The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

Methods to Adjust for Confounding in Test-Negative Design COVID-19 Effectiveness Studies: Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are investigating exposures of increasing complexity accounting for time since vaccination. These studies require methods that adjust for the confounding that arises when morbidities and demographics are associated with vaccination and the risk of outcome events. Methods based on propensity scores (PS) are well-suited to this when the exposure is dichotomous, but present challenges when the exposure is multinomial.

OBJECTIVE

This simulation study aimed to investigate alternative methods to adjust for confounding in VE studies that have a test-negative design.

METHODS

Adjustment for a disease risk score (DRS) is compared with multivariable logistic regression. Both stratification on the DRS and direct covariate adjustment of the DRS are examined. Multivariable logistic regression with all the covariates and with a limited subset of key covariates is considered. The performance of VE estimators is evaluated across a multinomial vaccination exposure in simulated datasets.

RESULTS

Bias in VE estimates from multivariable models ranged from -5.3% to 6.1% across 4 levels of vaccination. Standard errors of VE estimates were unbiased, and 95% coverage probabilities were attained in most scenarios. The lowest coverage in the multivariable scenarios was 93.7% (95% CI 92.2%-95.2%) and occurred in the multivariable model with key covariates, while the highest coverage in the multivariable scenarios was 95.3% (95% CI 94.0%-96.6%) and occurred in the multivariable model with all covariates. Bias in VE estimates from DRS-adjusted models was low, ranging from -2.2% to 4.2%. However, the DRS-adjusted models underestimated the standard errors of VE estimates, with coverage sometimes below the 95% level. The lowest coverage in the DRS scenarios was 87.8% (95% CI 85.8%-89.8%) and occurred in the direct adjustment for the DRS model. The highest coverage in the DRS scenarios was 94.8% (95% CI 93.4%-96.2%) and occurred in the model that stratified on DRS. Although variation in the performance of VE estimates occurred across modeling strategies, variation in performance was also present across exposure groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, models using a DRS to adjust for confounding performed adequately but not as well as the multivariable models that adjusted for covariates individually.

Impact of COVID-19 vaccination on hospitalization, hospital utilization and expenditure for COVID-19: A retrospective cohort analysis of a South African private health insured population

This study quantifies the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on hospitalization for COVID-19 infection in a South African private health insurance population. This retrospective cohort study is based on the analysis of demographic and claims records for 550,332 individuals belonging to two health insurance funds between 1 March 2020 and 31 December 2022. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to estimate the impact of vaccination (non-vaccinated, partly vaccinated, fully vaccinated) on COVID-19 hospitalization risk; and zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to estimate the impact of vaccination on hospital utilization and hospital expenditure for COVID-19 infection, with adjustments for age, sex, comorbidities and province of residence. In comparison to the non-vaccinated, the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 was 94.51% (aHR 0.06, 95%CI 0.06, 0.07) and 93.49% (aHR 0.07, 95%CI 0.06, 0.07) lower for the partly and fully vaccinated respectively; hospital utilization was 17.70% (95% CI 24.78%, 9.95%) and 20.04% (95% CI 28.26%, 10.88%) lower; the relative risk of zero hospital days was 4.34 (95% CI 4.02, 4.68) and 18.55 (95% CI 17.12, 20.11) higher; hospital expenditure was 32.83% (95% CI 41.06%, 23.44%) and 55.29% (95% CI 61.13%, 48.57%) lower; and the relative risk of zero hospital expenditure was 4.38 (95% CI 4.06, 4.73) and 18.61 (95% CI 17.18, 20.16) higher for the partly and fully vaccinated respectively. Taken together, findings indicate that all measures of hospitalization for COVID-19 infection were significantly lower in the partly or fully vaccinated in comparison to the non-vaccinated. The use of real-world data and an aggregated level of analysis resulted in the study having several limitations. While the overall results may not be generalizable to other populations, the findings add to the evidence based on the impact of COVID-19 vaccination during the period of the pandemic.

Debulking influenza and herpes simplex virus strains by a wide-spectrum anti-viral protein formulated in clinical grade chewing gum

Lack of Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) vaccine, low vaccination rates of Influenza viruses, waning immunity and viral transmission after vaccination underscore the need to reduce viral loads at their transmission sites. Oral virus transmission is several orders of magnitude higher than nasal transmission. Therefore, in this study, we evaluated neutralization of viruses using a natural viral trap protein (FRIL) formulated in clinical-grade chewing gum. FRIL is highly stable in the lablab bean powder (683 days) and in chewing gum (790 days), and fully functional (794 days) when stored at ambient temperature. They passed the bioburden test with no aerobic bacteria, yeasts/molds, with minimal moisture content (1.28-5.9%). Bean gum extracts trapped HSV-1/HSV-2 75-94% in a dose-dependent manner through virus self-aggregation. Mastication simulator released >50% release of FRIL within 15 min of chewing the bean gum. In plaque reduction assays, >95% neutralization of H1N1 and H3N2 required ∼40 mg/mL, HSV-1 160 mg/mL, and HSV-2 74 mg/mL of bean gum for 1,000 copies/mL virus particles. Therefore, a 2000 mg bean gum tablet has more than adequate potency for clinical evaluation and is safe with no detectable levels of glycosides. These observations augur well for evaluating bean gum in human clinical studies to minimize virus infection/transmission.

Nirsevimab Effectiveness Against Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in the Primary Care Setting

OBJECTIVES

This study assesses the effectiveness of nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody, in preventing medically attended respiratory syncytial virus-lower respiratory tract infections (RSV-LRTIs) in a large primary care network in Spain, in both overall and catch-up infants aged younger than 10 months.

METHODS

The 2023-2024 immunization campaign with nirsevimab in Spain targeted all infants born after April 1, 2023. Those born after October 1 received it at birth in hospitals, whereas others received it through a catch-up program. The MEDIPRIM network of primary care centers recruited all infants with LRTI for RSV polymerase chain reaction testing and employed a test-negative design approach to estimate the effectiveness of nirsevimab.

RESULTS

The study included 160 infants; 141 (88%) of them received nirsevimab and 128 belonged to the catch-up group (88% received nirsevimab). Overall, RSV was detected in 44 infants (27.5%). Within the catch-up group, 37 (28.9%) were positive for RSV. The overall effectiveness was 75.8% (95% credible interval: 40.4-92.7), and 80.2% (95% credible interval: 44.3-95.4) in infants belonging to the catch-up group.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the effectiveness of nirsevimab in preventing medically attended LRTI in infants in outpatient settings and emphasizes the importance of a catch-up immunization program to reduce the disease burden in primary care.

Real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in people with HIV compared with a matched HIV-negative cohort: A test-negative design

OBJECTIVES

We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infection among a statewide cohort of people with HIV (PWH) and compared the estimates with a matched cohort of people without HIV (PWoH) in South Carolina (SC), USA.

METHODS

A population-based cohort was retrieved from statewide electronic health records between January 2, 2021, and April 14, 2022, during which several variants were circulating in SC (i.e., Alpha, Delta, Omicron). We compared the odds of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls using logistic regression models for both SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes. The VE was derived as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

A total of 7279 test episodes in PWH and 72,790 matched test episodes in PWoH were included for analysis, representing 6561 unique PWH and 67,521 unique PWoH. The peak level of VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred 7-59 days after receipt of the second dose of vaccine (PWH: 61.20%; PWoH: 67.09%), followed by a waning protective effect 90-119 days after the second dose in both PWH (35.80%) and PWoH (47.57%), where PWH had a proportionally lower and declined faster VE. Regarding the VE against severe outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, a relatively higher level of protection was maintained in both populations (complete primary series: PWH: 69.06%; PWoH: 60.63%).

CONCLUSIONS

A complete primary series of COVID-19 vaccines offered significant protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes in both PWH and PWoH populations, although this wanes with time. However, the estimate of VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection appeared lower in PWH than in PWoH and the degree of waning over time was relatively quicker in PWH.

The economic rationale for cell-based influenza vaccines in children and adults: A review of cost-effectiveness analyses

Seasonal influenza significantly affects both health and economic costs in children and adults. This narrative review summarizes published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of cell-based influenza vaccines in children and adults <65 years of age, critically assesses the assumptions and approaches used in these analyses, and considers the role of cell-based influenza vaccines for children and adults. CEAs from multiple countries demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc) compared with egg-based trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (TIVe/QIVe). CEA findings were consistent across models relying on different relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) estimate inputs, with the rVE of QIVc versus QIVe ranging from 8.1% to 36.2% in favor of QIVc. Across multiple scenarios and types of analyses, QIVc was consistently cost-effective compared with QIVe, including in children and adults across different regions of the world.

Evaluation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness from 2021 to 2024: A Guangdong-Based Test-Negative Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

The influenza virus's high mutation rate requires the annual reformulation and administration of the vaccine. Therefore, its vaccine effectiveness (VE) must be evaluated annually.

AIM

Estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine and analyze the impact of age, seasonal variations, and the vaccination to sample collection interval on VE.

METHODS

The study used a test-negative case-control (TNCC) design to collect data from patients under 18 years of age who presented with acute respiratory infection (ARI) symptoms and underwent influenza virus testing at a national children's regional medical center in Guangdong Province between October 2021 and January 2024, spanning three influenza seasons. VE was estimated using unconditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 27,670 patient data entries were analyzed. The VE against all influenza viruses across the three seasons was 37% (95% CI: 31-43), with the lowest VE of 24% (95% CI: 8-37) observed in the 2021-2022 season. In children aged 0.5 to <3 years, the VE was 32% (95% CI: 19-43). The effectiveness for samples collected at intervals of 0.5-2 months, 3-6 months, and over 6 months after vaccination was 39% (95% CI: 32-46), 30% (95% CI: 19-40), and 28% (95% CI: 5-46).

CONCLUSIONS

Across three influenza seasons, at least one-third of vaccinated individuals were protected from influenza in outpatient settings. Given that children are at high risk, improving vaccination management is recommended, and parents should be encouraged to vaccinate their children before each influenza season.

Reduced Effectiveness of Repeat Influenza Vaccination: Distinguishing Among Within-Season Waning, Recent Clinical Infection, and Subclinical Infection

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season by 1 week. After accounting for waning VE, we determined that repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for A(H3N2) (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21) but not influenza B or A(H1N1). We documented clinical infection influenced individuals' decision to vaccinate in the following season while protecting against clinical infection of the same type/subtype. However, adjusting for recent documented clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. In contrast, we found that adjusting for subclinical or undocumented infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Additional investigation is needed to determine the impact of subclinical infections on vaccine effectiveness.

Postpandemic fluctuations of regional respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization epidemiology: potential impact on an immunization program in Switzerland

RSV hospitalization epidemiology is subject to rapid changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the prospect of vaccine prevention. The purpose of this report is to characterize recent epidemiologic and clinical fluctuations and to analyze their potential impact on an immunization program with nirsevimab. This is a 2018-2024 retrospective analysis of all hospitalizations caused by RSV in patients below 16 years of age occurring at an academic Children's Hospital that serves a defined population. We simulated the vaccine impact against RSV hospitalization by applying the expected effects of the infant immunization program with nirsevimab proposed in Switzerland to observed case counts. We analyzed 1339 hospitalizations. The consecutive occurrence of two major epidemics in 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 had never been recorded previously. The 2023-2024 season witnessed a major shift to older age. Only 61% of patients were below 12 months of age, while prepandemic long-term surveillance since 1997 found a range between 64 and 85% (median, 73%). Age below 3 months, prematurity, airway anomalies, congenital heart disease, and neuromuscular disorders were independently associated with ICU admission. Simulation of the vaccine impact using two scenarios of coverage and efficacy (scenario 1, 50% and 62%, respectively; scenario 2, 90% and 90%) and three different age distributions resulted in an infant vaccine impact of 31.0% (scenario 1) and 81.0% (scenario 2), respectively. Vaccine impact for all patients below 16 years ranged from 22.7 to 24.9% (scenario 1) and 54.2 to 68.8% (scenario 2).

CONCLUSION

RSV hospitalization epidemiology was characterized by substantial variability in patient age on admission. As the proposed RSV immunization program primarily targets infants, year-to-year fluctuation of cases among older children will cause a variability of vaccine impact of approximately 15%. This information may be useful for physicians and hospital administrators when they anticipate the resources needed during the winter season.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• RSV hospitalization epidemiology was subject to massive disturbances during the COVID-19 pandemic. • Extended half-life monoclonal antibodies and active maternal immunization offer new means of passive protection of infants against severe RSV disease.

WHAT IS NEW

• We demonstrate substantial year-to-year fluctuation of the age distribution at the time of RSV hospitalization. • Up to 40% of annual RSV hospitalizations in a given season occur in children above 12 months of age who do not benefit from maternal RSV immunization and may not be eligible for receipt of a monoclonal antibody.

Measuring the Vaccine Success Index: A Framework for Long-Term Economic Evaluation and Monitoring in the Case of Rotavirus Vaccination

New vaccination programs measure economic success through cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) based on an outcome evaluated over a certain time frame. The reimbursement price of the newly approved vaccine is then often reliant on a simulated ideal effect projection because of limited long-term data availability. This optimal cost-effectiveness result is later rarely adjusted to the observed effect measurements, barring instances of market competition-induced price erosion through the tender process. However, comprehensive and systematic monitoring of the vaccine effect (VE) for the evaluation of the real long-term economic success of vaccination is critical. It informs expectations about vaccine performance with success timelines for the investment. Here, an example is provided by a 15-year assessment of the rotavirus vaccination program in Belgium (RotaBIS study spanning 2005 to 2019 across 11 hospitals). The vaccination program started in late 2006 and yielded sub-optimal outcomes. Long-term VE surveillance data provided insights into the infection dynamics, disease progression, and vaccine performance. The presented analysis introduces novel conceptual frameworks and methodologies about the long-term economic success of vaccination programs. The CEA evaluates the initial target vaccination population, considering vaccine effectiveness compared with a historical unvaccinated group. Cost-impact analysis (CIA) covers a longer period and considers the whole vaccinated and unvaccinated population in which the vaccine has direct and indirect effects. The economic success index ratio of CIA over CEA outcomes evaluates long-term vaccination performance. Good performance is close to the optimal result, with an index value ≤1, combined with a low CEA. This measurement is a valuable aid for new vaccine introductions. It supports the establishment of robust monitoring protocols over time.

Effectiveness of nirsevimab against RSV-bronchiolitis in paediatric ambulatory care: a test-negative case-control study

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower-respiratory-tract infection in children. Nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody against RSV, was implemented in a few countries in September 2023. However, its post-license effectiveness in ambulatory care settings is unknown. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of nirsevimab against RSV-bronchiolitis in outpatients aged <12 months.

Methods

We conducted a test-negative case-control study based on a national ambulatory surveillance system. We included all infants aged <12 months who had bronchiolitis and results of an RSV rapid antigen test performed, visiting a network of 107 ambulatory paediatricians from September 15, 2023, to February 1, 2024. Case patients were infants with bronchiolitis and a rapid antigen test positive for RSV. Control patients were infants with bronchiolitis and a rapid antigen test negative for RSV. Effectiveness was assessed by a logistic regression model adjusted for potential confounders. A range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the findings.

Findings

We included 883 outpatients who had bronchiolitis and results of an RSV rapid antigen test (453 were case patients, and 430 were control patients). Overall, 62/453 (13.7%) case patients and 177/430 (41.2%) control patients had been previously immunised for nirsevimab. The adjusted effectiveness of nirsevimab against RSV-bronchiolitis was 79.7% (95% CI 67.7-87.3). Sensitivity analyses gave similar results.

Interpretation

This post-license study indicates that nirsevimab was effective in preventing RSV-bronchiolitis in ambulatory care settings.

Funding

The study was supported by Association Clinique et Thérapeutique Infantile du Val de Marne (ACTIV), French Pediatrician Ambulatory Association (AFPA) and unrestricted grants from GSK, MSD, Pfizer and Sanofi.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness and Progress Towards a Universal Influenza Vaccine

At various times in recent decades, surges have occurred in optimism about the potential for universal influenza vaccines that provide strong, broad, and long-lasting protection and could substantially reduce the disease burden associated with seasonal influenza epidemics as well as the threat posed by pandemic influenza. Each year more than 500 million doses of seasonal influenza vaccine are administered around the world, with most doses being egg-grown inactivated subunit or split-virion vaccines. These vaccines tend to have moderate effectiveness against medically attended influenza for influenza A(H1N1) and influenza B, and somewhat lower for influenza A(H3N2) where differences between vaccine strains and circulating strains can occur more frequently due to antigenic drift and egg adaptations in the vaccine strains. Several enhanced influenza vaccine platforms have been developed including cell-grown antigen, the inclusion of adjuvants, or higher antigen doses, to improve immunogenicity and protection. During the COVID-19 pandemic there was unprecedented speed in development and roll-out of relatively new vaccine platforms, including mRNA vaccines and viral vector vaccines. These new platforms present opportunities to improve protection for influenza beyond existing products. Other approaches continue to be explored. Incremental improvements in influenza vaccine performance should be achievable in the short to medium term.

Hypothesis testing and sample size considerations for the test-negative design

The test-negative design (TND) is an observational study design to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) that enrolls individuals receiving diagnostic testing for a target disease as part of routine care. VE is estimated as one minus the adjusted odds ratio of testing positive versus negative comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Although the TND is related to case-control studies, it is distinct in that the ratio of test-positive cases to test-negative controls is not typically pre-specified. For both types of studies, sparse cells are common when vaccines are highly effective. We consider the implications of these features on power for the TND. We use simulation studies to explore three hypothesis-testing procedures and associated sample size calculations for case-control and TND studies. These tests, all based on a simple logistic regression model, are a standard Wald test, a continuity-corrected Wald test, and a score test. The Wald test performs poorly in both case-control and TND when VE is high because the number of vaccinated test-positive cases can be low or zero. Continuity corrections help to stabilize the variance but induce bias. We observe superior performance with the score test as the variance is pooled under the null hypothesis of no group differences. We recommend using a score-based approach to design and analyze both case-control and TND. We propose a modification to the TND score sample size to account for additional variability in the ratio of controls over cases. This work enhances our understanding of the data generating mechanism in a test-negative design (TND) and how it is distinct from that of a case-control study due to its passive recruitment of controls.

Vaccine effectiveness in reducing COVID-19-related hospitalization after a risk-age-based mass vaccination program in a Chilean municipality: A comparison of observational study designs

BACKGROUND

Case-control studies involving test-negative (TN) and syndrome-negative (SN) controls are reliable for evaluating influenza and rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) during a random vaccination process. However, there is no empirical evidence regarding the impact in real-world mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 using TN and SN controls.

OBJECTIVE

To compare in the same population the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on COVID-19-related hospitalization rates across a cohort design, TN and SN designs.

METHOD

We conducted an unmatched population-based cohort, TN and SN case-control designs linking data from four data sources (public primary healthcare system, hospitalization registers, epidemiological surveillance systems and the national immunization program) in a Chilean municipality (Rancagua) between March 1, 2021 and August 31, 2021. The outcome was COVID-19-related hospitalization. To ensure sufficient sample size in the unexposed group, completion of follow-up in the cohort design, and sufficient time between vaccination and hospitalization in the case-control design, VE was estimated comparing 8-week periods for each individual.

RESULTS

Among the 191,505 individuals registered in the primary healthcare system of Rancagua in Chile on March 1, 2021; 116,453 met the cohort study's inclusion criteria. Of the 9,471 hospitalizations registered during the study period in the same place, 526 were COVID-19 cases, 108 were TN controls, and 1,628 were SN controls. For any vaccine product, the age- and sex-adjusted vaccine effectiveness comparing fully and nonvaccinated individuals was 67.2 (55.7-76.3) in the cohort design, whereas it was 67.8 (44.1-81.4) and 77.9 (70.2-83.8) in the TN and SN control designs, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The VE of a COVID-19 vaccination program based on age and risk groups tended to differ across the three observational study designs. The SN case-control design may be an efficient option for evaluating COVID-19 VE in real-world settings.

Test-Negative Study Designs for Evaluating Vaccine Effectiveness

This JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods article explains the test-negative study design, an observational study design routinely used to estimate vaccine effectiveness, and examines its use in a study that estimated the performance of messenger RNA boosters against the Omicron variant.

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease among children in the United States between 2010 and 2019: An indirect cohort study

BACKGROUND

A U.S. case-control study (2010-2014) demonstrated vaccine effectiveness (VE) for ≥ 1 dose of the thirteen-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against vaccine-type (VT) invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) at 86 %; however, it lacked statistical power to examine VE by number of doses and against individual serotypes.

METHODS

We used the indirect cohort method to estimate PCV13 VE against VT-IPD among children aged < 5 years in the United States from May 1, 2010 through December 31, 2019 using cases from CDC's Active Bacterial Core surveillance, including cases enrolled in a matched case-control study (2010-2014). Cases and controls were defined as individuals with VT-IPD and non-PCV13-type-IPD (NVT-IPD), respectively. We estimated absolute VE using the adjusted odds ratio of prior PCV13 receipt (1-aOR x 100 %).

RESULTS

Among 1,161 IPD cases, 223 (19.2 %) were VT cases and 938 (80.8 %) were NVT controls. Of those, 108 cases (48.4 %; 108/223) and 600 controls (64.0 %; 600/938) had received > 3 PCV13 doses; 23 cases (17.6 %) and 15 controls (2.4 %) had received no PCV doses. VE ≥ 3 PCV13 doses against VT-IPD was 90.2 % (95 % Confidence Interval75.4-96.1 %), respectively. Among the most commonly circulating VT-IPD serotypes, VE of ≥ 3 PCV13 doses was 86.8 % (73.7-93.3 %), 50.2 % (28.4-80.5 %), and 93.8 % (69.8-98.8 %) against serotypes 19A, 3, and 19F, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

At least three doses of PCV13 continue to be effective in preventing VT-IPD among children aged < 5 years in the US. PCV13 was protective against serotypes 19A and 19F IPD; protection against serotype 3 IPD did not reach statistical significance.

Non-specific effects of the inactivated influenza vaccine. A test-negative study: The inactivated influenza vaccine and SARS-CoV-2 infections

BACKGROUND

Previous research suggested that the inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) may protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection or a severe course of COVID-19. These findings were however based on cohort studies, that are prone to confounding by indication. We examined the association between IIV and SARS-Cov-2 infection in a Dutch population using a test-negative design.

METHODS

This test-negative case-control study was conducted in adults (≥60) who tested because of COVID-19 like symptoms at community SARS-CoV-2 testing locations in the Netherlands during the period of November 8th 2021-March 11th 2022. Information on receipt of IIV in October-November 2021 was routinely collected at each visit. Logistic regression was used to calculate unadjusted, partially (sex, age, education level) and fully adjusted (COVID-19 vaccination, IIV 2020) odds ratios (ORs) for receipt of IIV in SARS-CoV-2 positive versus negative subjects. Differential effects on SARS-CoV-2 risk by time since IIV were investigated by including an interaction term for calendar time: November 2021-January 2022 vs February-March 2022.

RESULTS

In total, 1,832 participants were included in the main analysis, of whom 336 (18.3 %) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. No significant association between IIV and SARS-CoV-2 infection was found; fully adjusted OR of 1.07 (95 % CI: 0.78-1.49). The interaction term for time periods was not significant (1.04 [95 % CI: 0.51-2.15], p = 0.91). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

While earlier observational studies suggested a protective non-specific effect of IIV and SARS-CoV-2 infections, this smaller, but well controlled test-negative design study does not suggest an effect, either positive or negative. Larger test-negative design studies, or alternative designs such as the self-controlled case series design are needed to confirm these findings and provide more definite answers on the topic.

Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season by one week. After accounting for waning VE, repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for A(H3N2) (OR=1.11, 95%CI:1.02-1.21) but not for influenza B or A(H1N1). We found that clinical infection influenced individuals' decision to vaccinate in the following season while protecting against clinical infection of the same (sub)type. However, adjusting for recent clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. In contrast, we found that adjusting for subclinical infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Additional investigation is needed to determine the impact of subclinical infections on VE.

Postpandemic Sentinel Surveillance of Respiratory Diseases in the Context of the World Health Organization Mosaic Framework: Protocol for a Development and Evaluation Study Involving the English Primary Care Network 2023-2024

BACKGROUND

Prepandemic sentinel surveillance focused on improved management of winter pressures, with influenza-like illness (ILI) being the key clinical indicator. The World Health Organization (WHO) global standards for influenza surveillance include monitoring acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI. The WHO's mosaic framework recommends that the surveillance strategies of countries include the virological monitoring of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential such as influenza. The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioner Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has provided sentinel surveillance since 1967, including virology since 1993.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to describe the RSC's plans for sentinel surveillance in the 2023-2024 season and evaluate these plans against the WHO mosaic framework.

METHODS

Our approach, which includes patient and public involvement, contributes to surveillance objectives across all 3 domains of the mosaic framework. We will generate an ARI phenotype to enable reporting of this indicator in addition to ILI. These data will support UKHSA's sentinel surveillance, including vaccine effectiveness and burden of disease studies. The panel of virology tests analyzed in UKHSA's reference laboratory will remain unchanged, with additional plans for point-of-care testing, pneumococcus testing, and asymptomatic screening. Our sampling framework for serological surveillance will provide greater representativeness and more samples from younger people. We will create a biomedical resource that enables linkage between clinical data held in the RSC and virology data, including sequencing data, held by the UKHSA. We describe the governance framework for the RSC.

RESULTS

We are co-designing our communication about data sharing and sampling, contextualized by the mosaic framework, with national and general practice patient and public involvement groups. We present our ARI digital phenotype and the key data RSC network members are requested to include in computerized medical records. We will share data with the UKHSA to report vaccine effectiveness for COVID-19 and influenza, assess the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus, and perform syndromic surveillance. Virological surveillance will include COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and other common respiratory viruses. We plan to pilot point-of-care testing for group A streptococcus, urine tests for pneumococcus, and asymptomatic testing. We will integrate test requests and results with the laboratory-computerized medical record system. A biomedical resource will enable research linking clinical data to virology data. The legal basis for the RSC's pseudonymized data extract is The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002, and all nonsurveillance uses require research ethics approval.

CONCLUSIONS

The RSC extended its surveillance activities to meet more but not all of the mosaic framework's objectives. We have introduced an ARI indicator. We seek to expand our surveillance scope and could do more around transmissibility and the benefits and risks of nonvaccine therapies.

Waning effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against inpatient and emergency department encounters

In the United States, most real-world estimates of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness are based on data drawn from large health systems or sentinel populations. More data is needed to understand how the benefits of vaccination may vary across US populations with disparate risk profiles and policy contexts. We aimed to provide estimates of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against moderate and severe outcomes of COVID-19 based on state population-level data sources. Using statewide integrated administrative and clinical data and a test-negative case-control study design, we assessed mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalizations and emergency department visits among adults in South Carolina. We presented estimates of vaccine effectiveness at discrete time intervals for adults who received one, two or three doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine compared to adults who were unvaccinated. We also evaluated changes in vaccine effectiveness over time (waning) for the overall sample and in subgroups defined by age. We showed that while two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine were initially highly effective, vaccine effectiveness waned as time elapsed since the second dose. Compared to protection against hospitalizations, protection against emergency department visits was found to wane more sharply. In all cases, a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine conferred significant gains in protection relative to waning protection after two doses. Further, over more than 120 days of follow-up, the data revealed relatively limited waning of vaccine effectiveness after a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.

Effectiveness of Immunization Products Against Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: Generic Protocol for a Test-Negative Case-Control Study

Monitoring the real-life effectiveness of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) products is of major public health importance. This generic protocol for a test-negative design study aims to address currently envisioned approaches for RSV prevention (monoclonal antibodies and vaccines) to study effectiveness of these products among target groups: children, older adults, and pregnant women. The generic protocol approach was chosen to allow for flexibility in adapting the protocol to a specific setting. This protocol includes severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and acute respiratory infection (ARI), both due to RSV, as end points. These end points can be applied to studies in hospitals, primarily targeting patients with more severe disease, but also to studies in general practitioner clinics targeting ARI.

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against vaccine-serotype community acquired pneumococcal diseases among children in China: A test-negative case-control study

BACKGROUND

In 2016, China licensed 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) based on a study that demonstrated its immunogenicity is non-inferior to PCV7. However, the real-world effectiveness of PCV13 against vaccine-serotype pneumococcal diseases in China has limited evidence.

METHODS

A test-negative case-control study was conducted among children under 5 years old admitted to the Children's Hospital of Soochow University (SCH) with respiratory tract infections from January 2018 to December 2020. Cases were defined as children from whom the isolates were tested positive for Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) with serotypes included in PCV13. Two control groups were included, one represented children with isolates positive for S. pneumoniae of non-PCV13 serotypes and the other comprised children who tested negative for S. pneumoniae. The S. pneumoniae-negative controls were selected by matching them to the cases based on gender, age and admission date in a 1:1 ratio. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated using a logistic regression model as (1- adjusted odds ratio) * 100 %.

RESULTS

A total of 2371 pneumococcal isolates were included in the analysis, of which 75.0 % (1779/2371) were covered by PCV13 serotypes. Consequently, these 1779 children were classified as cases, and 592 children were designated as non-PCV13 serotype controls. Another 1779 children were correspondingly recruited as S. pneumoniae-negative controls. Overall, 40 cases (2.3 %) and 148 controls (6.2 %) had received vaccination. The overall VE in the PCV13/non-PCV13 serotypes case-control study was 50.0 % (95 % CI: 15.0, 70.7), which was lower than the VE of 74.4 % (95 % CI: 60.7, 83.3) in the matched PCV13/S. pneumoniae-negative case-control study. VE was higher for ≥ 2 or ≥ 3 doses of vaccination compared to ≥ 1 dose. VE against specific PCV13 serotypes (6B, 6A and 19F) was higher than for other serotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

PCV13 vaccination demonstrates effectiveness against vaccine-serotype pneumococcal diseases in children, particularly for serotypes 6B, 6A and 19F.

Single-dose Effectiveness of Mpox Vaccine in Quebec, Canada: Test-negative Design With and Without Adjustment for Self-reported Exposure Risk

INTRODUCTION

During the 2022 mpox outbreak, the province of Quebec, Canada, prioritized first doses for pre-exposure vaccination of people at high mpox risk, delaying second doses due to limited supply. We estimated single-dose mpox vaccine effectiveness (VE) adjusting for virus exposure risk based only on surrogate indicators available within administrative databases (eg, clinical record of sexually transmitted infections) or supplemented by self-reported risk factor information (eg, sexual contacts).

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative case-control study between 19 June and 24 September 2022. Information from administrative databases was supplemented by questionnaire collection of self-reported risk factors specific to the 3-week period before testing. Two study populations were assessed: all within the administrative databases (All-Admin) and the subset completing the questionnaire (Sub-Quest). Logistic regression models adjusted for age, calendar-time and exposure-risk, the latter based on administrative indicators only (All-Admin and Sub-Quest) or with questionnaire supplementation (Sub-Quest).

RESULTS

There were 532 All-Admin participants, of which 199 (37%) belonged to Sub-Quest. With exposure-risk adjustment based only on administrative indicators, single-dose VE estimates were similar among All-Admin and Sub-Quest populations at 35% (95% confidence interval [CI]:-2 to 59) and 30% (95% CI:-38 to 64), respectively. With adjustment supplemented by questionnaire information, the Sub-Quest VE estimate increased to 65% (95% CI:1-87), with overlapping confidence intervals.

CONCLUSIONS

Using only administrative data, we estimate one vaccine dose reduced the mpox risk by about one-third; whereas, additionally adjusting for self-reported risk factor information revealed greater vaccine benefit, with one dose instead estimated to reduce the mpox risk by about two-thirds. Inadequate exposure-risk adjustment may substantially under-estimate mpox VE.

Test negative design for vaccine effectiveness estimation in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic methodology review

BACKGROUND

During the height of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the test-negative design (TND) was extensively used in many countries to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Typically, the TND involves the recruitment of care-seeking individuals who meet a common clinical case definition. All participants are then tested for an infection of interest.

OBJECTIVES

To review and describe the variation in TND methodology, and disclosure of potential biases, as applied to the evaluation of COVID-19 VE during the early vaccination phase of the pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review by searching four biomedical databases using defined keywords to identify peer-reviewed articles published between January 1, 2020, and January 25, 2022. We included only original articles that employed a TND to estimate VE of COVID-19 vaccines in which cases and controls were evaluated based on SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test results.

RESULTS

We identified 96 studies, 35 of which met the defined criteria. Most studies were from North America (16 studies) and targeted the general population (28 studies). Outcome case definitions were based primarily on COVID-19-like symptoms; however, several papers did not consider or specify symptoms. Cases and controls had the same inclusion criteria in only half of the studies. Most studies relied upon administrative or hospital databases assembled for a different (non-evaluation) clinical purpose. Potential unmeasured confounding (20 studies), misclassification of current SARS-CoV-2 infection (16 studies) and selection bias (10 studies) were disclosed as limitations by some studies.

CONCLUSION

We observed potentially meaningful deviations from the validated design in the application of the TND during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hypothesis testing and sample size considerations for the test-negative design

The test-negative design (TND) is an observational study design to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) that enrolls individuals receiving diagnostic testing for a target disease as part of routine care. VE is estimated as one minus the adjusted odds ratio of testing positive versus negative comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Although the TND is related to case-control studies, it is distinct in that the ratio of test-positive cases to test-negative controls is not typically pre-specified. For both types of studies, sparse cells are common when vaccines are highly effective. We consider the implications of these features on power for the TND. We use simulation studies to explore three hypothesis-testing procedures and associated sample size calculations for case-control and TND studies. These tests, all based on a simple logistic regression model, are a standard Wald test, a continuity-corrected Wald test, and a score test. The Wald test performs poorly in both case-control and TND when VE is high because the number of vaccinated test-positive cases can be low or zero. Continuity corrections help to stabilize the variance but induce bias. We observe superior performance with the score test as the variance is pooled under the null hypothesis of no group differences. We recommend using a score-based approach to design and analyze both case-control and TND. We propose a modification to the TND score sample size to account for additional variability in the ratio of controls over cases. This work expands our understanding of the data mechanisms of the TND.

Effectiveness of the quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine against influenza-related hospitalisations and morbidity among children aged 2 to 6 years in Denmark: a nationwide cohort study emulating a target trial

BACKGROUND

Scant evidence exists on the real-world effectiveness of quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIV-4) in younger children. We aimed to assess the real-world effectiveness of LAIV-4 against influenza-related hospital contacts and admission and morbidity.

METHODS

Using nationwide Danish health-care registries, we designed a cohort study that emulates a target trial, comparing LAIV-4 to no vaccination in children aged 2-6 years. Eligible children vaccinated from Oct 1, 2021, to Jan 15, 2022, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic characteristics and risk groups for influenza, and followed-up until May 31, 2022. Primary study outcomes any hospital contact for influenza and influenza-related hospital admissions more than 12 h in duration, while hospital admission for respiratory tract infections, or for wheezing or asthma, and antibiotic prescriptions were evaluated as secondary outcomes. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs using Poisson regression for each outcome. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 - IRR.

FINDINGS

Among 308 520 Danish children aged 2-6 years, 95 434 vaccinated children were matched with 95 434 unvaccinated children who acted as controls. Receipt of LAIV-4 compared with no vaccination was associated with a reduced IRR of 0·36 (95% CI 0·27 to 0·46) and estimated vaccine effectiveness of 64·3% (53·6 to 72·6) against influenza-related hospital contacts (76 vs 210 events). The corresponding IRR and vaccine effectiveness against influenza-related hospital admissions were 0·63 (0·38 to 1·05) and 36·9% (-5·2 to 62·1; 24 vs 38 events), respectively. LAIV-4 was not associated with reductions in admission rates for respiratory tract infections (IRR 1·14, 95% CI 0·94 to 1·38), wheezing or asthma (1·04, 0·83 to 1·31), or antibiotic prescriptions for respiratory tract infections (0·97, 0·93 to 1·00). Vaccine effectiveness assessed across risk groups for influenza showed similar effectiveness in children with and without coexisting risk factors for severe influenza.

INTERPRETATION

LAIV-4 offered moderate protection in younger children against influenza-related hospital contacts during a season dominated by influenza A(H3N2); however vaccination was not associated with reductions in secondary outcomes. This real-world study thereby supports trial evidence of moderate vaccine effectiveness of LAIV-4 against influenza-related outcomes when implementing broad vaccination schedules in younger children.

FUNDING

Beckett-Fonden.

Evolution of Influenza A(H3N2) Viruses in 2 Consecutive Seasons of Genomic Surveillance, 2021-2023

Background

The circulation and the genomic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses during the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons were studied and associated with infection outcomes.

Methods

Remnant influenza A-positive samples following standard-of-care testing from patients across the Johns Hopkins Health System (JHHS) were used for the study. Samples were randomly selected for whole viral genome sequencing. The sequence-based pEpitope model was used to estimate the predicted vaccine efficacy (pVE) for circulating H3N2 viruses. Clinical data were collected and associated with viral genomic data.

Results

A total of 121 683 respiratory specimens were tested for influenza at JHHS between 1 September 2021 and 31 December 2022. Among them, 6071 (4.99%) tested positive for influenza A. Of these, 805 samples were randomly selected for sequencing, with hemagglutinin (HA) segments characterized for 610 samples. Among the characterized samples, 581 were H3N2 (95.2%). Phylogenetic analysis of HA segments revealed the exclusive circulation of H3N2 viruses with HA segments of the 3C.2a1b.2a.2 clade. Analysis of a total of 445 complete H3N2 genomes revealed reassortments; 200 of 227 of the 2022/2023 season genomes (88.1%) were found to have reassorted with clade 3C.2a1b.1a. The pVE was estimated to be -42.53% for the 2021/2022 season and 30.27% for the 2022/2023 season. No differences in clinical presentations or admissions were observed between the 2 seasons.

Conclusions

The increased numbers of cases and genomic diversity of influenza A(H3N2) during the 2022/2023 season were not associated with a change in disease severity compared to the previous influenza season.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness and Test-Negative Study Design Within the Department of Defense

Test-negative observational studies are routinely used to assess vaccine effectiveness. This test method consistently shows lower annual vaccine effectiveness in the highly vaccinated U.S. military compared to the general population. Incorporating other test designs and broader impact measures may better estimate influenza vaccine benefits in highly vaccinated groups.

Old and new aspects of influenza

Influenza is a classic infectious disease that, through the continuous variation of the viruses that produce it, imposes new challenges that we must solve as quickly as possible. The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially modified the behavior of influenza and other respiratory viruses, and in the coming years we will have to coexist with a new pathogen that will probably interact with existing pathogens in a way that we cannot yet glimpse. However, knowledge prior to the pandemic allows us to focus on the aspects that must be modified to make influenza an acceptable challenge for the future. In this review, emphasis is placed on the most relevant aspects of epidemiology, disease burden, diagnosis, and vaccine prevention, and how scientific and clinical trends in these aspects flow from the previously known to future challenges.

Some principles for using epidemiologic study results to parameterize transmission models

Background

Infectious disease models, including individual based models (IBMs), can be used to inform public health response. For these models to be effective, accurate estimates of key parameters describing the natural history of infection and disease are needed. However, obtaining these parameter estimates from epidemiological studies is not always straightforward. We aim to 1) outline challenges to parameter estimation that arise due to common biases found in epidemiologic studies and 2) describe the conditions under which careful consideration in the design and analysis of the study could allow us to obtain a causal estimate of the parameter of interest. In this discussion we do not focus on issues of generalizability and transportability.

Methods

Using examples from the COVID-19 pandemic, we first identify different ways of parameterizing IBMs and describe ideal study designs to estimate these parameters. Given real-world limitations, we describe challenges in parameter estimation due to confounding and conditioning on a post-exposure observation. We then describe ideal study designs that can lead to unbiased parameter estimates. We finally discuss additional challenges in estimating progression probabilities and the consequences of these challenges.

Results

Causal estimation can only occur if we are able to accurately measure and control for all confounding variables that create non-causal associations between the exposure and outcome of interest, which is sometimes challenging given the nature of the variables we need to measure. In the absence of perfect control, non-causal parameter estimates should still be used, as sometimes they are the best available information we have.

Conclusions

Identifying which estimates from epidemiologic studies correspond to the quantities needed to parameterize disease models, and determining whether these parameters have causal interpretations, can inform future study designs and improve inferences from infectious disease models. Understanding the way in which biases can arise in parameter estimation can inform sensitivity analyses or help with interpretation of results if the magnitude and direction of the bias is understood.

The need for a clinical case definition in test-negative design studies estimating vaccine effectiveness

Test negative studies have been used extensively for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Such studies are able to estimate VE against medically-attended illness under certain assumptions. Selection bias may be present if the probability of participation is associated with vaccination or COVID-19, but this can be mitigated through use of a clinical case definition to screen patients for eligibility, which increases the likelihood that cases and non-cases come from the same source population. We examined the extent to which this type of bias could harm COVID-19 VE through systematic review and simulation. A systematic review of test-negative studies was re-analysed to identify studies ignoring the need for clinical criteria. Studies using a clinical case definition had a lower pooled VE estimate compared with studies that did not. Simulations varied the probability of selection by case and vaccination status. Positive bias away from the null (i.e., inflated VE consistent with the systematic review) was observed when there was a higher proportion of healthy, vaccinated non-cases, which may occur if a dataset contains many results from asymptomatic screening in settings where vaccination coverage is high. We provide an html tool for researchers to explore site-specific sources of selection bias in their own studies. We recommend all groups consider the potential for selection bias in their vaccine effectiveness studies, particularly when using administrative data.

Protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation conferred by primary-series vaccination with AZD1222 in non-boosted individuals: first vaccine effectiveness results of the European COVIDRIVE study and meta-regression analysis

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies with long-term follow-up are needed to understand durability of protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes conferred by primary-series vaccination in individuals not receiving boosters. COVIDRIVE is a European public-private partnership evaluating brand-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE). We report a prespecified interim analysis of primary-series AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) VE.

Methods

Seven Study Contributors in Europe collected data on individuals aged ≥18 years who were hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (June 1st, 2021-September 5th, 2022) and eligible for COVID-19 vaccination prior to hospitalisation. In this test-negative case-control study, individuals were defined as test-positive cases or test-negative controls (SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR) and were either fully vaccinated (two AZD1222 doses, 4-12 weeks apart, completed ≥14 days prior to symptom onset; no booster doses) or unvaccinated (no COVID-19 vaccine prior to hospitalisation). The primary objective was to estimate AZD1222 VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation. A literature review and meta-regression were conducted to contextualise findings on durability of protection.

Findings

761 individuals were included during the 15-month analysis period. Overall AZD1222 VE estimate was 72.8% (95% CI, 53.4-84.1). VE was 93.8% (48.6-99.3) in participants who received second AZD1222 doses ≤8 weeks prior to hospitalisation, with spline-based VE estimates demonstrating protection (VE ≥ 50%) 30 weeks post-second dose. Meta-regression analysis (data from seven publications) showed consistent results, with ≥80% protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation through ∼43 weeks post-second dose, with some degree of waning.

Interpretation

Primary-series AZD1222 vaccination confers protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation with enduring levels of VE through ≥6 months.

Funding

AstraZeneca.

Effectiveness of mRNA and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines: A test-negative study in an infection-naïve Hong Kong population

OBJECTIVE

Assess real-world effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19.

METHODS

A test-negative study was conducted in January-May 2022 during an Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong. COVID-19 was identified by RT-PCR. 1-1 case-control matching was based on propensity score with vaccine effectiveness adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

Altogether, 1781 cases and 1737 controls aged 3-105 years were analysed. The mean lag time from the last dose of vaccination to testing for SARS-CoV-2 was 133.9 (SD: 84.4) days. Two doses of either vaccine within 180 days offered a low effectiveness against COVID-19 of all severity combined (VEadj [95% CI] for BNT162b2: 27.0% [4.2-44.5], CoronaVac: 22.9% [1.3-39.7]), and further decreased after 180 days. Two doses of CoronaVac were poorly protective 39.5% [4.9-62.5] against severe diseases for age ≥ 60 years, but the effectiveness increased substantially after the third dose (79.1% [25.7-96.7]). Two doses of BNT162b2 protected age ≥ 60 years against severe diseases (79.3% [47.2, 93.9]); however, the uptake was not high enough to assess three doses.

CONCLUSIONS

The current real-world analysis indicates a high vaccine effectiveness of three doses of inactivated virus (CoronaVac) vaccines against Omicron variant, whereas the effectiveness of two doses is suboptimal.

Double Negative Control Inference in Test-Negative Design Studies of Vaccine Effectiveness

The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach to evaluate vaccine effectiveness against the risk of acquiring infectious diseases in real-world settings, such as Influenza, Rotavirus, Dengue fever, and more recently COVID-19. In a TND study, individuals who experience symptoms and seek care are recruited and tested for the infectious disease which defines cases and controls. Despite TND's potential to reduce unobserved differences, in healthcare seeking behavior (HSB) between vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects, it remains subject to various potential biases. First, residual confounding may remain due to unobserved HSB occupation as healthcare worker, or previous infection history. Second, because selection into the TND sample is a common consequence of infection and HSB, collider stratification bias may exist when conditioning the analysis on tested samples, which further induces confounding by latent HSB. In this paper, we present a novel approach to identify and estimate vaccine effectiveness in the target population by carefully leveraging a pair of negative control exposure and outcome variables to account for potential hidden bias in TND studies. We illustrate our proposed method with extensive simulations and an application to study COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness using data from the University of Michigan Health System.

Comparison of mRNA vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-associated hospitalization by vaccination source: Immunization information systems, electronic medical records, and self-report-IVY Network, February 1-August 31, 2022

BACKGROUND

Accurate determination of COVID-19 vaccination status is necessary to produce reliable COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. Data comparing differences in COVID-19 VE by vaccination sources (i.e., immunization information systems [IIS], electronic medical records [EMR], and self-report) are limited. We compared the number of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses identified by each of these sources to assess agreement as well as differences in VE estimates using vaccination data from each individual source and vaccination data adjudicated from all sources combined.

METHODS

Adults aged ≥18 years who were hospitalized with COVID-like illness at 21 hospitals in 18 U.S. states participating in the IVY Network during February 1-August 31, 2022, were enrolled. Numbers of COVID-19 vaccine doses identified by IIS, EMR, and self-report were compared in kappa agreement analyses. Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was estimated using multivariable logistic regression models to compare the odds of COVID-19 vaccination between SARS-CoV-2-positive case-patients and SARS-CoV-2-negative control-patients. VE was estimated using each source of vaccination data separately and all sources combined.

RESULTS

A total of 4499 patients were included. Patients with ≥1 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose were identified most frequently by self-report (n = 3570, 79 %), followed by IIS (n = 3272, 73 %) and EMR (n = 3057, 68 %). Agreement was highest between IIS and self-report for 4 doses with a kappa of 0.77 (95 % CI = 0.73-0.81). VE point estimates of 3 doses against COVID-19 hospitalization were substantially lower when using vaccination data from EMR only (VE = 31 %, 95 % CI = 16 %-43 %) than when using all sources combined (VE = 53 %, 95 % CI = 41 %-62%).

CONCLUSION

Vaccination data from EMR only may substantially underestimate COVID-19 VE.

Correction of vaccine effectiveness derived from test-negative case-control studies

BACKGROUND

Determining the vaccine effectiveness (VE) is an important part of studying every new vaccine. Test-negative case-control (TNCC) studies have recently been used to determine the VE. However, the estimated VE derived from a TNCC design depends on the test sensitivity and specificity. Herein, a method for correction of the value of VE derived from a TNCC study is presented.

METHODS

An analytical method is presented to compute the corrected VE based on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test utilized. To show the application of the method proposed, a hypothetical TNCC study is presented. In this in silico study, 100 000 individuals referring to a healthcare system for COVID-19-like illness were tested with diagnostic tests with sensitivities of 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0, and specificities ranging from 0.85 to 1.00. A vaccination coverage of 60%, an attack rate of 0.05 for COVID-19 in unvaccinated group, and a true VE of 0.70, were assumed. In this simulation, a COVID-19-like illness with an attack rate of 0.30 could also affect all the studied population regardless of their vaccination status.

RESULTS

The observed VE ranged from 0.11 (computed for a test sensitivity of 0.60 and specificity of 0.85) to 0.71 (computed for a test sensitivity and specificity of 1.0). The mean computed corrected VE derived from the proposed method was 0.71 (the standard deviation of 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed VE derived from TNCC studies can be corrected easily. An acceptable estimate for VE can be computed regardless of the diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity used in the study.

Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against Omicron infection and severe events: a systematic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design studies

Background

A rapidly growing body was observed of literature evaluating the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against Omicron in test-negative design studies.

Methods

We systematically searched papers that evaluated VE of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, Embase, Scopus, bioRxiv, and medRxiv published from November 26th, 2021, to June 27th, 2022 (full doses and the first booster), and to January 8th, 2023 (the second booster). The pooled VE against Omicron-associated infection and severe events were estimated.

Results

From 2,552 citations identified, 42 articles were included. The first booster provided stronger protection against Omicron than full doses alone, shown by VE estimates of 53.1% (95% CI: 48.0-57.8) vs. 28.6% (95% CI: 18.5-37.4) against infection and 82.5% (95% CI: 77.8-86.2) vs. 57.3% (95% CI: 48.5-64.7) against severe events. The second booster offered strong protection among adults within 60 days of vaccination against infection (VE=53.1%, 95% CI: 48.0-57.8) and severe events (VE=87.3% (95% CI: 75.5-93.4), comparable to the first booster with corresponding VE estimates of 59.9% against infection and 84.8% against severe events. The VE estimates of booster doses against severe events among adults sustained beyond 60 days, 77.6% (95% CI: 69.4-83.6) for first and 85.9% (95% CI: 80.3-89.9) for the second booster. The VE estimates against infection were less sustainable regardless of dose type. Pure mRNA vaccines provided comparable protection to partial mRNA vaccines, but both provided higher protection than non-mRNA vaccines.

Conclusions

One or two SARS-CoV-2 booster doses provide considerable protection against Omicron infection and substantial and sustainable protection against Omicron-induced severe clinical outcomes.

Revisiting assumptions in test-negative studies for estimating vaccine effectiveness: the need for a clinical case definition

Test negative studies have been used extensively for the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Such studies are able to estimate VE against medically-attended illness under certain assumptions. Selection bias may be present if the probability of participation is associated with vaccination or COVID-19, but this can be mitigated through use of a clinical case definition to screen patients for eligibility, which increases the likelihood that cases and non-cases come from the same source population. We examined the extent to which this type of bias could harm COVID-19 VE through systematic review and simulation. A systematic review of test-negative studies was re-analysed to identify studies ignoring the need for clinical criteria. Studies using a clinical case definition had a lower pooled VE estimate compared with studies that did not. Simulations varied the probability of selection by case and vaccination status. Positive bias away from the null (i.e., inflated VE consistent with the systematic review) was observed when there was a higher proportion of healthy, vaccinated non-cases, which may occur if a dataset contains many results from asymptomatic screening in settings where vaccination coverage is high. We provide an html tool for researchers to explore site-specific sources of selection bias in their own studies. We recommend all group consider the potential for selection bias in their vaccine effectiveness studies, particularly when using administrative data.

The Economic Value of Rotavirus Vaccination When Optimally Implemented in a High-Income Country

Rotavirus vaccination was introduced in high-income countries starting in 2006, with no recommendation for optimal implementation. Economic evaluations were presented before launch projecting potential impacts. Few economic reassessments have been reported following reimbursement. This study compares the short- to long-term economic value of rotavirus vaccination between pre-launch predictions and real-world evidence collected over 15 years, proposing recommendations for optimal vaccine launch. A cost-impact analysis compared rotavirus hospitalisation data after the introduction of vaccination between pre-launch modelled projections and observed data collected in the RotaBIS study in Belgium. A best model fit of the observed data was used to simulate launch scenarios to identify the optimal strategy. Data from other countries in Europe were used to confirm the potential optimal launch assessment. The Belgian analysis in the short term (first 8 years) indicated a more favourable impact for the observed data than predicted pre-launch model results. The long-term assessment (15 years) showed bigger economic disparities in favour of the model-predicted scenario. A simulated optimal vaccine launch, initiating the vaccination at least 6 months prior the next seasonal disease peak with an immediate very high vaccine coverage, indicated important additional potential gains, which would make vaccination very cost impactful. Finland and the UK are on such a route leading to long-term vaccination success, whereas Spain and Belgium have difficulties in achieving optimum vaccine benefits. An optimal launch of rotavirus vaccination may generate substantial economic gains over time. For high-income countries that are considering implementing rotavirus vaccination, achieving an optimal launch is a critical factor for long-term economic success.

Association between regular physical activity and the protective effect of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in a South African case-control study

BACKGROUND

Both vaccination and physical activity have been shown to independently decrease the likelihood of severe COVID-19 infection.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between regular physical activity and vaccination against COVID-19 among healthcare workers.

METHODS

A test negative case-control study design was used to estimate the risk of having an associated COVID-19-related hospital admission, among individuals who were unvaccinated compared with those who were fully vaccinated with Ad26.COV2.S (>28 days after a single dose). 196 444 participant tests were stratified into three measured physical activity subgroups with low, moderate and high activity, to test the hypothesis that physical activity is an effect modifier on the relationship between vaccination and hospitalisation.

RESULTS

Vaccine effectiveness against a COVID-19-related admission among vaccinated individuals within the low activity group was 60.0% (95% CI 39.0 to 73.8), 72.1% (95% CI 55.2 to 82.6) for the moderate activity group, and 85.8% (95% CI 74.1 to 92.2) for the high activity group. Compared with individuals with low activity levels, vaccinated individuals with moderate and high activity levels had a 1.4 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.51) and 2.8 (95% CI 2.35 to 3.35) times lower risk of COVID-19 admission, respectively (p value <0.001 for both groups).

CONCLUSIONS

Regular physical activity was associated with improved vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation, with higher levels of physical activity associated with greater vaccine effectiveness. Physical activity enhances vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be encouraged by greater public health messaging.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in people living with HIV in British Columbia and comparisons with a matched HIV-negative cohort: a test-negative design

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection among people living with HIV (PLWH) and compared the estimates with a matched HIV-negative cohort.

METHODS

We used the British Columbia COVID-19 Cohort, a population-based data platform, which integrates COVID-19 data on SARS-CoV-2 tests, laboratory-confirmed cases, and immunizations with provincial health services data. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated with a test-negative design using the multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The adjusted VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was 71.1% (39.7, 86.1%) 7-59 days after two doses, rising to 89.3% (72.2, 95.9%) between 60 and 89 days. VE was preserved 4-6 months after the receipt of two doses, after which noticeable waning was observed (51.3% [4.8, 75.0%]). In the matched HIV-negative cohort (n = 375,043), VE peaked at 91.4% (90.9, 91.8%) 7-59 days after two doses and was sustained for up to 4 months, after which evidence of waning was observed, dropping to 84.2% (83.4, 85.0%) between 4 and 6 months.

CONCLUSION

The receipt of two COVID-19 vaccine doses was effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection among PLWH pre-Omicron. VE estimates appeared to peak later in PLWH than in the matched HIV-negative cohort and the degree of waning was relatively quicker in PLWH; however, peak estimates were comparable in both populations.

Vaccine Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Adolescents from 15 to 90 Days after Second Dose: A Population-Based Test-Negative Case-Control Study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalization and severe illness in adolescents due to infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants (gamma, delta, and omicron).

STUDY DESIGN

A test-negative, case-control analysis was conducted in Brazil from July 2021 to March 2022. We enrolled 8458 eligible individuals (12-19 years of age) hospitalized with an acute respiratory syndrome, including 3075 cases with laboratory-proven COVID-19 and 4753 controls with negative tests for COVID-19. The primary exposure of interest was vaccination status. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection during gamma/delta vs omicron-predominant periods. The aOR for the association of prior vaccination and outcomes was used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

In the pre-omicron period, VE against COVID-19 hospitalization was 88% (95% CI, 83%-92%) and has dropped to 59% (95% CI, 49%-66%) during the omicron period. For hospitalized cases of COVID-19, considering the entire period of the analysis, 2-dose schedule was moderately effective against intensive care unit admission (46%, [95% CI, 27-60]), need of mechanical ventilation (49%, [95% CI, 32-70]), severe COVID-19 (42%, [95% CI, 17-60]), and death (46%, [95% CI, 8-67]). There was a substantial reduction of about 40% in the VE against all end points, except for death, during the omicron-predominant period. Among cases, 240 (6.6%) adolescents died; of fatal cases, 224 (93.3%) were not fully vaccinated.

CONCLUSION

Among adolescents, the VE against all end points was substantially reduced during the omicron-predominant period. Our findings suggest that the 2-dose regimen may be insufficient for SARS-CoV-2 variants and support the need for updated vaccines to provide better protection against severe COVID-19.

On the lookout for influenza viruses in Italy during the 2021-2022 season: Along came A(H3N2) viruses with a new phylogenetic makeup of their hemagglutinin

AIMS

To assess influenza viruses (IVs) circulation and to evaluate A(H3N2) molecular evolution during the 2021-2022 season in Italy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

12,393 respiratory specimens (nasopharyngeal swabs or broncho-alveolar lavages) collected from in/outpatients with influenza illness in the period spanning from January 1, 2022 (week 2022-01) to May 31, 2022 (week 2022-22) were analysed to identify IV genome and were molecularly characterized by 12 laboratories throughout Italy. A(H3N2) evolution was studied by conducting an in-depth phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences. The predicted vaccine efficacy (pVE) of vaccine strain against circulating A(H3N2) viruses was estimated using the sequence-based Pepitope model.

RESULTS

The overall IV-positive rate was 7.2% (894/12,393), all were type A IVs. Almost all influenza A viruses (846/894; 94.6%) were H3N2 that circulated in Italy with a clear epidemic trend, with 10% positivity rate threshold crossed for six consecutive weeks from week 2022-11 to week 2022-16. According to the phylogenetic analysis of a subset of A(H3N2) strains (n=161), the study HA sequences were distributed into five different genetic clusters, all of them belonging to the clade 3C.2a, sub-clade 3C.2a1 and the genetic subgroup 3C.2a1b.2a.2. The selective pressure analysis of A(H3N2) sequences showed evidence of diversifying selection particularly in the amino acid position 156. The comparison between the predicted amino acid sequence of the 2021-2022 vaccine strain (A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020) and the study strains revealed 65 mutations in 59 HA amino acid positions, including the substitution H156S and Y159N in antigenic site B, within major antigenic sites adjacent to the receptor-binding site, suggesting the presence of drifted strains. According to the sequence-based Pepitope model, antigenic site B was the dominant antigenic site and the p(VE) against circulating A(H3N2) viruses was estimated to be -28.9%.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

After a long period of very low IV activity since public health control measures have been introduced to face COVID-19 pandemic, along came A(H3N2) with a new phylogenetic makeup. Although the delayed 2021-2022 influenza season in Italy was characterized by a significant reduction of the width of the epidemic curve and in the intensity of the influenza activity compared to historical data, a marked genetic diversity of the HA of circulating A(H3N2) strains was observed. The identification of the H156S and Y159N substitutions within the main antigenic sites of most HA sequences also suggested the circulation of drifted variants with respect to the 2021-2022 vaccine strain. Molecular surveillance plays a critical role in the influenza surveillance architecture and it has to be strengthened also at local level to timely assess vaccine effectiveness and detect novel strains with potential impact on public health.

Typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in Malawi: evaluation of a test-negative design using randomised, controlled clinical trial data

BACKGROUND

Typhoid conjugate vaccines are being introduced in low-income and middle-income countries to prevent typhoid illness in children. Vaccine effectiveness studies assess vaccine performance after introduction. The test-negative design is a commonly used method to estimate vaccine effectiveness that has not been applied to typhoid vaccines because of concerns over blood culture insensitivity. The overall aim of the study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using a test-negative design to assess typhoid Vi polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) effectiveness using a gold standard randomised controlled trial database.

METHODS

Using blood culture data from a randomised controlled trial of Vi-TT in Malawi, we simulated a test-negative design to derive vaccine effectiveness estimates using three different approaches and compared these to randomised trial efficacy results. In the randomised trial, 27 882 children aged 9 months to 12 years were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a single dose of Vi-TT or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate vaccine between Feb 21 and Sept 27, 2018, and were followed up for blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever until Sept 30, 2021.

FINDINGS

For all three test-negative design approaches, vaccine effectiveness estimates (test-negative design A, 80·3% [95% CI 66·2 to 88·5] vs test-negative design B, 80·5% [66·5 to 88·6] vs test-negative design C, 80·4% [66·9 to 88·4]) were almost identical to the randomised trial results (80·4% [95% CI 66·4 to 88·5]). Receipt of Vi-TT did not affect the risk of non-typhoid fever (vaccine efficacy against non-typhoid fever -0·4% [95% CI -4·9 to 3·9] vs -1% [-5·6 to 3·3] vs -2·5% [-6·4 to 1·3] for test-negative design A, test-negative design B, and test-negative design C, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

This study validates the test-negative design core assumption for typhoid vaccine effectiveness estimation and shows the accuracy and precision of the estimates compared with the randomised controlled trial. These results show that the test-negative design is suitable for assessing typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in post-introduction studies using blood culture surveillance.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness of Messenger RNA Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Hemodialysis Patients: A Case-Control Study

Patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) are at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and its complications compared with the general population. Several studies evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in the dialysis population but showed mixed results. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in hemodialysis (HD) patients in the State of Qatar. We included all adult ESKD patients on chronic HD who had at least one SARS-CoV-2 PCR test done after the introduction of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines on 24 December 2020. Vaccinated patients who were only tested before receiving any dose of their COVID-19 vaccine or within 14 days after receiving the first vaccine dose were excluded from the study. We used a test-negative case−control design to determine the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination. Sixty-eight patients had positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests (cases), while 714 patients had negative tests (controls). Ninety-one percent of patients received the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Compared with the controls, the cases were more likely to be older (62 ± 14 vs. 57 ± 15, p = 0.02), on dialysis for more than one year (84% vs. 72%, p = 0.03), unvaccinated (46% vs. 5%, p < 0.0001), and symptomatic (54% vs. 21%, p < 0.0001). The effectiveness of receiving two doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was 94.7% (95% CI: 89.9−97.2) in our HD population. The findings of this study support the importance of using the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine in chronic HD patients to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection in such a high-risk population.

Investigating confounding in network-based test-negative design influenza vaccine effectiveness studies-Experience from the DRIVE project

BACKGROUND

Establishing a large study network to conduct influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) studies while collecting appropriate variables to account for potential bias is important; the most relevant variables should be prioritized. We explored the impact of potential confounders on IVE in the DRIVE multi-country network of sites conducting test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We constructed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to map the relationship between influenza vaccination, medically attended influenza infection, confounders, and other variables. Additionally, we used the Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccines Effectiveness (DRIVE) data from the 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 seasons to explore the effect of covariate adjustment on IVE estimates. The reference model was adjusted for age, sex, calendar time, and season. The covariates studied were presence of at least one, two, or three chronic diseases; presence of six specific chronic diseases; and prior healthcare use. Analyses were conducted by site and subsequently pooled.

RESULTS

The following variables were included in the DAG: age, sex, time within influenza season and year, health status and comorbidities, study site, health-care-seeking behavior, contact patterns and social precautionary behavior, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing immunity. Across all age groups and settings, only adjustment for lung disease in older adults in the primary care setting resulted in a relative change of the IVE point estimate >10%.

CONCLUSION

Our study supports a parsimonious approach to confounder adjustment in TND studies, limited to adjusting for age, sex, and calendar time. Practical implications are that necessitating fewer variables lowers the threshold for enrollment of sites in IVE studies and simplifies the pooling of data from different IVE studies or study networks.

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on radiological primary end-point pneumonia among cases of severe community acquired pneumonia in children: A prospective multi-site hospital-based test-negative study in Northern India

INTRODUCTION

Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of under-five mortality in India and Streptococcus pneumoniae is the main bacterial pathogen for it. Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 (PCV13) has been introduced in a phased manner, in the national immunization program of India since 2017/2018. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of PCV13 on chest radiograph (CXR)-confirmed pneumonia, in children hospitalized with WHO-defined severe CAP.

METHODS

This prospective, multi-site test-negative study was conducted in a hospital-network situated in three districts of Northern India where PCV13 had been introduced. Children aged 2-23 months, hospitalized with severe CAP and with interpretable CXR were included after parental consent. Clinical data was extracted from hospital records. CXRs were interpreted by a panel of three independent blinded trained radiologists. Exposure to PCV13 was defined as ≥2 doses of PCV13 in children aged ≤ 12 months and ≥ 1 dose(s) in children > 12 months of age. Our outcome measures were CXR finding of primary endpoint pneumonia with or without other infiltrates (PEP±OI); vaccine effectiveness (VE) and hospital mortality.

RESULTS

From 1st June 2017-30th April 2021, among 2711 children included, 678 (25.0%) were exposed to PCV1. CXR positive for PEP±OI on CXR was found in 579 (21.4%), of which 103 (17.8%) were exposed to PCV. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for PEP±OI among the exposed group was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54-0.89, p = 0.004). Adjusted VE was 31.0% (95% CI: 11.0-44.0) for PEP±OI. AOR for hospital mortality with PEP±OI was 2.65 (95% CI: 1.27-5.53, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In severe CAP, children exposed to PCV13 had significantly reduced odds of having PEP±OI. Since PEP±OI had increased odds of hospital mortality due to CAP, countrywide coverage with PCV13 is an essential priority.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines over 13 Months Covering the Period of the Emergence of the Omicron Variant in the Swedish Population

BACKGROUND

We estimated real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death up to 13 months after vaccination. VE before and after the emergence of Omicron was investigated.

METHODS

We used registered data from the entire Swedish population above age 12 (n = 9,153,456). Cox regression with time-varying exposure was used to estimate weekly/monthly VE against COVID-19 outcomes from 27 December 2020 to 31 January 2022. The analyses were stratified by age, sex, and vaccine type (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and AZD1222).

RESULTS

Two vaccine doses offered good long-lasting protection against infection before Omicron (VE were above 85% for all time intervals) but limited protection against Omicron infection (dropped to 43% by week four and no protection by week 14). For severe COVID-19 outcomes, higher VE was observed during the entire follow-up period. Among individuals above age 65, the mRNA vaccines showed better VE against infection than AZD1222 but similar high VE against hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide strong evidence for long-term maintained protection against severe COVID-19 by the basic two-dose schedule, supporting more efforts to encourage unvaccinated persons to get the basic two doses, and encourage vaccinated persons to get a booster to ensure better population-level protection.