Cohort Profile: Estonian Biobank of the Estonian Genome Center, University of Tartu

A novel framework for assessing causal effect of microbiome on health: long-term antibiotic usage as an instrument

Assessing causality is undoubtedly one of the key questions in microbiome studies for the upcoming years. Since randomized trials in human subjects are often unethical or difficult to pursue, analytical methods to derive causal effects from observational data deserve attention. As simple covariate adjustment is not likely to account for all potential confounders, the idea of instrumental variable (IV) analysis is worth exploiting. Here we propose a novel framework of antibiotic instrumental variable regression (AB-IVR) for estimating the causal relationships between microbiome and various diseases. We rely on the recent studies showing that antibiotic treatment has a cumulative long-term effect on the microbiome, resulting in individuals with higher antibiotic usage to have a more perturbed microbiome. We apply the AB-IVR method on the Estonian Biobank data and show that the microbiome has a causal role in numerous diseases including migraine, depression and irritable bowel syndrome. We show with a plethora of sensitivity analyses that the identified causal effects are robust and propose ways for further methodological developments.

An in-depth review of AI-powered advancements in cancer drug discovery

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and genomics is redefining cancer drug discovery by facilitating the development of personalized and effective therapies. This review examines the transformative role of AI technologies, including deep learning and advanced data analytics, in accelerating key stages of the drug discovery process: target identification, drug design, clinical trial optimization, and drug response prediction. Cutting-edge tools such as DrugnomeAI and PandaOmics have made substantial contributions to therapeutic target identification, while AI's predictive capabilities are driving personalized treatment strategies. Additionally, advancements like AlphaFold highlight AI's capacity to address intricate challenges in drug development. However, the field faces significant challenges, including the management of large-scale genomic datasets and ethical concerns surrounding AI deployment in healthcare. This review underscores the promise of data-centric AI approaches and emphasizes the necessity of continued innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration. Together, AI and genomics are charting a path toward more precise, efficient, and transformative cancer therapeutics.

Biobanking with genetics shapes precision medicine and global health

Precision medicine provides patients with access to personally tailored treatments based on individual-level data. However, developing personalized therapies requires analyses with substantial statistical power to map genetic and epidemiologic associations that ultimately create models informing clinical decisions. As one solution, biobanks have emerged as large-scale, longitudinal cohort studies with long-term storage of biological specimens and health information, including electronic health records and participant survey responses. By providing access to individual-level data for genotype-phenotype mapping efforts, pharmacogenomic studies, polygenic risk score assessments and rare variant analyses, biobanks support ongoing and future precision medicine research. Notably, due in part to the geographical enrichment of biobanks in Western Europe and North America, European ancestries have become disproportionately over-represented in precision medicine research. Herein, we provide a genetics-focused review of biobanks from around the world that are in pursuit of supporting precision medicine. We discuss the limitations of their designs, ongoing efforts to diversify genomics research and strategies to maximize the benefits of research leveraging biobanks for all.

Role of primary and secondary care data in atrial fibrillation ascertainment: impact on risk factor associations, patient management, and mortality in UK Biobank

AIMS

Electronic healthcare records (EHR) are at the forefront of advances in epidemiological research emerging from large-scale population biobanks and clinical studies. Hospital admissions, diagnoses, and procedures (HADP) data are often used to identify disease cases. However, this may result in incomplete ascertainment of chronic conditions such as atrial fibrillation (AF), which are principally managed in primary care (PC). We examined the relevance of EHR sources for AF ascertainment, and the implications for risk factor associations, patient management, and outcomes in UK Biobank.

METHODS AND RESULTS

UK Biobank is a prospective study, with HADP and PC records available for 230 000 participants (to 2016). AF cases were ascertained in three groups: from PC records only (PC-only), HADP only (HADP-only), or both (PC + HADP). Conventional statistical methods were used to describe differences between groups in terms of characteristics, risk factor associations, ascertainment timing, rates of anticoagulation, and post-AF stroke and death. A total of 7136 incident AF cases were identified during 7 years median follow-up (PC-only: 22%, PC + HADP: 49%, HADP-only: 29%). There was a median lag of 1.3 years between cases ascertained in PC and subsequently in HADP. AF cases in each of the ascertainment groups had comparable baseline demographic characteristics. However, AF cases identified in hospital data alone had a higher prevalence of cardiometabolic comorbidities and lower rates of subsequent anticoagulation (PC-only: 44%, PC + HADP: 48%, HADP-only: 10%, P < 0.0001) than other groups. HADP-only cases also had higher rates of death [PC-only: 9.3 (6.8, 12.7), PC + HADP: 23.4 (20.5, 26.6), HADP-only: 81.2 (73.8, 89.2) events per 1000 person-years, P < 0.0001] compared to other groups.

CONCLUSION

Integration of data from primary care with that from hospital records has a substantial impact on AF ascertainment, identifying a third more cases than hospital records alone. However, about a third of AF cases recorded in hospital were not present in the primary care records, and these cases had lower rates of anticoagulation, as well as higher mortality from both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes. Initiatives aimed at enhancing information exchange of clinically confirmed AF between healthcare settings have the potential to benefit patient management and AF-related outcomes at an individual and population level. This research underscores the importance of access and integration of de-identified comprehensive EHR data for a definitive understanding of patient trajectories, and for robust epidemiological and translational research into AF.

A Litmus Test for Confounding in Polygenic Scores

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are being rapidly adopted for trait prediction in the clinic and beyond. PGSs are often thought of as capturing the direct genetic effect of one's genotype on their phenotype. However, because PGSs are constructed from population-level associations, they are influenced by factors other than direct genetic effects, including stratification, assortative mating, and dynastic effects ("SAD effects"). Our interpretation and application of PGSs may hinge on the relative impact of SAD effects, since they may often be environmentally or culturally mediated. We developed a method that estimates the proportion of variance in a PGS (in a given sample) that is driven by direct effects, SAD effects, and their covariance. We leverage a comparison of a PGS of interest based on a standard GWAS with a PGS based on a sibling GWAS-which is largely immune to SAD effects-to quantify the relative contribution of each type of effect to variance in the PGS of interest. Our method, Partitioning Genetic Scores Using Siblings (PGSUS, pron. "Pegasus"), breaks down variance components further by axes of genetic ancestry, allowing for a nuanced interpretation of SAD effects. In particular, PGSUS can detect stratification along major axes of ancestry as well as SAD variance that is "isotropic" with respect to axes of ancestry. Applying PGSUS, we found evidence of stratification in PGSs constructed using large meta-analyses of height and educational attainment as well as in a range of PGSs constructed using the UK Biobank. In some instances, a given PGS appears to be stratified along a major axis of ancestry in one prediction sample but not in another (for example, in comparisons of prediction in samples from different countries, or in ancient DNA vs. contemporary samples). Finally, we show that different approaches for adjustment for population structure in GWASs have distinct advantages with respect to mitigation of ancestry-axis-specific and isotropic SAD variance in PGS. Our study illustrates how family-based designs can be combined with standard population-based designs to guide the interpretation and application of genomic predictors.

Developing and validating a comprehensive polygenic risk score to enhance keratoconus risk prediction

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop and validate a comprehensive polygenic risk score (PRS) for keratoconus, enhancing the predictive accuracy for identifying individuals at increased risk, which is crucial for preventing keratoconus-associated visual impairment such as post-Laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) ectasia.

METHODS

We applied a multi-trait analysis approach (MTAG) to genome-wide association study data on keratoconus and quantitative keratoconus-related traits and used this to construct PRS models for keratoconus risk using several PRS methodologies. We evaluated the predictive performance of the PRSs in two biobanks: Estonian Biobank (EstBB; 375 keratoconus cases and 17 902 controls) and UK Biobank (UKB: 34 keratoconus cases and 1000 controls). Scores were compared using the area under the curve (AUC) and odds ratios (ORs) for various PRS models.

RESULTS

The PRS models demonstrated significant predictive capabilities in EstBB, with the SBayesRC model achieving the highest OR of 2.28 per standard deviation increase in PRS, with a model containing age, sex and PRS showing good predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.72). In UKB, we found that adding the best-performing PRS to a model containing corneal measurements increased the AUC from 0.84 to 0.88 (P = 0.012 for difference), with an OR of 4.26 per standard deviation increase in the PRS. These models showed improved predictive capability compared to previous keratoconus PRS.

CONCLUSION

The PRS models enhanced prediction of keratoconus risk, even with corneal measurements, showing potential for clinical use to identify individuals at high risk of keratoconus, and potentially help reduce the risk of post-LASIK ectasia.

Augmenting Circadian Biology Research With Data Science

The nature of biological research is changing, driven by the emergence of big data, and new computational models to parse out the information therein. Traditional methods remain the core of biological research but are increasingly either augmented or sometimes replaced by emerging data science tools. This presents a profound opportunity for those circadian researchers interested in incorporating big data and related analyses into their plans. Here, we discuss the emergence of novel sources of big data that could be used to gain real-world insights into circadian biology. We further discuss technical considerations for the biologist interested in including data science approaches in their research. We conversely discuss the biological considerations for data scientists so that they can more easily identify the nuggets of biological rhythms insight that might too easily be lost through application of standard data science approaches done without an appreciation of the way biological rhythms shape the variance of complex data objects. Our hope is that this review will make bridging disciplines in both directions (biology to computational and vice versa) easier. There has never been such rapid growth of cheap, accessible, real-world research opportunities in biology as now; collaborations between biological experts and skilled data scientists have the potential to mine out new insights with transformative impact.

The current landscape of personalised preventive approaches for non-communicable diseases: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Personalised prevention offers a promising tool to reduce the impact of non-communicable diseases, which represent a growing health burden worldwide. However, to support the adoption of this innovation it is needed to clarify the current state of available evidence in this area. This work aims to provide an overview of recent publications on personalised prevention for chronic conditions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A scoping review of scientific literature from Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and grey literature was conducted. Eligible articles included prospective primary studies and clinical practice directives on personalised preventive approaches for chronic diseases published between January 2017 to December 2023. The review followed Arksey-O'Malley guidelines and PRISMA-ScR checklist.

RESULTS

We identified 121 publications including 60 primary cohort studies and 61 clinical practice directives. We extracted 249 personalised preventive approaches, 27% in primary prevention, 27% in secondary prevention, and 46% in tertiary prevention. In primary prevention, 50% of the 67 approaches were from cohort studies, mainly targeting cardiovascular diseases, and 50% from directives primarily focused on cancer. Secondary prevention included 66 approaches, 73% from directives mainly concerning breast cancer. Tertiary prevention included 116 approaches, evenly distributed among the two publication types and focusing mostly on cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Lastly, tertiary prevention is the most represented level of prevention both in primary research studies and directives (54% and 41% respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights a significant focus on personalised prevention in oncology in the past few years, with numerous recently issued clinical practice directives. We identified substantial original research in personalised primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, indicating growing interest in the field. However, the distribution of primary studies and directives across the three preventive levels anticipate challenges in generating evidence of clinical utility in primary and secondary prevention, with most approaches falling under tertiary prevention.

Twenty-Five Years of Evolution and Hurdles in Electronic Health Records and Interoperability in Medical Research: Comprehensive Review

BACKGROUND

Electronic health records (EHRs) facilitate the accessibility and sharing of patient data among various health care providers, contributing to more coordinated and efficient care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to summarize the evolution of secondary use of EHRs and their interoperability in medical research over the past 25 years.

METHODS

We conducted an extensive literature search in the PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases using the keywords Electronic health record and Electronic medical record in the title or abstract and Medical research in all fields from 2000 to 2024. Specific terms were applied to different time periods.

RESULTS

The review yielded 2212 studies, all of which were then screened and processed in a structured manner. Of these 2212 studies, 2102 (93.03%) were included in the review analysis, of which 1079 (51.33%) studies were from 2000 to 2009, 582 (27.69%) were from 2010 to 2019, 251 (11.94%) were from 2020 to 2023, and 190 (9.04%) were from 2024.

CONCLUSIONS

The evolution of EHRs marks an important milestone in health care's journey toward integrating technology and medicine. From early documentation practices to the sophisticated use of artificial intelligence and big data analytics today, EHRs have become central to improving patient care, enhancing public health surveillance, and advancing medical research.

Fecal microbial load is a major determinant of gut microbiome variation and a confounder for disease associations

The microbiota in individual habitats differ in both relative composition and absolute abundance. While sequencing approaches determine the relative abundances of taxa and genes, they do not provide information on their absolute abundances. Here, we developed a machine-learning approach to predict fecal microbial loads (microbial cells per gram) solely from relative abundance data. Applying our prediction model to a large-scale metagenomic dataset (n = 34,539), we demonstrated that microbial load is the major determinant of gut microbiome variation and is associated with numerous host factors, including age, diet, and medication. We further found that for several diseases, changes in microbial load, rather than the disease condition itself, more strongly explained alterations in patients' gut microbiome. Adjusting for this effect substantially reduced the statistical significance of the majority of disease-associated species. Our analysis reveals that the fecal microbial load is a major confounder in microbiome studies, highlighting its importance for understanding microbiome variation in health and disease.

Review on GPU accelerated methods for genome-wide SNP-SNP interactions

Detecting genome-wide SNP-SNP interactions (epistasis) efficiently is essential to harnessing the vast data now available from modern biobanks. With millions of SNPs and genetic information from hundreds of thousands of individuals, researchers are positioned to uncover new insights into complex disease pathways. However, this data scale brings significant computational and statistical challenges. To address these, recent approaches leverage GPU-based parallel computing for high-throughput, cost-effective analysis and refine algorithms to improve time and memory efficiency. In this survey, we systematically review GPU-accelerated methods for exhaustive epistasis detection, detailing the statistical models used and the computational strategies employed to enhance performance. Our findings indicate substantial speedups with GPU implementations over traditional CPU approaches. We conclude that while GPU-based solutions hold promise for advancing genomic research, continued innovation in both algorithm design and hardware optimization is necessary to meet future data challenges in the field.

Genome-wide association study of anterior uveitis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The purpose of this study is to define genetic factors associated with anterior uveitis through genome-wide association study (GWAS).

METHODS

In this GWAS meta-analysis, we combined data from the FinnGen, Estonian Biobank and UK Biobank with a total of 12 205 anterior uveitis cases and 917 145 controls. We performed a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to investigate associations across phenotypes and traits. We also evaluated genetic correlations of anterior uveitis.

RESULTS

We identified six anterior uveitis-associated loci. Genome-wide significant (p<5 × 10-8) associations were identified for the first time at three loci (innate immunity activator (INAVA), nucleotide-binding domain, leucine-rich repeat family, pyrin domain containing 3 and nitric oxide synthase 2). We detected associations at three loci previously reported to be associated with uveitis (endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase 1 (ERAP1), the trinucleotide repeat containing 18 (TNRC18) and the HLA region) and also replicated associations at two loci previously associated with acute anterior uveitis (IL23R and HDAC2-AS2). In PheWAS, we further detected that lead single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at three of the anterior uveitis-associated loci (ERAP1, INAVA and TNRC18) are associated with other immunity-related phenotypes, including ankylosing spondylitis and inflammatory bowel disease. Additionally, we detected a moderate genetic correlation between anterior uveitis and inflammatory bowel disease (rg =0.39, p=8 × 10-5).

CONCLUSION

We identified six anterior uveitis-associated loci, including three novel loci with genome-wide significance. Our findings deepen our understanding of the genetic basis of anterior uveitis and the genetic connections between anterior uveitis and immune-related disorders, providing a foundation for further research and potential therapeutic interventions.

Genome-wide meta-analyses of non-response to antidepressants identify novel loci and potential drugs

Antidepressants exhibit a considerable variation in efficacy, and increasing evidence suggests that individual genetics contribute to antidepressant treatment response. Here, we combined data on antidepressant non-response measured using rating scales for depressive symptoms, questionnaires of treatment effect, and data from electronic health records, to increase statistical power to detect genomic loci associated with non-response to antidepressants in a total sample of 135,471 individuals prescribed antidepressants (25,255 non-responders and 110,216 responders). We performed genome-wide association meta-analyses, genetic correlation analyses, leave-one-out polygenic prediction, and bioinformatics analyses for genetically informed drug prioritization. We identified two novel loci (rs1106260 and rs60847828) associated with non-response to antidepressants and showed significant polygenic prediction in independent samples. Genetic correlation analyses show positive associations between non-response to antidepressants and most psychiatric traits, and negative associations with cognitive traits and subjective well-being. In addition, we investigated drugs that target proteins likely involved in mechanisms underlying antidepressant non-response, and shortlisted drugs that warrant further replication and validation of their potential to reduce depressive symptoms in individuals who do not respond to first-line antidepressant medications. These results suggest that meta-analyses of GWAS utilizing real-world measures of treatment outcomes can increase sample sizes to improve the discovery of variants associated with non-response to antidepressants.

Multi-ancestry GWAS of severe pregnancy nausea and vomiting identifies risk loci associated with appetite, insulin signaling, and brain plasticity

While most pregnancies are affected by nausea and vomiting, hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) is at the severe end of the clinical spectrum and is associated with dehydration, undernutrition, and adverse maternal, fetal, and child outcomes. Herein we performed a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) of severe nausea and vomiting of pregnancy of 10,974 cases and 461,461 controls across European, Asian, African, and Latino ancestries. We identified ten significantly associated loci, of which six were novel (SLITRK1, SYN3, IGSF11, FSHB, TCF7L2, and CDH9), and confirmed previous genome-wide significant associations with risk genes GDF15, IGFBP7, PGR, and GFRAL. In a spatiotemporal analysis of placental development, GDF15 and TCF7L2 were expressed primarily in extra villous trophoblast, and using a weighted linear model of maternal, paternal, and fetal effects, we confirmed opposing effects for GDF15 between maternal and fetal genotype. Conversely, IGFBP7 and PGR were primarily expressed in developing maternal spiral arteries during placentation, with effects limited to the maternal genome. Risk loci were found to be under significant evolutionary selection, with the strongest effects on nausea and vomiting mid-pregnancy. Selected loci were associated with abnormal pregnancy weight gain, pregnancy duration, birth weight, head circumference, and pre-eclampsia. Potential roles for candidate genes in appetite, insulin signaling, and brain plasticity provide new pathways to explore etiological mechanisms and novel therapeutic avenues.

Metabolomic and genomic prediction of common diseases in 700,217 participants in three national biobanks

Identifying individuals at high risk of chronic diseases via easily measured biomarkers could enhance efforts to prevent avoidable illness and death. Using 'omic data can stratify risk for many diseases simultaneously from a single measurement that captures multiple molecular predictors of risk. Here we present nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in blood samples from 700,217 participants in three national biobanks. We built metabolomic scores that identify high-risk groups for diseases that cause the most morbidity in high-income countries and show consistent cross-biobank replication of the relative risk of disease for these groups. We show that these metabolomic scores are more strongly associated with disease onset than polygenic scores for most of these diseases. In a subset of 18,709 individuals with metabolomic biomarkers measured at two time points we show that people whose scores change have different risk of disease, suggesting that repeat measurements capture changes both to health status and disease risk possibly due to treatment, lifestyle changes or other factors. Lastly, we assessed the incremental predictive value of metabolomic scores over existing clinical risk scores for multiple diseases and found modest improvements in discrimination for several diseases whose clinical utility, while promising, remains to be determined.

Multi-ancestry GWAS of severe pregnancy nausea and vomiting identifies risk loci associated with appetite, insulin signaling, and brain plasticity

While most pregnancies are affected by nausea and vomiting, hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) is at the severe end of the clinical spectrum and is associated with dehydration, undernutrition, and adverse maternal, fetal, and child outcomes. Herein we performed a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) of severe nausea and vomiting of pregnancy of 10,974 cases and 461,461 controls across European, Asian, African, and Latino ancestries. We identified ten significantly associated loci, of which six were novel (SLITRK1, SYN3, IGSF11, FSHB, TCF7L2, and CDH9), and confirmed previous genome-wide significant associations with risk genes GDF15, IGFBP7, PGR, and GFRAL. In a spatiotemporal analysis of placental development, GDF15 and TCF7L2 were expressed primarily in extra villous trophoblast, and using a weighted linear model of maternal, paternal, and fetal effects, we confirmed opposing effects for GDF15 between maternal and fetal genotype. Conversely, IGFBP7 and PGR were primarily expressed in developing maternal spiral arteries during placentation, with effects limited to the maternal genome. Risk loci were found to be under significant evolutionary selection, with the strongest effects on nausea and vomiting mid-pregnancy. Selected loci were associated with abnormal pregnancy weight gain, pregnancy duration, birth weight, head circumference, and pre-eclampsia. Potential roles for candidate genes in appetite, insulin signaling, and brain plasticity provide new pathways to explore etiological mechanisms and novel therapeutic avenues.

Leveraging large-scale multi-omics evidences to identify therapeutic targets from genome-wide association studies

BACKGROUND

Therapeutic targets supported by genetic evidence from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) show higher probability of success in clinical trials. GWAS is a powerful approach to identify links between genetic variants and phenotypic variation; however, identifying the genes driving associations identified in GWAS remains challenging. Integration of molecular quantitative trait loci (molQTL) such as expression QTL (eQTL) using mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization analyses can help with the identification of causal genes. Careful interpretation remains warranted because eQTL can affect the expression of multiple genes within the same locus.

METHODS

We used a combination of genomic features that include variant annotation, activity-by-contact maps, MR, and colocalization with molQTL to prioritize causal genes across 4,611 disease GWAS and meta-analyses from biobank studies, namely FinnGen, Estonian Biobank and UK Biobank.

RESULTS

Genes identified using this approach are enriched for gold standard causal genes and capture known biological links between disease genetics and biology. In addition, we find that eQTL colocalizing with GWAS are statistically enriched for corresponding disease-relevant tissues. We show that predicted directionality from MR is generally consistent with matched drug mechanism of actions (> 85% for approved drugs). Compared to the nearest gene mapping method, genes supported by multi-omics evidences displayed higher enrichment in approved therapeutic targets (risk ratio 1.75 vs. 2.58 for genes with the highest level of support). Finally, using this approach, we detected anassociation between the IL6 receptor signal transduction gene IL6ST and polymyalgia rheumatica, an indication for which sarilumab, a monoclonal antibody against IL-6, has been recently approved.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining variant annotation, activity-by-contact maps, and molQTL increases performance to identify causal genes, while informing on directionality which can be translated to successful target identification and drug development.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of myasthenia gravis uncovers new loci and provides insights into polygenic prediction

Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a rare autoantibody-mediated disease affecting the neuromuscular junction. We performed a genome-wide association study of 5708 MG cases and 432,028 controls of European ancestry and a replication study in 3989 cases and 226,643 controls provided by 23andMe Inc. We identified 12 independent genome-wide significant hits (P < 5e-8) across 11 loci. Subgroup analyses revealed two of these were associated with early-onset (at age <50) and four with late-onset MG (at age ≥ 50). Imputation of human leukocyte antigen alleles revealed inverse effect sizes for late- and early-onset, suggesting a potential modulatory influence on the time of disease manifestation. We assessed the performance of polygenic risk scores for MG, which significantly predicted disease status in an independent target cohort, explaining 4.21% of the phenotypic variation (P = 5.12e-9). With this work, we aim to enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of MG.

The pleiotropic spectrum of proximal 16p11.2 CNVs

Recurrent genomic rearrangements at 16p11.2 BP4-5 represent one of the most common causes of genomic disorders. Originally associated with increased risk for autism spectrum disorder, schizophrenia, and intellectual disability, as well as adiposity and head circumference, these CNVs have since been associated with a plethora of phenotypic alterations, albeit with high variability in expressivity and incomplete penetrance. Here, we comprehensively review the pleiotropy associated with 16p11.2 BP4-5 rearrangements to shine light on its full phenotypic spectrum. Illustrating this phenotypic heterogeneity, we expose many parallels between findings gathered from clinical versus population-based cohorts, which often point to the same physiological systems, and emphasize the role of the CNV beyond neuropsychiatric and anthropometric traits. Revealing the complex and variable clinical manifestations of this CNV is crucial for accurate diagnosis and personalized treatment strategies for carrier individuals. Furthermore, we discuss areas of research that will be key to identifying factors contributing to phenotypic heterogeneity and gaining mechanistic insights into the molecular pathways underlying observed associations, while demonstrating how diversity in affected individuals, cohorts, experimental models, and analytical approaches can catalyze discoveries.

High incidence and geographic distribution of cleft palate in Finland are associated with the IRF6 gene

In Finland, the frequency of isolated cleft palate (CP) is higher than that of isolated cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P). This trend contrasts to that in other European countries but its genetic underpinnings are unknown. We conducted a genome-wide association study in the Finnish population and identified rs570516915, a single nucleotide polymorphism highly enriched in Finns, as strongly associated with CP (P = 5.25 × 10-34, OR = 8.65, 95% CI 6.11-12.25), but not with CL/P (P = 7.2 × 10-5), with genome-wide significance. The risk allele frequency of rs570516915 parallels the regional variation of CP prevalence in Finland, and the association was replicated in independent cohorts of CP cases from Finland (P = 8.82 × 10-28) and Estonia (P = 1.25 × 10-5). The risk allele of rs570516915 alters a conserved binding site for the transcription factor IRF6 within an enhancer (MCS-9.7) upstream of the IRF6 gene and diminishes the enhancer activity. Oral epithelial cells derived from CRISPR-Cas9 edited induced pluripotent stem cells demonstrate that the CP-associated allele of rs570516915 concomitantly decreases the binding of IRF6 and the expression level of IRF6, suggesting impaired IRF6 autoregulation as a molecular mechanism underlying the risk for CP.

Genetic architecture reconciles linkage and association studies of complex traits

Linkage studies have successfully mapped loci underlying monogenic disorders, but mostly failed when applied to common diseases. Conversely, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified replicable associations between thousands of SNPs and complex traits, yet capture less than half of the total heritability. In the present study we reconcile these two approaches by showing that linkage signals of height and body mass index (BMI) from 119,000 sibling pairs colocalize with GWAS-identified loci. Concordant with polygenicity, we observed the following: a genome-wide inflation of linkage test statistics; that GWAS results predict linkage signals; and that adjusting phenotypes for polygenic scores reduces linkage signals. Finally, we developed a method using recombination rate-stratified, identity-by-descent sharing between siblings to unbiasedly estimate heritability of height (0.76 ± 0.05) and BMI (0.55 ± 0.07). Our results imply that substantial heritability remains unaccounted for by GWAS-identified loci and this residual genetic variation is polygenic and enriched near these loci.

Ancestral genetic components are consistently associated with the complex trait landscape in European biobanks

The genetic structure in Europe was mostly shaped by admixture between the Western Hunter-Gatherers, Early European Farmers and Steppe Bronze Age ancestral components. Such structure is regarded as a confounder in GWAS and follow-up studies, and gold-standard methods exist to correct for it. However, it is still poorly understood to which extent these ancestral components contribute to complex trait variation in present-day Europe. In this work we harness the UK Biobank to address this question. By extensive demographic simulations, exploiting data on siblings and incorporating previous results we obtained from the Estonian Biobank, we carefully evaluate the significance and scope of our findings. Heart rate, platelet count, bone mineral density and many other traits show stratification similar to height and pigmentation traits, likely targets of selection and divergence across ancestral groups. We show that the reported ancestry-trait associations are not driven by environmental confounders by confirming our results when using between-sibling differences in ancestry. The consistency of our results across biobanks further supports this and indicates that these genetic predispositions that derive from post-Neolithic admixture events act as a source of variability and as potential confounders in Europe as a whole.

Socio-demographic and genetic risk factors for drug adherence and persistence across 5 common medication classes

Low drug adherence is a major obstacle to the benefits of pharmacotherapies and it is therefore important to identify factors associated with discontinuing or being poorly adherent to a prescribed treatment regimen. Using high-quality nationwide health registry data and genome-wide genotyping, we evaluate the impact of socio-demographic and genetic risk factors on adherence and persistence for 5 common medication classes that require long-term, regular therapy (N = 1,814,591 individuals from Finnish nationwide registries, 217,005 with genetic data from Finland and Estonia). Need for social assistance and immigration status show a notable negative effect on persistence and adherence across the examined medications (odd ratios between 0.48 and 0.82 for persistence and between 1.1% to 4.3% decrease in adherence) while demographic and health factors show comparably modest or inconsistent effects. A genome-wide scan does not identify genetic variants associated with the two phenotypes, while some pharmacogenes (i.e. CYP2C9 and SLCO1B1) are modestly associated with persistence, but not with adherence. We observe significant genetic correlations between medication adherence and participation in research studies. Overall, our findings suggest that socio-economically disadvantaged groups would benefit from targeted interventions to improve the dispensing and uptake of pharmacological treatments.

Comorbidities confound metabolomics studies of human disease

The co-occurrence of multiple chronic conditions, termed multimorbidity, presents an expanding global health challenge, demanding effective diagnostics and treatment strategies. Chronic ailments such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases have been linked to metabolites interacting between the host and microbiota. In this study, we investigated the impact of co-existing conditions on risk estimations for 1375 plasma metabolites in 919 individuals from population-based Estonian Biobank cohort using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) method. We leveraged annually linked national electronic health records (EHRs) data to delineate comorbidities in incident cases and controls for the 14 common chronic conditions. Among the 254 associations observed across 13 chronic conditions, we primarily identified disease-specific risk factors (92%, 217/235), with most predictors (93%, 219/235) found to be related to the gut microbiome upon cross-referencing recent literature data. Accounting for comorbidities led to a reduction of common metabolite predictors across various conditions. In conclusion, our study underscores the potential of utilizing biobank-linked retrospective and prospective EHRs for the disease-specific profiling of diverse multifactorial chronic conditions.

Genetics-driven risk predictions leveraging the Mendelian randomization framework

Accurate predictive models of future disease onset are crucial for effective preventive healthcare, yet longitudinal data sets linking early risk factors to subsequent health outcomes are limited. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a novel framework, Predictive Risk modeling using Mendelian Randomization (PRiMeR), which utilizes genetic effects as supervisory signals to learn disease risk predictors without relying on longitudinal data. To do so, PRiMeR leverages risk factors and genetic data from a healthy cohort, along with results from genome-wide association studies of diseases of interest. After training, the learned predictor can be used to assess risk for new patients solely based on risk factors. We validate PRiMeR through comprehensive simulations and in future type 2 diabetes predictions in UK Biobank participants without diabetes, using follow-up onset labels for validation. Moreover, we apply PRiMeR to predict future Alzheimer's disease onset from brain imaging biomarkers and future Parkinson's disease onset from accelerometer-derived traits. Overall, with PRiMeR we offer a new perspective in predictive modeling, showing it is possible to learn risk predictors leveraging genetics rather than longitudinal data.

Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region.

CONCLUSION

By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.

Disease coverage of human genome-wide association studies and pharmaceutical research and development

BACKGROUND

Despite the growing interest in the use of human genomic data for drug target identification and validation, the extent to which the spectrum of human disease has been addressed by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), or by drug development, and the degree to which these efforts overlap remain unclear.

METHODS

In this study we harmonize and integrate different data sources to create a sample space of all the human drug targets and diseases and identify points of convergence or divergence of GWAS and drug development efforts.

RESULTS

We show that only 612 of 11,158 diseases listed in Human Disease Ontology have an approved drug treatment in at least one region of the world. Of the 1414 diseases that are the subject of preclinical or clinical phase drug development, only 666 have been investigated in GWAS. Conversely, of the 1914 human diseases that have been the subject of GWAS, 1121 have yet to be investigated in drug development.

CONCLUSIONS

We produce target-disease indication lists to help the pharmaceutical industry to prioritize future drug development efforts based on genetic evidence, academia to prioritize future GWAS for diseases without effective treatments, and both sectors to harness genetic evidence to expand the indications for licensed drugs or to identify repurposing opportunities for clinical candidates that failed in their originally intended indication.

Large-scale genome-wide interaction analyses on multiple cardiometabolic risk factors to identify age-specific genetic risk factors

The genetic landscape of cardiometabolic risk factors has been explored extensively. However, insight in the effects of genetic variation on these risk factors over the life course is sparse. Here, we performed genome-wide interaction studies (GWIS) on different cardiometabolic risk factors to identify age-specific genetic risks. This study included 270,276 unrelated European-ancestry participants from the UK Biobank (54.2% women, a median age of 58 [interquartile range (IQR): 50, 63] years). GWIS models with interaction terms between genetic variants and age were performed on apolipoprotein B (ApoB), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), log-transformed triglycerides (TG), body mass index (BMI) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). Replication was subsequently performed in the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) and the Estonian Biobank (EstBB). Multiple lead variants were identified to have genome-wide significant interactions with age (Pinteraction < 1e - 08). In detail, rs429358 (tagging APOE4) was identified for ApoB (Pinteraction = 9.0e - 14) and TG (Pinteraction = 5.4e - 16). Three additional lead variants were identified for ApoB: rs11591147 (R46L in PCSK9, Pinteraction = 3.9e - 09), rs34601365 (near APOB, Pinteraction = 8.4e - 09) and rs17248720 (near LDLR, Pinteraction = 2.0e - 09). Effect sizes of the identified lead variants were generally closer to the null with increasing age. No variant-age interactions were identified for LDL-C, SBP and BMI. The significant interactions of rs429358 with age on ApoB and TG were replicated in both CGPS and EstBB. The majority of genetic effects on cardiometabolic risk factors remain relatively constant over age, with the noted exceptions of specific genetic effects on ApoB and TG.

Genetic and functional analysis of Raynaud's syndrome implicates loci in vasculature and immunity

Raynaud's syndrome is a dysautonomia where exposure to cold causes vasoconstriction and hypoxia, particularly in the extremities. We performed meta-analysis in four cohorts and discovered eight loci (ADRA2A, IRX1, NOS3, ACVR2A, TMEM51, PCDH10-DT, HLA, and RAB6C) where ADRA2A, ACVR2A, NOS3, TMEM51, and IRX1 co-localized with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), particularly in distal arteries. CRISPR gene editing further showed that ADRA2A and NOS3 loci modified gene expression and in situ RNAscope clarified the specificity of ADRA2A in small vessels and IRX1 around small capillaries in the skin. A functional contraction assay in the cold showed lower contraction in ADRA2A-deficient and higher contraction in ADRA2A-overexpressing smooth muscle cells. Overall, our study highlights the power of genome-wide association testing with functional follow-up as a method to understand complex diseases. The results indicate temperature-dependent adrenergic signaling through ADRA2A, effects at the microvasculature by IRX1, endothelial signaling by NOS3, and immune mechanisms by the HLA locus in Raynaud's syndrome.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of ascertainment and symptom structures of major depression in case-enriched and community cohorts

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder allow for heterogeneous symptom profiles but genetic analysis of major depressive symptoms has the potential to identify clinical and etiological subtypes. There are several challenges to integrating symptom data from genetically informative cohorts, such as sample size differences between clinical and community cohorts and various patterns of missing data.

METHODS

We conducted genome-wide association studies of major depressive symptoms in three cohorts that were enriched for participants with a diagnosis of depression (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Australian Genetics of Depression Study, Generation Scotland) and three community cohorts who were not recruited on the basis of diagnosis (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Estonian Biobank, and UK Biobank). We fit a series of confirmatory factor models with factors that accounted for how symptom data was sampled and then compared alternative models with different symptom factors.

RESULTS

The best fitting model had a distinct factor for Appetite/Weight symptoms and an additional measurement factor that accounted for the skip-structure in community cohorts (use of Depression and Anhedonia as gating symptoms).

CONCLUSION

The results show the importance of assessing the directionality of symptoms (such as hypersomnia versus insomnia) and of accounting for study and measurement design when meta-analyzing genetic association data.

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence in Multimodal Omics Data Integration: Paving the Path for the Next Frontier in Precision Medicine

The integration of multiomics data with detailed phenotypic insights from electronic health records marks a paradigm shift in biomedical research, offering unparalleled holistic views into health and disease pathways. This review delineates the current landscape of multimodal omics data integration, emphasizing its transformative potential in generating a comprehensive understanding of complex biological systems. We explore robust methodologies for data integration, ranging from concatenation-based to transformation-based and network-based strategies, designed to harness the intricate nuances of diverse data types. Our discussion extends from incorporating large-scale population biobanks to dissecting high-dimensional omics layers at the single-cell level. The review underscores the emerging role of large language models in artificial intelligence, anticipating their influence as a near-future pivot in data integration approaches. Highlighting both achievements and hurdles, we advocate for a concerted effort toward sophisticated integration models, fortifying the foundation for groundbreaking discoveries in precision medicine.

Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events

A diagnosis of epilepsy has significant consequences for an individual but is often challenging in clinical practice. Novel biomarkers are thus greatly needed. Here, we investigated how common genetic factors (epilepsy polygenic risk scores, [PRSs]) influence epilepsy risk in detailed longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) of > 700k Finns and Estonians. We found that a high genetic generalized epilepsy PRS (PRSGGE) increased risk for genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.73 per PRSGGE standard deviation [SD]) across lifetime and within 10 years after an unspecified seizure event. The effect of PRSGGE was significantly larger on idiopathic generalized epilepsies, in females and for earlier epilepsy onset. Analogously, we found significant but more modest focal epilepsy PRS burden associated with non-acquired focal epilepsy (NAFE). Here, we outline the potential of epilepsy specific PRSs to serve as biomarkers after a first seizure event.

Genetic variants affect diurnal glucose levels throughout the day

Circadian rhythms not only coordinate the timing of wake and sleep but also regulate homeostasis within the body, including glucose metabolism. However, the genetic variants that contribute to temporal control of glucose levels have not been previously examined. Using data from 420,000 individuals from the UK Biobank and replicating our findings in 100,000 individuals from the Estonian Biobank, we show that diurnal serum glucose is under genetic control. We discover a robust temporal association of glucose levels at the Melatonin receptor 1B ( MTNR1B) (rs10830963, P = 1e-22) and a canonical circadian pacemaker gene Cryptochrome 2 ( CRY2) loci (rs12419690, P = 1e-16). Furthermore, we show that sleep modulates serum glucose levels and the genetic variants have a separate mechanism of diurnal control. Finally, we show that these variants independently modulate risk of type 2 diabetes. Our findings, together with earlier genetic and epidemiological evidence, show a clear connection between sleep and metabolism and highlight variation at MTNR1B and CRY2 as temporal regulators for glucose levels.

Gut microbiome in endometriosis: a cohort study on 1000 individuals

BACKGROUND

Endometriosis, defined as the presence of endometrial-like tissue outside of the uterus, is one of the most prevalent gynecological disorders. Although different theories have been proposed, its pathogenesis is not clear. Novel studies indicate that the gut microbiome may be involved in the etiology of endometriosis; nevertheless, the connection between microbes, their dysbiosis, and the development of endometriosis is understudied. This case-control study analyzed the gut microbiome in women with and without endometriosis to identify microbial targets involved in the disease.

METHODS

A subsample of 1000 women from the Estonian Microbiome cohort, including 136 women with endometriosis and 864 control women, was analyzed. Microbial composition was determined by shotgun metagenomics and microbial functional pathways were annotated using the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database. Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm was performed to cluster the microbial profile of the Estonian population. The alpha- and beta-diversity and differential abundance analyses were performed to assess the gut microbiome (species and KEGG orthologies (KO)) in both groups. Metagenomic reads were mapped to estrobolome-related enzymes' sequences to study potential microbiome-estrogen metabolism axis alterations in endometriosis.

RESULTS

Diversity analyses did not detect significant differences between women with and without endometriosis (alpha-diversity: all p-values > 0.05; beta-diversity: PERMANOVA, both R 2 < 0.0007, p-values > 0.05). No differential species or pathways were detected after multiple testing adjustment (all FDR p-values > 0.05). Sensitivity analysis excluding women at menopause (> 50 years) confirmed our results. Estrobolome-associated enzymes' sequence reads were not significantly different between groups (all FDR p-values > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not provide enough evidence to support the existence of a gut microbiome-dependent mechanism directly implicated in the pathogenesis of endometriosis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest metagenome study on endometriosis conducted to date.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

High incidence and geographic distribution of cleft palate cases in Finland are associated with a regulatory variant in IRF6

In Finland the frequency of isolated cleft palate (CP) is higher than that of isolated cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P). This trend contrasts to that in other European countries but its genetic underpinnings are unknown. We performed a genome-wide association study for orofacial clefts, which include CL/P and CP, in the Finnish population. We identified rs570516915, a single nucleotide polymorphism that is highly enriched in Finns and Estonians, as being strongly associated with CP ( P = 5.25 × 10 -34 , OR = 8.65, 95% CI 6.11-12.25), but not with CL/P ( P = 7.2 × 10 -5 ), with genome-wide significance. The risk allele frequency of rs570516915 parallels the regional variation of CP prevalence in Finland, and the association was replicated in independent cohorts of CP cases from Finland ( P = 8.82 × 10 -28 ) and Estonia ( P = 1.25 × 10 -5 ). The risk allele of rs570516915 disrupts a conserved binding site for the transcription factor IRF6 within a previously characterized enhancer upstream of the IRF6 gene. Through reporter assay experiments we found that the risk allele of rs570516915 diminishes the enhancer activity. Oral epithelial cells derived from CRISPR-Cas9 edited induced pluripotent stem cells demonstrate that the CP-associated allele of rs570516915 concomitantly decreases the binding of IRF6 and the expression level of IRF6 , suggesting impaired IRF6 autoregulation as a molecular mechanism underlying the risk for CP.

Characterising the genetic architecture of changes in adiposity during adulthood using electronic health records

Obesity is a heritable disease, characterised by excess adiposity that is measured by body mass index (BMI). While over 1,000 genetic loci are associated with BMI, less is known about the genetic contribution to adiposity trajectories over adulthood. We derive adiposity-change phenotypes from 24.5 million primary-care health records in over 740,000 individuals in the UK Biobank, Million Veteran Program USA, and Estonian Biobank, to discover and validate the genetic architecture of adiposity trajectories. Using multiple BMI measurements over time increases power to identify genetic factors affecting baseline BMI by 14%. In the largest reported genome-wide study of adiposity-change in adulthood, we identify novel associations with BMI-change at six independent loci, including rs429358 (APOE missense variant). The SNP-based heritability of BMI-change (1.98%) is 9-fold lower than that of BMI. The modest genetic correlation between BMI-change and BMI (45.2%) indicates that genetic studies of longitudinal trajectories could uncover novel biology of quantitative traits in adulthood.

Associations between attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder genetic liability and ICD-10 medical conditions in adults: utilizing electronic health records in a Phenome-Wide Association Study

BACKGROUND

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is often comorbid with other medical conditions in adult patients. However, ADHD is extremely underdiagnosed in adults and little is known about the medical comorbidities in undiagnosed adult individuals with high ADHD liability. In this study we investigated associations between ADHD genetic liability and electronic health record (EHR)-based ICD-10 diagnoses across all diagnostic categories, in individuals without ADHD diagnosis history.

METHODS

We used data from the Estonian Biobank cohort (N = 111 261) and generated polygenic risk scores (PRS) for ADHD (PRSADHD) based on the ADHD genome-wide association study. We performed a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to test for associations between standardized PRSADHD and 1515 EHR-based ICD-10 diagnoses in the full and sex-stratified sample. We compared the observed significant ICD-10 associations to associations with (1) ADHD diagnosis and (2) questionnaire-based high ADHD risk analyses.

RESULTS

After Bonferroni correction (p = 3.3 × 10-5) we identified 80 medical conditions associated with PRSADHD. The strongest evidence was seen with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 1.15, CI 1.11-1.18), obesity (OR 1.13, CI 1.11-1.15), and type 2 diabetes (OR 1.11, CI 1.09-1.14). Sex-stratified analysis generally showed similar associations in males and females. Out of all identified associations, 40% and 78% were also observed using ADHD diagnosis or questionnaire-based ADHD, respectively, as the predictor.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall our findings indicate that ADHD genetic liability is associated with an increased risk of a substantial number of medical conditions in undiagnosed individuals. These results highlight the need for timely detection and improved management of ADHD symptoms in adults.

Genetic drivers and cellular selection of female mosaic X chromosome loss

Mosaic loss of the X chromosome (mLOX) is the most common clonal somatic alteration in leukocytes of female individuals1,2, but little is known about its genetic determinants or phenotypic consequences. Here, to address this, we used data from 883,574 female participants across 8 biobanks; 12% of participants exhibited detectable mLOX in approximately 2% of leukocytes. Female participants with mLOX had an increased risk of myeloid and lymphoid leukaemias. Genetic analyses identified 56 common variants associated with mLOX, implicating genes with roles in chromosomal missegregation, cancer predisposition and autoimmune diseases. Exome-sequence analyses identified rare missense variants in FBXO10 that confer a twofold increased risk of mLOX. Only a small fraction of associations was shared with mosaic Y chromosome loss, suggesting that distinct biological processes drive formation and clonal expansion of sex chromosome missegregation. Allelic shift analyses identified X chromosome alleles that are preferentially retained in mLOX, demonstrating variation at many loci under cellular selection. A polygenic score including 44 allelic shift loci correctly inferred the retained X chromosomes in 80.7% of mLOX cases in the top decile. Our results support a model in which germline variants predispose female individuals to acquiring mLOX, with the allelic content of the X chromosome possibly shaping the magnitude of clonal expansion.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Genetic predisposition and antipsychotic treatment effect on metabolic syndrome in schizophrenia: a ten-year follow-up study using the Estonian Biobank

Background

Schizophrenia (SCZ) patients exhibit 30% higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) compared to the general population with its suboptimal management contributing to increased mortality. Large-scale studies providing real-world evidence of the underlying causes remain limited.

Methods

To address this gap, we used real-world health data from the Estonian Biobank, spanning a median follow-up of ten years, to investigate the impact of genetic predisposition and antipsychotic treatment on the development of MetS in SCZ patients. Specifically, we set out to characterize antipsychotic treatment patterns, genetic predisposition of MetS traits, MetS prognosis, and body mass index (BMI) trajectories, comparing SCZ cases (n = 677) to age- and sex-matched controls (n = 2708).

Findings

SCZ cases exhibited higher genetic predisposition to SCZ (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.58-1.94), but lower polygenic burden for increased BMI (OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.88-0.96) and C-reactive protein (OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.97) compared to controls. While SCZ cases showed worse prognosis of MetS (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.54-2.46), higher antipsychotic adherence within the first treatment year was associated with reduced long-term MetS incidence. Linear mixed modelling, incorporating multiple BMI timepoints, underscored the significant contribution of both, antipsychotic medication, and genetic predisposition to higher BMI, driving the substantially upward trajectory of BMI in SCZ cases.

Interpretation

These findings contribute to refining clinical risk prediction and prevention strategies for MetS among SCZ patients and emphasize the significance of incorporating genetic information, long-term patient tracking, and employing diverse perspectives when analyzing real-world health data.

Funding

EU Horizon 2020, Swedish Research Council, Estonian Research Council, Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, University of Tartu.

Polygenic liability for antipsychotic dosage and polypharmacy - a real-world registry and biobank study

Genomic prediction of antipsychotic dose and polypharmacy has been difficult, mainly due to limited access to large cohorts with genetic and drug prescription data. In this proof of principle study, we investigated if genetic liability for schizophrenia is associated with high dose requirements of antipsychotics and antipsychotic polypharmacy, using real-world registry and biobank data from five independent Nordic cohorts of a total of N = 21,572 individuals with psychotic disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and other psychosis). Within regression models, a polygenic risk score (PRS) for schizophrenia was studied in relation to standardized antipsychotic dose as well as antipsychotic polypharmacy, defined based on longitudinal prescription registry data as well as health records and self-reported data. Meta-analyses across the five cohorts showed that PRS for schizophrenia was significantly positively associated with prescribed (standardized) antipsychotic dose (beta(SE) = 0.0435(0.009), p = 0.0006) and antipsychotic polypharmacy defined as taking ≥2 antipsychotics (OR = 1.10, CI = 1.05-1.21, p = 0.0073). The direction of effect was similar in all five independent cohorts. These findings indicate that genotypes may aid clinically relevant decisions on individual patients´ antipsychotic treatment. Further, the findings illustrate how real-world data have the potential to generate results needed for future precision medicine approaches in psychiatry.

Variability of polygenic prediction for body mass index in Africa

BACKGROUND

Polygenic prediction studies in continental Africans are scarce. Africa's genetic and environmental diversity pose a challenge that limits the generalizability of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for body mass index (BMI) within the continent. Studies to understand the factors that affect PRS variability within Africa are required.

METHODS

Using the first multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis for BMI involving continental Africans, we derived a multi-ancestry PRS and compared its performance to a European ancestry-specific PRS in continental Africans (AWI-Gen study) and a European cohort (Estonian Biobank). We then evaluated the factors affecting the performance of the PRS in Africans which included fine-mapping resolution, allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium patterns, and PRS-environment interactions.

RESULTS

Polygenic prediction of BMI in continental Africans is poor compared to that in European ancestry individuals. However, we show that the multi-ancestry PRS is more predictive than the European ancestry-specific PRS due to its improved fine-mapping resolution. We noted regional variation in polygenic prediction across Africa's East, South, and West regions, which was driven by a complex interplay of the PRS with environmental factors, such as physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, and socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the role of gene-environment interactions in PRS prediction variability in Africa. PRS methods that correct for these interactions, coupled with the increased representation of Africans in GWAS, may improve PRS prediction in Africa.

[Blockchain in health: Transforming security and clinical data management]

INTRODUCTION

Technological advances continue to transform society, including the health sector. The decentralized and verifiable nature of blockchain technology presents great potential for addressing current challenges in healthcare data management.

DISCUSSION

This article reports on how the generalized adoption of blockchain faces important challenges and barriers that must be addressed, such as the lack of regulation, technical complexity, safeguarding privacy, and economic and technological costs. Collaboration between medical professionals, technologists and legislators is essential to establish a solid regulatory framework and adequate training.

CONCLUSION

Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize data management in the healthcare sector, improving the quality of medical care, empowering users, and promoting the secure sharing of data, but an important cultural change is needed, along with more evidence, to reveal its advantages in front of the existing technological alternative.

A genome-wide spectrum of tandem repeat expansions in 338,963 humans

The Genome Aggregation Database (gnomAD), widely recognized as the gold-standard reference map of human genetic variation, has largely overlooked tandem repeat (TR) expansions, despite the fact that TRs constitute ∼6% of our genome and are linked to over 50 human diseases. Here, we introduce the TR-gnomAD (https://wlcb.oit.uci.edu/TRgnomAD), a biobank-scale reference of 0.86 million TRs derived from 338,963 whole-genome sequencing (WGS) samples of diverse ancestries (39.5% non-European samples). TR-gnomAD offers critical insights into ancestry-specific disease prevalence using disparities in TR unit number frequencies among ancestries. Moreover, TR-gnomAD is able to differentiate between common, presumably benign TR expansions, which are prevalent in TR-gnomAD, from those potentially pathogenic TR expansions, which are found more frequently in disease groups than within TR-gnomAD. Together, TR-gnomAD is an invaluable resource for researchers and physicians to interpret TR expansions in individuals with genetic diseases.

Genetic determinants of plasma protein levels in the Estonian population

The proteome holds great potential as an intermediate layer between the genome and phenome. Previous protein quantitative trait locus studies have focused mainly on describing the effects of common genetic variations on the proteome. Here, we assessed the impact of the common and rare genetic variations as well as the copy number variants (CNVs) on 326 plasma proteins measured in up to 500 individuals. We identified 184 cis and 94 trans signals for 157 protein traits, which were further fine-mapped to credible sets for 101 cis and 87 trans signals for 151 proteins. Rare genetic variation contributed to the levels of 7 proteins, with 5 cis and 14 trans associations. CNVs were associated with the levels of 11 proteins (7 cis and 5 trans), examples including a 3q12.1 deletion acting as a hub for multiple trans associations; and a CNV overlapping NAIP, a sensor component of the NAIP-NLRC4 inflammasome which is affecting pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin 18 levels. In summary, this work presents a comprehensive resource of genetic variation affecting the plasma protein levels and provides the interpretation of identified effects.

Hemorrhoidal disease and its genetic association with depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, and schizophrenia: a bidirectional mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Hemorrhoids and psychiatric disorders exhibit high prevalence rates and a tendency for relapse in epidemiological studies. Despite this, limited research has explored their correlation, and these studies are often subject to reverse causality and residual confounding. We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to comprehensively investigate the association between several mental illnesses and hemorrhoidal disease.

METHODS

Genetic associations for four psychiatric disorders and hemorrhoidal disease were obtained from large consortia, the FinnGen study, and the UK Biobank. Genetic variants associated with depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, and hemorrhoidal disease at the genome-wide significance level were selected as instrumental variables. Screening for potential confounders in genetic instrumental variables using PhenoScanner V2. Bidirectional MR estimates were employed to assess the effects of four psychiatric disorders on hemorrhoidal disease.

RESULTS

Our analysis revealed a significant association between genetically predicted depression and the risk of hemorrhoidal disease (IVW, OR=1.20,95% CI=1.09 to 1.33, P <0.001). We found no evidence of associations between bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, and hemorrhoidal disease. Inverse MR analysis provided evidence for a significant association between genetically predicted hemorrhoidal disease and depression (IVW, OR=1.07,95% CI=1.04 to 1.11, P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers MR evidence supporting a bidirectional causal relationship between depression and hemorrhoidal disease.

Genome-wide analyses identify 21 infertility loci and over 400 reproductive hormone loci across the allele frequency spectrum

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) may help inform treatments for infertility, whose causes remain unknown in many cases. Here we present GWAS meta-analyses across six cohorts for male and female infertility in up to 41,200 cases and 687,005 controls. We identified 21 genetic risk loci for infertility (P≤5E-08), of which 12 have not been reported for any reproductive condition. We found positive genetic correlations between endometriosis and all-cause female infertility (rg=0.585, P=8.98E-14), and between polycystic ovary syndrome and anovulatory infertility (rg=0.403, P=2.16E-03). The evolutionary persistence of female infertility-risk alleles in EBAG9 may be explained by recent directional selection. We additionally identified up to 269 genetic loci associated with follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinising hormone, oestradiol, and testosterone through sex-specific GWAS meta-analyses (N=6,095-246,862). While hormone-associated variants near FSHB and ARL14EP colocalised with signals for anovulatory infertility, we found no rg between female infertility and reproductive hormones (P>0.05). Exome sequencing analyses in the UK Biobank (N=197,340) revealed that women carrying testosterone-lowering rare variants in GPC2 were at higher risk of infertility (OR=2.63, P=1.25E-03). Taken together, our results suggest that while individual genes associated with hormone regulation may be relevant for fertility, there is limited genetic evidence for correlation between reproductive hormones and infertility at the population level. We provide the first comprehensive view of the genetic architecture of infertility across multiple diagnostic criteria in men and women, and characterise its relationship to other health conditions.

Self- and informant-reported personality traits and vaccination against COVID-19

As COVID-19 vaccines' accessibility has grown, so has the role of personal choice in vaccination, and not everybody is willing to vaccinate. Exploring personality traits' associations with vaccination could highlight some person-level drivers of, and barriers to, vaccination. We used self- and informant-ratings of the Five-Factor Model domains and their subtraits (a) measured approximately at the time of vaccination with the 100 Nuances of Personality (100NP) item pool (N = 56,575) and (b) measured on average ten years before the pandemic with the NEO Personality Inventory-3 (NEO-PI-3; N = 3,168). We tested individual domains' and either items' (in the 100NP sample) or facets' (in the NEO-PI-3 sample) associations with vaccination, as well as their collective ability to predict vaccination using elastic net models trained and tested in independent sample partitions. Although the NEO-PI-3 domains and facets did not predict vaccination ten years later, the domains correlated with vaccination in the 100NP sample, with vaccinated people scoring slightly higher on neuroticism and agreeableness and lower on openness, controlling for age, sex, and education. Collectively, the five domains predicted vaccination with an accuracy of r = .08. Associations were stronger at the item level. Vaccinated people were, on average, more science-minded, politically liberal, respectful of rules and authority, and anxious but less spiritual, religious, and self-assured. The 100NP items collectively predicted vaccination with r = .31 accuracy. We conclude that unvaccinated people may be a psychologically heterogeneous group and highlight some potential areas for action in vaccination campaigns.

Genetic Associations of Circulating Cardiovascular Proteins With Gestational Hypertension and Preeclampsia

Importance

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs), including gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, are important contributors to maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. In addition, women with HDPs face an elevated long-term risk of cardiovascular disease.

Objective

To identify proteins in the circulation associated with HDPs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) tested the associations of genetic instruments for cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. In downstream analyses, a systematic review of observational data was conducted to evaluate the identified proteins' dynamics across gestation in hypertensive vs normotensive pregnancies, and phenome-wide MR analyses were performed to identify potential non-HDP-related effects associated with the prioritized proteins. Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from the Systematic and Combined Analysis of Olink Proteins (SCALLOP) consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from recent European-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analyses for gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. Study data were analyzed October 2022 to October 2023.

Exposures

Genetic instruments for 90 candidate proteins implicated in cardiovascular diseases, constructed using cis-protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTLs).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Gestational hypertension and preeclampsia.

Results

Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from 21 758 participants from the SCALLOP consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from 393 238 female individuals (8636 cases and 384 602 controls) for gestational hypertension and 606 903 female individuals (16 032 cases and 590 871 controls) for preeclampsia. Seventy-five of 90 proteins (83.3%) had at least 1 valid cis-pQTL. Of those, 10 proteins (13.3%) were significantly associated with HDPs. Four were robust to sensitivity analyses for gestational hypertension (cluster of differentiation 40, eosinophil cationic protein [ECP], galectin 3, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]), and 2 were robust for preeclampsia (cystatin B, heat shock protein 27 [HSP27]). Consistent with the MR findings, observational data revealed that lower NT-proBNP (0.76- to 0.88-fold difference vs no HDPs) and higher HSP27 (2.40-fold difference vs no HDPs) levels during the first trimester of pregnancy were associated with increased risk of HDPs, as were higher levels of ECP (1.60-fold difference vs no HDPs). Phenome-wide MR analyses identified 37 unique non-HDP-related protein-disease associations, suggesting potential on-target effects associated with interventions lowering HDP risk through the identified proteins.

Conclusions and Relevance

Study findings suggest genetic associations of 4 cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and 2 associated with preeclampsia. Future studies are required to test the efficacy of targeting the corresponding pathways to reduce HDP risk.