Long-term smoking relapse: a study using the british household panel survey

Change in vaping, smoking and dual-use identities predicts quit success and cigarette usage: A prospective study of people quitting smoking with electronic cigarette support

OBJECTIVE

Electronic cigarettes (ECs) are an efficacious support for some but not all people wishing to stop using tobacco. While advice and practical support have been identified as increasing quit success, little research has explored the role of changes in smoking and EC-related social identities.

METHODS

A prospective study following 573 people attempting to quit smoking with EC support. Self-report measures of identification with being a smoker, non-smoker, vaper and dual user (people using ECs and tobacco products) were taken prior to the quit attempt and at a 12-week follow-up.

RESULTS

Baseline identifications with being a smoker, non-smoker or dual user were not associated with smoking outcomes. Baseline vaper identity baseline was linked to more frequent tobacco abstinence at follow-up and lower levels of cigarette smoking. Levels of social identification at follow-up were consistently linked with outcomes, with vaper identity and non-smoking identities being protective and dual user identity being related to lower abstinence rates but decreased tobacco usage. Changes in identity over time were the most consistent predictor of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings have implications for smoking cessation practice, informing how and when identity-based interventions may be effective and our understanding of how identity transitions occur.

Risk of incident type 2 diabetes in male NAFLD and NAFLD-free smokers: a 7-year post-cessation study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the post-cessation T2DM risk in male NAFLD and NAFLD-free smokers in a 7-year cohort study.

METHODS

The study population was male adults who underwent annual health checkups in a 7-year cohort study. Recent quitters were categorized into four groups based on their weight gain during follow-up: < 0 kg, 0-1.9 kg, 2.0-3.9 kg, and ≥ 4.0 kg. Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for various variables, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between post-cessation weight gain and incident T2DM in NAFLD and NAFLD-free individuals.

RESULTS

At baseline, we included 1,409 NAFLD and 5150 NAFLD-free individuals. During a total of 39,259 person-years of follow-up, 222 (15.8%) NAFLD patients and 621 (12.1%) NAFLD-free participants quit smoking, with the corresponding means (standard deviations) of post-cessation weight gain being 2.24 (3.26) kg and 1.15 (3.51) kg, respectively. Among NAFLD individuals, compared to current smokers, the fully adjusted HRs (95% CI) for incident T2DM were 0.41 (0.06-3.01), 2.39 (1.21-4.70), 4.48 (2.63-7.63), and 6.42 (3.68-11.23) for quitters with weight gains < 0 kg, 0.0-1.9 kg, 2.0-3.9 kg, and ≥ 4.0 kg, respectively. For NAFLD-free individuals, we only observed a significant association between post-cessation weight gain ≥ 4.0 kg and the risk of incident T2DM (P < 0.001). Further analysis revealed that the impact of post-cessation weight gain on T2DM risk was not affected by alcohol consumption or obesity status at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Mild post-cessation weight gain significantly increased the risk of T2DM in male NAFLD patients but not in male NAFLD-free individuals. Therefore, it is recommended that individuals with NAFLD manage their weight after quitting smoking.

The trajectory of smoking cessation after treatment and its related factors in Taiwan

Smoking has multiple negative effects on health; therefore, the Taiwanese government provides smoking cessation clinics to smokers. This study aimed to explore the trajectory of smoking cessation after smokers received treatment and the variables related to different trajectories. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted, in which 735 adult smokers who received smoking cessation medications were recruited. The participants' demographic characteristics, chronic diseases, smoking characteristics, and cigarette dependence were collected from chart review. The amount of smoking was collected at baseline, and at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after treatment. The Proc Traj procedure for group-based modeling and multinomial logistic regression were used for statistical analysis. Three trajectories were identified: early quitters (28.03%), late quitters (11.43%) and reducers (60.54%). Compared with early quitters, reducers were younger and had a higher probability of severe cigarette dependence. Compared with early quitters, late quitters had a higher number of taking smoking cessation medications. The findings revealed that approximately 60% of participants who received smoking cessation treatment could not completely quit smoking, and that age, number of medications taken, and cigarette dependence were significant predictors of different trajectories.

A randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a culture and disease-specific, patient-centric multi-component tobacco cessation intervention package for the patients attending non-communicable disease clinics in Punjab, India

BACKGROUND

Developing an infrastructure to support tobacco cessation through existing systems and resources is crucial for ensuring the greatest possible access to cessation services. The present study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a newly developed multi-component cessation among tobacco users in Non- Communicable Disease (NCD) clinics, functioning under the National Programme for Prevention & Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases, & Stroke (NPCDCS) of the Government of India.

METHODS

The intervention package consisting of culture- and disease-specific four face-to-face counselling sessions, pamphlets, and short text messages (bilingual) with follow-ups at 3rd, 6th, and 9th months with an endline assessment at 12th months was delivered to the intervention arm of the two-arm- parallel group randomised controlled trial at two selected NCD clinics. Self-reported seven-day abstinence, frequency of use, expenditure in seven days at each follow-up, FTND score, stage of change and plasma cotinine values were assessed at baseline, follow-ups, and endline (using Liquid Chromatography -Mass Spectrometry), as applicable.

RESULTS

The intervention arm reported a significantly more reduction in self-reported frequency of tobacco use at 6 months (mean: 13.6, 95% CI (7.8-19.4)), 9 months (mean: 20.3, 95% CI (12.2-28.4)) and 12 months (mean: 18.7, 95% CI (8.7-28.7)). The plasma cotinine concentration at endline in the intervention arm was statistically significantly lower than the baseline concentration.

CONCLUSION

Strengthening existing health systems is crucial for offering cessation support in the resource-restraint setting of LMICs to assist in quitting sustainably.

Association of DNA methylation signatures with cognitive performance among smokers and ex-smokers

INTRODUCTION

Alterations in DNA methylation profiles have been associated with cancer, and can be influenced by environmental factors such as smoking. A small but growing literature indicates there are reproducible and robust differences in methylation levels among smokers, never smokers, and ex-smokers. Here, we compared differences in salivary DNA methylation levels among current and ex-smokers (at least 2 years abstinent).

METHODS

Smokers (n=26) and ex-smokers (n=30) provided detailed smoking histories, completed the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), and submitted a saliva sample. Whole-genome DNA methylation from saliva was performed, and ANCOVA models and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used for the differences between groups and the performance of significant CpG sites.

RESULTS

After controlling for race, age, and gender, smokers had significantly lower methylation levels than ex-smokers in two CpG sites: cg05575921 (AHRR) and cg21566642 (ALPPL2). Based on the ROC analyses, both CpGs had strong classification potentials (cg05575921 AUC=0.97 and cg21566642 AUC=0.93) in differentiating smoking status. Across all subjects, the percent methylation of cg05575921 (AHRR) and cg21566642 (ALPPL2) positively correlated with the length of the last quit attempt (r=0.65 and 0.64, respectively, p<0.001) and PASAT accuracy (r=0.29 and 0.30, respectively, p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In spite of the small sample size and preliminary research, our results replicate previously reported differences in AHRR hypomethylation among smokers. Furthermore, we show that the duration of smoking abstinence is associated with a recovery of methylation in ex-smokers, which may be linked to a reduced risk of smoking-associated diseases. The association with cognitive performance suggests that the hypomethylation of AHRR in saliva may reflect systemic exposure to cigarette-related toxicants that negatively affect cognitive performance, and should be validated in larger studies.

Association between smoking status and death from COVID-19 in South Korea: A nationwide cohort study

INTRODUCTION

This study examined the association between smoking status and death from COVID-19.

METHODS

This study used nationwide cohort data collected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, linking to information on all individuals who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The smoking status of subjects who participated twice in national health screenings between 2015 and 2018 was measured. This study investigated death from COVID-19 among those who tested positive from 1 January to 30 May 2020.

RESULTS

This study included 4259 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in Korea. After adjusting for all potential confounding factors, current smokers (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=3.75; 95% CI: 1.23-11.36) and recent quitters (AOR=3.74; 95% CI: 1.12-12.53) were associated with an increased risk of death from COVID-19 compared to never smokers. Compared with current smokers, long-term quitters (AOR=0.33; 95% CI: 0.11-0.95) and never smokers (AOR=0.27; 95% CI: 0.09-0.81) were associated with a reduced risk of death from COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking was associated with an increased risk of death among patients with COVID-19. Given the lower possibility of death in long-term quitters with COVID-19, continuous smoking cessation among smokers or recent quitters is needed.

Motivational support intervention to reduce smoking and increase physical activity in smokers not ready to quit: the TARS RCT

Background

Physical activity can support smoking cessation for smokers wanting to quit, but there have been no studies on supporting smokers wanting only to reduce. More broadly, the effect of motivational support for such smokers is unclear.

Objectives

The objectives were to determine if motivational support to increase physical activity and reduce smoking for smokers not wanting to immediately quit helps reduce smoking and increase abstinence and physical activity, and to determine if this intervention is cost-effective.

Design

This was a multicentred, two-arm, parallel-group, randomised (1 : 1) controlled superiority trial with accompanying trial-based and model-based economic evaluations, and a process evaluation.

Setting and participants

Participants from health and other community settings in four English cities received either the intervention (n = 457) or usual support (n = 458).

Intervention

The intervention consisted of up to eight face-to-face or telephone behavioural support sessions to reduce smoking and increase physical activity.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were carbon monoxide-verified 6- and 12-month floating prolonged abstinence (primary outcome), self-reported number of cigarettes smoked per day, number of quit attempts and carbon monoxide-verified abstinence at 3 and 9 months. Furthermore, self-reported (3 and 9 months) and accelerometer-recorded (3 months) physical activity data were gathered. Process items, intervention costs and cost-effectiveness were also assessed.

Results

The average age of the sample was 49.8 years, and participants were predominantly from areas with socioeconomic deprivation and were moderately heavy smokers. The intervention was delivered with good fidelity. Few participants achieved carbon monoxide-verified 6-month prolonged abstinence [nine (2.0%) in the intervention group and four (0.9%) in the control group; adjusted odds ratio 2.30 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 7.56)] or 12-month prolonged abstinence [six (1.3%) in the intervention group and one (0.2%) in the control group; adjusted odds ratio 6.33 (95% confidence interval 0.76 to 53.10)]. At 3 months, the intervention participants smoked fewer cigarettes than the control participants (21.1 vs. 26.8 per day). Intervention participants were more likely to reduce cigarettes by ≥ 50% by 3 months [18.9% vs. 10.5%; adjusted odds ratio 1.98 (95% confidence interval 1.35 to 2.90] and 9 months [14.4% vs. 10.0%; adjusted odds ratio 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.29)], and reported more moderate-to-vigorous physical activity at 3 months [adjusted weekly mean difference of 81.61 minutes (95% confidence interval 28.75 to 134.47 minutes)], but not at 9 months. Increased physical activity did not mediate intervention effects on smoking. The intervention positively influenced most smoking and physical activity beliefs, with some intervention effects mediating changes in smoking and physical activity outcomes. The average intervention cost was estimated to be £239.18 per person, with an overall additional cost of £173.50 (95% confidence interval -£353.82 to £513.77) when considering intervention and health-care costs. The 1.1% absolute between-group difference in carbon monoxide-verified 6-month prolonged abstinence provided a small gain in lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (0.006), and a minimal saving in lifetime health-care costs (net saving £236).

Conclusions

There was no evidence that behavioural support for smoking reduction and increased physical activity led to meaningful increases in prolonged abstinence among smokers with no immediate plans to quit smoking. The intervention is not cost-effective.

Limitations

Prolonged abstinence rates were much lower than expected, meaning that the trial was underpowered to provide confidence that the intervention doubled prolonged abstinence.

Future work

Further research should explore the effects of the present intervention to support smokers who want to reduce prior to quitting, and/or extend the support available for prolonged reduction and abstinence.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN47776579.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The cost-effectiveness of tailored smoking cessation interventions for people with severe mental illness: a model-based economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Tailored smoking cessation interventions, which combine behavioural and pharmaceutical support, are effective in populations with severe mental illness (SMI). We establish the cost-effectiveness of two tailored interventions in the UK: (i) a bespoke smoking cessation intervention (BSCI) versus usual care, and (ii) integrated tobacco cessation and mental health care (IC) versus standard smoking cessation clinic (SCC) referral.

METHODS

This economic evaluation was conducted between January 15th 2019 and August 4th 2022. We adapted a Markov model estimating smoking status, healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) across the lifetime. Intervention effectiveness and costs were obtained from a systematic review and a meta-analysis. We obtained specific parameter values for populations with SMI for mortality, risk of smoking related comorbidities, and health utility. Uncertainty was analysed in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA).

FINDINGS

The BSCI was cost-effective versus usual care with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3145 per QALY (incremental costs: £165; incremental QALYs: 0.05). Integrated care was cost-effective versus SCC with an ICER of £6875 per QALY (incremental costs: £292; incremental QALYs: 0.04). The BSCI and IC were cost-effective in 89% and 83% of PSA iterations respectively. The main area of uncertainty related to relapse rates.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggested that the tailored interventions were cost-effective and could increase QALYs and decrease expenditure on treating smoking related morbidities if offered to people with SMI.

FUNDING

York Health Economics Consortium was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to produce economic evaluations to inform public health guidelines.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Smoking Cessation Interventions With Behavioral Support: A Study Based on the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (BENESCO) Model

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have compared cost-effectiveness of different smoking cessation interventions (SCIs) that include behavioral support, considering smoking-related diseases. Therefore, we compare the cost-effectiveness of SCIs with behavioral support in South Korea using the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (BENESCO) model.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used the BENESCO model to estimate the cost and utility of the SCIs with behavioral support, including pharmacist counseling with nicotine replacement therapy (pharmacist+NRT), expert counseling with NRT (expert+NRT), and expert counseling with varenicline (expert+varenicline). The target population was adult smokers who wanted to cease smoking within 1 month. We applied transitional probabilities and epidemiological data from the literature. Medical costs and utilities were calculated using claims and national survey data, respectively. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated within the threshold (17 926 USD per quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]) by incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

The model cohort included 1 219 390 male and 298 511 female smokers. The pharmacist+NRT group had 32 842 more QALYs gained and 26 689 958 USD less expended than the expert+NRT group. The ICER for the expert+varenicline group versus the pharmacist+NRT and expert+NRT groups was 27 247 and 4074 USD per QALY, respectively. The robustness of the results was confirmed by sensitivity analyses, except for the discount rate and cost of the expert+varenicline group.

CONCLUSIONS

In Korea, pharmacist counseling with NRT showed higher QALY gains and lower costs than expert counseling with NRT. Expert counseling with varenicline was more effective for smoking cessation and more cost-effective than expert counseling with NRT but was not cost-effective compared with pharmacist counseling with NRT.

IMPLICATIONS

This study provides evidence for decision-making on smoking cessation programs by evaluating the cost-effectiveness of SCIs. Furthermore, we attempted to use the BENESCO model to compare and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of SCIs with behavioral support. It is meaningful because this study showed the availability of using the BENESCO model in the future cost-effectiveness analysis of various SCIs.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Nicotine Replacement Therapy Sampling in Primary Care: a Markov Cohort Simulation Model

BACKGROUND

Pharmacotherapies remain a central focus of successful tobacco control, but uptake remains very low.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost effectiveness of a primary care nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) sampling intervention.

DESIGN

A Markov cohort simulation model was constructed to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses. Clinical trial results were used to initialize the Markov model. All other model parameters were derived from the literature. The study was conducted over a lifetime horizon, from the payers' budgetary perspective.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers with a primary care visit.

INTERVENTION

Medication sampling, which provided short, starter packets of NRT (nicotine patch and lozenge) to smokers in the primary care setting.

MAIN MEASURES

Lifetime healthcare expenditures, quality-adjusted life years, and life years.

KEY RESULTS

Medication sampling was the dominant strategy compared to standard care. Our intervention cost $75, yielding a discounted lifetime savings of $1065 in healthcare expenditures, and increased both discounted quality-adjusted life years and discounted life years by 0.01. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that medication sampling remained dominant in plausible ranges except when it failed to increase cessation relative to standard care. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed that medication sampling was dominant in 94.1% of the simulated cases, with an implementation cost of $74 (95% CI $73-$76) and discounted lifetime savings in health expenditures of $1061 (- $1106 to - $1,017), increasing quality-adjusted life years by 0.008 (0.0085-0.0093) and life years by 0.008 (0.0081-0.0089).

CONCLUSION

Medication sampling, an easily implementable, scalable and low-cost intervention to encourage smoking cessation, is cost saving and improves quality of life.

Cognition, Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor Repressor Methylation, and Abstinence Duration-Associated Multimodal Brain Networks in Smoking and Long-Term Smoking Cessation

Cigarette smoking and smoking cessation are associated with changes in cognition and DNA methylation; however, the neurobiological correlates of these effects have not been fully elucidated, especially in long-term cessation. Cognitive performance, percent methylation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor (AHRR) gene, and abstinence duration were used as references to supervise a multimodal fusion analysis of functional, structural, and diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, in order to identify associated brain networks in smokers and ex-smokers. Correlations among these networks and with smoking-related measures were performed. Cognition-, methylation-, and abstinence duration-associated networks discriminated between smokers and ex-smokers and correlated with differences in fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations (fALFF) values, gray matter volume (GMV), and fractional anisotropy (FA) values. Long-term smoking cessation was associated with more accurate cognitive performance, as well as lower fALFF and more GMV in the hippocampus complex. The methylation- and abstinence duration-associated networks positively correlated with smoking-related measures of abstinence duration and percent methylation, respectively, suggesting they are complementary measures. This analysis revealed structural and functional co-alterations linked to smoking abstinence and cognitive performance in brain regions including the insula, frontal gyri, and lingual gyri. Furthermore, AHRR methylation, a promising epigenetic biomarker of smoking recency, may provide an important complement to self-reported abstinence duration.

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study

With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

Smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes: a systematic review, network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is one of the leading causes of early death. Varenicline [Champix (UK), Pfizer Europe MA EEIG, Brussels, Belgium; or Chantix (USA), Pfizer Inc., Mission, KS, USA], bupropion (Zyban; GlaxoSmithKline, Brentford, UK) and nicotine replacement therapy are licensed aids for quitting smoking in the UK. Although not licensed, e-cigarettes may also be used in English smoking cessation services. Concerns have been raised about the safety of these medicines and e-cigarettes.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes.

DESIGN

Systematic reviews, network meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analysis informed by the network meta-analysis results.

SETTING

Primary care practices, hospitals, clinics, universities, workplaces, nursing or residential homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers aged ≥ 18 years of all ethnicities using UK-licensed smoking cessation therapies and/or e-cigarettes.

INTERVENTIONS

Varenicline, bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy as monotherapies and in combination treatments at standard, low or high dose, combination nicotine replacement therapy and e-cigarette monotherapies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Effectiveness - continuous or sustained abstinence. Safety - serious adverse events, major adverse cardiovascular events and major adverse neuropsychiatric events.

DATA SOURCES

Ten databases, reference lists of relevant research articles and previous reviews. Searches were performed from inception until 16 March 2017 and updated on 19 February 2019.

REVIEW METHODS

Three reviewers screened the search results. Data were extracted and risk of bias was assessed by one reviewer and checked by the other reviewers. Network meta-analyses were conducted for effectiveness and safety outcomes. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using an amended version of the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes model.

RESULTS

Most monotherapies and combination treatments were more effective than placebo at achieving sustained abstinence. Varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard (odds ratio 5.75, 95% credible interval 2.27 to 14.90) was ranked first for sustained abstinence, followed by e-cigarette low (odds ratio 3.22, 95% credible interval 0.97 to 12.60), although these estimates have high uncertainty. We found effect modification for counselling and dependence, with a higher proportion of smokers who received counselling achieving sustained abstinence than those who did not receive counselling, and higher odds of sustained abstinence among participants with higher average dependence scores. We found that bupropion standard increased odds of serious adverse events compared with placebo (odds ratio 1.27, 95% credible interval 1.04 to 1.58). There were no differences between interventions in terms of major adverse cardiovascular events. There was evidence of increased odds of major adverse neuropsychiatric events for smokers randomised to varenicline standard compared with those randomised to bupropion standard (odds ratio 1.43, 95% credible interval 1.02 to 2.09). There was a high level of uncertainty about the most cost-effective intervention, although all were cost-effective compared with nicotine replacement therapy low at the £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year threshold. E-cigarette low appeared to be most cost-effective in the base case, followed by varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When the impact of major adverse neuropsychiatric events was excluded, varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline low plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When limited to licensed interventions in the UK, nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline standard.

LIMITATIONS

Comparisons between active interventions were informed almost exclusively by indirect evidence. Findings were imprecise because of the small numbers of adverse events identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined therapies of medicines are among the most clinically effective, safe and cost-effective treatment options for smokers. Although the combined therapy of nicotine replacement therapy and varenicline at standard doses was the most effective treatment, this is currently unlicensed for use in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

Researchers should examine the use of these treatments alongside counselling and continue investigating the long-term effectiveness and safety of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation compared with active interventions such as nicotine replacement therapy.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041302.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 59. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Smoking Cessation Interventions in People With Mental Disorders: A Dynamic Decision Analytical Model

OBJECTIVES

People with mental disorders are more likely to smoke than the general population. The objective of this study is to develop a decision analytical model that estimates long-term cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions in this population.

METHODS

A series of Markov models were constructed to estimate average lifetime smoking-attributable inpatient cost and expected quality-adjusted life-years. The model parameters were estimated using a variety of data sources. The model incorporated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. It also generated tables presenting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the proposed interventions with varying incremental costs and incremental quit rates. We used data from 2 published trials to demonstrate the model's ability to make projections beyond the observational time frame.

RESULTS

The average smoker's smoking-attributable inpatient cost was 3 times higher and health utility was 5% lower than ex-smokers. The intervention in the trial with a statistically insignificant difference in quit rate (19% vs 25%; P=.2) showed a 45% to 49% chance of being cost-effective compared with the control at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20 000 to £30 000/quality-adjusted life-years. The second trial had a significant outcome (quit rate 35.9% vs 15.6%; P<.001), and the corresponding probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 65%.

CONCLUSIONS

This model provides a consistent platform for clinical trials to estimate the potential lifetime cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions for people with mental disorders and could help commissioners direct resources to the most cost-effective programs. However, direct comparisons of results between trials must be interpreted with caution owing to their different designs and settings.

A Descriptive Analysis of Transitions from Smoking to Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) Use: A Daily Diary Investigation

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine patterns in smoking and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use over an extended period of time (up to 20 weeks) in people who smoked and who had never previously made a successful quit attempt using an ENDS.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a longitudinal mixed-methods study in Dunedin, New Zealand, during 2018 and 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Purposively selected participants (N = 45; age (≥18 years), gender, ethnicities, cigarettes/day) who wished to quit smoking.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were provided with a second-generation ENDS device (vape pen or starter "tank" device) at the start of their quit attempt, and asked to complete smartphone-based daily diary surveys assessing smoking and ENDS use.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Sunburst plots and a sequence plot were used to describe weekly and daily patterns of smoking and ENDS use (smoking only, ENDS use only, dual use, abstinent).

RESULTS

The most frequently reported movements among participants, classified according to their study week behaviour, occurred between dual use and exclusive ENDS use (and vice versa). A smaller group reported moving from dual use to exclusive smoking (and often back to dual use), and a small number reported moving between abstinence and different ENDS and smoked tobacco usage behaviours. Data visualisations focussing on those participants who had provided data during each of weeks 9-12 indicate that only a minority reported sustained dual use; instead, most participants indicated varied smoked tobacco and ENDS use, which included periods of dual use.

CONCLUSIONS

The considerable variety observed within and between study participants suggests that high variability is typical rather than exceptional. Transitions from smoking to ENDS use may involve considerable periods of dual use, which is likely to be dynamic and potentially sustained over several months.

Patterns and predictors of smoking relapse among inpatient smoking intervention participants: a 1-year follow-up study in Korea

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify relapse patterns in smokers who participated in an inpatient treatment program and to investigate factors related to relapse.

METHODS

The participants comprised 463 smokers who participated in an inpatient treatment operated by the Daejeon Tobacco Control Center from 2015 to 2018. Participants received high-intensity smoking cessation intervention for 5 consecutive days, including pharmacotherapy and behavioral support, and continued with follow-up for 1 year to determine whether they maintained smoking cessation after discharge from inpatient treatment. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were used in the analysis.

RESULTS

Participants' relapse rate within 1 year was 72.8%, and 59.8% of participants smoked again within 6 months after participation. A higher number of counseling sessions was significantly associated with a lower risk of relapse (hazard ratio [HR], 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17 to 0.32 for ≥9 vs. ≤5 counseling sessions). Conversely, higher relapse rates were significantly associated with the use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.43 to 2.55 for use vs. no use), and higher levels of baseline expired carbon monoxide (CO) (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.21 to 2.06 for expired CO concentrations of 10-19 ppm vs. expired CO concentrations <10 ppm).

CONCLUSIONS

High-intensity smoking cessation interventions in hospital settings can be effective for smoking cessation in smokers with high nicotine dependence. In addition, the results suggest that for quitters to maintain long-term abstinence, they should receive regular follow-up counseling for 1 year after completing a high-intensity smoking cessation intervention.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Smoking Cessation Interventions in the United Kingdom Accounting for Major Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events

OBJECTIVES

Smoking is a leading cause of death worldwide. Cessation aids include varenicline, bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and e-cigarettes at various doses (low, standard and high) and used alone or in combination with each other. Previous cost-effectiveness analyses have not fully accounted for adverse effects nor compared all cessation aids. The objective was to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of cessation aids in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

An established Markov cohort model was adapted to incorporate health outcomes and costs due to depression and self-harm associated with cessation aids, alongside other health events. Relative efficacy in terms of abstinence and major adverse neuropsychiatric events was informed by a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Base case results are reported for UK-licensed interventions only. Two sensitivity analyses are reported, one including unlicensed interventions and another comparing all cessation aids but removing the impact of depression and self-harm. The sensitivity of conclusions to model inputs was assessed by calculating the expected value of partial perfect information.

RESULTS

When limited to UK-licensed interventions, varenicline standard-dose and NRT standard-dose were most cost-effective. Including unlicensed interventions, e-cigarette low-dose appeared most cost-effective followed by varenicline standard-dose + bupropion standard-dose combined. When the impact of depression and self-harm was excluded, varenicline standard-dose + NRT standard-dose was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline low-dose + NRT standard-dose.

CONCLUSION

Although found to be most cost-effective, combined therapy is currently unlicensed in the United Kingdom and the safety of e-cigarettes remains uncertain. The value-of-information analysis suggested researchers should continue to investigate the long-term effectiveness and safety outcomes of e-cigarettes in studies with active comparators.

Smoking cessation, weight gain, cardiovascular risk, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Quitting smoking usually results in weight gain, rising the concern that weight gain after smoking cessation may attenuate the benefits of smoking quitting on cardiovascular health. We aimed to examine the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among smoking quitters compared with smokers, stratified by post-cessation weight change.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for eligible studies published before September 2020. Cohort studies examining the relative risk (RR) of CVD among smoking quitters stratified by post-cessation weight change, with smokers being treated as the reference, were included. Two investigators extracted the key characteristics of each included study using a standard electronic form.

RESULTS

We identified 9 studies for this meta-analysis. Compared with smokers, the pooled RRs (95% confidence interval) of CVD among quitters with weight gain and among those without were 0.74 [0.66, 0.83]) and 0.86 [0.80, 0.92]), with no evidence of heterogeneity between studies being observed. Moreover, the associations appeared to be significantly stronger among quitters with weight gain than those without, particularly in the analysis of coronary heart disease and stroke (pooled RRs = 0.65 [0.59, 0.71] vs. 0.79 [0.71, 0.88] for coronary heart disease and 0.67 [0.62, 0.73] vs. 0.76 [0.72, 0.81] for stroke, respectively; P for interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking cessation was associated with a significantly lower risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, regardless of post-cessation weight gain. A greater risk reduction among quitters with weight gain than those without merits further investigations.

Evaluation of long-term quitters: who stays smoke free forever?

BACKGROUND

Smoking cessation is one of the most powerful health promotion tools in the Western world. Behavioral group therapies are regarded as very promising interventions in this field. Quitting rates are usually evaluated after 6-12 months and lie between 30 and 45%. So far, there are no scientific data on potential protective indicators to remain successfully smoke free after this period. Therefore, the aim of this study was to detect the current smoking status of former participants of a cessation service in an urban German surrounding. We investigated reasons for relapses, quitting strategies, and psychosocial parameters.

METHODS

In 2019, 130 former patients (2011-2017; mean age 54 years; 37 pack/years; Fagerstroem = 5.75; 58.5% male, 41.5% female; 66% physical comorbidities; 35% psychiatric diagnoses) were invited to participate in a mailed survey (including WHO 5, SF 12, self-efficacy scale) and were asked about their current smoking status, personal history of smoking, and individual experiences with stopping after the 1‑year abstinence date.

RESULTS

A total of 53 persons replied (RR 41%), 29 (54%) of whom are currently smoke free; 24 relapsed intermittently or permanently, 9 experimented with e‑cigarettes, and 2 became dual users. Daily hassles as well as physical and mental challenges were the main reasons for relapsing.

CONCLUSION

Due to the low response rate, conclusions are limited; however, the 1‑year abstinence rate might not be as reliable as thought so far; long-term "sober" nicotine addicts remain at risk of relapse.

Stressful life events and electronic cigarette use during pregnancy

RATIONALE

Smoking during pregnancy poses a significant health risk for infant well-being. Prior research has linked experiencing stressful life events (SLEs) during pregnancy to prenatal smoking. However, extant research has not assessed whether SLEs experienced during pregnancy are a risk factor for prenatal electronic cigarette use.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the association between SLEs and electronic cigarette use during the third trimester of pregnancy.

METHODS

We employ data on 70,626 recent mothers from the 2016-2018 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System. Logistic and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between SLEs and electronic cigarette use during the third-trimester of pregnancy.

RESULTS

The prevalence of electronic cigarette use increased alongside an accumulating history of SLEs (0 SLEs = 0.4%; 1-2 SLEs = 0.9%; 3-5 SLEs = 1.9%; 6+ SLEs = 5.0%). Logistic regression models found 6 or more SLEs were associated with 4.7 times higher odds of electronic cigarette use relative to 0 SLEs after adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics (AOR = 4.705, 95% CI = 2.960, 7.479). Study findings also showed that women who experienced greater levels of SLEs had a higher prevalence of using any nicotine products (i.e., exclusive electronic cigarette user, exclusive cigarette user, dual user), relative to being a non-smoker. Findings from multinomial logistic regression models revealed that a higher number of SLEs was associated with an increased relative risk of all smoking outcomes. Still, these associations were particularly pronounced in the case of exclusive electronic cigarette user (ARR = 8.485, 95% CI = 4.900, 14.692) and dual-use (ARR = 8.348, 95% CI = 4.113, 16.945) when participants experienced 6 or more SLEs (relative to 0 SLEs).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the potentially harmful ramifications of electronic cigarette use during pregnancy there is a need for interventions that reduce stressful experiences and decrease smoking during pregnancy.

Cost Effectiveness of the Tips From Former Smokers® Campaign-U.S., 2012-2018

INTRODUCTION

Since 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has conducted the national Tips From Former Smokers® public education campaign, which motivates smokers to quit by featuring people living with the real-life health consequences of smoking. Cost effectiveness, from the healthcare sector perspective, of the Tips From Former Smokers® campaign was compared over 2012-2018 with that of no campaign.

METHODS

A combination of survey data from a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults that includes cigarette smokers and literature-based lifetime relapse rates were used to calculate the cumulative number of Tips From Former Smokers® campaign‒associated lifetime quits during 2012-2018. Then, lifetime health benefits (premature deaths averted, life years saved, and quality-adjusted life years gained) and healthcare sector cost savings associated with these quits were assessed. All the costs were adjusted for inflation in 2018 U.S. dollars. The Tips From Former Smokers® campaign was conducted and the survey data were collected during 2012-2018. Analyses were conducted in 2019.

RESULTS

During 2012-2018, the Tips From Former Smokers® campaign was associated with an estimated 129,100 premature deaths avoided, 803,800 life years gained, 1.38 million quality-adjusted life years gained, and $7.3 billion in healthcare sector cost savings on the basis of an estimated 642,200 campaign-associated lifetime quits. The Tips From Former Smokers® campaign was associated with cost savings per lifetime quit of $11,400, per life year gained of $9,100, per premature deaths avoided of $56,800, and per quality-adjusted life year gained of $5,300.

CONCLUSIONS

Mass-reach health education campaigns, such as Tips From Former Smokers®, can help smokers quit, improve health outcomes, and potentially reduce healthcare sector costs.

What kind of smoking identity following quitting would elevate smokers relapse risk?

BACKGROUND

Research has suggested that smokers who quit smoking and continue to identify themselves as a smoker versus a non-smoker are at greater risk of relapse. This study examines the relationship between post-quit smoker identities and relapse risk of former smokers in Australia and the UK comparing those who still identified as a smoker with firm choice to no longer smoke versus those not expressing a firm choice. Cross-country differences were examined.

METHODS

Data analysed came from 544 former smokers (quit 1 month or more) who participated in the Australian and UK Waves 9 (2013) and 10 (2014) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys. Post-quit smoker identities were assessed at baseline and smoking relapse at follow-up.

RESULTS

Baseline self-reported smoker identity independently predicted smoking relapse at 12-month follow-up (p < .01). Compared with the subgroup who identified themselves as smokers trying to quit, those who identified themselves as smokers who had chosen to no longer smoke (OR = 0.01, 95% CI = 0.01-0.25, p < .001), ex-smokers (OR = 0.05, CI = 0.01-0.25, p < .001) or non-smokers (OR = 0.07, CI = 0.02-0.37, p < .001) were less likely to relapse at follow-up. No cross-country differences were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Following quitting, smokers who maintained a smoker identity with a firm choice to no longer smoke or adopted a non-smoker or ex-smoker identity were less likely to relapse than those who failed to do so, suggesting that a clear rule/commitment to not smoke and/or a shift to a non-smoking identity may be protective of relapse.

Factors affecting success and abstinence within a smoking cessation clinic: A one-year follow-up study in Turkey

INTRODUCTION

Successful smoking cessation requires personal, environmental and pharmacological support. In our clinic, pharmacological treatment lasts up to three months. In this study, we aimed to investigate smoking cessation rates, the effects of follow-up visits and pharmacological therapies on smoking cessation in our smoking cessation clinic for one year.

METHODS

Our study included 505 patient files that were randomly selected from the 5271 patients who were admitted to our outpatient clinic for smoking cessation in 2015-2016 and at least one year has passed from treatment initiation. Patients, who agreed to participate in this study, provided information on their smoking cessation status, treatment duration and drug side effects. Data were recorded on electronic media for statistical analysis. Significance was evaluated at p<0.05.

RESULTS

Our study was conducted on 505 patients that were randomly selected, 309 (61.2%) males and 196 (38.8%) females. The mean age was 38.9±10.3 years. There were 313 (61.9%) participants who stopped smoking after treatment and 229 (45.3%) were not smoking currently. The smoking cessation rate of males (57.9%) was significantly lower than that of females (68.4%) (p=0.019). The rate of relapse of males (12.9%) was significantly lower than that of females (20.9%) (p=0.017). Side effects occurred in 68 (13.5%) patients, 32 taking varenicline and 36 taking bupropion.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, 45.3% of the patients had stopped smoking after one year. Smoking cessation rates were higher in the early stages of treatment than at late periods. Approximately half of the participants had never attended follow-up visits. Due to the low number of follow-up visits, both pharmacological treatment and motivational support were insufficient for effective smoking cessation therapy.

Cardiometabolic Morbidity and Mortality with Smoking Cessation, Review of Recommendations for People with Diabetes and Obesity

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity is closely linked with the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and whilst smoking cessation is associated with weight gain, there are concerns that this weight gain may offset the benefit of CVD risk reduction especially in those with considerable post-cessation weight gain. The aim of this narrative review is to evaluate recent evidence on smoking cessation and cardiometabolic outcomes and discuss limitations of current knowledge and studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Nicotine is a key player in modulating energy balance by influencing lipid storage in adipose tissue by affecting lipolysis, energy input by modulating appetite and energy output by increasing sympathetic drive and thermogenesis. It also increases insulin resistance and promotes abdominal obesity. The CVD risk and mortality associated with cigarette smoking potentiate the CVD risks in patients with diabetes. Evidence supports the benefit of quitting cigarette smoking regardless of any subsequent weight gain. Data suggests that the cardiometabolic risk is limited to the first few years and that cardiovascular health and mortality benefit of smoking cessation outweighs the harm related to weight gain. This weight gain can be limited by nicotine replacement of which e-cigarettes (vaping) are increasingly popular if it is not an alternative to cigarette smoking. However, long-term health data on e-cigarettes is needed prior to formal recommendation for its use in smoking cessation. The recommendation for cessation of cigarette smoking is justified for those at high risk of weight gain and diabetes. However, for most benefit, consideration should be given for personalized weight management to limit weight gain. Awareness of a 'lean paradox' by which lower weight is associated with increased CVD risk may help to improve motivation and insight into the bias of smoking, health and body composition otherwise known to epidemiologists as the 'obesity paradox'.

A Time-to-Event Model Relating Integrated Craving to Risk of Smoking Relapse Across Different Nicotine Replacement Therapy Formulations

Smoking increases the risk of cancer and other diseases, causing an estimated 7 million deaths per year. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) reduces craving for smoking, therefore, increasing an individual's probability to remain abstinent. In this work, we for the first time quantitatively described the relationship between craving and smoking abstinence, using retrospectively collected data from 19 studies, including 3 NRT formulations (inhaler, mouth spray, and patch) and a combination of inhaler and patch. Smokers motivated to quit were included in the NRT or placebo arms. Integrated craving (i.e., craving over a period of time) was assessed with 4-category, 5-category, or 100-mm visual analogue scale. The bounded integer model was used to assess latent craving from all scales. A time-to-event model linked predicted integrated craving to the hazard of smoking relapse. Available data included 9,323 adult subjects, observed for 3 weeks up to 2 years. At the study end, 9% (11% for NRT and 5% for placebo), on average, remained abstinent according to the protocol definition. A Gompertz-Makeham hazard best described the data, with a hazard of smoking relapse decreasing over time. Latent integrated craving was positively related to the hazard of smoking relapse, through a sigmoidal maximum effect function. For the same craving, being on NRT was found to reduce the hazard of relapse by an additional 30% compared with placebo. This work confirmed that low craving is associated with a high probability of remaining smoking abstinent and that NRT, in addition to reducing craving, increases the probability of remaining smoking abstinent.

Cost-effectiveness of e-cigarettes compared with nicotine replacement therapy in stop smoking services in England (TEC study): a randomized controlled trial

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of e-cigarettes as a smoking cessation aid used in routine stop smoking services in England.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS) perspective for 12-month periods and life-time. Costs, including that of both treatments, other smoking cessation help and health-care services, and health benefits, estimated from EQ-5D-5L and measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), for the 12-month analysis, came from a randomized controlled trial. Life-time analysis was model-based with input from both trial data and published secondary data sources. Cost-effectiveness was measured by an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

SETTING

Three stop-smoking service sites in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult smokers (n = 886) who sought help to quit in the participating sites.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

An e-cigarette (EC) starter kit versus provision of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) for up to 3 months, both with standard behavioural support. A total of 886 participants were randomized (439 in the EC arm, 447 in the NRT arm). Excluding one death in each arm, the 1-year quit rate was 18.0 and 9.9%, respectively.

MEASUREMENTS

Cost of treatments was estimated from the treatment log. Costs of other smoking cessation help and health-care services and EQ-5D-5 L were collected at baseline, 6- and 12-month follow-ups. Incremental costs and incremental QALYs were estimated using regression adjusting for baseline covariates and their respective baseline values.

FINDINGS

The ICER was £1100 per QALY gained at the 12 months after quit date (87% probability below £20 000/QALY). Markov model estimated the life-time ICER of EC to be £65 per QALY (85% probability below £20 000/QALY).

CONCLUSION

Using e-cigarettes as a smoking cessation aid with standard behavioural support in stop-smoking services in England is likely to be more cost-effective than using nicotine replacement therapy in the same setting.

Cost-effectiveness of population-level proactive tobacco cessation outreach among socio-economically disadvantaged smokers: evaluation of a randomized control trial

AIMS

To estimate the cost-effectiveness at population-level of the OPT-IN proactive tobacco cessation outreach program for adult smokers enrolled in publicly funded health insurance plans for low-income persons (e.g. Medicaid).

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a state transition model based on data from the Offering Proactive Treatment Intervention (OPT-IN) randomized control trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in Minnesota, USA, and the economic analysis was conducted from the Medicaid program perspective.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were used from 2406 smokers who were randomized into the intervention or comparator groups.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

The intervention was comprised of proactive outreach (mailed invitation and telephone calls) and free cessation treatment (nicotine replacement therapy and intensive telephone counseling). The comparator was usual care, which comprised access to a primary care physician, insurance coverage of Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved smoking cessation medications and the state's telephone quitline.

MEASUREMENTS

Smoking status, quality of life and health-care use at varying times, including at baseline and 1 year.

FINDINGS

The OPT-IN program cost an average of $84 per participant greater than the comparator. One year after randomization, the population-level, 6-month prolonged smoking abstinence rate was 16.5% in the proactive outreach intervention group and 12.1% in the usual care group (P < 0.05). The model projected that the proactive outreach intervention added $78 in life-time cost and generated 0.005 additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with an expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4231 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that the proactive outreach intervention would be cost-effective against a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY approximately 68% of the time.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level proactive tobacco treatment with personal telephone outreach was effective in achieving higher population-level quit rates and was cost-effective at various willingness-to-pay thresholds, compared with usual care (i.e. reactive treatment). Taken together with prior research, population-level proactive tobacco cessation outreach programs are judged to be highly cost-effective over the long term.

Smoking behavior and social contexts associated with smoking among dual-smoker couples

OBJECTIVES

To examine smoking behavior and social contexts related to smoking among dual-smoker couples.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional online survey study.

SAMPLE

A convenience sample of 183 dual-smoker couples.

MEASUREMENTS

Investigator-developed survey on smoking and related social contexts.

RESULTS

Participants smoked 16.0 cigarettes daily for 14.2 years; 48.4% shared more than half of their smoking time with their spouse. More than half made quit attempts in the past year individually (M = 5.3) and jointly (M = 2.5). Couples sharing more smoking time were more likely to be motivated to quit (p = .002), make quit attempts (p < .0001), and be interested in cessation interventions (p = .002); but less likely to implement home smoking bans (p < .001). Among those who reported quit attempts, 41% quit by themselves and 15.3% sought professional assistance. Most common reasons for relapse were chronic stress and crisis, 63.6%, however, were interested in smoking cessation services, preferably technology-based interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

We found smoking interdependence within dual-smoker couples. Despite high levels of motivation to quit, most did not utilize professional help, leading to low successful quit rates. Technology-based smoking cessation interventions incorporating spousal support and addressing stress/crisis may best assist dual-smoker couples.

E-cigarettes compared with nicotine replacement therapy within the UK Stop Smoking Services: the TEC RCT

BACKGROUND

Over the past few years, a large number of smokers in the UK have stopped smoking with the help of e-cigarettes. So far, UK Stop Smoking Services (SSSs) have been reluctant to include e-cigarettes among their treatment options because data on their efficacy compared with the licensed medications are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to compare the efficacy of refillable e-cigarettes and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, when accompanied by weekly behavioural support.

DESIGN

A randomised controlled trial comparing e-cigarettes and NRT.

SETTING

Three sites that provide local SSSs.

PARTICIPANTS

The participants were 886 smokers seeking help to quit smoking, aged ≥ 18 years, not pregnant or breastfeeding, with no strong preference to use or not to use NRT or e-cigarettes in their quit attempt, and currently not using NRT or e-cigarettes. A total of 886 participants were randomised but two died during the study (one in each study arm) and were not included in the analysis.

INTERVENTIONS

The NRT arm (n = 446) received NRT of their choice (single or combination), provided for up to 12 weeks. The e-cigarette arm (n = 438) received an e-cigarette starter pack and were encouraged to buy addtional e-liquids and e-cigarette products of their choice. Both arms received the same standard behavioural support. Participants attended weekly sessions at their SSS and provided outcome data at 4 weeks. They were then followed up by telephone at 6 and 12 months. Participants reporting abstinence or at least 50% reduction in cigarette consumption at 12 months were invited to attend for carbon monoxide (CO) validation. Participants/researchers could not be blinded to the intervention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was CO-validated sustained abstinence rates at 52 weeks. Participants lost to follow-up or not providing biochemical validation were included as non-abstainers. Secondary outcomes included abstinence at other time points, reduction in smoke intake, treatment adherence and ratings, elicited adverse reactions, and changes in self-reported respiratory health. A cost-efficacy analysis of the intervention was also conducted.

RESULTS

The 1-year quit rate was 9.9% in the NRT arm and 18.0% in the e-cigarette arm (risk ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval 1.30 to 2.58; p < 0.001). The e-cigarette arm had significantly higher validated quit rates at all time points. Participants in the e-cigarette arm showed significantly better adherence and experienced fewer urges to smoke throughout the initial 4 weeks of their quit attempt than those in the NRT arm, and gave their allocated product more favourable ratings. They were also more likely to be still using their allocated product at 1 year (39.5% vs. 4.3%, χ2 = 161.4; p < 0.001). Participants assigned to e-cigarettes reported significantly less coughing and phlegm at 1 year than those assigned to NRT (controlling for smoking status). A detailed economic analysis confirmed that, because e-cigarettes incur lower NHS costs than NRT and generate a higher quit rate, e-cigarette use is more cost-effective.

LIMITATIONS

The results may not be generalisable to other types of smokers or settings, or to cartridge-based e-cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Within the context of multisession treatment for smokers seeking help, e-cigarettes were significantly more effective than NRT. If SSSs provide e-cigarette starter packs, it is likely to boost their success rates and improve their cost-efficacy.

FUTURE WORK

The efficacy of e-cigarettes provided with different levels of support will show whether smokers should be encouraged to switch to vaping within support services or whether e-cigarettes can be recommended with less intensive or no support.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN60477608.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 43. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The trial was supported by the Cancer Research UK Prevention Trials Unit (grant A16893).

Does participation in voluntary organizations protect against risky alcohol and tobacco use? Findings from the UK panel data

Drawing on the literature that posits heterogeneous influences of social networks on health behaviors, we tested whether different forms of participation in voluntary organizations predicted more or less alcohol and tobacco consumption over time. (Access preregistration at https://osf.io/guzem/) We used panel data from younger (aged 14–29 at baseline), middle-aged (aged 40–50), and older (aged 65–75) UK adults, Ns = 1280–9073, followed from 1991 to 2014. Annual measures of smoking included status and intensity. Frequency of pub attendance was assessed biennially between 1996 and 2008. In 2010 and 2013, more precise measures of alcohol consumption were available. We conducted two-level regression analyses for the outcomes measured more than twice and residual change analyses for other outcomes. Over time (within persons), there were no significant effects on smoking. Activity in voluntary organizations predicted slightly less frequent pub attendance in younger adults. In residual change analyses, activity in voluntary organizations decreased last-week ethanol consumption and risk of heavy episodic drinking in younger women. These effects pertained mainly to service-orientated organizations. In middle-aged adults, membership and attendance at meetings of voluntary organizations predicted slightly more frequent pub attendance. Residual change analyses showed volunteering to reduce the risk of heavy episodic drinking in middle-aged men. In older adults, few significant effects emerged. Between persons, all indicators of participation were associated with less smoking, whereas membership was associated with more and activity with less frequent pub attendance. Thus, most associations between participation in voluntary organizations and substance use reflected interindividual differences.

•

Light/moderate drinkers and nonsmokers were civically engaged much more often.

•

Volunteering had isolated protective effects against heavy episodic drinking.

•

Participation in service-orientated organizations had similar effects.

•

There were no protective effects against smoking.

•

Few age and sex differences emerged.

Association between full monitoring of biomedical and lifestyle target indicators and HbA1c level in primary type 2 diabetes care: an observational cohort study (ELZHA-cohort 1)

OBJECTIVE

Management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) requires frequent monitoring of patients. Within a collective care group setting, doubts on the clinical effects of registration are a barrier for full adoption of T2DM registration in general practice. We explored whether full monitoring of biomedical and lifestyle-related target indicators within a care group approach is associated with lower HbA_1c levels.

DESIGN

Observational, real-life cohort study.

SETTING

Primary care data registry from the Hadoks (EerstelijnsZorggroepHaaglanden) care group.

EXPOSURE

The care group provides general practitioners collectively with organisational support to facilitate structured T2DM primary care. Patients are offered quarterly medical and lifestyle-related consultation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Full monitoring of each target indicator in patients with T2DM which includes minimally one measure of HbA_1c level, systolic blood pressure, LDL, BMI, smoking behaviour and physical exercise between January and December 2014; otherwise, patients were defined as 'incompletely monitored'. HbA_1c levels of 8137 fully monitored and 3958 incompletely monitored patients were compared, adjusted for the confounders diabetes duration, age and gender. Since recommended HbA_1c values depend on age, medication use and diabetes duration, analyses were stratified into three HbA_1c profile groups. Linear multilevel analyses enabled adjustment for general practice.

RESULTS

Compared with incompletely monitored patients, fully monitored patients had significantly lower HbA_1c levels (95% CI) in the first (-2.03 [-2.53 to -1.52] mmol/mol) (-0.19% [-0.23% to -0.14%]), second (-3.36 [-5.28 to -1.43] mmol/mol) (-0.31% [-0.48% to -0.13%]) and third HbA_1c profile group (-1.89 [-3.76 to -0.01] mmol/mol) (-0.17% [-0.34% to 0.00%]).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study shows that in a care group setting, fully monitored patients had significantly lower HbA_1c levels compared with incompletely monitored patients. Since this difference might have considerable clinical impact in terms of T2DM-related risks, this might help general practices in care group settings to overcome barriers on adequate registration and thus improve structured T2DM primary care. From population health management perspective, we recommend a systematic approach to adjust the structured care protocol for incompletely monitored subgroups.

Comparison of two smoking cessation interventions for inpatients

Objective:

This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of two cognitive behavioral therapy-based smoking cessation interventions initiated during hospitalization and to evaluate the factors related to relapse after discharge.

Methods:

This was a prospective randomized study involving 90 smokers hospitalized in a university hospital. We collected data related to sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for admission, smoking-related diseases, smoking history, the degree of nicotine dependence (ND), and the level of craving. Patients were divided into two treatment groups: brief intervention (BrInter, n = 45); and intensive intervention with presentation of an educational video (InInterV, n=45). To assess relapse, all patients were assessed by telephone interview in the first, third, and sixth months after discharge. Abstinence was confirmed by measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (eCO).

Results:

Of the 90 patients evaluated, 55 (61.1%) were male. The mean age was 51.1 ± 12.2 years. The degree of ND was elevated in 39 (43.4%), and withdrawal symptoms were present in 53 (58.9%). The mean eCO at baseline was 4.8 ± 4.5 ppm. The eCO correlated positively with the degree of ND (r = 0.244; p = 0.02) and negatively with the number of smoke-free days (r = −0.284; p = 0.006). There were no differences between the groups in terms of the variables related to socioeconomic status, smoking history, or hospitalization. Of the 81 patients evaluated at 6 months, 33 (40.7%) remained abstinent (9 and 24 BrInter and InInterV group patients, respectively; p = 0.001), and 48 (59.3%) had relapsed (31 and 17 BrInter and InInterV group patients, respectively; p= 0.001). Moderate or intense craving was a significant independent risk factor for relapse, with a relative risk of 4.0 (95% CI: 1.5-10.7; p < 0.00001).

Conclusions:

The inclusion of an educational video proved effective in reducing relapse rates. Craving is a significant risk factor for relapse.

A critical appraisal of the harm reduction argument for heat-not-burn tobacco products

Heat-not-burn products (HNBs) are efficient nicotine delivery devices that heat tobacco instead of burning it, as conventional cigarettes do. Since heating yields less carbon monoxide and other tobacco pyrolysis–derived toxicants, tobacco companies claim that HNBs are less harmful than conventional cigarettes are. Although this hypothesis is plausible, no long-term clinical trials and/or observational studies are available to corroborate it. To overcome barriers to the entry of tobacco products to the market, manufacturers of HNBs argue that they are a new wave of harm reduction alternatives. Nonetheless, even if HNBs were in fact less harmful than conventional cigarettes, they would still have the potential to cause nicotine addiction (a major health hazard) and other harms to smokers’ health. HNBs deliver nicotine, provide users a tobacco aroma and flavor and some rituals of smoking, and are supposedly safer than conventional cigarettes. Owing to these features, HNBs are likely to enhance smoking appeal and initiation among young persons and discourage smokers’ attempts to quit. In other words, if HNBs were freely available on the market, they would increase the prevalence of smoking. However, HNBs may constitute a harm reduction alternative for nicotine-dependent smokers who are unable or unwilling to quit smoking. Given these facts, approval of HNBs for use under medical supervision (prescription only), along with strict restrictions on advertising, is a balanced regulatory option that would reconcile the therapeutic needs of nicotine-addicted patients with the public heath goal of achieving a smoke-free generation in the near future.

Kick.it: The development of an evidence-based smoking cessation smartphone app

Currently, the evidence for mobile health (mHealth) smoking cessation interventions is limited and heterogeneous, warranting the need for innovative rigorously developed solutions. The aim of this study was to describe the development of a smoking cessation smartphone application (app) developed using evidence-based principles. The app (Kick.it) was designed using the Intervention Mapping framework, incorporating an extensive literature review and qualitative study, in combination with the Behavioural Change Taxonomy v1, the Theoretical Domains Framework, and the Persuasive System Design framework. Kick.it provides quit smoking education, skills training, motivational content and self-regulation functionality for smokers, as well as their social support network. By logging cravings and cigarettes smoked, users will create their own smoking profile, which will be used to provide tailored interventions. It hosts a social network to allow 24/7 social support and provides in-app tools to help with urges to smoke. The app aims to motivate smokers to retry if they slip-up or relapse, allowing them to learn from previous smoking cessation attempts. Rather than basing the app on a singular behavioral change approach, Kick.it will use elements stemming from a variety of behavioral approaches by combining methods of multiple psychological theories. The use of best-practice intervention development frameworks in conjunction with evidence-based behavioral change techniques is expected to result in a smartphone app that has an optimal chance of helping people to quit smoking.

Economic Impact of Financial Incentives and Mailing Nicotine Patches to Help Medicaid Smokers Quit Smoking: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

An RCT designed to increase Medicaid smokers' quitting success was conducted in California during 2012-2013. In the trial, alternative cessation treatment strategies were embedded in the state's ongoing quitline services. It found that modest financial incentives of up to $60 per participant and sending nicotine patches induced significantly higher cessation rates compared with usual care alone and usual care plus nicotine patches. Building upon that study, this study assessed potential population-level costs and benefits of integrating financial incentives and nicotine patches in a quitline setting for Medicaid smokers. A cost-benefit analysis was undertaken from the Medicaid program's perspective. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model was used to simulate future healthcare expenditures over a 10-year horizon for each treatment strategy for a study cohort of California Medicaid enrollees who were aged 35-64 years in 2014 (n=2,452,000). To simulate potential population-level benefits under each treatment strategy, each treatment was applied to all active smokers in the study cohort (n=478,300). Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying key parameters, such as cessation costs, discount rate, relapse rates, and time horizon. Adding both financial incentives and nicotine patches to usual quitline care would result in $15 million net savings over 10 years, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.30 compared with the usual care plus nicotine patches strategy. It would yield $44 million net savings, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.90 compared with usual care alone. The strategy of providing financial incentives and mailing nicotine patches directly to Medicaid smokers who call the quitline is cost saving. SUPPLEMENT INFORMATION: This article is part of a supplement entitled Advancing Smoking Cessation in California's Medicaid Population, which is sponsored by the California Department of Public Health.

Relapse to smoking and health-related quality of life: Secondary analysis of data from a study of smoking relapse prevention

Background

Previous studies have shown that smoking and smoking cessation may be associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL). In this study, we compared changes in HRQoL in people who maintained abstinence with people who had relapsed to smoking.

Methods

This was a secondary analysis of data from a trial of a relapse prevention intervention in 1,407 short-term quitters. The European Quality of Life -5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) measured HRQoL at baseline, 3 and 12 months. Smoking outcome was continuous abstinence from 2 to 12 months, and 7-day smoking at 3 and 12 months. We used nonparametric test for differences in EQ-5D utility scores, and chi-square test for dichotomised response to each of the five EQ-5D dimensions. Multivariable regression analyses were conducted to evaluate associations between smoking relapse and HRQoL or anxiety/depression problems.

Results

The mean EQ-5D tariff score was 0.8252 at baseline. People who maintained abstinence experienced a statistically non-significant increase in the EQ-5D score (mean change 0.0015, P = 0.88), while returning to smoking was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the EQ-5D score (mean change -0.0270, P = 0.004). After adjusting for multiple baseline characteristics, the utility change during baseline and 12 months was statistically significantly associated with continuous abstinence, with a difference of 0.0288 (95% CI: 0.0006 to 0.0571, P = 0.045) between relapsers and continuous quitters. The only difference in quality of life dimensions between those who relapsed and those who maintained abstinence was in the proportion of participants with anxiety/depression problems at 12 months (30% vs. 22%, P = 0.001). Smoking relapse was associated with a simultaneous increase in anxiety/depression problems.

Conclusions

People who achieve short-term smoking abstinence but subsequently relapse to smoking have a reduced quality of life, which appears mostly due to worsening of symptoms of anxiety and depression. Further research is required to more fully understand the relationship between smoking and health-related quality of life, and to develop cessation interventions by taking into account the impact of anxiety or depression on smoking.

Smoking Cessation, Weight Change, Type 2 Diabetes, and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Whether weight gain after smoking cessation attenuates the health benefits of quitting is unclear.

METHODS

In three cohort studies involving men and women in the United States, we identified those who had reported quitting smoking and we prospectively assessed changes in smoking status and body weight. We estimated risks of type 2 diabetes, death from cardiovascular disease, and death from any cause among those who had reported quitting smoking, according to weight changes after smoking cessation.

RESULTS

The risk of type 2 diabetes was higher among recent quitters (2 to 6 years since smoking cessation) than among current smokers (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12 to 1.32). The risk peaked 5 to 7 years after quitting and then gradually decreased. The temporary increase in the risk of type 2 diabetes was directly proportional to weight gain, and the risk was not increased among quitters without weight gain (P<0.001 for interaction). In contrast, quitters did not have a temporary increase in mortality, regardless of weight change after quitting. As compared with current smokers, the hazard ratios for death from cardiovascular disease were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.88) among recent quitters without weight gain, 0.47 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.63) among those with weight gain of 0.1 to 5.0 kg, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.42) among those with weight gain of 5.1 to 10.0 kg, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.60) among those with weight gain of more than 10.0 kg, and 0.50 (95% CI, 0.46 to 0.55) among longer-term quitters (>6 years since smoking cessation). Similar associations were observed for death from any cause.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking cessation that was accompanied by substantial weight gain was associated with an increased short-term risk of type 2 diabetes but did not mitigate the benefits of quitting smoking on reducing cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.

Quantifying population-level health benefits and harms of e-cigarette use in the United States

BACKGROUND

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) may help cigarette smokers quit smoking, yet they may also facilitate cigarette smoking for never-smokers. We quantify the balance of health benefits and harms associated with e-cigarette use at the population level.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Monte Carlo stochastic simulation model. Model parameters were drawn from census counts, national health and tobacco use surveys, and published literature. We calculate the expected years of life gained or lost from the impact of e-cigarette use on smoking cessation among current smokers and transition to long-term cigarette smoking among never smokers for the 2014 US population cohort.

RESULTS

The model estimated that 2,070 additional current cigarette smoking adults aged 25-69 (95% CI: -42,900 to 46,200) would quit smoking in 2015 and remain continually abstinent from smoking for ≥7 years through the use of e-cigarettes in 2014. The model also estimated 168,000 additional never-cigarette smoking adolescents aged 12-17 and young adults aged 18-29 (95% CI: 114,000 to 229,000), would initiate cigarette smoking in 2015 and eventually become daily cigarette smokers at age 35-39 through the use of e-cigarettes in 2014. Overall, the model estimated that e-cigarette use in 2014 would lead to 1,510,000 years of life lost (95% CI: 920,000 to 2,160,000), assuming an optimistic 95% relative harm reduction of e-cigarette use compared to cigarette smoking. As the relative harm reduction decreased, the model estimated a greater number of years of life lost. For example, the model estimated-1,550,000 years of life lost (95% CI: -2,200,000 to -980,000) assuming an approximately 75% relative harm reduction and -1,600,000 years of life lost (95% CI: -2,290,000 to -1,030,000) assuming an approximately 50% relative harm reduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the existing scientific evidence related to e-cigarettes and optimistic assumptions about the relative harm of e-cigarette use compared to cigarette smoking, e-cigarette use currently represents more population-level harm than benefit. Effective national, state, and local efforts are needed to reduce e-cigarette use among youth and young adults if e-cigarettes are to confer a net population-level benefit in the future.

The social networks of smokers attempting to quit: An empirically derived and validated classification

Social relationships play an important role in the uptake, maintenance, and cessation of smoking behavior. However, little is known about the natural co-occurrence of social network features in adult smokers' networks and how multidimensional features of the network may connect to abstinence outcomes. The current investigation examined whether qualitatively distinct subgroups defined by multiple characteristics of the social network could be empirically identified within a sample of smokers initiating a quit attempt. Egocentric social network data were collected from 1571 smokers (58% female, 83% white) engaged in a 3-year smoking cessation clinical trial. Using nine indicator variables reflecting both risk and protective network features, finite mixture models identified five social network subgroups: High Stress/High Contact, Large and Supportive, Socially Disconnected, Risky Friends and Low Contact, and High Contact with Smokers and Light Drinkers. External variables supported the validity of the identified subgroups and the subgroups were meaningfully associated with baseline demographic, psychiatric, and tobacco measures. The Socially Disconnected subgroup was characterized by little social interaction, low levels of stress, and low exposure to social environmental smoking cues, and had the highest probability of successful cessation at 1 week compared with all other social network subgroups. At 6 months posttreatment its members had higher abstinence rates than members of the High Stress/High Contact subgroup and the Risky Friends and Low Contact subgroup. The present study highlights the heterogeneity of smokers' social milieus and suggests that network features, especially those entailing exposure to smoking cues and contexts, heighten risk for smoking cessation failure. (PsycINFO Database Record

Changes in Veteran Tobacco Use Identified in Electronic Medical Records

INTRODUCTION

Electronic medical records represent a new source of longitudinal data on tobacco use.

METHODS

Electronic medical records of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs were extracted to find patients' tobacco use status in 2009 and at another assessment 12-24 months later. Records from the year prior to the first assessment were used to determine patient demographics and comorbidities. These data were analyzed in 2015.

RESULTS

An annual quit rate of 12.0% was observed in 754,504 current tobacco users. Adjusted tobacco use prevalence at follow-up was 3.2% greater with alcohol use disorders at baseline, 1.9% greater with drug use disorders, 3.3% greater with schizophrenia, and lower in patients with cancer, heart disease, and other medical conditions (all differences statistically significant with p<0.05). Annual relapse rates in 412,979 former tobacco users were 29.6% in those who had quit for <1 year, 9.7% in those who had quit for 1-7 years, and 1.9% of those who had quit for >7 years. Among those who had quit for <1 year, adjusted relapse rates were 4.3% greater with alcohol use disorders and 7.2% greater with drug use disorders (statistically significant with p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

High annual cessation rates may reflect the older age and greater comorbidities of the cohort or the intensive cessation efforts of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. The lower cessation and higher relapse rates in psychiatric and substance use disorders suggest that these groups will need intensive and sustained cessation efforts.

A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes

In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available.

Late smoking relapse among adolescent quitters

Whereas some data are available about late smoking relapse among adult quitters, there are none for teen quitters. This study is a 6-year follow-up of teen quitters (n=253) for whom we collected (retrospectively) data on the extent and timing of relapse. We found that even after a strictly defined quit (six-months prolonged abstinence) at one year, substantial relapse occurred both early and late: the majority (55%) of relapses occurred after the 0-1year interval after having quit. These findings have implication for the need for research into the relapse process for teen quitters, and for the need to develop interventions for teens (as for adults) to prevent (early and) late relapse.

Rationalizations and identity conflict following smoking relapse: a thematic analysis

Introduction: Little is known about how smokers respond cognitively and emotionally to the experience of “late” relapse after the acute withdrawal phase. This study assessed the kinds of thoughts and feelings that emerge in order to provide a basis for quantitative research assessing prevalence of different types of response and implications for future quit attempts.

Methods: Face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted among 14 people attending a quit smoking clinic in Malaysia who had relapsed after at least 6 weeks of abstinence. Transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis to enable emergence of important aspects of the experience.

Results: Following relapse, smokers often engaged in rationalizations and activities to minimize worry about the harmful effects of smoking by switching to a lower-tar cigarette, reducing the number of cigarette smoked, attempting to reduce cigarette smoke inhalation, comparing themselves with other smokers, and minimizing the health risks associated with smoking. In some cases, smokers retained a “non-smoker” identity despite having relapsed.

Conclusion: Smoking relapsers rationalize their failure to quit and minimize their health risk in order to protect their image as non-smokers while it remains a source of identity conflict.

Estimating the number of quit attempts it takes to quit smoking successfully in a longitudinal cohort of smokers

OBJECTIVES

The number of quit attempts it takes a smoker to quit successfully is a commonly reported figure among smoking cessation programmes, but previous estimates have been based on lifetime recall in cross-sectional samples of successful quitters only. The purpose of this study is to improve the estimate of number of quit attempts prior to quitting successfully.

DESIGN

We used data from 1277 participants who had made an attempt to quit smoking in the Ontario Tobacco Survey, a longitudinal survey of smokers followed every 6 months for up to 3 years beginning in 2005. We calculated the number of quit attempts prior to quitting successfully under four different sets of assumptions. Our expected best set of assumptions incorporated a life table approach accounting for the declining success rates for subsequent observed quit attempts in the cohort.

RESULTS

The estimated average number of quit attempts expected before quitting successfully ranged from 6.1 under the assumptions consistent with prior research, 19.6 using a constant rate approach, 29.6 using the method with the expected lowest bias, to 142 using an approach including previous recall history.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous estimates of number of quit attempts required to quit may be underestimating the average number of attempts as these estimates excluded smokers who have greater difficulty quitting and relied on lifetime recall of number of attempts. Understanding that for many smokers it may take 30 or more quit attempts before being successful may assist with clinical expectations.

The Quit Experience and Concerns of Smokers With Psychiatric Illness

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to better understand the quit experience and concerns of smokers with psychiatric illness (i.e., major depressive, anxiety, psychotic and bipolar disorders) in comparison with those without psychiatric illness.

METHODS

Smokers (N=732) with (n=430, 59%) and without psychiatric illness, recruited between June 2010 and March 2013 to participate in the FLEX (Flexible and Extended Dosing of Nicotine Replacement Therapy [NRT] and Varenicline in Comparison to Fixed-Dose NRT for Smoking Cessation) smoking-cessation trial, completed questionnaires assessing previously used cessation aids and reasons for relapse, and motivation and concerns about their upcoming quit attempt. These supplementary data analyses were conducted in May 2015.

RESULTS

The most commonly used cessation methods during previous attempts were nicotine replacement therapy (66.4%), cold turkey (59.7%), and bupropion (34.7%); no group differences were identified. Stress was the most common precipitator of relapse during previous attempts in all groups (43.6%), particularly among participants with depression and anxiety. Health was the most common motivation for the upcoming quit attempt (91%), followed by family/social pressures (28.1%) and cost (27.9%, particularly by smokers with psychotic disorders). Common pre-cessation concerns for the complete sample included: cravings (27.6%), stress (26.7%), and fear of failure (26%); participants with psychotic and anxiety disorders were most concerned about cravings, whereas the latter two concerns were more prominent for individuals with anxiety.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings reveal differences in the quit histories and concerns of smokers with or without psychiatric illness. Smokers with psychiatric illness are particularly vulnerable to relapse at times of stress and negative affect; interventions that emphasize alternative coping strategies and facilitate mood management are required.

Cost Effectiveness of Free Access to Smoking Cessation Treatment in France Considering the Economic Burden of Smoking-Related Diseases

CONTEXT

In France more than 70,000 deaths from diseases related to smoking are recorded each year, and since 2005 prevalence of tobacco has increased. Providing free access to smoking cessation treatment would reduce this burden. The aim of our study was to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of providing free access to cessation treatment taking into account the cost offsets associated with the reduction of the three main diseases related to smoking: lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). To measure the financial impact of such a measure we also conducted a probabilistic budget impact analysis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov state-transition model that compared free access to cessation treatment to the existing coverage of €50 provided by the French statutory health insurance, taking into account the cost offsets among current French smokers aged 15-75 years. Our results were expressed by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in 2009 Euros per life year gained (LYG) at the lifetime horizon. We estimated a base case scenario and carried out a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainty. Assuming a participation rate of 7.3%, the ICER value for free access to cessation treatment was €3,868 per LYG in the base case. The variation of parameters provided a range of ICER values from -€736 to €15,715 per LYG. In 99% of cases, the ICER for full coverage was lower than €11,187 per LYG. The probabilistic budget impact analysis showed that the potential cost saving for lung cancer, COPD and CVD ranges from €15 million to €215 million at the five-year horizon for an initial cessation treatment cost of €125 million to €421 million.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that providing medical support to smokers in their attempts to quit is very cost-effective and may even result in cost savings.

Does Effectiveness of Adolescent Smoking-Cessation Intervention Endure Into Young Adulthood? 7-Year Follow-Up Results from a Group-Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

The Hutchinson Study of High School Smoking was the first randomized trial to show effectiveness of a smoking cessation intervention on 6-months prolonged smoking abstinence at one year post-intervention in a large population-based sample of adolescent smokers. An important question remains: Do the positive effects from teen smoking cessation interventions seen at up to 12 months post-intervention endure into young adulthood? This study examines for the first time whether such positive early effects from teen smoking cessation intervention can endure into young adulthood in the absence of additional intervention.

METHODS

High school smokers (n = 2,151) were proactively recruited into the trial from fifty randomly selected Washington State high schools randomized to the experimental (Motivational Interviewing + Cognitive Behavioral Skills Training telephone counseling intervention) or control (no intervention) condition. These smokers were followed to 7 years post high school to ascertain rates of six-year prolonged smoking abstinence in young adulthood. All statistical tests are two-sided.

RESULTS

No evidence of intervention impact at seven years post high school was observed for the main endpoint of six-year prolonged abstinence, neither among all smokers (14.2% in the experimental condition vs. 13.1% in the control condition, difference = +1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -3.4 to 5.8, p = .61), nor among the subgroups of daily smokers and less-than-daily smokers, nor among other a priori subgroups. But, observed among males was some evidence of an intervention impact on two endpoints related to progress towards quitting: reduction in number of days smoked in the past month, and increase in the length of the longest quit attempt in the past year.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence from this trial among adolescent smokers that positive effectiveness of the proactive telephone intervention for smoking abstinence, observed previously at one year post-intervention, was sustained for the long-term into young adulthood. In light of the positive short-term effectiveness consistently observed from this and other trials for teen smokers, together with the lack of evidence from this study that such short-term impact can endure into young adulthood, sustained interventions that continue into young adulthood should be developed and tested for long-term impact.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00115882.