Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Genetic basis of variation in thermal developmental plasticity for Drosophila melanogaster body pigmentation

Seasonal differences in insect pigmentation are attributed to the influence of ambient temperature on pigmentation development. This thermal plasticity is adaptive and heritable, and thereby capable of evolving. However, the specific genes contributing to the variation in plasticity that can drive its evolution remain largely unknown. To address this, we analysed pigmentation and pigmentation plasticity in Drosophila melanogaster. We measured two components of pigmentation in the thorax and abdomen: overall darkness and the proportion of length covered by darker pattern elements (a trident in the thorax and bands in the abdomen) in females from two developmental temperatures (17 or 28°C) and 191 genotypes. Using a GWAS approach to identify the genetic basis of variation in pigmentation and its response to temperature, we identified numerous dispersed QTLs, including some mapping to melanogenesis genes (yellow, ebony, and tan). Remarkably, we observed limited overlap between QTLs for variation within specific temperatures and those influencing thermal plasticity, as well as minimal overlap between plasticity QTLs across pigmentation components and across body parts. For most traits, consistent with selection favouring the retention of plasticity, we found that lower plasticity alleles were often at lower frequencies. The functional analysis of selected candidate QTLs and pigmentation genes largely confirmed their contributions to variation in pigmentation and/or pigmentation plasticity. Overall, our study reveals the existence and underlying basis of extensive and trait-specific genetic variation for pigmentation and pigmentation plasticity, offering a rich reservoir of raw material for natural selection to shape the evolution of these traits independently.

The adaptive role of melanin plasticity in thermally variable environments

Understanding the evolution of adaptive plasticity is fundamental to our knowledge of how organisms interact with their environments and cope with environmental change. Plasticity in melanin pigmentation is common in response to variable environments, especially thermal environments. Yet, the adaptive significance of melanin plasticity in thermally variable environments is often assumed, but rarely explicitly tested. Furthermore, understanding the role of plasticity when a trait is responsive to multiple environmental stimuli and plays many functional roles remains poorly understood. We test the hypothesis that melanin plasticity is an adaptation for thermally variable environments using Hyles lineata, the white-lined sphinx moth, which shows plasticity in melanin pigmentation during the larval stage. Melanin pigmentation influences thermal traits in H. lineata, as melanic individuals had higher heating rates and reached higher body temperatures than non-melanic individuals. Importantly, melanin pigmentation has temperature specific fitness consequences. While melanic individuals had an advantage in cold temperatures, neither phenotype had a clear fitness advantage at warm temperatures. Thus, the costs associated with melanin production may be unrelated to thermal context. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly testing the adaptive role of plasticity and considering all the factors that influence costs and benefits of plastic phenotypes across environments.

Parameterizing mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology: a review of empirical approaches

Mechanistic niche models are computational tools developed using biophysical principles to address grand challenges in ecology and evolution, such as the mechanisms that shape the fundamental niche and the adaptive significance of traits. Here, we review the empirical basis of mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology, which are used to answer a broad array of questions in ecology, evolution and global change biology. We describe the experiments and observations that are frequently used to parameterize these models and how these empirical data are then incorporated into mechanistic niche models to predict performance, growth, survival and reproduction. We focus on the physiological, behavioral and morphological traits that are frequently measured and then integrated into these models. We also review the empirical approaches used to incorporate evolutionary processes, phenotypic plasticity and biotic interactions. We discuss the importance of validation experiments and observations in verifying underlying assumptions and complex processes. Despite the reliance of mechanistic niche models on biophysical theory, empirical data have and will continue to play an essential role in their development and implementation.

Geometric Morphometric Assessment of Toe Shape in Forest and Urban Lizards Following Hurricane Disturbances

Evidence suggests that hurricanes can influence the evolution of organisms, with phenotypic traits involved in adhesion, such as the toepads of arboreal lizards, being particularly susceptible to natural selection imposed by hurricanes. To investigate this idea, we quantified trait variation before and after Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017) in forest and urban populations of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis cristatellus. We found that the hurricanes affected toe morphology differently between forest and urban sites. In particular, toepads of the forefeet were longer and narrower in forest, but wider in urban populations, compared to pre-hurricane measures. Toepads of the hind feet were larger in area following the hurricanes. Fore and rear toes increased in length following the hurricane. There were no changes in the number of lamellae scales or lamellae spacing, but lamellae 6-11 of the forefeet shifted proximally following the hurricane. We also measured clinging performance and toe shape. We found that toepad area and toe lengths were stronger predictors of adhesive forces than toepad shape. Our results highlight an interaction between urbanization and hurricanes, demonstrating the importance to consider how urban species will respond to extreme weather events. Additionally, our different results for fore and rear feet highlight the importance of evaluating both of these traits when measuring the morphological response to hurricanes in arboreal lizards.

A transcriptomic investigation of heat-induced transgenerational plasticity in beetles

In response to environmental stressors, parents can shape the developmental outcomes of their offspring by contributing non-genetic but heritable factors. The transmission of such factors can potentially allow offspring, from the beginning of their lives, to express phenotypes that match their anticipated environments. In this study, I ask whether enhanced growth in larvae of Onthophagus taurus (the bull-headed dung beetle) is modified by parental exposure to heat or by exposure of the offspring to heat during early life. I find that, irrespective of the early environment of the offspring, individuals produced by parents exposed to heat grow larger. Furthermore, taking a transcriptomic approach, I find that ecdysone signalling might mediate the transgenerational effect and that increased insulin signalling or reduced production of heat shock proteins might be responsible for the enhanced growth in larvae derived from parents exposed to heat. Together, my results provide evidence for a thermally induced transgenerational effect and a foundation for functional testing of candidate mechanisms mediating the effect.

Contributions of phenotypic integration, plasticity and genetic adaptation to adaptive capacity relating to drought in Banksia marginata (Proteaceae)

The frequency and intensity of drought events are predicted to increase because of climate change, threatening biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems in many parts of the world. Drought has already led to declines in functionally important tree species, which are documented in dieback events, shifts in species distributions, local extinctions, and compromised ecosystem function. Understanding whether tree species possess the capacity to adapt to future drought conditions is a major conservation challenge. In this study, we assess the capacity of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae) to adapt to water-limited environments. A water-manipulated common garden experiment was used to test for phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation in seedlings sourced from seven provenances of contrasting climate-origins (wet and dry). We found evidence of local adaptation relating to plant growth investment strategies with populations from drier climate-origins showing greater growth in well-watered conditions. The results also revealed that environment drives variation in physiological (stomatal conductance, predawn and midday water potential) and structural traits (wood density, leaf dry matter content). Finally, these results indicate that traits are coordinated to optimize conservation of water under water-limited conditions and that trait coordination (phenotypic integration) does not constrain phenotypic plasticity. Overall, this study provides evidence for adaptive capacity relating to drought conditions in B. marginata, and a basis for predicting the response to climate change in this functionally important plant species.

Testing for genetic assimilation with phylogenetic comparative analysis: Conceptual, methodological, and statistical considerations

Genetic assimilation is a process that leads to reduced phenotypic plasticity during adaptation to novel conditions, a potentially important phenomenon under global environmental change. Null expectations when testing for genetic assimilation, however, are not always clear. For instance, the statistical artifact of regression to the mean could bias us toward detecting genetic assimilation when it has not occurred. Likewise, the specific mechanism underlying plasticity expression may affect null expectations under neutral evolution. We used macroevolutionary numerical simulations to examine both of these important issues and their interaction, varying whether plasticity evolves, the evolutionary mechanism, trait measurement error, and experimental design. We also modified an existing reaction norm correction method to account for phylogenetic nonindependence. We found (1) regression to the mean is pervasive and can generate spurious support for genetic assimilation; (2) experimental design and post hoc correction can minimize this spurious effect; and (3) neutral evolution can produce patterns consistent with genetic assimilation without constraint or selection, depending on the mechanism of plasticity expression. Additionally, we reanalyzed published macroevolutionary data supporting genetic assimilation, and found that support was reduced after proper correction. Considerable caution is thus required whenever investigating genetic assimilation and reaction norm evolution at macroevolutionary scales.

Ingestional Toxicity of Radiation-Dependent Metabolites of the Host Plant for the Pale Grass Blue Butterfly: A Mechanism of Field Effects of Radioactive Pollution in Fukushima

Biological effects of the Fukushima nuclear accident have been reported in various organisms, including the pale grass blue butterfly Zizeeria maha and its host plant Oxalis corniculata. This plant upregulates various secondary metabolites in response to low-dose radiation exposure, which may contribute to the high mortality and abnormality rates of the butterfly in Fukushima. However, this field effect hypothesis has not been experimentally tested. Here, using an artificial diet for larvae, we examined the ingestional toxicity of three radiation-dependent plant metabolites annotated in a previous metabolomic study: lauric acid (a saturated fatty acid), alfuzosin (an adrenergic receptor antagonist), and ikarugamycin (an antibiotic likely from endophytic bacteria). Ingestion of lauric acid or alfuzosin caused a significant decrease in the pupation, eclosion (survival), and normality rates, indicating toxicity of these compounds. Lauric acid made the egg-larval days significantly longer, indicating larval growth retardation. In contrast, ikarugamycin caused a significant increase in the pupation and eclosion rates, probably due to the protection of the diet from fungi and bacteria. These results suggest that at least some of the radiation-dependent plant metabolites, such as lauric acid, contribute to the deleterious effects of radioactive pollution on the butterfly in Fukushima, providing experimental evidence for the field effect hypothesis.

Adaptive significance of flowering time variation across natural seasonal environments in Arabidopsis thaliana

The relevance of flowering time variation and plasticity to climate adaptation requires a comprehensive empirical assessment. We investigated natural selection and the genetic architecture of flowering time in Arabidopsis through field experiments in Europe across multiple sites and seasons. We estimated selection for flowering time, plasticity and canalization. Loci associated with flowering time, plasticity and canalization by genome-wide association studies were tested for a geographic signature of climate adaptation. Selection favored early flowering and increased canalization, except at the northernmost site, but was rarely detected for plasticity. Genome-wide association studies revealed significant associations with flowering traits and supported a substantial polygenic inheritance. Alleles associated with late flowering, including functional FRIGIDA variants, were more common in regions experiencing high annual temperature variation. Flowering time plasticity to fall vs spring and summer environments was associated with GIGANTEA SUPPRESSOR 5, which promotes early flowering under decreasing day length and temperature. The finding that late flowering genotypes and alleles are associated with climate is evidence for past adaptation. Real-time phenotypic selection analysis, however, reveals pervasive contemporary selection for rapid flowering in agricultural settings across most of the species range. The response to this selection may involve genetic shifts in environmental cuing compared to the ancestral state.

Geographic variation and thermal plasticity shape salamander metabolic rates under current and future climates

Predicted changes in global temperature are expected to increase extinction risk for ectotherms, primarily through increased metabolic rates. Higher metabolic rates generate increased maintenance energy costs which are a major component of energy budgets. Organisms often employ plastic or evolutionary (e.g., local adaptation) mechanisms to optimize metabolic rate with respect to their environment. We examined relationships between temperature and standard metabolic rate across four populations of a widespread amphibian species to determine if populations vary in metabolic response and if their metabolic rates are plastic to seasonal thermal cues. Populations from warmer climates lowered metabolic rates when acclimating to summer temperatures as compared to spring temperatures. This may act as an energy saving mechanism during the warmest time of the year. No such plasticity was evident in populations from cooler climates. Both juvenile and adult salamanders exhibited metabolic plasticity. Although some populations responded to historic climate thermal cues, no populations showed plastic metabolic rate responses to future climate temperatures, indicating there are constraints on plastic responses. We postulate that impacts of warming will likely impact the energy budgets of salamanders, potentially affecting key demographic rates, such as individual growth and investment in reproduction.

Life history strategy dictates thermal preferences across the diel cycle and in response to starvation in variable field crickets, Gryllus lineaticeps

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Diel thermal preferences are higher in fully fed long- vs. short-wing crickets

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Starvation decreases thermal preference more in long- vs. short-wing crickets

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Thermal preference differences associated with life history are context dependent

Insects behaviorally thermoregulate across the diel cycle, and their preferred microhabitats change based on current resources available and the thermal performance optima of traits. Specific combinations of traits being prioritized are set by life history strategies, making life history an important intrinsic determinant of thermal preferences. However, we do not know how life history strategies shape plasticity of behavioral thermoregulation, limiting our ability to predict responses to environmental variability. We compared female variable field crickets (Gryllus lineaticeps) that are flight-capable (long-winged) and flightless (short-winged) to test the hypothesis that life history strategy determines plasticity of thermal preferences across the diel cycle and following starvation. Thermal preferences were elevated during the nocturnal activity period, and long-winged crickets preferred warmer temperatures compared to short-winged crickets across the diel cycle when fully fed. However, thermal preferences of starved crickets were reduced compared to fed crickets. The reduction in thermal preferences was greater in long-winged crickets, resulting in similar thermal preferences between starved long- and short-winged individuals and reflecting a more plastic response. Thus, life history does determine plasticity in thermoregulatory behaviors following resource limitations and effects of life history on thermal preferences are context dependent.

Dynamic maximum entropy provides accurate approximation of structured population dynamics

Realistic models of biological processes typically involve interacting components on multiple scales, driven by changing environment and inherent stochasticity. Such models are often analytically and numerically intractable. We revisit a dynamic maximum entropy method that combines a static maximum entropy with a quasi-stationary approximation. This allows us to reduce stochastic non-equilibrium dynamics expressed by the Fokker-Planck equation to a simpler low-dimensional deterministic dynamics, without the need to track microscopic details. Although the method has been previously applied to a few (rather complicated) applications in population genetics, our main goal here is to explain and to better understand how the method works. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method for two widely studied stochastic problems, highlighting its accuracy in capturing important macroscopic quantities even in rapidly changing non-stationary conditions. For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the method recovers the exact dynamics whilst for a stochastic island model with migration from other habitats, the approximation retains high macroscopic accuracy under a wide range of scenarios in a dynamic environment.

Complex processes in biology and physics have much in common. Collective motion of animals can be well described by models of interacting particles and emergent collective behavior can often be characterized as phase transitions of such a model. When the system is settled to a steady state, statistical physics connects random fluctuations of the process with key macroscopic quantities, using the maximum entropy method. It is thus not surprising that this method is in turn useful in understanding biological systems. However, realistic problems such as structured population dynamics, studied in our work, are set in dynamic environments, caused for instance by fluctuations in food supply. Therefore, we use the dynamical maximum entropy approximation, which allows us to reduce the full problem to simpler dynamics, without the need to track microscopic details. We focus on two processes (one in physics, one in biology) in our study: the motion of a charged particle and the dynamics of structured populations, both in a changing environment. We show that the method is extremely accurate even when the environmental changes are very fast, thus providing a powerful tool to study both biological and physical processes in changing environments.

Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.

Phylogeography of a widely distributed plant species reveals cryptic genetic lineages with parallel phenotypic responses to warming and drought conditions

To predict how widely distributed species will perform under future climate change, it is crucial to understand and reveal their underlying phylogenetics. However, detailed information about plant adaptation and its genetic basis and history remains scarce and especially widely distributed species receive little attention despite their putatively high adaptability. To examine the adaptation potential of a widely distributed species, we sampled the model plant Silene vulgaris across Europe. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed the offspring of these populations to a climate change scenario for central Europe and revealed the population structure through whole-genome sequencing. Plants were grown under two temperatures (18°C and 21°C) and three precipitation regimes (65, 75, and 90 mm) to measure their response in biomass and fecundity-related traits. To reveal the population genetic structure, ddRAD sequencing was employed for a whole-genome approach. We found three major genetic clusters in S. vulgaris from Europe: one cluster comprising Southern European populations, one cluster of Western European populations, and another cluster containing central European populations. Population genetic diversity decreased with increasing latitude, and a Mantel test revealed significant correlations between F ST and geographic distances as well as between genetic and environmental distances. Our trait analysis showed that the genetic clusters significantly differed in biomass-related traits and in the days to flowering. However, half of the traits showed parallel response patterns to the experimental climate change scenario. Due to the differentiated but parallel response patterns, we assume that phenotypic plasticity plays an important role for the adaptation of the widely distributed species S. vulgaris and its intraspecific genetic lineages.

Molecular and physiological responses predict acclimation limits in juvenile brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

Understanding the resilience of ectotherms to high temperatures is essential because of the influence of climate change on aquatic ecosystems. The ability of species to acclimate to high temperatures may determine whether populations can persist in their native ranges. We examined physiological and molecular responses of juvenile brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) to six acclimation temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 23 and 25°C) that span the thermal distribution of the species to predict acclimation limits. Brook trout exhibited an upregulation of stress-related mRNA transcripts (heat shock protein 90-beta, heat shock cognate 71 kDa protein, glutathione peroxidase 1) and downregulation of transcription factors and osmoregulation-related transcripts (nuclear protein 1, Na+/K+/2Cl- co-transporter-1-a) at temperatures ≥20°C. We then examined the effects of acclimation temperature on metabolic rate (MR) and physiological parameters in fish exposed to an acute exhaustive exercise and air exposure stress. Fish acclimated to temperatures ≥20°C exhibited elevated plasma cortisol and glucose, and muscle lactate after exposure to the acute stress. Fish exhibited longer MR recovery times at 15 and 20°C compared with the 5 and 10°C groups; however, cortisol levels remained elevated at temperatures ≥20°C after 24 h. Oxygen consumption in fish acclimated to 23°C recovered quickest after exposure to acute stress. Standard MR was highest and factorial aerobic scope was lowest for fish held at temperatures ≥20°C. Our findings demonstrate how molecular and physiological responses predict acclimation limits in a freshwater fish as the brook trout in the present study had a limited ability to acclimate to temperatures beyond 20°C.

Local adaptation in thermal tolerance for a tropical butterfly across ecotone and rainforest habitats

Thermal adaptation to habitat variability can determine species vulnerability to environmental change. For example, physiological tolerance to naturally low thermal variation in tropical forests species may alter their vulnerability to climate change impacts, compared with open habitat species. However, the extent to which habitat-specific differences in tolerance derive from within-generation versus across-generation ecological or evolutionary processes are not well characterized. Here we studied thermal tolerance limits of a Central African butterfly (Bicyclus dorothea) across two habitats in Cameroon: a thermally stable tropical forest and the more variable ecotone between rainforest and savanna. Second generation individuals originating from the ecotone, reared under conditions common to both populations, exhibited higher upper thermal limits (CTmax) than individuals originating from forest (∼3°C greater). Lower thermal limits (CTmin) were also slightly lower for the ecotone populations (∼1°C). Our results are suggestive of local adaptation driving habitat-specific differences in thermal tolerance (especially CTmax) that hold across generations. Such habitat-specific thermal limits may be widespread for tropical ectotherms and could affect species vulnerability to environmental change. However, microclimate and within-generation developmental processes (e.g. plasticity) will mediate these differences, and determining the fitness consequences of thermal variation for ecotone and rainforest species will require continued study of both within-generation and across-generation eco-evolutionary processes.

This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Summary: The thermal tolerance of Bicyclus dorothea is habitat-specific with higher CTmax in ecotone populations compared to their forest counterparts, while CTmin was relatively similar across habitats.

Don't stand so close to me: Microbiota-facilitated enemy release dynamics in introduced Onthophagus taurus dung beetles

Microbial symbionts can influence their hosts in stunningly diverse ways. Emerging research suggests that an underappreciated facet of these relationships is the influence microbes can have on their host's responses to novel, or stressful, environmental conditions. We sought to address these and related questions in populations resulting from the recent introduction and subsequent rapid range expansion of Onthophagus taurus dung beetles. Specifically, we manipulated both microbial communities and rearing temperature to detect signatures of developmental and life history differentiation in response to the local thermal conditions in two populations derived from the southern most (Florida) and northern most (Michigan) extremes of the exotic Eastern U.S. range of O. taurus. We then sought to determine the contributions, if any, of host-associated microbiota to this differentiation. We found that when reared under common garden conditions individuals from Florida and Michigan populations differed significantly in developmental performance measures and life history traits, consistent with population divergence. At the same time, and contrary to our predictions, we failed to find support for the hypothesis that animals perform better if reared at temperatures that match their location of origin and that performance differences may be mediated by host-associated microbiota. Instead, we found that microbiome swapping across host populations improved developmental performance in both populations, consistent with enemy release dynamics. We discuss the implications of our results for our understanding of the rapid spread of exotic O. taurus through the Eastern United States and the significance of symbiosis in host responses to novel environmental conditions more broadly.

Adaptations, life-history traits and ecological mechanisms of parasites to survive extremes and environmental unpredictability in the face of climate change

Climate change is increasing weather unpredictability, causing more intense, frequent and longer extreme events including droughts, precipitation, and both heat and cold waves. The performance of parasites, and host-parasite interactions, under these unpredictable conditions, are directly influenced by the ability of parasites to cope with extremes and their capacity to adapt to the new conditions. Here, we review some of the structural, behavioural, life history and ecological characteristics of parasitic nematodes that allow them to persist and adapt to extreme and changing environmental conditions. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on parasitic nematodes in the Arctic, where temperature extremes are pronounced, climate change is happening most rapidly, and changes in host-parasite interactions are already documented. We discuss how life-history traits, phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation and evolutionary history can influence the short and long term response of parasites to new conditions. A detailed understanding of the complex ecological processes involved in the survival of parasites in extreme and changing conditions is a fundamental step to anticipate the impact of climate change in parasite dynamics.

Adaptation of plasticity to projected maximum temperatures and across climatically defined bioregions

Resilience to environmental stressors due to climate warming is influenced by local adaptations, including plastic responses. The recent literature has focused on genomic signatures of climatic adaptation, but little is known about how plastic capacity may be influenced by biogeographic and evolutionary processes. We investigate phenotypic plasticity as a target of climatic selection, hypothesizing that lineages that evolved in warmer climates will exhibit greater plastic adaptive resilience to upper thermal stress. This was experimentally tested by comparing transcriptomic responses within and among temperate, subtropical, and desert ecotypes of Australian rainbowfish subjected to contemporary and projected summer temperatures. Critical thermal maxima were estimated, and ecological niches delineated using bioclimatic modeling. A comparative phylogenetic expression variance and evolution model was used to assess plastic and evolved changes in gene expression. Although 82% of all expressed genes were found in the three ecotypes, they shared expression patterns in only 5 out of 236 genes that responded to the climate change experiment. A total of 532 genes showed signals of adaptive (i.e., genetic-based) plasticity due to ecotype-specific directional selection, and 23 of those responded to projected summer temperatures. Network analyses demonstrated centrality of these genes in thermal response pathways. The greatest adaptive resilience to upper thermal stress was shown by the subtropical ecotype, followed by the desert and temperate ecotypes. Our findings indicate that vulnerability to climate change will be highly influenced by biogeographic factors, emphasizing the value of integrative assessments of climatic adaptive traits for accurate estimation of population and ecosystem responses.

Temperature as a modulator of sexual selection

A central question in ecology and evolution is to understand why sexual selection varies so much in strength across taxa; it has long been known that ecological factors are crucial to this. Temperature is a particularly salient abiotic ecological factor that modulates a wide range of physiological, morphological and behavioural traits, impacting individuals and populations at a global taxonomic scale. Furthermore, temperature exhibits substantial temporal variation (e.g. daily, seasonally and inter-seasonally), and hence for most species in the wild sexual selection will regularly unfold in a dynamic thermal environment. Unfortunately, studies have so far almost completely neglected the role of temperature as a modulator of sexual selection. Here, we outline the main pathways through which temperature can affect the intensity and form (i.e. mechanisms) of sexual selection, via: (i) direct effects on secondary sexual traits and preferences (i.e. trait variance, opportunity for selection and trait-fitness covariance), and (ii) indirect effects on key mating parameters, sex-specific reproductive costs/benefits, trade-offs, demography and correlated abiotic factors. Building upon this framework, we show that, by focusing exclusively on the first-order effects that environmental temperature has on traits linked with individual fitness and population viability, current global warming studies may be ignoring eco-evolutionary feedbacks mediated by sexual selection. Finally, we tested the general prediction that temperature modulates sexual selection by conducting a meta-analysis of available studies experimentally manipulating temperature and reporting effects on the variance of male/female reproductive success and/or traits under sexual selection. Our results show a clear association between temperature and sexual selection measures in both sexes. In short, we suggest that studying the feedback between temperature and sexual selection processes may be vital to developing a better understanding of variation in the strength of sexual selection in nature, and its consequences for population viability in response to environmental change (e.g. global warming).

Science-based approach to using growth rate to assess coral performance and restoration outcomes

One response to the coral reef crisis has been human intervention to enhance selection on the fittest corals through cultivation. This requires genotypes to be identified for intervention, with a primary basis for this choice being growth: corals that quickly grow on contemporary reefs might be future winners. To test for temporal stability of growth as a predictor of future performance, genotypes of the coral Porites spp. were grown in common gardens in Mo'orea, French Polynesia. Growth was measured every two to four months throughout 2018, and each period was used as a predictor of growth over the subsequent period. Area-normalized growth explained less than 29% of the variance in subsequent growth, but for biomass-normalized growth this increased to 45-60%, and was highest when summer growth was used to predict autumn growth. The capacity of initial growth to predict future performance is dependent on the units of measurement and the time of year in which it is measured. The final choice of traits to quantify performance must be informed through consideration of the species and the normalization that best capture the information inherent in the biological processes mediating variation in traits values.

The lag-time constraint for behavioural plasticity

Environmental instability (i.e. environments changing often) can select fixed phenotypes because of the lag time of plastically adapting to environmental changes, known as the lag-time constraint. Because behaviour can change rapidly (e.g. switching between foraging strategies), the lag-time constraint is not considered important for behavioural plasticity. Instead, it is often argued that responsive behaviour (i.e. behaviour that changes according to the environment) evolves to cope with unstable environments. But proficiently performing certain behaviours may require time for learning, for practising or, in social animals, for the group to adjust to one's behaviour. Conversely, not using certain behaviours for a period of time can reduce their level of performance. Here, using individual-based evolutionary simulations, we show that environmental instability selects for fixed behaviour when the ratio between the rates of increase and reduction in behavioural performance is below a certain threshold; only above this threshold does responsive behaviour evolve in unstable environments. Thus, the lag-time constraint can apply to behaviours that attain high performance either slowly or rapidly, depending on the relative rate with which their performance decreases when not used. We discuss these results in the context of the evolution of reduced behavioural plasticity, as seen in fixed personality differences.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Climate-driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Climate change can shape evolution directly by altering abiotic conditions or indirectly by modifying habitats, yet few studies have investigated the effects of climate-driven habitat change on contemporary evolution. We resampled populations of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) along a latitudinal gradient in California bar-built estuaries to examine their evolution in response to changing climate and habitat. We took advantage of the strong association between stickleback lateral plate phenotypes and Ectodysplasin A (Eda) genotypes to infer changes in allele frequencies over time. Our results show that over time the frequency of low-plated alleles has generally increased and heterozygosity has decreased. Latitudinal patterns in stickleback plate phenotypes suggest that evolution at Eda is a response to climate-driven habitat transformation rather than a direct consequence of climate. As climate change has reduced precipitation and increased temperature and drought, bar-built estuaries have transitioned from lotic (flowing-water) to lentic (still-water) habitats, where the low-plated allele is favoured. The low-plated allele has achieved fixation at the driest, hottest southernmost sites, a trend that is progressing northward with climate change. Climate-driven habitat change is therefore causing a reduction in genetic variation that may hinder future adaptation for populations facing multiple threats.

Genomics of Developmental Plasticity in Animals

Developmental plasticity refers to the property by which the same genotype produces distinct phenotypes depending on the environmental conditions under which development takes place. By allowing organisms to produce phenotypes adjusted to the conditions that adults will experience, developmental plasticity can provide the means to cope with environmental heterogeneity. Developmental plasticity can be adaptive and its evolution can be shaped by natural selection. It has also been suggested that developmental plasticity can facilitate adaptation and promote diversification. Here, we summarize current knowledge on the evolution of plasticity and on the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution, and we identify recent advances and important open questions about the genomics of developmental plasticity in animals. We give special attention to studies using transcriptomics to identify genes whose expression changes across developmental environments and studies using genetic mapping to identify loci that contribute to variation in plasticity and can fuel its evolution.

Adjusting to climate: Acclimation, adaptation and developmental plasticity in physiological traits of a tropical rainforest lizard

The impact of climate change may be felt most keenly by tropical ectotherms. In these taxa, it is argued, thermal specialization means a given shift in temperature will have a larger effect on fitness. For species with limited dispersal ability, the impact of climate change depends on the capacity for their climate-relevant traits to shift. Such shifts can occur through genetic adaptation, various forms of plasticity, or a combination of these processes. Here we assess the extent and causes of shifts in 7 physiological traits in a tropical lizard, the rainforest sunskink (Lampropholis coggeri). Two populations were sampled that differ from each other in both climate and physiological traits. We compared trait values in each animal soon after field collection versus following acclimation to laboratory conditions. We also compared trait values between populations in: (i) recently field-collected animals; (ii) the same animals following laboratory acclimation; and (iii) the laboratory-reared offspring of these animals. Our results reveal high trait lability, driven primarily by acclimation and local adaptation. By contrast, developmental plasticity, resulting from incubation temperature, had little to no effect on most traits. These results suggest that, while specialized, tropical ectotherms may be capable of rapid shifts in climate-relevant traits.

Effects of photoperiod on life-history and thermal stress resistance traits across populations of Drosophila subobscura

INTRODUCTION

Organisms use environmental cues to match their phenotype with the future availability of resources and environmental conditions. Changes in the magnitude and frequency of environmental cues such as photoperiod and temperature along latitudes can be used by organisms to predict seasonal changes. While the role of temperature variation on the induction of plastic and seasonal responses is well established, the importance of photoperiod for predicting seasonal changes is less explored.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Here we studied changes in life-history and thermal stress resistance traits in Drosophila subobscura in response to variation in photoperiod (6:18, 12:12 and 18:6 light:dark cycles) mimicking seasonal variations in day length. The populations of D. subobscura were collected from five locations along a latitudinal gradient (from North Africa and Europe). These populations were exposed to different photoperiods for two generations, whereafter egg-to-adult viability, productivity, dry body weight, thermal tolerance, and starvation resistance were assessed.

RESULTS

We found strong effects of photoperiod, origin of populations, and their interactions on life-history and stress resistance traits. Thermal resistance varied between the populations and the effect of photoperiod depended on the trait and the method applied for the assessment of thermal resistance.

PERSPECTIVES

Our results show a strong effect of the origin of population and photoperiod on a range of fitness-related traits and provide evidence for local adaptation to environmental cues (photoperiod by population interaction). The findings emphasize an important and often neglected role of photoperiod in studies on thermal resistance and suggest that cues induced by photoperiod may provide some buffer enabling populations to cope with a more variable and unpredictable future climate.

Temperature shapes the costs, benefits and geographic diversification of sexual coloration in a dragonfly

The environment shapes the evolution of secondary sexual traits by determining how their costs and benefits vary across the landscape. Given the thermal properties of dark coloration generally, temperature should crucially influence the costs, benefits and geographic diversification of many secondary sexual colour patterns. We tested this hypothesis using sexually selected wing coloration in a dragonfly. We find that greater wing coloration heats males - the magnitude of which improves flight performance under cool conditions but dramatically reduces it under warm conditions. In a colder region of the species' range, behavioural observations of a wild population show that these thermal effects translate into greater territorial acquisition on thermally variable days. Finally, geo-referenced photographs taken by citizen scientists reveal that this sexually selected wing coloration is dramatically reduced in the hottest portions of the species' range. Collectively, our results underscore temperature's capacity to promote and constrain the evolution of sexual coloration.

Rapid microevolution during recent range expansion to harsh environments

BACKGROUND

Adaptive evolution is one of the crucial mechanisms for organisms to survive and thrive in new environments. Recent studies suggest that adaptive evolution could rapidly occur in species to respond to novel environments or environmental challenges during range expansion. However, for environmental adaptation, many studies successfully detected phenotypic features associated with local environments, but did not provide ample genetic evidence on microevolutionary dynamics. It is therefore crucial to thoroughly investigate the genetic basis of rapid microevolution in response to environmental changes, in particular on what genes and associated variation are responsible for environmental challenges. Here, we genotyped genome-wide gene-associated microsatellites to detect genetic signatures of rapid microevolution of a marine tunicate invader, Ciona robusta, during recent range expansion to the harsh environment in the Red Sea.

RESULTS

The Red Sea population was significantly differentiated from the other global populations. The genome-wide scan, as well as multiple analytical methods, successfully identified a set of adaptive genes. Interestingly, the allele frequency largely varied at several adaptive loci in the Red Sea population, and we found significant correlations between allele frequency and local environmental factors at these adaptive loci. Furthermore, a set of genes were annotated to get involved in local temperature and salinity adaptation, and the identified adaptive genes may largely contribute to the invasion success to harsh environments.

CONCLUSIONS

All the evidence obtained in this study clearly showed that environment-driven selection had left detectable signatures in the genome of Ciona robusta within a few generations. Such a rapid microevolutionary process is largely responsible for the harsh environmental adaptation and therefore contributes to invasion success in different aquatic ecosystems with largely varied environmental factors.

Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change

Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

The role of tolerance variation in vulnerability forecasting of insects

Quantifying the amount of climatic change organisms can withstand before exceeding their physiological tolerance is a cornerstone of vulnerability forecasting. Yet most work in this area treats tolerance as a fixed trait. We review recent work that quantifies variation in high temperature tolerance across bioclimatic gradients, and we explore the implications for vulnerability to climate change. For some sources of variation, including differences in the evolutionary potential of heat tolerance across latitude, the typical biogeographic pattern of high vulnerability in the tropics is exacerbated. For other sources of variation, including certain types of plastic variation in heat tolerance, the biogeographic pattern of high tropical vulnerability is diminished. As a consequence, thermal tolerance variation should not be ignored in vulnerability forecasting.

How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies?

Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at high elevation, but decrease mean fitness in the summer generations at low elevation. Phenological shifts reduce the interannual variation in directional selection and morphology, but do not have consistent effects on variation in mean fitness. Morphological plasticity and its evolution can substantially increase population fitness and adaptation to climate change at low elevations, but environmental unpredictability limits adaptive plastic and evolutionary responses at high elevations. Phenological shifts also decrease the relative fitness advantages of morphological plasticity and evolution. Our results illustrate how the potential contributions of phenological and morphological plasticity and of evolution to climate change adaptation can vary along environmental gradients and how environmental variability will limit adaptive responses to climate change in montane regions.

Understanding Evolutionary Impacts of Seasonality: An Introduction to the Symposium

Seasonality is a critically important aspect of environmental variability, and strongly shapes all aspects of life for organisms living in highly seasonal environments. Seasonality has played a key role in generating biodiversity, and has driven the evolution of extreme physiological adaptations and behaviors such as migration and hibernation. Fluctuating selection pressures on survival and fecundity between summer and winter provide a complex selective landscape, which can be met by a combination of three outcomes of adaptive evolution: genetic polymorphism, phenotypic plasticity, and bet-hedging. Here, we have identified four important research questions with the goal of advancing our understanding of evolutionary impacts of seasonality. First, we ask how characteristics of environments and species will determine which adaptive response occurs. Relevant characteristics include costs and limits of plasticity, predictability, and reliability of cues, and grain of environmental variation relative to generation time. A second important question is how phenological shifts will amplify or ameliorate selection on physiological hardiness. Shifts in phenology can preserve the thermal niche despite shifts in climate, but may fail to completely conserve the niche or may even expose life stages to conditions that cause mortality. Considering distinct environmental sensitivities of life history stages will be key to refining models that forecast susceptibility to climate change. Third, we must identify critical physiological phenotypes that underlie seasonal adaptation and work toward understanding the genetic architectures of these responses. These architectures are key for predicting evolutionary responses. Pleiotropic genes that regulate multiple responses to changing seasons may facilitate coordination among functionally related traits, or conversely may constrain the expression of optimal phenotypes. Finally, we must advance our understanding of how changes in seasonal fluctuations are impacting ecological interaction networks. We should move beyond simple dyadic interactions, such as predator prey dynamics, and understand how these interactions scale up to affect ecological interaction networks. As global climate change alters many aspects of seasonal variability, including extreme events and changes in mean conditions, organisms must respond appropriately or go extinct. The outcome of adaptation to seasonality will determine responses to climate change.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.