The fate of assimilated carbon during drought: impacts on respiration in Amazon rainforests

Carbon dioxide fertilization enhanced carbon sink offset by climate change and land use in Amazonia on a centennial scale

The Amazon, the Earth's largest tropical forest, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, acting as a significant carbon sink. Recent studies, however, indicate a decline in its carbon sequestration capacity due to climate variability, intensive deforestation, and fires. This study aims to examine the impacts of these factors on the carbon dynamics of the Amazon over a centennial scale based on dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) of Trendy-v11. It was found that the Amazon region exhibited significant spatiotemporal variations in net land carbon (C) fluxes, and was a net C sink (40.02 ± 242.64 Tg C yr-1) during 1901-2021. The Amazonian net biome productivity (NBP) showed a 6-decades-scale shift from a decreasing trend (-3.78 Tg C yr-2) during 1901-1959 to an increasing trend (2.39 Tg C yr-2) during 1960-2021. The Amazonian NBP was negatively related to air temperature while positively related to dry-season precipitation during 1901-2021. Furthermore, the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration during 1901-2020 enhanced Amazonian NBP by 36.40 ± 8.39 Pg C, which was largely offset by land use change (-18.84 ± 12.02 Pg C) and climate change (-10.03 ± 5.00 Pg C). Our findings underscore the critical need for sustainable management practices in the Amazon to enhance its C sink and preserve its function in the global climate system.

Can changes in land use in a semi-arid region of Brazil cause seasonal variation in energy partitioning and evapotranspiration?

Changes to forests due to deforestation, or their replacement by agricultural areas, alter evapotranspiration and the partitioning of available energy. This study investigated seasonal variations in the energy balance and evapotranspiration in landscapes under different levels of anthropogenic intervention in the semi-arid region of Brazil. Micrometeorological data was obtained from September 2020 to October 2022 for three areas of the semi-arid region: preserved Caatinga (CAA, native vegetation), Caatinga under regeneration (REGE) and a deforested area (DEFA). Here, we use the Bowen ratio energy balance method. Measurements were taken of global solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, vapour pressure deficit, rainfall, net radiation, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, soil heat flux, evapotranspiration, volumetric soil water content and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Sensible heat flux was the dominant flux in both areas with 66% for preserved Caatinga vegetation, 63% for Caatinga under regeneration and 62% deforested area. The latent heat flux was equivalent to 28% of the net radiation for preserved Caatinga vegetation, Caatinga under regeneration and deforested area. The evapotranspiration in turn responded as a function of water availability, being higher during the rainy seasons, with average values of 1.82 mm day-1 for preserved Caatinga vegetation, 2.26 mm day-1 for Caatinga under regeneration and 1.25 mm day-1 for deforested area. The Bowen ratio presented values > 1 in deforested area, preserved Caatinga vegetation and Caatinga under regeneration. Thus, it can be concluded that the change in land use alters the energy balance components, promoting reductions in available energy and latent and sensible heat fluxes during the rainy-dry transition in the deforested area. In addition, the seasonality of energy fluxes depends on water availability in the environment.

Ecohydrological investigation of cloud seeding effect on vegetation activity in the Boryeong Dam Basin, South Korea

Cloud seeding is well known to address water shortage problems caused by droughts by adding more precipitation and consequent runoff. Unlike previous studies, this study investigates another positive effect of cloud seeding on the activation of vegetation by integrating numerical cloud seeding simulations and processed-based modeling of various ecohydrological components. As the carbon cycle is closely related to the hydrological processes in ecosystems, we adopt the RHESSys ecohydrological modeling to synthetically simulate runoff and soil moisture along with primary productivity and vegetation respiration. Numerical simulations with and without cloud seeding are generated by the WRF-ARW model for the Boryeong Dam basin, one of the basins vulnerable to droughts, in 2021. The cloud seeding simulations of two cases are input into the RHESSys model to examine changes in hydrological and ecological components due to the added amount of precipitation. The results exhibit significant increases in annual precipitation (18 %) and runoff (22 %), and enhanced soil moisture stimulating the ecological components such as GPP and NPP, especially in spring. Cloud seeding can be considered to create optimal conditions for vegetation to absorb or sequester carbon from the atmosphere, thereby boosting vegetation growth. Additionally, the time-lagged correlations between cloud seeding and soil moisture, GPP, NPP, and respiration suggest that vegetation activity is highly dependent on antecedent 1-2 months occurrences of cloud seeding. This study implies that the cloud seeding effect on additional NPP can be considered as a countermeasure of the global average forest loss, which means that carbon emission rise in the global warming era can be partly alleviated by cloud seeding.

Experimental warming and drying increase older carbon contributions to soil respiration in lowland tropical forests

Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink, but climate change threatens to alter the carbon balance of these ecosystems. We show that warming and drying of tropical forest soils may increase soil carbon vulnerability, by increasing degradation of older carbon. In situ whole-profile heating by 4 °C and 50% throughfall exclusion each increased the average radiocarbon age of soil CO2 efflux by ~2-3 years, but the mechanisms underlying this shift differed. Warming accelerated decomposition of older carbon as increased CO2 emissions depleted newer carbon. Drying suppressed decomposition of newer carbon inputs and decreased soil CO2 emissions, thereby increasing contributions of older carbon to CO2 efflux. These findings imply that both warming and drying, by accelerating the loss of older soil carbon or reducing the incorporation of fresh carbon inputs, will exacerbate soil carbon losses and negatively impact carbon storage in tropical forests under climate change.

Methodological advancement in deriving primary productivity and ecosystem respiration fluxes across different biomes

In this paper, we introduce a methodology that can improve the estimations of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and ecosystem Respiration (Reco) processes at a regional scale. This method is based on a satellite data-driven approach which is suitable for regions like India where there exists a serious shortage of ground-based observations of biospheric carbon fluxes (e.g., Eddy Covariance (EC) flux measurements). We relied on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance for capturing vegetation dynamics in the Light-Use Efficiency (LUE)-based vegetation model. Further, we utilised recently available satellite-based Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) and other variables such as Soil Moisture (SM) and Soil Temperature (ST) to refine the predictions of GPP and Reco. The methodology involves establishing a relationship between SIF and GPP for different vegetation classes over India. The SIF-GPP relationship established across the biomes was then used to correct the GPP fluxes simulated by the LUE-based model. Similarly, the ecosystem respiration estimations by the model have undergone refinement by incorporating ST and SM information. This innovative method shows remarkable potential to improve biospheric CO2 uptake and release, especially for in situ data-constrained regions like India. • SIF-based information is introduced to a light-use efficiency-based vegetation model. • SIF-GPP relationship is established for major biomes across India. • SM and ST information is incorporated into the Reco simulations in the model.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation forcing on carbon and water cycling in a Bornean tropical rainforest

Carbon dioxide and water vapor exchanges between tropical forest canopies and the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration, and evapotranspiration (ET) influence carbon and water cycling at the regional and global scales. Their inter- and intra-annual variations are sensitive to seasonal rhythms and longer-timescale tropical climatic events. In the present study, we assessed the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on ET and on the net ecosystem exchange (NEE), using eddy-covariance flux observations in a Bornean rainforest over a 10-y period (2010-2019) that included several El Niño and La Niña events. From flux model inversions, we inferred ecophysiological properties, notably the canopy stomatal conductance and "big-leaf" maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax25_BL). Mean ET values were similar between ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions). Conversely, the mean net ecosystem productivity was highest during La Niña events and lowest during El Niño events. Combining Shapley additive explanation calculations for nine controlling factors with a machine-learning algorithm, we determined that the primary factors for ET and NEE in the La Niña and neutral phases were incoming shortwave solar radiation and Vcmax25_BL, respectively, but that canopy stomatal conductance was the most significant factor for both ET and NEE in the El Niño phase. A combined stomatal-photosynthesis model approach further indicated that Vcmax25_BL differences between ENSO phases were the most significant controlling factor for canopy photosynthesis, emphasizing the strong need to account for ENSO-induced ecophysiological factor variations in model projections of the long-term carbon balance in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests.

Drought and warming alter gross primary production allocation and reduce productivity in a widespread pasture grass

Carbon allocation determines plant growth, fitness and reproductive success. However, climate warming and drought impacts on carbon allocation patterns in grasses are not well known, particularly following grazing or clipping. A widespread C₃ pasture grass, Festuca arundinacea, was grown at 26 and 30°C in controlled environment chambers and subjected to drought (65% reduction relative to well-watered controls). Leaf, root and whole-plant carbon fluxes were measured and linked to growth before and after clipping. Both drought and warming reduced gross primary production and plant biomass. Drought reduced net leaf photosynthesis but increased the leaf respiratory fraction of assimilated carbon. Warming increased root respiration but did not affect either net leaf photosynthesis or leaf respiration. There was no evidence of thermal acclimation. Moreover, root respiratory carbon loss was amplified in the combined drought and warming treatment and, in addition to a negative carbon balance aboveground, explained an enhanced reduction in plant biomass. Plant regrowth following clipping was strongly suppressed by drought, reflecting increased tiller mortality and exacerbated respiratory carbon loss. These findings emphasize the importance of considering carbon allocation patterns in response to grazing or clipping and interactions with climatic factors for sustainable pasture production in a future climate.

The Effects of Drought and Re-Watering on Non-Structural Carbohydrates of Pinus tabulaeformis Seedlings

Simple Summary

Drought is one of the main drivers resulting in carbon imbalance in terrestrial ecosystems and the mortality of plants. How plants can survive under drought stress is becoming a major focus of interest. Non-structural carbohydrates include sugars and starch that are essential to plant metabolism and their roles in drought stress are thought to be critically important. Our study examined the allocation strategies of non-structural carbohydrates for three-year-old Pinus tabulaeformis (Chinese pine) seedlings under drought and subsequent re-watering conditions. Our results indicated that P. tabulaeformis seedlings showed strong drought resistance by investing limited non-structural carbohydrates to roots and depleting the starch storage in each organ (leaf, twig, stem, and root) to fuel the needs of plant metabolism and osmotic adjustment. Starch storage was first reconstructed after the drought stress was released. Our findings not only prove the important role of non-structural carbohydrates, especially starch storage, in the survival of P. tabulaeformis seedlings under drought condition, but also complement the limited studies on allocation strategies of non-structural carbohydrate after the drought stress is released, and broaden our understanding of the physiological mechanisms of plants in response to drought stress.

Abstract

Intense and frequent drought events strongly affect plant survival. Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are important “buffers” to maintain plant functions under drought conditions. We conducted a drought manipulation experiment using three-year-old Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. seedlings. The seedlings were first treated under different drought intensities (i.e., no irrigation, severe, and moderate) for 50 days, and then they were re-watered for 25 days to explore the dynamics of NSCs in the leaves, twigs, stems, and roots. The results showed that the no irrigation and severe drought treatments significantly reduced photosynthetic rate by 93.9% and 32.6% for 30 days, respectively, leading to the depletion of the starch storage for hydraulic repair, osmotic adjustment, and plant metabolism. The seedlings under moderate drought condition also exhibited starch storage consumption in leaves and twigs. After re-watering, the reduced photosynthetic rate recovered to the control level within five days in the severe drought group but showed no sign of recovery in the no irrigation group. The seedlings under the severe and moderate drought conditions tended to invest newly fixed C to starch storage and hydraulic repair instead of growth due to the “drought legacy effect”. Our findings suggest the depletion and recovery of starch storage are important strategies for P. tabulaeformis seedlings, and they may play key roles in plant resistance and resilience under environmental stress.

Assessment of SITE for CO2 and Energy Fluxes Simulations in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (Caatinga Ecosystem)

Although seasonally dry tropical forests are considered invaluable to a greater understanding of global carbon fluxes, they remain as one of the ecosystems with the fewest observations. In this context, ecological and ecosystem models can be used as alternative methods to answer questions related to the interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere in dry forests. The objective of this study was to calibrate the simple tropical ecosystem model (SITE) and evaluate its performance in characterizing the annual and seasonal behavior of the energy and carbon fluxes in a preserved fragment of the Caatinga biome. The SITE model exhibited reasonable applicability to simulate variations in CO2 and energy fluxes (r > 0.7). Results showed that the calibrated set of vegetation parameters adequately simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). The SITE model was also able to accurately retrieve the time at which daily GPP and NEE peaked. The model was able to simulate the partition of the available energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes and soil heat flux when the calibrated parameters were used. Therefore, changes in the dynamics of dry forests should be taken into consideration in the modeling of ecosystem carbon balances.

Net Primary Productivity Loss under different drought levels in different grassland ecosystems

Drought is one of the most prominent natural threats to grassland productivity, although the magnitude of this threat is uncertain due to the different drought-levels. However, drought-productivity dynamics has not yet received much attention. It is necessary to establish the method to evaluate quantitatively the effect of different drought-levels on grassland productivity. To better understand the impact of different drought-levels on productivity dynamics, an assessment method to assess the quantitative effects of different drought-levels on grassland productivity was proposed based-on long-term observation data, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Biome-BGC process model. Based-on assessment indicator of net primary productivity (NPP), NPP loss caused by moderate, severe and extreme drought was dramatically different in grasslands with a significant exponential change with gradient of different drought-levels. Furthermore, NPP loss variation in different grassland types under the same drought level was significantly different. Besides, the effect of drought on NPP gradually decreased by an exponential relationship in desert, typical and meadow steppe. However, the percentage of NPP loss in desert, typical and meadow steppe reduced by 20.5%, 13.1% and 17.5% with U-shaped, respectively. Meanwhile, our results can offer scientific basis to improve assessment impact of extreme climate events used by ecosystem model and data, and cope with carbon cycling management and climate change.

Concurrent and Lagged Effects of Extreme Drought Induce Net Reduction in Vegetation Carbon Uptake on Tibetan Plateau

Climatic extremes have adverse concurrent and lagged effects on terrestrial carbon cycles. Here, a concurrent effect refers to the occurrence of a latent impact during climate extremes, and a lagged effect appears sometime thereafter. Nevertheless, the uncertainties of these extreme drought effects on net carbon uptake and the recovery processes of vegetation in different Tibetan Plateau (TP) ecosystems are poorly understood. In this study, we calculated the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on meteorological datasets with an improved spatial resolution, and we adopted the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model to develop a net primary production (NPP) dataset based on multiple datasets across the TP during 1982–2015. On this basis, we quantised the net reduction in vegetation carbon uptake (NRVCU) on the TP, investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the NPP, NRVCU and SPEI, and analysed the NRVCUs that are caused by the concurrent and lagged effects of extreme drought and the recovery times in different ecosystems. According to our results, the Qaidam Basin and most forest regions possessed a significant trend towards drought during 1982–2015 (with Slope of SPEI < 0, P < 0.05), and the highest frequency of extreme drought events was principally distributed in the Qaidam Basin, with three to six events. The annual total net reduction in vegetation carbon uptake on the TP experienced a significant downward trend from 1982 to 2015 (−0.0018 ± 0.0002 PgC year−1, P < 0.001), which was negatively correlated with annual total precipitation and annual mean temperature (P < 0.05). In spatial scale, the NRVCU decrement was widely spread (approximately 55% of grids) with 17.86% of the area displaying significant declining trends (P < 0.05), and the sharpest declining trend (Slope ≤ −2) was mainly concentrated in southeastern TP. For the alpine steppe and alpine meadow ecosystems, the concurrent and lagged effects of extreme drought induced a significant difference in NRVCU (P < 0.05), while forests presented the opposite results. The recovery time comparisons from extreme drought suggest that forests require more time (27.62% of grids ≥ 6 years) to recover their net carbon uptakes compared to grasslands. Therefore, our results emphasise that extreme drought events have stronger lagged effects on forests than on grasslands on the TP. The improved resilience of forests in coping with extreme drought should also be considered in future research.

Fine-root dynamics vary with soil depth and precipitation in a low-nutrient tropical forest in the Central Amazonia

A common assumption in tropical ecology is that root systems respond rapidly to climatic cues but that most of that response is limited to the uppermost layer of the soil, with relatively limited changes in deeper layers. However, this assumption has not been tested directly, preventing models from accurately predicting the response of tropical forests to environmental change.We measured seasonal dynamics of fine roots in an upper-slope plateau in Central Amazonia mature forest using minirhizotrons to 90 cm depth, which were calibrated with fine roots extracted from soil cores.Root productivity and mortality in surface soil layers were positively correlated with precipitation, whereas root standing length was greater during the dry periods at the deeper layers. Contrary to historical assumptions, a large fraction of fine-root standing biomass (46%) and productivity (41%) was found in soil layers deeper than 30 cm. Furthermore, root turnover decreased linearly with soil depth.Our findings demonstrate a relationship between fine-root dynamics and precipitation regimes in Central Amazonia. Our results also emphasize the importance of deeper roots for accurate estimates of primary productivity and the interaction between roots and carbon, water, and nutrients.

Exploring the Sensitivity of Subtropical Stand Aboveground Productivity to Local and Regional Climate Signals in South China

Subtropical forest productivity is significantly affected by both natural disturbances (local and regional climate changes) and anthropogenic activities (harvesting and planting). Monthly measures of forest aboveground productivity from natural forests (primary and secondary forests) and plantations (mixed and single-species forests) were developed to explore the sensitivity of subtropical mountain productivity to the fluctuating characteristics of climate change in South China, spanning the 35-year period from 1981 to 2015. Statistical analysis showed that climate regulation differed across different forest types. The monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were positively correlated with primary and mixed-forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components: Wood productivity (WP) and canopy productivity (CP). However, the monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were negatively correlated with secondary and single-species forest ANPP and its components. The number of dry days and minimum temperature were positively associated with secondary and single-species forest productivity, but inversely associated with primary and mixed forest productivity. The multivariate ENSO (EI Niño-Southern Oscillation) index (MEI), computed based on sea level pressure, surface temperature, surface air temperature, and cloudiness over the tropical Pacific Ocean, was significantly correlated with local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), precipitation (PRE), streamflow (FLO), and the number of dry days (DD), as well as the monthly means of primary and mixed forest aboveground productivity. In particular, the mean maximum temperature increased by 2.5, 0.9, 6.5, and 0.9 °C, and the total forest aboveground productivity decreased by an average of 5.7%, 3.0%, 2.4%, and 7.8% in response to the increased extreme high temperatures and drought events during the 1986/1988, 1997/1998, 2006/2007, and 2009/2010 EI Niño periods, respectively. Subsequently, the total aboveground productivity values increased by an average of 1.1%, 3.0%, 0.3%, and 8.6% because of lagged effects after the wet La Niña periods. The main conclusions of this study demonstrated that the influence of local and regional climatic fluctuations on subtropical forest productivity significantly differed across different forests, and community position and plant diversity differences among different forest types may prevent the uniform response of subtropical mountain aboveground productivity to regional climate anomalies. Therefore, these findings may be useful for forecasting climate-induced variation in forest aboveground productivity as well as for selecting tree species for planting in reforestation practices.

Changes in Sensitivity of Tree-Ring Widths to Climate in a Tropical Moist Forest Tree in Bangladesh

Tree growth in the tropics is strongly influenced by climate. However, reported tree growth responses to climate are largely inconsistent, varying with geographic location, forest type, and tree species. It is thus important to study the growth responses of tropical trees in sites and species that are under-represented so far. Bangladesh, a country influenced by the Asian monsoon climate, is understudied in terms of tree growth response to climate. In the present study, we developed a 121-year-long regional ring-width index chronology of Chukrasia tabularis A. Juss. sampled in two moist forest sites in Bangladesh to investigate tree growth responses to climate in monsoon South Asia. Standard dendrochronological methods were used to produce the ring-width chronologies. The climate sensitivity of C. tabularis was assessed through bootstrap correlation analysis and the stationarity and consistency of climate–growth relationships was evaluated using moving correlation functions and comparing the regression slopes of two sub-periods (1950–1985 and 1986–2015). Tree growth was negatively correlated with the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures, particularly during the early growing season (March). Likewise, precipitation negatively influenced tree growth in the later growing season (October). Besides, radial growth of Chukrasia sharply ceased in years following strong and moderate El Niño events. In parallel with a significant positive trend in local temperatures, tree growth sensitivity to early growing season (March–April) mean temperatures and July minimum temperatures increased in recent decades. Tree growth sensitivity to October precipitation and April vapor pressure deficit also increased. Overall, climate–growth relationships were stronger during the period 1986–2015 than during 1950–1985. Changes in climate sensitivity might be linked to a warming trend that induced an increase in the dry season length during recent decades. With a further predicted temperature increase at our study sites, our results suggest that radial growth of C. tabularis will further decline in response to climate warming.

ENSO Drives interannual variation of forest woody growth across the tropics

Meteorological extreme events such as El Niño events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPP_stem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr^-1, with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr^-1 between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Niño events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Niño-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Niño 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Drought stress and tree size determine stem CO2 efflux in a tropical forest

CO₂ efflux from stems (CO_{2_stem} ) accounts for a substantial fraction of tropical forest gross primary productivity, but the climate sensitivity of this flux remains poorly understood. We present a study of tropical forest CO_{2_stem} from 215 trees across wet and dry seasons, at the world's longest running tropical forest drought experiment site. We show a 27% increase in wet season CO_{2_stem} in the droughted forest relative to a control forest. This was driven by increasing CO_{2_stem} in trees 10-40 cm diameter. Furthermore, we show that drought increases the proportion of maintenance to growth respiration in trees > 20 cm diameter, including large increases in maintenance respiration in the largest droughted trees, > 40 cm diameter. However, we found no clear taxonomic influence on CO_{2_stem} and were unable to accurately predict how drought sensitivity altered ecosystem scale CO_{2_stem} , due to substantial uncertainty introduced by contrasting methods previously employed to scale CO_{2_stem} fluxes. Our findings indicate that under future scenarios of elevated drought, increases in CO_{2_stem} may augment carbon losses, weakening or potentially reversing the tropical forest carbon sink. However, due to substantial uncertainties in scaling CO_{2_stem} fluxes, stand-scale future estimates of changes in stem CO₂ emissions remain highly uncertain.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Experimental throughfall reduction barely affects soil carbon dynamics in a warm-temperate oak forest, central China

Changing precipitation patterns could affect soil carbon (C) cycling in China’s forests. A throughfall reduction (TFR) experiment was conducted in a warm-temperate oak forest in central China to examine effects of reduced precipitation on total soil respiration (SR), heterotrophic soil respiration (HR), autotrophic soil respiration (AR), soil microbial biomass, and fine root biomass from 2013 to 2016. Rain-out shelters, excluding ~50% of throughfall, were applied between May and September, thereby simulating a ~30% reduction in annual precipitation. Although soil moisture was significantly reduced during TFR, microbial biomass and HR remained unaffected. SR, AR, as well as fine root biomass increased during TFR in a comparable dry year, but remained unaffected during all other years. Annual rates of SR, HR, and AR were all unaffected by TFR. Our results indicate that a mild, steady, reduction in growing season precipitation does not affect soil organic matter decomposition in the oak forest ecosystem studied. Low SR rates during a natural dry-spell indicate that SR can be significantly decreased under more severe drought than imposed by the TFR treatment. Our data suggest a low soil moisture threshold of about 10 vol% for SR in the studied soil.

Scaling leaf respiration with nitrogen and phosphorus in tropical forests across two continents

Leaf dark respiration (Rdark ) represents an important component controlling the carbon balance in tropical forests. Here, we test how nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) affect Rdark and its relationship with photosynthesis using three widely separated tropical forests which differ in soil fertility. Rdark was measured on 431 rainforest canopy trees, from 182 species, in French Guiana, Peru and Australia. The variation in Rdark was examined in relation to leaf N and P content, leaf structure and maximum photosynthetic rates at ambient and saturating atmospheric CO2 concentration. We found that the site with the lowest fertility (French Guiana) exhibited greater rates of Rdark per unit leaf N, P and photosynthesis. The data from Australia, for which there were no phylogenetic overlaps with the samples from the South American sites, yielded the most distinct relationships of Rdark with the measured leaf traits. Our data indicate that no single universal scaling relationship accounts for variation in Rdark across this large biogeographical space. Variability between sites in the absolute rates of Rdark and the Rdark  : photosynthesis ratio were driven by variations in N- and P-use efficiency, which were related to both taxonomic and environmental variability.

Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models

The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO ₂, and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO ₂ influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP-DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4-CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO ₂ concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area-averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (ΔF_tree; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether ΔF_tree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage (F_tree; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of ΔF_tree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP-DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, F_tree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% < F_tree < 60%) for IAP-DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4-CNDV. Moreover, ΔF_tree had a stronger dependence on F_tree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO ₂ concentration.

Global patterns and predictors of stem CO2 efflux in forest ecosystems

Stem CO2 efflux (ES) plays an important role in the carbon balance of forest ecosystems. However, its primary controls at the global scale are poorly understood and observation-based global estimates are lacking. We synthesized data from 121 published studies across global forest ecosystems and examined the relationships between annual ES and biotic and abiotic factors at individual, biome, and global scales, and developed a global gridded estimate of annual ES . We tested the following hypotheses: (1) Leaf area index (LAI) will be highly correlated with annual ES at biome and global scales; (2) there will be parallel patterns in stem and root CO2 effluxes (RA) in all forests; (3) annual ES will decline with forest age; and (4) LAI coupled with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) will be sufficient to predict annual ES across forests in different regions. Positive linear relationships were found between ES and LAI, as well as gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), wood NPP, soil CO2 efflux (RS), and RA . Annual ES was correlated with RA in temperate forests after controlling for GPP and MAT, suggesting other additional factors contributed to the relationship. Annual ES tended to decrease with stand age. Leaf area index, MAT and MAP, predicted 74% of variation in ES at global scales. Our statistical model estimated a global annual ES of 6.7 ± 1.1 Pg C yr(-1) over the period of 2000-2012 with little interannual variability. Modeled mean annual ES was 71 ± 43, 270 ± 103, and 420 ± 134 g C m(2) yr(-1) for boreal, temperate, and tropical forests, respectively. We recommend that future studies report ES at a standardized constant temperature, incorporate more manipulative treatments, such as fertilization and drought, and whenever possible, simultaneously measure both aboveground and belowground CO2 fluxes.

After more than a decade of soil moisture deficit, tropical rainforest trees maintain photosynthetic capacity, despite increased leaf respiration

Determining climate change feedbacks from tropical rainforests requires an understanding of how carbon gain through photosynthesis and loss through respiration will be altered. One of the key changes that tropical rainforests may experience under future climate change scenarios is reduced soil moisture availability. In this study we examine if and how both leaf photosynthesis and leaf dark respiration acclimate following more than 12 years of experimental soil moisture deficit, via a through-fall exclusion experiment (TFE) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest. We find that experimentally drought-stressed trees and taxa maintain the same maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity as trees in corresponding control forest, independent of their susceptibility to drought-induced mortality. We hypothesize that photosynthetic capacity is maintained across all treatments and taxa to take advantage of short-lived periods of high moisture availability, when stomatal conductance (gs ) and photosynthesis can increase rapidly, potentially compensating for reduced assimilate supply at other times. Average leaf dark respiration (Rd ) was elevated in the TFE-treated forest trees relative to the control by 28.2 ± 2.8% (mean ± one standard error). This mean Rd value was dominated by a 48.5 ± 3.6% increase in the Rd of drought-sensitive taxa, and likely reflects the need for additional metabolic support required for stress-related repair, and hydraulic or osmotic maintenance processes. Following soil moisture deficit that is maintained for several years, our data suggest that changes in respiration drive greater shifts in the canopy carbon balance, than changes in photosynthetic capacity.

Threshold Responses to Soil Moisture Deficit by Trees and Soil in Tropical Rain Forests: Insights from Field Experiments

Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE) experiments can offer mechanistic insight into the response to extended or severe drought and can be used to help improve model-based simulations, which are currently inadequate. Only eight TFE experiments have been reported for tropical rain forests. We examine them, synthesizing key results and focusing on two processes that have shown threshold behavior in response to drought: (1) tree mortality and (2) the efflux of carbon dioxdie from soil, soil respiration. We show that: (a) where tested using large-scale field experiments, tropical rain forest tree mortality is resistant to long-term soil moisture deficit up to a threshold of 50% of the water that is extractable by vegetation from the soil, but high mortality occurs beyond this value, with evidence from one site of increased autotrophic respiration, and (b) soil respiration reaches its peak value in response to soil moisture at significantly higher soil moisture content for clay-rich soils than for clay-poor soils. This first synthesis of tropical TFE experiments offers the hypothesis that low soil moisture–related thresholds for key stress responses in soil and vegetation may prove to be widely applicable across tropical rain forests despite the diversity of these forests.

Evidence for strong seasonality in the carbon storage and carbon use efficiency of an Amazonian forest

The relative contribution of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration to seasonal changes in the net carbon flux of tropical forests remains poorly quantified by both modelling and field studies. We use data assimilation to combine nine ecological time series from an eastern Amazonian forest, with mass balance constraints from an ecosystem carbon cycle model. The resulting analysis quantifies, with uncertainty estimates, the seasonal changes in the net carbon flux of a tropical rainforest which experiences a pronounced dry season. We show that the carbon accumulation in this forest was four times greater in the dry season than in the wet season and that this was accompanied by a 5% increase in the carbon use efficiency. This seasonal response was caused by a dry season increase in gross primary productivity, in response to radiation and a similar magnitude decrease in heterotrophic respiration, in response to drying soils. The analysis also predicts increased carbon allocation to leaves and wood in the wet season, and greater allocation to fine roots in the dry season. This study demonstrates implementation of seasonal variations in parameters better enables models to simulate observed patterns in data. In particular, we highlight the necessity to simulate the seasonal patterns of heterotrophic respiration to accurately simulate the net carbon flux seasonal tropical forest.

Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees

Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.

Environmental controls of temporal and spatial variability in CO2 and CH4 fluxes in a neotropical peatland

Tropical peatlands play an important role in the global storage and cycling of carbon (C) but information on carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from these systems is sparse, particularly in the Neotropics. We quantified short and long-term temporal and small scale spatial variation in CO2 and CH4 fluxes from three contrasting vegetation communities in a domed ombrotrophic peatland in Panama. There was significant variation in CO2 fluxes among vegetation communities in the order Campnosperma panamensis > Raphia taedigera > Cyperus. There was no consistent variation among sites and no discernible seasonal pattern of CH4 flux despite the considerable range of values recorded (e.g. -1.0 to 12.6 mg m(-2) h(-1) in 2007). CO2 fluxes varied seasonally in 2007, being greatest in drier periods (300-400 mg m(-2) h(-1)) and lowest during the wet period (60-132 mg m(-2) h(-1)) while very high emissions were found during the 2009 wet period, suggesting that peak CO2 fluxes may occur following both low and high rainfall. In contrast, only weak relationships between CH4 flux and rainfall (positive at the C. panamensis site) and solar radiation (negative at the C. panamensis and Cyperus sites) was found. CO2 fluxes showed a diurnal pattern across sites and at the Cyperus sp. site CO2 and CH4 fluxes were positively correlated. The amount of dissolved carbon and nutrients were strong predictors of small scale within-site variability in gas release but the effect was site-specific. We conclude that (i) temporal variability in CO2 was greater than variation among vegetation communities; (ii) rainfall may be a good predictor of CO2 emissions from tropical peatlands but temporal variation in CH4 does not follow seasonal rainfall patterns; and (iii) diurnal variation in CO2 fluxes across different vegetation communities can be described by a Fourier model.

Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.

Variations in atmospheric CO2 growth rates coupled with tropical temperature

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r(2) ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land-surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature-CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r(2) ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh - NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature-CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle.

Sensitivity of temperate desert steppe carbon exchange to seasonal droughts and precipitation variations in Inner Mongolia, China

Arid grassland ecosystems have significant interannual variation in carbon exchange; however, it is unclear how environmental factors influence carbon exchange in different hydrological years. In this study, the eddy covariance technique was used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of CO₂ flux over a temperate desert steppe in Inner Mongolia, China from 2008 to 2010. The amounts and times of precipitation varied significantly throughout the study period. The precipitation in 2009 (186.4 mm) was close to the long-term average (183.9±47.6 mm), while the precipitation in 2008 (136.3 mm) and 2010 (141.3 mm) was approximately a quarter below the long-term average. The temperate desert steppe showed carbon neutrality for atmospheric CO₂ throughout the study period, with a net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) of -7.2, -22.9, and 26.0 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ in 2008, 2009, and 2010, not significantly different from zero. The ecosystem gained more carbon in 2009 compared to other two relatively dry years, while there was significant difference in carbon uptake between 2008 and 2010, although both years recorded similar annual precipitation. The results suggest that summer precipitation is a key factor determining annual NEE. The apparent quantum yield and saturation value of NEE (NEE(sat)) and the temperature sensitivity coefficient of ecosystem respiration (R(eco)) exhibited significant variations. The values of NEE(sat) were -2.6, -2.9, and -1.4 µmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ in 2008, 2009, and 2010, respectively. Drought suppressed both the gross primary production (GPP) and R(eco), and the drought sensitivity of GPP was greater than that of R(eco). The soil water content sensitivity of GPP was high during the dry year of 2008 with limited soil moisture availability. Our results suggest the carbon balance of this temperate desert steppe was not only sensitive to total annual precipitation, but also to its seasonal distribution.

Effect of 7 yr of experimental drought on vegetation dynamics and biomass storage of an eastern Amazonian rainforest

*At least one climate model predicts severe reductions of rainfall over Amazonia during this century. Long-term throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments represent the best available means to investigate the resilience of the Amazon rainforest to such droughts. *Results are presented from a 7 yr TFE study at Caxiuanã National Forest, eastern Amazonia. We focus on the impacts of the drought on tree mortality, wood production and above-ground biomass. *Tree mortality in the TFE plot over the experimental period was 2.5% yr(-1), compared with 1.25% yr(-1) in a nearby control plot experiencing normal rainfall. Differences in stem mortality between plots were greatest in the largest (> 40 cm diameter at breast height (dbh)) size class (4.1% yr(-1) in the TFE and 1.4% yr(-1) in the control). Wood production in the TFE plot was c. 30% lower than in the control plot. Together, these changes resulted in a loss of 37.8 +/- 2.0 Mg carbon (C) ha(-1) in the TFE plot (2002-2008), compared with no change in the control. *These results are remarkably consistent with those from another TFE (at Tapajós National Forest), suggesting that eastern Amazonian forests may respond to prolonged drought in a predictable manner.

Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations

*Second-generation Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have recently been developed that explicitly represent the ecological dynamics of disturbance, vertical competition for light, and succession. Here, we introduce a modified second-generation DGVM and examine how the representation of demographic processes operating at two-dimensional spatial scales not represented by these models can influence predicted community structure, and responses of ecosystems to climate change. *The key demographic processes we investigated were seed advection, seed mixing, sapling survival, competitive exclusion and plant mortality. We varied these parameters in the context of a simulated Amazon rainforest ecosystem containing seven plant functional types (PFTs) that varied along a trade-off surface between growth and the risk of starvation induced mortality. *Varying the five unconstrained parameters generated community structures ranging from monocultures to equal co-dominance of the seven PFTs. When exposed to a climate change scenario, the competing impacts of CO(2) fertilization and increasing plant mortality caused ecosystem biomass to diverge substantially between simulations, with mid-21st century biomass predictions ranging from 1.5 to 27.0 kg C m(-2). *Filtering the results using contemporary observation ranges of biomass, leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) did not substantially constrain the potential outcomes. We conclude that demographic processes represent a large source of uncertainty in DGVM predictions.

Drought impacts on the Amazon forest: the remote sensing perspective

Drought varies spatially and temporally throughout the Amazon basin, challenging efforts to assess ecological impacts via field measurements alone. Remote sensing offers a range of regional insights into drought-mediated changes in cloud cover and rainfall, canopy physiology, and fire. Here, we summarize remote sensing studies of Amazônia which indicate that: fires and burn scars are more common during drought years; hydrological function including floodplain area is significantly affected by drought; and land use affects the sensitivity of the forest to dry conditions and increases fire susceptibility during drought. We highlight two controversial areas of research centering on canopy physiological responses to drought and changes in subcanopy fires during drought. By comparing findings from field and satellite studies, we contend that current remote sensing observations and techniques cannot resolve these controversies using current satellite observations. We conclude that studies integrating multiple lines of evidence from physiological, disturbance-fire, and hydrological remote sensing, as well as field measurements, are critically needed to narrow our uncertainty of basin-level responses to drought and climate change.

Shifts in plant respiration and carbon use efficiency at a large-scale drought experiment in the eastern Amazon

*The effects of drought on the Amazon rainforest are potentially large but remain poorly understood. Here, carbon (C) cycling after 5 yr of a large-scale through-fall exclusion (TFE) experiment excluding about 50% of incident rainfall from an eastern Amazon rainforest was compared with a nearby control plot. *Principal C stocks and fluxes were intensively measured in 2005. Additional minor components were either quantified in later site measurements or derived from the available literature. *Total ecosystem respiration (R(eco)) and total plant C expenditure (PCE, the sum of net primary productivity (NPP) and autotrophic respiration (R(auto))), were elevated on the TFE plot relative to the control. The increase in PCE and R(eco) was mainly caused by a rise in R(auto) from foliage and roots. Heterotrophic respiration did not differ substantially between plots. NPP was 2.4 +/- 1.4 t C ha(-1) yr(-1) lower on the TFE than the control. Ecosystem carbon use efficiency, the proportion of PCE invested in NPP, was lower in the TFE plot (0.24 +/- 0.04) than in the control (0.32 +/- 0.04). *Drought caused by the TFE treatment appeared to drive fundamental shifts in ecosystem C cycling with potentially important consequences for long-term forest C storage.

Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change

*The large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. *Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO(2)) to simulated changes in Amazonian vegetation carbon (C(veg)), in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forced with climate data based on HadCM3 for four SRES scenarios. *Increased temperature was found to be more important than precipitation reduction in causing losses of Amazonian C(veg) in two DGVMs (Hyland and TRIFFID), and as important as precipitation reduction in a third DGVM (LPJ). Increases in plant respiration, direct declines in photosynthesis and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) all contributed to reduce C(veg) under high temperature, but the contribution of each mechanism varied greatly across models. Rising CO(2) mitigated much of the climate-driven biomass losses in the models. *Additional work is required to constrain model behaviour with experimental data under conditions of high temperature and drought. Current models may be overly sensitive to long-term elevated temperatures as they do not account for physiological acclimation.

Responses of Humid Tropical Trees to Rising CO2

Although no mature tropical tree had ever been exposed to an experimentally CO2-enriched atmosphere, evidence from works with seedlings and saplings, theory, models, and proxy data suggest effects on biodiversity and enhanced forest dynamics. Tropical forest carbon stocking is unlikely to increase, given that carbon pool size is driven by tree and patch demography, with tree longevity unlikely to increase. Unlike epiphytes, tropical lianas are likely to play a more important role in a CO2-rich future.

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

The future of the Amazon: new perspectives from climate, ecosystem and social sciences

The potential loss or large-scale degradation of the tropical rainforests has become one of the iconic images of the impacts of twenty-first century environmental change and may be one of our century's most profound legacies. In the Amazon region, the direct threat of deforestation and degradation is now strongly intertwined with an indirect challenge we are just beginning to understand: the possibility of substantial regional drought driven by global climate change. The Amazon region hosts more than half of the world's remaining tropical forests, and some parts have among the greatest concentrations of biodiversity found anywhere on Earth. Overall, the region is estimated to host about a quarter of all global biodiversity. It acts as one of the major ‘flywheels’ of global climate, transpiring water and generating clouds, affecting atmospheric circulation across continents and hemispheres, and storing substantial reserves of biomass and soil carbon. Hence, the ongoing degradation of Amazonia is a threat to local climate stability and a contributor to the global atmospheric climate change crisis. Conversely, the stabilization of Amazonian deforestation and degradation would be an opportunity for local adaptation to climate change, as well as a potential global contributor towards mitigation of climate change. However, addressing deforestation in the Amazon raises substantial challenges in policy, governance, sustainability and economic science. This paper introduces a theme issue dedicated to a multidisciplinary analysis of these challenges.