Estimating rates of carriage acquisition and clearance and competitive ability for pneumococcal serotypes in Kenya with a Markov transition model

Pneumococcus and the stress-gradient hypothesis: A trade-off links R0 and susceptibility to co-colonization across countries

Modern molecular technologies have revolutionized our understanding of bacterial epidemiology, but reported data across studies and different geographic endemic settings remain under-integrated in common theoretical frameworks. Pneumococcus serotype co-colonization, caused by the polymorphic bacteria Streptococcus pneumoniae, has been increasingly investigated and reported in recent years. While the global genomic diversity and serotype distribution of S. pneumoniae have been well-characterized, there is limited information on how co-colonization patterns vary globally, critical for understanding the evolution and transmission dynamics of the bacteria. Gathering a rich dataset of cross-sectional pneumococcal colonization studies in the literature, we quantified patterns of transmission intensity and co-colonization prevalence variation in children populations across 17 geographic locations. Linking these data to an SIS model with cocolonization under the assumption of quasi-neutrality among multiple interacting strains, our analysis reveals strong patterns of negative co-variation between transmission intensity (R0) and susceptibility to co-colonization (k). In line with expectations from the stress-gradient-hypothesis in ecology (SGH), pneumococcus serotypes appear to compete more in co-colonization in high-transmission settings and compete less in low-transmission settings, a trade-off which ultimately leads to a conserved ratio of single to co-colonization μ=1/(R0-1)k. From the mathematical model's behavior, such conservation suggests preservation of 'stability-diversity-complexity' regimes in coexistence of similar co-colonizing strains. We find no major differences in serotype compositions across studies, pointing to adaptation of the same set of serotypes across variable environments as an explanation for their differential interaction in different transmission settings. Our work highlights that the understanding of transmission patterns of Streptococcus pneumoniae from global scale epidemiological data can benefit from simple analytical approaches that account for quasi-neutrality among strains, co-colonization, as well as variable environmental adaptation.

Unmasking Pneumococcal Carriage in a High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Prevalence Population in two Community Cohorts in South Africa, 2016-2018: The PHIRST Study

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal pneumococcus colonization data in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction are limited.

METHODS

In 327 randomly selected households, 1684 individuals were enrolled and followed-up for 6 to 10 months during 2016 through 2018 from 2 communities. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice weekly and tested for pneumococcus using quantitative lytA real-time polymerase chain reaction. A Markov model was fitted to the data to define the start and end of an episode of colonization. We assessed factors associated with colonization using logistic regression.

RESULTS

During the study period, 98% (1655/1684) of participants were colonized with pneumococcus at least once. Younger age (<5 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 14.1; 95% confidence [CI], 1.8-111.3, and 5-24 years: aOR, 4.8, 95% CI, 1.9-11.9, compared with 25-44 years) and HIV infection (aOR, 10.1; 95% CI, 1.3-77.1) were associated with increased odds of colonization. Children aged <5 years had fewer colonization episodes (median, 9) than individuals ≥5 years (median, 18; P < .001) but had a longer episode duration (<5 years: 35.5 days; interquartile range, 17-88) vs. ≥5 years: 5.5 days (4-12). High pneumococcal loads were associated with age (<1 year: aOR 25.4; 95% CI, 7.4-87.6; 1-4 years: aOR 13.5, 95% CI 8.3-22.9; 5-14 years: aOR 3.1, 95% CI, 2.1-4.4 vs. 45-65 year old patients) and HIV infection (aOR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed high levels of pneumococcus colonization across all age groups. Children and people with HIV were more likely to be colonized and had higher pneumococcal loads. Carriage duration decreased with age highlighting that children remain important in pneumococcal transmission.

Strain-level resolution and pneumococcal carriage dynamics by single-molecule real-time (SMRT) sequencing of the plyNCR marker: a longitudinal study in Swiss infants

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal carriage has often been studied from a serotype perspective; however, little is known about the strain-specific carriage and inter-strain interactions. Here, we examined the strain-level carriage and co-colonization dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae in a Swiss birth cohort by PacBio single-molecule real-time (SMRT) sequencing of the plyNCR marker.

METHODS

A total of 872 nasal swab (NS) samples were included from 47 healthy infants during the first year of life. Pneumococcal carriage was determined based on the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) targeting the lytA gene. The plyNCR marker was amplified from 214 samples having lytA-based carriage for pneumococcal strain resolution. Amplicons were sequenced using SMRT technology, and sequences were analyzed with the DADA2 pipeline. In addition, pneumococcal serotypes were determined using conventional, multiplex PCR (cPCR).

RESULTS

PCR-based plyNCR amplification demonstrated a 94.2% sensitivity and 100% specificity for Streptococcus pneumoniae if compared to lytA qPCR. The overall carriage prevalence was 63.8%, and pneumococcal co-colonization (≥ 2 plyNCR amplicon sequence variants (ASVs)) was detected in 38/213 (17.8%) sequenced samples with the relative proportion of the least abundant strain(s) ranging from 1.1 to 48.8% (median, 17.2%; IQR, 5.8-33.4%). The median age to first acquisition was 147 days, and having ≥ 2 siblings increased the risk of acquisition.

CONCLUSION

The plyNCR amplicon sequencing is species-specific and enables pneumococcal strain resolution. We therefore recommend its application for longitudinal strain-level carriage studies of Streptococcus pneumoniae. Video Abstract.

Approximate likelihood-based estimation method of multiple-type pathogen interactions: An application to longitudinal pneumococcal carriage data

While the serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae are known to compete during colonization in human hosts, our knowledge of how competition occurs is still incomplete. New insights of pneumococcal between‐type competition could be generated from carriage data obtained by molecular‐based detection methods, which record more complete sets of serotypes involved in co‐carriage than when detection is done by culture. Here, we develop a Bayesian estimation method for inferring between‐type interactions from longitudinal data recording the presence/absence of the types at discrete observation times. It allows inference from data containing co‐carriage of two or more serotypes, which is often the case when pneumococcal presence is determined by molecular‐based methods. The computational burden posed by the increased number of types detected in co‐carriage is addressed by approximating the likelihood under a multi‐state model with the likelihood of only those trajectories with minimum number of acquisition and clearance events between observation times. The proposed method's performance was validated on simulated data. The estimates of the interaction parameters of acquisition and clearance were unbiased in settings with short sampling intervals between observation times. With less frequent sampling, the estimates of the interaction parameters became more biased, but their ratio, which summarizes the total interaction, remained unbiased. Confounding due to unobserved heterogeneity in exposure could be corrected by including individual‐level random effects. In an application to empirical data about pneumococcal carriage in infants, we found new evidence for between‐serotype competition in clearance, although the effect size was small.

Estimating the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission in South Africa, 2016–2018: A hidden Markov modelling study

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant’s age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9–80.5%) than older children (5–17 years-old) (31.7–50.0%) or adults (11.5–23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7–15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91–1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2–12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6–6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507–714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1–435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.

We assessed the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission by applying a hidden Markov model to pneumococcal cohort data comprising 115,595 nasopharyngeal samples from 1,684 individuals in rural and urban settings in South Africa. We estimated 14.4% of sample misclassifications (false negatives), representing 85.6% sensitivity of a test that was used to detect pneumococcus. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence and acquisition rates, and average duration were usually higher in younger or older children than adults. The use of ART and antibiotics reduced the average carriage duration across all age and HIV groups, and carriage acquisition risks increased in larger household sizes. Despite the longer average carriage duration and higher median carriage density in HIV-infected than HIV-uninfected adults, we found similar carriage acquisition and onward transmission risks in the dual groups. These findings suggest that vaccinating HIV-infected adults on ART with PCV would reduce their risk for pneumococcal disease but may add little to the indirect protection against carriage of the rest of the population.

Association of pneumococcal serotype with susceptibility to antimicrobial drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal serotypes differ in antimicrobial susceptibility. However, patterns and causes of this variation are not comprehensively understood.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review of epidemiologic studies of pneumococci isolated from carriage or invasive disease among children globally from 2000-2019. We evaluated associations of each serotype with nonsusceptibility to penicillin, macrolides, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. We evaluated differences in the prevalence of nonsusceptibility to major antibiotic classes across serotypes using random effects meta-regression models, and assessed changes in prevalence of nonsusceptibility after implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). We also evaluated associations between biological characteristics of serotypes and their likelihood of nonsusceptibility to each drug.

RESULTS

We included data from 129 studies representing 32,187 isolates across 52 countries. Within serotypes, the proportion of nonsusceptible isolates varied geographically and over time, in settings using and those not using PCVs. Factors predicting enhanced fitness of serotypes in colonization as well as enhanced pathogenicity were each associated with higher likelihood of nonsusceptibility to penicillin, macrolides, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. Increases in prevalence of nonsusceptibility following PCV implementation were evident among non-PCV serotypes including 6A, 6C, 15A, 15B/C, 19A, and 35B; however, this pattern was not universally evident among non-PCV serotypes. Post-vaccination increases in nonsusceptibility for serotypes 6A and 19A were attenuated in settings that implemented PCV13.

CONCLUSIONS

In pneumococci, nonsusceptibility to penicillin, macrolides, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole is associated with more frequent opportunities for antibiotic exposure during both prolonged carriage episodes and when serotypes cause disease. These findings suggest multiple pathways leading to resistance selection in pneumococci.

Modeling the effect of vaccination on selection for antibiotic resistance in Streptococcus pneumonia e

Vaccines against bacterial pathogens can protect recipients from becoming infected with potentially antibiotic-resistant pathogens. However, by altering the selective balance between antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains, vaccines may also suppress-or spread-antibiotic resistance among unvaccinated individuals. Predicting the outcome of vaccination requires knowing what drives selection for drug-resistant bacterial pathogens and what maintains the circulation of both antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria. To address this question, we used mathematical modeling and data from 2007 on penicillin consumption and penicillin nonsusceptibility in Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) invasive isolates from 27 European countries. We show that the frequency of penicillin resistance in S. pneumoniae can be explained by between-host diversity in antibiotic use, heritable diversity in pneumococcal carriage duration, or frequency-dependent selection brought about by within-host competition between antibiotic-resistant and antibiotic-sensitive S. pneumoniae strains. We used our calibrated models to predict the impact of non-serotype-specific pneumococcal vaccination upon the prevalence of S. pneumoniae carriage, incidence of disease, and frequency of S. pneumoniae antibiotic resistance. We found that the relative strength and directionality of competition between drug-resistant and drug-sensitive pneumococcal strains was the most important determinant of whether vaccination would promote, inhibit, or have little effect upon the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Last, we show that country-specific differences in pathogen transmission substantially altered the predicted impact of vaccination, highlighting that policies for managing antibiotic resistance with vaccines must be tailored to a specific pathogen and setting.

The ratio of single to co-colonization is key to complexity in interacting systems with multiple strains

The high number and diversity of microbial strains circulating in host populations have motivated extensive research on the mechanisms that maintain biodiversity. However, much of this work focuses on strain-specific and cross-immunity interactions. Another less explored mode of pairwise interaction is via altered susceptibilities to co-colonization in hosts already colonized by one strain. Diversity in such interaction coefficients enables strains to create dynamically their niches for growth and persistence, and "engineer" their common environment. How such a network of interactions with others mediates collective coexistence remains puzzling analytically and computationally difficult to simulate. Furthermore, the gradients modulating stability-complexity regimes in such multi-player endemic systems remain poorly understood. In a recent study (Madec & Gjini, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 82), we obtained an analytic representation for N-type coexistence in an SIS epidemiological model with co-colonization. We mapped multi-strain dynamics to a replicator equation using timescale separation. Here, we examine what drives coexistence regimes in such co-colonization system. We find the ratio of single to co-colonization, µ, critically determines the type of equilibrium and number of coexisting strains, and encodes a trade-off between overall transmission intensity R 0 and mean interaction coefficient in strain space, k. Preserving a given coexistence regime, under fixed trait variation, requires balancing between higher mean competition in favorable environments, and higher cooperation in harsher environments, and is consistent with the stress gradient hypothesis. Multi-strain coexistence tends to steady-state attractors for small µ, whereas as µ increases, dynamics tend to more complex attractors. Following strain frequencies, evolutionary dynamics in the system also display contrasting patterns with µ, interpolating between multi-stable and fluctuating selection for cooperation and mean invasion fitness, in the two extremes. This co-colonization framework could be applied more generally, to study invariant principles in collective coexistence, and to quantify how critical shifts in community dynamics get potentiated by mean-field and environmental gradients.

Mathematical assessment of the impact of cohort vaccination on pneumococcal carriage and serotype replacement

Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.

Dose-specific Effectiveness of 7- and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against Vaccine-serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae Colonization in Children

BACKGROUND

Reduced-dose pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) schedules are under consideration in countries where children are recommended to receive 3 doses. Whereas PCV-derived protection against vaccine-serotype colonization is responsible for herd effects of vaccination, dose-specific PCV effectiveness against colonization endpoints is not known. We aimed to assess the performance of differing PCV schedules against vaccine-serotype colonization in children.

METHODS

From 2009-2016, we monitored pneumococcal carriage in southern Israel, where children should receive PCV at ages 2 months, 4 months, and 12 months (2 primary [p] +1 booster [b] schedule). We analyzed nasopharyngeal swabs and vaccination histories from 5928 children aged 0-59 months without symptoms of diseases potentially attributable to pneumococci. Matching individuals on age, sex, ethnicity, visit timing, and recent antibiotic receipt, we measured schedule-specific 7-valent PCV (PCV7) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13) effectiveness against vaccine-serotype colonization in a modified case-control framework. We sampled from the distribution of all possible case-control match assignments for statistical analyses.

RESULTS

Receiving 2 primary-series PCV13 doses conferred 53% (95% confidence interval [CI], 32-67%) protection against PCV13-serotype colonization at ages ≤12 months; 1 primary-series dose was not protective. A 2p+1b PCV13 series conferred 40% (95% CI, 4-67%) and 62% (95% CI, 33-83%) protection against PCV13-serotype colonization at ages 13-24 months and 25-59 months, respectively. Estimates suggested greater PCV13-conferred protection against PCV7-targeted serotypes than the 6 PCV13-only serotypes. As compared to children receiving 2p+1b PCV13 dosing, those receiving 1p+1b and 2p+0b schedules experienced 2.05-fold (95% CI, 1.12-5.00) and 3.33-fold (95% CI, 2.28-4.93) greater odds, respectively, of vaccine-serotype pneumococcal colonization at ages 13-24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate real-world effectiveness of 2p+1b PCV dosing against vaccine-serotype colonization. Reduced-dose schedules may confer lower protection against vaccine-serotype carriage during and beyond the first year of life.

Pneumococcal Competition Modulates Antibiotic Resistance in the Pre-Vaccination Era: A Modelling Study

The ongoing emergence of antibiotic resistant strains and high frequencies of antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae poses a major public health challenge. How and which ecological and evolutionary mechanisms maintain the coexistence of antibiotic resistant and susceptible strains remains largely an open question. We developed an individual-based, stochastic model expanding on a previous pneumococci modelling framework. We explore how between- and within-host mechanisms of competition can sustain observed levels of resistance to antibiotics in the pre-vaccination era. Our framework considers that within-host competition for co-colonization between resistant and susceptible strains can arise via pre-existing immunity (immunological competition) or intrinsic fitness differences due to resistance costs (ecological competition). We find that beyond stochasticity, population structure or movement, competition at the within-host level can explain observed resistance frequencies. We compare our simulation results to pneumococcal antibiotic resistance data in the European region using approximate Bayesian computation. Our results demonstrate that ecological competition for co-colonization can explain the variation in co-existence of resistant and susceptible pneumococci observed in the pre-vaccination era. Furthermore, we show that within-host pneumococcal competition can facilitate the maintenance of resistance in the pre-vaccination era. Accounting for these competition-related components of pneumococcal dynamics can improve our understanding of drivers for the emergence and maintenance of antibiotic resistance in pneumococci.

Predicting N-Strain Coexistence from Co-colonization Interactions: Epidemiology Meets Ecology and the Replicator Equation

Multi-type infection processes are ubiquitous in ecology, epidemiology and social systems, but remain hard to analyze and to understand on a fundamental level. Here, we study a multi-strain susceptible-infected-susceptible model with coinfection. A host already colonized by one strain can become more or less vulnerable to co-colonization by a second strain, as a result of facilitating or competitive interactions between the two. Fitness differences between N strains are mediated through \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$N^2$$\end{document}N2 altered susceptibilities to secondary infection that depend on colonizer-cocolonizer identities (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$K_{ij}$$\end{document}Kij). By assuming strain similarity in such pairwise traits, we derive a model reduction for the endemic system using separation of timescales. This ‘quasi-neutrality’ in trait space sets a fast timescale where all strains interact neutrally, and a slow timescale where selective dynamics unfold. We find that these slow dynamics are governed by the replicator equation for N strains. Our framework allows to build the community dynamics bottom-up from only pairwise invasion fitnesses between members. We highlight that mean fitness of the multi-strain network, changes with their individual dynamics, acts equally upon each type, and is a key indicator of system resistance to invasion. By uncovering the link between N-strain epidemiological coexistence and the replicator equation, we show that the ecology of co-colonization relates to Fisher’s fundamental theorem and to Lotka-Volterra systems. Besides efficient computation and complexity reduction for any system size, these results open new perspectives into high-dimensional community ecology, detection of species interactions, and evolution of biodiversity.

Estimating the contribution of different age strata to vaccine serotype pneumococcal transmission in the pre vaccine era: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Herd protection through interruption of transmission has contributed greatly to the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) and may enable the use of cost-saving reduced dose schedules. To aid PCV age targeting to achieve herd protection, we estimated which population age groups contribute most to vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococcal transmission.

METHODS

We used transmission dynamic models to mirror pre-PCV epidemiology in England and Wales, Finland, Kilifi in Kenya and Nha Trang in Vietnam where data on carriage prevalence in infants, pre-school and school-aged children and adults as well as social contact patterns was available. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models and then extracted the per capita and population-based contribution of different age groups to VT transmission.

RESULTS

We estimated that in all settings, < 1-year-old infants cause very frequent secondary vaccine type pneumococcal infections per capita. However, 1-5-year-old children have the much higher contribution to the force of infection at 51% (28, 73), 40% (27, 59), 37% (28, 48) and 67% (41, 86) of the total infection pressure in E&W, Finland, Kilifi and Nha Trang, respectively. Unlike the other settings, school-aged children in Kilifi were the dominant source for VT infections with 42% (29, 54) of all infections caused. Similarly, we estimated that the main source of VT infections in infants are pre-school children and that in Kilifi 39% (28, 51) of VT infant infections stem from school-aged children whereas this was below 15% in the other settings.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine protection of pre-school children is key for PCV herd immunity. However, in high transmission settings, school-aged children may substantially contribute to transmission and likely have waned much of their PCV protection under currently recommended schedules.

Host-Pathogen Interactions in Gram-Positive Bacterial Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite broad literature including basic and translational scientific studies, many gaps in our understanding of host-pathogen interactions remain. In this review, pathogen virulence factors that drive lung infection and injury are discussed in relation to their associated host immune pathways. CAP epidemiology is considered, with a focus on Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae as primary pathogens. Bacterial factors involved in nasal colonization and subsequent virulence are illuminated. A particular emphasis is placed on bacterial pore-forming toxins, host cell death, and inflammasome activation. Identified host-pathogen interactions are then examined by linking pathogen factors to aberrant host response pathways in the context of acute lung injury in both primary and secondary infection. While much is known regarding bacterial virulence and host immune responses, CAP management is still limited to mostly supportive care. It is likely that improvements in therapy will be derived from combinatorial targeting of both pathogen virulence factors and host immunomodulation.

Unraveling the seasonal epidemiology of pneumococcus

Infections caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae-including invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPDs)-remain a significant public health concern worldwide. The marked winter seasonality of IPDs is a striking, but still enigmatic aspect of pneumococcal epidemiology in nontropical climates. Here we confronted age-structured dynamic models of carriage transmission and disease with detailed IPD incidence data to test a range of hypotheses about the components and the mechanisms of pneumococcal seasonality. We find that seasonal variations in climate, influenza-like illnesses, and interindividual contacts jointly explain IPD seasonality. We show that both the carriage acquisition rate and the invasion rate vary seasonally, acting in concert to generate the marked seasonality typical of IPDs. We also find evidence that influenza-like illnesses increase the invasion rate in an age-specific manner, with a more pronounced effect in the elderly than in other demographics. Finally, we quantify the potential impact of seasonally timed interventions, a type of control measures that exploit pneumococcal seasonality to help reduce IPDs. Our findings shed light on the epidemiology of pneumococcus and may have notable implications for the control of pneumococcal infections.

Identifying human encounters that shape the transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae and other acute respiratory infections

Although patterns of social contacts are believed to be an important determinant of infectious disease transmission, it remains unclear how the frequency and nature of human interactions shape an individual's risk of infection. We analysed data on daily social encounters individually matched to data on S. pneumoniae carriage and acute respiratory symptoms (ARS), from 566 individuals who took part in a survey in South-West Uganda. We found that the frequency of physical (i.e. skin-to-skin), long (≥1 h) and household contacts - which capture some measure of close (i.e. relatively intimate) contact - was higher among pneumococcal carriers than non-carriers, and among people with ARS compared to those without, irrespective of their age. With each additional physical encounter the age-adjusted risk of carriage and ARS increased by 6% (95%CI 2-9%) and 7% (2-13%) respectively. In contrast, the number of casual contacts (<5 min long) was not associated with either pneumococcal carriage or ARS. A detailed analysis by age of contacts showed that the number of close contacts with young children (<5 years) was particularly higher among older children and adult carriers than non-carriers, while the higher number of contacts among people suffering from ARS was more homogeneous across contacts of all ages. Our findings provide key evidence that the frequency of close interpersonal contact is important for transmission of respiratory infections, but not that of casual contacts. Those results are essential for both improving disease prevention and control efforts as well as informing research on infectious disease dynamics and transmission models, and more studies should be undertaken to further validate our results.

Use of an individual-based model of pneumococcal carriage for planning a randomized trial of a whole-cell vaccine

For encapsulated bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, asymptomatic carriage is more common and longer in duration than disease, and hence is often a more convenient endpoint for clinical trials of vaccines against these bacteria. However, using a carriage endpoint entails specific challenges. Carriage is almost always measured as prevalence, whereas the vaccine may act by reducing incidence or duration. Thus, to determine sample size requirements, its impact on prevalence must first be estimated. The relationship between incidence and prevalence (or duration and prevalence) is convex, saturating at 100% prevalence. For this reason, the proportional effect of a vaccine on prevalence is typically less than its proportional effect on incidence or duration. This relationship is further complicated in the presence of multiple pathogen strains. In addition, host immunity to carriage accumulates rapidly with frequent exposures in early years of life, creating potentially complex interactions with the vaccine’s effect. We conducted a simulation study to predict the impact of an inactivated whole cell pneumococcal vaccine—believed to reduce carriage duration—on carriage prevalence in different age groups and trial settings. We used an individual-based model of pneumococcal carriage that incorporates relevant immunological processes, both vaccine-induced and naturally acquired. Our simulations showed that for a wide range of vaccine efficacies, sampling time and age at vaccination are important determinants of sample size. There is a window of favorable sampling times during which the required sample size is relatively low, and this window is prolonged with a younger age at vaccination, and in a trial setting with lower transmission intensity. These results illustrate the ability of simulation studies to inform the planning of vaccine trials with carriage endpoints, and the methods we present here can be applied to trials evaluating other pneumococcal vaccine candidates or comparing alternative dosing schedules for the existing conjugate vaccines.

Streptococcus pneumoniae, a bacterium carried in the nasopharynx of many healthy people, is also a leading cause of bacterial pneumonia, sepsis, and ear infections in children aged five years and younger. Vaccines targeting select strains of S. pneumoniae have been effective, and the development of new vaccines, particularly those that target all strains, can further lower disease burden. For clinical trials of these vaccines, the number of study participants needed depends on the expected effect of the vaccine on a conveniently measured outcome: asymptomatic carriage. The most economical way to test a vaccine for its effect on carriage is by measuring prevalence at a specific time, and comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated participants. The relationship between incidence (or duration) and prevalence is complex, and changes with time as children develop natural immunity. We explored this relationship using a mathematical model. Given a vaccine efficacy, our computer simulations predict that fewer study participants are needed if they are vaccinated at a younger age, taken from a population with intermediate levels of transmission, and sampled for carriage at a certain time window: 9 to 18 months after vaccination. Our study illustrates how simulation studies can help plan more efficient vaccine trials.

Pneumococcal Vaccines: Host Interactions, Population Dynamics, and Design Principles

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a nasopharyngeal commensal and respiratory pathogen. Most isolates express a capsule, the species-wide diversity of which has been immunologically classified into ∼100 serotypes. Capsule polysaccharides have been combined into multivalent vaccines widely used in adults, but the T cell independence of the antibody response means they are not protective in infants. Polysaccharide conjugate vaccines (PCVs) trigger a T cell–dependent response through attaching a carrier protein to capsular polysaccharides. The immune response stimulated by PCVs in infants inhibits carriage of vaccine serotypes (VTs), resulting in population-wide herd immunity. These were replaced in carriage by non-VTs. Nevertheless, PCVs drove reductions in infant pneumococcal disease, due to the lower mean invasiveness of the postvaccination bacterial population; age-varying serotype invasiveness resulted in a smaller reduction in adult disease. Alternative vaccines being tested in trials are designed to provide species-wide protection through stimulating innate and cellular immune responses, alongside antibodies to conserved antigens.

Streptococcus pneumoniae's Virulence and Host Immunity: Aging, Diagnostics, and Prevention

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an infectious pathogen responsible for millions of deaths worldwide. Diseases caused by this bacterium are classified as pneumococcal diseases. This pathogen colonizes the nasopharynx of its host asymptomatically, but overtime can migrate to sterile tissues and organs and cause infections. Pneumonia is currently the most common pneumococcal disease. Pneumococcal pneumonia is a global health concern and vastly affects children under the age of five as well as the elderly and individuals with pre-existing health conditions. S. pneumoniae has a large selection of virulence factors that promote adherence, invasion of host tissues, and allows it to escape host immune defenses. A clear understanding of S. pneumoniae's virulence factors, host immune responses, and examining the current techniques available for diagnosis, treatment, and disease prevention will allow for better regulation of the pathogen and its diseases. In terms of disease prevention, other considerations must include the effects of age on responses to vaccines and vaccine efficacy. Ongoing work aims to improve on current vaccination paradigms by including the use of serotype-independent vaccines, such as protein and whole cell vaccines. Extending our knowledge of the biology of, and associated host immune response to S. pneumoniae is paramount for our improvement of pneumococcal disease diagnosis, treatment, and improvement of patient outlook.

Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam

Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC in Nha Trang, Vietnam – a country that has not yet introduced PCV – through a dynamic transmission model. We modelled the impact on carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of routine vaccination (RV) only and that of RV with CCs targeting <1y olds (CC1), <2y olds (CC2) and <5y olds (CC5). The model was fitted to nasopharyngeal carriage data, and post-PCV predictions were based on best estimates of parameters governing post-PCV dynamics. With RV only, elimination in carriage of vaccine-type (VT) serotypes is predicted to occur across all age groups within 10 years after introduction, with near-complete replacement by non-VT. Most of the benefit of CCs is predicted to occur within the first 3 years with the highest impact at one year, when IPD incidence is predicted to be 11% (95%CrI 9 – 14%) lower than RV with CC1, 25% (21 – 30 %) lower with CC2 and 38% (32 – 46%) lower with CC5. However, CCs would only prevent more cases of IPD insofar as such campaigns do not delay introduction by more than about 6, 12 and 18 months for CC1, CC2 and CC5. Those findings are important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia.

Potential impact of introducing the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into national immunisation programmes: an economic-epidemiological analysis using data from India

Pneumococcal pneumonia causes an estimated 105 000 child deaths in India annually. The planned introduction of the serotype-based pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is expected to avert child deaths, but the high cost of PCV relative to current vaccines provided under the Universal Immunization Programme has been a concern. Cost-effectiveness studies from high-income countries are not readily comparable because of differences in the distribution of prevalent serotypes, population and health systems. We extended IndiaSim, our agent-based simulation model representative of the Indian population and health system, to model the dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae. This enabled us to evaluate serotype and overall disease dynamics in the context of the local population and health system, an aspect that is missing in prospective evaluations of the vaccine. We estimate that PCV13 introduction would cost approximately US$240 million and avert US$48.7 million in out-of-pocket expenditures and 34 800 (95% CI 29 600 to 40 800) deaths annually assuming coverage levels and distribution similar to DPT (diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus) vaccination (~77%). Introducing the vaccine protects the population, especially the poorest wealth quintile, from potentially catastrophic expenditure. The net-present value of predicted money-metric value of insurance for 20 years of vaccination is US$160 000 (95% CI US$151 000 to US$168 000) per 100 000 under-fives, and almost half of this protection is for the bottom wealth quintile (US$78 000; 95% CI 70 800 to 84 400). Extending vaccination to 90% coverage averts additional lives and provides additional financial risk protection. Our estimates are sensitive to immunity parameters in our model; however, our assumptions are conservative, and if willingness to pay per years of life lost averted is US$228 or greater, then introducing the vaccine is more cost-effective than our baseline (no vaccination) in more than 95% of simulations.

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact.

Vaccination can drive an increase in frequencies of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae

The bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major public health concern, being responsible for more than 1.5 million deaths annually through pneumonia, meningitis, and septicemia. Available vaccines target only a subset of serotypes, so vaccination is often accompanied by a rise in the frequency of nonvaccine serotypes. Epidemiological studies suggest that such a change in serotype frequencies is often coupled with an increase of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes. Building on previous multilocus models for bacterial pathogen population structure, we have developed a theoretical framework incorporating variation of serotype and antibiotic resistance to examine how their associations may be affected by vaccination. Using this framework, we find that vaccination can result in a rapid increase in the frequency of preexisting resistant variants of nonvaccine serotypes due to the removal of competition from vaccine serotypes.

Frequency-dependent selection in vaccine-associated pneumococcal population dynamics

Many bacterial species are composed of multiple lineages distinguished by extensive variation in gene content. These often cocirculate in the same habitat, but the evolutionary and ecological processes that shape these complex populations are poorly understood. Addressing these questions is particularly important for Streptococcus pneumoniae, a nasopharyngeal commensal and respiratory pathogen, because the changes in population structure associated with the recent introduction of partial-coverage vaccines have substantially reduced pneumococcal disease. Here we show that pneumococcal lineages from multiple populations each have a distinct combination of intermediate-frequency genes. Functional analysis suggested that these loci may be subject to negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) through interactions with other bacteria, hosts or mobile elements. Correspondingly, these genes had similar frequencies in four populations with dissimilar lineage compositions. These frequencies were maintained following substantial alterations in lineage prevalences once vaccination programmes began. Fitting a multilocus NFDS model of post-vaccine population dynamics to three genomic datasets using Approximate Bayesian Computation generated reproducible estimates of the influence of NFDS on pneumococcal evolution, the strength of which varied between loci. Simulations replicated the stable frequency of lineages unperturbed by vaccination, patterns of serotype switching and clonal replacement. This framework highlights how bacterial ecology affects the impact of clinical interventions.

Effect of Simultaneous Exposure of Pigs to Streptococcus suis Serotypes 2 and 9 on Their Colonization and Transmission, and on Mortality

The distribution of Streptococcus suis serotypes isolated from clinically infected pigs differs between geographical areas, and varies over time. In several European countries, predomination of serotype 2 has changed to serotype 9. We hypothesize a relation, with one serotype affecting the other in colonization and invasion. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether simultaneous exposure of pigs to serotypes 2 and 9 affects colonization and transmission of each type, and mortality. Thirty-six caesarean-derived/colostrum-deprived piglets were randomly assigned to three groups, and there housed pair-wise. At six weeks old, one pig per pair was inoculated with either one (serotype 2 or 9; mono-group) or two serotypes simultaneously (dual-group); the other pig was contact-exposed. Tonsillar and nasal samples were collected within three weeks post inoculation. Bacterial loads in samples were quantified using multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Transmission rates of the serotypes among pigs were estimated using a mathematical Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model. Bacterial loads and transmission rates did not differ significantly between serotypes. Compared to the mono-group, in the dual-group the average serotype 2 load in tonsillar samples from contact pigs was reduced on days 1 to 4 and on day 6. Simultaneous exposure to the serotypes reduced the mortality hazard 6.3 times (95% C.I.: 2.0–19.8) compared to exposure to serotype 2 only, and increased it 6.6 times (95% C.I.: 1.4–30.9) compared to exposure to serotype 9 only. This study indicates that serotype 2 load and mortality were affected in pigs exposed to these two serotypes.

Identifying transmission routes of Streptococcus pneumoniae and sources of acquisitions in high transmission communities

Identifying the transmission sources and reservoirs of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a long-standing question for pneumococcal epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and vaccine policy. Here we use serotype to identify SP transmission and examine acquisitions (in the same household, local community, and county, or of unidentified origin) in a longitudinal cohort of children and adults from the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache American Indian Tribes. We found that adults acquire SP relatively more in the household than other age groups, and children 2-8 years old typically acquire in their own or surrounding communities. Age-specific transmission probability matrices show that transmissions within household were mostly seen from older to younger siblings. Outside the household, children most often transmit to other children in the same age group, showing age-assortative mixing behavior. We find toddlers and older children to be most involved in SP transmission and acquisition, indicating their role as key drivers of SP epidemiology. Although infants have high carriage prevalence, they do not play a central role in transmission of SP compared with toddlers and older children. Our results are relevant to inform alternative pneumococcal conjugate vaccine dosing strategies and analytic efforts to inform optimization of vaccine programs, as well as assessing the transmission dynamics of pathogens transmitted by close contact in general.

Transmission Fitness in Co-colonization and the Persistence of Bacterial Pathogens

Humans are often colonized by polymorphic bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, Bordetella pertussis, Staphylococcus Aureus, and Haemophilus influenzae. Two co-colonizing pathogen clones may interact with each other upon host entry and during within-host dynamics, ranging from competition to facilitation. Here we examine the significance of these exploitation strategies for bacterial spread and persistence in host populations. We model SIS epidemiological dynamics to capture the global behavior of such multi-strain systems, focusing on different parameters of single and dual colonization. We analyze the impact of heterogeneity in clearance and transmission rates of single and dual colonization and find the criteria under which these asymmetries enhance endemic persistence. We obtain a backward bifurcation near [Formula: see text] if the reproductive value of the parasite in dually infected hosts is sufficiently higher than that in singly infected ones. In such cases, the parasite is able to persist even in sub-threshold conditions, and reducing the basic reproduction number below 1 would be insufficient for elimination. The fitness superiority in co-colonized hosts can be attained by lowering net parasite clearance rate ([Formula: see text]), by increasing transmission rate ([Formula: see text]), or both, and coupling between these traits critically constrains opportunities of pathogen survival in the [Formula: see text] regime. Finally, using an adaptive dynamics approach, we verify that despite their importance for sub-threshold endemicity, traits expressed exclusively in coinfection should generally evolve independently of single infection traits. In particular, for [Formula: see text] a saturating parabolic or hyperbolic function of [Formula: see text], co-colonization traits evolve to an intermediate optimum (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS), determined only by host lifespan and the trade-off parameters linking [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Our study invites more empirical attention to the dynamics and evolution of parasite life-history traits expressed exclusively in coinfection.

Sustained reduction in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease despite waning effects of a catch-up campaign in Kilifi, Kenya: A mathematical model based on pre-vaccination data

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We predict a substantial decline in the carriage prevalence of vaccine serotypes.

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About a 56% reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease is also predicted.

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The decline is predicted to be sustainable ten years post-vaccination.

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The current vaccination schedule is unlikely to achieve elimination of vaccine serotypes.

Background

In 2011, Kenya introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine together with a catch-up campaign for children aged <5 years in Kilifi County. In a post-vaccination surveillance study based in Kilifi, there was a substantial decline in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). However, given the continued circulation of the vaccine serotypes it is possible that vaccine-serotype disease may re-emerge once the effects of the catch-up campaign wear off.

Methods

We developed a compartmental, age-structured dynamic model of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease for three serotype groups: the 10-valent vaccine serotypes and two groups of non-vaccine serotypes based on their susceptibility to mutual competition. The model was calibrated to age- and serotype-specific data on carriage and IPD in the pre-vaccination era and used to predict carriage prevalence and IPD up to ten years post-vaccination in Kilifi. The model was validated against the observed carriage prevalence after vaccine introduction.

Results

The model predicts a sustained reduction in vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage prevalence from 33% to 8% in infants and from 30% to 8% in 1–5 year olds over the 10-year period following vaccine introduction. The incidence of IPD is predicted to decline across all age groups resulting in an overall reduction of 56% in the population, corresponding to 10.4 cases per 100,000 per year. The vaccine-type IPD incidence is estimated to decline by 83% while non-vaccine-type IPD incidence is predicted to increase by 52%. The model's predictions of carriage prevalence agrees well with the observed data in the first five years post-vaccination.

Conclusion

We predict a sustained and substantial decline in IPD through PCV vaccination and that the current regimen is insufficient to fully eliminate vaccine-serotype circulation in the model. We show that the observed impact is likely to be sustained despite waning effects of the catch-up campaign.

Comparison of traditional culture and molecular qPCR for detection of simultaneous carriage of multiple pneumococcal serotypes in African children

S. pneumoniae is a common colonizer of the human nasopharynx in high income and low-middle income countries. Due to limitations of standard culture methods, the prevalence of concurrent colonization with multiple serotypes is unclear. We evaluated the use of multiplex quantitative PCR (qPCR) to detect multiple pneumococcal serotypes/group colonization in archived nasopharyngeal swabs of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine naive children who had previously been investigated by traditional culture methods. Overall the detection of pneumococcal colonization was higher by qPCR (82%) compared to standard culture (71%; p < 0.001), with a high concordance (kappa = 0.73) of serotypes/groups identified by culture also being identified by qPCR. Also, qPCR was more sensitive in detecting multiple serotype/groups among colonized cases (28.7%) compared to culture (4.5%; p < 0.001). Of the additional serotypes detected only by qPCR, the majority were of lower density (<10⁴ CFU/ml) than the dominant colonizing serotype, with serotype/group 6A/B, 19B/F and 23F being the highest density colonizers, followed by serotype 5 and serogroup 9A/L/N/V being the most common second and third colonizers respectively. The ability of qPCR to detect multiple pneumococcal serotypes at a low carriage density might provide better insight into underlying mechanism for changes in serotype colonization in PCV vaccinated children.

Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7

Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as by socio-demographic and genetic host factors. Understanding efficacy variation has implications for population-level effectiveness and other eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here I show that realized VE can vary across epidemiological settings, by applying a multi-site-one-model approach to data post-vaccination. I analyse serotype prevalence dynamics following PCV7, in asymptomatic carriage in children attending day care in Portugal, Norway, France, Greece, Hungary and Hong-Kong. Model fitting to each dataset provides site-specific estimates for vaccine efficacy against acquisition, and pneumococcal transmission parameters. According to this model, variable serotype replacement across sites can be explained through variable PCV7 efficacy, ranging from 40% in Norway to 10% in Hong-Kong. While the details of how this effect is achieved remain to be determined, here I report three factors negatively associated with the VE readout, including initial prevalence of serotype 19F, daily mean temperature, and the Gini index. The study warrants more attention on local modulators of vaccine performance and calls for predictive frameworks within and across populations.

Assessing the efficiency of catch-up campaigns for the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: a modelling study based on data from PCV10 introduction in Kilifi, Kenya

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organisation recommends the use of catch-up campaigns as part of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to accelerate herd protection and hence PCV impact. The value of a catch-up campaign is a trade-off between the costs of vaccinating additional age groups and the benefit of additional direct and indirect protection. There is a paucity of observational data, particularly from low- and middle-income countries, to quantify the optimal breadth of such catch-up campaigns.

METHODS

In Kilifi, Kenya, PCV10 was introduced in 2011 using the three-dose Expanded Programme on Immunisation infant schedule and a catch-up campaign in children <5 years old. We fitted a transmission dynamic model to detailed local data, including nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), to infer the marginal impact of the PCV catch-up campaign over hypothetical routine cohort vaccination in that setting and to estimate the likely impact of alternative campaigns and their dose efficiency.

RESULTS

We estimated that, within 10 years of introduction, the catch-up campaign among children <5 years old prevents an additional 65 (48-84) IPD cases across age groups, compared to PCV cohort introduction alone. Vaccination without any catch-up campaign prevented 155 (121-193) IPD cases and used 1321 (1058-1698) PCV doses per IPD case prevented. In the years after implementation, the PCV programme gradually accrues herd protection, and hence its dose efficiency increases: 10 years after the start of cohort vaccination alone the programme used 910 (732-1184) doses per IPD case averted. We estimated that a two-dose catch-up among children <1 year old uses an additional 910 (732-1184) doses per additional IPD case averted. Furthermore, by extending a single-dose catch-up campaign to children aged 1 to <2 years and subsequently to those aged 2 to <5 years, the campaign uses an additional 412 (296-606) and 543 (403-763) doses per additional IPD case averted. These results were not sensitive to vaccine coverage, serotype competition, the duration of vaccine protection or the relative protection of infants.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that catch-up campaigns are a highly dose-efficient way to accelerate population protection against pneumococcal disease.

Evolution of antibiotic resistance is linked to any genetic mechanism affecting bacterial duration of carriage

Understanding how changes in antibiotic consumption affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens is important for public health. In a number of bacterial species, including Streptococcus pneumoniae, the prevalence of resistance has remained relatively stable despite prolonged selection pressure from antibiotics. The evolutionary processes allowing the robust coexistence of antibiotic sensitive and resistant strains are not fully understood. While allelic diversity can be maintained at a locus by direct balancing selection, there is no evidence for such selection acting in the case of resistance. In this work, we propose a mechanism for maintaining coexistence at the resistance locus: linkage to a second locus that is under balancing selection and that modulates the fitness effect of resistance. We show that duration of carriage plays such a role, with long duration of carriage increasing the fitness advantage gained from resistance. We therefore predict that resistance will be more common in strains with a long duration of carriage and that mechanisms maintaining diversity in duration of carriage will also maintain diversity in antibiotic resistance. We test these predictions in S. pneumoniae and find that the duration of carriage of a serotype is indeed positively correlated with the prevalence of resistance in that serotype. These findings suggest heterogeneity in duration of carriage is a partial explanation for the coexistence of sensitive and resistant strains and that factors determining bacterial duration of carriage will also affect the prevalence of resistance.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis cases in France between 2001 and 2014: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal meningitis (PM) is a major invasive pneumococcal disease. Two pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced in France: PCV7 was recommended in 2003 and replaced in 2010 by PCV13, which has six additional serotypes. The impact of introducing those vaccines on the evolution of PM case numbers and serotype distributions in France from 2001 to 2014 is assessed herein.

METHODS

Data on 5166 Streptococcus pneumoniae strains isolated from cerebrospinal fluid between 2001 and 2014 in the 22 regions of France were obtained from the National Reference Center for Pneumococci. The effects of the different vaccination campaigns were estimated using time series analyses through autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous variables ("flu-like" syndromes incidence) and intervention functions. Intervention functions used 11 dummy variables representing each post vaccine epidemiological period. The evolution of serotype distributions was assessed for the entire population and the two most exposed age groups (<5 and > 64 years old).

RESULTS

For the first time since PCV7 introduction in 2003, total PM cases decreased significantly after starting PCV13 use: -7.1 (95% CI, -10.85 to -3.35) cases per month during 2013-2014, and was confirmed in children < 5 years old (-3.5; 95% CI, -4.81 to -2.13) and adults > 64 years old (-2.0; 95% CI, -3.36 to -0.57). During 2012-2014, different non-vaccine serotypes emerged: 12F, 24F in the entire population and children, 6C in the elderly; serotypes 3 and 19F persisted in the entire population.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike other European countries, the total PM cases in France declined only after introduction of PCV13. This suggests that vaccine pressure alone does not explain pneumococcal epidemiological changes and that other factors could play a role. Serotype distribution had changed substantially compared to the pre-vaccine era, as in other European countries, but very differently from the US. A highly reactive surveillance system is thus necessary not only to monitor evolutions due to vaccine pressure and to verify the local serotypic appropriateness of new higher-valent pneumococcal vaccines, but also to recognise and prevent unexpected changes due to other internal or external factors.

Metabolic competition as a driver of bacterial population structure

Understanding the processes whereby diversity arises and is maintained in pathogen populations is pivotal for designing disease control interventions. A particular problem is the maintenance of strain structure in bacterial pathogen populations despite frequent genetic exchange. Although several theoretical frameworks have been put forward to explain this widespread phenomenon, few have focused on the role of genes encoding metabolic functions, despite an increasing recognition of their importance in pathogenesis and transmission. In this article, we review the literature for evidence of metabolic niches within the host and discuss theoretical frameworks which examine ecological interactions between metabolic genes. We contend that metabolic competition is an important phenomenon which contributes to the maintenance of population structure and diversity of many bacterial pathogens.

Simultaneous Quantification and Differentiation of Streptococcus suis Serotypes 2 and 9 by Quantitative Real-Time PCR, Evaluated in Tonsillar and Nasal Samples of Pigs

Invasive Streptococcus suis (S. suis) infections in pigs are often associated with serotypes 2 and 9. Mucosal sites of healthy pigs can be colonized with these serotypes, often multiple serotypes per pig. To unravel the contribution of these serotypes in pathogenesis and epidemiology, simultaneous quantification of serotypes is needed. A quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) targeting cps2J (serotypes 2 and 1/2) and cps9H (serotype 9) was evaluated with nasal and tonsillar samples from S. suis exposed pigs. qPCR specifically detected serotypes in all pig samples. The serotypes loads in pig samples estimated by qPCR showed, except for serotype 9 in tonsillar samples (correlation coefficient = 0.25), moderate to strong correlation with loads detected by culture (correlation coefficient > 0.65), and also in pigs exposed to both serotypes (correlation coefficient > 0.75). This qPCR is suitable for simultaneous differentiation and quantification of important S. suis serotypes.

New Pneumococcal Carriage Acquired in Association with Acute Respiratory Infection Is Prone to Cause Otitis Media

For considering vaccine-prevention of pneumococcal acute otitis media (PncAOM), relationships between pneumococcal carriage, respiratory infection and PncAOM need to be understood. We analyzed nasopharyngeal samples collected from 329 unvaccinated Finnish children aged 2-24 months at scheduled visits and at visits during respiratory infection in 1994-97. We assessed temporal associations of respiratory infection with pneumococcal acquisition and whether PncAOM hazard depends on the relative timing of acquisition and the infection onset. The data comprised 607 person-years of risk-time for acquisition, 245 person-months of concurrent respiratory infection and carriage, and 119 episodes of PncAOM. The acquisition hazard was 3-fold in the month preceding respiratory sickness (hazard ratio, HR 3.5, 90% credible interval CI 2.9, 4.1) as compared to acquisition in healthy children. Moreover, the PncAOM hazard was markedly higher (HR 3.7, 90% CI 2.4, 5.3) during the first month of carriage acquired around the acute phase of respiratory infection (between 1 month before and 1 week after the sickness onset), as compared to carriage acquired later during sickness. The high proportion (76%) of PncAOM events occurring within 1 month of acquisition was due to frequent acquisition being associated with respiratory infection as well as the susceptibility of such acquisition to cause otitis media.

Novel Strategy To Protect against Influenza Virus-Induced Pneumococcal Disease without Interfering with Commensal Colonization

Streptococcus pneumoniae commonly inhabits the nasopharynx as a member of the commensal biofilm. Infection with respiratory viruses, such as influenza A virus, induces commensal S. pneumoniae to disseminate beyond the nasopharynx and to elicit severe infections of the middle ears, lungs, and blood that are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Current preventive strategies, including the polysaccharide conjugate vaccines, aim to eliminate asymptomatic carriage with vaccine-type pneumococci. However, this has resulted in serotype replacement with, so far, less fit pneumococcal strains, which has changed the nasopharyngeal flora, opening the niche for entry of other virulent pathogens (e.g., Streptococcus pyogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and potentially Haemophilus influenzae). The long-term effects of these changes are unknown. Here, we present an attractive, alternative preventive approach where we subvert virus-induced pneumococcal disease without interfering with commensal colonization, thus specifically targeting disease-causing organisms. In that regard, pneumococcal surface protein A (PspA), a major surface protein of pneumococci, is a promising vaccine target. Intradermal (i.d.) immunization of mice with recombinant PspA in combination with LT-IIb(T13I), a novel i.d. adjuvant of the type II heat-labile enterotoxin family, elicited strong systemic PspA-specific IgG responses without inducing mucosal anti-PspA IgA responses. This response protected mice from otitis media, pneumonia, and septicemia and averted the cytokine storm associated with septic infection but had no effect on asymptomatic colonization. Our results firmly demonstrated that this immunization strategy against virally induced pneumococcal disease can be conferred without disturbing the desirable preexisting commensal colonization of the nasopharynx.

Estimation and interpretation of heterogeneous vaccine efficacy against recurrent infections

Vaccine-induced protection may not be homogeneous across individuals. It is possible that a vaccine gives complete protection for a portion of individuals, while the rest acquire only incomplete (leaky) protection of varying magnitude. If vaccine efficacy is estimated under wrong assumptions about such individual level heterogeneity, the resulting estimates may be difficult to interpret. For instance, population-level predictions based on such estimates may be biased. We consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous vaccine efficacy against an infection that can be acquired multiple times (susceptible-infected-susceptible model). The estimation is based on a limited number of repeated measurements of the current status of each individual, a situation commonly encountered in practice. We investigate how the placement of consecutive samples affects the estimability and efficiency of vaccine efficacy parameters. The same sampling frequency may not be optimal for efficient estimation of all components of heterogeneous vaccine protection. However, we suggest practical guidelines allowing estimation of all components. For situations in which the estimability of individual components fails, we suggest to use summary measures of vaccine efficacy.

How direct competition shapes coexistence and vaccine effects in multi-strain pathogen systems

We describe an integrated modeling framework for understanding strain coexistence in polymorphic pathogen systems. Previous studies have debated the utility of neutral formulations and focused on cross-immunity between strains as a major stabilizing mechanism. Here we convey that direct competition for colonization mediates stable coexistence only when competitive abilities amongst pathogen clones satisfy certain pairwise asymmetries. We illustrate our ideas with nested SIS models of single and dual colonization, applied to polymorphic pneumococcal bacteria. By fitting the models to cross-sectional prevalence data from Portugal (before and after the introduction of a seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine), we are able to not only statistically compare neutral and non-neutral epidemiological formulations, but also estimate vaccine efficacy, transmission and competition parameters simultaneously. Our study highlights that the response of polymorphic pathogen populations to interventions holds crucial information about strain interactions, which can be extracted by suitable nested modeling.

Effect of Serotype on Pneumococcal Competition in a Mouse Colonization Model

Competitive interactions between Streptococcus pneumoniae strains during host colonization could influence the serotype distribution in nasopharyngeal carriage and pneumococcal disease. We evaluated the competitive fitness of strains of serotypes 6B, 14, 19A, 19F, 23F, and 35B in a mouse model of multiserotype carriage. Isogenic variants were constructed using clinical strains as the capsule gene donors. Animals were intranasally inoculated with a mixture of up to six pneumococcal strains of different serotypes, with separate experiments involving either clinical isolates or isogenic capsule-switch variants of clinical strain TIGR4. Upper-respiratory-tract samples were repeatedly collected from animals in order to monitor changes in the serotype ratios using quantitative PCR. A reproducible hierarchy of capsular types developed in the airways of mice inoculated with multiple strains. Serotype ranks in this hierarchy were similar among pneumococcal strains of different genetic backgrounds in different strains of mice and were not altered when tested under a range of host conditions. This rank correlated with the measure of the metabolic cost of capsule synthesis and in vitro measure of pneumococcal cell surface charge, both parameters considered to be predictors of serotype-specific fitness in carriage. This study demonstrates the presence of a robust competitive hierarchy of pneumococcal serotypes in vivo that is driven mainly, but not exclusively, by the capsule itself.

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is the leading cause of death due to respiratory bacterial infections but also a commensal frequently carried in upper airways. Available vaccines induce immune responses against polysaccharides coating pneumococcal cells, but with over 90 different capsular types (serotypes) identified, they can only target strains of the selected few serotypes most prevalent in disease. Vaccines not only protect vaccinated individuals against disease but also protect by reducing carriage of vaccine-targeted strains to induce herd effects across whole populations. Unfortunately, reduction in the circulation of vaccine-type strains is offset by increase in carriage and disease from nonvaccine strains, indicating the importance of competitive interactions between pneumococci in shaping the population structure of this pathogen. Here, we showed that the competitive ability of pneumococcal strains to colonize the host strongly depends on the type of capsular polysaccharide expressed by pneumococci and only to a lesser degree on strain or host genetic backgrounds or on variation in host immune responses.

Nasopharyngeal Bacterial Carriage in the Conjugate Vaccine Era with a Focus on Pneumococci

Seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was included in the UK national immunisation program in 2006, and this was replaced by thirteen-valent PCV in 2010. During this time, the carriage of vaccine-type Streptococcus pneumoniae decreased but pneumococcal carriage remained stable due to increases in non-vaccine-type S. pneumoniae. Carriage studies have been undertaken in various countries to monitor vaccine-type replacement and to help predict the serotypes, which may cause invasive disease. There has been less focus on how conjugate vaccines indirectly affect colonization of other nasopharyngeal bacteria. If the nasopharynx is treated as a niche, then bacterial dynamics are accepted to occur. Alterations in these dynamics have been shown due to seasonal changes, antibiotic use, and sibling/day care interaction. It has been shown that, following PCV7 introduction, an eradication of pneumococcal vaccine types has resulted in increases in the abundance of other respiratory pathogens including Haemophilus influenzae and Staphylococcus aureus. These changes are difficult to attribute to PCV7 introduction alone and these studies do not account for further changes due to PCV13 implementation. This review aims to describe nasopharyngeal cocarriage of respiratory pathogens in the PCV era.

Decreased Carriage and Genetic Shifts in the Streptococcus pneumoniae Population After Changing the Seven-valent to the Thirteen-valent Pneumococcal Vaccine in Norway

BACKGROUND

Shifts in the pneumococcal population colonizing healthy children are expected after switching from a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) to a 13-valent (PCV13) in the childhood immunization program. We assessed effects of the switch by comparing pneumococcal carriage and serotype and genetic diversity of pneumococci carried by children in the PCV13-era with those carried in the prevaccination-era and PCV7-era.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained in autumn 2013 from children attending day-care centers (874 swabs, 583 isolates). Serotyping, multilocus sequence typing and antimicrobial susceptibility testing were performed on all isolates. Results were compared with samples from 2006 (610 swabs, 538 isolates) and 2008 (600 swabs, 562 isolates).

RESULTS

The carriage prevalence in 2013 was 62 of 100 children (95% confidence intervals: 58-66), a significant decrease from 2006 and 2008. PCV13 serotypes accounted for 7% of isolates in 2013. Non-PCV13 prevalence increased from 2006 to 2008 [prevalence ratio: 1.73 (1.40-2.15)] but remained stable in 2013 [0.99 (0.88-1.12)]. Still, non-PCV13 serotypes 21, 23B, 23A and 22F had increased. In 2013, the serotype and genetic diversity had decreased slightly, and distinct serotype and genetic profiles clustered more within day-care centers compared with the earlier samples. Serotype switch was uncommon. Overall, antimicrobial resistance was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Carriage of PCV13 serotypes has decreased without a coinciding increase in non-PCV13 serotypes. The serotype and genetic shifts among non-PCV13 serotypes suggest that a new equilibrium has not yet been reached. As the few non-PCV13 serotypes that increased have generally a lower invasive capacity than vaccine serotypes, direct and indirect protection of PCV13 on invasive pneumococcal disease can be expected to continue.

The Efficacy and Duration of Protection of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against Nasopharyngeal Carriage: A Meta-regression Model

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) reduce disease largely through their impact on nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage acquisition of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a precondition for developing any form of pneumococcal disease. We aimed to estimate the vaccine efficacy (VEC) and duration of protection of PCVs against S. pneumoniae carriage acquisition through meta-regression models.

METHODS

We identified intervention studies providing NP carriage estimates among vaccinated and unvaccinated children at any time after completion of a full vaccination schedule. We calculated VEC for PCV7 serotypes, grouped as well as individually, and explored cross-protective efficacy against 6A. Efficacy estimates over time were obtained using a Bayesian meta-logistic regression approach, with time since completion of vaccination as a covariate.

RESULTS

We used data from 22 carriage surveys (15 independent studies) from 5 to 64 months after the last PCV dose, including 14,298 children. The aggregate VEC for all PCV7 serotypes 6 months after completion of the vaccination schedule was 57% (95% credible interval: 50-65%), varying by serotype from 38% (19F) to 80%. Our model provides evidence of sustained protection of PCVs for several years, with an aggregate VEC of 42% (95% credible interval: 19-54%) at 5 years, although the waning differed between serotypes. We also found evidence of cross-protection against 6A, with a VEC of 39% 6 months after a complete schedule, decreasing to 0 within 5 years postvaccination.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that PCVs confer reasonable protection against acquisition of pneumococcal carriage of the 7 studied serotypes, for several years after vaccination, albeit with differences across serotypes.

Interaction of Vaccination and Reduction of Antibiotic Use Drives Unexpected Increase of Pneumococcal Meningitis

Antibiotic-use policies may affect pneumococcal conjugate-vaccine effectiveness. The reported increase of pneumococcal meningitis from 2001 to 2009 in France, where a national campaign to reduce antibiotic use was implemented in parallel to the introduction of the 7-valent conjugate vaccine, provides unique data to assess these effects. We constructed a mechanistic pneumococcal transmission model and used likelihood to assess the ability of competing hypotheses to explain that increase. We find that a model integrating a fitness cost of penicillin resistance successfully explains the overall and age-stratified pattern of serotype replacement. By simulating counterfactual scenarios of public health interventions in France, we propose that this fitness cost caused a gradual and pernicious interaction between the two interventions by increasing the spread of nonvaccine, penicillin-susceptible strains. More generally, our results indicate that reductions of antibiotic use may counteract the benefits of conjugate vaccines introduced into countries with low vaccine-serotype coverages and high-resistance frequencies. Our findings highlight the key role of antibiotic use in vaccine-induced serotype replacement and suggest the need for more integrated approaches to control pneumococcal infections.

Bacterial load of pneumococcal serotypes correlates with their prevalence and multiple serotypes is associated with acute respiratory infections among children less than 5 years of age

Background

Among pneumococcal serotypes, some serotypes are more prevalent in the nasopharynx than others; determining factors for higher prevalence remain to be fully explored. As non-vaccine serotypes have emerged after the introduction of 7-valent conjugate vaccines, study of serotype specific epidemiology is in need. When two or more serotypes co-colonize, they evolve rapidly to defend host's immune responses; however, a clear association of co-colonization with a clinical outcome is lacking.

Methods

Children less than 5 years old who were admitted to hospital due to acute respiratory infections (ARI) (n = 595) and healthy children (n = 350) were recruited. Carriage of pneumococcus was determined by culture and lytA PCR in the nasopharyngeal samples. Serotype/serogroup detection and its quantification were done by the nanofluidic real time PCR system. Spearman's correlation and logistic regression were used to examine a correlation of serotype/serogroup specific bacterial load with its prevalence and an association of co-colonization with ARI respectively.

Results

Serotype/serogroup specific bacterial load was correlated with its prevalence, both in ARI cases (Spearman's rho = 0.44, n = 186; P<0.0001) and healthy children (Spearman's rho = 0.41, n = 115; P<0.0001). The prevalence of multiple serotypes was more common in ARI cases than in healthy children (18.5% vs 7.1%; aOR 2.92, 95% CI: 1.27–6.71; P = 0.01). The dominant serotype in the co-colonization had a 2 log10 higher bacterial load than the subdominant serotype, both in ARI cases (P<0.001) and healthy children (P<0.05).

Conclusions

High bacterial load in the nasopharynx may help transmit pneumococci among hosts, and increase the chance of successful acquisition and colonization. Co-colonization of multiple serotypes of pneumococci is linked with ARI, which infers the interactions of multiple serotypes may increase their pathogenicity; however, they may compete for growth in number.

Pathogen evolution and the immunological niche

Host immunity is a major driver of pathogen evolution and thus a major determinant of pathogen diversity. Explanations for pathogen diversity traditionally assume simple interactions between pathogens and the immune system, a view encapsulated by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. However, there is growing evidence that the complexity of many host-pathogen interactions is dynamically important. This revised perspective requires broadening the definition of a pathogen's immunological phenotype, or what can be thought of as its immunological niche. After reviewing evidence that interactions between pathogens and host immunity drive much of pathogen evolution, I introduce the concept of a pathogen's immunological phenotype. Models that depart from the SIR paradigm demonstrate the utility of this perspective and show that it is particularly useful in understanding vaccine-induced evolution. This paper highlights questions in immunology, evolution, and ecology that must be answered to advance theories of pathogen diversity.

Population- and type-specific clustering of multiple HPV types across diverse risk populations in the Netherlands

In view of possible type replacement upon introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we aimed to explore patterns of type-specific clustering across populations with various background infection risks. A total of 3,874 women from 3 cross-sectional studies in the Netherlands (in 2007-2009) provided vaginal self-samples, which were tested for 25 HPV genotypes by a sensitive molecular assay (SPF10 line probe assay, DDL Diagnostic Laboratory, Voorburg, the Netherlands). The number of concurrent HPV infections per woman was studied by Poisson regression. Associations between HPV types were investigated by generalized estimating equation analyses. The prevalence of any HPV type was 14% in a population-based study, 54% in a chlamydia screening intervention study, and 73% in a study among attendees of sexually transmitted infection clinics. Overall, multiple HPV infections were detected in 26% of the women. The number of concurrent HPV infections conformed to an overdispersed Poisson distribution, even after correction for known risk factors. Types differed significantly in their tendencies to be involved in coinfections, but no evidence for particular type-type interactions was found. Moreover, the strongest associations were observed in the lowest-risk population and vice versa.We found no indications of pairwise interactions, but our findings do suggest that clustering differs among HPV types and varies across risk groups.