Substantial Decline in Prevalence of Vaccine-Type and Nonvaccine-Type Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Girls 5 Years After Implementing HPV Vaccine in Norway

Monitoring HPV Prevalence and Risk Cofactors for Abnormal Cytology in the Post-Vaccination Period among Croatian Women

The incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer in Croatia remains a health challenge despite screening efforts. Besides the persistent infection with HPV, the development of cancer is also associated with some cofactors. The goal of this study was to assess circulating HPV genotypes and risk factors for the development of cervical precancer after almost 16 years from the onset of HPV vaccination in Croatia. In this study, a total of 321 women attending gynecological care were evaluated. Relevant medical and demographic information, including cytology, were collected. HPV genotyping was performed by PCR. Comparing the HPV types found in circulation in the pre-vaccination (1999-2015) and post-vaccination periods (2020-2023), a statistically significant reduction in HPV 31 was noted, while the overall prevalence increased in the post-vaccination period. Besides the expected HPV positivity as a risk factor, the history of smoking was associated with LSIL or worse cytology at enrollment. For the first time, this population study revealed a statistically significant shift in the HPV genotype in the post-vaccination period, as well as the confirmation of risk factors for the development of abnormal cytology among Croatian women.

Impact of HPV Vaccination on the Incidence of High-Grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN2+) in Women Aged 20-25 in the Northern Part of Norway: A 15-Year Study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV), the most prevalent sexually transmitted infection globally, is a key risk factor for high-grade cervical lesions and cervical cancer. Since 2009, HPV vaccination has been part of the national immunization program for girls in 7th grade in Norway (women born 1997 and later). This study aimed to assess the impact of HPV vaccination on the incidence of high-grade cervical precursors (CIN2+) among women aged 20-25 in Troms and Finnmark over a 15-year period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this time series study, we analyzed cervical screening data from 15,328 women aged 20-25 in Troms and Finnmark, collected between 2008 and 2022. Statistical methods, including linear and logistic regression, were employed to evaluate changes in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and worse (CIN2+) incidence and compare risks between vaccine-offered cohorts and pre-vaccine cohorts.

RESULTS

The incidence of CIN2+ initially increased from 31 cases per year in 2008 to 110 cases in 2018, then significantly decreased to 44 cases per year by 2022 (p < 0.01). Women in pre-vaccine cohorts had a substantially higher risk of CIN2+ (OR 9.02, 95% CI 5.9-13.8) and CIN3+ (OR 19.6, 95% CI 7.3-52.6). Notably, no vaccinated women with CIN2+ tested positive for HPV types 16 or 18. Furthermore, none of the 13 cervical cancer cases recorded during the study were from the vaccinated cohorts.

INTERPRETATION

The findings suggest a significant reduction in the incidence of high-grade cervical precursors following the introduction of the HPV vaccine in Norway's national immunization program, highlighting its effectiveness in cervical cancer prevention among young women in Northern Norway.

Knowledge and Practices Regarding Human Papillomavirus and Cervical Cancer Screening Among Women in Low-Income Areas of China: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the primary cause of cervical cancer. However, this can be prevented through vaccination and screening. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between behavior, knowledge, and attitude toward cervical cancer and regular screening and HPV infection among women in Lueyang County.

METHODS

Women who underwent cervical cancer screening at the outpatient department of a maternal and child health center between September and December 2021 were invited to participate. In total, 2,303 women completed the questionnaire. Women who underwent regular or irregular screening were 1:1 matched for age. Differences in knowledge of HPV and attitudes toward HPV vaccination among different populations were assessed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors influencing HPV infection.

RESULTS

 In total, 417 pairs of women who underwent regular and irregular screening were successfully matched. Multivariate logistic regression results indicated that age is a risk factor for HPV infection (OR=1.056 95%CI: [1.031 1.082]), while regular screening acts as a protective factor against HPV infection (OR=0.174 95%CI: [0.117 0.259]). Additionally, regular screening was associated with a higher level of knowledge about HPV among women compared to those who did not undergo regular screening (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

 Women in Lueyang County have low levels of knowledge regarding HPV and cervical cancer. Regular screening is a protective factor against HPV infection. The regular screening group demonstrates a higher level of HPV knowledge compared with the irregular screening group. These findings highlight the importance of regular screening and the need to strengthen public health education.

The Burden of Genital Warts in Finland: Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Prevalence and Direct Medical Costs in 2018

Genital warts (GWs) caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV) are a significant health problem due to high prevalence and rate of recurrence. Bivalent vaccine has been used since the start of the national vaccination program in 2013, making it feasible to study the GW burden in Finland. There is no national and up-to-date information available on the prevalence and the burden of GWs in the various healthcare sectors in Finland. The present study investigated the prevalence, healthcare resource use, and direct medical costs of the treatment of GWs in Finland in 2018 using data in national healthcare registers. GW cases were identified based on diagnoses in public healthcare and GW-related prescription medications. Cost analysis included public healthcare contacts, procedures in private care, and medications. The study showed that approximately 12,000 GWs cases were treated in Finland in 2018. Since less than half of GW diagnoses were recorded in public healthcare registers, determining the exact costs was challenging. The estimated direct treatment costs in 2018 were 2.6 M€, which is higher than the previous estimation in Finland, yet still likely an underestimation of the true burden. These results provide information for the management of the GW burden in Finland.

Ability of epidemiological studies to monitor HPV post-vaccination dynamics: a simulation study

Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are caused by a broad diversity of genotypes. As available vaccines target a subgroup of these genotypes, monitoring transmission dynamics of nonvaccine genotypes is essential. After reviewing the epidemiological literature on study designs aiming to monitor those dynamics, we evaluated their abilities to detect HPV-prevalence changes following vaccine introduction. We developed an agent-based model to simulate HPV transmission in a heterosexual population under various scenarios of vaccine coverage and genotypic interaction, and reproduced two study designs: post-vs.-prevaccine and vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated comparisons. We calculated the total sample size required to detect statistically significant prevalence differences at the 5% significance level and 80% power. Although a decrease in vaccine-genotype prevalence was detectable as early as 1 year after vaccine introduction, simulations indicated that the indirect impact on nonvaccine-genotype prevalence (a decrease under synergistic interaction or an increase under competitive interaction) would only be measurable after >10 years whatever the vaccine coverage. Sample sizes required for nonvaccine genotypes were >5 times greater than for vaccine genotypes and tended to be smaller in the post-vs.-prevaccine than in the vaccinated-vs.-unvaccinated design. These results highlight that previously published epidemiological studies were not powerful enough to efficiently detect changes in nonvaccine-genotype prevalence.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of switching from bivalent to nonavalent vaccine for human papillomavirus in Norway: incorporating the full health impact of all HPV-related diseases

AIM

The objective of this study was to estimate and compare the cost-effectiveness of switching from a bivalent to a nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in Norway, incorporating all nonavalent vaccine-preventable HPV-related diseases and in the context of the latest cervical cancer screening program.

METHODS

A well-established dynamic transmission model of the natural history of HPV infection and disease was adapted to the Norwegian population. We determined the number of cases of HPV-related diseases and subsequent number of deaths, and the economic burden of HPV-related disease under the current standard of care conditions of bivalent and nonavalent vaccinations of girls and boys aged 12 years.

RESULTS

Compared to bivalent vaccination, nonavalent vaccination averted an additional 4,357 cases of HPV-related cancers, 421,925 cases of genital warts, and 543 cases of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) over a 100-year time horizon. Nonavalent vaccination also averted an additional 1,044 deaths over the 100-year time horizon when compared with bivalent vaccination. Total costs were higher for the nonavalent strategy (10.5 billion NOK [€1.03 billion] vs. 9.3-9.4 billion NOK [€915-925 million] for bivalent vaccination). A switch to nonavalent vaccination had a higher vaccination cost (4.4 billion NOK [€433 million] vs. 2.7 billion NOK [€266 million] for bivalent vaccination) but resulted in a savings of 627-694 million NOK [€62-68 million] in treatment costs. A switch to nonavalent vaccination demonstrated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 102,500 NOK (€10,086) per QALY versus bivalent vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a model that incorporated the full range of HPV-related diseases, and the latest cervical cancer screening practices, we found that switching from bivalent to nonavalent vaccination would be considered cost-effective in Norway.

Real-world impact and effectiveness of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine: an updated systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, which poses significant disease burden, is decreasing following implementation of vaccination programs. Synthesized evidence on HPV vaccine real-world benefit was published in 2016. However, long-term impact of vaccination, and how vaccination programs influence infection rates and disease outcomes, requires further examination.

AREAS COVERED

We systematically reviewed observational studies on HPV vaccination within MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Google Scholar from 2016 to 2020, involving 14 years of follow-up data. We identified 138 peer-reviewed publications reporting HPV vaccine impact or effectiveness. Outcomes of interest included rates of infection at different anatomical sites and incidence of several HPV-related disease endpoints.

EXPERT OPINION

The expansion of HPV vaccination programs worldwide has led to a reduction in genital infection and significant decreases in incidence of HPV-related disease outcomes. Therefore, the WHO has set goals for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health concern. To track progress toward this requires an understanding of the effectiveness of different vaccination initiatives. However, the impact on males, and potential benefit of gender-neutral vaccination programs have not been fully explored. To present an accurate commentary on the current outlook of vaccination and to help shape policy therefore requires a systematic review of available data.

HPV type-specific trends in cervical precancers in the United States, 2008-2016

Declines in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2-3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) observed among young women suggest impact from human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. To further evaluate vaccine impact including cross-protection and type replacement, we described high-risk (HR)-HPV type-specific cervical precancer incidence rates among women aged 20-39 years, 2008-2016. We analyzed cross-sectional population-based data on 18,344 cases of CIN2+ from a 5-site surveillance system. Diagnostic specimens were tested for individual HPV types, including 14 HR-HPV types (HPV16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59/66/68). We estimated age-specific annual HR-HPV type-specific CIN2+ incidence per 100,000 screened women for individual types, vaccine HR-HPV types (HPV16/18) and non-vaccine HR-HPV types (non-HPV16/18). We evaluated trends using average annual percent changes (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), and estimated total declines by comparing 2015-2016 to 2008-2009 using incidence rate ratios. Among 20-24-year-olds, HPV16/18-CIN2+ declined from 2008 through 2016 (AAPC: -21.3%, 95% CI: -28.1%, -13.8%), whereas no trend was observed for non-HPV16/18-CIN2+ (AAPC: -1.8%, 95% CI: -8.1%, 4.9%). After 2010, CIN2+ among 20-24-year-olds was more often caused by non-vaccine versus vaccine HR-HPV types. No significant declining trends were observed in older age groups. In 2015-2016 compared to 2008-2009, HPV16-CIN2+ declined 78%, HPV18-CIN2+ 72%, and HPV31-CIN2+ 51% among 20-24-year-olds; no increases were observed in type-specific CIN2+ incidence. Among 25-29-year-olds, HPV16-CIN2+ declined 18%; CIN2+ attributed to seven nonvaccine types increased significantly. No significant declines were observed in older groups. Significant declines in HPV16/18-CIN2+ in 20-24-year-olds and HPV16-CIN2+ in 25-29-year-olds corroborate impact of HPV vaccination. A declining trend in HPV31-CIN2+ is consistent with cross-protection from vaccination.

The potential of urine for human papillomavirus-related cervical cancer prevention

Cervical cancer is one of the most preventable cancers. The introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and the adaptation of regular screening programs are key actions that need to be generalized globally to achieve the goal of cervical cancer elimination. However, it is still challenging to achieve satisfactory coverage rate, and many women are reluctant to participate in gynecologic examination. In this article, we review the research on the application of HPV detection in urine samples for cervical cancer screening and vaccine monitoring, as well as discuss the technical challenges and new technological advancements in urine-based tests. HPV detection in urine is an excellent noninvasive alternative that is widely accepted by women, relatively affordable, and provides the potential to reach women without the necessity for clinical visits. Thus, it is an attractive tool for both cervical cancer screening and vaccine monitoring.

Identifying a Single Optimal Integrated Cervical Cancer Prevention Policy in Norway: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Interventions targeting the same disease but at different points along the disease continuum (e.g., screening and vaccination to prevent cervical cancer [CC]) are often evaluated in isolation, which can affect cost-effectiveness profiles and policy conclusions. We evaluated nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (9vHPV) compared with bivalent HPV vaccine (2vHPV) alongside deintensified screening intervals for a vaccinated birth cohort to inform a single optimal integrated CC prevention policy.

METHODS

Using a multimodeling approach, we evaluated the health and economic impacts of alternative CC screening strategies for a Norwegian birth cohort eligible for HPV vaccination in 2021 assuming they received 1) 2vHPV or 2) 9vHPV. We conducted 1) a restricted analysis that evaluated the optimal HPV vaccine under current screening guidelines; and 2) a comprehensive analysis including alternative screening and vaccination strategy combinations. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and evaluated them according to different cost-effectiveness thresholds.

RESULTS

Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of $40,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, we found that, while holding screening intensity fixed, switching the routine vaccination program in Norway from 2vHPV to 9vHPV would not be considered cost-effective (ICER of $132,700 per QALY gained). However, when allowing for varying intensities of CC screening, we found that switching to 9vHPV would be cost-effective compared with 2vHPV under an alternative threshold of $55,000 per QALY gained, if coupled with reductions in the number of lifetime screens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis highlights the importance of evaluating the full potential policy landscape for country-level decision makers considering policy adoption, including nonindependent primary and secondary prevention efforts, to draw appropriate conclusions and avoid sub-optimal outcomes.

HIGHLIGHTS

Without evaluating the full potential policy landscape, including primary and secondary prevention efforts, country-level decision makers may not be able to draw appropriate policy conclusions, resulting in suboptimal outcomes.An applied example from cervical cancer prevention in Norway compared a restricted analysis of current screening guidelines to a comprehensive analysis including alternative screening and vaccination strategy combinations.We found that a switch from bivalent to nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine would be considered cost-effective in Norway if coupled with reductions in the number of lifetime screens compared with the current screening strategy.A comprehensive analysis that considers how different types of interventions along the disease continuum affect each other will be critical for decision makers interpreting cost-effectiveness analysis results.

Human papillomavirus infection and seroprevalence among female university students in Mexico

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most common causes of sexually transmitted diseases, and the main etiology of cervical cancer. This study was aimed to assess type-specific cervical HPV prevalence and their association with HPV-specific antibodies in a cohort of female university students. HPV genotyping was performed by amplifying and sequencing a fragment of the L1 protein. A BLAST search was performed to identify HPV types. HPV-specific IgG antibodies were measured by ELISA in serum samples. A total of 129 women participated, with an average age of 21.75 years. The prevalence of vaginal HPV infection was 74.42%. The most predominant high-risk HPV types were 18 (13.95%), 31 (10.85%), and 16 (9.3%). We found that early age at coitarche and a higher number of sexual partners were significantly associated with a high prevalence of HPV infection. In addition to sexual behavior, we observed that the presence of serum-specific IgG antibodies against HPV can impact the prevalence of the virus. Seropositivity to HPV-16 and HPV-18 was associated with a lower prevalence of HPV-16, but not for other HPV types. Of note, there was a lower proportion of HPV-specific seropositivity in women who had the presence of the same HPV type in a cervical specimen, suggesting an immunoregulatory mechanism associated with the viral infection. In conclusion, the prevalence of HPV in university women was higher than expected and it was associated with early age of sexual debut, an increasing number of sexual partners, and a low proportion of HPV seropositivity.

Switching clinic-based cervical cancer screening programs to human papillomavirus self-sampling: A cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccinated and unvaccinated Norwegian women

Several countries have implemented primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical cancer screening. HPV testing enables home-based, self-collected sampling (self-sampling), which provides similar diagnostic accuracy as clinician-collected samples. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of switching an entire organized screening program to primary HPV self-sampling among cohorts of HPV vaccinated and unvaccinated Norwegian women. We conducted a model-based analysis to project long-term health and economic outcomes for birth cohorts with different HPV vaccine exposure, that is, preadolescent vaccination (2000- and 2008-cohorts), multiage cohort vaccination (1991-cohort) or no vaccination (1985-cohort). We compared the cost-effectiveness of switching current guidelines with clinician-collected HPV testing to HPV self-sampling for these cohorts and considered an additional 44 strategies involving either HPV self-sampling or clinician-collected HPV testing at different screening frequencies for the 2000- and 2008-cohorts. Given Norwegian benchmarks for cost-effectiveness, we considered a strategy with an additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year below $55 000 as cost-effective. HPV self-sampling strategies considerably reduced screening costs (ie, by 24%-40% across cohorts and alternative strategies) and were more cost-effective than clinician-collected HPV testing. For cohorts offered preadolescent vaccination, cost-effective strategies involved HPV self-sampling three times (2000-cohort) and twice (2008-cohort) per lifetime. In conclusion, we found that switching from clinician-collected to self-collected HPV testing in cervical screening may be cost-effective among both highly vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts of Norwegian women.

Disparities in HPV vaccine knowledge and adolescent HPV vaccine uptake by parental nativity among diverse multiethnic parents in New Jersey

Background

Suboptimal human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates persist among adolescents in the United States (U.S.). New Jersey (NJ), among the top, most racially/ethnically diverse states in the U.S., had among the lowest HPV vaccine initiation rates, prior to 2018. This study examined parental HPV vaccine knowledge and adolescent HPV vaccine initiation among multiethnic parents in NJ, where access to language concordant HPV vaccine information and vaccination services may differ, for immigrant parents.

Methods

We surveyed parents of adolescents (ages 11–18) at community events in NJ to examine parental HPV vaccine knowledge and adolescent HPV vaccine uptake. Vaccine knowledge was assessed using an 11-item question stem that covered vaccine efficacy, gender recommendation, vaccine protection, and myths. Multivariable models assessed the association of parent nativity on HPV vaccine knowledge scores and adolescent HPV vaccine initiation, controlling for sociodemographic factors.

Results

Of the 77 parents, most parents (84%) were aware of the HPV vaccine. However, knowledge scores were low and differed by parent nativity. Non-U.S. born parents had significantly lower knowledge scores − 1.7 [− 3.1, − 0.4] and lower odds of adolescent children initiating the HPV vaccine 0.3 [0.1, 0.9] compared to U.S.-born parents after adjusting demographic characteristics.

Conclusions

Our findings reveal that parental HPV vaccine knowledge remains low among suburban dwelling, immigrant parents, even though they have higher education and access to health care. Multilevel strategies to reduce missed opportunities for HPV vaccine education among parents and HPV vaccination for adolescents are needed, including for suburban, immigrant communities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12573-7.

Impact of Delaying Effective and Cost-Effective Policy Decisions: An Example From Cervical Cancer Prevention in Norway

Introduction. Delayed implementation of evidence-driven interventions has consequences that can be formally evaluated. In Norway, programs to prevent cervical cancer (CC)—screening and treatment of precancerous lesions and prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection—have been implemented, but each encountered delays in policy implementation. To examine the effect of these delays, we project the outcomes that would have been achieved with timely implementation of two policy changes compared with the de facto delays in implementation (in Norway). Methods. We used a multimodeling approach that combined HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to estimate the health outcomes and timeline for CC elimination associated with the implementation of two CC prevention policy decisions: a multicohort vaccination program of women up to age 26 years with bivalent vaccine in 2009 compared with actual “delayed” implementation in 2016, and a switch from cytology to primary HPV-based testing in 2015 compared with “delayed” rollout in 2020. Results. Timely implementation of two policy changes compared with current Norwegian prevention policy timeline could have averted approximately 970 additional cases (range of top 10 sets: 830–1060) and accelerated the CC elimination timeline by around 4 years (from 2039 to 2035). Conclusions. If delaying implementation of effective and cost-effective interventions is being considered, the decision-making process should include quantitative analyses on the effects of delays.

Real-world impact and effectiveness assessment of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine: a systematic review of study designs and data sources

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine effectiveness and impact studies are typically observational, generating evidence after vaccine launch in a real-world setting. For human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination studies, the variety of data sources and methods used is pronounced. Careful selection of study design, data capture and analytical methods can mitigate potential bias in such studies.

AREAS COVERED

We systematically reviewed the different study designs, methods, and data sources in published evidence (1/2007-3/2020), which assessed the quadrivalent HPV vaccine effectiveness and impact on cervical/cervicovaginal, anal, and oral HPV infections, anogenital warts, lesions in anus, cervix, oropharynx, penis, vagina or vulva, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.

EXPERT OPINION

The rapid growth in access to real-world data allows global monitoring of effects of different public health interventions, including HPV vaccination programs. But the use of data which are not collected or organized to support research also underscore a need to develop robust methodology that provides insight of vaccine effects and consequences of different health policy decisions. To achieve the WHO elimination goal, we foresee a growing need to evaluate HPV vaccination programs globally. A critical appraisal summary of methodology used will provide timely guidance to researchers who want to initiate research activities in various settings.

Human Papilloma Virus Vaccination: Focus on the Italian Situation

Human papilloma virus (HPV) is a viral agent whose transmission occurs mainly by sexual means. It causes different pathological conditions in both males and females, ranging from benign pathologies up to cancers. The introduction of vaccination has certainly had a major impact in terms of reducing the incidence of both HPV infections and diseases but in the European Union and the European Economic Area (EU/EEA) there are still about more than 13,000 deaths due to cervical cancer each year. To date in Europe and in Italy there are three vaccines available (bi-, tetra-, and nonvalent vaccines). The vaccination campaign started irregularly in Europe and Italy in 2007, with pre-adolescent girls as the primary target. Later, other cohorts were introduced such as 12-year-old boys, additional cohorts of >25-year-old women, women who already underwent cervical surgery and other subjects entitled to free vaccination. The COVID-19 pandemic has strongly impacted on public health services, particularly on vaccinations that, especially during the first pandemic phase, have been often delayed and/or canceled. The most affected vaccinations by the pandemic have been the non-mandatory ones, particularly those addressing the adolescent and adult population, such as immunization against papillomavirus. To date the achievement of the coverage target set by the Italian National Immunization Plan (NIP) has not yet been achieved. The aim of this work is to summarize the current situation in Italy and to discuss the strategies that have been implemented to increase overall vaccination coverage rates.

Single-Dose Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries-Time for Implementation?

Although cervical cancer is becoming a rare disease in high income regions, it is still a major health issue in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cervical cancer develops after infection with a high-risk human papilloma virus (hrHPV), an infection against which vaccination has been possible since 2006. Large population immunization programs have been organized in many higher income countries, and yet they have not been implemented in most of the lower and middle-income nations. The cost of the vaccine, as well as the need for two doses impedes coverage in the most vulnerable groups. Studies are suggesting the efficacy of single dose vaccination, but so far only observational data are available while large, randomized, double-blind studies are still ongoing. In order to prevent and combat this disease, it is essential to inform the population of vaccination benefits and offer accessible programs in higher as well as low-and middle-income countries. In this commentary, we wish to focus our attention on the case for implementing single dose vaccination in lower- and middle-income nations.

Regional differences in cervical cancer incidence and associated risk behaviors among Norwegian women: a population-based study

Background

Cervical cancer incidence is influenced by screening and risk factors in the population. The main risk factor for cervical cancer is sexually transmitted human papillomavirus (HPV), which is sexually transmitted and thus associated with sexual behavior. Smoking, parity and hormonal contraceptive use may also be associated with cervical cancer risk. We compared incidence, screening coverage and risk behaviors for cervical cancer between health regions in Norway.

Methods

We obtained data on incidence of cervical cancer among Norwegian women during 1992–2016 and data on screening coverage from the Cancer Registry of Norway. We obtained data on sexual behavior and smoking from a population-based survey of 16,575 Norwegian women who were 18–45 years old in 2005.

Results

Cervical cancer incidence was higher in the northern and southeastern region than in the middle and western region (range in incidence per 100,000 person-years during 1992–2016; north: 10.5 to 14.6; southeast: 9.3 to 12.9; mid: 6.8 to 9.5; west: 8.4 to 10.0). The incidence decreased modestly in the north (average annual percentage change (95% confidence interval) − 1.0 (− 1.2 to − 0.7)) and southeast (− 0.7 (− 1.0 to − 0.3)), but did not change significantly in the mid (− 0.3 (− 1.0 to 0.4)) and west (− 0.3 (− 0.6 to 0.0)). Compared to the national average, women in the north had earlier sexual debut, more partners and higher prevalence of ever having had a sexually transmitted infection (STI), while the opposite was observed among women in the west. Women in the middle and southeastern regions tended to be similar to the national average for sexual behaviors. Although less pronounced, the prevalence of smoking showed regional patterns similar to that observed for sexual behaviors, while ever-use of hormonal contraceptives and cervical screening coverage was similar between regions.

Conclusions

There were regional differences in cervical cancer incidence during the era of nationally organized cervical screening in Norway. To some extent, these differences corresponded to regional differences in risk behavior for cervical cancer in the Norwegian female population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08614-w.

Reduction of HPV16/18 prevalence in young women after eight years of three- and two-dose vaccination schemes

BACKGROUND

Recommendations for human papillomavirus vaccination have relied on immunogenicity studies and efficacy results derived from adult women. Insufficient information exists regarding HPV effectiveness in vaccinated girls as they become sexually active, regardless of dose scheme. We aimed to compare the prevalence of high-risk HPV between unvaccinated and vaccinated young women eight years after immunization.

METHODS

After eight years, we recontacted women who received two-dose of bivalent or three-dose-either bivalent or quadrivalent-, HPV vaccine when aged 9-10 years-old as part of a clinical trial. Additionally, we recruited a contemporaneous unvaccinated woman group for comparison. Only those sexually active were included. High-risk HPV DNA was determined in urine samples and compared across groups.

RESULTS

The prevalence of HPV16/18 types was 6.8% (95 %CI 3.2-14.1%) in the unvaccinated (n = 6/88), 1.1% (95 %CI 0.2-5.8%) in the three-dose (n = 1/93), and 0.0% (95 %CI 0.0-7.0%) in the two-dose group (n = 0/51).

CONCLUSION

HPV vaccination, with two-dose of bivalent or three-dose schemes-either with the bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine-, was associated with a lower prevalence of HPV16/18 types eight years after primary immunization.

Population Impact of Girls-Only Human Papillomavirus 16/18 Vaccination in The Netherlands: Cross-Protective and Second-Order Herd Effects

Background

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs achieve substantial population-level impact, with effects extending beyond protection of vaccinated individuals. We assessed trends in HPV prevalence up to 8 years postvaccination among men and women in the Netherlands, where bivalent HPV vaccination, targeting HPV types 16/18, has been offered to (pre)adolescent girls since 2009 with moderate vaccination coverage.

Methods

We used data from the PASSYON study, a survey initiated in 2009 (prevaccination) and repeated biennially among 16- to 24-year-old visitors of sexual health centers. We studied genital HPV positivity from 2009 to 2017 among women, heterosexual men, and unvaccinated women using Poisson generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for individual- and population-level confounders. Trends were studied for 25 HPV types detected by the SPF10-LiPA25 platform.

Results

A total of 6354 women (64.7% self-reported unvaccinated) and 2414 heterosexual men were included. Percentual declines in vaccine types HPV-16/18 were observed for all women (12.6% per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10.6–14.5]), heterosexual men (13.0% per year [95% CI, 8.3–17.5]), and unvaccinated women (5.4% per year [95% CI, 2.9–7.8]). We observed significant declines in HPV-31 (all women and heterosexual men), HPV-45 (all women), and in all high-risk HPV types pooled (all women and heterosexual men). Significant increases were observed for HPV-56 (all women) and HPV-52 (unvaccinated women).

Conclusions

Our results provide evidence for first-order herd effects among heterosexual men against HPV-16/18 and cross-protective types. Additionally, we show second-order herd effects against vaccine types among unvaccinated women. These results are promising regarding population-level and clinical impact of girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in a country with moderate vaccine uptake.

Postvaccination prevalence of vaccine-Human Papillomavirus (vHPV) genotypes among the target population: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are safe and are highly effective in reducing the prevalence of HPV infections and subsequent HPV associated diseases in the target population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out searching electronic databases for articles published between January 2007 and September 2020 reporting the prevalence estimates of vaccine HPV (vHPV) types in women who had received one or more doses of quadrivalent or bivalent vaccines. This systematic review was based on standard systematic review guidelines and the meta-analysis was performed by pooling the HPV vaccine type prevalence data with 95% confidence interval (CI) among 16,929 young women who had received the prophylactic HPV vaccines before the age of 27 years. The overall pooled prevalence of vHPV types was.0.04 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.05). The meta-analysis concludes that prophylactic HPV vaccination before the age of 27 years results in a decline of vHPV types in young women.

Systematic literature review of cross-protective effect of HPV vaccines based on data from randomized clinical trials and real-world evidence

BACKGROUND

The extent of cross-protection provided by currently licensed bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines versus direct protection against HPV 31-, 33-, 45-, 52-, and 58-related disease is debated. A systematic literature review was conducted to establish the duration and magnitude of cross-protection in interventional and observational studies.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCT) and observational studies published between 2008 and 2019 reporting on efficacy and effectiveness of HPV vaccines in women against non-vaccine types 31, 33, 45, 52, 58, and 6 and 11 (non-bivalent types). Key outcomes of interest were vaccine efficacy against 6- and 12-month persistent infection or genital lesions, and type-specific genital HPV prevalence or incidence. RCT data were analyzed for the according-to-protocol (bivalent vaccine) or negative-for-14-HPV-types (quadrivalent vaccine) efficacy cohorts.

RESULTS

Data from 23 RCTs and 33 observational studies evaluating cross-protection were extracted. RCTs assessed cross-protection in post-hoc analyses of small size subgroups. Among fully vaccinated, baseline HPV-naïve women, the bivalent vaccine showed statistically significant cross-protective efficacy, although with wide confidence intervals, against 6-month and 12-month persistent cervical infections and CIN2+ only consistently for HPV 31 and 45, with the highest effect observed for HPV 31 (range 64.6% [95% CI: 27.6 to 83.9] to 79.1% [97.7% CI: 27.6 to 95.9] for 6-month persistent infection; maximal follow-up 4.7 years). No cross-protection was shown in extended follow-up. The quadrivalent vaccine efficacy reached statistical significance for HPV 31 (46.2% [15.3-66.4]; follow-up: 3.6 years). Similarly, observational studies found consistently significant effectiveness only against HPV 31 and 45 with both vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

RCTs and observational studies show that cross-protection is inconsistent across non-vaccine HPV types and is largely driven by HPV 31 and 45. Furthermore, existing data suggest that it wanes over time; its long-term durability has not been established.

Surveillance systems for monitoring cervical cancer elimination efforts: Focus on HPV infection, cervical dysplasia, cervical screening and treatment

In order to achieve the global elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem, close surveillance of progress in public health and clinical activities and outcomes across the three pillars of vaccination, screening and treatment will be required. Surveillance should ideally occur within an integrated system that is planned, funded, and regularly evaluated to ensure it is providing timely, accurate and relevant feedback for action. In this paper, we conceptualise the main public health surveillance objectives as process and outcome measures in each of the three pillars. Process measures include coverage/participation measures for vaccination, screening and treatment alongside the ongoing assessment of the quality and reach of these programs and activities. Outcome measures related to the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection include HPV infection prevalence, precursor cervical lesions and cervical cancers (including stage at diagnosis, cancer incidence and mortality). These outcome measures can be used for monitoring the effectiveness of the three core activities in the short, medium and long term to assess whether these interventions are effectively reducing their occurrence. We discuss possible methods for the surveillance of these measures in the context of country capacity, drawing from examples in Australia, the USA and in low and middle income countries.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination: A model-based analysis

Following the global call for action by the World Health Organization to eliminate cervical cancer (CC), we evaluated how each CC policy decision in Norway influenced the timing of CC elimination, and whether introducing nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine would accelerate elimination timing and be cost-effective. We used a multi-modeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to estimate the CC incidence associated with six past and future CC prevention policy decisions compared with a pre-vaccination scenario involving 3-yearly cytology-based screening. Scenarios examined the introduction of routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with quadrivalent vaccine in 2009, a temporary catch-up program for females aged up to 26 years in 2016-2018 with bivalent vaccine, the universal switch to bivalent vaccine in 2017, expansion to include 12-year-old boys in 2018, the switch from cytology- to HPV-based screening for women aged 34-69 in 2020, and the potential switch to nonavalent vaccine in 2021. Introducing routine female vaccination in 2009 enabled elimination to be achieved by 2056 and prevented 17,300 cases. Cumulatively, subsequent policy decisions accelerated elimination to 2039. According to our modeling assumptions, switching to the nonavalent vaccine would not be considered 'good value for money' at relevant cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway unless the incremental cost was $19 per dose or less (range: $17-24) compared to the bivalent vaccine. CC control policies implemented over the last decade in Norway may have accelerated the timeframe to elimination by more than 17 years and prevented over 23,800 cases by 2110.

Concurrent infection with multiple human papillomavirus types among unvaccinated and vaccinated 17-year-old Norwegian girls

Background

Whether type-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) infection influences the risk of acquiring infections with other HPV types is unclear. We studied concurrent HPV infections in 17-year-old girls from 2 birth cohorts; the first vaccine-eligible cohort in Norway and a prevaccination cohort.

Methods

Urine samples were collected and tested for 37 HPV genotypes. This study was restricted to unvaccinated girls from the prevaccination cohort (n = 5245) and vaccinated girls from the vaccine-eligible cohort (n = 4904). Risk of HPV infection was modelled using mixed-effect logistic regression. Expected frequencies of concurrent infection with each pairwise combination of the vaccine types and high-risk types (6/11/16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59) were compared to observed frequencies.

Results

Infection with multiple HPV types was more common among unvaccinated girls than vaccinated girls (9.2% vs 3.7%). HPV33 and HPV51 was the only HPV pair that was detected together more often than expected among both unvaccinated (P = .002) and vaccinated girls (P < .001). No HPV pairs were observed significantly less often than expected.

Conclusions

HPV33 and HPV51 tended to be involved in coinfection among both unvaccinated and vaccinated girls. The introduction of HPV vaccination does not seem to have had an effect on the tendency of specific HPV types to cluster together.

Strong reduction in prevalence of HPV16/18 and closely related HPV types in sexually active adolescent women following the introduction of HPV vaccination in Argentina

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HPV16/18 decreased by >93% in vaccinated sexually active Argentine girls.

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Detected reduction of HPV31 and 45 would add to the success of immunization.

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No genotype replacement was observed.

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First HPV vaccination monitoring data reported from a Latin American country.

Defining Elimination of Genital Warts-A Modified Delphi Study

Background: Substantial declines in genital warts (GW) have been observed in countries with quadrivalent HPV vaccination programmes, with Australia showing the highest reductions due to early commencement and high vaccination coverage. There is a real potential to achieve GW elimination; however, no GW elimination definition exists. Taking Australia as a case study, we aimed to reach expert consensus on a proposed GW elimination definition using a modified Delphi process. Method: We used modelling and epidemiological data to estimate the expected number of new GW cases, from pre-vaccination (baseline) in 2006 to the year 2060 in Australian heterosexuals, men who have sex with men (MSM), and newly arrived international travellers and migrants. We used these data and the literature, to develop a questionnaire containing ten elimination-related items, each with 9-point Likert scales (1-strongly disagree; 9-strongly agree). The survey was completed by 18 experts who participated in a full day face-to-face modified Delphi study, in which individuals and then small groups discussed and scored each item. The process was repeated online for items where consensus (≥70% agreement) was not initially achieved. Median and coefficient of variation (COV) were used to describe the central tendency and variability of responses, respectively. Findings: There was a 95% participation rate in the face-to-face session, and 84% response rate in the final online round. The median item score ranged between 7.0 and 9.0 and the COV was ≤0.30 on all items. Consensus was reached that at ≥80% HPV vaccination coverage, GW will be eliminated as a public health problem in Australia by 2060. During this time period there will be a 95% reduction in population-level incidence compared with baseline, equivalent to <1 GW case per 10,000 population. The reductions will occur most rapidly in Australian heterosexuals, with 73%, 90% and 97% relative reductions by years 2021, 2030 and 2060, respectively. The proportion of new GW cases attributable to importation will increase from 3.6% in 2006 to ~49% in 2060. Interpretation: Our results indicate that the vaccination programme will minimise new GW cases in the Australian population, but importation of cases will continue. This is the first study to define GW elimination at a national level. The framework developed could be used to define GW elimination in other countries, with thresholds particularly valuable for vaccination programme impact evaluation. Funding: LK supported through an Australian Government Research Training Programme Scholarship; unconditional funding from Seqirus to support the Delphi Workshop.

An observational study comparing HPV prevalence and type distribution between HPV-vaccinated and -unvaccinated girls after introduction of school-based HPV vaccination in Norway

BACKGROUND

Many countries have initiated school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs. The real-life effectiveness of HPV vaccines has become increasingly evident, especially among girls vaccinated before HPV exposure in countries with high vaccine uptake. In 2009, Norway initiated a school-based HPV vaccination program for 12-year-old girls using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (Gardasil®), which targets HPV6, 11, 16, and 18. Here, we aim to assess type-specific vaginal and oral HPV prevalence in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated girls in the first birth cohort eligible for school-based vaccination (born in 1997).

METHODS

This observational, cross-sectional study measured the HPV prevalence ratio (PR) between vaccinated and unvaccinated girls in Norway. Facebook advertisement was used to recruit participants and disseminate information about the study. Participants self-sampled vaginal and oral specimens using an Evalyn® Brush and a FLOQSwab™, respectively. Sexual behavior was ascertained through a short questionnaire.

RESULTS

Among the 312 participants, 239 (76.6%) had received at least one dose of HPV vaccine prior to sexual debut. 39.1% of vaginal samples were positive for any HPV type, with similar prevalence among vaccinated and unvaccinated girls (38.5% vs 41.1%, PR: 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-1.41). For vaccine-targeted types there was some evidence of lower prevalence in the vaccinated (0.4%) compared to the unvaccinated (6.8%) group (PR: 0.06, 95%CI: 0.01-0.52). This difference remained after adjusting for sexual behavior (PR: 0.04, 95%CI: 0.00-0.42). Only four oral samples were positive for any HPV type, and all of these participants had received at least one dose of HPV vaccine at least 1 year before oral sexual debut.

CONCLUSION

There is evidence of a lower prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV types in the vagina of vaccinated girls from the first birth cohort eligible for school-based HPV vaccination in Norway; this was not the case when considering all HPV types or types not included in the quadrivalent HPV vaccine.

The impact of 10 years of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Australia: what additional disease burden will a nonavalent vaccine prevent?

Background: A National human papilloma virus (HPV) Vaccination Programme for the prevention of HPV infection and associated disease using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV) has been funded and implemented in Australia since 2007, initially for girls only and extended to boys in 2013, with uptake rates among the highest observed worldwide. Aim: We report on the impact of this national programme on HPV prevalence and associated disease burden and estimate the potential impact of adopting a nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine. Methods: We performed a non-systematic literature review of studies measuring the burden of HPV-associated disease and infection in Australia before and after introduction of HPV vaccination. We also included key national reports with estimates of HPV-related disease burden. Results: Substantial declines in high-grade cervical disease and genital warts among vaccine-eligible women have been observed. Reductions in genital warts incidence and HPV prevalence among heterosexual men of similar age were observed before introduction of the male vaccination programme, indicating a substantial herd effect. 9vHPV vaccine is expected to prevent up to 90% of cervical and 96% of anal cancers. Of an estimated 1,544 HPV-associated cancers in 2012, 1,242 would have been preventable by the 4vHPV vaccine and an additional 187 anogenital cancers by the 9vHPV vaccine. Conclusions: Vaccination using 4vHPV vaccine has had a large demonstrable impact on HPV-related disease in Australia. A switch to 9vHPV could further reduce the HPV-associated cancer burden. With continued high coverage among both males and females, elimination of vaccine-type HPV disease seems achievable in Australia.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in teenage heterosexual males following the implementation of female and male school-based vaccination in Australia: 2014-2017

BACKGROUND

Australia introduced a school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program for females aged 12-13 years in 2007, with a three-year catch-up to age 26; and for boys aged 12-13 from 2013, with a two-year catch-up to age 15. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of penile HPV between teenage heterosexual males in cohorts eligible or non-eligible for the school-based male vaccination program.

METHODS

Between 2014 and 2017, sexually active heterosexual males aged 17-19 were recruited from sexual health centres and community sources across Australia. Males provided a self-collected penile swab for 37 HPV genotypes using Roche Linear Array and completed a questionnaire. We calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of HPV between males in two periods: 2014-2015 (preceding implementation of school-based male vaccination) and 2016-2017 (eligible for school-based male vaccination). Self-reported vaccine doses were confirmed with doses reported to the National HPV Vaccination Program Register.

RESULTS

Overall, 152 males were recruited in 2014-2015 and 146 in 2016-2017. Numbers of female sex partners and condom use did not differ between the two periods. The prevalence of quadrivalent vaccine-preventable [4vHPV] genotypes (6/11/16/18) was low in both periods (2.6% [2014-15] versus 0.7% [2016-17]; p = 0.371; aPR 0.28 [95% CI: 0.03-2.62]). Compared with men in 2014-2015, men in 2016-2017 had a lower prevalence of any of the 37 HPV genotypes tested (21.7% versus 11.6%; aPR 0.62 [95% CI: 0.36-1.07]) and any of the 13 high-risk genotypes tested (15.8% versus 7.5%; aPR 0.59 [95% CI: 0.30-1.19]). Prevalence of low-risk HPV genotypes did not differ between the two periods. Of the males recruited in 2016-2017, 55% had received ≥1 vaccine dose.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of 4vHPV genotypes among teenage heterosexual males in both cohorts was low, presumably due to herd protection from the female-only vaccination program. Further studies are required to determine the impact of universal HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence in males.

Changes in Cervical Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Prevalence at a Youth Clinic in Stockholm, Sweden, a Decade After the Introduction of the HPV Vaccine

Aim: This study aimed to follow the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) catch-up and vaccination on the very high cervical HPV-prevalence in women at a youth clinic in central Stockholm during the period 2008–2018.

Background: 2008–2010, cervical HPV-prevalence (69.5%) and HPV16 prevalence (34.7%) were high in non-vaccinated women at a youth clinic in Stockholm. 2013–2015, after the introduction of the quadrivalent-Gardasil® HPV-vaccine, HPV16 and HPV6 prevalence had decreased. Here, cervical HPV-prevalence was investigated 10 years after primary sampling.

Material and Methods: 2017–2018, 178 cervical swabs, from women aged 15–23 years old, were tested for 27 HPV types by a bead-based multiplex method. HPV-prevalence data were then related to vaccination status and age and compared to HPV-prevalence in 615 samples from 2008 to 2010 and 338 samples from 2013 to 2015 from the same clinic, and to HPV types in 143 cervical cancer cases during 2003–2008 in Stockholm.

Results: The proportion of vaccinated women increased from 10.7% (2008–2010) to 82.1% (2017–2018). The prevalence of all 27 HPVs, all high-risk HPVs (HR-HPVs) and the combined presence of the quadrivalent-Gardasil® types HPV16, 18, 6, and 11, was lower in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated women (67.4 vs. 93.3%, p = 0.0031, 60.1 vs. 86.7%, p = 0.0057 and 5.8 vs. 26.7%, p = 0.002, respectively). Furthermore, HPV16 prevalence in non-vaccinated women 2017–2018 was lower than that in 2008–2010 (16.7 and 34.7%, respectively, p = 0.0471) and similar trends were observed for HPV18 and 11. In both vaccinated and non-vaccinated women, the most common non-quadrivalent-Gardasil® vaccine HR-HPV types were HPV39, 51, 52, 56, and 59. Together they accounted for around 9.8% of cervical cancer cases in Stockholm during 2003–2008, and their prevalence tended to have increased during 2017–2018 compared to 2008–2010.

Conclusion: Quadrivalent-Gardasil® vaccination has decreased HPV-vaccine type prevalence significantly. However, non-vaccine HR-HPV types remain high in potentially high-risk women at a youth clinic in Stockholm.

Would immunization be the same without cross-reactivity?

"Cross-reactivity" (the observed immune response against pathogen types not specifically targeted by the vaccine antigen composition) and "cross-protection" (clinical protection against related non-vaccine microorganism types) are vaccinology concepts that are attracting renewed interest in the context of disease prevention. National health authorities are collecting mounting evidence of the importance of cross-reactivity. For some vaccines, this has been substantiated by cross-protection data from clinical studies and/or post-licensure data, where their introduction into immunization programmes has shown beneficial impacts on disease caused by related non-vaccine microorganisms. This knowledge has influenced the way new vaccines are designed, developed, and evaluated in real-life settings. Some of the new vaccines are now designed with the specific aim of having a greater breadth of protection. Ideal vaccine antigens therefore include epitopes with conserved homology across related pathogen types, because it is not always possible to include the antigens of all the individual types of a given pathogen species. The use of novel adjuvants with greater immunostimulatory properties can also contribute to improved overall vaccine cross-reactivity, as could the use of antigen delivery platforms. The growing body of evidence allows us to better understand the full impact of vaccines - beyond vaccine-type disease - which should be taken into consideration when assessing the full value of vaccination programmes.