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

HPV vaccine herd effects improve the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating preadolescent girls, but contribute to making gender-neutral vaccination less economically efficient. Vaccination coverage and sexual mixing patterns by age are strong determinants of herd effects. Many countries worldwide are starting to observe reductions in HPV-related outcomes likely attributable to herd effects, most notably declining anogenital warts in young men, and declining HPV-16/18 infection prevalence in young unvaccinated women. Policy makers making recommendations for cervical cancer screening will have to consider HPV vaccination coverage and herd effects, as these will affect the positive predictive value of screening and the risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated women.

Effect of Time to Diagnostic Testing for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Screening Abnormalities on Screening Efficacy: A Modeling Study

Background: Patients who receive an abnormal cancer screening result require follow-up for diagnostic testing, but the time to follow-up varies across patients and practices.Methods: We used a simulation study to estimate the change in lifetime screening benefits when time to follow-up for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers was increased. Estimates were based on four independently developed microsimulation models that each simulated the life course of adults eligible for breast (women ages 50-74 years), cervical (women ages 21-65 years), or colorectal (adults ages 50-75 years) cancer screening. We assumed screening based on biennial mammography for breast cancer, triennial Papanicolaou testing for cervical cancer, and annual fecal immunochemical testing for colorectal cancer. For each cancer type, we simulated diagnostic testing immediately and at 3, 6, and 12 months after an abnormal screening exam.Results: We found declines in screening benefit with longer times to diagnostic testing, particularly for breast cancer screening. Compared to immediate diagnostic testing, testing at 3 months resulted in reduced screening benefit, with fewer undiscounted life years gained per 1,000 screened (breast: 17.3%, cervical: 0.8%, colorectal: 2.0% and 2.7%, from two colorectal cancer models), fewer cancers prevented (cervical: 1.4% fewer, colorectal: 0.5% and 1.7% fewer, respectively), and, for breast and colorectal cancer, a less favorable stage distribution.Conclusions: Longer times to diagnostic testing after an abnormal screening test can decrease screening effectiveness, but the impact varies substantially by cancer type.Impact: Understanding the impact of time to diagnostic testing on screening effectiveness can help inform quality improvement efforts. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(2); 158-64. ©2017 AACR.