Household context and child mortality in rural South Africa: the effects of birth spacing, shared mortality, household composition and socio-economic status

Prevalence of short inter-birth intervals and associated factors among women of reproductive age: evidence from a nationally representative survey in Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

Short inter-birth intervals negatively impact maternal and child health; however, data on their prevalence and associated factors in Tanzania are limited. This study investigates the prevalence of short inter-birth intervals and the associated factors among women of reproductive age in Tanzania.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study utilizing the 2022 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey dataset. The study population included women aged 15-49 years with at least two births within five years preceding the survey. A short inter-birth interval was defined as a birth occurring < 33 months after the preceding birth. A generalized linear model with Poisson as a link and robust standard errors was used to examine factors associated with short inter-birth intervals. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 8,350 births from 6,034 women were included in this analysis. The mean (± SD) age of the women was 31.6 ± 6.8 years. The overall prevalence of short inter-birth intervals was 42.6%. Younger age (aPR 3.12, 95% CI 2.88-3.52 for age 15-24 years, and aPR 1.74, 95% CI 1.62-1.1.86 for age 25-34 years), being married (aPR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.57), late age at first childbirth (aPR 1.24, 95% CI 1.17-1.32) for a 20-24 years and aPR 1.55, 95% CI 1.39-1.73 for ≥ 25 years), and higher birth order (aPR 1.02, 95% CI 1.03-1.19; aPR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.34; aPR 1.72, 95% CI 1.58-1.86 for 3rd, 4th, and 5th or more birth orders, respectively, compared to 2nd birth order) were independently associated with short inter-birth intervals. Additionally, there was significant variation in the prevalence of short inter-birth intervals across different zones and levels of household wealth. Women from richer (aPR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.80-0.95) and richest (aPR 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.94) households exhibited a lower prevalence of short inter-birth intervals.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the significant prevalence of short inter-birth intervals among women of reproductive age in Tanzania. The associated factors include younger age, marital status, delayed first childbirth, higher birth order, geographical disparities, and lower household wealth. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to promote birth spacing and improve maternal and child health outcomes.

Under-five mortality and social determinants in africa: a systematic review

PURPOSE

Under-five mortality is a key public health indicator, highly responsive to preventive interventions. While global efforts have made strides in reducing mortality rates in this age group, significant disparities persist, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to systematically review the factors influencing under-five mortality in Africa, focusing on sociodemographic factors and health-related determinants.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted adhering to PRISMA guidelines. Studies were identified from a range of well-established indexed academic databases. Keywords and Boolean operators facilitated relevant study retrieval. Only articles published in English, Portuguese, or Spanish between January 2013 and November 2024, in peer-reviewed journals, were included. Methodological quality assessment utilised the Joanna Briggs Institute tool.

RESULTS

Of the 602 studies identified, 39 met the inclusion criteria. Key determinants of under-five mortality included socioeconomic factors such as poverty and maternal education, along with maternal age extremes, multiparity, inadequate prenatal care, and low birth weight.

CONCLUSION

Addressing social disparities, particularly through enhanced maternal education and improved access to primary healthcare, is critical in reducing under-five mortality in Africa. The findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions that address both social and healthcare-related factors to mitigate child mortality in the region.

WHAT IS KNOWN

•Under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa is primarily driven by preventable infectious diseases, such as diarrhoea, pneumonia, malaria, and HIV/AIDS, compounded by malnutrition and inadequate healthcare infrastructure. •Socio-economic factors, including poverty, maternal education, and limited access to quality healthcare, are consistently identified as key determinants of high child mortality rates in the region.

WHAT IS NEW

•This review applies the Mosley and Chen framework to categorise the determinants of under-five mortality into distal, intermediate, and proximal factors, providing a structured understanding of their interconnections. •The findings underscore how socio-economic conditions, maternal education, and healthcare access interact to influence child survival outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa, offering valuable insights for region-specific public health interventions.

Effect of maternal migration on under-five mortality in the Navrongo HDSS area

INTRODUCTION

Mortality under five years is an important indicator and a significant index for assessing the health and general wellbeing of a country. Even though global efforts to reduce under-five mortality have yielded some positive results, the rates are still high in most low- and middle-income countries. There is general consensus that migration and its associated remittances alleviate poverty at the rural places of origin. This tends to improve household living standards and leads to improvement in child health and survival. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of maternal migration on under-five mortality in two districts in the Upper East Region of Ghana.

METHODS

This study used data from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) of the Navrongo Health Research Centre (NHRC) in Ghana. All children (20,990) born in the study area between 2000 and 2014 were included in the analysis. The outcome variable in the analysis was the survival status of the children (dead or alive). The main independent variable is migration status of the mothers (migrants and non-migrants). The Proportional Hazard Model, with a Weibull distribution, was used to examine the effect of the independent variables on the survival outcomes of the children.

RESULTS

The results showed that children of migrant (in-migrant or return migrant) mothers are 49% less likely to die compared with children of non-migrant mothers [aOR = 0.513; (CI = 0.451-0585)]. In terms of migration duration before return, survival benefit was highest for children whose mothers had been away for one year and more. Other factors that were associated with increased risk of under-five mortality include children of mothers without education, children of mothers age 15-19 years, children born outside health facility, first order births, multiple births and children without grandmothers in their households.

CONCLUSION

The study has established that maternal migration, irrespective duration, contribute to child survival. Specifically, children of migrant mothers have a better survival chance than children of non-migrant mothers. To improve child survival in these poor rural settings, we recommend the promotion of conducive migration opportunities to enable women to earn some income to support their households in terms of childcare and survival.

Socioeconomic status, perceived family support and psychological distress in older Kenyans: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Incidences of psychological distress are on the rise among older Kenyans. While socioeconomic status and family support have been shown to impact the mental health of older individuals, they remain understudied in the older Kenyan population. This study investigated the prevalence of psychological distress among older Kenyans and examined its relationships with economic status and perceived family support.

METHOD

Data came from a cross-sectional survey of 376 older Kenyans from four rural and urban areas in 2022. The survey collected demographic, global health, social support, socioeconomic, and psychological health variables. Structural equation modeling was used to test the relationship between socioeconomic status, family support, and psychological distress.

RESULTS

Overall, 61% reported high psychological distress, with women experiencing significantly higher levels. Structural equation modeling results indicated that food insecurity, flooring material, material wealth, chronic health, self-rated physical health, sex, and education were significant predictors. The dimensions of family support were not significantly associated with psychological distress.

CONCLUSION

The findings illuminate that psychological distress is a critical health concern for the sample and needs targeted health interventions. They also underline the essential role of economic status in the psychological distress of older Kenyans. Future studies should explore these relationships using longitudinal, family-level, and representative data.

MEASURING UNION FORMALIZATION FOR A NEW GENERATION OF FAMILY DEMOGRAPHY: A CASE STUDY FROM URBAN KENYA

Despite repeated calls for improved measures of marriage as a process in sub‐Saharan Africa, large‐scale surveys continue to rely on static marital status. As a result, there is an incomplete understanding of the effects of marriage on outcomes of interest. We use qualitative and survey data from a longitudinal study of 1,203 young mothers residing in informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, to (1) describe the development of an innovative measure of union formalization (UF) defined as the steps through which a union attains social legitimacy; (2) compare UF with a conventional current marital status measure; (3) examine the distribution of UF steps across union history; and (4) examine the sequence and timing of pregnancy and childbearing within the UF process. We find UF steps indicative of both increasing individualization of marriage and the ongoing importance of kin involvement hold meaning. We demonstrate extensive heterogeneity in the sequence and extent of UF steps completed and interrogate the classification of premarital childbearing using sequence analysis. We argue that measuring UF is feasible and necessary for the next generation of family demography in Africa; UF measures facilitate understanding the linkages among family dynamics, health, and social stratification within the context of ongoing socioeconomic change.

Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

Dynamic household structure and composition: a manual for longitudinal analysis of living arrangements

OBJECTIVE

This research note introduces a set of tools to conduct analysis of household structure and composition with either limited or comprehensive longitudinal data. The data used here are from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa, but the methods can be adapted and applied to other longitudinal micro-data such as register data. A training manual describing the procedures for creating time-varying household measures step-by-step is supplied as supplementary material to this note. Code is provided in STATA but can easily be translated for other statistical software, and the logic for each step remains the same.

RESULTS

The analysis of household structure demonstrates how with limited data (such as a household identifier), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership, including household size or the number of members in specific age and sex groups. The analysis of household composition demonstrates how with expanded data (including links to parents in addition to residence status in the same household), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership of specific kin, i.e. mother, sibling or grandparent. The results illustrated in this research note are a taste of what can be achieved by following the training manual in the supplementary material.

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000-2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

DESIGN

We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

RESULTS

3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95% CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95% CI (0.664 to 0.853)).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.

"The sky is the limit; I am going there": experiences of hope among young women receiving a conditional cash transfer in rural South Africa

Young women in South Africa face elevated risk of HIV infection compared to male peers. Cash transfers may mitigate their risk for HIV; however, there is limited understanding of mechanisms of impact. We explored hope as one potential mechanism. Longitudinal qualitative analysis was used to explore how cash transfer recipients in the HPTN 068 study conceptualised hope and how the intervention influenced their hope over time. We found the intervention increased confidence, alleviated financial stressors and instilled in young women the belief that a better life, defined as being educated, independent and supportive to family, was attainable. Findings support hope as a critical outcome of cash transfer and other economic strengthening interventions.

The Infertility Trap: The Fertility Costs of Group-Living in Mammalian Social Evolution

Mammal social groups vary considerably in size from single individuals to very large herds. In some taxa, these groups are extremely stable, with at least some individuals being members of the same group throughout their lives; in other taxa, groups are unstable, with membership changing by the day. We argue that this variability in grouping patterns reflects a tradeoff between group size as a solution to environmental demands and the costs created by stress-induced infertility (creating an infertility trap). These costs are so steep that, all else equal, they will limit group size in mammals to ∼15 individuals. A species will only be able to live in larger groups if it evolves strategies that mitigate these costs. We suggest that mammals have opted for one of two solutions. One option (fission-fusion herding) is low cost but high risk; the other (bonded social groups) is risk-averse, but costly in terms of cognitive requirements.

The Crucial Role of Mothers and Siblings in Child Survival: Evidence From 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

A considerable body of research has studied the effects of siblings on child mortality through birth intervals. This research has commonly focused on older siblings. We argue that birth intervals with younger siblings may have equal or stronger effects on child mortality, even during a mother's pregnancy. Moreover, we contend that birth interval effects need to be considered only when siblings are coresident. Using longitudinal data from 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems across sub-Saharan Africa, covering more than 560,000 children, we examine the proximate role of siblings and mothers in child mortality. We find that a birth interval of 24 months or more is advantageous for both older and younger siblings. The effect of a younger sibling on child mortality is more pronounced than that of an older sibling and adds to the effect of an older sibling. Moreover, child mortality is particularly low during a mother's subsequent pregnancy, contrasting the shock resulting from a younger sibling's birth. Further, we find that a mother's or sibling's absence from the household results in a higher risk of mortality, and the death of either reduces child survival up to six months before the death.

Does Birth Interval Matter in Under-Five Mortality? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys from Eight Countries in West Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), every 1 in 12 children under five dies every year compared with 1 in 147 children in the high-income regions. Studies have shown an association between birth intervals and pregnancy outcomes such as low birth weight, preterm birth, and intrauterine growth restriction. In this study, we examined the association between birth interval and under-five mortality in eight countries in West Africa. A secondary analysis of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from eight West African countries was carried out. The sample size for this study comprised 52,877 childbearing women (15-49 years). A bivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out and the results were presented as crude odds ratio (cOR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) at 95% confidence interval (CI). Birth interval had a statistically significant independent association with under-five mortality, with children born to mothers who had >2 years birth interval less likely to die before their fifth birthday compared to mothers with ≤2 years birth interval [cOR = 0.56; CI = 0.51 − 0.62], and this persisted after controlling for the covariates [aOR = 0.55; CI = 0.50 − 0.61]. The country-specific results showed that children born to mothers who had >2 years birth interval were less likely to die before the age of five compared to mothers with ≤2 years birth interval in all the eight countries. In terms of the covariates, wealth quintile, mother's age, mother's age at first birth, partner's age, employment status, current pregnancy intention, sex of child, size of child at birth, birth order, type of birth, and contraceptive use also had associations with under-five mortality. We conclude that shorter birth intervals are associated with higher under-five mortality. Other maternal and child characteristics also have associations with under-five mortality. Reproductive health interventions aimed at reducing under-five mortality should focus on lengthening birth intervals. Such interventions should be implemented, taking into consideration the characteristics of women and their children.

Built Environment and HIV Linkage to Care in Rural South Africa

Background

We assessed built environment (residential density, landuse mix and aesthetics) and HIV linkage to care (LTC) among 1,681 (18–49 years-old) residents of 15 Mpumalanga villages, South Africa.

Methods

Multilevel models (linear-binomial) were used for the association between built environment, measured using NEWS for Africa, and LTC from a clinical database of 9 facilities (2015–2018). Additionally, we assessed effect-measure modification by universal test-and-treat policy (UTT).

Results

We observed, a significant association in the adjusted 3-month probability of LTC for residential density (risk difference (RD)%: 5.6, 95%CI: 1.2–10.1), however, no association for land-use mix (RD%: 2.4, 95%CI: −0.4, 5.2) and aesthetics (RD%: −1.2, 95%CI: −4.5–2.2). Among those diagnosed after UTT, residents of high land-use villages were more likely to link-to-care than those of low land-use villages at 12 months (RD%: 4.6, 95%CI: 1.1–8.1, p < 0.04), however, not at 3 months (RD%: 3.0, 95%CI: −2.1–8.0, p > 0.10).

Conclusion

Findings suggest, better built environment conditions (adequate infrastructure, proximity to services etc.) help facilitate LTC. Moreover, UTT appears to have a protective effect on LTC.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival.

FINDINGS

3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

Antenatal depression and anxiety across pregnancy in urban South Africa

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety in pregnancy have negative consequences for women and their offspring. High adversity places pregnant women at increased mental health risk, yet there is a dearth of longitudinal research in these settings. Little is known about the pathways by which these problems emerge or persist in pregnancy.

METHODS

Women were enrolled in a prospective pregnancy cohort in Soweto, South Africa (2014-2016) and assessed using validated measures (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale EPDS ≥13; State Trait Anxiety Index STAI ≥12) in early (T1) and later pregnancy (T2). Data was available for n = 649 women. Multinominal regression modelling was used to determine factors associated with transient versus persistent depression and anxiety across pregnancy. Cross-lagged panel modelling explored direction of effect between depression and anxiety, and stressors.

RESULTS

We found high rates of depression (T1: 27%; T2: 25%) and anxiety (T1: 15%; T2: 17%). Perceiving a partner made one's life harder increased risk of persistent depression (RR 5.92 95% CI [3.0-11.8] p<0.001); family stress increased risk for persistent anxiety (RR 1.71 95% CI [1.1-2.7] p = 0.027). We find evidence of a direct effect of early depression (T1) on later family stress (T2); and early family stress (T1) on later anxiety (T2).

LIMITATIONS

We used screening measures of depression and anxiety rather than clinical interviews.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies which focus only on late pregnancy may underestimate risk. Early identification, in the first trimester, is critical for prevention and treatment. Partner and family stressors are a key intervention target.

Household composition and child health in Botswana

Background

There is a general lack of research on children’s household experiences and child health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examines the relationship between household composition, stunting and diarrhoea prevalence among children younger than 5 years of age in Botswana.

Methods

The analysis uses data from the 2007 Botswana Family Health Survey (BFHS) and multilevel logistic regression models.

Results

The findings indicate that stunting varies by whom the child lives with. Stunting is higher among children living with no parents compared to those living with both parents. Stunting is also high among children living with unrelated household members. Similarly, children in households with a mother-only and with a grandparent present, have a higher level of stunting compared to those living with both parents. Conversely, living with an aunt and living with other relatives, protects against stunting. The findings on diarrhoea prevalence show that children living in mother-only households and those living with no parents are less likely to have diarrhoea than those living with both parents. Also, across all households, those who are more affluent have lower rates of child stunting and diarrhoea than those which are more deprived. Finally, the findings show a clustering effect at the household level for both stunting and diarrhoea prevalence.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that policies and programs aimed at reducing stunting and diarrhoea may work best if they target households and other adults co-residing in homes with children besides biological parents. Further, children who live in poorer households deserve special attention.

Relationship between children's cognitions and later educational progress in rural South Africa: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) who remain in school have better health and employment outcomes. South Africa, like many LMICs, has a secondary school completion rate under 50%, leaving room for improvement if we can identify factors that affect educational attainment. This is the first longitudinal study to examine the effects of childhood mental health and cognitions on educational outcomes in LMIC.

METHODS

Using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and Cognitive Triad Inventory for Children (CTI-C), we assessed the psychological functioning and cognition of children aged 10-12 in rural South Africa. We linked that data with measures of educational progress collected 5 years later and examined associations between educational progress and (1) behavioural and emotional problems and (2) cognitive interpretations, adjusting for possible confounders.

RESULTS

Educational data were available for 443 individuals. 92% (n=408) of individuals had advanced three or fewer grades in 7 years. Having more positive cognitions (CTIC-C) was positively associated with progressing at least three grade levels (adjusted OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.79). There was no evidence for an association between emotional and behavioural problems (SDQ) and educational progress (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.11).

CONCLUSION

If children in LMICs can develop more positive perspectives, they may be able to stay in school longer. Cognitions can be modified, and future studies should test interventions that work to improve cognition in childhood, guided, for example, by principles of cognitive-behavioural therapy.

Pregnancy intervals after stillbirth, neonatal death and spontaneous abortion and the risk of an adverse outcome in the next pregnancy in rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Studies have revealed associations between preceding short and long birth-to-birth or birth-to-pregnancy intervals and poor pregnancy outcomes. Most of these studies, however, have examined the effect of intervals that began with live births. Using data from Bangladesh, we examined the effect of inter-outcome intervals (IOI) starting with a non-live birth or neonatal death, on outcomes in the next pregnancy. Pregnancy spacing behaviors in rural northeast Bangladesh have changed little since 2004.

METHODS

We analyzed pregnancy histories for married women aged 15-49 years who had outcomes between 2000 and 2006 in Sylhet, Bangladesh. We examined the effects of the preceding outcome and the IOI length on the risk of stillbirth, neonatal death and spontaneous abortion using multinomial logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Data included 64,897 pregnancy outcomes from 33,495 mothers. Inter-outcome intervals of 27-50 months and live births were baseline comparators. Stillbirths followed by IOI's <=6 months, 7-14 months or overall <=14 months had increased risks for spontaneous abortion with adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRR) and 95% confidence intervals = 29.6 (8.09, 108.26), 1.84 (0.84, 4.02) and 2.53 (1.19, 5.36), respectively. Stillbirths followed by IOIs 7-14 months had aRRR 2.00 (1.39, 2.88) for stillbirths. Neonatal deaths followed by IOIs <=6 months had aRRR 28.2 (8.59, 92.63) for spontaneous abortion. Neonatal deaths followed by IOIs 7-14 and 15-26 months had aRRRs 3.08 (1.82, 5.22) and 2.32 (1.38, 3.91), respectively, for stillbirths; and aRRRs 2.81 (2.06, 3.84) and 1.70 (1.24, 3.84), respectively, for neonatal deaths. Spontaneous abortions followed by IOIs <=6 months and 7-14 months had, respectively, aRRRs 23.21 (10.34, 52.13) and 1.80 (0.98, 3.33) for spontaneous abortion.

CONCLUSION

In rural northeast Bangladesh, short inter-outcome intervals after stillbirth, neonatal death and spontaneous abortion were associated with a high risk of a similar outcome in the next pregnancy. These findings are aligned with other studies from Bangladesh. Two studies from similar settings have found benefits of waiting six months before conceiving again, suggesting that incorporating this advice into programs should be considered. Further research is warranted to confirm these findings.

Investigating risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014

INTRODUCTION

Despite global progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of under-five year old deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where four out of five child deaths occur. Substantial progress has been made in improving sanitation, controlling communicable diseases and the spread of HIV in most parts of the world. However, significant strides to address some key risk factors related to under-five mortality are still needed in rural SSA if they are to attain relevant 2030 SDG targets. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014. Some of the key risk factors investigated are, for example: household wealth, source of drinking water, distance to the national road and birth order.

METHODS

We conducted a statistical analysis of 759 births from a population-based cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, from 2000 to 2014. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to identify the risk factors and key socio-demographic correlates of under-five mortality leveraging the longitudinal structure of the population cohort.

RESULTS

Child mortality rates declined by 80 per cent from 2000 to 2014, from >140 per 1,000 persons in years 2001-2003 to 20 per 1,000 persons in the year 2014. The highest under-five mortality rate was recorded in 2002/2003, which decreased following the start of antiretroviral therapy rollout in 2003/4. The results indicated that under-five and infant mortality are significantly associated with a low wealth index of 1.49 (1.007-2.48) for under-fives and 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for infants. Children and infants with a lower wealth index had a significantly increased risk of mortality as compared to those with a high wealth index. Other significant factors included: source of household drinking water (borehole) 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for under-fives and 2.98 (1.62-5.49) for infants; having an HIV positive mother 4.22 (2.68-6.65) for under-fives and 3.26 (1.93-5.51) for infants, and period of death 9.13 (5.70-14.6) for under-fives and 1.28 (0.75-2.20) for infants. Wealth index had the largest population attributable fraction of 25.4 per cent.

CONCLUSIONS

The research findings show a substantial overall reduction in under-five mortality since 2003. Unsafe household water sources and having an HIV-positive mother were associated with an increased risk of under-five mortality in this rural setting. The significant risk factors identified align well with the SDG 2030 targets for reducing child mortality, which include improved nutrition, sanitation, hygiene and reduced HIV infections. Current trajectories suggest that there is some hope for meeting the 2030 SGD targets in rural South Africa and the region if the identified significant risk factors are adequately addressed.

Perceived quality of life and living arrangements among older rural South Africans: do all households fare the same?

This study explores how living arrangements influence perceived quality of life in an elderly population in rural South Africa. We use data from the longitudinal World Health Organization Study of Global Ageing and Adult Health Survey (WHO-SAGE) and from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). On average, older men and women who reside in single-generation and complex-linked multigenerational households report worse quality of life than those in two-generation and linear-linked multigenerational households. However, after controlling for prior wellbeing status, we find living arrangements to have a significant impact on women's perceived quality of life only, and that it is moderated by age. We conclude that not all multigenerational arrangements are protective of older adults’ wellbeing and highlight the gendered impact of living arrangements on quality of life. These results suggest the necessity to understand how living arrangements influence the social roles of older adults and change with age.

Living Arrangements, Disability and Gender of Older Adults Among Rural South Africa

Objective

A limited understanding exists of the relationship between disability and older persons' living arrangements in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examine the associations between living arrangements, disability, and gender for individuals older than 50 years in rural South Africa.

Method

Using the Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) survey and Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data, we explore older persons' self-reported disability by living arrangements and gender, paying particular attention to various multigenerational arrangements.

Results

Controlling for past disability status, a significant relationship between living arrangements and current disability remains, but is moderated by gender. Older persons in households where they may be more "productive" report higher levels of disability; there are fewer differences in women's than men's reported disability levels across living arrangement categories.

Discussion

This study underscores the need to examine living arrangements and disability through a gendered lens, with particular attention to heterogeneity among multigenerational living arrangements. Some living arrangements may take a greater toll on older persons than others. Important policy implications for South Africa and other LMICs emerge among vibrant debates about the role of social welfare programs in improving the health of older individuals.

Hyak mortality monitoring system: innovative sampling and estimation methods - proof of concept by simulation

Traditionally health statistics are derived from civil and/or vital registration. Civil registration in low- to middle-income countries varies from partial coverage to essentially nothing at all. Consequently the state of the art for public health information in low- to middle-income countries is efforts to combine or triangulate data from different sources to produce a more complete picture across both time and space - data amalgamation. Data sources amenable to this approach include sample surveys, sample registration systems, health and demographic surveillance systems, administrative records, census records, health facility records and others. We propose a new statistical framework for gathering health and population data - Hyak - that leverages the benefits of sampling and longitudinal, prospective surveillance to create a cheap, accurate, sustainable monitoring platform. Hyak has three fundamental components: Data amalgamation: A sampling and surveillance component that organizes two or more data collection systems to work together: (1) data from HDSS with frequent, intense, linked, prospective follow-up and (2) data from sample surveys conducted in large areas surrounding the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites using informed sampling so as to capture as many events as possible;Cause of death: Verbal autopsy to characterize the distribution of deaths by cause at the population level; andSocioeconomic status (SES): Measurement of SES in order to characterize poverty and wealth. We conduct a simulation study of the informed sampling component of Hyak based on the Agincourt HDSS site in South Africa. Compared with traditional cluster sampling, Hyak's informed sampling captures more deaths, and when combined with an estimation model that includes spatial smoothing, produces estimates of both mortality counts and mortality rates that have lower variance and small bias.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13: a population surveillance analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the effects of socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes is important to implement specific preventive actions. We assessed socioeconomic disparities in mortality indicators in a rural South African population over the period 2001-13.

METHODS

We used data from 21 villages of the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We calculated the probabilities of death from birth to age 5 years and from age 15 to 60 years, life expectancy at birth, and cause-specific and age-specific mortality by sex (not in children <5 years), time period, and socioeconomic status (household wealth) quintile for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes, non-communicable diseases, and injury. We also quantified differences with relative risk ratios and relative and slope indices of inequality.

FINDINGS

Between 2001 and 2013, 10 414 deaths were registered over 1 058 538 person-years of follow-up, meaning the overall crude mortality was 9·8 deaths per 1000 person-years. We found significant socioecomonic status gradients for mortality and life expectancy at birth, with outcomes improving with increasing socioeconomic status. An inverse relation was seen for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality and socioeconomic status that persisted from 2001 to 2013. Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased over time in both sexes, and injury was an important cause of death in men and boys. Neither of these causes of death, however, showed consistent significant associations with household socioeconomic status.

INTERPRETATION

The poorest people in the population continue to bear a high burden of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality, despite free antiretroviral therapy being made available from public health facilities. Associations between socioeconomic status and increasing burden of mortality from non-communicable diseases is likely to become prominent. Integrated strategies are needed to improve access to and uptake of HIV testing, care, and treatment, and management of non-communicable diseases in the poorest populations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, South African Medical Research Council, and University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.

Young women's perceptions of transactional sex and sexual agency: a qualitative study in the context of rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Evidence shows that HIV prevalence among young women in sub-Saharan Africa increases almost five-fold between ages 15 and 24, with almost a quarter of young women infected by their early-to mid-20s. Transactional sex or material exchange for sex is a relationship dynamic that has been shown to have an association with HIV infection.

METHODS

Using five focus group discussions and 19 in-depth interviews with young women enrolled in the HPTN 068 conditional cash transfer trial (2011-2015), this qualitative study explores young women's perceptions of transactional sex within the structural and cultural context of rural South Africa. The analysis also considers the degree to which young women perceive themselves as active agents in such relationships and whether they recognise a link between transactional sex and HIV risk.

RESULTS

Young women believe that securing their own financial resources will ultimately improve their bargaining position in their sexual relationships, and open doors to a more financially independent future. Findings suggest there is a nuanced relationship between sex, love and gifts: money has symbolic meaning, and money transfers, when framed as gifts, indicates a young woman's value and commitment from the man. This illustrates the complexity of transactional sex; the way it is positioned in the HIV literature ignores that "exchanges" serve as fulcrums around which romantic relationships are organised. Finally, young women express agency in their choice of partner, but their agency weakens once they are in a relationship characterised by exchange, which may undermine their ability to translate perceived agency into STI and HIV risk reduction efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

This research underscores the need to recognise that transactional sex is embedded in adolescent romantic relationships, but that certain aspects make young women particularly vulnerable to HIV. This is especially true in situations of restricted choice and circumscribed employment opportunities. HIV prevention educational programmes could be coupled with income generation trainings, in order to leverage youth resilience and protective skills within the confines of difficult economic and social circumstances. This would provide young women with the knowledge and means to more successfully navigate safer sexual relationships.

The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years

Background

Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.

Methods

The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.

Results

Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.

Conclusions

Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Spatial-temporal dynamics and structural determinants of child and maternal mortality in a rural, high HIV burdened South African population, 2000-2014: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Child (infant and under-5) and maternal mortality rates are key indicators for assessing the health status of populations. South Africa's maternal and child mortality rates are high, and the country mirrors the continental trend of slow progress towards its Millennium Development Goals. Rural areas are often more affected regarding child and maternal mortalities, specifically in areas with a high HIV burden. This study aims to understand the factors affecting child and maternal mortality in the Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Area (DSA) from 2003 to 2014 towards developing tailored interventions to reduce the deaths in resource poor settings. This will be done by identifying child and maternal mortality 'hotspots' and their associated risk factors.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This retrospective study will use data for 2003-2014 from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. All homesteads in the study area have been mapped to an accuracy of <2 m, all deaths recorded and the assigned cause of death established using a verbal autopsy interview. Advanced spatial-temporal clustering techniques (both regular (Kulldorff) and irregular (FleXScan)) will be used to identify mortality 'hotspots'. Various advanced statistical modelling approaches will be tested and used to identify significant risk factors for child and maternal mortality. Differences in attributability and risk factors profiles in identified 'hotspots' will be assessed to enable tailored intervention guidance/development. This multicomponent study will enable a refined intervention model to be developed for typical rural populations with a high HIV burden.

ETHICS

Ethical approval was received from the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (BREC) of the University of KwaZulu-Natal (BE 169/15).

Assessing Changes in Household Socioeconomic Status in Rural South Africa, 2001-2013: A Distributional Analysis Using Household Asset Indicators

Understanding the distribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and its temporal dynamics within a population is critical to ensure that policies and interventions adequately and equitably contribute to the well-being and life chances of all individuals. This study assesses the dynamics of SES in a typical rural South African setting over the period 2001-2013 using data on household assets from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Three SES indices, an absolute index, principal component analysis index and multiple correspondence analysis index, are constructed from the household asset indicators. Relative distribution methods are then applied to the indices to assess changes over time in the distribution of SES with special focus on location and shape shifts. Results show that the proportion of households that own assets associated with greater modern wealth has substantially increased over time. In addition, relative distributions in all three indices show that the median SES index value has shifted up and the distribution has become less polarized and is converging towards the middle. However, the convergence is larger from the upper tail than from the lower tail, which suggests that the improvement in SES has been slower for poorer households. The results also show persistent ethnic differences in SES with households of former Mozambican refugees being at a disadvantage. From a methodological perspective, the study findings demonstrate the comparability of the easy-to-compute absolute index to other SES indices constructed using more advanced statistical techniques in assessing household SES.

Who Benefits--Or Does not--From South Africa's Old Age Pension? Evidence from Characteristics of Rural Pensioners and Non-Pensioners

Social protection grants play a critical role in survival and livelihoods of elderly individuals in South Africa. Rarely is it possible to assess how well a social program reaches its target population. Using a 2010 survey and Agincourt Health Demographic Surveillance System census data we conduct multivariate logistic regression to predict pension receipt in rural South Africa. We find only 80% of age-eligible individuals report pension receipt. Pension non-recipients tend to be male, have poor socio-economic status, live in smaller households, be of Mozambican origin, and have poorer physical function; while older persons living in households receiving other grants are more likely to report pension receipt. We conclude that a reservoir of older persons exists who meet eligibility criteria but who are not yet receiving pensions. Ensuring that they and their households are properly linked to all available social services—whether for child or old-age social grants—is likely to have beneficial and synergistic effects.

Trends in contraceptive use and distribution of births with demographic risk factors in Ethiopia: a sub-national analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence shows that family planning contributes to the decline in child mortality by decreasing the proportions of births that are considered high risk. The main objective of the present analysis was to examine the trends in use of modern contraceptives and their relationship with total fertility rate (TFR) and distribution of births by demographic risk factors as defined by mother's age, birth interval, and birth order at the sub-national level in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

Analyses used data from three Demographic and Health Surveys in Ethiopia (2000, 2005, and 2011), which are nationally representative data collected through questionnaire-based interviews from women 15-49 using a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling. First, we examined the trends of and relationship between TFR (in the 3 years before each survey) and modern contraceptive use among currently married women in all administrative regions over the time period 2000-2011 using linear regression analysis. We also examined the relationship between birth risks and under-five mortality using the no-risk group as a reference. Finally, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between the effect of being a resident in one of the regions and having an avoidable birth risk (which includes births to mothers younger than 18 and older than 34 years, birth interval of less than 24 months and birth order higher than third) after adjusting for select covariates including wealth, educational status, residence, religion and exposure to family planning information.

RESULTS

Sub-national-level regression analysis showed an inverse relationship between modern contraceptive use among married women and the TFR, with an average decrease of TFR by one child per woman associated with a 13 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use between 2000 and 2011. A high percentage of births in Ethiopia (62%) fall in one of the risk categories (excluding first births), with wide regional variation from 55% in Gambela to 72% in the Somali region. The multivariate analysis showed women living in the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions had significantly higher odds of having avoidable birth risk compared to those in Addis Ababa after controlling for observed covariates. The trend analysis showed there was a significant drop in the proportion of births from women above 34 years between 2000 and 2011. There was no significant decline in births to women less than 18 years between 2000 and 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of births in Ethiopia fall in one of the risk categories, with substantial region-to-region variation in the percentage of births with avoidable risk factors, Somali and Afar having the highest burden. The analysis indicated that births in the three regions had significantly higher odds of having one of the avoidable risk factors compared to Addis Ababa, and we suggest family planning programmes need to identify differentials of modern contraceptive use at the sub-national level in order to better address coverage and equity issues.

The impacts of maternal mortality and cause of death on children's risk of dying in rural South Africa: evidence from a population based surveillance study (1992-2013)

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and child survival are closely linked. This study contributes evidence on the impact of maternal death on children's risk of dying in an HIV-endemic population in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used data for children younger than 10 years from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1992 - 2013). We used discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's risk of dying when they experienced a maternal death compared to children whose mother survived (N=3,740,992 child months). We also examined variation in risk due to cause of maternal death. We defined mother's survival status as early maternal death (during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of most recent childbirth or identified cause of death), late maternal death (within 43-365 days of most recent childbirth), any other death, and mothers who survived.

RESULTS

Children who experienced an early maternal death were at 15 times the risk of dying (RRR 15.2; 95% CI 8.3-27.9) compared to children whose mother survived. Children under 1 month whose mother died an early (p=0.002) maternal death were at increased risk of dying compared to older children. Children whose mothers died of an HIV/AIDS or TB-related early maternal death were at 29 times the risk of dying compared to children with surviving mothers (RRR 29.2; 95% CI 11.7-73.1). The risk of these children dying was significantly higher than those children whose mother died of a HIV/AIDS or TB-related non-maternal death (p=0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes further evidence on the impact of a mother's death on child survival in a poor, rural setting with high HIV prevalence. The intersecting epidemics of maternal mortality and HIV/AIDS - especially in sub-Saharan Africa - have profound implications for maternal and child health and well-being. Such evidence can help guide public and primary health care practice and interventions.

Health effects of single motherhood on children in sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Although progress has been made toward reducing child morbidity and mortality globally, a large proportion of children in sub-Saharan Africa still die before age five and many suffer chronic malnutrition. This study investigated the influence of single motherhood on stunting and under-5 mortality in Cameroon, Nigeria and Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Particular attention was paid to the influence of mother's economic resources, parental care and health behaviour on the difference in children's health in single and two-parent families.

METHODS

Data were obtained from most recent Demographic and Health Surveys in Cameroon (2011), Nigeria (2008) and DRC (2007). The sample included women aged 15-49 years old and their under-5 children 11,748 in Cameroon, 28,100 in Nigeria, and 8,999 in DRC. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard analysis were used to estimate stunting and under-5 mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

The result showed that compared with children whose mothers were in union, children of single mothers who were not widows were more likely to be stunted (OR 1.79 p < 0.01 in Cameroon and 1.69 p < .01 in DRC). Economic resources and parental care significantly influenced the higher odds of stunting in single mother households in Cameroon and DRC. Relative to children of mothers in union, the risk of under-5 mortality in single mother families was higher in the three countries (HR 1.40 p < .05 in Cameroon, 1.27 p < 0.10 in DRC, 1.55 p < .01 in Nigeria). Economic resources, parental care and health behaviour accounted for the difference in Nigeria and Cameroon; in DRC, only economic resources had marginal influence.

CONCLUSIONS

Single motherhood is a risk factor for children's nutritional status and chances of survival before age 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa. To achieve improved reduction in children's exposure to stunting and under-5 mortality, there is the need for public health interventions targeted at single mother households in sub-Saharan Africa.

Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa

BACKGROUND

The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data.

OBJECTIVE

To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action.

DESIGN

Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system.

CONCLUSIONS

The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.

The unfolding counter-transition in rural South Africa: mortality and cause of death, 1994-2009

The HIV pandemic has led to dramatic increases and inequalities in adult mortality, and the diffusion of antiretroviral treatment, together with demographic and socioeconomic shifts in sub-Saharan Africa, has further changed mortality patterns. We describe all-cause and cause-specific mortality patterns in rural South Africa, analyzing data from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system from 1994 to 2009 for those aged 5 years and older. Mortality increased during that period, particularly after 2002 for ages 30-69. HIV/AIDS and TB deaths increased and recently plateaued at high levels in people under age 60. Noncommunicable disease deaths increased among those under 60, and recently also increased among those over 60. There was an inverse gradient between mortality and household SES, particularly for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and TB and noncommunicable diseases. A smaller and less consistent gradient emerged for deaths due to other communicable diseases. Deaths due to injuries remained an important mortality risk for males but did not vary by SES. Rural South Africa continues to have a high burden of HIV/AIDS and TB mortality while deaths from noncommunicable diseases have increased, and both of these cause-categories show social inequalities in mortality.