Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out

Inference of transmission dynamics and retrospective forecast of invasive meningococcal disease

The pathogenic bacteria Neisseria meningitidis, which causes invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), predominantly colonizes humans asymptomatically; however, invasive disease occurs in a small proportion of the population. Here, we explore the seasonality of IMD and develop and validate a suite of models for simulating and forecasting disease outcomes in the United States. We combine the models into multi-model ensembles (MME) based on the past performance of the individual models, as well as a naive equally weighted aggregation, and compare the retrospective forecast performance over a six-month forecast horizon. Deployment of the complete vaccination regimen, introduced in 2011, coincided with a change in the periodicity of IMD, suggesting altered transmission dynamics. We found that a model forced with the period obtained by local power wavelet decomposition best fit and forecast observations. In addition, the MME performed the best across the entire study period. Finally, our study included US-level data until 2022, allowing study of a possible IMD rebound after relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, no evidence of a rebound was found. Our findings demonstrate the ability of process-based models to retrospectively forecast IMD and provide a first analysis of the seasonality of IMD before and after the complete vaccination regimen.

Learning from history of natural disasters in the Sahel: a comprehensive analysis and lessons for future resilience

One of the first environmental crises to attract interest in development initiatives and aid was the great drought of the 1970s in the Sahel. This study investigates the extent of damage caused by natural disasters from one of the most widely used databases-EM-DAT-with a sample size of 16 Sahelian countries over the period 1960-2020. These countries have been divided into three regions: Western Africa Sahel (WAS), Central Africa Sahel (CAS), and Eastern Africa Sahel (EAS). The analyses encompass four categories of natural hazards, namely, biological, climatological, hydrological, and meteorological. We used descriptive and test statistics to summarize the natural disaster records. Through this approach, we explore tendencies to identify the most frequently reported natural hazards; we examine their spatial distribution and evaluate their impacts in terms of socioeconomic damage and causalities. During the study period, a total of 1000 events were recorded in the database. The Western Africa Sahel (WAS) region had the highest number of disasters, with 476 events, followed by the Eastern Africa Sahel (EAS) region with 369 events. The most common hazards in the Sahel were hydrological (41.8%), mainly floods, and biological (39.5%) hazards. Approximately 300 million people in the Sahel were affected by natural hazards, with 59.17% in EAS, 36.48% in WAS, and 4.35% in CAS. Although droughts occurred less frequently (14%), they had a significant impact on the population, affecting 84% of those affected by natural hazards. In general, EAS experiences a higher impact from natural hazards, potentially influenced by the pastoral lifestyle of its population. However, WAS is also very vulnerable to natural hazards especially epidemics and nowadays floods. The uncontrolled urbanization in the area may contribute to this vulnerability.

A mathematical interpretation for outbreaks of bacterial meningitis under the effect of time-dependent transmission parameters

We consider a SIR-type compartmental model divided into two age classes to explain the seasonal exacerbations of bacterial meningitis, especially among children outside of the meningitis belt. We describe the seasonal forcing through time-dependent transmission parameters that may represent the outbreak of the meningitis cases after the annual pilgrimage period (Hajj) or uncontrolled inflows of irregular immigrants. We present and analyse a mathematical model with time-dependent transmission. We consider not only periodic functions in the analysis but also general non-periodic transmission processes. We show that the long-time average values of transmission functions can be used as a stability marker of the equilibrium. Furthermore, we interpret the basic reproduction number in case of time-dependent transmission functions. Numerical simulations support and help visualize the theoretical results.

Operationalizing Appropriate Sepsis Definitions in Children Worldwide: Considerations for the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce

Sepsis is a leading cause of global mortality in children, yet definitions for pediatric sepsis are outdated and lack global applicability and validity. In adults, the Sepsis-3 Definition Taskforce queried databases from high-income countries to develop and validate the criteria. The merit of this definition has been widely acknowledged; however, important considerations about less-resourced and more diverse settings pose challenges to its use globally. To improve applicability and relevance globally, the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce sought to develop a conceptual framework and rationale of the critical aspects and context-specific factors that must be considered for the optimal operationalization of future pediatric sepsis definitions. It is important to address challenges in developing a set of pediatric sepsis criteria which capture manifestations of illnesses with vastly different etiologies and underlying mechanisms. Ideal criteria need to be unambiguous, and capable of adapting to the different contexts in which children with suspected infections are present around the globe. Additionally, criteria need to facilitate early recognition and timely escalation of treatment to prevent progression and limit life-threatening organ dysfunction. To address these challenges, locally adaptable solutions are required, which permit individualized care based on available resources and the pretest probability of sepsis. This should facilitate affordable diagnostics which support risk stratification and prediction of likely treatment responses, and solutions for locally relevant outcome measures. For this purpose, global collaborative databases need to be established, using minimum variable datasets from routinely collected data. In summary, a "Think globally, act locally" approach is required.

Impacts of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Neurologic Health, Disease, and Practice: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Although the international community collectively seeks to reduce global temperature rise to less than 1.5°C before 2100, irreversible environmental changes have already occurred, and as the planet warms, these changes will continue to occur. As we witness the effects of a warming planet on human health, it is imperative that neurologists anticipate how the epidemiology and incidence of neurologic disease may change. In this review, we organized our analysis around 3 key themes related to climate change and neurologic health: extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations, emerging neuroinfectious diseases, and pollutant impacts. Across each of these themes, we appraised and reviewed recent literature relevant to neurologic disease and practice.

METHODS

Studies were identified using search terms relating to climate change, pollutants, and neurologic disease in PubMed, OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, and gray literature. Studies published between 1990 and 2022 were included if they pertained to human incidence or prevalence of disease, were in English, and were relevant to neurologic disease.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 364 articles, grouped into the 3 key themes of our study: extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations (38 studies), emerging neuroinfectious diseases (37 studies), and pollutant impacts (289 studies). The included studies highlighted the relationships between neurologic symptom exacerbation and temperature variability, tick-borne infections and warming climates, and airborne pollutants and cerebrovascular disease incidence and severity.

DISCUSSION

Temperature extremes and variability both associated with stroke incidence and severity, migraine headaches, hospitalization in patients with dementia, and multiple sclerosis exacerbations. Exposure to airborne pollutants, especially PM2.5 and nitrates, associated with stroke incidence and severity, headaches, dementia risk, Parkinson disease, and MS exacerbation. Climate change has demonstrably expanded favorable conditions for zoonotic diseases beyond traditional borders and poses the risk of disease in new, susceptible populations. Articles were biased toward resource-rich regions, suggesting a discordance between where research occurs and where changes are most acute. As such, 3 key priorities emerged for further study: neuroinfectious disease risk mitigation, understanding the pathophysiology of airborne pollutants on the nervous system, and methods to improve delivery of neurologic care in the face of climate-related disruptions.

Association between Meningococcal Meningitis and Santa Ana Winds in Children and Adolescents from Tijuana, Mexico: A Need for Vaccination

Background: Based on previous studies (regional and national), Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (across the border from San Diego, California, USA), has been shown to have the highest rate of meningococcal meningitis (MeM) in the country. However, the reason for this high incidence has not yet been established. To explain this regional/endemic public health problem, we aimed to evaluate whether there is a climatic association with MeM in the region. In the “African Meningitis Belt,” the Harmattan seasons are associated with MeM outbreaks; similarly, the Santa Ana winds (SAWs) seasons are characterized by hot and dry winds (similar to Harmattan seasons) that occur seasonally in Southwest California, USA, and Northwest Baja California, Mexico. Objectives: We aimed to determine a potential association of SAWs with MeM in Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico, which in turn may partially explain the high rate of this disease in the region. Methods: Based on our previously published data obtained from thirteen years of active surveillance of MeM and a 65-year review showing the seasonal occurrence of SAWs, we estimated the risk ratio (RR) for the total case numbers of MeM (51 cases of children < 16 years old) vs. bacterial meningitis not caused by Neisseria meningitidis (NMeM, 30 cases, same age group) during seasons with and without SAWs. Results: We found an association between SAWs and MeM, but not with NMeM (RR = 2.06, p = 0.02 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.8), which may partially explain the high endemicity of this deadly disease in this part of the globe. Conclusion: This study shows a new potential climatic association with MeM and provides more information that justifies universal meningococcal vaccination in Tijuana, Mexico.

Temporal Relationships Between Saharan Dust Proxies, Climate, and Meningitis in Senegal

The Harmattan, a dry, northeasterly trade wind, transports large quantities of Saharan dust over the Sahelian region during the dry season (December-March). Studies have shown that bacterial meningitis outbreaks in Sahelian regions show hyper-endemic to endemic levels during high-dust months. We examine the (a) seasonality and intraseasonal variability of dust, climate, and meningitis and the (b) quantitative relationships between various dust proxies with meningitis lags of 0-10 weeks in Senegal from 2012 to 2017. The results show that the onset of the meningitis season occurs in February, roughly 2 months after the dusty season has begun. The meningitis season peaks at the beginning of April, when northeasterly wind speeds and particulate matter (PM) are relatively high, and the meningitis season ends near the end of June, when temperature and humidity rise and northeasterly wind speeds decline. Furthermore, we find that Senegal's relatively high humidity year-round may help slow the transmission of the infection, contributing to a lower disease incidence than landlocked countries in the meningitis belt. Lastly, our results suggest the desert dust may have a significant impact on the onset to the peak of the meningitis season in Senegal, particularly at the 0-2 and 10-week lag, whether that be directly through biological processes or indirectly through changes in human behavior. PM and visibility, however, are not in phase with aerosol optical depth throughout the year and consequently show different relationships with meningitis. This study further exemplifies the critical need for more PM, meteorological, and meningitis measurements in West Africa to further resolve these relationships.

Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa

West African countries are hit annually by meningitis outbreaks which occur during the dry season and are linked to atmospheric variability. This paper describes an innovative co-production process between the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD; forecast producer) and the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO; forecast user) to support awareness, preparedness and response actions for meningitis outbreaks. Using sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, this co-production enables ACMAD and WHO AFRO to build initiative that increases the production of useful climate services in the health sector. Temperature and relative humidity forecasts are combined with dust forecasts to operationalize a meningitis early warning system (MEWS) across the African meningitis belt with a two-week lead time. To prevent and control meningitis, the MEWS is produced from week 1 to 26 of the year. This study demonstrates that S2S forecasts have good skill at predicting dry and warm atmospheric conditions precede meningitis outbreaks. Vigilance levels objectively defined within the MEWS are consistent with reported cases of meningitis. Alongside developing a MEWS, the co-production process provided a framework for analysis of climate and environmental risks based on reanalysis data, meningitis burden, and health service assessment, to support the development of a qualitative roadmap of country prioritization for defeating meningitis by 2030 across the WHO African region. The roadmap has enabled the identification of countries most vulnerable to meningitis epidemics, and in the context of climate change, supports plans for preventing, preparing, and responding to meningitis outbreaks.

High-spatial resolution epidemic surveillance of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt in Burkina Faso

Despite improved surveillance capacities and WHO recommendations for subdistrict analysis, routine epidemic surveillance of acute bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remains largely limited to the district level. We evaluated the appropriateness and performance of analyses at higher spatial resolution. We used suspected meningitis surveillance data at health centre (HC) resolution from Burkina Faso from 14 health districts spanning years 2004-2014 and analysed them using spatio-temporal statistics and generative models. An operational analysis compared epidemic signals at district and HC-level using weekly incidence thresholds. Eighty-four percent (N = 98/116) of epidemic clusters spanned only one HC-week. Spatial propagation of epidemic clusters was mostly limited to 10-30 km. During the 2004-2009 (with serogroup A meningitis) and 2010-2014 (after serogroup A elimination) period, using weekly HC-level incidence thresholds of 100 and 50 per 100,000 respectively, we found a gain in epidemic detection and timeliness in 9 (41% of total) and 10 (67%), respectively, district years with at least one HC signal. Individual meningitis epidemics expanded little in space, suggesting that a health centre level analysis is most appropriate for epidemic surveillance. Epidemic surveillance could gain in precision and timeliness by higher spatial resolution. The optimal threshold should be defined depending on the current background incidence of bacterial meningitis.

Climate change and emergency care in Africa: A scoping review

Introduction

Climate change is a global public health emergency with implications for access to care and emergency care service disruptions. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to climate-related extreme weather events due to an already overburdened health system, lack of early warning signs, poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and variable adaptive capacity. Emergency care services are not only utilized during these events but also threatened by these hazards. Considering that the effects of climate change are expected to increase in intensity and prevalence, it is increasingly important for emergency care to prepare to respond to the changes in presentation and demand. The aim of this study was to perform a scoping review of the available literature on the relationship between climate change and emergency care on the African continent.

Methods

A scoping review was completed using five databases: Pubmed, Web of Science, GreenFILE, Africa Wide Information, and Google Scholar. A 'grey' literature search was done to identify key reports and references from included articles. Two independent reviewers screened articles and a third reviewer decided conflicts. A total of 1,382 individual articles were initially screened with 17 meeting full text review. A total of six articles were included in the final analysis. Data from four countries were represented including Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, and Nigeria.

Results

Analysis of the six articles yielded three key themes that were identified: climate-related health impacts that contribute to surges in demand and resource utilization, opportunities for health sector engagement, and solutions to improve emergency preparedness. Authors used the outcomes of the review to propose 10 recommendations for decision-makers and leaders.

DXDiscussion

Incorporating these key recommendations at the local and national level could help improve preparedness and adaptation measures in highly vulnerable, populated areas on the African continent.

Meningitis during COVID -19 pandemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo: A call for concern

Meningitis is a severe infection and a major public health challenge. The meningitis outbreak which had resurfaced amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been further stressing the health care systems that are already overburdened with detecting, preventing, and treating the current coronavirus disease. The recent meningitis outbreak in the DRC has resulted in a high case fatality ratio of 50% - an extremely worrying concern. Robust strategies are hence needed to curb the spread of the disease amid the COVID-19 pandemic, to prevent further adverse health outcomes and to mitigate the compounding burden on the country's healthcare systems. Several measures such as vaccination campaigns, adherence to sanitation and hygiene, improved surveillance and diagnostic capabilities could help prevent future epidemics in the country.

An overview of bacterial meningitis epidemics in Africa from 1928 to 2018 with a focus on epidemics "outside-the-belt"

Background

Bacterial meningitis occurs worldwide but Africa remains the most affected continent, especially in the "Meningitis belt" that extends from Senegal to Ethiopia. Three main bacteria are responsible for causing bacterial meningitis, i.e., N. meningitidis (Nm), S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type b. Among Nm, serogroup A used to be responsible for up to 80 to 85% of meningococcal meningitis cases in Africa. Since 2000, other Nm serogroups including W, X and C have also been responsible for causing epidemics. This overview aims to describe the main patterns of meningitis disease cases and pathogens from 1928 to 2018 in Africa with a special focus on disease conditions “out-of-the-belt” area that is still usually unexplored. Based on basic spatio-temporal methods, and a 90-years database of reported suspected meningitis cases and death from the World Health Organization, we used both geographic information system and spatio-temporal statistics to identify the major localizations of meningitis epidemics over this period in Africa.

Results

Bacterial meningitis extends today outside its historical limits of the meningitis belt. Since the introduction of MenAfrivac vaccine in 2010, there has been a dramatic decrease in NmA cases while other pathogen species and Nm variants including NmW, NmC and Streptococcus pneumoniae have become more prevalent reflecting a greater diversity of bacterial strains causing meningitis epidemics in Africa today.

Conclusion

Bacterial meningitis remains a major public health problem in Africa today. Formerly concentrated in the region of the meningitis belt with Sub-Saharan and Sudanian environmental conditions, the disease extends now outside these historical limits to reach more forested regions in the central parts of the continent. With global environmental changes and massive vaccination targeting a unique serogroup, an epidemiological transition of bacterial meningitis is ongoing, requiring both a better consideration of the etiological nature of the responsible agents and of their proximal and distal determinants.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06724-1.

Global Health Impacts of Dust Storms: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Dust storms and their impacts on health are becoming a major public health issue. The current study examines the health impacts of dust storms around the world to provide an overview of this issue.

METHOD

In this systematic review, 140 relevant and authoritative English articles on the impacts of dust storms on health (up to September 2019) were identified and extracted from 28 968 articles using valid keywords from various databases (PubMed, WOS, EMBASE, and Scopus) and multiple screening steps. Selected papers were then qualitatively examined and evaluated. Evaluation results were summarized using an Extraction Table.

RESULTS

The results of the study are divided into two parts: short and long-term impacts of dust storms. Short-term impacts include mortality, visitation, emergency medical dispatch, hospitalization, increased symptoms, and decreased pulmonary function. Long-term impacts include pregnancy, cognitive difficulties, and birth problems. Additionally, this study shows that dust storms have devastating impacts on health, affecting cardiovascular and respiratory health in particular.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study show that dust storms have significant public health impacts. More attention should be paid to these natural hazards to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate these hazardous events to reduce their negative health impacts.Registration: PROSPERO registration number CRD42018093325.

The environmental drivers of bacterial meningitis epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, central Africa

INTRODUCTION

Bacterial meningitis still constitutes an important threat in Africa. In the meningitis belt, a clear seasonal pattern in the incidence of meningococcal disease during the dry season has been previously correlated with several environmental parameters like dust and sand particles as well as the Harmattan winds. In parallel, the evidence of seasonality in meningitis dynamics and its environmental variables remain poorly studied outside the meningitis belt. This study explores several environmental factors associated with meningitis cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), central Africa, outside the meningitis belt area.

METHODS

Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis' tests were used to establish the difference between the different health zones, climate and vegetation types in relation to both the number of cases and attack rates for the period 2000-2018. The relationships between the number of meningitis cases for the different health zones and environmental and socio-economical parameters collected were modeled using different generalized linear (GLMs) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and different error structure in the different models, i.e., Poisson, binomial negative, zero-inflated binomial negative and more elaborated multi-hierarchical zero-inflated binomial negative models, with randomization of certain parameters or factors (health zones, vegetation and climate types). Comparing the different statistical models, the model with the smallest Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were selected as the best ones. 515 different health zones from 26 distinct provinces were considered for the construction of the different GLM and GLMM models.

RESULTS

Non-parametric bivariate statistics showed that there were more meningitis cases in urban health zones than in rural conditions (χ2 = 6.910, p-value = 0.009), in areas dominated by savannah landscape than in areas with dense forest or forest in mountainous areas (χ2 = 15.185, p-value = 0.001), and with no significant difference between climate types (χ2 = 1.211, p-value = 0,449). Additionally, no significant difference was observed for attack rate between the two types of heath zones (χ2 = 0.982, p-value = 0.322). Conversely, strong differences in attack rate values were obtained for vegetation types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001) and climate types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001). This work demonstrates that, all other parameters kept constant, an urban health zone located at high latitude and longitude eastwards, located at low-altitude like in valley ecosystems predominantly covered by savannah biome, with a humid tropical climate are at higher risk for the development of meningitis. In addition, the regions with mean range temperature and a population with a low index of economic well-being (IEW) constitute the perfect conditions for the development of meningitis in DRC.

CONCLUSION

In a context of global environmental change, particularly climate change, our findings tend to show that an interplay of different environmental and socio-economic drivers are important to consider in the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis epidemics in DRC. This information is important to help improving meningitis control strategies in a large country located outside of the so-called meningitis belt.

Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Nigeria From 2010 to 2016, Prior to and During the Phased Introduction of the 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine

Background

Historically, Nigeria has experienced large bacterial meningitis outbreaks with high mortality in children. Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus), Neisseria meningitidis (meningococcus), and Haemophilus influenzae are major causes of this invasive disease. In collaboration with the World Health Organization, we conducted longitudinal surveillance in sentinel hospitals within Nigeria to establish the burden of pediatric bacterial meningitis (PBM).

Methods

From 2010 to 2016, cerebrospinal fluid was collected from children <5 years of age, admitted to 5 sentinel hospitals in 5 Nigerian states. Microbiological and latex agglutination techniques were performed to detect the presence of pneumococcus, meningococcus, and H. influenzae. Species-specific polymerase chain reaction and serotyping/grouping were conducted to determine specific causative agents of PBM.

Results

A total of 5134 children with suspected meningitis were enrolled at the participating hospitals; of these 153 (2.9%) were confirmed PBM cases. The mortality rate for those infected was 15.0% (23/153). The dominant pathogen was pneumococcus (46.4%: 71/153) followed by meningococcus (34.6%: 53/153) and H. influenzae (19.0%: 29/153). Nearly half the pneumococcal meningitis cases successfully serotyped (46.4%: 13/28) were caused by serotypes that are included in the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. The most prevalent meningococcal and H. influenzae strains were serogroup W and serotype b, respectively.

Conclusions

Vaccine-type bacterial meningitis continues to be common among children <5 years in Nigeria. Challenges with vaccine introduction and coverage may explain some of these finding. Continued surveillance is needed to determine the distribution of serotypes/groups of meningeal pathogens across Nigeria and help inform and sustain vaccination policies in the country.

Climate and climate-sensitive diseases in semi-arid regions: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

We aim to describe the relationships between climate variables and climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) in semi-arid regions, highlighting the different main groups of CSDs and their climate patterns.

METHODS

This systematic review considered Medline, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science. The data collection period was August and September 2019 and included studies published between 2008 and 2019. This study followed a protocol based on the PRISMA statement. Data analysis was done in a qualitative way.

RESULTS

The most of works were from Africa, Asia and Iran (71%), where temperature was the main climatic variable. Although the studies provide climatic conditions that are more favorable for the incidence of vector-borne and respiratory diseases, the influence of seasonal patterns on the onset, development and end of CSDs is still poorly understood, especially for gastrointestinal disorders. Moreover, little is known about the impact of droughts on CSDs.

CONCLUSIONS

This review summarized the state of art of the relationship between climate and CSDs in semi-arid regions. Moreover, a research agenda was provided, which is fundamental for health policy development, priority setting and public health management.

Early warning climate indices for malaria and meningitis in tropical ecological zones

This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate indices on the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria and meningitis in Nigeria. The primary focus of the research is to develop an Early Warning System (EWS) for assessing climate variability implications on malaria and meningitis spread in the study area. Both climate and health data were used in the study to determine the relationship between climate variability and the occurrence of malaria and meningitis. The assessment was based on variations in different ecological zones in Nigeria. Two specific sample locations were randomly selected in each ecological zone for the analysis. The climatic data used in this study are dekadal precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature between 2000 and 2018, monthly aerosol optical depth between 2000 and 2018. The results show that temperature is relatively high throughout the year because the country is located in a tropical region. The significant findings of this study are that rainfall has much influence on the occurrence of malaria, while temperature and aerosol have more impact on meningitis. We found the degree of relationship between precipitation and malaria, there is a correlation coefficient R2 ≥ 70.0 in Rainforest, Freshwater, and Mangrove ecological zones. The relationship between temperature and meningitis is accompanied by R2 ≥ 72.0 in both Sahel and Sudan, while aerosol and meningitis harbour R2 = 77.33 in the Sahel. The assessment of this initial data seems to support the finding that the occurrences of meningitis are higher in the northern region, especially the Sahel and Sudan. In contrast, malaria occurrence is higher in the southern part of the study area. In all, the multiple linear regression results revealed that rainfall was directly associated with malaria with β = 0.64, p = 0.001 but aerosol was directly associated with meningitis with β = 0.59, p < 0.001. The study concludes that variability in climatic elements such as low precipitation, high temperature, and aerosol may be the major drivers of meningitis occurrence.

Geospatial clustering of meningitis: an early warning system (hotspot) for potential meningitis outbreak in upper east region of Ghana

OBJECTIVE

We mapped and generated hot spots for potential meningitis outbreak from existing data in Upper East region, Ghana.

DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 2017.

DATA SOURCE

Meningitis data in the Upper East Region from January 2007, to December 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We used spatial tools in Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geoda to draw choropleth map of meningitis incidence, case fatality and hotspot for potential meningitis outbreak.

RESULTS

A total of 2312 meningitis cases (suspected and confirmed) were recorded from 2016-2017 with median incidence of 15.0cases/100,000 population (min 6.3, max 47.8). Median age of cases was 15 years (IQR: 6-31 years). Most (44.2%) of those affected were 10 years and below. Females (51.2%) constituted the highest proportion. Median incidence from 2007-2011 was 20cases/100,000 population (Min 11.3, Max 39.9) whilst from 2012-2016 was 11.1cases/100,000 populations (Min 6.3, Max 47.8). A total of 28 significant hotspot sub-districts clusters (p=0.024) were identified with 7 High-high risk areas as potential meningitis outbreak spots.

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of meningitis is not random, spatial cluster with high -high-risk exist in some sub-districts. Overall meningitis incidence and fatality rate have declined in the region with district variations. Districts with high meningitis incidence and fatality rates should be targeted for intervention.

FUNDING

Author EA was supported by the West Africa Health Organization (Ref.: Prog/A17IEpidemSurveillN°57212014/mcrt).

Characterization of Bacteria on Aerosols From Dust Events in Dakar, Senegal, West Africa

We identify bacteria types on collected dust samples in Dakar Senegal, a region that experiences frequent Saharan dust events. We use classical techniques to identify bacteria types from dust samples. Seventy-seven bacteria types are identified from samples collected by spatula and the QuickTake® 30 air sampling pump. The dominant groups in the first batch of 51 bacteria (collected via deposition) are Micrococcus (33.33%), Bacillus (13.73%), Kytococcus (11.76%), Pseudomonas (9.80%), and Burkholderia (7.84%) and dominants in the second batch of 26 bacteria (collected with aerosol sampling vacuum pump): Pseudomonas (38.61%), Burkholderia (26.92%), Micrococcus (11.54%), and Brucella spp (7.69%). These bacteria are found in earlier studies from desert sources and can potentially cause respiratory diseases to exposed populations. Future work will use molecular methods is necessary to search for additional pathogens, including viruses on dust aerosols.

Psychosocial perception of the effects of harmattan dust on the environment and health of building occupants in Maiduguri, Nigeria

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the psychosocial perception of harmattan dust on building openings, health and housekeeping to determine the influence of the dust on building occupants.

Design/methodology/approach

Population-representative survey data were collected from Maiduguri, Northeastern Nigeria, through physical administration of questionnaires by assessing several variables. Statistical package SPSS 16.0 was used for the data analysis, which is mainly descriptive analysis in frequencies, percentages and means together with a repeated Pearson’s chi-square analysis to identify the relationship between the factors and the significance testing.

Findings

The results show that majority (94.3%) experienced dust problem in harmattan season, and a larger part (76.6%) confirmed that the dust penetrates through doors and windows. Higher percentage (91.2%) noticed that the dust particles on their floor/furniture surfaces, and on an average, people clean their houses three times daily in harmattan season. Majority (80.5%) of the respondents smell dust in the harmattan season, and greater part (77.9%) experienced health challenges in this season, of which 12.8% confirmed harmattan dust aggravates their asthma, 13.6% confirmed it causes headache, 3.1% confirmed it exacerbated pneumonia, 58.5% confirmed it causes coughing, 3.5% confirmed catarrh, 2.3% confirmed nasal/respiratory congestion, sneezing and bronchitis and 6.2% experienced eye problems. Moreover, the results indicate that number/types of openings in a building are significantly associated with factors including smelling dust in the harmattan season and health problem experienced because of dust indoors. The number of times people clean their homes/workplaces is significantly related to important variables such as experiencing dust problem in harmattan season and number/type of openings in a building. The results further established that the health problem experienced by people is significantly related to important variables including dust problem experienced in the harmattan season and type of openings in a room.

Originality/value

Harmattan dust is a serious challenge to health and well-being of building occupants in the study area. The built environment professionals need to optimize building openings for effective dust control indoors.

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of meningitis epidemics outside the belt: the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

BACKGROUND

Bacterial meningitis remains a major threat for the population of the meningitis belt. Between 2004 and 2009, in the countries of this belt, more than 200,000 people were infected with a 10% mortality rate. However, for almost 20 years, important meningitis epidemics are also reported outside this belt. Research is still very poorly developed in this part of the word like in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which experiences recurrent epidemics. This article describes for the first time the spatio-temporal patterns of meningitis cases and epidemics in DRC, in order to provide new insights for surveillance and control measures.

METHODS

Based on weekly suspected cases of meningitis (2000-2012), we used time-series analyses to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease. We also used both geographic information systems and geostatistics to identify spatial clusters of cases. Both using conventional statistics and the Cleveland's algorithm for decomposition into general trend, seasonal and residuals, we searched for the existence of seasonality.

RESULTS

We observed a low rate of biological confirmation of cases (11%) using soluble antigens search, culture and PCR. The main strains found are Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Neisseria meningitidis (A and C) serogroups. We identified 8 distinct spatial clusters, located in the northeastern and southeastern part of DRC, and in the capital city province, Kinshasa. A low seasonal trend was observed with higher incidence and attack rate of meningitis during the dry season, with a high heterogeneity in seasonal patterns occurring across the different districts and regions of DRC.

CONCLUSION

Despite challenges related to completeness of data reporting, meningitis dynamics shows weak seasonality in DRC. This tends to suggest that climatic, environmental factors might be less preponderant in shaping seasonal patterns in central Africa. The characterization of 8 distinct clusters of meningitis could be used for a better sentinel meningitis surveillance and optimization of vaccine strategy in DRC. Improving biological monitoring of suspected cases should be a priority for future eco-epidemiological studies to better understand the emergence and spread of meningitis pathogens, and the potential ecological, environmental drivers of this disease.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of meningococcal meningitis transmission dynamics

Meningococcal meningitis (MCM) is one of the serious public health threats in the tropical and sub-tropical regions. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of MCM with high- and low-risk susceptible populations. The model considers two different groups of susceptible individuals depending on the availability of medical resources (MR, including hospitals, health workers, etc.), which varies the infection risk. We find that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB), which increases the difficulty of MCM control since the dynamics are not merely relying on the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. This study explores the effects of MR on the MCM epidemics by mathematical analysis and shows the existence of BB on MCM disease. Our findings suggest that providing adequate MR in a community is crucial in mitigating MCM incidences and deaths, especially, in the MCM endemic regions.

Human genetics of meningococcal infections

Neisseria meningitidis is a leading cause of bacterial septicaemia and meningitis worldwide. Meningococcal disease is rare but can be life threatening with a tendency to affect children. Many studies have investigated the role of human genetics in predisposition to N. meningitidis infection. These have identified both rare single-gene mutations as well as more common polymorphisms associated with meningococcal disease susceptibility and severity. These findings provide clues to the pathogenesis of N. meningitidis, the basis of host susceptibility to infection and to the aetiology of severe disease. From the multiple discoveries of monogenic complement deficiencies to the associations of complement factor H and complement factor H-related three polymorphisms to meningococcal disease, the complement pathway is highlighted as being central to the genetic control of meningococcal disease. This review aims to summarise the current understanding of the host genetic basis of meningococcal disease with respect to the different stages of meningococcal infection.

Observed and Modeled Seasonal Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Senegal During 2015 and 2016

In this work, we use existing particulate matter (PM) data from Dakar, Senegal, satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate the role of dust transport from the Sahara and PM concentrations and exposure into other administrative districts of Senegal during 2015 and 2016. We also use data from the Ministry of Health to examine spatial and temporal patterns of acute respiratory infections, asthma, bronchitis, and tuberculosis across Senegal with an emphasis on Northern Hemisphere winter December-February, when air quality is poor, and June-August when there is an improvement in air quality. Measurements in Dakar, Senegal, suggest hazardous PM10 concentrations associated with Saharan dust storms but lower PM10 concentrations during the summer. The WRF dust simulations show a similar temporal pattern to the observations in Dakar, Senegal, with notable biases. However, the WRF model suggests that the highest dust concentrations are found across the northern half of Senegal during the winter season where there are no currently PM measurements. Health data during 2015-2016 show the highest prevalence of asthma and bronchitis in Dakar, Senegal, suggesting that other sources of air pollution are important. Acute respiratory infection is prevalent throughout the country with the high prevalence found in rural zones, for children between 12 and 59 months. All measures including real-time monitoring, air quality forecast, and communication should be used to protect the public from potentially hazardous environmental conditions during the winter season.

Theoretical assessment of the impact of desert aerosols on the dynamical transmission of meningitidis serogroup A

This paper has been motivated by the following biological question: how influential are desert aerosols in the transmission of meningitidis serogroup A (MenA)? A mathematical model for the dynamical transmission of MenA is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of desert aerosols. Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed in order to determine the impact of related parameters on meningitis outbreak. We derive the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. We prove that there exists a threshold parameter [Formula: see text] such that when [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS). However, when [Formula: see text], the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. At the endemic level, we show that the number of infectious individuals in the presence of desert aerosols is larger than the corresponding number without the presence of desert aerosols. In conjunction with the inequality [Formula: see text] where [Formula: see text] is the basic reproduction number without desert aerosols, we found that the ingestion of aerosols by carriers will increase the endemic level, and the severity of the outbreak. This suggests that the control of MenA passes through a combination of a large coverage vaccination of young susceptible individuals and the production of a vaccine with a high level of efficacy as well as respecting the hygienic rules to avoid the inhalation of desert aerosols. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%-75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81-$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Atmospheric Dust, Early Cases, and Localized Meningitis Epidemics in the African Meningitis Belt: An Analysis Using High Spatial Resolution Data

BACKGROUND

Bacterial meningitis causes a high burden of disease in the African meningitis belt, with regular seasonal hyperendemicity and sporadic short, but intense, localized epidemics during the late dry season occurring at a small spatial scale [i.e., below the district level, in individual health centers (HCs)]. In addition, epidemic waves with larger geographic extent occur every 7-10 y. Although atmospheric dust load is thought to be an essential factor for hyperendemicity, its role for localized epidemics remains hypothetic.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to evaluate the association of localized meningitis epidemics in HC catchment areas with the dust load and the occurrence of cases in the same population early in the dry season.

METHODS

We compiled weekly reported cases of suspected bacterial meningitis at the HC resolution for 14 districts of Burkina Faso for the period 2004-2014. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the association of epidemic HC-weeks with atmospheric dust [approximated by the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) satellite product] and with the observation of early meningitis cases during October-December.

RESULTS

Although AOT was strongly associated with epidemic HC-weeks in crude analyses across all HC-weeks during the meningitis season [odds ratio (OR) [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 4.90, 9.50], the association was no longer apparent when controlling for calendar week (OR [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.50). The number of early meningitis cases reported during October-December was associated with epidemic HC-weeks in the same HC catchment area during January-May of the following year (OR for each additional early case [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.21).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial variations of atmospheric dust load do not seem to be a factor in the occurrence of localized meningitis epidemics, and the factor triggering them remains to be identified. The pathophysiological mechanism linking early cases to localized epidemics is not understood, but their occurrence and number of early cases could be an indicator for epidemic risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2752.

WRF 1960-2014 Winter Season Simulations of Particulate Matter in the Sahel: Implications for Air Quality and Respiratory Health

We use the Weather Research and Forecast model using the Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) dust module (WRF-CHEM) to simulate the particulate matter (PM) variations in the Sahel during the winter seasons (January-March) of 1960-2014. Two simulations are undertaken where the direct aerosol feedback is turned off, and only transport is considered and where the direct aerosol feedback is turned on. We find that simulated Sahelian PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were lower in the 1960s and after 2003 and higher during the period between 1988 and 2002. Higher Sahelian PM10 concentrations are due to stronger winds between the surface and 925 hPa over the Sahara, which transport dust into the Sahel. Negative PM10 concentration anomalies are found over the Bodele Depression and associated with weaker 925 wind anomalies after 1997 through 2014. Further west, positive PM10 concentration anomalies are found across the Adrar Plateau in the Sahara and responsible for dust transport to the Western Sahel. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positively correlated to Sahelian dust concentrations especially during the periods of 1960-1970 and 1988-2002. The temporal/spatial patterns of PM10 concentrations have significant respiratory health implications for inhabitants of the Sahel.

Global Ramifications of Dust and Sandstorm Microbiota

Dust and sandstorm events inject substantial quantities of foreign microorganisms into global ecosystems, with the ability to impact distant environments. The majority of these microorganisms originate from deserts and drylands where the soil is laden with highly stress-resistant microbes capable of thriving under extreme environmental conditions, and a substantial portion of them survive long journeys through the atmosphere. This large-scale transmission of highly resilient alien microbial contaminants raises concerns with regards to the invasion of sensitive and/or pristine sink environments, and to human health-concerns exacerbated by increases in the rate of desertification. Further increases in the transport of dust-associated microbiota could extend the spread of foreign microbes to new ecosystems, increase their load in present sink environments, disrupt ecosystem balance, and potentially introduce new pathogens. Our present understanding of these microorganisms, their phylogenic affiliations and functional significance, is insufficient to determine their impact. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of available data regarding dust and sandstorm microbiota and their potential ramifications on human and ecosystem health. We conclude by discussing current gaps in dust and sandstorm microbiota research, and the need for collaborative studies involving high-resolution meta-omic approaches in conjunction with extensive ecological time-series studies to advance the field towards an improved and sufficient understanding of these invisible atmospheric travelers and their global ramifications.

Lung health in era of climate change and dust storms

Dust storms are strong winds which lead to particle exposure over extensive areas. These storms influence air quality on both a local and global scale which lead to both short and long-term effects. The frequency of dust storms has been on the rise during the last decade. Forecasts suggest that their incidence will increase as a response to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Elderly people, young children, and individuals with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases are at the greatest risk for health effects of dust storms. A wide variety of infectious and non-infectious diseases have been associated with dust exposure. Influenza A virus, pulmonary coccidioidomycosis, bacterial pneumonia, and meningococcal meningitis are a few examples of dust-related infectious diseases. Among non-infectious diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, sarcoidosis and pulmonary fibrosis have been associated with dust contact. Here, we review two molecular mechanisms of dust induced lung disease for asthma and sarcoidosis. We can also then further understand the mechanisms by which dust particles disturb airway epithelial and immune cells.

Seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis: a time-series analysis

Background

Bacterial meningitis, which is caused mainly by Neisseria meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae, inflicts a substantial burden of disease worldwide. Yet, the temporal dynamics of this disease are poorly characterised and many questions remain about the ecology of the disease. We aimed to comprehensively assess seasonal trends in bacterial meningitis on a global scale.

Methods

We developed the first bacterial meningitis global database by compiling monthly incidence data as reported by country-level surveillance systems. Using country-level wavelet analysis, we identified whether a 12 month periodic component (annual seasonality) was detected in time-series that had at least 5 years of data with at least 40 cases reported per year. We estimated the mean timing of disease activity by computing the centre of gravity of the distribution of cases and investigated whether synchrony exists between the three pathogens responsible for most cases of bacterial meningitis.

Findings

We used country-level data from 66 countries, including from 47 countries outside the meningitis belt in sub-Saharan Africa. A persistent seasonality was detected in 49 (96%) of the 51 time-series from 38 countries eligible for inclusion in the wavelet analyses. The mean timing of disease activity had a latitudinal trend, with bacterial meningitis seasons peaking during the winter months in countries in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The three pathogens shared similar seasonality, but time-shifts differed slightly by country.

Interpretation

Our findings provide key insight into the seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis and add to knowledge about the global epidemiology of meningitis and the host, environment, and pathogen characteristics driving these patterns. Comprehensive understanding of global seasonal trends in meningitis could be used to design more effective prevention and control strategies.

Funding

Princeton University Health Grand Challenge, US National Institutes of Health (NIH), NIH Fogarty International Center Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics programme (RAPIDD), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A spatial and temporal analysis of paediatric central nervous system infections from 2005 to 2015 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Central nervous system infections (CNSI) are a leading cause of death and long-term disability in children. Using ICD-10 data from 2005 to 2015 from three central hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam, we exploited generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) to examine the spatial-temporal distribution and spatial and climatic risk factors of paediatric CNSI, excluding tuberculous meningitis, in this setting. From 2005 to 2015, there were 9469 cases of paediatric CNSI; 33% were ⩽1 year old at admission and were mainly diagnosed with presumed bacterial CNSI (BI) (79%), the remainder were >1 year old and mainly diagnosed with presumed non-bacterial CNSI (non-BI) (59%). The urban districts of HCMC in proximity to the hospitals as well as some outer districts had the highest incidences of BI and non-BI; BI incidence was higher in the dry season. Monthly BI incidence exhibited a significant decreasing trend over the study. Both BI and non-BI were significantly associated with lags in monthly average temperature, rainfall, and river water level. Our findings add new insights into this important group of infections in Vietnam, and highlight where resources for the prevention and control of paediatric CNSI should be allocated.

Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of meningococcal meningitis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Substantial climate changes have led to the emergence and re-emergence of various infectious diseases worldwide, presenting an imperative need to explore the effects of meteorological factors on serious contagious disease incidences such as that of meningococcal meningitis (MCM).

METHODS

The incidences of MCM and meteorology data between 1981 and 2010 were obtained from Chaoyang city. Structure Equation Modeling was used to analyze the relationships between meteorological factors and the incidence of MCM, using the LISREL software.

RESULTS

The SEM results showed that Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) = 0.30, Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) = 0.63, and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.31. Humidity and temperature both had negative correlations with MCM incidence, with factor loads of -0.32 and -0.43, while sunshine was positively correlated with a factor load of 0.42. For specific observable variables, average air pressure, average evaporation, average air temperature, and average ground temperature exerted stronger influence, with item loads between observable variables and MCM incidence being -0.42, 0.34, -0.32, and -0.32 respectively.

CONCLUSION

Public health institutions should pay more attention to the meteorological variables of humidity, sunshine, and temperature in prospective MCM control and prevention.

Towards understanding the epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis in the African meningitis belt: a multi-disciplinary overview

OBJECTIVES

Neisseria meningitidis is the major cause of seasonal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt. In the changing context of a reduction in incidence of serogroup A and an increase in incidence of serogroups W and C and of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a better understanding of the determinants driving the disease transmission dynamics remains crucial to improving bacterial meningitis control.

METHODS

The literature was searched to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the determinants of meningitis transmission dynamics in the African meningitis belt.

RESULTS

Seasonal hyperendemicity is likely predominantly caused by increased invasion rates, sporadic localized epidemics by increased transmission rates, and larger pluri-annual epidemic waves by changing population immunity. Carriage likely involves competition for colonization and cross-immunity. The duration of immunity likely depends on the acquisition type. Major risk factors include dust and low humidity, and presumably human contact rates and co-infections; social studies highlighted environmental and dietary factors, with supernatural explanations.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should focus on implementing multi-country, longitudinal seroprevalence and epidemiological studies, validating immune markers of protection, and improving surveillance, including more systematic molecular characterizations of the bacteria. Integrating climate and social factors into disease control strategies represents a high priority for optimizing the public health response and anticipating the geographic evolution of the African meningitis belt.

Review of meningitis surveillance data, upper West Region, Ghana 2009-2013

Introduction

The Upper West region of Ghana is within the meningitis belt. Analysis of long term surveillance data is necessary for understanding changes in the disease occurrence. We analyzed five years of surveillance data to describe by person, place and time and to determine trends in meningitis.

Methods

Meningitis surveillance data from Ghana Health Service in the Upper West Region, from 2009 to 2013 were reviewed. Data was obtained from District-Health Information Management System and line list from the Disease Control Unit. Population figures (denominators) and rainfall data were also analyzed.

Results

Within the period 980 cases of meningitis were reported in the region, 507(52%) females and 473(48%) males. The mean age of cases was 20.1years and standard deviation 18.8 years with, 77.6 %( 761/980) cases occurring in persons aged under 30 years. Children under five years were 19.3% (190/980). Attack rates ranged from 6.1/100,000 population in the Daffiama-bussei-Issa-district to 47.5/100,000 in Jirapa. Overall case fatality rate of meningitis was 12.2% with 14deaths/100,000 population. Bacterial agents were isolated from 35% (245/702) of CSF. Majority were Streptococcus pneumonia 48.2 % ( 122/258), and N. meningitides Y/W 135 40.3% (102/258). Meningitis was found to be seasonal with peaks in the dry season.

Conclusion

Meningitis in the region is seasonal, and showed a decreasing trend. Jirapa, Lawra, Nadowli and Wa West districts had the highest burden. Control effort of the disease should focus on vaccination against streptococcus pneumonia and N. meningitis W135 especially within crowded settlements such as boarding schools.

Invasive Meningococcal Meningitis Serogroup C Outbreak in Northwest Nigeria, 2015 - Third Consecutive Outbreak of a New Strain

BACKGROUND: In northwest Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, two sequential, localized outbreaks of meningitis were caused by a new strain of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC). In 2015, an outbreak caused by the same novel NmC strain occurred over a wider geographical area, displaying different characteristics to the previous outbreaks. We describe cases treated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in the 2015 outbreak. 

METHODS: From February 10 to June 8, 2015, data on cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) cases and deaths were recorded on standardized line-lists from case management sites supported by MSF. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from suspected cases at the beginning of the outbreak and throughout from suspected cases from new geographical areas were tested using rapid Pastorex® latex agglutination to determine causative serogroup. A subset of CSF samples was also inoculated into Trans-Isolate medium for testing by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Meningococci, Oslo. Reactive vaccination campaigns with meningococcal ACWY polysaccharide vaccine targeted affected administrative wards. 

RESULTS: A total of 6394 (65 confirmed and 6329 probable) cases of CSM including 321 deaths (case fatality rate: 5.0%) were recorded. The cumulative attack rate was 282 cases per 100,000 population in the wards affected. The outbreak lasted 17 weeks, affecting 1039 villages in 21 local government areas in three states (Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger). Pastorex® tests were NmC positive for 65 (58%) of 113 CSF samples. Of 31 Trans-Isolate medium samples, 26 (84%) tested positive for NmC (14 through culture and 12 through PCR); all had the same rare PorA type P1.21-15,16 as isolates from the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. All 14 culture-positive samples yielded isolates of the same genotype (ST-10217 PorA type P1.21-15,16 and FetA type F1-7). More than 222,000 targeted individuals were vaccinated relatively early in the outbreak (administrative coverage estimates 98% and 89% in Kebbi and Sokoto, respectively). 

CONCLUSIONS: The outbreak was the largest caused by NmC documented in Nigeria. Reactive vaccination in both states may have helped curtail the epidemic. A vaccination campaign against NmC with a long-lasting conjugate vaccine should be considered in the region.

Challenges of bacterial meningitis case management in low income settings: an experience from Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the current diagnostic and therapeutic strategies used in the care of patients with suspected bacterial meningitis at teaching hospitals in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This was a hospital-based retrospective study conducted at four teaching hospitals in different regions of Ethiopia. Participants were patients aged 14 years and older treated for suspected bacterial meningitis. Presenting complaints, diagnostic strategies used and treatments given were obtained from clinical records.

RESULT

A total of 425 patients were included in the study; 52.7% were men and 83.8% were younger than 50 years. Fever, headache, neck stiffness and impaired consciousness were the most common clinical presentations; 55.5% underwent lumbar puncture. Overall, only 96 (22.6%) patients had cerebrospinal fluid abnormalities compatible with bacterial meningitis. A causative bacterium was identified in only 14 cases. Ceftriaxone was used as the empiric treatment of choice, either alone or in combination with other antibiotics; 17.6% of patients were also given vancomycin. Adjunctive dexamethasone was given to 50.4%.

CONCLUSION

Most patients treated as bacterial meningitis did not receive a proper diagnostic workup. The choice of antibiotic was not tailored to the specific clinical condition of the patient. Such an approach may result in poor treatment outcomes and lead to antibiotic resistance. Management of patients with suspected bacterial meningitis should be supported by analysis of cerebrospinal fluid, and treatment should be tailored to local evidence and current evidence-based recommendations.

Linkages between observed, modeled Saharan dust loading and meningitis in Senegal during 2012 and 2013

The Sahara desert transports large quantities of dust over the Sahelian region during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring seasons (December-April). In episodic events, high dust concentrations are found at the surface, negatively impacting respiratory health. Bacterial meningitis in particular is known to affect populations that live in the Sahelian zones, which is otherwise known as the meningitis belt. During the winter and spring of 2012, suspected meningitis cases (SMCs) were with three times higher than in 2013. We show higher surface particular matter concentrations at Dakar, Senegal and elevated atmospheric dust loading in Senegal for the period of 1 January-31 May during 2012 relative to 2013. We analyze simulated particulate matter over Senegal from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during 2012 and 2013. The results show higher simulated dust concentrations during the winter season of 2012 for Senegal. The WRF model correctly captures the large dust events from 1 January-31 March but has shown less skill during April and May for simulated dust concentrations. The results also show that the boundary conditions are the key feature for correctly simulating large dust events and initial conditions are less important.

Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt

BACKGROUND

The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1-29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term.

METHODS

We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years' average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac.

Climate, demographic factors and geographical variations in the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease in Italy

We investigated the effect of climatic, demographic factors and intra-country geographical variations on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Italy. For this purpose, incidence rates of IMD cases reported in Italy between 1994 and 2012 were calculated, and a cluster analysis was performed. A geographical gradient was determined, with lower incidence rates in central and southern Italy, compared to the northern parts, where most clusters were observed. IMD rates were higher in medium-sized towns than in villages. Adults were at lower risk of IMD than children aged ⩽4 years. IMD incidence tended to decrease with increasing monthly mean temperatures (incidence rate ratio 0·94, 95% confidence interval 0·90-0·99). In conclusion, geographical variations in IMD incidence were found, where age and temperature were associated with disease occurrence. Whether geographical variations should be considered in national intervention plans is still a matter for discussion.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Air Pollution Index and its timescale-dependent relationship with meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2001-2011

There is an increasing interest in spatial and temporal variation of air pollution and its association with weather conditions. We presented the spatial and temporal variation of Air Pollution Index (API) and examined the associations between API and meteorological factors during 2001-2011 in Guangzhou, China. A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess (STL) was used to decompose API. Wavelet analyses were performed to examine the relationships between API and several meteorological factors. Air quality has improved since 2005. APIs were highly correlated among five monitoring stations, and there were substantial temporal variations. Timescale-dependent relationships were found between API and a variety of meteorological factors. Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed were negatively correlated with API, while diurnal temperature range and atmospheric pressure were positively correlated with API in the annual cycle. Our findings should be taken into account when determining air quality forecasts and pollution control measures.

Soil dust aerosols and wind as predictors of seasonal meningitis incidence in Niger

BACKGROUND

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa during the dry season, a period when the region is affected by the Harmattan, a dry and dusty northeasterly trade wind blowing from the Sahara into the Gulf of Guinea.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the potential of climate-based statistical forecasting models to predict seasonal incidence of meningitis in Niger at both the national and district levels.

DATA AND METHODS

We used time series of meningitis incidence from 1986 through 2006 for 38 districts in Niger. We tested models based on data that would be readily available in an operational framework, such as climate and dust, population, and the incidence of early cases before the onset of the meningitis season in January-May. Incidence was used as a proxy for immunological state, susceptibility, and carriage in the population. We compared a range of negative binomial generalized linear models fitted to the meningitis data.

RESULTS

At the national level, a model using early incidence in December and averaged November-December zonal wind provided the best fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.57), with zonal wind having the greatest impact. A model with surface dust concentration as a predictive variable performed indistinguishably well. At the district level, the best spatiotemporal model included zonal wind, dust concentration, early incidence in December, and population density (pseudo-R2 = 0.41).

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that wind and dust information and incidence in the early dry season predict part of the year-to-year variability of the seasonal incidence of meningitis at both national and district levels in Niger. Models of this form could provide an early-season alert that wind, dust, and other conditions are potentially conducive to an epidemic.

Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010

BACKGROUND

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004-2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November-June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405-0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239-0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078-2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173-2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004-10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated.

Desert dust and human health disorders

Dust storms may originate in many of the world's drylands and have an effect not only on human health in the drylands themselves but also in downwind environments, including some major urban centres, such as Phoenix, Kano, Athens, Madrid, Dubai, Jedda, Tehran, Jaipur, Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo, Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. In some parts of the world dust storms occur frequently throughout the year. They can transport particulate material, pollutants, and potential allergens over thousands of km from source. The main sources include the Sahara, central and eastern Asia, the Middle East, and parts of the western USA. In some parts of the world, though not all, the frequency of dust storms is changing in response to land use and climatic changes, and in such locations the health implications may become more severe. Data on the PM10 and P2.5 loadings of dust events are discussed, as are various pollutants (heavy metals, pesticides, etc.) and biological components (spores, fungi, bacteria, etc.). Particulate loadings can far exceed healthy levels. Among the human health effects of dust storms are respiratory disorders (including asthma, tracheitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis and silicosis) cardiovascular disorders (including stroke), conjunctivitis, skin irritations, meningococcal meningitis, valley fever, diseases associated with toxic algal blooms and mortality and injuries related to transport accidents.